WEBVTT
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Hello and welcome to this edition of the World Future Energy Summit Podcasts.
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I'm Robin Mills, CEO of Common Energy, and I'm delighted to have with me today Amina Backer, who leads Middle East analysis at Kepler.
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So welcome, Amina.
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We've just been through perhaps still in the middle of a very major unprecedented world energy crisis, which has cast doubt and uncertainty on world energy security, but also taught us a lot, I think, about what's needed for a resilient global energy system.
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Now, you at Kepler have been at the heart of this, of tracking this crisis and helping people find their way through it.
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Perhaps we could start by just telling us a little bit about how what you've been doing at Kepler and how you found yourself in the middle of this crisis.
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Hi, Robin.
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Thank you so much for having me on this podcast.
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And yes, that's right, we've been through very interested, unprecedented times.
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Uh, and being at Kepler, really, we were at the forefront of what was happening in terms of tracking um every vessel, uh flow uh coming out of this region, how this conflict has impacted uh not just the region, but the the globe.
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So we've been tracking uh multiple uh number of uh of trends here and not just being on Hormo's watch per se.
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Um and just to give you a little brief about Kepler, Kepler is a data analytics firm.
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Uh, but we provide something a little bit more than just ship tracking, which Kepler is very famous for, of course.
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Uh we have a research department uh which is growing very rapidly.
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Uh so we just uh give an explanation that's behind the numbers, not just the raw uh data around flows or uh ship tracking.
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We explain what's happening, we have a global uh supply uh balance, and we're also a secondary source to uh the OPEC countries.
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We assess uh production.
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So these are these are some of the things that I do.
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Um, and based out of the Middle East, as you know and said, it's been uh yeah, very busy for us.
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Yeah, and when we talk about tracking, of course, we're talking about flows of crucial energy products for the world.
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So oil and gas, I guess, most prominently, but all kinds of other energy-related commodities, metals, all kinds of things as well, which uh uh I'm sure you've been also keep keeping an eye on.
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Yeah, that's right.
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I mean, it's uh it's commodities across the board.
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So anything that you know uh you could load onto a vessel and and ship, that's what uh Kepler tracks.
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So uh it's it's fertilizers, dry bulk, um, food.
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And uh I mean, we've realized from this crisis, um, Robin, that yes, we always say that, you know, 20 million barrels of uh of uh liquids flows through the Strait of Hermuz, but nobody was talking about fertilizers and how important that was and how developing countries really depend uh on those flows.
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So I think this um conflict made us realize how fragile uh the whole system is, and there is a renewed uh importance towards how to safeguard energy security uh and also food security.
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Yeah, I think that's that's true.
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You say you know how fragile it was indeed, and and it has pointed out all points, all kinds of points of fra fragility, but also I think we learned something about how resilient it is and how adaptable and how companies, countries did manage to find ways around to cope with this crisis.
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Yeah, that's right.
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I mean, uh Robin, I mean, you and I have been covering this energy sector for years and years, and the scenario of Hermuz being uh disrupted or closed has always been there.
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This is something that we've always talked about.
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But um none of us kind of realized that it could actually happen because uh the the scenario we ran was that yes, it could, it's possible that Iran could stop flows, but immediately you would get an intervention from the international community or the US Navy and the strait would be reopened again.
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It didn't happen.
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So we had this prolonged uh outage.
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Um so uh this is something that you know we need to put in our calculations, and this is what we saw in effect and what you're talking about, the resilience and the planning that took place for years uh in advance by countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE uh planning these pipelines that bypass the strait, those came into effect.
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And what we've been tracking is that, I mean, the UAE has been utilizing obviously its pipeline through Fujera at a maximum capacity of uh around 1.8 million barrels a day.
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Same with uh the uh East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia.
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That's been exporting uh 4.5 million barrels a day.
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And I think from from now on, other countries in the region are gonna learn that, you know, you need these contingency plans in place, regardless of what um uh the uh analysts say around, you know, the uh the uh the probability of of something happening or uh the the rare chance that we get uh a um you know an inter international intervention from from Hermuz that opens it.
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But we we've seen the exact opposite.
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This prolonged closure uh needs a plan B.
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And the UAE and Saudi Arabia made those plan B active.
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Uh and I think the rest of the region, this is something that they need to learn.
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Uh contingency plans are incredibly important.
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Yes, absolutely.
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And as you say, you know, this crisis, it wasn't quite what we expected, but I guess the crisis never is what what we what you expect, right?
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Right, you're right.
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Uh I mean over the past even over the past six years, we've seen three all-time global energy security crises, right?
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First the COVID pandemic, which was a a natural disaster of entirely.
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So many black swan events, yeah, you're right.
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Absolutely.
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And then of course Russia-Ukraine, and then uh, and then this this the war in Hormuz uh just uh just now.
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Uh and the global energy system has had a tough time through each of those, um, and but yet it's survived at central suppliers have kept have kept flowing in general.
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Sure, it's been tough on some people, um, but overall the system has survived and and has not broken down.
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Um we've also seen, I think, the importance of companies such as yours in data transparency and and analysis in a way that we never had even a few years ago.
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You know, the eye in the sky that can actually tell us what's happening and provide the input to this kind of modeling.
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Um what are your your your clients and the people that you you serve in these kind of crises?
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What's most important to them?
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What are they asking you for?
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No, of course.
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I mean, they're very interested in uh in flow data and what's happening with Hermuz, um, around, I mean, again, uh insurance rates, uh uh sentiment around.
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I mean, the fact that Hermuz was uh was closed, uh Robin, it it was just around the fact that um it the threat of of these vessels being attacked is enough to stop uh uh a lot of these vessels from exiting the strait.
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So that fear is is what's stopping, it's not an actual gate uh that Iran has put into the strait that stops the the flow.
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So, yes, there's been an increased interest, and not just for my our client base, uh we're finding just you know ordinary people suddenly, you know, talking about Kepler data and and asking what is Kepler and and wanting to know more information.
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So it's kind of trickled into the masses uh because it impacts everybody's lives.
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When you find that, you know, uh you don't have access to LPG if you're you're sitting in in India or your bills are going up if you're sitting in Europe.
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So it impacted all our lives.
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And people were even calculating um, you know, should I go on vacation this year?
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Is there enough jet fuel?
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So when you get to that point, you want to get more access to information and data.
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And this is what we provide at Kepler.
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Yeah, thanks.
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Well, that's a very interesting point, and that kind of makes me think about the um the uh the democratization of that kind of information, as you say, with individual people making decisions.
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I guess also many companies who know we're not so directly involved in the in the energy sector and certainly not in the oil business, um, but still finding out that they needed to know these things to to plan their own their own business because of the the the wide range of commodities products in and out of this region that that were affected.
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Um we've seen over these kind of past three crises that that we addressed, um, obviously oil and gas was a central part of that.
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Um what what have you seen in terms of uh of responses uh in the broader energy energy sphere to these crises?
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Um providers of other forms of energy, has it been uh affecting their business?
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Have that have they been kind of coming to you for solutions?
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Um in terms of uh you mean countries outside of uh of the region or how the the region just generally coped uh in um in in terms of their supply shortage?
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Well I'm thinking really uh countries can be inside or or or outside the region, but what they did in terms of the broader energy sphere, um beyond oil and gas, did they look at other solutions and uh uh what and what did they come to you to kind of to help with?
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Well, uh, I mean, everybody wanted to know really uh what does this mean for the energy transition?
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And does that mean a faster energy transition?
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And obviously, I mean this crisis exposed the fact that the world still needs oil and gas and still relies on oil and gas greatly, and how linked oil and gas is uh to the economy.
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I mean, you can clearly even see uh with even with the United States being now, you know, an energy exporter, not needing energy supplies from this region, it's very important for uh President Trump to keep uh oil prices or more like gasoline prices under check.
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Uh so uh it's um it it it it also exposed how how fragile uh the system is and how reliant it is on oil and gas.
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When it can't can come to the energy transition, yes, it's been picking up, and we've heard that it's been picking up ever since COVID happened.
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Uh, you know, there was kind of that momentum, and then that died out when President Trump kind of the the narrative changed a little bit around uh the energy transition.
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But we've been seeing countries uh saying that, you know, they need to move in parallel.
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Uh they they can't rely on uh on oil and gas.
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So I expect that the energy transition will uh pick up, and I hope that politicians don't have a short memory when it comes to energy security in general.
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And, you know, take this pragmatic approach, which we've seen here in the Gulf, Robin.
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I mean, uh countries here in the Gulf, despite, you know, being um gas and oil rich, have been looking at the energy transition for alternative uh supplies.
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So they've been investing in upstream, but at the same time, uh they have been advancing their energy transition plans.
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And I think this is this is something that needs to happen uh across the board.
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So we have been getting a lot of interest from countries that are outside, exposed, big importers, um asking if uh, you know, they should look at alternative uh sources to uh to ensure their uh energy supplies.
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Yeah, well I think it's an excellent point, look, on the region, as you say, that uh we'll world important oil and gas exporting region, and yes, that suffered some disruption, now getting back on track.
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Um, but also these countries are investing very much in uh other energy forms.
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So the UA, a very successful nuclear power program.
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Um they then throughout the region, if we take the UA, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, you know, all big investors in solar power, in some places wind power um has really really come up enormously over the past few years.
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And some of these countries have been world leaders in the size of their projects and in the and in the very low costs that they've achieved.
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So I th I think I I agree with you with certain more impetus on all of those things over the next few years.
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Um we also again saw challenges in that space, and I think it comes back to your point on the kind of commodities that the region exports.
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Some of those rather maybe overlooked, but they turn out to be important.
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And we learnt about a few of these uh recently.
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So helium, for example.
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Yeah.
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Um the region's a big exporter of helium.
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I had no idea, by the way, that helium was used in MRI machines.
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And when I heard that hospitals uh have been, you know, complaining and not giving people appointments to get their MRIs, because I was wondering why is that?
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And it's because helium is some kind of component.
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So yeah, you just learn a lot from uh how how and Qatar is is producing 30% of the world's helium.
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So that's another fact.
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I mean, it wasn't at the forefront of everybody's uh you know memory or or uh or knowledge, uh, but that's something we found out.
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Such an overlooked commodity, indeed, and yet it turns out to be so crucial for MRIs, as you say, and for chipmaking, and then uh you know feeding into the whole AI revolution.
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Um, that again, uh this this uh this gas that you never would have thought about otherwise.
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Another really interesting one for me was sulfur, right?
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Um, you know, sulfur critical for for uh mining a lot of copper um and nickel for batteries and for electric vehicles and so on.
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So key part of the energy transition.
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Where does sulfur come from?
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Comes from oil and gas processing.
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So another kind of niche product that we wouldn't have thought about.
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And I'm sure again, you were looking at what this does to to all of all that part of the uh the commodity complex.
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Of course, and the fact that I mean just mining and how energy intensive mining is, people kind of overlook that uh, you know, how much energy and when is this where is this energy going to come from?
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So it's either renewables, as you say, it's going back to that loop of uh, you know, needing oil and gas to extract.
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So uh we can't unt underestimate, even in the transition.
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Yeah, for sure.
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I mean, it's been a priority and a strategic priority for a lot of the national oil companies here in uh in the Middle East, since they are um, as you mentioned, low cost, but they also want to be low carbon because they know that this is the future.
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And uh it's very important for them to m uh like make the world aware that their oil is uh going to be remain relevant for for a very, very long time to come, not just because of the cost, because of the low carbon uh element.
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So that makes their barrels even more uh competitive in the market.
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And I think, I mean, initially you would say Europe would demand these barrels compared to other parts of the world that might be less conscious, uh, but I think just globally that's the direction we're moving in.
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And that uh I mean, it's more reason that these barrels are going to survive other barrels that are uh you know higher carbon.
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Yeah, and we have in the past few years we have seen certified low carbon barrels uh or or or shipments of liquefied natural gas into South Korea, Japan, Singapore.
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So there are countries in Asia that that that think this is a very important criteria as well.
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Um and we know you know amongst global oil and gas producers who is low carbon.
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Of course, Norway stands out, but so does the UAE, so does Saudi Arabia as as is really in the in the the top tier for for uh for low emissions and in their production.
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Um that's again, I think an area where this kind of satellite imaging and um and and remote sensing comes in, right, particularly on kind of methane emissions.
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Um that's uh again that that eye in the sky that is keeping track of emissions and and and calling out the uh where that where there's a problem, pointing that out before people maybe on the ground are even aware of it.
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Aaron Powell Yeah, for sure.
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That adds a kind of another layer of uh transparency beyond.
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But where we are right now, uh Robin, I think uh I mean the priority now is uh as we mentioned earlier, it's around energy security.
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Aaron Powell We know the countries that relied very heavily on on renewables or on nuclear power um was to us to some extent shielded, but also those who of course who turned back to coal, uh but unfortunately very very very dirty fuel.
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And that's why we're seeing an expansion in uh all these contingency plans, whether in the UAE building another pipeline that's gonna double the capacity, Saudi Arabia considering doubling down on or increasing the capacity at Yembo, uh other projects in uh in Iraq and so on, reviving these pipelines.
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So accessibility is gonna be key in the future.
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Yes, indeed.
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And this develops these alternative transport routes.
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As you mentioned, that the various pipelines, Ianbo and uh Fajiera, maybe some pipelines out of Iraq.
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I'm sure other countries in the region will look at how they can plug in into those systems uh and be able to track the flows through those will be crucial.
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Um, but also thinking about you know where do you end up with at the at the end of those pipelines?
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Um is that are those the markets that you eventually need to be at, or uh are these long-term routes, or are these simply contingencies or bypasses that you hope you never have to use?
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Uh well it depends on the situation, of course, but we've seen what's uh what's happened.
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Uh I mean the scenario did play out that a disruption is possible.
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Um so yeah, you would hope that you never need them, but it's uh it's it's crucial uh to have at this moment.
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And I mean, you can't expose your your uh your country again.
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I mean, countries like uh Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, uh completely exposed to this uh crisis with limited options, uh, need to look at options.
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Yeah.
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You mentioned accessibility too, and I think energy access has been uh a core theme for for years now and a very important one, um, but maybe still one that it is lagging behind.
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So we talk about access for lower-income people around the world to to reliable modern energy.
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In this current crisis, of course, we've seen that that South Asia was was pretty badly hit early on.
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Yes, I think look, a more diverse energy system will be more resilient for sure.
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Um, and we and we we see different energy forms stepping in when one energy form is is struggling.
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Um, but I I'm not sure that it becomes any any necessarily any less volatile.
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No, I agree with you.
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I mean, it's not going to be dependent just on one source of energy, and we have to, I mean, you have to kind of think about base load, right?
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Uh how are you going to provide your country with with base load throughout the year and then uh the the the intervals that we get seasonality and so on, and then you need to look at storage.
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So all of that is interconnected uh with the with each other.
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So it's it's very hard to say that, you know, uh my country is now energy independent 100% on on one source.
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Uh uh that's why this this diversification or what we call the you know the Gulf strategy of or pragmatism of looking at nuclear, looking at solar, looking at wind, still investing in uh you know gas and oil.
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So that's that's really the way to go.
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So you are going to be exposed uh if something happened, but you're just limiting your exposure.
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Thinking there uh again about the key issue of kind of transport, um obviously took we talked a lot a lot about maritime transport.
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But when we think about the fuels, we we have s the suppliers of jet fuel, of shipping fuel, heavy fuel or of diesel for heavy heavy vehicles around the world.
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And and really I think the crisis ended up hitting probably jet fuel and diesel more than more than petrol or gasoline.
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Um those are uh fuels that your everyday consumer doesn't see too much of, but but that actually drive the global economy.
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And there isn't much of an alternative to as well.
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I mean, if you're looking at alternatives, it's not you're not going to find an easy alternative to these fuels.
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Exactly.
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I think and that's a really crucial point about them, isn't it?
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Um that for petrol, um for light vehicles, electric vehicles have have taken off and are being enormous successes.
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Even in China, yeah, we're seeing kind of a pickup in EVs.
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Yeah.
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And China has been, I think that's a key part of the, we talked a bit about China before, but a key part of their energy security strategy has been a switch to EVs.
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More than half of their new new vehicle sales are EVs now, diminishing the dependence on oil.
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Yeah, and even with EVs, uh Robin, it's it's complicated.
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It's not just uh, you know, bringing in a bunch of EVs.
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You need uh a whole system around that to uh to have EVs in the in the countries, uh the charging stations.
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Uh um so I don't think uh many countries are are equipped for it yet.
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Uh China uh or parts of China might be.
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Uh, but if you're looking at a market like India, for example, it's uh it's a lot more uh complicated.
00:19:22.799 --> 00:19:36.960
Yeah, a huge infrastructure project for for any country that wants to take that on when we talk about putting fast charges all over the place, particularly for if they're talking about heavy vehicles that try and charge buses, trucks, um that that demand a huge amount of charging in in one point.
00:19:37.119 --> 00:19:40.799
Uh and and I think this comes back to a whole question of the of the electrical grid.
00:19:41.119 --> 00:19:43.680
Um how how robust is that?
00:19:43.839 --> 00:19:48.559
How how is it possible to get electrical capacity to certain points to allow for charging?
00:19:48.799 --> 00:19:55.920
Um we've got a hot an energy system, I think, uh, that is becoming increasingly electrified, but electricity is clearly a bottleneck, right?
00:19:56.000 --> 00:20:04.799
If we talk about electric vehicles, we talk about the electrifying industry, and you know, the real hot topic, of course, uh data centers, artificial intelligence, huge consumers of electricity.
00:20:04.960 --> 00:20:08.000
And and we're seeing that as a bottleneck in the US today in building these centers.
00:20:08.480 --> 00:20:08.960
Yeah, for sure.
00:20:09.119 --> 00:20:26.000
I mean, we're seeing these uh even I mean, outside of uh the uh the the the revolution kind of is in the US, but also here in the Middle East, uh the number of data centers growing in in the UAE and Saudi Arabia's ambition of you know growing uh data centers, what's going to power all of these uh data centers?
00:20:26.240 --> 00:20:28.640
But even beyond that, we need more power.
00:20:28.720 --> 00:20:35.599
Uh we underestimate just one uh search on Chat GPT, how much energy that consumes.
00:20:35.680 --> 00:20:44.000
Uh and if we're all doing it, uh this is something, I mean, I don't think uh, you know, to to the normal end user that uh that that that we think about.
00:20:44.079 --> 00:20:51.119
Aaron Powell So indeed it is a huge amount, and that's gonna rely on gas, it's gonna rely on nuclear, it's gonna rely on solar power and batteries, uh, all of those energies.
00:20:51.519 --> 00:21:04.400
And an interconnection, I think the grid is something that you mentioned, and this interconnecting grid between uh countries in the region, I think it's still a very, very important uh uh uh project, and they they need to kind of be focusing on that.
00:21:04.799 --> 00:21:05.440
Yeah, yeah.
00:21:05.599 --> 00:21:12.480
I think this goes to our theme of energy intercon interconnectivity and resilience and robustness, these uh these interconnections.
00:21:12.640 --> 00:21:17.440
The GCC countries are connected, it have a connected electrical grid.
00:21:17.599 --> 00:21:19.519
Um there's a lot more that could be done with that.
00:21:19.599 --> 00:21:21.759
That grid is now reaching out to to Iraq.
00:21:22.000 --> 00:21:24.640
There's a connection to now to Egypt, indeed.
00:21:25.200 --> 00:21:33.839
Um but there's there's I think uh thoughts, concepts of a much wider grid that maybe would tie in South Asia, maybe would link to Europe ultimately, a kind of pan-continental grid.
00:21:34.079 --> 00:21:37.920
I think we often think about the technical dimension of energy security.
00:21:38.160 --> 00:21:42.640
We think about the the economic dimension, a key emerging part of the energy transition as well.
00:21:42.960 --> 00:21:45.920
The energy transition, the rise of other energy forms.
00:21:46.079 --> 00:21:50.160
Some countries are very blessed in wind and solar, who are not blessed in in hydrocarbons.
00:21:50.319 --> 00:21:51.920
Some countries have all of them, right?
00:21:52.079 --> 00:21:59.440
Um, so it is going to change the relative power of countries and their their relative energy security, their their bargaining position in the global economy.
00:21:59.519 --> 00:22:01.680
Um Um there will be some winners.
00:22:01.839 --> 00:22:03.200
Let's hope there aren't some losers.
00:22:03.279 --> 00:22:08.160
But I mean there's certainly some countries for for whom the energy transition is transition is more of a challenge than for others.
00:22:08.720 --> 00:22:09.440
Yeah, for sure.
00:22:09.599 --> 00:22:18.160
And I mean the the the other source, I mean, we didn't talk about this, but it's uh we we briefly said uh the UAE's uh nuclear uh program.
00:22:18.480 --> 00:22:24.400
Uh this is not uh uh you know uh renewable energy, but it's clean uh energy.
00:22:24.559 --> 00:22:32.160
Uh and I think I mean countries in the region, uh including Saudi Arabia, again, they're considering, you know, going into uh nuclear power.
00:22:32.240 --> 00:22:43.359
Uh Egypt, uh, I mean, so this is another option uh if if they're not blessed with uh the wind, solar, and so on, another reliable source.
00:22:43.680 --> 00:22:52.400
It comes with its own set of complexities, of course, and um uh agreements that need to be signed before uh these projects go ahead.
00:22:52.480 --> 00:23:02.640
Uh, but it's uh it's nuclear power, and I think the UAE realized that years uh before, and that's why you know we have 20% of uh power here generated by nuclear.
00:23:03.119 --> 00:23:03.920
Absolutely, yes.
00:23:04.160 --> 00:23:04.400
Yes.
00:23:04.559 --> 00:23:11.200
I think the the value of having a very large, low-carbon base load power um like nuclear has has been proven.
00:23:11.279 --> 00:23:13.200
Not the cheapest form of energy, maybe.
00:23:13.279 --> 00:23:18.640
Um and uh uh and as you say, it brings its its own big technical and political complexities.
00:23:18.720 --> 00:23:22.480
But if you can manage those, it's proved to be a very, very effective source.
00:23:22.559 --> 00:23:24.960
Uh, you know, and and France knew this even from the 70s.
00:23:25.119 --> 00:23:28.240
Of course, that was part of the French response to the energy crisis then.
00:23:28.400 --> 00:23:34.720
Yeah, and it'll be interesting to see how much the the current crisis does lead to a rev a revival of the interest in nuclear power.
00:23:35.039 --> 00:23:35.519
Yeah, for sure.
00:23:36.960 --> 00:23:38.640
How much the US is going to be involved as well.
00:23:39.039 --> 00:23:39.200
Yes.
00:23:40.079 --> 00:23:42.160
And some very interesting technical developments on that front as well.
00:23:42.319 --> 00:23:46.799
Small modular actors, several US startups making good good progress on those.
00:23:47.200 --> 00:23:50.640
We'll we'll see the first first of those deployed around the world, hopefully, the next few years.
00:23:51.039 --> 00:23:52.000
Yeah, for sure.
00:23:52.640 --> 00:23:56.480
So this has been a really you know fascinating conversation, very, very wide, wide-ranging.
00:23:56.640 --> 00:24:07.440
Um, and I think the the the uh the geopolitical events of the of the past few months uh have really made all of us think differently about energy security and uh and energy sustainability.
00:24:07.680 --> 00:24:24.559
We've realized energy sustainability, it is about the environment, it is about emissions, but it's also about meeting the world's need for reliable, affordable energy, meeting the needs of lower income people as well, disadvantaged people making sure they have access to modern energy in good times and and in bad times as well.
00:24:24.880 --> 00:24:32.000
Um so I'd like to like to close with just uh your thoughts on the uh on the nature of that of that transition.
00:24:32.240 --> 00:24:39.359
Um what what are your kind of key takeaways, your key top two or three from this crisis in terms of the energy transition and and sustainability?
00:24:39.920 --> 00:24:48.079
I think the top item of uh I mean uh the things that we learned uh during this conflict is the importance of, again, energy security.
00:24:48.160 --> 00:24:53.119
It's something that hit us during COVID, but I think it's hit even harder uh now.
00:24:53.359 --> 00:25:11.759
And uh I hope, and and I said this before, Robin, that you know, politicians don't have a short memory when uh this uh this crisis is over, they don't go back uh to uh policies that go against uh energy security and affordable uh energy to uh to their populations.
00:25:11.920 --> 00:25:14.720
And I think we just need to see a healthy mix.
00:25:14.960 --> 00:25:37.279
And as far as, I mean, using Kepler data, it's uh it's kind of this crisis has uh shown uh the importance of data uh transparency, uh the importance of uh of knowing, you know, uh how flows work and how alternative and how resilient also the energy system is, because we've been uh surprised, I've been surprised by the price.
00:25:37.680 --> 00:25:39.279
Yes, all great points, I think.
00:25:39.359 --> 00:25:42.160
Indeed, the energy system came under a huge test.
00:25:42.480 --> 00:25:43.920
On the whole, it came through it.
00:25:44.000 --> 00:25:46.480
We didn't run out of energy, we didn't run out of oil.
00:25:46.640 --> 00:25:50.240
Prices were remarkably restrained under the circumstances.
00:25:50.400 --> 00:25:51.359
Um, you know, who knows?
00:25:51.440 --> 00:25:55.759
Had it gone on longer, maybe things would have got worse, but yeah, fingers crossed it it didn't.
00:25:55.920 --> 00:26:00.079
Uh but we've also seen the importance of a diverse energy system.
00:26:00.400 --> 00:26:03.599
And and every country will do that diversity in its own way.
00:26:03.839 --> 00:26:08.480
There are interconnections between them, there's trade between them, moves energy to to where it's needed.
00:26:08.559 --> 00:26:14.000
Uh, and that on the whole has has worked out with some with some strains and uh and challenges, of course.
00:26:14.160 --> 00:26:26.319
Um but on the whole, that more diverse energy system I think has shown to be a more resilient system uh and uh than a kind of a monoculture, as you as you say, whether whether that was oil, gas, coal, renewables.
00:26:26.400 --> 00:26:28.720
I mean the the the blend of those has been very important, I think.
00:26:29.039 --> 00:26:30.559
Yeah, yeah, for sure.
00:26:31.279 --> 00:26:32.640
So thank you very much, Amina.
00:26:32.799 --> 00:26:34.640
You know, fascinating uh conversation.
00:26:34.799 --> 00:26:36.240
Very glad to have you on the show.
00:26:36.400 --> 00:26:58.880
Uh great time to be talking about these issues of energy security, sustainability, uh, as as we look forward to the World Future Energy Summit, which will bring together representatives from the whole energy chain and uh people have all, I think, learned a lot from this crisis and a lot of very useful lessons that will be very helpful in building uh a more diverse and hopefully more secure and sustainable energy system in the future.
00:26:59.440 --> 00:27:01.839
Looking forward to the summit, and yeah, thank you, Robin.
00:27:01.920 --> 00:27:02.559
Thank you for having me.
00:27:02.880 --> 00:27:03.519
Thank you.
00:00:07.519 --> 00:00:11.679
Hello and welcome to this edition of the World Future Energy Summit Podcasts.
00:00:11.759 --> 00:00:18.320
I'm Robin Mills, CEO of Common Energy, and I'm delighted to have with me today Amina Backer, who leads Middle East analysis at Kepler.
00:00:18.480 --> 00:00:19.519
So welcome, Amina.
00:00:20.079 --> 00:00:37.280
We've just been through perhaps still in the middle of a very major unprecedented world energy crisis, which has cast doubt and uncertainty on world energy security, but also taught us a lot, I think, about what's needed for a resilient global energy system.
00:00:37.439 --> 00:00:42.799
Now, you at Kepler have been at the heart of this, of tracking this crisis and helping people find their way through it.
00:00:43.039 --> 00:00:49.439
Perhaps we could start by just telling us a little bit about how what you've been doing at Kepler and how you found yourself in the middle of this crisis.
00:00:49.840 --> 00:00:50.560
Hi, Robin.
00:00:50.640 --> 00:00:52.640
Thank you so much for having me on this podcast.
00:00:52.799 --> 00:00:58.000
And yes, that's right, we've been through very interested, unprecedented times.
00:00:58.159 --> 00:01:15.760
Uh, and being at Kepler, really, we were at the forefront of what was happening in terms of tracking um every vessel, uh flow uh coming out of this region, how this conflict has impacted uh not just the region, but the the globe.
00:01:15.920 --> 00:01:23.280
So we've been tracking uh multiple uh number of uh of trends here and not just being on Hormo's watch per se.
00:01:23.439 --> 00:01:28.959
Um and just to give you a little brief about Kepler, Kepler is a data analytics firm.
00:01:29.040 --> 00:01:35.599
Uh, but we provide something a little bit more than just ship tracking, which Kepler is very famous for, of course.
00:01:35.760 --> 00:01:40.239
Uh we have a research department uh which is growing very rapidly.
00:01:40.319 --> 00:01:49.040
Uh so we just uh give an explanation that's behind the numbers, not just the raw uh data around flows or uh ship tracking.
00:01:49.200 --> 00:01:57.599
We explain what's happening, we have a global uh supply uh balance, and we're also a secondary source to uh the OPEC countries.
00:01:57.680 --> 00:01:59.439
We assess uh production.
00:01:59.680 --> 00:02:02.159
So these are these are some of the things that I do.
00:02:02.319 --> 00:02:08.560
Um, and based out of the Middle East, as you know and said, it's been uh yeah, very busy for us.
00:02:09.039 --> 00:02:13.520
Yeah, and when we talk about tracking, of course, we're talking about flows of crucial energy products for the world.
00:02:13.599 --> 00:02:22.319
So oil and gas, I guess, most prominently, but all kinds of other energy-related commodities, metals, all kinds of things as well, which uh uh I'm sure you've been also keep keeping an eye on.
00:02:22.639 --> 00:02:23.199
Yeah, that's right.
00:02:23.280 --> 00:02:25.439
I mean, it's uh it's commodities across the board.
00:02:25.599 --> 00:02:32.479
So anything that you know uh you could load onto a vessel and and ship, that's what uh Kepler tracks.
00:02:32.639 --> 00:02:37.120
So uh it's it's fertilizers, dry bulk, um, food.
00:02:37.360 --> 00:02:56.240
And uh I mean, we've realized from this crisis, um, Robin, that yes, we always say that, you know, 20 million barrels of uh of uh liquids flows through the Strait of Hermuz, but nobody was talking about fertilizers and how important that was and how developing countries really depend uh on those flows.
00:02:56.400 --> 00:03:11.120
So I think this um conflict made us realize how fragile uh the whole system is, and there is a renewed uh importance towards how to safeguard energy security uh and also food security.
00:03:11.599 --> 00:03:13.120
Yeah, I think that's that's true.
00:03:13.360 --> 00:03:26.719
You say you know how fragile it was indeed, and and it has pointed out all points, all kinds of points of fra fragility, but also I think we learned something about how resilient it is and how adaptable and how companies, countries did manage to find ways around to cope with this crisis.
00:03:27.120 --> 00:03:27.759
Yeah, that's right.
00:03:27.919 --> 00:03:37.759
I mean, uh Robin, I mean, you and I have been covering this energy sector for years and years, and the scenario of Hermuz being uh disrupted or closed has always been there.
00:03:37.840 --> 00:03:39.759
This is something that we've always talked about.
00:03:39.919 --> 00:03:58.319
But um none of us kind of realized that it could actually happen because uh the the scenario we ran was that yes, it could, it's possible that Iran could stop flows, but immediately you would get an intervention from the international community or the US Navy and the strait would be reopened again.
00:03:58.479 --> 00:03:59.360
It didn't happen.
00:03:59.599 --> 00:04:02.639
So we had this prolonged uh outage.
00:04:02.800 --> 00:04:22.480
Um so uh this is something that you know we need to put in our calculations, and this is what we saw in effect and what you're talking about, the resilience and the planning that took place for years uh in advance by countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE uh planning these pipelines that bypass the strait, those came into effect.
00:04:22.560 --> 00:04:31.759
And what we've been tracking is that, I mean, the UAE has been utilizing obviously its pipeline through Fujera at a maximum capacity of uh around 1.8 million barrels a day.
00:04:32.000 --> 00:04:35.519
Same with uh the uh East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia.
00:04:35.680 --> 00:04:39.279
That's been exporting uh 4.5 million barrels a day.
00:04:39.519 --> 00:05:03.439
And I think from from now on, other countries in the region are gonna learn that, you know, you need these contingency plans in place, regardless of what um uh the uh analysts say around, you know, the uh the uh the probability of of something happening or uh the the rare chance that we get uh a um you know an inter international intervention from from Hermuz that opens it.
00:05:03.600 --> 00:05:05.360
But we we've seen the exact opposite.
00:05:05.519 --> 00:05:10.000
This prolonged closure uh needs a plan B.
00:05:10.160 --> 00:05:14.480
And the UAE and Saudi Arabia made those plan B active.
00:05:14.560 --> 00:05:17.839
Uh and I think the rest of the region, this is something that they need to learn.
00:05:17.920 --> 00:05:20.480
Uh contingency plans are incredibly important.
00:05:20.959 --> 00:05:21.680
Yes, absolutely.
00:05:21.759 --> 00:05:27.279
And as you say, you know, this crisis, it wasn't quite what we expected, but I guess the crisis never is what what we what you expect, right?
00:05:27.439 --> 00:05:28.000
Right, you're right.
00:05:28.160 --> 00:05:34.079
Uh I mean over the past even over the past six years, we've seen three all-time global energy security crises, right?
00:05:34.160 --> 00:05:37.040
First the COVID pandemic, which was a a natural disaster of entirely.
00:05:37.360 --> 00:05:38.800
So many black swan events, yeah, you're right.
00:05:39.040 --> 00:05:39.199
Absolutely.
00:05:39.360 --> 00:05:44.160
And then of course Russia-Ukraine, and then uh, and then this this the war in Hormuz uh just uh just now.
00:05:44.319 --> 00:05:52.480
Uh and the global energy system has had a tough time through each of those, um, and but yet it's survived at central suppliers have kept have kept flowing in general.
00:05:52.720 --> 00:05:57.920
Sure, it's been tough on some people, um, but overall the system has survived and and has not broken down.
00:05:58.160 --> 00:06:06.639
Um we've also seen, I think, the importance of companies such as yours in data transparency and and analysis in a way that we never had even a few years ago.
00:06:06.800 --> 00:06:12.319
You know, the eye in the sky that can actually tell us what's happening and provide the input to this kind of modeling.
00:06:12.480 --> 00:06:17.360
Um what are your your your clients and the people that you you serve in these kind of crises?
00:06:17.600 --> 00:06:18.639
What's most important to them?
00:06:19.040 --> 00:06:19.680
What are they asking you for?
00:06:19.920 --> 00:06:20.399
No, of course.
00:06:20.480 --> 00:06:30.399
I mean, they're very interested in uh in flow data and what's happening with Hermuz, um, around, I mean, again, uh insurance rates, uh uh sentiment around.
00:06:30.639 --> 00:06:46.319
I mean, the fact that Hermuz was uh was closed, uh Robin, it it was just around the fact that um it the threat of of these vessels being attacked is enough to stop uh uh a lot of these vessels from exiting the strait.
00:06:46.399 --> 00:06:53.839
So that fear is is what's stopping, it's not an actual gate uh that Iran has put into the strait that stops the the flow.
00:06:54.160 --> 00:07:07.360
So, yes, there's been an increased interest, and not just for my our client base, uh we're finding just you know ordinary people suddenly, you know, talking about Kepler data and and asking what is Kepler and and wanting to know more information.
00:07:07.519 --> 00:07:12.240
So it's kind of trickled into the masses uh because it impacts everybody's lives.
00:07:12.560 --> 00:07:20.319
When you find that, you know, uh you don't have access to LPG if you're you're sitting in in India or your bills are going up if you're sitting in Europe.
00:07:20.480 --> 00:07:22.480
So it impacted all our lives.
00:07:22.560 --> 00:07:26.639
And people were even calculating um, you know, should I go on vacation this year?
00:07:26.800 --> 00:07:28.079
Is there enough jet fuel?
00:07:28.240 --> 00:07:32.879
So when you get to that point, you want to get more access to information and data.
00:07:33.040 --> 00:07:34.800
And this is what we provide at Kepler.
00:07:35.279 --> 00:07:35.759
Yeah, thanks.
00:07:35.839 --> 00:07:43.839
Well, that's a very interesting point, and that kind of makes me think about the um the uh the democratization of that kind of information, as you say, with individual people making decisions.
00:07:44.160 --> 00:08:00.879
I guess also many companies who know we're not so directly involved in the in the energy sector and certainly not in the oil business, um, but still finding out that they needed to know these things to to plan their own their own business because of the the the wide range of commodities products in and out of this region that that were affected.
00:08:01.120 --> 00:08:09.279
Um we've seen over these kind of past three crises that that we addressed, um, obviously oil and gas was a central part of that.
00:08:09.439 --> 00:08:16.800
Um what what have you seen in terms of uh of responses uh in the broader energy energy sphere to these crises?
00:08:17.120 --> 00:08:21.360
Um providers of other forms of energy, has it been uh affecting their business?
00:08:21.439 --> 00:08:23.759
Have that have they been kind of coming to you for solutions?
00:08:24.319 --> 00:08:33.840
Um in terms of uh you mean countries outside of uh of the region or how the the region just generally coped uh in um in in terms of their supply shortage?
00:08:34.240 --> 00:08:46.559
Well I'm thinking really uh countries can be inside or or or outside the region, but what they did in terms of the broader energy sphere, um beyond oil and gas, did they look at other solutions and uh uh what and what did they come to you to kind of to help with?
00:08:47.039 --> 00:08:51.679
Well, uh, I mean, everybody wanted to know really uh what does this mean for the energy transition?
00:08:51.759 --> 00:08:54.000
And does that mean a faster energy transition?
00:08:54.080 --> 00:09:05.120
And obviously, I mean this crisis exposed the fact that the world still needs oil and gas and still relies on oil and gas greatly, and how linked oil and gas is uh to the economy.
00:09:05.279 --> 00:09:22.159
I mean, you can clearly even see uh with even with the United States being now, you know, an energy exporter, not needing energy supplies from this region, it's very important for uh President Trump to keep uh oil prices or more like gasoline prices under check.
00:09:22.399 --> 00:09:31.759
Uh so uh it's um it it it it also exposed how how fragile uh the system is and how reliant it is on oil and gas.
00:09:31.919 --> 00:09:39.200
When it can't can come to the energy transition, yes, it's been picking up, and we've heard that it's been picking up ever since COVID happened.
00:09:39.279 --> 00:09:48.639
Uh, you know, there was kind of that momentum, and then that died out when President Trump kind of the the narrative changed a little bit around uh the energy transition.
00:09:48.799 --> 00:09:54.080
But we've been seeing countries uh saying that, you know, they need to move in parallel.
00:09:54.240 --> 00:09:57.440
Uh they they can't rely on uh on oil and gas.
00:09:57.679 --> 00:10:06.080
So I expect that the energy transition will uh pick up, and I hope that politicians don't have a short memory when it comes to energy security in general.
00:10:06.240 --> 00:10:10.480
And, you know, take this pragmatic approach, which we've seen here in the Gulf, Robin.
00:10:10.639 --> 00:10:20.159
I mean, uh countries here in the Gulf, despite, you know, being um gas and oil rich, have been looking at the energy transition for alternative uh supplies.
00:10:20.320 --> 00:10:26.159
So they've been investing in upstream, but at the same time, uh they have been advancing their energy transition plans.
00:10:26.320 --> 00:10:30.159
And I think this is this is something that needs to happen uh across the board.
00:10:30.320 --> 00:10:44.480
So we have been getting a lot of interest from countries that are outside, exposed, big importers, um asking if uh, you know, they should look at alternative uh sources to uh to ensure their uh energy supplies.
00:10:44.960 --> 00:10:55.600
Yeah, well I think it's an excellent point, look, on the region, as you say, that uh we'll world important oil and gas exporting region, and yes, that suffered some disruption, now getting back on track.
00:10:55.759 --> 00:11:00.399
Um, but also these countries are investing very much in uh other energy forms.
00:11:00.480 --> 00:11:03.200
So the UA, a very successful nuclear power program.
00:11:03.440 --> 00:11:15.279
Um they then throughout the region, if we take the UA, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, you know, all big investors in solar power, in some places wind power um has really really come up enormously over the past few years.
00:11:15.440 --> 00:11:21.679
And some of these countries have been world leaders in the size of their projects and in the and in the very low costs that they've achieved.
00:11:21.840 --> 00:11:28.000
So I th I think I I agree with you with certain more impetus on all of those things over the next few years.
00:11:28.159 --> 00:11:35.120
Um we also again saw challenges in that space, and I think it comes back to your point on the kind of commodities that the region exports.
00:11:35.279 --> 00:11:38.320
Some of those rather maybe overlooked, but they turn out to be important.
00:11:38.480 --> 00:11:40.320
And we learnt about a few of these uh recently.
00:11:40.399 --> 00:11:41.519
So helium, for example.
00:11:41.600 --> 00:11:41.759
Yeah.
00:11:41.840 --> 00:11:43.519
Um the region's a big exporter of helium.
00:11:43.759 --> 00:11:47.120
I had no idea, by the way, that helium was used in MRI machines.
00:11:47.200 --> 00:11:55.519
And when I heard that hospitals uh have been, you know, complaining and not giving people appointments to get their MRIs, because I was wondering why is that?
00:11:55.600 --> 00:11:58.080
And it's because helium is some kind of component.
00:11:58.240 --> 00:12:04.639
So yeah, you just learn a lot from uh how how and Qatar is is producing 30% of the world's helium.
00:12:04.720 --> 00:12:05.840
So that's another fact.
00:12:05.919 --> 00:12:13.840
I mean, it wasn't at the forefront of everybody's uh you know memory or or uh or knowledge, uh, but that's something we found out.
00:12:14.240 --> 00:12:22.480
Such an overlooked commodity, indeed, and yet it turns out to be so crucial for MRIs, as you say, and for chipmaking, and then uh you know feeding into the whole AI revolution.
00:12:22.559 --> 00:12:27.360
Um, that again, uh this this uh this gas that you never would have thought about otherwise.
00:12:27.600 --> 00:12:29.840
Another really interesting one for me was sulfur, right?
00:12:30.159 --> 00:12:36.879
Um, you know, sulfur critical for for uh mining a lot of copper um and nickel for batteries and for electric vehicles and so on.
00:12:37.039 --> 00:12:38.720
So key part of the energy transition.
00:12:38.879 --> 00:12:39.919
Where does sulfur come from?
00:12:40.159 --> 00:12:41.440
Comes from oil and gas processing.
00:12:41.679 --> 00:12:44.000
So another kind of niche product that we wouldn't have thought about.
00:12:44.080 --> 00:12:48.720
And I'm sure again, you were looking at what this does to to all of all that part of the uh the commodity complex.
00:12:49.120 --> 00:12:58.720
Of course, and the fact that I mean just mining and how energy intensive mining is, people kind of overlook that uh, you know, how much energy and when is this where is this energy going to come from?
00:12:58.799 --> 00:13:05.120
So it's either renewables, as you say, it's going back to that loop of uh, you know, needing oil and gas to extract.
00:13:05.200 --> 00:13:08.159
So uh we can't unt underestimate, even in the transition.
00:13:08.480 --> 00:13:09.039
Yeah, for sure.
00:13:09.120 --> 00:13:22.000
I mean, it's been a priority and a strategic priority for a lot of the national oil companies here in uh in the Middle East, since they are um, as you mentioned, low cost, but they also want to be low carbon because they know that this is the future.
00:13:22.159 --> 00:13:36.480
And uh it's very important for them to m uh like make the world aware that their oil is uh going to be remain relevant for for a very, very long time to come, not just because of the cost, because of the low carbon uh element.
00:13:36.799 --> 00:13:40.320
So that makes their barrels even more uh competitive in the market.
00:13:40.399 --> 00:13:52.879
And I think, I mean, initially you would say Europe would demand these barrels compared to other parts of the world that might be less conscious, uh, but I think just globally that's the direction we're moving in.
00:13:53.120 --> 00:14:00.559
And that uh I mean, it's more reason that these barrels are going to survive other barrels that are uh you know higher carbon.
00:14:01.039 --> 00:14:10.159
Yeah, and we have in the past few years we have seen certified low carbon barrels uh or or or shipments of liquefied natural gas into South Korea, Japan, Singapore.
00:14:10.480 --> 00:14:14.799
So there are countries in Asia that that that think this is a very important criteria as well.
00:14:15.039 --> 00:14:18.960
Um and we know you know amongst global oil and gas producers who is low carbon.
00:14:19.120 --> 00:14:28.879
Of course, Norway stands out, but so does the UAE, so does Saudi Arabia as as is really in the in the the top tier for for uh for low emissions and in their production.
00:14:29.120 --> 00:14:37.200
Um that's again, I think an area where this kind of satellite imaging and um and and remote sensing comes in, right, particularly on kind of methane emissions.
00:14:37.360 --> 00:14:47.840
Um that's uh again that that eye in the sky that is keeping track of emissions and and and calling out the uh where that where there's a problem, pointing that out before people maybe on the ground are even aware of it.
00:14:47.919 --> 00:14:48.639
Aaron Powell Yeah, for sure.
00:14:48.720 --> 00:14:52.320
That adds a kind of another layer of uh transparency beyond.
00:14:52.399 --> 00:15:00.240
But where we are right now, uh Robin, I think uh I mean the priority now is uh as we mentioned earlier, it's around energy security.
00:15:00.320 --> 00:15:11.519
Aaron Powell We know the countries that relied very heavily on on renewables or on nuclear power um was to us to some extent shielded, but also those who of course who turned back to coal, uh but unfortunately very very very dirty fuel.
00:15:11.840 --> 00:15:27.440
And that's why we're seeing an expansion in uh all these contingency plans, whether in the UAE building another pipeline that's gonna double the capacity, Saudi Arabia considering doubling down on or increasing the capacity at Yembo, uh other projects in uh in Iraq and so on, reviving these pipelines.
00:15:27.600 --> 00:15:30.559
So accessibility is gonna be key in the future.
00:15:31.120 --> 00:15:32.000
Yes, indeed.
00:15:32.159 --> 00:15:34.399
And this develops these alternative transport routes.
00:15:34.559 --> 00:15:39.600
As you mentioned, that the various pipelines, Ianbo and uh Fajiera, maybe some pipelines out of Iraq.
00:15:39.759 --> 00:15:46.799
I'm sure other countries in the region will look at how they can plug in into those systems uh and be able to track the flows through those will be crucial.
00:15:46.879 --> 00:15:51.120
Um, but also thinking about you know where do you end up with at the at the end of those pipelines?
00:15:51.200 --> 00:16:00.000
Um is that are those the markets that you eventually need to be at, or uh are these long-term routes, or are these simply contingencies or bypasses that you hope you never have to use?
00:16:00.320 --> 00:16:04.559
Uh well it depends on the situation, of course, but we've seen what's uh what's happened.
00:16:04.639 --> 00:16:09.200
Uh I mean the scenario did play out that a disruption is possible.
00:16:09.360 --> 00:16:16.159
Um so yeah, you would hope that you never need them, but it's uh it's it's crucial uh to have at this moment.
00:16:16.240 --> 00:16:19.840
And I mean, you can't expose your your uh your country again.
00:16:19.919 --> 00:16:29.679
I mean, countries like uh Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, uh completely exposed to this uh crisis with limited options, uh, need to look at options.
00:16:30.080 --> 00:16:30.399
Yeah.
00:16:30.639 --> 00:16:39.600
You mentioned accessibility too, and I think energy access has been uh a core theme for for years now and a very important one, um, but maybe still one that it is lagging behind.
00:16:39.679 --> 00:16:45.360
So we talk about access for lower-income people around the world to to reliable modern energy.
00:16:45.600 --> 00:16:50.080
In this current crisis, of course, we've seen that that South Asia was was pretty badly hit early on.
00:16:50.320 --> 00:16:54.080
Yes, I think look, a more diverse energy system will be more resilient for sure.
00:16:54.159 --> 00:16:59.279
Um, and we and we we see different energy forms stepping in when one energy form is is struggling.
00:16:59.360 --> 00:17:02.879
Um, but I I'm not sure that it becomes any any necessarily any less volatile.
00:17:03.279 --> 00:17:04.079
No, I agree with you.
00:17:04.160 --> 00:17:12.319
I mean, it's not going to be dependent just on one source of energy, and we have to, I mean, you have to kind of think about base load, right?
00:17:12.480 --> 00:17:23.920
Uh how are you going to provide your country with with base load throughout the year and then uh the the the intervals that we get seasonality and so on, and then you need to look at storage.
00:17:24.000 --> 00:17:28.000
So all of that is interconnected uh with the with each other.
00:17:28.160 --> 00:17:34.880
So it's it's very hard to say that, you know, uh my country is now energy independent 100% on on one source.
00:17:34.960 --> 00:17:47.039
Uh uh that's why this this diversification or what we call the you know the Gulf strategy of or pragmatism of looking at nuclear, looking at solar, looking at wind, still investing in uh you know gas and oil.
00:17:47.200 --> 00:17:49.119
So that's that's really the way to go.
00:17:49.200 --> 00:17:54.480
So you are going to be exposed uh if something happened, but you're just limiting your exposure.
00:17:55.119 --> 00:18:01.599
Thinking there uh again about the key issue of kind of transport, um obviously took we talked a lot a lot about maritime transport.
00:18:01.839 --> 00:18:10.480
But when we think about the fuels, we we have s the suppliers of jet fuel, of shipping fuel, heavy fuel or of diesel for heavy heavy vehicles around the world.
00:18:10.640 --> 00:18:16.960
And and really I think the crisis ended up hitting probably jet fuel and diesel more than more than petrol or gasoline.
00:18:17.119 --> 00:18:23.680
Um those are uh fuels that your everyday consumer doesn't see too much of, but but that actually drive the global economy.
00:18:24.079 --> 00:18:26.079
And there isn't much of an alternative to as well.
00:18:26.240 --> 00:18:30.880
I mean, if you're looking at alternatives, it's not you're not going to find an easy alternative to these fuels.
00:18:31.359 --> 00:18:31.759
Exactly.
00:18:31.920 --> 00:18:34.400
I think and that's a really crucial point about them, isn't it?
00:18:34.559 --> 00:18:40.720
Um that for petrol, um for light vehicles, electric vehicles have have taken off and are being enormous successes.
00:18:41.119 --> 00:18:43.279
Even in China, yeah, we're seeing kind of a pickup in EVs.
00:18:43.359 --> 00:18:43.440
Yeah.
00:18:43.759 --> 00:18:50.720
And China has been, I think that's a key part of the, we talked a bit about China before, but a key part of their energy security strategy has been a switch to EVs.
00:18:50.960 --> 00:18:55.279
More than half of their new new vehicle sales are EVs now, diminishing the dependence on oil.
00:18:55.599 --> 00:18:58.880
Yeah, and even with EVs, uh Robin, it's it's complicated.
00:18:59.039 --> 00:19:02.640
It's not just uh, you know, bringing in a bunch of EVs.
00:19:02.720 --> 00:19:09.279
You need uh a whole system around that to uh to have EVs in the in the countries, uh the charging stations.
00:19:09.359 --> 00:19:13.680
Uh um so I don't think uh many countries are are equipped for it yet.
00:19:13.839 --> 00:19:16.960
Uh China uh or parts of China might be.
00:19:17.039 --> 00:19:22.319
Uh, but if you're looking at a market like India, for example, it's uh it's a lot more uh complicated.
00:19:22.799 --> 00:19:36.960
Yeah, a huge infrastructure project for for any country that wants to take that on when we talk about putting fast charges all over the place, particularly for if they're talking about heavy vehicles that try and charge buses, trucks, um that that demand a huge amount of charging in in one point.
00:19:37.119 --> 00:19:40.799
Uh and and I think this comes back to a whole question of the of the electrical grid.
00:19:41.119 --> 00:19:43.680
Um how how robust is that?
00:19:43.839 --> 00:19:48.559
How how is it possible to get electrical capacity to certain points to allow for charging?
00:19:48.799 --> 00:19:55.920
Um we've got a hot an energy system, I think, uh, that is becoming increasingly electrified, but electricity is clearly a bottleneck, right?
00:19:56.000 --> 00:20:04.799
If we talk about electric vehicles, we talk about the electrifying industry, and you know, the real hot topic, of course, uh data centers, artificial intelligence, huge consumers of electricity.
00:20:04.960 --> 00:20:08.000
And and we're seeing that as a bottleneck in the US today in building these centers.
00:20:08.480 --> 00:20:08.960
Yeah, for sure.
00:20:09.119 --> 00:20:26.000
I mean, we're seeing these uh even I mean, outside of uh the uh the the the revolution kind of is in the US, but also here in the Middle East, uh the number of data centers growing in in the UAE and Saudi Arabia's ambition of you know growing uh data centers, what's going to power all of these uh data centers?
00:20:26.240 --> 00:20:28.640
But even beyond that, we need more power.
00:20:28.720 --> 00:20:35.599
Uh we underestimate just one uh search on Chat GPT, how much energy that consumes.
00:20:35.680 --> 00:20:44.000
Uh and if we're all doing it, uh this is something, I mean, I don't think uh, you know, to to the normal end user that uh that that that we think about.
00:20:44.079 --> 00:20:51.119
Aaron Powell So indeed it is a huge amount, and that's gonna rely on gas, it's gonna rely on nuclear, it's gonna rely on solar power and batteries, uh, all of those energies.
00:20:51.519 --> 00:21:04.400
And an interconnection, I think the grid is something that you mentioned, and this interconnecting grid between uh countries in the region, I think it's still a very, very important uh uh uh project, and they they need to kind of be focusing on that.
00:21:04.799 --> 00:21:05.440
Yeah, yeah.
00:21:05.599 --> 00:21:12.480
I think this goes to our theme of energy intercon interconnectivity and resilience and robustness, these uh these interconnections.
00:21:12.640 --> 00:21:17.440
The GCC countries are connected, it have a connected electrical grid.
00:21:17.599 --> 00:21:19.519
Um there's a lot more that could be done with that.
00:21:19.599 --> 00:21:21.759
That grid is now reaching out to to Iraq.
00:21:22.000 --> 00:21:24.640
There's a connection to now to Egypt, indeed.
00:21:25.200 --> 00:21:33.839
Um but there's there's I think uh thoughts, concepts of a much wider grid that maybe would tie in South Asia, maybe would link to Europe ultimately, a kind of pan-continental grid.
00:21:34.079 --> 00:21:37.920
I think we often think about the technical dimension of energy security.
00:21:38.160 --> 00:21:42.640
We think about the the economic dimension, a key emerging part of the energy transition as well.
00:21:42.960 --> 00:21:45.920
The energy transition, the rise of other energy forms.
00:21:46.079 --> 00:21:50.160
Some countries are very blessed in wind and solar, who are not blessed in in hydrocarbons.
00:21:50.319 --> 00:21:51.920
Some countries have all of them, right?
00:21:52.079 --> 00:21:59.440
Um, so it is going to change the relative power of countries and their their relative energy security, their their bargaining position in the global economy.
00:21:59.519 --> 00:22:01.680
Um Um there will be some winners.
00:22:01.839 --> 00:22:03.200
Let's hope there aren't some losers.
00:22:03.279 --> 00:22:08.160
But I mean there's certainly some countries for for whom the energy transition is transition is more of a challenge than for others.
00:22:08.720 --> 00:22:09.440
Yeah, for sure.
00:22:09.599 --> 00:22:18.160
And I mean the the the other source, I mean, we didn't talk about this, but it's uh we we briefly said uh the UAE's uh nuclear uh program.
00:22:18.480 --> 00:22:24.400
Uh this is not uh uh you know uh renewable energy, but it's clean uh energy.
00:22:24.559 --> 00:22:32.160
Uh and I think I mean countries in the region, uh including Saudi Arabia, again, they're considering, you know, going into uh nuclear power.
00:22:32.240 --> 00:22:43.359
Uh Egypt, uh, I mean, so this is another option uh if if they're not blessed with uh the wind, solar, and so on, another reliable source.
00:22:43.680 --> 00:22:52.400
It comes with its own set of complexities, of course, and um uh agreements that need to be signed before uh these projects go ahead.
00:22:52.480 --> 00:23:02.640
Uh, but it's uh it's nuclear power, and I think the UAE realized that years uh before, and that's why you know we have 20% of uh power here generated by nuclear.
00:23:03.119 --> 00:23:03.920
Absolutely, yes.
00:23:04.160 --> 00:23:04.400
Yes.
00:23:04.559 --> 00:23:11.200
I think the the value of having a very large, low-carbon base load power um like nuclear has has been proven.
00:23:11.279 --> 00:23:13.200
Not the cheapest form of energy, maybe.
00:23:13.279 --> 00:23:18.640
Um and uh uh and as you say, it brings its its own big technical and political complexities.
00:23:18.720 --> 00:23:22.480
But if you can manage those, it's proved to be a very, very effective source.
00:23:22.559 --> 00:23:24.960
Uh, you know, and and France knew this even from the 70s.
00:23:25.119 --> 00:23:28.240
Of course, that was part of the French response to the energy crisis then.
00:23:28.400 --> 00:23:34.720
Yeah, and it'll be interesting to see how much the the current crisis does lead to a rev a revival of the interest in nuclear power.
00:23:35.039 --> 00:23:35.519
Yeah, for sure.
00:23:36.960 --> 00:23:38.640
How much the US is going to be involved as well.
00:23:39.039 --> 00:23:39.200
Yes.
00:23:40.079 --> 00:23:42.160
And some very interesting technical developments on that front as well.
00:23:42.319 --> 00:23:46.799
Small modular actors, several US startups making good good progress on those.
00:23:47.200 --> 00:23:50.640
We'll we'll see the first first of those deployed around the world, hopefully, the next few years.
00:23:51.039 --> 00:23:52.000
Yeah, for sure.
00:23:52.640 --> 00:23:56.480
So this has been a really you know fascinating conversation, very, very wide, wide-ranging.
00:23:56.640 --> 00:24:07.440
Um, and I think the the the uh the geopolitical events of the of the past few months uh have really made all of us think differently about energy security and uh and energy sustainability.
00:24:07.680 --> 00:24:24.559
We've realized energy sustainability, it is about the environment, it is about emissions, but it's also about meeting the world's need for reliable, affordable energy, meeting the needs of lower income people as well, disadvantaged people making sure they have access to modern energy in good times and and in bad times as well.
00:24:24.880 --> 00:24:32.000
Um so I'd like to like to close with just uh your thoughts on the uh on the nature of that of that transition.
00:24:32.240 --> 00:24:39.359
Um what what are your kind of key takeaways, your key top two or three from this crisis in terms of the energy transition and and sustainability?
00:24:39.920 --> 00:24:48.079
I think the top item of uh I mean uh the things that we learned uh during this conflict is the importance of, again, energy security.
00:24:48.160 --> 00:24:53.119
It's something that hit us during COVID, but I think it's hit even harder uh now.
00:24:53.359 --> 00:25:11.759
And uh I hope, and and I said this before, Robin, that you know, politicians don't have a short memory when uh this uh this crisis is over, they don't go back uh to uh policies that go against uh energy security and affordable uh energy to uh to their populations.
00:25:11.920 --> 00:25:14.720
And I think we just need to see a healthy mix.
00:25:14.960 --> 00:25:37.279
And as far as, I mean, using Kepler data, it's uh it's kind of this crisis has uh shown uh the importance of data uh transparency, uh the importance of uh of knowing, you know, uh how flows work and how alternative and how resilient also the energy system is, because we've been uh surprised, I've been surprised by the price.
00:25:37.680 --> 00:25:39.279
Yes, all great points, I think.
00:25:39.359 --> 00:25:42.160
Indeed, the energy system came under a huge test.
00:25:42.480 --> 00:25:43.920
On the whole, it came through it.
00:25:44.000 --> 00:25:46.480
We didn't run out of energy, we didn't run out of oil.
00:25:46.640 --> 00:25:50.240
Prices were remarkably restrained under the circumstances.
00:25:50.400 --> 00:25:51.359
Um, you know, who knows?
00:25:51.440 --> 00:25:55.759
Had it gone on longer, maybe things would have got worse, but yeah, fingers crossed it it didn't.
00:25:55.920 --> 00:26:00.079
Uh but we've also seen the importance of a diverse energy system.
00:26:00.400 --> 00:26:03.599
And and every country will do that diversity in its own way.
00:26:03.839 --> 00:26:08.480
There are interconnections between them, there's trade between them, moves energy to to where it's needed.
00:26:08.559 --> 00:26:14.000
Uh, and that on the whole has has worked out with some with some strains and uh and challenges, of course.
00:26:14.160 --> 00:26:26.319
Um but on the whole, that more diverse energy system I think has shown to be a more resilient system uh and uh than a kind of a monoculture, as you as you say, whether whether that was oil, gas, coal, renewables.
00:26:26.400 --> 00:26:28.720
I mean the the the blend of those has been very important, I think.
00:26:29.039 --> 00:26:30.559
Yeah, yeah, for sure.
00:26:31.279 --> 00:26:32.640
So thank you very much, Amina.
00:26:32.799 --> 00:26:34.640
You know, fascinating uh conversation.
00:26:34.799 --> 00:26:36.240
Very glad to have you on the show.
00:26:36.400 --> 00:26:58.880
Uh great time to be talking about these issues of energy security, sustainability, uh, as as we look forward to the World Future Energy Summit, which will bring together representatives from the whole energy chain and uh people have all, I think, learned a lot from this crisis and a lot of very useful lessons that will be very helpful in building uh a more diverse and hopefully more secure and sustainable energy system in the future.
00:26:59.440 --> 00:27:01.839
Looking forward to the summit, and yeah, thank you, Robin.
00:27:01.920 --> 00:27:02.559
Thank you for having me.
00:27:02.880 --> 00:27:03.519
Thank you.
