The Cycle: Jackson Holliday, Pitcher Injuries, & Buy Low Sell High (Ep. 3)

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Speaker 1: Hello, everybody, Welcome into the cycle. I am Ryan Warmley, joined by Mike Mayer. As always, it is our weekly fantasy baseball podcast here on the Fantasy Pros podcast network. I am really excited because we got.
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Speaker 2: The Jackson Holiday debut.
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Speaker 1: We will be talking much more about Jackson Holiday later on in the show with Chris Welsh, who was kind enough to join the show. We actually spoke with him yesterday to let everybody know we were recording this on Thursday, April eleventh. We spoke with him on the tenth before Holiday's debut, but you know, kind of in the wake of the announcement that he would be making his debut, so we did. We're not aware of what his first game looked like when we talked with Welsh, but we did a lot of big picture stuff about what this means for the Orioles, for fantasy, for everything, so be sure to check that out.
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Speaker 2: Really good conversation with Welch later in the show.
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Speaker 1: But I am still buzzing even though he went hitless, because Jackson Holiday is now an oriole So mayor thank you for bearing with my excitement with this promotion.
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Speaker 3: No problem. Are you at all concerned that he can't catch.
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Speaker 2: He's new to the position of second base, and.
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Speaker 1: That ball that you're referred to should have been called an outfielder should have called him off. So I'm going to give him a pass on as a twenty year old kid in making his debut at Fenway Park. So we'll go ahead and be kinda Jackson there. For everybody listening, I do want to remind them that if they like this content, the best free way to show their support and encourage more content like this is to leave a positive review at fantasypros dot com slash MLB review. And if when leaving your review, even if it's not a full five stars, if you ask a question in your review, Mayor and I will be sure to answer it on next week's episode. That is a great way to make sure that any specific questions to your team and roster and league can get answered on the show. We will happily do that if it's left in a review. Let's go into rounding the bases. We're going to start with the conversation that really dominated the last week and largely the early part of the season, and that's pitcher injuries. I mean, just in the last week, I don't know the exact dates and all these, but I believe this is all since we last recorded. We had the Spencer Stryder injury, we had Shane Bieber, we had Franber Valdez on the fifteen day, il Nick Pavetta not even to mention the preseason guys like what we saw with Garrett Cole and spring training, Kyle Bradish, you know, still on a rehab. These are like fantasy aces to varying degrees, and it doesn't seem like it's slowing down. So my first question, really, Freemayor, is are you among the group that says this is a result of the pitch clock. Are you among the group that says this has really just been going on for like the last decade and it's just yet another year.
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Speaker 2: Is it a fluke?
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Speaker 1: I mean, like from the larger perspective, before we get into these individual arms, what is your takeaway from just this just gluttony of pitcher injuries.
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Speaker 3: Well, first off, we also Josiah Gree you know, yeah, he's the same I.
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Speaker 2: Was gonna ask.
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Speaker 1: I was like, I was writing down the names and I'm sure I'm gonna forget some because there's too many of them.
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Speaker 2: Yes, Gray is another one.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, no disrespect to Jonziah Gray for forgetting him.
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Speaker 3: I'm not I know, like the early.
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Speaker 4: Like outrage was the pitchclock stuff. I'm especially from like the Blairers Union. I'm not a pitchclock is the problem. Guy. They weren't even using the full like limit of the pitchclock last season. I'm sure it's not helping an already existing problem. I'm also not of the mindset that like this has been going on forever, even though some of the numbers do kind of indicate that, like they're you know, it's been trending like this over the last ten years. I think it's getting worse, and I think it's what a lot of people have already said. It's the max effort stuff, just like max effort all the time. With like Shane Bieber, he was like consciously trying to improve his velocity this season and then boom, He's hurt. And it seemed like he kind of got hurt like out of nowhere. But he said like through his first two starts he was like pitching through pain, and it was after like an offseason program where he was like consciously working on lcity and then boom, hurt.
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Speaker 3: I think Nick Pavetta did did something similar. There was quotes right after he got hurt, and it sounds like his injury like fingers crossed might not be that bad, it might be more like precautionary, but like he had the same thing where he you know, he started working out earlier this offseason and started focusing on like pushing He even there was even a quote where he said something like, I'm going to push myself further. I push my body further. And then of course he's hurt too. So I really think that's a big part of it. I'm sure like everything is adding up to what we're seeing, but.
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Speaker 2: The state of pitching, you know, as a whole.
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Speaker 1: And by the way, I tend to agree with you that it's not like a direct correlation based on the pitch clock or anything like that. You know, there's been a lot of talk about, you know, how this goes back to youth baseball, and you know, the the max effort stuff that you're referring to is starting at younger and younger ages. As you know, kids try to build up their velocity.
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Speaker 2: You know, in high school, even even younger in some case.
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Speaker 1: I mean it's I can remember playing little league growing up, and I wasn't really a pitcher, but you know, everybody would kind of get their chance to throw an inning here or there, you know, in just little league whatever, and we were like not allowed to throw curveballs or anything other than essentially a fastball because it was like, you're just like, we can't risk it. And this was like not as a seven year old, this is as like a you know, thirteen year old that they are league was like you're not, You're actually not allowed.
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Speaker 2: Well, like we will call it a ball no matter what if you throw something like that.
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Speaker 1: So like it is something that has become more and more prevalent. Obviously, you know, I'm not going to sit here and claim to be like a doctor or anything like that, but I think that's that certainly seems to me like the most likely cause the state of pitching, you know, as a whole.
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Speaker 2: When you look at the guys that are currently healthy.
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Speaker 1: I mean, how many how many aces are there right now where it's like you just you know what, you're getting no doubt about it, Like like I'm not talking about guys that you're technically ranking like SP nine or.
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Speaker 2: But like the actual like true.
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Speaker 1: You know, in your mind's eye, fantasy ace it's like Corburn Burns, Zach Wheeler, and then like how many other names are even on that list?
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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, it's It's funny you say that too, because I was working this week on our and you can see it on the site now, on our Fantasy Baseball player trade chart, and I was actually talking with our dev and our data team about the values and how they're adjusted. And there's there's some logic in there, you know, there's a lot that goes into it's very complicated, very much over my head that I was talking to them about the logic because someone like Corburn Burns, I think when we first ran the values and everything, he was kind of sitting at like twentieth overall, and I was really struggling with like, should he be higher because he's like the last standing ace or should he be lower because all pitchers are inherently dangerous now? And I wasn't really sure which way it should go.
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Speaker 1: We kind of touch this a little in the conversation with Welsh when talking about the trade value for an elite prospect like Jackson Holiday.
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Speaker 2: But but I'll.
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Speaker 1: Make the same comparison now that we dive into a little bit later. It's like it's like running backs in football, where in redraft maybe that's it might be the most valuable position you can be good at, but in dynasty, like there's just so much risk long term. So what do you do with a guy like Spencer Strider in a dynasty format? I mean, obviously he drops, but this was the clear number one pitcher in baseball, both like real baseball and fantasy and now this long term injury and a you don't you don't you never know how guys are gonna recover, like even settings, even setting aside the uncertainty of how well they recover, and.
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Speaker 3: This is a pretty good one. This is his second time, and it's.
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Speaker 2: A great point.
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Speaker 1: It's not the first time he's gone through this, but even setting that aside, just the delay in having him for a year plus, I mean, like, how do you evaluate not just you know, some Joe Schmoe gets hurt, like like you know, jaziagree is not a Joshma. I'm just sasing because I forgot to say earlier, not even setting you know, a good picture, but an elite guy who's now going through this major injury, how are you evaluating him in a long term format.
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Speaker 4: I really struggle with it with you know, especially with my overall Dynasty strategy, and unfortunately, I feel like I've been dealing with it more and more the last couple of years. I don't have Spencer Strider in Dynasty. I do have Shane Bieber in Dynasty, and so now I'm kind of stuck there. I also have Walker Buehler, who's still working his way back from injury. I have Tyler Glass now in a league. I have Shane McClanahan. And it's like, I almost like those top level pictures in a lot of Dynasty formats are so valuable that you almost can't sell low on them. You just have to just either hope you have the eyel spots or you just have to eat the dead roster spot for as long as as long as you can, which is what I've done. I haven't really sold low on any of these guys. So I'm talking through this and giving myself the answer of.
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Speaker 3: What I would do.
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Speaker 4: I guess what I would do is what I've been doing, is I just eat it. I just you know, they're so valuable and it would hurt too much to sell low on them unless you're really in a win now window and you need to In that case, I would have to see what I can get for them. And even but even now it's so early in the season, you're probably not going to find a great trade partner unless you find a team that came into the season already kind of looking to like not compete and rebuild for next year.
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Speaker 1: I'm looking right now at our rest of season rankings, and I'm only looking at folks who have updated their rankings within the last week. And it's Corner Burns that one, Zach Wheeler to Luis Castillo, Pablo Lopez, Tyler glass Now, Kevin Gosman, George Kirby is SP seven in the consensus rankings, and he's been awful to start the season outside of that first start. I mean, it's really like Zach Gallon, Yamamoto, Scoo Ball, I mean, it's really like even the guys who haven't, like glass Now just had a fourteen strikeout start, like like obviously a ton of talent, like a guy that we were like truly after Burns and Wheeler, there's nobody that I'm like, I feel really really good about this person being my best pitcher on my roster. It's a lot of guys where it's like I'm gonna feel excellent if they're my sp two. But like just emotionally, I'm like, I don't look at these names and think, oh, George Kirby, I have one of the best starting pitcher ones that anybody could have in my league. And obviously there is a consensus reking, so different people might evaluate these guys differently, but it's really just like remarkable before we move on, like, do you have any other kind of larger takeaways just from the state of pitching in general or anything on any of these specific guys. I mean, not all of them are out, you know, for the season necessarily got like Framber, you know, right is fifteen day il Kyle bradish I mentioned is like, you know, something that happened in spring training or really before spring training is making rehab starts.
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Speaker 2: Now there's still some uncertainly around Garrett Cole.
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Speaker 1: So these guys that are not out for the whole season, do you expect them to step back into ace like roles once they're back on the bumps.
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Speaker 4: So one thing answering that from a fantasy perspective, One thing I've I've thought lot about over the last few days is one two things. One for me is this gonna like, am I going to adjust my fantasy draft strategy going forward? And two is everybody going to adjust their fantasy draft strategy going forward? Because I felt like this year, for whatever reason, I kind of wanted maybe it was just a pitching landscape. I liked the top, the top, top tier of pitching, and I didn't love that kind of like second and third tier of pitching. But I did like that fourth tier of and like getting into like the you know, the sp like twenty to forty range and even after that. So I founded in a lot of myself in a lot of drafts, like trying to draft one of those aces early, waiting for four or five rounds and then hitting three or four more. And I almost wonder like, am I ever going to do that again? Or am I going to do that the next few years? Is it worth a first round pick on someone on an ACE? Just given the injuries we've seen, And I don't know, I feel like I'm probably gonna go hitting heavy next season just as a reactionary move.
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Speaker 1: I feel like I remember, like when I was first getting into fantasy baseball in high school, and like the general consensus that I was reading at the time, and you know, we would always take a spring break trip and in the airport that would be when I would go buy the Fantasy Baseball magazine. I'd buy like all every single version that they had in the airport.
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Speaker 2: Now that would just be what I did on the plane.
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Speaker 1: And you know, I remember the kind of strategy consensus at the time was that you could wait on pitching because there were pictures that would pop up late and it wasn't even an injury thing. It was just like it was better to go hitting early and wait on pitching. And then I feel like, as it has become harder to have these true workhorse aces, as you know, the number of innings these guys throws goes down and as strikeouts go up, so you need them to compete, and you know, I feel like it's becoming quite cyclical. And you're right, it might kind of start to circle back the old direction where you do wait, but not because you can just find anybody, but because it's just too risky. I mean, certainly in a dynasty or keeper format, I just don't know how you could possibly value any pitcher on the same level as the elite hitters, even even in format I play in a very deep keeper league with you know, it's head to head points, and you it's better to be good at pitching than to be good at hitting in that league, just the way the scoring is. But the best teams are the ones that have a Kunya and Bobby Waitt and Rookie Betts and you know, Naron Judge the year he goes off, because there's just a certainty there and it's just so hard to know you're year, uh, you know, who's gonna actually stay healthy on the mound. Let's go to the speaking of, you know, being injured from a pitching perspective. Let's talk a little bit more about Otani and it's not actually about his performance, but just kind of the latest roundup we had earlier today, some news about just some of the numbers that have gone on with his trans later who actually is you know, officially being charged with you know, theft of more than sixteen million dollars, so like four times what had.
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Speaker 2: Been initially been thrown out as a number.
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Speaker 1: I'll let you just kind of run through some of these some of these headlines here.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, So we're recording this on Thursday afternoon, about an hour or two after the latest news came out with with Otani's interpreter and kind of the deal he's working with. He's basically admitting to everything, which you can get into your own conspiracy theories of whether or not he's taken the fall. It certainly looks like he's extremely guilty of some really bad things in addition to being an atrocious sports better. But it said he made over nineteen thousand bets. He bet nearly one hundred and eighty three million dollars, lost one hundred and forty two mi million dollars for a net loss of over forty million dollars. Originally, when it came out, it said he stole about four and a half million from Otani, and everyone was like, how is it possible that you could not notice this? It turns out he stole more than sixteen million dollars from Otani and went as far as to impersonate Otani to bank employees turn off like notifications for Otani's bank accounts, so he wasn't even being notified of like transactions, and like Mike might, this is like a dumb question that I just put out there on Twitter because I'm trying to like wrap my head around it. Because you see the net loss of over forty million dollars and it says he stole more than sixteen million dollars. And I'm sure there's like some math that can account for this. But when I see a net loss of forty million dollars and you stole twenty or stole sixteen million dollars, I feel like twenty four million dollars is math, and where does that come from?
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Speaker 1: Maybe the twenty four million Otani actually did like load him to help out a thread, and then he paid.
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Speaker 2: It was like I need more. I don't know.
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Speaker 4: Some people have said, like, that's like what he reinvested, but I feel like the net loss is already accounting for what you've reinvested.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say.
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Speaker 3: I'm not a math person, so I could if he.
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Speaker 2: Really wanted to track how this stuff works.
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Speaker 1: I hope he was sinking his bets with the betting pros app and maybe if he was, he might have learned some of his trends and stopped buying the sports that we're doing so well. So let that be a lesson everybody. Download the betting pros app and you won't lose forty million dollars.
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Speaker 3: Great point.
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Speaker 4: It also is worth noting out that he still despite nineteen thousand bets zero bets on baseball that they've shown, which is wild.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's really like, I wonder if that part is just hidden.
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Speaker 1: I mean it, Yeah, it seems really hard to me that you could you could be the type of person who could lose tens of millions of dollars of not even your own money, make that many bets and not bet on this sport at which you have the best intel, Like, because I just I just don't think you can do these numbers and not be like a degenerate, which sometimes people say is like a very friendly turn. And by the way, I'm kind of like laughing through all this, it's just because of how crazy these numbers are.
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Speaker 2: And I'm serard.
00:17:14
Speaker 1: Obviously this is like a deep betrayal of Otani by a close friend that he trusted. Like it's not funny that a crime was committed, a serious, serious crime, but it's.
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Speaker 4: Also not funny in the sense that this is more than like degenerate and like that this is an addiction.
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Speaker 3: Yes, someone who was addicted.
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Speaker 1: Well, and that's my point is, if you're addicted, how are you not betting on baseball? Like I think I saw one of the texts that came out was, oh, he you know he was betting on soccer because it's on all the time. Baseball is on every day for six months and you're around it. And I mean, I I'm sure the investigation will bring out as much truth as it can. It is hard for me to wrap my head around somebody having this much of an addiction, which is which is a serious there's like, you know, a chemical component in your brain to addiction. I'm not like trying to dump on the guy. It's really hard for me to imagine having this level of an addiction and yet still having the wherewithal to say, I'm not going to bet on baseball because I have my limits. It seems like there are no limits when you're losing literally tens of millions of dollars of not your own money. But ultimately from the fantasy perspective, it's probably a good thing for Otani because it certainly seems to clear up more so that yes, this was actually a betrayal and not somebody taking the fall.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, it certainly looks like everything is coming out to point him as like an absolute victim. There's even like one message that's been because this stuff is like still coming out and people are pouring through the pages and pages of documents from this investigation that are being made public. And one of the text messages is from the the bookmaker who ran the you know, this illegal operation, couldn't get in touch with Miserhara, the interpreter, and was like stock him and he's like, hey, I see Otani walking his dog right now. I'm going to go go up to him and like talk to him about this because you won't call me back.
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Speaker 3: Like they're at level of how far this goes is insane.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, And there was that other text that was like the bookie.
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Speaker 2: One of them was.
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Speaker 1: Something along the lines of like, I know you didn't steal it technically, but I'm like seeing the reports and he goes he goes, well, technically I did steal it.
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Speaker 2: Oh my gosh.
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Speaker 1: Again just laughing because of the absurdity, not because of the crime itself or because of the addiction itself, which which is a sickness.
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Speaker 2: Anything else quickly on the Otani stuff or.
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Speaker 3: No, I think we can keep moving.
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Speaker 4: The good news is it's from a fantasy perspective, it seems like he's going to be in the clay. It's gonna be no suspension this year or next year as far as we know based on the latest information.
00:19:50
Speaker 1: Yeah, I want to do a section here in round of the basis on some of the struggling stars in baseball.
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Speaker 2: And I listed five names here.
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Speaker 1: If there's any names that you thought were worthy of mentioning in addition to this, you know that's fine. I'll start with the biggest one, which is Ronald Acunya. It's been noted in a few places that he does not have a barrel this season on stat cast. You know, his barrel percentage the last several years thirteen percent, fifteen percent, twenty twelve cent, fifty percent, zero percent. This year literally does not have one. It's still early, which I'll say with all of these, but you know, that's kind of why I want to address to what degree are we worried about any of these guys. You know, the expected slugging percentage way way way way down. I mean last year was six sixty. This year so far it's two forty nine. Expected batting average last year three fifty seven this year to ten. You know, the hard hit rate is way down. The strikeout rate is up, second highest of his career, walk rate also second highest of his career. But even just looking like on his stat cast page, it's a lot of blue and Akuni is the type of guy where it's mostly red. So again we're now, you know, seven, this is seven seasons into his career, obviously coming off one of the great eight fantasy seasons of all time. You know, consent, You've never seen a more consensus number one overall pick in drafts than Acuna was.
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Speaker 2: This year.
00:21:08
Speaker 1: He was setting records in salary cap formats or how much he was going for. To what degree And the answer is obviously not going to be a hundred out of one hundred, But to what degree are you concerned about? Hey, I invested a lot into Acunya and this is what I'm getting so.
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Speaker 4: Far, I'm not that concerned, you know, not to go back to like a previous conversation where we said, like, you know, the concern level is not zero, but it's it's close to zero, just just because of how early it is and because of the track record. It's different when you're talking about you know, maybe a second year player or like someone who just recently broke out, but we've seen what he can be.
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Speaker 3: And you know, like even even before last year's absolutely absurd season in twenty nineteen, he hit forty one home runs and in other years. In twenty twenty one, even in only eighty two games, he hit twenty four home runs, and he has already stolen four bases, so he's at least giving you some stolen bases. The bad ball numbers are are not good, they look really bad, but you just have to think he's just you know, a level of player who's going to turn it around, especially as like you know, you don't want to like be be cliche, but like you know, it's still very early in April, the weather's cold in all these places, like it's going to start heating up, and he just you know, there's there's no way you're like selling low on a on Acunya, or there's no there's no way you're gonna AIBLD to buy a low on Acunya just because of what you said. Like he was the consensus number one overall pick, except in some you know, certain like high stakes leagues where the other one number one overall pick was Spencer Strider and at that point be happy you took Acunya and at Spencer Strider at this point, so not very concerned, but the numbers are bad enough that it, you know, it catches your eye.
00:22:48
Speaker 1: Would you trade like, maybe not Mookie because he started off so strong, but like a like a Bobby Wit for Acunya if you had the opportunity to do so, where it's like you're not it doesn't like you're technically buying low relative to what draft compensation was, but like you're still giving up an elite first round asset. Would you do that and say, I still believe Acuna is going to be the number one player in fantasy going forward?
00:23:12
Speaker 3: Would I give up Acuna or acquire.
00:23:15
Speaker 1: Would you acquire a Kunya by giving up a guy that you drafted like fifth overall who's having a good start to the season, like a Wit or a Mookie.
00:23:24
Speaker 4: I feel like I would. Yeah, I feel like I would. I would still take the swing on a Kunya's ceiling.
00:23:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, I wish, I wish it was a bit more bad luck, but I had a bald data is really bad lasting on a Cunya quickly because there's a couple other names. Want to get to any concerns at all about like just like lingering effects from he was, you know, had some injury question marks in spring training a bit. Is any concern that that might be what's causing this.
00:23:47
Speaker 4: I don't love that, but the fact that he's running makes me feel a little bit better about that.
00:23:52
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's fair.
00:23:54
Speaker 1: I want to ask about another very talented outfielder, Julugo Rodriguez.
00:23:59
Speaker 2: Has It's been abysmal. He's below the Mendoza lines.
00:24:02
Speaker 1: Batting average is one ninety six, zero home runs so far this season. He's got two barrels so far, for whatever that's worth. And it's just again like a lot of a lot of blue on a stat cast page. And the battleball data is not good. Hard hit percentage is very low. It was over fifty percent the last two seasons. It's at thirty nine percent right now. Strikeout rate is way up, walk rate slightly down. I mean somebody who is just really really struggling right now.
00:24:31
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:24:32
Speaker 4: The only thing that kind of gives me hope there is we saw a lot of similar things last year. He got off to a slow start last year, and he's that's kind of been his thing as like getting off to a slow start. And I know I rostered him a bunch last year, and I actually, despite how well I did in the rankings, I think I had him possibly as my number one consensus player ranked last year and not any but despite that, still finished very accurately. But yeah, I did have him in a lot of plays, So I paid a lot attention to how slow he started last season. And it wasn't this bad that it wasn't good. And he's not someone who has the same kind of track record as Akunya, and but he's also a lot younger and we've seen two really good seasons from him, and he's kind of had these slow starts before it, So like kind of same answer, I'm I'm fully expecting him to turn it around and you know, just have this be like a slow start.
00:25:21
Speaker 1: Would you rather pay a large amount to acquire Julio or trade him for what a large amount? Like not not by low, not you know, not sell low. Would you rather like I would I don't want to say by high because he's not playing well, but would you rather pay a fair like premium price for him or sell him for a fair premium price right now.
00:25:44
Speaker 3: I'd rather acquire him right now.
00:25:46
Speaker 2: I think that's fair.
00:25:47
Speaker 1: Another guy who started off slow last year and it's starting off slow this year is Gunnard Henderson. He's hitting two thirty three on base percentage just a little over three hundred. He is running, he's got three steals, and he has two homers, so he's giving you some up there. He does have a high hard hit rate. We don't even spend a lot of time on him. I watch a lot of ools baseball. He is hitting the ball very hard into a lot of gloves. He had the hardest hit ball in the game yesterday before Westburg hit the three run homer and it just went right to the second basement. I mean, I feel like he's getting unlucky. But his launch angle is not like lower than it was last year. In fact, it's higher than it was last year. A lot of the badball data is actually fairly good. I brought him up because he started slow last year and because because the actual rate stats are quite bad right now. Maybe you disagree, but I think this is a case of bad luck and it's going to turn around.
00:26:34
Speaker 4: Yeah, I would say I have, you know, the same almost kind of the same answer. I rostered a lot of Gunner Henderson last year. I remember the slow start very well because of what it did to me in some renal leagues. But like you said, he's even less concerning because there aren't any bad ball concerns there. His hard hit rate is almost fifty percent almost fifty percent, and he's hitting.
00:26:55
Speaker 3: Right at the top of that lineup, the very good lineup.
00:26:57
Speaker 4: My only concern would be if he starts us for a long period of time, they have no reason to keep him at the top of the lineup, even though I think they will. But it's like if he goes into like a prolong slump and you know, someone like Jackson Holliday gets you know, crazy hot, they can flip them in the order, but you can kind of say that about anyone.
00:27:13
Speaker 3: So I wouldn't be that concerned.
00:27:15
Speaker 1: And also I don't think they would flip them like I think if they were to move like let's say Holiday or in the Ludoff spot, they're moving Gunner to like three or four. They're not going to move him to like eight or nine. So I have no concerns about the lineup or situation that he'll be in either Pete Alonzo obviously, you know, historically a power hitter, the second percentage four thirty eight.
00:27:35
Speaker 2: This season, you know, he's hitting two twenty nine.
00:27:38
Speaker 1: He does have three home runs, some blue, some red on the stat cast page, which is kind of just an easy, you know, catch all to use the colors, you know, Kunya, it's all blue Alonzo, you know, sweet spot percentage, barrel rate are fairly good. The rest is pretty bad. Twelve percentile and hard hit rate which is obviously like pretty eye pop at just twenty five percent compared to over forty percent every other year of his career. He's also striking out a bit at a higher rate than than typically.
00:28:10
Speaker 2: But any thoughts on Alonso, I feel like this is just.
00:28:14
Speaker 4: Kind of who he is. You're going to get, you know, streaks out of him. And I remember talking to someone right before the start of the season in our discord fantaspros dot com slash chat, which you should join and talk with us, and that was more about like whether or not I was willing to pay his price on draft day, and in most cases I wasn't, just because like the power numbers are obviously insane. He hit forty six on runs last year forur to the year before, but as in twenty twenty two, they came with the two seventy one batting average. Last year came with a two seventeen batting average, and there was a really low babit last year. But he's not really someone you can pay attention to Babbitt just because of the power and the you know, the launch angle and that stuff. But there's always going to be like and we've seen like throughout his career, like one year he batted two thirty one and you know that was a shortened and then like he was around like two sixty and then now he's last year was to seventeen.
00:29:04
Speaker 3: I feel like you're just going to see what a power hitter like he is.
00:29:07
Speaker 4: Like the approach that he has, You're gonna see those kind of like batting average kind of streaks, the.
00:29:13
Speaker 3: Powers that was going to be there.
00:29:14
Speaker 4: Like like you said, like even with like some some kind of like un some bad of all data that's not typical for him. He still already has three home runs in eleven games and still is on pace for you know, a ton of home runs. I just think you're going to see some of this batted ball and batting average fluctuation just because of who he.
00:29:31
Speaker 2: Is last guy I wanted to hit on.
00:29:34
Speaker 1: Here is somebody that you actually want to talk about a little bit later as well. So just quickly, Francisco Lindor. I mean he's he's batting one oh four, he has five hits this season. His ops is four to oh two, one home run, zero steals, so not giving you the power speed combo. His strikeout rate is down, but that's about the only number that looks good on his bat a ball profile page. What are your thoughts on Lindor, who I know you considered for an category.
00:30:00
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I was actually going to talk about Lindor in our by Low segment, but I thought maybe it was just too easy, and then you reminded me that we were already talking about him in this segment, So I just figured OU would talk about him here. But he's definitely a bilow for me. He's another person we've kind of seen start slow or go through an extended slump slump before, and the numbers always kind of work out.
00:30:21
Speaker 3: To be really good.
00:30:23
Speaker 4: The other thing with some of his expected numbers is, do you know who has the biggest difference between expected batting average and current patting average.
00:30:34
Speaker 2: I do not I'm gonna get one because that he.
00:30:37
Speaker 3: Was it would be Francisco Lindor.
00:30:39
Speaker 2: Oh oh, I was.
00:30:39
Speaker 1: I assume you're going to say with somebody other than Lindor and like lead into oh he's second or something.
00:30:44
Speaker 2: Actually, I definitely way to.
00:30:45
Speaker 3: Ruin my segment, but we can keep going.
00:30:48
Speaker 4: So so, yeah, he has the biggest difference between expects. His actual batting average on stack aass is point zero eight nine and expected is two forty six, And that one hundred and fifty seven point difference is the you know, not that two forty six is great, but still that difference is the biggest in all of baseball among qualifying hitters. Same thing for Wolba one ninety two. Wolba has expected Welba three twenty six, one hundred and forty four, one hundred and thirty four point difference, biggest in baseball. And I was gonna kind of ask you to guess the difference in uh Or who had the biggest difference in slugging versus expected slugging, and trick you because he has the highest of batting average and ex Weloba, but he's not the highest of expected slugging. The highest is actually my boy ty France, so we can talk about him later if you want. But he's in the top five for that category as well. So all of these expected numbers across the board, he's just massively kind of either unlucky or just like has expected numbers that should be massively, you know, enormously better. And I think you're going to see those numbers level out and there are they're Unlike Akunya and some of the other names you talked about, there are people kind of panicking about Lindor so that you can probably buy low in some leagues because I've already seen people on this asking me like should I sell Lindoor and the answers.
00:32:04
Speaker 1: Let's go to the last storyline here in round in the bases, just we had a couple of guys who are kind of the opposite of what we just talked about, who are doing better than expected. So I just earned one hitter one picture just to hit in a couple of kind of optim you know, maybe not optimistic, maybe we feel pessimistic about these guys, but guys who have kind of outperformed where they were being drafted. To start here quickly, Mike Trout, I mean, obviously superstar been around forever, has had injury problems as of late, which has led to a lot of the counting SATs being down.
00:32:35
Speaker 2: But like, we know who Mike Trout is.
00:32:37
Speaker 1: We talked about kind of being surprised where he was being drafted. I can distinctly remember you slacking me at one point in like late February or early March, being like, I'm in the middle of a draft and I couldn't believe where, you know what round he was just taken in. You know, this is Mike Trout, and he's certainly the power it's been, you know, prevalent here to start the season, you know, right at the top, you know, with the league leaders hitting like moonshots, just absolutely like Titanic Blast. Of course most of them have been solo shots, Thank you to the Angels. But do you think that this is like a return to form for Trout? He is running, you know, a bit more than he has in recent years, which is you know, particularly exciting to see. So is this like is he like back back or is it like, oh, a really nice start kind of some vintage Mike Trout here, So.
00:33:27
Speaker 4: I think I thought of a lot about this, like, you know, after I slacked here and then during draft season of you know, I expect that his you know, he's not going to be a first round pick anymore, but I was trying. I was kind of thinking, like, you know, why is he falling so far? And I think there's two main concerns with him. One is the obvious injury concerns because he's been banged up so so much, and the other was that he just doesn't run anymore. But one of those scenes to be answered in the sense that he is running. He already has two stolen bases. Not that two stolen bases is a ton, but the fact that he already is running, and that his manager has said that like he intends to run and let his play is run. That means he's massively more valuable. Not to continue using the word massively, but that means he's a lot more valuable than he was being drafted. And it's too late to buy on him because you know, he already has six home runs, despite five of them being solo shots. He just hit a two run home home run yesterday. But if he can stay healthy. And that's you know, the biggest if there is in baseball is if Mike Drout can say healthy. But if he can and he can run, which the concern there is at running more probably increases his chances of being injured, because I think that's part of the reason why I stopp running in the first place. But I mean, he's just you know, I actually put in, you know, to not to bring up betting pros again, but I actually put in a futures bet on him to win MVP yesterday.
00:34:42
Speaker 2: Oh nice.
00:34:43
Speaker 1: Also, what do you mean not to bring up betting pros again? We want people to hear about betting pros.
00:34:47
Speaker 2: This is a good point. This is a good thing. It's a nice plot.
00:34:49
Speaker 1: The other name I wanted to talk about in this section, very briefly, is much less famous than Mike ut Cody Bradford, who buddy of mine, you know, I played fantasy bass with for me many years, texted me yesterday.
00:35:01
Speaker 2: Is Cody Bradford the best pitcher in baseball? Now?
00:35:05
Speaker 1: Given all the other injuries, he may very well be. Maybe he's the guy who should be right behine, of course, he's a lot closer in baseball than he was a week ago. Yes, yes, to give you some of the stat lines of why my friend would be asking such a thing. You know, his first start of the season five innings, two runs, you know, three hits, one walk, six strikeouts. But then he faced and that was against the Cubs, and he was home against the Astros eight and two thirds innings, two hits, one run, no walks, just four strikeouts. And then against the Athletics last night, seven and two thirds, five hits, one run which was unearned, one walk, and seven strikeouts. So a really excellent start to the twenty twenty four seasons for him. So far, that comes out to a one forty era, a zero point six to two whip. He's got seventeen strikeouts in nineteen and a third innings, and of course is three to oher, which is already one win away from all of last year's total.
00:36:02
Speaker 2: So is Cody Bradford the best picture in baseball?
00:36:05
Speaker 3: Yes, no he's not. But I was looking.
00:36:09
Speaker 4: I was, you know, we were talking about him a little before the show, and I was researching him, and I was actually thinking about him for the last couple of days because there's concern that he might new stick in the rotation because they're getting Michael Lorenzen back and then eventually they're going to get shares they're into ground back. So for that reason, I was actually considering him as like a cell high candidate to talk about the fun thing about him is that his expected stats really can't seem to agree on what.
00:36:36
Speaker 3: You know.
00:36:36
Speaker 4: Again, we're talking about a very small sample size, which is why some of these expected numbers don't agree. So his ERA is one point four, his FIP is two point four to three, not that far off, you know, about a run higher is.
00:36:46
Speaker 3: What you would expect.
00:36:47
Speaker 4: His ex FIP is all the way up at four point zero six, so way higher. His Sierra splits the difference is about three point sixty three and is expected. He RA is all the way back down at one point nine too, So they're all over the board. They have no idea what to expect. They could not disagree more on his on his value. The one thing I'll say about him just looking into like because when you see kind of like pictures who haven't like broken out before, you kind of see I want to look for like what's different, Like is there something we can point to that's different. The one thing for him in addition to just seeing you know, he's always had like very good control, which is kind of how he's survived. He's throwing a curveball now, which you know he didn't really throw before, and he's not really leaning on it a ton. He's only throwing at fifteen percent of the time. But that's another pitch that he's throwing that he hasn't really used in the past. All of his other pitches are pretty much the same. He's not really using his cutter anymore, but slider's the same. Curveballs or change up the same, four seamer is the same. He really leans on his four steamer, which is interesting because he only throws it about ninety miles an hour, so to throw that almost fifty percent of the time doesn't seem like a recipe for success. But he's a cell high for me. But there are really intriguing results so far. But you know, there's there are some reasons to be concerned.
00:38:01
Speaker 1: So sell high if he's on your roster, if he's available on waivers, which he is in a good amount of places. It's not like he's available everywhere, but he is available in spots. Is he a must add if he's on the waiver wire, or is he a add if you have a spot and want to take a flyer, but like you're not really expecting this to continue.
00:38:19
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would add him.
00:38:21
Speaker 4: I think it's really league dependent, and definitely not in a shallower like ten team league.
00:38:27
Speaker 3: I think in twelve team leagues at.
00:38:30
Speaker 4: This point, especially if they have deeper rosters, you almost need to roster him just to see, you know, just to see, because there's a chance he just has a two ERA for the next two months. And even if, even if he ends up losing his spot when some of those other guys get back healthy, it's really valuable to have a good picture for a couple of months, so it behooves you to pick him up just to see what it is, even if you would consider him so high, which I do.
00:38:55
Speaker 1: Speaking of, let's get into our bi Low Sell High section. We'll move a little quicker through our Bilo Sell High and our waiver es central because we went along with Welsh talk about Jackson Holiday, which is probably my fault. Let's start with your favorite by Low and you already alluded to considering Lindor as your pick here.
00:39:15
Speaker 4: Yeah, I considered Lindor but you talked me out of it, and that felt a little bit too easy, just because of his track record.
00:39:22
Speaker 3: So my other.
00:39:24
Speaker 4: By Low is someone I've actually seen people on discord talk about dropping, which I don't think you should do yet. And that's Christian and Carnacian Strand, and he's someone I was really targeting in drafts this season just because he was going really late. There's a lot of power potential there. He's, you know, batting in a good lineup, in the heart of a good lineup, and in one of the most hitter friendly ballparks in baseball. Now, he's off to a slow start. He only has one home run, he's batting one fifty four. But there are reasons to be encouraged here. One of those reasons is that he has some pretty good expected numbers. He's still batting in the middle of that order that you know, they obviously haven't given up on him. It's a really small sample size, and it's kind of like the Pelons. I think you can't really rely on Babbit for like a you know, a power guy that doesn't have a ton of speed, but his babbub is one eighty nine, So that's not helping and he's just someone who and we talked about, you know, those expected difference numbers with Lindor same thing fancarnosion Strand is expected batting average is one hundred points higher than his current batting average, his expected his slugging number is two fifty, his expected slugging is forty seven, and similar numbers in WILBA. His current welba's one eighty three expected is three thirteen, which three thirteen is still not great, but it's a heck couple lot better than one eighty three, And so there are encouraging expected numbers there, and he still has a ton of power potential and it's just way too early in the season to give up on him, even though he's a younger guy without the same kind of track record that we've talked about with some of those other players.
00:40:58
Speaker 1: My pick in uh to let everybody know, I in an effort to kind of highlight some of our other writers on the site, I wanted to pick sort of my favorite by low Sell High candidates from our bilow Sell High article that gets dropped on Wednesdays on Fantasypros dot com, So everybody should go check that out. Our writer is Brett Usury. I believes how to pronounce his name. I apologize if I'm getting that wrong. Brett Usury uh So shouts to Brett for writing the article every week. We appreciate the work he's doing. I'm gonna pick my favorite of his choices in the article. My favorite Bylow this week was Tristan Cassas, who is a guy that I drafted in a lot of places. I thought he was undervalued. H you know, during during draft season this year, as Brett points out, you know, the numbers have not quite been good. Although after he wrote the article, he actually did hit a home run yesterday. It was a bit of a cheapy, you know, fly ball that would have been out in a lot of places, and he somehow sneaks over.
00:41:57
Speaker 2: A little bit.
00:41:57
Speaker 3: I definitely would have been out in Baltimore.
00:41:59
Speaker 1: Oh my god, it would have been out by about forty feet in Baltimore. And and you know, and looking more at the stat cast numbers too, like a lot of the expected stats are actually fairly similar as last year. Expected batting averages like five points lower than it was last year. Hard hit rate is like down by up percentage, strike out rate up, but just a little bit walk right down just a little bit. The real thing is, you know, the exit velosity has been down a little a couple of miles per hour, and the launch angle last year is fifteen point seven degrees.
00:42:30
Speaker 2: It's eight this year.
00:42:32
Speaker 1: So I expect that to change as we get He's also been playing in a lot of parks that are not really conducive to you know, hitting, not necessarily like full on pitchers parks. So the couple have been but you know, they only just had their home opener earlier this week, so it's been a lot of road games to start the season.
00:42:48
Speaker 2: He's only twenty four.
00:42:50
Speaker 1: He's somebody that I think you actually can trade for because he wasn't going as like a top five first basement on draft day. He was good last year, but it wasn't the type of breakout where everybody who has him is like an absolute believer and will never get rid of him. I think he's attainable, he's young, he's talented. I think better days are to come compared to the first couple weeks of the season. He's somebody that I was in on, you know, in February March, so I continue to be in on him. I think that's a good call by Brett. Who is your cell high?
00:43:18
Speaker 4: So my cell high is Jose Burrios. And it's for a lot of the opposite reasons we were just talking about. For some of these Bylows, his his current numbers are very good and his expected numbers are very bad. And his ERA is one point four to five. Most of his expected era numbers are closer and closer to four. Case Sierra is five point five to seven. His let's see, if you go to stodcast and look at era versus expected era, his expected RA is more than four runs higher than his current RA. And that is a massive difference. And again we're talking, you know, everything we talked about in the first few weeks of the season, we have to you know, include the caveat that these are really small sample sizes, and so especially when you get into like advance it's numbers, it's really hard to lean on him that hard just because we're talking about really small to make up smpathize. So but with that caveat, his expected ERA is more than four runs higher. No one else, no one else has more than two and a half runs higher. So he's just like getting incredibly lucky and even though his numbers last year were fine, like one hundred and eighty four strike guys, one hundred and eighty nine two thirds innings ERA of three point sixty five, expected numbers were more between four four and a half. I just think with people desperate for pitching, and with his hot start, you can really sell high on someone like Jose Brios when and this is something I've talked about with with Dan Harris the last couple of years of someone it just feels like whenever you roster like Jose Brios, even though the numbers other than twenty twenty two tend to like end up being fine, he just has these blow up starts that like if you're in the head to head league, they just kill you for the week. And I just know some of those are coming, especially playing in the Al East, And with these expected numbers, you're gonna be able to sell him likely, especially for you know, with what's happening to pitching right now, with his hot start, you're gonna be able to sell him for a lot more than he's you know, technically worked.
00:45:08
Speaker 1: My favorite cell high from this week's article is Hunter Green, and it, as Brett points out in the article. It seems kind of crazy given the state of pitching right now and all the injuries. But speaking of a picture that I'm not necessarily that much of a believer in staying healthy for the season.
00:45:23
Speaker 2: It's Hunter Green.
00:45:24
Speaker 1: We talk about these, you know guys, was throwing with the crazy velocity. Nobody has better velocity than Green. He's going to give you strikeouts when he's on the mound, that's for sure. He already had his worst start of the season last night. Again, after Brett's article came out yesterday, I picked Green as my choice before He gave up six earned runs in yesterday's game.
00:45:43
Speaker 2: So his ERA is now up over four.
00:45:46
Speaker 1: The FIP is actually lower than his ERA, but it's still at almost four. It's three ninety three is his FIP and his ERA is four eight six. Again, I know you're gonna get strikeouts, and he has had two decent starts Arder to start the season.
00:46:02
Speaker 2: He doesn't play in a great ballpark for pitching.
00:46:04
Speaker 1: Obviously, the team is not good enough that I expect him to win a ton of games this season. I don't think. And again, just health like, He's just not somebody that I'm going to feel like I generally am going to trust like heh, you're going to get a solid one hundred and ninety innings at one hundred Green.
00:46:20
Speaker 2: Maybe you do.
00:46:21
Speaker 1: And I would love to see it because I like the kid and he's talented. But but he was my favorite of the Cell Highs. This week, let's go to waivers Central Mayor, who is your favorite hitter to pick up off waivers right now?
00:46:33
Speaker 3: So my favorite hitter is Michael Bush. He's only rostered in twenty two percent of Yahoo leagues. He's now first base and third base eligible. He came in the end of the year eligible at third base. He's now he's consistently playing every day at first base, so he's now eligible at first base.
00:46:47
Speaker 4: Yeah, he already has. He just hit a second home run of the season, so he has two home runs. He's batting two seventy.
00:46:52
Speaker 3: Uh.
00:46:52
Speaker 4: He's someone who didn't come into the season with a lot of buzz just because he had a He had a really good twenty twenty three in Triple A with the Dodgers. But when he came up with the Dodgers, he played twenty seven games and it was not pretty. He bat a one sixty seven with two home runs, a strikeout rate of over thirty three percent, and so for that reason, I think there was some questions about, you know, whether or not he would play every day with the Cubs and whether and just how vould he would be in fantasy. But I think there's a real likelihood that we get a breakout, a breakout here. Like I said, he hit twenty seven home runs in only ninety eight games in Triple A last year. It seems like the Cubs are just going to let him play, and so far, so good. His walk rat is over thirteen percent, strikeout rate is down to twenty five percent. You still would like it to be less than twenty five percent, but it's still a lot lower than the thirty thirty.
00:47:38
Speaker 3: Percent last year.
00:47:39
Speaker 4: He's hit in the ball hard, he's sitting the ball in the air, and I think there's power potential for you know, over twenty five home runs here, and he's essentially free on waivers right now, and from what we've seen in the early going, he's been hitting like fifth or sixth in the Cubs lineup. And if you can get that kind of like especially with like first base, third base eligibility, both of those positions are the deepest this year. If you can add someone like Michael Bush to your bench, who in daily leagues you can rotate in, or even in weekly leagues you can rotate into your corner spots, there's a lot of value there, with a lot of potential, especially if you need power.
00:48:12
Speaker 2: My favorite hitter to pick up is MJ. Melendez.
00:48:15
Speaker 1: And this is specific to ESPN leagues because in Yahoo has cat your eligibility, so he's rostered in over eighty percent of leagues. But in other formats where he's not catcher eligible, which is most other places, I think he's a great pickup.
00:48:29
Speaker 2: We know he has power.
00:48:30
Speaker 1: He hasn't necessarily demonstrated that at the big league level yet, but he had a forty home run season in the miners a few years ago.
00:48:36
Speaker 2: He is hitting the absolute crap out of the ball.
00:48:40
Speaker 1: If you look at his stat Patch stat Cast page, it looks like Acunya is from last year. It is so red in every single category he is. He's top three percent of the league in exsit velocity, he's top two percent of the league in expected slugging, top three percent of the league in wOBA, top three percent of the league in x wOBA, top six percent of the league an x will butacan, which is just a fun stat to say. And his hard hit rate is fifty seven percent. That's the ninety fifth percent stile.
00:49:08
Speaker 2: So he is.
00:49:09
Speaker 1: He's hitting the cover off the ball. He's batting three twenty five. He has three home runs this season. He has one fewer walk than strikeout this year. Is ops is over eleven hundred. I don't He's not gonna be the best hitter in baseball this season, right, I mean, I'm not saying that, but the BATA ball profile supports the fact that his bat has been really strong to start the year. The Royals have been better than expected to start the year, the lineup has been better than expected around him to start the year. He's only twenty five years old. Again, we know there's a degree of pedigree here given what we saw, especially in that twenty twenty one season in the minors. Even if he's only outfield eligible, I think he's a no brainer pickup given what the data looks like.
00:49:48
Speaker 2: What do you think about Melendez?
00:49:50
Speaker 4: Yeah, he's someone I think we may have talked about him a couple weeks ago as someone I ended up drafting him in a league where I really needed some outfielders.
00:49:58
Speaker 3: And yeah, like, like you said, even at the time.
00:50:01
Speaker 4: His batted ball data was really good and it's only gotten better from there. So coming into the end of the year, I was a little skeptical before my last draft, and I really needed him. And you know, somehow rostering a player helps you feel better about them, because I was like I was wondering. I was worried, like, are we just overvaluing him because of the catcher eligibility thing, because you know, we saw this guy of where you know, like you could kind of especially like in a league this year where he's catcher eligible and not playing catcher like, oh, that's incredibly valuable. You get this guy every day playing every day, is not catching. But then I was almost wondering if we were kind of like projecting him to be a little bit too much better just because he's not catching.
00:50:40
Speaker 3: But so far, so good bad at all. Data looks terrific.
00:50:44
Speaker 1: It's it's tremendous, And yeah, this is one of those things where it's not like a guy's getting lucky like he's it really it feels it's twelve games into the season, right, but it feels like like a breakout, and it's not so unusual for a guy to break out at twenty five, So I don't think he needs to be one hundred percent rostered. But I'm picking him up wherever I can, and I think twenty two percent on ESPN is far, far too low of a number.
00:51:07
Speaker 2: How about the pictures? Who are you picking up?
00:51:10
Speaker 4: So this name is another one I kind of considered as a cell high, but he's now my Waiver Central pickup out of the week. And I say that because of what we've already talked about a little bit, right, Like cell high doesn't mean bad, it just means overvalued, or you know, procede value is more than actual value. But there's also a lot to be said about short term value, and Spencer Turnbull has a lot of short term value. Through eleven innings to start the year, he has thirteen strikeouts and no runs allowed, and not a whole lot of people saw this coming, although he was pretty good in fifty across fifty innings in twenty twenty one. But you know, we're a few years removed from twenty twenty one, so it's kind of hard to rely on those numbers, especially because when last year his ear was over seven and only thirty one innings, but still over seven is bad.
00:51:57
Speaker 3: But it's hard to arre you with the early results.
00:52:00
Speaker 4: And again with what we talked about with Cody Bradford, is you look at that, you're trying to look at the numbers and look at what's different, like what could be contributing.
00:52:09
Speaker 3: To this change.
00:52:10
Speaker 4: And one thing that he's doing is throwing a sweeper now and some of that is probably his twenty twenty three slider. Depending on how different it is, it could just be now being classified as a sweeper, but it's now being classified as a sweeper. And he's whether slider or a sleeper or a sweeper, he's throwing.
00:52:26
Speaker 3: At a ton. So last year he threw his four seamer forty percent of the time and his slider twenty two percent of the time. This year he's throwing his four seamer.
00:52:33
Speaker 4: Thirty five point eight percent of the time and his sweeper thirty two percent of the time, so almost fifty to fifty four seamer sweeper, kind of leaning on both. And they actually have on stackcast a few sliders in there which are probably just miscalculated sweepers, because I doubt he's throwing a sweeper and a slider, especially because it says he's only throwing seven sliders, and if you include the sliders in there, he's actually throwing a sweeper more than his four seamers. So he's actually really leaning on this slid or sweeper, whoever you want to classify it. And he's cut down on using his sinker, which is about twenty percent last year. Now it's only ten percent. So he's really leaning on this sweeper slider combo and then sprinkling in the other offerings. He has a sinker curve ball change up just to kind of mix things up, but he's really leaning on that sweeper, and so far the results are very promising. He's getting a lot of whiffs and obviously has not allowed any runs.
00:53:23
Speaker 2: My choice here, Tyler Anderson.
00:53:25
Speaker 1: I was actually surprised to realize he was thirty four already. It just makes me feel old because I feel like I've been watching him for a few years now. There are some interesting stuff that I will highlight in the stackcast data. Having said that, if a guy in this age of pitching goes back to back seven innings, four hits, no earned runs, he had three walks total across those two starts only eight strikeouts total.
00:53:47
Speaker 2: So obviously not a guy who's gonna give you strikeouts.
00:53:49
Speaker 1: And I totally recognize if given the state of your league, that is like kind of a non starter for you, But again, given the state of pitching, everybody needs it. If a guy is throwing backpack shout out seven innings, you know, to start the season, I'm going to be interested.
00:54:04
Speaker 2: And he is. He is very available in leagues.
00:54:06
Speaker 1: He's under twenty percent in all formats. And there is some interesting stuff in the stack cast profile. The chase rate is actually really high. It's ninety seven percent stile. The wifth rate is sixty four percent sile. Maybe he strikes out, I mean at least better at the rate he's doing right now. He's not going to become like a strikeout ace for you or anything like that. But you know, the last three years were nineteen percent, nineteen percent, eighteen point nine percent. This year it's fifteen percent k rate. I think that can go up a bit. And if he continues to induce week contact. I mean, again, there's a lot of red on a stackcast page, not everywhere. Obviously, the fast fall velocity is under ninety so certainly not there. But yeah, again I get it if you need strikeouts, if your league scoring is such that you cannot have a pitcher, he doesn't strike guys out, don't bother. But if you can take value in other ways, I think Anderson's a guy that he is going to cost you absolutely nothing and you can get some value for him. Any quick thoughts on Anderson. No, let's toss it to our conversation with Welsh again. We went deep on Jackson Holiday. Really great talk with obviously a prospect expert and obviously coming from an Orioles fan.
00:55:17
Speaker 2: It was a very exciting chat with me.
00:55:18
Speaker 1: Again, this chat did take place for his debut last night, just due to scheduling, so we do not touch on his His O for four I think it was with an RBI in the Orioles Wind over the Red Sox.
00:55:31
Speaker 2: But let's kick it over to Welsh.
00:55:34
Speaker 1: Welcome back into the cycle, Mayor and I are of course joined by Chris Welsh, our friend and colleague, to talk about none other than Jackson Holiday. I am over the moon about this promotion. I was talking with pretty much anybody and everybody in my life that is an Orioles fan about you know, ranking our most exciting debuts of prospects.
00:55:57
Speaker 2: You know, we've been really blessed recently.
00:55:59
Speaker 1: But even going back to like weaders Manny Machado, of course, Adley Gunner, Grayson, like Holliday might be a better prospect than any of him. MLB pipeline, does you know their rankings every year of all of ranking their number one overall prospects against each other. I think Holiday was like fifth on that list, and one of the people ahead of him was Otani, which barely counts. So it's really like one of the you know, top four or five prospects here, you know, in the last couple of decades, Welsh, I mean, there was nobody else to bring on but you to talk about the number one overall prospect in baseball.
00:56:27
Speaker 2: Getting called up.
00:56:28
Speaker 1: I could just go on like a twenty minute soliloquy about Jackson Holliday.
00:56:30
Speaker 5: As you should.
00:56:31
Speaker 1: As you should, let's actually hear some of your expertise, though, because that's what the people are looking for.
00:56:35
Speaker 2: I mean, to what degree you're to be excited here?
00:56:37
Speaker 5: No, we should be immensely excited, you know.
00:56:40
Speaker 6: I think what makes it actually boosts it up a little bit is you take that culmination of the top prospects and he was just the one left off the table, you know. I mean he was as exciting as White Langford Enturia. They were actually the the because they were called up. They just broke the roster. Like that excitement was kind of killed. So you have this guy that you've you in the same vein that isn't being given that opportunity, that shouldn't have been sent down and absolutely dominating, not just dominated, but was a part of maybe one of the most ridiculous minor league teams we've seen in the ages between that Norfolk team with just you know, Kobe Mayo and Hester Kerstadt. Connor Norby has been going off and Jackson was right in the middle of that.
00:57:20
Speaker 5: We of course should be excited, you know.
00:57:22
Speaker 6: And I was thinking myself like when you said, of you know, the most excitement, I have a lot of clear excitements. Corbyn Carroll was clearly exciting for me. You hate to mention him, but you know, Wanda Franco at the time like that was an exciting one.
00:57:36
Speaker 5: There's a lot of those exciting.
00:57:37
Speaker 6: Ones, but you want to know the oddest one that is imprinted in my brain it's the one that I think of when you say exciting.
00:57:45
Speaker 5: And you'll never guess b j Upton, that's the one.
00:57:50
Speaker 6: I remember that being like appointment television because he was going to be one of the next big guys and prospects were starting to become even more exciting, David Rye and all these guys, and bj Upton was in this space of like, oh my gosh, the Rays, It's gonna change the future. And I remember, like maybe it was MLB Network or whatever.
00:58:10
Speaker 3: Do you remember what boss Man Junior stands for or.
00:58:17
Speaker 2: I forgetting.
00:58:19
Speaker 3: Melvin Upton?
00:58:20
Speaker 5: Melvin that's right, yeah, Melvin up there.
00:58:22
Speaker 6: And I love Justin Upton too, So obviously, like the top prospect is always really exciting.
00:58:27
Speaker 5: He is unique.
00:58:28
Speaker 6: I'll stop talking so you can ask the questions because you the question you asked was the level of excitement We should be excited because there is a ceiling and a floor if people pay attention to those terms. The floor for a guy like Jackson Holiday is I think what actually makes him so exciting, because maybe I'm setting myself up. I don't see massive downside in who he's going to be as a prospect, where some guys have this huge Ellie Daily Cruz. Maybe the biggest ceiling and biggest floor you've ever seen in anybody. Jackson Holliday's low points are so much lower than I think a lot of guys, and really what he did in the miners kind of has told that story.
00:59:06
Speaker 5: But yeah, we should be excited.
00:59:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think that's a good point.
00:59:09
Speaker 1: That's something I was saying to one of my longtime Orile friends is that you know, he doesn't he's not coming up with the flash of Amanny Machado in terms of the tools and what Manny brought to the table when he was caught up in twenty twelve. But there's just such a degree of certainty that Holiday is going to be a good player. He has been at every stop since he broke out. You know that in that draft year in twenty twenty two, when he became the NORMB one overall pick. Just just some quick I'm sure most people listening are pretty aware of Jackson Holiday, but he is the number one overall prospect in baseball on almost every scouting service.
00:59:42
Speaker 2: I don't recall.
00:59:43
Speaker 1: There's there might be a couple here and there, but pretty much Langigford Langford.
00:59:47
Speaker 6: Kind of owns the space in some like Okay, traditional baseball places have really honed in on Jackson Holiday. The fantasy people, yes, are kind of torn because I know an analyst too that likes Caimonaro Churio. Langford actually kind of took over because of him breaking camp and everything like that. But the most important is me. I have been a Jackson Holiday guy. I'm just kidding, but Jackson Hollidy has been my guy, even in the face of why at Langford being up and producing and having a most ridiculous spring you've ever seen.
01:00:20
Speaker 1: No, And that's a good point that you know, difference between kind of the fantasy rankings and the overall rankings. But even like just to get like MLB pipeline for example, he's the only guy that they have a future value of seventy on.
01:00:29
Speaker 2: Same thing with fangrafts.
01:00:30
Speaker 1: These are not fantasy specific, but just the the Again, the level of excitement across the industry has been very high for Holiday, basically since you know he he stepped onto a minor league field.
01:00:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, I wanted to. I want to just give the stats.
01:00:42
Speaker 1: You know, in his miners career one hundred and fifty five games, you know, his slash line is three twenty one, four fifty one for ninety seven or the ops is a nine to forty eight. You know, fifteen home runs in his career, twelve of those came in his only full season.
01:00:56
Speaker 2: Almost thirty steals. He's at twenty nine, you know, all.
01:01:00
Speaker 1: As many walks as strikeouts in his minor league career, one hundred and thirty eight of each. So just like some really ridiculous numbers for a guy that is going to be twenty years old for this entire season. The other thing that I wanted to note here, just in terms is kind of the bio they are giving him number seven. As you pointed out, you know, talking about kind of Corbyn Carroll number seven and Bobby Witt number seven. You have their jerseys already. This is an important number for the Oriols. It is not retired, but it is unofficially retired. Nobody has worn it since the Ripkins Cal Ripkins Senior were number seven. Then Billy Ripkin wore He's the last player, and that was back in the eighties. Everybody else who's ever worn seven for the Orioles is like from the fifties or earlier.
01:01:41
Speaker 2: Mark Blanger is on that list as well.
01:01:44
Speaker 1: I see Welsh's pointing even though we're this is an audio only podcast, but oh, you know.
01:01:50
Speaker 6: I have the infamous Billy Ripkin card. But even better, some card guy I have. It's there's a guy named Alex Party who's an artist for Tops, and he recreated a version of the Billy Ripken card in his Brighten Air series and I have both proudly.
01:02:08
Speaker 5: I was actually hoping on leading off today.
01:02:10
Speaker 6: As we did it that someone would notice, and I moved it to a place that could be seen visually, so people will probably now notice it. But just wanted to give a shout out that I just so happened to have the number seven Billy Rippin. Oh that's really disable.
01:02:21
Speaker 3: Do you want to tell the audience what it says on the bottom of that beat?
01:02:25
Speaker 5: It says fun face. It says fun face on the bottom. He's a fun guy.
01:02:28
Speaker 1: He The Lyrican was on and will be network earlier this morning talking about how the Holidays had kind of reached out to them to be like, hey, you know, we would like Jackson were number seven. If you guys are okay with it, we know this is unofficially retired and they said, yes, like we think Jackson is the right type of guy to sort of reintroduce this this very important number in royal sistory. So I just say that to say again the confidence level from the organization and the people around the organization is very high in Jackson and Welsh, you know, just to kind of get into a question like just straight off the bat, where would you rank your rest of season you know, as a second basement slash shortstop, you know, given the eligibility.
01:03:03
Speaker 6: Actually, I've just I've been working recently. I've got some updates. People want to check on Benesasy pros. I have been doing my rest of season ranks. I kind of held off for the first like week and a half and then I just started putting some of those ranks in and I've got to tackle it again and I'm trying to finalize things in the next week or so, you know, for now as everything changes. I had said in pre draft season that if Jackson Holiday were to break camp, he would be a top one hundred overall player, And I'm going to kind of stick to that range that I think, like I have wyat Langford in like the you know, fifty five sixty rest of season. I got Trio right next to him. They're both like top seventy five guys.
01:03:40
Speaker 5: Rest of season. I will probably put him right in that general range.
01:03:43
Speaker 6: And that does lead to It's like the biggest question that everybody is dealing with is, you know, is this prospect over overhyped to the level that they can live up to expectations?
01:03:53
Speaker 5: And I think it's fair.
01:03:55
Speaker 6: You know, we talked a lot about it on the Wednesday edition of Leading Off. It's fair to consider what trades might need to look like with a Jackson holiday. Sometimes the best time to trade a prospect is right as they came up.
01:04:07
Speaker 5: Transparracy.
01:04:08
Speaker 6: People probably understand we're recording this right before his debut. People are listening to this after he has played. Maybe he went over four, maybe he went four for four. You never know, there's still a little bit of time to jump into that. Can he live up to expectations? Expectations are sky high. I think it's actually going to be pretty tough for him to live up to the I actually think his expectations might even feel greater than drafting why at Langford in the top seventy right now, just because of how hyped he is, and people like me hyping him up, so you could look to trade him. But what I do think from a fantasy perspective is, you know, you do look at the hardcore tangibles of him, and those are low strike rate in triple A. He had a fourteen percent k percentage in triple A so far in a very small sample size this year.
01:04:49
Speaker 5: With the twenty one percent walk rate, it's phenomenal.
01:04:52
Speaker 6: Three thirty three average hit A couple homers hit him off of lefties.
01:04:55
Speaker 5: I believe he was.
01:04:56
Speaker 6: Averaging around ninety one average EV in triple A. And everybody picks on the power numbers, but I think what you need to focus on is not what is lacking in the player, but focus on what is he going to bring every single day. It's probably gonna hit six, He's going to hit a decent batting average. He will get on base because he's a high OBP guy, doesn't strike out a ton, and I think that's going to lead to really good stolen bases. That's why I projected him over thirty this year. I had said I might have said it with you guys. I think he's low key a higher batting average Bobby Witt junior rookie year guy, and Bobby Witt was twenty thirty in his rookie season.
01:05:35
Speaker 5: The batting average struggled. I think he could be.
01:05:38
Speaker 6: Fifteen thirty, fifteen thirty five with a better batting average, and that might win him Rookie of the Year.
01:05:43
Speaker 5: He still got all the opportunities.
01:05:44
Speaker 6: So by virtue of how I feel about that, I think he's got to be like a top one hundred, top seventy five player rest of season. He's a startable asset. And this is why you want to hold him. And this is why I wrote in my article like they could be up soon. Don't cut him, let him on avent. We had people that were dicey. They were like, should they get rid of holiday?
01:06:01
Speaker 5: He's not up. No, you hold on to him.
01:06:03
Speaker 6: I hope it works out. There's chances it won't. But this is a great offense. It's offense that's built around not striking out a bunch. There's a bunch of power bats are going to be hitting in front of him. He's gonna get on Basically, he is built around getting on base. The guy walked over a hundred times last year. I really do truly believe in Jackson Holiday, and I'm gonna fight through some of the struggles early on. We've seen some rookies have some struggles. Langford's having, you know, struggle is Carter had some early struggles. I think Holiday is gonna be fine, and I think he's gonna thrive. He can hit lefties, He's gonna multiposition eligibility to top seventy five.
01:06:39
Speaker 2: Guy.
01:06:40
Speaker 1: He's not gonna have the power of like a Langford or a Turio, but I do think the power is a little underrated. He yoked up a lot in the off season. He's still again, he just turned twenty like four months ago. Like, there is definitely room to grow and get even stronger, literally stronger.
01:06:56
Speaker 2: You know, in that power area.
01:06:57
Speaker 1: Mayor given the type of profile that we're talking about here, a guy where there's a reasonable expectation for batting average, there is some speed, definitely an on base guy, but there, you know, we don't know what the power is going to look like right away. He is batting ninth in his debut tonight, which again we're recording this segment a day early, so we have not seen the debut yet. He's batting ninth. I would expect him to move up, you know, over the course of time. It's just a it's a good lineup and be you know, hits his first game and they're not. They don't want to throw too much at him all at once, but give them what we're kind of describing, mayor is there maybe a format like, oh, he's gonna be better in points because he's not going to strike out a lot, or you know, in in categories because batting average is hard to find. Is there like sort of a format that you would be maybe more intrigued in adding him in than others.
01:07:43
Speaker 3: Well, I'll definitely be interested in adding him everywhere.
01:07:45
Speaker 4: But I think the common consensus is that points is where he's going to have the most value, like right off the bat, but and because of the walks and because of the strikeout. You know, he's not going to strike out a ton, We don't think, but I think points more. But I mean, like he's he has the kind of saying where you need to just roster him everywhere. And it was kind of funny you know, in slack looking at our you know, one of our Slack channels last night and where we have kind of two different Fantasy Bros.
01:08:10
Speaker 3: Baseball leagues, and I think you're you're in the one league.
01:08:13
Speaker 4: And then everyone was kind of and it's it's a little bit shallower in terms of like smaller rosters, so like you can't roster everyone and just dash them because we have very small rosters and you know, only some like three or four bench spots. And I think your league was like scrambling and fighting with ESPN to like pick Jackson Holiday up. And I was like, why is everyone you know rushing to pick Jackson Holiday up? He's he's been rostered in our league, you know the entire time. What are you guys doing over there in your league?
01:08:37
Speaker 1: He was drafted in ours and then dropped because again, you only have three bench spots in this league and it's daily lineups, so you like you kind of have to drop people to get pitchers in there. And the nature of the league is that there are good players available.
01:08:50
Speaker 5: So I get invited, by the way, I didn't get any invited. These fantasies are Fantasy pros leagues.
01:08:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, these are.
01:08:56
Speaker 1: You were definitely have the option and uh these were uh these were posted in our slack channel.
01:09:01
Speaker 2: But you'll get it. I actually want it my first year not to BRAC so we'll get you in.
01:09:05
Speaker 6: I guess I had a demotion. I guess I'm the Jackson Holiday of this league because I.
01:09:08
Speaker 1: Got Yes, you were divided devoted for now welse you kind.
01:09:13
Speaker 3: Of really high ceiling though you have a really high ceiling one.
01:09:16
Speaker 2: Yeah I like that.
01:09:17
Speaker 5: Yeah?
01:09:17
Speaker 2: Not do you touched on Welsh?
01:09:21
Speaker 1: The kind of a bit of a comp of like a rookie Bobby Wit but with higher batting average? Is there a long term comp that you would put on Jackson Holiday, like if you were sit to sit down and describe the player. I know comps are kind of tricky because no two guys are the same, and particularly in baseball, development is so nonlinear at times.
01:09:38
Speaker 2: But is there a guy that you know?
01:09:40
Speaker 1: When you watch Jackson Holiday or think about the player he's going to become, you are reminded of X player.
01:09:46
Speaker 6: I wish I had a singular player I can think of. I mean, it's kind of coming back to Bobby Wit, like Bob Bob, Bobby Whitt has taken another step. You saw the power and the speed take another step. His batting average is taking another step. Here's the problem, though, is like, I just think he's going to be like a better hitter. You know what it actually might be. I'm watching him right now. I might be making too much about this, and maybe I feel like it's been undersold in a lot of markets and maybe I'm over selling it. But I happened as we're recording this to be watching Corbyn Carrol at that and like, I wouldn't be surprised to see him somebody like that. I think he'd be really aggressive on the base paths. But again, it's like, give me or build me a player that in a couple of years is going to hit three hundred. Give me that player that's gonna have twenty plus homer in power, thirty plus stolen bases, and I think it's gonna hit near the tippy top of the lineup. I actually think he would be prototypical number two. Go Gunner, Jackson Holiday and then Adley.
01:10:46
Speaker 5: Or maybe switch it up. How about this.
01:10:47
Speaker 6: You know, Gunner's hard hit numbers I think are really improving. I'd like to see Jackson Holiday lead off for this team in the future and then go Adlee and Gunner hitting three. I think that's the way to go. So I'm saying like this is guy that can score one hundred runs, blah blah blah.
01:11:03
Speaker 5: I don't know, you want to know. It came to my mind.
01:11:04
Speaker 6: I hate to say it like Mookie Bets, like the Mookie Bets type of hitter, Like it's too dramatic. I think throwing comps on is too scary right now. But I do see him to be a high batting average better than whoever you guys think. Not you specifically weren't, but how most people think in power. I think he's gonna steal more like I felt about Corbyn Carroll. I felt Corby Carroll's projections in his first year every system was like sixteen stolen bases and I laughed and I'm never I'm not a big like everything is wrong. I was like, this is wrong, this is one hundred percent wrong. I think holiday's the same way. Last time I looked look at this, the bat x seven homers, nine stolen bases in ninety nine games. ATC has eleven stolen bases. I don't know what I would do, guys, but if he has less than twenty and he plays one hundred plus games this year, like I'm not gonna shave my head. But I'm saying, like I'd shave my head. There's zero chance in my money is less than twenty l in bases if he plays a relatively full season. That's how confident I feel.
01:12:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, he played one hundred and twenty five games last season the minors, and he had twenty four stolen bases. I would expect, you know, I would expect a similar rate.
01:12:14
Speaker 6: Baltimore likes to run. They like to run. They support the players running. If he's gonna also hit lower parts of the lineup, they're gonna move him. I just like, I think this is gonna You're looking at a future top two round fantasy player, you know, with ninety percent outcome.
01:12:30
Speaker 1: Mayor are you obviously you know, if he's available anywhere, you're picking him up. Are you making trade offers for Holiday right now? Or if you have him, are you saying, as Welsh alluded to, like this is the time when people are most excited and you can maybe get a steal.
01:12:45
Speaker 2: Is there a god.
01:12:45
Speaker 6: Dynasty way for I mean, dynasty redraft is very different.
01:12:49
Speaker 2: Though.
01:12:49
Speaker 6: My perception of how aggressive I would be on Jackson Holiday in redraft is not the same as dynasty. The way I'm talking is dynasty stuff redraft. I still like him, but I bet you he cost more than a top seventy five player to try to trade for him right now?
01:13:03
Speaker 5: Can you even trade?
01:13:04
Speaker 6: Would you even consider a top one hundred to trade for Jackson Holiday?
01:13:09
Speaker 3: Mayor?
01:13:10
Speaker 4: Well, that was kind of when I was going to kind of flip around on you, because you talked about this a little bit earlier on leading Off and kind of like selling high on Jackson Holliday. And I've been really thinking about that all day of like what if I'm the Jackson Holiday manager? I you know, I either drafted him or picked it him, picked him up early, and I've been waiting for this day and I'm.
01:13:26
Speaker 3: Excited for this day. But what would a sell high offer have to look like for me to give up Jackson Holiday? And like it's probably like you're probably.
01:13:38
Speaker 4: Like I said, really want to hold on too him because you drafted him and this is exactly what you've been waiting for. But you also maybe you're the manager who drafted Spencer Strider or Shane Bieber and you really need a pitcher, And would Zach Wheeler, what if you're the Spencer Strider manager and you need pitching, and Zach Wheeler is offered.
01:13:53
Speaker 3: Is is Zach Wheeler someone that you would pull the trigger on in a trade for Jackson Holliday?
01:13:58
Speaker 5: Heartbeat?
01:13:59
Speaker 6: I'm Mississippi minute instantly, I would do that. Somebody made a again, this is redraft. You're saying redraft. You had said the or someone in the chat had said, oh, I already got an offer O'Neil Cruz for Jackson Holiday. I do it absolutely like those are to me, those are no brainers. George Kirby would be interesting. Kirby's been kind of stinking and struggling. I don't know anybody does it. I don't think anybody offers Zach Wheeler for him.
01:14:25
Speaker 5: I don't think.
01:14:26
Speaker 6: I don't think those happened. But like where, I don't need to ask a question. Those are instant accepts. I think when you start getting into like it's a little bit tough, like Andres Jimenez.
01:14:38
Speaker 5: I don't know why you would.
01:14:39
Speaker 6: Trade like even for even, But like Andres Jimenez, they might be the same player. If you got what you project out of Andre's minutes out of Jackson Holiday, that's actually a plus, you know what. I'm kind of projecting Jackson Holiday like andres A Mintz, except it's in a better offense. If you think about power speed, what I'm seeing out of him like that would make sense. But why like what I want to do a lateral move like that? It makes a lot more sense for somebody that wants to trade some you know, good outfield piece. You know, Nick Casiano would be a really interesting one that was like a top one hundred outfielder who's really struggled if you know you're trading positionally, but trading out of position makes the most sense. I think pitching makes a ton of sense if you could get in by low on the Castillo's, the Kirby's, the Wheelers. I just don't think those are out there. I think people are going to be offering, maybe Bobby Miller after this start, they're offering, and those are still.
01:15:26
Speaker 4: I was going to I was going to ask if Bobby Miller. I was just looking at the names of pitchers when you were kind of talking. Bobby Miller was kind of the name I stopped at of like, that's probably the threshold if I had to guess.
01:15:37
Speaker 1: I want to I want to wrap the conversation with a bit of Dynasty focus as well, And so what about like a Zach Wheeler for Holiday in Dynasty? If you're the win if you are a win Now manager and you have lost a Strider or any other number.
01:15:52
Speaker 2: Of pitchers this season and.
01:15:56
Speaker 1: You you have a need, would you be willing to part with the Jackson Holiday in Dynasty for a true fantasy ace or what would it take in Dynasty for you to move? And where do you even have Holiday ranked in Dynasty?
01:16:09
Speaker 2: Going forward?
01:16:10
Speaker 5: In Dynasty?
01:16:11
Speaker 6: I have Holiday top twenty five, So no, I would not trade a thirty plus year old or trade four to thirty plus year old hit her.
01:16:18
Speaker 2: And to be clear, I do agree with that. I think that's the right answer.
01:16:21
Speaker 6: But I was, Yeah, we had a question on leading off that came up where someone was and I think I might have I don't know where I mentioned this, but they had said like, oh, hey, it's only three keepers and my keepers are Gunner. And then it was like Julio and Wit you know, some ridiculous thing, and Gunner was the third and he's like, I just got an offer for my holiday to get Trek Skubele And I was like, you know, normally in Dynasty, i'd say no, But this is a different keeping format where Gunner and Jackson Holiday might be a really tough keeper option. So if you can improve your team this year by getting an ace, I would do that in that respect.
01:16:57
Speaker 5: In a full Dynasty. No, I just couldn't do that.
01:16:59
Speaker 1: I don't.
01:17:00
Speaker 6: I be honest with you, I don't know I would trade Jackson Oalley for any picture in baseball right now, because the top two are hurt and they're down, and we might have the news of Stryder having to Strider's having Tommy John like he's already gone and see the doctor. The rumors out there are that he's having it and then they're just gonna announce it once he's done and it's gone successful.
01:17:21
Speaker 5: That might not be true, but we'll see. That's what I've heard. Yeah, But like, why why.
01:17:24
Speaker 6: Would I trade this young here, even in a win now mode? I just don't see how I could do it for any singular picture. But that will happen. You will see Jackson Holliday and Dynasty get moved for like Tyler Glass now after striking out fourteen, or you'll see it maybe even for Cole Reagan's.
01:17:39
Speaker 5: Yeah, maybe those are okay.
01:17:41
Speaker 6: But like, if we've learned anything in Dynasty, look at all the pictures, look at Spencer Strider. Spencer Strider's hurt right now, and the Tommy John could happen.
01:17:49
Speaker 5: That's the best picture in baseball. And he's down.
01:17:51
Speaker 6: And Shane McClanahan was like my number one two years ago and he's down. So I would have to like really be blown away to move off of that asset to win now where I know it would never happen, But I would need like a tyler glass now and more. I would need two pieces that helped me so well that I'm willing to mortgage the future because again, I personally think Jackson Hollyday. I don't want to talk about all prospects like this. It's very dangerous to do this because then it's like, oh my god. But Corbyn Carroll started somewhere, Ronald Acunye started somewhere. These guys start in these places where it's like, well, I don't know if they can really work out.
01:18:26
Speaker 5: I personally believe that Jackson.
01:18:28
Speaker 6: Holiday can be a high high end fantasy option because his floor for his ability to make contact, to not strike out, to walk, to run, He's gonna build more power.
01:18:39
Speaker 5: He hits the ball really hard baseball fan, I.
01:18:42
Speaker 6: Believe he's a high So I don't want to mortgage the future and just give him away just because it makes me better. I gotta know that I'm going to win now, and that's why it would be a trade that probably doesn't make sense in dynasty, but in redraft, yeah, man.
01:19:00
Speaker 5: And stuff, it makes me win now.
01:19:01
Speaker 6: I want to win now in redraft and rookies providing like their upper value are few and far between. Corvin Carroll broke the mold last year. Jackson could break the mold. But if you can go and get some ridiculous return where we're like, oh yeah, Wheeler, sure I'll do that, then yeah, that's where I'm gonna pull the trigger.
01:19:20
Speaker 1: It makes me when you're talking about not shading for any pitcher, it makes me think about like running backs in fantasy football dynasty, where it's like if you have like Marvin Harrison Junior, for example, it's like there's basically no running back you would trade him for because this position is just it's it's the position that you really want to get right, but it's so volatile.
01:19:35
Speaker 6: It's such a great way to put it too because like listen, there are there could be seventy one hundred players for the next two years that could improve your team and make your team better than a Jackson Holiday. This is a risk rookies or risks, prospects are risk. The better set better approach in Dynasty is always putting a focus on winning now. But there are times I think that are worth putting your foot down, and like I think Jackson Holiday is a put your foot down type of player, to wait it out, see where it goes, and take the risk unless somebody is going to blow your freaking socks off, you know, lind Or who's been struggling versus Jackson Holiday is interesting even in Dynasty. But I probably would still go with Jackson Holiday even if I you know, even if lind Door might outproduce this season if he.
01:20:18
Speaker 2: Does, Mayor what are your quck thoughts on Holiday in Dynasty.
01:20:22
Speaker 4: I mean, I'm not moving him in Dynasty just because of what the ceiling is and what he could be and if I had him, you know, I probably spent a decent asset to get him, and I'm not, you know, even if I'm like I think we talked before, like I'm usually in like a more of a win now mode, like not like a mortgage in the future win now mode. But I try to always have like young players like ready to contribute, and I don't really ever sell or buy too hard. I just try to like stay competitive, and if I have Jackson Holliday, there's you know, there's almost no way I'm moving, regardless of the Welsh.
01:20:54
Speaker 2: Last question is not fantasy or later. I was going to get your opinion.
01:20:57
Speaker 1: As you know, I am a diehard Orioles fan, so this is something I think about a lot. How would you rank of all the guys Adley Gunner, Holliday, Grayson, Kowser, Kearstad, Mayo, Bisaio, whoever you want to include? How would you rank the guys in order of who you would most want the Like if you were an oil sand who you would most want them to extend to, like a ten year, three hundred million dollar contract, like the face of the franchise, but he's older. He's a catcher, you know, Grayson is really good but young, but he's a pitcher. How are you kind of ranking though, Like these are like the Cornerstone three hundred million dollar contract, like you want them extended if you're in Baltimore.
01:21:32
Speaker 6: You know it might be crazy, but uh, it's there's one person in their own tier, and it's Adley. Because Adley makes the pictures better. He is one of the great game callers. He makes your pictures better, he makes your offense better. He's a number two hitter, a switch hitter, a contact hitter. Again not a big strikeoukay walk Homer. I think Adley from a real baseball perspective, is the guy that is that is your team leader, that is your core. You build everything around him because guess what, Grace is better because of Adley. Whoever's hitting Gunner, if he hits three, he's better because Adley is hitting in front of him. Gunner's better because Adley hits behind him. It's Adley that's the top guy.
01:22:10
Speaker 5: Number two.
01:22:13
Speaker 6: It's probably, I mean, honestly, probably Jackson Holiday. I think Jackson Holiday will become the actual face. I think like Adley will be the smart man or the smart oriole Man's uh, you know, team leader, but Holidays are going to become like the face face and then probably like Grayson, Grayson is in that same tier with Holiday, maybe Gunner, and then you know, then then you're started getting into a lot more speculation. I think Cowser is wildly underrated and stuff like that. But like Kowser and Mayo and Basilo, but Besioh is actually not as valuable because he's probably gonna move off of Catcher and be more of a first basement but really good bat But yeah, I think it's Adley in his own tier, and then it's like Grayson or then Holiday maybe in his own tier, and then Gunner and uh, Grayson Rod.
01:22:57
Speaker 1: I've kind of had Gunner and Holiday. It's like really hard to kind of parse between the two. I mean, sure, we'll see what Holiday actually does here, you know, once he's actually but super super exciting. Obviously, I could do three hours on Jackson, Holiday and the Orioles, so we'll keep it to just about a half hour here. But I appreciate the extended segment here for Prospect Corner Welsh, you making the time and letting me kind of just gush about the yet another Orioles top prospect. He's getting the call, so I'm really excited for his debut tonight. Hopefully, when may Or and I record the rest of the show tomorrow, we can you know, rejoice in a very fun Orioles win. I know Mayor won't be bringing for that, of course, given who they're playing, but yeah, just a really, really exciting time to be an Orioles fan.
01:23:40
Speaker 2: So I am. I know I'm biased, but it's a good time to be biased because.
01:23:44
Speaker 5: I appreciate it.
01:23:44
Speaker 6: I appreciate it, guys, and you know, go number sevens So number seven there he is, Billy Ripkin.
01:23:50
Speaker 1: All right, we will be back for the rest of the show here in just a second. Thank you again to Welsh for joining us on this episode of the cycle. Mayor less wrap things up up here talking about what we're excited for this weekend and then diving into a two start picture competition. We'll start with the weekend excitement. Of course I will let.
01:24:09
Speaker 2: You go first.
01:24:10
Speaker 4: Of course, what a treat letting me go first. So as we as we talked about last week, we're probably gonna lean pitchure heavy just from like looking at the slate, you went first, grabbed a lot of good ones. So even though I'm talking first, you picked you picked names first because you got to the cheap first. But I do have some good ones I want to see kent to Mayeda versus the Twins, you know, revenge matchup versus the Twins. But also I'm interested because Kentameda hasn't looked great to start the season, and I kind of need him to be a lot better based on my fantasy rosters. And so one start was terrible, one start was not terrible, but could have been a lot better. So I'm really hoping the revenge narrative against the Twins helps him look a lot better. And actually, you know, get that era a little bit under nine. And I also want to see Charlie Morton versus Marlins and Zach Willier versus the Pirates because of our existing two star pitcher competition.
01:25:04
Speaker 1: I was gonna say, just to remind everybody who might have forgotten last week, we are doing a two start pitcher competition throughout the year, and you can only you can pick whoever you want. There's no roster stipulations, but you can only pick them once. So last week I picked Zach Wheeler and mayor picked Charlie Morton. Of course, because when we record, we don't know the results of those yet from last week, so we'll well our best to keep everybody, you know, track of that throughout the season. So those guys each other their second starts coming up this weekend, which is what Mayor is referring to you. There my weekend excitement. And there were a few options here and I picked I think a lot of good ones that Mayor was not not allowed to pick. I want to see I'm a mooto against the Padres again. Obviously it was abysmal first start, but a unique situation given where the series has taking place and how early it was and first time facing you know, major league hitters, all that stuff. So i want to see how he does second time around against the Padres, especially with a dearth of gble, you know, fantasy aces. It would be really nice if Yamamoto could kind of continue to like really solidify himself as one and show that was a fluke. Ronelle Blanco, I'm really curious to see him facing Texas a second time. We talked last week, coming off with the no hitter, how you know, he kind of introduced the change up and maybe teams weren't quite ready for it, and that was a key to his early success here. And I'm really interested to see now that he's facing not only a team again, but a team again, like a week later if they have adjusted and are now more ready for his repertoire that he's going to come out with, and if he can continue to have a really strong start to the season and look like, oh, maybe this is a guy who's elevated his game somehow and it is really worth being in every week starter versus Hey. Kind of a fun first couple of starts and not so much so I'm really curious to see how he goes against the Rangers. Obviously, Corbyn Burns facing the Brewers for the first time in his in his chance to get a revenge. The game is in Baltimore, not Milwaukee, but should be a really fun one over the weekend. But of course, how could it not be Jackson Holiday home debut Friday night against those Brewers. It was originally going to be dl Hall starting, and it was a question of if Holiday would actually even get to play in that first game, which I think people would have like rioted if he didn't give him facing the lefty, but there was you know, with the rain. Now now it will be a righty facing the Orioles on Friday night, so we will see. I assume Jackson Holiday make his Canden Yard's debut on Friday night. I am very excited for that. Let's get into the two start pitcher competition to actually wrap things up, I'll let you go first again.
01:27:38
Speaker 4: Sure, so to start well real quick before we jump into that, one quick note on Ronel Blanco.
01:27:43
Speaker 3: I actually picked him up.
01:27:44
Speaker 4: In the league last week in a league, so he pitched on Sunday with his second really good start. I'm actually in the league where waivers run on Saturday and Sunday night, so I actually put in a cheap waiver claim for him on Saturday just to see if I get him for cheap before that second start, and I got him for three dollars. I'm surprised I was able to get him. But because of what you said where he's facing the Rangers for a second time, I actually added him on waivers and then put him on my bench because I was worried about him facing the Rangers for a second time. So we'll see how that goes. But for my two star pitcher for this week, I am taking Aaron Nola, who has two home matchups, the first against the Rockies and the second against the White Sox, two of the worst offenses in baseball.
01:28:23
Speaker 1: That is probably smart. I am taking Cutter Crawford. We talked a bit about the Red Sox rotation on last week's episode. He looked really good against the Oil Sports seven runs yesterday, and it was after Crawford was gone. I mean they he looked really good, kind of dicing up. He looked really good all season. Obviously, the roster percentage is still actually not I think as high as it might.
01:28:44
Speaker 2: You know, Warrant being given his start to the season.
01:28:48
Speaker 3: Great name, I think you're too, Cutter Crawford. What a great name for.
01:28:51
Speaker 1: A pitcher per perfect game, especially in this era when everybody's thrown throwing Cutters. You know, he's got eighteen strikeouts in.
01:28:57
Speaker 3: Cutter with a K too, even better Cutter with a G.
01:28:59
Speaker 1: Yes, that's actually a great point that cutter with a K is is. That's that's extra elite. But as ERA and WEP are both under one, you know, three starts into the season, I just I think he's looked really good, and since he's a two start pitcher, and I don't want to just kind of waste all the aces early, although maybe I should, because they're going to get hurt before I can use him. He's facing the Guardians and the vaunted Pirates lineup that we talked about last week as well, so well known. We will see how Cutter does next week. Any other thoughts, This is a long episode, but we got a lot in there.
01:29:28
Speaker 4: No, I don't want to talk any longer and make us go any longer than we've already gone and get us in trouble with John and Welsh. But uh yeah, really good conversation.
01:29:37
Speaker 2: Name.
01:29:39
Speaker 1: Thank you everybody for sticking with us through this jam packed episode. For Mayor and for Welsh, We're coming on. I am Ryan Warmley and we'll.
01:29:46
Speaker 2: Be back again next week.
01:29:47
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast.
01:29:51
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01:29:53
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01:30:01
Speaker 2: Two