Identifying the Next Breakout WR1s: 15 Wideouts With Elite Upside (Ep. 888)

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Who are the next wide receiver ones. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Football Podcast. It is me Joey b Joe Pizzapio with you today, mister big pod energy. Andrew Ericson is back for some more. The best groom beard in the business, Derek Brown a KAA d bro aka the King of Bros, is with us as well, and we've got one of my favorite topics to discuss. To me, the last three years of fantasy football have been decided on identifying the wide receivers who can make a jump from wide receiver three group to number twos and number twos to number ones, and today it's all about the ones who are the next potential wide receiver ones. We're gonna tell you who might be in that category in this podcast today, and we're going to break down the names and tell you where some of these wide receiver ones might be coming from in terms of where they are in their careers and what teams might be able to facilitate that. But before we get going, I want to talk about another wide receiver one. How about Deebo Samuel. That's right, because that guy jumped into that tier didnty last year. That was fun and now you can get an autograph Deebo Samuel Helmet. Thanks for our friends at Pristine Auction dot com. Just hit over to Fantasy Pros dot com slash contest to get that. And all you have to do is subscribe to our YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros. Subscribe to the YouTube screenshot that click that bell for notifications, and then head over to Fantasypros dot com slash contest and then you can get that debo Samuel autograph helmet and all is right with the world. Plus, we know we're in May and June here it's best ball season and we've got you covered for all the best ball drafts that you're doing with our Best Ball draft Kit over at fantasypros dot com slash Best Ball. That's right. I know, crazy to put the best ball at the end of the slash. We did it because we're crazy here at Fantasy Pros and we've got an amazing amount of content in that Best Ball Draft Kit. We're talking the rankings, we're talking strategies, roster construction, advice. All that's there for you and it's free, but there's also a hidden door, and when you are a subscriber to Fantasy Pros and you have a higher membership here with us, you get access to even more incredible best ball content. So check out the free Bestball kit over at Fantasy Pros dot com slash best Ball, But don't be afraid to peek behind the door and see all the cool stuff we got going on there as well. Speaking of cool stuff, here's two cool guys right here talking football with me. So, guys, before we kick things off, this episode I think is extremely important, and there's a great article that Sam Reiner actually did on our site at Fantasypros dot com which is identifying the next wide receiver one. So just for a little backstory, here some great data from twenty twelve to twenty twenty one. There's an average of seven point three different wide receiver ones in PPR formats a year over year, So you can assume that there's going to be some turnover in this grouping year over year. Certainly some years stay a little bit more consistent than others, but still seven different ones out of twelve that's pretty high turnover rate. Since twenty twelve, thirty four percent of wide receiver ones first reach that mark in their third NFL season, and twenty percent, just over twenty percent do it in their second season. So basically, wide receiver ones are coming from the second and third year breakout seasons. So Andrew, when you hear that kind of data, and then you see also some of the rookies who've been able to do it, like Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson over the last few years. How does this ring true to you in terms of the turnover at wide receiver one and where these guys are coming from in their careers. Yeah, it just kind of goes to show that the receivers that are entering the NFL are just coming in more more seasoned, like they're ready to go to the right to make an instant impact. The days of waiting for you know, year four, these year three breakouts are just they're not as common anymore. Like if you don't hit the ground running by year two, it's like now you need to like slam on the panic button. You're like, oh my god, Like you gotta show something that shows, Okay, you're improving, you're getting better. So, like, especially when rookies get hurt, you know, the first year and they don't flash at all. It's like, what do we do with this guy? And you have the rare occasions where you have like a DJ Chark season in his second year where he basically did nothing as a rookie. But where's DJ Chark now? Like, he's not talked about as a wide receiver. So even though he ended up hitting his second year, you know, the fact that he did nothing as a rookie ultimately on like kind of played into his ultimate fate right now where he is now an anciliary receiver on the Detroit lines, it doesn't have a lot of fantasy values. So I think it's just so early that we're getting production early on from these players. And the fact that so many wide receivers are on the field at the same time, it gives opportunities to more players to ascend to wide receiver one as opposed to before when there were only some receivers a handful of receivers that were commanding so many targets, where nowadays you're seeing tons, you know, thirty receivers, Ford receivers seeing above a hundred targets, and that's going to give them a better opportunity to finish as a wide receiver one. Derek Brown did hit you in the gut when it with that number of seven or just over seven. Basically a turnover from twelve wide receiver ones. Even at twelve wide receiver ones in a class right in a group where you list the top twelve guys, seven different ones year over year is typically the average. That kind of hit me and it was kind of stunning for a second, but it makes sense. I mean, sure injuries play a part, but also the turnover of offenses, turnover a quarterback, so many different factors can come into play here. But did that kind of surprise you that number and how high it was in terms of the turnover? It did in the sense, but I mean, we see this play out every year in fantasy football with variants and the ascension of different offenses and things like that. So this really all to put a bow on this. This comes down to you don't need to be expecting last year to repeat itself. So just because Cooper Cup was the wide receiver one overall he's smashed and grabbed last year, doesn't mean necessarily that's going to happen and he's going to go legend mode in twenty twenty two. As the other side of the coin, players that have done so in previous seasons doesn't mean that we can't see this come back or new players jump up into these ranks. So I think a lot of this comes down to the variants that we see from team to team and just in fantasy football in general. So I mean, don't approach your drafts expecting everything else just to walk back into it. It's not saying that these players can't repeat, but you do need to be mixing up your player exposures when you get into ten twelve fantasy leagues and you're playing best Ball and what have you, and really looking at the range of outcomes. Yeah, and I always say this is so crucial because if you can identify the guys that make a jump from Tier three to two or Tier two to one, that's the difference of you winning a league because you're getting such a value on that player. So let's talk about some of the third year wide receiver potential breakouts. The guys who are entering their third year in the NFL that we think are in a position, whether it be the quarterback, the offense, the combination of skills, all these things might come together for them. Andrew ericson, let's start with you. Who is somebody that fits the bill as a potential wide receiver one breakout from the third year class. So my number one guy and I would have different guys listed, but Debro beat me to the Google sheet and got all the best ones. So just early bird gets the worm canage with Debro too. It's happened, It's happened to me, just to say it's happened to me too. So Debro started to catch on, he's gotta be spe he's got he's gotta be faster. So so I'm gonna start with Jerry Judy here from the Denver Broncos. Now, this may come as a shock to many of you that have been listening to the podcast, because I am the number one Courtland Sutton stand on Planet Earth, as I like to think so. But I also realized that it's still a really good situation and good opportunity for Jerry Judy. He's entering his third year and I know that Judy, if you're just like looking at the box score, really hasn't been really pretty day over the last two seasons. Now, his rookie year, it was horrible quarterback play. He flashed at times, but really never really put it together. He did have a high target chair, which is a suggests that he is a talented player. And when you watch him play, he looks like he's really good on the field, Like he's a guy that's an elite separator ninety six percentile separation percentage into twenty twenty one. So the talent is there. You know, he was a first round pick for a reason. He played at Alabama, was very productive at the college level. So there's no denying that Jerry Judy has the skill set to be a wide receiver one. And now he finally has a quarterback in place that has fueled wide receiver ones year in and year out with Tyler Lockett, you know, Doug Baldwin, DK Metcalf like, so we've seen it before. Whereas before the other quarterbacks that Judy was playing with, there was nothing like, there was no hope that Drew Locke Kenny Bridgewater could fuel a wide receiver one. Just wasn't It wasn't possible for Judy. So and then last year Judy obviously got banged up. It looked like he was going to start off the season really great. He started with a very His Week one game was excellent, but he was lost for about half the season with an ankle injury. But so going back to the fact with Russell Wilson, I'm being added into the scope of Jerry Judy's year three. I mean, this is what you want to look for when you're looking for these tier jumpers. As Joe you kind of put so elegantly, quarterback play matters so much. And that's something that when you look back Cooper Cup. Cooper Cup was not inside the top twelve rankings last year and what happened. Oh he got a good quarterback. Oh what do you know? Now he's number one. So it seems really simple to be like, oh, well, now he's a good quarterback. Now he'll make the jump. But I think it really can be that simple. You know, if Jerry Judy ultimately becomes Russell Wilson's go to target and it's offense and it's not Court and Sutton, then I think Judy has the talent that can match the opportunity that he now has. I expect Judy, even if he doesn't make the leap to wide receiver one status, he's gonna have a career year. I have no doubt in my mind that Judy's going to be a productive fantasy asset to some extent in year three as long as he can stay healthy. So that's my pick for number one, and hopefully he avoids legal issues. Let's see if it all fixes itself. But I'm always of the mind if you understand the quarterback, you understand the quarterback play, you understand the offense, and the trickle down effect then comes into everything else in fantasy. So it all starts at the top, just like in the NFL. Either half the quarterback and you can compete or you don't. Same thing. Either have the quarterback who's going to help these fantasy assets or they're not. It doesn't just mean the wide receivers. It means the running backs too. We're talking about moving the chains. We're talking about putting points on the board and getting scoring opportunities. And it's funny, we spent enough time together now where we've had positive Jerry Judy impact on you and you have turned around and somehow got in my head and I just selected Courtland Sutton in a draft in Best Ball. So there you get love to see all coming together. This is what we'd love to see. Let's go to you, Derek Brown. Give me a name on your list of guys who's a third year wide receiver that could fit into this category of breakout into a wide receiver one. Well, I know this guy is Derekson approved, so I'm gonna lead off with him. This is the one that it's the low hanging fruit. And before I lean into this name, there was something when I was doing all my research for this podcast, I'll look back over the last four seasons and basically just so people can kind of wrap their heads around, like, if you're looking for these breakout guys, basically over the last four years, the wide receiver twelve and fantasy points per game, and this is over the new seventeen games that we have. You're looking for a player that can average or at least hit somewhere in the neighborhood of these marks. Because this is what the wide receiver twelve has done over the last four years. They've had one hundred and forty six targets on average, one hundred and two receptions, almost twelve hundred receiving arts, and eight receiving touchdowns. So if you're looking for these players in your mind's eye, you have to build some type of scenario or positive case that they can hit or at least get close to these benchmarks. So just to throw that out for context. But the low hanging fruit here is Michael Pittman. I know that we all love him. I really think that Colts are going to throw more this year. I've said this on previous podcast. I'm gonna say it again. Last year, weeks one through nine, Indie was ninth in neutral script passing rates and then they realize Carson Wentz is terrible, and they just said, Okay, we're just gonna feed Jonathan Taylor the ball the entire freaking game and we could win because we have a good enough defense. This year, with Matt Ryan in town one, Pittman is going to gobble up targets. And you see that. I think that the Cults are going to be more pass heavy. So all this means that Michael Pittman has this type of upside to gobble up the volume. Because last year, when they were a more pass heavy team, he was averaging seven point nine targets per game seventy three receiving yards. So here we got benchmarks. Because if you go back to those numbers I gave you earlier. You're looking at eight point six targets per game, sixty nine point six receiving yards per game, and he was averaging over half a touchdown per game. So we're talking about a player that is he was doing this last year. Now, all we need to see and he over span he was the wide receiver fifteen, so he was knocking on the door of doing this right. All we need to see is the improved quarterback play for the entire season, and Michael Pittman's going to be inside the top twelve. I venture to say he needs one other thing. And the other thing that I believe he needs is a friend. He needs somebody else out there who can be a legitimate wide receiver in this offense. And I think that's another thing that the Colts struggled with last year. When you are the only guy and people realize all these only guy will just take him out of the equation for us and then to just run the football a day with Taylor and that's how we're going to game plan. On the defensive side. It changes the dynamic. So I hope if it's pierced, if it's somebody else steps up. I'm not holding my breath for Paris Campbell. Hey, Hey, hey, he said he's healthy. He said he's one hundred percent healthy, ready to get great in speaking of players that were healthy Fantasy Pro's news desk, that's right from my app there, it is, I see it right now. Paris Campbell is healthy. But seriously, he needs a little bit more health. And I do agree. I think he's got all the right tools and finally a quarterback. I think that can take him to that next level. Who can get to the next level? Who's next on your list? Andrew from the wide receiver one potential group, but thirty year wide receiver. Yeah, So for me, it's probably one of the more polarizing players to talk about in fantasy is Gabriel Davis for the Buffalo Bills. And it's weird because he's had a very weird career arc in terms of how he's gotten to this point entering year three, because he really hasn't played a lot in his first two years in the NFL, like he's been a backup on the outside for veteran wide receivers that have played on the Bills. But there's no denying that every time Gabriel Davis is like playing a full time role on the Buffalo Bills. The guy is scoring Fantasy points and that matters to me, Like that's the difference between him and a guy like Jerry Judy. Judy has the pedigree, he has the draft capital, he has the investment, but he has not produced at all, whereas Gabriel Davis last over the last six games that he's played, when he was playing a full time role, running around on eighty eight percent of the Bills dropbacks, almost twenty fantasy points per game sixteen expected Fantasy points per game in PPR format. So the fact that he has just been like the hurdle he has to overcome is being a full time player. Like that's what we're looking for Gabriel Davis to take a step in year three. And when I look at the depth chart, I just like, I don't see a scenario where you have the three guy jameson Crowder, Isaiah McKenzie and Kelley el Shakur. Those are the three guys that are like next in line to be that wide receiver three in this offense. And I mean James mccrowder hasn't played, He's played sixteen games once over the last four years. He's a slot receiver. Isaiah McKenzie made special teams money and in the off season, that's what the Bills signed him to. And Shakier was drafted in the fifth round as a rookie. I think that he offers a lot of upside and I'm surprised that he went in the fifth round. But he's still a rookie, and the Bills have shown that they are more than happy to play veterans over rookies, like we're gonna be frustrated playing more with Shakier, not playing over guys like Jameson Crowder throughout the season whenever Shakur makes a splash play down the field. So for me, I'm looking at it and like, Gabriel Davis is the only other perimeter receiver on this Bill's team besides Stefon Diggs and who was really good on the Minnesota Vikings that caught like ten touchdowns every single year playing opposite Stefon Diggs. Do you guys remember who that was? Oh yeah, I was Adam Feeling and that guys still catch a double digit touchdowns and that's the path for Gabriel Davis to be an absolute monster is touchdowns. He is top five in the NFL and end zone targets over the last two years. This guy is a part time player. He started sixteen games over the past two seasons, so top five yards per catch over the last two years. Like I mentioned, top five in total end zone targets, like he has he's gobbling up all these high value touches and now he finally has a chance to be a full time player. So for me, it's Gabriel Davison just kind of looking historically at his career arc. Some of the comps I looked at looking at a player that basically has scored thirteen touchdowns without scoring without starting more than sixteen games, and the comps the best comps are Calvin Ridley, Tyreek Hill, Dez Bryant entering year three. All those guys smash in year three like they were just all wide receiver ones. Mark Tavis Bryant fit that category. He was suspended for his third season, he did not play. And then the other two guys are Austin Collie and Chris Henry. So those were middle range picks. But the thing with those two particular players is they were solely entrenched as number three, Austin Colly had to play behind pr Garson and Reggie Wayne, and Chris Henry was behind t J. Houshprinzada and Shadow Josenko. So when I'm looking at these types of players and where Gabriel Davis kind of falls in the archetype, he falls more on the first guys I talked about. And I hate to be like, oh, he's gonna be Ridley Hill and Dez Bryant, but that's the way I'm leaning. And so if it's a coin flip whether Gabriel Davis is going to be Calvin Ridley or at Austin Colly, I'm going to lean on the Calvin Ridley side, especially playing and it's such a high powered offense. Well, look, Gabriel Davis was one of the guys last year. I was super high and anybody who listened to the shows or watched the box draft shows, they saw me take Gabriel Davis all the time. And it was frustrating the first six weeks of the season to see how he wasn't being used, and then of course you get into the later part of the year and then the playoffs, and it was all there because if you watched the year before, you saw in big spots where Josh Allen was looking for him in the end zone, looking for him in big plays, and I thought, oh, second year, he's gonna crush it. But instead they went back to Beasley, went back to some of the other receivers. Emmanuel Sanders had a good start to the season last year. We all remember that. But I hope so because everything is aligned and this guy does have the quarterback to do it. Let's take a quick break in the action to tell you about manscaped. That's right, it's spring and you know what that means. Boys, it's spring cleaning season. Summers right around the corner. Before you know what, you're gonna be out at the pool, You're gonna be out at the beach, and some little kids are gonna say, mommy, daddy, what is that Adam bole And they're gonna say that's a sasquatch Jimmy, But no, it's you. Because you're out of control and your body hair needs to be checked. And you know what happens, Manscape can come in and save the day. And me Joey P used the promoco Joey P to get twenty percent off and free shipping from manscape dot com. They've got the Performance Package four point zero for your package, all the cool tools that you need to take care of your tool. The lawnmower four point zero. It is the greatest trimmer ever. It's got the cool light, it's got the amazing skin safe technology so you don't nick your knick knacks. And they've got the crop preserver, the cropper viver, they've got that little tiny little blade to shave your you know what. And I'm telling you right now, they've got so many fantastic products for you over at Manscape Joe. Check them out. You can buy them in a whole package deal, lots of package references. But I'm telling you it really is a game changer. Go to manscape dot com and not only you're going to help yourself out, but they're also going to help out people with testicular cancer awareness because Manscape is bringing awareness to something that kills a lot of men, and early cancer detection is a game changer. So get a game changer, help out a lot of other dudes, help yourself out, and go to manscape dot com right now. Again that promo code JOEYP that's joeyp for twenty percent off and free shipping from manscape dot com. Your balls will thank you, And now back to the action, Derek Brown, give me another name on your list of the wide receivers in their third year that you think have the potential to hit one status. I'm gonna go to a guy that broke out as the number one wide receiver in his own offense and there's nothing things standing in his path to sit here and repeat that this year. And that's Darnel Mooney. I mean, in the five games without Alan Robinson in the lineup last year, you're looking at a guy that was on pace for eighty eight receptions, one hundred and sixty three targets, and over thirteen hundred receiving arts. I know it's a small five game sample, but he checks all these different boxes that I talked about with Michael Pittman, and even if you look at different high like different types of correlation to Okay, maybe they didn't get the touchdowns, but are they getting the volume and things like that. His receiving arts per game would have been wide receiver seven. Looking at the splits without all Robinson last year and receiving arts per game Although it sounds like a really rudimentary stat it correlates high to year after year wide receiver production because a lot of it's a function of volume and talent. So looking at Darnel Mooney, who's taking away the volume? Okay, nobody Vilas Jones, Hello, no no, no, no, no. Cocabat is going to be their number two pass catcher. But Darnell Mooney showed last year he does have the talent. I know he's slighted, but he showed he can win. Outside this coaching staff, they'll move him around the formation and get him loose, and they're really the thing that darnel'mooney needs this year to get him up to that level. Because again I don't think the talent or the volume are the concerns. It's the touchdowns. Because he only had eleven red zone targets last year unless he's breaking off big plays. That was thirty eighth amongst wide receivers. So he does need the touchdown bump because even with these great splits without Alan Robinson, he's pacing for three touchdowns on the season. He's going to need more than that to jump up into this wide receiver one category. But outside of touchdowns, which guys we know is flukey year over year. That's why I pointed to all the other metrics that I cited. He has all of the other things, like he's checking different boxes. And so if we get Justin Fields taking a step forward in his sophomore year, if we get Darnel Moody used more creatively in the red zone, I mean he could be He's that dark horse top twelve wide receiver that's going to come out of a place like I mean, we've seen like Alan Robinson came out of just dumpster Fireville. In previous years, we've seen wide receivers do it that have not been on good offenses or you know, top five, top ten scoring offense. So it's possible. It's also funny to me because Chicago's been a place where it's been tough to be a prolific passer period. They've never had a quarterback throw for four thousand yards in the season, Not Jay Cutler, not Orton, not any of those guys, and Justin Fields would be the first to do it. That would be interesting if he did. But I think you're right, de Bro, that's the one thing you keep coming back to. Can the quarterback get him there? Can he get him that touchdown over? Can he get him the enough yards to reach this mark? Everything is lined up. Mooney's one of my favorite guys. A couple years ago in his rookie year, that game that he had, I think it was against the Bucks on a Thursday night, Watching that kid fight for the football in those big spots, I was like, who is this Darnell Mooney guy? I want to watch more of him, and I'm telling you right now, I am hopeful he can get there, and if Justin Fields takes that next step, he would certainly be one of these guys who has the potential to reach wide receiver one status. Andrew ericson who's another guy for you that might be able to reach that status now that they're in their third year in the league. I'm gonna go with San Francisco forty nine Ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, And I think a lot of us thought that Ayuk would have the debo year from last year where I had a really impressive rookie season. He was basically a top five wide receiver for a large stretch of time from weeks three through fifteen during his rookie year because of injuries to George Kittle and to Deebo Samuel and I you've just ate up all of the opportunity in the forty nine ers offense over that time. So we were expecting big things from him in twenty twenty one. He was going ahead of Deebo Samuel. A lot of drafts. I drafted Ayuk in front of Deebo Samuel, And yeah, I know I was wearing a clown mask for the majority of the season because of that that mistake that I had made. So weeks one they said everyone made that mistake Ericson In all fairness, he's I mean, in terms of ADP, it was clear where we were and Debo was hurt perennially, so nobody And how good was that Ayuk finish in twenty twenty I mean, it was fantastic. Everybody thought that's where it was going, but it wasn't. Yep. So, and that's important to we remember with some of these guys that really flashes rookies and then kind of have you know, not lackluster second years. Deebo Samuel was a perfect example of that, Like, do not bury the guys that don't necessarily take the leap in year two because that talent potential was still there as a rookie. It's more important, honestly that they show out as a rookie in their first year than I think as a second year player. Soot, But at the beginning of this season or this past season, weeks one through seven, he was he ranked ninety eight out of one hundred and two wide receivers and yards per oute run. It was a horrible He was in the doghouse. He was dealing with an injury that kind of threw threw him off in training camp. The coaches just didn't have a lot of trust in him. But towards the second half of the season, when they converted Debo more into the running back role, Iook became the traditional wide receiver one on the forty nine ers offense. His yards per oute run increased to two point one six, which ranked thirteenth. From Week eight onward, he averaged thirteen point one fantasy points per game as the wide receiver twenty four, and he ranked sixteen yards after the catch per se. So he kind of showed again what he had done as a rookie. Towards the end of last season, and basically it's like Yuke. If you can just kind of put together your end of seasons like finishes into one sixteen game stretch, then we could see a wide receiver one season from Brandon Iukau. His target rate per out run twenty one percent during the second half of the year, was the same as Deebo Samuels. So again that's trying to take out in factoring that Debo was playing running back. When they were both running routes, they were both seeing equal opportunities in the passing game. So I think that I at least I think with Debo, I think we're going to see some regression from him just in terms of his production. I just don't expect him to score eight rushing touchdowns. Again, maybe I'm crazy, I don't know. I just don't think that's going to happen with Debo. And if those touchdowns come down, where are they coming from? Are they coming through the passing game? Is Brandon and you going to see more scores because I think that's something that can volt players up, and I think that's why we see so much variance a year to year what the wide receiver one position is like scoring double digit touchdowns back to back to back season. It's really hard to do. And when you score double digit touchdowns, you'll find it. It's very easy to finish as a top twelve wide receiver because of the boost that you get from that production. So Brandon and Yuk for me, is my third guy? All right, de bro, who's your third guy from the thirty year class? So I guess I'm gonna go low hanging fruit again. But this is it's the best tasting for to be honest. Oh Weeks, it's delicious. I mean it is though, But I mean, look, he's got a massive upside. And everybody was talking about him last year, and I think we saw both injuries because Dak dealt with some things as well as the injuries around him. Citee Lamb could take that leap forward this year. All the efficiency metrics were still in place last year to vault him into this realm of wide receiver one territory. He was twentieth in yards per out run, he was wide receiver fifteen and receiving yards per game wide receiver sixteen in yak per reception. Like all, he needs his volume and I think he's going to get it this year. Michael Gallup. We're hearing talks like maybe he doesn't start the year, or one hundred percent, maybe he goes on the pup. Then you're looking at a passing attack. And this has all come down to Okay, Almara Cooper's out of town as well. Ceedee Lamb there, Dallas is telling us Ceedee Lamb is going to beat the guy and they're going to move him back inside regardless of even if Gallop is not going to be healthy. I think Ceedee Lamb is going to play a ton out of the slot like we saw in his rookie season, because even if Gallop's not out there, they could run James Washington out there with Jalen Tolbert on the outside to keep Ceedee Lamb on the inside and just let him dominate and eat up nickel corners. So Ceedee Lamb, like I said, low hanging fruit. But he's a guy that you're probably gotta to pay up in a lot of drafts. But the ceiling is there, It's absolutely there, and he's such a mismatch in that position in the slot, especially when you play against those teams that don't have the corners that move. It's just look this is the guy wanted to be a wide receiver one so bad last year unfortunately fell a little short. But I'm ready to love again. And the low hanging fruit, I'm telling you, as somebody's five to seven, that's the one I'm going for. It's excellent, recommended to everybody. All Right, let's talk about the guys in their second year. Now. Obviously takes a little bit more for these guys to hit a little less time in the league, but certainly a lot of potential. And some of these guys we're gonna talk about next flashed some wide receiver one type games, but unfortunately didn't quite hit that mark. So let's talk about some guys in their second season. Andrew will start with you again. We'll go back over. Give me a guy, second year player that you think has the upside to be a wide receiver one. I'm gonna go with New York Jets wide receiver Elijah Moore. Basically, when you look at his season last year, during his last six games, he was the wide receiver two overall and fantasy points scored, and that was when he was catching passes from Mike White, Zach Wilson, and Josh Johnson. One of Josh Johnson's two teams that he played for last year. Maybe we remind you everyone. So look, sixteen point one Fantasy points per game over that stretch ranked fifth if it had been you know, during the remainder of the season. So you definitely feel a lot of like ayuk vibes or oh my god, ayuk vibees from Elijah Moore's season las I think they would be iibes. So I think it's okay because he did it with not there really wasn't much around him, like like there was Jamison Crowder was hurt, Corey Davis was hurt, So he was really the only man in town. And that's not the case here in year two with Elijah Moore because they drafted Garrett Wilson. But I can't help but think that the situation reminds me of a poor man's like Te Higgins and Jamar Chase, where you have this super talented player and you know, Zach Wilson taking a step in year two potentially, you know, it's a lot to ask for Zach Wilson to be anything like Joe Burrow and Garrett Wilson's obviously not the talent of Jamar Chase. But I think that Elijah Moore's rookie year was similar to te higgins rookieyear, and it was really productive. And then you were we were all kind of like ready to buy into more like all the way, and then they just drafted this guy in the top ten. You're like, oh, man, like we have to lower we got a temper expectations now with Elijah Moore like we had to do to someone with te Higgins. But that didn't stop d Higgins from balling out because he's uber talented. And that's how I feel about Elijah Moore. He averaged twelve PPR points per game, and as a second round pick, that's the same type of average that guys like AJ Brown, Deebo, Samuel Juju, Smith, Schuster, Michael Thomas, Chase, Claypool, and he aforementioned T Higgins average as rookies also a second round pick, So he fits in a tier of category of these second round receivers that take massive leaps in year two. So even though the situation maybe is an ideal, I'm going to bet on the talent winning out with Elijahmore. You know. It's funny. I also think that when we get closer to draft day, they're gonna have a lot more Garrett Wilson buzz and I think more Stock is going to drop a little bit in certain drafts, and if he does, I think he's an interesting pounce Because I agree with you. There upside is there. Let's take a quick break in the action to tell you about Christine Auction. My friends, there is no better place to go than Pristine Auction when you're looking for the coolest sports memorabilia that you're gonna find anywhere. Everything there is authentic and back by that certification of authenticity and not everything there is super crazy expense. If I know some of you are in a budget, but that doesn't mean you can't have some fun and bid on some cool stuff. And when you use that promo code Fantasy Pros, you can start today and get five dollar credits on us. That's right, five dollars. Just start bidding with that promo code Fantasy Pros. When you sign up at Pristine Auction dot com, that's pri sti nyauction dot com. It's quick and free to register. They've got amazing stuff on there. We're talking helmets, jerseys, we're even talking about baseball stuff. Basketball stuff, college football, you name it. They've got it over there. And it's not just sports memorabilia. Two, they've got cool wrestling things. They've got art, they've got so many things that will make your head spin. But you can't get involved. You can't get the cool stuff in your house unless you start bidding today. And when you do, make sure you use that promo code Fantasy pros at Pristine Auction. That's Pristine Auction dot com. And now back to the action d bro who's got some upside in year two of their career to be a wide receiver. One. Oh, come on, guys, it's for Shot Bateman, Sison. It's solutely Shot Bateman. And talk about low hanging fruit. This is like a potato. It's like under the ground. He's like, I'm gonna pull it out, low hanging fruit. It's not even fruit. It's a bit st hey, willing to get the shovel, willing to get to pull out the shovel because and I'm not digging myself a hole here. But like, people look at Rashad Bateman and then the context of this offense, and I'm like, how how can he not They're like, oh, it's just run heavy. Um, it's Lamar throwing him and it was running back throwing him the ball does everybody had to understand that Marquise Brown, like commanded the twelfth highest target chair twenty first inn are our chair last year he was the first six weeks of the season, I mean, and I had to sit there and eat it because he was terrible the year before. He would run the wrong route, he would have ball goes through his hands. The only time he would score any of that stretch. Remember two years ago where he scored like every week, is because some defender would fall down in front of him and he would just run. And that's it was the craziest thing to watch. You would that's the stuff that doesn't show up in the box score. When you watch the games. You see it and you go, I can't believe he's gonna get away with another one. And then next week, I can't believe he's gonna get away with another one. Was brilliant. But I'm with you, dude, So what is holding Bateman back? I think nothing, honestly nothing. All we need is a full season to see it unfold. And you look at the target chair and everything that Marquise Brown got last year. And I'm not going to be hyperbolic and saying this Bateman is a more talented player than Markuise Brown. So do we believe that he can command that type of target chair in this offense? Hell even maybe more of a year because Sammy Watkins is gone. It's basically him and Mark Andrews and a host of other shmows that are behind them that are gonna get targets. And I just want to remind everybody the type of prospect that Rashad Bateman was coming into the league. Because he was hurt to begin the year, then he had to get up to speed really fast coming off of a long layoff and build rapport with Lamar Jackson. But this is a guy coming into the league who was as a twenty twenty prospect twelfth in yards per roup run against band coverage, nineteenth against zone coverage. He was an eighty first percentile college dominator and a ninety third percentile breakout age. That type of talent didn't go by the wayside people after one year where we didn't even see him play a full season, and now Baltimore is saying, all right, I can just ship Marquis Brown over to Arizona. It's all good because we have a guy here that we think can take that leap and be the spearhead with Mark Andrews for this passing attack. All in, all in for Rashod Bateman season on the ECR over on fantasypros dot Com, Bateman is wide receiver thirty three right now. It's terrible disagree. That's why I wanted to bring it up because I agree. But maybe if we maybe, if we just tell our listeners, it'll be okay. But I wanted to go up too high. But this is the thing. You get Bateman as a wide receiver three. Gabriel Davis is a wide receiver three. Some of these names we're talking about, we're talking about guys that are going to take a jump potentially from wide receiver three draft range to wide receiver one. Let's go back to more of these second year talents. Give me another name, Andrew Ericson that you think has that potential to leapfrog into the wide receiver one conversation. I'm gonna go with DeVonta Smith, wide receiver for the Philadelphia Eagles. I think that his rookie year is kind of being overlooked. Because it wasn't the Jaylen Waddle season, it wasn't the Jamar Chase season, and DeVonta Smith as the other, you know, top fifteen first round pick from that class. I think it's a little bit overlooked, but I mean he was really good given with what he had to work with last year. Remember after Week seven, the Eagles were like, you know what, we're not throwing the ball anymore, Like we're just gonna run the ball. And it's really hard for a wide receiver produce in an offense that's literally running the ball on more than fifty percent of their plays, and that's exactly what happened with the Eagles. But Smith still finished tenth overall in air yard chair was top twenty in PFF receiving rate among receivers at least one hundred targets. So it was a really good rookie season that if Chase and Wattle work breaking records, we'd be talking about. Smith was like, Wow, man, this guy had like a really great rookie. He's gonna want to see what he can do. Stepping into year two, he had a twenty one percent target share, which I think means he's gonna still command targets in this offense, and the hurliest to overcome is AJ Brown's arrival into the offense as a true alpha. And I do expect Aja Brown to be the alpha in this offense. But look, we talk about running backs getting hurt, receivers get hurt too, and A J. Brown has a long track record of knee injuries, Like the guy has gotten knee surgery. I feel like at the end of every season he's played, and I'm sure that had to play into the Titans wanting to move on from AJ Brown. And I love A J. Brown like I'm drafting him in the second round all day long, but I realize that there is some concern with him staying healthy long term. And if there's an injury that's going to occur with Brown, then DeVante Smith showed as a rookie that he's not one of these players where when you put him as the number one and you're like, oh no, like now he's gonna face all the good corners, He's not gonna to do anything, Like I don't believe that. Like I think Smith can rise to the occasion and command targets like he showed last year and an offense that I expect to throw the ball much more than they did last year. You don't trade for a J. Brown because you're gonna run the ball on more than fifty percent of your plays, like you trade it because you're ready to take a step forward and throw the ball down field, which I do think even with Brown entrenched as the underneath possession receiver, I think Smith is actually going to be the vertical threat in this offense. So I think there's splash play potential with DeVante Smith, and if he's going up against number two corners, if we could see him have a lot of productive weeks, that could vault him up into wide receiver one status. So the caveat being is that they would have to be at least some miss time from a J. Brown for Smith to reach this number. Correct, Yeah, I mean, being realistically speaking, it's because you can't have Jalen Hurts be the good is the support and offense is going to have two wide receivers that would that would be definitely aggressive. But again, there are always every it seems like every single season. Be interested to go back and look, but you know, we see a lot of time where two wide receivers from the same team both finish as wide receiver once so right, but typically they have a quarterback, yes, you know who's very very good. Yeah, I would not. I would not, Yeah, I would not put I would not put Hurts into that category as of right now. No offense, de Bro. I know you love Jalen hurt but I'm just sitting back. It's be realistic. He's not a prolific thrower of the football. I'm not saying he can't take another step forward this year. Of course he can. Um. You know, Russell Wilson took big steps forward in his career early on, right, I mean that you could always there's always room to get better. I mean Josh Allen, look out much work he put in. Look how amazing he is at this point. A lot of people never thought he would develop into that kind of passer. Different arm talent, but still same concept. All right, let's go back to you here. Give me another second year dude who might become the dude as a wide receiver one, de Bro. Well, I'm going to wipe off the slander and I'm going to do I talked about this passing attack on a previous episode, and I'm going to lead off with it's nasty, it's gross. I'm not telling you that you that you don't have to pinch your nose before I give you this name. But Kadarius Tony, who in the Giant's passing attack are we looking at going to step forward for them? It's a Kenney Galladay starving shepherd, Luanda Robinson. Who's their tight end? No, no, no, no, no, it's not Ricky Sills Jones. Cadarius Tony. When we saw him on the field last year, he flashed. I know it was a small sample size, but this team is probably gonna throw a good bit with Brian Dable. I don't see them just going like we're gonna top be a top five rushing rate team. Don't see that happening. And considering the depth chart around him, plus the efficiency that Cadarius Tony showed us last year in a small sample because Tony, amongst all wide receivers in fifty and more targets, was eleventh yards per out run. He was eighth in yak per reception, he was sixth in targets per snap. So when he was on the field and he was healthy, I knew it wasn't much. He was getting a lot of looks and their passing attack and if we believe again like targets are earned, he was earning them at a high rate. So now all we have to see is, okay, does the health comply. Is Daniel Jones just not got awful and if those things happen, yes, I get that, I am kind of going with the uglier, nastier teams and it's maybe you've got to squint a little bit harder to visualize some of this stuff. But Kadarius Tony, he's checking a lot of efficiency boxes that if we get the full season out of him, he gets the volume that I think he could rise to the occasion here. Well, he also seen the ability to take over games, which is he might not be the kind of guy who could fall into the consistency room of a wide receiver one, but in terms of if he has a couple of smash games at the end of the day, the points might twittle up. And I think that's a different way of looking at it. Doesn't have to be the guy who does it like Cooper Cup every week he's just amazing. There might be five amazing games or off the chart games for Tony and then some other not so great ones. There's certainly the possibility there. Do you worry about his size at all too, being a little bit smaller he's six foot about one ninety four, Not essentially, I mean that's not how he wins with physicality. It's all foot speed and how he how he gets releases off the line. So his size doesn't really come into much to play unless like you want to go down like the injury rabbit hole and look at it that way, but just straight up like in a vacuum. I'm not so worried about the size. And I like the fact that you talked about like the differences of ceiling games and that helping the vault. Don't think it's funny every single time that somebody like posts the screenshot of like a game log of a wide receiver and they say, hmm, does this guy look like a wide receiver? One? To you, every wide receiver is volatile. Unless you're a Cooper Cup last year, you're gonna have peaks and valleys. That's called playing the wide receiver position. People, they have ceiling games, they have other games where they're just they're not great. None of these wide receivers are going out and giving you unless you're a Cooper Cup of last year, giving you a hundred yards on a touchdown every freaking week. So don't come at me with, oh, look at this game log. Oh you think he's really gonna get up there? That's every wide receiver. Take a note, everybody, do not come to Debro's house with a game log. Don't go fight, don't close that door right your face. Take this game log, get out, take your pamphlets with you. Let's have some fun here because sometimes we do get some rookies who become wide receiver ones. Now I ask both of these two fine young gentleman here to rank the possibility of the rookie wide receivers getting to this level. So here are the ranks, and I'm gonna go five through one for both and then we're gonna have a little fun time here. So Andrew Ericson again, this is the possibility of these guys getting there. Jamison Williams was Ericson at number five. Then his four was Garrett Wilson sky Moore A three, Traylon Burks at Drake London at one. Derek Brown ranked them, Christian Watson at five, christ O Lava four Traylon Burks at three, sky more to Drake London at one. I want to start with Drake London because you both had him as number one. Now you guys are telling me again, here we go again. We're gonna have another argument about this. So we just set up all of Andrew even called me elegant on the show that happened. In case you didn't catch it, rewind the podcast, go back to the beginning, and he said elegantly described you have to have the quarterback play in order to get there. So, Derek Brown, you're telling me Marcus Mariota could be elegant enough to make Drake London a wide receiver one in his rookie season. I think Drake London can be elegant enough to elevate Marcus Mariota. He doesn't have to be the film of the ball. I think it could be the other way around him. I think Drake London could be that good. Give me a circumstance where that's happened recently in the last five hours, and don't tell me Kirk Cousins, because Kirk Cousins is far better throw over the football than Marcus Mariota. I'm not saying that. Joe Burrow is not immensely talented, but do you remember what he did in his rookie season And they said, oh, I don't know if Joe Burrow can throw deep. He was pretty bad outside the numbers. And then they said, okay, let's get you a really talented wide receiver, and oh my lore, we're completing deep passes. People. Marcus Mariota is not great, but if you go back to all those Time's days, who the hell is he throwing to? Richard Matthews Delanney Walker? Are these really the guys that are going to carry us to the promised Land? Like we could easily make a decent case, Joe, that Marcus Mariotte was kind of between offensive coordinators and everything else, kind of set up to fail in Tennessee too. It's fair, that's fair. You also had Drake London. So now it's your turn to try to sell me. You did an okay job, Derek. I want to hear Eric take down this one. Well, sell me on Drake London being able to reach that. I don't know, I don't I don't know, Joe, I think you So I was going back and forth actually with Burke's in London at number one and see you one out of this number one. I think I might. I think I might switch it up because I lack of conviction you make it a really good I mean, Drake London's not my guy. I know he's Debros guy, but when you and that's something that I've been preaching, you know, on this podcast, talking about targeting guys and good offenses. And I guess, like the reason I put London ahead of Burks, I was thinking from Okay, I think that both guys will probably see pretty similar target shares in their offenses. I'm not really concerned because Drake London's going to just see more passing volume because the thoughts I feel like are going to have to throw more. I don't think they're going to be as a competitive team. But when you're looking at red zone opportunities, look, Ryan Tanne'll say what you want, but he has a track record. He's done it before, like he's fueled wide receiver ones before with A J. Brown. And obviously a J. Brown has something to do with it because of how talented he is. But Burke's still first round pick, a guy that can make plays after the catch, and I did have Burks here at number one first, and he has an equal, if not better opportunity than Drake London in year one. So yeah, I'm gonna probably move Burke's back up to number one, moved Drake London back down to number two. Joe, you have convinced me this podcast is a think tank. That's what we are. We are trying to all sit here and bringing good information and then try to make the best decisions. And I think the hardest thing for all of us who play fantasy, who analyze fantasy, is to look at a player and want to buy into the talent and then continuously forget about the circumstance. We want to have that player succeed beyond the circumstance that that players given and unfortunately, in the game of football, you need all those things to break right, sometimes the anomaies happen. I hope it does. And I think, just for the record, if one guy could do it and break it, I think you're right. I mean, the more Drake London you watch, the more you think, yeah, he could be a guy that helps out a Mariota. But what I don't understand is nobody said sky More as number one, and he's got the best quarterback by far on this list, Okay, and possibly the biggest need there in this offense, because I don't know. I mean, we've all talked about Juju, We've all talked about, you know, what they've done, what they haven't done this offseason. So besides the number one guy, you've got who else? And I know you've got them ranked, but really, who do you think deep down in your cockles, Derek Brown could be the rookie that becomes that guy. Is it just the size Drake London? Is it's sky More because you got him too? Is it somebody else? You could write that script for a little bit easier because of what that offense needs to be in year one for that wide receiver, I think it's sky More. I think it's it's probably between him and it's between sky More, And honestly, I think it's Chris A. Lava. I think that you look at those two guys and the Olave point I almost moved him. I was debated. Two through four was pretty fluid for me because Scott Chris Lave, We're hearing all the stuff about like Michael Thomas might not be healthy and good lord like, at this point of the year, and he missed all of last season and he's still not one hundred percent. We can't assume Michael Thomas is going to just be there and be the old Michael Thomas. We can't assume any of that. So you're looking at Chris A. Lava, and I think that the Saints are going to throw more this year than they did last year, because lord, they can't. They can't run anymore than they did last year. They were top five, They're played slow. They basically did everything to say this offense is bad, we're going to grind it out and somehow we're gonna win games. And they did that. But this year you have Chris lave If. If Michael Thomas is not there, he's competing for targets with who, Alvin Kamara, Adam Troutman, Dry really like, we can't see him step forward. So I think for me, it's sky More for the obvious reasons. One I just love sky More and two you talked about the quarterback play. We know that Kansas City is still going to be a top ten scoring offense, so all the parts of pieces are there for him to smash. But I think Chris Lave if we're not we're going off for one of these guys that's not in the top three right now. He Honestly, I wanted to make a case and I wanted to push him up into the top three. But it's not just where I finalize these because I think Traylon Burkes has such an easy path to volume. Yeah Burkes, As as Andrew said, Burkes has a very easy path to bomb. That was just two slash one. That was very flu and I agree, I think you know, but in all honesty, you could see a lot of these rookie wide receivers all of a sudden becoming the dude very quickly. But what's so funny to me about skuy Moore. It feels really eerily reminiscent of when Justin Jefferson was drafted and he wasn't the first guy off the board, and he wasn't the second guy off the board, But when you looked at the need and what was coming down the pike for that offense, you could certainly write the script where you go, yeah, this guy could be phenomenal, and maybe he has not talked about as much as some of the other guys that went before him, but you put it with the right quarterback in the right situation, with the right need all of a sudden, that could be it real quick. Before we end today, let's have some fun. Give me a wild card second or third year guy that we didn't talk about again. This is wild card for fund So if you're right about it, we can play this clip on social media forever and ever, and if you're wrong, people will forget because it was at the end of the show. So Andrew ericson, do you have a wild card second or third year wide receiver that you wanted to talk about today? We didn't squeeze in that. You think if everything broke right, it could be a wide receiver? One oh man? What? So basically this is going back to the debo thing because it just it just burns in my memory how how wrong it was about writing off debo. And one of the reasons I remember fading Debo was because he had despite the fact he had a pretty productive rookie year, the a dot. I was like just so honed in on his second year average jepth of target, which was garbage. It was like it was like a running back. It was like behind line of scrimmage, and I was like, dude, there's no upside here, Like what am I doing? And the player that has that that happened to him last year was Leisca Chenalt, Like that's what happened Channelt last year in year two after a very good rookie season like channel, if you look at his rookie numbers, very productive as a rookie, and last year he almost had a hundred targets. Yeah, it was terrible, but everyone in everyone, everyone is getting the pass in Jacksonville, Trevor Lawrence is get in the past. Etn's get in the past, like oh it's all Or Meyer. But like Chennault is just like buried now. And I get that they've they have moved on from him in terms of adding in other pieces, But what if he goes to a different team, Like, I still think Chnault has talent and I think that he's shown that he is a talented player, and he got a raw deal last year. It's like, dude, like it's not his fault the team. The team was being coached by a legit donkey last year, so of course he didn't find any success. So I still think Channault is someone that I will not be surprised whatsoever. He has a much more productive year than we all are giving him. I mean, he's free now. He's just like everyone has written him off. And when you just look at the raw numbers of him over the last two seasons, like the guy's still seeing targets. And it wasn't that long ago that everyone was like really disappointed by Davante Adams despite the fact that he was still getting targets in his offense, and then he broke out all over the place. So I'm just saying, Levis Kasld, I think, is someone to keep an eye on. And he's I mean, right now, he is like free, He's freeing Dynasty. He's like free basically everywhere. And it just takes one team an injury. All letstraight for Chennault and then boot and then they're gonna see how productively. But everyone's looking for the next Debo Samuel, and Levis Kasult is literally right there in Jacksonville for free, and we all know he has a very similar profile to Debo. So I don't know, if I was the Patriots man, I'd be coming especial. I'm calling him down. Andrew ericson New England general manager Derek Brown is there a name. You don't have to say one. If here isn't one, I don't want to force your hand. But if you had another guy that you were twyning with putting on the list today, but you didn't for whatever reason, who's that one? That's like a deep sleeper version of this. I mean, I'll just stay in the same kind of we're gonna go with a good offense. I'm just gonna go a little bit further down to the depth chart. And if we're wrong about who's going to be the starters or the guy that breaks out, give me kJ Hamler. We've seen the deep speed. The problem is as bad quarterback play that can't throw down the damn field in true Locke and whoever else. And he's had injuries. We've seen ceiling games from kJ Hamdler. We've seen the upside from kJ Hamdler. He was a good prospect coming out of Penn State. We can know the speed he can take the top off of any defense. So if it's not going to be Jerry Judy, if Courtland Sutton's not going to be the guy, if we have injuries and people get off of their Tim Patrick bandwagons, I mean it honestly could be kJ. I like that one. All right. That was fun. See I promised everybody fun and I delivered. Also, I'm going to promise somebody a debo Samuel autographed helmet, So make sure you go to Fantasy Pros dot com slash contest to enter today by subscribing to our YouTube channel, YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros, where we have all the amazing podcasts, all the short form long term videos. Everything we got, It's there over on our YouTube channel, So subscribe to that today at Fantasy Pros and then of course click that bell for notifications. Then go over to Fantasy Pros dot com slash contest once you have the YouTube subscription, and then you can go get the debo Samuel helmet thanks to our friends at Pristine Auction dot com. And also remember it's Best Ball Season. Best Ball Draft Kit is available on Fantasy Pros right now Fantasypros dot com slash best Ball. There you go. We keep it simple here so you remember it. The content is free, but we've got extra content for our subscribers, So subscribe today and become a Premium member of Fantasy Pros. You can access even more great best ballation. That draft kid is loaded with everything you need to be successful. I want to thank the sponsors of today's show, including manscaped. Head over to manscape dot com right now get twenty percent off and free shipping when you use that promo code Joey P. That's right, Tell them I sent you and get your situation under control. Twenty percent off and free shipping over at manscape dot com. Also, don't forget about Pristine Auction. Pristine Auction dot com. That's pri sti ny auction dot com. Use that promo code Fantasy Pros and get five dollars on us and start bidding today on the coolest sports member Bilia that you ever seen in your whole life. That'll do it for us, But the story of the game goes on for Derek Brown and Andrew Ericson. I'm JOEYP. We'll see you next time. Kids. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. Follow us on Twitter and Instagram at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros.