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[upbeat music] Hello and welcome to another episode of Explaining Brazil. My name is Gustavo Ribeiro. I'm the editor-in-chief of the Brazilian Report.
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Today we're going to talk not about Brazil specifically, but about one of Brazil's biggest trading partners, the US. US Democrats have taken back both houses of Congress in Tuesday, November the 3rd.
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The party won the midterms in both the House and the Senate, flipping Senate seats in states that hadn't voted that way in decades, and securing its largest House majority in nearly 20 years.
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Voters delivered a sharp rebuke to President Donald Trump, and for the next two years every part of his agenda will need to get through a Congress controlled by his opponents. So what does that mean for Brazil?
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Well, Washington has spent much of Trump's second terms, second term at odds with Brasilia. From punitive tariff sanctions to sanctions against Brazilian officials to, uh, canceling visas to, uh,
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the Brazilian ambassador to Washington. Now Lula heads into a new term facing what could be a very different Washington. Will the US Congress push back on the White House's Brazil policy?
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Will relations between the two countries change? And if so, how quickly will they change? So to try answering these questions without, uh,
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almost any time to reflect on Tuesday's results, I welcome James Green from Brown University and from the Brazil Office Alliance. Uh, James is in New York right now. Uh, how is it going, James? Uh, I'm doing well.
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I didn't sleep last night 'cause I was following the election results until 5:00 in the morning and then I had to tape at 6:00, but I'm doing well. It's, I'm really on a high.
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It's a good s- it's good news for the United States and for the world. It's really good news. So can you talk a little bit about how significant this, uh, electoral [laughs] liking is? Because, uh,
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many people were already predicting that the House would flip, but now both Houses and with very significant numbers. So is this, uh, a Democrat win? Is this a Trump defeat?
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Trump has already said he was not on the ballot and this is not about him. Uh, what, what can you t- tell, tell us
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about the- It was a, it was a defeat for Trump and a victory for democracy in Brazil and for the progressive agenda that is basically led by sectors of the Democratic Party. Huge, huge importance for everything.
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It will af- affect the outcome of the 28 con- constellation of c- candidates for, for the presidency in the United States.
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Uh, it will likely reign in, to a certain extent, Trump's, uh, excesses in his governance and his corruption, and he's terrified about that.
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He really thinks that there's gonna be a third impeachment attempt, which I don't think will actually happen, but, but, um, uh, because there are not the votes in the Senate.
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I don't think the Democrats are gonna spend the time taking him through an impeachment where he can then claim that he's a victim.
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Um, what's really interesting, it was the debate was so great yesterday that Trump didn't even question the e- election results, didn't question anything about fraud.
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All the, the arguments he was leading up to preparing for, some kind of ir- irrational, illegal inter- intervention in the elections did not happen because he was so badly defeated.
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And just to fi- to finalize this, the analogy that's being used by many observers, and I agree with this, is actually the victory of the Democrats in 1974.
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In Brazil in '74, if we recall, the military was in power and the opposition won a huge victory in the Congress, and it started to set the stage for the slow process of democratization when the MDB opposition to the Arena political party won such a significant vote in '74.
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That same year, as a result of the Watergate scandal, there were elections in the US Congress which totally shifted power to the Democrats, and they were able in the years following to carry out a series of reforms including the War Powers Act, which is being, trying to be used today to control the war in Iran.
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But also to limit the power of the presidency, all of which Trump has eroded against with the support of the Supreme Court, but now there's a possibility that the Congress will actually assume power, assume its rights and powers, and start limiting the powers of the presidency.
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So this will be very important, including the way in which, um, Trump carries out his tariffs and how he carries out his foreign policy.
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Now speaking of foreign policy, uh, for readers who are not familiar with it, uh, and because this is very different in Brazil and in the US, how much of a say does Congress have
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in terms of US foreign policy, and how much it can affect one way or another an administration on that regard?
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So for the last two years we've had a Republican majority in both the House and the Senate which refused to do anything critical of, of, uh, of, uh, of the Trump administration, and only were their, the ability to, to peel off two or three Republican senators were they able to pass, uh, in the House and in, uh, in the Senate, and also by getting support from a few Rep- uh, Republicans in the Senate, in the House to be able to pass [coughs]
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excuse me, um, these resolutions which were limiting the War Powers Act. The Congress doesn't have a lot of power except over the purse, the ability to
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withhold funding for projects as a way of doing that and investigating. And so it's gonna be more political pressure- On, on Trump, uh, questioning his policies.
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Uh, uh, there's a real clear pl- pledge within the Democratic Party now to end the war in Iran as soon as possible, uh, pressuring Trump to end the war.
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I, I think Trump is in a real bind on this now because the, the estimates was that he was going to carry out some bombings, uh, of Iran after the election, the midterm elections.
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I don't know if he's gonna do that now because it's gonna make him look so bad if he manages to do that. And there is a split going on between Michael, excuse me, um, J.D.
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Vance, vice president, and, um, Trump about explaining why they lost the elections and J.D. Vance's argument is because of the war in Iran.
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Trump acknowledges that the war is not popular, but he feels he needs to do it anyway. But J.D. Vance is really placing the blame on the foreign policy.
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So there's more pressure now for there to be an end to the war, to bring down the prices of petroleum and, and diesel, and I think that's what Trump is going to try to do in some way, shape, or other.
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And the Democrats will support, uh, you know, an end to the war. So that's a, that's a situation that I think Trump will be focusing on.
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Um, I think that in that regard, Brazil will be on the back burner in the first moment, both for the Trump administration and for the Democrats, uh, in the House and the Senate.
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But I think there will be the possibility of opening hearings about the situation in Brazil, perhaps in the second half of next year, once they've really, uh, attacked all the major questions and issues ar- around corruption, uh, of the, of the Trump family, of the Epstein files, and, um, the war in Iran, and also the ICE, the, uh, treating of, of ICE on citizens and undocumented workers living in the United States.
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Well, uh, Democrats tried to use Flávio Bolsonaro as an argument. And I mean, of course, it would always be a marginal argument. This was an election about purchasing power, about diesel prices mostly.
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Uh, but they were saying that while Trump is deporting hardworking, honest migrants, he is harboring, uh, international criminals.
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And they had, uh, the face of Flávio Bolso- Flávio Bolsonaro as the face of that argument. Uh, and I mean, you-- elections in the US are usually very tight, so any
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votes that you may sway one way or another could make a difference. Do you think that in any way, shape, or form Brazil was a factor or not at all? Unfortunately, not at all. I, I regret to say that.
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I would like to say that it was very important.
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Um, the Washington Brazil office worked with others to, uh, encourage the Congress to, to send the letter that they sent, uh, members of Congress around the situation of Flávio Bolsonaro in the United States.
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There are a- additional statements and, and letters that are going to be, uh, issued in the next couple of days. I think people were afraid of the news cycles around the elections would kind of quiet anything else.
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But, um, you know, uh, it would-- I would like to think that the work that we do, uh, to raise education about Brazil has a loss, a, a, a wide effect. It really doesn't, unfortunately.
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It's really towards a specific group of people in the society who have some subjective reason, connection to Brazil, whether they're Brazilians or relatives of Brazilians or have lived in Brazil or, um, eh, or people who are interested in the country for a ver- a variety of reasons.
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A- and it's a small number of people in Congress, and the society as a whole has vague notions about who Jair Bolsonaro is and who Flávio Bolsonaro is.
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Those references are made in news, uh, uh, broadcasts of commentators around the situation in Brazil.
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Even though you have a sense when people are using those references, they know very little about the details, but they're using Flávio as a foil and as an example of the corruption of the, the, um, the American administration.
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And I think if, in fact, the investigations on the laundering of money and dark horse and all, uh, uh, take places next year in Brazil, then it's likely that this kind of information will get out to the United States, and the question will be, are, are there any, uh, legal consequences of Flávio Bolsonaro being in the United States when he may have committed crimes or international money laundering crimes or, uh, other issues that, uh, were illegal?
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And I'm not saying he has done that, but if that's the case, then there's the whole issue of whether there will be, um, a basis for his deportation because one fills out forms when one comes to the United States, even on a humanitarian visa, to justify entry.
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And if he's lied on anything in that statement, he can be deported.
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Um, that probably will not happen until it, it, uh, when and if the Democrats win the White House in two thousand and twenty-eight and assume power in 'twenty-nine because that's when the Department of Justice would be able to proceed on a deportation.
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Before that, I think that won't be the case.
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And in my mind, um, that Marco Rubio and the State Department has, has got Flávio and Eduardo, uh, in a, in a refrigerator or freezer or on the, in the cold storage right now waiting to bring him out at another more favorable moment because it's not.
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Lula is on a roll in Brazil, even though it's a modest one.
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Uh, there will be all the energy around the, uh, uh, inauguration and the new government and the kinds of people in the new government which will take the attention away, uh, from that.
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And I think this defeat is putting the Bolsonaro forces, I would assume, on the defensive in the United States because they really, they almost lost Florida.
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Florida could have gone Democrat by two, two and a half, uh, points, and it would have gone Democrat, which is unheard of.
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Uh, suddenly these states that in the past were, you know, heavily red are now swing states and will, will be important in the elections.
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And because many Democrats won the key swing states, they- I mean, a Democrat, a Black Democrat is leading Mississippi for the Senate race, which is something- By, by a tiny margin.
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But the, but the, the, uh, the former mayor of Atlanta, um, Keisha, uh, um, I'm not remembering her name now because I really didn't sleep last night, um- Kesha Bottoms, uh, w- one governorship.
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And so this, these are states that will be overseeing the electoral process in '28. So all the attempts that it seemed that the Trump administration was trying to carry out- Kesha Lance Bottoms... Thank you.
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Kesha Lance Bottom.
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The, all, all the attempts that the, uh, the, uh, Trump administration has tried to use to, uh, control the election process, cover up, to claim that the '22 elections were fraudulent, all of that will be much harder to do because the people who make those decisions of elections are states, and the governor has a lot of power in terms of overseeing that process.
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So, uh, this is a huge loss for the Democrats, and it will affect the outcome in the '28 presidential elections because it, it clearly shows that the Democrats- That the Republicans remain Yeah.
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Well, it'll have a negative- Big loss for the Demo-... negative effect for the Republicans- For the Republicans...
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positive for the Democrats because, uh, it's clear now that the Democrats have the possibility of, of winning the electoral votes in key states which were called swing states, including new states such as Texas, which had never been thought of as a swing state in the past.
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Iowa, which is another state which did so well. Alaska, uh, Maine. Kansas These are states that will... These are all states that are now in play for disputes.
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And if the Democratic Party manages to present forceful, good candidates in, uh, in '28, uh, and if they also at the same time do everything possible to try to let the public know that they're trying to re- re- reduce costs of living, uh, find ways to solve the energy prices, the crisis.
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If they're able to do that, they position themself very well to be successful in winning the 2028 elections.
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Now, uh, your point goes, uh, in the same way, w- uh, to the one made by two, uh, US officials I talked to recently, uh,
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who were saying that Brazil thinks that, uh, they are far, it is far more important for the US than it actually is, that there are, uh, very few Portuguese-speaking people within the State Department, that many people don't know that much about Brazil.
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Uh, and I mean, the Brazilian government has not re- officially reacted to the midterms, but, uh, we know that Brazil is celebrating this. Uh, for, for the Lula administration, it is, uh, y- y- you're muted.
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Uh, uh, for the Lula administration, it is, uh, something that, uh, they welcome because they believe that a Trump administration dogged by Washington politics could be, um, a, a Washington that is not pursuing, uh, a trade war with Brazil or, uh, uh, trying to, uh, sanction Brazilian officials.
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Um, how do you see that playing out? Because we, we have seen, uh, some Democrat, Democratic lawmakers promising, uh, hearings committee, uh, on
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the, the process to accept Flávio Bolsonaro and his family, uh, to, uh, the relationship with the Brazilian far right. How do you see that playing out, if you see that playing out at all?
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No, I think it w- it's, it's very possible it plays out. It depends on political, uh, forces that make it happen, 'cause it doesn't happen out of, out of thin air.
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But I think in the second half of next year, if there's a momentum, and this will also depend a lot on what happens in the Brazilian Supreme Court.
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If this Brazilian Supreme Court, faced with this crisis in which five of the, of the, uh, uh, the Supreme Court justices in some way are potentially connected to the largest financial scandal in Brazilian history, if that plays out, in which there's really a, an investigation of people's culpability, uh, and, and that's resolved, that's one thing.
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If the, they put all that under the rug, um, it's another situation because the question will be whether or not the judicial system in Brazil will start seriously pursuing the crimes that allegedly Flávio Bolsonaro has committed in mon- money laundering and other fraudulent activities.
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If that's the case, and that is happening at this moment when the Republicans are extremely weak in the United States and have lost control of the- A- a- a- and James, if I may just interrupt you, just for the sake of context for people who are not, uh, as much of a political wonk as we are.
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So Flávio Bolsonaro, uh, is battling multiple money laundering accusations before the Supreme Court. When he arrived first in the first round, the Supreme Court started extending some olive branches his way,
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and then once he lost, uh, the opposite happened. So, uh, many of these investigations against him started to move business as usual, which they wouldn't if he had won the election also because of presidential immunity.
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He was told to, uh, surrender his passports and to stay in Brazil while the proceedings are happening, and a day later, he was flying to the US in order to seek refuge. So please go ahead.
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No, and, uh, the problem that he has is that the, uh, the main argument they're, they're making two main arguments.
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One is that there was electoral impropriety because the Supreme Court ordered the extension of the hours for voting for two hours.
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But it, the, it's a very fictitious argument because the, the party of Flávio Bolsonaro did the same thing, asked for the same extension that the Workers' Party did, and the number of votes was insignificant for the outcome.
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So there was a huge historic defeat for Bolsonarismo, especially because of the comeback that, uh, Lula managed to, to make and, and to be elected with a l- fairly large margin of 3.8% is a good margin, 4.4 million votes.
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So in that regard, I think there's a climate at the moment in Brazil to pursue prosecution or investigation of Flávio Bolsonaro.
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And if he is brought charges against him, it's gonna be very hard for his camp to argue that Brazil is under a dictatorship if- Uh, two of his brothers are in legislative bodies in the gov- in the country.
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If the political party that elected him is vying to control the Senate, if, uh, they have huge numbers of people in Congress, it's very hard to say that there's some kind of political persecution against people in the country if it's not just against Flávio.
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So I think that he's gonna have a h- harder time to make his case in the United States. He's gonna be...
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The, the, the State Department is gonna be weakened in attacking Brazil because of the fact that they're in a weakened position at this moment.
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Um, and I think, you know, the only mitigating force against that, um, w- withdraw is Marco Rubio's ambitions for presidency, and that has to do with really establishing a clear anti-communist, anti-progressive forces in Latin America that he can then say he's the main r- person who's gonna combat these forces, uh, on the, uh, in the, in the region a- and, and, and therefore will need to perform, uh, aggressively, uh, uh, against the Brazilian government in favor of Flávio.
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But I think at this point, um, these issues are gonna not get much traction in Washington, DC.
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I think that the Democrats, um, are now scrambling to figure out how they're gonna effectively rule next year, and the Republicans are gonna go through a process of, of internal fighting and blame, uh, throwing on each other, and Donald Trump will find other people to be the scapegoats because he refused to accept responsibility for anything he does in his life.
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So that will weaken the Democratic, uh, the Republican Party. Now, just to finalize, Donald Trump has infinite energy to defend his positions and go on the offensive.
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So I'm not d- I'm not saying that he's written off for the next two years. These are two incredibly intense two years.
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So but the only point is he's gonna be on the defensive a lot because the Democrats are gonna put him on the defensive.
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More investigations can happen, and I think this will distract him to a certain extent from pursuing a more, um, uh, aggressive, uh, policy towards Brazil regarding the tariffs, regarding the claims that, uh, Brazil some way harbors terrorist organizations in the organized crime gangs that operate in the country, uh, and other, uh, charges against Brazil that, uh, have been floated by, uh, the Trump administration.
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Um, so I think we're very- And no, no, that, uh, and that, uh, and that will be my, my next question because the, the Economist, I think, w- when was it?
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In, in August, they wrote that, uh, if Trump loses, we should not regard him as a lame duck, but rather as an aging silverback gorilla, uh, which is a species that once the, the alpha male, uh, sees its time coming, it becomes incredibly aggressive and destructive.
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So do you see more a lame duck willing to engage with Brazil or that silverback gorilla, uh, willing to impose the Monroe Doctrine, uh, to its fullest, uh, in this next two years?
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It's, it's, it's a wonderful analogy, and I would...
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If only the only thing that makes it a weak analogy is this, is since that, um, I think Donald Trump is becoming more co- incoherent and, and there really are signs of a mental degeneration, and I'm not an expert on this, and it's only based on impressions, but it c- clearly is there, and it's not just, you know, the opposition badmouthing him.
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I think it's a real, a real thing. So I think he's gonna be weakened in that regard, and this defeat was overwhelming. And the Republicans do know that.
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Just to give you another element of this, every state in which there was two Republican senators and now one of the two senators is Democrat, the other senator is gonna be up for election either in two years or four years and is thinking, "Man, this other person just got elected in my state, which never elects Democrats.
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I'm vulnerable in two years. I have to distance myself from Trump in some way or I'm gonna get ig- kicked out by a, another, you know, up-and-rising Democrat charismatic leader."
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And so there's gonna be a situation in which sectors within the Republican Party are gonna have to withdraw or retreat from their complete support of Donald Trump in order to politically survive because that's what they're interested in.
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And I think now they're starting to realize that Trump's power as waning, it's gonna get weaker, and even though he might have these gorilla-esque reactions which are violent and aggressive, I think he's gonna be much more, uh, less effective in that regard.
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He's not gonna be able to threaten people about, uh, controlling the d- Republican Party in the same ways that they managed to do 'cause he was a failure and he, the candidates he chose were disastrous in that regard, and I think people are gonna push back around that.
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Now, whether there's gonna be an open rebellion in the Republican Party, I don't think so, but I think they're gonna be very demoralized and on the defensive for a period of time, uh, which will
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benefit Brazil to the extent that Trump is weakened and therefore less likely to be carrying out these aggressive policies.
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And the re- re- the Democrats can really start trying to control his attitudes towards, towards, um, towards tariffs by passing legislation which might not get approved by the president who might veto it, but there are really ways that they can put pressure on the Trump administration now to reclaim powers in the first article of the Constitution that are directed towards the Congress which has r- has, uh,
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uh, reneged on, on assuming those responsibilities, has given them over to, uh, the presidency and I think that dynamic is gonna change. Now, uh,
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forgetting about the US and looking more about how it affects Brazil specifically, uh, many people in the left are seeing this result as, okay, now nature is going to heal again, and it's much more nuanced than that because Democrats can be protectionist too.
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So if we're talking about Brazil-US trade relations, uh,
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h- how do you see, uh, like do you see trade issues Uh, where Democratic Congress might be no friendlier to Brazil than the current administration in areas such as agriculture, steel, ethanol.
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Can Congress affect, uh, Trump's policies on those areas specifically? No, I think you're, you're making a good point.
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I think one of the reasons why he lost, uh, the elections in Iowa and in Kansas is in part because of Trump's policies towards, uh, agribusiness and small farmers in the United States, and therefore the, the, the, the, the need for them to guarantee that they have markets.
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And so some of the Brazilian markets have been, you know, eliminated, and the Chinese markets were eliminated for these agricultural, uh, producers as well.
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So I think, uh, it is possible that, uh, sectors of the Democratic Party who are concerned about protecting industry, uh, might, uh, continue to argue for tariffs for the shoe industry in Brazil, which is one of the many different, uh, sectors that was punished by Trump's tariffs.
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And so that could happen. It's, it's... There is a, a wing of the Democratic Party which is very protectionist.
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Uh, and, um, an example of that is, uh, a con- a senator who was in power for two terms and then was ousted and came back, Sam Brown of Ohio, who was very linked to the labor movement and the issue of protecting US industries against, uh, their fleeing abroad and, and losing the, the power and the edge they have.
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Trump claimed that he was bringing back jobs to the United States. He didn't in any way serious way. I think the Democrats...
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I think they're starting to understand that if they don't show very concrete tangible improvements for individuals in the United States in the areas in which they're working, the opposition is the people who voted for them are not gonna forgive, they're not gonna forgive them in two years.
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They really have to show that they're fighting for ordinary people. People have to realize that and see that for that to happen.
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Um, and so in the m- in the meantime, it, it doesn't necessarily mean that the trading relations between the two countries is gonna get better.
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But I think that, for example, Trump is not gonna be able to continue to be so aggressive towards Canada and towards other countries that he has been so aggressive to because it's just not gonna pan out for the interests in the United States that are gonna push back against that.
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And, uh, o- one other issue is, uh, when we're talking about the, uh, climate policies, uh, the Lula administration and Democrats see way more eye to eye than, uh, with any Republican administration.
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Biden had pledged, uh, to send funds to the Amazon, but, uh, the, the, the purse is controlled by Congress. That money, like, that path is way more, uh, complicated than just executive will.
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Do you think that even with Trump in the White House, uh, uh, the Amazon Fund, uh, uh, could see, uh, or, or any other type of cooperation around, uh, the, uh, around climate issues could come between Brazil and the US with this congressional configuration that, uh, comes out of
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Tuesday's election? I mean, I think there's tremendous possibility.
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The number of, of Democrats who in the past have supported different, uh, letters, uh, to the administration, uh, about the situation in Brazil is significant.
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There's a good block of people who understand either superficially or more profoundly the reality of Brazil, and that includes environmentalists and allies in the Democratic Party who are really in favor of going back to the Paris Accords, really are afraid about global warming.
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They're significant, and in fact, they've built a base of support on the people who are against the data centers, which is a very interesting new phenomenon, bipartisan of people across the country demanding that if data centers come, centers come into their areas to provide the,
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the, uh, the storage space for all the things that we produce and get thrown onto the internet, including this broadcast, um, that there's a real opposition to that, and I think that there's, uh, concern in Brazil, uh, about the data center question.
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There'll be a lot of interesting dialogues between, uh, movements in the two countries- Well, a- and to your point, a- and so- sorry to cut you off, but, uh, we did this story about how Brazil is in a very different moment, uh, and Bra- Brazilian policymakers, they are trying to get data centers into their cities, uh, into their states.
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Uh, and I was talking to a few experts, and one of them said, "Well, it's just that we're, uh, today what US policymakers were three, four, five years ago."
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Everyone wanted data centers until they were there and, uh, the side effects to the environment started to, to be known and now, uh, data centers have become extremely unpopular.
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And his prediction is, if Brazil starts building all the data centers it promises to build, uh, that same sentiment is going to invade Brazilian politics five, six, seven years from now. Or even earlier than that.
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And I think the, the, the, the dilemma for people is, do we... I mean, do we want to... I'm not an expert on artificial intelligence or how, um, the storage of information works,
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um, but I think that on one hand, people do want to maintain the resources, the abilities to take th- thousands of pictures and store them on your, your iCloud and have that material there and available to you.
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Uh, that's wanted by people.
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And on the other hand, the, one of the big challenges in the United States has to do with the effect on local economies and their resources because they require a lot of e- electrical energy or some other kind of source of energy.
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And so many times when they establish themselves, they up the price of electricity in the region. Um, there is a need for tremendous sources of water as well.
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Uh, and so the question will be in the United States is whether, uh, c- communities allow people to come in and that those companies that come in, uh, don't get tax breaks, but actually, uh, put things back into the community.
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And I assume that's the way, given the I think the strong notion that social movements have in Brazil about, um, popular participation and the ef-effects of things on their, um, everyday lives, that this will become the main, uh, demand as well.
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If, you know, if Brazil can offer through water power or solar power, uh, the energy, and that's not an issue, that's one question that's been resolved, but I think there are other environmental questions that need to be addressed, and I assume that they will be.
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And it's a contradiction for the Lula administration, you're right, in that regard because, uh, but he lives contradictions between those who believe in, uh,
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you know, ending all fossil fuel exploration and the desire to open the, the oil wells on the mouth of the Amazon River.
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Uh, and that tension that exists between the government and it's, it's c- to me, it's pretty amazing that it didn't provoke a split, uh, in, in the last, uh, four years of the, of the Trump, of the, uh, Lula administration.
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Uh, because there were people with very diametrically opposed ideas within the Lula government.
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Marina Silva, on one hand, Ministry of the Environment, uh, and other people who are very much in favor of, uh, developing the oil, uh, resources- Just drill, ba-ba- drill, baby, drill. [laughs] Yeah, yeah, exactly.
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Brazilian version. With a, with strong arguments around that. So I mean, I think what, what this does is it opens a new political dynamic. It upsets the apple cart. Things change radically.
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It's not a revolution, but it's a very significant change, and it offers many new opportunities to do things that were not possible before.
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And so I think people who are very concerned about educating, uh, the American public about Brazil need to take advantage of this new situation, uh, to continue the work of educating and, and, and advocating for certain policies, um, for the country, for the United States, uh, and for the good of both countries, and for the good of Latin America.
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Because I think this really weakened, the victory of Lula, uh, two weeks ago and, and now this tremendous victory of the Democrats in the United States is really w- gonna weaken Trump's policies, in spite of his potential for going crazy as a mad gorilla at some point, uh, in the s-subsequent two years.
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Well, and speaking of that, uh, uh, our organizations are part of that job of educating, uh, the American public about Brazil, so please go to the Brazilian Report, brazilian.report/subscribe, or go to the Brazil Office Alliance's website.
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Uh, and just one quick question before I let you go. Uh, the Brazil Office Alliance has worked with member of Congress, uh, on Brazilian democracy for years.
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So, uh, which Democrats do you think, uh, are the most engaged on Brazil, and who might become key voices in the new Congress in that bilateral relationship?
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So, I mean, there are many people who've historically been very good, uh, in, in supporting, uh, the work of defending democracy in Brazil. Bernie Sanders is well known.
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Tim Kaine, who was Hillary Clinton's vice presidential candidate in '16, had lived as a volunteer in the Peace Corps or some volunteer, I think it was a, a volunteer Catholic organization in Central America, and so has a real closeness and affinity towards Latin America.
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But there are other very important members of Congress like Jim McGovern of Massachusetts, who was the one who actually wrote the Magnitsky Bill that, that Brazil demanded be applied to Alexandre de Moraes.
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And he, he wrote a tweet this last year saying, "My bill has nothing to do with what you're trying to do in Brazil.
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This is a total misunderstanding of the, of the purpose of the law that I wrote, which is to, uh, to denounce really gross violation of human rights, uh, under the Putin regime in Russia, uh, and sanctioning people for that," which is just really not the, the s-similar situation in Brazil in any way, shape, or form.
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So, uh, the, um, Sidney Chamaguer Dove, who is the, uh, co-chair of the Brazil caucus within, uh, the Congress, who is very interested in Brazil. Um, and, uh, there, there, there are many, uh, important
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veterans of the Congress who will continue, I think, to support their activities.
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And then there are new people coming in, some of whom are not necessarily fully aware of what is going on in Brazil, but I think we're gonna be able to reach out to them and talk to them about the situation there.
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So I think there's going to be a, a new kind of energy.
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For example, uh, not, not only, uh, Ted Cruz, the, uh, new senator from Texas, who is a Presbyterian, uh, theolog- uh, a, a seminarian student, or a man named, um, Hamilton Marshall, who is the chief pastor of the largest Methodist church in Kansas City, um, which is called, uh, of the United Methodist Church.
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These are two people who represent a tradition that exists in Brazil as well, a minority position in Brazil among Protestants, which was seeing the, the gospel as a, a progressive document and Jesus' life as one of, of, of loving the other and helping the other.
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And th- these people were very important. These m- people who are linked to these two churches in Brazil were very important members of the opposition of the regime.
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Uh, and the same is true with these progressive or liberal churches which are really trying to implement, um, their understanding of the, of the Bible, uh, to apply in everyday life.
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And I think they're gonna be significantly important, and I think they're gonna have a, a empathy and an interest in, in Brazil and Latin America, which will be to the benefit of people in Latin America.
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So I think we, we, we see many new possibilities. New people will be assuming the chairships of committees and important committees.
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So someone like Jamie Raskin, who was very, very good at meeting and talking to us about Brazil, very concerned about the possibility that, that the Bolsonaro family was in some way connected to the January 6th invasion of the Capitol because, uh, Flávio was in the United States.
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I think it was Flávio, maybe it was Eduardo, was in the United States on the eve of the invasion of the Capitol.
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Um, so he's gonna be the head of the Judiciary Committee, which is an extremely powerful and important committee.
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And therefore, I think the possibilities of talking to him about the situation in Brazil and seeing what they might do to defend democracy in Brazil, strengthen democratic institutions, is a real, real possibility.
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I think we have a, a lot of hard work ahead of us, but I think we have a really crucial, uh, set of allies that can really be, uh, in the camp of democracy and social justice in Brazil.
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Oh, James, I think we can leave it, it there. Uh, thank you very much. Always good talk- talking to you, and we're going to continue this wonderful journey. Yeah, we're gonna have to keep, continue this.
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I really enjoy our talks. We're gonna have to make them happen- [laughs]... now that the elections are over, like [laughs]
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so I hope we can continue our conversations publicly because I think, uh, there's a public out there that enjoys hearing people talking about Brazil, and it's a wonderful pleasure for me to be able to participate in that process.
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The pleasure's shared. Thank you very much, and have a, a great rest of the week for you. Take care. Bye-bye.
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[upbeat music] Hello and welcome to another episode of Explaining Brazil. My name is Gustavo Ribeiro. I'm the editor-in-chief of the Brazilian Report.
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Today we're going to talk not about Brazil specifically, but about one of Brazil's biggest trading partners, the US. US Democrats have taken back both houses of Congress in Tuesday, November the 3rd.
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The party won the midterms in both the House and the Senate, flipping Senate seats in states that hadn't voted that way in decades, and securing its largest House majority in nearly 20 years.
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Voters delivered a sharp rebuke to President Donald Trump, and for the next two years every part of his agenda will need to get through a Congress controlled by his opponents. So what does that mean for Brazil?
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Well, Washington has spent much of Trump's second terms, second term at odds with Brasilia. From punitive tariff sanctions to sanctions against Brazilian officials to, uh, canceling visas to, uh,
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the Brazilian ambassador to Washington. Now Lula heads into a new term facing what could be a very different Washington. Will the US Congress push back on the White House's Brazil policy?
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Will relations between the two countries change? And if so, how quickly will they change? So to try answering these questions without, uh,
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almost any time to reflect on Tuesday's results, I welcome James Green from Brown University and from the Brazil Office Alliance. Uh, James is in New York right now. Uh, how is it going, James? Uh, I'm doing well.
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I didn't sleep last night 'cause I was following the election results until 5:00 in the morning and then I had to tape at 6:00, but I'm doing well. It's, I'm really on a high.
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It's a good s- it's good news for the United States and for the world. It's really good news. So can you talk a little bit about how significant this, uh, electoral [laughs] liking is? Because, uh,
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many people were already predicting that the House would flip, but now both Houses and with very significant numbers. So is this, uh, a Democrat win? Is this a Trump defeat?
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Trump has already said he was not on the ballot and this is not about him. Uh, what, what can you t- tell, tell us
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about the- It was a, it was a defeat for Trump and a victory for democracy in Brazil and for the progressive agenda that is basically led by sectors of the Democratic Party. Huge, huge importance for everything.
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It will af- affect the outcome of the 28 con- constellation of c- candidates for, for the presidency in the United States.
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Uh, it will likely reign in, to a certain extent, Trump's, uh, excesses in his governance and his corruption, and he's terrified about that.
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He really thinks that there's gonna be a third impeachment attempt, which I don't think will actually happen, but, but, um, uh, because there are not the votes in the Senate.
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I don't think the Democrats are gonna spend the time taking him through an impeachment where he can then claim that he's a victim.
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Um, what's really interesting, it was the debate was so great yesterday that Trump didn't even question the e- election results, didn't question anything about fraud.
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All the, the arguments he was leading up to preparing for, some kind of ir- irrational, illegal inter- intervention in the elections did not happen because he was so badly defeated.
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And just to fi- to finalize this, the analogy that's being used by many observers, and I agree with this, is actually the victory of the Democrats in 1974.
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In Brazil in '74, if we recall, the military was in power and the opposition won a huge victory in the Congress, and it started to set the stage for the slow process of democratization when the MDB opposition to the Arena political party won such a significant vote in '74.
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That same year, as a result of the Watergate scandal, there were elections in the US Congress which totally shifted power to the Democrats, and they were able in the years following to carry out a series of reforms including the War Powers Act, which is being, trying to be used today to control the war in Iran.
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But also to limit the power of the presidency, all of which Trump has eroded against with the support of the Supreme Court, but now there's a possibility that the Congress will actually assume power, assume its rights and powers, and start limiting the powers of the presidency.
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So this will be very important, including the way in which, um, Trump carries out his tariffs and how he carries out his foreign policy.
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Now speaking of foreign policy, uh, for readers who are not familiar with it, uh, and because this is very different in Brazil and in the US, how much of a say does Congress have
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in terms of US foreign policy, and how much it can affect one way or another an administration on that regard?
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So for the last two years we've had a Republican majority in both the House and the Senate which refused to do anything critical of, of, uh, of, uh, of the Trump administration, and only were their, the ability to, to peel off two or three Republican senators were they able to pass, uh, in the House and in, uh, in the Senate, and also by getting support from a few Rep- uh, Republicans in the Senate, in the House to be able to pass [coughs]
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excuse me, um, these resolutions which were limiting the War Powers Act. The Congress doesn't have a lot of power except over the purse, the ability to
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withhold funding for projects as a way of doing that and investigating. And so it's gonna be more political pressure- On, on Trump, uh, questioning his policies.
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Uh, uh, there's a real clear pl- pledge within the Democratic Party now to end the war in Iran as soon as possible, uh, pressuring Trump to end the war.
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I, I think Trump is in a real bind on this now because the, the estimates was that he was going to carry out some bombings, uh, of Iran after the election, the midterm elections.
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I don't know if he's gonna do that now because it's gonna make him look so bad if he manages to do that. And there is a split going on between Michael, excuse me, um, J.D.
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Vance, vice president, and, um, Trump about explaining why they lost the elections and J.D. Vance's argument is because of the war in Iran.
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Trump acknowledges that the war is not popular, but he feels he needs to do it anyway. But J.D. Vance is really placing the blame on the foreign policy.
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So there's more pressure now for there to be an end to the war, to bring down the prices of petroleum and, and diesel, and I think that's what Trump is going to try to do in some way, shape, or other.
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And the Democrats will support, uh, you know, an end to the war. So that's a, that's a situation that I think Trump will be focusing on.
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Um, I think that in that regard, Brazil will be on the back burner in the first moment, both for the Trump administration and for the Democrats, uh, in the House and the Senate.
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But I think there will be the possibility of opening hearings about the situation in Brazil, perhaps in the second half of next year, once they've really, uh, attacked all the major questions and issues ar- around corruption, uh, of the, of the Trump family, of the Epstein files, and, um, the war in Iran, and also the ICE, the, uh, treating of, of ICE on citizens and undocumented workers living in the United States.
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Well, uh, Democrats tried to use Flávio Bolsonaro as an argument. And I mean, of course, it would always be a marginal argument. This was an election about purchasing power, about diesel prices mostly.
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Uh, but they were saying that while Trump is deporting hardworking, honest migrants, he is harboring, uh, international criminals.
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And they had, uh, the face of Flávio Bolso- Flávio Bolsonaro as the face of that argument. Uh, and I mean, you-- elections in the US are usually very tight, so any
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votes that you may sway one way or another could make a difference. Do you think that in any way, shape, or form Brazil was a factor or not at all? Unfortunately, not at all. I, I regret to say that.
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I would like to say that it was very important.
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Um, the Washington Brazil office worked with others to, uh, encourage the Congress to, to send the letter that they sent, uh, members of Congress around the situation of Flávio Bolsonaro in the United States.
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There are a- additional statements and, and letters that are going to be, uh, issued in the next couple of days. I think people were afraid of the news cycles around the elections would kind of quiet anything else.
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But, um, you know, uh, it would-- I would like to think that the work that we do, uh, to raise education about Brazil has a loss, a, a, a wide effect. It really doesn't, unfortunately.
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It's really towards a specific group of people in the society who have some subjective reason, connection to Brazil, whether they're Brazilians or relatives of Brazilians or have lived in Brazil or, um, eh, or people who are interested in the country for a ver- a variety of reasons.
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A- and it's a small number of people in Congress, and the society as a whole has vague notions about who Jair Bolsonaro is and who Flávio Bolsonaro is.
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Those references are made in news, uh, uh, broadcasts of commentators around the situation in Brazil.
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Even though you have a sense when people are using those references, they know very little about the details, but they're using Flávio as a foil and as an example of the corruption of the, the, um, the American administration.
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And I think if, in fact, the investigations on the laundering of money and dark horse and all, uh, uh, take places next year in Brazil, then it's likely that this kind of information will get out to the United States, and the question will be, are, are there any, uh, legal consequences of Flávio Bolsonaro being in the United States when he may have committed crimes or international money laundering crimes or, uh, other issues that, uh, were illegal?
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And I'm not saying he has done that, but if that's the case, then there's the whole issue of whether there will be, um, a basis for his deportation because one fills out forms when one comes to the United States, even on a humanitarian visa, to justify entry.
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And if he's lied on anything in that statement, he can be deported.
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Um, that probably will not happen until it, it, uh, when and if the Democrats win the White House in two thousand and twenty-eight and assume power in 'twenty-nine because that's when the Department of Justice would be able to proceed on a deportation.
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Before that, I think that won't be the case.
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And in my mind, um, that Marco Rubio and the State Department has, has got Flávio and Eduardo, uh, in a, in a refrigerator or freezer or on the, in the cold storage right now waiting to bring him out at another more favorable moment because it's not.
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Lula is on a roll in Brazil, even though it's a modest one.
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Uh, there will be all the energy around the, uh, uh, inauguration and the new government and the kinds of people in the new government which will take the attention away, uh, from that.
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And I think this defeat is putting the Bolsonaro forces, I would assume, on the defensive in the United States because they really, they almost lost Florida.
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Florida could have gone Democrat by two, two and a half, uh, points, and it would have gone Democrat, which is unheard of.
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Uh, suddenly these states that in the past were, you know, heavily red are now swing states and will, will be important in the elections.
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And because many Democrats won the key swing states, they- I mean, a Democrat, a Black Democrat is leading Mississippi for the Senate race, which is something- By, by a tiny margin.
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But the, but the, the, uh, the former mayor of Atlanta, um, Keisha, uh, um, I'm not remembering her name now because I really didn't sleep last night, um- Kesha Bottoms, uh, w- one governorship.
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And so this, these are states that will be overseeing the electoral process in '28. So all the attempts that it seemed that the Trump administration was trying to carry out- Kesha Lance Bottoms... Thank you.
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Kesha Lance Bottom.
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The, all, all the attempts that the, uh, the, uh, Trump administration has tried to use to, uh, control the election process, cover up, to claim that the '22 elections were fraudulent, all of that will be much harder to do because the people who make those decisions of elections are states, and the governor has a lot of power in terms of overseeing that process.
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So, uh, this is a huge loss for the Democrats, and it will affect the outcome in the '28 presidential elections because it, it clearly shows that the Democrats- That the Republicans remain Yeah.
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Well, it'll have a negative- Big loss for the Demo-... negative effect for the Republicans- For the Republicans...
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positive for the Democrats because, uh, it's clear now that the Democrats have the possibility of, of winning the electoral votes in key states which were called swing states, including new states such as Texas, which had never been thought of as a swing state in the past.
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Iowa, which is another state which did so well. Alaska, uh, Maine. Kansas These are states that will... These are all states that are now in play for disputes.
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And if the Democratic Party manages to present forceful, good candidates in, uh, in '28, uh, and if they also at the same time do everything possible to try to let the public know that they're trying to re- re- reduce costs of living, uh, find ways to solve the energy prices, the crisis.
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If they're able to do that, they position themself very well to be successful in winning the 2028 elections.
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Now, uh, your point goes, uh, in the same way, w- uh, to the one made by two, uh, US officials I talked to recently, uh,
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who were saying that Brazil thinks that, uh, they are far, it is far more important for the US than it actually is, that there are, uh, very few Portuguese-speaking people within the State Department, that many people don't know that much about Brazil.
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Uh, and I mean, the Brazilian government has not re- officially reacted to the midterms, but, uh, we know that Brazil is celebrating this. Uh, for, for the Lula administration, it is, uh, y- y- you're muted.
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Uh, uh, for the Lula administration, it is, uh, something that, uh, they welcome because they believe that a Trump administration dogged by Washington politics could be, um, a, a Washington that is not pursuing, uh, a trade war with Brazil or, uh, uh, trying to, uh, sanction Brazilian officials.
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Um, how do you see that playing out? Because we, we have seen, uh, some Democrat, Democratic lawmakers promising, uh, hearings committee, uh, on
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the, the process to accept Flávio Bolsonaro and his family, uh, to, uh, the relationship with the Brazilian far right. How do you see that playing out, if you see that playing out at all?
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No, I think it w- it's, it's very possible it plays out. It depends on political, uh, forces that make it happen, 'cause it doesn't happen out of, out of thin air.
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But I think in the second half of next year, if there's a momentum, and this will also depend a lot on what happens in the Brazilian Supreme Court.
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If this Brazilian Supreme Court, faced with this crisis in which five of the, of the, uh, uh, the Supreme Court justices in some way are potentially connected to the largest financial scandal in Brazilian history, if that plays out, in which there's really a, an investigation of people's culpability, uh, and, and that's resolved, that's one thing.
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If the, they put all that under the rug, um, it's another situation because the question will be whether or not the judicial system in Brazil will start seriously pursuing the crimes that allegedly Flávio Bolsonaro has committed in mon- money laundering and other fraudulent activities.
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If that's the case, and that is happening at this moment when the Republicans are extremely weak in the United States and have lost control of the- A- a- a- and James, if I may just interrupt you, just for the sake of context for people who are not, uh, as much of a political wonk as we are.
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So Flávio Bolsonaro, uh, is battling multiple money laundering accusations before the Supreme Court. When he arrived first in the first round, the Supreme Court started extending some olive branches his way,
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and then once he lost, uh, the opposite happened. So, uh, many of these investigations against him started to move business as usual, which they wouldn't if he had won the election also because of presidential immunity.
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He was told to, uh, surrender his passports and to stay in Brazil while the proceedings are happening, and a day later, he was flying to the US in order to seek refuge. So please go ahead.
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No, and, uh, the problem that he has is that the, uh, the main argument they're, they're making two main arguments.
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One is that there was electoral impropriety because the Supreme Court ordered the extension of the hours for voting for two hours.
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But it, the, it's a very fictitious argument because the, the party of Flávio Bolsonaro did the same thing, asked for the same extension that the Workers' Party did, and the number of votes was insignificant for the outcome.
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So there was a huge historic defeat for Bolsonarismo, especially because of the comeback that, uh, Lula managed to, to make and, and to be elected with a l- fairly large margin of 3.8% is a good margin, 4.4 million votes.
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So in that regard, I think there's a climate at the moment in Brazil to pursue prosecution or investigation of Flávio Bolsonaro.
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And if he is brought charges against him, it's gonna be very hard for his camp to argue that Brazil is under a dictatorship if- Uh, two of his brothers are in legislative bodies in the gov- in the country.
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If the political party that elected him is vying to control the Senate, if, uh, they have huge numbers of people in Congress, it's very hard to say that there's some kind of political persecution against people in the country if it's not just against Flávio.
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So I think that he's gonna have a h- harder time to make his case in the United States. He's gonna be...
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The, the, the State Department is gonna be weakened in attacking Brazil because of the fact that they're in a weakened position at this moment.
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Um, and I think, you know, the only mitigating force against that, um, w- withdraw is Marco Rubio's ambitions for presidency, and that has to do with really establishing a clear anti-communist, anti-progressive forces in Latin America that he can then say he's the main r- person who's gonna combat these forces, uh, on the, uh, in the, in the region a- and, and, and therefore will need to perform, uh, aggressively, uh, uh, against the Brazilian government in favor of Flávio.
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But I think at this point, um, these issues are gonna not get much traction in Washington, DC.
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I think that the Democrats, um, are now scrambling to figure out how they're gonna effectively rule next year, and the Republicans are gonna go through a process of, of internal fighting and blame, uh, throwing on each other, and Donald Trump will find other people to be the scapegoats because he refused to accept responsibility for anything he does in his life.
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So that will weaken the Democratic, uh, the Republican Party. Now, just to finalize, Donald Trump has infinite energy to defend his positions and go on the offensive.
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So I'm not d- I'm not saying that he's written off for the next two years. These are two incredibly intense two years.
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So but the only point is he's gonna be on the defensive a lot because the Democrats are gonna put him on the defensive.
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More investigations can happen, and I think this will distract him to a certain extent from pursuing a more, um, uh, aggressive, uh, policy towards Brazil regarding the tariffs, regarding the claims that, uh, Brazil some way harbors terrorist organizations in the organized crime gangs that operate in the country, uh, and other, uh, charges against Brazil that, uh, have been floated by, uh, the Trump administration.
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Um, so I think we're very- And no, no, that, uh, and that, uh, and that will be my, my next question because the, the Economist, I think, w- when was it?
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In, in August, they wrote that, uh, if Trump loses, we should not regard him as a lame duck, but rather as an aging silverback gorilla, uh, which is a species that once the, the alpha male, uh, sees its time coming, it becomes incredibly aggressive and destructive.
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So do you see more a lame duck willing to engage with Brazil or that silverback gorilla, uh, willing to impose the Monroe Doctrine, uh, to its fullest, uh, in this next two years?
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It's, it's, it's a wonderful analogy, and I would...
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If only the only thing that makes it a weak analogy is this, is since that, um, I think Donald Trump is becoming more co- incoherent and, and there really are signs of a mental degeneration, and I'm not an expert on this, and it's only based on impressions, but it c- clearly is there, and it's not just, you know, the opposition badmouthing him.
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I think it's a real, a real thing. So I think he's gonna be weakened in that regard, and this defeat was overwhelming. And the Republicans do know that.
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Just to give you another element of this, every state in which there was two Republican senators and now one of the two senators is Democrat, the other senator is gonna be up for election either in two years or four years and is thinking, "Man, this other person just got elected in my state, which never elects Democrats.
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I'm vulnerable in two years. I have to distance myself from Trump in some way or I'm gonna get ig- kicked out by a, another, you know, up-and-rising Democrat charismatic leader."
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And so there's gonna be a situation in which sectors within the Republican Party are gonna have to withdraw or retreat from their complete support of Donald Trump in order to politically survive because that's what they're interested in.
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And I think now they're starting to realize that Trump's power as waning, it's gonna get weaker, and even though he might have these gorilla-esque reactions which are violent and aggressive, I think he's gonna be much more, uh, less effective in that regard.
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He's not gonna be able to threaten people about, uh, controlling the d- Republican Party in the same ways that they managed to do 'cause he was a failure and he, the candidates he chose were disastrous in that regard, and I think people are gonna push back around that.
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Now, whether there's gonna be an open rebellion in the Republican Party, I don't think so, but I think they're gonna be very demoralized and on the defensive for a period of time, uh, which will
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benefit Brazil to the extent that Trump is weakened and therefore less likely to be carrying out these aggressive policies.
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And the re- re- the Democrats can really start trying to control his attitudes towards, towards, um, towards tariffs by passing legislation which might not get approved by the president who might veto it, but there are really ways that they can put pressure on the Trump administration now to reclaim powers in the first article of the Constitution that are directed towards the Congress which has r- has, uh,
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uh, reneged on, on assuming those responsibilities, has given them over to, uh, the presidency and I think that dynamic is gonna change. Now, uh,
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forgetting about the US and looking more about how it affects Brazil specifically, uh, many people in the left are seeing this result as, okay, now nature is going to heal again, and it's much more nuanced than that because Democrats can be protectionist too.
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So if we're talking about Brazil-US trade relations, uh,
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h- how do you see, uh, like do you see trade issues Uh, where Democratic Congress might be no friendlier to Brazil than the current administration in areas such as agriculture, steel, ethanol.
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Can Congress affect, uh, Trump's policies on those areas specifically? No, I think you're, you're making a good point.
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I think one of the reasons why he lost, uh, the elections in Iowa and in Kansas is in part because of Trump's policies towards, uh, agribusiness and small farmers in the United States, and therefore the, the, the, the, the need for them to guarantee that they have markets.
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And so some of the Brazilian markets have been, you know, eliminated, and the Chinese markets were eliminated for these agricultural, uh, producers as well.
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So I think, uh, it is possible that, uh, sectors of the Democratic Party who are concerned about protecting industry, uh, might, uh, continue to argue for tariffs for the shoe industry in Brazil, which is one of the many different, uh, sectors that was punished by Trump's tariffs.
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And so that could happen. It's, it's... There is a, a wing of the Democratic Party which is very protectionist.
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Uh, and, um, an example of that is, uh, a con- a senator who was in power for two terms and then was ousted and came back, Sam Brown of Ohio, who was very linked to the labor movement and the issue of protecting US industries against, uh, their fleeing abroad and, and losing the, the power and the edge they have.
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Trump claimed that he was bringing back jobs to the United States. He didn't in any way serious way. I think the Democrats...
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I think they're starting to understand that if they don't show very concrete tangible improvements for individuals in the United States in the areas in which they're working, the opposition is the people who voted for them are not gonna forgive, they're not gonna forgive them in two years.
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They really have to show that they're fighting for ordinary people. People have to realize that and see that for that to happen.
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Um, and so in the m- in the meantime, it, it doesn't necessarily mean that the trading relations between the two countries is gonna get better.
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But I think that, for example, Trump is not gonna be able to continue to be so aggressive towards Canada and towards other countries that he has been so aggressive to because it's just not gonna pan out for the interests in the United States that are gonna push back against that.
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And, uh, o- one other issue is, uh, when we're talking about the, uh, climate policies, uh, the Lula administration and Democrats see way more eye to eye than, uh, with any Republican administration.
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Biden had pledged, uh, to send funds to the Amazon, but, uh, the, the, the purse is controlled by Congress. That money, like, that path is way more, uh, complicated than just executive will.
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Do you think that even with Trump in the White House, uh, uh, the Amazon Fund, uh, uh, could see, uh, or, or any other type of cooperation around, uh, the, uh, around climate issues could come between Brazil and the US with this congressional configuration that, uh, comes out of
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Tuesday's election? I mean, I think there's tremendous possibility.
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The number of, of Democrats who in the past have supported different, uh, letters, uh, to the administration, uh, about the situation in Brazil is significant.
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There's a good block of people who understand either superficially or more profoundly the reality of Brazil, and that includes environmentalists and allies in the Democratic Party who are really in favor of going back to the Paris Accords, really are afraid about global warming.
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They're significant, and in fact, they've built a base of support on the people who are against the data centers, which is a very interesting new phenomenon, bipartisan of people across the country demanding that if data centers come, centers come into their areas to provide the,
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the, uh, the storage space for all the things that we produce and get thrown onto the internet, including this broadcast, um, that there's a real opposition to that, and I think that there's, uh, concern in Brazil, uh, about the data center question.
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There'll be a lot of interesting dialogues between, uh, movements in the two countries- Well, a- and to your point, a- and so- sorry to cut you off, but, uh, we did this story about how Brazil is in a very different moment, uh, and Bra- Brazilian policymakers, they are trying to get data centers into their cities, uh, into their states.
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Uh, and I was talking to a few experts, and one of them said, "Well, it's just that we're, uh, today what US policymakers were three, four, five years ago."
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Everyone wanted data centers until they were there and, uh, the side effects to the environment started to, to be known and now, uh, data centers have become extremely unpopular.
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And his prediction is, if Brazil starts building all the data centers it promises to build, uh, that same sentiment is going to invade Brazilian politics five, six, seven years from now. Or even earlier than that.
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And I think the, the, the, the dilemma for people is, do we... I mean, do we want to... I'm not an expert on artificial intelligence or how, um, the storage of information works,
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um, but I think that on one hand, people do want to maintain the resources, the abilities to take th- thousands of pictures and store them on your, your iCloud and have that material there and available to you.
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Uh, that's wanted by people.
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And on the other hand, the, one of the big challenges in the United States has to do with the effect on local economies and their resources because they require a lot of e- electrical energy or some other kind of source of energy.
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And so many times when they establish themselves, they up the price of electricity in the region. Um, there is a need for tremendous sources of water as well.
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Uh, and so the question will be in the United States is whether, uh, c- communities allow people to come in and that those companies that come in, uh, don't get tax breaks, but actually, uh, put things back into the community.
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And I assume that's the way, given the I think the strong notion that social movements have in Brazil about, um, popular participation and the ef-effects of things on their, um, everyday lives, that this will become the main, uh, demand as well.
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If, you know, if Brazil can offer through water power or solar power, uh, the energy, and that's not an issue, that's one question that's been resolved, but I think there are other environmental questions that need to be addressed, and I assume that they will be.
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And it's a contradiction for the Lula administration, you're right, in that regard because, uh, but he lives contradictions between those who believe in, uh,
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you know, ending all fossil fuel exploration and the desire to open the, the oil wells on the mouth of the Amazon River.
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Uh, and that tension that exists between the government and it's, it's c- to me, it's pretty amazing that it didn't provoke a split, uh, in, in the last, uh, four years of the, of the Trump, of the, uh, Lula administration.
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Uh, because there were people with very diametrically opposed ideas within the Lula government.
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Marina Silva, on one hand, Ministry of the Environment, uh, and other people who are very much in favor of, uh, developing the oil, uh, resources- Just drill, ba-ba- drill, baby, drill. [laughs] Yeah, yeah, exactly.
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Brazilian version. With a, with strong arguments around that. So I mean, I think what, what this does is it opens a new political dynamic. It upsets the apple cart. Things change radically.
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It's not a revolution, but it's a very significant change, and it offers many new opportunities to do things that were not possible before.
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And so I think people who are very concerned about educating, uh, the American public about Brazil need to take advantage of this new situation, uh, to continue the work of educating and, and, and advocating for certain policies, um, for the country, for the United States, uh, and for the good of both countries, and for the good of Latin America.
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Because I think this really weakened, the victory of Lula, uh, two weeks ago and, and now this tremendous victory of the Democrats in the United States is really w- gonna weaken Trump's policies, in spite of his potential for going crazy as a mad gorilla at some point, uh, in the s-subsequent two years.
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Well, and speaking of that, uh, uh, our organizations are part of that job of educating, uh, the American public about Brazil, so please go to the Brazilian Report, brazilian.report/subscribe, or go to the Brazil Office Alliance's website.
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Uh, and just one quick question before I let you go. Uh, the Brazil Office Alliance has worked with member of Congress, uh, on Brazilian democracy for years.
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So, uh, which Democrats do you think, uh, are the most engaged on Brazil, and who might become key voices in the new Congress in that bilateral relationship?
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So, I mean, there are many people who've historically been very good, uh, in, in supporting, uh, the work of defending democracy in Brazil. Bernie Sanders is well known.
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Tim Kaine, who was Hillary Clinton's vice presidential candidate in '16, had lived as a volunteer in the Peace Corps or some volunteer, I think it was a, a volunteer Catholic organization in Central America, and so has a real closeness and affinity towards Latin America.
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But there are other very important members of Congress like Jim McGovern of Massachusetts, who was the one who actually wrote the Magnitsky Bill that, that Brazil demanded be applied to Alexandre de Moraes.
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And he, he wrote a tweet this last year saying, "My bill has nothing to do with what you're trying to do in Brazil.
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This is a total misunderstanding of the, of the purpose of the law that I wrote, which is to, uh, to denounce really gross violation of human rights, uh, under the Putin regime in Russia, uh, and sanctioning people for that," which is just really not the, the s-similar situation in Brazil in any way, shape, or form.
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So, uh, the, um, Sidney Chamaguer Dove, who is the, uh, co-chair of the Brazil caucus within, uh, the Congress, who is very interested in Brazil. Um, and, uh, there, there, there are many, uh, important
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veterans of the Congress who will continue, I think, to support their activities.
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And then there are new people coming in, some of whom are not necessarily fully aware of what is going on in Brazil, but I think we're gonna be able to reach out to them and talk to them about the situation there.
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So I think there's going to be a, a new kind of energy.
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For example, uh, not, not only, uh, Ted Cruz, the, uh, new senator from Texas, who is a Presbyterian, uh, theolog- uh, a, a seminarian student, or a man named, um, Hamilton Marshall, who is the chief pastor of the largest Methodist church in Kansas City, um, which is called, uh, of the United Methodist Church.
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These are two people who represent a tradition that exists in Brazil as well, a minority position in Brazil among Protestants, which was seeing the, the gospel as a, a progressive document and Jesus' life as one of, of, of loving the other and helping the other.
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And th- these people were very important. These m- people who are linked to these two churches in Brazil were very important members of the opposition of the regime.
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Uh, and the same is true with these progressive or liberal churches which are really trying to implement, um, their understanding of the, of the Bible, uh, to apply in everyday life.
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And I think they're gonna be significantly important, and I think they're gonna have a, a empathy and an interest in, in Brazil and Latin America, which will be to the benefit of people in Latin America.
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So I think we, we, we see many new possibilities. New people will be assuming the chairships of committees and important committees.
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So someone like Jamie Raskin, who was very, very good at meeting and talking to us about Brazil, very concerned about the possibility that, that the Bolsonaro family was in some way connected to the January 6th invasion of the Capitol because, uh, Flávio was in the United States.
180
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I think it was Flávio, maybe it was Eduardo, was in the United States on the eve of the invasion of the Capitol.
181
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Um, so he's gonna be the head of the Judiciary Committee, which is an extremely powerful and important committee.
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And therefore, I think the possibilities of talking to him about the situation in Brazil and seeing what they might do to defend democracy in Brazil, strengthen democratic institutions, is a real, real possibility.
183
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I think we have a, a lot of hard work ahead of us, but I think we have a really crucial, uh, set of allies that can really be, uh, in the camp of democracy and social justice in Brazil.
184
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Oh, James, I think we can leave it, it there. Uh, thank you very much. Always good talk- talking to you, and we're going to continue this wonderful journey. Yeah, we're gonna have to keep, continue this.
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I really enjoy our talks. We're gonna have to make them happen- [laughs]... now that the elections are over, like [laughs]
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so I hope we can continue our conversations publicly because I think, uh, there's a public out there that enjoys hearing people talking about Brazil, and it's a wonderful pleasure for me to be able to participate in that process.
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The pleasure's shared. Thank you very much, and have a, a great rest of the week for you. Take care. Bye-bye.
