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Speaker 1: Hey, Welcome to the official show here on the Fish Stripes podcast channel. Eli Susman here managing editor at Fist Stripes covering all things Miami Marlins for you. This would be a pretty quick episode touching on the state of the Marlins starting rotation. If you follow the team closely on fifth Stripes dot com, on our social media accounts at fist Stripes, Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, etc. Watch the games, you're well aware that the Marlin is one of the things they take so much pride in at this particular point in their rebuilds. Is the depth of their starting rotation and the upside of a lot of these young starters. Sandy Alcontra, Pablo Lopez essentially locked in to the twenty twenty one opening day rotation, Ellie as Hernandez likely to have a slot in there. Six do Sanchez Trevor Rodgers right in that discussion for the back end of the rotation. All guys that we saw in the majors for the first time last year, and most of the rookies that we saw flashed a lot of promise in those roles, very encouraging. All these guys under control for four more years or more they're very bright days ahead when it comes to this Marlin's rotation, there's no doubt about it. With a focus on the upcoming season, however, you see some red flags, or at least I see some red flags. I haven't seen them mentioned all that often. I have periodically been beating the strum the last couple of months that the Marlins need to do something outside of their current internal rotation options to shure up things heading into this upcoming season, to make some sort of effort to defend their postseason birth in twenty twenty. And some interesting news coming out of Wednesday, not a shock. I'd been alluding to it for a couple of days now that Corey Kluber, the former al Cy Young Award winner, was going to be holding a throwing session in West Palm Beach, specifically at Eric Kressy's facility called Cressy Sports Performance. Mostly are probably that doesn't ring any belts, but it is a facility right around the corner from where the Marlins have their spring complex in Jupiter. Countless Marlins pitchers throughout the last decade have worked out there, everybody from Brad Hand and Steve Seeschek to their current top prospects like Braxton Garrett, Jordan Holloway. I'm just thinking of the guys that I've seen there personally, but there's probably others behind the scenes. It is a very highly regarded facility, and Corey Klueber has credited that facility for a lot of his development as a Lake bloomer, a guy that was never held in super high regard as a prospect, someone that was traded before he even made much of a dent in the majors, traded to the Indians, and then pretty soon after he got there and got to the major league level, he exploded as one of the more consistent starting pitchers in all of baseball twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen. Every year, a five win pitcher, a six win pitcher above replacement level, even topping out at seven point two wins above a placement level. Just a joy to watch him during those handful of years. And on Wednesday, he held a throwing session in West Palm Beach. The finer details coming from Jeff Passon of ESPN that nearly twenty five teams showed up to see Kluber at his showcase fastball averaging sitting eighty eight to ninety miles per hour with an expectation that he wasn't going one hundred percent. There was an understanding that he was still progressing to get to full on throwing baseball shape, as most pitchers do as we get closer. Just fring training, thirty total pitches and he threw both his fastballs and his off speed stuff. Compared to where he was in twenty eighteen, that last full season as an ACE level pitcher, Klueber's stock is significantly down and the Marlins have something to do with that. Unintentionally, of course. When the Indians were at Marlins Park about a month into the twenty nineteenth season, Brian Anderson are beloved. Brian Anderson at the Blake hit a scorching line drive comebacker that went right at Klueber during that start that day, and Kluber had to exit early clutching at his elbow and it turned out that he fractured his elbow. Oh my goodness, it nailed Klueber. Oh my goodness, it got him on the pitching arm, and that is not good. He could not get out of the way, that's for sure. It sidelined him for a couple months. On his way rehabbing from that injury, he suffered a separate, unrelated core injury, I think an oblique injury and never made it back for the Indians down the stretch of that twenty nineteen season. Got traded over the off season heading into twenty twenty, a move that was relatively unpopular. It seems even then that the Indians were selling low on Cluber didn't get a blue chip prospect in return. As it turns out, the Rangers only got one start, one abbreviated start out a Clooper, before he suffered another injury to a muscle right near his throwing shoulder. No structural damage to the shoulder itself, but a muscle right around there. And during the shortened season he didn't have the opportunity to come back from that either. Over the last two seasons, combined just limited to what is this eight total starts from this guy, and combined that with his age, the fact that he'll soon be turning thirty five years old, there's a reason why he is available at this stage of the offseason and a reason why the Marlins were in attendance. So, as I mentioned, a few minutes ago. This workout was happening literally down the street from the Marlins facility. They had no excuse for missing out on this, and the fact that they showed up it does not necessarily reflect that they have any serious interest in Kluber. They just had the good practice to show up and do their due diligence, as almost every team in the majors did. Joel Sherman of The New York Post has been on top of Kluber's progression to get to this point the last week or so. From his angle of course, being in New York, he is looking at it from the Yankees potential interest and the Mets potential interest. I'd say, and there's a good reason I believe those are more likely destinations for Kluber than the Marlins are. And I mean, what Joel pointed out is for someone at this stage of his career will be entering his age thirty five season, that and this is quoting Sherman, usually a mid thirties broken toy pitcher stays that way when players have a significant hiatus the way that he has had, or just generally being very limited in time. I should mention that over those eight starts that he made the last two years. The bottom line results are not Kluber like. He was about half a win above replacement level pro rated over a full year. He was pitching like a league average pitcher during that small sample in twenty nineteen and twenty twenty, So that's notable. It's a small sample. But if you have no other data on him over the last two and a half years, then that needs to weigh into the situation, and that explains why he is the kind of guy that conceivably could fall within the Marlins price range. But I mean back to Joel Sherman. He points out a couple exceptions to the norm, guys in this late age of their career that have revived their careers and sustained a high level of performance for a significant amount of time after that. John Smoltz in the Hall of Famer, he had Tommy John surgery into his thirties, came back as a reliever dominant rely, and then later into his thirties he was back in the rotation again for the Braves. There's also the case of Bartolo Cologne, the ageless Bartolo Cologne. Now as we're recording this, in his late forties and still not technically retired from baseball, But in his late thirties he had that ped suspension for a typis steroid and he missed big time of that serving his suspension. Yet he came back from that with the Oakland A's and he was one of the best pitchers in their rotation for several years. Came to the National League East with the Mets, and he was good enough with the Mets that he was starting games in the postseason for them. I believe he also appeared in that twenty fifteen World Series, by which went he was already forty two years old, so he had a lot of longevity afterwards, and I remember his velocity also was astoundingly good for that age, still sitting in the mid nineties. To me, though, the example the exception to the norm, the optimistic outcome for Kluber at this time point would probably look something like Chris Carpenter. You may remember Chris Carpenter from the Cardinals. I mean he won a Cy Young Award in the early two thousands. Somewhat of a similar career trajectory with Clubber in terms of how late he emerged as a star pitcher. He had a handful of years early on with the Blue Jays where didn't do much of anything, and it wasn't until he winded up with the Cardinals that he emerged as the best version of himself, a credible endings eater for about a two or three year span, and then in two thousand and seven it was he underwent Tommy John surgery and at that point he was I believe thirty three, thirty four years old. That's a more serious setback than the shoulder at the elbow and shoulder muscle injuries that Kluber has, but it did its part in sidetracking him for the better part of two years in two and seven, two thousand and eight, and yet he came back from that with the Cardinals and he had another three four really great years after that in the rotation as one of the league leaders in ennings pitched. And that's what really appeals to me about Kluber is the track record he has had a as a work course, because that's the main concern that I have with these Marlins pitchers. You have Sandy Alcontra to this point in his career. Thankfully, Sandy has been virtually injury free, missed a little time on the injured list with an arm infection in twenty eighteen, but that was more of a fluke injury than anything that you should be worried about. The problem is outside of him, almost every other candidate for a Marlins rotation job, whether it's for opening Day twenty twenty one or as it called, mid season, there are concerns with all of them, at least in their track record when it comes to their health. Pablo Lopez, who has always been my very favorite rotation candidate for the Marlins since he emerged around the same time that Sandy did, coming off a great twenty twenty season, but prior to that, he's said year after year of shoulder issues, and he also has Tommy John very far in his history, but in twenty eighteen and even more severely in twenty nineteen miss time with a shoulder strain. With Jordan Yamamoto that some of you are pretty low on, understandably with Yamamoto coming off what he did in twenty twenty, but he has some intriguing swing and miss stuff, and he's just as young as Pablo and Sandy is a minor league option remaining he could still have a role with this organization moving forward if he's healthy. But just like with Pablo, he's had a couple shoulder injuries in his recent history as well. Six do Sanchez. I mean, the reason why he was available to the Marlins in the first place is because Marlon the Phillies weren't totally sold on his long term durability. He suffered an elbow injury in twenty eighteen that limited his progress through their farm system at that point. Thankfully, the Marlins managed him pretty carefully in twenty nineteen and there was no recurrence of that elbow issue whatsoever. But he is unconventionally small in stature for a starting pitcher, and fair or not, that's always going to play into the calculus and how much you really trust them a year in and year out. Braxton Garrett, Tommy John survivor Jordan Holloway, Tommy John's survivor, Nick Niger in twenty nineteen missed a big chunk of the year with a meniscous injury, so not quite as directly implicated with your pitching ability. That may have been somewhat unlucky on his part. I'm still pretty high on Nider, but that's again, his availability is somewhat in doubt, and Eliezer Hernandez, who I've seen pretty frequently mentioned as trade bait, whether it's for Andrew ben and Tendi or Wilson Contreras. Personally, in my mind, he's pretty essential to what the Marlins are trying to accomplish this coming year if he's healthy, because he was not around for this postseason run with the Marlins or in all of after suffering a lat injury, and by all accounts he is fully recovered from that at this point, with spring training almost around the corner, he seems to be back on track from that. But it's pretty much everybody. Trevor Rodgers is kind of the exception here where Rogers is. He was handled also pretty carefully early in his career coming out of the draft, but as far as I can tell, has never really had that one significant injury that gives you great pause when you're projecting forward to a full season. And that's what we're doing at this point because Major League Baseball sent out a memo to all the teams, all the agents recently declaring their intention of opening spring training camps on time in mid February, starting spring training games in late February and keeping opening day just as it was scheduled to be on April first. If you're going to proceed within one hundred and sixty two game season, you know work in potentially some postponements or cans for COVID related reasons. That if you're going to make it through this whole season, a major league team should proceed with at least a group of ten potential starting pitchers that they trust in their organization. And I named about nine of them just now. And there are a few others you could put in that conversation. Daniel Costano, who I think exceeded just about everybody's expectations with what he did last year, although I'm not sure how sustainable that is. George Guzman, who was held in very high regard not that long ago being acquired from the Yankees, and the Gean Carlos Stanton trade. There are you could if you squinn carefully enough, if you are really on the bright side, then maybe you could see a path for the Marlins doing this all with existing options. But I'm just here to give you a reality check that these guys are not experienced, because not only do most of them have somewhat concerning injury in their recent past, but you just don't have a track record of any of them doing much at all at the major league level, aside from Sandy having a couple of quality seasons under his belt. At this point, you you'll really, I mean I personally, I'll give you my preference with Edward Cabrera. Another name that we should mention that we'll definitely be debuting during twenty twenty one. Edward Cabrera. I'm really high on Nick knighterd as well. I think those guys can step up to the majors and immediately be quality starters. They could be, They have the potential to be. That doesn't mean they will be. With these type of players, most of them, evaluators will tell you they have a future grade somewhere between forty five fifty and fifty five, right around a league average quality starting pitcher. All of them have the potential to be really solid starters at the very least back end starting pitchers, But that's almost the best case scenario. Even if they do stay healthy, and even if they do reach their potential, there's no saying that they're going to reach their potential in their rookie year or in their first full year, even if they had debuted in twenty twenty, all of them are on different timelines, bringing us right back to Corey Klueber, who did not settle in as an elite starting pitcher until he was twenty eight years old. That's pretty far along, just to put that in perspective. When he was twenty eight he emerged. There's nobody in the Marlins organization who will even be who's a rotation candidate. Legitimately that will even be twenty seven on opening day. Daniel Castano is the oldest of the bunch, and if you take him and put him on the back burner as triple A depth, then the graybeard of their projected rotation is Eliez or Hernandez, who is not even twenty six. So these guys are all on their different schedules. The Marlins have invested a lot of energy and time into putting together the best possible player development operation. We've seen some very positive signs from the way these pitchers have progressed through the miners, the way that they stepped up coming out at the alternate training site during the twenty twenty season. There are some good things happening here, but that doesn't guarantee that these guys will be totally ready to be the best version of themselves immediately. There may need to be some adjustments when you're approaching this twenty twenty one season. There's a case to be made that coming off of the pandemic, with all the lost opportunities to make revenue for the team, the fact that the Marlins, through some very poor timing, were sattled with the entire salary of wig in Chin, all twenty two million dollars instead of having it pro rated. The organization probably lost money this past season, and as of this recording, their TV deal is still in limbo, their local television deal, which is something we circled as soon as the team changed ownership three plus years ago, that renegotiating that deal long term was going to be so critical to this organization actually spending like a mid market team instead of one of the smallest in the league, and they the reality is they've steadily reduced their payroll each year under new ownership, and they're poised to do that again, at least compared to what the full season's worth of revenue, full seasons and worth of payroll would have been in twenty twenty that currently they're on track to spend less than sixty million dollars on payroll entering the new season, and if they stand pat with what they are right now, it's a roll of the dice that they are internal options that a good chunk of these prospects, many who we saw at the major league level for the first time last year, others that are right on the cusp of the debuting in twenty twenty one, and even some that have been are in that post prospect by low situation, Isan Diez, Lewis Brinson, guys that we've seen some discouraging things from a major league gumbo but still have incredible pedigree and skill. It's not insane to bank on the fact that those guys will reach it a new level after that's some combination, they'll find the right players to step up in those situations at second base, between Isan and Jazz Chisholm in right field, between Brinson and Monte Harrison, and Harold Ramirez and Jyesus Sanchez at catchers. If Jorge Alfaro bounces back from a pretty much lost year, that this could be a cheap team and still be a very competitive team, but there's no reason for them to stamp pat given the limited commitments they have and understanding the fan based mindset that we had so much fun during the twenty twenty season, and it doesn't seem like you're upholding your commitment to the fans if you're not actively seeking ways to improve the team, to plug holes, to do so efficiently at a time where spring training is around the corner and they're still well over one hundred major league free agents, a lot of decent free agents, some star level free agents still out there. That with all those guys out there, as those dates approach, you got to think that they'll be attainable on relatively affordable deals. Corey Klueber being one example. Based on the best estimates from ESPN and also from Joel Sherman of The New York Post, they think his market is going to be a guaranteed deal around the five million dollar range five million, six million dollars guaranteed, with a bunch of incentives on top of that that give him the opportunity to perhaps even triple that salary upwards of fifteen million to eighteen million something like that, where if he has the season that we've historically seen from him, where he makes thirty two starts, where he keeps his ra around three, and where he strikes out two hundred, two hundred and twenty five hitters. That that would give him a opportunity to make a bunch of money for himself, the kind of salary that he's accustomed to having under his previous contract. And would the Marlins make that type of offer to him. I don't think so. Maybe that guarantee is reasonable for them, although I don't think they would hop on quite as many incentives and potentially put themselves in a position where they're paying so much for him. But I think the fit is absolutely there, given how durable he was before these couple fluky injuries, and despite his age. He is a guy that you could get on a one year deal, which is not something that could be said for all the available free agent starters at this time. One name that I circled at the beginning of the off season was Jake Odorizzi, who, somewhat like Klueber, was kind of sidetracked in his career by a fluky injury in twenty twenty. He absolutely would have pitched in twenty twenty some more if it was a full length season, but he was limited to three or four poor starts due to a stints on the IL. As things have progressed, and if you've seen some of these other deals that starting pitchers are getting in free agency, they're doing pretty well for themselves. It's kind of surprising. Guys Charlie Morden, for example, let go by the Rays and ends up signing for a whole lot more money than the Rays would have owed him under his club option, the way that Drew Smiley also got paid by the Braves, even though Smiley had a very limited track record of actually being a steady, reliable starter. And oh Mike Minor going to the Kansas City for a big two year deal despite also being very deep into his thirties. That someone like oda Rizzi I think is going to be a multi year guarantee, as will of course Trevor Bauer being out there, probably Taiwan Walker multi year deal for him as well. And for the Marlins, I think the best fit is having someone on a one year deal. I think it's reasonable for them to prioritize short term help and put their faith in some of these pitchers that are coming up through the system. If you're dreaming of a future where the Marlins can build their whole rotation, most of their entire pitching staff out of just homegrown arms, that future could be here as soon as twenty twenty two, but it's not here right now. If the team actually has any aspirations of being competitive, if they want people to believe that they're trying at the major league level, they still need to do more. It goes without saying they needed to do more offensively, whether it's a catcher or in right field or just a general power left handed bat, that there are a variety of things they can do on the offensive side to give themselves a better chance. And of course, probably the most obvious glaring need they have right now is in the back end of their bullpen. After not resigning Brandon Kinzler, who remains out there in free agency, and the understandable interest they may want to look for different type of reliever in that role. They have other areas to address. Starring picture is not at the top of the list. I'm not saying that it should be the highest priority, but I think it should be addressed in some way before we get to the start of the season, and one other way just per sent what I've been hammering home the last what twenty twenty five minutes is if you look at their rotation last year, I mean there were unusual circumstances of course last year with the COVID outbreak, but some of the pictures who made starts for them in twenty twenty Caleb Smith, who's since been traded to the Diamondbacks. I'm virtual Mahea who has traded along with him. Josh A Smith made a start and he has since signed to play in Korea. Jose Ouurina has since moved on to the Tigers. And there was one more I thought I saw, yeah, and Robert Duggar. Robert Dugger made a start as well in several longer relief appearances, but he's since been cleaned off waivers by the Mariners. Overall, that is eleven starts from the sixty game season. I love how that number lines up. Eleven out of sixty. It is pretty close to once every five days. Those are the number of pitchers that starts for them last season that are no longer in the organization, and that leaves to me avoid avoid for them to fill because over the course of a full season. There are those injury concerns I mentioned, There are those inexperienced concerns that can manifest themselves in poor performance. There could be some of these prospects that we are so high on that simply things don't click for them immediately and they need to be sent back down that over the course of a season, you're gonna need a lot of decent starting pitchers. Marlins are in an a fortunate place where all of their internal options are under long term control and they're all extremely cheap for this upcoming season. None of them are even arbitration eligible yet among these starting pitching options, So despite the uncertainty with their local television deal, it's going to be there relatively soon. I'm not looking for them to make anything, to do anything risky that has long term implications in this department, but there should be room to do something for twenty twenty one. There are a bunch of options out there, aside from Kluber, just other names that I think could be attainable on a one year deal. Jose Kintana, Alex Wood, Geo Gonzalez, who's a Miami native, and Ani bal Sanchez, an old friend who we've seen in this division the last few years. He's coming off a down year as well. I'm compared to them, though, I'd say Cluber, which is clearly the one that has more upside of the bunch. He is also the oldest one of the bunch. And just going back to the insider Joel Sherman from the New York Post, he seems not directly reporting it, but he seems pretty convinced that the Mets would be a great fit for Corey Kluber. We've seen what the Mets have done this offseason, most recently the blockbuster to acquire both Carlos Carrasco and Francisco Lindor from the Indians that even though they finished behind the Marlins in the standings last year, it's going to be hard to dispute that they're the superior team right now. And if not them, I could see the Phillies going in in this department. The Phillies have been awfully quiet this offseason, and I don't think they're content with continuing to be an embarrassment relative to expectations that they'll do something on the back end of their rotation. And honestly, just about any team except for the Braves. The Braves seem more or less set with their rotation for the twenty twenty one season, but if going with Kluber prevents him from haunting you within the division, understanding that, as the schedule is originally said, about half their games come inside the NL East, but I think we should also consider the possibility that as things get closer, depending on where we are with COVID, that Major League Baseball may opt to adjust the schedule and make it very regional in the same way that the twenty twenty season was. Remember last year, the Marlins played two thirds of their games within the division in the NL East for that reason, and I don't think we can totally rule that out. Again, just understanding the kind of elevated risk in terms of transmitting the virus that happens when you're doing travel, so adjustments could be made in the schedule where you travel less and you play some familiar faces a lot more. In the same way that the Marlins got extremely rough luck. They faced Jacob de Gram in four consecutive starts during the middle of the year, and surprisingly one I think one or two of those games against the Gram. But they may not get so lucky with Kober, and imagine the scenario if they're both teammates next year, leading the Mets rotation to try to vault themselves to the top of the division for the first time in a long time. I just want to see them do something in this rotation department for all the reasons just mentioned, and just one final thing about the intangibles that veterans starting pitchers can bring. I think a lot of us got frustrated at times with what jos Ourania did as Marlin. Glimpses of being the kind of great picture you think he could be, but never really sustaining it for big portions of time, never putting it all together, and finishing his Marlin's tenure on a very unfortunate note, eerily similar to Corey Klueber's injury with a line drive comebacker right at the mound that fractured his arm made him unavailable for the postseason. But with that being said, he's a guy that you ask just about any of these young starting pictures in the Marlins rotation right now contending for jobs in the near future. They looked up to him, They really respected him. Arana wasn't all that much older than them, but when they arrived to the Marlins, most of them via trade, that arena was already here. He was already in the rotation. He already knew about Miami, and he was someone that came from very humble roots. That he was not a highly regarded prospect at all early in his professional career, and he worked himself into being even if it wasn't the very best version of himself. That he was a starting pitcher in this league for several years and one of the only familiar faces in this rotation both before and after the ownership change. They respected him in that same category Dan Strayley, who is pitching Korea last year in his back resigning with that team for twenty twenty one, that Dan Strayley, even you put knocks on him for having trouble keeping balls in the ballpark and maybe the Marlins give up too much in the trade to acquire him from Cincinnati a few years back. He was the same way in terms of how he went out of his way to help you pictures, to help them develop best practices, to answer any of the questions that they had, from the very important ones to just the basics about how to go about a routine and how to make adjustments darning a game, what type of data to look at to be the best version of yourselves, how to interpret your performance. That these are the intangibles that veteran pictures can bring. As sexy as it is to envision a homegrown, young rotation like the Marlins could potentially have, that veteran presence is still so critical to bring in and to me, the Marblins are really fortunate that we're in this offseason that is moving so slowly and way more supply than there is demand of these type of guys that they can get really impactful on and off the field, starting picture on a relatively cheap one year deal. I'm not optimistic that it's going to be Kluber. I think attending his workout as much as anything, was doing their due diligence and of course aided by the convenience of being where he was situated right around the corner from their facility. So I wouldn't get your hopes up about that. But this is once again another plea for them. Whether maybe there's a creative trade out there that I'm overlooking, but most likely via free agency, that Marlins makes some sort of one year commitment to bring in veteran presence to make sure that they're highly coveted young starting pitchers so have a world of potential that being around a veteran picture who has been there and done that before could make so much of a difference in how they perform during twenty twenty one, but also the kind of trajectory that they're on for the rest of the decade and put them in position to reach their full potential by having the good influences around them. Thanks for listening, guys. If you want more coverage on Andrew Benin Tendee on Wilson Contreras, we have full articles with trade proposals on them upon fishtripes dot com. I handled the Ben and Tendie one. The Wilson Contreras article that's from Ethan Podowski. We will have a pretty massive presence on our Fishtripes platform throughout the spring and into the summer, so I'm very excited for Ethan's involvement in our content, as well more than a dozen other contributors that will be on Fish Stripes, on the podcast and on the website this upcoming season. There's still some big plans to get sorted out once we get a little more certainty about what the season is going to look like and exactly what kind of team the Marlins have put together for the season. So I made a plea for the Marlins to do more. But I also want to calm everybody down, anybody that is panicking about the Marlins not doing anything, that there are still so many options out there in the way that the market is moving so slowly that I'm still optimistic that we'll have something new to talk about relatively soon. Next episode of the Officials show, we will have a special guest that is MLB dot com Marlins Beat reporter brand new to that full time position, Christina de Nicola. So if you have any specific questions for her, just let me know on social media or on the website so that we can ask that to her. That should be a fun episode that you'll find on the same feed wherever you listen to your podcasts. Please subscribe, rate, and review on Apple Podcasts. That'd be much appreciated as well. And anything else you want me to talk about in the near future about the way that this Marlin seems coming together, you know how to contact me with those suggestions for Eli Susman and all the fish stripes. Thank you for listening. Go fish The p
Speaker 1: Hey, Welcome to the official show here on the Fish Stripes podcast channel. Eli Susman here managing editor at Fist Stripes covering all things Miami Marlins for you. This would be a pretty quick episode touching on the state of the Marlins starting rotation. If you follow the team closely on fifth Stripes dot com, on our social media accounts at fist Stripes, Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, etc. Watch the games, you're well aware that the Marlin is one of the things they take so much pride in at this particular point in their rebuilds. Is the depth of their starting rotation and the upside of a lot of these young starters. Sandy Alcontra, Pablo Lopez essentially locked in to the twenty twenty one opening day rotation, Ellie as Hernandez likely to have a slot in there. Six do Sanchez Trevor Rodgers right in that discussion for the back end of the rotation. All guys that we saw in the majors for the first time last year, and most of the rookies that we saw flashed a lot of promise in those roles, very encouraging. All these guys under control for four more years or more they're very bright days ahead when it comes to this Marlin's rotation, there's no doubt about it. With a focus on the upcoming season, however, you see some red flags, or at least I see some red flags. I haven't seen them mentioned all that often. I have periodically been beating the strum the last couple of months that the Marlins need to do something outside of their current internal rotation options to shure up things heading into this upcoming season, to make some sort of effort to defend their postseason birth in twenty twenty. And some interesting news coming out of Wednesday, not a shock. I'd been alluding to it for a couple of days now that Corey Kluber, the former al Cy Young Award winner, was going to be holding a throwing session in West Palm Beach, specifically at Eric Kressy's facility called Cressy Sports Performance. Mostly are probably that doesn't ring any belts, but it is a facility right around the corner from where the Marlins have their spring complex in Jupiter. Countless Marlins pitchers throughout the last decade have worked out there, everybody from Brad Hand and Steve Seeschek to their current top prospects like Braxton Garrett, Jordan Holloway. I'm just thinking of the guys that I've seen there personally, but there's probably others behind the scenes. It is a very highly regarded facility, and Corey Klueber has credited that facility for a lot of his development as a Lake bloomer, a guy that was never held in super high regard as a prospect, someone that was traded before he even made much of a dent in the majors, traded to the Indians, and then pretty soon after he got there and got to the major league level, he exploded as one of the more consistent starting pitchers in all of baseball twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen. Every year, a five win pitcher, a six win pitcher above replacement level, even topping out at seven point two wins above a placement level. Just a joy to watch him during those handful of years. And on Wednesday, he held a throwing session in West Palm Beach. The finer details coming from Jeff Passon of ESPN that nearly twenty five teams showed up to see Kluber at his showcase fastball averaging sitting eighty eight to ninety miles per hour with an expectation that he wasn't going one hundred percent. There was an understanding that he was still progressing to get to full on throwing baseball shape, as most pitchers do as we get closer. Just fring training, thirty total pitches and he threw both his fastballs and his off speed stuff. Compared to where he was in twenty eighteen, that last full season as an ACE level pitcher, Klueber's stock is significantly down and the Marlins have something to do with that. Unintentionally, of course. When the Indians were at Marlins Park about a month into the twenty nineteenth season, Brian Anderson are beloved. Brian Anderson at the Blake hit a scorching line drive comebacker that went right at Klueber during that start that day, and Kluber had to exit early clutching at his elbow and it turned out that he fractured his elbow. Oh my goodness, it nailed Klueber. Oh my goodness, it got him on the pitching arm, and that is not good. He could not get out of the way, that's for sure. It sidelined him for a couple months. On his way rehabbing from that injury, he suffered a separate, unrelated core injury, I think an oblique injury and never made it back for the Indians down the stretch of that twenty nineteen season. Got traded over the off season heading into twenty twenty, a move that was relatively unpopular. It seems even then that the Indians were selling low on Cluber didn't get a blue chip prospect in return. As it turns out, the Rangers only got one start, one abbreviated start out a Clooper, before he suffered another injury to a muscle right near his throwing shoulder. No structural damage to the shoulder itself, but a muscle right around there. And during the shortened season he didn't have the opportunity to come back from that either. Over the last two seasons, combined just limited to what is this eight total starts from this guy, and combined that with his age, the fact that he'll soon be turning thirty five years old, there's a reason why he is available at this stage of the offseason and a reason why the Marlins were in attendance. So, as I mentioned, a few minutes ago. This workout was happening literally down the street from the Marlins facility. They had no excuse for missing out on this, and the fact that they showed up it does not necessarily reflect that they have any serious interest in Kluber. They just had the good practice to show up and do their due diligence, as almost every team in the majors did. Joel Sherman of The New York Post has been on top of Kluber's progression to get to this point the last week or so. From his angle of course, being in New York, he is looking at it from the Yankees potential interest and the Mets potential interest. I'd say, and there's a good reason I believe those are more likely destinations for Kluber than the Marlins are. And I mean, what Joel pointed out is for someone at this stage of his career will be entering his age thirty five season, that and this is quoting Sherman, usually a mid thirties broken toy pitcher stays that way when players have a significant hiatus the way that he has had, or just generally being very limited in time. I should mention that over those eight starts that he made the last two years. The bottom line results are not Kluber like. He was about half a win above replacement level pro rated over a full year. He was pitching like a league average pitcher during that small sample in twenty nineteen and twenty twenty, So that's notable. It's a small sample. But if you have no other data on him over the last two and a half years, then that needs to weigh into the situation, and that explains why he is the kind of guy that conceivably could fall within the Marlins price range. But I mean back to Joel Sherman. He points out a couple exceptions to the norm, guys in this late age of their career that have revived their careers and sustained a high level of performance for a significant amount of time after that. John Smoltz in the Hall of Famer, he had Tommy John surgery into his thirties, came back as a reliever dominant rely, and then later into his thirties he was back in the rotation again for the Braves. There's also the case of Bartolo Cologne, the ageless Bartolo Cologne. Now as we're recording this, in his late forties and still not technically retired from baseball, But in his late thirties he had that ped suspension for a typis steroid and he missed big time of that serving his suspension. Yet he came back from that with the Oakland A's and he was one of the best pitchers in their rotation for several years. Came to the National League East with the Mets, and he was good enough with the Mets that he was starting games in the postseason for them. I believe he also appeared in that twenty fifteen World Series, by which went he was already forty two years old, so he had a lot of longevity afterwards, and I remember his velocity also was astoundingly good for that age, still sitting in the mid nineties. To me, though, the example the exception to the norm, the optimistic outcome for Kluber at this time point would probably look something like Chris Carpenter. You may remember Chris Carpenter from the Cardinals. I mean he won a Cy Young Award in the early two thousands. Somewhat of a similar career trajectory with Clubber in terms of how late he emerged as a star pitcher. He had a handful of years early on with the Blue Jays where didn't do much of anything, and it wasn't until he winded up with the Cardinals that he emerged as the best version of himself, a credible endings eater for about a two or three year span, and then in two thousand and seven it was he underwent Tommy John surgery and at that point he was I believe thirty three, thirty four years old. That's a more serious setback than the shoulder at the elbow and shoulder muscle injuries that Kluber has, but it did its part in sidetracking him for the better part of two years in two and seven, two thousand and eight, and yet he came back from that with the Cardinals and he had another three four really great years after that in the rotation as one of the league leaders in ennings pitched. And that's what really appeals to me about Kluber is the track record he has had a as a work course, because that's the main concern that I have with these Marlins pitchers. You have Sandy Alcontra to this point in his career. Thankfully, Sandy has been virtually injury free, missed a little time on the injured list with an arm infection in twenty eighteen, but that was more of a fluke injury than anything that you should be worried about. The problem is outside of him, almost every other candidate for a Marlins rotation job, whether it's for opening Day twenty twenty one or as it called, mid season, there are concerns with all of them, at least in their track record when it comes to their health. Pablo Lopez, who has always been my very favorite rotation candidate for the Marlins since he emerged around the same time that Sandy did, coming off a great twenty twenty season, but prior to that, he's said year after year of shoulder issues, and he also has Tommy John very far in his history, but in twenty eighteen and even more severely in twenty nineteen miss time with a shoulder strain. With Jordan Yamamoto that some of you are pretty low on, understandably with Yamamoto coming off what he did in twenty twenty, but he has some intriguing swing and miss stuff, and he's just as young as Pablo and Sandy is a minor league option remaining he could still have a role with this organization moving forward if he's healthy. But just like with Pablo, he's had a couple shoulder injuries in his recent history as well. Six do Sanchez. I mean, the reason why he was available to the Marlins in the first place is because Marlon the Phillies weren't totally sold on his long term durability. He suffered an elbow injury in twenty eighteen that limited his progress through their farm system at that point. Thankfully, the Marlins managed him pretty carefully in twenty nineteen and there was no recurrence of that elbow issue whatsoever. But he is unconventionally small in stature for a starting pitcher, and fair or not, that's always going to play into the calculus and how much you really trust them a year in and year out. Braxton Garrett, Tommy John survivor Jordan Holloway, Tommy John's survivor, Nick Niger in twenty nineteen missed a big chunk of the year with a meniscous injury, so not quite as directly implicated with your pitching ability. That may have been somewhat unlucky on his part. I'm still pretty high on Nider, but that's again, his availability is somewhat in doubt, and Eliezer Hernandez, who I've seen pretty frequently mentioned as trade bait, whether it's for Andrew ben and Tendi or Wilson Contreras. Personally, in my mind, he's pretty essential to what the Marlins are trying to accomplish this coming year if he's healthy, because he was not around for this postseason run with the Marlins or in all of after suffering a lat injury, and by all accounts he is fully recovered from that at this point, with spring training almost around the corner, he seems to be back on track from that. But it's pretty much everybody. Trevor Rodgers is kind of the exception here where Rogers is. He was handled also pretty carefully early in his career coming out of the draft, but as far as I can tell, has never really had that one significant injury that gives you great pause when you're projecting forward to a full season. And that's what we're doing at this point because Major League Baseball sent out a memo to all the teams, all the agents recently declaring their intention of opening spring training camps on time in mid February, starting spring training games in late February and keeping opening day just as it was scheduled to be on April first. If you're going to proceed within one hundred and sixty two game season, you know work in potentially some postponements or cans for COVID related reasons. That if you're going to make it through this whole season, a major league team should proceed with at least a group of ten potential starting pitchers that they trust in their organization. And I named about nine of them just now. And there are a few others you could put in that conversation. Daniel Costano, who I think exceeded just about everybody's expectations with what he did last year, although I'm not sure how sustainable that is. George Guzman, who was held in very high regard not that long ago being acquired from the Yankees, and the Gean Carlos Stanton trade. There are you could if you squinn carefully enough, if you are really on the bright side, then maybe you could see a path for the Marlins doing this all with existing options. But I'm just here to give you a reality check that these guys are not experienced, because not only do most of them have somewhat concerning injury in their recent past, but you just don't have a track record of any of them doing much at all at the major league level, aside from Sandy having a couple of quality seasons under his belt. At this point, you you'll really, I mean I personally, I'll give you my preference with Edward Cabrera. Another name that we should mention that we'll definitely be debuting during twenty twenty one. Edward Cabrera. I'm really high on Nick knighterd as well. I think those guys can step up to the majors and immediately be quality starters. They could be, They have the potential to be. That doesn't mean they will be. With these type of players, most of them, evaluators will tell you they have a future grade somewhere between forty five fifty and fifty five, right around a league average quality starting pitcher. All of them have the potential to be really solid starters at the very least back end starting pitchers, But that's almost the best case scenario. Even if they do stay healthy, and even if they do reach their potential, there's no saying that they're going to reach their potential in their rookie year or in their first full year, even if they had debuted in twenty twenty, all of them are on different timelines, bringing us right back to Corey Klueber, who did not settle in as an elite starting pitcher until he was twenty eight years old. That's pretty far along, just to put that in perspective. When he was twenty eight he emerged. There's nobody in the Marlins organization who will even be who's a rotation candidate. Legitimately that will even be twenty seven on opening day. Daniel Castano is the oldest of the bunch, and if you take him and put him on the back burner as triple A depth, then the graybeard of their projected rotation is Eliez or Hernandez, who is not even twenty six. So these guys are all on their different schedules. The Marlins have invested a lot of energy and time into putting together the best possible player development operation. We've seen some very positive signs from the way these pitchers have progressed through the miners, the way that they stepped up coming out at the alternate training site during the twenty twenty season. There are some good things happening here, but that doesn't guarantee that these guys will be totally ready to be the best version of themselves immediately. There may need to be some adjustments when you're approaching this twenty twenty one season. There's a case to be made that coming off of the pandemic, with all the lost opportunities to make revenue for the team, the fact that the Marlins, through some very poor timing, were sattled with the entire salary of wig in Chin, all twenty two million dollars instead of having it pro rated. The organization probably lost money this past season, and as of this recording, their TV deal is still in limbo, their local television deal, which is something we circled as soon as the team changed ownership three plus years ago, that renegotiating that deal long term was going to be so critical to this organization actually spending like a mid market team instead of one of the smallest in the league, and they the reality is they've steadily reduced their payroll each year under new ownership, and they're poised to do that again, at least compared to what the full season's worth of revenue, full seasons and worth of payroll would have been in twenty twenty that currently they're on track to spend less than sixty million dollars on payroll entering the new season, and if they stand pat with what they are right now, it's a roll of the dice that they are internal options that a good chunk of these prospects, many who we saw at the major league level for the first time last year, others that are right on the cusp of the debuting in twenty twenty one, and even some that have been are in that post prospect by low situation, Isan Diez, Lewis Brinson, guys that we've seen some discouraging things from a major league gumbo but still have incredible pedigree and skill. It's not insane to bank on the fact that those guys will reach it a new level after that's some combination, they'll find the right players to step up in those situations at second base, between Isan and Jazz Chisholm in right field, between Brinson and Monte Harrison, and Harold Ramirez and Jyesus Sanchez at catchers. If Jorge Alfaro bounces back from a pretty much lost year, that this could be a cheap team and still be a very competitive team, but there's no reason for them to stamp pat given the limited commitments they have and understanding the fan based mindset that we had so much fun during the twenty twenty season, and it doesn't seem like you're upholding your commitment to the fans if you're not actively seeking ways to improve the team, to plug holes, to do so efficiently at a time where spring training is around the corner and they're still well over one hundred major league free agents, a lot of decent free agents, some star level free agents still out there. That with all those guys out there, as those dates approach, you got to think that they'll be attainable on relatively affordable deals. Corey Klueber being one example. Based on the best estimates from ESPN and also from Joel Sherman of The New York Post, they think his market is going to be a guaranteed deal around the five million dollar range five million, six million dollars guaranteed, with a bunch of incentives on top of that that give him the opportunity to perhaps even triple that salary upwards of fifteen million to eighteen million something like that, where if he has the season that we've historically seen from him, where he makes thirty two starts, where he keeps his ra around three, and where he strikes out two hundred, two hundred and twenty five hitters. That that would give him a opportunity to make a bunch of money for himself, the kind of salary that he's accustomed to having under his previous contract. And would the Marlins make that type of offer to him. I don't think so. Maybe that guarantee is reasonable for them, although I don't think they would hop on quite as many incentives and potentially put themselves in a position where they're paying so much for him. But I think the fit is absolutely there, given how durable he was before these couple fluky injuries, and despite his age. He is a guy that you could get on a one year deal, which is not something that could be said for all the available free agent starters at this time. One name that I circled at the beginning of the off season was Jake Odorizzi, who, somewhat like Klueber, was kind of sidetracked in his career by a fluky injury in twenty twenty. He absolutely would have pitched in twenty twenty some more if it was a full length season, but he was limited to three or four poor starts due to a stints on the IL. As things have progressed, and if you've seen some of these other deals that starting pitchers are getting in free agency, they're doing pretty well for themselves. It's kind of surprising. Guys Charlie Morden, for example, let go by the Rays and ends up signing for a whole lot more money than the Rays would have owed him under his club option, the way that Drew Smiley also got paid by the Braves, even though Smiley had a very limited track record of actually being a steady, reliable starter. And oh Mike Minor going to the Kansas City for a big two year deal despite also being very deep into his thirties. That someone like oda Rizzi I think is going to be a multi year guarantee, as will of course Trevor Bauer being out there, probably Taiwan Walker multi year deal for him as well. And for the Marlins, I think the best fit is having someone on a one year deal. I think it's reasonable for them to prioritize short term help and put their faith in some of these pitchers that are coming up through the system. If you're dreaming of a future where the Marlins can build their whole rotation, most of their entire pitching staff out of just homegrown arms, that future could be here as soon as twenty twenty two, but it's not here right now. If the team actually has any aspirations of being competitive, if they want people to believe that they're trying at the major league level, they still need to do more. It goes without saying they needed to do more offensively, whether it's a catcher or in right field or just a general power left handed bat, that there are a variety of things they can do on the offensive side to give themselves a better chance. And of course, probably the most obvious glaring need they have right now is in the back end of their bullpen. After not resigning Brandon Kinzler, who remains out there in free agency, and the understandable interest they may want to look for different type of reliever in that role. They have other areas to address. Starring picture is not at the top of the list. I'm not saying that it should be the highest priority, but I think it should be addressed in some way before we get to the start of the season, and one other way just per sent what I've been hammering home the last what twenty twenty five minutes is if you look at their rotation last year, I mean there were unusual circumstances of course last year with the COVID outbreak, but some of the pictures who made starts for them in twenty twenty Caleb Smith, who's since been traded to the Diamondbacks. I'm virtual Mahea who has traded along with him. Josh A Smith made a start and he has since signed to play in Korea. Jose Ouurina has since moved on to the Tigers. And there was one more I thought I saw, yeah, and Robert Duggar. Robert Dugger made a start as well in several longer relief appearances, but he's since been cleaned off waivers by the Mariners. Overall, that is eleven starts from the sixty game season. I love how that number lines up. Eleven out of sixty. It is pretty close to once every five days. Those are the number of pitchers that starts for them last season that are no longer in the organization, and that leaves to me avoid avoid for them to fill because over the course of a full season. There are those injury concerns I mentioned, There are those inexperienced concerns that can manifest themselves in poor performance. There could be some of these prospects that we are so high on that simply things don't click for them immediately and they need to be sent back down that over the course of a season, you're gonna need a lot of decent starting pitchers. Marlins are in an a fortunate place where all of their internal options are under long term control and they're all extremely cheap for this upcoming season. None of them are even arbitration eligible yet among these starting pitching options, So despite the uncertainty with their local television deal, it's going to be there relatively soon. I'm not looking for them to make anything, to do anything risky that has long term implications in this department, but there should be room to do something for twenty twenty one. There are a bunch of options out there, aside from Kluber, just other names that I think could be attainable on a one year deal. Jose Kintana, Alex Wood, Geo Gonzalez, who's a Miami native, and Ani bal Sanchez, an old friend who we've seen in this division the last few years. He's coming off a down year as well. I'm compared to them, though, I'd say Cluber, which is clearly the one that has more upside of the bunch. He is also the oldest one of the bunch. And just going back to the insider Joel Sherman from the New York Post, he seems not directly reporting it, but he seems pretty convinced that the Mets would be a great fit for Corey Kluber. We've seen what the Mets have done this offseason, most recently the blockbuster to acquire both Carlos Carrasco and Francisco Lindor from the Indians that even though they finished behind the Marlins in the standings last year, it's going to be hard to dispute that they're the superior team right now. And if not them, I could see the Phillies going in in this department. The Phillies have been awfully quiet this offseason, and I don't think they're content with continuing to be an embarrassment relative to expectations that they'll do something on the back end of their rotation. And honestly, just about any team except for the Braves. The Braves seem more or less set with their rotation for the twenty twenty one season, but if going with Kluber prevents him from haunting you within the division, understanding that, as the schedule is originally said, about half their games come inside the NL East, but I think we should also consider the possibility that as things get closer, depending on where we are with COVID, that Major League Baseball may opt to adjust the schedule and make it very regional in the same way that the twenty twenty season was. Remember last year, the Marlins played two thirds of their games within the division in the NL East for that reason, and I don't think we can totally rule that out. Again, just understanding the kind of elevated risk in terms of transmitting the virus that happens when you're doing travel, so adjustments could be made in the schedule where you travel less and you play some familiar faces a lot more. In the same way that the Marlins got extremely rough luck. They faced Jacob de Gram in four consecutive starts during the middle of the year, and surprisingly one I think one or two of those games against the Gram. But they may not get so lucky with Kober, and imagine the scenario if they're both teammates next year, leading the Mets rotation to try to vault themselves to the top of the division for the first time in a long time. I just want to see them do something in this rotation department for all the reasons just mentioned, and just one final thing about the intangibles that veterans starting pitchers can bring. I think a lot of us got frustrated at times with what jos Ourania did as Marlin. Glimpses of being the kind of great picture you think he could be, but never really sustaining it for big portions of time, never putting it all together, and finishing his Marlin's tenure on a very unfortunate note, eerily similar to Corey Klueber's injury with a line drive comebacker right at the mound that fractured his arm made him unavailable for the postseason. But with that being said, he's a guy that you ask just about any of these young starting pictures in the Marlins rotation right now contending for jobs in the near future. They looked up to him, They really respected him. Arana wasn't all that much older than them, but when they arrived to the Marlins, most of them via trade, that arena was already here. He was already in the rotation. He already knew about Miami, and he was someone that came from very humble roots. That he was not a highly regarded prospect at all early in his professional career, and he worked himself into being even if it wasn't the very best version of himself. That he was a starting pitcher in this league for several years and one of the only familiar faces in this rotation both before and after the ownership change. They respected him in that same category Dan Strayley, who is pitching Korea last year in his back resigning with that team for twenty twenty one, that Dan Strayley, even you put knocks on him for having trouble keeping balls in the ballpark and maybe the Marlins give up too much in the trade to acquire him from Cincinnati a few years back. He was the same way in terms of how he went out of his way to help you pictures, to help them develop best practices, to answer any of the questions that they had, from the very important ones to just the basics about how to go about a routine and how to make adjustments darning a game, what type of data to look at to be the best version of yourselves, how to interpret your performance. That these are the intangibles that veteran pictures can bring. As sexy as it is to envision a homegrown, young rotation like the Marlins could potentially have, that veteran presence is still so critical to bring in and to me, the Marblins are really fortunate that we're in this offseason that is moving so slowly and way more supply than there is demand of these type of guys that they can get really impactful on and off the field, starting picture on a relatively cheap one year deal. I'm not optimistic that it's going to be Kluber. I think attending his workout as much as anything, was doing their due diligence and of course aided by the convenience of being where he was situated right around the corner from their facility. So I wouldn't get your hopes up about that. But this is once again another plea for them. Whether maybe there's a creative trade out there that I'm overlooking, but most likely via free agency, that Marlins makes some sort of one year commitment to bring in veteran presence to make sure that they're highly coveted young starting pitchers so have a world of potential that being around a veteran picture who has been there and done that before could make so much of a difference in how they perform during twenty twenty one, but also the kind of trajectory that they're on for the rest of the decade and put them in position to reach their full potential by having the good influences around them. Thanks for listening, guys. If you want more coverage on Andrew Benin Tendee on Wilson Contreras, we have full articles with trade proposals on them upon fishtripes dot com. I handled the Ben and Tendie one. The Wilson Contreras article that's from Ethan Podowski. We will have a pretty massive presence on our Fishtripes platform throughout the spring and into the summer, so I'm very excited for Ethan's involvement in our content, as well more than a dozen other contributors that will be on Fish Stripes, on the podcast and on the website this upcoming season. There's still some big plans to get sorted out once we get a little more certainty about what the season is going to look like and exactly what kind of team the Marlins have put together for the season. So I made a plea for the Marlins to do more. But I also want to calm everybody down, anybody that is panicking about the Marlins not doing anything, that there are still so many options out there in the way that the market is moving so slowly that I'm still optimistic that we'll have something new to talk about relatively soon. Next episode of the Officials show, we will have a special guest that is MLB dot com Marlins Beat reporter brand new to that full time position, Christina de Nicola. So if you have any specific questions for her, just let me know on social media or on the website so that we can ask that to her. That should be a fun episode that you'll find on the same feed wherever you listen to your podcasts. Please subscribe, rate, and review on Apple Podcasts. That'd be much appreciated as well. And anything else you want me to talk about in the near future about the way that this Marlin seems coming together, you know how to contact me with those suggestions for Eli Susman and all the fish stripes. Thank you for listening. Go fish The p
