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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Fantasy Sports Radio Network. Welcome to fan Rag Fantasy Baseball everybody. This is the special tout Wars edition. We are broadcasting live from Fantasy Sports Radio Studios here in Manhattan, and we've got with us in a steam panel today. Now it's also it's tout War Sunday, but it's also Greg Jewett Sunday. So Greg Jowett is here live with us. Uh he's our normal Sunday guest, and uh, Greg's been taken in all the tout Wars action here. Uh, we have Paul Spore from fan Graphs Morning Paul and uh, Paul took part in the head to head draft which was Friday night, correct, yes, okay, trying to keep all the all the madness straight here. And then we've got Brett Hershey from Baseball HQ and Brent also took part in the mixed auction that I took part in yesterday afternoon, so we're gonna try to cover all the bases. A little bit later on, we'll have Mike pod Hoorser from Fan Graphs who did the a L auction, and then right now we got the n L auction, so we will do our best the next two hours to cover all of it and uh, you know, get you ready for opening day just one week away. Very exciting. So Paul, let's uh, let's start with you, since you were the first one chronologically to uh take part in the top festivity. So first of all, how you how you feel about the team. I'm really excited about the team. It was a situation where to call it a plan would be incorrect. I did not necessarily go in with any sort of plan um you know, yet clowns like Jake Celian there, I know I can roll that full So I'm basically only competing with with eleven or ten others. Uh. Once Jake's put it put out of the way, and so uh, I bought Trout I think first at fifty and then Harper at forty four, and I just decided, why don't I just buy a ton of offense and see where it takes me? To twelve team Mixed League. The pool is deep. We have K nine, so the need for starters is definitely not as rich. I mean, we have to meet we have to meet an innings minimum of nine fifty. But I just wasn't too worried about about pitching and so I ended up spoiging. I ended up getting Vado in Aronado at forty one apiece Trevor's Story at five, and so I had this core of of five offensive players on which I spent quite a bit of money. I still got an archer at twenty three, but then kind of filled out with single digit players from there, and I'm interested to see how it works. You know, no saves, kind of punted saves. Not really too worried about it, but I think the K nine will be there. Um, I have to obviously dominate on offense, but I think I'm going to well. And you have Madson, so I mean he's one of the stually gonna cut him though, because the plan was Madison and Jim Johnson, and before my next round, Jim Johnson got taken. So I was like, if I got too, I can compete some weeks, but there's no reason to get like Madsen's two saves with eight point oh k B nine, So I'm gonna probably put in Joe Kelly, cut him and pick up somebody else. Okay, So I mean there's a lot October and Greg, you and I were just talking about this, like right before we came online. Here, you know, there's a year after year tons of turnover at the closer position. This is this your team in terms of the pitching balance. Reminds me a lot of my mixed auction team last year, and so I was just continuously playing catch up with saves. Never really did catch up, but the opportunities are there because of all the turnovers. So I mean, did you give some thought to keeping Matson and just saying a few you can sort of build around him, or if there's nobody that I'm terribly interested and I can just put him on the bench and see how it goes, right, see if well, the thing of it is, because it's K nine, all the next guys are already taken. Like if I don't have any confidence in jamr Gomez, Hector Narri's is already gone. Heck, I think I'm not even sure Ben Well I might have gotten taken. But um, the problem with with it being K nine is it's a lot tougher to speculate for saves because even the next in lines and the next next in lines are taken. You know, Kyle barclau is probably third in line there, but he's got a fifteen K nine, so of course he goes in this league. So honestly, I might just punt it all together. Being head to head, I don't think I necessarily need saves, and I think I can survive without it. So currently the plan is to completely ignore it, not even waste in season resources on it. But we'll see, we'll see if things change. Okay, Um, yeah, this is Brent hurt. Can't can't you You You can get away with that in the head to head league much easier than you can, of course, in a season long with absolutely this. This league was set up, you know, um for something like this where I think this can work. Punting saves completely, um, and almost punting starters too, because my guys, you know, Michael pined to Francis Galiano, Ian Kennedy, Dylan Bundy, Mike Foltonevitch like I went for some upside strikeout guys you know that I think can have some good seasons. If they're not doing well, they're gone. You know, I'm not gonna let them brutalize my ear a and whip. Um. This was honestly based on the league format. I don't think this is something that's translatable to a lot of other leagues. Uh, even just using k's versus we use K nine versus K's allows for a different strategy. No, I mean I was in the head to head, uh head to league last year, finished second, finished second. Yeah, I mean I didn't do uh, but I was just really I thought your approach, I mean, even even though you said it wasn't a plan or strategy, was really interesting because the high guys you got are high on base guys, which is the you know, which is one of the categories in Vado and uh Eronado and Trent Harper. I mean, uh, yeah, I'm really interested to see that whole scar Stars and Scrubs thing in the head to head where you're just doing week to week. I mean, you just went in as many categories as you can, and you can get away with punt saves or or uh you know, going a little going a little less on some of the starting pitching, and then you know, I got I'm not gonna lie. I got Lucky two with some of my one dollar guys. I throughout Eric Thames at five, and I thought that was kind of the end of me, because I got crickets and I needed that flexibility because I really wanted like Leriano, Kennedy, Bundy and full to episodes are like legitimate targets that I really wanted, and I wanted to have the flexibility to go two or three on a couple of them. And when they cricketed me on on on things, I was like, oh, I'm done for because now I'm dollar days. I ended up getting all four of the guys I wanted. Maybe maybe that's a bad sign, and nobody else wanted those guys at all, so I got them. But um, I did get lucky. You know, Marcello Zuna at a bucket. There were other guys out there that I've been happy with, but I'm super high in Marcello Zuna, so I feel like I absolutely stole him. So, you know, I get a little luck sprinkled in with a plan like this, it can certainly help to a twelve team mixed. I mean, the the one dollar guys uh that you got, I mean are are fine. They're all starters, and some of them have more upside than what you would, uh what you would anticipate with that. And then guys like you know, older guys like even Beltran and Holiday, they're gonna they're gonna help you figure with the v P you know, and and and power with your strong backgrounds with pitching. Did dad help so? Uh yeah, well like Greg's gotta Mike issue. Um so yeah, yeah, I thought about that too. I was gonna say, I think just picking up a sorry Mike issue, my bad folks. Um, I was gonna ask Paul with his strong background and pitching going heavy on the offense. Did you kind of had that even though it wasn't a plan. Was that kind of in your back pocket? No one that in the end game that you could get nine guys and you had people kind of probably pre targeted saying in this format they're good anyways, so I can get value, let's go for it. Absolutely I had. I had tons of guys that could have gone to even if I didn't get those targets that I had. I feel like I know the picture pool as well as anybody that was going to be in that league in twelve team mixed, I feel confident finding the one and two dollar guys that I like that I think can deliver, you know, even double digit value potentially. So so you know, it did become the plan pretty quickly. But I didn't go in saying well, I'm just gonna kind of punt pitching and and and stack up on hitting. You know, I still got an archer. Like I said, I wanted to kind of have one solid guy can RELI plus, you know, do need to get the innings, so I want somebody. I feel it's gonna give me those two hundred. But yeah, in a twelve team mixed, Um, you're gonna get so many guys in that one to two dollar range. I feel like I can pluck out the guys. You know, not a hundred percent success, right, but I feel like this first crew, I'm gonna end up keeping a couple of them and then playing the wire the rest of the season. Pitching is something that I'm always studying, uh, much deeper than the hitting pool. So I definitely felt confident there. Uh what drafts do you have left after this week? There you've done This Wednesday, I'm in the NFBC Main event online picking from the two hole. I'm very excited about that. My first time in NFBC main event. Uh So that's gonna be a lot of fun. I have an nl auction local in Houston. I live in awesome about drive out to hou Houston and then um al only straight draft ten team four by four old school league been around, so you got got quite a bit left. And where I was going with that is, um, you were saying that, you know, the lessons from this draft or this draft, we're not auction, we're not really transferable. But you know, given that, you you sort of surprised yourself with how it unfolded. I mean, is there anything that you think you'll carry over those I think it's so in the NL auction. It's I've been in this league now for a while, um, and it's been a while since I've had some success. I gotta mix it up. So I don't know if I'll do something exactly like this, but I think I could do something again where I can test myself on the picture pool and just load up on offense. It's also O B p UM. I'm gonna I might even keep Bottle already already half him, so I might start with him and then kind of stack around him with some with some stud bats. We have a big, big free agent market this year, a lot of guys coming off a contracts and stuff Strasbourg, Harper, and so I might do something similar to this. Obviously, it would have to be a little bit different, tailored to a standard five by five with ob P minus take out average put an ob P. But uh, I can't go full on with it, but I think I will. I think I will be stacking a lot of offense even in the NFBC main you know, Kersh, I think is per really viable at number two. But I think I'm more inclined to maybe take Goldie, um not not worried about pitching for the first few rounds, and see if I can win in the middle rounds of pitching. So maybe it will be a kind of a general theme or I'm just not taking the pitching. Earlier last year we all took you know, we all kind of got in on those twenty aces or whatever, and you know, I was right there thinking, well, you've got to get at least one of those, maybe two. This year there's like, I think seven bona fide aces and then another group of like fantasy aces, and I don't feel like I need to be in there. I if I'm not, I'm not worried about it. If I can, that's great. If I can get somebody out of what I think is a good price, but I'm not gonna reach. I'm not gonna just reach for Chris Sale or something like that. I'm okay kind of starting a rotation with like UM with Archer for example, you know, I got no problem starting starting rotations with him. So I will probably play more in the middle pool of pitching. Uh So maybe that will be the kind of unifying theme of the rest of my drafts. Is that a twelve or fifteen that one um, the main events fifteen team mixed, the NL only is eleven team and the only and then the als at straight draft. That's that's completely different. That's four by four. Um, that's really I mean, my two keepers are trouting beds. So well, I'm about to wrap up a draft the champions for tout and I kind of followed what you were saying. I got some bats early and I was lucky enough. Archer fell to the fourth and this draft started last week and the Ground fell to the sixth. So those are my two. I got great value on the ground, while I was ecstatic when he fell back to me. Um picking from the eight spot. So I kind of and in line with you on that. You know, I don't want to get A necessarily blocked myself into and say I gotta have a picture in the second round. You know, let value fall. I'd love to get a Thor. You know, bum Garners as reliable as they come. Um, but I like go out of those second round bats too. That's the thing is that it's not that I'm really against those pictures. I don't necessarily you know, Thor is always worried some when somebody throws ninety seven hundred times a game with their elbow. But I'm not. I'm not down on the guys. I'm just much higher on those bats in the in the second and third round. So do you feel like you you need to I mean in the way your serf already answer the question, but you know, compensate or do you feel like that it does put you to cop it's disadvantage that you have to work against by going with one out of those you know, twenty or so starters that you've used fantasy aces. Because I really try to get to I feel like yeah, and I think I think either strategy is perfectly viable. It's just a situation where if I have done draft mock and in one real one where I did dip into the pitching pool early. I started with Kershaw and then I ended up backing him up with Klueber, and that's great, But then I wasn't able to take a lot of my favorite mid round guys, you know, Paxston, Gossman, Jameson, tye On and Sanchez. I just didn't. I had to get the hitting, and so I want to take those I want to take those mid round pictures. So maybe it's just a preference thing. It's not even necessarily something that I think is automatically better, because I think that team is going to be pretty good with with those two starting it off at the rotation. So again, it's it's not any sort of negativity about the top tiers. It's just that I love the middle tiers. I think they're I think they're deep. Like you take like somebody picture thirty five and you look at somebody who's picture fifty five. I don't think there's much difference, And it seems you think twenty ranks, that's so different, and then you really look at it and you know, like is it really that different? You know, would it be crazy if Ivan nova Um matched or outperformed Kevin Gossmand I don't think so everyone's super high on Gossmand I'm I'm with them, but I'm pretty high on Nova to going into Pittsburgh. You know, you look at that walk crade he put up last year. I think a lot of that was confidence where he just felt he could pound the zone because he was gonna beat get beat up by Homers. Now he's not gonna have a two percent walk right the entire year, but I think he's gonna be a heck of a lot better. And so I just think these picture tears run so deep once you get to about picture thirty that I just I would rather get those more reliable bats. Yeah. No, and I hear that. Like I said, I would like to secure two I say, top sixteen or seventeen rather than twenty um. But once it's beyond that, then yeah, I feel like you can wait, you know, or like you did in this auction, and you can go cheap. I mean, you have two pictures that were more than one dollar and uh, I mean would you consider these guys like Kennedy, Loriano, Bundy, Faulty, Uh part of that that middle tier. Yeah, that's the thing. Like Leriana, people are sleeping on him I think getting back with Russell Martin is really big. I know, going to Toronto. You know, we just I just talked about how great Pittsburgh is gonna be for something like Nova, So leaving Pittsburgh's never awesome. But I think getting back with Russell Martin, you look at what he did at the end of last year. I think Loriana is gonna be pretty solid. Ian Kennedy they're boring though, too. Kennedy and Loriano specifically Bundy and Faultier a little bit more of the flash and and they've got something to prove. But I think the guys like Kennedy, they just get so underrated. People don't want to, you know, because no one's gonna go. And when you take that pick, but it's like a hundred eighty guaranteed innings with like a hundred eighty strikeouts, e r A. We'll see where it is. It could be in the upper threes, little fours maybe if it if it starts going awry and gives up too many homers, you can move on though too. That's the beauty of those guys. Whereas if you take somebody who might do something similar again, like Gossman, who has home run issues. You don't want to cut him. You're like, I can't cut him because I drafted him as pitcher off the board. I take Kennedy as the eighty pitcher off the board. I don't know that there's a ton of difference between those two. Maybe in the overall upside, but upside is just a fake ideal, right, Yeah, I mean they have to come through on the upside for it to matter. So yeah, I just like I said, these tears get huge once you get to about picture thirty five. That's why I got no problem playing in that. Absolutely agree with that. Well, we gotta go to break, but we'll come back. We'll take a look at yesterday's mixed league auction and uh a whole lot more. So stick around. We'll be right back. Welcome back to fan Rag Fantasy Baseball how Wars. Addition, I'm your host, Al Melfior, and I'm joined today by fellow fan Rag author. That sounds that's right, right, Greg Jewett. Great Jewett's here, Uh and we've got Paul smore from Fangraph's last segment. Paul talked to us about his head to head team that he UH put together on Friday night and we also get bred Kirshey, who was involved in the mixed auction yesterday as was I. Um just a quick programming note, So we are on longer today than usual. We're on normally this is twelve the one Eastern. Were on two whole hours until two o'clock and then we'll be back on the regular schedule Monday. But we will have a guest host, Nando Dafino with Jim Jim Rinch Jim Finch from Fan RAG. Easy for me to say, and well we'll be on the regular schedule from that point going forward. So, uh, you know, Paul, you made these waves definitely in that head to head draft, That's what everybody was talking about. I'm not sure there's a consensus uh you know splash that was made yesterday. But for me, I think Fred Zincky's got the team to beat here in the mixed auction, Uh Josh Donaldson of forty to Nolan Ardo or not a forty, Chris Bryan and forty five, and he even drafted some people who weren't third baseman, um, Bryce Harper, Matt bum Darvish. So sort of like Paul, I was gonna say, kind of Paul's four plan. I guess thinking, geez, Zinkie, come up now A kidding, But yeah, I mean look at that four guys forty plus um to two stud pictures again, because it's different where k's are gonna matter uh in the aggregate as opposed to K nine. He did still have to get starters. He punted saves. Here's the Here's the thing though, too. If you like Zinkie's team coming out of a draft, that league is in trouble because he's also the greatest trader in the world. So any issues that the team runs into, he's gonna be able to fix them. This guy's just a brilliant trader. He's always you know, he's that guy who knows how to help you, and you know he doesn't rip people off. I want to say brilliantrade. I don't mean he goes and just smokes people, but he knows how to say, hey, you could use this, I got something for you, GI me something back, and he just tried, so I think he'll he'll figure it out. Yeah, yes, so, Greg, I mean I know you you watched this closely yesterday. You've concur or you think there's a multiple contenders here. What struck you. Um No, I like the way he started aggressive and and almost kind of made people really pay attention to third base. You know, he was closing that market fast. Um. I mean third base a little deeper this year. Um. One of my guys I love, Justin Turner. He went for a pretty good price, I thought in that auction. Um. But it was interesting to watch and just to see how the how everyone in the room was reacting. And then you know, during one of the brace, I was lucky enough to talk to Derek van Riper and he was telling me I need to go get some steals and then he came right back and got Kean Brox. And so it's not just that you were watching it in person, you're also seeing how people were going to start altering their roster to fill the speckle in and make sure they got everything covered. Yeah. Yeah, well, um, Derek, you know at one point he said, you know, he said, everybody could hear you know, can you win this league without ters? I think had a single one fairly deep in the league. And then you know, bam, bam bammy. You know, loaded up I think with three or four pretty good ones and uh, in fact, let me take a quick look here. I got Kyle Seger at twenty. I think that was one of his first ones. Uh. Nelson Crews also, I recall that can know so I mean he actually wound up routing at the door, wound up building a pretty nice core, and he got a nice price on Greg Burr for seven dollars. I thought, yeah, he he went for fifteen at the NFBC one. I was watching with Nando one for Carl Yeah, so front any observations, so you took parts of you could do your own team or yeah. I mean the thing that I realized early on, I mean I was a rookie to a lot of these a lot of you all have been doing this for doing this league for a long time. Is uh just the speed of the of the draft took a little bit for mein he get used to. There was a couple of times where I purchased somebody uh uh and right off on the next you know, the next nomination with someone I was interested in, you know, trying to sort of keep organized. It was a little bit of a little bit of a challenge, but I I came adapted to it, and and uh, I felt pretty decent about my team. I. Uh, the one thing I got, I got Cabrera an inconconn right off the bat, and uh at that point for thirty six and thirty five. And while I like those prices, uh, soon after that I was kind of kind of doubting myself whether I wanted to uh, you know, having those two big corner guys right off and not uh you know how it's gonna work in team construction, and overall was happy with how it played out. Then, well, I'm glad that you you raised to raise the point of you know, the fast pace of it are auctioneers. Jeff Ferrikson, he keeps it going, keeps going for it, and UM, yeah, I'm so glad you said that because one of the things I thought about in the aftermath, you know, because you know, we're all creating content here, you know, we're we're taking lessons to help others and you know, and also improve our own game. And the one thing that really st me really the first thing afterwards, was the kind of the mental games that I think I don't pay enough attention to. Um, and you know, so part of that is just the kind of the grind of a of a four hour auction and that you are going to make mistakes. Um, you know I made at least one that you know that I regretted almost immediately, and that was getting David Price at eleven when ron Chandler threw him out there for ten and yeah that he keep going, Yeah, you're just trying to move it along. No, no, well, I mean it wasn't. I thought it would move along, but it was just more this you know, kind of very quick thought in my mind, like that that's a bargain. Yeah, you know, he's worth because if he misses, you know, half the season, um, but then you know, but when he lands on your roster exactly what it was real I thought, oh, you know, I think I misjudged this market, and I think that you know, it was relatively early on, so there were opportunities to spend that eleven dollars in a lot of different ways that could have helped me, I think at least as much in certain minimize the risk. But so probably not thrilled with Stephen Matt's getting his next skipped with Well, we talked about that as soon as we got here this morning. That was one that he's like, I can't believe Matts because he saw me tweeted out earlier. I mean, I love him, but that you know, that puts the fear of God right back into me with with with Steven Matt's um but I mean eleven, I like both at eleven price. Well, we'll see how it goes, right, It's always tough in the moment of of March of like are we taking this too seriously or not seriously enough? Because every year there's gonna be some I don't know which injuries they are, but there's some of these injury scares that we're gonna look back on in May, just just in a month and a half and laugh and be like, remember when when we were like so worried about so and so or vice versa. We're gonna be like, we did not pay that enough. I mind. Now this dude's out. So which one is is price gonna be? I know right now we're all leaning toward it's gonna be a bad one. But that could end up being like the steel and it carries you and you don't even worry about matts because you got a thirty dollar price value wise for eleven bucks. So I mean I totally understand you though, where you're like oh, I'm just gonna keep this moving out of leven And then you're like, wait, wait, why did they stop? That wasn't supposed to happen. What are they doing out here? That's a great but that's a great point about the injuries this time of year is trying to discern where they're gonna where they're gonna fall. Part of the information age downside is that we get every single bit and we don't know how to process it perfectly because we just they're just saying, oh, you know, he's got a bulky el but he's gonna miss the start. Do we freak out move them down around? Or is that just kind of the normal thing anytime we hear somebody as a UCL sprain, we completely freak out. Hundreds of guys are out there pitching with UCL sprains, part partial, We don't know what partial it is. Are they had four? Are they had where they at? So? Uh yeah, deciphering and just you know, figuring out what the best way to react to injury news is still kind of an untapped you know, a market inefficiency absolutely, and that kind of gets back to what you know, I was piggybacking off breat with is you know, the speed that you have to think about this. So I think about you know, you asked me what was my thought process with David Price, and it's kind of like this thing from a movie where it's like, in your mind it's in snowmotion dollars, you know, but but you know, really it's happening very fast, and it's you know, and I'm and I'm recalling it and thinking, Okay, number one, that seems like a bargain. Number two. It's early. I know he's risky, but I'm gonna go and I'm gonna build a solid rotation behind him. Well you know, part of that rotation now is Stephen Matt So you know it's uh, you know that that's a good thing for me to kind of notice about my own thought processes. Okay, early in the draft, you know, it's kind of like having a credit card. You think, you know, oh, well, I'm gonna pay this back limit. I can go get whatever I want right now, you know. So there's this sort of mental bias there. And another place that came up was much later on. I got Caesar Hernandez for five dollars and I was very happy about that because Greg just gave you thumbs up because I needed O p P. I needed steals pretty desperately, sneaking. I believe in the babbit for Caesar Cans and um, you know, so he was like one of the few players that I thought could could actually help me in both areas. And but there was again sort of a mental bias. They're like, oh, Caesar, her her name is, I've never seen him pursued in an auction before. Am I going to be crazy? And this was like the fifth or sixth person where I had that thought and I stopped too short with the other players. So this time I did go the extra dollar and I got him. But um, I think I worried too much about what other people think. To be honest, I've been there. I think we've all been there. You know, you had a guy that you got a star by and you think that he's worth eight and he's only at four and you don't say five, and you're like, why didn't I? Why didn't I do that? Why not? I trust the outputs that I have here. And obviously, you know, none of our dollar values are perfect. But if you if you've got somebody double what they're at, you gotta go the extra dollar. I like that. I honestly, I like the rotation that you put together. Got shure as you're leading it. By the way, are you gonna get him to turn to a left hander because everybody else is left handed? That was about strategy. Price guy, go mad Smiley and Warno Rodriguez. I like it. I think it's a solid mix of of your risk and upside because, um, you know, even smiling at five dollars, he could be a twenty dollar pitcher if you can find a modicum of health. Um, I think that that guy is awesome. Edward Rodriguez. The knee seems to be good right now, and that's that's a huge dollar. Guy. How do you feel about Kaiko fifteen bucks? I don't think you overpaid. I think last year the league adjusted, but they didn't adjust to a four fifty. A lot of that was his health. So you feel confident about the shoulder. I feel very confident about him. He's pitched well the springing Again, I hate to put too much stock into that, but it's yeah, well yes, but also with a health guy, I do think it matters whether the results are good or not. But like the strikeouts and walks, his velocity has stuff. We're getting good reports on Kaiko, So I understand why why you're feeling that way about him with regards to the shoulder. Obviously, sure it is your stud I think you got the makings of a good crew here. And then Felice column A as your closers, and Caps as somebody who can maybe take that job from Brandon Mauer. And you have three closers. There is in a situation where you and you'll you'll want to turn some of these guys. Are you gonna give you Gus like a leash, like keep him around for a month, month and a half, or is it somebody that you would burn quickly? Well if he didn't go well, because for me, he was, you know, sort of a sleeper coming in. Um, you know, a guy that I liked. I'll probably give him a leash unless it goes really badly about I can't see giving him less than a month, to be honest, because guy came in believing in him. It's not somebody that I literally took a fly on and thought, well, you know, it's not some membably that interested in but but maybe there's something there. I'll bell him a little bit more of a leash than that. Um, so we've got to go back to break again. But I think we got a little bit more talk about here with the mixed auctions, So stick around. We'll be right back. Welcome back to fan Rag Fantasy Baseball. I'm your host, Alan Melk here, and we're having a special tout Wars edition today. We're on for two hours. We're until two p on the Eastern today and so a bigger show. We've got a bigger group. We've Greg Jewett, our usual Sunday guest from fan Rack, but also we've got from Baseball HQ, got Brin Hershey and from fan Graphs, and I have to because I mix up the fan Graphs and traction, but we have pause for it from fan Graphs. So welcome all. Um. If you've been listening, then you know we've been breaking down the Mixed League auction from yesterday. Uh, we've got the n L going all right now we're gonna come back to the Mixed League. And Greg, I know you had some players you wanted to talk about, but I just I want to kind of do an instant response to something here from Twitter. Uh At Jones, Curtis W. Tweeted at raz Ball, Trey Turner went for only two dollars more than Stanton. That's not the way NFBC drafts have been going. Love that start. Now I'm going to confirm. I'm assuming he's talking about the n L where Turner went for thirty and stant Yeah, stan one for both, Okay both to razz Ball about us de Gray Albright and isn't it less than what Turner went for Yester ex years with thirty four in the mixed? Yeah? So where you got? Because I think Turner is about as polarizing a player as there is the spring. I'm definitely a downer on him. I feel like, like, uh, the expectations have gotten a little overheated. But how Greg, how do you you feel about that comparison between Turner and Stanton? Um? I don't know, because you can't say anybody is you know, injury prone because he's had some freak injuries with Stanton. So I mean both of those, both of those numbers and an L I think represent upside quite frankly, as long as you know Stanton is healthy, that's a good price on him, especially with the opp format um Turner. I think everyone is polarizing. I know, I know Paul has has some stock and Turners, so he can probably speak to a two. I mean, if if he hits thirteen home runs and steals thirty five bags, then where he's going is probably reasonable. It's just where you sit on the fence with those with those totals. I think with training turn or so like there's a first round tax, right Actually, Jeff Zimmerman and I we're talking about this with regards to Carlos Correa last year. I think most of the projection systems probably had him in like the second round when you really kind of stack up where they were, But you're paying that tax because he could go crazy. He could go bananas and be a bona fide first round or now that's probably not You can lose a lot that way by by paying attacks for guys based on potential. But I think that's kind of where Turner is this year. I don't think he needs to advance the power to be worth a first round pick or very cloclose too. I am kind of looking at the counting stats of Starring Marte last year nine homers, forty seven stolen bases um Now the seventy one runs and forty six ribbies. That's because he played a D twenty nine games. If Turner goes ninety seven and then plays a full season atop the Washington lineup and does a D plus on eight plus runs, and I think it'd be even be ninety plus runs to be honest, and then whatever, fifty I don't really care about his RBIs for uh, that kind of guy. We're not We're not focused on the RBIs. So give fifty to sixty and a two eight average. I don't really have a problem with that. At the back end of the first round, I think you also have to factor in that he's gonna be second base, outfield and short stuff. That kind of flexibility in most leagues is so crucial. You're talking about a fifteen team mix. You know he's going. He's going early in the NFBC, there's no trading. You want to have flexibility so that you can get any potential free agent available. So I think you add a couple of bucks of theoretical value or or a few picks in a draft two Turner because of that flexibility. So if you're if you're looking at like I said, Marte plus the vibe, the flexibility. I've got him in the first round. Now, Jason Collette, my my co manager in labor, is even higher on him. So we took him at ten. Bryce Harper was our target. He went at nine. We took him at ten. I personally probably wouldn't have done that if I'm going solo, but I liked him enough that I could concede there because it was like a five pick difference, So I'm like, there's nobody I was gonna bat for. I wish i'd have seen Carlos Korea before that that draft, like because in the WBC, not because of the way he hit, but the way he looked physically, he looks a lot more cut. I think the power is really gonna take a step for car Curs right, And I probably would have lobbied for him. We took him first last year, so I don't know if you would want to go back to that. Well, but I wouldn't have cared. But yeah, I totally get the Turner in the first round. I understand the trepidation for some, but stolen bases is kind of the easiest way to really spike your value, so I think he can kind of earn a lot of those dollars back well, because you made the comparison between UM Korea CIRCA in Turner. Now, UM, Brent, what what occurred to me when when Paul and Paul makes a good case for Turner, UM, but the landscape is so different now that it was a year goo. It's hard to believe that a year ago I was so big and too big on on Korea. But the thought was, not only does he have that incredible ceiling, but it's it's in a pool that looks pretty unimpressive on the whole. And of course we had so many short stops take a huge step forward in Do you that that that uh is a factor to dampen Turner's value or that he even with that improved pool, that he still stands out. I'm with you. I'm a little bit, you know, more wary of of Turner just just because of the sort of when I take a guy in the first round or spend thirty plus dollars on I want more certainty than that at this point, Um, and the Korea example to me is just is the is the easiest one you know to to make a year ago? Uh? You know Karrea was the Turner that we were all excited about. I mean, Paul's point about about stolen bases though as opposed to Crea being a more power guy. I think is is valid though, Uh too because the because the stolen base is given the landscape and uh and the decline and stolen basis uh. And his you know, the speed that doesn't slump really Uh, he has a better I guess, you know, a slightly better chance us and Krant did last year of kind of returning that. But it's a it's a fascinating you know, it's a it's a fascinating thing to look at. Yeah, I agree, and continue to be polarizing. It just sort of like last year Trout versus Harper and that was actually that got kind of resolved earlier than I think maybe we expected. But uh, speaking of resolving, so Greg, you had a shortlist of some players there that you you found the prices to be pretty intriguing. Yeah. Um to to injury guys. Um. And this is the mixed options. So this is Brent and l. J. D. Martini is at six dollars and Ian Desmond at nine. Which which of those two would you prefer to have? Oh, I'll say J D. M. I think they're both incredible values. And I think going back to Paul's point from earlier, that there's certain players will look back a month from now and say, why were we so panicked? And I think that that could very easily be Desmond, more so because the Listbrank injury really does worry me for Martinez, but I just think his ceiling is so so tremendously after last year he proved the plate discipline pretty substantially, has great power. I still think it's a very good lineup that the Tigers have, so um, you know, for six dollars, it's a risk that's hard to see not taking. Yeah, and we let Zinkie get him right after all other STI I mean out there, Yeah, you gotta stop Zinkie. Yeah, it's too good now, I mean I agree. Those are those are again to two of the things that Paul was talking about. You know, those injuries that happen here quick and we have to make a decision on how serious they're going to be throughout the throughout the year or if it's just a you know, looking back in May and like, why are we worried about that? I? Um, I don't, I don't know. They go. I mean they could go either way on like which one I feel is A is the better value I would I would probably lean towards Martinez to um because of the because of the power, and um, you know, the uncertainty of the O B P because the Snowby p leag for for Desmond, uh not you know, not not being as patient there and and uh you know, definitely give you the counting stats, but um, but you know, downgrading a bit just because of the and with a hand, you just don't know how it's gonna affect him when he comes back, rightw how effective is he and Desmond going to be immediately upon return? Now, I think coers Field covers some of that. You can. Maybe he collects a lot of base hits made and them a lot of power. It could be kind of more of an empty batting average with some good runs. Maybe he steals some bases too, But then you know, if the hand is worries some is he gonna steal basis because he doesn't want to head for slides and like reinjure something. So they are both nerve wracking. But I think J. D. Martinez at six bucks, I mean, he can miss a month and you know, a month and a half even, And I think six bucks is too low because I just don't I don't think he's gonna fall apart. So I would obviously honestly have taken either. I would put both on the on the roster at fifteen bucks total. But I think Martinez is the better one. It they're an equal cost. It's it's a different discussion, but with Jane being three hours less, I think he's the better buy. Yeah, none, and you know, you both made I think points that are worth you know, thinking about, you know, for those of you who may have up coming drafts that yeah, you know, I made a point about the LIZT Frank injury for Martinez, but the hand injury could be just as troublesome. And yeah, if you're in an ob P league, you know, or a points league than Ian Desmond, definitely I think deserves an additional discount there as well. Um. Another thing about Desmond too that just came to mind that before the injury and when he signed with Rockies, Uh, some people are making Herodo Para comparisons with him, and initially I really dismissed because well, this is not Herodo Parer. This is Desmond and he's you know, much more proven power source, but they're bad at bult profiles are much more similar than I really realized. Um So I think Paul was you that said, uh that the core is effect you know, may cover for some of them the injury risk. But to what degree do you guys think that's true? I mean, it depends on the injury, you know. Speaking of part he was a nightmare in Cours last year, and you know, you can't just walk in there and and and do anything, right. I think he kind of he kind of showed that in three point appearances last year he had a six seventy one ops. Now they weren't all in course, but the fact is that it did not really lift Harada Para. He was playing through injuries, only playing a hundred two games, so you don't really know. But that also goes to the point of well, if he and Desmon's playing through injuries and he is still dealing with the nagging hand, he isn't necessarily guaranteed. But generally speaking, I I love, of course. I think even as focused on as it is, it's still an underrated aspect of fantasy. I don't think we account for it nearly enough. Um again, it doesn't raise anybody. You can't just take the worst hitters throw them in there. And he's a three hitter. But I think a lot of guys don't get enough. Well, like the Trevors story, I have no problem taking him in the second round. Yes, the thirty percent strikeout rate is worrisome. It is a lot of that is of her, by course, a lot of it. And we we saw we saw the power last year. I think he could run for twenty if he plays a full season. So I love someone like Trevor's story. I just any deficiency a player has if he plays in course, it's got to be minimized, not ignored, but minimized by that park. It's just so good. Plus, don't forget what nine ten games in Arizona as well if you're in if you're a Colorado Rocky, so you get another ten games that are juiced up by playing in Arizona, which is not quite the same level. But that's also a great park that I'm not sure we give enough love to. Yeah, I mean that's a great way of looking at it. I mean I've I've thought about it in that way too. Of just you know, being uh, like you said, minimizing the risk, and and it has to be has to be someone who can hit already obviously, like you said, can't just throw anybody out there. Um. But but it's certainly the fact that we need to uh take care of, you know, take into account. Uh. Yeah, I think, uh that's you know, good point. And yeah, we we focus on on course. But I mean, it wasn't even the best home run park in the Major years last year. I think that was Yankee Steve Um And I'm trying to think Miller Park. I think there may have been another park in the n L A head of I would believe in Miller Park. Insane or people keep under there. There's a lot of value in the in the Brewers. Yeah. On offense. Yeah, they're very good fantasy team this year with their offense. I agree with you. Let's talk about that we come back. We gotta go to break but I like that topic. So, uh, folks, stick with us. We'renn talking about the Brewers when we come back. Welcome back to fan Rag Fantasy Baseball. I'm your host, Alan Melchior, and uh, we've got a bigger crew here today. But it's a bigger show two hours and we're talking tout wars, the A L D n L mixed auction, mixed draft or head to head draft. Rather. We have Greg Jewett here from fan Rag. We also have Paul Spore from fan Graphs, and we had Brent Hershey before but uh, Brent is he's heading back home. So and we are now joined by Jeff Zimmerman and Jeff writes for fan Graphs. But as we were talking earlier today, here we can find you all over the place. So where else else can we find you? Yeah, besides I'm Rhodographs, I will also be at Rhoda Wire and then also doing some stuff for Baseball HQ. That's pretty much my limit right now. That's I think that's enough. Yeah, That's that's where I stand to It's it gets tough to go on and it's also tough to turn down. Work is kind of another thing too, where it's like you still want to view quality and not send too much stuff over to Paul to edit all the time. Well, Um, I've been a big I'm a big fan of all you guys, so I'm really glad to have you joined me here today. Um, and Jeff, you are in the mixed auction yesterday. We're gonna get to that in a second. But I did promise some Brewer talk. I got a little excited about it, so I feel like I gotta follow through on that. But uh, yeah, I think it's not just me. Uh there's a number of players that I think are are drawing some excitement and auctions. Um so from you know, from this weekend so far, or maybe even just from your own drafts and auctions. Um, you know who on the Brewers. Do you think maybe he still has some some on topped value. I mean, I really like the team Kian Broxon's obviously getting a lot of love. Power speed guy. I think he might even still be a little bit undervalued. I understand that the strikeout rate is a problem, right, but he absolutely blasts the ball when he does make contacts. So I think it's a situation where if he can just get sub thirty, right, don't be don't be a thirty five percent strikeout, right guy, you can be eight and that would work for me. But going deeper kind of like off the radar because everyone's you know, VR is going early. Broxon's the hype guy. Uh Braun, We we know about Eric Thames, people you know are hyped on him. I think two other guys, Domino Santana and Travis Shaw, are really interesting, and I think their interest lies in the fact that we know they're good power guys. Right we we've seen, we've seen the power they're on that team that's going to run a ton and then I don't think that either of them is gonna like necessarily steal twenty but if but Travis Shaw specifically, you never think of him as a runout, but he's like a smart runner. He knows what he's doing. I think he could get like twelve just twelve stone bases kind of randomly with twenty five homers perhaps in that ballpark. Uh, that could be really huge. At the third base, Domingo Santana get a power guy that we like, uh to break out a lot of folks like him as an outfield and breakout mid teens sort of stolen base potentially he's shown it before. He's he's really uh, you know, because the figure of a power guy, but he can he has speed too, and so I think with this team, the way they run, you don't want to forget about that. The guys that you might not expect even Eric Thames, who had that season over in Korea. Obviously he's not gonna come anywhere near. But if he's twenty five and twelve, I guess those are numbers. I'm leaning on twelve. But that's like a really good power speed combo. If you're getting thirty seven homers plus stolen bases combined out of these mid round picks, that's a boon. So I really like this team. I think they're going to continue to run wild too. Yeah. Greg, you did a nice analysis on Thames earlier in the off season. Um, I'm trying to remember where you came down on the staff. I think you were pretty close to numbers, very very close to falls with my projection. And then the Steamer actually came out after the article that was more aggressive, and I was like, Steiner was more aggressive than this thing. Is that projection systems love him all there there? Yeah, it's and especially you know in this format, And and I love the price you got Domingo yesterday, right dollar? Yeah, Domingo at a dollar and that O b P I think even bumps him up more because I think he has some latent o BP to him. And if he does get those pocket steels like Paul was talking about, Um, he's somebody that's going really really late in drafts that can really be a roster booster. Yeah. No, I think uh Santana was probably my favorite dollar guy from yesterday, so I feel good about that. So well, Jeff, you can participated in the auction mixed league auction yesterday. You did not get a single Brewer. Were you to come out of you? I was actually trying for VR. He was kind of a target and there was heavy bidding across auction. Probably already talked about that. There was a lot very top heavy, and like I said, I was that was the one I was kind of hoping for getting the home runs and trying to get some skills. It's I think you can find home runs. Used to go to find steels, but now with kind of the power, there seems to be a lot of fifteen that comes out of nowhere. Galvi's hitting twenty that's crazy. Home runs is absolutely insane, Like I mean, with no one even I'm sure he didn't even go to yesterday, but it was like there's twenty home run guys that just like popped up last year and it used to be that way with steel, so I was like, I was trying to lock in some steels, which I had to end up doing. But yeah, he was probably the one Brewer that I was kind of targeting and hoping to get because you'd have the home runs with it too, and you get some like it's not a zero with it, and he's hitting at the top the line up, he gets on base, he gives you other stuff. He's not Billy Hamilton's. I kind of wanted the other stats besides the home runs. It's trying to get it spread out a little bit. I agree with you on that. I don't. I don't really like the speed. Only guys like Billy Hamilton's like that. For some reason. I think you have to alter your draft or auction from that point if you take one of them. But VR, even if his homewer's fallback, I think he had nineteen last year, I think you cut off like seven of those, and I'm still gonna feel pretty happy about twelve fifty stolen bases because the O b P and this is ob P leaks. That really helps him because people are worried about his batting average a little bit too, because he can strike out sometimes, but I thought at thirty two bucks, Joe Pespia got a little bit of a steel. It's hard to say steel when you're talking about guys over thirty dollars, but in that realm, I think in an ob P league, Jonathan br for thirty two is a really nice school. Those those steels are They're so cool. The steels are a steel absolutely. All right, Well, le's let's talk about who you did get, Jeff, so walk us through to the next the nice balanced roster um. I like it a lot, But uh, did you have a particular strategy of mind in terms of, you know, picture hit or split category split, or just looking for value in general. I'm generally a value guy, and I'd actually looked historically at this and Kershaw I think he had a max of thirty six dollars and Trout had never never gone over forty eight, and I was willing to go to those value use which went way past. I was like, I'll go to the historic values and and see if anyone's willing to go aboff, which everyone did yesterday. So I kind of just went to the value mode. After that, I kind of had an idea I was gonna get Chris Davis. He had a risk injury last year. He played through it the whole year. It just really sapped his power. So I literally just went back to his two thousand and sixteen projection and use that. And you're talking about christ of the Seat, right, Yeah. No, I was mad at you because he was one of my targets too, and I thought, uh, he would be underappreciated and you fully appreciate him. So that ruined my plot to to get him. Um. But you know, you made a statement he said that the risk injury sapped his power, and I would argue that actually didn't because the hard contact rate was was right where it's been. I don't recall the home run to fly ball rashop, but the power indicators were I think roughly in the neighborhood they were in. But he lost doubles power. Um. And I'm not sure if we attribute that to the wrist or you know, I don't. Yeah, I didn't know where to attribute it to. But it was just like looking across the board that I don't remember when I wrote it up, but I like literally looked at it, like here's the projection I'm going to use, and I just was like I kind of handed it, like, oh, give him this much more, and it just really looked like it's two projection coming into two thousand six teams. So I was like, I'll just use that, and I'm just like I'll just run with that. And that's kind of where he was last year was around that. Everyone had him a lot higher last year than this year, and I was just like, well, I'll just put him back and hope he's healthy. And it's like you need some kind of breakouts, and I kind of went with the old man breakouts with some of my players, and it was like I was kind of big on Stanton. Um. I just for ran an article a Baseball HQ and really there's no such thing as injury plane hitters, so it's um. Greg was saying that earlier, so hopecially with Stanton and his freak injuries. Yeah. Yeah, and he Casty sort of had a leg. It was like a bloin or something. That was it. Otherwise all this stuff was like being hit and stuff like that. So just looking at those historically players, they don't continue to get here like two O still's got it and he's been healthy for years. Nelson Cruise took him years to get rid of it. Remember when Ev Longoria early on was known as like an injury prone guy. Now in his thirties, he's hundred fifty five games a year, all of a sudden, It is crazy. Sometimes Ian Kindler at the early part of his career he had some injuries, and it's like this guy is just never gonna you know, had that one season, But what's he gonna do Now He's as steady as it gets. So it is a situation where, um, these guys get the tag of injury prone and then they get healthier later in their career because it's not really something where some guys have bad bodies, right, but they're the outliers. Rockleball Delly had a bad but it was just not cut out to be a professional athlete, and that does happen, But those are the outliers. We call a lot of guys injury prone who are not injury prone, as Jeff Study suggests, Yeah, and the the other one you can look at us like, yeah, the David writes one where it's like if this is a yeah, because it's a degenerative batrick, right, But otherwise I'm the best way to actually to kind of get these injury prone guys. Just look at him in drafts. Is you see Stanton, You'll see him against the guy projected six hunder played appearances and he's at five. Take him because he has a chance to be an upside to get to the six hundred. If they have the same projection, they're valued the same. That's your upside is the standing time the Harper's. Those are the guys that have upside right now because everyone's discounting their plainisance. Well, Jeff, we gotta wrap up the hour here, so thank you so much for sharing, uh the segment with us, and you're talking about your team. We will be back at the top of the hour, and uh stay two. We've got a lot more to work and breakdown. Let you see that you're listening to the Fantasy Sports Radio Network. The stage is set, the destination New York City, the field of Battle Rock and Riley's Pub. The grand prize Fantasy Baseball glory. The Fantasy Sports Radio Networks coverage of Tout Wars continues. Now. Welcome back to fan Rag Fantasy Baseball and you've probably gathered we're here at tout Wars Special Tout Wars addition, I'm your host al In Melchior and joined joining me today as usual on Sunday is Greg Jewett from from fan rag and from fan Graphs keeping it straight. There got Paul Spoor here for at least part of the second hour of the show and joining us. And what was the Jeff Zimmerman seat is Mike Podhors are also from fan Graphs, So welcome Mike. Too much fan Graphs going on, we need to mix it up. No, not enough, not enough, Greg, we need to sign you on fan Graphs at all. A fan graps. We're all just That's that's what it comes down to. So all right, we've we've broken down the head to head uh uh draft. We are not the draft from storry of the auction, the mixed auction. We've done a little bit of analysis on the NL auction. So it's time for ail auction. Time time for some a l action. So you took part in that, and uh, you drafted every Yankee. I bought every game essentially, and I'm not even a Yankee fan. That's kind of the interesting part. So um, of course you started with Trout. It looks like you you went a little bit heavier in offense than than pitching. I want to talk about your pitching first, Uh, Felix, Hernandez, David Price, Matt Shoemaker, are your are your double digit guys, Craig Kimbroll, even Craig kimber some people are seeing as a little bit of a risk. I'm not sure that he's necessarily risky. But let's talk about Felix and Price. Are the ones that are gonna get attention. Felix at sixteen, Price at thirteen. Talk first about Felix, Um, you see what kind of bounce back are you seeing here? Obviously at sixteen you see something coming back, and then we'll get to Price with the injury. Yeah. I came into the season kind of down on Felix. His velocity was down last year. It's been in decline basically every year for the past couple of years. He had some control issues, you know, there's been a little talk of elbow problems the last couple of years, and so he's a guy I was kind of nervous about. However, in spring, his velocity is up. It looks like he's throwing two now, and I think that's a big deal. So whatever is the cause for that, velocity rebounds. Um, I'm not sure, but it makes me a little more encouraged about his prospects for actually rebounding. And I don't expect the felix of old, but if we can get a low three ear A rather than a mid to high three ear at, he's gonna easily be a profit at sixteen bucks. And I think with that increased velocity that's more and more likely than I expected going into the season. And if there's health, uh, you're getting a boatload of innings with it too, So you're gonna get that mid mid to low three z r A for for two plus innings. Uh. And then price, of course, is the big question of the weekend. We were talking about him in the mix. You paid thirteen. I don't think that's a bad price in an a L. You're just taking the upside gamble there. Yeah, crossing my fingers that he's not gonna end up on the d L. And of course we don't know if that elbow problem is going to affect us for formats as well, so crossing my fingers it doesn't put him back on the deal sometime during the season, and of course, when he's actually on the mound, he'll give us a good price rather than the mediocre one that we saw last year. And the thirteen bucks, I figured it was a cheap enough price to take that risks pretty solid gamble. I agree, So price thirteen in the a L versus eleven in the mixed Yeah, I think I think Mike got the better part than like one there. Sure, let's keep going with your pitching because there's not too much separating Felix and price for Matt Shoemaker at eleven. I really like Shoemaker. I was disappointed not to get him in the mixed auction. Was he a target for years? Was that your price for No, he wasn't a target, but just looking at my values, it seemed like I'm like, Wow, Mat Shoemaker, fourteen bucks, Okay, looks like I'm probably gonna get him. And I think the question was just how he was gonna rebound after getting him in the head last year. But it looks like in the spring he's looking good and he's back on track, and if he continues to throw that splitter is off as as he has uh in the second half of last year, I think he's going to be a good source of strikeouts, and he's not in a good ballpark for flyballs, and you know he gives up flyballs on home runs. So he's in a good spot. And I think he's going to be strong all season long and a good value at eleven dollars and moving over to the hitters. So curse your big ticket items is Mike Trout. We also have that in common forty seven dollars. Um was that? I mean? I had a conversation with Fred Zaki right before the auction yesterday and we both said neither of us could remember ever owning Mike Trout, and I certainly had never. I've been fifty one in the mixed on m I've never been that high in its out Wars auction maybe in one or two others at most. So is this uh? Was that a thing that surprised you that you went that high? Or no? Actually I had a plan this. So Friday finished my spreadsheet, finished my values, I was going down the values and I had Mike Trout worth over fifty bucks. And I had to tell myself because I know in the moment I could never or bring myself to bid over forty dollars on a player, especially aile only if you get a guy injured that you just paid over forty dollars for the replacements. It's it's said twelve team and only. Yeah, unbelievable the scrape and Travis would as a reserve, like and I'm excited about it exactly. Yeah, so sorry, go ahead. But like so you said you could not comfortable going forty, you will go seven more dollars because you knew you had him at fifty plus on your value. And so I had to psych myself into it, saying, all right, going in, I will go up to fifty bucks no matter where he ends. If it's below fifty dollars, I'm going to be that high bidder. If it exceeds fifty, I'm probably gonna drop out. I want to be too nervous, But anything below fifty, I'm going in. I had to tell myself that going into the auction, because if I didn't, I wouldn't be able to pull the trigger. You know, that's funny that you say that, because I regretted not going to the extra dollar on trout in one of my earlier auctions, and so I'm sure that had a lot to do with me having the guts to go to the one on him, because I don't remember if it was that I failed to go to fifty or it was gonna right in that same area and I and in the previous one, I bailed, and so this one I said, yeah, I'm going to do yeah, And he actually went for about the same price. And last year's a all auction, and yet this version of Trout is back to ceiling bases again, and he upped his on base percentage even higher. So this is a better version of Trout, and I got it for the same price. It's interesting. I think a lot of folks have the same reservations that you and ality about going fifty on somebody and or even pushing him past when an actuality, I mean that that's where he's at. I think a lot of people that run their numbers probably come to the same conclusion that he's above fifty, but they're like, oh, I can't pay that, though yes you can, you really can. With Trout, I mean that a few things are more guaranteed than Trout is insofar as we can guarantee anything. So I like what you did there with Trout. I love your secondary stud to Francisco Indoors. Somebody I'm really excited about. Um. I do think that he's going to give you kind of like a bit of everything. Right, Are you expect be more of the same from last year or any changes to his profile as he gets his second year going. I expect more of the same. And the thing is that there were really no discounts in the middle and field, so it's a matter of either getting a guy at value or you know, saving a buck or two. And I wanted to get that guy, and Lindore was the only guy who was basically not going over my price. I'm happy to get five category production from him. He's gonna be in the middle of the lineup all year, gives him some power, stolen bases, good on base guy. So he's all there, and he wasn't as expensive as some of the other guys. One price stands out to me here, uh for your your team, that's Shins too at sixteen. So, um, you know, I'm sure that you know where the question is. The helps that though ob pity helps, that's that's clearly that that gives him a boost in the format. Um, he's just somebody who I don't really have a do not draft list, but if I did he would be on it because wyow, please enlighten us because he's hurt all the time. I know it's a huge shot that that's That's where I'm going with us. But I mean, so, what was your thought process? Well, I know he went I believe it was two years ago. He went for in the thirties in this league, and that was when he was ov ping like four hundred and twenty home runs ten steels. Obviously he's not that same guy, but still he's always gonna have a good ov P. He always walks a lot, he still has power. He's an excellent lineup at a really good park, so he's got everything there. And for sixteen bucks, that's probably the cheapest he's gone in a while. It really is, And obviously it's because the the injuries piled up last year and I played forty games. But even that, you still saw the three fifty seven o v P. The dude knows the strike sound shinsuchu is gonna get you good ov P. So I like it. You know, I got to find a monicum of health there. But it was a decent gamble. I want to talking about one of your flash year ones. I don't think you overpaid though on Greg Bird twelve dollars. Obviously his stock is rising league, you know, all over the place. I saw an NFBC where they list kind of the men pick like the earliest they went. Somebody took him inside, uh right around a hundred, which I think is is kind of obscene. I was curious to see how he was gonna go twelve dollars and a l I didn't think he paid that big of attacks. How do you feel about the twelve dollar purchase? That shocked me because he's a guy that had a big spring training and that usually inflates prices. Maybe you know, this is an industry league. Maybe we're a little too smart to actually inflate prices. But people are already excited, exactly, and and the thing is going into the season. I loved Bird. Then they signed Chris Carter, and I was annoyed because I thought I was gonna get burden each league. Now I'm a little nervous because if Bird struggles, he's not gonna face lefties. He might be losing at Batson now to right ees with tow Carter. So that really prevented me from drafting him in my previous two leagues, and now with the big spring training that solidifies his role, he might not even get benched against lefties every single time. So I'm just shocked. And I got him for twelve. I figured for sure to go for a far more than that. Yeah, no, I would too. It was good, good price figos, scarring through some sort of spreadsheets everything. So no, I've the fan Raig draft that you shows not to do, I'm doing it. So I've been making picks while we've been doing your multitasking. I'm trying. I'll tell him, Paul I got, I got two force of the Rockies in field, so I got le Mayhew and Story just head to head. You can't go wrong by picking Rockies, especially when you're at home. Yeah, you're just not gonna go broke on that. So well that that's that's some impressive multitasking. And Bryce Harper felt me at eight, so I was excited. I couldn't hit I couldn't hit By fast enough on that one. I was like, I'll take him at eight all day start. So let's get back to Bird because there's a lot to talk about with him. He's such a perfect fit for Yankee Stadium because that short right field porch is he's a lefty, he hits a ton of flyballs. He doesn't necessarily need a really high homeword for flyball ratio to hit thirty home runs. So he's a he's a perfect guy for that stadium. All right, So you said you've got all these Yankees and you're not a Yankees fan. But I'm starting to, you know, see question that not not not question the fandom, but but you know a bias here that I agree with because I agree completely with what you just said about Bird. You got Aaron Judge for three dollars, which in the nail only I think is fantastic value. And Matt Holiday at fourteen, now I got him for three in the mix which I thought was great value. There I think one in the twelve team that's crazy. So you know, I guess you know clearly you you had competition here. You've had people in this ail auction who were valuing Holiday higher than um in the mixed auctions at the Paul and I were in. But you know clearly you were motivated to go. So is this all part of a pattern here or well it's c O B P. I mean, Yearly was ob p as well. Uh, I just love Holiday betting clean up in that part because he's been in a picture's park for a couple of years and now in St. Louis. I mean, obviously, he started out his career in Colorado, so he has hit in a hitters part before. This is a much more favorable hitting environment. Batting clean up. He's gonna be the d h the majority of the time. We don't have to worry about injuries. They are a little less about injuries for him, and he's should be a lot for twenty home runs, good run production, and a high on base percentage. And fourteen dollars to me is a it's a really good price. This power was really through the roof last year played games, but Holiday's power was there. We love Yankee Stadium for lefties, but it's no slouch for righties either. So I did like your focus. You know, you backed up your judge. I'm not a huge judge guy, but three bucks I would I would definitely take that. And then you backed him up with Hicks. If things go south and he does strike out too much and he can't get it done, they're gonna give Hicks the playing time. It's a different profile that you get all of a sudden, you're probably looking at like a twelve twelve sort of guy. But I like that you even backed it up, so you know, we can we can kind of poke fun or or or make jokes about the Yankee thing. But I think you did a really good job and you got the right ones. I'm sorry, Yeah, Paul, and you love ticks last year if I yeah, absolutely, I mean, and this is the same guy. I mean, obviously he was a disappointment, but he got like, like, how can you get on a roll there? So I mean this is still a guy with the same upside and skills. I completely agree. That's why I love that you just want a head and said I'll take the judge insurance and go from there. So your offense came together. One one last guy I want to talk about. Saladino is a sneak tip. I just really like him at seven with with Larry getting cut, Yeah, no, I do to. I picked him up in the reserves in the mix and let's go go to the reserves just real quick before we hit break here. So you got Hicks. I'm assuming that was an intentional move. That was the handcuffed for a judge was Travis would the handcuff for Carnes or you just know it is a handcuff for Price. I really like Carnes. I love Royals pictures, that outfield defense, the park, it's just a perfect environment for pictures, especially flyball guys like Travis Wood. I mean, this is the perfect spot for Travis would obviously be better in the National League, but Cincinnati, Yeah, I mean, I don't know how long he's gonna stay in the rotation. You got Matt Strom in there as a maybe if Chris Midland proves that he's healthy, maybe he moves in eventually. But for the time being, while prices on the d L, Travis Wood is the perfect replacement. I mean, our pickings are slim, so there's really not much to choose from. Yeah, to find someone that you're excited about in the there, that's pretty good. Yeah, absolutely absolutely so. And I want to talk a little bit about that more when we come back and break out ahead, break right right now, but a little more reserved, talking a little more Ale League analysis of Stay tuned. Welcome back, everybody, a fan rag Fantasy Baseball. I'm your host, Alan Meltner. We are here live and Rock and Riley's and Manhattan for the Top Wars Extravaganza, got the and Il auction going on right now. This closes out the series of auctions for this weekend. Great great times with great folks that I don't get to see mostly the rest of the year. And we've got somebody else joining us here. Paul Sport has left us, so we get some great analysis from Paul and now joining us from Rhodo experts, Mr Scott Engle, a former I was gonna say colleague of mine, but that's not exactly right because I wasn't working in Fantasy at CBS ME when we're there back in the day. But we we go back a long way. We we do. And you know, it's great to hear you on the network. Great deal of fan rag doing their things. You guys are doing a great job. When when I heard you you were coming over, I was very excited. I said, not only did Al really know his stuff, because I think you contributed some articles when I was working there early, and I was like, Wow, this guy really knows this stuff. I said, Al's like one of the nicest guys in the business. I said, it's no wonder that he had non no dafino A good friends. That's a huge couple it So thank you, Scott, I will, I will take it and I appreciate it, and I'm very glad to have you on, and not just because you said that. Uh So we were breaking down the ale only auction. We've got my cod Horserre here from Fan Grafts and we also have a Greg Joey here from Fan rag Um and we were talking. We wound up the previous segment talking about your your reserve round picks, and so we we focused on Aaron Hicks and Travis Wood, who you both said were handcuffs of a sort. So there's you know, certainly different ways to go at the reserve rounds. I know it probably doesn't seem like a big deal. Maybe it's an afterthought for for some, but um, you know, you can go the up side route and just take the crazy flyers, or you can you know, get your insurance policies. So at least with two of the four you did that. I mean, do you have a standard approach, tried and true approach for that or just yeah, just fly fly by the c I generally want major leaguers a lot of the guys, they go for that upside and they pick the top prospect who probably won't get called up until September, and in September they're probably not even gonna play. And the thing is, we only get four reserves, so you're not You're either gonna lock yourself into only three reserves the entire season because you just want to hold on to that one guy until September, or you're gonna get hit with injuries or under performers and you're gonna be dropping him by the end of May. So there's it's just a waste to me. So I want guys that are actually gonna help me now rather than have to wait five months until they can potentially help me and even know if they're gonna help me in September. Yeah, let's uh. I think that's I don't know, from my perspective, I think that's a rarer approach. I mean, for example, Glabor Torres was a guy that was picked in the is are around. He's never having a bat above high a what is he gonna do. Get up in September, He'll get some games in, so you're gonna hold him all season long. Use one of your four reserve slots on a guy that maybe we'll come up in September and start a couple of games. It just seems like a waste of a pick to me. All Right, it's a little negativity on the Yankees there, no, but but he makes a great point because if you're in the league only format, you're trying to get all the endings in a battage you can get your hands on. So when you're speculating on somebody that could come up, um, it does handcuff your roster a little bit because you're not going to drop him because obviously somebody else will pick them right up if you have to do something. But you want flexibility, you want to be able to have that things. Guy goes down. I know, at least he might only give me twenty at bats this week, but he's gonna get him at bats. How do you feel about your Tyler Skaggs pick? I was very curious because only three dollars. Uh. The guys dealt with a lot of injuries, but there's certainly a ton of potential there. Got off to a rough start in the spring, that's kind of turned it around recently. All I care about for him is his velocity. His fast ball velocity was up after coming off of Tommy John. I believe he's basically maintained that this year in spring training so far. So that's what I'm really concerned about. Obviously, the injuries are an issue, but he should be healthy right now, and so I'm very encouraged by that increase in velocity, and I think eventually it's going to translate into really strong results. I was very surprised. We talked earlier about the steamer projections for Eric Thames, and I think if there was a projection that surprised me more than that one, it was their projection for for Tyler skaggs Um. I thought very very optimistic. I believe that was a mid three let's say three r A Am I correct? And I'd say no higher than I mean, I canna look it up, but yeah, yeah, Fames. I thought it was a little absurd. I'm like Jared Cross, He's the guy who developed these steamer projections, Like, Jared, where are these coming from? Like I I mean, really, for for Thames, it's really just uh a wild guess because we really have no idea and we have so few Korean Baseball League players that have come over that. It's really hard to say. It's a real challenge to project. I mean my projections were just conservative and we really don't know, so who knows. We'll find out at the end of the season. However, I do think the themes is going very cheaply in the majority of leagues, and I think at that price, he's certainly worth the risk. Yeah, so I've looked up skags and good call by you, Mike. Three point five seven e r A projected twenty four starts, uh eight point nine case per nine three point one walks, that would make him a bargain. Um, I didn't project. I wasn't that optimistic, but I am definitely so four e r A and my projections. Uh, that seems like the ultimate outside of the Steamer projections. Yeah, and I wasn't because you know, last year, I mean it was very limited innings, but he did um, you know, transcend the the ending rather struck out per inning mark. But that's not you know, by and large the Tyler scags that we've seen. Yeah, and I know Steamer incorporates velocity into their projections, so I'm sure. I'm sure they were very encouraged and that velocity bump probably has a lot to do with those very optimistic projections. That's that's the it's really good to know. Um So, in terms of the other teams, we broken down your team quite a bit, like, but have you had a chance to kind of survey the l landscape? And no, I I rarely even during the auction, like, I don't look at other people's teams. I have no idea what teams are doing. Actually, last year, it turned out that there was a team that bought a nine dollar pitching staff, which I've always wanted to do and always thot it would be fun. I didn't even realize it. I didn't realize it until the end, like or maybe like the maybe the second to last picture he bought. I'm like, wait a seconds, And I'm sure everybody else realized it before I did. But I don't really pay attention to other people's rosters other than the fact that I need to know what positions they need and how much money they have leftovers. I don't care about the names because I'm playing my own roster. I care about my own team and that's it, and I I really can't worry about what other people are doing. Alright playing the course that I like that a lot. Uh you guys, I mean, you know, and actually I feel, you know, after a draft, like I'm amazed, like when when we go to follies after you know, the big bixed auction and everybody's you know, talking about the rosters and you're not talking up, but you're talking about their rosters. And I'm always amazed how much bandwidth people have to kind of scan the whole league and you know, say, well, you know, I did well here, but you know sometime well get there. Uh how do you uh, it's got how do you you you approached after a draft America, you kind of just you know, play the golf course or you know, or you start right away kind of looking, you know, sizing up the competition and maybe looking for trade possibilities or looking at strikes and weaknesses that that sort of thing. For people listen to me during the week, it's like my my co host never never believe me. But I never look in like other teams, Like like in any sport, I'm so invested in my own team. I don't have the bandwidth to to to look at the other teams. Because as soon as my drafts is over. I'm obsessing about where my strengths and weaknesses are that I don't have time to like look at the other teams necessarily, I listen, want to make a trade with them, like right out of the bat, and you know it's uh, I probably won't have to do that because I'll probably get an email from Fred Ziggy as we speak, even mentioned his name. Yeah, we were all thinking it. He actually told me that he's vowed to take it easy on the trade front this year. He said that last night. Yeah, he hasn't made one trade offer in labor mixed, and I'm quite disappointed, frankly, and that they threw afted a few weeks ago. And then right, yeah, it was more than a month ago. We drafted Greg looked like you you uh, we're looking to chime in there. Uh no, No, that was just a trade offer in his inbox. Yeah, I mean, well renowned for you know, sweetheart deal. Yes, but it's led to lots of success. Absolutely, yeah. No, And you know, he's I think he's one of those folks who, you know, his mind just works a certain way that he can you know, absorb all that and so he's instantly looking at possibilities. Yeah, I'm too lazy to trade seriously, because it takes a lot of time to actually look at other rosters and see what they need, and then try to craft an offer that's fair and then try to vince the other owner that yeah, it's a great trade, it's gonna help both of us, or it's gonna help you. Don't worry about my team. It's just like I just don't want to do it. I'm just too lazy. Well, how many how many legues do you have this year? This year is gonna be four, Last year it's been typically three. I know some other guys I know sports, you're saying, like fifteen. I can't do that. You're then rooting four and against every single player. And so that's why I like having the same players on each team, because then I only I can root for those players. Then a lot of times if I trade a player, I kind of want to trade a player from both of my team and then the same player from both teams because I don't want to still own him in one league if I'm like rooting against him because I just traded him. So I can't be in so many leads. It's too hard to pay attention and really be active in that many leagues. Yeah, and I can't be one of those people. To me, one league has absolutely nothing to do with the other. If I end up with the same guys, it's coincident. It's fine. It's like I I did my fs W A A L on the auction. Last week. I went I went off to Chris sale. Yesterday, I went off to a sale. It's it's I I take every league as individual because every league is unique. Yeah. Uh, Scott, how many leagues do you have this year? Right now? I I have four. I've been trying to trim it down and just you know, you take more laser focus on each league. I have that. I have my Dynasty Slash Keeper League. That's unique. It's like six by six with like uh with like slugging percentage and quality starts and and stuff like that. You do your keepers under a salary cap. And We've got a big money league next week. Uh here in New York that's running by Tony Sankata, the Greanted Street Tavern League, which is owned by Chris Picaro. Okay, yeah, as far as what how many teams, Well, we spoke earlier, um when we were just talking when we when we got here, and I was saying, like a lot of my drafts, I've almost been in the same spot. I drafted eighth and twelfth in the NFBC. Uh the drafting in right now, I got eighth the draft him doing night, I'm seven. So I'm like, I keep finding myself at the same because the drafts keep kind of zigg in the same way. So I'm getting a lot of the a lot of congruents in my rosters just because I'm always kind of box into the same place. But you know, if you know where your targets are and where your values are, if you're in that same slot, it almost makes it easier. Like this draft is easy because I can kind of anticipate who's going to be around and who isn't. So this makes how many for you? Uh this one right now? Because I think you've done some of mox. I know that's the box. Don't really like the box. Yeah, I'll probably be in about nine or ten because I'm gonna do to twelve team nfbc's this week. This is my first time doing the Drafted Champions this year with the NFPC. I did keep up. You know what, I actually did. But again, now I have a lot of similar players, so if somebody gets hurt, I know I can fix them on a couple of rosters. So I believe it was two years ago. I decided I'm only in three leagues. This would help you even more. I made a spreadsheet and I counted up how many players from each team I owned to determine which game to watch. So if I had, like if I have like five Yankees in total and all my rosters the Yankees, somebody watching every night. Oh yeah, no, well welcome to my world. Uh yeah, And I've carved it down. I think two years ago, I think I had fifteen. Last year, I got it down to twelve. This year nine and fifteen teams. Yeah, and it's insanity. So I've been trying to carve it down. I have a hard time. No, Sometimes you should make that spreadsheet so you know which games your prayer order, what games to on. What I what I did do last year was I made a spreadsheet, you know, with every league and every player, so I knew how many shares I had, and then you can then sometimes they're on to see how many players it was pretty well, you know, divested h spread Cross, but I had something ridiculous like eight or nine shares of Justin Borlander and it worked out obviously last year. Yeah, yeah, what if? What if you're playing daily though, then what do you decided to watch at night alone with you see your daily team? No, I don't like watching a daily. If I got stuff in a daily, I feel like I'm a jinx. The one time I hit the moon shot, I didn't watch any of the games except for Chris Davis home run. I'm like, oh my god, we might win some money. That's why, that's why it was superstitious. Huh A little bit. Well, we gotta we gotta hit the break. So uh, we'll come back. We'll talk more, to talk more strategy, So stick around. Welcome back everybody to fan Rag Fantasy Baseball. I'm your host, Al Melk you are, and we are here live from tot Wars. We've got the nl entree. It's still ongoing, I believe, yes, uh and uh, we've got a crew here, expanded crew. We've got Greg Jewett, our usual Sunday guest from fan Rag. We have Scott Engel from Rhodo Experts, and uh now joining us Mike poth hoors Are is gonna come back for the next segment. But joining us now is Laura Michael's from Master's Ball. So that the word on the street, that's that's what I've been hearing. So well, Laura, well thanks for joining us. We welcome to the show. Thanks, and so, I mean, this is a pretty fun weekends. It's it's it's always it's not a bad way to get and we actually go back aways. We go back like fifteen twenty years now that I think about, I mean, I remember, I think you were like a philosophy student with with hair longer than mine when I first met you. We didn't known each other for so long that I've come full circle with the facial hair because I had the ponytail and the beard and the mustache when I first met you back in like thousand. Yeah, it's probably around it because it was I was writing for HQ that Ron Shandler gave me my first job, paying job in baseball writing for h Q and UM and we we met it I think first pitch probably around two thousand and yeah. So I had the all the facial hair and long hair and all that. The long hair is gone, but the facial hairs. Hairs make it come back. Actually no, I think my hair was long then, but I mean I had it short for a period of time that I now regret. But but what's perfect about that is Ron gave you. You know, you have the first guy you worked for for a paying gig in in the industry was Ron. So if he comes in to replace me, the first guy I worked for as a paying gig in the industry while Benson. But was that guy over there, Wow, Laura Michaels was was wrote for CBS sports Line back in the late ninety nineties. You know I had Uh, I had baseball. Uh. I guess we'd call them stringers if you want. Uh. You know, Laura, Laura was my regular guy every week. I was well strong, this is this is did we have we have different uh, we have different had branches of sports line history here once again, yesterday when you joined, it was me, you and Nando yesterday with it's all it's all a tree sort of. And one of the reason things too is I mean we're pretty well one of the things for sure, you out wrong, Scott, and I mean we've all been crossings and past for twenty years and and we were all here at the beginning of the industry really, whether anybody likes to admit it or not, either for for my virtue of age and not wanting to acknowledge that or acknowledge that was the seeds whatever. But it is a tight, close little community, and you know, we all everybody's written for everybody else, and everybody knows everybody else. So to that degree, despite the fact that we're all as individual players ridiculously competitive, we are kind of one sort of homogeneous isotropic unit, wouldn't you say. I used to say, like we're a big we're big fraternity. It's like we're Phi Kappa Roto or something like that. Is that anything like I felt a fire at a pie or you missed I felt the thigh, so oh boy, I can miss that. Let's say if I can interject, Because um Nando, who went to high school where I teach um his mom gave me fantasy Land, which kind of made me a think, like, you know what, I like playing fantasy, but maybe I would like to write about it too. And then he got me a position with guys at Rono Analysis give me my start, and then I got picked up by fan Rag and I've done numerous mock drafts with you, but this is the first thing. He wanted me to come down last year, and I'll scared. I'm like, I'm not ready. These guys are way above me. And then I came down this year and as everybody was just just been so nice, shaking hands, you know, the followbacks on Twitter, it's just been you know what you guys talking about it. It's just been so warm and welcoming. It's just blow me away. And and but I understand that because I remember when I was when I was invited out for my first out and I played. I was good locally, right, you know, big fish, little Pond, I could I could whoop everybody in my local league and stuff like that. But I never played beyond that, and I got I remember riding on the plane and having queazy stomach, and Jesus, I mean, I know what I'm gonna do. Here's my you know, strategy and stuff. But god, what if these guys are really good and I can't cut it, I'm think goingould be really humiliated. And it's easy for you though, It's like you're you're this cool guy. You know. I've seen the clips to you with your rock band on stage. He's the one guy you know, the all events like serious and everything, lawyers standing around, he's on the side. He's just showing and he's jumping around with the guitar and everything, and you know, it's like he's Shelvid. So you know, just to pretend, you just have to pretend you were you were on stage with your band. Well that actually there is there is something to that. I I used to run a lot of meetings when I had my real income earning gig at a T and T. I used to run a lot of very very big meetings and somebody has to you, how do you do that? And I played a band. I mean, I'm used to standing up in front of four people with an acoustic guitar. If I can do that by myself standing in front of thirty five people trying to keep them organized as nothing, So yeah, that's good to get good preparation for that. I do want to break into your team a little bit here. You've got a lot of my faves. You've got Carl Santana, and I'm sorry this is a preface that so well I can ever get a musician on my team is a good thing. That's right now. I thought it was very smooth pick. So, uh, you got Chris Davis with the Kent three, Chris Archer as your ace. Now we've had so many people through to day. I don't remember who else it was we had here who too did the same Um Paul. Paul had Archer on his huge offense staff. That was his anchor for picture. And and I predicted all of these because when doing the mox with Lar, I knew every time on the turn, I wasn't gonna get Archer. I wasn't gonna get Chris Davis. Um, you know kier Meyer, I see on there. These are all guys that he talked. I mean, but what's cool is is you do the mocks of these people. So it's not just like Lar's mocking to mock. He's he's understanding whose targets are and he's said now where he wants to hit him. So you know, you get your people, and you're talking about this when you're coming in. You you have your targets. You stay with it. Your queasy on the thing. And I was queasy driving down here from Syracuse the other day. But once I started meeting people in shaking hands. It just goes away. But you know, I told I was like, he's going to get archer. I know what's coming. And then there it went, Um, how do you feel about Max Coupler or seventeen? He was? He was he There were several guys I was kind of looking at and I had I had like nineteen dollars sort of peg for that slot, and he just kind of I was at a point in the draft to where I had a little bit more money. I had money to spend, and I was budgeting it out really well. But I try to be really really careful so that I could go into the last end game with the most money. You know that That's that's that's part of what I like to do. I can be very, very very patient. The problem is sometimes you can be too patient. But because the same thing happened with PLUF, I was really looking at Castellanos, but both of them came up, I forget who it was I was looking for that. I thought it might be twenty dollars, and when PLUF came up for ten, you know, Castellanists might cost me nineteen eighteen nineteen bucks ten bucks frozen on PLUF, I get a starter third baseman. It could probably hit ten fifteen homers. All right, I'm gonna use that eight bucks that elsewhere and grab him and kind of the same one with Kepler or Okay, it's three or four more dollars I can save towards the end game. I feel good about him. I think he's at a good year last year. I think he can maintain if nothing else. And you know, I was, I don't have a real st Tannis is close to a real bangers I have, But I've got five or six guys who can hit twenty homers. He kept are being one of them, So I was, I was kind of happy about it. Plus you're you're right, there are guys I targeted in the mock drafts and I like. But I tried to mix it up and see what what will my lineup look like if I don't have Chris Davis. And I do love Chris Archer. I thought I was going to get him in Labor for eighteen. He pitched so well, He's had a good spring. He was so great at the WBC. He cost twenty two at Labor. So when I reevaluated everything a thought and I got different starting pitchers, in the labor, I thought, I really want Archer. I'm gonna build my staff around him, and I'll budget twenty four for him. And there he was. You got Jordan's element for a dollar? Is there is actually in fair? Is it two dollars and fifty cents too much based on what we saw last year? Uh? You know that this guy in the American League now he doesn't strike anybody out. Uh? Is this a guy that maybe even want to keep on your bench earlier in the year. No, not not yet. I mean remember when he first pitched last year for Detroit, didn't you go five? And oh? At first he was like lights out and then he got hurt and then he struggled. So and I don't think he's as bad as when he struggled for three bucks. You know, for three bucks, I can throw him back. But for right now, if he's an everyday arm especially the first month of the season, unless I see something that really upsets me, I'll let him go. I tend to be slow. I tend I tend to try to give my guys a chance, which sometimes can be good because I'm patient. On the other hand, if you're gonna pick guys out of the out of the waiverpool. Now is the time because now you're gonna get if somebody grabs a job, now you're gonna get the maximum innings or at bat. So you have to be kind of proactive with that. Now, you said that you've got a lot of guys that were your targets. Maybe not necessarily what you set out to do, but you know you got your guys. Are you a Nake one guy? Because Nike one for ten dollars it seems slaying a lot of people are very uh skeptical of him after you know, a really good power breakout last season, so you're more of an optimist. Um, well, again, I had actually was looking at getting Dye Rosario and and Outfielers. By then we're getting a little bit thinner, and I'd packed like three or four for Rosario. But by the time it got around there, I thought maybe it would maybe he would go for a little bit more. And again by that time, you know, I'd saved some money here and there, and I just thought, I know he's going to start. Just just grab it, get it, get it over with, put the extra money away. As it was, Rosario went for three dollars less. So I probably I might have been able to wait. Well, I would have got him for eight if i'd bit up one. So it's only a two dollar savings. But the most thing is for ten bucks, I got an everyday guy who probably hit around two seventy. Give me fifteen homers and steel ten bases. I'll take it, you know, I'll take it any day of the week. Yeah, how about your catcher situation. Was this an intentional punt here at a couple of one dollar catchers or just how how things? Uh? I don't really think it's punting. I you know, I'm okay with one dollar catchers. I'm okay for my four bucks or whatever I spent on Leon and and and Joseph. If the two of them give me ten twelve homers collectively and they knock in sixty runs collectively and they're about two sixty collectively for two dollars, great, that's that's that's a pretty good investment. And their backup guys for the most part that you know, Joseph, I liken Joseph a lot to Chris Herman because they're almost the same age. They have almost the same curve development through the minor leagues and you know, if if and Joseph's actually trying not to pay too much attention to spring numbers, but he's hitting two seventy five get two homers, um so and and Leaders as well, not that Leaders got that much end of his career. But if if, if, if he gets his two bats as a backup catcher and he gives me five homers, that's fine for a dollar, right, you know, yeah, yesterday for five bucks in the mixed league. So I'm glad here did you say that? Well? And and Castile? I mean, he's not really known for his defensive metrics, so that if if the staff is struggling, I could give more at best to Joseph down the road. Do you worry about Francisco not yet? Asked me? Well, asked me and asked to be in six weeks or and and and and mostly you know how it goes. People say, how do you like your team? Might go? Ask me in October. That's the thing everybody has asked me. I know, this is my fifth year and tout and every single year I love my team on auction day, absolutely love it. And it's really only worked out well once you know it's the first year I've actually liked my team draft. Well, don't you guys find out. I mean, I remember a couple of times, especially early on when I played locally, that I remember walking out of a draft one day. No on, I just did beat the crap out of everybody, and I did win. But for the most part, whenever I end up with a team that I think in a draft war, I think I did really well a fair miserably. That's it's like the kiss of death is a team that you like, and I think I really liked this team, which I probably Yeah, exactly exactly. We can get out start wearing black arm bands tomorrow. Well, we gotta head to break. So we got one more segment left, and you alluded to the fact that we got very special guest coming up. So in case you didn't hear that, stick around stay two to see who it is. We'll be right back. Welcome back everybody to fan Rag Fantasy Baseball. I'm your host, Al Melchior, and uh we are honing in on the final segment of our two hour Tout Wars extravaganza. We are here live at Tout Wars in New York and joining me is Greg Jewett from fan rag and back with us as Mike Potters are from fan Graphs. UH, and I want to thank Laura Michaels from a Master's Ball for joining us for the last segment. He has gone, uh, well actually he's uh, he's around here, but joining us uh for this final segment is Ron Chandler named that to everybody in the fantasy community has known for a long long time. And as we mentioned, I mentioned earlier the show, Ron gave me my first writing gig in fantasy. So it's a real pleasure on uh for having you on here. Thank thanks for joining us. Well, thank you, it's my pleasure. And um, you know, I want to say of a baseball HQ. But I know that you know there's been you know, some changes in recent years. So where are all the places that people can can find your work these days? Well, most of my stuff is at ron Chandler dot com, my website. I also uh write a column every Wednesday at ESPN in the Fantasy page there, and you know catch me on Twitter at ron Chandler. All right, well everybody should do that if you're not doing that already. And Ron took part in the mixed auction yesterday now that this is is this your first year ever in the mix because you migrated from a le right, Yeah, I've been in the AL since two thousand four and before that it was an l a l back and forth. But this was my first year in the Mixed as far as out worse concerned. So was that was that something you wanted to do or your approached or what what change? Yeah? It was it was something I've been thinking about for a while. We were several reasons why I decided to switch over. One just basically to mix things up a little bit, because you know, after you've been doing something for a real long time, you kind of get into a rut and you do kind of find yourself doing the same strategies over and over again, and you know, it's sort of like the definition of insanity and doing the same thing over and expecting a different result, and it just wasn't happening for me. So I figured, uh, mixed was a different experience. UM. I also been doing some new types of strategies that I think would work better in a deeper league, so um I thought that would be a good opportunity to try him out and MIXED. Now you're referring to BABS in particular or my yeah, my mistress BABS for people might not be acquainted. What's the you know, the elevator BABS is it stands for a broad assessment balance sheet and basically it's there's several parts of the strategy. One is that players are are evaluated as a series of assets and liabilities, sort of like a balance sheet UM. And on the assets side, players are grouped into tiers of like skills UM and then we look at their market values within those tiers to to see where the profit is. So an example I often give is that the trade turner, A. J. Pollock, and David Doll are three players who essentially have the same skill set you know, moderate power, some speed, batting, average type of thing, well within the same level. But you know, Turners a lot more expensive than the other two. But if you assume that the variability of statistics around those skills is about the same, then you basically target you know, assumingly healthy David Doll for a lot lesser price and potentially get the same type of numbers that trade turner might put up. Was there anybody on your roster that you put together yesterday that was a target that you might have had. I might just be making a battle sluturity. Assume you have, you know, particular targets that come out of out of the baths and elysis. But was there any in particular that you know may have been influenced by that approach. Oh? Absolutely, there are quite a few players. As a matter of fact, last year, year ago, at this time, I was saying that Nick Castellanos at the same skill set is Evan Longoria, and so you know this year again, you know, Longoria is going for a higher price and Castellanos went for seven. I was able to get him. So very pleased with that. Um, Jose Perazza, you know another player who's who's got basically the same skill set as some of the higher stolen base type guys, and so always able to get him at a discount compared to some of them. Uh, that's good, that's good. Um. And Castellanos you're talking about posibly hitting him second this year. So yeah, seven dollars, that even makes him a better value. Very pleased with that. Yeah, yeah, And he was somebody who was you know, served by my targets. But I just couldn't couldn't pull the trigger went accounted and in in in this same auction, mixed Auction, I went up with um, Howie Kendrick is my third basement, and just in these deep per formats there always seems to be just one. Last year was catcher for me, which is why I asked Laura the question about the two one dollar catchers because I did not want to be stuck in that position again. So this year was third base. It's like whack a mole, just you know, some position that I wanted up waiting much much longer than I want to. Um, Greg, I know we had had a discussion about the end game. We haven't really talked too much about that in this program yet. And since you think Ron be a good person to um, I know you had a specific question about what happened yesterday. Yeah, when we were talking to uh to Jeff earlier, he he brought up the fact that he wished at the end he had saved money a couple of times to be able to go two dollars when it got to because I don't know if you're at the mixed yesterday, but at the end and almost turned into a a snake draft with one dollar bids. So anybody that had an extra dollar, which Ron was one of those people, and he could probably speak to this, um, it's good to have an extra dollar two at the end, so if there's a player that you really wanted, you can go to when everyone else is down to that one dollar. And they all seemed to almost arrive there at the same time. So every time there was a bid, Jeff Ericson would look at to Ron to see if you want them, and he would just give him the head shake no if that wasn't his guy, and was moved on to the next one. So I was that something you planned on or was that just a nice benefit at the end to be able to get a player two of your choice because you had an extra dollar too. Well, I think you have to follow the flow of the draft. I know that I went deep on several players earlier, spent like a hundred dollars right off the bat, on Freddie Freeman, Joey Vado, and John Lester. So when you do something like that, you know that you're gonna have to sit and wait for a while. And the question is how long do you wait? And I think there was an ebb and flow later in the draft where Um, I waited, you know, perhaps maybe a little bit longer than I wouldn't I should have, But I mean the end result was a benefit that I ended up with a few extra dollars more than everyone else, and so I was able to go to when somebody else went on, so as I was. I guess it was more serendipitous than anything else. Now I got a question about you already mentioned Jose Peraza. Um, you got hit for sixteen, you got de Gordon for nineteen. I see them is very similar. And when you talked about Paraz, I can't recall if you lumped him and with with Gordon or not. But um, but I'm also lumping them together in a negative way. In that last year when Gordon came back from the suspension, a lot of weak contact and uh, Paraza you know has not you know, been known to really hit with with a lot of contact, and that combined with some of the inefficiency with the base dealing a pretty low success rate. I have some worries about both of them. Do you think that either one could potentially be of adding averager in this format an ov P liability that might also hurt their their stolen base potential sure, and that's a possibility. But that's that's why you have the flexibility to do things like that. When you have a Joey Vado and Freddie Freeman on your team, who are you hoping for o bps? You know, in access of three seventy even higher. So it gives you some some wiggle room there. So I wasn't too worried about that. That's that's fair enough. Um. We talked a little bit earlier about kind of scanning the uh, the the whole league. So I don't know how we sort of as a group, you know, said yeah, we don't really have the bandwidth right after an auction to take in all the other teams. How much that did you do? And were there any other teams that that stood out to you? You know, they really nailed it. No, I really didn't do it. I haven't even looked at my team yet, So like, who did I end up with? Oh? Yes, oh I have him? Oh good? Uh Well that's that's that's fair enough. So well, we were closing in here on just the final minute or so, so, um, Mike, any any final thoughts on the experience this weekend. Yeah, it was a little disappointing. Not to compete with Roun this year for the first time, and Greg is an observer. Anything unexpected, surprising, No, no, Like I said, the biggest surprise was just how great everybody is down here is just unbelievable. The Calmaradderie and it just you know, it speaks to all the people in this that you know, if you want to get started in this, take the chance. And that's the thing following up on that is that we're such a tight knit community and we essentially see each other once a year, so everybody knows each other, and then that the one time year we're all together like a Emily and it's like, all right, I'll see you in a year from now. But we're also close, and yet we see each other so frequently, so it's it's nice. One of the things also that that's interesting Sam Walker in his book, I think encapsulated in the word also the fact that we write for each other and have always known this listen. This community is is kind of incestuous when you think about it, and but it's but it's a great community. I mean, we're all very tight, so that's a good thing. Well, and on that note, we we have to wind up here so Ron, thank you so much for joining us, very welcome. Also likewise, Mike uh greg As. Allways, thank you for joining us on the Sunday, taking the full two hours of your time and making some draft picks. Very impressed on. So we will be back tomorrow. Actually will be Nando Da Finale with Jim Finch tomorrow at three pm Eastern. They'll see you then, I'll see you Thursday. Take care,
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Fantasy Sports Radio Network. Welcome to fan Rag Fantasy Baseball everybody. This is the special tout Wars edition. We are broadcasting live from Fantasy Sports Radio Studios here in Manhattan, and we've got with us in a steam panel today. Now it's also it's tout War Sunday, but it's also Greg Jewett Sunday. So Greg Jowett is here live with us. Uh he's our normal Sunday guest, and uh, Greg's been taken in all the tout Wars action here. Uh, we have Paul Spore from fan Graphs Morning Paul and uh, Paul took part in the head to head draft which was Friday night, correct, yes, okay, trying to keep all the all the madness straight here. And then we've got Brett Hershey from Baseball HQ and Brent also took part in the mixed auction that I took part in yesterday afternoon, so we're gonna try to cover all the bases. A little bit later on, we'll have Mike pod Hoorser from Fan Graphs who did the a L auction, and then right now we got the n L auction, so we will do our best the next two hours to cover all of it and uh, you know, get you ready for opening day just one week away. Very exciting. So Paul, let's uh, let's start with you, since you were the first one chronologically to uh take part in the top festivity. So first of all, how you how you feel about the team. I'm really excited about the team. It was a situation where to call it a plan would be incorrect. I did not necessarily go in with any sort of plan um you know, yet clowns like Jake Celian there, I know I can roll that full So I'm basically only competing with with eleven or ten others. Uh. Once Jake's put it put out of the way, and so uh, I bought Trout I think first at fifty and then Harper at forty four, and I just decided, why don't I just buy a ton of offense and see where it takes me? To twelve team Mixed League. The pool is deep. We have K nine, so the need for starters is definitely not as rich. I mean, we have to meet we have to meet an innings minimum of nine fifty. But I just wasn't too worried about about pitching and so I ended up spoiging. I ended up getting Vado in Aronado at forty one apiece Trevor's Story at five, and so I had this core of of five offensive players on which I spent quite a bit of money. I still got an archer at twenty three, but then kind of filled out with single digit players from there, and I'm interested to see how it works. You know, no saves, kind of punted saves. Not really too worried about it, but I think the K nine will be there. Um, I have to obviously dominate on offense, but I think I'm going to well. And you have Madson, so I mean he's one of the stually gonna cut him though, because the plan was Madison and Jim Johnson, and before my next round, Jim Johnson got taken. So I was like, if I got too, I can compete some weeks, but there's no reason to get like Madsen's two saves with eight point oh k B nine, So I'm gonna probably put in Joe Kelly, cut him and pick up somebody else. Okay, So I mean there's a lot October and Greg, you and I were just talking about this, like right before we came online. Here, you know, there's a year after year tons of turnover at the closer position. This is this your team in terms of the pitching balance. Reminds me a lot of my mixed auction team last year, and so I was just continuously playing catch up with saves. Never really did catch up, but the opportunities are there because of all the turnovers. So I mean, did you give some thought to keeping Matson and just saying a few you can sort of build around him, or if there's nobody that I'm terribly interested and I can just put him on the bench and see how it goes, right, see if well, the thing of it is, because it's K nine, all the next guys are already taken. Like if I don't have any confidence in jamr Gomez, Hector Narri's is already gone. Heck, I think I'm not even sure Ben Well I might have gotten taken. But um, the problem with with it being K nine is it's a lot tougher to speculate for saves because even the next in lines and the next next in lines are taken. You know, Kyle barclau is probably third in line there, but he's got a fifteen K nine, so of course he goes in this league. So honestly, I might just punt it all together. Being head to head, I don't think I necessarily need saves, and I think I can survive without it. So currently the plan is to completely ignore it, not even waste in season resources on it. But we'll see, we'll see if things change. Okay, Um, yeah, this is Brent hurt. Can't can't you You You can get away with that in the head to head league much easier than you can, of course, in a season long with absolutely this. This league was set up, you know, um for something like this where I think this can work. Punting saves completely, um, and almost punting starters too, because my guys, you know, Michael pined to Francis Galiano, Ian Kennedy, Dylan Bundy, Mike Foltonevitch like I went for some upside strikeout guys you know that I think can have some good seasons. If they're not doing well, they're gone. You know, I'm not gonna let them brutalize my ear a and whip. Um. This was honestly based on the league format. I don't think this is something that's translatable to a lot of other leagues. Uh, even just using k's versus we use K nine versus K's allows for a different strategy. No, I mean I was in the head to head, uh head to league last year, finished second, finished second. Yeah, I mean I didn't do uh, but I was just really I thought your approach, I mean, even even though you said it wasn't a plan or strategy, was really interesting because the high guys you got are high on base guys, which is the you know, which is one of the categories in Vado and uh Eronado and Trent Harper. I mean, uh, yeah, I'm really interested to see that whole scar Stars and Scrubs thing in the head to head where you're just doing week to week. I mean, you just went in as many categories as you can, and you can get away with punt saves or or uh you know, going a little going a little less on some of the starting pitching, and then you know, I got I'm not gonna lie. I got Lucky two with some of my one dollar guys. I throughout Eric Thames at five, and I thought that was kind of the end of me, because I got crickets and I needed that flexibility because I really wanted like Leriano, Kennedy, Bundy and full to episodes are like legitimate targets that I really wanted, and I wanted to have the flexibility to go two or three on a couple of them. And when they cricketed me on on on things, I was like, oh, I'm done for because now I'm dollar days. I ended up getting all four of the guys I wanted. Maybe maybe that's a bad sign, and nobody else wanted those guys at all, so I got them. But um, I did get lucky. You know, Marcello Zuna at a bucket. There were other guys out there that I've been happy with, but I'm super high in Marcello Zuna, so I feel like I absolutely stole him. So, you know, I get a little luck sprinkled in with a plan like this, it can certainly help to a twelve team mixed. I mean, the the one dollar guys uh that you got, I mean are are fine. They're all starters, and some of them have more upside than what you would, uh what you would anticipate with that. And then guys like you know, older guys like even Beltran and Holiday, they're gonna they're gonna help you figure with the v P you know, and and and power with your strong backgrounds with pitching. Did dad help so? Uh yeah, well like Greg's gotta Mike issue. Um so yeah, yeah, I thought about that too. I was gonna say, I think just picking up a sorry Mike issue, my bad folks. Um, I was gonna ask Paul with his strong background and pitching going heavy on the offense. Did you kind of had that even though it wasn't a plan. Was that kind of in your back pocket? No one that in the end game that you could get nine guys and you had people kind of probably pre targeted saying in this format they're good anyways, so I can get value, let's go for it. Absolutely I had. I had tons of guys that could have gone to even if I didn't get those targets that I had. I feel like I know the picture pool as well as anybody that was going to be in that league in twelve team mixed, I feel confident finding the one and two dollar guys that I like that I think can deliver, you know, even double digit value potentially. So so you know, it did become the plan pretty quickly. But I didn't go in saying well, I'm just gonna kind of punt pitching and and and stack up on hitting. You know, I still got an archer. Like I said, I wanted to kind of have one solid guy can RELI plus, you know, do need to get the innings, so I want somebody. I feel it's gonna give me those two hundred. But yeah, in a twelve team mixed, Um, you're gonna get so many guys in that one to two dollar range. I feel like I can pluck out the guys. You know, not a hundred percent success, right, but I feel like this first crew, I'm gonna end up keeping a couple of them and then playing the wire the rest of the season. Pitching is something that I'm always studying, uh, much deeper than the hitting pool. So I definitely felt confident there. Uh what drafts do you have left after this week? There you've done This Wednesday, I'm in the NFBC Main event online picking from the two hole. I'm very excited about that. My first time in NFBC main event. Uh So that's gonna be a lot of fun. I have an nl auction local in Houston. I live in awesome about drive out to hou Houston and then um al only straight draft ten team four by four old school league been around, so you got got quite a bit left. And where I was going with that is, um, you were saying that, you know, the lessons from this draft or this draft, we're not auction, we're not really transferable. But you know, given that, you you sort of surprised yourself with how it unfolded. I mean, is there anything that you think you'll carry over those I think it's so in the NL auction. It's I've been in this league now for a while, um, and it's been a while since I've had some success. I gotta mix it up. So I don't know if I'll do something exactly like this, but I think I could do something again where I can test myself on the picture pool and just load up on offense. It's also O B p UM. I'm gonna I might even keep Bottle already already half him, so I might start with him and then kind of stack around him with some with some stud bats. We have a big, big free agent market this year, a lot of guys coming off a contracts and stuff Strasbourg, Harper, and so I might do something similar to this. Obviously, it would have to be a little bit different, tailored to a standard five by five with ob P minus take out average put an ob P. But uh, I can't go full on with it, but I think I will. I think I will be stacking a lot of offense even in the NFBC main you know, Kersh, I think is per really viable at number two. But I think I'm more inclined to maybe take Goldie, um not not worried about pitching for the first few rounds, and see if I can win in the middle rounds of pitching. So maybe it will be a kind of a general theme or I'm just not taking the pitching. Earlier last year we all took you know, we all kind of got in on those twenty aces or whatever, and you know, I was right there thinking, well, you've got to get at least one of those, maybe two. This year there's like, I think seven bona fide aces and then another group of like fantasy aces, and I don't feel like I need to be in there. I if I'm not, I'm not worried about it. If I can, that's great. If I can get somebody out of what I think is a good price, but I'm not gonna reach. I'm not gonna just reach for Chris Sale or something like that. I'm okay kind of starting a rotation with like UM with Archer for example, you know, I got no problem starting starting rotations with him. So I will probably play more in the middle pool of pitching. Uh So maybe that will be the kind of unifying theme of the rest of my drafts. Is that a twelve or fifteen that one um, the main events fifteen team mixed, the NL only is eleven team and the only and then the als at straight draft. That's that's completely different. That's four by four. Um, that's really I mean, my two keepers are trouting beds. So well, I'm about to wrap up a draft the champions for tout and I kind of followed what you were saying. I got some bats early and I was lucky enough. Archer fell to the fourth and this draft started last week and the Ground fell to the sixth. So those are my two. I got great value on the ground, while I was ecstatic when he fell back to me. Um picking from the eight spot. So I kind of and in line with you on that. You know, I don't want to get A necessarily blocked myself into and say I gotta have a picture in the second round. You know, let value fall. I'd love to get a Thor. You know, bum Garners as reliable as they come. Um, but I like go out of those second round bats too. That's the thing is that it's not that I'm really against those pictures. I don't necessarily you know, Thor is always worried some when somebody throws ninety seven hundred times a game with their elbow. But I'm not. I'm not down on the guys. I'm just much higher on those bats in the in the second and third round. So do you feel like you you need to I mean in the way your serf already answer the question, but you know, compensate or do you feel like that it does put you to cop it's disadvantage that you have to work against by going with one out of those you know, twenty or so starters that you've used fantasy aces. Because I really try to get to I feel like yeah, and I think I think either strategy is perfectly viable. It's just a situation where if I have done draft mock and in one real one where I did dip into the pitching pool early. I started with Kershaw and then I ended up backing him up with Klueber, and that's great, But then I wasn't able to take a lot of my favorite mid round guys, you know, Paxston, Gossman, Jameson, tye On and Sanchez. I just didn't. I had to get the hitting, and so I want to take those I want to take those mid round pictures. So maybe it's just a preference thing. It's not even necessarily something that I think is automatically better, because I think that team is going to be pretty good with with those two starting it off at the rotation. So again, it's it's not any sort of negativity about the top tiers. It's just that I love the middle tiers. I think they're I think they're deep. Like you take like somebody picture thirty five and you look at somebody who's picture fifty five. I don't think there's much difference, And it seems you think twenty ranks, that's so different, and then you really look at it and you know, like is it really that different? You know, would it be crazy if Ivan nova Um matched or outperformed Kevin Gossmand I don't think so everyone's super high on Gossmand I'm I'm with them, but I'm pretty high on Nova to going into Pittsburgh. You know, you look at that walk crade he put up last year. I think a lot of that was confidence where he just felt he could pound the zone because he was gonna beat get beat up by Homers. Now he's not gonna have a two percent walk right the entire year, but I think he's gonna be a heck of a lot better. And so I just think these picture tears run so deep once you get to about picture thirty that I just I would rather get those more reliable bats. Yeah. No, and I hear that. Like I said, I would like to secure two I say, top sixteen or seventeen rather than twenty um. But once it's beyond that, then yeah, I feel like you can wait, you know, or like you did in this auction, and you can go cheap. I mean, you have two pictures that were more than one dollar and uh, I mean would you consider these guys like Kennedy, Loriano, Bundy, Faulty, Uh part of that that middle tier. Yeah, that's the thing. Like Leriana, people are sleeping on him I think getting back with Russell Martin is really big. I know, going to Toronto. You know, we just I just talked about how great Pittsburgh is gonna be for something like Nova, So leaving Pittsburgh's never awesome. But I think getting back with Russell Martin, you look at what he did at the end of last year. I think Loriana is gonna be pretty solid. Ian Kennedy they're boring though, too. Kennedy and Loriano specifically Bundy and Faultier a little bit more of the flash and and they've got something to prove. But I think the guys like Kennedy, they just get so underrated. People don't want to, you know, because no one's gonna go. And when you take that pick, but it's like a hundred eighty guaranteed innings with like a hundred eighty strikeouts, e r A. We'll see where it is. It could be in the upper threes, little fours maybe if it if it starts going awry and gives up too many homers, you can move on though too. That's the beauty of those guys. Whereas if you take somebody who might do something similar again, like Gossman, who has home run issues. You don't want to cut him. You're like, I can't cut him because I drafted him as pitcher off the board. I take Kennedy as the eighty pitcher off the board. I don't know that there's a ton of difference between those two. Maybe in the overall upside, but upside is just a fake ideal, right, Yeah, I mean they have to come through on the upside for it to matter. So yeah, I just like I said, these tears get huge once you get to about picture thirty five. That's why I got no problem playing in that. Absolutely agree with that. Well, we gotta go to break, but we'll come back. We'll take a look at yesterday's mixed league auction and uh a whole lot more. So stick around. We'll be right back. Welcome back to fan Rag Fantasy Baseball how Wars. Addition, I'm your host, Al Melfior, and I'm joined today by fellow fan Rag author. That sounds that's right, right, Greg Jewett. Great Jewett's here, Uh and we've got Paul smore from Fangraph's last segment. Paul talked to us about his head to head team that he UH put together on Friday night and we also get bred Kirshey, who was involved in the mixed auction yesterday as was I. Um just a quick programming note, So we are on longer today than usual. We're on normally this is twelve the one Eastern. Were on two whole hours until two o'clock and then we'll be back on the regular schedule Monday. But we will have a guest host, Nando Dafino with Jim Jim Rinch Jim Finch from Fan RAG. Easy for me to say, and well we'll be on the regular schedule from that point going forward. So, uh, you know, Paul, you made these waves definitely in that head to head draft, That's what everybody was talking about. I'm not sure there's a consensus uh you know splash that was made yesterday. But for me, I think Fred Zincky's got the team to beat here in the mixed auction, Uh Josh Donaldson of forty to Nolan Ardo or not a forty, Chris Bryan and forty five, and he even drafted some people who weren't third baseman, um, Bryce Harper, Matt bum Darvish. So sort of like Paul, I was gonna say, kind of Paul's four plan. I guess thinking, geez, Zinkie, come up now A kidding, But yeah, I mean look at that four guys forty plus um to two stud pictures again, because it's different where k's are gonna matter uh in the aggregate as opposed to K nine. He did still have to get starters. He punted saves. Here's the Here's the thing though, too. If you like Zinkie's team coming out of a draft, that league is in trouble because he's also the greatest trader in the world. So any issues that the team runs into, he's gonna be able to fix them. This guy's just a brilliant trader. He's always you know, he's that guy who knows how to help you, and you know he doesn't rip people off. I want to say brilliantrade. I don't mean he goes and just smokes people, but he knows how to say, hey, you could use this, I got something for you, GI me something back, and he just tried, so I think he'll he'll figure it out. Yeah, yes, so, Greg, I mean I know you you watched this closely yesterday. You've concur or you think there's a multiple contenders here. What struck you. Um No, I like the way he started aggressive and and almost kind of made people really pay attention to third base. You know, he was closing that market fast. Um. I mean third base a little deeper this year. Um. One of my guys I love, Justin Turner. He went for a pretty good price, I thought in that auction. Um. But it was interesting to watch and just to see how the how everyone in the room was reacting. And then you know, during one of the brace, I was lucky enough to talk to Derek van Riper and he was telling me I need to go get some steals and then he came right back and got Kean Brox. And so it's not just that you were watching it in person, you're also seeing how people were going to start altering their roster to fill the speckle in and make sure they got everything covered. Yeah. Yeah, well, um, Derek, you know at one point he said, you know, he said, everybody could hear you know, can you win this league without ters? I think had a single one fairly deep in the league. And then you know, bam, bam bammy. You know, loaded up I think with three or four pretty good ones and uh, in fact, let me take a quick look here. I got Kyle Seger at twenty. I think that was one of his first ones. Uh. Nelson Crews also, I recall that can know so I mean he actually wound up routing at the door, wound up building a pretty nice core, and he got a nice price on Greg Burr for seven dollars. I thought, yeah, he he went for fifteen at the NFBC one. I was watching with Nando one for Carl Yeah, so front any observations, so you took parts of you could do your own team or yeah. I mean the thing that I realized early on, I mean I was a rookie to a lot of these a lot of you all have been doing this for doing this league for a long time. Is uh just the speed of the of the draft took a little bit for mein he get used to. There was a couple of times where I purchased somebody uh uh and right off on the next you know, the next nomination with someone I was interested in, you know, trying to sort of keep organized. It was a little bit of a little bit of a challenge, but I I came adapted to it, and and uh, I felt pretty decent about my team. I. Uh, the one thing I got, I got Cabrera an inconconn right off the bat, and uh at that point for thirty six and thirty five. And while I like those prices, uh, soon after that I was kind of kind of doubting myself whether I wanted to uh, you know, having those two big corner guys right off and not uh you know how it's gonna work in team construction, and overall was happy with how it played out. Then, well, I'm glad that you you raised to raise the point of you know, the fast pace of it are auctioneers. Jeff Ferrikson, he keeps it going, keeps going for it, and UM, yeah, I'm so glad you said that because one of the things I thought about in the aftermath, you know, because you know, we're all creating content here, you know, we're we're taking lessons to help others and you know, and also improve our own game. And the one thing that really st me really the first thing afterwards, was the kind of the mental games that I think I don't pay enough attention to. Um, and you know, so part of that is just the kind of the grind of a of a four hour auction and that you are going to make mistakes. Um, you know I made at least one that you know that I regretted almost immediately, and that was getting David Price at eleven when ron Chandler threw him out there for ten and yeah that he keep going, Yeah, you're just trying to move it along. No, no, well, I mean it wasn't. I thought it would move along, but it was just more this you know, kind of very quick thought in my mind, like that that's a bargain. Yeah, you know, he's worth because if he misses, you know, half the season, um, but then you know, but when he lands on your roster exactly what it was real I thought, oh, you know, I think I misjudged this market, and I think that you know, it was relatively early on, so there were opportunities to spend that eleven dollars in a lot of different ways that could have helped me, I think at least as much in certain minimize the risk. But so probably not thrilled with Stephen Matt's getting his next skipped with Well, we talked about that as soon as we got here this morning. That was one that he's like, I can't believe Matts because he saw me tweeted out earlier. I mean, I love him, but that you know, that puts the fear of God right back into me with with with Steven Matt's um but I mean eleven, I like both at eleven price. Well, we'll see how it goes, right, It's always tough in the moment of of March of like are we taking this too seriously or not seriously enough? Because every year there's gonna be some I don't know which injuries they are, but there's some of these injury scares that we're gonna look back on in May, just just in a month and a half and laugh and be like, remember when when we were like so worried about so and so or vice versa. We're gonna be like, we did not pay that enough. I mind. Now this dude's out. So which one is is price gonna be? I know right now we're all leaning toward it's gonna be a bad one. But that could end up being like the steel and it carries you and you don't even worry about matts because you got a thirty dollar price value wise for eleven bucks. So I mean I totally understand you though, where you're like oh, I'm just gonna keep this moving out of leven And then you're like, wait, wait, why did they stop? That wasn't supposed to happen. What are they doing out here? That's a great but that's a great point about the injuries this time of year is trying to discern where they're gonna where they're gonna fall. Part of the information age downside is that we get every single bit and we don't know how to process it perfectly because we just they're just saying, oh, you know, he's got a bulky el but he's gonna miss the start. Do we freak out move them down around? Or is that just kind of the normal thing anytime we hear somebody as a UCL sprain, we completely freak out. Hundreds of guys are out there pitching with UCL sprains, part partial, We don't know what partial it is. Are they had four? Are they had where they at? So? Uh yeah, deciphering and just you know, figuring out what the best way to react to injury news is still kind of an untapped you know, a market inefficiency absolutely, and that kind of gets back to what you know, I was piggybacking off breat with is you know, the speed that you have to think about this. So I think about you know, you asked me what was my thought process with David Price, and it's kind of like this thing from a movie where it's like, in your mind it's in snowmotion dollars, you know, but but you know, really it's happening very fast, and it's you know, and I'm and I'm recalling it and thinking, Okay, number one, that seems like a bargain. Number two. It's early. I know he's risky, but I'm gonna go and I'm gonna build a solid rotation behind him. Well you know, part of that rotation now is Stephen Matt So you know it's uh, you know that that's a good thing for me to kind of notice about my own thought processes. Okay, early in the draft, you know, it's kind of like having a credit card. You think, you know, oh, well, I'm gonna pay this back limit. I can go get whatever I want right now, you know. So there's this sort of mental bias there. And another place that came up was much later on. I got Caesar Hernandez for five dollars and I was very happy about that because Greg just gave you thumbs up because I needed O p P. I needed steals pretty desperately, sneaking. I believe in the babbit for Caesar Cans and um, you know, so he was like one of the few players that I thought could could actually help me in both areas. And but there was again sort of a mental bias. They're like, oh, Caesar, her her name is, I've never seen him pursued in an auction before. Am I going to be crazy? And this was like the fifth or sixth person where I had that thought and I stopped too short with the other players. So this time I did go the extra dollar and I got him. But um, I think I worried too much about what other people think. To be honest, I've been there. I think we've all been there. You know, you had a guy that you got a star by and you think that he's worth eight and he's only at four and you don't say five, and you're like, why didn't I? Why didn't I do that? Why not? I trust the outputs that I have here. And obviously, you know, none of our dollar values are perfect. But if you if you've got somebody double what they're at, you gotta go the extra dollar. I like that. I honestly, I like the rotation that you put together. Got shure as you're leading it. By the way, are you gonna get him to turn to a left hander because everybody else is left handed? That was about strategy. Price guy, go mad Smiley and Warno Rodriguez. I like it. I think it's a solid mix of of your risk and upside because, um, you know, even smiling at five dollars, he could be a twenty dollar pitcher if you can find a modicum of health. Um, I think that that guy is awesome. Edward Rodriguez. The knee seems to be good right now, and that's that's a huge dollar. Guy. How do you feel about Kaiko fifteen bucks? I don't think you overpaid. I think last year the league adjusted, but they didn't adjust to a four fifty. A lot of that was his health. So you feel confident about the shoulder. I feel very confident about him. He's pitched well the springing Again, I hate to put too much stock into that, but it's yeah, well yes, but also with a health guy, I do think it matters whether the results are good or not. But like the strikeouts and walks, his velocity has stuff. We're getting good reports on Kaiko, So I understand why why you're feeling that way about him with regards to the shoulder. Obviously, sure it is your stud I think you got the makings of a good crew here. And then Felice column A as your closers, and Caps as somebody who can maybe take that job from Brandon Mauer. And you have three closers. There is in a situation where you and you'll you'll want to turn some of these guys. Are you gonna give you Gus like a leash, like keep him around for a month, month and a half, or is it somebody that you would burn quickly? Well if he didn't go well, because for me, he was, you know, sort of a sleeper coming in. Um, you know, a guy that I liked. I'll probably give him a leash unless it goes really badly about I can't see giving him less than a month, to be honest, because guy came in believing in him. It's not somebody that I literally took a fly on and thought, well, you know, it's not some membably that interested in but but maybe there's something there. I'll bell him a little bit more of a leash than that. Um, so we've got to go back to break again. But I think we got a little bit more talk about here with the mixed auctions, So stick around. We'll be right back. Welcome back to fan Rag Fantasy Baseball. I'm your host, Alan Melk here, and we're having a special tout Wars edition today. We're on for two hours. We're until two p on the Eastern today and so a bigger show. We've got a bigger group. We've Greg Jewett, our usual Sunday guest from fan Rack, but also we've got from Baseball HQ, got Brin Hershey and from fan Graphs, and I have to because I mix up the fan Graphs and traction, but we have pause for it from fan Graphs. So welcome all. Um. If you've been listening, then you know we've been breaking down the Mixed League auction from yesterday. Uh, we've got the n L going all right now we're gonna come back to the Mixed League. And Greg, I know you had some players you wanted to talk about, but I just I want to kind of do an instant response to something here from Twitter. Uh At Jones, Curtis W. Tweeted at raz Ball, Trey Turner went for only two dollars more than Stanton. That's not the way NFBC drafts have been going. Love that start. Now I'm going to confirm. I'm assuming he's talking about the n L where Turner went for thirty and stant Yeah, stan one for both, Okay both to razz Ball about us de Gray Albright and isn't it less than what Turner went for Yester ex years with thirty four in the mixed? Yeah? So where you got? Because I think Turner is about as polarizing a player as there is the spring. I'm definitely a downer on him. I feel like, like, uh, the expectations have gotten a little overheated. But how Greg, how do you you feel about that comparison between Turner and Stanton? Um? I don't know, because you can't say anybody is you know, injury prone because he's had some freak injuries with Stanton. So I mean both of those, both of those numbers and an L I think represent upside quite frankly, as long as you know Stanton is healthy, that's a good price on him, especially with the opp format um Turner. I think everyone is polarizing. I know, I know Paul has has some stock and Turners, so he can probably speak to a two. I mean, if if he hits thirteen home runs and steals thirty five bags, then where he's going is probably reasonable. It's just where you sit on the fence with those with those totals. I think with training turn or so like there's a first round tax, right Actually, Jeff Zimmerman and I we're talking about this with regards to Carlos Correa last year. I think most of the projection systems probably had him in like the second round when you really kind of stack up where they were, But you're paying that tax because he could go crazy. He could go bananas and be a bona fide first round or now that's probably not You can lose a lot that way by by paying attacks for guys based on potential. But I think that's kind of where Turner is this year. I don't think he needs to advance the power to be worth a first round pick or very cloclose too. I am kind of looking at the counting stats of Starring Marte last year nine homers, forty seven stolen bases um Now the seventy one runs and forty six ribbies. That's because he played a D twenty nine games. If Turner goes ninety seven and then plays a full season atop the Washington lineup and does a D plus on eight plus runs, and I think it'd be even be ninety plus runs to be honest, and then whatever, fifty I don't really care about his RBIs for uh, that kind of guy. We're not We're not focused on the RBIs. So give fifty to sixty and a two eight average. I don't really have a problem with that. At the back end of the first round, I think you also have to factor in that he's gonna be second base, outfield and short stuff. That kind of flexibility in most leagues is so crucial. You're talking about a fifteen team mix. You know he's going. He's going early in the NFBC, there's no trading. You want to have flexibility so that you can get any potential free agent available. So I think you add a couple of bucks of theoretical value or or a few picks in a draft two Turner because of that flexibility. So if you're if you're looking at like I said, Marte plus the vibe, the flexibility. I've got him in the first round. Now, Jason Collette, my my co manager in labor, is even higher on him. So we took him at ten. Bryce Harper was our target. He went at nine. We took him at ten. I personally probably wouldn't have done that if I'm going solo, but I liked him enough that I could concede there because it was like a five pick difference, So I'm like, there's nobody I was gonna bat for. I wish i'd have seen Carlos Korea before that that draft, like because in the WBC, not because of the way he hit, but the way he looked physically, he looks a lot more cut. I think the power is really gonna take a step for car Curs right, And I probably would have lobbied for him. We took him first last year, so I don't know if you would want to go back to that. Well, but I wouldn't have cared. But yeah, I totally get the Turner in the first round. I understand the trepidation for some, but stolen bases is kind of the easiest way to really spike your value, so I think he can kind of earn a lot of those dollars back well, because you made the comparison between UM Korea CIRCA in Turner. Now, UM, Brent, what what occurred to me when when Paul and Paul makes a good case for Turner, UM, but the landscape is so different now that it was a year goo. It's hard to believe that a year ago I was so big and too big on on Korea. But the thought was, not only does he have that incredible ceiling, but it's it's in a pool that looks pretty unimpressive on the whole. And of course we had so many short stops take a huge step forward in Do you that that that uh is a factor to dampen Turner's value or that he even with that improved pool, that he still stands out. I'm with you. I'm a little bit, you know, more wary of of Turner just just because of the sort of when I take a guy in the first round or spend thirty plus dollars on I want more certainty than that at this point, Um, and the Korea example to me is just is the is the easiest one you know to to make a year ago? Uh? You know Karrea was the Turner that we were all excited about. I mean, Paul's point about about stolen bases though as opposed to Crea being a more power guy. I think is is valid though, Uh too because the because the stolen base is given the landscape and uh and the decline and stolen basis uh. And his you know, the speed that doesn't slump really Uh, he has a better I guess, you know, a slightly better chance us and Krant did last year of kind of returning that. But it's a it's a fascinating you know, it's a it's a fascinating thing to look at. Yeah, I agree, and continue to be polarizing. It just sort of like last year Trout versus Harper and that was actually that got kind of resolved earlier than I think maybe we expected. But uh, speaking of resolving, so Greg, you had a shortlist of some players there that you you found the prices to be pretty intriguing. Yeah. Um to to injury guys. Um. And this is the mixed options. So this is Brent and l. J. D. Martini is at six dollars and Ian Desmond at nine. Which which of those two would you prefer to have? Oh, I'll say J D. M. I think they're both incredible values. And I think going back to Paul's point from earlier, that there's certain players will look back a month from now and say, why were we so panicked? And I think that that could very easily be Desmond, more so because the Listbrank injury really does worry me for Martinez, but I just think his ceiling is so so tremendously after last year he proved the plate discipline pretty substantially, has great power. I still think it's a very good lineup that the Tigers have, so um, you know, for six dollars, it's a risk that's hard to see not taking. Yeah, and we let Zinkie get him right after all other STI I mean out there, Yeah, you gotta stop Zinkie. Yeah, it's too good now, I mean I agree. Those are those are again to two of the things that Paul was talking about. You know, those injuries that happen here quick and we have to make a decision on how serious they're going to be throughout the throughout the year or if it's just a you know, looking back in May and like, why are we worried about that? I? Um, I don't, I don't know. They go. I mean they could go either way on like which one I feel is A is the better value I would I would probably lean towards Martinez to um because of the because of the power, and um, you know, the uncertainty of the O B P because the Snowby p leag for for Desmond, uh not you know, not not being as patient there and and uh you know, definitely give you the counting stats, but um, but you know, downgrading a bit just because of the and with a hand, you just don't know how it's gonna affect him when he comes back, rightw how effective is he and Desmond going to be immediately upon return? Now, I think coers Field covers some of that. You can. Maybe he collects a lot of base hits made and them a lot of power. It could be kind of more of an empty batting average with some good runs. Maybe he steals some bases too, But then you know, if the hand is worries some is he gonna steal basis because he doesn't want to head for slides and like reinjure something. So they are both nerve wracking. But I think J. D. Martinez at six bucks, I mean, he can miss a month and you know, a month and a half even, And I think six bucks is too low because I just don't I don't think he's gonna fall apart. So I would obviously honestly have taken either. I would put both on the on the roster at fifteen bucks total. But I think Martinez is the better one. It they're an equal cost. It's it's a different discussion, but with Jane being three hours less, I think he's the better buy. Yeah, none, and you know, you both made I think points that are worth you know, thinking about, you know, for those of you who may have up coming drafts that yeah, you know, I made a point about the LIZT Frank injury for Martinez, but the hand injury could be just as troublesome. And yeah, if you're in an ob P league, you know, or a points league than Ian Desmond, definitely I think deserves an additional discount there as well. Um. Another thing about Desmond too that just came to mind that before the injury and when he signed with Rockies, Uh, some people are making Herodo Para comparisons with him, and initially I really dismissed because well, this is not Herodo Parer. This is Desmond and he's you know, much more proven power source, but they're bad at bult profiles are much more similar than I really realized. Um So I think Paul was you that said, uh that the core is effect you know, may cover for some of them the injury risk. But to what degree do you guys think that's true? I mean, it depends on the injury, you know. Speaking of part he was a nightmare in Cours last year, and you know, you can't just walk in there and and and do anything, right. I think he kind of he kind of showed that in three point appearances last year he had a six seventy one ops. Now they weren't all in course, but the fact is that it did not really lift Harada Para. He was playing through injuries, only playing a hundred two games, so you don't really know. But that also goes to the point of well, if he and Desmon's playing through injuries and he is still dealing with the nagging hand, he isn't necessarily guaranteed. But generally speaking, I I love, of course. I think even as focused on as it is, it's still an underrated aspect of fantasy. I don't think we account for it nearly enough. Um again, it doesn't raise anybody. You can't just take the worst hitters throw them in there. And he's a three hitter. But I think a lot of guys don't get enough. Well, like the Trevors story, I have no problem taking him in the second round. Yes, the thirty percent strikeout rate is worrisome. It is a lot of that is of her, by course, a lot of it. And we we saw we saw the power last year. I think he could run for twenty if he plays a full season. So I love someone like Trevor's story. I just any deficiency a player has if he plays in course, it's got to be minimized, not ignored, but minimized by that park. It's just so good. Plus, don't forget what nine ten games in Arizona as well if you're in if you're a Colorado Rocky, so you get another ten games that are juiced up by playing in Arizona, which is not quite the same level. But that's also a great park that I'm not sure we give enough love to. Yeah, I mean that's a great way of looking at it. I mean I've I've thought about it in that way too. Of just you know, being uh, like you said, minimizing the risk, and and it has to be has to be someone who can hit already obviously, like you said, can't just throw anybody out there. Um. But but it's certainly the fact that we need to uh take care of, you know, take into account. Uh. Yeah, I think, uh that's you know, good point. And yeah, we we focus on on course. But I mean, it wasn't even the best home run park in the Major years last year. I think that was Yankee Steve Um And I'm trying to think Miller Park. I think there may have been another park in the n L A head of I would believe in Miller Park. Insane or people keep under there. There's a lot of value in the in the Brewers. Yeah. On offense. Yeah, they're very good fantasy team this year with their offense. I agree with you. Let's talk about that we come back. We gotta go to break but I like that topic. So, uh, folks, stick with us. We'renn talking about the Brewers when we come back. Welcome back to fan Rag Fantasy Baseball. I'm your host, Alan Melchior, and uh, we've got a bigger crew here today. But it's a bigger show two hours and we're talking tout wars, the A L D n L mixed auction, mixed draft or head to head draft. Rather. We have Greg Jewett here from fan Rag. We also have Paul Spore from fan Graphs, and we had Brent Hershey before but uh, Brent is he's heading back home. So and we are now joined by Jeff Zimmerman and Jeff writes for fan Graphs. But as we were talking earlier today, here we can find you all over the place. So where else else can we find you? Yeah, besides I'm Rhodographs, I will also be at Rhoda Wire and then also doing some stuff for Baseball HQ. That's pretty much my limit right now. That's I think that's enough. Yeah, That's that's where I stand to It's it gets tough to go on and it's also tough to turn down. Work is kind of another thing too, where it's like you still want to view quality and not send too much stuff over to Paul to edit all the time. Well, Um, I've been a big I'm a big fan of all you guys, so I'm really glad to have you joined me here today. Um, and Jeff, you are in the mixed auction yesterday. We're gonna get to that in a second. But I did promise some Brewer talk. I got a little excited about it, so I feel like I gotta follow through on that. But uh, yeah, I think it's not just me. Uh there's a number of players that I think are are drawing some excitement and auctions. Um so from you know, from this weekend so far, or maybe even just from your own drafts and auctions. Um, you know who on the Brewers. Do you think maybe he still has some some on topped value. I mean, I really like the team Kian Broxon's obviously getting a lot of love. Power speed guy. I think he might even still be a little bit undervalued. I understand that the strikeout rate is a problem, right, but he absolutely blasts the ball when he does make contacts. So I think it's a situation where if he can just get sub thirty, right, don't be don't be a thirty five percent strikeout, right guy, you can be eight and that would work for me. But going deeper kind of like off the radar because everyone's you know, VR is going early. Broxon's the hype guy. Uh Braun, We we know about Eric Thames, people you know are hyped on him. I think two other guys, Domino Santana and Travis Shaw, are really interesting, and I think their interest lies in the fact that we know they're good power guys. Right we we've seen, we've seen the power they're on that team that's going to run a ton and then I don't think that either of them is gonna like necessarily steal twenty but if but Travis Shaw specifically, you never think of him as a runout, but he's like a smart runner. He knows what he's doing. I think he could get like twelve just twelve stone bases kind of randomly with twenty five homers perhaps in that ballpark. Uh, that could be really huge. At the third base, Domingo Santana get a power guy that we like, uh to break out a lot of folks like him as an outfield and breakout mid teens sort of stolen base potentially he's shown it before. He's he's really uh, you know, because the figure of a power guy, but he can he has speed too, and so I think with this team, the way they run, you don't want to forget about that. The guys that you might not expect even Eric Thames, who had that season over in Korea. Obviously he's not gonna come anywhere near. But if he's twenty five and twelve, I guess those are numbers. I'm leaning on twelve. But that's like a really good power speed combo. If you're getting thirty seven homers plus stolen bases combined out of these mid round picks, that's a boon. So I really like this team. I think they're going to continue to run wild too. Yeah. Greg, you did a nice analysis on Thames earlier in the off season. Um, I'm trying to remember where you came down on the staff. I think you were pretty close to numbers, very very close to falls with my projection. And then the Steamer actually came out after the article that was more aggressive, and I was like, Steiner was more aggressive than this thing. Is that projection systems love him all there there? Yeah, it's and especially you know in this format, And and I love the price you got Domingo yesterday, right dollar? Yeah, Domingo at a dollar and that O b P I think even bumps him up more because I think he has some latent o BP to him. And if he does get those pocket steels like Paul was talking about, Um, he's somebody that's going really really late in drafts that can really be a roster booster. Yeah. No, I think uh Santana was probably my favorite dollar guy from yesterday, so I feel good about that. So well, Jeff, you can participated in the auction mixed league auction yesterday. You did not get a single Brewer. Were you to come out of you? I was actually trying for VR. He was kind of a target and there was heavy bidding across auction. Probably already talked about that. There was a lot very top heavy, and like I said, I was that was the one I was kind of hoping for getting the home runs and trying to get some skills. It's I think you can find home runs. Used to go to find steels, but now with kind of the power, there seems to be a lot of fifteen that comes out of nowhere. Galvi's hitting twenty that's crazy. Home runs is absolutely insane, Like I mean, with no one even I'm sure he didn't even go to yesterday, but it was like there's twenty home run guys that just like popped up last year and it used to be that way with steel, so I was like, I was trying to lock in some steels, which I had to end up doing. But yeah, he was probably the one Brewer that I was kind of targeting and hoping to get because you'd have the home runs with it too, and you get some like it's not a zero with it, and he's hitting at the top the line up, he gets on base, he gives you other stuff. He's not Billy Hamilton's. I kind of wanted the other stats besides the home runs. It's trying to get it spread out a little bit. I agree with you on that. I don't. I don't really like the speed. Only guys like Billy Hamilton's like that. For some reason. I think you have to alter your draft or auction from that point if you take one of them. But VR, even if his homewer's fallback, I think he had nineteen last year, I think you cut off like seven of those, and I'm still gonna feel pretty happy about twelve fifty stolen bases because the O b P and this is ob P leaks. That really helps him because people are worried about his batting average a little bit too, because he can strike out sometimes, but I thought at thirty two bucks, Joe Pespia got a little bit of a steel. It's hard to say steel when you're talking about guys over thirty dollars, but in that realm, I think in an ob P league, Jonathan br for thirty two is a really nice school. Those those steels are They're so cool. The steels are a steel absolutely. All right, Well, le's let's talk about who you did get, Jeff, so walk us through to the next the nice balanced roster um. I like it a lot, But uh, did you have a particular strategy of mind in terms of, you know, picture hit or split category split, or just looking for value in general. I'm generally a value guy, and I'd actually looked historically at this and Kershaw I think he had a max of thirty six dollars and Trout had never never gone over forty eight, and I was willing to go to those value use which went way past. I was like, I'll go to the historic values and and see if anyone's willing to go aboff, which everyone did yesterday. So I kind of just went to the value mode. After that, I kind of had an idea I was gonna get Chris Davis. He had a risk injury last year. He played through it the whole year. It just really sapped his power. So I literally just went back to his two thousand and sixteen projection and use that. And you're talking about christ of the Seat, right, Yeah. No, I was mad at you because he was one of my targets too, and I thought, uh, he would be underappreciated and you fully appreciate him. So that ruined my plot to to get him. Um. But you know, you made a statement he said that the risk injury sapped his power, and I would argue that actually didn't because the hard contact rate was was right where it's been. I don't recall the home run to fly ball rashop, but the power indicators were I think roughly in the neighborhood they were in. But he lost doubles power. Um. And I'm not sure if we attribute that to the wrist or you know, I don't. Yeah, I didn't know where to attribute it to. But it was just like looking across the board that I don't remember when I wrote it up, but I like literally looked at it, like here's the projection I'm going to use, and I just was like I kind of handed it, like, oh, give him this much more, and it just really looked like it's two projection coming into two thousand six teams. So I was like, I'll just use that, and I'm just like I'll just run with that. And that's kind of where he was last year was around that. Everyone had him a lot higher last year than this year, and I was just like, well, I'll just put him back and hope he's healthy. And it's like you need some kind of breakouts, and I kind of went with the old man breakouts with some of my players, and it was like I was kind of big on Stanton. Um. I just for ran an article a Baseball HQ and really there's no such thing as injury plane hitters, so it's um. Greg was saying that earlier, so hopecially with Stanton and his freak injuries. Yeah. Yeah, and he Casty sort of had a leg. It was like a bloin or something. That was it. Otherwise all this stuff was like being hit and stuff like that. So just looking at those historically players, they don't continue to get here like two O still's got it and he's been healthy for years. Nelson Cruise took him years to get rid of it. Remember when Ev Longoria early on was known as like an injury prone guy. Now in his thirties, he's hundred fifty five games a year, all of a sudden, It is crazy. Sometimes Ian Kindler at the early part of his career he had some injuries, and it's like this guy is just never gonna you know, had that one season, But what's he gonna do Now He's as steady as it gets. So it is a situation where, um, these guys get the tag of injury prone and then they get healthier later in their career because it's not really something where some guys have bad bodies, right, but they're the outliers. Rockleball Delly had a bad but it was just not cut out to be a professional athlete, and that does happen, But those are the outliers. We call a lot of guys injury prone who are not injury prone, as Jeff Study suggests, Yeah, and the the other one you can look at us like, yeah, the David writes one where it's like if this is a yeah, because it's a degenerative batrick, right, But otherwise I'm the best way to actually to kind of get these injury prone guys. Just look at him in drafts. Is you see Stanton, You'll see him against the guy projected six hunder played appearances and he's at five. Take him because he has a chance to be an upside to get to the six hundred. If they have the same projection, they're valued the same. That's your upside is the standing time the Harper's. Those are the guys that have upside right now because everyone's discounting their plainisance. Well, Jeff, we gotta wrap up the hour here, so thank you so much for sharing, uh the segment with us, and you're talking about your team. We will be back at the top of the hour, and uh stay two. We've got a lot more to work and breakdown. Let you see that you're listening to the Fantasy Sports Radio Network. The stage is set, the destination New York City, the field of Battle Rock and Riley's Pub. The grand prize Fantasy Baseball glory. The Fantasy Sports Radio Networks coverage of Tout Wars continues. Now. Welcome back to fan Rag Fantasy Baseball and you've probably gathered we're here at tout Wars Special Tout Wars addition, I'm your host al In Melchior and joined joining me today as usual on Sunday is Greg Jewett from from fan rag and from fan Graphs keeping it straight. There got Paul Spoor here for at least part of the second hour of the show and joining us. And what was the Jeff Zimmerman seat is Mike Podhors are also from fan Graphs, So welcome Mike. Too much fan Graphs going on, we need to mix it up. No, not enough, not enough, Greg, we need to sign you on fan Graphs at all. A fan graps. We're all just That's that's what it comes down to. So all right, we've we've broken down the head to head uh uh draft. We are not the draft from storry of the auction, the mixed auction. We've done a little bit of analysis on the NL auction. So it's time for ail auction. Time time for some a l action. So you took part in that, and uh, you drafted every Yankee. I bought every game essentially, and I'm not even a Yankee fan. That's kind of the interesting part. So um, of course you started with Trout. It looks like you you went a little bit heavier in offense than than pitching. I want to talk about your pitching first, Uh, Felix, Hernandez, David Price, Matt Shoemaker, are your are your double digit guys, Craig Kimbroll, even Craig kimber some people are seeing as a little bit of a risk. I'm not sure that he's necessarily risky. But let's talk about Felix and Price. Are the ones that are gonna get attention. Felix at sixteen, Price at thirteen. Talk first about Felix, Um, you see what kind of bounce back are you seeing here? Obviously at sixteen you see something coming back, and then we'll get to Price with the injury. Yeah. I came into the season kind of down on Felix. His velocity was down last year. It's been in decline basically every year for the past couple of years. He had some control issues, you know, there's been a little talk of elbow problems the last couple of years, and so he's a guy I was kind of nervous about. However, in spring, his velocity is up. It looks like he's throwing two now, and I think that's a big deal. So whatever is the cause for that, velocity rebounds. Um, I'm not sure, but it makes me a little more encouraged about his prospects for actually rebounding. And I don't expect the felix of old, but if we can get a low three ear A rather than a mid to high three ear at, he's gonna easily be a profit at sixteen bucks. And I think with that increased velocity that's more and more likely than I expected going into the season. And if there's health, uh, you're getting a boatload of innings with it too, So you're gonna get that mid mid to low three z r A for for two plus innings. Uh. And then price, of course, is the big question of the weekend. We were talking about him in the mix. You paid thirteen. I don't think that's a bad price in an a L. You're just taking the upside gamble there. Yeah, crossing my fingers that he's not gonna end up on the d L. And of course we don't know if that elbow problem is going to affect us for formats as well, so crossing my fingers it doesn't put him back on the deal sometime during the season, and of course, when he's actually on the mound, he'll give us a good price rather than the mediocre one that we saw last year. And the thirteen bucks, I figured it was a cheap enough price to take that risks pretty solid gamble. I agree, So price thirteen in the a L versus eleven in the mixed Yeah, I think I think Mike got the better part than like one there. Sure, let's keep going with your pitching because there's not too much separating Felix and price for Matt Shoemaker at eleven. I really like Shoemaker. I was disappointed not to get him in the mixed auction. Was he a target for years? Was that your price for No, he wasn't a target, but just looking at my values, it seemed like I'm like, Wow, Mat Shoemaker, fourteen bucks, Okay, looks like I'm probably gonna get him. And I think the question was just how he was gonna rebound after getting him in the head last year. But it looks like in the spring he's looking good and he's back on track, and if he continues to throw that splitter is off as as he has uh in the second half of last year, I think he's going to be a good source of strikeouts, and he's not in a good ballpark for flyballs, and you know he gives up flyballs on home runs. So he's in a good spot. And I think he's going to be strong all season long and a good value at eleven dollars and moving over to the hitters. So curse your big ticket items is Mike Trout. We also have that in common forty seven dollars. Um was that? I mean? I had a conversation with Fred Zaki right before the auction yesterday and we both said neither of us could remember ever owning Mike Trout, and I certainly had never. I've been fifty one in the mixed on m I've never been that high in its out Wars auction maybe in one or two others at most. So is this uh? Was that a thing that surprised you that you went that high? Or no? Actually I had a plan this. So Friday finished my spreadsheet, finished my values, I was going down the values and I had Mike Trout worth over fifty bucks. And I had to tell myself because I know in the moment I could never or bring myself to bid over forty dollars on a player, especially aile only if you get a guy injured that you just paid over forty dollars for the replacements. It's it's said twelve team and only. Yeah, unbelievable the scrape and Travis would as a reserve, like and I'm excited about it exactly. Yeah, so sorry, go ahead. But like so you said you could not comfortable going forty, you will go seven more dollars because you knew you had him at fifty plus on your value. And so I had to psych myself into it, saying, all right, going in, I will go up to fifty bucks no matter where he ends. If it's below fifty dollars, I'm going to be that high bidder. If it exceeds fifty, I'm probably gonna drop out. I want to be too nervous, But anything below fifty, I'm going in. I had to tell myself that going into the auction, because if I didn't, I wouldn't be able to pull the trigger. You know, that's funny that you say that, because I regretted not going to the extra dollar on trout in one of my earlier auctions, and so I'm sure that had a lot to do with me having the guts to go to the one on him, because I don't remember if it was that I failed to go to fifty or it was gonna right in that same area and I and in the previous one, I bailed, and so this one I said, yeah, I'm going to do yeah, And he actually went for about the same price. And last year's a all auction, and yet this version of Trout is back to ceiling bases again, and he upped his on base percentage even higher. So this is a better version of Trout, and I got it for the same price. It's interesting. I think a lot of folks have the same reservations that you and ality about going fifty on somebody and or even pushing him past when an actuality, I mean that that's where he's at. I think a lot of people that run their numbers probably come to the same conclusion that he's above fifty, but they're like, oh, I can't pay that, though yes you can, you really can. With Trout, I mean that a few things are more guaranteed than Trout is insofar as we can guarantee anything. So I like what you did there with Trout. I love your secondary stud to Francisco Indoors. Somebody I'm really excited about. Um. I do think that he's going to give you kind of like a bit of everything. Right, Are you expect be more of the same from last year or any changes to his profile as he gets his second year going. I expect more of the same. And the thing is that there were really no discounts in the middle and field, so it's a matter of either getting a guy at value or you know, saving a buck or two. And I wanted to get that guy, and Lindore was the only guy who was basically not going over my price. I'm happy to get five category production from him. He's gonna be in the middle of the lineup all year, gives him some power, stolen bases, good on base guy. So he's all there, and he wasn't as expensive as some of the other guys. One price stands out to me here, uh for your your team, that's Shins too at sixteen. So, um, you know, I'm sure that you know where the question is. The helps that though ob pity helps, that's that's clearly that that gives him a boost in the format. Um, he's just somebody who I don't really have a do not draft list, but if I did he would be on it because wyow, please enlighten us because he's hurt all the time. I know it's a huge shot that that's That's where I'm going with us. But I mean, so, what was your thought process? Well, I know he went I believe it was two years ago. He went for in the thirties in this league, and that was when he was ov ping like four hundred and twenty home runs ten steels. Obviously he's not that same guy, but still he's always gonna have a good ov P. He always walks a lot, he still has power. He's an excellent lineup at a really good park, so he's got everything there. And for sixteen bucks, that's probably the cheapest he's gone in a while. It really is, And obviously it's because the the injuries piled up last year and I played forty games. But even that, you still saw the three fifty seven o v P. The dude knows the strike sound shinsuchu is gonna get you good ov P. So I like it. You know, I got to find a monicum of health there. But it was a decent gamble. I want to talking about one of your flash year ones. I don't think you overpaid though on Greg Bird twelve dollars. Obviously his stock is rising league, you know, all over the place. I saw an NFBC where they list kind of the men pick like the earliest they went. Somebody took him inside, uh right around a hundred, which I think is is kind of obscene. I was curious to see how he was gonna go twelve dollars and a l I didn't think he paid that big of attacks. How do you feel about the twelve dollar purchase? That shocked me because he's a guy that had a big spring training and that usually inflates prices. Maybe you know, this is an industry league. Maybe we're a little too smart to actually inflate prices. But people are already excited, exactly, and and the thing is going into the season. I loved Bird. Then they signed Chris Carter, and I was annoyed because I thought I was gonna get burden each league. Now I'm a little nervous because if Bird struggles, he's not gonna face lefties. He might be losing at Batson now to right ees with tow Carter. So that really prevented me from drafting him in my previous two leagues, and now with the big spring training that solidifies his role, he might not even get benched against lefties every single time. So I'm just shocked. And I got him for twelve. I figured for sure to go for a far more than that. Yeah, no, I would too. It was good, good price figos, scarring through some sort of spreadsheets everything. So no, I've the fan Raig draft that you shows not to do, I'm doing it. So I've been making picks while we've been doing your multitasking. I'm trying. I'll tell him, Paul I got, I got two force of the Rockies in field, so I got le Mayhew and Story just head to head. You can't go wrong by picking Rockies, especially when you're at home. Yeah, you're just not gonna go broke on that. So well that that's that's some impressive multitasking. And Bryce Harper felt me at eight, so I was excited. I couldn't hit I couldn't hit By fast enough on that one. I was like, I'll take him at eight all day start. So let's get back to Bird because there's a lot to talk about with him. He's such a perfect fit for Yankee Stadium because that short right field porch is he's a lefty, he hits a ton of flyballs. He doesn't necessarily need a really high homeword for flyball ratio to hit thirty home runs. So he's a he's a perfect guy for that stadium. All right, So you said you've got all these Yankees and you're not a Yankees fan. But I'm starting to, you know, see question that not not not question the fandom, but but you know a bias here that I agree with because I agree completely with what you just said about Bird. You got Aaron Judge for three dollars, which in the nail only I think is fantastic value. And Matt Holiday at fourteen, now I got him for three in the mix which I thought was great value. There I think one in the twelve team that's crazy. So you know, I guess you know clearly you you had competition here. You've had people in this ail auction who were valuing Holiday higher than um in the mixed auctions at the Paul and I were in. But you know clearly you were motivated to go. So is this all part of a pattern here or well it's c O B P. I mean, Yearly was ob p as well. Uh, I just love Holiday betting clean up in that part because he's been in a picture's park for a couple of years and now in St. Louis. I mean, obviously, he started out his career in Colorado, so he has hit in a hitters part before. This is a much more favorable hitting environment. Batting clean up. He's gonna be the d h the majority of the time. We don't have to worry about injuries. They are a little less about injuries for him, and he's should be a lot for twenty home runs, good run production, and a high on base percentage. And fourteen dollars to me is a it's a really good price. This power was really through the roof last year played games, but Holiday's power was there. We love Yankee Stadium for lefties, but it's no slouch for righties either. So I did like your focus. You know, you backed up your judge. I'm not a huge judge guy, but three bucks I would I would definitely take that. And then you backed him up with Hicks. If things go south and he does strike out too much and he can't get it done, they're gonna give Hicks the playing time. It's a different profile that you get all of a sudden, you're probably looking at like a twelve twelve sort of guy. But I like that you even backed it up, so you know, we can we can kind of poke fun or or or make jokes about the Yankee thing. But I think you did a really good job and you got the right ones. I'm sorry, Yeah, Paul, and you love ticks last year if I yeah, absolutely, I mean, and this is the same guy. I mean, obviously he was a disappointment, but he got like, like, how can you get on a roll there? So I mean this is still a guy with the same upside and skills. I completely agree. That's why I love that you just want a head and said I'll take the judge insurance and go from there. So your offense came together. One one last guy I want to talk about. Saladino is a sneak tip. I just really like him at seven with with Larry getting cut, Yeah, no, I do to. I picked him up in the reserves in the mix and let's go go to the reserves just real quick before we hit break here. So you got Hicks. I'm assuming that was an intentional move. That was the handcuffed for a judge was Travis would the handcuff for Carnes or you just know it is a handcuff for Price. I really like Carnes. I love Royals pictures, that outfield defense, the park, it's just a perfect environment for pictures, especially flyball guys like Travis Wood. I mean, this is the perfect spot for Travis would obviously be better in the National League, but Cincinnati, Yeah, I mean, I don't know how long he's gonna stay in the rotation. You got Matt Strom in there as a maybe if Chris Midland proves that he's healthy, maybe he moves in eventually. But for the time being, while prices on the d L, Travis Wood is the perfect replacement. I mean, our pickings are slim, so there's really not much to choose from. Yeah, to find someone that you're excited about in the there, that's pretty good. Yeah, absolutely absolutely so. And I want to talk a little bit about that more when we come back and break out ahead, break right right now, but a little more reserved, talking a little more Ale League analysis of Stay tuned. Welcome back, everybody, a fan rag Fantasy Baseball. I'm your host, Alan Meltner. We are here live and Rock and Riley's and Manhattan for the Top Wars Extravaganza, got the and Il auction going on right now. This closes out the series of auctions for this weekend. Great great times with great folks that I don't get to see mostly the rest of the year. And we've got somebody else joining us here. Paul Sport has left us, so we get some great analysis from Paul and now joining us from Rhodo experts, Mr Scott Engle, a former I was gonna say colleague of mine, but that's not exactly right because I wasn't working in Fantasy at CBS ME when we're there back in the day. But we we go back a long way. We we do. And you know, it's great to hear you on the network. Great deal of fan rag doing their things. You guys are doing a great job. When when I heard you you were coming over, I was very excited. I said, not only did Al really know his stuff, because I think you contributed some articles when I was working there early, and I was like, Wow, this guy really knows this stuff. I said, Al's like one of the nicest guys in the business. I said, it's no wonder that he had non no dafino A good friends. That's a huge couple it So thank you, Scott, I will, I will take it and I appreciate it, and I'm very glad to have you on, and not just because you said that. Uh So we were breaking down the ale only auction. We've got my cod Horserre here from Fan Grafts and we also have a Greg Joey here from Fan rag Um and we were talking. We wound up the previous segment talking about your your reserve round picks, and so we we focused on Aaron Hicks and Travis Wood, who you both said were handcuffs of a sort. So there's you know, certainly different ways to go at the reserve rounds. I know it probably doesn't seem like a big deal. Maybe it's an afterthought for for some, but um, you know, you can go the up side route and just take the crazy flyers, or you can you know, get your insurance policies. So at least with two of the four you did that. I mean, do you have a standard approach, tried and true approach for that or just yeah, just fly fly by the c I generally want major leaguers a lot of the guys, they go for that upside and they pick the top prospect who probably won't get called up until September, and in September they're probably not even gonna play. And the thing is, we only get four reserves, so you're not You're either gonna lock yourself into only three reserves the entire season because you just want to hold on to that one guy until September, or you're gonna get hit with injuries or under performers and you're gonna be dropping him by the end of May. So there's it's just a waste to me. So I want guys that are actually gonna help me now rather than have to wait five months until they can potentially help me and even know if they're gonna help me in September. Yeah, let's uh. I think that's I don't know, from my perspective, I think that's a rarer approach. I mean, for example, Glabor Torres was a guy that was picked in the is are around. He's never having a bat above high a what is he gonna do. Get up in September, He'll get some games in, so you're gonna hold him all season long. Use one of your four reserve slots on a guy that maybe we'll come up in September and start a couple of games. It just seems like a waste of a pick to me. All Right, it's a little negativity on the Yankees there, no, but but he makes a great point because if you're in the league only format, you're trying to get all the endings in a battage you can get your hands on. So when you're speculating on somebody that could come up, um, it does handcuff your roster a little bit because you're not going to drop him because obviously somebody else will pick them right up if you have to do something. But you want flexibility, you want to be able to have that things. Guy goes down. I know, at least he might only give me twenty at bats this week, but he's gonna get him at bats. How do you feel about your Tyler Skaggs pick? I was very curious because only three dollars. Uh. The guys dealt with a lot of injuries, but there's certainly a ton of potential there. Got off to a rough start in the spring, that's kind of turned it around recently. All I care about for him is his velocity. His fast ball velocity was up after coming off of Tommy John. I believe he's basically maintained that this year in spring training so far. So that's what I'm really concerned about. Obviously, the injuries are an issue, but he should be healthy right now, and so I'm very encouraged by that increase in velocity, and I think eventually it's going to translate into really strong results. I was very surprised. We talked earlier about the steamer projections for Eric Thames, and I think if there was a projection that surprised me more than that one, it was their projection for for Tyler skaggs Um. I thought very very optimistic. I believe that was a mid three let's say three r A Am I correct? And I'd say no higher than I mean, I canna look it up, but yeah, yeah, Fames. I thought it was a little absurd. I'm like Jared Cross, He's the guy who developed these steamer projections, Like, Jared, where are these coming from? Like I I mean, really, for for Thames, it's really just uh a wild guess because we really have no idea and we have so few Korean Baseball League players that have come over that. It's really hard to say. It's a real challenge to project. I mean my projections were just conservative and we really don't know, so who knows. We'll find out at the end of the season. However, I do think the themes is going very cheaply in the majority of leagues, and I think at that price, he's certainly worth the risk. Yeah, so I've looked up skags and good call by you, Mike. Three point five seven e r A projected twenty four starts, uh eight point nine case per nine three point one walks, that would make him a bargain. Um, I didn't project. I wasn't that optimistic, but I am definitely so four e r A and my projections. Uh, that seems like the ultimate outside of the Steamer projections. Yeah, and I wasn't because you know, last year, I mean it was very limited innings, but he did um, you know, transcend the the ending rather struck out per inning mark. But that's not you know, by and large the Tyler scags that we've seen. Yeah, and I know Steamer incorporates velocity into their projections, so I'm sure. I'm sure they were very encouraged and that velocity bump probably has a lot to do with those very optimistic projections. That's that's the it's really good to know. Um So, in terms of the other teams, we broken down your team quite a bit, like, but have you had a chance to kind of survey the l landscape? And no, I I rarely even during the auction, like, I don't look at other people's teams. I have no idea what teams are doing. Actually, last year, it turned out that there was a team that bought a nine dollar pitching staff, which I've always wanted to do and always thot it would be fun. I didn't even realize it. I didn't realize it until the end, like or maybe like the maybe the second to last picture he bought. I'm like, wait a seconds, And I'm sure everybody else realized it before I did. But I don't really pay attention to other people's rosters other than the fact that I need to know what positions they need and how much money they have leftovers. I don't care about the names because I'm playing my own roster. I care about my own team and that's it, and I I really can't worry about what other people are doing. Alright playing the course that I like that a lot. Uh you guys, I mean, you know, and actually I feel, you know, after a draft, like I'm amazed, like when when we go to follies after you know, the big bixed auction and everybody's you know, talking about the rosters and you're not talking up, but you're talking about their rosters. And I'm always amazed how much bandwidth people have to kind of scan the whole league and you know, say, well, you know, I did well here, but you know sometime well get there. Uh how do you uh, it's got how do you you you approached after a draft America, you kind of just you know, play the golf course or you know, or you start right away kind of looking, you know, sizing up the competition and maybe looking for trade possibilities or looking at strikes and weaknesses that that sort of thing. For people listen to me during the week, it's like my my co host never never believe me. But I never look in like other teams, Like like in any sport, I'm so invested in my own team. I don't have the bandwidth to to to look at the other teams. Because as soon as my drafts is over. I'm obsessing about where my strengths and weaknesses are that I don't have time to like look at the other teams necessarily, I listen, want to make a trade with them, like right out of the bat, and you know it's uh, I probably won't have to do that because I'll probably get an email from Fred Ziggy as we speak, even mentioned his name. Yeah, we were all thinking it. He actually told me that he's vowed to take it easy on the trade front this year. He said that last night. Yeah, he hasn't made one trade offer in labor mixed, and I'm quite disappointed, frankly, and that they threw afted a few weeks ago. And then right, yeah, it was more than a month ago. We drafted Greg looked like you you uh, we're looking to chime in there. Uh no, No, that was just a trade offer in his inbox. Yeah, I mean, well renowned for you know, sweetheart deal. Yes, but it's led to lots of success. Absolutely, yeah. No, And you know, he's I think he's one of those folks who, you know, his mind just works a certain way that he can you know, absorb all that and so he's instantly looking at possibilities. Yeah, I'm too lazy to trade seriously, because it takes a lot of time to actually look at other rosters and see what they need, and then try to craft an offer that's fair and then try to vince the other owner that yeah, it's a great trade, it's gonna help both of us, or it's gonna help you. Don't worry about my team. It's just like I just don't want to do it. I'm just too lazy. Well, how many how many legues do you have this year? This year is gonna be four, Last year it's been typically three. I know some other guys I know sports, you're saying, like fifteen. I can't do that. You're then rooting four and against every single player. And so that's why I like having the same players on each team, because then I only I can root for those players. Then a lot of times if I trade a player, I kind of want to trade a player from both of my team and then the same player from both teams because I don't want to still own him in one league if I'm like rooting against him because I just traded him. So I can't be in so many leads. It's too hard to pay attention and really be active in that many leagues. Yeah, and I can't be one of those people. To me, one league has absolutely nothing to do with the other. If I end up with the same guys, it's coincident. It's fine. It's like I I did my fs W A A L on the auction. Last week. I went I went off to Chris sale. Yesterday, I went off to a sale. It's it's I I take every league as individual because every league is unique. Yeah. Uh, Scott, how many leagues do you have this year? Right now? I I have four. I've been trying to trim it down and just you know, you take more laser focus on each league. I have that. I have my Dynasty Slash Keeper League. That's unique. It's like six by six with like uh with like slugging percentage and quality starts and and stuff like that. You do your keepers under a salary cap. And We've got a big money league next week. Uh here in New York that's running by Tony Sankata, the Greanted Street Tavern League, which is owned by Chris Picaro. Okay, yeah, as far as what how many teams, Well, we spoke earlier, um when we were just talking when we when we got here, and I was saying, like a lot of my drafts, I've almost been in the same spot. I drafted eighth and twelfth in the NFBC. Uh the drafting in right now, I got eighth the draft him doing night, I'm seven. So I'm like, I keep finding myself at the same because the drafts keep kind of zigg in the same way. So I'm getting a lot of the a lot of congruents in my rosters just because I'm always kind of box into the same place. But you know, if you know where your targets are and where your values are, if you're in that same slot, it almost makes it easier. Like this draft is easy because I can kind of anticipate who's going to be around and who isn't. So this makes how many for you? Uh this one right now? Because I think you've done some of mox. I know that's the box. Don't really like the box. Yeah, I'll probably be in about nine or ten because I'm gonna do to twelve team nfbc's this week. This is my first time doing the Drafted Champions this year with the NFPC. I did keep up. You know what, I actually did. But again, now I have a lot of similar players, so if somebody gets hurt, I know I can fix them on a couple of rosters. So I believe it was two years ago. I decided I'm only in three leagues. This would help you even more. I made a spreadsheet and I counted up how many players from each team I owned to determine which game to watch. So if I had, like if I have like five Yankees in total and all my rosters the Yankees, somebody watching every night. Oh yeah, no, well welcome to my world. Uh yeah, And I've carved it down. I think two years ago, I think I had fifteen. Last year, I got it down to twelve. This year nine and fifteen teams. Yeah, and it's insanity. So I've been trying to carve it down. I have a hard time. No, Sometimes you should make that spreadsheet so you know which games your prayer order, what games to on. What I what I did do last year was I made a spreadsheet, you know, with every league and every player, so I knew how many shares I had, and then you can then sometimes they're on to see how many players it was pretty well, you know, divested h spread Cross, but I had something ridiculous like eight or nine shares of Justin Borlander and it worked out obviously last year. Yeah, yeah, what if? What if you're playing daily though, then what do you decided to watch at night alone with you see your daily team? No, I don't like watching a daily. If I got stuff in a daily, I feel like I'm a jinx. The one time I hit the moon shot, I didn't watch any of the games except for Chris Davis home run. I'm like, oh my god, we might win some money. That's why, that's why it was superstitious. Huh A little bit. Well, we gotta we gotta hit the break. So uh, we'll come back. We'll talk more, to talk more strategy, So stick around. Welcome back everybody to fan Rag Fantasy Baseball. I'm your host, Al Melk you are, and we are here live from tot Wars. We've got the nl entree. It's still ongoing, I believe, yes, uh and uh, we've got a crew here, expanded crew. We've got Greg Jewett, our usual Sunday guest from fan Rag. We have Scott Engel from Rhodo Experts, and uh now joining us Mike poth hoors Are is gonna come back for the next segment. But joining us now is Laura Michael's from Master's Ball. So that the word on the street, that's that's what I've been hearing. So well, Laura, well thanks for joining us. We welcome to the show. Thanks, and so, I mean, this is a pretty fun weekends. It's it's it's always it's not a bad way to get and we actually go back aways. We go back like fifteen twenty years now that I think about, I mean, I remember, I think you were like a philosophy student with with hair longer than mine when I first met you. We didn't known each other for so long that I've come full circle with the facial hair because I had the ponytail and the beard and the mustache when I first met you back in like thousand. Yeah, it's probably around it because it was I was writing for HQ that Ron Shandler gave me my first job, paying job in baseball writing for h Q and UM and we we met it I think first pitch probably around two thousand and yeah. So I had the all the facial hair and long hair and all that. The long hair is gone, but the facial hairs. Hairs make it come back. Actually no, I think my hair was long then, but I mean I had it short for a period of time that I now regret. But but what's perfect about that is Ron gave you. You know, you have the first guy you worked for for a paying gig in in the industry was Ron. So if he comes in to replace me, the first guy I worked for as a paying gig in the industry while Benson. But was that guy over there, Wow, Laura Michaels was was wrote for CBS sports Line back in the late ninety nineties. You know I had Uh, I had baseball. Uh. I guess we'd call them stringers if you want. Uh. You know, Laura, Laura was my regular guy every week. I was well strong, this is this is did we have we have different uh, we have different had branches of sports line history here once again, yesterday when you joined, it was me, you and Nando yesterday with it's all it's all a tree sort of. And one of the reason things too is I mean we're pretty well one of the things for sure, you out wrong, Scott, and I mean we've all been crossings and past for twenty years and and we were all here at the beginning of the industry really, whether anybody likes to admit it or not, either for for my virtue of age and not wanting to acknowledge that or acknowledge that was the seeds whatever. But it is a tight, close little community, and you know, we all everybody's written for everybody else, and everybody knows everybody else. So to that degree, despite the fact that we're all as individual players ridiculously competitive, we are kind of one sort of homogeneous isotropic unit, wouldn't you say. I used to say, like we're a big we're big fraternity. It's like we're Phi Kappa Roto or something like that. Is that anything like I felt a fire at a pie or you missed I felt the thigh, so oh boy, I can miss that. Let's say if I can interject, Because um Nando, who went to high school where I teach um his mom gave me fantasy Land, which kind of made me a think, like, you know what, I like playing fantasy, but maybe I would like to write about it too. And then he got me a position with guys at Rono Analysis give me my start, and then I got picked up by fan Rag and I've done numerous mock drafts with you, but this is the first thing. He wanted me to come down last year, and I'll scared. I'm like, I'm not ready. These guys are way above me. And then I came down this year and as everybody was just just been so nice, shaking hands, you know, the followbacks on Twitter, it's just been you know what you guys talking about it. It's just been so warm and welcoming. It's just blow me away. And and but I understand that because I remember when I was when I was invited out for my first out and I played. I was good locally, right, you know, big fish, little Pond, I could I could whoop everybody in my local league and stuff like that. But I never played beyond that, and I got I remember riding on the plane and having queazy stomach, and Jesus, I mean, I know what I'm gonna do. Here's my you know, strategy and stuff. But god, what if these guys are really good and I can't cut it, I'm think goingould be really humiliated. And it's easy for you though, It's like you're you're this cool guy. You know. I've seen the clips to you with your rock band on stage. He's the one guy you know, the all events like serious and everything, lawyers standing around, he's on the side. He's just showing and he's jumping around with the guitar and everything, and you know, it's like he's Shelvid. So you know, just to pretend, you just have to pretend you were you were on stage with your band. Well that actually there is there is something to that. I I used to run a lot of meetings when I had my real income earning gig at a T and T. I used to run a lot of very very big meetings and somebody has to you, how do you do that? And I played a band. I mean, I'm used to standing up in front of four people with an acoustic guitar. If I can do that by myself standing in front of thirty five people trying to keep them organized as nothing, So yeah, that's good to get good preparation for that. I do want to break into your team a little bit here. You've got a lot of my faves. You've got Carl Santana, and I'm sorry this is a preface that so well I can ever get a musician on my team is a good thing. That's right now. I thought it was very smooth pick. So, uh, you got Chris Davis with the Kent three, Chris Archer as your ace. Now we've had so many people through to day. I don't remember who else it was we had here who too did the same Um Paul. Paul had Archer on his huge offense staff. That was his anchor for picture. And and I predicted all of these because when doing the mox with Lar, I knew every time on the turn, I wasn't gonna get Archer. I wasn't gonna get Chris Davis. Um, you know kier Meyer, I see on there. These are all guys that he talked. I mean, but what's cool is is you do the mocks of these people. So it's not just like Lar's mocking to mock. He's he's understanding whose targets are and he's said now where he wants to hit him. So you know, you get your people, and you're talking about this when you're coming in. You you have your targets. You stay with it. Your queasy on the thing. And I was queasy driving down here from Syracuse the other day. But once I started meeting people in shaking hands. It just goes away. But you know, I told I was like, he's going to get archer. I know what's coming. And then there it went, Um, how do you feel about Max Coupler or seventeen? He was? He was he There were several guys I was kind of looking at and I had I had like nineteen dollars sort of peg for that slot, and he just kind of I was at a point in the draft to where I had a little bit more money. I had money to spend, and I was budgeting it out really well. But I try to be really really careful so that I could go into the last end game with the most money. You know that That's that's that's part of what I like to do. I can be very, very very patient. The problem is sometimes you can be too patient. But because the same thing happened with PLUF, I was really looking at Castellanos, but both of them came up, I forget who it was I was looking for that. I thought it might be twenty dollars, and when PLUF came up for ten, you know, Castellanists might cost me nineteen eighteen nineteen bucks ten bucks frozen on PLUF, I get a starter third baseman. It could probably hit ten fifteen homers. All right, I'm gonna use that eight bucks that elsewhere and grab him and kind of the same one with Kepler or Okay, it's three or four more dollars I can save towards the end game. I feel good about him. I think he's at a good year last year. I think he can maintain if nothing else. And you know, I was, I don't have a real st Tannis is close to a real bangers I have, But I've got five or six guys who can hit twenty homers. He kept are being one of them, So I was, I was kind of happy about it. Plus you're you're right, there are guys I targeted in the mock drafts and I like. But I tried to mix it up and see what what will my lineup look like if I don't have Chris Davis. And I do love Chris Archer. I thought I was going to get him in Labor for eighteen. He pitched so well, He's had a good spring. He was so great at the WBC. He cost twenty two at Labor. So when I reevaluated everything a thought and I got different starting pitchers, in the labor, I thought, I really want Archer. I'm gonna build my staff around him, and I'll budget twenty four for him. And there he was. You got Jordan's element for a dollar? Is there is actually in fair? Is it two dollars and fifty cents too much based on what we saw last year? Uh? You know that this guy in the American League now he doesn't strike anybody out. Uh? Is this a guy that maybe even want to keep on your bench earlier in the year. No, not not yet. I mean remember when he first pitched last year for Detroit, didn't you go five? And oh? At first he was like lights out and then he got hurt and then he struggled. So and I don't think he's as bad as when he struggled for three bucks. You know, for three bucks, I can throw him back. But for right now, if he's an everyday arm especially the first month of the season, unless I see something that really upsets me, I'll let him go. I tend to be slow. I tend I tend to try to give my guys a chance, which sometimes can be good because I'm patient. On the other hand, if you're gonna pick guys out of the out of the waiverpool. Now is the time because now you're gonna get if somebody grabs a job, now you're gonna get the maximum innings or at bat. So you have to be kind of proactive with that. Now, you said that you've got a lot of guys that were your targets. Maybe not necessarily what you set out to do, but you know you got your guys. Are you a Nake one guy? Because Nike one for ten dollars it seems slaying a lot of people are very uh skeptical of him after you know, a really good power breakout last season, so you're more of an optimist. Um, well, again, I had actually was looking at getting Dye Rosario and and Outfielers. By then we're getting a little bit thinner, and I'd packed like three or four for Rosario. But by the time it got around there, I thought maybe it would maybe he would go for a little bit more. And again by that time, you know, I'd saved some money here and there, and I just thought, I know he's going to start. Just just grab it, get it, get it over with, put the extra money away. As it was, Rosario went for three dollars less. So I probably I might have been able to wait. Well, I would have got him for eight if i'd bit up one. So it's only a two dollar savings. But the most thing is for ten bucks, I got an everyday guy who probably hit around two seventy. Give me fifteen homers and steel ten bases. I'll take it, you know, I'll take it any day of the week. Yeah, how about your catcher situation. Was this an intentional punt here at a couple of one dollar catchers or just how how things? Uh? I don't really think it's punting. I you know, I'm okay with one dollar catchers. I'm okay for my four bucks or whatever I spent on Leon and and and Joseph. If the two of them give me ten twelve homers collectively and they knock in sixty runs collectively and they're about two sixty collectively for two dollars, great, that's that's that's a pretty good investment. And their backup guys for the most part that you know, Joseph, I liken Joseph a lot to Chris Herman because they're almost the same age. They have almost the same curve development through the minor leagues and you know, if if and Joseph's actually trying not to pay too much attention to spring numbers, but he's hitting two seventy five get two homers, um so and and Leaders as well, not that Leaders got that much end of his career. But if if, if, if he gets his two bats as a backup catcher and he gives me five homers, that's fine for a dollar, right, you know, yeah, yesterday for five bucks in the mixed league. So I'm glad here did you say that? Well? And and Castile? I mean, he's not really known for his defensive metrics, so that if if the staff is struggling, I could give more at best to Joseph down the road. Do you worry about Francisco not yet? Asked me? Well, asked me and asked to be in six weeks or and and and and mostly you know how it goes. People say, how do you like your team? Might go? Ask me in October. That's the thing everybody has asked me. I know, this is my fifth year and tout and every single year I love my team on auction day, absolutely love it. And it's really only worked out well once you know it's the first year I've actually liked my team draft. Well, don't you guys find out. I mean, I remember a couple of times, especially early on when I played locally, that I remember walking out of a draft one day. No on, I just did beat the crap out of everybody, and I did win. But for the most part, whenever I end up with a team that I think in a draft war, I think I did really well a fair miserably. That's it's like the kiss of death is a team that you like, and I think I really liked this team, which I probably Yeah, exactly exactly. We can get out start wearing black arm bands tomorrow. Well, we gotta head to break. So we got one more segment left, and you alluded to the fact that we got very special guest coming up. So in case you didn't hear that, stick around stay two to see who it is. We'll be right back. Welcome back everybody to fan Rag Fantasy Baseball. I'm your host, Al Melchior, and uh we are honing in on the final segment of our two hour Tout Wars extravaganza. We are here live at Tout Wars in New York and joining me is Greg Jewett from fan rag and back with us as Mike Potters are from fan Graphs. UH, and I want to thank Laura Michaels from a Master's Ball for joining us for the last segment. He has gone, uh, well actually he's uh, he's around here, but joining us uh for this final segment is Ron Chandler named that to everybody in the fantasy community has known for a long long time. And as we mentioned, I mentioned earlier the show, Ron gave me my first writing gig in fantasy. So it's a real pleasure on uh for having you on here. Thank thanks for joining us. Well, thank you, it's my pleasure. And um, you know, I want to say of a baseball HQ. But I know that you know there's been you know, some changes in recent years. So where are all the places that people can can find your work these days? Well, most of my stuff is at ron Chandler dot com, my website. I also uh write a column every Wednesday at ESPN in the Fantasy page there, and you know catch me on Twitter at ron Chandler. All right, well everybody should do that if you're not doing that already. And Ron took part in the mixed auction yesterday now that this is is this your first year ever in the mix because you migrated from a le right, Yeah, I've been in the AL since two thousand four and before that it was an l a l back and forth. But this was my first year in the Mixed as far as out worse concerned. So was that was that something you wanted to do or your approached or what what change? Yeah? It was it was something I've been thinking about for a while. We were several reasons why I decided to switch over. One just basically to mix things up a little bit, because you know, after you've been doing something for a real long time, you kind of get into a rut and you do kind of find yourself doing the same strategies over and over again, and you know, it's sort of like the definition of insanity and doing the same thing over and expecting a different result, and it just wasn't happening for me. So I figured, uh, mixed was a different experience. UM. I also been doing some new types of strategies that I think would work better in a deeper league, so um I thought that would be a good opportunity to try him out and MIXED. Now you're referring to BABS in particular or my yeah, my mistress BABS for people might not be acquainted. What's the you know, the elevator BABS is it stands for a broad assessment balance sheet and basically it's there's several parts of the strategy. One is that players are are evaluated as a series of assets and liabilities, sort of like a balance sheet UM. And on the assets side, players are grouped into tiers of like skills UM and then we look at their market values within those tiers to to see where the profit is. So an example I often give is that the trade turner, A. J. Pollock, and David Doll are three players who essentially have the same skill set you know, moderate power, some speed, batting, average type of thing, well within the same level. But you know, Turners a lot more expensive than the other two. But if you assume that the variability of statistics around those skills is about the same, then you basically target you know, assumingly healthy David Doll for a lot lesser price and potentially get the same type of numbers that trade turner might put up. Was there anybody on your roster that you put together yesterday that was a target that you might have had. I might just be making a battle sluturity. Assume you have, you know, particular targets that come out of out of the baths and elysis. But was there any in particular that you know may have been influenced by that approach. Oh? Absolutely, there are quite a few players. As a matter of fact, last year, year ago, at this time, I was saying that Nick Castellanos at the same skill set is Evan Longoria, and so you know this year again, you know, Longoria is going for a higher price and Castellanos went for seven. I was able to get him. So very pleased with that. Um, Jose Perazza, you know another player who's who's got basically the same skill set as some of the higher stolen base type guys, and so always able to get him at a discount compared to some of them. Uh, that's good, that's good. Um. And Castellanos you're talking about posibly hitting him second this year. So yeah, seven dollars, that even makes him a better value. Very pleased with that. Yeah, yeah, And he was somebody who was you know, served by my targets. But I just couldn't couldn't pull the trigger went accounted and in in in this same auction, mixed Auction, I went up with um, Howie Kendrick is my third basement, and just in these deep per formats there always seems to be just one. Last year was catcher for me, which is why I asked Laura the question about the two one dollar catchers because I did not want to be stuck in that position again. So this year was third base. It's like whack a mole, just you know, some position that I wanted up waiting much much longer than I want to. Um, Greg, I know we had had a discussion about the end game. We haven't really talked too much about that in this program yet. And since you think Ron be a good person to um, I know you had a specific question about what happened yesterday. Yeah, when we were talking to uh to Jeff earlier, he he brought up the fact that he wished at the end he had saved money a couple of times to be able to go two dollars when it got to because I don't know if you're at the mixed yesterday, but at the end and almost turned into a a snake draft with one dollar bids. So anybody that had an extra dollar, which Ron was one of those people, and he could probably speak to this, um, it's good to have an extra dollar two at the end, so if there's a player that you really wanted, you can go to when everyone else is down to that one dollar. And they all seemed to almost arrive there at the same time. So every time there was a bid, Jeff Ericson would look at to Ron to see if you want them, and he would just give him the head shake no if that wasn't his guy, and was moved on to the next one. So I was that something you planned on or was that just a nice benefit at the end to be able to get a player two of your choice because you had an extra dollar too. Well, I think you have to follow the flow of the draft. I know that I went deep on several players earlier, spent like a hundred dollars right off the bat, on Freddie Freeman, Joey Vado, and John Lester. So when you do something like that, you know that you're gonna have to sit and wait for a while. And the question is how long do you wait? And I think there was an ebb and flow later in the draft where Um, I waited, you know, perhaps maybe a little bit longer than I wouldn't I should have, But I mean the end result was a benefit that I ended up with a few extra dollars more than everyone else, and so I was able to go to when somebody else went on, so as I was. I guess it was more serendipitous than anything else. Now I got a question about you already mentioned Jose Peraza. Um, you got hit for sixteen, you got de Gordon for nineteen. I see them is very similar. And when you talked about Paraz, I can't recall if you lumped him and with with Gordon or not. But um, but I'm also lumping them together in a negative way. In that last year when Gordon came back from the suspension, a lot of weak contact and uh, Paraza you know has not you know, been known to really hit with with a lot of contact, and that combined with some of the inefficiency with the base dealing a pretty low success rate. I have some worries about both of them. Do you think that either one could potentially be of adding averager in this format an ov P liability that might also hurt their their stolen base potential sure, and that's a possibility. But that's that's why you have the flexibility to do things like that. When you have a Joey Vado and Freddie Freeman on your team, who are you hoping for o bps? You know, in access of three seventy even higher. So it gives you some some wiggle room there. So I wasn't too worried about that. That's that's fair enough. Um. We talked a little bit earlier about kind of scanning the uh, the the whole league. So I don't know how we sort of as a group, you know, said yeah, we don't really have the bandwidth right after an auction to take in all the other teams. How much that did you do? And were there any other teams that that stood out to you? You know, they really nailed it. No, I really didn't do it. I haven't even looked at my team yet, So like, who did I end up with? Oh? Yes, oh I have him? Oh good? Uh Well that's that's that's fair enough. So well, we were closing in here on just the final minute or so, so, um, Mike, any any final thoughts on the experience this weekend. Yeah, it was a little disappointing. Not to compete with Roun this year for the first time, and Greg is an observer. Anything unexpected, surprising, No, no, Like I said, the biggest surprise was just how great everybody is down here is just unbelievable. The Calmaradderie and it just you know, it speaks to all the people in this that you know, if you want to get started in this, take the chance. And that's the thing following up on that is that we're such a tight knit community and we essentially see each other once a year, so everybody knows each other, and then that the one time year we're all together like a Emily and it's like, all right, I'll see you in a year from now. But we're also close, and yet we see each other so frequently, so it's it's nice. One of the things also that that's interesting Sam Walker in his book, I think encapsulated in the word also the fact that we write for each other and have always known this listen. This community is is kind of incestuous when you think about it, and but it's but it's a great community. I mean, we're all very tight, so that's a good thing. Well, and on that note, we we have to wind up here so Ron, thank you so much for joining us, very welcome. Also likewise, Mike uh greg As. Allways, thank you for joining us on the Sunday, taking the full two hours of your time and making some draft picks. Very impressed on. So we will be back tomorrow. Actually will be Nando Da Finale with Jim Finch tomorrow at three pm Eastern. They'll see you then, I'll see you Thursday. Take care,
