00:00:02
Speaker 1: Well, this Saturday marks two weeks since the state election, but we still don't have a final result. After it was confirmed yesterday by the Electoral Commission that there's going to have to be a recount in the York Peninsula base seat of Narranga. This is where Fraser Elis, the former Liberal MP Independent, was defeated and it turned into our head to head contest between One Nation and the Liberal Party and they are only separated by a cigarette paper. One Nation's Chantel Thomas is leading by just seventy seven votes. After preferences were distributed, she was on twelve thousand and seventy eight votes and the Liberals tenure Stock was on twelve thousand and one votes. Now, we haven't had it confirmed, but we believe it. Obviously is the Liberal Party that has said to the Electoral Commissioner we think it's too close and we want to have a recount. Unclear how long it is going to take for that recount to be processed, but to discuss the implications of all this, we're joined by Clem McIntyre, who's the emeritus professor of Politics at Adelaide University. Claim good morning, thanks for joining us. My pleasure this could kick on for a while, could it not.
00:01:13
Speaker 2: I shouldn't take too long. What is it, sort of twenty four thousand votes or so? The electoral Commission's already done a full count and effectively divided those all those votes into the two piles of the two most preferred candidates. And as you say, one Nation candidate is ahead by some seventy seven votes at the moment. But to do a recount you go back to scratch, effectively. But the thing with the recount is that the major political party, certainly one motion and the Liberal party, will have scrutinies standing there looking at every single ballot paper. There's a chance in the first count that a few votes end up in the wrong pile. It doesn't often happen, but you know it can happen, just sort of a mission and people overlooking the destination of the ballot paper. But when the scrutinies are standing here at a recount, every single paper will be looked at, and the task of the scrutiny is will be to try and make a case, on the one hand that that vote shouldn't count because the voter's intention isn't clear, the numbers aren't written in a way that is definitely legible if the vote seems to be going against your party. On the other hand, if the vote looks like it's going towards your party, then you want to argue it in as much as you can, and the electric commissioner will make the final determination so that the slowness can be the process of watching over it and ensuring that every single vote is eligible to be ended into the count and is allocated to the right pile.
00:02:48
Speaker 3: Claim. What does history tell us with regard to trying to make up a seventy seven vote differential on a recount, Yeah.
00:02:56
Speaker 2: Pretty hard. I think I haven't got the definitive figures with me. But it's not unusual to have ten twelve fifteen votes either argued in or out or found to be in the wrong pile in a recount, which is why when there's a difference of several hundred, parties tend not to bother. But with seventy seven, it only needs what sort of forty odd votes to be turned from one part to the other to make a difference. It's possible, but I think it's probably unlikely. But it's possible that the recount will show a different.
00:03:35
Speaker 1: Result, so claim if the One Nation candidate wins, My reading of it is that she will win thanks in no small part to preferences from the Liberal Party, who are now the ones who are upset at the result and want the recount. That's correct, isn't that?
00:03:57
Speaker 2: No, not in the seed of Narunga will be winning the seat on the basis of liberal pressures.
00:04:03
Speaker 1: Of course, because the liber hasn't been eliminated.
00:04:05
Speaker 2: No, the Liberals and one Nation of the final two candidates in this one. But in the seats when all of the other sorry just to say, when all of the other parties have been eliminated from the count, of course, their preference get allocated and they've ended up in these two piles at the end.
00:04:20
Speaker 1: But is it right, though, to say that in the seats where one Nation has succeeded that they have, well, at least in two seats. From my reading, they've done it because of the decision of the Liberals to give them preferences.
00:04:33
Speaker 2: It looks like that to me too.
00:04:35
Speaker 1: So do you think that's going to force a bit of a rethink about the tactics that the Liberals used, you'd think.
00:04:41
Speaker 2: So. I'm still scratching my head trying to work out why the Liberal Party decided to do that. Ashton Hern was speaking publicly before the election saying that we'd rather another center right party being the party than more Labor. Well, two things to say, I suppose. One is I'm not sure One Nation would describe itself center right. I think it's not so much center but more right. And secondly, this is a party that is overtly trying to replace the Liberal Party in our political system, and the Liberals by giving them preferences and facilitating the election of a couple of members, have really given them oxygen the space in the Parliament that they might not otherwise have had. So whether it's better to have two more One Nation candidate sitting behind you, as it were, on the opposition benches or to be facing just another two Labor members in the big crowd of Labor members that were being elected is debatable. But I'm struggling to understand why the Liberals took that decision. It will be interesting to see what happens in Farah when that by election comes up, and particularly the Victorian election later this year.
00:05:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, given they almost use the Liberals, but one more seat, we'll be having an argument now, abou who should be the proper opposition? Actually, and it will probably be one nation because of their primary vote.
00:05:59
Speaker 2: Well, that would be certainly an argument. It's not a definitive argument, but that would be a consideration certainly, and a pretty powerful argument, I think too.
00:06:11
Speaker 3: Yeah, hey, clem, why we're talking about counting oddities? The seat of phinnis loud Nicholson has won despite coming fourth on first preferences?
00:06:20
Speaker 2: Have you yes?
00:06:21
Speaker 3: Can you recall anything similar that happening in South Australian politics in your time?
00:06:25
Speaker 2: No. As soon as I saw that result of I was scratching their head talking for colleagues saying, can anyone remember someone coming from fourth to win it? And no? Of course, while we've had politics in South Australia so dominated by two parts for years and years years, the LCL followed by the Liberal Party as that sort of changed its name and structures a bit in the late sixties on the one side and Labor on the other. Then you know, those parties used to win seventy eighty percent or more of the primary vote, so there was never any prospect of some further down the count picking up enough preferences to win the seat. To win from forth you really need four candidates to be almost equal on about just over twenty and then to pick up the preferences of the very minor parties that are eliminated before that. And I've gone to lou Nicholson who stayed just in front of Labor at that at that point. So it is very unusual. It reflects the fact that politics is no longer or certainly at that last election, no longer dominated by two parties. But there's there's a multiple group of parties and strong independents that can now win seats.
00:07:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, as Peter melon Essex said when we spoke to them the day after the election, there's no such thing as a safe seat anymore. Great analysis as always, Clem Professor Clem McIntyre from the Adelaide.
00:07:56
Speaker 3: University, for I think he's it was the first time that the Greens have finished in the top two two can they preferred in South Australian history. Despite all the consideration about Hysen and the Hills being a potential Green pick up, it's actually now, Peter manas is that far Eddon Croydon. It doesn't matter. It's entirely academic but they actually finished in second spot in his seat, first time they've done that.
00:08:19
Speaker 1: Anyway,
Speaker 1: Well, this Saturday marks two weeks since the state election, but we still don't have a final result. After it was confirmed yesterday by the Electoral Commission that there's going to have to be a recount in the York Peninsula base seat of Narranga. This is where Fraser Elis, the former Liberal MP Independent, was defeated and it turned into our head to head contest between One Nation and the Liberal Party and they are only separated by a cigarette paper. One Nation's Chantel Thomas is leading by just seventy seven votes. After preferences were distributed, she was on twelve thousand and seventy eight votes and the Liberals tenure Stock was on twelve thousand and one votes. Now, we haven't had it confirmed, but we believe it. Obviously is the Liberal Party that has said to the Electoral Commissioner we think it's too close and we want to have a recount. Unclear how long it is going to take for that recount to be processed, but to discuss the implications of all this, we're joined by Clem McIntyre, who's the emeritus professor of Politics at Adelaide University. Claim good morning, thanks for joining us. My pleasure this could kick on for a while, could it not.
00:01:13
Speaker 2: I shouldn't take too long. What is it, sort of twenty four thousand votes or so? The electoral Commission's already done a full count and effectively divided those all those votes into the two piles of the two most preferred candidates. And as you say, one Nation candidate is ahead by some seventy seven votes at the moment. But to do a recount you go back to scratch, effectively. But the thing with the recount is that the major political party, certainly one motion and the Liberal party, will have scrutinies standing there looking at every single ballot paper. There's a chance in the first count that a few votes end up in the wrong pile. It doesn't often happen, but you know it can happen, just sort of a mission and people overlooking the destination of the ballot paper. But when the scrutinies are standing here at a recount, every single paper will be looked at, and the task of the scrutiny is will be to try and make a case, on the one hand that that vote shouldn't count because the voter's intention isn't clear, the numbers aren't written in a way that is definitely legible if the vote seems to be going against your party. On the other hand, if the vote looks like it's going towards your party, then you want to argue it in as much as you can, and the electric commissioner will make the final determination so that the slowness can be the process of watching over it and ensuring that every single vote is eligible to be ended into the count and is allocated to the right pile.
00:02:48
Speaker 3: Claim. What does history tell us with regard to trying to make up a seventy seven vote differential on a recount, Yeah.
00:02:56
Speaker 2: Pretty hard. I think I haven't got the definitive figures with me. But it's not unusual to have ten twelve fifteen votes either argued in or out or found to be in the wrong pile in a recount, which is why when there's a difference of several hundred, parties tend not to bother. But with seventy seven, it only needs what sort of forty odd votes to be turned from one part to the other to make a difference. It's possible, but I think it's probably unlikely. But it's possible that the recount will show a different.
00:03:35
Speaker 1: Result, so claim if the One Nation candidate wins, My reading of it is that she will win thanks in no small part to preferences from the Liberal Party, who are now the ones who are upset at the result and want the recount. That's correct, isn't that?
00:03:57
Speaker 2: No, not in the seed of Narunga will be winning the seat on the basis of liberal pressures.
00:04:03
Speaker 1: Of course, because the liber hasn't been eliminated.
00:04:05
Speaker 2: No, the Liberals and one Nation of the final two candidates in this one. But in the seats when all of the other sorry just to say, when all of the other parties have been eliminated from the count, of course, their preference get allocated and they've ended up in these two piles at the end.
00:04:20
Speaker 1: But is it right, though, to say that in the seats where one Nation has succeeded that they have, well, at least in two seats. From my reading, they've done it because of the decision of the Liberals to give them preferences.
00:04:33
Speaker 2: It looks like that to me too.
00:04:35
Speaker 1: So do you think that's going to force a bit of a rethink about the tactics that the Liberals used, you'd think.
00:04:41
Speaker 2: So. I'm still scratching my head trying to work out why the Liberal Party decided to do that. Ashton Hern was speaking publicly before the election saying that we'd rather another center right party being the party than more Labor. Well, two things to say, I suppose. One is I'm not sure One Nation would describe itself center right. I think it's not so much center but more right. And secondly, this is a party that is overtly trying to replace the Liberal Party in our political system, and the Liberals by giving them preferences and facilitating the election of a couple of members, have really given them oxygen the space in the Parliament that they might not otherwise have had. So whether it's better to have two more One Nation candidate sitting behind you, as it were, on the opposition benches or to be facing just another two Labor members in the big crowd of Labor members that were being elected is debatable. But I'm struggling to understand why the Liberals took that decision. It will be interesting to see what happens in Farah when that by election comes up, and particularly the Victorian election later this year.
00:05:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, given they almost use the Liberals, but one more seat, we'll be having an argument now, abou who should be the proper opposition? Actually, and it will probably be one nation because of their primary vote.
00:05:59
Speaker 2: Well, that would be certainly an argument. It's not a definitive argument, but that would be a consideration certainly, and a pretty powerful argument, I think too.
00:06:11
Speaker 3: Yeah, hey, clem, why we're talking about counting oddities? The seat of phinnis loud Nicholson has won despite coming fourth on first preferences?
00:06:20
Speaker 2: Have you yes?
00:06:21
Speaker 3: Can you recall anything similar that happening in South Australian politics in your time?
00:06:25
Speaker 2: No. As soon as I saw that result of I was scratching their head talking for colleagues saying, can anyone remember someone coming from fourth to win it? And no? Of course, while we've had politics in South Australia so dominated by two parts for years and years years, the LCL followed by the Liberal Party as that sort of changed its name and structures a bit in the late sixties on the one side and Labor on the other. Then you know, those parties used to win seventy eighty percent or more of the primary vote, so there was never any prospect of some further down the count picking up enough preferences to win the seat. To win from forth you really need four candidates to be almost equal on about just over twenty and then to pick up the preferences of the very minor parties that are eliminated before that. And I've gone to lou Nicholson who stayed just in front of Labor at that at that point. So it is very unusual. It reflects the fact that politics is no longer or certainly at that last election, no longer dominated by two parties. But there's there's a multiple group of parties and strong independents that can now win seats.
00:07:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, as Peter melon Essex said when we spoke to them the day after the election, there's no such thing as a safe seat anymore. Great analysis as always, Clem Professor Clem McIntyre from the Adelaide.
00:07:56
Speaker 3: University, for I think he's it was the first time that the Greens have finished in the top two two can they preferred in South Australian history. Despite all the consideration about Hysen and the Hills being a potential Green pick up, it's actually now, Peter manas is that far Eddon Croydon. It doesn't matter. It's entirely academic but they actually finished in second spot in his seat, first time they've done that.
00:08:19
Speaker 1: Anyway,
