ABOUT THIS EPISODE
Summary:
A division can tell you what the league is becoming, and the Atlantic might be the clearest mirror we’ve got. We sit down with the numbers and the context to make win total calls that actually make sense, starting with a Brooklyn Nets rebuild that tries to speed-run relevance with Michael Porter Jr, Julius Randle, and a rookie creator in Mikel Brown Jr. We talk about why Brooklyn’s efficiency craters where it does, what happens when your best scorer stops getting easy looks, and why DayRon Sharpe is suddenly one of the biggest swing factors in the entire division.
Then we cross the border to Toronto, where the Raptors make a massive Kawhi Leonard bet and somehow the line barely moves. We break down what Kawhi still brings as a late-clock closer, why Scottie Barnes’ growth matters more than raw points, and how Immanuel Quickley and Colin Murray Boyles shape the floor and the playoff ceiling. The big question is simple: are you betting on the player, or betting on the availability?
Philadelphia brings the chaos. The roster looks like the Avengers, but the usage math adds up to 146 percent, which means somebody’s game has to shrink. We dig into Joel Embiid’s health, LeBron James at 42 and what style he’ll accept, Jalen Brown’s isolation gravity, and Tyrese Maxey’s importance to keeping the whole machine fast and functional. We close with Boston’s cost-cutting tension after a seismic trade, and the New York Knicks trying to repeat with a championship core that still has answers for every problem.
Subscribe for more division previews, share this with your favorite NBA sicko, and if you disagree with our over under calls, leave a review and tell us which number you’re smashing and why.
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Chapters
00:00:00 - Atlantic Division Setup And Socials
00:04:51 - Brooklyn Starts At The Bottom
00:09:01 - Why The Nets Cannot Score
00:09:23 - Michael Porter Jr Gets All Attention
00:12:00 - Julius Randle Fit And Timeline
00:16:13 - DayRon Sharpe As Sole Anchor
00:18:26 - Mikel Brown Jr Rookie Upside
00:25:23 - Nets Picks And Win Total Call
00:27:39 - Raptors Swing Big For Kawhi
00:34:53 - Barnes Quickly And Playoff Growth
00:40:07 - Raptors Over Under Keys
00:45:05 - Sixers Build The Avengers Lineup
00:52:45 - LeBron Role And Style Concerns
00:59:32 - The 146 Percent Usage Problem
01:03:38 - Sixers Win Total And Fan Question
01:05:14 - Celtics Trade Brown And Cut Costs
01:13:18 - Tatum Return And Rotation Questions
01:19:26 - Celtics Win Total Under Call
01:19:36 - Knicks Championship Core Returns
01:24:11 - Towns Defense OG Magic And Depth
01:28:20 - Knicks Over Call And East Outlook
01:30:31 - Wrap Up And Closing Message
IN THIS EPISODE
SHOW NOTES 🔗
TRANSCRIPT 🔗
00:00:17.199 --> 00:00:20.480
Air and let's get into today's pot.
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We will be breaking down the Atlantic division today, and I'm excited about it personally.
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Um, we're gonna start off with a team that went 20 and 62 and still ended up with a non-top five draft pick, deals with the team that is from the Great North, and then we'll throw in a couple numbers that make no sense whatsoever because I don't know how you get to 146%, but I'll explain how that works in the city of Brotherly Love.
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16 is the number in Boston that we need to talk about, and we'll get to that and what that actually means, and what it means to the franchise, what it means to the fan base, and then we will go to Gotham and uh we will see the number there is nine.
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Five teams, one division, the Atlantic, one of the toughest divisions in all of basketball this year.
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Now, here's the thing we did not wing this, we crunched the numbers, the crew was all over it.
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Our producer Jordan, she was uh killing it.
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Um, we uh scoured over a bunch of numbers and what have you.
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We have our social media people and also our graphics designer making up cards that go out for the social media.
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And if you are not with us on TikTok and IG and X, get down with this.
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Uh on X it's frontrunner PC, so at front runner PC on IG it's frpc Vince and on X or until on Twitter and to the on X Twitter, the other thing that I'm new to is the Tiki Tox.
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Yeah, I call them the Tiki Tox.
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Alright, I'm old.
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I can say whatever the hell I want now.
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I'm on a new level at this point, so yeah, get with us on TikTok, and that's also FRPC Vince.
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We will be glad to have you uh make your voices heard.
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We want to be able to hear you, we want to be able to use some of your feedback on the on the pod as well, and talk to you directly.
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So that's the whole thing.
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So we did that, we crunched the numbers, thalks overtakes.
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You know how it is here, it's the standard, it's not it's a way of life here, so it's not about flipping a coin, it's about what we actually believe, and we will get you the win totals of the teams in the Atlantic Division.
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So we're in zone coverage, it's the Atlantic Division, and let's go.
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This is where we will talk like friends, we might argue like cousins, and still walk out smarter than we came in.
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I am your host, Vince, your occasional hoop therapist, your absolute favorite bad influence when it comes to completely reckless NBA overreactions that low-key make perfect sense.
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We are actually going to not get in the film room, but we crunch the numbers for you today.
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We're gonna have grown conversations about how players, coaches, and the front office are actually moving, who's writing the blank checks, and what is all the drama in the locker room, the PR spin, and we will have actual verify receipts.
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So we will be bringing the jokes, the advanced math, and the exact barbershop memo that you come to know and love and appreciate from Frontrunner Podcast Collective that you can take straight back to your group chats and completely nuke the argument.
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If you're an NBA sicko like me, who wants more than a highlight talk?
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If you want some context, you want numbers that support your point, you come to the right place.
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This is FRPC, and let's go.
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We will we are going to continue our series with the Atlantic division.
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We will go from basically worst to first, that type of thing.
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And what we'll be looking at at first is the Brooklyn Nets.
00:05:04.399 --> 00:05:07.759
Now, they are at the bottom of the division last year.
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They won 20 games, they lost 62, and somehow ended up with a pick outside the top five.
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The Nets are uh at the top here at the Atlantic division that we're gonna talk about.
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Uh, they're coming off an extremely uh forgettable year.
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Okay, they have one of the lowest uh win totals on the books, which is like 24 and a half, uh second lowest in the league.
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Now they've added Julius Randle, they drafted Mikel Brown Jr., who I actually I absolutely like.
00:05:46.160 --> 00:05:49.920
Uh obviously, hopefully they can get Michael Porter Jr.
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to play more than the the amount of games he played last year.
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So first and foremost, again, they have the the books in Vegas aren't very happy with them.
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24 and a half wins, only Sacramento has a lower win total probability.
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Uh coming off a year where they again they had 20 wins last year.
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The the things that we need to talk about is this.
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These are the numbers that make they're gonna make some sense to you.
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They were 30th when it came to paint field goal percentage, which is 55.3.
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They were 28th in mid-range uh percentage at 37.1, and they were 30th in three-point percentage at 34%.
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That translation is that they couldn't finish, they couldn't they couldn't space, and guess what?
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More changes happened.
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Like Nick Claxton getting out of town, and Jay Dayron Sharp is going to be the center.
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Now D.
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Ron Sharp is getting a uh just a perennial backup.
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Uh he is a plus 0.4 per 100 possessions with him on the floor.
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Without him, they are negative nine.
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So hopefully this will help.
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Now, they also have the first the five first-round draft picks from last year, and I want to get into this a little bit.
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So they have Drake Powell, who his box plus minus was negative six, Nolan Treori, the kid from France last year, he had a box plus minus of negative six point eight.
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Ben Saraph, who I think is gonna end up being a player somehow, some way in this league.
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He had a box plus minus of negative 7.3, and Danny Wolf, who is the seven-footer who can pass the ball, or supposedly pass the ball, he had a negative 2.5.
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Only Egar Dem uh how they say it, Eggard Demon.
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I'm gonna butcher that name for a while.
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I need to get the pronunciation correct.
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But he had a negative 1.6, uh, he got all rookie votes, so he was the shining light of the five first-round draft picks they had.
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And let me tell you something.
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If this guy is the one guy that turns out to be a player, that's a bad draft.
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You know, I'm hoping that Drake Powell, Nolan Treori, or Ben Sarah really kick off something.
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I think Danny Wolf will actually end up being a backup big somehow that can uh stretch the floor a little bit, but they need to get something out of these uh five players if they're gonna make any sort of run towards a better record than they had last year.
00:09:01.919 --> 00:09:08.960
We already talked about that Nick Claxton's gone, so with him is his 11.7 points and his 6.9 rebounds.
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They're now in Chicago, and the Nets draft class being as terrible as it was might have a lot to do with the next guy we're gonna talk about, which is Michael Porter Jr.
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Michael Porter Jr.
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last year scored about 24.2 points a game.
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Now his usage went from 20.2% to 30.5%.
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As we told you last year, remember there was uh they had Thomas and they had Porter, and I was like, Porter is now free from Denver, so he's gonna take a lot of shots, and he did do so.
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My man was out here shooting for sure, for sure.
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His true shooters percentage slipped from uh 61.7% to 59.5, so not a bad dip for somebody who was handling the ball and shooting the ball a lot.
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His assist rate doubled though, it went from 8.7% to 18.2%, which is great.
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Now, he only had 9% of his threes that were absolutely wide open.
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I know that was a culture shock for him being on a team with Jokic, Murray, and Gordon for as many years as he was.
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To see that situation happen to him must have been just eye-opening.
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It was like, oh yeah, you're the first dude on the whiteboard now, Mr.
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Porter Jr.
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Just so you know.
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Now that might change with the little help that he got, and we'll get to that guy in a second.
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But Michael Porter Jr., be careful for what you asked for.
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You wanted the ball, you wanted more shots.
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Guess what, my man?
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You got all the shots you want.
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But what comes with that is a lot of attention from the other team.
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A scout that I talked to, um, this is in the from the Southeast, you see, he said he studied him for years.
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The question isn't whether Porter can score, it's whether Brooklyn can get him to get a clean look.
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And obviously that had a lot to do with the five the five first-round draft choices that they had last year.
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None of those guys really popped off, which was a tough scene.
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So if you don't have Cam Thomas and listen, Cam Thomas wasn't gonna pass to Michael Porter Jr.
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unless it was like a last second shot, and he didn't have a good look at it.
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Those two were just battling for shots.
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Now, Denver Porter was a Audi, and Brooklyn Porter was an inny, so that's a severance take.
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Let's check his availability for the last four years.
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Here's the thing it's gone up 52, 62, 81, 77 over the last four years.
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Our guy Julius Randle.
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Now, Julius Randle returns to New York not as a conquering hero, because he's on the other side of the bridge.
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He's in Brooklyn, he's not with the Knicks.
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Now, what he brings with him is his 21.1 points a game, his almost seven rebounds, his five assists, and this dude posts.
00:12:24.879 --> 00:12:31.200
And what I mean by that is that he comes to play, he played in 79 games in Minnesota last year.
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His true shooting percentage was uh 58.5%, and he had a box plus minus of positive 1.5.
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Now the decline is real.
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The rebound rate has gone from 15.4% to 11.2% since his all-star appearance in 2023, 2022-2023 season, his three-point shot, uh, is down to thirty-one point five percent on four and a half tries.
00:13:01.360 --> 00:13:24.080
Now, I'm not here to shit on Julius Randle because there was also some things in uh in Minnesota that weren't as good either, but he was the second guy to Anthony Edwards, and being that second guy to Anthony Edwards was had an important role.
00:13:24.240 --> 00:13:43.120
So you might have lost some things in some of the stats as far as that's concerned, but you pres you with your almost 22 points a game, and being playing effective defense, um, and providing a outlet for Anthony Edwards was crucial.
00:13:43.200 --> 00:14:04.720
Now, some of those shots weren't as good as maybe they could have been with like a more diverse team as far as ball handling is concerned, and being able to find you in the right spots, but you handled your business well, and like I said, your true shooting percentage went from like 61.7 to 58.5, not bad.
00:14:05.120 --> 00:14:10.320
Now, he was uh fourth and assist on threes over the last seven years.
00:14:10.399 --> 00:14:16.000
Only Jokic and Giannis Anta Tacumpo and Luka Doncic are ahead of him.
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That's a good stat to know.
00:14:18.399 --> 00:14:26.000
Now, if Brooklyn can shoot some threes this year, which and uh listen, this is outside of Michael Porter Jr.
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We know he can shoot some threes, he's a dead eye shooter.
00:14:29.840 --> 00:14:32.080
We're talking about the other dudes.
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Okay, the other dudes.
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So I think he and uh Michael Porter Jr.
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will make a good tandem and kind of be the they'll be the basically the buoy in the water that will keep Brooklyn afloat and keep them somewhat competitive in these games.
00:14:55.279 --> 00:15:11.039
Now his playoff games that's another thing to talk about, and the reason why we bring it up is this Do we do we believe that Julius Randle is in Brooklyn for the long haul?
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Or is he just there until the early part of February, late part of January?
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It's a question to ask.
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Cause here's the numbers in the playoffs 12 playoff games, PER 10.6, not great, true shooting percentage 47.9.
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Small sample size, but it was the last thing we saw.
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He turns 32 November 29th.
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That also tells you why I'm thinking what I'm thinking when it comes to Julius Randle.
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I think what you're gonna see is that he's gonna be the facilitator that Porter needed last year that he they did not get from one of the first with the five first-round draft picks that they had.
00:15:57.840 --> 00:16:02.159
Um, you got two high usage forage and no rim protection.
00:16:02.399 --> 00:16:07.519
That does not go well for their outcome as far as what they're gonna look like this year.
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Keep your passers close and your shooters closer, man, because these dudes gonna get up shots.
00:16:13.759 --> 00:16:17.840
Now, the rim protection falls to Dayron Sharp.
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Now, we will see how this works, but in 18.7 minutes, his PER was 20.5.
00:16:26.639 --> 00:16:29.919
He had a true shooting percentage of 63.8.
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Now, per 36 minutes, he averaged 16.7 points a game and 12.9 rebounds.
00:16:36.639 --> 00:16:38.879
That's crazy production.
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That's our math, that's us getting in, you know, we get into the crates, man, over here at FRPC.
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The only one of five players to hit 15, 12, and 36 uh in thir per 36 in each of his last three seasons.
00:16:56.240 --> 00:17:02.159
Now, some of the warts on Day Ron Sharp, he has a 20% turnover rate.
00:17:02.399 --> 00:17:10.960
He's only 67.8 from the free throw line, and his block rate went from 4.6 to 2.1.
00:17:11.279 --> 00:17:15.839
He only had seven starts last year, so this is gonna be a whole new world for our guy.
00:17:16.079 --> 00:17:17.839
So we'll see how it all goes.
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And with Claxton gone, you know, it's him and Danny Wolf that are manning the uh rim.
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Good luck to Brooklyn.
00:17:28.480 --> 00:17:31.359
Listen, it's gonna be a slow build in Brooklyn.
00:17:31.440 --> 00:17:33.279
It's gonna be a slow build.
00:17:34.000 --> 00:17:40.079
Analytics director from another team said this it's the easiest raise on that roster, sharp's minutes.
00:17:40.319 --> 00:17:44.559
Sharp is the only net with a with a positive on-off.
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Naturally, he starts seven games.
00:17:47.680 --> 00:17:52.240
So they kind of like the his ability.
00:17:52.480 --> 00:17:58.079
They think that you know, with giving more minutes, his productivity will go up.
00:17:58.240 --> 00:18:01.599
I am I am dubious on that.
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I'm not saying that it won't go up.
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I don't know if the efficiency will actually stay the same with more minutes because you're gonna have a expanded role, my guy.
00:18:12.240 --> 00:18:17.359
You're gonna be the lone rim protector, you're definitely gonna be the rebounder.
00:18:17.839 --> 00:18:26.240
Um now Julius will help you with that, and maybe them as a tandem being like a bruiser when it comes to that will be helpful.
00:18:26.480 --> 00:18:34.720
Now, another guy who will help them, it's kind of funny that they ended up with another guard, is Mikhail Brown Jr.
00:18:34.960 --> 00:18:42.000
Hey, if you fail one year in the lottery, God dogged it, pick some more.
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If you can't get a bucket from the five guys that you got last year, go out and draft another one.
00:18:50.640 --> 00:18:52.079
And Mikhail Brown Jr.
00:18:52.240 --> 00:18:58.160
comes from Louisville, he was the sixth overall pick in the 2026 uh NBA draft.
00:18:58.319 --> 00:19:07.200
He is 6'5, he averaged 18.2 points a game, he had 3.3 rebounds and almost five assists at 4.7.
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Now he only played in 21 games because he had an injury.
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Now the numbers will not look great.
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Okay, he only shot 41% from the field, he shot 34.4% from three, but here's the saving grace.
00:19:23.440 --> 00:19:27.279
He shot 84.4% from the free throw line.
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So that tells me right now that that 34% might have a lot to do with the injury situation and not with that man's touch.
00:19:36.079 --> 00:19:38.400
He shoots 84% from the free throw line.
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So I'm good there.
00:19:40.160 --> 00:19:57.279
Now, do through December 13th, this was his numbers 16.6 points a game on 38% shooting, 27% from the three-point line, and 84% from the free throw line.
00:19:57.440 --> 00:19:59.440
Now he missed eight games.
00:19:59.920 --> 00:20:05.119
Check this out from January 24th to February 23rd.
00:20:05.359 --> 00:20:09.839
This is what he put up, and I think this is more indicative of who he is.
00:20:10.559 --> 00:20:16.319
21.1 points a game on 45% shooting overall.
00:20:16.880 --> 00:20:18.079
Check this out.
00:20:18.480 --> 00:20:25.200
43% from three-point land and 85% from free throw line.
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He had a 45-point game against NC State, where he went 10 of 16 from the land of three.
00:20:33.119 --> 00:20:34.880
He re-heard his back late.
00:20:34.960 --> 00:20:39.519
He missed the ACC and the um March Madness tournament.
00:20:40.240 --> 00:20:41.359
I love this kid.
00:20:41.440 --> 00:20:43.359
I think this kid is going to be good.
00:20:43.440 --> 00:20:45.200
It's just the injury bug.
00:20:45.440 --> 00:20:48.319
His playmaking was uh outstanding.
00:20:48.559 --> 00:21:01.759
He was uh he had a 30.3 assist rate, which was fourth among freshmen in the NCAA last year, and he had a box plus minus of positive five.
00:21:02.000 --> 00:21:04.000
Just telling you, I love this kid.
00:21:04.559 --> 00:21:13.200
One scout who's tracking this class head, he's a he's a creator who's better making his own shot than catching and shooting.
00:21:13.359 --> 00:21:25.039
So my man likes to get into his dribble package, he likes to do his James Harden Um clone type situation and go ahead and really get into his back.
00:21:26.000 --> 00:21:30.000
Now, the buggable is the injury.
00:21:30.160 --> 00:21:32.799
Is this a is this a lingering situation?
00:21:33.039 --> 00:21:37.759
Is this something that we're gonna have to deal with on a year-to-year basis?
00:21:38.079 --> 00:21:42.880
Now he's thin, he's 190 pounds, so he should fill out a little bit more.
00:21:43.200 --> 00:21:47.119
But 190 is not that terrible at 6'5.
00:21:47.440 --> 00:21:59.759
I mean, yeah, you would love for him to be like Brandon uh or Braden Burries from uh Milwaukee, where that dude was six foot four and like 210 pounds, that'd be great, but he's not that.
00:22:00.319 --> 00:22:03.279
So he's gonna have to put on weight in Brooklyn.
00:22:03.519 --> 00:22:05.519
We will see how that works out.
00:22:05.759 --> 00:22:17.680
Now his um efficiency should get better because his shot selection should get better because he will be playing with Julius Randle and Michael Porter Jr.
00:22:18.000 --> 00:22:22.880
Those three guys are gonna be pretty much the hope to space the floor out.
00:22:23.119 --> 00:22:33.279
Now, Dayron Sharp is not the guy that is going to post up and you know say, okay, hey, get me the ball in the low post.
00:22:33.759 --> 00:22:35.119
I'm gonna go ahead and work.
00:22:35.279 --> 00:22:36.880
That is not his situation.
00:22:38.000 --> 00:22:39.599
Screen and roll, my guy.
00:22:39.680 --> 00:22:40.960
That's your deal.
00:22:41.599 --> 00:22:57.680
What we're hoping to see is either Igor Demon or Nolan Treori or Ben Seraph come to the forefront and help one of these guys out.
00:22:58.640 --> 00:22:59.519
You know what I'm saying?
00:22:59.680 --> 00:23:00.720
You need more help.
00:23:00.799 --> 00:23:07.920
One of those couple of those guys need to hit from that draft class of 2025, and that's all there is to it.
00:23:08.079 --> 00:23:11.440
But Mikel Brown Jr., Michael Porter Jr.
00:23:11.599 --> 00:23:21.200
and Julius Randle as far as spacing and uh offensive creation should kind of anchor that team.
00:23:21.759 --> 00:23:40.880
Now, the keys for them to go over this year, over their total, Porter plays 70 plus game, sharp plays more than 26 minutes a game, and Randall turns quarters 9% wide open rate into something more respectable and real.
00:23:41.920 --> 00:23:44.559
Now, why they don't go over?
00:23:44.880 --> 00:23:58.559
You got two high usage forwards, no real protection, you have six young players that had a box plus minus of anywhere from negative one point six to negative seven point three.
00:24:00.000 --> 00:24:02.160
Is Mikel Brown Jr.
00:24:02.720 --> 00:24:05.440
going to be an effective guard right off the bat?
00:24:05.680 --> 00:24:08.880
Usually the history tells us no, right?
00:24:08.960 --> 00:24:11.359
It tells us that it doesn't happen that way.
00:24:13.039 --> 00:24:19.599
Sharks minutes are are there, but do they amount to anything?
00:24:20.319 --> 00:24:22.880
I think the focus for the fans is this.
00:24:23.759 --> 00:24:36.240
Concentrate on the young players, which one of the five or two, hopefully two or three of the five, pop off, right, from last year's draft class, and then what does Mikhail Brown Jr.
00:24:36.480 --> 00:24:36.960
look like?
00:24:37.279 --> 00:24:50.000
You are about your youth movement, and then you will have your eyes stuck upon early February, where there might be a trade, whether it's Michael Porter Jr.
00:24:50.319 --> 00:25:06.799
or whether it's Julius Randle that will hopefully bring you something back that helps you build upon the future that you're laying in Brooklyn while the Knicks continue to eat up all the headlines and become basically New York's well, they are New York's team.
00:25:06.960 --> 00:25:13.759
You are playing for I don't even know if you're playing for second place right now, and I'm not trying to be disrespectful.
00:25:14.319 --> 00:25:18.160
Brooklyn really needs to move back to New Jersey for show.
00:25:18.960 --> 00:25:19.680
For sure.
00:25:19.920 --> 00:25:22.960
I am I am 100% positive on that.
00:25:23.359 --> 00:25:25.519
Now, do they have picks?
00:25:25.680 --> 00:25:26.480
Yes, they do.
00:25:26.559 --> 00:25:30.240
They actually got next picks, which aren't going to be great.
00:25:30.480 --> 00:25:33.440
They got their own pick, but they got next picks too.
00:25:33.680 --> 00:25:38.240
Uh 2027, 2029, and 2031 first.
00:25:38.799 --> 00:25:41.920
They also have a Denver first of 2032.
00:25:42.400 --> 00:25:48.559
They have uh Houston holds swap rights on the next on the Nets pick for 2027.
00:25:48.720 --> 00:25:50.160
So here's the thing.
00:25:51.440 --> 00:25:58.799
Houston could be looking at something pretty tasty when it comes to this year's draft.
00:25:59.039 --> 00:26:02.480
That that freaking sucks for the Nets.
00:26:03.200 --> 00:26:05.680
I think that was that was part of the Harden deal.
00:26:05.839 --> 00:26:06.400
Remember that?
00:26:06.480 --> 00:26:17.759
Remember when James Harden kind of ate his way out of Houston and then kind of emoed his way out of Brooklyn?
00:26:18.000 --> 00:26:21.359
Yeah, the 2027 pick is gonna come back to haunt him.
00:26:22.160 --> 00:26:25.440
Now, you would say, well, Ark, I think the call is this.
00:26:25.519 --> 00:26:26.559
I hate to say it.
00:26:26.799 --> 00:26:41.359
I think they're probably going to go slightly over their 24 and a half uh win win total that uh I think is uh draft DraftKings has put out for them.
00:26:41.759 --> 00:26:43.200
Actually, no, this is FanDuel.
00:26:43.359 --> 00:26:44.079
I apologize.
00:26:44.319 --> 00:26:49.039
FanDuel quotes out 24 24 and a half win total over under.
00:26:49.279 --> 00:26:54.160
I think they might beat it by like one and a half games, 26 wins.
00:26:54.480 --> 00:26:57.680
I don't think that the combination of Porter Jr.
00:26:57.759 --> 00:27:01.119
and and Julius Randle will amount to a lot.
00:27:01.359 --> 00:27:10.880
I think as Julius starts to age, he needs to fall into a more um complimentary role instead of being like a primary type of guy.
00:27:11.200 --> 00:27:21.279
And I think uh unless one of the or two of the guys from their last two draft cap uh class pop off, this is gonna be a tough season.
00:27:21.440 --> 00:27:24.640
So that means that pick is gonna end up in Houston.
00:27:25.920 --> 00:27:32.880
So we're looking for them to go to 26 and 56.
00:27:33.599 --> 00:27:34.000
Right?
00:27:34.160 --> 00:27:36.160
Yep, 26 and 56.
00:27:36.640 --> 00:27:39.440
We need to go uh across the border.
00:27:39.599 --> 00:27:41.200
We need to go to Toronto.
00:27:41.440 --> 00:27:42.960
What's happening in Toronto?
00:27:43.119 --> 00:27:44.000
A couple things.
00:27:44.160 --> 00:27:52.960
They won 46 games last year, they lost in game seven um to Cleveland.
00:27:53.920 --> 00:28:02.319
They traded Brandon Ingram and Grady Dick to the Los Angeles Clippers for Kawhi Leonard on last year's numbers.
00:28:02.400 --> 00:28:08.720
It is the biggest per minute upgrade any Atlantic team made, and the line did not move.
00:28:08.880 --> 00:28:13.119
Man, they are supposed to be at 45 and a half games, and they stayed there.
00:28:13.599 --> 00:28:19.519
So what do we expect from our Houston or our Toronto Raptors this year?
00:28:19.920 --> 00:28:25.599
Can they go from can they can they beat that 45 wins?
00:28:25.680 --> 00:28:27.519
Well, we'll we'll dive into the numbers and see.
00:28:27.599 --> 00:28:29.119
We'll see what happens.
00:28:30.240 --> 00:28:35.599
I think right now there's two things that we need to talk about.
00:28:35.839 --> 00:28:41.759
One, their offense have just gotten way better with Kawhi Leonard in it.
00:28:42.319 --> 00:28:53.119
Um, you take out Brandon Ingram and Grady Dick, Markel Foltz, and also Sandro Mamu Kilish Vili, who is a Los Angeles Lakers, and we love him.
00:28:53.279 --> 00:28:54.799
Thank you, Toronto.
00:28:54.880 --> 00:28:55.839
Thank you for Mamu.
00:28:56.000 --> 00:28:57.200
We appreciate it.
00:28:57.599 --> 00:29:11.039
They're gonna miss his 80 games that he played, his 11.2 points off the bench, uh, his true shooting percentage of 63.7 percent and his positive box plus minus a 2.8.
00:29:11.599 --> 00:29:17.440
Their front line is thinner, no doubt, but the price of Kawhi Leonard is this.
00:29:17.839 --> 00:29:19.039
Check this out.
00:29:20.319 --> 00:29:27.200
Hey man, we are gonna tell you that you are gonna get picks way in the future.
00:29:27.440 --> 00:29:31.200
Kawhi won't even be playing with us when this happens.
00:29:31.440 --> 00:29:38.160
Uh, 2031 and 2033 first round picks unprotected that will be going to the Clippers.
00:29:38.400 --> 00:29:46.559
But check this out they have a 2027 first round swap with the Clippers.
00:29:46.720 --> 00:29:52.960
So if the Clippers don't have a good season, which they shouldn't, Toronto gets that pick.
00:29:53.920 --> 00:29:55.119
Not bad.
00:29:55.440 --> 00:30:01.599
Toronto keeps its own first of 2028, 2029, and 2030 and 2032.
00:30:01.680 --> 00:30:04.160
So they got they still got some stuff to do.
00:30:04.799 --> 00:30:10.000
Um, they made the Clippers an offer, and the Clippers couldn't refuse it.
00:30:10.160 --> 00:30:19.920
They wanted to get Kawhi out of town so bad, just the bad taste in their mouth, all the publicity that was just going on with them, and and just all the nonsense.
00:30:20.079 --> 00:30:22.000
It was just like, hey, man, go.
00:30:22.079 --> 00:30:24.559
Just this was a failed experiment.
00:30:25.039 --> 00:30:27.200
We don't even want to look at you no more.
00:30:27.519 --> 00:30:28.400
Skip up out.
00:30:29.279 --> 00:30:30.319
Shouldn't have done that.
00:30:30.559 --> 00:30:32.240
Because now he's going to Toronto.
00:30:32.400 --> 00:30:37.680
And Toronto was a team on the rise last year, and this is what he brings with him.
00:30:38.319 --> 00:30:40.880
Kawhi Loki had a great year last year.
00:30:41.039 --> 00:30:44.160
This dude almost averaged 28 points a game.
00:30:44.319 --> 00:30:46.960
He was 27.9 points a game.
00:30:47.119 --> 00:30:50.720
His true shooting percentage was 62.9%.
00:30:51.839 --> 00:30:59.599
He had a usage rate of 33.5, and his box plus minus was a solid positive eight.
00:31:00.480 --> 00:31:06.400
He shot 38.7% from three on damn near seven tries.
00:31:06.880 --> 00:31:08.880
6.8 to be exact.
00:31:09.119 --> 00:31:12.480
He almost shot 90% from the free throw line.
00:31:12.640 --> 00:31:14.079
You gotta love that.
00:31:14.480 --> 00:31:24.799
Uh on 5.7 attempts, and he was seventh in MVP voting last year, and he was second team all NBA.
00:31:25.200 --> 00:31:32.720
So even though Kawhi is at an advanced age, he's still playing like an absolute G and a certified stud.
00:31:33.599 --> 00:31:36.799
And he's not alone, he won't get alone this year.
00:31:36.960 --> 00:31:51.200
That's the great part about this, is that with Scotty Barnes, and we'll get into him a little bit, also Emmanuel Quickly and a couple of the other guys there, it's not like Kawhi's gotta do it by himself.
00:31:51.519 --> 00:31:52.880
So I like that.
00:31:53.359 --> 00:31:54.799
I like this pickup.
00:31:55.200 --> 00:32:00.400
Um my hope is that Kawhi Leonard can play in more than 65 games.
00:32:00.480 --> 00:32:02.880
That's always going to be the problem with him.
00:32:03.359 --> 00:32:13.039
Um he played in 222 of the possible 328 games over the last four seasons, which is 68%.
00:32:13.920 --> 00:32:18.240
Uh games played 52, 68, 37, 65.
00:32:18.799 --> 00:32:26.240
He sat out all of 2021 and 2020, uh 21-22 season with an ACL injury.
00:32:26.400 --> 00:32:29.519
Uh only 22 of 37 playoff games.
00:32:29.599 --> 00:32:31.440
That's absolutely crazy.
00:32:31.680 --> 00:32:34.960
And over the last six years, and he's 35 years of age.
00:32:35.200 --> 00:32:42.400
So, do you think that Kawhi Leonard will play the the key is not how many games they will win?
00:32:42.960 --> 00:32:49.519
Y'all need to go on Calci and figure out does Kawhi Leonard play 65 games?
00:32:50.240 --> 00:32:55.759
Does he get himself eligible for the postseason awards?
00:32:56.480 --> 00:32:58.319
What's your thoughts on that?
00:32:59.119 --> 00:33:01.759
Because last year he played 65 on the nose.
00:33:01.920 --> 00:33:03.359
Does he do it again?
00:33:03.680 --> 00:33:05.119
History says no.
00:33:05.440 --> 00:33:10.720
History says that he would not do it again, and he's 35 years of age.
00:33:11.519 --> 00:33:15.359
So I'm hmm, I don't know.
00:33:16.400 --> 00:33:23.440
Now, what makes this a good fit is that Toronto now has a go-to guy at the end of the shot clock.
00:33:23.680 --> 00:33:31.519
Um, his effective field goal percentage in the last six seconds of the shot clock is 53% over the last three years.
00:33:31.759 --> 00:33:34.880
That's ninth of 130 in 131.
00:33:35.279 --> 00:33:39.599
He's a half-court closer for a team that lives in transition.
00:33:40.240 --> 00:33:45.599
So, if you're looking for somebody to get you a basket, Kawhi Leonard is that dude.
00:33:46.799 --> 00:33:54.400
When you watched him last year, um it isn't whether Kawhi helps Toronto win or not.
00:33:54.480 --> 00:33:57.440
It's whether Toronto can keep him on the floor.
00:33:57.599 --> 00:34:00.079
It's all about his availability.
00:34:00.480 --> 00:34:04.480
Kawhi is basically the Doctor Strange of the NBA.
00:34:04.640 --> 00:34:07.359
Every timeline has the win.
00:34:07.680 --> 00:34:10.880
You just have to be on the one where he's available.
00:34:11.119 --> 00:34:11.599
Right?
00:34:11.760 --> 00:34:20.480
You got to get the good Kawhi, not the bad Kawhi, not the guy who takes off two or three weeks, nobody knows where he is.
00:34:21.119 --> 00:34:25.199
He's in some sort of undisclosed location or whatever the case may be.
00:34:25.440 --> 00:34:29.360
That can't be where he need where he does in Toronto.
00:34:29.519 --> 00:34:35.039
He can't be the same dude that he was when he was what with the Los Angeles Clippers, whatsoever.
00:34:35.519 --> 00:34:41.039
Now, is he gonna get 65 games or is he gonna play 40?
00:34:43.599 --> 00:34:53.440
Now you would say with the help that he got with the Toronto Raptors, he'll probably play close to 65.
00:34:53.920 --> 00:35:03.039
I think when you have Scottie Barnes, who is looking like a guy who is gonna take another step.
00:35:03.599 --> 00:35:06.400
I think last year showed us something.
00:35:06.639 --> 00:35:15.679
Now he scored less points last year at 18.1 from his prior year, which was 19.3, but everything else went up.
00:35:16.000 --> 00:35:33.760
His field goal percentage went up, he went from 44.6 to 50.7, his true shooting went up, he went from 57.7 to yeah, he went he went from 52.3 to 57.7, so all these numbers are up.
00:35:34.320 --> 00:35:47.119
Um, he had a win share percentage of uh 0.14, that's up from 0.0878, and his box plus minus went from he basically switched numbers around.
00:35:47.360 --> 00:35:50.480
He went from 2.4 positive to 4.2.
00:35:51.119 --> 00:35:54.320
We love Scottie Barnes, we love how he plays.
00:35:54.719 --> 00:36:17.920
This is um a guy that can facilitate, be a connector piece, and now he has a guy that can really be dynamic in the scoring department that he can connect to to go along with the Emmanuel Quicklys and the uh Colin Murray Boyles of the world.
00:36:18.239 --> 00:36:24.079
So I like what they have here in Toronto.
00:36:26.239 --> 00:36:37.519
Now he would he play 80 games, he was an all-star, he was fifth in defensive player of the year, and obviously he made uh second team all defensive team.
00:36:38.079 --> 00:36:40.000
Now, here's the rub.
00:36:40.159 --> 00:37:03.519
He's still a abysmal shooter from three, he's only 30.4 percent, but with Kawhi next to him, maybe a little little less pressure, maybe he can take one less three a game, you know, on average, maybe that'll help him with his average of shooting the three.
00:37:04.400 --> 00:37:13.360
And also, again, he might not be called upon to shoot as many threes with Kawhi there and with Emmanuel quickly healthy.
00:37:16.079 --> 00:37:24.480
Now, our guy that we absolutely love, and the person that I think might actually get pinched in this situation is Colin Murray Boyles.
00:37:24.639 --> 00:37:30.880
Now, this dude has the chance and the opportunity to be a breakout candidate.
00:37:31.119 --> 00:37:38.480
He only played in 57 um games last year for the Toronto Raptors, but I don't even want to talk about those.
00:37:38.719 --> 00:37:43.840
I want to talk about the playoff games that my man played.
00:37:44.320 --> 00:38:04.320
The 14.4 points a game, the 6.4 rebounds, the uh 65.6% field goal percentage, the true shooting percentage of 68.5, and the ungodly positive box plus minus of 5.6.
00:38:05.440 --> 00:38:08.159
That's incredible for a rookie.
00:38:08.239 --> 00:38:16.559
And he we he did that in the playoffs, so all his numbers went expeditiously up in the playoffs from the regular season.
00:38:16.880 --> 00:38:19.840
This man was not scared of the moment whatsoever.
00:38:20.079 --> 00:38:22.239
He just he thrived in the environment.
00:38:22.480 --> 00:38:24.880
He was like, shit, this is like March Madness.
00:38:25.119 --> 00:38:30.000
But if we don't win a game, we'll be able to go back and play another one in a couple days.
00:38:30.239 --> 00:38:30.719
Cool.
00:38:30.880 --> 00:38:35.519
Let me go out here and get some rebounds, let me go out here and get some points, you know what I'm saying?
00:38:35.679 --> 00:38:40.079
Play some some stud defense and just be that guy.
00:38:42.000 --> 00:38:45.920
Now, things to survive playoff basketball.
00:38:46.079 --> 00:39:07.440
When you shooting 60 62% from your two situation, and your offensive rebound rate is uh 12 12% on on the dot, and your block rate is 4.1, and you have a defensive box plus minus of positive 1.5 as a rookie, you're doing some things.
00:39:07.840 --> 00:39:14.559
I appreciate your effort, and I appreciate you just absolutely flourishing in the moment.
00:39:15.199 --> 00:39:17.360
CMB is about that life.
00:39:17.599 --> 00:39:19.599
Let's just call it what it is.
00:39:20.480 --> 00:39:22.960
Now, things to work on, right?
00:39:23.119 --> 00:39:33.599
You're a rookie, always things to work on 34% on a volume of less than one shot per game.
00:39:34.800 --> 00:39:42.480
So 17 of 50 over the season, our math says, and I'm just saying oh for three in the playoffs.
00:39:43.199 --> 00:39:44.159
Not great.
00:39:45.199 --> 00:39:49.840
So what are you gonna do with this kid?
00:39:52.000 --> 00:39:55.920
He gets it in, and I think he's just gonna get better.
00:39:56.000 --> 00:40:00.239
I think this is just one step in the right direction.
00:40:00.400 --> 00:40:06.880
That playoff appearance really showed me a lot in what this kid is and what this kid is trying to do.
00:40:07.199 --> 00:40:12.639
The other guy that we need to talk about in earnest is Emmanuel Quickly.
00:40:12.719 --> 00:40:14.960
He played in 70 games last year.
00:40:15.280 --> 00:40:21.440
We need him to play the type of basketball that he is known to play.
00:40:21.599 --> 00:40:22.480
You know what I'm saying?
00:40:22.639 --> 00:40:27.119
And what I mean by that is that we need you to do the exact same thing last year.
00:40:27.440 --> 00:40:36.320
The 16 and a half points a game, the six assists a game, all shooting 37.5% from three on damn near seven tries.
00:40:36.559 --> 00:40:38.639
We need all of that from you.
00:40:39.039 --> 00:40:42.639
The turnover rate, 9.3%, not bad.
00:40:42.960 --> 00:40:45.760
You had career highs games as a rafter.
00:40:46.159 --> 00:40:47.440
I love that.
00:40:47.760 --> 00:40:52.400
Because you only played in 38 and 33 the last two.
00:40:54.639 --> 00:40:58.559
You're a good shot creator, but you're not a great shot creator.
00:40:59.039 --> 00:41:10.400
But I think with Scottie Barnes being there and the gravity that Kawhi Leonard causes, you might be able to get better shots than you did in the last couple years, anyway.
00:41:11.280 --> 00:41:15.199
And they also got a rookie out of Santa Clara, 19th in the draft.
00:41:15.280 --> 00:41:17.039
His name is Alan Graves.
00:41:18.159 --> 00:41:20.480
He is a kind of a jack of all trades.
00:41:20.639 --> 00:41:27.920
This is another guy who's long, long, he's a long wing, he's like six foot eight, six foot nine.
00:41:28.719 --> 00:41:37.599
Defensive mentality, uh, provides a little scoring, provides a little offensive creation, gets on the boards pretty well.
00:41:37.840 --> 00:41:40.079
This is a solid bench piece.
00:41:41.039 --> 00:41:46.320
What the Raptors don't have is a lot of big help.
00:41:47.679 --> 00:41:53.679
And this is where I will start to talk about what they might have and what they might be doing.
00:41:55.519 --> 00:42:02.800
If they go over, that means Kawhi plays 65 games, okay, in around 32 minutes.
00:42:05.920 --> 00:42:09.840
Holds uh the shoot his shooting efficiency as a starter.
00:42:10.239 --> 00:42:12.559
I don't know if he's gonna start personally.
00:42:12.719 --> 00:42:14.880
I think he's gonna be coming off the bench.
00:42:15.280 --> 00:42:17.519
Yakka Cardo needs to stay healthy.
00:42:17.599 --> 00:42:24.320
He only played in 46 games last year, and when he was on the court, he had a 70% field goal percentage.
00:42:24.559 --> 00:42:28.000
When he obviously he can't help you when he's off the court.
00:42:28.400 --> 00:42:35.840
Now, for them not to hit their total, uh Kawhi Leonard misses 25 plus games.
00:42:36.719 --> 00:42:44.639
The youth collision slows the transition offense that scored 18.9 fast break points last year.
00:42:44.960 --> 00:42:48.639
Quickly's injuries aren't resolved.
00:42:49.760 --> 00:42:51.039
You know what I'm saying?
00:42:51.840 --> 00:42:54.880
So, what do the fans need to focus on?
00:42:56.480 --> 00:43:06.239
Kawhi staying healthy, Scotty Barnes still being the dude that he is, a walking triple double as soon as he wakes up in the morning.
00:43:06.480 --> 00:43:11.039
And what does Colin Murray Boyles do for Encore?
00:43:11.440 --> 00:43:12.480
I don't know.
00:43:12.719 --> 00:43:14.639
I can't wait to find out.
00:43:15.360 --> 00:43:17.039
Now I will say this.
00:43:18.159 --> 00:43:34.960
They got some picks, so if there was something they needed, they can go out and get it, and they have enough like um what I call like transition contracts where they can go out and and make a deal for a piece if they need one down the road.
00:43:35.280 --> 00:43:36.559
I like that.
00:43:36.960 --> 00:43:44.000
Now I think the Raptors will get over their forty five and a half win total that uh FanDuel has for them.
00:43:44.159 --> 00:43:46.960
I think they'll get to forty seven wins personally.
00:43:47.440 --> 00:43:55.679
But I think what they're gonna look like in the playoffs is gonna be I want to see who they're matched up against.
00:43:55.920 --> 00:43:58.079
Cause they might cause some chaos in the playoffs.
00:43:58.159 --> 00:44:04.719
So I'm not really like And people are sitting there going, oh, 47 wins is crazy for a team.
00:44:05.199 --> 00:44:08.079
You know how stacked the East is, right?
00:44:08.719 --> 00:44:14.639
Like, I don't think there's going to be a team in the East that wins 60 games or even close to it.
00:44:14.960 --> 00:44:23.920
I think the team that is going to be like with the number one record in the East probably has at the most 56 wins.
00:44:25.039 --> 00:44:27.199
And then it kind of goes down from there.
00:44:27.840 --> 00:44:30.000
So we'll see how it all goes.
00:44:30.239 --> 00:44:31.599
But I like Toronto.
00:44:31.679 --> 00:44:33.679
I like the direction they're headed.
00:44:33.920 --> 00:44:45.440
Um Kawhi Leonard was a swing, but it didn't really hurt them in the long run, like in the like in the next three to four years as far as draft picks are concerned.
00:44:45.679 --> 00:44:47.679
So I'm good with what they did.
00:44:47.840 --> 00:44:49.679
I think they got him for a song.
00:44:49.920 --> 00:44:51.840
They signed him up for a couple more years.
00:44:51.920 --> 00:44:53.760
So now he's three years left there.
00:44:53.920 --> 00:44:55.599
And let's see what they do.
00:44:56.480 --> 00:45:04.079
Moving on to a team that I know everybody wants to talk about, and that is the Philadelphia 76ers.
00:45:05.119 --> 00:45:08.159
Best five on paper, the hardest to bet on the board.
00:45:08.239 --> 00:45:09.760
Boy, I tell you.
00:45:10.079 --> 00:45:14.239
Now, what has made Philly so dynamic?
00:45:14.480 --> 00:45:20.239
Well, first of all, they traded Paul George and Pigs for Jalen Brown.
00:45:20.639 --> 00:45:26.880
And then they followed it up with signing LeBron James to basically a vet minimal contract.
00:45:27.039 --> 00:45:31.920
And now my man is taking helicopters from Philadelphia to New York City.
00:45:32.159 --> 00:45:34.639
Because you know he wasn't staying in Philly, right?
00:45:35.199 --> 00:45:40.320
But now you look at the 76ers lineup, and it is just star-studded.
00:45:40.719 --> 00:45:51.440
You got Joel Embiid at the center, you got LeBron James, you got Jalen Brown, you got Tyrese Maxie, and you got VJ Edgecomb.
00:45:51.679 --> 00:45:53.440
Poor VJ Edgecomb.
00:45:54.320 --> 00:45:56.400
Oh, I'm gonna get the ball next year.
00:45:56.480 --> 00:45:58.639
I'm gonna go ahead and score crazy.
00:45:58.800 --> 00:46:01.280
I'm just gonna be out here doing stuff.
00:46:01.440 --> 00:46:06.880
I almost averaged like seven 17 points or what 18 points a game last year.
00:46:07.280 --> 00:46:11.119
You know, I dunked on people, I look great.
00:46:12.079 --> 00:46:17.519
Oh, hey, VJ, just so you know, we just traded for LeBron and Jalen Brown.
00:46:17.679 --> 00:46:21.199
Or actually, we traded for Jalen Brown and signed LeBron James.
00:46:21.280 --> 00:46:26.400
So we're gonna need you to go ahead and stand in this corner and shoot some threes.
00:46:27.920 --> 00:46:34.559
And take less shots than you did last year because we're gonna have to accommodate these dudes that we just brought in.
00:46:36.000 --> 00:46:38.880
So our guys' development is stymie.
00:46:39.119 --> 00:46:40.079
I don't like that.
00:46:40.239 --> 00:46:44.800
I do not like that, but I understand it because talent is talent.
00:46:45.280 --> 00:46:48.320
So what did Philadelphia do last year?
00:46:49.519 --> 00:46:51.920
They were 45 and 37 last year.
00:46:52.000 --> 00:46:54.639
They beat Boston in seven games.
00:46:54.719 --> 00:47:01.119
Uh in B, played like an absolute animal, and then couldn't back it up with in the next round.
00:47:01.360 --> 00:47:02.639
He just ran out of gas.
00:47:02.719 --> 00:47:06.480
He was tired, and I think he was a little bit injured again.
00:47:07.920 --> 00:47:11.519
They're over under this year.
00:47:12.079 --> 00:47:13.920
It's 50.5.
00:47:14.320 --> 00:47:16.719
We'll see if they get there.
00:47:17.199 --> 00:47:18.880
Actually, is it 50.5?
00:47:19.119 --> 00:47:19.519
Yeah.
00:47:19.840 --> 00:47:24.800
So I think that's gonna be a hard call.
00:47:25.199 --> 00:47:27.119
But they are like the Avengers, man.
00:47:27.199 --> 00:47:28.639
They assembled all of them.
00:47:28.880 --> 00:47:32.559
It's now who's gonna play 60 plus games?
00:47:32.719 --> 00:47:35.840
That's you know, that's beyond my pay grade.
00:47:35.920 --> 00:47:36.960
I don't know that.
00:47:38.719 --> 00:47:40.880
But this team is completely changed over.
00:47:40.960 --> 00:47:48.000
You got Jalen Brown, like we said, LeBron James, they got KCP out of Memphis.
00:47:48.639 --> 00:47:50.719
They got Anthony Simons.
00:47:51.440 --> 00:47:56.000
Hakordy got hurt, so he would he was a new guy also on this team.
00:47:56.239 --> 00:47:57.760
They got Dean Wade.
00:47:57.920 --> 00:48:05.039
Oh, and they also got they drafted in the uh first round last year with the 22nd overall pick.
00:48:05.280 --> 00:48:07.119
LeBaron Phylon Jr.
00:48:07.519 --> 00:48:10.239
Now, LeBron Phyllon Jr.
00:48:10.400 --> 00:48:12.159
is like 6'4, 6'5.
00:48:12.559 --> 00:48:13.519
He's real thin.
00:48:13.599 --> 00:48:16.239
I think he's like 175 pounds.
00:48:16.639 --> 00:48:25.920
So I don't expect a lot from him this year, but I really don't expect a lot from him this year because of what the roster looked like.
00:48:26.079 --> 00:48:28.079
So we'll see how that goes.
00:48:28.480 --> 00:48:37.360
Now, out was Paul George, Andre Drummond, Kyle Lowry, Quentin Grimes, and Cooley uh Kelly O'bre Jr.
00:48:37.599 --> 00:48:41.119
The tsunami poppy is in Indiana.
00:48:41.599 --> 00:48:46.960
I wish they I wish they would have been able to keep Kelly O'bre Jr.
00:48:47.679 --> 00:48:56.559
That would have been a nice little bench piece, you know, get you 13 to 15 points a game, you know, just going out and doing things.
00:48:57.119 --> 00:48:59.519
Not having that is going to be a bummer.
00:49:00.320 --> 00:49:03.519
What do they have as far as picks are concerned?
00:49:04.480 --> 00:49:13.199
Now Philly has their own 2027 pick, 29, 30, 32, and 33.
00:49:15.920 --> 00:49:22.559
So they are still good as far as picks are concerned after the Jalen Brown trade.
00:49:23.599 --> 00:49:31.039
So it's not like they're hurting, it's not like they just strip the team down to the studs to get him.
00:49:31.920 --> 00:49:37.519
Now the other guy they have to worry about is again, we we're gonna sound like a broken record.
00:49:38.159 --> 00:49:40.960
How many games are you getting out of Joel and B?
00:49:41.360 --> 00:49:44.320
Because when he plays, obviously, it's great.
00:49:44.639 --> 00:49:46.480
Almost 27 points a game.
00:49:46.639 --> 00:49:49.119
His true shooting percentage is 60.5.
00:49:49.519 --> 00:49:52.480
It would be more, but he shoots a bunch of threes.
00:49:53.199 --> 00:49:55.199
His usage is 33.5.
00:49:55.519 --> 00:49:57.199
That's gonna have to change.
00:49:58.239 --> 00:50:03.199
He was a uh 4.9 box plus minus, but that was only in 38 games.
00:50:03.360 --> 00:50:06.159
It's it's tough.
00:50:07.119 --> 00:50:16.000
The last couple years his box plus minus has gone from like MVP type of box plus minus to regular dude box plus minus.
00:50:16.239 --> 00:50:23.360
Um, a couple years about four years ago, you were looking at nine point two, three years ago.
00:50:23.440 --> 00:50:29.760
You were looking at eleven point six, uh two years ago was three point five.
00:50:30.000 --> 00:50:33.039
Now last year he did go up a little bit to four point nine.
00:50:33.199 --> 00:50:35.039
We'll see how that goes.
00:50:35.360 --> 00:50:45.280
But it's not the same guy that he was, it's just not his defensive rebound rate has gone from 28.8% to 20.
00:50:46.000 --> 00:51:02.719
His free throw rate has also dipped by 10%, uh 58.1% to down to 48.1%, so 10 on the notes, and his block rate has gone down by one full percentage, which is 4.6 to 3.6 last year.
00:51:03.039 --> 00:51:09.199
All this has to do with the injuries, it has to do with the the lower limb injuries and what have you.
00:51:09.280 --> 00:51:14.960
Now he's in way better shape, um, a lot thinner than he was.
00:51:15.760 --> 00:51:24.239
We just hope that his his knees and his legs can stabilize him through this next upcoming season.
00:51:25.199 --> 00:51:27.840
All there is about it at this point.
00:51:30.000 --> 00:51:38.159
Now, our guy has only played in 162 of the possible 328 over the last four years, that's 49%.
00:51:39.280 --> 00:51:43.039
Um, over the last three seasons, he played in 96.
00:51:44.239 --> 00:51:48.400
So you play 82 games, so that's 246.
00:51:49.599 --> 00:51:53.519
And you play 96 of a possible 246.
00:51:54.719 --> 00:51:59.920
And he's only played in 45 of the possible 94 playoff games.
00:52:00.239 --> 00:52:02.079
This is crazy, man.
00:52:04.079 --> 00:52:09.199
This year is gonna be like Phil Collins in the air tonight, man.
00:52:09.920 --> 00:52:11.679
Cause you got the squad.
00:52:11.840 --> 00:52:17.039
This is everybody's looked at your squad and said, This is tough.
00:52:17.760 --> 00:52:25.679
Now, obviously, LeBron James is gonna have to change his ways a little bit.
00:52:26.000 --> 00:52:32.000
But after watching the preseason game last night, I was I'm I'm a little worried.
00:52:32.320 --> 00:52:35.039
Not about LeBron and what he's gonna do.
00:52:35.599 --> 00:52:38.480
It's the style of play that I'm worried about.
00:52:38.559 --> 00:52:45.519
And I'll get to that uh towards the end of what our prediction is for the Philadelphia 76ers.
00:52:45.760 --> 00:52:51.199
What you're getting out of LeBron James, first of all, this is year fucking 24.
00:52:52.320 --> 00:52:56.960
Okay, this is we're we're getting into ridiculous numbers now.
00:52:57.519 --> 00:53:07.519
Last year, my man put up 21 points a game, six points, 6.1 rebounds, 7.2 assists in 60 games.
00:53:07.840 --> 00:53:10.639
He played 33.2 minutes.
00:53:10.960 --> 00:53:13.599
True shooting percentage, damn near 60%.
00:53:14.320 --> 00:53:23.199
59.4, he had a PR of 20.8, and he had a box plus or minus of positive 3.5.
00:53:23.519 --> 00:53:34.800
It is a far cry from the normal MVP numbers that we used to see out of LeBron probably when he was in his mid-30s.
00:53:34.880 --> 00:53:35.920
So think about that.
00:53:37.039 --> 00:53:40.960
But he doesn't need to be an MVP candidate here.
00:53:41.119 --> 00:53:42.719
You know what you need to be here?
00:53:43.199 --> 00:53:58.960
You need to be a connecting piece, you need to play off ball a little bit, you need to allow Terry uh Tyrese Maxie and others to get on ball, and you know, you be a cutter, you be that guy who cuts into the lane now.
00:53:59.039 --> 00:54:09.199
If you see somebody doing something cool like on the baseline, or also if you see a wide open three-point shooter, go ahead and kick it out to him.
00:54:09.519 --> 00:54:15.679
This should be the best second side initiator in the game.
00:54:15.840 --> 00:54:17.119
But here's the thing.
00:54:17.360 --> 00:54:26.079
If you notice last year, now a lot of this had to do with the Luka Doncic injury and the Austin Reeves injury as well.
00:54:26.400 --> 00:54:34.880
But LeBron played a primary on-ball role for that team.
00:54:35.119 --> 00:54:36.239
I'll say that again.
00:54:36.400 --> 00:54:41.199
He played a primary on-ball role on the Lakers.
00:54:41.760 --> 00:54:44.079
The Lakers had Luka Doncic.
00:54:45.679 --> 00:54:46.719
You know what I'm saying?
00:54:46.880 --> 00:54:51.360
Like, they had to stagger their minutes, you know, like they would start, right?
00:54:51.440 --> 00:54:57.360
And then they would stagger their minutes because you couldn't have both of them with the ball.
00:54:58.079 --> 00:55:03.840
And listen, I'm not saying that Maxie is the wizard that Luka Doncic is.
00:55:04.079 --> 00:55:13.679
I am just saying that those guys like Tyrese Maxie and VJ Edgecombe and Jalen Brown, they like to play with pace.
00:55:14.239 --> 00:55:22.320
And I know that my guy at 42 does not want to play with pace.
00:55:22.880 --> 00:55:25.360
Doesn't want no does not want to do that.
00:55:26.239 --> 00:55:34.480
So are we gonna get the half-court grinded out style where LeBron is dissecting the other team or whatever the case may be?
00:55:34.719 --> 00:55:35.440
Maybe.
00:55:35.920 --> 00:55:39.039
Now the numbers say that that it still works.
00:55:39.360 --> 00:55:40.880
It still works.
00:55:41.360 --> 00:55:42.800
But the decline is real.
00:55:42.960 --> 00:55:49.679
He's gone from uh in the last four years, he's gone from a PR of 23.9 to 20.8.
00:55:50.079 --> 00:55:58.800
The box plus minus was 6.5 four years ago, and obviously, you know what we saw last year is 3.5.
00:55:59.679 --> 00:56:08.480
So the points have gone from almost 29 points to just over 21 to uh just under 21.
00:56:09.199 --> 00:56:13.039
His three-point shooting is still not great, it's 31%.
00:56:14.159 --> 00:56:20.079
He shot a abysmal 73.7% from the free throw line, which is terrible.
00:56:20.559 --> 00:56:33.119
Now the games played, you know, four years ago, 55, 3 years ago, 71, 72 years ago, and 60 last year.
00:56:33.760 --> 00:56:39.440
Possible 250 256 games out of possible 328, that's 78%.
00:56:40.159 --> 00:56:45.440
What do you expect from somebody who turns 42 on December 30th?
00:56:45.760 --> 00:56:50.159
Why this matters is because Brown is an isolation first player.
00:56:50.480 --> 00:56:55.280
MV is a post scorer, LeBron is a passer who connects them.
00:56:55.760 --> 00:56:58.639
So we're gonna see a lot of him on ball.
00:56:59.360 --> 00:57:13.360
When a uh anonymous scout said this, he says watch them for two decades, says the question isn't the legs, it's whether he'll take a smaller role in get in games in the games that do don't matter.
00:57:15.440 --> 00:57:17.199
You know, that was the thing last year.
00:57:17.360 --> 00:57:20.239
They wanted LeBron to play like around 30 minutes.
00:57:20.480 --> 00:57:35.039
Now you say, oh, well, he only played like 33 and a half, but those minutes add up, especially on somebody who on his legs, on his knees, at the age of 42, father time will catch up to everybody.
00:57:35.119 --> 00:57:42.239
Now, LeBron has been able to stay off Father Time for a long period of time now, so hey, we will see.
00:57:42.880 --> 00:57:46.400
Now, the big piece that they got this year was Jalen Brown.
00:57:46.559 --> 00:57:52.880
Philadelphia went crazy, got Jalen Brown for a song personally, I think.
00:57:53.199 --> 00:57:54.719
And what did they get?
00:57:55.039 --> 00:57:56.800
He's coming off a career year.
00:57:57.039 --> 00:57:59.920
This dude averaged 28.7 points a game.
00:58:00.159 --> 00:58:02.159
He played in 71 games.
00:58:03.039 --> 00:58:05.840
You know, his box plus or minus was 3.3.
00:58:05.920 --> 00:58:07.840
We'll get into that momentarily.
00:58:08.400 --> 00:58:11.360
Uh true shooting percentage was 57.3%.
00:58:12.480 --> 00:58:15.119
His free throw attempts went way up.
00:58:15.280 --> 00:58:18.000
He went from 5.1 to 7.5.
00:58:19.039 --> 00:58:24.320
Um 34.7% from three on almost six tries.
00:58:25.679 --> 00:58:30.159
And, you know, he is a bona fide bucket getter.
00:58:30.719 --> 00:58:40.079
But the other bucket getter on this team that is is the resident bucket getter is Tyrese Maxie, who also averaged 28.3 points a game.
00:58:40.400 --> 00:58:42.960
6.6 assists as well.
00:58:44.800 --> 00:58:52.719
So I'm looking at this dude and I'm hoping that he still gets to hold on to the ball.
00:58:54.239 --> 00:59:02.559
Now, a little ways down the road, we talked about uh VJ Edgecombe and what his development pathway is gonna be.
00:59:02.800 --> 00:59:06.400
Remember, he averaged 16 points a game last year.
00:59:06.639 --> 00:59:09.280
He was third in rookie of the year voting.
00:59:10.559 --> 00:59:32.400
Now, I don't know how this is gonna work, but we had Brown with a usage rate of 36%, we had MB with a usage rate of 30 and 30 33 and a half, maxi with a usage rate of 29.4, LeBron with a 27.2, and Edgecomb with a 20.
00:59:32.559 --> 00:59:34.239
You know what that adds up to?
00:59:34.559 --> 00:59:36.559
146.4.
00:59:39.280 --> 00:59:41.199
You can only have 100.
00:59:42.000 --> 00:59:43.840
You can only have 100.
00:59:44.239 --> 00:59:46.800
Somebody's gonna have to sacrifice.
00:59:47.760 --> 00:59:50.480
Is VJ Edgecomb gonna have to sacrifice?
00:59:50.639 --> 00:59:51.519
That sucks.
00:59:52.159 --> 00:59:53.360
We get why.
00:59:53.519 --> 00:59:57.440
We understand why why that is right?
00:59:57.840 --> 01:00:01.760
Jalen Brown is on this team, LeBron James is on this team.
01:00:02.320 --> 01:00:07.360
How much you get out of Joel and B, that's that's we'll see.
01:00:07.920 --> 01:00:16.239
But sacrifice is going to have to be made all over this lineup.
01:00:16.880 --> 01:00:26.000
Now their bench is not as good as last year, but they do have one absolute firecracker off the bench, and that is Anthony Simons.
01:00:26.239 --> 01:00:32.400
Anthony Simons in uh 49 games last year, 14.2 points a game.
01:00:32.639 --> 01:00:34.960
He almost shot 40% from three.
01:00:35.280 --> 01:00:36.400
So I love that.
01:00:36.559 --> 01:00:38.480
Carwell Coe is old.
01:00:39.599 --> 01:00:43.679
Not LeBron James old, but old for a regular basketball player.
01:00:43.840 --> 01:00:48.079
He's 33, and the numbers haven't been great lately.
01:00:48.880 --> 01:00:56.719
The who's backing up MB, well, it's not gonna be Ariel Hawk Party, because he tore his ACL.
01:00:59.119 --> 01:01:02.320
MB has a damn bona out of UCLA.
01:01:02.400 --> 01:01:03.119
That's our guy.
01:01:03.280 --> 01:01:06.400
A clap all day, and Dominique Burrow.
01:01:07.039 --> 01:01:10.159
So we will see what they do.
01:01:10.239 --> 01:01:15.920
Now, does Liberian Feinline play a uh intrical role off the bench as a rookie?
01:01:16.320 --> 01:01:20.239
That would be really interesting to see.
01:01:20.639 --> 01:01:25.840
This is remember I told you I want I wish they would have been able to retain Kelly Ubre Jr.
01:01:26.079 --> 01:01:28.480
This is why the bench is terrible.
01:01:28.719 --> 01:01:39.840
But when you have five legitimate stars on your starting roster, you think about it, man.
01:01:39.920 --> 01:01:47.280
I don't know how you stagger these minutes, but you got Embiid, LeBron, Jalen Brown, Tyrese Maxi, and VJ Edgeb.
01:01:48.960 --> 01:01:52.159
Does VJ Edge Comb play with the bench a lot?
01:01:53.280 --> 01:01:55.119
Who else plays with the bench a lot?
01:01:55.280 --> 01:01:57.760
Is that gonna be the LeBron situation?
01:01:59.280 --> 01:02:02.320
They're gonna have the Nick Nurse has a lot of work to do.
01:02:02.880 --> 01:02:08.400
Now, what allows the 76ers to go over their win total?
01:02:08.639 --> 01:02:12.320
Obviously, in B's health, he has to play over 55 games.
01:02:12.639 --> 01:02:17.360
LeBron has to be at 33 minutes, if not a little bit lower.
01:02:17.519 --> 01:02:23.360
But I would think that he also has to play 60 plus games for them to go over their win total.
01:02:24.960 --> 01:02:32.239
Brown's isolation volume drops and maxi keeps his as keeps his games at 70.
01:02:34.000 --> 01:02:36.400
And y'all learn how to share the sugar.
01:02:37.440 --> 01:02:40.159
Share the ball in Philadelphia.
01:02:41.199 --> 01:02:48.559
The reason why the Philadelphia 76ers won't hit their mark of the win total is this.
01:02:48.719 --> 01:02:56.880
Obviously, MV doesn't play enough games, they never figure out the usage the whole season.
01:02:57.440 --> 01:03:01.119
You know, and I'm gonna tell you that's gonna be a a struggle.
01:03:01.679 --> 01:03:18.159
You know, you're gonna have stretches where you're winning games and it looks great and everything like that, but I'm gonna tell you right now, you got to have guys buy into whatever the system is gonna be, or whatever the shot distribution is going to be.
01:03:19.760 --> 01:03:29.119
Because Maxi had green light all day long last year, and now you're telling him, Oh, yeah, we need you to bottle that up.
01:03:30.719 --> 01:03:35.599
That can be very difficult for a player.
01:03:38.079 --> 01:03:42.079
What the fans need to focus on, cross your fingers.
01:03:44.159 --> 01:03:46.880
Cross your fingers that MV plays a lot of games.
01:03:47.440 --> 01:03:48.159
Cross it.
01:03:48.800 --> 01:03:53.039
Now what helps you out is that you got a clethera picks.
01:03:53.760 --> 01:04:03.679
You still got your own 2027 first round pick, 2029, 2030, 2032, and 2033.
01:04:04.639 --> 01:04:07.920
Boston got your pick in 2031.
01:04:08.719 --> 01:04:12.480
Now, your call is the 50 and a half wins.
01:04:13.519 --> 01:04:15.519
I think talent wins out.
01:04:15.760 --> 01:04:18.000
I think you win fifty-two games.
01:04:20.159 --> 01:04:28.880
I'm putting a lot on MV staying healthy, and I should I should not bet that MV will stay healthy.
01:04:29.440 --> 01:04:42.079
Now the other question is this will Nick Nurse pick a style and be married to it, or be married to that clotting style that M B and LeBron will prefer them to play?
01:04:43.199 --> 01:04:45.280
And here is a question for you.
01:04:45.599 --> 01:04:47.840
Philadelphia 76ers fans.
01:04:48.320 --> 01:04:53.039
Hit me up on on uh X at Frontrunner PC.
01:04:54.880 --> 01:05:06.159
Is Maxie not MB the most important player on the 76ers and how he goes, so go the 76ers?
01:05:07.599 --> 01:05:13.519
That's why I'm saying that you guys are gonna go over.
01:05:14.800 --> 01:05:19.360
Next up on the docket is our guys from the Celtics.
01:05:19.599 --> 01:05:23.360
And the Celtics have a lot, a lot of explaining to do.
01:05:23.679 --> 01:05:26.159
Boston traded away Jalen Brown.
01:05:26.400 --> 01:05:30.559
Oh, by the way, seventh best player according to analytics.
01:05:31.039 --> 01:05:34.320
To the Philadelphia 76ers, obviously, for Paul George.
01:05:34.480 --> 01:05:39.199
They sign Mitchell Robinson and Mike Conley, who is old as dirt.
01:05:39.360 --> 01:05:43.519
Um, they get back Jason Tatum uh from the Achilles tier.
01:05:43.679 --> 01:05:52.559
Remember, he had a 16 game cameo last year uh and missed a couple of the pre the uh postseason games as far as that's concerned.
01:05:52.960 --> 01:05:59.280
Now he was able to spend a full offseason working on skill work rather than rehabbing, which is great.
01:06:00.000 --> 01:06:07.360
Now the Celtics won fifty-six games last year, but Pandu was saying forty-nine.
01:06:08.400 --> 01:06:11.360
Forty-nine and a half for the Celtics.
01:06:11.679 --> 01:06:12.800
What say you?
01:06:15.599 --> 01:06:17.519
They won fifty-six last year.
01:06:17.920 --> 01:06:20.079
We're not gonna talk about the postseason.
01:06:20.880 --> 01:06:23.199
Because we just talked about with the 76ers.
01:06:24.079 --> 01:06:26.239
Let's get into this team, shall we?
01:06:27.679 --> 01:06:34.159
Um both recent postseasons have ended in losses to lower seeds, by the way.
01:06:35.039 --> 01:06:37.119
That's a first and foremost thing.
01:06:37.760 --> 01:06:45.440
And being number six in the in the east, down one, we'll see.
01:06:46.079 --> 01:06:50.400
This is last the power rankings that came out from the athletic.
01:06:52.800 --> 01:06:59.199
If you want to know, it wasn't personal, it was strictly business about Jalen Brown.
01:06:59.360 --> 01:07:03.599
And when I say that, it's gonna make Boston Celtics fans mad.
01:07:04.239 --> 01:07:05.360
It was business.
01:07:05.599 --> 01:07:07.840
You're 100% right, it was.
01:07:08.480 --> 01:07:21.440
Boston moved on from a 71-game uh player in Brown, their best scorer, who almost averaged 29 points a game, to an often injured 36-year-old.
01:07:21.599 --> 01:07:27.039
And I'm telling you, that sell job came straight from Bill Chisholm himself and his desk.
01:07:27.360 --> 01:07:37.119
Brad Stevens just needs to execute the play the playbook and the cost-cutting vision that Chisholm has for him.
01:07:37.280 --> 01:07:44.000
And the analytics group needs to back it up, uh, back that up the narrative up with numbers.
01:07:45.920 --> 01:07:48.639
I'm just point blank simple.
01:07:49.679 --> 01:08:02.719
They weren't going to continue to have a team that where you have Tatum and Brown on it, basically taking up like a hundred and thirty million dollars of the cap.
01:08:03.679 --> 01:08:05.679
That was not gonna happen.
01:08:06.719 --> 01:08:09.920
Remember, Brown was due for extension.
01:08:10.239 --> 01:08:12.079
They were like, nah, we're not paying that.
01:08:12.239 --> 01:08:13.280
We're cool.
01:08:14.400 --> 01:08:16.960
We need to get off this dude real quick.
01:08:17.680 --> 01:08:26.720
And they've been trying to sell that Paul George is a better fit with Tatum than Jalen Brown.
01:08:27.600 --> 01:08:29.359
Who helped them win a title?
01:08:29.600 --> 01:08:38.640
By the way, not only helped them win a title, he was the Eastern Conference Finals MVP and then also the NBA finals MVP.
01:08:39.279 --> 01:08:39.600
Okay?
01:08:40.079 --> 01:08:42.640
We're not talking about some scrub, dude.
01:08:42.960 --> 01:08:49.520
We're talking about argument for argument's sake, the second best player on the on the Celtics.
01:08:49.680 --> 01:08:57.119
I don't care what your analytics department says, or whatever independent number person you got that off of.
01:09:16.560 --> 01:09:19.279
Now they did draft kind of interesting.
01:09:19.520 --> 01:09:20.960
Chris Sinick Jr.
01:09:21.199 --> 01:09:28.800
from Houston was their 27th pick overall, and then they picked up Dylan Mitchell at the 40th pick.
01:09:30.239 --> 01:09:35.039
What's gone from the Boston Celtics?
01:09:35.359 --> 01:09:36.960
A bunch of coins.
01:09:37.680 --> 01:09:39.039
Jalen Brown is gone.
01:09:39.119 --> 01:09:40.640
We told you what he averaged.
01:09:40.800 --> 01:09:42.960
They have Rusovic on that team.
01:09:43.199 --> 01:09:45.520
And I'm not saying that you should have kept him.
01:09:45.840 --> 01:09:48.800
You know, I don't know if you could have afforded the price tag, but guess what?
01:09:48.960 --> 01:09:50.000
He's gone.
01:09:50.800 --> 01:09:54.479
And Anthony Simons is also in Philadelphia.
01:09:54.800 --> 01:09:59.680
Top five offense and defense for four straight seasons are the Boston Celtics.
01:09:59.760 --> 01:10:01.119
Is that gonna continue?
01:10:02.880 --> 01:10:13.840
Their offense was 126.6 per 100% uh what per what per 100 possessions, best in three years.
01:10:14.079 --> 01:10:20.159
Now, here's the rub, and I don't know if this gets any better with the acquisitions they made.
01:10:20.560 --> 01:10:27.119
Only 41% of shots in the paint drive into the paint on this roster right now.
01:10:27.600 --> 01:10:31.279
That's lasting the league for the third straight year.
01:10:31.439 --> 01:10:36.560
We know that Missoula likes to get up a bunch of po get a butt bunch of three-point shots.
01:10:36.720 --> 01:10:45.359
We know that, but they need to diversify this offense, and they need to do something with this as soon as possible.
01:10:46.159 --> 01:10:48.720
And also, can I ask a quick question?
01:10:49.039 --> 01:10:55.680
Are we expecting Mitchell Robinson to play like 32 minutes a game now?
01:10:56.880 --> 01:11:00.960
So we're gonna have a hacker Robinson in in Boston.
01:11:02.640 --> 01:11:07.920
Also, not the most durable dude on the face of the planet either.
01:11:09.439 --> 01:11:12.880
So, just got some questions there.
01:11:13.199 --> 01:11:15.520
Just questions all over the board.
01:11:15.840 --> 01:11:29.600
You traded Jalen Brown, who had his best season, maybe because he said something like, I know I played in the championship game or whatever, Casey McGee, but last year was my most satisfying season that I've had.
01:11:30.720 --> 01:11:42.720
A lot of people kind of turn their eye up to that one, they gave him a little side eye, thinking like you won a championship with Jason Tato, and you're telling us last seat season was the best season for you.
01:11:43.520 --> 01:11:45.840
That's disrespectful to the to the fan base.
01:11:47.199 --> 01:11:54.079
But hey man, that dude was looking to to to spread his wings a little bit.
01:11:54.319 --> 01:11:58.159
My whole thing is that could you have gotten better if you would have waited.
01:11:59.439 --> 01:12:00.159
Just asking.
01:12:00.319 --> 01:12:05.039
Oh, and by the way, you shift them off to a team that you're gonna see four times a year.
01:12:06.880 --> 01:12:09.359
This doesn't none of this sounds good.
01:12:09.840 --> 01:12:11.359
And I'm sorry, Boston.
01:12:11.680 --> 01:12:26.720
I'm trying to throw some rainbows in there somewhere, but the moves are to be critiqued as such because they look suspect.
01:12:27.359 --> 01:12:32.319
They look like we just tried to tear down payroll.
01:12:32.560 --> 01:12:34.000
That's what it looked like.
01:12:35.039 --> 01:12:44.079
And anybody telling you differently is is trying to sell you uh guerrilla goods that's not worth a damn.
01:12:45.039 --> 01:12:46.319
Just being honest.
01:12:46.560 --> 01:12:54.000
Now, the good thing about this is that they have their own picks of 2027, 2030, and 2033.
01:12:54.640 --> 01:13:01.439
Um Philadelphia owns their 2031 pick.
01:13:02.000 --> 01:13:06.000
Oh, they got their oh, they got Philadelphia's pick from 2031.
01:13:06.239 --> 01:13:10.399
Uh, they have a conditional situation with Portland and Washington in 2029.
01:13:10.960 --> 01:13:11.920
That sucks.
01:13:12.239 --> 01:13:15.359
And the 2032 pick is frozen because of the salary cap.
01:13:16.079 --> 01:13:17.279
Not great.
01:13:18.479 --> 01:13:21.439
Now, Jason Tatum is gonna be back.
01:13:22.159 --> 01:13:24.880
He's maybe he'd be fully back.
01:13:25.359 --> 01:13:31.199
I will not look at the numbers last year and go, oh, this is this is what he is, what he is.
01:13:31.359 --> 01:13:36.399
It's not because what he is is like a 27 point per game, dude.
01:13:36.560 --> 01:13:38.880
He might need to go up from that personally.
01:13:40.159 --> 01:13:44.960
He's a better rebounder of the ball than the Jalen Brown.
01:13:45.199 --> 01:13:54.000
I never thought like you should trade Tatum or you know, trade Tatum instead of Jalen Brown.
01:13:54.079 --> 01:13:56.560
I think you should have tried to find a way to keep them together.
01:13:56.720 --> 01:13:59.760
Maybe you pare down the payroll somewhere else.
01:14:00.079 --> 01:14:02.800
They wanted more flexibility down the road.
01:14:02.960 --> 01:14:04.000
I don't know.
01:14:04.560 --> 01:14:06.640
We'll see how this all works.
01:14:07.039 --> 01:14:09.840
But right now, not great.
01:14:10.560 --> 01:14:12.479
Not great whatsoever.
01:14:14.079 --> 01:14:19.279
So I think right now, and this is what Paul George numbers look like, by the way.
01:14:19.600 --> 01:14:29.199
He only played 37 games last year, 17.3 points a game, so you lost 11 points there, 5.3 rebounds, 3.6 assists.
01:14:29.439 --> 01:14:34.000
He did shoot 39.2% from 3 on 7 tries.
01:14:34.399 --> 01:14:41.039
His uh true shooting percentage was uh 57%, and his box plus minus was 1.7.
01:14:41.760 --> 01:14:55.920
Now uh he couple years ago he only played 41 games, so he's played in the last four years 56, 74, 41, and 37 games.
01:14:58.159 --> 01:15:02.640
Not great, not great, not great.
01:15:04.720 --> 01:15:09.520
And Derek White needs to have a bounce back year, by the way, just as a FY.
01:15:09.840 --> 01:15:12.319
That's the other guy that we need to talk about real quick.
01:15:12.560 --> 01:15:14.560
He played 77 games last year.
01:15:14.720 --> 01:15:15.359
That's great.
01:15:15.600 --> 01:15:20.319
He is the heart, he's one of the heart and soul dudes on this team, understandably.
01:15:20.560 --> 01:15:22.560
Everybody loves Derek White.
01:15:22.880 --> 01:15:29.680
Here's the thing the three-point shot, the 32.37% is not gonna cut it.
01:15:30.159 --> 01:15:32.880
Especially on eight eight point three tries.
01:15:33.199 --> 01:15:36.479
The true shooting percentage is down to 52.9.
01:15:37.520 --> 01:15:41.680
It was 60 point, it was 60.6 at one point.
01:15:42.479 --> 01:15:45.520
That's a 77 point drop, man.
01:15:46.399 --> 01:15:53.520
His two his uh two-point field goal percentage went from 59.3 to 48.7.
01:15:54.640 --> 01:15:58.239
Now, here's um the other things that he has.
01:15:58.399 --> 01:16:01.039
He's still one of the best defenders in the league.
01:16:01.199 --> 01:16:11.439
He still has an incredible block rate for somebody who block shots as a guard, 3.8, which is and he averaged 1.3 blocks a game, which is crazy.
01:16:11.680 --> 01:16:20.159
He's 32 years of age at this point, and there was somebody I talked to, and they said, Don't worry about the three-point shot.
01:16:20.239 --> 01:16:24.319
It's the two-point drop that is worth watching.
01:16:24.479 --> 01:16:27.600
That's the thing that you need to concentrate on.
01:16:27.760 --> 01:16:29.600
I was like, oh, okay, yeah.
01:16:29.760 --> 01:16:33.199
So that's when we dug into the numbers and we saw what he shot last year.
01:16:33.279 --> 01:16:34.319
It was terrible.
01:16:34.560 --> 01:16:39.039
Now, Mitchell Robertson is gonna be an awesome offensive rebounder.
01:16:39.199 --> 01:16:44.800
We saw him do it for the Knicks, but he does not play a lot of minutes.
01:16:45.119 --> 01:16:59.760
He didn't play a lot of minutes when he was in New York, and I'm trying to wrap my head around that we're just going to for a guy who's often injured, we're just gonna give this dude like 30 minutes a game, and that's just gonna be okay.
01:17:01.520 --> 01:17:02.560
You know what I'm saying?
01:17:02.640 --> 01:17:04.640
That's just gonna be alright.
01:17:04.960 --> 01:17:09.119
He only shoots 40% from the free throw line, by the way.
01:17:09.920 --> 01:17:13.760
So Hacker Robinson will come to the to the Celtics.
01:17:14.560 --> 01:17:22.000
Now, they have depth on the front court, they have Demais Kita, who was a standout last year.
01:17:22.159 --> 01:17:30.960
So basically, they have like a three-headed monster at the center position, along with Luka Garza, and also they got the kid Chris Sanak Jr.
01:17:31.439 --> 01:17:32.640
So that's good.
01:17:32.960 --> 01:17:36.239
So, what is the record for the Celtics?
01:17:36.399 --> 01:17:37.760
I'll tell you right now.
01:17:38.479 --> 01:17:50.399
If Tatum plays over 60 games and plays 30 34 34 minutes, if White gets his three-point shooting up to at least league average, but his twos come up as well?
01:17:53.119 --> 01:17:55.920
Is Robinson gonna play 55 plus games?
01:17:56.159 --> 01:17:57.680
Does that fix the paint?
01:17:58.239 --> 01:18:01.039
Is that center by committee gonna work?
01:18:02.479 --> 01:18:14.239
Does George play the amount of games that he usually plays, or is he gonna get up to close to the amount that you played to get uh awards?
01:18:14.720 --> 01:18:16.720
These are all questions that I have.
01:18:18.720 --> 01:18:22.640
The fans need to focus on their owner.
01:18:23.520 --> 01:18:30.079
Because you know what is important to you guys, it's gonna be the trade deadline this year.
01:18:30.720 --> 01:18:32.880
Is there more pairing to come?
01:18:34.079 --> 01:18:36.880
Is Derek is Derek White on his way out?
01:18:38.960 --> 01:18:40.560
What's the situation?
01:18:42.000 --> 01:18:46.880
Cause remember, um, our guy Paul Jordan makes a ton of money too.
01:18:47.199 --> 01:18:50.560
It's not like you got off this a crazy amount of money.
01:18:50.800 --> 01:18:56.159
You just didn't have to pay the extension for Jalen Brown, which you did not want to do.
01:18:58.319 --> 01:19:05.279
So your boy has told you like he's not trying to cost cut, but that's exactly what Bill Chisholm has done.
01:19:05.680 --> 01:19:14.239
Our call is this I don't think they're gonna get to the over 51.
01:19:15.039 --> 01:19:16.960
I think they're gonna hit 50.
01:19:17.600 --> 01:19:24.079
I think they're gonna be competitive, I think they're gonna win 50 games, but they're going under.
01:19:26.720 --> 01:19:35.840
Now, the next team that we need to worry about is the New York Knicks, the defending reigning champions of the NBA.
01:19:36.159 --> 01:19:38.640
Now, it's all good for the Knicks, right?
01:19:39.039 --> 01:19:44.239
The Knicks were 53-29 last year, but they were incredible during the playoffs.
01:19:44.399 --> 01:19:45.840
They were 16-3.
01:19:46.560 --> 01:19:51.199
They kept on coming back on San Antonio just like it was crazy.
01:19:51.760 --> 01:19:53.520
It was so crazy.
01:19:55.840 --> 01:20:00.399
So, what do they do for Encore after they won 53 games?
01:20:00.640 --> 01:20:03.279
Well, Mitchell Robinson is gone.
01:20:03.439 --> 01:20:12.479
They replaced him with Andre Drummond, which is kind of like a supposedly a close facsimile as far as rebounding is concerned.
01:20:13.520 --> 01:20:16.079
Their win total is 52.5.
01:20:18.800 --> 01:20:25.039
So, what makes this team so good and looking to uh repeat?
01:20:26.399 --> 01:20:31.439
Well, everybody's back except for Mitchell Robson, so you know you got that.
01:20:31.680 --> 01:20:33.439
You don't have to worry there.
01:20:34.319 --> 01:20:46.239
You do have a couple things that you do need to worry about, like the extension for Carl Anthony Towns, which they down the front office is saying that we're gonna table these talks for a little bit.
01:20:47.439 --> 01:20:49.600
Not feeling that whatsoever.
01:20:49.920 --> 01:20:50.880
Who else was it?
01:20:51.039 --> 01:20:52.560
McBride as well.
01:20:54.319 --> 01:20:55.840
Not feeling that.
01:20:56.239 --> 01:21:00.399
But hey, it's a Kumbaya season.
01:21:00.640 --> 01:21:11.840
The Knicks are the world champions, they're the defending world champions, so their team looks still formidable, still formidable.
01:21:12.880 --> 01:21:19.279
They're gonna sit there and walk into this season with Jalen Brunson now with a championship under his belt.
01:21:19.520 --> 01:21:27.199
Uh Jalen Brunson had a phenomenal season again last year, 26 points a game, almost seven assists, three rebounds.
01:21:27.520 --> 01:21:34.239
He said true shooting percentage um was uh 58% or point five eight.
01:21:34.399 --> 01:21:43.920
Oh he had a box class minus three point one.
01:21:45.039 --> 01:21:50.319
He is three point percentage has gone down over the last two or three years.
01:21:50.560 --> 01:21:55.600
He was from 40% down to three point three six three thirty-six point nine.
01:21:55.840 --> 01:21:58.640
Now he's taking more shots, obviously.
01:21:59.279 --> 01:22:01.920
His free throw rate has kind of gone down as well.
01:22:02.000 --> 01:22:08.960
He's gone from uh point three seven three to uh two eight five, which is crazy.
01:22:09.520 --> 01:22:11.600
Gonna have to get those back up.
01:22:12.640 --> 01:22:15.600
He's pretty damn durable, he plays in a lot of games.
01:22:15.680 --> 01:22:19.920
He played at 74 last year, a couple years ago, 65.
01:22:20.399 --> 01:22:22.640
So he's really about right there.
01:22:23.119 --> 01:22:30.159
Now, the one weak number with him is his defensive box plus or minus, but that's why they built the team around him.
01:22:30.560 --> 01:22:32.640
That's why you got OG Ananobi.
01:22:32.720 --> 01:22:36.800
That's why you got Mikhail Bridges and in the crew.
01:22:37.039 --> 01:22:46.079
The real key is the I don't even know if you want to call it growth, but the maturity level that Carl Anthony Town showed during the playoffs.
01:22:46.159 --> 01:22:49.520
I wonder if that's something that he could do for an 82-game season.
01:22:49.840 --> 01:22:51.920
Now, the numbers are always good.
01:22:52.079 --> 01:22:55.680
20 points a game, almost 12 rebounds a game, which is stellar.
01:22:56.720 --> 01:22:58.479
Played in 75 games.
01:22:58.720 --> 01:23:13.199
His true shooting percentage was uh uh 619, uh he had a PR of 22, his win shares per 48 was one was point one nine seven.
01:23:16.239 --> 01:23:30.000
So I love that, and then he had a uh total rebound rate of twenty-one point four, the defensive rebound percentage was thirty one point three or thirty-one point seven.
01:23:30.079 --> 01:23:33.520
I'm sorry, and the offensive rebound was eleven point two.
01:23:37.119 --> 01:23:45.920
Now, you can talk about that, or you want to talk about just how what kind of defense he played in the playoffs?
01:23:46.399 --> 01:23:48.960
Cause that dude was a demon.
01:23:49.199 --> 01:23:51.520
Not he shot the wall, did all those things.
01:23:51.600 --> 01:23:54.000
Don't I'm not pooping the numbers.
01:23:54.079 --> 01:24:11.199
What I'm saying is that the silly fouls went away, and he was able to lock in on his defense assignment and be able to really complete his defense assignments last year, and I thought that was critical to what they were trying to do.
01:24:11.520 --> 01:24:23.199
Now, OG Ananobi will always be known as the dude who tipped the ball in during game four on that incredible comeback that they had no business coming back from.
01:24:23.439 --> 01:24:40.079
The miracle in the garden, whatever you want to call it, when you have like Hollywood types or whatever case may be, like Ben Stiller and Tracy Morgan and all these dudes just roaming around the garden like they're in a fog of euphoria.
01:24:40.640 --> 01:24:44.159
Man, it's an incredible, it's an incredible night to be alive.
01:24:44.319 --> 01:24:50.159
People will talk about that night for a long period of time in New York City.
01:24:50.319 --> 01:24:57.840
Now, when you look at OG Ananobi's numbers during the regular season, they look quite pedestrian.
01:24:58.079 --> 01:25:05.279
He averaged 16.7 points a game, 5.2 rebounds, he played in 67 games, right?
01:25:05.439 --> 01:25:06.640
33 minutes.
01:25:06.800 --> 01:25:12.960
Now he shot the ball very well at 38.6% from three on six attempts.
01:25:13.119 --> 01:25:17.119
His true shooting percentage was 0.620, which is great.
01:25:17.279 --> 01:25:26.239
His PR was five was 15.8, and his win share sport per 48 was.135.
01:25:26.960 --> 01:25:29.840
His box plus minus wasn't awesome.
01:25:30.319 --> 01:25:32.399
But here's the thing.
01:25:32.960 --> 01:25:36.960
The tip is the only thing that matters.
01:25:37.359 --> 01:25:49.279
That dude played incredible defense, he was super clutch during the playoffs, he hit shots, he was around the ball all the time.
01:25:50.319 --> 01:25:57.359
He had a um effective field goal percentage in the playoffs of 67.2%.
01:26:00.000 --> 01:26:06.319
It's the highest in playoff history for somebody who had a hundred and fifty plus attempts.
01:26:07.680 --> 01:26:10.399
Tell me that you're not clutch.
01:26:12.399 --> 01:26:14.319
Dude was awesome.
01:26:15.439 --> 01:26:19.760
We love OG and Anobi on this podcast.
01:26:20.560 --> 01:26:28.319
Now the Robinson to Drummond situation, you can sit here and say, hmm, how's that gonna work out?
01:26:29.359 --> 01:26:31.520
Robinson now in Boston.
01:26:31.680 --> 01:26:38.640
He gave him 60 games last year, 19 minutes per game, 5.7 points and 8.8 reruns.
01:26:38.880 --> 01:26:46.079
Now, drumming, 19.5 minutes a game, 6.4 points and 8.4 rebounds.
01:26:46.159 --> 01:26:49.600
I'm telling you, he was just the Robinson replacement.
01:26:50.399 --> 01:26:51.199
That's all.
01:26:51.840 --> 01:26:54.560
I mean, you couldn't have done better than that.
01:26:55.760 --> 01:26:57.039
You know what I'm saying?
01:26:57.359 --> 01:27:01.359
Now, do they still have the other cast of characters like Mikhail Bridges?
01:27:01.600 --> 01:27:04.159
100% Miles McBride still here, yep.
01:27:04.319 --> 01:27:06.319
He's still gonna be DM fools up.
01:27:06.560 --> 01:27:10.960
We also got our guy, Grant Theft Alvarado, you know what I'm saying?
01:27:11.039 --> 01:27:15.760
He's gonna be bringing just the Moxie and the pressure on the ball.
01:27:16.079 --> 01:27:21.279
Now, does Mohammed Diora play a more significant role?
01:27:21.439 --> 01:27:25.840
How about their rookie Sergio De La Rea?
01:27:26.399 --> 01:27:28.880
We will see how this works out.
01:27:29.039 --> 01:27:39.840
But they got a couple guys who I'm looking forward to seeing them again a couple couple minutes on the court, and it's Dioire and uh De LaRea.
01:27:40.319 --> 01:27:46.319
A lot of those two kids don't want to see them develop as far as turn, but the Knicks are going for another championship.
01:27:46.399 --> 01:27:48.000
So, how do they get there?
01:27:48.640 --> 01:27:56.720
Brunson stays steady, towns stay steady, but obviously, towns has the contract uh weighing over him.
01:27:56.880 --> 01:27:58.479
We'll see how that goes.
01:27:58.720 --> 01:28:03.359
Now, with that, we Are they gonna win enough games?
01:28:03.520 --> 01:28:05.439
Are they gonna have a championship hangover?
01:28:06.560 --> 01:28:12.159
If there was a team not to have one, it's gonna be this next team because who is leader?
01:28:13.439 --> 01:28:16.159
Brunson is unflapable, dude.
01:28:16.479 --> 01:28:18.479
He's just unflappable.
01:28:20.560 --> 01:28:24.720
But fifty-two and a half is a big number.
01:28:25.279 --> 01:28:28.880
But I'm gonna tell you right now, the Knicks are going over.
01:28:29.439 --> 01:28:32.800
The Knicks are going over their win total.
01:28:33.119 --> 01:28:37.680
They're gonna get to 54 games, one, something like that.
01:28:37.840 --> 01:28:44.239
They're gonna be the team that's favorite coming out the east again.
01:28:46.399 --> 01:28:47.039
You know?
01:28:48.079 --> 01:28:50.880
So and the cover is not bare.
01:28:51.840 --> 01:28:53.760
The cover is not bare.
01:28:54.399 --> 01:29:02.880
So if they need to make a trade, if something is lacking somewhere, they still have three first round picks that they can deal from.
01:29:04.239 --> 01:29:06.000
So we'll see how it all goes.
01:29:06.079 --> 01:29:08.319
But I think that the Knicks are gonna be awesome.
01:29:08.479 --> 01:29:10.399
I think I don't know if they're gonna repeat.
01:29:10.640 --> 01:29:14.239
We'll get to that when we get to like predictions or whatever.
01:29:14.399 --> 01:29:18.000
And here's how we do it here at Front Runner Podcast Collective.
01:29:18.479 --> 01:29:23.600
Everybody won't tell you what their finals uh situation is gonna be.
01:29:24.000 --> 01:29:26.560
We're telling you who who's gonna get to the playoffs.
01:29:26.720 --> 01:29:30.960
We're not gonna necessarily tell you who's gonna get to the finals until guess what?
01:29:31.760 --> 01:29:33.680
We get to the playoffs.
01:29:34.640 --> 01:29:36.560
And we do it series by series.
01:29:36.720 --> 01:29:41.199
Oh, this part the this team's gonna win the series, this team's gonna win the series, and whatever case may be.
01:29:41.439 --> 01:29:42.720
And here's why.
01:29:42.960 --> 01:29:45.279
So you haven't been with us for the long haul.
01:29:45.439 --> 01:29:47.359
Like this is you new for you.
01:29:48.000 --> 01:29:49.439
That's how we do it.
01:29:49.760 --> 01:29:55.199
But I do think the Knicks have a really good chance of coming out of the East.
01:29:55.439 --> 01:29:57.199
That's what I will tell you.
01:29:57.600 --> 01:30:01.039
Now, this is a long season, a lot of shit could happen.
01:30:01.359 --> 01:30:07.039
Somebody could get injured, somebody could say, if you don't pay me, I'm a pout.
01:30:07.359 --> 01:30:10.399
You can s a whole bunch of stuff could happen.
01:30:12.000 --> 01:30:23.600
But I like the Knicks, I like the the makeup of the team, I like who their leader is, and what what he's able to block out and what have you.
01:30:24.399 --> 01:30:28.000
So I do like their window staying open a little bit longer.
01:30:28.239 --> 01:30:31.520
So that is the Atlantic Division.
01:30:31.680 --> 01:30:34.479
I want to thank you guys for listening to this podcast.
01:30:34.720 --> 01:30:40.880
It did run long, that's okay, because we had a lot of shit that we needed to get to, and it was great.
01:30:41.199 --> 01:30:45.840
So the Knicks, best team in the Atlantic division.
01:30:46.079 --> 01:30:47.840
Who would have thought that?
01:30:48.960 --> 01:30:57.600
I picked them over the Avengers team of the Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics.
01:30:58.560 --> 01:31:01.840
Good luck in their chase of the Knicks.
01:31:02.960 --> 01:31:04.720
We'll see how it all works out.
01:31:04.960 --> 01:31:15.439
Boston fans, let me know how your cost-cutting measures go over the next three or four months in Boston.
01:31:15.760 --> 01:31:20.640
I know you guys gotta be shy-eyeing that new owner right about now.
01:31:21.119 --> 01:31:23.119
Is he turning into John Henry?
01:31:23.279 --> 01:31:24.079
Just let me know.
01:31:24.239 --> 01:31:30.640
Hit me up on Twitter or on X, as you want to put it, at uh frontrunner PC.
01:31:30.960 --> 01:31:35.439
That's frontrunner, P as in Paul, C is in Charles.
01:31:35.920 --> 01:31:42.720
And also you can hit up the the other social account, which is at socially underscore FRPC.
01:31:43.199 --> 01:31:43.920
You know what I'm saying?
01:31:44.079 --> 01:31:47.279
Follow us on all the all the social medias.
01:31:47.680 --> 01:31:57.760
FRPC events on IG, FRPC Vince on TikTok, FRPC events on so on YouTube, you know what I'm saying?
01:31:58.239 --> 01:32:00.560
You know where to find us.
01:32:01.119 --> 01:32:10.000
So with that being said, um, share this episode with somebody in your group chat that really needs it.
01:32:10.560 --> 01:32:12.479
Pull up on us on social media.
01:32:12.560 --> 01:32:17.279
I gave you all the social medias so you know how to get them.
01:32:17.840 --> 01:32:32.640
And now before we get up out of here, it's the one thing that I always mean to say to you is this the best part of you is you, not your win-loss record, not your timeline, not your algorithm, just you.
01:32:33.119 --> 01:32:35.119
You just the way you are.
01:32:36.000 --> 01:32:51.279
We want you to continue to surround yourself with beautiful people who actually give you light, the ones who bring you insight, the joy, and the real accountability that makes you you and makes you productive.
01:32:51.520 --> 01:32:53.520
That is your max deal.
01:32:53.760 --> 01:33:01.600
Appreciate them out loud and do not wait on a later day that nobody has promised.
01:33:02.399 --> 01:33:07.680
If you see something that somebody makes you feel good or whatever, let them know right away, man.
01:33:07.760 --> 01:33:09.199
Hey, I really appreciate you.
01:33:09.279 --> 01:33:10.560
Thank you so much.
01:33:11.039 --> 01:33:15.279
Now, here at FRPC, we want to be your hoop family.
01:33:15.520 --> 01:33:17.439
We're gonna be loud sometimes.
01:33:17.680 --> 01:33:22.640
We might get some things wrong, but we're gonna come back and we're gonna own that.
01:33:23.520 --> 01:33:28.239
But we will always respect your brain because anybody can yell a take.
01:33:28.560 --> 01:33:31.039
Very few can actually defend a thought.
01:33:31.359 --> 01:33:37.600
Until the next episode, keep your mind sharp, your heart open, and your circle tight.
01:33:37.840 --> 01:33:45.680
Protect your peace like cap space and never waste it on bad basketball or bad energy.
01:33:45.920 --> 01:33:47.600
I'm Vince, and we're out.
01:33:47.760 --> 01:33:48.479
Take care.