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Speaker 1: Thrashing out the big issues.
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Speaker 2: Analyzing the facts. Throwing out the fiction. Hearing what matters.
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Speaker 3: No topic off limits. No holding back.
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Speaker 2: No scripts. No rules. No bull.
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Speaker 3: Barry Soper.
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Speaker 2: Josie Pagani. Trish Shearson.
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Speaker 3: Heather Dupacy-Allen.
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Speaker 1: The Front Bench.
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Speaker 3: On your home for election 2026.
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Speaker 2: Newstalk ZB.
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Speaker 4: Right, welcome to the show. Slightly different today, obviously, and different every Monday throughout the election because we are now in full campaign mode as we wind the clock down. We're going to have the front bench shortly. It's a full hour of politics for you. And then after that, Chris Bishop on reviving Mill Road yet again. We'll get you across what the hell is going on with cricket at the moment. And most Kiwis don't expect the government to fund their weight loss jabs. That's after 6.30. The Front Bench. All right. Is there anything more predictable in an election campaign than the Green Party promising more trains and the National Party promising to build roads? And that is what has just happened at the last weekend. Obviously, you shouldn't believe the Greens that they're going to get you more trains because they will never get any leading party in government to give them enough money for these expensive trains. But you would also be a fool to believe National, especially with regard to their promise yesterday to build Mill Road. just south of Auckland, because let me remind you of the recent history of Mill Road. In 2017, National promised to build Mill Road if they won the election. They obviously didn't win the election, so Labour came in and scrapped the promise. And then in early 2022, because it was election year again, Labour promised to build Mill Road again, and then they scrapped it again because they never really meant to build it in the first place because Labour never actually wanted to build roads. And then in 2023, because it was election year again, National promised to build Mill Road. And then this year they scrapped it and they put it in the go slow lane for the roads of national significance because they probably never really meant to build it because they knew they never had the money to pay for it because they had frozen the petrol tax for three years already and there wasn't enough money in the road building kitty. And then five and a half weeks ago, and we covered this on the show, we found out that NZTA had stopped buying the properties needed for for Mill Road if they were really going to do the upgrade, and they'd started emailing the landowners and cancelling the contracts. So do you really believe, not even six weeks after cancelling the plans with the people who own the land that would be required, that all of a sudden, we're going to build the road again, and we're going to start emailing them again and go, whoops, sorry, contract's back on. It's not real. And even if it is real, National will have trouble convincing people to believe it's real because fool me once, etc., But do you see what I mean when I say there is nothing more predictable than trains from the Greens and roads from National in an election? Mill Road has literally been promised now for four elections straight. Have you got it?
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Speaker 2: Nah.
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Speaker 4: The Front Bench.
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Speaker 3: All right.
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Speaker 4: Joining me on the Front Bench, let me welcome in the A crew. We have Barry Soper, senior political correspondent, Trish Sherson, Sherson Willis, PR, Josie Begani. Child Fund Chief Executive. Hello, all of you.
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Speaker 2: Hello.
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Speaker 4: Now, somebody's mic is not on.
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Speaker 2: That's yours.
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Speaker 4: Oh, Your Majesty, Trish. Let me do that for you. Now, big campaign, weekend of campaigns, Trish, obviously. We had the prize for predictability, I think, going to the National Party and the Greens. What do you say?
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Speaker 2: Absolutely.
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Speaker 3: And just to pick up on your point, I think this mill road is emblematic of why National and Labour are bleeding votes to other parties because they just make the same old promises every election year and the voters this time aren't buying it.
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Speaker 4: We've been here once. We've been here twice. In fact, we've been here thrice. And this is now the fourth time and we're not going to suck this one in.
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Speaker 1: Are we?
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Speaker 3: And eight Rons don't make a right. I mean, the roads of national significance, they're on, they're off. And in three years now, we've managed to build a new framework for how we prioritise them, but we still haven't got any tarmac on the road.
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Speaker 1: I reckon I just missed the memo when public transport became left wing and roads became right wing. Like back in the 40s. It used to be that Labour ministers would actually open a road with lots of trumpets and fanfare and ribbons.
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Speaker 2: And bowling hats.
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Speaker 4: They had the Ministry of Works.
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Speaker 2: Yes.
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Speaker 1: Why hadn't you that Labour Party?
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Speaker 4: What I think, though, on National, Barry, this screams to me of desperation. It's almost as if, like the supermarket policy, they've suddenly decided to do something and they've announced it on the hoof and it wasn't actually part.
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Speaker 2: Of the plan. That's what the campaign's all about, isn't it? I was talking to somebody, a very well-known person here in Auckland the other day, And I said, what do you think? And he said, it's messy. And this campaign has been very messy. You've got, you know, the roads of national significance. They are back on track again. And in the meantime, with all those promises that have been made by the political parties, Drury is expected now to have a population of about 134,000 people within a few years. So they do need roading into that part of the city. And the longer they delay it, the more traffic jams we're going to have in the city and no one wants that. So it has to be on the agenda. But who's going to come up with the money to stump up a new road?
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Speaker 3: Well, I was talking to some people over the weekend, not very well known, actually my neighbours, and they really... They summed up what people are saying about this election. They said, we just do not know who to vote for. That is the refrain I'm hearing most often. And the reason for that, people are saying... it is just so messy and fragmented. So you've got the vote fragmenting, you've got the major parties going after, you know, $ 5, $ 3, $ 2 in your household budget, when in fact this election is a four-letter word election, D-E-B-T. So where is the party telling us how much per week we're racking up in our national debt and what they're actually going to do about it?
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Speaker 2: It's the economy, Stephen.
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Speaker 1: Do you know what it feels like? To me, it feels like those really bad PowerPoints you see where there's a diagram with arrows going, you know, F right up and down, circles and triangles running. Your eye doesn't know where to look. And it feels like there's just multiple policies, especially from the smaller parties, but even the bigger parties, some really weird ones. Like New Zealand first announced this weekend with subsidised sunscreen. And you're going, whoa. When was that priority? And so you just feel like you don't know where to look in this really bad PowerPoint slide.
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Speaker 2: Why we've got now this plethora of promises is that this is, in my view, the first real MMP election. You've got the two major parties in the 20% range, and then you've got the other smaller ones, and they're going to be building. So when they announce a policy... we've all got to sit up and take some notice because they may be able to enact it if they get into power.
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Speaker 4: Or at least part of a policy.
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Speaker 1: But I feel like, you know, the small parties are behaving like sort of punks in the 70s who come out and going, God save the Queen, fascist regime. And then you've got the big parties that are sort of being very careful, like the Ming Vars politics, you know, carrying a Ming Vars across the dance floor without dropping it. And it's almost like you want the radical people to be a bit more sensible and the sensible people.
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Speaker 4: To be a bit more radical.
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Speaker 2: Well.
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Speaker 3: Well, I was just going to say that actually I think there's a couple of things happening. One is voters, to Barry's point, 30 years into MMP, they are thinking already about the coalitions rather than just the party that they want to vote for. And we're going into a new position where we've always had in coalition discussions, we've talked about the tail wagging the dog, the smaller party wagging the major party. This time round.
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Speaker 4: We've barely got a dog.
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Speaker 3: Well, or every dog feels that they're in the hunt this election.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, totally.
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Speaker 2: There's got to be a policy on dogs somewhere.
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Speaker 4: I'm down with that.
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Speaker 3: Ban them.
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Speaker 4: Just talk to Winston. When he's finished with the sunblock, he'll probably listen to that. Hey, I'll take a quick break. I want to come back. Because obviously, if these guys won the prize for predictability, somebody actually came out with a good policy. I have a theory on that. We'll come back to that shortly. It's quarter past. All right, it's 17 past four. You're back with the front bench. I'll start with you on this one, Josie. I actually reckon the policy of the weekend was ACT's policy. What do you think?
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Speaker 1: I certainly give them points for coming up with a big, hardcore policy. And I think what we're seeing in this election, one thing that's been really good is big debates around KiwiSaver, big debates around competition and so on. You know, so you've got pretty much consensus between National and Labour that there will be some form of compulsion and different variations of it. So National, you know, be compulsory for employees and employers at 6%. Labour's just saying, no, no, just employers. The reason for that, for Labour, as I understand it, is that they're going, well, employees need a bit of flexibility when, you know, things go wrong or income goes down. So, yeah, they've come up with a different one. Yeah, I don't think it's the best one, though, Heather, because... Partly what it's doing is shifting savings because why would you not put all your savings into KiwiSaver if you're going to get a tax-free benefit? So what it does is it shifts savings away from productive stuff like investing in your business into KiwiSaver.
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Speaker 4: But it's not. To some degree, yes. Your return on your business should be higher than what you're getting out of KiwiSaver. It's shifting savings from putting them into investments like rentals Into KiwiSaver, that's what we want.
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Speaker 1: We don't know. Yes, we do want that. But it's also, if you're thinking, right, I'll invest in my business. Oh, hold on a minute. I'll get interest free. I'll get no tax on my savings if I put it into KiwiSaver. But the other thing is you're losing the government contribution of about 230 bucks a year or something like that.
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Speaker 4: 260, yeah.
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Speaker 1: So therefore the benefits have to be, if you don't have a lot of money when you're investing into KiwiSaver, then okay, you're getting a tax benefit, but you're losing your 200 bucks. If you put in a lot of money into KiwiSaver because you've got a lot of savings, it's not really fair that you get that.
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Speaker 3: $ 200 lot higher. I know you said I'd have a boner for this in the break because I would like it.
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Speaker 4: That was off-air talk.
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Speaker 3: Because it was an ACT policy. But actually, there's a couple of points. I think as a business owner, I don't... think it's a choice between putting this into KiwiSaver or investing in your business. I think I would give ACT points because it is a very clearly differentiated policy and in my view that's probably where ACT is winning in these last weeks in the lead up to the campaign. They've sort of kept their powder dry and they've come at things from a first principles basis. So there's real clarity around it. I do think, though, however, on KiwiSaver, I love it that it's been a massive policy this election. The government contributions now are sort of neither here nor there for a lot of people. And with other ideas around KiwiSaver, it's take that money and put it into the baby boost. So you get the benefit of that extra 18 years of compound tax.
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Speaker 2: Interests.
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Speaker 3: But yeah, points to act for clarity on this one.
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Speaker 2: But the thing is, it's not a unique idea. I mean, it's been done in many countries overseas. Australia still imposes tax on investment through their savings for retirement plans. So it's not as though they've come up with this amazing policy and saying, look, we've come out of the blue and we've created this because it's not a novel policy. But No, it's not a bad one, but I heard Chris Luxon being asked about it this morning on radio, what he thought of it, and he said, well, I haven't really read it. I don't think he's read anything.
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Speaker 4: Just stop that, because he's read basically nothing.
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Speaker 2: By the sounds of this. No, no, let me finish. He said.
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Speaker 1: You finish, Barry.
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Speaker 4: Don't you go, Barry.
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Speaker 2: Well, I feel a bit outnumbered here.
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Speaker 1: It's your time to shine, Barry. I want to call this the front bottom.
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Speaker 4: Barry, this is such a good statement.
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Speaker 3: I can't wait.
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Speaker 4: This should be the front bottom.
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Speaker 1: And you are our plus one, Barry. This is the front bottom.
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Speaker 4: Well, I need to have a chat to you guys about the potty talk being off the radio. No, go Barry. We can't wait, Barry.
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Speaker 3: No, no, no.
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Speaker 2: What he said was, and this is what probably is indicative of this campaign. Great point, Barry. Great point. He said... He said, well, I haven't had a detailed look at it, and it could be quite expensive were his words, which is absolutely true. It could be quite expensive if you're not taxing investment. So where do you find that money from that you're naturally getting out? Party of tax cuts, though.
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Speaker 4: It's true to their principles. All right, we'll take a break. I want to come back and talk about Labour's fiscal. Great point, though, Barry.
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Speaker 2: Great point. The weight. Yes! 422.
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Speaker 4: Listen, I tell you what, it's 24 past four. I was going to talk about Labour and the fiscal strategy here, but we really need to do it justice and we don't have the time. So we'll save it up. We'll do it after the news coming up shortly. Quickly on New Zealand First, I don't know if you caught this, but they've got a candidate called Darrell Habracken who was on a panel and said, quite rightly, he said the right thing. He said he didn't support the government's cap on the donations tax credit because it's frankly dumb. OK, so that's why you.
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Speaker 3: Are you speaking for yourself or for your party when you say you don't support the cap?
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Speaker 2: Both. Well, the party didn't vote for the cap.
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Speaker 4: Well, they voted for it, so.
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Speaker 3: Oh, did they?
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Speaker 2: I'm for it.
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Speaker 4: All for it. It's great.
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Speaker 2: Bring it in.
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Speaker 4: You might be in trouble with Winston after this. Defend your mate, Winston. Come on, Barry.
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Speaker 2: Well, no, that was your boyfriend, Goldie, that pulled him up. Yeah, quite right.
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Speaker 4: Goldie knew the facts about you.
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Speaker 1: How many boyfriends have you guys got between you?
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Speaker 2: But look, it gets back to the fact, doesn't it, in election campaigns, you've got candidates out there that really aren't across what their party has been advocating. And this Harbouracken guy, if that's his name... because I had a look at it earlier and I thought, well, you know, this guy really should be across that because he is in the arts. It was a conversation about the arts and he obviously didn't know the New Zealand First policy, which, of course, all candidates should know if they go on to a panel like that.
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Speaker 1: This is a policy, actually the substance of it is really bad. I mean, I work for a charity. We depend on people paying big donations or leaving bequests or something like that. So it actually really affects us, and it's a stupid thing. It's a Nicola Willis idea, isn't it? Yeah, and a lot of people on the left and the right are saying this is nuts because if you don't allow big donations, you're going to have to do more government funding.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, too right. But where's Winston, Trish?
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Speaker 3: Well, I don't know, but just to pick up on that, I think it's a nickel and diamond idea because actually rather than go after the big fish, which has changed the charitable status for those very big trusts which have a lot of money.
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Speaker 4: Like Sanitaria.
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Speaker 2: You've got it.
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Speaker 4: Exactly.
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Speaker 2: Exactly.
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Speaker 3: Deal with that. They went after this. I mean, this one, it's not material to the campaign, thank goodness, but there will be some absolute clingers.
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Speaker 1: Where is Winston?
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Speaker 3: Well, I saw Winston today on Instagram, and he was trying out an electric scooter out in South Auckland with a couple of security guards. Well, it didn't look bad to me, the clip I saw. And, in fact, here's what I thought about Winston.
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Speaker 2: There he is.
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Speaker 3: He looks a million and one bucks.
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Speaker 4: He looks dapper.
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Speaker 1: Not like Joe Biden on a bike.
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Speaker 2: He's in a smart casual.
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Speaker 3: And his smart casual is not bad dad jeans and a terrible fit.
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Speaker 4: It's double-breasted.
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Speaker 3: It's a black turtleneck and great shoes. And these young guys. they were just frothing on Winston. But what I loved at the end of the clip, so he puts one foot on and then obviously goes, at my age, this is a ridiculous idea. He didn't say it out loud. And then just flashed that million dollar smile and the whole place just lit up.
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Speaker 1: Can I just say one thing though about these candidates way down on the list that start to sort of, explode as you get closer I know it's quite fun isn't it which is wonderful but what you realise.
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Speaker 4: My money's on Helen White of Labour by the way she's going to have a fizzer at some.
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Speaker 1: Stage what you realise is that you know no one knows their names they get voted in on the list or whatever they get into Parliament they stay there for three years no one still knows their name they make about as much waves as a fart in the bath.
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Speaker 4: Oh lord more potty talk the kindred teachers have banned my four and a half year old by the way he gets no chocolate the next day in his lunchbox if he carries on like.
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Speaker 2: That but I give him some But you sneak it to him.
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Speaker 3: All right.
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Speaker 4: We're going to take the news, actually, which is coming upon us very fast. And then after that, Labour's fiscal strategy. Does it add up? Do you believe it? And have we found the new star of Labour who might, in fact, save this party from themselves? News is next. Newstalk ZB. Newstalk ZB.
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Speaker 2: Thrashing out the big issues.
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Speaker 4: The Front Bench on Heather Duplessy Allen Drive.
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Speaker 2: Newstalk ZB.
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Speaker 4: By the way, I don't know if you've been following it, but that woman they tried to execute in Tennessee last week is still alive and in hospital. It's kind of ironic, isn't it? The state tries to kill her and now the state's trying to keep her alive. It's like they can't quite decide what they're doing. Anyway, Joel Zivett is an anesthesiologist who reckons he knows what went wrong, which is that she had small veins. He will be with us after five o'clock. It's now 24 away from five. And of course, you are back with the front bench. We have Barry Sobatrish-Herson and Joseph Ogani with us. Josie, do you believe Labour's actually going to deliver on this fiscal strategy that they released yesterday?
00:17:15
Speaker 1: I think they'll deliver on the fiscal... Policy, yep, the plan.
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Speaker 2: Why?
00:17:19
Speaker 1: But not the pay equity because that's, I mean, you're looking at that and you're going, that's just not possible. So it's interesting what they're doing. I mean, National's calling it a big, you know, $ 18 billion hole or something or $ 12 billion hole. I think what's happening is that they're going to do a one-off payment, like they've said, so it's about $ 2. 4 billion, you know, quick pay rise for workers, care workers on the lowest income and good on them. That's the thing a Labour government should do. And then I think they're just going to tease it out. I don't think you will ever see that pay equity promise come to fruition because they can't afford it. I mean, they can't afford it without.
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Speaker 2: People tend to forget what pay equity is about as well. People tend to say, oh, pay equity is equal pay. Well, it's not actually. It's comparing one industry with another industry, predominantly male, female, and then saying, well, you know, they should get the same as them. The care workers that they're going to look after... they're compared to mental health workers. Well, I think if you're a mental health worker, and there's no insult to people that look after elderly people, I think they're wonderful. But they're probably not trained to the extent that mental health workers are. But nevertheless, they're being compared to them. So they go, Labour goes, so they need to, their wages need to be brought up because mental health workers are predominantly male.
00:18:36
Speaker 1: I think the case is fair, Barry. I do think there is a case to make for, because most of those aged care workers or cleaners or whatever, they're on the minimum wage. And, you know, bloody hard to live on the minimum wage, right? So there's a case to be made for pay equity. I just think the reality is when you look at that fiscal plan, there's no way they can use that $ 10 billion of operating money, which is there for, you know, if your negotiations with other teachers, police, whatever … They go a bit higher than expected.
00:19:06
Speaker 4: You've answered my question, which is, do you think that Labour is going to deliver on its fiscal plan? And your answer was basically no, because they're going to have to shelve their pay equity plan to deliver.
00:19:15
Speaker 1: Yes, but I think they're planning. Who knows? I think they're planning to do that anyway, and they will deliver on the parts of their fiscal plan. And good on them for doing that.
00:19:21
Speaker 2: Do you know what they've done with their fiscal plan? They've become copycats for the national party.
00:19:25
Speaker 4: Yeah, they're trying to narrow the gap.
00:19:26
Speaker 2: If you look at the figures and go through the figures as I've done, then you would see national, but almost exactly like the deficit deficit. And what have you, or the surplus, I should say.
00:19:37
Speaker 1: Yeah, same year.
00:19:39
Speaker 4: Okay, so Trish, why I'm asking this question is because if you look at what Labour said they were going to do six weeks ago, when they initially delivered like a broad fiscal strategy, and then compare it to what they delivered yesterday, it's like a schizophrenic party. They're two completely different things. Six weeks ago, core crown spending would be 33% of GDP. Yesterday, it's 30%, 30.5%.
00:20:00
Speaker 2: Same as National.
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Speaker 4: The difference between that is like billions and billions and billions of dollars.
00:20:05
Speaker 1: So you choose, Foo.
00:20:06
Speaker 4: Which one are they really going to do?
00:20:08
Speaker 3: Well, I think it comes back to what we were talking about before. Both these major parties are in a panic and they are making things up as they go along. Let's remember that both for National and Labour... their future plans are predicated on the Treasury's forecast, which, again, are relatively heroic assumptions.
00:20:28
Speaker 4: Over the next three years.
00:20:29
Speaker 2: And never that accurate.
00:20:31
Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly. Like always inaccurate. Exactly.
00:20:35
Speaker 3: And the other thing with Labour is, and I would say this to voters when you're looking at all the political parties' policies, Don't just focus on what they're telling you they're going to spend your money on. Focus on finding out what they are going to cut in order to be able to do this because there's so little crumbs in the cupboard here. that parties have to be much more upfront about that.
00:21:02
Speaker 1: Which is why I think they're not going to do the pay equity right, because there's no way a Labour government is going to cut funding to police, health, well, health's separate, isn't it? But schools, and we're going to have a big defence budget coming up. There's no way.
00:21:17
Speaker 3: But remember why they want to have pay equity out in the conversation, because we've probably all forgotten, but The pay equity, the secret national pay equity bomb that was landed, what, a year and a bit ago– In my view, that was one of the most damaging things for Nationals women's vote. So Labour wants us back on the table because it's in a.
00:21:38
Speaker 2: It was brought in by Bill English in 2017. Exactly, Barry. So it was a National Party policy that they've gone totally backwards.
00:21:46
Speaker 1: But I think Barbara Edmonds is treading a really careful balance here. One of the problems for her, because I think you're right, Heather, I think she is the standout star in Labour.
00:21:54
Speaker 4: Oh, I haven't even said it yet. Oh, sorry.
00:21:57
Speaker 1: I told you that in secret. Do your introduction then, Barry.
00:22:01
Speaker 4: Is Barbara Edmonds the star of the Labour Party?
00:22:03
Speaker 1: What Barry would like to say is yes.
00:22:06
Speaker 2: I'll tell you what, I was doing a book tour. I've written a book. Oh, have you written a book?
00:22:10
Speaker 4: I'm glad you mentioned it, Barry.
00:22:12
Speaker 1: Is it a children's book?
00:22:14
Speaker 2: And I was down in Queenstown and somebody asked me, they said, oh, who would be a natural leader after Chris Hipkins of the Labour Party? And I said, well, not Kieran McAnulty.
00:22:26
Speaker 4: No, angry eyes, angry eyes.
00:22:28
Speaker 2: I said, Barbara Edmonds. And somebody came up to me later, an old lady, and she said, you know, Barry, that's exactly my idea. And she does. She has credibility, whether she speaks the truth or not is another matter. But even in the fiscal plan, I thought she was very articulate.
00:22:46
Speaker 1: Well, I think she has a personality.
00:22:49
Speaker 3: And what I have heard, Barbara Edmonds has a real warmth about her. And in a room she is.
00:22:54
Speaker 2: Hey, kids.
00:22:55
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, don't even get me started on that.
00:22:57
Speaker 4: Well, that would make you not warm.
00:23:00
Speaker 3: But what I've heard is, so Labour, don't forget, one of their big issues is how do you drag the business community over? How do you build back credibility with them? And so the refrain that I've often heard is, look, Think Barbara is amazing, can't vote for Labour.
00:23:14
Speaker 4: Yeah.
00:23:15
Speaker 1: So she's got a problem in that she's trying to juggle stuff which is undermining what she's trying to do, which is actually pro-business, pro-growth. And you've got another bit of the Labour Party which is quite happy to de-industrialise New Zealand, ban oil and gas again, right? So she's trying to juggle all of this. But you're absolutely right. I think she's got– she keeps Labour– firmly footed on struggle strength.
00:23:39
Speaker 4: And she's the only.
00:23:39
Speaker 1: One who does.
00:23:40
Speaker 2: She looks good.
00:23:41
Speaker 4: She's very credible.
00:23:42
Speaker 2: Just listen to the articulate way she speaks.
00:23:45
Speaker 4: She's got a sharp black suit at the moment.
00:23:47
Speaker 3: I tell you what to watch too is upcoming, and this is near the election, but in the mood of the boardroom, the big business breakfast they have here in Auckland where you often have Nicola Willis and Barbara Edmonds Last year there was a real difference in warmth and tone between those two, and I think that's where Barbara Edmonds wins some over in the room.
00:24:05
Speaker 4: And I think she's got a bit better with politics in the meantime. Listen, let's take a break, and afterwards I want to spend some time talking about Labour, but I want to discuss the shambles that is National's campaign at the moment, 16 away from five. 14 away from 5am. Last night I was watching the news and I was a bit struck at how hard Nicola Willis went on Labour.
00:24:30
Speaker 3: Labour has openly chosen to lie.
00:24:33
Speaker 4: The context is that her comment was about Labour's fiscal plan which was released yesterday not accounting for all spending. That statement that they have left enough money aside for those things is just a lie. It doesn't add up. Trish, is that too much?
00:24:47
Speaker 3: Well, where does National need to get votes from if it's really going to make a difference? It has to win them across from those centre voters from Labour. You know, there's that lovely old saying, you catch more flies with sugar than vinegar. And I think if you are just constantly out there harping about Labour, you're not going to attract people over. I just think that that... Again, you know, you've got all this little bitsy stuff and fragmentation going on. You've got National in a complete panic because it's fighting two campaigns. It's fighting Labour and it's fighting Act in New Zealand First on its flank. And because of that, they have lost sight of what is the big defining idea for this election, not, you know.
00:25:37
Speaker 1: $ 2.
00:25:37
Speaker 3: 50 off here, $ 5 off here. What is the big idea that defines New Zealand and that New Zealanders can really get behind? And in my view... That is what New Zealand is after eight years of eight tough years. They want politicians who can lift their eyes up above the horizon and go, hey.
00:25:54
Speaker 2: Guys, here's where we're heading. And lift their eyes above other parties. I mean, there's an old idiom in politics that you don't concentrate on. Is that you, the old idiom in politics? Oh, yeah, have a laugh at Barry.
00:26:07
Speaker 4: He's written a book, Trish. There is.
00:26:10
Speaker 2: But there is, you know, you ignore your enemy, basically, and you talk about what you're doing. But just to get back to the lying thing, I think, you know, I know, you know, exception has been taken to Nicola Willis saying that they were lying. Have a listen to Chris Hipkins, for goodness sake. Bullshit was the word that he used in his campaign opening speech. And he's accused them of lying all the way through, particularly about the nine new taxes. And in a way, you know, the nine new taxes is boring because you've got one tax essentially from Labour and the rest are the other riffraff that could form part of the government.
00:26:47
Speaker 1: It's also, Barry, that it's not just... boring it's not the thing that voters are saying is the thing for them and that's the problem for them I think I mean this is the most strategically chaotic campaign I have ever seen from National and you know I've seen chaotic campaigns from other parties but this just seems I don't they're focusing so much on tax that if you ask Christopher Luxon what he had for breakfast he'd go well I can't I can't remember because I haven't read it but what I can say is nine new taxers And so it actually becomes this thing that you stop hearing, like you stop seeing the high-vis vests, the yellow high-vis vests.
00:27:21
Speaker 2: On the road. I think the sad thing for him, in a way, Luxon, and I know him pretty well because I've written a book.
00:27:27
Speaker 3: Do you?
00:27:27
Speaker 2: Do you know.
00:27:29
Speaker 1: Quite a few famous people, Barry?
00:27:31
Speaker 3: I know what makes.
00:27:32
Speaker 2: A good Prime Minister, obviously. But, you know, the thing about Christopher Luxon, you know, I actually quite like the man. And I think if he gets out, as he has been doing, out and among the public, And talking to them, people genuinely warm to him. They like him. They don't see him as this removed executive.
00:27:49
Speaker 1: Although, standing there in their blue jackets, smiling, waving policies around.
00:27:54
Speaker 2: Well, it's no worse than standing there in a red jacket.
00:27:56
Speaker 1: Well, no, but there's a lot of blue jackets somewhere, and they all look like a boy band that got back together from the 80s.
00:28:01
Speaker 3: Don't you just feel like you just want to stuff them back into Wellington? You just want to put them all back in the box? Because it seems to me there's two things.
00:28:10
Speaker 4: Number one.
00:28:11
Speaker 3: In the House, and Barry will know this because he knows standing orders inside out, but under the rules in Parliament, you can't call someone a liar and you can't call them a hypocrite. But unfortunately, when we're unleashed out into the wild, I don't think I've ever seen this word liar be used so much in an election campaign. And it's unedifying and I don't think voters.
00:28:32
Speaker 4: Like it at all.
00:28:33
Speaker 1: Also, you don't win elections without being hopeful and you don't actually win people over. If you think of some of the great... You've met Nelson Mandela. I know that, Barry. You think of people like Nelson Mandela, Martin Luther King, you think of them smiling, right? You think of these great political leaders as smiling and looking up to the skies. And there's something so negative about National's campaign. And you compare it to Burnham as well.
00:28:54
Speaker 2: But I would say the total campaign, I don't think it's only National. I think Labour as well.
00:28:59
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's fair. They're worse.
00:29:02
Speaker 1: Everybody's campaigning like an opposition party.
00:29:04
Speaker 2: The only friendly campaign is the Opportunity Party that... have now no real bottom line.
00:29:09
Speaker 1: So bland, you'd stand in front of a page.
00:29:11
Speaker 4: I've got to take a break. I've got to take a break. Just quickly before I take a break, just a reminder that one of the men in blue, Chris Bishop, is going to be there after five o'clock to sell us the Mill Road upgrade and why he's actually going to do it this time. And also the 800 Mill going to Belfast to Pegasus, that motorway down south, nine away from five. All right, you're back with the front bench. It's six minutes away from five. Before we go, guys, I was just saying to you off the news that we've got, just off the air, that we have a poll from One News tonight and I think we have polls now. every Monday from here on in. So what is the one thing that each of you are looking at in this poll tonight, Josie?
00:29:43
Speaker 1: I'll look at where opportunity is. I think, and I think I'm right, that there will be no change for Labour and National because nothing has happened that would change people's minds. I think they'll still be hovering around that 28, 29, 30 mark.
00:29:55
Speaker 2: You stole the words right out of my mouth. Well, Barry, tell us about your book.
00:29:58
Speaker 4: That's exactly what I'm thinking. You've got nothing else.
00:30:01
Speaker 3: What about your gong, Barry?
00:30:02
Speaker 4: What about that gong that you got?
00:30:03
Speaker 2: Oh, for goodness sake.
00:30:05
Speaker 1: What was Nelson Mandela like?
00:30:08
Speaker 3: What about Abraham Lincoln on that campaign?
00:30:10
Speaker 2: Do you want to hear about Heather's favourite topic, Rob Muldoon? Oh, no. You are the boyfriend.
00:30:16
Speaker 4: What are you looking for in the poll? Silence?
00:30:22
Speaker 2: Silence is golden. I don't think it will be a golden poll for either of the major parties. And that does bring into question, I know David Seymour has done it today, the poll of polls. When you've got, you know, big parties collapsing and smaller parties like the ACT Party collapsing the way it has done, of course the poll of polls is going to.
00:30:43
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll talk about the poll of polls later because it does take a bit of explanation. But opportunity across the 5% for you?
00:30:48
Speaker 2: They'll be very close to it. Okay, for sure.
00:30:52
Speaker 3: Yeah, opportunity is really the one to watch. I think they're going to start probably blinking in and out of the five as this starts to firm up. I think maybe where they have missed is there is only 61% of younger voters who had registered as at 23 September. So potentially that's an issue. What I think we watch for is, is there any shift between the left and the right block overall? And within that, in the minor parties, who is hitting their straps from voters' perspective in these final weeks? So my prediction is potentially ACT has timed their run right. New Zealand First might be coming back a bit. I think the Greens vote will probably... come back a bit. So those would be my things to watch. But the National Party and the Labour Party still hovering below 30? I just cannot see anything, as Josie said, from them that has actually captured people's attention.
00:31:42
Speaker 1: All tail, no dog.
00:31:44
Speaker 2: And I cannot believe that the Greens are polling the way some polls have said, up to 16%.
00:31:50
Speaker 1: No.
00:31:51
Speaker 2: I don't believe that, I'm afraid.
00:31:52
Speaker 1: That's an anti-Labour vote.
00:31:54
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, it would be that, yeah.
00:31:56
Speaker 4: Yeah, it would be, yeah, absolutely.
00:31:57
Speaker 3: And also a very different thing when you've got someone on the phone to actually when you go into that voting booth. So that's why I say with opportunity that that could really change.
00:32:06
Speaker 4: Yeah, totally. Now, listen, guys, thank you very much. It's lovely to have you in the studio, and I'm already looking forward to next Monday, 4 o'clock, and we can do it all again. We have Barry Soper, Senior Political Correspondent, Trish Sherson. of Shearson Willis and Joseph Ogani, the Child Fund Chief Executive. We're talking to Chris Bishop after the news, going to chat to him about Mill Road and how we can be sure that he's actually going to do it again, especially six weeks after pulling out of the contract negotiations with the homeowners along that bit. But also, you'll have seen what's going on with cricket over the weekend. Sir Richard Hadley writing the letter, Leslie Murdoch getting involved in that as well. So what on earth is going on? Why now? What are they upset about? We'll get you across that as well in the next half hour or so. Coming up, five o'clock, Newstalk ZB. I'm going to stay in construction. Building and.
00:33:02
Speaker 1: Building and building until I can't function at all. Silence is golden. It's golden. It's golden.
00:33:10
Speaker 3: Silence is golden.
00:33:11
Speaker 4: It's golden.
00:33:11
Speaker 1: It's golden.
Speaker 1: Thrashing out the big issues.
00:00:03
Speaker 2: Analyzing the facts. Throwing out the fiction. Hearing what matters.
00:00:07
Speaker 3: No topic off limits. No holding back.
00:00:09
Speaker 2: No scripts. No rules. No bull.
00:00:12
Speaker 3: Barry Soper.
00:00:13
Speaker 2: Josie Pagani. Trish Shearson.
00:00:15
Speaker 3: Heather Dupacy-Allen.
00:00:16
Speaker 1: The Front Bench.
00:00:17
Speaker 3: On your home for election 2026.
00:00:18
Speaker 2: Newstalk ZB.
00:00:21
Speaker 4: Right, welcome to the show. Slightly different today, obviously, and different every Monday throughout the election because we are now in full campaign mode as we wind the clock down. We're going to have the front bench shortly. It's a full hour of politics for you. And then after that, Chris Bishop on reviving Mill Road yet again. We'll get you across what the hell is going on with cricket at the moment. And most Kiwis don't expect the government to fund their weight loss jabs. That's after 6.30. The Front Bench. All right. Is there anything more predictable in an election campaign than the Green Party promising more trains and the National Party promising to build roads? And that is what has just happened at the last weekend. Obviously, you shouldn't believe the Greens that they're going to get you more trains because they will never get any leading party in government to give them enough money for these expensive trains. But you would also be a fool to believe National, especially with regard to their promise yesterday to build Mill Road. just south of Auckland, because let me remind you of the recent history of Mill Road. In 2017, National promised to build Mill Road if they won the election. They obviously didn't win the election, so Labour came in and scrapped the promise. And then in early 2022, because it was election year again, Labour promised to build Mill Road again, and then they scrapped it again because they never really meant to build it in the first place because Labour never actually wanted to build roads. And then in 2023, because it was election year again, National promised to build Mill Road. And then this year they scrapped it and they put it in the go slow lane for the roads of national significance because they probably never really meant to build it because they knew they never had the money to pay for it because they had frozen the petrol tax for three years already and there wasn't enough money in the road building kitty. And then five and a half weeks ago, and we covered this on the show, we found out that NZTA had stopped buying the properties needed for for Mill Road if they were really going to do the upgrade, and they'd started emailing the landowners and cancelling the contracts. So do you really believe, not even six weeks after cancelling the plans with the people who own the land that would be required, that all of a sudden, we're going to build the road again, and we're going to start emailing them again and go, whoops, sorry, contract's back on. It's not real. And even if it is real, National will have trouble convincing people to believe it's real because fool me once, etc., But do you see what I mean when I say there is nothing more predictable than trains from the Greens and roads from National in an election? Mill Road has literally been promised now for four elections straight. Have you got it?
00:02:38
Speaker 2: Nah.
00:02:39
Speaker 4: The Front Bench.
00:02:41
Speaker 3: All right.
00:02:42
Speaker 4: Joining me on the Front Bench, let me welcome in the A crew. We have Barry Soper, senior political correspondent, Trish Sherson, Sherson Willis, PR, Josie Begani. Child Fund Chief Executive. Hello, all of you.
00:02:51
Speaker 2: Hello.
00:02:52
Speaker 4: Now, somebody's mic is not on.
00:02:53
Speaker 2: That's yours.
00:02:53
Speaker 4: Oh, Your Majesty, Trish. Let me do that for you. Now, big campaign, weekend of campaigns, Trish, obviously. We had the prize for predictability, I think, going to the National Party and the Greens. What do you say?
00:03:07
Speaker 2: Absolutely.
00:03:07
Speaker 3: And just to pick up on your point, I think this mill road is emblematic of why National and Labour are bleeding votes to other parties because they just make the same old promises every election year and the voters this time aren't buying it.
00:03:24
Speaker 4: We've been here once. We've been here twice. In fact, we've been here thrice. And this is now the fourth time and we're not going to suck this one in.
00:03:30
Speaker 1: Are we?
00:03:30
Speaker 3: And eight Rons don't make a right. I mean, the roads of national significance, they're on, they're off. And in three years now, we've managed to build a new framework for how we prioritise them, but we still haven't got any tarmac on the road.
00:03:44
Speaker 1: I reckon I just missed the memo when public transport became left wing and roads became right wing. Like back in the 40s. It used to be that Labour ministers would actually open a road with lots of trumpets and fanfare and ribbons.
00:03:58
Speaker 2: And bowling hats.
00:04:00
Speaker 4: They had the Ministry of Works.
00:04:02
Speaker 2: Yes.
00:04:02
Speaker 1: Why hadn't you that Labour Party?
00:04:03
Speaker 4: What I think, though, on National, Barry, this screams to me of desperation. It's almost as if, like the supermarket policy, they've suddenly decided to do something and they've announced it on the hoof and it wasn't actually part.
00:04:15
Speaker 2: Of the plan. That's what the campaign's all about, isn't it? I was talking to somebody, a very well-known person here in Auckland the other day, And I said, what do you think? And he said, it's messy. And this campaign has been very messy. You've got, you know, the roads of national significance. They are back on track again. And in the meantime, with all those promises that have been made by the political parties, Drury is expected now to have a population of about 134,000 people within a few years. So they do need roading into that part of the city. And the longer they delay it, the more traffic jams we're going to have in the city and no one wants that. So it has to be on the agenda. But who's going to come up with the money to stump up a new road?
00:05:01
Speaker 3: Well, I was talking to some people over the weekend, not very well known, actually my neighbours, and they really... They summed up what people are saying about this election. They said, we just do not know who to vote for. That is the refrain I'm hearing most often. And the reason for that, people are saying... it is just so messy and fragmented. So you've got the vote fragmenting, you've got the major parties going after, you know, $ 5, $ 3, $ 2 in your household budget, when in fact this election is a four-letter word election, D-E-B-T. So where is the party telling us how much per week we're racking up in our national debt and what they're actually going to do about it?
00:05:43
Speaker 2: It's the economy, Stephen.
00:05:44
Speaker 1: Do you know what it feels like? To me, it feels like those really bad PowerPoints you see where there's a diagram with arrows going, you know, F right up and down, circles and triangles running. Your eye doesn't know where to look. And it feels like there's just multiple policies, especially from the smaller parties, but even the bigger parties, some really weird ones. Like New Zealand first announced this weekend with subsidised sunscreen. And you're going, whoa. When was that priority? And so you just feel like you don't know where to look in this really bad PowerPoint slide.
00:06:15
Speaker 2: Why we've got now this plethora of promises is that this is, in my view, the first real MMP election. You've got the two major parties in the 20% range, and then you've got the other smaller ones, and they're going to be building. So when they announce a policy... we've all got to sit up and take some notice because they may be able to enact it if they get into power.
00:06:39
Speaker 4: Or at least part of a policy.
00:06:40
Speaker 1: But I feel like, you know, the small parties are behaving like sort of punks in the 70s who come out and going, God save the Queen, fascist regime. And then you've got the big parties that are sort of being very careful, like the Ming Vars politics, you know, carrying a Ming Vars across the dance floor without dropping it. And it's almost like you want the radical people to be a bit more sensible and the sensible people.
00:07:01
Speaker 4: To be a bit more radical.
00:07:02
Speaker 2: Well.
00:07:03
Speaker 3: Well, I was just going to say that actually I think there's a couple of things happening. One is voters, to Barry's point, 30 years into MMP, they are thinking already about the coalitions rather than just the party that they want to vote for. And we're going into a new position where we've always had in coalition discussions, we've talked about the tail wagging the dog, the smaller party wagging the major party. This time round.
00:07:25
Speaker 4: We've barely got a dog.
00:07:26
Speaker 3: Well, or every dog feels that they're in the hunt this election.
00:07:30
Speaker 4: Yeah, totally.
00:07:30
Speaker 2: There's got to be a policy on dogs somewhere.
00:07:32
Speaker 4: I'm down with that.
00:07:34
Speaker 3: Ban them.
00:07:34
Speaker 4: Just talk to Winston. When he's finished with the sunblock, he'll probably listen to that. Hey, I'll take a quick break. I want to come back. Because obviously, if these guys won the prize for predictability, somebody actually came out with a good policy. I have a theory on that. We'll come back to that shortly. It's quarter past. All right, it's 17 past four. You're back with the front bench. I'll start with you on this one, Josie. I actually reckon the policy of the weekend was ACT's policy. What do you think?
00:07:57
Speaker 1: I certainly give them points for coming up with a big, hardcore policy. And I think what we're seeing in this election, one thing that's been really good is big debates around KiwiSaver, big debates around competition and so on. You know, so you've got pretty much consensus between National and Labour that there will be some form of compulsion and different variations of it. So National, you know, be compulsory for employees and employers at 6%. Labour's just saying, no, no, just employers. The reason for that, for Labour, as I understand it, is that they're going, well, employees need a bit of flexibility when, you know, things go wrong or income goes down. So, yeah, they've come up with a different one. Yeah, I don't think it's the best one, though, Heather, because... Partly what it's doing is shifting savings because why would you not put all your savings into KiwiSaver if you're going to get a tax-free benefit? So what it does is it shifts savings away from productive stuff like investing in your business into KiwiSaver.
00:08:56
Speaker 4: But it's not. To some degree, yes. Your return on your business should be higher than what you're getting out of KiwiSaver. It's shifting savings from putting them into investments like rentals Into KiwiSaver, that's what we want.
00:09:10
Speaker 1: We don't know. Yes, we do want that. But it's also, if you're thinking, right, I'll invest in my business. Oh, hold on a minute. I'll get interest free. I'll get no tax on my savings if I put it into KiwiSaver. But the other thing is you're losing the government contribution of about 230 bucks a year or something like that.
00:09:27
Speaker 4: 260, yeah.
00:09:27
Speaker 1: So therefore the benefits have to be, if you don't have a lot of money when you're investing into KiwiSaver, then okay, you're getting a tax benefit, but you're losing your 200 bucks. If you put in a lot of money into KiwiSaver because you've got a lot of savings, it's not really fair that you get that.
00:09:43
Speaker 3: $ 200 lot higher. I know you said I'd have a boner for this in the break because I would like it.
00:09:48
Speaker 4: That was off-air talk.
00:09:54
Speaker 3: Because it was an ACT policy. But actually, there's a couple of points. I think as a business owner, I don't... think it's a choice between putting this into KiwiSaver or investing in your business. I think I would give ACT points because it is a very clearly differentiated policy and in my view that's probably where ACT is winning in these last weeks in the lead up to the campaign. They've sort of kept their powder dry and they've come at things from a first principles basis. So there's real clarity around it. I do think, though, however, on KiwiSaver, I love it that it's been a massive policy this election. The government contributions now are sort of neither here nor there for a lot of people. And with other ideas around KiwiSaver, it's take that money and put it into the baby boost. So you get the benefit of that extra 18 years of compound tax.
00:10:44
Speaker 2: Interests.
00:10:45
Speaker 3: But yeah, points to act for clarity on this one.
00:10:47
Speaker 2: But the thing is, it's not a unique idea. I mean, it's been done in many countries overseas. Australia still imposes tax on investment through their savings for retirement plans. So it's not as though they've come up with this amazing policy and saying, look, we've come out of the blue and we've created this because it's not a novel policy. But No, it's not a bad one, but I heard Chris Luxon being asked about it this morning on radio, what he thought of it, and he said, well, I haven't really read it. I don't think he's read anything.
00:11:20
Speaker 4: Just stop that, because he's read basically nothing.
00:11:22
Speaker 2: By the sounds of this. No, no, let me finish. He said.
00:11:26
Speaker 1: You finish, Barry.
00:11:27
Speaker 4: Don't you go, Barry.
00:11:29
Speaker 2: Well, I feel a bit outnumbered here.
00:11:31
Speaker 1: It's your time to shine, Barry. I want to call this the front bottom.
00:11:33
Speaker 4: Barry, this is such a good statement.
00:11:35
Speaker 3: I can't wait.
00:11:35
Speaker 4: This should be the front bottom.
00:11:36
Speaker 1: And you are our plus one, Barry. This is the front bottom.
00:11:40
Speaker 4: Well, I need to have a chat to you guys about the potty talk being off the radio. No, go Barry. We can't wait, Barry.
00:11:46
Speaker 3: No, no, no.
00:11:46
Speaker 2: What he said was, and this is what probably is indicative of this campaign. Great point, Barry. Great point. He said... He said, well, I haven't had a detailed look at it, and it could be quite expensive were his words, which is absolutely true. It could be quite expensive if you're not taxing investment. So where do you find that money from that you're naturally getting out? Party of tax cuts, though.
00:12:09
Speaker 4: It's true to their principles. All right, we'll take a break. I want to come back and talk about Labour's fiscal. Great point, though, Barry.
00:12:14
Speaker 2: Great point. The weight. Yes! 422.
00:12:27
Speaker 4: Listen, I tell you what, it's 24 past four. I was going to talk about Labour and the fiscal strategy here, but we really need to do it justice and we don't have the time. So we'll save it up. We'll do it after the news coming up shortly. Quickly on New Zealand First, I don't know if you caught this, but they've got a candidate called Darrell Habracken who was on a panel and said, quite rightly, he said the right thing. He said he didn't support the government's cap on the donations tax credit because it's frankly dumb. OK, so that's why you.
00:12:53
Speaker 3: Are you speaking for yourself or for your party when you say you don't support the cap?
00:12:56
Speaker 2: Both. Well, the party didn't vote for the cap.
00:12:59
Speaker 4: Well, they voted for it, so.
00:13:01
Speaker 3: Oh, did they?
00:13:02
Speaker 2: I'm for it.
00:13:03
Speaker 4: All for it. It's great.
00:13:04
Speaker 2: Bring it in.
00:13:05
Speaker 4: You might be in trouble with Winston after this. Defend your mate, Winston. Come on, Barry.
00:13:11
Speaker 2: Well, no, that was your boyfriend, Goldie, that pulled him up. Yeah, quite right.
00:13:16
Speaker 4: Goldie knew the facts about you.
00:13:17
Speaker 1: How many boyfriends have you guys got between you?
00:13:20
Speaker 2: But look, it gets back to the fact, doesn't it, in election campaigns, you've got candidates out there that really aren't across what their party has been advocating. And this Harbouracken guy, if that's his name... because I had a look at it earlier and I thought, well, you know, this guy really should be across that because he is in the arts. It was a conversation about the arts and he obviously didn't know the New Zealand First policy, which, of course, all candidates should know if they go on to a panel like that.
00:13:51
Speaker 1: This is a policy, actually the substance of it is really bad. I mean, I work for a charity. We depend on people paying big donations or leaving bequests or something like that. So it actually really affects us, and it's a stupid thing. It's a Nicola Willis idea, isn't it? Yeah, and a lot of people on the left and the right are saying this is nuts because if you don't allow big donations, you're going to have to do more government funding.
00:14:13
Speaker 4: Yeah, too right. But where's Winston, Trish?
00:14:15
Speaker 3: Well, I don't know, but just to pick up on that, I think it's a nickel and diamond idea because actually rather than go after the big fish, which has changed the charitable status for those very big trusts which have a lot of money.
00:14:26
Speaker 4: Like Sanitaria.
00:14:28
Speaker 2: You've got it.
00:14:28
Speaker 4: Exactly.
00:14:29
Speaker 2: Exactly.
00:14:30
Speaker 3: Deal with that. They went after this. I mean, this one, it's not material to the campaign, thank goodness, but there will be some absolute clingers.
00:14:41
Speaker 1: Where is Winston?
00:14:43
Speaker 3: Well, I saw Winston today on Instagram, and he was trying out an electric scooter out in South Auckland with a couple of security guards. Well, it didn't look bad to me, the clip I saw. And, in fact, here's what I thought about Winston.
00:14:56
Speaker 2: There he is.
00:14:57
Speaker 3: He looks a million and one bucks.
00:15:00
Speaker 4: He looks dapper.
00:15:01
Speaker 1: Not like Joe Biden on a bike.
00:15:03
Speaker 2: He's in a smart casual.
00:15:04
Speaker 3: And his smart casual is not bad dad jeans and a terrible fit.
00:15:07
Speaker 4: It's double-breasted.
00:15:09
Speaker 3: It's a black turtleneck and great shoes. And these young guys. they were just frothing on Winston. But what I loved at the end of the clip, so he puts one foot on and then obviously goes, at my age, this is a ridiculous idea. He didn't say it out loud. And then just flashed that million dollar smile and the whole place just lit up.
00:15:26
Speaker 1: Can I just say one thing though about these candidates way down on the list that start to sort of, explode as you get closer I know it's quite fun isn't it which is wonderful but what you realise.
00:15:36
Speaker 4: My money's on Helen White of Labour by the way she's going to have a fizzer at some.
00:15:40
Speaker 1: Stage what you realise is that you know no one knows their names they get voted in on the list or whatever they get into Parliament they stay there for three years no one still knows their name they make about as much waves as a fart in the bath.
00:15:52
Speaker 4: Oh lord more potty talk the kindred teachers have banned my four and a half year old by the way he gets no chocolate the next day in his lunchbox if he carries on like.
00:16:00
Speaker 2: That but I give him some But you sneak it to him.
00:16:03
Speaker 3: All right.
00:16:03
Speaker 4: We're going to take the news, actually, which is coming upon us very fast. And then after that, Labour's fiscal strategy. Does it add up? Do you believe it? And have we found the new star of Labour who might, in fact, save this party from themselves? News is next. Newstalk ZB. Newstalk ZB.
00:16:34
Speaker 2: Thrashing out the big issues.
00:16:36
Speaker 4: The Front Bench on Heather Duplessy Allen Drive.
00:16:39
Speaker 2: Newstalk ZB.
00:16:45
Speaker 4: By the way, I don't know if you've been following it, but that woman they tried to execute in Tennessee last week is still alive and in hospital. It's kind of ironic, isn't it? The state tries to kill her and now the state's trying to keep her alive. It's like they can't quite decide what they're doing. Anyway, Joel Zivett is an anesthesiologist who reckons he knows what went wrong, which is that she had small veins. He will be with us after five o'clock. It's now 24 away from five. And of course, you are back with the front bench. We have Barry Sobatrish-Herson and Joseph Ogani with us. Josie, do you believe Labour's actually going to deliver on this fiscal strategy that they released yesterday?
00:17:15
Speaker 1: I think they'll deliver on the fiscal... Policy, yep, the plan.
00:17:18
Speaker 2: Why?
00:17:19
Speaker 1: But not the pay equity because that's, I mean, you're looking at that and you're going, that's just not possible. So it's interesting what they're doing. I mean, National's calling it a big, you know, $ 18 billion hole or something or $ 12 billion hole. I think what's happening is that they're going to do a one-off payment, like they've said, so it's about $ 2. 4 billion, you know, quick pay rise for workers, care workers on the lowest income and good on them. That's the thing a Labour government should do. And then I think they're just going to tease it out. I don't think you will ever see that pay equity promise come to fruition because they can't afford it. I mean, they can't afford it without.
00:17:55
Speaker 2: People tend to forget what pay equity is about as well. People tend to say, oh, pay equity is equal pay. Well, it's not actually. It's comparing one industry with another industry, predominantly male, female, and then saying, well, you know, they should get the same as them. The care workers that they're going to look after... they're compared to mental health workers. Well, I think if you're a mental health worker, and there's no insult to people that look after elderly people, I think they're wonderful. But they're probably not trained to the extent that mental health workers are. But nevertheless, they're being compared to them. So they go, Labour goes, so they need to, their wages need to be brought up because mental health workers are predominantly male.
00:18:36
Speaker 1: I think the case is fair, Barry. I do think there is a case to make for, because most of those aged care workers or cleaners or whatever, they're on the minimum wage. And, you know, bloody hard to live on the minimum wage, right? So there's a case to be made for pay equity. I just think the reality is when you look at that fiscal plan, there's no way they can use that $ 10 billion of operating money, which is there for, you know, if your negotiations with other teachers, police, whatever … They go a bit higher than expected.
00:19:06
Speaker 4: You've answered my question, which is, do you think that Labour is going to deliver on its fiscal plan? And your answer was basically no, because they're going to have to shelve their pay equity plan to deliver.
00:19:15
Speaker 1: Yes, but I think they're planning. Who knows? I think they're planning to do that anyway, and they will deliver on the parts of their fiscal plan. And good on them for doing that.
00:19:21
Speaker 2: Do you know what they've done with their fiscal plan? They've become copycats for the national party.
00:19:25
Speaker 4: Yeah, they're trying to narrow the gap.
00:19:26
Speaker 2: If you look at the figures and go through the figures as I've done, then you would see national, but almost exactly like the deficit deficit. And what have you, or the surplus, I should say.
00:19:37
Speaker 1: Yeah, same year.
00:19:39
Speaker 4: Okay, so Trish, why I'm asking this question is because if you look at what Labour said they were going to do six weeks ago, when they initially delivered like a broad fiscal strategy, and then compare it to what they delivered yesterday, it's like a schizophrenic party. They're two completely different things. Six weeks ago, core crown spending would be 33% of GDP. Yesterday, it's 30%, 30.5%.
00:20:00
Speaker 2: Same as National.
00:20:01
Speaker 4: The difference between that is like billions and billions and billions of dollars.
00:20:05
Speaker 1: So you choose, Foo.
00:20:06
Speaker 4: Which one are they really going to do?
00:20:08
Speaker 3: Well, I think it comes back to what we were talking about before. Both these major parties are in a panic and they are making things up as they go along. Let's remember that both for National and Labour... their future plans are predicated on the Treasury's forecast, which, again, are relatively heroic assumptions.
00:20:28
Speaker 4: Over the next three years.
00:20:29
Speaker 2: And never that accurate.
00:20:31
Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly. Like always inaccurate. Exactly.
00:20:35
Speaker 3: And the other thing with Labour is, and I would say this to voters when you're looking at all the political parties' policies, Don't just focus on what they're telling you they're going to spend your money on. Focus on finding out what they are going to cut in order to be able to do this because there's so little crumbs in the cupboard here. that parties have to be much more upfront about that.
00:21:02
Speaker 1: Which is why I think they're not going to do the pay equity right, because there's no way a Labour government is going to cut funding to police, health, well, health's separate, isn't it? But schools, and we're going to have a big defence budget coming up. There's no way.
00:21:17
Speaker 3: But remember why they want to have pay equity out in the conversation, because we've probably all forgotten, but The pay equity, the secret national pay equity bomb that was landed, what, a year and a bit ago– In my view, that was one of the most damaging things for Nationals women's vote. So Labour wants us back on the table because it's in a.
00:21:38
Speaker 2: It was brought in by Bill English in 2017. Exactly, Barry. So it was a National Party policy that they've gone totally backwards.
00:21:46
Speaker 1: But I think Barbara Edmonds is treading a really careful balance here. One of the problems for her, because I think you're right, Heather, I think she is the standout star in Labour.
00:21:54
Speaker 4: Oh, I haven't even said it yet. Oh, sorry.
00:21:57
Speaker 1: I told you that in secret. Do your introduction then, Barry.
00:22:01
Speaker 4: Is Barbara Edmonds the star of the Labour Party?
00:22:03
Speaker 1: What Barry would like to say is yes.
00:22:06
Speaker 2: I'll tell you what, I was doing a book tour. I've written a book. Oh, have you written a book?
00:22:10
Speaker 4: I'm glad you mentioned it, Barry.
00:22:12
Speaker 1: Is it a children's book?
00:22:14
Speaker 2: And I was down in Queenstown and somebody asked me, they said, oh, who would be a natural leader after Chris Hipkins of the Labour Party? And I said, well, not Kieran McAnulty.
00:22:26
Speaker 4: No, angry eyes, angry eyes.
00:22:28
Speaker 2: I said, Barbara Edmonds. And somebody came up to me later, an old lady, and she said, you know, Barry, that's exactly my idea. And she does. She has credibility, whether she speaks the truth or not is another matter. But even in the fiscal plan, I thought she was very articulate.
00:22:46
Speaker 1: Well, I think she has a personality.
00:22:49
Speaker 3: And what I have heard, Barbara Edmonds has a real warmth about her. And in a room she is.
00:22:54
Speaker 2: Hey, kids.
00:22:55
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, don't even get me started on that.
00:22:57
Speaker 4: Well, that would make you not warm.
00:23:00
Speaker 3: But what I've heard is, so Labour, don't forget, one of their big issues is how do you drag the business community over? How do you build back credibility with them? And so the refrain that I've often heard is, look, Think Barbara is amazing, can't vote for Labour.
00:23:14
Speaker 4: Yeah.
00:23:15
Speaker 1: So she's got a problem in that she's trying to juggle stuff which is undermining what she's trying to do, which is actually pro-business, pro-growth. And you've got another bit of the Labour Party which is quite happy to de-industrialise New Zealand, ban oil and gas again, right? So she's trying to juggle all of this. But you're absolutely right. I think she's got– she keeps Labour– firmly footed on struggle strength.
00:23:39
Speaker 4: And she's the only.
00:23:39
Speaker 1: One who does.
00:23:40
Speaker 2: She looks good.
00:23:41
Speaker 4: She's very credible.
00:23:42
Speaker 2: Just listen to the articulate way she speaks.
00:23:45
Speaker 4: She's got a sharp black suit at the moment.
00:23:47
Speaker 3: I tell you what to watch too is upcoming, and this is near the election, but in the mood of the boardroom, the big business breakfast they have here in Auckland where you often have Nicola Willis and Barbara Edmonds Last year there was a real difference in warmth and tone between those two, and I think that's where Barbara Edmonds wins some over in the room.
00:24:05
Speaker 4: And I think she's got a bit better with politics in the meantime. Listen, let's take a break, and afterwards I want to spend some time talking about Labour, but I want to discuss the shambles that is National's campaign at the moment, 16 away from five. 14 away from 5am. Last night I was watching the news and I was a bit struck at how hard Nicola Willis went on Labour.
00:24:30
Speaker 3: Labour has openly chosen to lie.
00:24:33
Speaker 4: The context is that her comment was about Labour's fiscal plan which was released yesterday not accounting for all spending. That statement that they have left enough money aside for those things is just a lie. It doesn't add up. Trish, is that too much?
00:24:47
Speaker 3: Well, where does National need to get votes from if it's really going to make a difference? It has to win them across from those centre voters from Labour. You know, there's that lovely old saying, you catch more flies with sugar than vinegar. And I think if you are just constantly out there harping about Labour, you're not going to attract people over. I just think that that... Again, you know, you've got all this little bitsy stuff and fragmentation going on. You've got National in a complete panic because it's fighting two campaigns. It's fighting Labour and it's fighting Act in New Zealand First on its flank. And because of that, they have lost sight of what is the big defining idea for this election, not, you know.
00:25:37
Speaker 1: $ 2.
00:25:37
Speaker 3: 50 off here, $ 5 off here. What is the big idea that defines New Zealand and that New Zealanders can really get behind? And in my view... That is what New Zealand is after eight years of eight tough years. They want politicians who can lift their eyes up above the horizon and go, hey.
00:25:54
Speaker 2: Guys, here's where we're heading. And lift their eyes above other parties. I mean, there's an old idiom in politics that you don't concentrate on. Is that you, the old idiom in politics? Oh, yeah, have a laugh at Barry.
00:26:07
Speaker 4: He's written a book, Trish. There is.
00:26:10
Speaker 2: But there is, you know, you ignore your enemy, basically, and you talk about what you're doing. But just to get back to the lying thing, I think, you know, I know, you know, exception has been taken to Nicola Willis saying that they were lying. Have a listen to Chris Hipkins, for goodness sake. Bullshit was the word that he used in his campaign opening speech. And he's accused them of lying all the way through, particularly about the nine new taxes. And in a way, you know, the nine new taxes is boring because you've got one tax essentially from Labour and the rest are the other riffraff that could form part of the government.
00:26:47
Speaker 1: It's also, Barry, that it's not just... boring it's not the thing that voters are saying is the thing for them and that's the problem for them I think I mean this is the most strategically chaotic campaign I have ever seen from National and you know I've seen chaotic campaigns from other parties but this just seems I don't they're focusing so much on tax that if you ask Christopher Luxon what he had for breakfast he'd go well I can't I can't remember because I haven't read it but what I can say is nine new taxers And so it actually becomes this thing that you stop hearing, like you stop seeing the high-vis vests, the yellow high-vis vests.
00:27:21
Speaker 2: On the road. I think the sad thing for him, in a way, Luxon, and I know him pretty well because I've written a book.
00:27:27
Speaker 3: Do you?
00:27:27
Speaker 2: Do you know.
00:27:29
Speaker 1: Quite a few famous people, Barry?
00:27:31
Speaker 3: I know what makes.
00:27:32
Speaker 2: A good Prime Minister, obviously. But, you know, the thing about Christopher Luxon, you know, I actually quite like the man. And I think if he gets out, as he has been doing, out and among the public, And talking to them, people genuinely warm to him. They like him. They don't see him as this removed executive.
00:27:49
Speaker 1: Although, standing there in their blue jackets, smiling, waving policies around.
00:27:54
Speaker 2: Well, it's no worse than standing there in a red jacket.
00:27:56
Speaker 1: Well, no, but there's a lot of blue jackets somewhere, and they all look like a boy band that got back together from the 80s.
00:28:01
Speaker 3: Don't you just feel like you just want to stuff them back into Wellington? You just want to put them all back in the box? Because it seems to me there's two things.
00:28:10
Speaker 4: Number one.
00:28:11
Speaker 3: In the House, and Barry will know this because he knows standing orders inside out, but under the rules in Parliament, you can't call someone a liar and you can't call them a hypocrite. But unfortunately, when we're unleashed out into the wild, I don't think I've ever seen this word liar be used so much in an election campaign. And it's unedifying and I don't think voters.
00:28:32
Speaker 4: Like it at all.
00:28:33
Speaker 1: Also, you don't win elections without being hopeful and you don't actually win people over. If you think of some of the great... You've met Nelson Mandela. I know that, Barry. You think of people like Nelson Mandela, Martin Luther King, you think of them smiling, right? You think of these great political leaders as smiling and looking up to the skies. And there's something so negative about National's campaign. And you compare it to Burnham as well.
00:28:54
Speaker 2: But I would say the total campaign, I don't think it's only National. I think Labour as well.
00:28:59
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's fair. They're worse.
00:29:02
Speaker 1: Everybody's campaigning like an opposition party.
00:29:04
Speaker 2: The only friendly campaign is the Opportunity Party that... have now no real bottom line.
00:29:09
Speaker 1: So bland, you'd stand in front of a page.
00:29:11
Speaker 4: I've got to take a break. I've got to take a break. Just quickly before I take a break, just a reminder that one of the men in blue, Chris Bishop, is going to be there after five o'clock to sell us the Mill Road upgrade and why he's actually going to do it this time. And also the 800 Mill going to Belfast to Pegasus, that motorway down south, nine away from five. All right, you're back with the front bench. It's six minutes away from five. Before we go, guys, I was just saying to you off the news that we've got, just off the air, that we have a poll from One News tonight and I think we have polls now. every Monday from here on in. So what is the one thing that each of you are looking at in this poll tonight, Josie?
00:29:43
Speaker 1: I'll look at where opportunity is. I think, and I think I'm right, that there will be no change for Labour and National because nothing has happened that would change people's minds. I think they'll still be hovering around that 28, 29, 30 mark.
00:29:55
Speaker 2: You stole the words right out of my mouth. Well, Barry, tell us about your book.
00:29:58
Speaker 4: That's exactly what I'm thinking. You've got nothing else.
00:30:01
Speaker 3: What about your gong, Barry?
00:30:02
Speaker 4: What about that gong that you got?
00:30:03
Speaker 2: Oh, for goodness sake.
00:30:05
Speaker 1: What was Nelson Mandela like?
00:30:08
Speaker 3: What about Abraham Lincoln on that campaign?
00:30:10
Speaker 2: Do you want to hear about Heather's favourite topic, Rob Muldoon? Oh, no. You are the boyfriend.
00:30:16
Speaker 4: What are you looking for in the poll? Silence?
00:30:22
Speaker 2: Silence is golden. I don't think it will be a golden poll for either of the major parties. And that does bring into question, I know David Seymour has done it today, the poll of polls. When you've got, you know, big parties collapsing and smaller parties like the ACT Party collapsing the way it has done, of course the poll of polls is going to.
00:30:43
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll talk about the poll of polls later because it does take a bit of explanation. But opportunity across the 5% for you?
00:30:48
Speaker 2: They'll be very close to it. Okay, for sure.
00:30:52
Speaker 3: Yeah, opportunity is really the one to watch. I think they're going to start probably blinking in and out of the five as this starts to firm up. I think maybe where they have missed is there is only 61% of younger voters who had registered as at 23 September. So potentially that's an issue. What I think we watch for is, is there any shift between the left and the right block overall? And within that, in the minor parties, who is hitting their straps from voters' perspective in these final weeks? So my prediction is potentially ACT has timed their run right. New Zealand First might be coming back a bit. I think the Greens vote will probably... come back a bit. So those would be my things to watch. But the National Party and the Labour Party still hovering below 30? I just cannot see anything, as Josie said, from them that has actually captured people's attention.
00:31:42
Speaker 1: All tail, no dog.
00:31:44
Speaker 2: And I cannot believe that the Greens are polling the way some polls have said, up to 16%.
00:31:50
Speaker 1: No.
00:31:51
Speaker 2: I don't believe that, I'm afraid.
00:31:52
Speaker 1: That's an anti-Labour vote.
00:31:54
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, it would be that, yeah.
00:31:56
Speaker 4: Yeah, it would be, yeah, absolutely.
00:31:57
Speaker 3: And also a very different thing when you've got someone on the phone to actually when you go into that voting booth. So that's why I say with opportunity that that could really change.
00:32:06
Speaker 4: Yeah, totally. Now, listen, guys, thank you very much. It's lovely to have you in the studio, and I'm already looking forward to next Monday, 4 o'clock, and we can do it all again. We have Barry Soper, Senior Political Correspondent, Trish Sherson. of Shearson Willis and Joseph Ogani, the Child Fund Chief Executive. We're talking to Chris Bishop after the news, going to chat to him about Mill Road and how we can be sure that he's actually going to do it again, especially six weeks after pulling out of the contract negotiations with the homeowners along that bit. But also, you'll have seen what's going on with cricket over the weekend. Sir Richard Hadley writing the letter, Leslie Murdoch getting involved in that as well. So what on earth is going on? Why now? What are they upset about? We'll get you across that as well in the next half hour or so. Coming up, five o'clock, Newstalk ZB. I'm going to stay in construction. Building and.
00:33:02
Speaker 1: Building and building until I can't function at all. Silence is golden. It's golden. It's golden.
00:33:10
Speaker 3: Silence is golden.
00:33:11
Speaker 4: It's golden.
00:33:11
Speaker 1: It's golden.
