Dividend Stocks That Make Your Phone Ding | with Terryl Humphrey and Stephen M Farrington | 370

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[SPEAKER_00]: I ride a finance newsletter on sub-stack when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, they immediately stopped producing their least profitable skews.
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[SPEAKER_00]: But even $100 in a company, it's a $5 bagger, it goes to $500.
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[SPEAKER_00]: You have to do some math, you have to do the basics.
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[SPEAKER_00]: I've been in a lot of jobs, and the boss says, okay, who wants over time this week.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And nobody raises their having a family, having your family be in good health.
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[SPEAKER_00]: That's the number one predictor of God whether somebody's happy.
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[SPEAKER_01]: What does failure is knowledge and team?
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[SPEAKER_00]: No ceiling above me.
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[SPEAKER_00]: There's no upper limit, and that's kind of amazing.
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[SPEAKER_01]: Steven.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
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[SPEAKER_01]: I appreciate your patience.
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[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you again for throwing out some deep phasing off podcasts.
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[SPEAKER_01]: I just got one question for you.
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[SPEAKER_01]: Why?
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[SPEAKER_01]: Unemployed value.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I write a finance newsletter on sub-stack and I think, you know, unemployed tells everyone that I'm working on it full-time, there's a lot of people that have a day job and then their newsletter is sort of a, you know, when I get around to it sort of thing, and I put out a lot of content.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So, value is, I focus on misprice stocks, things I think the price is wrong for some reason.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And then, Dee Jen, they were a little on the riskier side.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, gambling is getting a lot more in the public consciousness.
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[SPEAKER_00]: You got draft kings.
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[SPEAKER_00]: You got sports betting on the Super Bowl was up 27% this year.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So people are getting very in touch with risk award situations.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And I'd like to get people more interested in getting those jollies in the stock market instead of a sports betting.
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[SPEAKER_00]: If you want to have fun thinking about the future,
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[SPEAKER_00]: You know, when you think about sports betting, it's zero sum, right?
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[SPEAKER_00]: The money you lose somebody else makes, and then the bookkeeper keeps someone top of it.
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[SPEAKER_00]: When you think about the capital markets, or when you buy a piece of a business, that's a part of the capital stock that helps finance projects that helps, you know, make the world a wealthier place.
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[SPEAKER_00]: It's a positive, some game.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So if young people want to spend their time thinking about the future, predicting the future, trying to make money for themselves,
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[SPEAKER_00]: It's just way better for everyone to gamble in the stock market.
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[SPEAKER_01]: As I was the researchee, you will have a background in math.
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[SPEAKER_01]: What's specific, what kind of math specifically?
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[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, so in the PhD program, the kind of math, it's all statistical.
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[SPEAKER_00]: We call it econometrics, it's the math behind economics.
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[SPEAKER_00]: which is also the math-fine weather forecast thing, which is kind of funny.
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[SPEAKER_00]: You should probably treat them with about the same level of confidence.
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[SPEAKER_00]: But I mean, I've been in math for so long years and years and years.
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[SPEAKER_00]: What's really funny about that, though, is the more time I spend in finance, the less the math helps, if you have to do some math, you have to do the basics.
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[SPEAKER_00]: But for example, one of the companies that I'm I've written about recently is, oh, gosh, so many examples of this.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Let me think, so crocks, right?
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[SPEAKER_00]: The footwear crocks.
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[SPEAKER_00]: That stock is trading so cheaply right now that if they're company right now, the market is pricing in that they're not going to grow anymore.
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[SPEAKER_00]: If they do keep growing, and they grew a 30% year over year in sales in China.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And China is really known for being nationalistic, like a bi-American campaign, a bi-China campaign.
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[SPEAKER_00]: The fact that they can have such enormous growth in China and South Korea and Japan, I don't think the growth story is over for them, and if the growth story is not over for crox, then the price is wrong.
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[SPEAKER_00]: But I don't need sophisticated math to know that.
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[SPEAKER_00]: All I have to know is that the consensus is that they're not going to grow anymore.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And if they're wrong about that, then it's underpriced.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So it doesn't take that much math for that.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So after spending way too long, I had a math minor for my undergrad, and then I had all the econometrics and the PhD program, I spent a little bit too much time in math, and it's not the most important thing.
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[SPEAKER_00]: It's not nothing, but it may be like fifth down the line
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[SPEAKER_01]: I forgot to read the disclaimer, I forgot to read the disclaimer.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So read the disclaimer now because that what you said is really invited, really, really important.
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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to go back into it.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So let me read the disclaimer first.
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[SPEAKER_01]: The information we're writing in this video is for educational and informational purpose only and does not constitute financial investment tax or legal advice.
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[SPEAKER_01]: The views of spreads are so low.
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[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, uh, these of the hosting guests, they're not a vice-tailer to your specific circumstances.
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[SPEAKER_01]: I'll invest in involves risk, including the loss of personal, consult a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So, that's my first time doing the disclaimer.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So, I want to come back on with because you mentioned something about math.
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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm actually in college for business management.
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[SPEAKER_01]: And I fell in my statistics class and it was like the, uh, uh, yeah, I think it was the statistics class.
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[SPEAKER_01]: You feel like, how did you feel like it happened?
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[SPEAKER_01]: So let's start again on the world.
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[SPEAKER_01]: However, learning how to look at the numbers and understanding the numbers is like, man, sometimes, I probably won't ever use this.
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[SPEAKER_01]: However, when I got into business, I started hearing the variations language, the standard deviation, I'm like, wait, hold on.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So this is important in business.
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[UNKNOWN]: Yeah, yeah.
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[SPEAKER_01]: that blew my mind.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So, since you have background in math and not you in the financial space, you're still dealing with numbers.
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[SPEAKER_01]: How are you able to transition to the entrepreneurship my sense that I've teached myself?
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[SPEAKER_00]: So that is a, I mean, that's a very different thing because the numbers, math, sometimes it's more about the relationships.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And if you understand those relationships and how things work is very helpful, but there is a difference between the teaching mindset and the business mindset.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe I'll handle those things separately.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So for example, one of the relationships.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Remember learning science class how a glass of water cools down as it evaporates, because the really hot pieces, the high energy particles, they're flying out of there and all the particles that left they're lower in the average.
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[SPEAKER_00]: We think of the temperature of the glass of water, like a bell curve, you chop off one end of the bell curve and the average moves.
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[SPEAKER_00]: There's a company I wrote about recently, it's a brand conglomerate
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[SPEAKER_00]: when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, they immediately stopped producing their least profitable skews.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Right, they immediately, they axed whole brands.
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[SPEAKER_00]: I think they, they might have fired, because they have been buying brands over time.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And they, they look through the brands and you know, they had, they had a lot of things that were cannibalistic, a lot of things that were competing with each other.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And so they ended entire brands.
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[SPEAKER_00]: They didn't even try to sell them.
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[SPEAKER_00]: They just ended them completely.
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[SPEAKER_00]: But when you chop off the least profitable part of the business, then that average gets to shift.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So now they're profit margins are way up.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So they act, forget what percentage.
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[SPEAKER_00]: But I think it was 60% of their brands.
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[SPEAKER_00]: They just chopped them right off.
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[SPEAKER_00]: But now they're profit margins are much better.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And now it's just a question of one, we'll see them return to growth again.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So those relationships, like knowing how a glass of water cools, as it evaporates, that is just a part of math and those relationships are helpful.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Now the difference between the academic world and the business world, you know, that's huge.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Because, um, and there's an expression about this that, uh, if you hear, if you hear hoof beats,
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[SPEAKER_00]: you don't immediately think unicorn, right?
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[SPEAKER_00]: If you hear hoof, you think, oh, there's probably a horse coming.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Academics, academics are always looking at these edge cases.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Where do all these rules break down?
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[SPEAKER_00]: And all the rules break at the extremes at these edge cases, at the unicorns?
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[SPEAKER_00]: And business is about the everyday normal basic stuff.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So business is not really thinking about unicorns nearly as much.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So they're looking at different places.
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[SPEAKER_00]: They're turning over different rocks.
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[SPEAKER_00]: They're just thinking different ways.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So there is a disconnect between academia and business.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And it's huge.
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[SPEAKER_00]: and I think in the business world, academic is kind of an insult, you know, and in the academic world, I don't think they think about business at all.
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[SPEAKER_00]: But I mean, they're both important, but they're totally different cultures, totally different mindsets.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And it was a pretty big shift, but you know, it's, you people are adaptable, people can adjust.
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[SPEAKER_01]: And I definitely agree, and even in your company's unemployed value, in a decent, and the unemployed poor, it was something something that caught my attention to like, well, how are you unemployed doing the business that you're elected to?
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[SPEAKER_01]: It's like, well, there's a story behind everything.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So how are you unemployed doing the business that you're doing around like the financial space?
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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I have had some of my subscribers tell me I should change the name to self-employed value dgin now, but because I, the nice thing about is I don't have a boss, I can't be fired, I've got 6,000 subscribers, and I try not to make them all too angry.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Sometimes you have to talk about politics and it affects the market and a lot of my subscribers are from New York and California where Silicon Valley and where the stock market is.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So I try and tread very lightly on anything that would make people angry enough to own unsubscribe.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And that's usually politics.
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[SPEAKER_00]: But sometimes I have to do devil's advocate and take these Trump policy changes as, you know, take a face value and see what the consequences are going to be.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So for example, the tariff liberation day, if we're really in some sort of a cold war with China.
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[SPEAKER_00]: which, you know, in Florida our entire citrus industry has been destroyed because of a virus that came from China and you read news articles in that every month there's a Chinese researcher in the US who's smuggling some sort of talks and some sort of fungus that could destroy a crop in the US.
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[SPEAKER_00]: I mean this is part of a total war campaign and it's destroyed the citrus industry in Florida.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So if we're really in a cold war with China,
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[SPEAKER_00]: It's perfectly reasonable for the U.S. to go to their allies and say everybody has to throw some money in the hat, and that means 10% tariffs.
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[SPEAKER_00]: But the press treats it like, you know, the United States is betrayed everyone that, you know, the framing and the news media is terrible.
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[SPEAKER_00]: But the reality is, like, look, this is a cold war.
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[SPEAKER_00]: This is a race.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And the United States does not want to do it alone.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So everybody throws some money in the hat.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And for 60 years, it's been the other way.
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[SPEAKER_00]: For 60 years, Europe has had 10% tariffs on us.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And we haven't had it on them.
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[SPEAKER_00]: As we were rebuilding Europe after World War II.
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[SPEAKER_00]: say okay you know the war is over you guys are rebuilt now the money flows the other way now you got to throw some money in the hat to win the new cold war and um that's a reasonable position that's not trump being some crazy lunatic but you know trying to try to take that side of the argument that could cost you some subscribers
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[SPEAKER_01]: I definitely agree, Justin Ferris.
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[SPEAKER_01]: Not a politics, it's not a politics podcast.
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[SPEAKER_01]: However, you just say something about how math and understanding financials is not that a couple of, it shouldn't be that complicated.
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[SPEAKER_01]: But now you have to do different type of research.
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[SPEAKER_01]: When they got into visas and start understanding what the podcast means, I was saying
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[SPEAKER_01]: It was around like editing, publishing, and then the skill behind them.
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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm like, well, what business am I actually in?
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[SPEAKER_01]: Well, category in my end.
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[SPEAKER_01]: When he hit me, he was like, podcast production unit, podcast production business.
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[SPEAKER_01]: Now, I have to do research around the podcast production.
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[SPEAKER_01]: Instead of editing, scheduling, things that nature is like, well, your research changed because yes, the financial has a lot of numbers in it.
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[SPEAKER_01]: However, the research is different.
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[SPEAKER_01]: you just display the importance of research.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So you're a couple of people understand the market based out your research.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and I think that's really what I do.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And I have to compete against the chat GPT though, because now I'm taking a lot of information and summarizing it, and that's what AI is doing.
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[SPEAKER_00]: But, and I also use AI myself, and I use some of those large language models, but
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[SPEAKER_00]: The reason why there's opportunity in the marketplace is because people disagree, and that's there's a fundamental disagreement there.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So for example, some people think that crocks is done growing, and I think that crocks still has growth in front of it.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And you know,
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[SPEAKER_00]: In areas where people disagree, and AI summary, probably is not going to be so helpful.
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[SPEAKER_00]: You can ask it to give you a bulkcase in a bear case, but there's still room for a human being there, at least for a couple more years.
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[SPEAKER_00]: We'll see what happens if AI gets us all ahead of the job.
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[SPEAKER_00]: I actually have, um,
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[SPEAKER_00]: I think we will reach some sort of a limit to what AI is able to do in AI is able to figure out it.
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[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it's going to do some very impressive things, but I think we're going to find out that there are limitations to that.
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[SPEAKER_00]: The technologists out there think that artificial intelligence is going to, you know, just really outpace and overtake human minds, and in a lot of ways it does, right, for recalling facts, you know, has access to all the facts and the universe.
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[SPEAKER_00]: But when there's disagreement, when there's judgment calls, I don't know if AI is ever really going to be able to do that sort of judgment.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And part of the reason for that is, and this is way, way, way down in the weeds of the philosophy of science.
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[SPEAKER_00]: We don't really know how judgment works.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Like if you've got two kinds of logic going on in your brain.
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[SPEAKER_00]: You've got inductive reasoning and deductive reasoning, right?
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[SPEAKER_00]: So inductive reasoning, you have this idea of black swans.
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[SPEAKER_00]: In Europe, all swans are white, and all the biology books say that swans are white, explorers get to Australia, and swans are black there.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So suddenly, everything you thought you knew against reversed by a counter example, you take these specifics, you try to make a rule.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Deductive reasoning is, you know, if you have a rule, and if you're applying it, excuse me.
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[SPEAKER_00]: That's nice.
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[SPEAKER_00]: If you have a rule and you're applying it, if the rule, if your logic is sound, and your premises are true, the conclusions are necessarily true.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And that's what things like coding, formal logic gates, and or statements, if then statements.
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[SPEAKER_00]: That's deductive reasoning.
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[SPEAKER_00]: We don't know how our brain handles it when those two things disagree.
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[SPEAKER_00]: If deductive reasoning is telling you one thing, and deductive reasoning is telling you a different thing, we don't really know how our brain clears that.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So I think when it comes down to judgment calls, I don't know if it's gonna AI will never be able to solve it or if they'll solve it in 10 years or five years or two years.
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[SPEAKER_00]: But I'm a little bit more, I'm optimistic at all the business cases people are gonna find for AI.
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[SPEAKER_00]: but it's almost like when it comes to CPUs for processors.
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[SPEAKER_00]: We had this Moore's law.
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[SPEAKER_00]: It was getting faster, it was getting faster.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And then finally, they got it to such a size that the electrons as they were moving through the processor.
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[SPEAKER_00]: it would actually jump positions and that was the smallest you could get it say okay well we can't make processes any smaller now so if we're going to improve we have to use a totally different technology they got to go you know 3D or they got to use quantum computing so that that technology could its limit and we got to look in other places so you know it maybe it takes 5 or 10 years but AI is going to hit a limit and we're going to have to look other places but it's you know there's going to be a limit to it someday
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[SPEAKER_01]: I appreciate you bringing back Crocs though because I wanted to ask you because when you explained that he was like something about Crocs, a lot of people undervalue different businesses that you look into and maybe think about how history and pieces so back in the day, Crocs was a known, and I mean fast words, the history, Cross come out with a little design on there with the low goals and things in their nature, I was like, huh, what do you think about history and pieces so?
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[SPEAKER_00]: Well, with a situation like Crocs,
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[SPEAKER_00]: What's funny is I think a lot of it has to do with the people that work in finance, right?
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[SPEAKER_00]: The people that work in finance, and they they pitch this company to their portfolio manager, you take a company like Peloton, right?
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[SPEAKER_00]: Peloton, it was marketed heavily to people that live in Manhattan and people that work in finance, so the people in the stock market were users.
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[SPEAKER_00]: But the people that work in the stock market, they can't go to work wearing crocs, right?
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[SPEAKER_00]: There it's outside of what they're going to use, and they kind of look down on it.
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[SPEAKER_00]: But when they get home from work, their wife and kids are wearing crocs.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So it's kind of funny.
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[SPEAKER_00]: It's really hated from a fashion perspective, by people that work in finance.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's part of what's led to the misprasing.
17:09.118 --> 17:14.927
[SPEAKER_00]: That because people that work in finance don't like it as a product, that shown up in the stock price.
17:14.907 --> 17:19.093
[SPEAKER_00]: And as long as they're generating cash and they're buying back stock, that's fantastic.
17:19.133 --> 17:21.537
[SPEAKER_00]: It's cheap, it makes the share buybacks more effective.
17:22.138 --> 17:27.546
[SPEAKER_00]: And at some point, if I'm right and they return to growth and they're buying back stock, then the stock price will catch up.
17:27.626 --> 17:32.313
[SPEAKER_00]: At some point, you give it enough years of showing growth, of having profits and buying back stock.
17:32.774 --> 17:37.101
[SPEAKER_00]: At some point, people that work in finance just have to say, okay, well, I guess this product is around for a while.
17:37.141 --> 17:40.746
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not just a fad, it's not just a, no, not just a temporary thing.
17:41.367 --> 17:47.901
[SPEAKER_01]: And you said earlier then, this agreement makes a market, right?
17:48.823 --> 17:53.533
[SPEAKER_00]: The only reason there's opportunities, the only reason why the price is wrong is because people disagree.
17:54.435 --> 18:00.287
[SPEAKER_00]: Some people call it uncertainty, some people like to focus on the disagreement side of things, but it's really about disagreement.
18:00.503 --> 18:06.789
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, right now, some people think, you know, Elon Musk is about to have an IPO for SpaceX.
18:07.610 --> 18:12.254
[SPEAKER_00]: And Elon Musk is talking about he wants to deploy data centers in space.
18:13.295 --> 18:17.219
[SPEAKER_00]: And people that love Elon Musk say, you know, hey, this is a great idea he's going to do it.
18:17.279 --> 18:19.741
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, look, he made electric vehicles.
18:19.821 --> 18:20.942
[SPEAKER_00]: He made a new car company.
18:21.002 --> 18:24.886
[SPEAKER_00]: People you say, and even more in Buffett used to use that as an example.
18:25.166 --> 18:29.430
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, the car companies would have this defensive note because he was going to make a new car company these days.
18:29.410 --> 18:32.997
[SPEAKER_00]: right you'd have to start from scratch and create so much and he did it.
18:33.257 --> 18:44.398
[SPEAKER_00]: So people that support you on Musk wouldn't want to bet against him but there's a lot of people online right now say like this is a pipe dream he's never going to have you know a hundred gigawatts a year deployed of data centers in space.
18:45.205 --> 18:46.947
[SPEAKER_00]: And there's a big disagreement there.
18:47.407 --> 18:48.608
[SPEAKER_00]: But you read the news.
18:48.728 --> 18:53.172
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think right now, six US states have bands on new data center construction.
18:53.673 --> 18:57.756
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you can't build data centers on land, where are you going to build them?
18:57.776 --> 19:04.442
[SPEAKER_00]: Hatch is the not a Google has experimented with underwater data centers, because you get the free cooling of the ocean.
19:05.183 --> 19:06.664
[SPEAKER_00]: But you know, salt curodes, everything.
19:06.684 --> 19:09.046
[SPEAKER_00]: So maybe the data centers are going to be floating on the water.
19:09.987 --> 19:13.170
[SPEAKER_00]: But Elon Musk thinks he can do it in other space,
19:13.505 --> 19:24.697
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, Elon Musk makes a lot of promises and, you know, he, he said full self driving would be next year, about for about five years, but full self driving is pretty much here, it finally arrived.
19:24.717 --> 19:29.862
[SPEAKER_00]: It took a little longer, but now everybody's happy with their Tesla's being driven by computer.
19:29.982 --> 19:38.331
[SPEAKER_00]: So, when there's so much love and hate for someone, there's big disagreement there, and SpaceX and Tesla are a good example of the disagreement in the market.
19:39.323 --> 19:45.851
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so you say the disagreement causes the market to go or the market to that's what makes the opportunity.
19:45.871 --> 19:47.213
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what makes the opportunity.
19:47.233 --> 19:47.433
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
19:47.834 --> 19:57.045
[SPEAKER_00]: If you're right about it, right, if you think that Elon Musk will never make data centers in space and you're right, you can make money on that.
19:57.546 --> 20:01.411
[SPEAKER_00]: If you think that Elon Musk will make data centers in space and you're right, you can make money on that.
20:01.531 --> 20:04.234
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's what makes the opportunity is the disagreement.
20:04.484 --> 20:11.733
[SPEAKER_01]: So either way, you can make money on the painted up on and you're doing a research upon the sati you want to lean upon.
20:11.753 --> 20:12.454
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, that's right.
20:12.975 --> 20:18.782
[SPEAKER_00]: If you can dig into things and think, you know, hey, I see a different future than people.
20:18.902 --> 20:32.820
[SPEAKER_00]: And this happened to me with, so when I first started getting into investing, I just took the narrative that a lot of people had at the time, which was that electric vehicles are gonna take over everything.
20:33.526 --> 20:38.492
[SPEAKER_00]: And I was, you know, digging them to one company at a time, and I'm looking into mining companies.
20:39.333 --> 20:45.780
[SPEAKER_00]: And one of the most famous mine developers in the world said, look, there's not going to be electric vehicles.
20:46.341 --> 20:51.747
[SPEAKER_00]: And the reason is, I mine nickel, and I can't mine that much nickel.
20:52.488 --> 20:55.011
[SPEAKER_00]: If you gave me an unlimited amount of money,
20:56.763 --> 20:58.646
[SPEAKER_00]: I couldn't get you that much nickel in five years.
20:58.707 --> 20:59.468
[SPEAKER_00]: It just can't be done.
21:00.009 --> 21:01.151
[SPEAKER_00]: We haven't found the deposits.
21:01.231 --> 21:03.355
[SPEAKER_00]: We haven't proven that it's all this stuff takes time.
21:04.197 --> 21:13.253
[SPEAKER_00]: So all these 2035 electric vehicle targets, the people that actually provide the nickel for the batteries were saying that cannot happen.
21:14.315 --> 21:18.763
[SPEAKER_00]: So I took that and I invested in an offshore drilling company.
21:19.204 --> 21:20.847
[SPEAKER_00]: The idea was, look,
21:20.827 --> 21:27.216
[SPEAKER_00]: If we need more oil, right, this sector is so beaten down, it's so cheap, it's priced for obsolete, since it's priced as if it's going away.
21:28.197 --> 21:41.236
[SPEAKER_00]: And the stock price of that oil drilling company went from $2 up to $8 and then the oil price has been low, it fell back down to $2 again and now it's back up to about $5.5 and a half dollar.
21:41.356 --> 21:45.602
[SPEAKER_00]: So, these narratives come and go about how much oil we're going to need.
21:45.582 --> 21:50.631
[SPEAKER_00]: But there was really a moment when it seems like everybody thought would be only on electric vehicles.
21:51.412 --> 21:56.701
[SPEAKER_00]: And the manufacturers and the miners were saying there's not enough metal for that, there is just not enough metal.
21:56.842 --> 22:05.076
[SPEAKER_00]: So there are chances where you can do the work, find where people disagree, take a side and you can be right on it, and that's fantastic.
22:05.866 --> 22:13.901
[SPEAKER_01]: and that's interesting because you talk about the journey of your seven how you go from an employee, unemployed to step-in-employed.
22:14.322 --> 22:20.052
[SPEAKER_01]: So now what is actually like, what was your biggest failure when you first started the first guidance on your new show?
22:20.894 --> 22:23.098
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, um, I mean,
22:23.517 --> 22:26.802
[SPEAKER_00]: the whole journey of creating my sub-stack and writing.
22:27.903 --> 22:30.847
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think there's any noticeable failures within that.
22:30.907 --> 22:43.585
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the failure was when I went from being a university professor to filling out a bunch of job applications and trying to find a job while at the same time artificial intelligence is destroying the whole white collar or landscape.
22:43.801 --> 22:52.878
[SPEAKER_00]: So that was a rough moment, you know, it drives you crazy, writing resumes and writing cover letters and filling them out and submitting them.
22:52.918 --> 22:58.549
[SPEAKER_00]: And also, I'm from a world where people would post the job opening and they get six resumes.
22:58.669 --> 23:00.914
[SPEAKER_00]: Now that post the job opening, they get thousands online.
23:00.934 --> 23:05.843
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just, it's just so easy to, you know, apply to everything.
23:06.515 --> 23:14.565
[SPEAKER_00]: And then if you don't know what kind of software their HR department uses to skim resumes for buzzwords, you don't get to the top of the stack.
23:14.725 --> 23:15.886
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a totally different world.
23:15.926 --> 23:24.717
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm so old when I applied for jobs, it was in person with a pen and a piece of paper, and you'd meet somebody they would shake your hand, and I didn't fantastic in that world.
23:24.777 --> 23:25.057
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.
23:25.177 --> 23:26.559
[SPEAKER_00]: People always like me when I meet them.
23:27.580 --> 23:34.328
[SPEAKER_00]: So through that process of filling out application and for application application, I mean, that is me.
23:34.308 --> 23:34.949
[SPEAKER_00]: estimate.
23:35.329 --> 23:36.611
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, even how many I filled out?
23:36.651 --> 23:37.251
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes.
23:37.452 --> 23:40.715
[SPEAKER_00]: I probably, I probably got burnout after about 150 maybe.
23:40.735 --> 23:44.780
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, some people do thousands.
23:45.420 --> 23:49.405
[SPEAKER_00]: But that was when just on a, on a, on a long, just for fun.
23:49.685 --> 23:55.392
[SPEAKER_00]: I said, I have to write something other than cover letters and resumes, so I wrote some articles on Substack.
23:55.412 --> 24:03.741
[SPEAKER_00]: And my third article got retweeted and 15,000 people saw it.
24:03.721 --> 24:10.471
[SPEAKER_00]: So my moment of failure was hitting the job market, and it wasn't even that I was unemployable.
24:10.531 --> 24:21.147
[SPEAKER_00]: I could find a job with a national search, but one of the problems is when you have two people who are married and they both have advanced degrees, you get limited geographically pretty fast.
24:21.187 --> 24:23.991
[SPEAKER_00]: My wife has a job here in Tampa.
24:24.123 --> 24:37.358
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, I searched for, you know, who wants somebody with a master's in economics and was in the PhD program in finance and happens to be hiring in June and things like that and you start running that options pretty quick.
24:37.678 --> 24:37.838
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.
24:37.878 --> 24:43.464
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's kind of funny that the higher you go in formal education, the more limited the job searches.
24:43.925 --> 24:49.251
[SPEAKER_00]: So I mean, I know I could have found a job if I did a national search, but, you know, my wife has her career here as well.
24:49.351 --> 24:51.193
[SPEAKER_00]: So you get pretty limited.
24:51.832 --> 24:54.767
[SPEAKER_01]: And what is it seeing on the qualified?
24:55.571 --> 24:58.264
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, yeah, it's maybe over credentialed, maybe.
24:59.028 --> 24:59.631
[SPEAKER_01]: Ah, man.
25:01.096 --> 25:15.490
[SPEAKER_01]: So we, you said over-predenture, which of some of my mom has nine degrees, and now that I'm in college to get my degree and things in the nature, I see the difference between being educated and not being educated, not the fact that it's something wrong with being educated.
25:15.530 --> 25:27.222
[SPEAKER_01]: It's kind of like, um, what's called, I don't know the right terminology, but it's like, you get educated and now it's like, it's used to get you rather than for you, yeah.
25:27.202 --> 25:27.943
[SPEAKER_00]: Absolutely.
25:28.023 --> 25:33.929
[SPEAKER_00]: And I mean, part of it is because the quality of education has fallen so much.
25:34.890 --> 25:38.013
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I went to college in 1999.
25:38.113 --> 25:42.337
[SPEAKER_00]: I took calculus three differential equations before it got watered down.
25:42.958 --> 25:48.684
[SPEAKER_00]: And I know what math I used to do when I see what math the undergraduate is complaining about and it's a totally different night and death.
25:48.704 --> 25:55.791
[SPEAKER_00]: The quality has fallen so much.
25:57.610 --> 26:02.500
[SPEAKER_00]: When you're trying to serve two masters, the mission statement can get confused that it can get lost.
26:02.981 --> 26:09.774
[SPEAKER_00]: We saw this in the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 is a house something that you live in or is a house in investment.
26:10.255 --> 26:17.610
[SPEAKER_00]: And if people start getting confused about those two things, it's both, but when you start getting a little confused, things you get problems.
26:18.383 --> 26:35.852
[SPEAKER_00]: Higher education started out as this is a place for children of wealthy families to become Plato's Philosopher King right that's what how education started but now it's also trying to fit in this is a place you get vocational training to have a career path.
26:36.676 --> 26:39.320
[SPEAKER_00]: and now you got government subsidized loans for both.
26:39.821 --> 26:47.653
[SPEAKER_00]: So you have a lot of confusion about, you know, am I supposed to be, you know, a wealthy kid whose futures they can care of, because I inherit the family business anyway.
26:48.214 --> 26:52.901
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm gonna spend four years drinking and studying philosophy and becoming Plato's philosopher king.
26:53.903 --> 26:59.832
[SPEAKER_00]: Or do I need to come here, learn a specific skill set so I can hit the job market and find a job.
27:00.200 --> 27:04.067
[SPEAKER_00]: And you then give them, you know, 3% subsidized student loans on top of it.
27:04.327 --> 27:10.859
[SPEAKER_00]: And then you have people from poor backgrounds that study to become a lost for King and can't find a job and it's very tragic.
27:10.980 --> 27:17.812
[SPEAKER_00]: So when you've got this confusion of purpose and you've lost your mission statement, you could have a lot of problems there.
27:17.972 --> 27:21.178
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think higher education sort of lost its mission statement.
27:21.310 --> 27:23.653
[SPEAKER_01]: So I want to go off-screw the format that you receive.
27:23.993 --> 27:25.535
[SPEAKER_01]: You say you format when I'm going off-screw.
27:25.575 --> 27:29.239
[SPEAKER_01]: So what I do when I tip the same one off-screw about action, three tips.
27:29.379 --> 27:40.933
[SPEAKER_01]: Like if I was somebody new get into finances and like I have no idea I have no experience but I color Steven and I actually want to three tips to get into finance to learn more about investing and prepare for my future.
27:40.953 --> 27:42.795
[SPEAKER_01]: What are three tips that you can share with me?
27:43.045 --> 27:49.214
[SPEAKER_00]: So, I'm not talking about a young person trying to find a job in finance, but somebody for their personal finance is just getting started, right?
27:49.254 --> 27:49.935
[SPEAKER_00]: So, for your business?
27:50.335 --> 27:51.256
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, for your business.
27:52.238 --> 28:00.910
[SPEAKER_00]: So, what I look at is, when I taught finance, I would take the students and I would have them write out in the spreadsheet sort of a retirement plan.
28:01.050 --> 28:05.817
[SPEAKER_00]: I'd talk to them about, you look at your whole life cycle, right?
28:05.837 --> 28:11.905
[SPEAKER_00]: You're working from the time you're maybe 25 to 65, you've got these 40 years of work.
28:12.442 --> 28:15.385
[SPEAKER_00]: That has to pay for your own kids.
28:15.425 --> 28:16.446
[SPEAKER_00]: You got to raise your own kids.
28:16.746 --> 28:22.372
[SPEAKER_00]: And you have to be able to set aside enough money to get you from 65 to 85.
28:23.453 --> 28:26.616
[SPEAKER_00]: And then if medicine gets a little stronger, you know, to get you to 95, maybe.
28:27.156 --> 28:31.541
[SPEAKER_00]: So you're going to work for 40 years, but you also have to fund yourself for 20 or 30.
28:32.902 --> 28:38.027
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you have to get your purchasing power from the time you're working, to the time you're not working,
28:39.188 --> 28:41.910
[SPEAKER_00]: How much do you think you have to set aside at every paycheck?
28:41.930 --> 28:46.514
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you're only working for 40 years, and you're gonna not be working 20 or 30 years.
28:46.675 --> 28:49.257
[SPEAKER_00]: How much do you have to set aside at every paycheck?
28:49.277 --> 28:58.525
[SPEAKER_00]: And when you frame it like that, people think, you know, hey, you know, maybe setting aside 500 bucks a month, something like, you know, a mid-sized car payment.
28:59.626 --> 29:01.628
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe that's about reasonable, you know?
29:01.648 --> 29:02.728
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe that's not too much.
29:02.949 --> 29:04.610
[SPEAKER_00]: So, the first thing is you gotta save.
29:05.291 --> 29:09.094
[SPEAKER_00]: You gotta put some money away for the rainy day.
29:09.327 --> 29:37.984
[SPEAKER_00]: you can't live hand to mouth like a hunter gatherer you can't spend everything you make because you've got decades that you have to fund yourself when you're not working or you want to work from ever you want to be like a 75-year-old Walmart reader and I don't think I don't think that's plan A for most people so you have to save and saving is not fun right that money is burning a hole in your pocket you want to spend it so what I tell young people
29:38.318 --> 29:46.930
[SPEAKER_00]: And this might not be, you know, the best compounder it might not be tax-efficient, but if you're young, I want you to focus on dividend paying stocks.
29:47.832 --> 29:55.523
[SPEAKER_00]: And even though I try and teach about how powerful compound interest is, what I want young people to do is to buy dividend paying stocks.
29:56.504 --> 30:02.773
[SPEAKER_00]: Have those dividends get swept into their checking account, where they're going to spend it on their debit card.
30:03.023 --> 30:07.547
[SPEAKER_00]: And then every time that gets swept in, make sure they have an alert set up on their phone.
30:08.328 --> 30:10.289
[SPEAKER_00]: I want their pocket to ding into buzz.
30:10.510 --> 30:13.512
[SPEAKER_00]: When it says, hey, you've got a $23 dividend from the snockey loan.
30:13.552 --> 30:16.475
[SPEAKER_00]: I want their pocket to ding and buzz about it and I want them to spend it.
30:17.676 --> 30:22.740
[SPEAKER_00]: Because you need that psychological reinforcement that there's cheese at the end of the maze.
30:23.801 --> 30:25.242
[SPEAKER_00]: Most people go to work.
30:25.963 --> 30:27.424
[SPEAKER_00]: They have a 401k program.
30:28.225 --> 30:32.929
[SPEAKER_00]: They withhold the most that they can get matching on
30:33.027 --> 30:34.670
[SPEAKER_00]: And they don't think about it for 40 years.
30:35.632 --> 30:38.257
[SPEAKER_00]: And they're not consciously a part of the system.
30:38.698 --> 30:40.341
[SPEAKER_00]: They're not consciously a part of capitalism.
30:40.401 --> 30:41.583
[SPEAKER_00]: In their mind, they're an employee.
30:42.204 --> 30:47.835
[SPEAKER_00]: And they hope that their employer matching 401k contribution will take care of them for 30 years.
30:47.915 --> 30:49.117
[SPEAKER_00]: But they've never calculated it.
30:49.137 --> 30:50.059
[SPEAKER_00]: They've never looked at it.
30:50.119 --> 30:51.101
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not in their mind.
30:51.382 --> 30:52.704
[SPEAKER_00]: They're not present for it.
30:53.025 --> 30:54.748
[SPEAKER_00]: They're their own autopilot.
30:55.252 --> 31:06.092
[SPEAKER_00]: If you start putting money in an account, buying dividend paying stocks, having those dividends, swept into your check in account, having it ding and buzz in your pocket, you've got 23 bucks, you've got 35 bucks.
31:07.534 --> 31:09.117
[SPEAKER_00]: An amazing thing happens in your mind.
31:09.879 --> 31:12.343
[SPEAKER_00]: Suddenly, you're not rolling the boat by yourself.
31:13.084 --> 31:17.833
[SPEAKER_00]: Suddenly, somebody, you're ownership of the capital stock, it's working along with you.
31:17.915 --> 31:22.582
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, in first, you know, you get your first dividend payment and it's like, okay, you know, 20 bucks.
31:22.643 --> 31:27.530
[SPEAKER_00]: This can maybe cover the the water bill, maybe not it takes a while.
31:27.611 --> 31:28.973
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe it covers going out to lunch.
31:29.033 --> 31:32.579
[SPEAKER_00]: She said, hey, I got my dividend check in my, I got this dividends open to my account.
31:32.639 --> 31:35.383
[SPEAKER_00]: That pays for lunch, you know, that pays for a drink at a bar.
31:36.393 --> 31:40.659
[SPEAKER_00]: But that starts reinforcing those positive neurotransmitters in your brain.
31:40.859 --> 31:43.582
[SPEAKER_00]: And you start realizing, well, there's, there's cheese at the end of the maze.
31:44.263 --> 31:47.007
[SPEAKER_00]: And you start getting more excited about putting money in your stock account.
31:47.027 --> 31:49.230
[SPEAKER_00]: You start getting more excited about buying dividends stocks.
31:49.450 --> 31:49.590
[SPEAKER_00]: Right?
31:49.610 --> 31:53.015
[SPEAKER_00]: And then suddenly you get a dividend payment one day and it's enough to cover your electric bill.
31:53.395 --> 31:57.080
[SPEAKER_00]: And you're like, wow, you know, this is, I'm not rolling the boat all by myself.
31:57.120 --> 31:58.422
[SPEAKER_00]: But you do it for a few years longer.
31:58.442 --> 32:02.147
[SPEAKER_00]: You get a dividend payment, like, big enough to cover your car note.
32:02.262 --> 32:04.926
[SPEAKER_00]: And then it really feels like you're not growing the boat all by yourself.
32:05.567 --> 32:07.329
[SPEAKER_00]: And that process takes a few years.
32:08.190 --> 32:21.469
[SPEAKER_00]: And at some point, as you get more involved, as it becomes more fun for you, as you get excited about it, you start learning that dividend companies, there might be better companies out there, there might be companies that are growing faster, there might be companies that are better suited for you.
32:21.489 --> 32:26.076
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, and you get all these tax benefits, you can put it in a Roth IRA, things like that.
32:26.056 --> 32:46.596
[SPEAKER_00]: but I think the first step is getting those positive neurotransmitters in your brain, getting that serotonin and dopamine, having your pocket buzz and digging and making sure that you're having fun, you're not ruling the boat by yourself, you're not just putting money behind a tax penalty paywall for your 401k because you're supposed to, because your parents told you to do it.
32:46.576 --> 33:04.599
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, it's becoming an active part of the capital market, it's becoming an active part in your own future, you know, being the master of your own destiny, taking a conscious active role in it, and having your pocket dingin buzz every time a stock pays you a $20 dividend is a really good way to do that.
33:06.181 --> 33:07.242
[SPEAKER_01]: That is the great point.
33:07.262 --> 33:12.128
[SPEAKER_01]: So just to recap, say, invest in dividend stocks and what was the last one?
33:12.175 --> 33:19.505
[SPEAKER_00]: make sure those dividends are swept into your checking account, into your debit card and make sure your pocket dings and buzzes.
33:19.545 --> 33:21.728
[SPEAKER_00]: Make sure you have some sort of alert turned on your phone.
33:22.228 --> 33:27.756
[SPEAKER_00]: That's going to make all the difference because you start getting these these messages and their first one will feel kind of silly.
33:28.377 --> 33:31.261
[SPEAKER_00]: By the time you've gotten 10 of them, it's like an old friend.
33:31.361 --> 33:34.485
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like you come home from work and you're going to retrieve her is happy to see you.
33:34.565 --> 33:42.115
[SPEAKER_00]: It's it starts reinforcing that pathway in your brain and you start having more fun about it.
33:42.584 --> 33:58.821
[SPEAKER_00]: what else can I do that's going to pay me a dividend this month what what you know what I've been in a lot of jobs and the boss says okay who wants overtime this week and nobody raises their hand because they don't really care you know they at work you're like well work work sucks my boss is a jerk I don't want to be here
33:59.476 --> 34:04.410
[SPEAKER_00]: But when you know an extra couple hundred bucks, you can do something with it, right?
34:04.450 --> 34:09.304
[SPEAKER_00]: You can put another 200 bucks deployed into the capital stock to row in the vote along with you.
34:09.966 --> 34:11.530
[SPEAKER_00]: Suddenly your hand goes up, right?
34:11.550 --> 34:14.920
[SPEAKER_00]: When your boss asks who wants to be the team lead for this project?
34:14.900 --> 34:17.246
[SPEAKER_00]: and you know it's kind of a hassle I want to do it.
34:17.286 --> 34:24.084
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe your hands start going up because you say hey look if I get that promotion earlier I can start putting more money into my and to my stock brokerage account.
34:24.545 --> 34:31.423
[SPEAKER_00]: I can start getting more people in this boat rolling alongside with me and I'm not alone on this thing so it is really important as I think psychologically.
34:31.538 --> 34:36.644
[SPEAKER_00]: to start making sure you get to feel those dividends to get paid to spend the money to enjoy the money.
34:37.144 --> 34:38.666
[SPEAKER_00]: So you're not rolling the boat all by yourself.
34:39.046 --> 34:52.841
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you start that young, I mean the world's yours because if most people that is do the 401k matching, it goes behind a black box and they never see it or look at it or think about it ever again.
34:52.881 --> 34:54.643
[SPEAKER_00]: And they hope.
34:54.623 --> 34:57.789
[SPEAKER_00]: that the system is organized in such a way as they're going to be taken care of.
34:58.330 --> 35:01.115
[SPEAKER_00]: But they've never put in the effort to make sure of that.
35:01.155 --> 35:06.445
[SPEAKER_00]: And when I was a financial advisor at Merrill Lynch, the number of people who hit retirement age, right?
35:06.465 --> 35:08.109
[SPEAKER_00]: I think, you know, they turn 65.
35:08.149 --> 35:09.932
[SPEAKER_00]: They retire from their work.
35:10.216 --> 35:15.241
[SPEAKER_00]: they get an envelope from their 401K company, and it's like surprise, here's where you're at.
35:15.421 --> 35:19.005
[SPEAKER_00]: But you haven't thought about this 20 years ago, you didn't think about this 30 years ago.
35:19.505 --> 35:21.347
[SPEAKER_00]: No, this is the first they're thinking about it.
35:21.367 --> 35:23.769
[SPEAKER_00]: They just rely on the system that they care of them.
35:24.470 --> 35:31.336
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's terrifying because this is a high trust society, and there are good rules in place.
35:31.377 --> 35:35.440
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, we put it in a target date mutual fund, you'll do okay.
35:36.241 --> 35:38.063
[SPEAKER_00]: But that is a lot of trust.
35:38.296 --> 35:44.675
[SPEAKER_00]: to have, you know, your last 20 or 30 years on this earth and to have never thought about how you're going to feed yourself or clothe yourself.
35:44.895 --> 35:52.879
[SPEAKER_00]: And as the baby boomers of such a large generation, you are getting this situation in the senior care facilities.
35:52.977 --> 35:56.963
[SPEAKER_00]: that the quality between the highest and the lowest is such a huge gap in quality.
35:57.103 --> 36:00.548
[SPEAKER_00]: And I've gotten on, she had a stroke recently, and she's not of means.
36:00.588 --> 36:03.573
[SPEAKER_00]: She can't pay for the $7,000 a month, nice facility.
36:04.254 --> 36:16.572
[SPEAKER_00]: So she's in a facility where, you know what, when it's a holiday, a lot of those nurses call in sick, and if they're short staff, you're in this, you know, see elder care facility, you're in the buzzer for help and nobody comes.
36:17.125 --> 36:22.980
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, for hours and hours at a time, because it's Saturday and they call them sick, or they're short-staffed, or it's a holiday.
36:23.040 --> 36:27.071
[SPEAKER_00]: It's the same Patrick's Day and two or three of them call them sick at the same day, right?
36:27.091 --> 36:33.447
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you're, you know, if you can't got a bed, if you have mobility issues, if you're really relying on that elder care facility.
36:33.427 --> 36:39.697
[SPEAKER_00]: Having an extra 7,000 bucks a month to pay for the nice one is, it's a buy is a lot of dignity.
36:40.478 --> 36:49.512
[SPEAKER_00]: So I just, people that have never thought about it their whole lives, I think they're in for a rude surprise when they see these facilities and how expensive they are.
36:50.217 --> 37:07.264
[SPEAKER_01]: Wow, yeah, I definitely agree because I attended this this course was called Mom House and they explained how like when a person get older they came and said to go to house the board or something now to have to set a house going to the facility when they explained everything the facility itself was really expensive
37:07.244 --> 37:11.628
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you don't have nothing to sell, debt out, she's not even on a table.
37:12.029 --> 37:14.051
[SPEAKER_01]: So I do want to talk about things for sheners.
37:14.071 --> 37:16.173
[SPEAKER_01]: So I do want to talk about unemployed value, D.G.
37:16.193 --> 37:18.054
[SPEAKER_01]: And like, what's the business behind that?
37:18.074 --> 37:23.199
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, who are you serving, wish a customer, then, how do you go about the business side of it?
37:23.219 --> 37:29.025
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so I'm writing about small companies that I think are mispriced.
37:29.265 --> 37:30.306
[SPEAKER_00]: I think you're going to do really well.
37:31.928 --> 37:34.350
[SPEAKER_00]: But it's some of them, you know, sometimes I'm wrong.
37:34.730 --> 37:36.492
[SPEAKER_00]: Some of them do go bankrupt.
37:36.725 --> 37:42.112
[SPEAKER_00]: But when you find a company that if when I'm right, you make 500%.
37:42.212 --> 37:51.384
[SPEAKER_00]: But when I'm wrong, right, if a company goes to zero, you put $100 in a company, and it goes bankrupt, that $100 is gone, it's gone to zero.
37:52.365 --> 37:55.829
[SPEAKER_00]: But if you put $100 in a company, it's a five bag or it goes to $500.
37:56.891 --> 38:05.702
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you're right half the time, half the time you turn a hundred bucks in a 250, or you turn half the time you
38:06.003 --> 38:07.826
[SPEAKER_00]: That's not so bad, that's a pretty good return.
38:08.508 --> 38:12.435
[SPEAKER_00]: So the D-Gen part of it is some of these companies do go bankrupt.
38:12.475 --> 38:15.300
[SPEAKER_00]: Some of them, they're mispriced because they have a pretty high debt burden.
38:15.641 --> 38:17.484
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm saying, look, I think interest rates are falling.
38:17.504 --> 38:19.408
[SPEAKER_00]: I think they're going to be able to refinance, I think they're fine.
38:19.989 --> 38:21.632
[SPEAKER_00]: But sometimes I'm wrong about that.
38:22.270 --> 38:27.479
[SPEAKER_00]: The people of my target audience is people who are actively looking for this stuff.
38:27.740 --> 38:32.708
[SPEAKER_00]: People who used to be the sport of gentlemen was horses and falcons.
38:33.510 --> 38:36.535
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think the Kennedys, they still keep falcons.
38:36.615 --> 38:43.367
[SPEAKER_00]: I think in some of the Saudi princes too, falconry is still sort of a sport of princes.
38:43.347 --> 38:53.001
[SPEAKER_00]: I think much more than that now, it's predicting the stock market, finding these mispriced companies, being an active participant in it, and it was really popular in the 1990s.
38:53.481 --> 38:55.905
[SPEAKER_00]: You go back to engineering firms in the 1990s.
38:55.985 --> 39:00.271
[SPEAKER_00]: Everybody would be standing around the water cooler in the office building talking about which tech stock they're buying.
39:01.252 --> 39:04.697
[SPEAKER_00]: And after the dot com crash, that whole culture disappeared.
39:05.521 --> 39:14.735
[SPEAKER_00]: But with the coronavirus lockdowns and the Robin Hood Zero Commission trading, right, the payment for order flow, it's become a thing again.
39:14.855 --> 39:20.624
[SPEAKER_00]: It's suddenly become popular again for young people to talk about which stock to their mind in the stock market.
39:20.644 --> 39:24.610
[SPEAKER_00]: They're buying Tesla, they're buying Underarmor, they're buying Lulu Lemon.
39:24.792 --> 39:28.999
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that culture is really healthy, as definitely a lot better than betting on the Super Bowl.
39:29.840 --> 39:38.154
[SPEAKER_00]: So my audience tends to be people that we're working in the 90s that we're in that culture where this is sort of the gentleman's sport, right?
39:38.174 --> 39:40.017
[SPEAKER_00]: We're picking which companies are going to be successful.
39:40.678 --> 39:45.926
[SPEAKER_00]: And the young people from COVID that they don't have as much confidence in the system.
39:46.287 --> 39:50.614
[SPEAKER_00]: They don't think getting 8% compounded for 40 years is going to take care of them.
39:50.594 --> 39:52.776
[SPEAKER_00]: They think, you know, and they're hearing this in the news.
39:52.796 --> 39:56.280
[SPEAKER_00]: They say, oh, you've got to make money in the next five years before artificial intelligence takes your job.
39:57.101 --> 40:01.085
[SPEAKER_00]: So they want that stock that can be a five-bagger or a 10-bagger or a 20-bagger.
40:01.105 --> 40:04.608
[SPEAKER_00]: So my audience right now is 60-year-olds and 20-year-olds.
40:05.089 --> 40:06.570
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's kind of hollow in the middle, right?
40:06.590 --> 40:09.393
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot of 40-year-olds that aren't thinking about their future.
40:09.453 --> 40:15.319
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's a little bit sad, but that's my market right now is the 60-year-olds and the 20-year-olds.
40:15.923 --> 40:17.167
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, random question.
40:17.488 --> 40:18.511
[SPEAKER_01]: Is my phone right there?
40:18.671 --> 40:20.958
[SPEAKER_01]: Is it a phone just, there's leaving right here?
40:21.961 --> 40:22.784
[SPEAKER_01]: A phone?
40:22.804 --> 40:23.647
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, yeah, it's there.
40:23.667 --> 40:24.268
[SPEAKER_01]: Your phone, yeah.
40:24.870 --> 40:25.733
[SPEAKER_01]: I can grab that for you.
40:26.897 --> 40:28.060
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you, thank you, thank you.
40:28.951 --> 40:30.033
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you, thank you, thank you.
40:30.694 --> 40:45.181
[SPEAKER_01]: So, and I appreciate you sharing that because one thing that I've learned while being a business, even though all the lean smart and incubated program here at the Love Center, is that you have to understand the business side of the creative, the creative I can do.
40:45.221 --> 40:48.447
[SPEAKER_01]: Like I can move my guy, I can have the conversation, I can do all these different things.
40:48.727 --> 40:50.510
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's like, well, what's the business side behind?
40:50.550 --> 40:53.035
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I'm like, there's a business?
40:53.015 --> 41:04.512
[SPEAKER_01]: What do you mean as a business, learning how to do the business, how to market, how to sell, how to promote, how to follow up, how to do all these different things that business consists of.
41:04.732 --> 41:15.007
[SPEAKER_01]: I've recognized that a lot of people understand that yes, you can be creative, you can do the creativity behind it, however the creativity is very limited if you don't understand the business side of it.
41:15.027 --> 41:17.250
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's why I want to ask you that question.
41:17.230 --> 41:28.158
[SPEAKER_01]: So group that we are one last segment and it's called this will last is when I ask you four questions and you answer within 30 seconds Okay, you ready rapid fire rapid fire.
41:28.218 --> 41:28.779
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, sir.
41:29.180 --> 41:30.203
[SPEAKER_01]: So question number one.
41:30.865 --> 41:31.847
[SPEAKER_01]: What do you prefer for for?
41:32.384 --> 41:33.125
[SPEAKER_00]: everything.
41:33.185 --> 42:02.374
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm most grateful that when I was in grad school talking about being over credentialed and closing off the job market but I met I met a wonderful girl there and I convinced it to marry me and now we have two beautiful kids six and a half and three and a half so that's the thing I'm most grateful for because the dating world, the dating scene in the U.S. just the culture people are coming from, it is a mess and I got very lucky and I know
42:02.354 --> 42:15.233
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's that's the number one thing and my wife she's a economist she studies in the happiness literature And you you look at people at the end of their life and if they're happier not happy and you know what what is about their lives that make them happy
42:15.297 --> 42:21.946
[SPEAKER_00]: Having a family and having your family be in good health, that's the number one predictor about whether somebody's happy.
42:22.586 --> 42:24.849
[SPEAKER_00]: If you have a family, your family is healthy.
42:25.210 --> 42:28.134
[SPEAKER_00]: Everything else, how much money you make, all that stuff, it doesn't really matter.
42:28.674 --> 42:32.199
[SPEAKER_00]: Anywhere near as much as, you know, if you've got family, your family are healthy.
42:33.340 --> 42:34.502
[SPEAKER_01]: That's powerful.
42:34.522 --> 42:36.685
[SPEAKER_01]: I appreciate you sharing that with me on a question number two.
42:37.125 --> 42:38.427
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you have any regrets?
42:40.089 --> 42:40.950
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean,
42:41.133 --> 42:46.840
[SPEAKER_00]: Not really, I took a very different path, but I wouldn't be me if I had taken a different path.
42:47.280 --> 42:47.801
[SPEAKER_00]: You know what I mean?
42:47.841 --> 42:59.374
[SPEAKER_00]: So it is not much, it is not much room for regrets because you know, if I hadn't been in a car accident and messed up my knee, I wouldn't have gone back to college.
42:59.814 --> 43:02.938
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not able to stand for a shift anymore.
43:02.918 --> 43:06.565
[SPEAKER_00]: But, you know, I had a lot more to offer the world than working in the blue collar job.
43:06.966 --> 43:15.083
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, I'm grateful for that car accident, but, you know, when some days it started to get a little arthritic, it kind of bothers me.
43:15.163 --> 43:19.793
[SPEAKER_00]: But, you know what, my life is a lot better having gone back to college and kind of failing upward, you know?
43:21.877 --> 43:21.957
[UNKNOWN]: Wow.
43:22.223 --> 43:29.510
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, that was about to pick back on it, but I do it after this.
43:29.730 --> 43:35.856
[SPEAKER_01]: What was your biggest takeaway while being the founder of Unemployed Value DGN?
43:36.917 --> 43:41.942
[SPEAKER_00]: My biggest takeaway, I mean, I lived in a town in Maine called Pit's Field.
43:42.783 --> 43:44.945
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the population's still something like 200 people.
43:45.966 --> 43:49.429
[SPEAKER_00]: And I was on Beans Corner Road and Pit's Field, Maine.
43:50.185 --> 43:53.314
[SPEAKER_00]: And I mean, the world seemed so small.
43:54.036 --> 44:03.722
[SPEAKER_00]: I had to ask my parents permission if I could call my cousins in the next county because long distance plans, it was a different county to county in time a day.
44:04.023 --> 44:11.852
[SPEAKER_00]: And now I have subscribers paying to read what I write in Kazakhstan on the other side of the world.
44:12.092 --> 44:16.718
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's just amazing how small the world has gotten in my lifetime.
44:16.758 --> 44:26.349
[SPEAKER_00]: And I, you know, my grandmother passed away not too long ago at the age of 99, I would always ask her stories about what the world was like, you know, horse manure on the road and taking trains and things like that.
44:27.069 --> 44:29.372
[SPEAKER_00]: And in my lifetime, going from
44:29.352 --> 44:38.127
[SPEAKER_00]: being's corner road and pit's field main to having somebody paying to read my opinion from Kazakhstan is it's just so humbling.
44:38.328 --> 44:40.732
[SPEAKER_00]: So powerful is thousands of people.
44:40.812 --> 44:47.023
[SPEAKER_00]: I didn't come last month I had over a hundred thousand people read my articles.
44:47.307 --> 44:50.731
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's coming from a town with like 200 people in it.
44:50.871 --> 44:54.236
[SPEAKER_00]: It's kind of, it's just so unbelievably humbling.
44:54.656 --> 44:56.959
[SPEAKER_00]: Most people can't even imagine what 100,000 people is.
44:56.999 --> 45:01.585
[SPEAKER_00]: You think in the last time you were in a football state and that held 40,000 people and think like, well, two and a half of those.
45:02.506 --> 45:08.173
[SPEAKER_00]: That is just, it's, it's, people have a very hard time visualizing numbers bigger than that.
45:08.374 --> 45:10.436
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's, it's just massive.
45:13.019 --> 45:15.863
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll send a mic and tell you in the film as well.
45:15.927 --> 45:17.049
[SPEAKER_00]: She lived to be 99.
45:17.329 --> 45:18.491
[SPEAKER_00]: She had a good life.
45:18.611 --> 45:19.092
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, yeah.
45:19.112 --> 45:19.312
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
45:19.352 --> 45:19.693
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
45:20.854 --> 45:20.955
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
45:20.975 --> 45:25.121
[SPEAKER_01]: And then last question, what does failure is knowledge mean to you?
45:25.922 --> 45:26.663
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
45:27.805 --> 45:29.627
[SPEAKER_00]: HL Menken had this really good quote.
45:29.728 --> 45:31.210
[SPEAKER_00]: He said he was sold up the river.
45:32.031 --> 45:34.375
[SPEAKER_00]: That instead of being sold down the river, he was sold up the river.
45:34.975 --> 45:38.020
[SPEAKER_00]: Because every time somebody fired him, he ended up somewhere better.
45:38.422 --> 45:40.225
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, I think that's what happened to me.
45:40.745 --> 45:42.829
[SPEAKER_00]: I, you know, I was very surprised.
45:42.889 --> 45:44.010
[SPEAKER_00]: The university I was at.
45:44.231 --> 45:45.553
[SPEAKER_00]: I was told, it's like a family.
45:45.873 --> 45:47.095
[SPEAKER_00]: No one's ever been fired here.
45:47.536 --> 45:48.357
[SPEAKER_00]: There was one lady.
45:48.377 --> 45:49.559
[SPEAKER_00]: She didn't had a mental breakdown.
45:49.579 --> 45:50.821
[SPEAKER_00]: She didn't submit final grades.
45:50.881 --> 45:52.123
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what it took to get fired.
45:53.064 --> 45:54.306
[SPEAKER_00]: And then they got a new president.
45:54.947 --> 45:56.129
[SPEAKER_00]: And the culture changed.
45:56.790 --> 45:58.973
[SPEAKER_00]: And a couple people didn't have their contracts renewed.
45:58.993 --> 46:01.457
[SPEAKER_00]: And it was kind of a kind of a shot, kind of a surprise.
46:01.957 --> 46:03.259
[SPEAKER_00]: And the university still growing.
46:03.319 --> 46:04.381
[SPEAKER_00]: Some university was shrinking.
46:04.441 --> 46:07.045
[SPEAKER_00]: The really was just a pure culture shift.
46:07.143 --> 46:17.038
[SPEAKER_00]: I guess we're not family anymore, but I think it really was like the HL men can quote that I was sold up the river because now, you know, now I have a business that can grow.
46:17.058 --> 46:23.768
[SPEAKER_00]: Now there's billions of people in the world and there's hundreds of millions of millionaires.
46:23.748 --> 46:38.276
[SPEAKER_00]: And the American stock market, I knew right about other countries too, but the Americans stock market is where all the action is and there is people that want to be part of that that sport of trying to see the future, trying to be right, trying to predict what's going to happen.
46:39.158 --> 46:44.608
[SPEAKER_00]: That means I could have, you know, right now I've got 6,600 subscribers.
46:44.588 --> 46:47.774
[SPEAKER_00]: The most popular sub-stacks have tens of thousands of subscribers.
46:47.854 --> 46:52.482
[SPEAKER_00]: So I know I can do better, I can grow the business, there's no ceiling above me, right?
46:53.745 --> 46:56.690
[SPEAKER_00]: There's no upper limit, and that's kind of amazing.
46:56.710 --> 47:02.200
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's very different from being somebody's employee and being in a job and saying, well, if I'm doing really good, I'll get a 3% raise.
47:02.240 --> 47:07.069
[SPEAKER_00]: If I do badly, I'll get a 1% raise, it's a totally different mindset.
47:07.589 --> 47:10.576
[SPEAKER_01]: I definitely agree, because now the work is dependent on you.
47:11.037 --> 47:13.001
[SPEAKER_01]: Steven Man, this has been incredible.
47:13.021 --> 47:13.983
[SPEAKER_01]: I can't be able to find you.
47:14.003 --> 47:16.469
[SPEAKER_01]: I can learn more about unemployed value DGN.
47:16.770 --> 47:18.393
[SPEAKER_01]: How can they connect with you?
47:18.413 --> 47:20.658
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I have the unemployed value DGN.
47:20.719 --> 47:21.801
[SPEAKER_00]: Substack.
47:22.135 --> 47:27.804
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm also active on Twitter, same name, unemployed, value, de-gen, I'm turning over rocks every day.
47:27.824 --> 47:36.819
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm trying to find, find, find, find, buried treasure, trying to find companies, people disagree about, trying to be able to see the future, you know, a little better than other people.
47:38.301 --> 47:40.465
[SPEAKER_00]: The term speculator.
47:40.445 --> 47:42.528
[SPEAKER_00]: It comes from the Latin word for watch tower.
47:43.129 --> 47:46.934
[SPEAKER_00]: The idea is if you climb that tower, you can see farther than everybody else.
47:47.254 --> 47:48.776
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's what research is to me.
47:49.057 --> 47:50.138
[SPEAKER_00]: I climb the watch tower.
47:50.339 --> 47:52.181
[SPEAKER_00]: I try to be able to see just a little bit farther.
47:52.862 --> 47:56.447
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't have a background in technology, but you're able to figure things out.
47:56.687 --> 47:59.772
[SPEAKER_00]: Like electric vehicles, they can't take over the whole market.
47:59.792 --> 48:00.953
[SPEAKER_00]: There's not enough nickel to do it.
48:01.294 --> 48:04.478
[SPEAKER_00]: And that allowed me to make some investments.
48:04.458 --> 48:05.860
[SPEAKER_00]: you know, became multibaggers.
48:06.581 --> 48:08.664
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's, that's where I think the fun is.
48:09.285 --> 48:11.028
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's also fun in making money.
48:11.368 --> 48:24.467
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's, uh, it's nice to be able to add value that I've had people send me messages and say, and look, my subscription paid for itself a thousand times, you know, somebody pays me a hundred dollars and they make ten thousand bucks off of my idea.
48:24.527 --> 48:25.869
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's, that's fantastic.
48:25.929 --> 48:33.520
[SPEAKER_00]: That's, uh, it's a pretty, uh, pretty durable, uh, product that the value added can, uh, you know,
48:33.500 --> 48:35.023
[SPEAKER_00]: that can easily pay the subscription.
48:36.786 --> 48:39.110
[SPEAKER_01]: I definitely re-manced even this has been great.
48:39.151 --> 48:42.958
[SPEAKER_01]: Before we end, I'd like to end with a quote from you.
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[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of quotes from a lot of people that we can quote with.
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[SPEAKER_01]: Especially from Yinks.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So I go first.
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[SPEAKER_01]: The quote I'm going to go with is, Learn the report is a failure because you never know what this failure is going to lead to.
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[SPEAKER_00]: That's fantastic, and now you want me to come up with a quote that I quote quoting myself have it be a profound on this spot, that's a lot of pressure, that's a lot of pressure.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, well, a lot of people in the stock market think that it's competitive.
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[SPEAKER_00]: At the other side, no, something you don't, that they have an edge and you don't have an edge.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And what they're missing is, you know, it's a positive sum of some game, right?
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[SPEAKER_00]: Everybody can make money at the same time.
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[SPEAKER_00]: If somebody's selling you a stock, they can have a bunch of different reasons for it.
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[SPEAKER_00]: It doesn't mean that you're the pats at the poker table, right?
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[SPEAKER_00]: You're buying a business.
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[SPEAKER_00]: It might be a good business.
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[SPEAKER_00]: They might be selling it because they're retired.
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[SPEAKER_00]: They need the money to pay their mortgage, right?
49:46.890 --> 49:48.052
[SPEAKER_00]: They need the money to pay their bills.
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[SPEAKER_00]: They might not be selling it because I think it's a bad business.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So there's a lot of people out there that think, you know, you're the sucker at the poker table and the capital markets are positive some.
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[SPEAKER_00]: It doesn't have to be like that.
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[SPEAKER_00]: You don't know why they're selling that stock.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So if you're going to quote me, I'd say, you know, investing is a positive some game.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Everybody can win.
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[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, they had no, that was good, that was good.
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[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I appreciate it, but it's time to go ahead.
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[SPEAKER_01]: Steven, again, thank you for coming out to Dean.
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[SPEAKER_01]: Faith, it's not as far as I can.
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[SPEAKER_01]: What was your biggest takeaway about the owner by a case?
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[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, my biggest takeaway, it's just how small the world has gotten that you can, you can put out a podcast that it can be seen by, you know, you look at the metrics, the demographics, you find out somebody watched your podcast and Singapore, somebody watched it in Malaysia, somebody watched it in Kazakhstan, it's just amazing how small the world is getting.
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[SPEAKER_01]: I definitely agree.
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[SPEAKER_01]: In last question, for someone that's hesitant to come on some of the phaseless podcasts, what's more piece of advice than you can get out.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, it's that old joke.
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[SPEAKER_00]: How do you get the card to be haul in practice?
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[SPEAKER_00]: You know, you just got to keep making one step at a time, one podcast after another.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Just, you know, step by step, one at a time, that's all it takes.