ABOUT THIS EPISODE
This week’s conversation centered on how the edge is changing. Kevin talks about why information alone matters less in an AI-driven world, where he believes advantage comes from now, how higher rates are changing capital allocation, and the frameworks he uses to evaluate businesses, investments and opportunities.
1:15 — What FARMCON is really trying to build – Kevin explains why FARMCON is increasingly focused on helping producers become better business owners, capital allocators and leaders.
3:20 — AI made information cheap. So where does the edge come from now? – Kevin believes information itself is becoming less of an advantage. The next edge comes from networks, experience, wisdom and knowing how to separate noise from what actually matters.
19:00 — Kevin on patience – After taking soybean puts off one day too early, Kevin talks about how patience has changed throughout his trading career and whether he is actually becoming less patient as he gets older.
22:30 — When does doing more become doing too much? – Kevin questions when successful people should stop constantly adding businesses, investments and projects and begin protecting more of what they have already built.
27:45 — When is enough enough? – Kevin discusses the challenge of knowing when to stop chasing the next opportunity and redirect more energy toward family, community and helping others.
39:30 — Diesel: the next break may be the opportunity – Energy traders Kevin trusts believe diesel could experience a meaningful pullback before potentially moving sharply higher again into winter and spring.
42:30 — Don’t try to pick the bottom – Kevin explains why he would consider gradually locking in fuel on a major pullback rather than trying to perfectly time the low.
46:00 — Are the economic measurements getting old? – Kevin questions whether traditional economic data adequately captures how dramatically spending patterns have changed across generations.
54:30 — The $100,000 General Lee vs. a Treasury bond – Kevin compares buying a collectible Dodge Charger with putting the same money into a relatively low-risk investment and explains why higher interest rates change the hurdle rate for every other investment.
56:30 — Everybody is competing for the same investment dollar – Stocks, real estate, collectibles, crypto, private investments and other assets now have to compete with increasingly attractive returns available in safer investments.
1:00:00 — Has investing become another form of gambling? – Kevin talks about sports betting, day trading, collectibles and leveraged investing and his concern that delayed gratification is disappearing.
1:03:30 — Why ag-tech capital has changed dramatically – Investors have been burned, capital is no longer free and ag-tech companies now have to clear a much higher bar to attract investment.
1:06:00 — Kevin would rather back a bootstrapper – Kevin explains why he increasingly favors founders who use their own money, work directly with customers and prove the business before aggressively raising outside capital.
1:08:30 — Solve a real problem – Kevin argues that companies should solve problems producers already have rather than inventing problems simply because they have a technology or product to sell.
1:10:30 — The first thing every business needs isn’t money – Kevin says the first thing a business needs is customers. Before more capital or employees, prove that real people want the product and will pay for it.
1:12:30 — The Ted Williams approach to investing – Kevin explains why he now waits for investment opportunities that fit his experience, temperament and strengths instead of swinging at every good story.
1:17:00 — Kevin’s quick business matrix – Kevin explains how he quickly evaluates whether a business is commoditized or unique, its pricing power, customer acquisition costs, target customer and ability to retain business.
1:20:30 — You cannot learn greatness by reading about it – Kevin says young entrepreneurs need to move fast, make mistakes, learn from them and get back after it. Experience comes from doing.
QUICK MARKET CHECK
8:00 — Corn – Kevin sees relatively little remaining production surprise and believes demand now has to provide the next meaningful catalyst.
15:30 — Soybeans – China did not provide the additional demand catalyst bulls were hoping for, and Kevin remains interested in owning beans on a deeper pullback.
32:30 — Wheat – Black Sea disruption still has not translated into the U.S. export demand many expected, making major rallies opportunities to consider extending producer pricing farther out.
