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Speaker 1: Hey, this is Kyle Stowers, and you're listening to Fish On First.
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Speaker 2: Fish On First Welcome back.
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Speaker 3: Fish on First live presented by Jet Ski Rentals of South Florida here on the Fish on First podcast channel, part of the Fowl Territory Network.
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Speaker 2: This is a throwback.
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Speaker 3: This is kind of the format we were using for the streams for most of the previous, I want to say four, if not five years. We're having them counting down essentially to the first pitch of a new Marlins series, just given the logistics, how late the Marlins ended up their series against the Royals last night on Thursday night. We were instead leading this directly into Wednesday, the most consequential homestand of the Marlins season. I would say the most consequential homestand for them in three years since mid-September of 2023. The first of three separate opponents they're hosting at the Lone Dome, beginning with the Chicago Cubs. I'm Eli Sussman, the founder of FOF, with Alex Krawczyk and with Sean Millerick by my side as well. Let's bring you down to where we're at with this Marlins team at a crucial juncture of the season. where they stand in the wildcard race, some recent news, touching on a lot of little topics here with you guys, and of course, given our predictions heading into this Cubs series for these next three games. Before getting into the recent games themselves, I do want to kind of amend something that was discussed on the previous FOF pod episode. The topic of Leo Jimenez came up yet again. He's been a divisive topic for this Marlins team this season, and my conclusion was that he would be sticking around in some capacity moving forward, despite people's frustrations. And lo and behold, I couldn't have been more wrong. Almost immediately after we published that episode, Leo designated for assignment, this guy that has been a surprising parts of this Marlins team, uh, from basically the start of the season, but not, you know, not surprising in terms of performance, but just surprising in terms of his longevity, despite a lack of production, we got into the numbers of data on the previous episode, but, I'll start with you, Crutchick, on the fact that they DFA him in some sense and makes room for Davis and De Los Santos. And not like any particular make or break moment for him that seemed to have resulted in this. He's kind of been the same guy for the previous five months, but just your reaction to the timing of it, that they make it the vast majority of the season with him as this default guy against all left-handed pitching.
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Speaker 2: And then finally they... Yeah.
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Speaker 3: Why do you think they finally cut the cord now with less than a month ago in this season?
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Speaker 4: It's a good question as to why they decided to cut the cord now, because I was actually going to say one of the most frustrating things about Leo Jimenez and probably the reason that they didn't call anyone up to begin with is because there wasn't really anyone in the minors that was pushing to take that job. Um, even Davidson de los Santos, which we'll get into him later on. I'm not super disappointed in how he played in the minors this year, but it wasn't exactly like Joe Mack at catcher where it's like, we got to bring this guy up. Um, it's curious why they chose now, because like I said, the reason that they didn't bring them up in the first place is because no one was really, uh, forcing their hands to bring anyone up in the first place, and that continued to be such. I don't think Davison De Los Santos, while he has improved a little bit this year over last, he wasn't doing any better recently than he was earlier in the year.
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Speaker 5: And so, yeah, it's a good question.
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Speaker 4: I don't know why now. As for why they didn't do it earlier, I mean, he was not good. The cool thing about modern baseball is that all of these underlying stats that organizations look at, where in the past maybe organizations will see something that we don't see, a lot of the things that they see are things that we see. These organizations love stuff like K-rate, walk rate, WRC +. You can find that publicly, which means that you can publicly see that He's fine with the K rate. He's right in the middle in terms of his K rate, same as his walk rate. I will say the only thing that I could find when it comes to underlying stats is he doesn't really chase a lot. But other than that, he's not really good. He doesn't barrel up the ball. He doesn't hit the ball hard. He can't slug. Fielding-wise, he can't really field. And for an organization that really prides itself on... fielding and fielding versatility, he doesn't really have that. So it was, they gave him a lot of chances and it just never happened. Additionally, we kind of had the same conversation about like Chris Paddock earlier in the year. Your underlying numbers can be fine, but unless they really, really stand out, eventually you do have to actually produce.
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Speaker 5: I don't care how good the underlying stats are.
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Speaker 4: Once you've, he had 194 plate appearances here. At some point you would think that, that it would show up on the field instead of just in a, in a baseball.
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Speaker 5: Savant's that cast.
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Speaker 6: Yeah.
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Speaker 3: You did kind of touch on something important there that early on about the lack of alternatives within the organization that would definitely be better because I did mention that Davison was the direct corresponding move. It's, More one-to-one, I would say that it's Jared Cerna that kind of fills his spot as well. Another right-handed hitting infielder who just wasn't hitting very well, even at the AAA level this year. They acquired him in the Jazz System Junior Trade. He made his first career start in Kansas City. And yeah, he's a guy that I used to like as a prospect a couple of years ago when they made the move in the first place. But somebody who, frankly, you can't necessarily say with a whole lot of confidence that he's going to be better than Jimenez is. Maybe slightly better as a base runner, a little bit more defensive versatility. Anything else, Sean, that you want to touch on with Jimenez as he goes through the waiver process? He's not officially gone from the organization yet. We'll find out perhaps by this time on Saturday whether he was claimed or not. By the way, he squeezed off the 40-man and is seemingly done in terms of contributing at the big league level this season.
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Speaker 6: I think you guys hit on all of it. I mean, I too was surprised. I think I speculated on the other– the day that this news came out that Serna would be moving back off the roster. We saw that De Los Santos might be coming up just because they had made it this long with Jimenez. The only thing I might add is that for them waiting this long, maybe they're thinking that since it is after September 1st and no team that is adding him would be, and I'll try to say this with a straight face, be able to have him on the roster for the postseason. So since he might make it through at this point, then they could sneak him back into and keep him in the organization.
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Speaker 1: Since it's clear they do.
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Speaker 6: Have a fund that's for him. But other than that, after nearly 200 plate appearances, as we said, we needed to move on and get a good look at De Los Santos before heading into next season, whenever that will be.
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Speaker 5: Yeah.
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Speaker 3: We'll get some of a look at Taylor Santos.
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Speaker 2: A good look.
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Speaker 3: It will depend a bit on a couple of factors. He's in the starting lineup tonight against a lefty for this first game of this cup series. We expect him to be in the lineup against practically all lefties down the stretch.
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Speaker 2: So that is something.
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Speaker 3: And then as we'll touch on later, a bit of an injury scare with Kyle Stowers, but it does appear from the early indications that it is generally just a day-to-day injury with him. Whereas, so he should be the one that is their primary first base when these final few weeks of the year, definitely whenever they're facing a right-handed pitcher. Let us quickly get into this most recent series against the Royals. A series I had a little bit of difficulty assessing heading into it just because the Royals had quietly been about as hot as any team in baseball the previous couple of weeks prior to the series. They'd won 11 out of their previous 13 games. Their offense had really turned it on. And they've just been playing very good all-around baseball for a team that has the last place team in the AL central out of it for all intents and purposes, but you just don't know how intimidating an opponent is going to be just based on their overall numbers. Sometimes you actually need to look at the recent performance in this case, the Marlins do take care of business by winning two out of three, even had a lead in that final game, but ultimately lose that Sandy series finale. So we'll actually go in this time, traditional chronological order starting with that, that first game, Yeah, six to three win where that was even more comfortable than the final score would indicate. I believe they led six to nothing before a couple runs late made it on paper look a little bit more competitive than it actually was. Home runs by Grand Pauly. That's the Grand Pauly game. Grand Pauly made his return. Speaking of another guy that was recently brought up to the big league level in a part time role that the Marlins need to evaluate down the stretch, Grand Pauly. has that really big performance, a triple and a homer in that game. So we'll stop right there for a moment, Krawczyk, on Pauly, because I know that you've been an advocate for him in the past. This has been a mostly lost season for him. A lot of frequent flatter miles up to Jacksonville and down to Miami, Jacksonville to Miami, Jacksonville to Miami, Jacksonville to Miami. And I'm not saying that for a fact. Like, literally, he's made that many call-ups and sent-downs this season. This is his sixth separate stint on the big league roster. Yeah, so Paulie, we had entering this year, he was the guy that people had circled as the likely primary third baseman for this team. We thought he'd be a mainstay. on the roster and potentially somebody that would be in the lineup most of the games this entire year, but the bat just hasn't been there. So we don't want to overreact to just that one performance. It's still, it is something, right? That a guy that needed to, we've seen glimpses of it in 2025 about him developing into what could be a really nice all-around hitter in addition to the good defense at third base.
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Speaker 2: And he just, in.
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Speaker 3: This very small sample down the stretch, he did everything in his power, at least for that first start, to give some hope that there's still a player, a useful player that the Marlins can salvage here.
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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's been a super weird.
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Speaker 4: couple years for him because I remember the scouting report on him was always.
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Speaker 5: He's a fine hitter.
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Speaker 4: He'll hit for a little bit of power, 15 to 20 home runs, but he's terrible at defense.
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Speaker 5: And it seems to be quite the opposite. I really like him at third base.
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Speaker 4: He hasn't been as good at third base this year as it was last year, but I still believe in him there. Uh, this year he's, he hasn't really found his groove offensively until this week. I thought it was a great game from him. Um, I can't put my finger on like why he's been, um, so disappointing at the plate i mean i'll look at his numbers and like hitting the fastball and the breaking ball he's actually not bad at all um well i'll say not bad at all he's not struggling he's not uh excelling there either but the common denominator for the last couple years is the off-speed stuff like the off-speed stuff is the worst for him and it's not a coincidence that i think the the triple that he hit on tuesday night i it was a sinker so the fastball um i don't know that's all i can find when i when i look at his stuff because when i watch his at bats they're not obviously bad at bats you know like you'll see some guys where you can see with your naked eye that this is a bad at bat he doesn't really do that it's just you know he's he's not he's not whiffing a whole lot he just can't really seem to hit as as strongly as we thought.
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Speaker 3: That he was going to no yeah even even so he's someone last year that I was more just concerned about the power aspect from him. I didn't think that was real. That was something he showed a little bit at AAA. And to this point, it hasn't translated into his big league career. It is the more surprising part that I just thought he had a semi-decent floor getting on base. And for him to be this deep into the season, even with that performance, a 230 OBP this season. I mean, even Leo Jimenez would scoff at that. That was a huge struggle.
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Speaker 4: Last year, one thing that he did really well was he was near the top of the league. I mean, he wasn't a qualified hitter, but if he was a qualified hitter, he was near the top of the league in walk rate, and he was pretty middle of the road when it came to K rate. Now, still middle of the road in K rate, but terrible at drawing walks.
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Speaker 5: His walk rate is, let me see.
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Speaker 4: It's 4% compared to 11% last year.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, right, exactly.
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Speaker 3: A couple other things from the series to get to. In the latter two games, both of them, Herberto Hernandez hits home runs. In that middle game, Yuri Perez gets off to as bad an opening ending as you could ever have a nightmare about. I think he allowed four runs before getting a single out in that one. There have been a couple of times in Yuri's career where he has been just knocked out of the game immediately like that. And that felt like another repeat of that script got barreled up three separate times, a couple of home runs in there. And he's able to navigate it. He almost get through five in that game. And the Marlins are able to rally for nine runs to, to put that one away. So they had, again, I mentioned Hernandez, a Homer in that one, a snow, I had a home run as well. Jacob Marcy, I think at the very end of that one, a Homer too, I guess we could stop on a few different guys, Sean, but I did want to just check in on Araberto as we get this deep into the season and his, I mean, that, that power that he has is still chugging along. He's, 23 home runs for this guy that, as we've reiterated again and again, wasn't even on this big league roster during a brief portion early in the season. He got understandably demoted, wasn't paying for power at all early on. Almost all those homers have come since the middle of May, and he now pretty much has a commanding lead for the team in homers this season. It's the kind of power-hitting season that they haven't had from a right-handed hitter since Jorge Soler. And the fact that a guy that they picked up as a minor league free agent is going to have somewhat of a comparable season to the one that Soler had in his final Marlins year as their big established veteran bat from that side. What do you just think about the year that he's had to this point and the way that he's settled in and become a true everyday player too? A guy that I think, best case scenario, we thought he'd be a great platoon corner outfielder, but instead he's been in the lineup almost every.
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Speaker 2: Day these last few months and he's taken advantage of it.
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Speaker 6: Yeah, it's really been remarkable. And just, you know, the perspective for the Sherman era for a power hitter from any side of the plate. I mean, it's a really short list of guys. He's, um, so, you know, we're 23. He's, um, I think it's just three hitters in the Sherman era that are ahead of him. I've got, you know, Solaire at 36, Berger at 29, and Stowers last year at 25. Seems definitely safe to clear Stowers.
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Speaker 1: And, um, Berger, maybe.
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Speaker 6: At the pace that he's on, it could just be Soler he's looking up at by the time the season wraps. I certainly didn't have that on my Marlins 26 bingo card when things started. It's another feather in Bendix's cap for finding a guy out of nowhere, turning him into a starter. It's really been fun to watch.
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Speaker 3: Thank you to people in the live chat following along here. This is one comment from Beefcat that I found I think it articulates it pretty well about how there has been an inconsistency in terms of which of these fringe roster, youngish guys actually get an opportunity to prove themselves in which don't. Jimenez, the contrast between like Jimenez and Davison is a perfect example of that.
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Speaker 2: Like Davison has, you see.
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Speaker 3: Midway through deep into his third year at the AAA level. And he has obvious upside in ways that Jimenez doesn't. And yet Jimenez was on this roster effectively the entire season and Davison is is tonight going to be playing in maybe his fifth game, fifth or sixth game total at the big league level this year, despite having very little left to prove at that level. And the other part of that is just how some of these guys are Bendix guys. Like Davidson was a Bendix guy acquired in 2024 in a trade at the deadline that was picked up by this current regime. And yet somebody that gets much shorter leash than other players in a very similar position. So that is a good note on that. Quite a bit more for us to get to on the other side of the breaks. Final thoughts on that series and just looking ahead at this crucial time of year where the Marlins stand. We don't really need to dress up more than that. All these games are super important and they have a very intimidating opponent on deck this weekend in the Cubs. So first, we'll take a break here from our friends at Seat Geek and we'll talk to you on the other side.
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00:17:33
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Speaker 3: Welcome back here on FOF Live. Eli, Sean Millerick, Alex Kruchik with you. Counting down to the start of this crucial Cubs series and a look at the wildcard standings as things currently sit with 21 games remaining. The Marlins only three games out behind the D-backs, two and a half chasing the Padres as well. And a game cushion on the Cardinals. Apparently the Pirates aren't dead yet. I would kind of ridden them off, but they've won about four of their last five or so to hang back in the periphery again enough so that I have to show them on this overview right there. So still teams both in front and behind, but realistically it's going to be about the Marlins playing what they have to play. Like one of the best teams in the league in order to win out over the rest of this group. That's ultimately what's, what it's going to take winning the vast majority of their series down the stretch. They're not going to catch the Cubs, but there are the Cubs eight games between these two teams in the standings that separate them. And they're going to be playing six of them head to head. So it is like if the Marlins were to dominate that head-to-head matchup, then they could close most of the gap. But realistically, this is a Cubs team that, despite not playing especially well lately, is a very intimidating group right there. But yeah, Crutch, just checking on the overall state of this race for the third wild card for all intents and purposes with the D-backs and the Padres right ahead of them.
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Speaker 2: I think there was.
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Speaker 3: probably a moment, not that long ago, I guess you could say maybe just a week ago or felt like this was slipping away from the Marlins. But, uh, and from, from a certain standpoint, it's actually shaping up.
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Speaker 2: Quite a bit.
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Speaker 3: Like it was last year in the wild card race where that, that team, that Marlins team in 2025 was not playoff ready, but yet they kind of hung around in the mix until the final week of the year, just because none of these other teams are really running away from it. In this three wildcard era, sometimes it's that third wildcard. There isn't a team. There isn't a legitimately good team that is able to fill that spot. And that's how you just get a wide variety of clubs that remain within striking distance, even this late into the year.
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Speaker 4: Body of work for the Marlins is such that I think that their overall of 500 team, um, I think they're going to play 500 for the remainder of the year with the exception of, I think they've also shown.
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Speaker 5: That they can be extremely streaky.
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Speaker 4: And so I think there's going to be a week this month where they go one in five or five and one. And I think whichever swing they take will determine if they make the playoffs. Um, I do think they have one more streak left in them. Again, if that's a losing streak or a winning streak, that'll determine everything. The good thing is they're in one of these weird spots where they sort of control their own destiny because even though they are not They don't have a hold of any wildcard spots. They're within striking distance of two teams that are directly in front of them, which means there will be an opportunity for them to directly affect the teams that are in front of them instead of hoping that you win and that the other teams lose. They'll play three games against the Diamond on the same road.
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Speaker 5: Trip, actually.
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Speaker 4: It'll probably be the most important road trip the Marlins have taken in the Bruce Sherman era. You'll play the Diamondbacks for three games later in the month and then the Padres three games after that. Um, so yeah, if they can stay within a game or two at that point, um, you know, they've, they've done well for themselves and they've done a good job of putting themselves.
00:21:29
Speaker 5: In a good position.
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Speaker 3: Here's a closer look at these upcoming games before we get to that road trip itself. This is a, that homestand that they're facing right now, three against the Cubs and three against the Mets. And it's going to be an off day in between before three against the two time defending world series champion Dodgers, uh, Sean, this team's been playing really well at home all year long. 15 games over 500 at home.
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Speaker 2: And so you could do the math.
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Speaker 3: There are almost that many games below 500 on the road to remain in this situation. And I kind of dug into the numbers and I was surprised by what I saw where offensively they are the exact same team. No matter where they are, it's the pitching that has been borderline elite when they're at home for whatever variety of reasons.
00:22:13
Speaker 2: I don't know. Is that something you noticed?
00:22:15
Speaker 3: Is that something that this deep into the year we're going to put any stock into to have an extra layer of confidence when the Marlins are at home just because they've performed that well? I mean, there have been times, I think in most cases, where there feels like there's some randomness to it. But when we're five plus months into the season and there are these two alternate identities, at least from the pitching staff, home and road, I guess you got to put some stock into it, right? And have some, even though the fact that this weekend and then this following weekend, they're going to be significant underdogs against those teams that are coming to town. There's this long track record of really awesome performance overall from the team and some good memories at Lone Depot this season.
00:22:57
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I think it's certainly fair to call five months a sample size with her. So, you know, you got to take this a little seriously. It is upsetting that these are, you know, two of the best offenses in baseball. The Cubs are the best-based team in offense in baseball.
00:23:13
Speaker 5: I believe.
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Speaker 6: And, you know, we'll get to that. And we're not going to have Sandy or Uri for that series. And I think we'll just have one of them going against the Dodgers, have it shakes out. So that sucks some of the fun out of the sales of those pitching stats. But, yeah, I think they've played competitive baseball season-long. I think there'll be plenty of tightly contested games on this homestand.
00:23:36
Speaker 1: But it's... It's going to.
00:23:38
Speaker 6: Be the offense that's going to have to pick it up and add another level to compete with these two teams and the Mets.
00:23:46
Speaker 3: And the Mets, who have been a solid team for an extended stretch of the season, even since essentially waving the white flag on their own competitive aspirations. You might say, looking at this homestand, it's unfortunate the way that the rotation lines up. That's only going to be one sandy start over these next nine games just because he unless they fiddle with the rotation, that's something else to look out for this stage of the year where they have an off day coming up in the middle of the homestand. Do they actually bring him? Do they skip somebody in the rotation in order to have an extra Sandy start.
00:24:16
Speaker 2: At in Miami?
00:24:17
Speaker 3: Like they haven't done that all year. That's something that I think generally speaking, we've seen the small team be relatively cautious with workload usage, even for the most veteran players, but that there is an opportunity to squeeze him in at the very end of that Dodger series as well. For this Cubs series, no Sandy, no Uri, and they will be facing some question marks on the Cubs side as well. The Cubs rotation has been a bit of a mess too. This is an interesting time. This is the first time that the Marlins have played the Cubs this year to check in on what was the more notable trades of last offseason. Edward Cabrera for Owen Casey and a couple other prospects. This deep into the year, the Cubs are doing well. I'd say they're pretty close to meeting expectations as they're cruising into the playoffs, even if they're not going to win their division. And Cabrera hasn't been a part of that much at all. He was a guy that was impressive in spring training. I remember, I remember seeing some spring training outings and hearing optimism about how they were going to elevate his game to the next level. His performance early on was all right, but he's been as Cabrera's history has always been. He finds creative ways to wind up on the IL most recently with a blister issue. It, Crutchick, if you could try to put yourself in the mind state that you were back in January when they made that trade and the way that it has played out since, kind of on both sides, it's Cabrera at this stage of the year. The Cubs are winning almost in spite of him, getting very little out of him, an ERA in the fives. Just to remind people, this is a guy that had his best year of his career last year. He was their arguably the most important pitcher over the course of, of last season between being available and suddenly throwing strikes. But now I get, it does seem that the Marlins sold high on him at the right time, even if, you know, they're not getting a ton of value from their end of the deal quite yet.
00:26:10
Speaker 7: Yeah.
00:26:11
Speaker 4: It's they are basically just experiencing the same thing that we experienced over here for a while.
00:26:16
Speaker 5: It was just like, he's very good. He's got tremendous stuff.
00:26:21
Speaker 4: And yeah, He's going to constantly be injured because of either a shoulder impingement problem or a finger blister. And it looks like his stuff this year isn't even as good as.
00:26:33
Speaker 5: It was in the past.
00:26:34
Speaker 4: We used to always say he's got some of the best stuff in the majors, especially his changeup and his curveball. And this year it's pedestrian at best. So even when he's in, he's not doing particularly well. I'm not just talking about the walk rate because, yeah, the walk rate's not very good either. Even the stuff itself graded out very well while he was with the Marlins, just from a stuff perspective. But this year, it's not even looking that great on top of the unavailability. I think that it's a win for the Marlins, not even because of who they got back, but because of other guys that had nothing to do with the transaction that got to have more playing time in the rotation that we now see are doing a very good job. Yeah, it sucks because I wanted to see him flourish. He's just so talented that you want to see that talent come fully to fruition, but it just.
00:27:22
Speaker 5: Hasn't been there yet.
00:27:25
Speaker 3: I was going to try to pull up on the other screen to see, talking about the guys that have backfilled his rotation spot. Ryan Gusto at this point, I think at this point, Gusto has pitched just as many innings at the big league level as Carrera. Carrera 76, Gusto up to 67 and two-thirds innings pitched. And Gusto with a sub-4 ERA Cabrera in the mid-fives. If you were to tell us that Gusto would not just be better, but significantly better and have a comparable sample size of the big leagues and without any tragic injury to Cabrera too. It's been a couple of separate IL stints. With any pitcher, there's that risk of just blowing out your elbow or your shoulder and having something long-term happen. With Cabrera, that hasn't been the case. It's been a couple of separate incidents there. And under those circumstances, I think I'd be quite surprised to see that they really haven't missed him it's a different story more so with like Ryan Weathers who they traded around the same time and Weathers has had in most you could argue a career year on from himself in terms of both durability and performance so that's more of a guy that they've missed instead of a Cabrera right there yeah and with Casey not too much more that we're gonna dive into with him he's just been slumping quite a bit since coming off his own IL stints very up and down season for Casey overall and the strikeout issues kind of hang over his head in terms of where exactly his career is going unless he's able to remedy that particular issue. Sean, we should talk about the best player in baseball this year because he is coming to town. Pete Crow Armstrong has been that guy, somebody that statistically, any way you slice it, is the most valuable player in the game this year, defensively as good as any center fielder, and now offensively as good as any center fielder as well.
00:29:10
Speaker 2: Somebody that he had a very.
00:29:13
Speaker 3: I would say a confusing year last season where he was playing almost at this comparable level the first three months or so and then took a nosedive the second half, got a big extension anyway, and has fully justified that immediately.
00:29:25
Speaker 2: I think this is somebody that is.
00:29:30
Speaker 3: Going to be in a very elite tier, not in terms of just his performance, but in terms of the way that fans respond to him around the game. I think this is a guy that is probably drawing some people to Lone Depot Park that... haven't been there all season long just to see him because of the style that he plays for and the fact that he's on pace for, what, 10, 11 war overall as we get down the stretch. This is the main guy that the Marlins are going to have to game plan for these next few days.
00:29:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely.
00:29:55
Speaker 6: And I was thinking back, I was looking at his, you know, his war at the moment and thinking back to jazz a few years ago when he was taken over center field, you know, treating F nine war, like Armstrong is that pretty much now. And there was still a month of the season to go. So he's, you know, definitely, you know, surpassing that. I think he is, you know, 40, 40 seems well in.
00:30:15
Speaker 1: Play for him.
00:30:17
Speaker 6: It's a, and he's also just playing the best center field we've seen ever possibly um certainly on this you know century i think so it's uh he's on another level in both both sides both sides of the game offense defense i definitely think you're right that's going to drive some numbers and the cubs always do that too um you know cubs always you know draw well wherever they're they're at but He's an exciting player to watch. It's good for baseball. There will definitely be some blue fans in the stands watching him these next few games.
00:30:55
Speaker 3: It's an issue whenever some of these bigger market teams come in, especially ones that are playing well at this time of year, the way that the Cubs have been overall. As I mentioned, they're not red hot right now. They've lost six out of their last ten coming into town. Their offense has been ridiculous at Multiple games in the last week where they put up 17 runs apiece. So their offense is the best in baseball overall. It's led by PCA, but it's not only PCA. Almost every single spot in their lineup can produce runs. Number one in all baseball in terms of weighted runs created plus this season. And it's been that pitching staff, Cabrera himself, but a lot of others have gone in and out due to injuries. So it's Shota Imanaga in the series opener, but then some question marks the rest of the way that we'll figure out. They've had yet another pitcher, I think, go out for the rest of the year and Ben Brown, who was actually performing well when healthy, like they've just been there. They're a team that's very lopsided in terms of where they get their value from so much from their position players rather than their pitchers at this time of year. So, yeah, we're going to wrap up on the other side of the break first, got to send it over to jet ski rentals of South Florida. Friends at jet ski rentals of South Florida. They present all of our podcast efforts here on fish on first, Miami's best jet ski and boat adventures. Jet ski rentals of South Florida with six jet ski locations and over 120 boats. There's something for every style and every budget. Ride jet skis right in front of the downtown skyline in Ferris wheel or book your own private boat starting as low as $ 300 with the captain included. Bring your drinks, your friends and enjoy the water your way. The boat is completely yours for the time you reserve it. The reservation based only to book call 305-990-2192 or check them out online at sfjetskyrentals.com.
00:32:37
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00:32:38
Speaker 3: Promo code FISHONFIRST and that gets you a 10% discount off your next booking. Again, that's 305-990-2192 or online at sfjetskyrentals.com. Some other minor news nuggets that we'll get to before prediction time. Kyle Stowers leaving a game. Last night, due to hamstring tightness, but he did give an interview pregame today insisting that it was more so just a cramping situation, not going to go on the IL immediately, and hopefully not at all. They're going to take it day by day. So not in the lineup tonight for the series opener, but they are facing a lefty, so there's a chance he would have been sitting either way and available off the bench. So his availability for this opening game seems unlikely, but again, just a true day-to-day situation with Stowers, and we were more concerned that It'd be something outside of that.
00:33:30
Speaker 2: So that's a positive that it seems that he's going to get through that.
00:33:35
Speaker 3: The Marlins absolutely will need him down the stretch to have any chance of some sort of offensive consistency. Xavier Edwards is still out for at least another week as he reacts from his own injury, his thumb sprain that he suffered during the road trip. So that's something to keep in mind. And yeah, in the meantime, anything else I guess I'll go to, to, to Crouching. Anybody that you're watching particularly closely on the Marlins side this weekend that, that we haven't covered already outside of Alberto. And we touched briefly on those recent call-ups as well. But yeah, is there just anybody in particular that you think is going to be crucial to this Marlins team playing well? And as you know, up anyway, you slice it up, upsetting a team that's favored over them in, over the weekend.
00:34:30
Speaker 4: I'm interested to see what Griffin Conine does against the lefty tonight. He doesn't get, uh, starts often against the lefties. And even when he, uh, starts against righties, he's usually pulled once the lefty comes in. So I'm interested to see how he fares against Imanaga. Um, but yeah, uh, other than that, um, I, uh, I'm interested to see, uh, how junk does. Cause he's been a tremendous at home. Um, yeah, just those two guys. Right.
00:34:56
Speaker 3: Junk, uh, It should be reiterated that this Marlins rotation has been so effective when they've been on the mound. We got into a bit of a debate on the last unfiltered about just the usage of those guys where they've been throwing up zeros, but outside of Yuri and Sandy, they don't get any leash to, to prove it. So like a successful junk start is, it's basically five perfect endings. And even if he, it would be a great test to see if he was literally perfect, how deep into a game he would go. But we've seen Clayton pull these guys, even when they've had scoreless outings. as they're getting a third time through the line. They just did with Tyler Phillips on the previous road trip. He had one of his best starts of the season and still doesn't get really any sort of consideration in terms of working deep in the games. So it shifts a lot of the onus to this Marlins bullpen down the stretch of the season. Pete Fairbanks still out for both him and Bender on the men's working their way back, but won't be factors in this series either. So that's going to continue to be a roller coaster is these later innings and to see.
00:35:52
Speaker 2: Who they go to.
00:35:54
Speaker 3: Um, we'll get out quite, I'll shout out before we go to prediction time is Calvin Foshea. Like he's been a punching bag for, I'd say the first half of the year, he was quite a punching bag. He was really struggling in high leverage situations. He was walking too many guys. You stretch it out. Now going back to early July and it's about a sub one ERA for Foshea. Like it hasn't been quite as dominant as I would suggest, but it has been fewer walks, a lot fewer hits. Uh, even when he is walking guys, he is stranding more runners and he, we did see him get, uh, the most recent save situation going to him. He seems to be not, not their full-time closer, but their number one ninth inning option when a Fairbanks is out. And that's not as scary a proposition as it may have seemed earlier in the year now that he has settled down and he's closer to being the best version of himself that we saw when he initially arrived in Miami. So with that, let's go to everybody's favorite segment prediction time. This is Prediction Time. That's my prediction, but who knows? For every series here at FOF, we take predictions from FOF staffers, our valued super subs, other live stream guests. And here's the leaderboard heading down the stretch of the season, including this Cubs series. Only seven series remaining for us to predict. And Jeremiah Geiger and super sub David Fernandez, they've been going back and forth for a lot of the season. Jeremiah, one point ahead of as of this moment. Yeah. So there I'm on the board, but on the verge of being mathematically eliminated, Sean himself is in a similar spot too on there, but overall more than 50 of us have been official participants in prediction time. So far this season, we encourage everybody to jump in, even if it is too late to contend for a title at this time of year, we feel like this game always keeps people engaged a little bit coming down the stretch of the season itself. How many games the Marlins will win? Who will be the series MVP? We determined that with win probability added. Brian getting ahead of us in the chat already, thinking that the Marlins are going to win this series against the Cubs. And yeah, well, eager to hear the rest of your predictions leading up to first pitch of the series. So let me get the music going. And then we will start with Mr. Kruchik for his series predictions.
00:38:11
Speaker 2: Go ahead, Kruchik.
00:38:13
Speaker 4: I'm going to go with Cubs winning two of three, and I'm going to go with Seiya Suzuki for MVP.
00:38:23
Speaker 2: Sean Miller, your predictions, sir.
00:38:26
Speaker 6: I'm also taking the Cubs winning two out of three. While Pete Crow Armstrong's been amazing in the month of August, Alex Bregman was almost as awesome. 12 home runs, 30 RBIs last month. I think he keeps it going, and Alex Bregman will be the series MVP.
00:38:44
Speaker 3: Deep down, I think the Cubs will win. But at this, considering where I am in the standings at this time of year, might as well be contrarian and look for other alternate universes that are more interesting. I'm going to go with the Marlins winning two out of three against the Cubs in Miami these next few days.
00:39:01
Speaker 2: High scoring affairs.
00:39:02
Speaker 3: That's the only way that the Cubs know how to play baseball for the Marlins to win the series. Their offense is going to have to step up. So having Kyle Stowers is a bit of a question mark for this weekend hurts.
00:39:12
Speaker 2: They're going to need one of these.
00:39:13
Speaker 3: Rookies at least to have a surprising moment, whether it is a Jared Cerna or Davidson De Los Santos, somebody like that, that we haven't seen much of at the big league level and have some questions about moving forward. But this is the time of year where you really need contributions from everybody on your roster, maybe an approximately, Navarro performance, something like that. Even throw him in that same category as an unlikely contributor. The Marlins are going to need a ton of offense from the right-handed hitters that they haven't gotten for much of this year. So let me go with one of those right-handed hitters as my series MVP. Burt is the obvious one.
00:39:47
Speaker 2: Okay, so I'll go with Burt.
00:39:49
Speaker 3: Not going to be too tricky on that standpoint. Just been a really impressive year. A guy that has exceeded my expectations. I thought the league would figure him out to some extent, at least get him to swing and miss more often and challenge his ability to get on base. But he's just been a very good all-around offensive player. And I think he hits at least one home run this weekend for the Marlins to pull off the upset and hopefully to keep pace in the race for that third wildcard spot. And that's our show slightly abbreviated edition of FOF live here in the fish on first podcast found territory network and presented by jet ski rentals of South Florida. So we'll have another show on the, the aftermath of this series on, on Sunday after these three games to see where the Marlin stands at this time of year, things swing really dramatically between the vibes and also the wildcard math in just a few games. So they could be in a dramatically different place then than they are right now. And that's why we keep doing these shows and we appreciate everybody, that, uh, participate. So that's going to be a more conventionally time show. And I think moving forward, we're going to have everything either directly after a game or during an off day in between series. So something more traditional there, but thanks everybody for hopping in at, uh, at this series countdown edition for all intents and purposes of FLF live Eli Sussman, Sean Millerick, Alex Karachuk here, continue supporting what we do. We appreciate it. All our offerings are at fish on first.com. So go check that out. So we'll have another show on Sunday, a lot of coverage between now and then on the site. And as always, go fish.
Speaker 1: Hey, this is Kyle Stowers, and you're listening to Fish On First.
00:00:04
Speaker 2: Fish On First Welcome back.
00:00:37
Speaker 3: Fish on First live presented by Jet Ski Rentals of South Florida here on the Fish on First podcast channel, part of the Fowl Territory Network.
00:00:46
Speaker 2: This is a throwback.
00:00:46
Speaker 3: This is kind of the format we were using for the streams for most of the previous, I want to say four, if not five years. We're having them counting down essentially to the first pitch of a new Marlins series, just given the logistics, how late the Marlins ended up their series against the Royals last night on Thursday night. We were instead leading this directly into Wednesday, the most consequential homestand of the Marlins season. I would say the most consequential homestand for them in three years since mid-September of 2023. The first of three separate opponents they're hosting at the Lone Dome, beginning with the Chicago Cubs. I'm Eli Sussman, the founder of FOF, with Alex Krawczyk and with Sean Millerick by my side as well. Let's bring you down to where we're at with this Marlins team at a crucial juncture of the season. where they stand in the wildcard race, some recent news, touching on a lot of little topics here with you guys, and of course, given our predictions heading into this Cubs series for these next three games. Before getting into the recent games themselves, I do want to kind of amend something that was discussed on the previous FOF pod episode. The topic of Leo Jimenez came up yet again. He's been a divisive topic for this Marlins team this season, and my conclusion was that he would be sticking around in some capacity moving forward, despite people's frustrations. And lo and behold, I couldn't have been more wrong. Almost immediately after we published that episode, Leo designated for assignment, this guy that has been a surprising parts of this Marlins team, uh, from basically the start of the season, but not, you know, not surprising in terms of performance, but just surprising in terms of his longevity, despite a lack of production, we got into the numbers of data on the previous episode, but, I'll start with you, Crutchick, on the fact that they DFA him in some sense and makes room for Davis and De Los Santos. And not like any particular make or break moment for him that seemed to have resulted in this. He's kind of been the same guy for the previous five months, but just your reaction to the timing of it, that they make it the vast majority of the season with him as this default guy against all left-handed pitching.
00:02:53
Speaker 2: And then finally they... Yeah.
00:02:56
Speaker 3: Why do you think they finally cut the cord now with less than a month ago in this season?
00:03:01
Speaker 4: It's a good question as to why they decided to cut the cord now, because I was actually going to say one of the most frustrating things about Leo Jimenez and probably the reason that they didn't call anyone up to begin with is because there wasn't really anyone in the minors that was pushing to take that job. Um, even Davidson de los Santos, which we'll get into him later on. I'm not super disappointed in how he played in the minors this year, but it wasn't exactly like Joe Mack at catcher where it's like, we got to bring this guy up. Um, it's curious why they chose now, because like I said, the reason that they didn't bring them up in the first place is because no one was really, uh, forcing their hands to bring anyone up in the first place, and that continued to be such. I don't think Davison De Los Santos, while he has improved a little bit this year over last, he wasn't doing any better recently than he was earlier in the year.
00:03:52
Speaker 5: And so, yeah, it's a good question.
00:03:54
Speaker 4: I don't know why now. As for why they didn't do it earlier, I mean, he was not good. The cool thing about modern baseball is that all of these underlying stats that organizations look at, where in the past maybe organizations will see something that we don't see, a lot of the things that they see are things that we see. These organizations love stuff like K-rate, walk rate, WRC +. You can find that publicly, which means that you can publicly see that He's fine with the K rate. He's right in the middle in terms of his K rate, same as his walk rate. I will say the only thing that I could find when it comes to underlying stats is he doesn't really chase a lot. But other than that, he's not really good. He doesn't barrel up the ball. He doesn't hit the ball hard. He can't slug. Fielding-wise, he can't really field. And for an organization that really prides itself on... fielding and fielding versatility, he doesn't really have that. So it was, they gave him a lot of chances and it just never happened. Additionally, we kind of had the same conversation about like Chris Paddock earlier in the year. Your underlying numbers can be fine, but unless they really, really stand out, eventually you do have to actually produce.
00:05:14
Speaker 5: I don't care how good the underlying stats are.
00:05:18
Speaker 4: Once you've, he had 194 plate appearances here. At some point you would think that, that it would show up on the field instead of just in a, in a baseball.
00:05:30
Speaker 5: Savant's that cast.
00:05:33
Speaker 6: Yeah.
00:05:33
Speaker 3: You did kind of touch on something important there that early on about the lack of alternatives within the organization that would definitely be better because I did mention that Davison was the direct corresponding move. It's, More one-to-one, I would say that it's Jared Cerna that kind of fills his spot as well. Another right-handed hitting infielder who just wasn't hitting very well, even at the AAA level this year. They acquired him in the Jazz System Junior Trade. He made his first career start in Kansas City. And yeah, he's a guy that I used to like as a prospect a couple of years ago when they made the move in the first place. But somebody who, frankly, you can't necessarily say with a whole lot of confidence that he's going to be better than Jimenez is. Maybe slightly better as a base runner, a little bit more defensive versatility. Anything else, Sean, that you want to touch on with Jimenez as he goes through the waiver process? He's not officially gone from the organization yet. We'll find out perhaps by this time on Saturday whether he was claimed or not. By the way, he squeezed off the 40-man and is seemingly done in terms of contributing at the big league level this season.
00:06:33
Speaker 6: I think you guys hit on all of it. I mean, I too was surprised. I think I speculated on the other– the day that this news came out that Serna would be moving back off the roster. We saw that De Los Santos might be coming up just because they had made it this long with Jimenez. The only thing I might add is that for them waiting this long, maybe they're thinking that since it is after September 1st and no team that is adding him would be, and I'll try to say this with a straight face, be able to have him on the roster for the postseason. So since he might make it through at this point, then they could sneak him back into and keep him in the organization.
00:07:13
Speaker 1: Since it's clear they do.
00:07:14
Speaker 6: Have a fund that's for him. But other than that, after nearly 200 plate appearances, as we said, we needed to move on and get a good look at De Los Santos before heading into next season, whenever that will be.
00:07:34
Speaker 5: Yeah.
00:07:34
Speaker 3: We'll get some of a look at Taylor Santos.
00:07:37
Speaker 2: A good look.
00:07:37
Speaker 3: It will depend a bit on a couple of factors. He's in the starting lineup tonight against a lefty for this first game of this cup series. We expect him to be in the lineup against practically all lefties down the stretch.
00:07:46
Speaker 2: So that is something.
00:07:47
Speaker 3: And then as we'll touch on later, a bit of an injury scare with Kyle Stowers, but it does appear from the early indications that it is generally just a day-to-day injury with him. Whereas, so he should be the one that is their primary first base when these final few weeks of the year, definitely whenever they're facing a right-handed pitcher. Let us quickly get into this most recent series against the Royals. A series I had a little bit of difficulty assessing heading into it just because the Royals had quietly been about as hot as any team in baseball the previous couple of weeks prior to the series. They'd won 11 out of their previous 13 games. Their offense had really turned it on. And they've just been playing very good all-around baseball for a team that has the last place team in the AL central out of it for all intents and purposes, but you just don't know how intimidating an opponent is going to be just based on their overall numbers. Sometimes you actually need to look at the recent performance in this case, the Marlins do take care of business by winning two out of three, even had a lead in that final game, but ultimately lose that Sandy series finale. So we'll actually go in this time, traditional chronological order starting with that, that first game, Yeah, six to three win where that was even more comfortable than the final score would indicate. I believe they led six to nothing before a couple runs late made it on paper look a little bit more competitive than it actually was. Home runs by Grand Pauly. That's the Grand Pauly game. Grand Pauly made his return. Speaking of another guy that was recently brought up to the big league level in a part time role that the Marlins need to evaluate down the stretch, Grand Pauly. has that really big performance, a triple and a homer in that game. So we'll stop right there for a moment, Krawczyk, on Pauly, because I know that you've been an advocate for him in the past. This has been a mostly lost season for him. A lot of frequent flatter miles up to Jacksonville and down to Miami, Jacksonville to Miami, Jacksonville to Miami, Jacksonville to Miami. And I'm not saying that for a fact. Like, literally, he's made that many call-ups and sent-downs this season. This is his sixth separate stint on the big league roster. Yeah, so Paulie, we had entering this year, he was the guy that people had circled as the likely primary third baseman for this team. We thought he'd be a mainstay. on the roster and potentially somebody that would be in the lineup most of the games this entire year, but the bat just hasn't been there. So we don't want to overreact to just that one performance. It's still, it is something, right? That a guy that needed to, we've seen glimpses of it in 2025 about him developing into what could be a really nice all-around hitter in addition to the good defense at third base.
00:10:24
Speaker 2: And he just, in.
00:10:26
Speaker 3: This very small sample down the stretch, he did everything in his power, at least for that first start, to give some hope that there's still a player, a useful player that the Marlins can salvage here.
00:10:38
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's been a super weird.
00:10:42
Speaker 4: couple years for him because I remember the scouting report on him was always.
00:10:45
Speaker 5: He's a fine hitter.
00:10:46
Speaker 4: He'll hit for a little bit of power, 15 to 20 home runs, but he's terrible at defense.
00:10:50
Speaker 5: And it seems to be quite the opposite. I really like him at third base.
00:10:52
Speaker 4: He hasn't been as good at third base this year as it was last year, but I still believe in him there. Uh, this year he's, he hasn't really found his groove offensively until this week. I thought it was a great game from him. Um, I can't put my finger on like why he's been, um, so disappointing at the plate i mean i'll look at his numbers and like hitting the fastball and the breaking ball he's actually not bad at all um well i'll say not bad at all he's not struggling he's not uh excelling there either but the common denominator for the last couple years is the off-speed stuff like the off-speed stuff is the worst for him and it's not a coincidence that i think the the triple that he hit on tuesday night i it was a sinker so the fastball um i don't know that's all i can find when i when i look at his stuff because when i watch his at bats they're not obviously bad at bats you know like you'll see some guys where you can see with your naked eye that this is a bad at bat he doesn't really do that it's just you know he's he's not he's not whiffing a whole lot he just can't really seem to hit as as strongly as we thought.
00:12:02
Speaker 3: That he was going to no yeah even even so he's someone last year that I was more just concerned about the power aspect from him. I didn't think that was real. That was something he showed a little bit at AAA. And to this point, it hasn't translated into his big league career. It is the more surprising part that I just thought he had a semi-decent floor getting on base. And for him to be this deep into the season, even with that performance, a 230 OBP this season. I mean, even Leo Jimenez would scoff at that. That was a huge struggle.
00:12:31
Speaker 4: Last year, one thing that he did really well was he was near the top of the league. I mean, he wasn't a qualified hitter, but if he was a qualified hitter, he was near the top of the league in walk rate, and he was pretty middle of the road when it came to K rate. Now, still middle of the road in K rate, but terrible at drawing walks.
00:12:47
Speaker 5: His walk rate is, let me see.
00:12:49
Speaker 4: It's 4% compared to 11% last year.
00:12:52
Speaker 2: Yeah, right, exactly.
00:12:55
Speaker 3: A couple other things from the series to get to. In the latter two games, both of them, Herberto Hernandez hits home runs. In that middle game, Yuri Perez gets off to as bad an opening ending as you could ever have a nightmare about. I think he allowed four runs before getting a single out in that one. There have been a couple of times in Yuri's career where he has been just knocked out of the game immediately like that. And that felt like another repeat of that script got barreled up three separate times, a couple of home runs in there. And he's able to navigate it. He almost get through five in that game. And the Marlins are able to rally for nine runs to, to put that one away. So they had, again, I mentioned Hernandez, a Homer in that one, a snow, I had a home run as well. Jacob Marcy, I think at the very end of that one, a Homer too, I guess we could stop on a few different guys, Sean, but I did want to just check in on Araberto as we get this deep into the season and his, I mean, that, that power that he has is still chugging along. He's, 23 home runs for this guy that, as we've reiterated again and again, wasn't even on this big league roster during a brief portion early in the season. He got understandably demoted, wasn't paying for power at all early on. Almost all those homers have come since the middle of May, and he now pretty much has a commanding lead for the team in homers this season. It's the kind of power-hitting season that they haven't had from a right-handed hitter since Jorge Soler. And the fact that a guy that they picked up as a minor league free agent is going to have somewhat of a comparable season to the one that Soler had in his final Marlins year as their big established veteran bat from that side. What do you just think about the year that he's had to this point and the way that he's settled in and become a true everyday player too? A guy that I think, best case scenario, we thought he'd be a great platoon corner outfielder, but instead he's been in the lineup almost every.
00:14:50
Speaker 2: Day these last few months and he's taken advantage of it.
00:14:53
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's really been remarkable. And just, you know, the perspective for the Sherman era for a power hitter from any side of the plate. I mean, it's a really short list of guys. He's, um, so, you know, we're 23. He's, um, I think it's just three hitters in the Sherman era that are ahead of him. I've got, you know, Solaire at 36, Berger at 29, and Stowers last year at 25. Seems definitely safe to clear Stowers.
00:15:18
Speaker 1: And, um, Berger, maybe.
00:15:20
Speaker 6: At the pace that he's on, it could just be Soler he's looking up at by the time the season wraps. I certainly didn't have that on my Marlins 26 bingo card when things started. It's another feather in Bendix's cap for finding a guy out of nowhere, turning him into a starter. It's really been fun to watch.
00:15:44
Speaker 3: Thank you to people in the live chat following along here. This is one comment from Beefcat that I found I think it articulates it pretty well about how there has been an inconsistency in terms of which of these fringe roster, youngish guys actually get an opportunity to prove themselves in which don't. Jimenez, the contrast between like Jimenez and Davison is a perfect example of that.
00:16:02
Speaker 2: Like Davison has, you see.
00:16:04
Speaker 3: Midway through deep into his third year at the AAA level. And he has obvious upside in ways that Jimenez doesn't. And yet Jimenez was on this roster effectively the entire season and Davison is is tonight going to be playing in maybe his fifth game, fifth or sixth game total at the big league level this year, despite having very little left to prove at that level. And the other part of that is just how some of these guys are Bendix guys. Like Davidson was a Bendix guy acquired in 2024 in a trade at the deadline that was picked up by this current regime. And yet somebody that gets much shorter leash than other players in a very similar position. So that is a good note on that. Quite a bit more for us to get to on the other side of the breaks. Final thoughts on that series and just looking ahead at this crucial time of year where the Marlins stand. We don't really need to dress up more than that. All these games are super important and they have a very intimidating opponent on deck this weekend in the Cubs. So first, we'll take a break here from our friends at Seat Geek and we'll talk to you on the other side.
00:17:00
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00:17:07
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00:17:08
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00:17:09
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00:17:15
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00:17:15
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00:17:33
Speaker 3: Don't worry.
00:17:34
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00:17:45
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00:18:03
Speaker 3: Welcome back here on FOF Live. Eli, Sean Millerick, Alex Kruchik with you. Counting down to the start of this crucial Cubs series and a look at the wildcard standings as things currently sit with 21 games remaining. The Marlins only three games out behind the D-backs, two and a half chasing the Padres as well. And a game cushion on the Cardinals. Apparently the Pirates aren't dead yet. I would kind of ridden them off, but they've won about four of their last five or so to hang back in the periphery again enough so that I have to show them on this overview right there. So still teams both in front and behind, but realistically it's going to be about the Marlins playing what they have to play. Like one of the best teams in the league in order to win out over the rest of this group. That's ultimately what's, what it's going to take winning the vast majority of their series down the stretch. They're not going to catch the Cubs, but there are the Cubs eight games between these two teams in the standings that separate them. And they're going to be playing six of them head to head. So it is like if the Marlins were to dominate that head-to-head matchup, then they could close most of the gap. But realistically, this is a Cubs team that, despite not playing especially well lately, is a very intimidating group right there. But yeah, Crutch, just checking on the overall state of this race for the third wild card for all intents and purposes with the D-backs and the Padres right ahead of them.
00:19:24
Speaker 2: I think there was.
00:19:26
Speaker 3: probably a moment, not that long ago, I guess you could say maybe just a week ago or felt like this was slipping away from the Marlins. But, uh, and from, from a certain standpoint, it's actually shaping up.
00:19:37
Speaker 2: Quite a bit.
00:19:37
Speaker 3: Like it was last year in the wild card race where that, that team, that Marlins team in 2025 was not playoff ready, but yet they kind of hung around in the mix until the final week of the year, just because none of these other teams are really running away from it. In this three wildcard era, sometimes it's that third wildcard. There isn't a team. There isn't a legitimately good team that is able to fill that spot. And that's how you just get a wide variety of clubs that remain within striking distance, even this late into the year.
00:20:11
Speaker 4: Body of work for the Marlins is such that I think that their overall of 500 team, um, I think they're going to play 500 for the remainder of the year with the exception of, I think they've also shown.
00:20:21
Speaker 5: That they can be extremely streaky.
00:20:24
Speaker 4: And so I think there's going to be a week this month where they go one in five or five and one. And I think whichever swing they take will determine if they make the playoffs. Um, I do think they have one more streak left in them. Again, if that's a losing streak or a winning streak, that'll determine everything. The good thing is they're in one of these weird spots where they sort of control their own destiny because even though they are not They don't have a hold of any wildcard spots. They're within striking distance of two teams that are directly in front of them, which means there will be an opportunity for them to directly affect the teams that are in front of them instead of hoping that you win and that the other teams lose. They'll play three games against the Diamond on the same road.
00:21:08
Speaker 5: Trip, actually.
00:21:08
Speaker 4: It'll probably be the most important road trip the Marlins have taken in the Bruce Sherman era. You'll play the Diamondbacks for three games later in the month and then the Padres three games after that. Um, so yeah, if they can stay within a game or two at that point, um, you know, they've, they've done well for themselves and they've done a good job of putting themselves.
00:21:29
Speaker 5: In a good position.
00:21:31
Speaker 3: Here's a closer look at these upcoming games before we get to that road trip itself. This is a, that homestand that they're facing right now, three against the Cubs and three against the Mets. And it's going to be an off day in between before three against the two time defending world series champion Dodgers, uh, Sean, this team's been playing really well at home all year long. 15 games over 500 at home.
00:21:54
Speaker 2: And so you could do the math.
00:21:55
Speaker 3: There are almost that many games below 500 on the road to remain in this situation. And I kind of dug into the numbers and I was surprised by what I saw where offensively they are the exact same team. No matter where they are, it's the pitching that has been borderline elite when they're at home for whatever variety of reasons.
00:22:13
Speaker 2: I don't know. Is that something you noticed?
00:22:15
Speaker 3: Is that something that this deep into the year we're going to put any stock into to have an extra layer of confidence when the Marlins are at home just because they've performed that well? I mean, there have been times, I think in most cases, where there feels like there's some randomness to it. But when we're five plus months into the season and there are these two alternate identities, at least from the pitching staff, home and road, I guess you got to put some stock into it, right? And have some, even though the fact that this weekend and then this following weekend, they're going to be significant underdogs against those teams that are coming to town. There's this long track record of really awesome performance overall from the team and some good memories at Lone Depot this season.
00:22:57
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I think it's certainly fair to call five months a sample size with her. So, you know, you got to take this a little seriously. It is upsetting that these are, you know, two of the best offenses in baseball. The Cubs are the best-based team in offense in baseball.
00:23:13
Speaker 5: I believe.
00:23:14
Speaker 6: And, you know, we'll get to that. And we're not going to have Sandy or Uri for that series. And I think we'll just have one of them going against the Dodgers, have it shakes out. So that sucks some of the fun out of the sales of those pitching stats. But, yeah, I think they've played competitive baseball season-long. I think there'll be plenty of tightly contested games on this homestand.
00:23:36
Speaker 1: But it's... It's going to.
00:23:38
Speaker 6: Be the offense that's going to have to pick it up and add another level to compete with these two teams and the Mets.
00:23:46
Speaker 3: And the Mets, who have been a solid team for an extended stretch of the season, even since essentially waving the white flag on their own competitive aspirations. You might say, looking at this homestand, it's unfortunate the way that the rotation lines up. That's only going to be one sandy start over these next nine games just because he unless they fiddle with the rotation, that's something else to look out for this stage of the year where they have an off day coming up in the middle of the homestand. Do they actually bring him? Do they skip somebody in the rotation in order to have an extra Sandy start.
00:24:16
Speaker 2: At in Miami?
00:24:17
Speaker 3: Like they haven't done that all year. That's something that I think generally speaking, we've seen the small team be relatively cautious with workload usage, even for the most veteran players, but that there is an opportunity to squeeze him in at the very end of that Dodger series as well. For this Cubs series, no Sandy, no Uri, and they will be facing some question marks on the Cubs side as well. The Cubs rotation has been a bit of a mess too. This is an interesting time. This is the first time that the Marlins have played the Cubs this year to check in on what was the more notable trades of last offseason. Edward Cabrera for Owen Casey and a couple other prospects. This deep into the year, the Cubs are doing well. I'd say they're pretty close to meeting expectations as they're cruising into the playoffs, even if they're not going to win their division. And Cabrera hasn't been a part of that much at all. He was a guy that was impressive in spring training. I remember, I remember seeing some spring training outings and hearing optimism about how they were going to elevate his game to the next level. His performance early on was all right, but he's been as Cabrera's history has always been. He finds creative ways to wind up on the IL most recently with a blister issue. It, Crutchick, if you could try to put yourself in the mind state that you were back in January when they made that trade and the way that it has played out since, kind of on both sides, it's Cabrera at this stage of the year. The Cubs are winning almost in spite of him, getting very little out of him, an ERA in the fives. Just to remind people, this is a guy that had his best year of his career last year. He was their arguably the most important pitcher over the course of, of last season between being available and suddenly throwing strikes. But now I get, it does seem that the Marlins sold high on him at the right time, even if, you know, they're not getting a ton of value from their end of the deal quite yet.
00:26:10
Speaker 7: Yeah.
00:26:11
Speaker 4: It's they are basically just experiencing the same thing that we experienced over here for a while.
00:26:16
Speaker 5: It was just like, he's very good. He's got tremendous stuff.
00:26:21
Speaker 4: And yeah, He's going to constantly be injured because of either a shoulder impingement problem or a finger blister. And it looks like his stuff this year isn't even as good as.
00:26:33
Speaker 5: It was in the past.
00:26:34
Speaker 4: We used to always say he's got some of the best stuff in the majors, especially his changeup and his curveball. And this year it's pedestrian at best. So even when he's in, he's not doing particularly well. I'm not just talking about the walk rate because, yeah, the walk rate's not very good either. Even the stuff itself graded out very well while he was with the Marlins, just from a stuff perspective. But this year, it's not even looking that great on top of the unavailability. I think that it's a win for the Marlins, not even because of who they got back, but because of other guys that had nothing to do with the transaction that got to have more playing time in the rotation that we now see are doing a very good job. Yeah, it sucks because I wanted to see him flourish. He's just so talented that you want to see that talent come fully to fruition, but it just.
00:27:22
Speaker 5: Hasn't been there yet.
00:27:25
Speaker 3: I was going to try to pull up on the other screen to see, talking about the guys that have backfilled his rotation spot. Ryan Gusto at this point, I think at this point, Gusto has pitched just as many innings at the big league level as Carrera. Carrera 76, Gusto up to 67 and two-thirds innings pitched. And Gusto with a sub-4 ERA Cabrera in the mid-fives. If you were to tell us that Gusto would not just be better, but significantly better and have a comparable sample size of the big leagues and without any tragic injury to Cabrera too. It's been a couple of separate IL stints. With any pitcher, there's that risk of just blowing out your elbow or your shoulder and having something long-term happen. With Cabrera, that hasn't been the case. It's been a couple of separate incidents there. And under those circumstances, I think I'd be quite surprised to see that they really haven't missed him it's a different story more so with like Ryan Weathers who they traded around the same time and Weathers has had in most you could argue a career year on from himself in terms of both durability and performance so that's more of a guy that they've missed instead of a Cabrera right there yeah and with Casey not too much more that we're gonna dive into with him he's just been slumping quite a bit since coming off his own IL stints very up and down season for Casey overall and the strikeout issues kind of hang over his head in terms of where exactly his career is going unless he's able to remedy that particular issue. Sean, we should talk about the best player in baseball this year because he is coming to town. Pete Crow Armstrong has been that guy, somebody that statistically, any way you slice it, is the most valuable player in the game this year, defensively as good as any center fielder, and now offensively as good as any center fielder as well.
00:29:10
Speaker 2: Somebody that he had a very.
00:29:13
Speaker 3: I would say a confusing year last season where he was playing almost at this comparable level the first three months or so and then took a nosedive the second half, got a big extension anyway, and has fully justified that immediately.
00:29:25
Speaker 2: I think this is somebody that is.
00:29:30
Speaker 3: Going to be in a very elite tier, not in terms of just his performance, but in terms of the way that fans respond to him around the game. I think this is a guy that is probably drawing some people to Lone Depot Park that... haven't been there all season long just to see him because of the style that he plays for and the fact that he's on pace for, what, 10, 11 war overall as we get down the stretch. This is the main guy that the Marlins are going to have to game plan for these next few days.
00:29:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely.
00:29:55
Speaker 6: And I was thinking back, I was looking at his, you know, his war at the moment and thinking back to jazz a few years ago when he was taken over center field, you know, treating F nine war, like Armstrong is that pretty much now. And there was still a month of the season to go. So he's, you know, definitely, you know, surpassing that. I think he is, you know, 40, 40 seems well in.
00:30:15
Speaker 1: Play for him.
00:30:17
Speaker 6: It's a, and he's also just playing the best center field we've seen ever possibly um certainly on this you know century i think so it's uh he's on another level in both both sides both sides of the game offense defense i definitely think you're right that's going to drive some numbers and the cubs always do that too um you know cubs always you know draw well wherever they're they're at but He's an exciting player to watch. It's good for baseball. There will definitely be some blue fans in the stands watching him these next few games.
00:30:55
Speaker 3: It's an issue whenever some of these bigger market teams come in, especially ones that are playing well at this time of year, the way that the Cubs have been overall. As I mentioned, they're not red hot right now. They've lost six out of their last ten coming into town. Their offense has been ridiculous at Multiple games in the last week where they put up 17 runs apiece. So their offense is the best in baseball overall. It's led by PCA, but it's not only PCA. Almost every single spot in their lineup can produce runs. Number one in all baseball in terms of weighted runs created plus this season. And it's been that pitching staff, Cabrera himself, but a lot of others have gone in and out due to injuries. So it's Shota Imanaga in the series opener, but then some question marks the rest of the way that we'll figure out. They've had yet another pitcher, I think, go out for the rest of the year and Ben Brown, who was actually performing well when healthy, like they've just been there. They're a team that's very lopsided in terms of where they get their value from so much from their position players rather than their pitchers at this time of year. So, yeah, we're going to wrap up on the other side of the break first, got to send it over to jet ski rentals of South Florida. Friends at jet ski rentals of South Florida. They present all of our podcast efforts here on fish on first, Miami's best jet ski and boat adventures. Jet ski rentals of South Florida with six jet ski locations and over 120 boats. There's something for every style and every budget. Ride jet skis right in front of the downtown skyline in Ferris wheel or book your own private boat starting as low as $ 300 with the captain included. Bring your drinks, your friends and enjoy the water your way. The boat is completely yours for the time you reserve it. The reservation based only to book call 305-990-2192 or check them out online at sfjetskyrentals.com.
00:32:37
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00:32:38
Speaker 3: Promo code FISHONFIRST and that gets you a 10% discount off your next booking. Again, that's 305-990-2192 or online at sfjetskyrentals.com. Some other minor news nuggets that we'll get to before prediction time. Kyle Stowers leaving a game. Last night, due to hamstring tightness, but he did give an interview pregame today insisting that it was more so just a cramping situation, not going to go on the IL immediately, and hopefully not at all. They're going to take it day by day. So not in the lineup tonight for the series opener, but they are facing a lefty, so there's a chance he would have been sitting either way and available off the bench. So his availability for this opening game seems unlikely, but again, just a true day-to-day situation with Stowers, and we were more concerned that It'd be something outside of that.
00:33:30
Speaker 2: So that's a positive that it seems that he's going to get through that.
00:33:35
Speaker 3: The Marlins absolutely will need him down the stretch to have any chance of some sort of offensive consistency. Xavier Edwards is still out for at least another week as he reacts from his own injury, his thumb sprain that he suffered during the road trip. So that's something to keep in mind. And yeah, in the meantime, anything else I guess I'll go to, to, to Crouching. Anybody that you're watching particularly closely on the Marlins side this weekend that, that we haven't covered already outside of Alberto. And we touched briefly on those recent call-ups as well. But yeah, is there just anybody in particular that you think is going to be crucial to this Marlins team playing well? And as you know, up anyway, you slice it up, upsetting a team that's favored over them in, over the weekend.
00:34:30
Speaker 4: I'm interested to see what Griffin Conine does against the lefty tonight. He doesn't get, uh, starts often against the lefties. And even when he, uh, starts against righties, he's usually pulled once the lefty comes in. So I'm interested to see how he fares against Imanaga. Um, but yeah, uh, other than that, um, I, uh, I'm interested to see, uh, how junk does. Cause he's been a tremendous at home. Um, yeah, just those two guys. Right.
00:34:56
Speaker 3: Junk, uh, It should be reiterated that this Marlins rotation has been so effective when they've been on the mound. We got into a bit of a debate on the last unfiltered about just the usage of those guys where they've been throwing up zeros, but outside of Yuri and Sandy, they don't get any leash to, to prove it. So like a successful junk start is, it's basically five perfect endings. And even if he, it would be a great test to see if he was literally perfect, how deep into a game he would go. But we've seen Clayton pull these guys, even when they've had scoreless outings. as they're getting a third time through the line. They just did with Tyler Phillips on the previous road trip. He had one of his best starts of the season and still doesn't get really any sort of consideration in terms of working deep in the games. So it shifts a lot of the onus to this Marlins bullpen down the stretch of the season. Pete Fairbanks still out for both him and Bender on the men's working their way back, but won't be factors in this series either. So that's going to continue to be a roller coaster is these later innings and to see.
00:35:52
Speaker 2: Who they go to.
00:35:54
Speaker 3: Um, we'll get out quite, I'll shout out before we go to prediction time is Calvin Foshea. Like he's been a punching bag for, I'd say the first half of the year, he was quite a punching bag. He was really struggling in high leverage situations. He was walking too many guys. You stretch it out. Now going back to early July and it's about a sub one ERA for Foshea. Like it hasn't been quite as dominant as I would suggest, but it has been fewer walks, a lot fewer hits. Uh, even when he is walking guys, he is stranding more runners and he, we did see him get, uh, the most recent save situation going to him. He seems to be not, not their full-time closer, but their number one ninth inning option when a Fairbanks is out. And that's not as scary a proposition as it may have seemed earlier in the year now that he has settled down and he's closer to being the best version of himself that we saw when he initially arrived in Miami. So with that, let's go to everybody's favorite segment prediction time. This is Prediction Time. That's my prediction, but who knows? For every series here at FOF, we take predictions from FOF staffers, our valued super subs, other live stream guests. And here's the leaderboard heading down the stretch of the season, including this Cubs series. Only seven series remaining for us to predict. And Jeremiah Geiger and super sub David Fernandez, they've been going back and forth for a lot of the season. Jeremiah, one point ahead of as of this moment. Yeah. So there I'm on the board, but on the verge of being mathematically eliminated, Sean himself is in a similar spot too on there, but overall more than 50 of us have been official participants in prediction time. So far this season, we encourage everybody to jump in, even if it is too late to contend for a title at this time of year, we feel like this game always keeps people engaged a little bit coming down the stretch of the season itself. How many games the Marlins will win? Who will be the series MVP? We determined that with win probability added. Brian getting ahead of us in the chat already, thinking that the Marlins are going to win this series against the Cubs. And yeah, well, eager to hear the rest of your predictions leading up to first pitch of the series. So let me get the music going. And then we will start with Mr. Kruchik for his series predictions.
00:38:11
Speaker 2: Go ahead, Kruchik.
00:38:13
Speaker 4: I'm going to go with Cubs winning two of three, and I'm going to go with Seiya Suzuki for MVP.
00:38:23
Speaker 2: Sean Miller, your predictions, sir.
00:38:26
Speaker 6: I'm also taking the Cubs winning two out of three. While Pete Crow Armstrong's been amazing in the month of August, Alex Bregman was almost as awesome. 12 home runs, 30 RBIs last month. I think he keeps it going, and Alex Bregman will be the series MVP.
00:38:44
Speaker 3: Deep down, I think the Cubs will win. But at this, considering where I am in the standings at this time of year, might as well be contrarian and look for other alternate universes that are more interesting. I'm going to go with the Marlins winning two out of three against the Cubs in Miami these next few days.
00:39:01
Speaker 2: High scoring affairs.
00:39:02
Speaker 3: That's the only way that the Cubs know how to play baseball for the Marlins to win the series. Their offense is going to have to step up. So having Kyle Stowers is a bit of a question mark for this weekend hurts.
00:39:12
Speaker 2: They're going to need one of these.
00:39:13
Speaker 3: Rookies at least to have a surprising moment, whether it is a Jared Cerna or Davidson De Los Santos, somebody like that, that we haven't seen much of at the big league level and have some questions about moving forward. But this is the time of year where you really need contributions from everybody on your roster, maybe an approximately, Navarro performance, something like that. Even throw him in that same category as an unlikely contributor. The Marlins are going to need a ton of offense from the right-handed hitters that they haven't gotten for much of this year. So let me go with one of those right-handed hitters as my series MVP. Burt is the obvious one.
00:39:47
Speaker 2: Okay, so I'll go with Burt.
00:39:49
Speaker 3: Not going to be too tricky on that standpoint. Just been a really impressive year. A guy that has exceeded my expectations. I thought the league would figure him out to some extent, at least get him to swing and miss more often and challenge his ability to get on base. But he's just been a very good all-around offensive player. And I think he hits at least one home run this weekend for the Marlins to pull off the upset and hopefully to keep pace in the race for that third wildcard spot. And that's our show slightly abbreviated edition of FOF live here in the fish on first podcast found territory network and presented by jet ski rentals of South Florida. So we'll have another show on the, the aftermath of this series on, on Sunday after these three games to see where the Marlin stands at this time of year, things swing really dramatically between the vibes and also the wildcard math in just a few games. So they could be in a dramatically different place then than they are right now. And that's why we keep doing these shows and we appreciate everybody, that, uh, participate. So that's going to be a more conventionally time show. And I think moving forward, we're going to have everything either directly after a game or during an off day in between series. So something more traditional there, but thanks everybody for hopping in at, uh, at this series countdown edition for all intents and purposes of FLF live Eli Sussman, Sean Millerick, Alex Karachuk here, continue supporting what we do. We appreciate it. All our offerings are at fish on first.com. So go check that out. So we'll have another show on Sunday, a lot of coverage between now and then on the site. And as always, go fish.
