00:00:00
Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place your bets. It is me Joey p Joe Pi Zapia and this is BP NFL. It's week fifteen. It's time to look at to the props with the Welsh and the Andrew Erickson. They've got five props each lined up for you. We've got some touchdown calls. That contest has gotten way too close. I don't like it at all. And of course maybe we'll touch on a little bit. What was all last night? Thursday Night football? The Buccaneers, Welsh, we the bleeding cannot be stopped. It's orange blood everywhere. The Buccaneers just keep losing games and Kirk Cousins, Kirk Cousins keeps carving him up on an annual basis. What is happening to the Bucks?
00:00:36
Speaker 2: I mean, how about stop a tight end?
00:00:39
Speaker 3: Well, we thought was the most overrated tight end ever and then he just puts up the third best tight end performance I think since the year I was born. It was wild to watch Kyle Pitts live up to all the expectations.
00:00:52
Speaker 2: And I think what's.
00:00:53
Speaker 3: More brutal about it is this was the full completion of this team. You know, what was the interview before. They're like, Baker, how do you feel that you now have all your pieces and everybody's healthy and everyone's there, And He's like, I feel like losing, you know, like.
00:01:04
Speaker 2: That's what it essentially happened.
00:01:07
Speaker 3: It was pretty actually shocking, to be honest with you, for them to kind of drop it and not be able to put all that together. But it wasn't you know, it wasn't just on Baker. The offense, even though Baker seems way more stoic and confused at the offensive line point when any type of pressure is coming in the defense was just Cake.
00:01:24
Speaker 2: It was. It was bad. It was depressing if you were a Bucks fan. I'm not so I'm not depressed, but it was rough.
00:01:30
Speaker 1: Andrew, we talk a lot about the Best Bets Show. If you miss it, you can go back and watch about some of these games that are very heavy favorites this week, right, A lot of big giant underdogs, a lot of one sided potential games. How does that affect as you're you know, starting to work on analyzing props because you know, one side of games sometimes can be really difficult to kind of plug in the stuff that you like, because you just don't know our team's going to shut things down in the third and fourth quarter if they're up by a lot, or things going to go sideways, and some of those games that we never saw coming.
00:01:57
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's always tough to handicap that and to consider that. But again, sometimes it's just better to look at how many points does this team imply to score. They're gonna score a lot of points. Chances are that's good for those offensive players. You bet the overs on those offensive players. You bet the unders on the players that are getting blown out. So again, you can always get beat by garbage time. You can always get beat by a back door cover here and there. But ten those things tend to regress over time and usually aren't the best bets to make, unlike the ones that we're going to talk about here today.
00:02:26
Speaker 1: All Right, you gotta get better than last week. Two Welsh one in four ericson two and three ericson. You're just under five hundred Welsh still over five hundred four of the year and a touchdown contest. Oh my god, Welsh at twelve erics and I tied at thirteen. I didn't get any last week. I gotta get a bunch this week.
00:02:41
Speaker 2: I hit my almost four to one.
00:02:43
Speaker 3: So if we were doing ROW, I'd love to have seen this as an ROI thing this next year, because that was a close to four to one tight end call. But that was about the only good thing I had last week.
00:02:51
Speaker 1: So next year we'll have that technology. All right, Welsh, why don't you kick us off here with the first of our props for week fifteen. Obviously, the first one up here is for the New York Giants and Washington Commander's contest, one that could have a surprisingly high total. So let's talk about Terry mclaurin's output in that game.
00:03:08
Speaker 3: So if you listened to any of the shows that Ericson and I have done this week, Ericson and I do quite a few shows together. We're a team, and we would have given you a preview, specifically on the Extra Point podcast, which is on our discord over on Fantasy Pros. You would have got a little bit of a tease of the few of the things that we really really liked. And I had talked about this one and I made it my first one of the week. It is Terry McLaurin. I'm all in on Terry mcluurin. This week, we're going with the receiving yards sixty point five, fourteen targets. Those fourteen targets they were not last week. Those were the Jayden Daniels targets and then he gets hurt in the Mariota those are the targets. As Terry mclauin return back to game action with Marcus Mariota. Marcus Mariota targeting fourteen times. He got seven for ninety six in that big game against the Denver Broncos. Phenomenal start, even when he was just getting his legs fresh under him. Now you've got Mariota as the starter of this week, You've got a great matchup. Giants giving up the in top ten in passing yards allowed overall on the season. They defensively grade out according to PFF twenty eight of thirty two against wide receivers. I think it's a prime matchup where Mariota is throwing the ball a bunch more. Terry McLaurin is his target. As Ericson says, anything but Deebo Samuel should be your fantasy output and in your prop output, I think that equates to Terry McLaurin Terry McLaurin is also the big target, you know, the big play target guy. This is something with a really bad defensive matchup, or at least on their side bad defensively. Terry McLaurin could get eighty percent of this on one catch, and we know he's going to get targeted by Marcus Mariota. Run games also a little banged up. We'll see with the Chris Rodriguez stuff, but either way, and you can run against the Giants. That's probably like the biggest negative you would have in this one. But I think that's going to set up play action and I think that's going to set up Terry McLaurin to kind of eat in this one. So sixty point five receiving yards give me the over all.
00:04:56
Speaker 1: Right, Andrew Erickson, looks like your first prop of the week has a little bit of Joey Pam Lewins because this is one of my things for the Parlays show. Let's talk about Drake may and his passing yard total in this huge game where the divisions on the line with the Buffalo Bills.
00:05:09
Speaker 4: Well, I loved this so much that I third on the Prop show because I think that it deserves for everybody to be part of this, even if it's not part of your parlay. This should be a single player prop bet that you make Drake May over two hundred thirty and a half passing yards. It really is just a number that you look at and think, this guy leads the NFL passing yards and this is what his passing yards prop is set at. He's thrown for two hundred and forty passing yards ten times this season. That's tied for the most of any quarterback this year. He's on a streak of six consecutive games that leads two hundred and forty passing yards, third longest active streak in the NFL this season. He's already thrown for two hundred and seventy three yards against the Bills this season back in Week five, and at home. He's hit this number in all but one home game six out of seven, and in three or four of the game to the Patriots as underdogs this season. So, I mean, usually some of these props you come on here, it's like these kind of vomit players with these really low props. They're like, oh, like, I think you can squeeze right over it. But this one to me is just like, oh, I can bet on a great player in a great game to hit a dramatically low number. So yeah, this one for me is a layup easy, especially with the Bills that actually put one of their Christian Benford was on the injury report added this week. He's probably their best defensive back. And if he doesn't go or he's less than one hundred percent, you're just gonna see Drake may shred this Bill secondary. So I give it you over it.
00:06:27
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a low number. I don't get it, like weather be damned again. People try to tell me last week about how everything was gonna be under because of the weather. How'd that work out? How'd that work out? All right, let's go to Welsh's second selection here, and it's got to do with Rushi Rice now the the Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs right now or in their feelings and rightfully so, I mean they're a six win team on the outside of the bubble looking in another must win game. And I'm getting tired of saying of Welsh on the must win game every single week for the Kansay Chiefs. So how can Rushie Rice's prop market influence the Chiefs. That may be a positive way and maybe our wallets as well.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the Chiefs are definitely, you know, teetering down right now. I wouldn't quite think that they're a team that, you know, win that pressure is put on and when it's important that they're going to just buckle and just pack it in, They're going to go as hard as possible, and that means they need to be more aggressive. I don't even know if that necessarily pushes to this exact prop, but I think they got to get the ball in the air more. But what we did see last week when that must win, big pressure situation was drops. We saw a ton of drops, and we need these guys to pick this back up this week. I'm pretty heavy across multiple props on receptions and the reception guy. When we look across all the wide receivers in this game, it is Rashi Rice. We're going to go to Rashi Rice plus seven catches or over six and a half receptions and it's plus money this week. Rice has hit this in two of his last three games. Found this really interesting over on PFF Rice. Against zone heavy defenses, Rice is targeted at the third highest rate among wide receivers in the end in zone coverage. The Chargers play the fourth highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL. So and what I think is going to be a past heavy situation, Rashee Rice should see a ton of receptions. Projections also like this. Most projections have him at the seven plus markers. So you're getting plus money on seven receptions for Rashi Rice. I know it's a weird situation with the Chiefs didn't hit it last week, had the drops. We're going to bounce back from that. Mahomes is going to target him a bunch and we're gonna get seven receptions plus money Rashi Rice.
00:08:30
Speaker 1: All right, plus money on Rushie Rice. Next one, we're talking about a running back here in one of the many potential blowout games. We've got the Jacksonville Jaguars and a beat up spot where the Jets are playing a third string quarterback. Gross So Travis ATM let's talk about his prop total. It's seventy two and a half rushing yards Andrew it seems like a game where you're gonna have a lead if you are the Jags, and you're gonna be running out some clock late.
00:08:52
Speaker 4: That's the way I hope it plays out because I'm taking the over on Travis Eaton and his rushing yards at seventy two and a half rushing yards. That actually hit this in four of his last six games played. He's kind of been on a low key heater. Usually Travis Eten kind of falls off in the second half of season. Not really been the case this year where they've been really leaning on him, and he's been part of the reason why the Jaguars have been on this hot streak over the last four to six weeks. So the Jets defensively ever since they traded Quentin Williams. I'm saying this on a lot of shows, but just bunts against the run the New York Jets, So I like attacking their defense. You've just seen some running backs recently face them and just have absolute monster games. Eight Chan last week, he didn't play the full game, and he had a monster game in the first half against the New York Jets. Nine running backs in the last seven games have hit at least sixty two rushing yards against the Jets. Seven hit sixty five or more. And like I said, Etn has been going over the number pretty consistently, and I do think they're going to continue to lean on him instead of bay Shell two, who had two fumbles last week. And they even talked about the coaches this week about Etn Hey. When he gets going, he is our workhorse. He can really do a lot of damage. So I like Etn here to go over at home, big total positive game script against Brady Quick Brady Cook. Yeah, give me the jag your RB all right.
00:10:03
Speaker 1: Before we get to the next prop on our list, don't forget to support our sponsor, and that is hard Rock Bet Sports Book. The holidays are here, and the sports schedule is jam packed, tighter than Santa's gift bag. And Week fifteen football is on its way. We got Bowl games coming to NBA college hoops hockey. It's all going down right now. The sleigh is loaded and the hard Rock Bet Sports that gap is here for you to unwrap, and you can start betting on some of these events. Bet five bucks, get one hundred and fifteen bonus bets when your first bet hits, plus your winnings. Stick that and you're stocking. How's that for holiday magic. If you're not sure what to put your first bet on, don't worry because the Hard Rock bet app has launched the brand new for you page, making it easy to follow your favorite teams, players, leagues. They got the stats up, they got everything there. It's also legal in Florida. It's the only one in Florida, by the way, where you have a sports book you get download to your device. Plus, it's there in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado, and Michigan. Coming soon to more states near you. Plus, hard Rock Bet offers new promos daily, so whenever you're listening, just open the app, check out what's in there every single week and download the hard Rock Bet app today so you can make your first deposit and start winning some bonus cash, paybal and bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminal Tribe of Florida and Florida offered by the Seminal hard Rock Digital LLC in other states. Must be twenty one plus in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. Play terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call one eight three to three play wise in Indiana if you are someone you know as a gambling problem, lawts help called one eight hundred and nine with it gambling problem called one hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. All right, let's get to the next prop on the list for the boys here. Well, it's tough to know what we're gonna get from the Indianapolis Colts now that Daniel Jones is out for the year. So how are we going to take a look at Tyler Warren in week fifteen?
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Speaker 3: Yeah, this is the second of my series of plus money receptions that we're going with this week. And I talked about this a lot on all of the show, And you know, it's a risky endeavor because you have no idea what you're getting in with With Philip Rivers hasn't played in five years, he is familiar with the offense. Are they gonna just lean on four hundred and twenty two carries from Jonathan Taylor?
00:12:13
Speaker 2: You don't know. But if Philip.
00:12:15
Speaker 3: Rivers is going to be in that game, there is going to be some passing going on. And I don't think it's going to be big volume passing, and that's where I'm gonna lean on Tyler Warren. I think Tyler Warren will be his safety net, so on Warren himself. Warren has hit this six times this year five or more receptions, including three of his last five rivers. When we look at him last we saw him, he was a slight lean to throwing to tight ends. Before his retirement, he was a little bit above average on his target rate to tight ends versus the league average.
00:12:43
Speaker 2: So that's a positive in general. Then if you go and look.
00:12:47
Speaker 3: At the Seahawks, the Seahawks defense does a lot of things. Well, what it doesn't do is cover tight ends. They have a defensive grade of thirty one out of thirty two against tight ends so far this year.
00:12:56
Speaker 2: And going in to this is a.
00:12:59
Speaker 3: Stat I saw in God, I should have saved the person who put this out. This is going into last week's matchup, but essentially was saying that the Seahawks, ravaging almost seven targets per game around seven the most receptions around just run seven receptions and allowing the third most receiving yards of tight ends. So tight ends are a susceptible piece for the Seattle Seahawks, and that's going to be the safety net for this offense. Plus on top of it. You know, this isn't necessarily this is more to something we'll talk about later, but I think Tyler WARN's gonna be used in a lot of spots. But I think Philip Rivers is going to be looking for safety net stuff when they're trying to move the ball, when the boxes are stacked on Jonathan Taylor first down runs, which would probably happen, you know, every single play, then they're going to be forced into throwing and it's going to be short line stuff. And I think that's where Tyler Warren is going to help a lot. Here, So five receptions from plus one point thirty and that's a Philip Rivers esque number because we're terrified of him, I get it. I'm jumping on on a plus number five receptions for Tyler.
00:14:00
Speaker 1: All Right, Andrew Rickson, we're already discussed Travis ATM and what that game might look like in garbage time, running out the clock. What about the Seattle Seahawks also potentially in that mode in week fifteen.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that Seattle is gonna destroy the Golts. I mean, would he have been surprised if Daniel Jones went up to Seattle with this team and got destroyed by the Seattle Seahawks. Like, No, So now that I still have this forty four year old quarterback coming in, I just I'm just not optimistic about this Colts offense. So I like backing the blowout type of game strip with the Seattle Seahawks, and that leads me to Kenneth Walker over fifty seven and a half rushing yards. The Seahawks have been the run heaviest team this season, calling run plays nearly fifty percent of their plays. Ken Walker has been much better at home than he's been on the road. He's sixty plus rushing yards in three of his last four home games. The last four running decks to face the Indianapolis Colts have given up sixty four rushing yards or have had sixty four or more rushing yards. Now there is a chance that the Colts do get defensive tackled to forest buck back from injury preserve, but he's also missed a lot of time he was dealing with a neck nerve injury, So that's always kind of concerning about how effective he is going to be dealing with the loss of strength with so much time miss. So I'm just buying into the Seahawks laying the hammer on Indianapolis Colts. I mean, Seattle has showed up big in these spots at home as heavy home favorites of touchdowns are more than three to zero against the spread. They're also number one in the NFL in margin of victory seventeen points. So if they're killing this team, I think Kennith Walker. Yes, maybe he's not even in the game in the fourth quarter, but I think he's getting get enough work and see enough explosive plays where he can get to at least sixty rushing yards and take the over on ken Walker.
00:15:40
Speaker 1: All right, make sure you take a look at the propa at Chichiet every single week because that's going to give you all these props, the best lines, the projections too, So sink your sportsbooks are free. Download the Fantasy pros app and the Betting pros app. As you make your run to glory in fantasy, make your run to glory in the betting world too. There's only a couple of regular season weeks left here, or a fantasy didn't work out for it's a perfect time. Start looking a little bit more towards the betting things, and the betting prop cheat sheet is the tool that you all need right now again, passing, rushing, receiving. All the stack categories are there in the prop bet cheat sheet. Go to Betting pros dot com slash props, or just download the app today and start betting smarter, not harder. Next up here, Welsh, we know the Cincinnati Bengals do not farewell against tight ends, so let's talk a little about Isaiah Likely and what he's likely to do in week fifteen.
00:16:27
Speaker 3: This is the final of the series. This is our third book in the plus reception series that we're going to be running, and I am all about Isaiah Likely over Mark Andrews Likely.
00:16:36
Speaker 1: A trilogy, Welsh.
00:16:37
Speaker 3: I gotta see yep this and hopefully this trilogy is going to end better than many other trilogies. Isaiah Likely receptions four plus He's also plus money around plus one thirty is where you're seeing it. Bengals are the worst against tight ends. We talked about Tyler Warren going up against the Seahawks. There's a dicey situations. Zhawks aren't good, but the Bengals are the worst. They grade thirty two to thirty two according to PFF. On average, they're giving up ten targets to tight ends, over seven receptions and.
00:17:04
Speaker 2: Over ninety receiving yards.
00:17:07
Speaker 3: So receiving yards might be a plus that you can play on this, but I like the receptions of this big plus money here trying to go out big towards the end of the year. Likely has been the top tight end option for the Ravens over the last couple of weeks, with twelve targets over the last two games, and he has hit this reception yard prop in both of those games. Plus it would have been even more had those touchdowns not been ruled out of his favor or the one that just plopped out. I like Likely in this situation. He did this against the Bengals. He hit this prop against the Bengals. I think he is the big playmaker option here. His receiving yard prop is also again low, It's relatively low. It's like in the thirties, but for four receptions when he's been hitting this against the Bengals team that is cheeks against tight ends. I'm all about Isaiah Likely on the receptions.
00:17:53
Speaker 1: All right, more likely stuff later in the show too. Andrew ericson, let's do another tight end conversation here, Jue on Johnson. The numbers three and a half receptions for the Saints tight end, we're going over or under undertaker.
00:18:05
Speaker 4: We are going over. But I do have to make one point about Welsh's cheeks reference. You know who was on the injury report with a glute injury, Mark Andrews.
00:18:14
Speaker 1: Who Mark Andrews right.
00:18:15
Speaker 4: The other Ravens tight eds. So it's all coming first full circle with buns, cheeks and glutes that we need.
00:18:23
Speaker 1: There is Jake, but Jake but nice, well done, well done Welsh, well Kaseean Boody too. We can give Booty little parlay. It feels like a parlay somewhere in there. I don't know how we got to figure it out.
00:18:32
Speaker 4: I am going over with Juwan Johnson. This one just kind of stood out to me because I thought there was a lot of value on the number here, over three and a half receptions. He's had at least four catches in every single game he's played since Week seven except for one.
00:18:45
Speaker 1: Last week.
00:18:45
Speaker 4: He even got to four receptions despite the Saints kind of dialing back the passing attack because of the weather that was being played in Tampa Bay. In the first matchup against Carolina, Johnson had four catches on four targets for ninety two yards and a touchdown. So his recepsions prop has really been more around that four and a half number. It's down to three and a half just because I think that last week we didn't see a ton of passing volonging from the Saints. I don't expect that necessarily carry over in dome conditions here at home for the New Orleans Saints. So I would take the over on Juwan Johnson three and a half receptions. He's been hitting this at a pretty high rate.
00:19:18
Speaker 1: All right, We've got one more prop to go for everybody, and then the touchdown calls will be upon us. So Welsh, let's finish strong here with your forty nine. Or is Ricky Pierce all he still goes there? Does he still go to San Francisco?
00:19:30
Speaker 2: You wouldn't know it. This is an all vibes play.
00:19:34
Speaker 3: So if you're looking for all the great data that's going to tell you why this is a lock and a smash. Sorry, this is me and ericson, Me and Erickson are all vibes about this the forty nine ers.
00:19:46
Speaker 2: I mean, since Ricky Pearsall has.
00:19:47
Speaker 3: Come back, you wouldn't know that he's been back. He's been an absolute ghost in that offense. He has not been used whatsoever. Forty nine has been trying to get their feet under them. One of the big changes here is going into the bye week, and I think if you're looking to know not only regroup, you're looking to retool what your offense is going to be coming out of the by I think one thing that is clear to them is they've got to get Ricky Piersall involved back in the offense because prior to the injury, he's hitting these props. This is a low number. We're looking at thirty point five receiving yards when this was an absolute smash every week before he ends up getting hurt. So are there great numbers on targets and everything. There's not because he hasn't been getting them. But Erickson and I both believe he is going to get involved coming.
00:20:29
Speaker 2: Out of this now.
00:20:30
Speaker 3: The other side of this is taking a look at the defensive matchup. This is a great defensive matchup. Eight of the fourteen weeks the Titans have given up thirty or more yards to two plus wide receivers gone up again. So again this isn't like a huge, big crazy number Marcus Harris. Their best corner, you know, grades out pretty well but is likely going to be locked up against Juwan Jennings other corner. You're looking at bottom half fifty nine out of one eleven according to PFF and really really safety coverage grades which actually I like about a wide receiver that's going to come over the top, which that is Ricky Piersol. Projections love this though every projection place has got him over forty and really there's not a lot to go off of, but everybody thinks we're going to get him back in this offense. I believe coming off of the buye this is a clearcut thing that needs to be addressed, will be and it is a really good matchup for that to happen. So super low number Ricky Piersol thirty point five. If he doesn't hit it, he's dead to me and I'll be over. But this is the gross sicko bet vibe bet.
00:21:34
Speaker 2: Of the week.
00:21:35
Speaker 1: Those vibes really come and go quickly around here. I guess gott to say, wellh we hope for Ricky Piersoll's sake, things go all right, all right, Next up here, Kyle Mnnngui. Look, Andrew, there's another one that we've discussed on some other shows, you and I together. We're both in Almanagai this week. The Carrie number is twelve and a half and I think the Undertaker is going to take the over. I got a feeling of it already. Bet this.
00:21:57
Speaker 3: I just want to point out before actually even says it me and actually talked about. This is the first thing I bet this week, if anything.
00:22:02
Speaker 1: Save the bus for last. Let's go in because it's gonna smash.
00:22:05
Speaker 4: And I think it took fifteen weeks, but I have a full card of all overs. All my player props are over. Yeah, that's right, you do look at this is not like an intention like I went out and be like I gotta do all the overs. I actually liked a lot of unders in terms of the game totals this week. So go check out the Best Bet show with myself and Joe. But yeah, this week, I'm doing all overs on a player props and this is my favorite one on the card. Kaya Mnung guy going over twelve and a half carries. It's December at Soldier Field. You have a bowling ball running back in Kyle manong Guy against a Browns defense. It just got boat raced by Tony Pollard, someone that was left for dead on every fantasy football bench, and he went off against this Browns defense. What do you think Ben Johnson's gonna do when he reviews the table, thinks, yeah, I think I could probably run effectively on this Browns defense, especially with them on the road. Malik Collins defensive tackle, he didn't play last week. Mason Graham their other defensive tackle. He's banged up with the rib injury. He hasn't been practicing. So I think the run wild here. And the guy that they feature in feed is rookie Rutgers running back Kyle Manongai. Based on how physical he is. No one's gonna want to tackle this guy when it's zero degree temperatures out, especially the Browns defense on the road. So give me manong Guy over twelve and a half carries again. Last four weeks, he's been averaging fifteen carries per game. That's the same as DeAndre Swift. He actually has fourteen or more in three of his last four games played twelve plus carries in four straight games overall, so I think twelve is like the minimum for me. It wouldn't surprise you if he gets up to twenty carries in this game. Has a monster performance. So give me Kyle Mamanong Guy, the rookie running back to smash the Browns this week.
00:23:39
Speaker 1: I like it. I'm in on it. Got mann Guy shares too that I drafted that I've been playing the last couple of weeks. Been very happy overall with all of those shares. All right, let's get to the touchdown calls, and remember the touchdown score report is also available on Betting Pros. All you have to do is head over to betting pros dot com slash touchdown to to view the very latest in touchdown prop analysis. Again, the touchdown stats, the props to bet the odds, everything is there versus the projections to help identify the very best at anytime touchdown bets only at bettingcrows dot com slash touchdown. I'm going with two here today. I was gonna go and be fancy with the uh the two tight ends, but the Mark Andrews injury popped up yesterday and now I'm not feeling as good about the double tight end touchdown call. So I'm just gonna stick with Isaiah likely plus two thirty and then I'm gonna go with tenor Roa McMillan in a game against the New Orleans Saints at plus one fifty five. So those are pretty good numbers there. I think I can go two for two this week, and I need to. I need to stop crap into bed here. I need to get forward here on this touchdown call. Contest got way too close here. I had a nice lead, and that is disintegrated. Man. I feel like I feel like the Indianapolis Colts when we get the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Well, shout about you where you're going for your touchdown calls in week fifteen.
00:24:48
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's disintegrated by the way, Like Erickson is tied with you and I was I was far I'm one behind both of you and I was way far away.
00:24:55
Speaker 2: I know I've got up good drama.
00:24:56
Speaker 1: It's good ratings for TV.
00:24:58
Speaker 2: So it is pretty good.
00:24:58
Speaker 3: Well kind of in with that, I don't think I've taken a single like minus touchdown bet this entire season. I am going to this week, but it's especially minus one O five minus won ten in any spot, and I'm going to serve with Trevion Henderson just kind of looking through the cart. I think it's some solid like you know, plus one forty one to fifty bets. But I just kept staring at Traveon Henderson and I couldn't get away from it. Bills ranked thirty one to thirty two defensive grade against running backs, specifically this acording PFF twenty four of thirty two in yards after contact. They rank thirty one of thirty two and miss tackles and twenty four of thirty two on their overall defensive front. Oh, by the way, the Bills have given up sixteen rushing touchdowns this year to running backs and at least one rushing touchdown in all but two games. Trevion Henderson book it and then my big play that one's gonna hate it.
00:25:47
Speaker 2: It's gonna be gross. It's Tyler Warren. Now here's it. Now here's part of it.
00:25:50
Speaker 3: Though, and what I said before, because it didn't really account to the receptions. Not only take everything I said with Tyler Warren as far as like receptions go, and see how grading out horrifically five touchdowns they've given up to tight ends. But also we should be looking at Tyler Warren being used in some other spots. Guy can be a running back guy. I mean, the quarterback thing is not going to help me if he throws a touchdown, But don't be surprised if there's any tush push type of situation and he runs out. You're not gonna philip rivers do that. If they do those little inder round things, like Tyler Warren is going to be used in other spots where they need to get creative with a sixty seven year old quarterback behind center. So I really like Tyler Warren on the ROI because the number is like plus three point fifty, so that is super super low against a team that is bad against tight ends and a tight end that get used another spot. So I'm very much in on a Tyler Warren touchdown.
00:26:44
Speaker 1: All right. Ericson Europe give us two tuddies for week fifteen.
00:26:47
Speaker 4: Already talked about my love for common on. Guy gonna see a lot of carries, a lot of rushing yards, and I think he's also going to find Peydrt just because he's really been the guy they've focused mostly in the red zone. He actually had a two point conversion last week where the offensive line just like will their way to push him into the end zone. I think they can see that again here with the Bears playing at home. So I like Manungai, especially at the odds at plus one thirty. Again, it's kind of a process play with me. Take home teams the lead running back in the red zone and bet them to score touchdowns because that's a most likely outcome going to happen. So Manunguy plus one thirty. And then the same thing with Zach Sharbone. I get that he's super frustrating fantasy because he just scores a bunch of touchdowns and Ken Walker gets all the yards.
00:27:26
Speaker 2: But it doesn't matter.
00:27:27
Speaker 4: Jack Sharboney has scored in every single home game the Seahawks have played this year, minus one l five. Like, I get that it's not like the sexiest odds. But if he scores, just like with with Welsh's pick, if Henderson scores, who cares, Like minus one of five is fine, Like, and that's making money. You can't make money go you can't be You're not gonna go broke, being right, So I like the Zach Sharbonney call because I think he's just he's gonna score, So minus one oh five, I think that's good odds. Also Joe too, I think the likely odds at plus two thirty, Like, yeah, that's that's kind of like insane.
00:27:58
Speaker 2: Just that long, Joe made the sheet.
00:28:00
Speaker 3: Joe made the sheet and then just dropped his touchdowns and didn't allow I was one hundred percent going likely in Warren this week.
00:28:05
Speaker 1: Those are my touchdowns, so likely And if he scores, you're just gonna you know, just keep pace with me now.
00:28:10
Speaker 2: I want to. I want you to be the bottom of this list on touchdowns more.
00:28:14
Speaker 1: Than that might be who isaia likely? Holding touchdowns is the problem catching them completing. They're completing and finishing the touchdown. That's where the strug.
00:28:24
Speaker 3: He's kind of like, there's kind of like a there's a path going. He catches one and then drops it right before the end zone. Then he catches one, gets three feet down, but it's not quite there. Like the only path next is to have a full completion, hold it, fall on the ball, and actually get a touchdown.
00:28:39
Speaker 2: It's the perfect ending to his story.
00:28:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's hope the Cincinnati Bengals just continue to give up points to tight end. So I'm just hoping, I say likely, if he's going to take advantage of that somewhere, it's going to be against the Cincinnati Bengals. But we'll see you in the meantime. You can follow us over on Betting Pros all of us. Just download the app and search for our names. You can follow and see what we're in on this week in the NFL. And that'll do for us, But the story of the game goes on for the Welsh and the overtaker. I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time. Kids.
00:29:06
Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you love the show, the best freeway to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros, and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.
Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place your bets. It is me Joey p Joe Pi Zapia and this is BP NFL. It's week fifteen. It's time to look at to the props with the Welsh and the Andrew Erickson. They've got five props each lined up for you. We've got some touchdown calls. That contest has gotten way too close. I don't like it at all. And of course maybe we'll touch on a little bit. What was all last night? Thursday Night football? The Buccaneers, Welsh, we the bleeding cannot be stopped. It's orange blood everywhere. The Buccaneers just keep losing games and Kirk Cousins, Kirk Cousins keeps carving him up on an annual basis. What is happening to the Bucks?
00:00:36
Speaker 2: I mean, how about stop a tight end?
00:00:39
Speaker 3: Well, we thought was the most overrated tight end ever and then he just puts up the third best tight end performance I think since the year I was born. It was wild to watch Kyle Pitts live up to all the expectations.
00:00:52
Speaker 2: And I think what's.
00:00:53
Speaker 3: More brutal about it is this was the full completion of this team. You know, what was the interview before. They're like, Baker, how do you feel that you now have all your pieces and everybody's healthy and everyone's there, And He's like, I feel like losing, you know, like.
00:01:04
Speaker 2: That's what it essentially happened.
00:01:07
Speaker 3: It was pretty actually shocking, to be honest with you, for them to kind of drop it and not be able to put all that together. But it wasn't you know, it wasn't just on Baker. The offense, even though Baker seems way more stoic and confused at the offensive line point when any type of pressure is coming in the defense was just Cake.
00:01:24
Speaker 2: It was. It was bad. It was depressing if you were a Bucks fan. I'm not so I'm not depressed, but it was rough.
00:01:30
Speaker 1: Andrew, we talk a lot about the Best Bets Show. If you miss it, you can go back and watch about some of these games that are very heavy favorites this week, right, A lot of big giant underdogs, a lot of one sided potential games. How does that affect as you're you know, starting to work on analyzing props because you know, one side of games sometimes can be really difficult to kind of plug in the stuff that you like, because you just don't know our team's going to shut things down in the third and fourth quarter if they're up by a lot, or things going to go sideways, and some of those games that we never saw coming.
00:01:57
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's always tough to handicap that and to consider that. But again, sometimes it's just better to look at how many points does this team imply to score. They're gonna score a lot of points. Chances are that's good for those offensive players. You bet the overs on those offensive players. You bet the unders on the players that are getting blown out. So again, you can always get beat by garbage time. You can always get beat by a back door cover here and there. But ten those things tend to regress over time and usually aren't the best bets to make, unlike the ones that we're going to talk about here today.
00:02:26
Speaker 1: All Right, you gotta get better than last week. Two Welsh one in four ericson two and three ericson. You're just under five hundred Welsh still over five hundred four of the year and a touchdown contest. Oh my god, Welsh at twelve erics and I tied at thirteen. I didn't get any last week. I gotta get a bunch this week.
00:02:41
Speaker 2: I hit my almost four to one.
00:02:43
Speaker 3: So if we were doing ROW, I'd love to have seen this as an ROI thing this next year, because that was a close to four to one tight end call. But that was about the only good thing I had last week.
00:02:51
Speaker 1: So next year we'll have that technology. All right, Welsh, why don't you kick us off here with the first of our props for week fifteen. Obviously, the first one up here is for the New York Giants and Washington Commander's contest, one that could have a surprisingly high total. So let's talk about Terry mclaurin's output in that game.
00:03:08
Speaker 3: So if you listened to any of the shows that Ericson and I have done this week, Ericson and I do quite a few shows together. We're a team, and we would have given you a preview, specifically on the Extra Point podcast, which is on our discord over on Fantasy Pros. You would have got a little bit of a tease of the few of the things that we really really liked. And I had talked about this one and I made it my first one of the week. It is Terry McLaurin. I'm all in on Terry mcluurin. This week, we're going with the receiving yards sixty point five, fourteen targets. Those fourteen targets they were not last week. Those were the Jayden Daniels targets and then he gets hurt in the Mariota those are the targets. As Terry mclauin return back to game action with Marcus Mariota. Marcus Mariota targeting fourteen times. He got seven for ninety six in that big game against the Denver Broncos. Phenomenal start, even when he was just getting his legs fresh under him. Now you've got Mariota as the starter of this week, You've got a great matchup. Giants giving up the in top ten in passing yards allowed overall on the season. They defensively grade out according to PFF twenty eight of thirty two against wide receivers. I think it's a prime matchup where Mariota is throwing the ball a bunch more. Terry McLaurin is his target. As Ericson says, anything but Deebo Samuel should be your fantasy output and in your prop output, I think that equates to Terry McLaurin Terry McLaurin is also the big target, you know, the big play target guy. This is something with a really bad defensive matchup, or at least on their side bad defensively. Terry McLaurin could get eighty percent of this on one catch, and we know he's going to get targeted by Marcus Mariota. Run games also a little banged up. We'll see with the Chris Rodriguez stuff, but either way, and you can run against the Giants. That's probably like the biggest negative you would have in this one. But I think that's going to set up play action and I think that's going to set up Terry McLaurin to kind of eat in this one. So sixty point five receiving yards give me the over all.
00:04:56
Speaker 1: Right, Andrew Erickson, looks like your first prop of the week has a little bit of Joey Pam Lewins because this is one of my things for the Parlays show. Let's talk about Drake may and his passing yard total in this huge game where the divisions on the line with the Buffalo Bills.
00:05:09
Speaker 4: Well, I loved this so much that I third on the Prop show because I think that it deserves for everybody to be part of this, even if it's not part of your parlay. This should be a single player prop bet that you make Drake May over two hundred thirty and a half passing yards. It really is just a number that you look at and think, this guy leads the NFL passing yards and this is what his passing yards prop is set at. He's thrown for two hundred and forty passing yards ten times this season. That's tied for the most of any quarterback this year. He's on a streak of six consecutive games that leads two hundred and forty passing yards, third longest active streak in the NFL this season. He's already thrown for two hundred and seventy three yards against the Bills this season back in Week five, and at home. He's hit this number in all but one home game six out of seven, and in three or four of the game to the Patriots as underdogs this season. So, I mean, usually some of these props you come on here, it's like these kind of vomit players with these really low props. They're like, oh, like, I think you can squeeze right over it. But this one to me is just like, oh, I can bet on a great player in a great game to hit a dramatically low number. So yeah, this one for me is a layup easy, especially with the Bills that actually put one of their Christian Benford was on the injury report added this week. He's probably their best defensive back. And if he doesn't go or he's less than one hundred percent, you're just gonna see Drake may shred this Bill secondary. So I give it you over it.
00:06:27
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a low number. I don't get it, like weather be damned again. People try to tell me last week about how everything was gonna be under because of the weather. How'd that work out? How'd that work out? All right, let's go to Welsh's second selection here, and it's got to do with Rushi Rice now the the Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs right now or in their feelings and rightfully so, I mean they're a six win team on the outside of the bubble looking in another must win game. And I'm getting tired of saying of Welsh on the must win game every single week for the Kansay Chiefs. So how can Rushie Rice's prop market influence the Chiefs. That may be a positive way and maybe our wallets as well.
00:07:01
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the Chiefs are definitely, you know, teetering down right now. I wouldn't quite think that they're a team that, you know, win that pressure is put on and when it's important that they're going to just buckle and just pack it in, They're going to go as hard as possible, and that means they need to be more aggressive. I don't even know if that necessarily pushes to this exact prop, but I think they got to get the ball in the air more. But what we did see last week when that must win, big pressure situation was drops. We saw a ton of drops, and we need these guys to pick this back up this week. I'm pretty heavy across multiple props on receptions and the reception guy. When we look across all the wide receivers in this game, it is Rashi Rice. We're going to go to Rashi Rice plus seven catches or over six and a half receptions and it's plus money this week. Rice has hit this in two of his last three games. Found this really interesting over on PFF Rice. Against zone heavy defenses, Rice is targeted at the third highest rate among wide receivers in the end in zone coverage. The Chargers play the fourth highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL. So and what I think is going to be a past heavy situation, Rashee Rice should see a ton of receptions. Projections also like this. Most projections have him at the seven plus markers. So you're getting plus money on seven receptions for Rashi Rice. I know it's a weird situation with the Chiefs didn't hit it last week, had the drops. We're going to bounce back from that. Mahomes is going to target him a bunch and we're gonna get seven receptions plus money Rashi Rice.
00:08:30
Speaker 1: All right, plus money on Rushie Rice. Next one, we're talking about a running back here in one of the many potential blowout games. We've got the Jacksonville Jaguars and a beat up spot where the Jets are playing a third string quarterback. Gross So Travis ATM let's talk about his prop total. It's seventy two and a half rushing yards Andrew it seems like a game where you're gonna have a lead if you are the Jags, and you're gonna be running out some clock late.
00:08:52
Speaker 4: That's the way I hope it plays out because I'm taking the over on Travis Eaton and his rushing yards at seventy two and a half rushing yards. That actually hit this in four of his last six games played. He's kind of been on a low key heater. Usually Travis Eten kind of falls off in the second half of season. Not really been the case this year where they've been really leaning on him, and he's been part of the reason why the Jaguars have been on this hot streak over the last four to six weeks. So the Jets defensively ever since they traded Quentin Williams. I'm saying this on a lot of shows, but just bunts against the run the New York Jets, So I like attacking their defense. You've just seen some running backs recently face them and just have absolute monster games. Eight Chan last week, he didn't play the full game, and he had a monster game in the first half against the New York Jets. Nine running backs in the last seven games have hit at least sixty two rushing yards against the Jets. Seven hit sixty five or more. And like I said, Etn has been going over the number pretty consistently, and I do think they're going to continue to lean on him instead of bay Shell two, who had two fumbles last week. And they even talked about the coaches this week about Etn Hey. When he gets going, he is our workhorse. He can really do a lot of damage. So I like Etn here to go over at home, big total positive game script against Brady Quick Brady Cook. Yeah, give me the jag your RB all right.
00:10:03
Speaker 1: Before we get to the next prop on our list, don't forget to support our sponsor, and that is hard Rock Bet Sports Book. The holidays are here, and the sports schedule is jam packed, tighter than Santa's gift bag. And Week fifteen football is on its way. We got Bowl games coming to NBA college hoops hockey. It's all going down right now. The sleigh is loaded and the hard Rock Bet Sports that gap is here for you to unwrap, and you can start betting on some of these events. Bet five bucks, get one hundred and fifteen bonus bets when your first bet hits, plus your winnings. Stick that and you're stocking. How's that for holiday magic. If you're not sure what to put your first bet on, don't worry because the Hard Rock bet app has launched the brand new for you page, making it easy to follow your favorite teams, players, leagues. They got the stats up, they got everything there. It's also legal in Florida. It's the only one in Florida, by the way, where you have a sports book you get download to your device. Plus, it's there in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado, and Michigan. Coming soon to more states near you. Plus, hard Rock Bet offers new promos daily, so whenever you're listening, just open the app, check out what's in there every single week and download the hard Rock Bet app today so you can make your first deposit and start winning some bonus cash, paybal and bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminal Tribe of Florida and Florida offered by the Seminal hard Rock Digital LLC in other states. Must be twenty one plus in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. Play terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call one eight three to three play wise in Indiana if you are someone you know as a gambling problem, lawts help called one eight hundred and nine with it gambling problem called one hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. All right, let's get to the next prop on the list for the boys here. Well, it's tough to know what we're gonna get from the Indianapolis Colts now that Daniel Jones is out for the year. So how are we going to take a look at Tyler Warren in week fifteen?
00:11:52
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is the second of my series of plus money receptions that we're going with this week. And I talked about this a lot on all of the show, And you know, it's a risky endeavor because you have no idea what you're getting in with With Philip Rivers hasn't played in five years, he is familiar with the offense. Are they gonna just lean on four hundred and twenty two carries from Jonathan Taylor?
00:12:13
Speaker 2: You don't know. But if Philip.
00:12:15
Speaker 3: Rivers is going to be in that game, there is going to be some passing going on. And I don't think it's going to be big volume passing, and that's where I'm gonna lean on Tyler Warren. I think Tyler Warren will be his safety net, so on Warren himself. Warren has hit this six times this year five or more receptions, including three of his last five rivers. When we look at him last we saw him, he was a slight lean to throwing to tight ends. Before his retirement, he was a little bit above average on his target rate to tight ends versus the league average.
00:12:43
Speaker 2: So that's a positive in general. Then if you go and look.
00:12:47
Speaker 3: At the Seahawks, the Seahawks defense does a lot of things. Well, what it doesn't do is cover tight ends. They have a defensive grade of thirty one out of thirty two against tight ends so far this year.
00:12:56
Speaker 2: And going in to this is a.
00:12:59
Speaker 3: Stat I saw in God, I should have saved the person who put this out. This is going into last week's matchup, but essentially was saying that the Seahawks, ravaging almost seven targets per game around seven the most receptions around just run seven receptions and allowing the third most receiving yards of tight ends. So tight ends are a susceptible piece for the Seattle Seahawks, and that's going to be the safety net for this offense. Plus on top of it. You know, this isn't necessarily this is more to something we'll talk about later, but I think Tyler WARN's gonna be used in a lot of spots. But I think Philip Rivers is going to be looking for safety net stuff when they're trying to move the ball, when the boxes are stacked on Jonathan Taylor first down runs, which would probably happen, you know, every single play, then they're going to be forced into throwing and it's going to be short line stuff. And I think that's where Tyler Warren is going to help a lot. Here, So five receptions from plus one point thirty and that's a Philip Rivers esque number because we're terrified of him, I get it. I'm jumping on on a plus number five receptions for Tyler.
00:14:00
Speaker 1: All Right, Andrew Rickson, we're already discussed Travis ATM and what that game might look like in garbage time, running out the clock. What about the Seattle Seahawks also potentially in that mode in week fifteen.
00:14:11
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that Seattle is gonna destroy the Golts. I mean, would he have been surprised if Daniel Jones went up to Seattle with this team and got destroyed by the Seattle Seahawks. Like, No, So now that I still have this forty four year old quarterback coming in, I just I'm just not optimistic about this Colts offense. So I like backing the blowout type of game strip with the Seattle Seahawks, and that leads me to Kenneth Walker over fifty seven and a half rushing yards. The Seahawks have been the run heaviest team this season, calling run plays nearly fifty percent of their plays. Ken Walker has been much better at home than he's been on the road. He's sixty plus rushing yards in three of his last four home games. The last four running decks to face the Indianapolis Colts have given up sixty four rushing yards or have had sixty four or more rushing yards. Now there is a chance that the Colts do get defensive tackled to forest buck back from injury preserve, but he's also missed a lot of time he was dealing with a neck nerve injury, So that's always kind of concerning about how effective he is going to be dealing with the loss of strength with so much time miss. So I'm just buying into the Seahawks laying the hammer on Indianapolis Colts. I mean, Seattle has showed up big in these spots at home as heavy home favorites of touchdowns are more than three to zero against the spread. They're also number one in the NFL in margin of victory seventeen points. So if they're killing this team, I think Kennith Walker. Yes, maybe he's not even in the game in the fourth quarter, but I think he's getting get enough work and see enough explosive plays where he can get to at least sixty rushing yards and take the over on ken Walker.
00:15:40
Speaker 1: All right, make sure you take a look at the propa at Chichiet every single week because that's going to give you all these props, the best lines, the projections too, So sink your sportsbooks are free. Download the Fantasy pros app and the Betting pros app. As you make your run to glory in fantasy, make your run to glory in the betting world too. There's only a couple of regular season weeks left here, or a fantasy didn't work out for it's a perfect time. Start looking a little bit more towards the betting things, and the betting prop cheat sheet is the tool that you all need right now again, passing, rushing, receiving. All the stack categories are there in the prop bet cheat sheet. Go to Betting pros dot com slash props, or just download the app today and start betting smarter, not harder. Next up here, Welsh, we know the Cincinnati Bengals do not farewell against tight ends, so let's talk a little about Isaiah Likely and what he's likely to do in week fifteen.
00:16:27
Speaker 3: This is the final of the series. This is our third book in the plus reception series that we're going to be running, and I am all about Isaiah Likely over Mark Andrews Likely.
00:16:36
Speaker 1: A trilogy, Welsh.
00:16:37
Speaker 3: I gotta see yep this and hopefully this trilogy is going to end better than many other trilogies. Isaiah Likely receptions four plus He's also plus money around plus one thirty is where you're seeing it. Bengals are the worst against tight ends. We talked about Tyler Warren going up against the Seahawks. There's a dicey situations. Zhawks aren't good, but the Bengals are the worst. They grade thirty two to thirty two according to PFF. On average, they're giving up ten targets to tight ends, over seven receptions and.
00:17:04
Speaker 2: Over ninety receiving yards.
00:17:07
Speaker 3: So receiving yards might be a plus that you can play on this, but I like the receptions of this big plus money here trying to go out big towards the end of the year. Likely has been the top tight end option for the Ravens over the last couple of weeks, with twelve targets over the last two games, and he has hit this reception yard prop in both of those games. Plus it would have been even more had those touchdowns not been ruled out of his favor or the one that just plopped out. I like Likely in this situation. He did this against the Bengals. He hit this prop against the Bengals. I think he is the big playmaker option here. His receiving yard prop is also again low, It's relatively low. It's like in the thirties, but for four receptions when he's been hitting this against the Bengals team that is cheeks against tight ends. I'm all about Isaiah Likely on the receptions.
00:17:53
Speaker 1: All right, more likely stuff later in the show too. Andrew ericson, let's do another tight end conversation here, Jue on Johnson. The numbers three and a half receptions for the Saints tight end, we're going over or under undertaker.
00:18:05
Speaker 4: We are going over. But I do have to make one point about Welsh's cheeks reference. You know who was on the injury report with a glute injury, Mark Andrews.
00:18:14
Speaker 1: Who Mark Andrews right.
00:18:15
Speaker 4: The other Ravens tight eds. So it's all coming first full circle with buns, cheeks and glutes that we need.
00:18:23
Speaker 1: There is Jake, but Jake but nice, well done, well done Welsh, well Kaseean Boody too. We can give Booty little parlay. It feels like a parlay somewhere in there. I don't know how we got to figure it out.
00:18:32
Speaker 4: I am going over with Juwan Johnson. This one just kind of stood out to me because I thought there was a lot of value on the number here, over three and a half receptions. He's had at least four catches in every single game he's played since Week seven except for one.
00:18:45
Speaker 1: Last week.
00:18:45
Speaker 4: He even got to four receptions despite the Saints kind of dialing back the passing attack because of the weather that was being played in Tampa Bay. In the first matchup against Carolina, Johnson had four catches on four targets for ninety two yards and a touchdown. So his recepsions prop has really been more around that four and a half number. It's down to three and a half just because I think that last week we didn't see a ton of passing volonging from the Saints. I don't expect that necessarily carry over in dome conditions here at home for the New Orleans Saints. So I would take the over on Juwan Johnson three and a half receptions. He's been hitting this at a pretty high rate.
00:19:18
Speaker 1: All right, We've got one more prop to go for everybody, and then the touchdown calls will be upon us. So Welsh, let's finish strong here with your forty nine. Or is Ricky Pierce all he still goes there? Does he still go to San Francisco?
00:19:30
Speaker 2: You wouldn't know it. This is an all vibes play.
00:19:34
Speaker 3: So if you're looking for all the great data that's going to tell you why this is a lock and a smash. Sorry, this is me and ericson, Me and Erickson are all vibes about this the forty nine ers.
00:19:46
Speaker 2: I mean, since Ricky Pearsall has.
00:19:47
Speaker 3: Come back, you wouldn't know that he's been back. He's been an absolute ghost in that offense. He has not been used whatsoever. Forty nine has been trying to get their feet under them. One of the big changes here is going into the bye week, and I think if you're looking to know not only regroup, you're looking to retool what your offense is going to be coming out of the by I think one thing that is clear to them is they've got to get Ricky Piersall involved back in the offense because prior to the injury, he's hitting these props. This is a low number. We're looking at thirty point five receiving yards when this was an absolute smash every week before he ends up getting hurt. So are there great numbers on targets and everything. There's not because he hasn't been getting them. But Erickson and I both believe he is going to get involved coming.
00:20:29
Speaker 2: Out of this now.
00:20:30
Speaker 3: The other side of this is taking a look at the defensive matchup. This is a great defensive matchup. Eight of the fourteen weeks the Titans have given up thirty or more yards to two plus wide receivers gone up again. So again this isn't like a huge, big crazy number Marcus Harris. Their best corner, you know, grades out pretty well but is likely going to be locked up against Juwan Jennings other corner. You're looking at bottom half fifty nine out of one eleven according to PFF and really really safety coverage grades which actually I like about a wide receiver that's going to come over the top, which that is Ricky Piersol. Projections love this though every projection place has got him over forty and really there's not a lot to go off of, but everybody thinks we're going to get him back in this offense. I believe coming off of the buye this is a clearcut thing that needs to be addressed, will be and it is a really good matchup for that to happen. So super low number Ricky Piersol thirty point five. If he doesn't hit it, he's dead to me and I'll be over. But this is the gross sicko bet vibe bet.
00:21:34
Speaker 2: Of the week.
00:21:35
Speaker 1: Those vibes really come and go quickly around here. I guess gott to say, wellh we hope for Ricky Piersoll's sake, things go all right, all right, Next up here, Kyle Mnnngui. Look, Andrew, there's another one that we've discussed on some other shows, you and I together. We're both in Almanagai this week. The Carrie number is twelve and a half and I think the Undertaker is going to take the over. I got a feeling of it already. Bet this.
00:21:57
Speaker 3: I just want to point out before actually even says it me and actually talked about. This is the first thing I bet this week, if anything.
00:22:02
Speaker 1: Save the bus for last. Let's go in because it's gonna smash.
00:22:05
Speaker 4: And I think it took fifteen weeks, but I have a full card of all overs. All my player props are over. Yeah, that's right, you do look at this is not like an intention like I went out and be like I gotta do all the overs. I actually liked a lot of unders in terms of the game totals this week. So go check out the Best Bet show with myself and Joe. But yeah, this week, I'm doing all overs on a player props and this is my favorite one on the card. Kaya Mnung guy going over twelve and a half carries. It's December at Soldier Field. You have a bowling ball running back in Kyle manong Guy against a Browns defense. It just got boat raced by Tony Pollard, someone that was left for dead on every fantasy football bench, and he went off against this Browns defense. What do you think Ben Johnson's gonna do when he reviews the table, thinks, yeah, I think I could probably run effectively on this Browns defense, especially with them on the road. Malik Collins defensive tackle, he didn't play last week. Mason Graham their other defensive tackle. He's banged up with the rib injury. He hasn't been practicing. So I think the run wild here. And the guy that they feature in feed is rookie Rutgers running back Kyle Manongai. Based on how physical he is. No one's gonna want to tackle this guy when it's zero degree temperatures out, especially the Browns defense on the road. So give me manong Guy over twelve and a half carries again. Last four weeks, he's been averaging fifteen carries per game. That's the same as DeAndre Swift. He actually has fourteen or more in three of his last four games played twelve plus carries in four straight games overall, so I think twelve is like the minimum for me. It wouldn't surprise you if he gets up to twenty carries in this game. Has a monster performance. So give me Kyle Mamanong Guy, the rookie running back to smash the Browns this week.
00:23:39
Speaker 1: I like it. I'm in on it. Got mann Guy shares too that I drafted that I've been playing the last couple of weeks. Been very happy overall with all of those shares. All right, let's get to the touchdown calls, and remember the touchdown score report is also available on Betting Pros. All you have to do is head over to betting pros dot com slash touchdown to to view the very latest in touchdown prop analysis. Again, the touchdown stats, the props to bet the odds, everything is there versus the projections to help identify the very best at anytime touchdown bets only at bettingcrows dot com slash touchdown. I'm going with two here today. I was gonna go and be fancy with the uh the two tight ends, but the Mark Andrews injury popped up yesterday and now I'm not feeling as good about the double tight end touchdown call. So I'm just gonna stick with Isaiah likely plus two thirty and then I'm gonna go with tenor Roa McMillan in a game against the New Orleans Saints at plus one fifty five. So those are pretty good numbers there. I think I can go two for two this week, and I need to. I need to stop crap into bed here. I need to get forward here on this touchdown call. Contest got way too close here. I had a nice lead, and that is disintegrated. Man. I feel like I feel like the Indianapolis Colts when we get the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Well, shout about you where you're going for your touchdown calls in week fifteen.
00:24:48
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's disintegrated by the way, Like Erickson is tied with you and I was I was far I'm one behind both of you and I was way far away.
00:24:55
Speaker 2: I know I've got up good drama.
00:24:56
Speaker 1: It's good ratings for TV.
00:24:58
Speaker 2: So it is pretty good.
00:24:58
Speaker 3: Well kind of in with that, I don't think I've taken a single like minus touchdown bet this entire season. I am going to this week, but it's especially minus one O five minus won ten in any spot, and I'm going to serve with Trevion Henderson just kind of looking through the cart. I think it's some solid like you know, plus one forty one to fifty bets. But I just kept staring at Traveon Henderson and I couldn't get away from it. Bills ranked thirty one to thirty two defensive grade against running backs, specifically this acording PFF twenty four of thirty two in yards after contact. They rank thirty one of thirty two and miss tackles and twenty four of thirty two on their overall defensive front. Oh, by the way, the Bills have given up sixteen rushing touchdowns this year to running backs and at least one rushing touchdown in all but two games. Trevion Henderson book it and then my big play that one's gonna hate it.
00:25:47
Speaker 2: It's gonna be gross. It's Tyler Warren. Now here's it. Now here's part of it.
00:25:50
Speaker 3: Though, and what I said before, because it didn't really account to the receptions. Not only take everything I said with Tyler Warren as far as like receptions go, and see how grading out horrifically five touchdowns they've given up to tight ends. But also we should be looking at Tyler Warren being used in some other spots. Guy can be a running back guy. I mean, the quarterback thing is not going to help me if he throws a touchdown, But don't be surprised if there's any tush push type of situation and he runs out. You're not gonna philip rivers do that. If they do those little inder round things, like Tyler Warren is going to be used in other spots where they need to get creative with a sixty seven year old quarterback behind center. So I really like Tyler Warren on the ROI because the number is like plus three point fifty, so that is super super low against a team that is bad against tight ends and a tight end that get used another spot. So I'm very much in on a Tyler Warren touchdown.
00:26:44
Speaker 1: All right. Ericson Europe give us two tuddies for week fifteen.
00:26:47
Speaker 4: Already talked about my love for common on. Guy gonna see a lot of carries, a lot of rushing yards, and I think he's also going to find Peydrt just because he's really been the guy they've focused mostly in the red zone. He actually had a two point conversion last week where the offensive line just like will their way to push him into the end zone. I think they can see that again here with the Bears playing at home. So I like Manungai, especially at the odds at plus one thirty. Again, it's kind of a process play with me. Take home teams the lead running back in the red zone and bet them to score touchdowns because that's a most likely outcome going to happen. So Manunguy plus one thirty. And then the same thing with Zach Sharbone. I get that he's super frustrating fantasy because he just scores a bunch of touchdowns and Ken Walker gets all the yards.
00:27:26
Speaker 2: But it doesn't matter.
00:27:27
Speaker 4: Jack Sharboney has scored in every single home game the Seahawks have played this year, minus one l five. Like, I get that it's not like the sexiest odds. But if he scores, just like with with Welsh's pick, if Henderson scores, who cares, Like minus one of five is fine, Like, and that's making money. You can't make money go you can't be You're not gonna go broke, being right, So I like the Zach Sharbonney call because I think he's just he's gonna score, So minus one oh five, I think that's good odds. Also Joe too, I think the likely odds at plus two thirty, Like, yeah, that's that's kind of like insane.
00:27:58
Speaker 2: Just that long, Joe made the sheet.
00:28:00
Speaker 3: Joe made the sheet and then just dropped his touchdowns and didn't allow I was one hundred percent going likely in Warren this week.
00:28:05
Speaker 1: Those are my touchdowns, so likely And if he scores, you're just gonna you know, just keep pace with me now.
00:28:10
Speaker 2: I want to. I want you to be the bottom of this list on touchdowns more.
00:28:14
Speaker 1: Than that might be who isaia likely? Holding touchdowns is the problem catching them completing. They're completing and finishing the touchdown. That's where the strug.
00:28:24
Speaker 3: He's kind of like, there's kind of like a there's a path going. He catches one and then drops it right before the end zone. Then he catches one, gets three feet down, but it's not quite there. Like the only path next is to have a full completion, hold it, fall on the ball, and actually get a touchdown.
00:28:39
Speaker 2: It's the perfect ending to his story.
00:28:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's hope the Cincinnati Bengals just continue to give up points to tight end. So I'm just hoping, I say likely, if he's going to take advantage of that somewhere, it's going to be against the Cincinnati Bengals. But we'll see you in the meantime. You can follow us over on Betting Pros all of us. Just download the app and search for our names. You can follow and see what we're in on this week in the NFL. And that'll do for us, But the story of the game goes on for the Welsh and the overtaker. I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time. Kids.
00:29:06
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