ABOUT THIS EPISODE
Each night I ask one question in my daily review: what surprised me? Norbert Wiener's anti-aircraft predictor shows how logging each surprise makes you a better predictor.
Featuring: Norbert Wiener, Julian Bigelow, Flo Conway, Jim Siegelman
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Chapters:
(00:00) The question in my daily review
(00:09) Norbert Wiener's anti-aircraft predictor
(00:43) A surprise is the gap
(00:55) One question a night
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TRANSCRIPT 🔗
One of them is What surprised me?
I ask it to correct my model of the world.
In 1940 the mathematician Norbert Wiener started work on aiming anti-aircraft guns.
Gunners had to aim where a plane would be moments later. So he and the engineer Julian Bigelow built a predictor that guessed that spot.
They measured the gap between where they predicted the plane would be and where it went. Then they fed that gap back into the next guess.
Each mis…
