Episode 341: Draft Retrospective and Season Preview

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Welcome to episode three forty one of Flags Fly Forever,
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a baseball perspectives fantasy baseball podcast on Mike Gianella and
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with me on Opening Day Night.
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Sort of or mostly is John Haglund?
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What what is? What is Opening Day? Really? Anymore?
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I did you?
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Did you watch much of the Giants Yankees? We're recording
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on Thursday?
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It should be yeah, Thursday, March Thursday, March twenty sixth,
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one day after the Netflix Yankees Giantscape. No, I watched
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very little with any of it. Like like you, I
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had I had to pick up one of my kids
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from work, and uh, I had to drop help that
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child drop off food at a friend's house. That became
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a whole thing. And so no, you don't need to
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hear about all that. But I didn't watch much, watch
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very little, if any of the game.
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Yeah, I don't.
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I don't want to be a, you know, an uber traditionalist,
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but I just I don't know.
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The vibes were off for me.
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And let you know, as we were alluding to, I
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had to go to a high school orientation and at
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first I was like, I gotta go.
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To this same and miss the game.
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And at the end of the you know afterwards, I
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was very much happy to have not seen it well.
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So, so when you say the vibes were off, was
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it because it was on Netflix?
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Like?
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Was it because it's like the one weird game on
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a Wednesday night? Was it a combination of those things the.
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Above, Yeah, I think it was the way. I guess
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some people were okay with and maybe even enjoyed the
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sort of the spectacle of it beforehand.
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I watched a little.
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Bit of that, but you know, you really do appreciate
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networks and companies that sort of have it down as
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far as how to produce and present amazing game, and
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it felt like Netflix was was just it was just
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sort of too much of everything, And you know, I
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don't want to. I don't need someone yelling at me
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to get excited about the baseball season.
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I'm already excited about.
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Yeah.
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I watched like by contrast, like I watched the Mets
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opener today on Peacock and others pointed this out, so
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it was the only one to point it out. It
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just felt like the people like the broadcast, particularly the
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production values, but even the broadcasters, it just felt like
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they appreciated the game.
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They let the game breathe. They didn't. It wasn't perfect.
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You know, there's some things they didn't like, but it
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just felt like people who understood baseball and understood that
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their audience likes baseball, and you don't need to be
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saying or inferring every few seconds, isn't this fun?
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Right?
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I saw I saw comments on on Blue Sky and
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I don't remember exactly, but it sort of summed it
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up where you know, the the WBC and the non
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American teams, the WBC seemed to be having fun and
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it felt organic, whereas Netflix was the opposite. It just
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felt non organic. It felt like, you know, a child's
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birthday party.
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Where it got it was a great party we're all
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having right, or that you know, the kid doesn't want
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to have the party, but but it's kind of forced
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and the relatives are there and it's just like, yeah,
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can we go home?
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Right?
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It's like, no, it's your birthday party.
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That's that's what it was yourself, That's yeah, that's what
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a lot of people, but goddam president said it felt like, yeah,
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tell me about your childhood.
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That could be a whole other part that'ld be saw
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on some Patreon content one day yeah, really, I don't
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want to be so negative because we haven't we haven't
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recorded for a couple of weeks. I was out of
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town for a bit, and you know, we were both
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doing our respective drafts or some of them, and we
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are now obviously into the baseball season, if only just
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and so you know, for this, for this show, I
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thought what we would do is kind of do a
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sort of a retrospective of draft season and a preview
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of the coming season, largely through a fantasy lens. But nothing,
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nothing too too crazy. We have I sent you some
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some questions and some talking points, and so we're just
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kind of going to kind of go through and you know,
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take stock of where we've been over these last couple
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of months and what we are, uh sort of anticipating
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for the coming season. So that's what we're gonna do. Alrighty, alrighty.
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So yeah, So, so Job put together a list of
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questions and you know a lot of these are I
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would say boiler plate, but there are questions you hear
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on like other podcasts or articles, and we're just gonna
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go through these. So, so, Job, are you gonna ask
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the questions and I'd answer them or Okay, Okay, so.
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The first part is viral away and we can both,
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you know, both answer them. The first part has to
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do with taking stock on the draft season that we
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just went through. And so my first question is what
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trends did you notice overall across the I think you
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said nine drafts eight or nine so far?
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Answered seven because I've got to left, including like two
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this weekend to the old school, you know, only is
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the start of the season. So what I noticed, I
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noticed a couple of things. And I don't know how
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new any of these trends are, but a lot of
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people were waiting on starting pictures and is skewing or
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avoiding some or all of their aces they were grabbing,
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and particularly in non NFBC formats, And I don't about you,
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I think we've talked about this. I've seen more chatter
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about zero started starting picture strategies that misnomer that that's
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not what I did. In tout words, what people are
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talking about is not taking a starting pitcher until like
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the eleventh round or the fifteenth round or whatever, and
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then just loading up with all their starting pitching late.
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And I think what's happening is that people are recognizing
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so I've written for years about how pitching's unpredictable, pitching
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the bottom is erratic, and I think people are finally
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grasping this. There were analysts for years who were talking
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about pitching or treating pitching like it was twenty fifteen,
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and that every staff has three or four reliable starters
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and then one or two fringing starters. But you could
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just build the staff at the begind of the year, like, yeah,
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I'm gonna take six or seven starters.
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But it's still evolving.
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It feels to me like people aren't quite there yet
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and some of the theories that they have while they're
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getting closer aren't quite right.
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I don't know if you found this or not.
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Yeah, it was pretty much the same thing that I noticed,
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which is I mean, the way I put it was
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that in in non NFBC drafts, I felt like, I
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would say more my experience was that pictures were more starting,
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pictures were more properly valued and not not necessarily pushed up.
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I do you know, I do wonder if so. There
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were clearly a top three, you know, in snake drafts
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going in the first round. And we talked a little
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bit about this on our last podcast. But I wonder
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if that was that fluidity created a bit of a
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buying opportunity, because if you truly believe that there is
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a kind of next tier that is, you know, head
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and shoulders above the rest, I'm talking about like the
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the logan Gilbert, Chris Saale, Brian Woo, George Kirby, Jacob
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de Grahm, that that sort of tier mostly like third
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or fourth round pictures, if there wasn't maybe a buying
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opportunity to get some of those guys in the fourth round,
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if in a snake draft, or to get them for
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a few dollars cheaper than you otherwise would have.
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But I don't know.
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I mean, it's it seems like it's a very fluid
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like the community as a whole is still trying to
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figure out how to price starting pitching.
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Yeah, this is a tough year too, because a lot
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of what is happening is that there are a lot
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of pictures in the top thirty, top forty five who
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are either like rookies or not quite rookies where they're
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just over that inning limit of fifty innings, or pictures
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with an injury history like Uri Perez kind of stands
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out like Blake Stell was there before he tumbled in drafts,
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and this is part of the challenge. Right to me,
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the most appealing thing about the so called zero starting
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picture strategy is that you know, outside of those ace
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as you mentioned, outside of a handful of other starters,
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like saying Dylan sees, for example, who's durable, but we
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know his numbers have been all over the place. But
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the injuries and the rookies are what kind of get
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to me, Like I saw the prices, like starting with
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Nolan McLean and going on down the prices on these
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young pictures, and it's like, well, I get it, Like
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and you know, Jacob Zeroski today was great, and I
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understand it's like, well, if he does that for twenty
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five starts, that's going to be amazing value. To be
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really happy, but we know the deal like pictures, These
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pictures can look great for one or two starts, look
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terrible for two or three starts, and never get into
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a rhythm, and then you're like.
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Well, what did I buy here? So that's part of it.
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People are kind of grasping and groping around and maybe
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in two or three years when some of these pictures
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are more established and are the next level of ACES,
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then maybe we'll be there and many of them.
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Hopefully stay healthy.
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Maybe we'll be at a different point where once again
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the ACES bubble back up.
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May maybe this is just cyclical.
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Yeah, it could be.
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I do always I mean my I've long been pretty
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resistant to paying up for young pictures in the category
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you just mentioned. The rookies or those who do date
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huge and maybe got a partial season last year. It
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just seems like there's so many headwinds going against them.
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I mean, there's yeah, there's just adjusting to major league hitters.
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There is the question of whether or not they're going
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to be load managed by the respective teams, you know,
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not just on a accumulative basis, but on a per
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game basis as well. And I feel like, you know,
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just in my mind, the reward and the upside is
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really tantalizing, but no one really wants to entertain the possibility,
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not that it's going to be disastrous, but that it's
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just going to be up and down and the end
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of the season you're not really gonna see uh an
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ACE or someone just below an ACE as far as
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the stats go.
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Yeah, So the other The other trend that I kind
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of jotted down here is that I noticed there was
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more volume in drafts with relief pitchers and at the
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back end of draft in particular, and even more mindful
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strategies with really pitching. And another thing, people once again
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believing that I was trend has been going on for
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a few years that managers are going to be committee
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and or save shares based, which I just haven't found
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to be true for the most part, but that's how
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people are drafting, like people are kind of drafting it.
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And there was a lot of that in the last
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week or two, very reactive.
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You know, there's news.
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Out of Pittsburgh that, oh, data stands Hana might not
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actually be the closer, and people being very reactive about
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that and taking him many rounds later. And I still
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don't buy it. I feel like once the season starts,
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unless it's a bad bullpen and there's just not a
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good reliever, that most teams are going to pick a closer.
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And yes he might not get nearly as many saves,
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but it's not because managers like to mix a match.
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It's because managers don't let relievers pitch three or four
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days in a row. Like they used to a few
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years ago.
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Yeah, it would be interesting if someone had the time.
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I don't have the time.
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You probably don't have the time to go back and
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look at like pre season projections for because I know,
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you know, Baseball Perspectives does a lots you know, sort
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of the playing time in terms of percentages. And I
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used to do this with Darius Austen, you know, when
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we would work on the depth charts at BP and
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try to project the closers and the bullpen and to
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compare teams that were projected to be more or less committees,
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like say, you know, fifty to fifty, sixty forty, even
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like sixty five thirty five, and how those seasons actually
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shook out.
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Because we've talked about this, you.
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Know, there is a lot of talk about committees, but
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seldom in practice do teams really truly operate according.
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To Yeah, but what happens more sometimes And the Phillies
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did this in the pre Joan and Geran Air. I
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think that's always like you're yars Ago was you know
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before the middle of last year.
250
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We remember Jordan Romano, right or you.
251
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Know Alverado, But the Phillies were less of a committee
252
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and more of a hot hand sort of bullpen where
253
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you know, if Romano was hot or if Alverado is hot,
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it's like, sure, you're the closer, but you know, if
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you run into a bad patch where we're just gonna
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swap somebody else in for like a month or you know,
257
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half a month or two months or or whatever, that.
258
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Just still feels very atypical to me. And again, it's just.
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People just get weird about relievers and and some of it.
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And this is the trend that's just continuing, continuing so
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much to that FBC base that people cannot get out
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of the saves mentality in their head and they get
263
00:13:43.519 --> 00:13:46.480
so obsessed with I have to get your relievers with
264
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with twenty five to thirty. You know, thirty saves a
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piece minimum, and it's like, well, good luck. Like a
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lot of relievers just don't especially the thirty saved target.
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A lot of relievers just don't do that anymore. Like
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you're you're hitting trying to hit a category target that
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does really makes sense.
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Yeah, and if you try to do the two relievers
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in the first like you know, six or seven rounds,
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you've you've really passed up a lot of opportunities to
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draft in other places. Okay, there were there any new
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things that you did this year?
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Well, the zero starter strategy, the zero starter strategy in
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taut but we talked about that. I don't think we
277
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need to talk about it again, and frankly, it's not
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very helpful to people in leagues where you can't do that.
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The second thing I found myself. You know, as much
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as I said people were waiting on starters, I found
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myself doing that in the middle, so even more than
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I've done in the past. So I was still doing
283
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the three starter strategy at the top, but I was
284
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taking an ace or a quasi ace and then waiting
285
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until like the ninth or tenth or eleventh round to
286
00:14:50.519 --> 00:14:53.759
take the next two. And it's in fifteen team mix,
287
00:14:53.799 --> 00:14:56.799
and then I was really waiting in most legs like
288
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a long long time, and then just taking a cluster
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of pictures with the mentality that all those pictures from
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your SP four onward you're going to be cycling through
291
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a lot of those arms. I'm talking about this, right,
292
00:15:10.840 --> 00:15:13.879
it's the illusion of safety with that SP four if
293
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you take him and say the fourteenth round as opposed
294
00:15:18.200 --> 00:15:20.320
to the twenty or the nineteenth round where it's like, okay,
295
00:15:20.320 --> 00:15:24.240
well you're taking that picture earlier. He might be better,
296
00:15:24.360 --> 00:15:26.960
really more accurately. He might make it through the season
297
00:15:27.039 --> 00:15:29.879
and give you one hundred and eighty two hundred more innings,
298
00:15:30.799 --> 00:15:32.200
But what are you really buying there?
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00:15:32.240 --> 00:15:34.840
Like, what are you getting? So that was the.
300
00:15:35.639 --> 00:15:37.720
Second thing, and then the other thing I did a
301
00:15:37.720 --> 00:15:41.039
little bit. I pushed a little bit harder on rookies.
302
00:15:41.080 --> 00:15:43.519
I don't ever state this because I don't have any
303
00:15:43.639 --> 00:15:46.519
JJ Weatherholt. I have a Kep McGonagle, but it's in
304
00:15:46.519 --> 00:15:49.279
a keeper league where I would have had him anyway.
305
00:15:49.360 --> 00:15:51.840
I did get Connor Griffin and TGFBI, and that was
306
00:15:52.039 --> 00:15:54.120
that was aggressive. I knew he gets sent down, and
307
00:15:54.159 --> 00:15:56.200
I wasn't, like, you know, putting my hopes on him
308
00:15:56.240 --> 00:15:58.759
being up. But I didn't push a little harder. When
309
00:15:58.759 --> 00:16:00.759
I say rookies, I mean rookie hitters. As we just
310
00:16:00.799 --> 00:16:03.840
talked about pictures, because this does seem like a good
311
00:16:04.000 --> 00:16:07.159
year to do some of that speculating and not even
312
00:16:07.240 --> 00:16:09.279
thinking that you're going to win with those hitters. But
313
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I just looked at them compared to some of the
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00:16:12.320 --> 00:16:15.480
offense in the middle, particularly of the draft, particularly at middle,
315
00:16:15.519 --> 00:16:17.799
infield and elsewhere, is like, you know what, I like
316
00:16:17.919 --> 00:16:20.600
some of these shots as opposed to some of these
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00:16:20.639 --> 00:16:23.360
boring veterans where their ceilings don't look too high.
318
00:16:23.840 --> 00:16:27.320
Yeah, and I think after pick two hundred or so,
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00:16:27.639 --> 00:16:31.759
you're really there's no there's there's really no downside taking
320
00:16:31.960 --> 00:16:36.279
the rookies. So yeah, I didn't really end up with
321
00:16:36.480 --> 00:16:39.600
I would have liked to have gotten McGonagall or a
322
00:16:39.639 --> 00:16:44.799
weather Hold or a Carson Benge, but I didn't.
323
00:16:44.840 --> 00:16:45.720
I wasn't avoiding them.
324
00:16:45.720 --> 00:16:48.039
I just there was always someone in the room who
325
00:16:48.120 --> 00:16:53.120
was more aggressive. Yeah, I guess you know one thing
326
00:16:53.159 --> 00:16:56.000
I did that I I tried and this was kind
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00:16:56.000 --> 00:16:59.559
of specific to my home league, which is a six
328
00:16:59.639 --> 00:17:04.559
by S league, and but it does I think relate
329
00:17:04.599 --> 00:17:09.799
to closers in our discussion about closers. Is I just
330
00:17:10.519 --> 00:17:15.480
basically punted saves in that league, with saves being only
331
00:17:15.559 --> 00:17:19.079
one of six pitching categories rather than one of five.
332
00:17:20.559 --> 00:17:22.960
You know, it gave me, I don't know.
333
00:17:22.839 --> 00:17:29.160
Maybe another twenty or thirty dollars at the table. We'll
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00:17:29.160 --> 00:17:31.359
see how it works out. You know, I tried to
335
00:17:31.599 --> 00:17:33.559
have a we have an innings cap in that league,
336
00:17:33.599 --> 00:17:36.359
so I really tried to. I grabbed a couple of
337
00:17:36.359 --> 00:17:40.559
relievers that are sort of high strikeout, good ratio relievers,
338
00:17:40.880 --> 00:17:46.759
and hopefully I'll have enough in the other categories to.
339
00:17:45.480 --> 00:17:47.799
To be in the top third at least.
340
00:17:48.240 --> 00:17:50.359
So well, this goes This goes back to the point
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00:17:50.400 --> 00:17:52.799
before that that league you're talking about was an auction league,
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00:17:52.880 --> 00:17:56.119
right as opposed to a draft. So this goes back
343
00:17:56.160 --> 00:17:58.440
to the saves point before. And I don't turn this
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00:17:58.480 --> 00:18:02.640
into the whole reliever saves podcasts, but absolutely like in
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00:18:02.960 --> 00:18:05.720
an auction format, if you feel like the closer prices
346
00:18:05.720 --> 00:18:08.799
are too expensive, people are being too aggressive in a keeper,
347
00:18:08.920 --> 00:18:12.920
ears with a keeper, but particularly in a keeper where
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00:18:13.480 --> 00:18:15.599
like most of the closers are gone and there isn't
349
00:18:15.599 --> 00:18:18.359
a rule where you have to have a certain number
350
00:18:18.400 --> 00:18:20.240
of saves. Yeah that, by the way, my way of
351
00:18:20.319 --> 00:18:22.640
telling you that that league we're during this weekend, there
352
00:18:22.720 --> 00:18:24.119
is a role like that.
353
00:18:24.160 --> 00:18:25.880
We can talk about that offline.
354
00:18:26.119 --> 00:18:29.640
But yeah, so if there's nothing like that in place,
355
00:18:29.880 --> 00:18:32.000
there's really no reason not to look at a draft
356
00:18:32.039 --> 00:18:34.359
and go, you know what, screw it. I don't need
357
00:18:34.400 --> 00:18:38.480
to draft like an established closer and sink all this
358
00:18:38.759 --> 00:18:42.559
budget capital or draft capital into that player. I've done
359
00:18:42.559 --> 00:18:44.640
it before. You the two leagues that won last year,
360
00:18:44.640 --> 00:18:47.759
they're both both mono leagues. But I won those leagues
361
00:18:47.799 --> 00:18:51.160
without a closer and finishing at the bottom or near
362
00:18:51.200 --> 00:18:54.359
the bottom and saves. It's very doable. And I'm not
363
00:18:54.400 --> 00:18:56.839
saying that you should do that. I'm saying that there.
364
00:18:57.039 --> 00:18:59.640
And frankly, you shouldn't up. You shouldn't go into a
365
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draft dumping categories. Do what I say, not what I do.
366
00:19:05.039 --> 00:19:09.319
But in all seriousness, yeah, like if you are in
367
00:19:09.359 --> 00:19:11.440
a keeper league in particular, and you're like, well, I
368
00:19:11.799 --> 00:19:14.200
know how this plays out, I'm gonna wind up paying
369
00:19:14.200 --> 00:19:16.599
way too much for saves, don't do it.
370
00:19:17.319 --> 00:19:20.960
Yeah yeah, yeah, I mean that was that was my thinking.
371
00:19:21.440 --> 00:19:26.559
And also it is a trading league, so you know,
372
00:19:26.640 --> 00:19:30.240
nothing is irreversible, so I can see how things play
373
00:19:30.240 --> 00:19:34.240
out for the first month or so and act accordingly.
374
00:19:36.000 --> 00:19:40.440
But yeah, so so the next The next questions are
375
00:19:40.680 --> 00:19:42.799
more of the boiler played variety. But I think it's
376
00:19:42.799 --> 00:19:46.680
interesting because I imagine the answers to these questions are sort
377
00:19:46.720 --> 00:19:50.640
of going to speak to some of the things we've
378
00:19:50.640 --> 00:19:54.759
been saying over the previous season, and so for both
379
00:19:54.799 --> 00:19:58.440
hitter and picture Mike, who were your most drafted players
380
00:19:58.799 --> 00:20:01.359
or so far? Who are your most drafted players?
381
00:20:01.400 --> 00:20:03.759
Well, most is interesting because I think the hitters won't
382
00:20:03.799 --> 00:20:06.440
surprise you at all. The hitters there's out of the
383
00:20:06.440 --> 00:20:09.880
seven leagues I've done so far, I've got four of each,
384
00:20:10.440 --> 00:20:13.160
and it's cal Rawley and Trevor's story. Those are the hitters.
385
00:20:14.559 --> 00:20:16.559
The pictures, there's four of each is probably a little
386
00:20:16.559 --> 00:20:20.799
more surprising just because they're not exciting. Pictures are Merrill,
387
00:20:20.880 --> 00:20:23.279
Kelly and this one I just can't believe because it
388
00:20:23.279 --> 00:20:25.680
seems like nobody I've heard, you know, Sarah's mentioned it,
389
00:20:25.720 --> 00:20:27.680
but nobody is really interested in drafting him at all.
390
00:20:28.200 --> 00:20:31.279
Adrian Morojan, that's.
391
00:20:31.160 --> 00:20:31.720
One of mine.
392
00:20:31.880 --> 00:20:35.160
Yeah, yeah, well yeah, I mean we talked about him
393
00:20:35.160 --> 00:20:37.799
a little bit in the Reliever. You know, as far
394
00:20:37.880 --> 00:20:40.319
as he's he is one of those pictures who could
395
00:20:40.359 --> 00:20:43.880
actually one of those relievers, not a closer, but could
396
00:20:43.920 --> 00:20:47.160
actually be be an ascid in wins.
397
00:20:47.279 --> 00:20:51.839
He I think will pitch maybe a few more innings
398
00:20:51.880 --> 00:20:53.240
and your average reliever.
399
00:20:53.400 --> 00:20:56.960
Sometimes he goes for more than an inning, but he
400
00:20:57.119 --> 00:21:00.160
is that kind of like leverage guy in the middle innings.
401
00:21:00.400 --> 00:21:03.319
So you know he does tend to pick up.
402
00:21:03.400 --> 00:21:05.519
I think we said he had thirteen wins last year.
403
00:21:05.480 --> 00:21:08.160
Right he did, which you can't rely on that, but
404
00:21:08.359 --> 00:21:11.519
of course, yeah, but that's the thing, like the relievers,
405
00:21:11.559 --> 00:21:14.039
Like if he wins seven or eight and has great,
406
00:21:14.039 --> 00:21:16.960
great stats and strikeouts, like, there's just so much value,
407
00:21:17.799 --> 00:21:19.920
even in a mixed league, the value of looking at
408
00:21:20.000 --> 00:21:22.519
him versus looking at some starter where you're like, like,
409
00:21:22.559 --> 00:21:25.359
do I have to put put the reliever in?
410
00:21:25.440 --> 00:21:27.160
Put? Put put the setup reliever?
411
00:21:28.559 --> 00:21:31.839
You know, roll roll with hopefully like two solid innings
412
00:21:31.839 --> 00:21:33.240
and maybe you scoop up a win.
413
00:21:34.400 --> 00:21:35.720
I feel like I'm gonna be doing a lot of
414
00:21:35.720 --> 00:21:39.920
that this year. Yeah, my I had a lot of
415
00:21:40.039 --> 00:21:43.000
I don't think I had anyone. So I've I've drafted
416
00:21:43.039 --> 00:21:45.799
four so far, and I don't know that I had
417
00:21:45.839 --> 00:21:49.319
any more than two, but three that I so.
418
00:21:49.359 --> 00:21:50.039
There are a few.
419
00:21:49.839 --> 00:21:54.640
Examples of multiples, but I'll mention a few here.
420
00:21:54.759 --> 00:21:57.079
So I have Cal Rawley in two leagues.
421
00:21:57.519 --> 00:22:00.000
One of them is the Draft Champions we're doing together.
422
00:22:01.160 --> 00:22:04.119
I have a couple of Austin Riley's, I have a
423
00:22:04.119 --> 00:22:06.799
couple of Matt Chapman's, and I have a couple of
424
00:22:06.839 --> 00:22:09.720
Byron Buckston's and that is kind of an odd one
425
00:22:09.720 --> 00:22:12.799
to me because I, in no way, shape or form
426
00:22:13.200 --> 00:22:17.039
was targeting Byron Buckston. But you know, it is a
427
00:22:17.079 --> 00:22:21.599
testament to the fact that sometimes a player just sort
428
00:22:21.599 --> 00:22:24.640
of falls to you or is you know, right place,
429
00:22:24.759 --> 00:22:28.440
right time, and you know that's fine.
430
00:22:30.640 --> 00:22:33.519
Well, it's funny that you say that, because, like, you know,
431
00:22:33.599 --> 00:22:35.920
looking at like players further down on my list, like
432
00:22:36.279 --> 00:22:38.880
Colemins Art is an example. I have three of him,
433
00:22:38.920 --> 00:22:41.480
and I did not go into draft season thinking, oh
434
00:22:41.559 --> 00:22:42.559
I want Colemins Art.
435
00:22:42.640 --> 00:22:45.039
I really like him. You know, he's great.
436
00:22:45.039 --> 00:22:46.960
Even his mom says that.
437
00:22:47.039 --> 00:22:49.920
To be honest, right, And it just seemed like everyone
438
00:22:49.960 --> 00:22:52.039
it was more than everyone else was cool around him
439
00:22:52.039 --> 00:22:53.880
than I was. Or like when that point in the
440
00:22:53.920 --> 00:22:56.200
draft came up, I noticed he was slipping past ADP
441
00:22:56.799 --> 00:22:59.119
and I wasn't draft against ADP. It was just more like, well,
442
00:22:59.160 --> 00:23:00.960
this is where this there is to my ranks, and no,
443
00:23:01.039 --> 00:23:04.519
yes wants him. I'm fine taking him. Like I I
444
00:23:04.599 --> 00:23:08.559
get it from the standpoint that the platoon differential is starking.
445
00:23:08.599 --> 00:23:10.119
Particular in a weekly league.
446
00:23:10.680 --> 00:23:12.759
It's like, okay, well, you know, might you might have
447
00:23:12.799 --> 00:23:14.880
to like just suck up the times where he's sitting
448
00:23:14.880 --> 00:23:17.720
against lefties or hitting against lefties and doing poorly, but
449
00:23:18.240 --> 00:23:20.279
you know, a NFBC in particular, where you can kind
450
00:23:20.279 --> 00:23:22.759
of cycling it out. I was a little surprised that
451
00:23:22.839 --> 00:23:25.680
he was just like out there because it's not like
452
00:23:25.680 --> 00:23:27.720
he was a top like one fifty pick.
453
00:23:27.759 --> 00:23:28.240
Well.
454
00:23:28.279 --> 00:23:29.519
I feel like I kind of hapened to start him
455
00:23:29.519 --> 00:23:32.160
every week because he went so you know, yeah, when
456
00:23:32.200 --> 00:23:33.880
there's such a high level like he was outside the
457
00:23:33.880 --> 00:23:34.640
top two hundred.
458
00:23:34.880 --> 00:23:35.640
Yeah, I mean I was.
459
00:23:35.720 --> 00:23:37.200
I was sort of looking at him as kind of
460
00:23:37.200 --> 00:23:39.720
a life preserver at first base, you know, sort of
461
00:23:39.759 --> 00:23:42.920
the last I mean, I would say I definitely wanted
462
00:23:42.960 --> 00:23:45.759
someone before Manzarto. But if for some reason, which is
463
00:23:45.759 --> 00:23:47.920
what happened in the Draft Champions, you know, if we
464
00:23:48.039 --> 00:23:52.200
just hit yeah not just not gone there that it
465
00:23:52.279 --> 00:23:54.279
was even as a platoon, it was going to be
466
00:23:54.319 --> 00:23:56.279
a probably an acceptable option.
467
00:23:57.279 --> 00:23:57.960
Yep. Yeah.
468
00:23:58.599 --> 00:24:01.440
And as far as pictures.
469
00:24:01.000 --> 00:24:04.480
I think, going back to that that San Diego bullpen,
470
00:24:04.559 --> 00:24:07.200
I think my most drafted picture is Jeremiah Strata.
471
00:24:08.079 --> 00:24:10.319
Actually yeah, I like I like him. I like him too,
472
00:24:10.359 --> 00:24:12.559
although I don't have I might have him, wonder.
473
00:24:12.640 --> 00:24:14.440
I think we got him in the draft champions.
474
00:24:14.480 --> 00:24:16.720
Yeah, I don't know if I have anywhere. I don't
475
00:24:16.720 --> 00:24:18.599
know if I have them anywhere else. No, I doe.
476
00:24:18.680 --> 00:24:21.279
Yeah, and that's that's basically like a strikeout play, just
477
00:24:21.480 --> 00:24:23.920
you know. And in my home league where there's an
478
00:24:23.960 --> 00:24:26.680
innings cap, getting the strikeouts per.
479
00:24:26.920 --> 00:24:28.160
Inning is great.
480
00:24:28.319 --> 00:24:30.720
And he was kind of my target for a non
481
00:24:30.799 --> 00:24:34.440
closing reliever to fill out on those weeks when you
482
00:24:34.519 --> 00:24:36.960
didn't have enough starters, because I just you know, think
483
00:24:37.039 --> 00:24:39.119
the the k's are at least going to be there.
484
00:24:39.279 --> 00:24:40.319
I'm looking.
485
00:24:40.359 --> 00:24:43.440
I I was taking relievers, you know, in a lot
486
00:24:43.440 --> 00:24:46.119
of spots, like non closer relievers, but Morehane is the
487
00:24:46.119 --> 00:24:49.960
only one, right. I did a lot of diversification, and
488
00:24:50.000 --> 00:24:50.720
not on purpose.
489
00:24:50.759 --> 00:24:50.920
You know.
490
00:24:51.119 --> 00:24:53.640
This is another point like I've heard people talk about this,
491
00:24:53.759 --> 00:24:55.920
where people say, I don't want to have like the
492
00:24:56.000 --> 00:25:00.039
same player into me leagues. I want to diversify. I
493
00:25:00.079 --> 00:25:01.839
don't worry so much about that. I think in part
494
00:25:01.880 --> 00:25:05.559
because my rankings are set up. That happens organically. Sure,
495
00:25:06.200 --> 00:25:08.960
But yeah, I didn't do that. It just happened that
496
00:25:09.079 --> 00:25:10.599
I wound up with a lot of more hone and then
497
00:25:10.599 --> 00:25:12.519
everywhere else it's like, oh, I have this relief here
498
00:25:12.559 --> 00:25:15.400
and that reliever there, and some of it is these
499
00:25:15.440 --> 00:25:17.119
are relievers, and even even more hone.
500
00:25:17.160 --> 00:25:18.160
I don't want to ever sell him.
501
00:25:18.559 --> 00:25:21.559
They're fungible, like right if things go south, and particularly
502
00:25:21.559 --> 00:25:23.839
the non closer reliever, you're like, Okay, I'm just gonna
503
00:25:24.160 --> 00:25:26.839
pick somebody else up. There are so many relievers, like
504
00:25:26.920 --> 00:25:29.279
just constantly on the wire, even in mono leagues, that
505
00:25:29.319 --> 00:25:30.640
I don't have to sweat this.
506
00:25:31.680 --> 00:25:35.240
I was, I was looking for some relievers to fill
507
00:25:35.240 --> 00:25:37.599
in because I I drafted a couple of pictures that
508
00:25:37.680 --> 00:25:40.920
were on the isle I in my home league, Garrett
509
00:25:40.960 --> 00:25:43.440
Cole and Carlos Radon, and they when they went on
510
00:25:43.480 --> 00:25:46.839
the aisle. Of course I'm looking for other pictures to
511
00:25:47.640 --> 00:25:51.279
fill in, and I was sort of researching very carefully,
512
00:25:51.400 --> 00:25:53.960
and then I was kind of like, what, what the
513
00:25:53.960 --> 00:25:56.279
fuck does it matter? Because it's the pictures from last year.
514
00:25:56.759 --> 00:26:00.799
Who who were those like, you know, amazing relievers with
515
00:26:00.839 --> 00:26:03.960
the great ratios and the great kper nine. Usually it's
516
00:26:04.000 --> 00:26:06.119
going to be a different batch, you know, year to year.
517
00:26:06.200 --> 00:26:10.119
It's really hard to predict those, So yeah, you just
518
00:26:10.160 --> 00:26:13.480
got to kind of you know, site more than likely
519
00:26:13.519 --> 00:26:14.960
you'll be cycling those through.
520
00:26:16.119 --> 00:26:20.359
Okay, sure you missed out on that. You have great
521
00:26:20.400 --> 00:26:21.880
regrets and longings.
522
00:26:22.000 --> 00:26:23.559
Well, I mean regrets are strong.
523
00:26:23.680 --> 00:26:25.640
Probably probably the obvious one on the header side is
524
00:26:25.680 --> 00:26:30.000
Francisco Operas. I really liked him coming into draft season.
525
00:26:31.119 --> 00:26:32.960
I remember if you follow him on Blue Sky or
526
00:26:33.039 --> 00:26:35.400
Chris Towers and CBS talking about this too. I had
527
00:26:35.400 --> 00:26:37.599
a lot of the same feelings, which is, you know
528
00:26:37.640 --> 00:26:40.200
a lot of power young hitters, had some injuries, but
529
00:26:40.240 --> 00:26:43.119
not injuries where I necessarily worry about him chronically.
530
00:26:43.160 --> 00:26:44.559
And by the way, hit a home today.
531
00:26:44.759 --> 00:26:47.400
I thought this before today, like just just seeing and
532
00:26:47.440 --> 00:26:49.480
he's young too, like he's not an older catcher. Just
533
00:26:49.480 --> 00:26:51.400
seems like somebody who, if you put it all together,
534
00:26:51.440 --> 00:26:54.200
could it twenty five to thirty home runs and you
535
00:26:54.240 --> 00:26:56.759
know the average could be poor, but he could also
536
00:26:56.880 --> 00:27:00.279
hit like two fifty. Just felt to me like somebody
537
00:27:00.279 --> 00:27:02.880
who had the potential for breakout and people were sleeping
538
00:27:02.920 --> 00:27:04.400
on as.
539
00:27:04.440 --> 00:27:05.160
It just happened.
540
00:27:05.200 --> 00:27:07.519
I just didn't get him anywhere like either, and I
541
00:27:07.559 --> 00:27:08.880
think that our Draft champions happened.
542
00:27:08.880 --> 00:27:09.960
Either somebody took him.
543
00:27:10.400 --> 00:27:12.319
I was like, oh, you know, just when I was
544
00:27:12.359 --> 00:27:15.480
thinking about him, or it was one situations that.
545
00:27:15.440 --> 00:27:16.480
I already had to catchers.
546
00:27:16.559 --> 00:27:19.319
I think this happened in labor where I took you know,
547
00:27:19.319 --> 00:27:21.680
I well, I know, and labor with Adlee Rushian was
548
00:27:21.720 --> 00:27:23.319
my first catch. Are like, well, the way the rest
549
00:27:23.359 --> 00:27:25.279
of my drafts going, I'm just gonna wait on my
550
00:27:25.319 --> 00:27:26.000
second catcher.
551
00:27:26.319 --> 00:27:27.960
So just just circumstance writing.
552
00:27:27.759 --> 00:27:30.119
To get him where it was like, okay, whatever, and
553
00:27:30.160 --> 00:27:31.559
then the picture and it's gonna make me sound like
554
00:27:31.559 --> 00:27:34.519
a Mets home or is Freddy Peralta And that just
555
00:27:34.599 --> 00:27:37.119
had more to do with the shape of my drafts
556
00:27:37.119 --> 00:27:40.200
and being at the middle or particularly like the back
557
00:27:40.799 --> 00:27:45.440
the Draft Championship together and another league, the other TGFBI.
558
00:27:45.640 --> 00:27:48.400
I was at fifteen, and I wasn't gonna take Freddy
559
00:27:48.400 --> 00:27:50.839
Perrault at forty five, like that was a reach. But
560
00:27:50.960 --> 00:27:54.759
and you know, by seventy five he'd be gone. So yeah,
561
00:27:54.799 --> 00:27:57.039
I like Pralta. I don't even have a great day
562
00:27:57.039 --> 00:27:58.960
to day, but I feel like he's gonna have a
563
00:27:59.000 --> 00:27:59.440
big year.
564
00:28:00.240 --> 00:28:00.720
Like him a lot.
565
00:28:01.079 --> 00:28:04.880
He looks like a good picture. So more so with Alvas,
566
00:28:05.599 --> 00:28:07.319
I'm not the regret kind of drafter.
567
00:28:07.440 --> 00:28:08.559
I'm almost like, well, you know.
568
00:28:08.599 --> 00:28:10.079
I didn't get the guy I didn't get the guy.
569
00:28:10.119 --> 00:28:13.599
I'm more surprised sometimes when I'm like high on a
570
00:28:13.599 --> 00:28:16.079
player and thinking for months, oh I like this guy,
571
00:28:16.240 --> 00:28:17.960
like based on my rank, I'm half him in a
572
00:28:18.000 --> 00:28:19.960
lot of places, and then I get him nowhere.
573
00:28:20.799 --> 00:28:23.119
Yeah, Alvarez is a good one. I didn't I didn't
574
00:28:23.160 --> 00:28:25.720
list him, but he was in that he was very
575
00:28:25.720 --> 00:28:26.279
close to.
576
00:28:28.279 --> 00:28:28.880
In my ranking.
577
00:28:28.880 --> 00:28:31.920
He's very close to Alejandro Kirk and Gabrielle Moreno. And
578
00:28:31.960 --> 00:28:34.640
it seemed like when I was looking for a catcher
579
00:28:34.680 --> 00:28:38.400
at that point that I needed average or I was
580
00:28:38.519 --> 00:28:39.799
I was seeking out average.
581
00:28:39.839 --> 00:28:40.160
And so.
582
00:28:41.680 --> 00:28:44.039
As a tiebreaker, I know I have one each of
583
00:28:44.640 --> 00:28:49.519
Moreno and Kirk and yeah I too, I'm sad to
584
00:28:49.559 --> 00:28:50.720
not have any Albaret.
585
00:28:50.799 --> 00:28:53.319
So the player I said as a hitter was Roman Anthony.
586
00:28:54.519 --> 00:28:56.000
Yeah, he was high on my list too.
587
00:28:56.440 --> 00:29:00.440
Yeah, just you know, it just feels like he's he's
588
00:29:00.480 --> 00:29:02.160
going to put it all together. I know he he
589
00:29:02.400 --> 00:29:06.880
was climbing up the climbing up adp as draft season
590
00:29:06.920 --> 00:29:11.960
went on. But it just I usually, you know, he
591
00:29:12.400 --> 00:29:14.920
it seemed like every draft I was in someone was
592
00:29:14.960 --> 00:29:16.079
pretty aggressive on him.
593
00:29:16.200 --> 00:29:17.960
So exactly the same same here.
594
00:29:18.319 --> 00:29:20.799
Yeah, the picture is going to sound a little weird.
595
00:29:20.880 --> 00:29:24.279
But I had my eye out, uh everywhere for Cody
596
00:29:24.319 --> 00:29:25.440
Ponce And.
597
00:29:25.960 --> 00:29:30.880
That's a little weird. I like, I like points.
598
00:29:30.920 --> 00:29:34.160
I just think it's a it's an odd name for
599
00:29:34.200 --> 00:29:35.240
this sort of exercise.
600
00:29:35.359 --> 00:29:37.799
Yeah, yeah, where do you have where do you have
601
00:29:37.799 --> 00:29:39.960
a brant? Because he his a d P rat.
602
00:29:40.240 --> 00:29:42.720
His ADP at the Ammas was two fifty one, which
603
00:29:43.599 --> 00:29:45.799
I think is okay, and I might have pushed him
604
00:29:45.799 --> 00:29:47.440
a little higher than that, but it seemed like an
605
00:29:47.480 --> 00:29:48.599
appropriate price.
606
00:29:49.200 --> 00:29:51.680
Yeah, no, that's a that's a good question. I only
607
00:29:51.720 --> 00:29:54.960
have like ordinal ranks for my start, Okay, so.
608
00:29:54.920 --> 00:29:57.480
I could I could tell you, you know, I mean
609
00:29:57.519 --> 00:29:59.039
you don't have to. You know, it's going to take
610
00:29:59.039 --> 00:30:00.599
a long long time. It's nothing.
611
00:30:02.240 --> 00:30:03.839
It's pretty close here, you know.
612
00:30:04.000 --> 00:30:07.720
I had him as my SPE sixty one, so okay,
613
00:30:08.000 --> 00:30:09.839
you know it's probably not too far off of a VP.
614
00:30:10.119 --> 00:30:16.880
But yeah, So anyway, I just it just seemed like, uh,
615
00:30:17.599 --> 00:30:19.519
there was there was some decent upside there because we
616
00:30:19.599 --> 00:30:21.000
just didn't know. It was kind of a black box.
617
00:30:21.000 --> 00:30:24.240
Didn't really know what we were getting. But he it
618
00:30:24.359 --> 00:30:26.839
seemed like he was going to be they imagine him
619
00:30:26.880 --> 00:30:30.359
to be a fixture in that rotation good team, So
620
00:30:30.599 --> 00:30:30.960
I don't know.
621
00:30:31.039 --> 00:30:31.279
I was.
622
00:30:31.319 --> 00:30:33.720
I had my a off for Cody Ponts in every
623
00:30:33.799 --> 00:30:37.240
draft and and never walked away with with mister Ponce.
624
00:30:38.839 --> 00:30:43.279
What do you think the biggest fantasy non story of
625
00:30:43.319 --> 00:30:45.480
spring is that is a thing that people were talking
626
00:30:45.480 --> 00:30:47.279
about all spring that's going to turn out to be
627
00:30:47.559 --> 00:30:48.240
no big deal.
628
00:30:49.039 --> 00:30:50.480
I know that you're talking about all Spring, but I
629
00:30:50.519 --> 00:30:52.039
heard a few times and I think I may have
630
00:30:52.119 --> 00:30:56.839
mentioned it before, but I'll mention again. So abs I
631
00:30:57.480 --> 00:31:00.839
there's some misunderstandings. There were some misunderstan standings about it,
632
00:31:01.039 --> 00:31:03.039
or people doing what they often try to do, which
633
00:31:03.079 --> 00:31:07.119
is in a well meaning way provide good advice but
634
00:31:07.160 --> 00:31:10.680
then over analyze something. So you know, a BS. We
635
00:31:10.759 --> 00:31:14.720
know it's not instant replay for every bon ball and strike.
636
00:31:15.240 --> 00:31:18.440
It's a challenge system. There's a couple of challenges a game,
637
00:31:18.480 --> 00:31:21.640
like I don't know if you watched the games today
638
00:31:21.720 --> 00:31:24.079
or I had time to watch it when I when
639
00:31:24.119 --> 00:31:27.799
I write, some of you saw any challenges? But really, yeah,
640
00:31:28.640 --> 00:31:31.720
it's I have to say like like it or dislike it.
641
00:31:31.519 --> 00:31:34.720
It's not obtrusive, like you kind of barely notice this.
642
00:31:34.839 --> 00:31:35.160
It's there.
643
00:31:35.200 --> 00:31:37.319
I think parties were just used to replay at this point,
644
00:31:37.480 --> 00:31:40.039
and it looks almost a lot like tennis. Like when
645
00:31:40.079 --> 00:31:42.000
you watch a tennis match, and if you watch tennis,
646
00:31:42.039 --> 00:31:44.799
but you know you see the replay, that's what looks like.
647
00:31:45.880 --> 00:31:49.400
So it'll make some changes. But like I hear people,
648
00:31:49.400 --> 00:31:52.160
even non fantasy analysts, oh, this this control picture, who
649
00:31:52.200 --> 00:31:55.039
throws this type of curveball will benefit. It's like, yeah,
650
00:31:55.119 --> 00:31:57.920
like maybe maybe on one or two pitches. Like it's
651
00:31:58.279 --> 00:32:00.279
it's just not going to be the big thing, least
652
00:32:00.319 --> 00:32:02.559
not out of the gate that people are saying it is.
653
00:32:02.640 --> 00:32:05.400
It's it's not going to do much to put like
654
00:32:05.759 --> 00:32:09.319
better offensive catchers behind the plate because framing isn't as important.
655
00:32:09.400 --> 00:32:12.400
I think that last stuff will still matter. Maybe in
656
00:32:12.440 --> 00:32:14.680
three or four years it will matter. It might be
657
00:32:14.880 --> 00:32:18.599
a gradual change, but yeah, I just don't see it
658
00:32:18.640 --> 00:32:21.400
as this thing that's worth getting all worked up about.
659
00:32:22.039 --> 00:32:27.640
So I agree completely, and I think it's it's even
660
00:32:27.759 --> 00:32:30.400
less of a less of a thing than the pitchclock.
661
00:32:30.440 --> 00:32:31.039
And the pitchclock.
662
00:32:31.079 --> 00:32:32.440
I think I was a little more.
663
00:32:34.640 --> 00:32:36.759
Hesitant about Well, me too, me too.
664
00:32:36.759 --> 00:32:38.240
I didn't like it, and I have to I have
665
00:32:38.240 --> 00:32:40.160
to have met it was wrong like I think it's
666
00:32:40.240 --> 00:32:43.960
mostly been especially for TV. It's it makes watching games
667
00:32:44.000 --> 00:32:46.400
on TV much better in my opinion.
668
00:32:46.640 --> 00:32:49.240
And I think that the A B S is even
669
00:32:49.400 --> 00:32:53.519
less obtrusive. I hate to I hate to hand it
670
00:32:53.599 --> 00:32:56.160
to a Major League Baseball but I think you know,
671
00:32:56.200 --> 00:32:59.640
they got it right both in having it in the
672
00:32:59.640 --> 00:33:00.799
implement mention of it.
673
00:33:01.880 --> 00:33:04.240
Yeah, so I will say, like I aesthetically and this
674
00:33:04.359 --> 00:33:08.000
is really an ABS. This is when baseball started calling
675
00:33:08.000 --> 00:33:11.000
that higher strike again, because you remember, like there was
676
00:33:11.039 --> 00:33:12.519
a time when that high strike.
677
00:33:12.359 --> 00:33:14.319
Just wasn't caught yep.
678
00:33:14.720 --> 00:33:17.920
And you know, I esthetically hate whether it's ABS or not,
679
00:33:17.960 --> 00:33:20.279
where there is one of those high pitches that just
680
00:33:20.519 --> 00:33:22.240
raises the top of the zone. I saw one of
681
00:33:22.240 --> 00:33:24.160
those day at a replay where I was laughing. I
682
00:33:24.200 --> 00:33:27.039
was like, you know, in the PREABS stays, people would
683
00:33:27.039 --> 00:33:29.680
have been angrily posting online that this.
684
00:33:29.839 --> 00:33:31.799
Was a you know, this was a not a strike.
685
00:33:31.839 --> 00:33:32.680
That's ridiculous.
686
00:33:32.720 --> 00:33:35.279
But since ABS has to strike it and seating complaints
687
00:33:35.279 --> 00:33:37.440
because people like, oh ABS has strike, And I was
688
00:33:37.519 --> 00:33:39.400
laughing because I'm like, this is the thing you were
689
00:33:39.440 --> 00:33:42.279
mad about at umpires about for years when they started
690
00:33:42.279 --> 00:33:43.720
doing these high strikes and now you're not.
691
00:33:44.920 --> 00:33:48.039
Yeah, but I also think to that point that it's
692
00:33:48.079 --> 00:33:51.920
going to make and how do you feel about this
693
00:33:52.599 --> 00:33:55.759
could range from you know, something you hate or something
694
00:33:55.759 --> 00:34:00.640
that you appreciate. But I think it's going to make
695
00:34:00.759 --> 00:34:04.519
umpires call a more standardized zone, right because they don't
696
00:34:04.559 --> 00:34:06.279
want to get they don't want to get overturned.
697
00:34:06.359 --> 00:34:07.480
So, you know.
698
00:34:07.519 --> 00:34:11.639
Umpires that maybe were known for sort of you know,
699
00:34:11.719 --> 00:34:14.079
having a wider zone, they're going to bring it in.
700
00:34:14.280 --> 00:34:16.880
Umpires who called a higher strike or I mean high
701
00:34:16.920 --> 00:34:18.440
strike's not as much of an issue, but maybe a
702
00:34:18.440 --> 00:34:22.360
low strike because so we're gonna have so it's almost
703
00:34:22.440 --> 00:34:23.159
like the machine.
704
00:34:23.280 --> 00:34:24.039
It's kind of.
705
00:34:24.559 --> 00:34:28.199
Training, Uh, the umpires themselves, Like I really have a
706
00:34:28.199 --> 00:34:32.039
problem with that. I know, you know, we all at
707
00:34:32.119 --> 00:34:34.440
least you know you and I remember Empire umpires like
708
00:34:34.559 --> 00:34:37.719
Eric Gray who would call pitches, you know, a foot
709
00:34:37.800 --> 00:34:38.679
outside of the zone.
710
00:34:39.159 --> 00:34:39.239
Uh.
711
00:34:39.360 --> 00:34:43.960
Pictures like Tom Glavin whose careers were basically built off of,
712
00:34:44.119 --> 00:34:47.119
you know, umpires giving him a large strike zone.
713
00:34:47.679 --> 00:34:49.599
I think it's fine game change.
714
00:34:50.440 --> 00:34:51.039
Yeah, I do too.
715
00:34:51.079 --> 00:34:54.280
And umpires have already had already pre abs been moving
716
00:34:54.320 --> 00:34:57.760
toward that, Like the better umpires were using technology and
717
00:34:58.159 --> 00:35:00.480
watching film after the game and going oh, I got
718
00:35:00.480 --> 00:35:03.000
this call wrong, or this is my weakness or the
719
00:35:03.000 --> 00:35:05.000
thing I need to do better. And you know, it
720
00:35:05.119 --> 00:35:08.079
was the poorer umpires, and you know there's always a
721
00:35:08.079 --> 00:35:10.000
few of them who didn't care about that. And it
722
00:35:10.039 --> 00:35:12.480
was typically the older ones too, who just were not
723
00:35:13.239 --> 00:35:15.519
as interested in getting things right. So so yeah, I
724
00:35:15.960 --> 00:35:21.400
overall it's a it's a better change. And I think
725
00:35:21.599 --> 00:35:23.840
there's too much emphasis put on the strike zone as
726
00:35:23.840 --> 00:35:26.159
far as what the zone is like that there really
727
00:35:26.239 --> 00:35:30.400
isn't a rulebook strike zone. But yeah, I'm not an
728
00:35:30.800 --> 00:35:34.800
ABS or anti ABS warrior. I don't really care that much.
729
00:35:34.920 --> 00:35:36.280
You're an ABS agnostic.
730
00:35:37.119 --> 00:35:40.079
Yeah, so I said, and I kind of stole this
731
00:35:40.119 --> 00:35:41.880
from you because we were talking about it the other day.
732
00:35:41.880 --> 00:35:46.280
But I think the non story of the Fantasy non
733
00:35:46.320 --> 00:35:49.639
story of Spring is that this is an exceptional rookie class.
734
00:35:51.480 --> 00:35:55.079
I think we will you can say, wow, you know,
735
00:35:55.119 --> 00:35:58.639
look at all of these these players debuting at the
736
00:35:58.679 --> 00:36:02.840
same time. You know, McGonagall and weather Hold already up,
737
00:36:03.079 --> 00:36:06.960
benj already up. Griffin probably hereby Memorial Day at the latest.
738
00:36:07.360 --> 00:36:09.480
I don't know, Like we get this hype every year
739
00:36:09.519 --> 00:36:12.639
about there's almost like they're half There has to be
740
00:36:13.719 --> 00:36:18.599
a half dozen players that are hyped, and it's really
741
00:36:18.679 --> 00:36:21.079
hard to tell. I'm not saying that these players are
742
00:36:21.880 --> 00:36:25.000
average or mediocre. They might all be like all star
743
00:36:25.079 --> 00:36:29.159
level or you know, above average players, but we just
744
00:36:29.239 --> 00:36:32.440
don't know that yet. And the likelihood is that, you know,
745
00:36:33.239 --> 00:36:35.679
some of them will have solid years and some of
746
00:36:35.679 --> 00:36:38.320
them will struggle, and that's just kind of the way
747
00:36:38.360 --> 00:36:38.880
things go.
748
00:36:40.320 --> 00:36:43.559
Yeah, my my hot take is I still believe that
749
00:36:43.880 --> 00:36:46.159
Connor Griffin is going to be up like in May
750
00:36:46.280 --> 00:36:49.760
and still very well could be the highest cerner of
751
00:36:49.800 --> 00:36:50.639
all these rookies.
752
00:36:51.199 --> 00:36:52.280
Yeah, I could see it.
753
00:36:52.440 --> 00:36:56.880
We'll see about the strikeouts, I think he will.
754
00:36:56.880 --> 00:37:00.400
Well, the the ETA is really what matters, because you know, obviously,
755
00:37:00.719 --> 00:37:03.480
if he's up on June first or July first especially,
756
00:37:03.519 --> 00:37:04.760
that's not going to happen.
757
00:37:06.679 --> 00:37:10.920
So the converse of this is, what do you think
758
00:37:11.440 --> 00:37:15.320
the biggest underdiscussed fantasy story will be throughout the year.
759
00:37:15.440 --> 00:37:17.719
What are we not talking about that is actually going
760
00:37:17.760 --> 00:37:18.400
to matter?
761
00:37:20.079 --> 00:37:22.719
Well, it's still it's to kind of reiterate what I
762
00:37:22.760 --> 00:37:26.960
was talking about before. It's still the diminished role the
763
00:37:27.039 --> 00:37:30.360
starting pitcher and how many people talk about starting pitchers,
764
00:37:30.519 --> 00:37:34.440
Like it's twenty fifteen, and what's going to happen is
765
00:37:34.440 --> 00:37:36.360
the same thing that happens. It's going to be podcasts
766
00:37:36.400 --> 00:37:40.039
about to start your pitching weeks and streaming starting pitchers
767
00:37:40.079 --> 00:37:40.760
and all these other things.
768
00:37:40.800 --> 00:37:42.079
And I'm not saying it's not important.
769
00:37:42.199 --> 00:37:46.400
It is, But what matters more is how you manage
770
00:37:46.719 --> 00:37:50.519
your roster, you know, in terms of actually even example,
771
00:37:50.639 --> 00:37:55.480
so I was listening to a podcast and someone was
772
00:37:55.480 --> 00:37:59.440
talking about Louis Heel and was saying that it's a
773
00:37:59.440 --> 00:38:03.480
mistake to drop him, it's an over correction. He's important,
774
00:38:03.480 --> 00:38:08.199
And I'm like, well, how important is Louis Heel really?
775
00:38:08.360 --> 00:38:10.239
And the fact that he was demoed to the minors,
776
00:38:11.119 --> 00:38:13.960
the Yankees don't need to start him until I believe
777
00:38:14.000 --> 00:38:17.000
it's April twelfth. Because they have all these off days
778
00:38:17.039 --> 00:38:18.920
built in their schedule. They can go with a format
779
00:38:19.039 --> 00:38:20.639
rotation for a while. I don't even know if they will,
780
00:38:20.679 --> 00:38:24.360
but they could. Is he a picture even in a
781
00:38:24.400 --> 00:38:27.480
fifteen teen mixed league like like TGFBI or an FBC
782
00:38:27.599 --> 00:38:31.199
league with no IL that is worth hanging on too,
783
00:38:31.639 --> 00:38:34.679
like waiting for him, particularly because these other Yankee pitchers
784
00:38:34.679 --> 00:38:36.559
are on a schedule right now where it looks like
785
00:38:36.559 --> 00:38:38.400
they might be back at the end of April beginning
786
00:38:38.400 --> 00:38:41.440
in May. So okay, you're hanging on to Louis Heel
787
00:38:41.559 --> 00:38:44.360
for what like three or four starts that might not
788
00:38:44.519 --> 00:38:49.679
even be that great. So yeah, I feel that there's
789
00:38:49.760 --> 00:38:53.320
this focus on who the right picture is to use
790
00:38:53.400 --> 00:38:56.800
and all this, and it really still is more about
791
00:38:56.840 --> 00:38:58.840
how you manage your roster on the whole.
792
00:38:59.400 --> 00:39:02.280
Yeah, yeah, mine, mine is shock It will shock you
793
00:39:02.360 --> 00:39:06.840
that mine is is very similar, almost like we do
794
00:39:06.880 --> 00:39:09.079
a podcast together.
795
00:39:09.320 --> 00:39:11.480
And talking about this stuff like off the podcast like
796
00:39:11.519 --> 00:39:12.719
all the time. Yeah, exactly.
797
00:39:13.239 --> 00:39:15.400
But I think, just you know, from a from a
798
00:39:15.440 --> 00:39:19.719
gameplay perspective, like this might be the year where players
799
00:39:19.760 --> 00:39:23.400
begin to realize that it's actually I think for a while,
800
00:39:23.679 --> 00:39:26.280
and I don't have any empirical evidence to back this up,
801
00:39:26.320 --> 00:39:30.800
but I it feels like more players were in say
802
00:39:30.880 --> 00:39:33.679
like weekly lineups where you had nine pitching spots, We're
803
00:39:33.679 --> 00:39:36.440
going like seven and two starters to relievers and you
804
00:39:36.480 --> 00:39:36.960
just have your.
805
00:39:36.840 --> 00:39:39.800
Two closers in. There's gonna be a lot more.
806
00:39:40.000 --> 00:39:43.519
Of going six and three, maybe even five and four
807
00:39:43.639 --> 00:39:47.719
some weeks because I think not only is the you know,
808
00:39:47.800 --> 00:39:51.039
are the Louise Heels of the world pretty fungible in
809
00:39:51.159 --> 00:39:54.880
terms of just a massive pool of basically replacement level pitchers.
810
00:39:54.920 --> 00:39:57.960
But these back end it's not teams don't have five
811
00:39:58.480 --> 00:40:01.960
pitcher rotations anymore, you know, they have like picture rotations,
812
00:40:02.199 --> 00:40:05.480
you know, functionally, I mean every more, teams are kind
813
00:40:05.480 --> 00:40:09.280
of you know, following the Dodger model of just having
814
00:40:09.320 --> 00:40:14.760
that depth and psychology. Yeah, of course, so those pictures
815
00:40:14.840 --> 00:40:18.679
are not they weren't that valuable before and now they're
816
00:40:18.719 --> 00:40:22.920
pitching furretings you know, probably per start, definitely over the
817
00:40:22.920 --> 00:40:25.840
course of the year. And so the advantage of like
818
00:40:25.960 --> 00:40:30.079
streaming a picture just because he gets to starts or
819
00:40:30.119 --> 00:40:33.440
because you know, maybe he has a weaker opponent or
820
00:40:33.440 --> 00:40:36.519
a favorable matchup. I just feel like the upside of
821
00:40:36.519 --> 00:40:38.679
that is is kind of disappearing.
822
00:40:39.840 --> 00:40:44.360
Yeah, I I agree, and that that's that's why, like
823
00:40:44.440 --> 00:40:47.760
I had started out with my my three aces strategy,
824
00:40:47.880 --> 00:40:52.599
because having those pictures that are reliable enough, you know,
825
00:40:52.840 --> 00:40:54.599
and this is this is another thing to get to
826
00:40:54.679 --> 00:40:57.599
go back to the zero starting picture strategy that people
827
00:40:57.599 --> 00:41:01.360
are espousing. They point out the aces at the top
828
00:41:01.440 --> 00:41:03.760
are throwing fewer innings than they used to We're like, oh,
829
00:41:03.800 --> 00:41:05.920
the two hundred and twenty inning picture is gone.
830
00:41:05.920 --> 00:41:08.159
It's like, well, that's true.
831
00:41:08.159 --> 00:41:10.400
But what really matters that it is the pitching at
832
00:41:10.440 --> 00:41:13.719
the middle of the bottom. It's all relative, Like you're
833
00:41:13.719 --> 00:41:18.280
getting so so fewer innings from those pictures, those SP
834
00:41:18.360 --> 00:41:21.599
fours at SP fives, that the picture at the top
835
00:41:21.719 --> 00:41:24.320
is throwing one hundred and eighty innings is still giving
836
00:41:24.320 --> 00:41:26.440
you a lot of value relative to the bottom of
837
00:41:26.480 --> 00:41:30.199
the pool, and perhaps more so than in the days
838
00:41:30.199 --> 00:41:32.920
when an ace went like to ten to twenty and
839
00:41:33.000 --> 00:41:35.519
the SP four was still giving you like one hundred
840
00:41:35.559 --> 00:41:37.480
and fifty one hundred and sixty innings.
841
00:41:37.800 --> 00:41:43.280
Yeah, they the innings eater like SP four types. Yeah,
842
00:41:44.480 --> 00:41:50.639
the new two hundred basically yeah, okay, So getting heading
843
00:41:50.679 --> 00:41:53.719
into the home stretch, I know this is this is
844
00:41:53.840 --> 00:41:58.039
kind of this kind of a cliche or boilerplate as
845
00:41:58.079 --> 00:42:00.280
as you put it. But the fun people like to
846
00:42:00.320 --> 00:42:03.159
hear this stuff, so who to hear? So yeah, yeah,
847
00:42:03.719 --> 00:42:04.440
you know, we're here.
848
00:42:04.320 --> 00:42:05.960
To give the people. Give the people what they want,
849
00:42:06.039 --> 00:42:06.599
the people.
850
00:42:06.400 --> 00:42:06.880
What they want.
851
00:42:07.559 --> 00:42:11.880
Player drafting the top one hundred who will be widely
852
00:42:11.960 --> 00:42:16.320
dropped and not because of an injury, So basically a player,
853
00:42:16.480 --> 00:42:19.800
a player in the top one hundred who who flopped?
854
00:42:20.159 --> 00:42:21.679
Well, why does they dropped? See?
855
00:42:21.800 --> 00:42:24.719
This is this is tougher than I I thought, because
856
00:42:25.519 --> 00:42:27.000
I feel like in a way you're asking it.
857
00:42:27.199 --> 00:42:30.880
You know, who is this Mark Mark? Okay, we can.
858
00:42:30.800 --> 00:42:35.320
Back let's say not you know, is is a huge
859
00:42:35.360 --> 00:42:37.119
dispoint because the player I have in mind is probably
860
00:42:37.159 --> 00:42:39.519
not going to be dropped. So okay, so we can
861
00:42:39.559 --> 00:42:40.519
back off that slightly.
862
00:42:40.559 --> 00:42:41.440
Well, I I didn't.
863
00:42:41.480 --> 00:42:43.960
I don't think I saw your injury caveat and the
864
00:42:44.039 --> 00:42:46.440
show run down. So I apologize because the first guy
865
00:42:46.559 --> 00:42:48.639
came to mind was so well, the first game came
866
00:42:48.679 --> 00:42:51.840
mine was Byron Buxton, which is if he stays healthy
867
00:42:51.880 --> 00:42:54.280
for the second year in a row. You know, he
868
00:42:54.679 --> 00:42:57.239
cleared four hundred play appearances lest shure like that, not
869
00:42:57.480 --> 00:42:59.840
five hundred four hundred. He cleared forward to play appearances
870
00:42:59.840 --> 00:43:03.280
with the first time since twenty eighteen. So I mean,
871
00:43:03.320 --> 00:43:06.199
I hope he stays healthy. He's an amazing player, he's
872
00:43:06.199 --> 00:43:08.400
great to watch him. But it's not a bad banks.
873
00:43:08.440 --> 00:43:11.760
So there's an obvious and a non obvious answer here.
874
00:43:11.840 --> 00:43:14.639
So the obvious answer is one of the closers, right,
875
00:43:14.719 --> 00:43:18.199
because this is almost always what happens. I'm sure you're
876
00:43:18.280 --> 00:43:21.519
going off of at an FBCADP and the names here,
877
00:43:21.880 --> 00:43:25.920
I think, from most obvious the least obvious, Rice saw Iglesias.
878
00:43:25.960 --> 00:43:28.599
If he struggles, there's an obvious replacement right behind him
879
00:43:28.599 --> 00:43:30.519
that they brought in for a lot of money. They
880
00:43:30.519 --> 00:43:32.559
could also trade a glace if they're out of contention,
881
00:43:33.039 --> 00:43:34.960
I could see. I know he's our closer in DC
882
00:43:35.159 --> 00:43:37.159
or a main closer, but a lot.
883
00:43:37.000 --> 00:43:37.639
Could go wrong.
884
00:43:39.280 --> 00:43:42.440
The next least obvious answer Ryan Helsley. Yes, he looked
885
00:43:42.440 --> 00:43:44.360
great today, he did not look great in the second
886
00:43:44.360 --> 00:43:45.119
half of the Mets.
887
00:43:46.239 --> 00:43:48.559
He could struggle. It's happened before.
888
00:43:49.119 --> 00:43:51.159
And then the least obvious answer everbody loves right now
889
00:43:51.280 --> 00:43:54.639
is is Danny Palencia, which, yes, he was great in WBC.
890
00:43:55.440 --> 00:43:58.639
He was his shoulder was barking up like like six
891
00:43:59.239 --> 00:44:02.599
months ago, and nobody talks about that. Yeah and yeah,
892
00:44:02.599 --> 00:44:05.519
I say it's an injury thing. But he could lose
893
00:44:05.559 --> 00:44:08.880
a job. So here's the here's the less savvious answers.
894
00:44:08.880 --> 00:44:11.400
Since anybody can just rattle off a name, a closer,
895
00:44:11.440 --> 00:44:13.280
you know, a bunch of closers and say wooh, like
896
00:44:13.400 --> 00:44:19.480
I'm you know, Edgy. Yeah, Salvador Press so, Salvador Perez. Yep,
897
00:44:19.679 --> 00:44:22.719
he's He'll be thirty six next I was to say
898
00:44:22.760 --> 00:44:26.440
next month, but in May. Yeah, he's. He's a really
899
00:44:26.519 --> 00:44:30.800
good fantasy player. But a lot of that is accumulation.
900
00:44:31.000 --> 00:44:33.800
He's been a real life below average hitter, and not
901
00:44:33.880 --> 00:44:36.920
with the positional adjustment just period uh two of the
902
00:44:37.000 --> 00:44:39.480
last three years, he's logged a lot of time. He
903
00:44:39.559 --> 00:44:44.000
really needs that volume to be a good player. And now,
904
00:44:44.039 --> 00:44:46.400
like one of the challenges that the Royals have, they
905
00:44:46.480 --> 00:44:48.559
had first base for him.
906
00:44:48.599 --> 00:44:50.039
They don't have that anymore.
907
00:44:50.519 --> 00:44:54.280
I know they have DH, but I could see a
908
00:44:54.400 --> 00:44:57.199
scenario where he falls off a little bit more and
909
00:44:57.920 --> 00:45:00.800
the Royal load, you know, load mat him more and
910
00:45:00.880 --> 00:45:02.960
being like, okay, like we you know, we do not
911
00:45:03.119 --> 00:45:05.119
want to, like, you know, run him into the ground,
912
00:45:05.199 --> 00:45:08.039
or he's not being quite as valuable enough that we
913
00:45:08.440 --> 00:45:10.400
want to, you know, keep playing him and playing him
914
00:45:10.440 --> 00:45:10.960
and playing them.
915
00:45:11.000 --> 00:45:12.079
Maybe they won't, maybe the.
916
00:45:12.079 --> 00:45:15.679
Royals, but yeah, South Perez is the guy I could see.
917
00:45:16.199 --> 00:45:17.679
He's not going to fall off the map. I don't
918
00:45:17.679 --> 00:45:19.559
think you're gonna want to drop him, barring an injury.
919
00:45:19.639 --> 00:45:21.880
But he's the guy I could see people being kind
920
00:45:21.920 --> 00:45:24.119
of mad about where It's like, oh, why did I
921
00:45:24.159 --> 00:45:26.559
like pay you know, inside the top one hundred for
922
00:45:26.559 --> 00:45:28.760
Salvador Perez. I could have taken a bunch of the
923
00:45:28.880 --> 00:45:30.800
you know, one of the younger catchers like Alvarez, we
924
00:45:30.800 --> 00:45:33.360
imagine going later and gotten better.
925
00:45:33.960 --> 00:45:36.239
Yeah, no, that's that's a good one and one of
926
00:45:36.239 --> 00:45:38.920
the things and this was one thing I considered for
927
00:45:39.039 --> 00:45:42.559
sort of underdiscussed fancy story, was you know, we see
928
00:45:42.599 --> 00:45:44.000
players really fall off.
929
00:45:43.920 --> 00:45:45.719
A cliff suddenly these days.
930
00:45:45.800 --> 00:45:47.559
You know, it kind of happened with Goldschmid, it kind
931
00:45:47.599 --> 00:45:51.639
of happened with Milan Arnado. I see a lot of
932
00:45:51.639 --> 00:45:54.320
players in the top one hundred that you know, I
933
00:45:54.320 --> 00:45:55.800
don't want to say it about Freddy Freeman.
934
00:45:55.800 --> 00:45:57.280
I don't want to say it about Mookie Betts.
935
00:45:57.639 --> 00:46:00.880
I don't know. Makes me nervous too, is but like.
936
00:46:01.760 --> 00:46:05.800
Uh, you know, with with injury and just with the
937
00:46:06.199 --> 00:46:09.360
sort of the age cliff, there might be one of
938
00:46:09.360 --> 00:46:11.800
those years. I mean, hell, al tuv even there might
939
00:46:11.800 --> 00:46:14.280
be one of these years when it just sort of ends, you.
940
00:46:14.239 --> 00:46:17.760
Know, yeah, Well, to me, last year already sort of
941
00:46:17.880 --> 00:46:21.360
like still was a better hitter than the stackcast numbers.
942
00:46:21.360 --> 00:46:25.000
But also it was his worst season not as a
943
00:46:25.000 --> 00:46:28.239
fantasyator as a hitter since twenty thirteen. Like there were
944
00:46:28.239 --> 00:46:30.960
already signs at the end. Was kind of on the mark,
945
00:46:31.079 --> 00:46:32.880
like on the on the periphery with him, and you're
946
00:46:32.960 --> 00:46:36.280
right when it happens, that's what happened with Goldschmid and Arnatto.
947
00:46:36.480 --> 00:46:37.320
Like it.
948
00:46:37.320 --> 00:46:40.679
It happens fast like it doesn't like its like, oh,
949
00:46:40.840 --> 00:46:41.840
isn't gradual decline.
950
00:46:41.840 --> 00:46:43.440
I think that's a big difference. When we were younger,
951
00:46:43.480 --> 00:46:44.480
like hitters.
952
00:46:44.280 --> 00:46:46.559
The pitching wasn't as good, so the great or almost
953
00:46:46.559 --> 00:46:49.920
great hitters could kind of linger for a while. That's
954
00:46:50.000 --> 00:46:51.239
just much harder to do.
955
00:46:52.320 --> 00:46:59.000
So I also chose a catcher, but I I of
956
00:46:59.039 --> 00:47:02.039
course I wanted to say pekro Armstrong. But of course
957
00:47:02.039 --> 00:47:05.199
he's he's going to return some value just because he's
958
00:47:05.199 --> 00:47:07.679
gonna stay on the field because he's so great defensively
959
00:47:08.840 --> 00:47:12.239
and who knows, Like I am not obviously high on
960
00:47:12.320 --> 00:47:16.960
Pek Armstrong, but the chances that he is a complete
961
00:47:17.039 --> 00:47:20.760
washout are very slim. Actually, he chose one of those
962
00:47:20.800 --> 00:47:25.320
young catchers you mentioned with who is Augustine Ramirez as
963
00:47:25.320 --> 00:47:29.840
someone I think, Man, I don't know, Man, I just
964
00:47:29.880 --> 00:47:32.760
feel like the average could craters.
965
00:47:32.880 --> 00:47:35.679
He's got a poor on base. You know.
966
00:47:35.760 --> 00:47:38.639
Yes, it's kind of a cool thing that he runs,
967
00:47:39.039 --> 00:47:41.840
I know, you know, And again it's a catcher, is
968
00:47:41.880 --> 00:47:45.719
a young catcher. I don't I don't think his his
969
00:47:46.199 --> 00:47:47.000
defense is.
970
00:47:47.199 --> 00:47:48.760
I think he's he's more.
971
00:47:48.679 --> 00:47:52.280
It was alow average, he was. Well, it's so funny
972
00:47:52.320 --> 00:47:55.800
like with the defense he was. He was a replacement
973
00:47:55.880 --> 00:47:58.719
level player last year and I get it like he
974
00:47:58.800 --> 00:47:59.960
will be twenty four this year.
975
00:48:00.000 --> 00:48:01.119
There is a lot of upside.
976
00:48:01.119 --> 00:48:04.199
He's a boom or bust player, to be sure, and
977
00:48:04.320 --> 00:48:08.039
I do agree with you that there's some people are
978
00:48:08.119 --> 00:48:10.440
kind of acting like he can't fail, and it's like, well,
979
00:48:10.519 --> 00:48:13.320
I don't think he blessly will, but oh he very
980
00:48:13.920 --> 00:48:14.559
well could.
981
00:48:15.199 --> 00:48:19.519
I could see a you know, a stint, a bad start,
982
00:48:19.760 --> 00:48:22.840
and a time and in a to get right. But
983
00:48:23.639 --> 00:48:27.199
that's that's yeah, shot in the dark. I just it's
984
00:48:27.280 --> 00:48:30.039
just someone I see whose skills I just don't really
985
00:48:30.119 --> 00:48:30.559
believe in.
986
00:48:31.000 --> 00:48:33.159
The only two, the only two that people are pointing
987
00:48:33.159 --> 00:48:36.119
out is that with Kyle Stowers out now that that
988
00:48:36.199 --> 00:48:39.159
lineup looks bad, I am screwed, like a number of teams.
989
00:48:39.199 --> 00:48:42.079
But even if he starts out. Okay, it's going to
990
00:48:42.119 --> 00:48:44.719
depress the run in the RBI totals. So he just
991
00:48:44.800 --> 00:48:47.119
might not be as valuable as you were hoping he
992
00:48:47.159 --> 00:48:50.480
would before the season started. I do have I do
993
00:48:50.559 --> 00:48:52.079
have him in one league, by the way, so I
994
00:48:53.000 --> 00:48:55.000
have a little bit of exposure to him.
995
00:48:55.719 --> 00:48:58.639
Okay, So player draft outside the top two hundred, who
996
00:48:58.800 --> 00:49:01.679
I didn't say like a top fifty or at first round.
997
00:49:01.719 --> 00:49:05.880
I just said who will be a fantasy difference maker? Right,
998
00:49:07.519 --> 00:49:09.199
this is more optimistic, So.
999
00:49:09.519 --> 00:49:12.639
A few players here I'm trying to I'm just trying.
1000
00:49:12.360 --> 00:49:15.360
To think, well, I'll go Ket McGonagall because he's a
1001
00:49:15.400 --> 00:49:17.679
well done and I have a feeling that, you know,
1002
00:49:17.800 --> 00:49:20.239
if drafts were I was using a weak sample, that
1003
00:49:20.239 --> 00:49:22.920
wouldn't be the case. So I'm not gonna mention all
1004
00:49:22.960 --> 00:49:26.280
these names. I'm just gonna mention a couple, and I'm
1005
00:49:26.280 --> 00:49:29.000
going to go all hitters here just because pictures it's
1006
00:49:29.039 --> 00:49:32.440
easier to see that happening, right, Yeah, the one picture,
1007
00:49:32.519 --> 00:49:34.079
So the one picture I thought it was code. I
1008
00:49:34.119 --> 00:49:36.760
Sanga because he looked good at the end of spring.
1009
00:49:36.840 --> 00:49:40.239
He's been good in fantasy before, and if he's healthy,
1010
00:49:41.000 --> 00:49:44.320
it wouldn't surprise me if he re emerges as a picture.
1011
00:49:44.440 --> 00:49:48.320
But here are the hitters, So we're comy on the
1012
00:49:48.320 --> 00:49:51.760
White Sox. Yes, I see the downside, but he could
1013
00:49:51.800 --> 00:49:54.679
easily be a Henny as far as light and really
1014
00:49:54.920 --> 00:49:57.360
pop a bunch of home runs with an average that's bad,
1015
00:49:57.440 --> 00:49:59.239
but not so bad that you're like, oh, like I
1016
00:49:59.239 --> 00:50:02.239
can't believe I have him? Are we sleeping out of
1017
00:50:02.239 --> 00:50:05.519
our planco I feel like he was solid last year
1018
00:50:05.559 --> 00:50:07.679
and a lot of the lot of the oh, he's
1019
00:50:07.679 --> 00:50:10.960
to get hurt again, like well maybe, like I don't know,
1020
00:50:11.039 --> 00:50:14.119
it doesn't seem like the injuries he had were chronic.
1021
00:50:14.719 --> 00:50:16.679
He's in a good lineup, He's in a nice situation.
1022
00:50:16.840 --> 00:50:19.960
He looked fine at first base today. I will oversaw that.
1023
00:50:20.079 --> 00:50:24.880
But he could be okay. Colson Montgomery, I really don't
1024
00:50:24.920 --> 00:50:27.280
care about the bad spring, at least not yet.
1025
00:50:27.320 --> 00:50:28.639
I know he'd have a good day today.
1026
00:50:28.679 --> 00:50:31.320
But I think I heard like in the main event
1027
00:50:31.360 --> 00:50:34.440
he was down to around like three hundred. Overall, it
1028
00:50:34.519 --> 00:50:37.920
just feels like a over correction in the other direction
1029
00:50:38.000 --> 00:50:41.400
for a guy who was really impactful powerheader last year.
1030
00:50:41.400 --> 00:50:44.119
And then finally but I did a second picture, I'll
1031
00:50:44.119 --> 00:50:48.679
skip him Finally, Jordan Beck kind of like the course
1032
00:50:48.719 --> 00:50:52.159
effect there. Feel interestingly, it's it's so funny that the
1033
00:50:52.239 --> 00:50:55.800
Jordan Beck Matt McLain projections were your really similar. I
1034
00:50:55.880 --> 00:50:59.000
noticed this in my taut right up because Matt McLain
1035
00:50:59.119 --> 00:51:00.920
was my target and I settle for Jordan.
1036
00:51:01.079 --> 00:51:01.679
Jordan's back.
1037
00:51:01.760 --> 00:51:06.119
But they're both two young hitters with with some talent
1038
00:51:06.199 --> 00:51:08.679
and also some flaws, and I could see either one
1039
00:51:08.719 --> 00:51:11.360
of them emerging this year, and why not Back?
1040
00:51:11.840 --> 00:51:14.519
Sure? Yeah, I think Back is one of those players
1041
00:51:14.519 --> 00:51:16.239
who I ended up with a couple of shares of
1042
00:51:17.400 --> 00:51:23.960
I did go go pitcher, uh, and it's I I
1043
00:51:24.039 --> 00:51:28.480
chose Mike Burrows for for Houston. It's kind of a
1044
00:51:28.519 --> 00:51:34.400
gut feeling like I think he is, he's pretty polished,
1045
00:51:35.239 --> 00:51:38.280
he's gonna be I mean right now, I think he's
1046
00:51:38.440 --> 00:51:42.039
really starting the second game, so he's effectively the number
1047
00:51:42.039 --> 00:51:45.320
two in that rotation, which is you know, pretty sketchy,
1048
00:51:47.119 --> 00:51:51.079
you know. I I think he's he's not going to
1049
00:51:51.280 --> 00:51:54.480
wow in sort of terms of strikeouts or have super
1050
00:51:54.559 --> 00:51:58.039
elite ratios, but I feel like getting like a three
1051
00:51:58.159 --> 00:52:01.800
three e r A. It's you know, about to strike
1052
00:52:01.800 --> 00:52:05.760
out an inning and a decent number of wins, kind
1053
00:52:05.760 --> 00:52:11.800
of a quiet contributor who just sort of sticks around
1054
00:52:11.880 --> 00:52:15.239
and does good things. I could easily see him, you know,
1055
00:52:15.320 --> 00:52:18.800
becoming like a top I don't know, thirty starter. I
1056
00:52:18.840 --> 00:52:20.800
don't know if you call that a fantasy difference maker, but.
1057
00:52:21.719 --> 00:52:24.199
Yeah, I think it is. You're you're in a fifteen
1058
00:52:24.199 --> 00:52:26.039
teen league, you know, top thirty. You're talking about like
1059
00:52:26.039 --> 00:52:28.440
a back end spe too. That that's that's huge if
1060
00:52:28.480 --> 00:52:30.840
you can get that from that late.
1061
00:52:32.159 --> 00:52:33.159
Yeah, okay, So.
1062
00:52:35.000 --> 00:52:37.079
And then just kind of as a as a sign off,
1063
00:52:37.119 --> 00:52:39.320
we we've done this in the past, in the old
1064
00:52:39.599 --> 00:52:40.320
the old days.
1065
00:52:40.360 --> 00:52:42.599
But I know you did this.
1066
00:52:42.519 --> 00:52:45.800
For VP, and you don't have to replicate those those picks.
1067
00:52:46.320 --> 00:52:48.159
But we were just going to go through m VP
1068
00:52:48.360 --> 00:52:50.840
for each league, side for each league, Rookie of the
1069
00:52:50.920 --> 00:52:53.440
Year for each league, and then we don't need to
1070
00:52:53.480 --> 00:52:57.320
do standings. We'll just do the two pennant winners and
1071
00:52:57.440 --> 00:52:59.079
the World Series winner.
1072
00:52:59.239 --> 00:53:02.320
So who you got for al MVP.
1073
00:53:02.800 --> 00:53:04.679
We don't have to talk a lot about these guys either.
1074
00:53:05.159 --> 00:53:07.159
I'm actually trying to remember who I picked because I
1075
00:53:07.159 --> 00:53:08.960
remember a much more comic.
1076
00:53:09.480 --> 00:53:11.920
To the website.
1077
00:53:11.039 --> 00:53:13.599
I'm doing that myself right now.
1078
00:53:13.679 --> 00:53:16.760
To Okay, I'll tell you my pick. How's that?
1079
00:53:16.840 --> 00:53:19.519
Okay, go ahead, Bobby.
1080
00:53:20.559 --> 00:53:24.239
Bobby very pretty chalky. You know, I think a lot
1081
00:53:24.239 --> 00:53:25.920
of people probably are picking Yeah.
1082
00:53:25.960 --> 00:53:28.639
My my fun pick here was Nick Kurtz just just
1083
00:53:28.679 --> 00:53:31.239
going against the grain and being like everybody's saying he's
1084
00:53:31.320 --> 00:53:34.280
going to fall off, but what if he doesn't.
1085
00:53:35.000 --> 00:53:37.480
I know you're a a m VP, so go ahead.
1086
00:53:38.000 --> 00:53:39.679
Well that was that was a bit of a lark.
1087
00:53:39.760 --> 00:53:41.599
It was somebody that you don't like it. I don't
1088
00:53:41.639 --> 00:53:44.119
like for Fantasy either, but it was Pete crow Armstrong,
1089
00:53:44.159 --> 00:53:46.480
which was sort of a similar Well, first of all,
1090
00:53:46.480 --> 00:53:48.320
it's a bit of trolling here because I picked the
1091
00:53:48.360 --> 00:53:50.519
Cubs to win the World Series, and I feel like
1092
00:53:50.519 --> 00:53:52.320
if the Cubs are going to win the World Series,
1093
00:53:52.320 --> 00:53:53.679
there's some things that are going to have to go
1094
00:53:53.800 --> 00:53:57.280
right for them, like in a big way. So PCA
1095
00:53:57.440 --> 00:53:59.679
would be one of those players who he would really
1096
00:53:59.719 --> 00:54:00.679
have to go off.
1097
00:54:00.519 --> 00:54:01.440
For that to happen.
1098
00:54:02.119 --> 00:54:04.320
Is there a cup like in that scenario where that
1099
00:54:04.360 --> 00:54:06.679
comes like when the division, is there another player on
1100
00:54:06.679 --> 00:54:08.400
the team that you look at it and go, yeah,
1101
00:54:08.480 --> 00:54:13.400
he's the guy who did it, like really a solid player.
1102
00:54:13.519 --> 00:54:17.920
Yeah, I can't see him winning maybe, Yeah, I cannot
1103
00:54:17.920 --> 00:54:20.280
horner winning an m v P with like twelve runs
1104
00:54:20.280 --> 00:54:22.239
even he hits, I mean unless he has three sixty
1105
00:54:22.320 --> 00:54:23.880
or something like that, which he pe won't.
1106
00:54:24.559 --> 00:54:27.159
There's a lot of like role players, you know you're
1107
00:54:27.159 --> 00:54:32.199
inhaps your Michael Bush's those those types, Okay for myn
1108
00:54:32.360 --> 00:54:36.760
m VP, I said, uh, I am not so. Actually,
1109
00:54:37.320 --> 00:54:41.960
obviously the the the chalk choice would be Sho Tani.
1110
00:54:42.159 --> 00:54:43.480
I did not pick Shoo Tani.
1111
00:54:44.440 --> 00:54:46.039
You know, he's he's going to be.
1112
00:54:45.960 --> 00:54:50.079
Pitching again full time, and who knows what kind of
1113
00:54:51.320 --> 00:54:54.800
disturbance that will bring into the force. He very well
1114
00:54:54.840 --> 00:54:57.519
could you know, put up a historic war season. I
1115
00:54:57.559 --> 00:54:59.840
wouldn't put that past him. But I went with l
1116
00:54:59.840 --> 00:55:05.000
E Da La Cruz. I'm pretty excited about just because,
1117
00:55:05.039 --> 00:55:07.760
I mean, as you put it in our Shortstop podcast,
1118
00:55:07.800 --> 00:55:10.079
you know, he is one of those players outside the
1119
00:55:10.079 --> 00:55:13.039
top three that you can imagine finishing or being a
1120
00:55:13.119 --> 00:55:15.440
number one or number two pick next year.
1121
00:55:15.519 --> 00:55:15.760
Yeah.
1122
00:55:16.079 --> 00:55:18.119
Power, he's you know, still growing into his power.
1123
00:55:18.119 --> 00:55:23.119
We know about the speed. He's fun, he's human highlight reel.
1124
00:55:23.280 --> 00:55:26.800
So let's go with Ellie. Who do you have for AlSi?
1125
00:55:28.239 --> 00:55:33.280
I took Max Freed just again to go to someone choice,
1126
00:55:33.920 --> 00:55:37.079
but also somebody who's been very good, so it's not
1127
00:55:37.159 --> 00:55:39.679
as out there as as PCA. It just seems to
1128
00:55:39.719 --> 00:55:43.039
me that he could be good enough. And if he
1129
00:55:43.159 --> 00:55:45.280
has the season with say a three e er a
1130
00:55:45.480 --> 00:55:49.400
little bit higher, and voters adjusts for like the toughness
1131
00:55:49.400 --> 00:55:51.480
of Yank, you see him the division and he gets
1132
00:55:51.519 --> 00:55:52.760
the wins, he could do it.
1133
00:55:53.639 --> 00:55:53.880
Yeah.
1134
00:55:53.880 --> 00:55:56.280
I freed someone I could actually see getting to like
1135
00:55:56.360 --> 00:55:59.960
twenty wins, and even though voters don't really pay ten
1136
00:56:00.199 --> 00:56:03.280
wins anymore, I think, you know, getting close to that
1137
00:56:03.400 --> 00:56:06.679
would be would would make for a nice profile.
1138
00:56:06.719 --> 00:56:09.599
I said, your crochet, it's boring. Let's move on, NL
1139
00:56:10.360 --> 00:56:10.639
you got.
1140
00:56:11.519 --> 00:56:14.280
I took Christopher Sanchez, which I feel, you know, if
1141
00:56:14.280 --> 00:56:16.519
you watched him today, like he just seems to get
1142
00:56:16.599 --> 00:56:19.360
better and better, and he makes it look so easy.
1143
00:56:19.599 --> 00:56:23.199
So yeah, that it's not as jockey as say Paul Skeens,
1144
00:56:23.239 --> 00:56:26.719
But yeah, I could see Sanchez easily doing it.
1145
00:56:28.320 --> 00:56:30.719
I said, Mason Miller, Oh.
1146
00:56:30.599 --> 00:56:33.239
Wow, so you went with a reliever. I think he's
1147
00:56:33.320 --> 00:56:34.960
a reliever won this side.
1148
00:56:34.840 --> 00:56:36.920
But god, that's a good question.
1149
00:56:37.480 --> 00:56:40.760
It was that the eighties, or most probably was probably Acurusley.
1150
00:56:41.559 --> 00:56:43.119
Hasn't a reliever wanted since then?
1151
00:56:43.719 --> 00:56:46.519
Oh Erica, did Eric Kanye win it? It might have
1152
00:56:46.559 --> 00:56:46.960
been him.
1153
00:56:47.800 --> 00:56:50.000
I'm not going to look at but I feel.
1154
00:56:49.760 --> 00:56:52.119
Like I'm gonna look it up while you're talking. Okay, yeah,
1155
00:56:53.159 --> 00:56:56.519
I have to answer on the show. But I'm just yeah, okay.
1156
00:56:56.360 --> 00:56:59.519
Other than Schemes, and yeah, I get the Sanchez case,
1157
00:57:01.079 --> 00:57:05.480
but Schemes is sort of the clear favorite obviously. But
1158
00:57:05.599 --> 00:57:07.920
I think it's kind of a kind of a mushy
1159
00:57:08.320 --> 00:57:13.599
NL class and I could see pictures just maybe no
1160
00:57:13.639 --> 00:57:18.880
one really emerging, but Miller just having like a crazy
1161
00:57:18.960 --> 00:57:22.079
like fifty saved season with you know, an.
1162
00:57:21.920 --> 00:57:24.000
Era and the ones and a whip.
1163
00:57:24.159 --> 00:57:29.599
In the you know, like well below one. Yeah, it
1164
00:57:29.599 --> 00:57:30.239
could be the year.
1165
00:57:30.800 --> 00:57:34.480
I'm I'm of course having fun with this pick.
1166
00:57:34.960 --> 00:57:36.239
Yeah, that's a fun pick.
1167
00:57:36.760 --> 00:57:37.719
All right, Rookie of the Year.
1168
00:57:37.760 --> 00:57:43.719
Al let's see, did I just lose who? I lost?
1169
00:57:43.719 --> 00:57:45.159
My patrot? Hold on a sick.
1170
00:57:46.920 --> 00:57:49.199
I said Kevin mcdonagall. What's boring, Let's move on.
1171
00:57:49.440 --> 00:57:52.960
What's your h I took Carter Jensen just to be
1172
00:57:53.000 --> 00:57:55.960
a little bit contrarian because I've been kind of fading
1173
00:57:56.000 --> 00:57:59.199
these guys in drafts. But both Jensen and Besao had
1174
00:57:59.280 --> 00:58:02.440
one too, like if Jensen, like if either one of
1175
00:58:02.480 --> 00:58:06.159
them hits it all and is decent defensively, don't win it.
1176
00:58:06.280 --> 00:58:08.679
And it kind of early ties into myself press thing.
1177
00:58:08.719 --> 00:58:11.840
I can see Jensen getting more time behind the plate
1178
00:58:11.920 --> 00:58:13.320
than pres When all said.
1179
00:58:13.199 --> 00:58:16.960
And done, n L Rookie of the Year, I.
1180
00:58:16.840 --> 00:58:18.719
Went with Codder Griffin. It ties back to what I
1181
00:58:18.719 --> 00:58:19.199
said before.
1182
00:58:19.239 --> 00:58:22.239
I still believe he's up by end of April, beginning
1183
00:58:22.239 --> 00:58:24.519
of May, and he's quite the impact player.
1184
00:58:25.000 --> 00:58:27.159
Yeah, I said JJ Weatherhold I just I.
1185
00:58:27.119 --> 00:58:30.920
Think I had him second, so that I don't really disagree.
1186
00:58:31.519 --> 00:58:33.599
He's not as exciting as Griffin. The upside isn't there,
1187
00:58:33.639 --> 00:58:37.800
But I think he's pretty polished and I could see him,
1188
00:58:38.119 --> 00:58:41.039
you know, coming out of the gate doing well and
1189
00:58:41.079 --> 00:58:43.159
not really having that much of an adjustment period.
1190
00:58:43.159 --> 00:58:44.760
Okay, the big one.
1191
00:58:45.639 --> 00:58:47.079
I don't need your division.
1192
00:58:46.719 --> 00:58:50.440
Winners, your wildcard winners, but who are you?
1193
00:58:50.440 --> 00:58:52.199
Who's your what's your World Series matchup?
1194
00:58:52.239 --> 00:58:54.079
And who is the winner.
1195
00:58:55.000 --> 00:58:57.800
I have the Cubs against the Blue Jays, and I
1196
00:58:57.840 --> 00:59:01.079
have the Cubs winning in six, so it's gonna be
1197
00:59:01.119 --> 00:59:04.400
heartbreaking for Blue Jays fans to get there. And lose
1198
00:59:04.480 --> 00:59:05.400
two years in a row.
1199
00:59:06.679 --> 00:59:10.440
Uh, I you know I was gonna I was gonna
1200
00:59:10.440 --> 00:59:13.880
have the Dodgers in losing the World Series. But you know,
1201
00:59:14.039 --> 00:59:17.880
you made the point we're chatting the other day that
1202
00:59:18.800 --> 00:59:21.199
you know, if I guess the path to the Dodgers
1203
00:59:22.519 --> 00:59:28.360
not having a deep run is that the pitching collapses, collapses.
1204
00:59:28.360 --> 00:59:31.840
There's just enough injuries where they go for being you know,
1205
00:59:32.000 --> 00:59:34.320
thick to not kind of having some problems.
1206
00:59:34.960 --> 00:59:38.199
So along those lines, like I was really thinking about, Okay,
1207
00:59:38.280 --> 00:59:40.880
what what rotations could really.
1208
00:59:42.199 --> 00:59:43.159
Handle the postseason?
1209
00:59:43.239 --> 00:59:50.239
So I actually said Tigers over Mets with the one
1210
00:59:50.320 --> 00:59:55.519
two and Valdez. And it's funny because I know the
1211
00:59:55.840 --> 01:00:00.519
that Pakoda has the Royals finishing first in the Central,
1212
01:00:00.599 --> 01:00:03.440
but I don't know, it feels if the Tigers had
1213
01:00:03.639 --> 01:00:05.559
such a promising year last year and it feels like
1214
01:00:05.599 --> 01:00:08.360
they're ready to level up.
1215
01:00:08.840 --> 01:00:12.000
You know, it's funny I had the It's funny I
1216
01:00:12.000 --> 01:00:15.199
had the Tigers as a I'm winning their division over
1217
01:00:15.239 --> 01:00:17.079
the Bible the Royals in the second. So I guess
1218
01:00:17.119 --> 01:00:19.400
I kind of see where I kind of see the
1219
01:00:19.440 --> 01:00:21.880
Royals thing a little bit, although I do wonder about
1220
01:00:21.920 --> 01:00:22.400
their pitching.
1221
01:00:24.239 --> 01:00:27.159
Okay, well that's that's uh what we wanted to get
1222
01:00:27.159 --> 01:00:27.719
through tonight.
1223
01:00:27.880 --> 01:00:29.960
So yeah, we did it.
1224
01:00:30.000 --> 01:00:32.239
Hooray, we did it. Let's go.
1225
01:00:56.800 --> 01:00:59.800
Thank you for listening to episode three forty one of
1226
01:01:00.119 --> 01:01:05.000
Exply Forever, a Baseball Perspectives fantasy baseball podcast. As I mentioned,
1227
01:01:05.079 --> 01:01:08.360
it is opening days, So if you're a subscriber at
1228
01:01:08.400 --> 01:01:10.119
Baseball Perspectives, thank you so much.
1229
01:01:10.159 --> 01:01:13.960
We appreciate you. If you're not, what are you waiting for?
1230
01:01:14.119 --> 01:01:18.119
There's just so much wonderful coverage. There's the fantasy coverage.
1231
01:01:18.840 --> 01:01:21.679
We've got some new writers on, we have a critical
1232
01:01:21.719 --> 01:01:25.199
mass of Mike's and Michaels which is always great. And
1233
01:01:25.239 --> 01:01:27.639
then there's what it's on the main page. So please,
1234
01:01:27.960 --> 01:01:31.000
if you haven't you know, signed up already, you come
1235
01:01:31.039 --> 01:01:33.760
over to the website, take a spin, you know, see
1236
01:01:33.800 --> 01:01:37.159
what's there. We guarantee that if you subscribe, you'll stick around.
1237
01:01:38.119 --> 01:01:41.440
Yep, we're considering changing the name to Michael Perspectus.
1238
01:01:42.559 --> 01:02:42.199
That would be amazing. The m