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Overall balances remain steady as consumer credit remains stable.
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But hold the phones, month over month delinquencies rise, suggesting near-term payment pressure.
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I'm Jeff Richardson, host of Credit Gage Live.
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And as always, I'm joined by my colleague and lead analyst Attif Mursa.
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We are joining you live from the exhibit hall at ABS East for a very special edition of Credit Gage Live, the largest capital markets conference in the United States that covers asset backed securities.
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Atif, great to have you here in Miami.
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Thank you for having me.
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All right, so Atif, what can you tell us about consumer balances and how are consumers faring?
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Thank you, Jeff.
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So the encouraging news this month is that the consumers are uh dealing with their debt levels really well.
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Uh when we look at the balance and loan ratios, they decline to a 12-month low to 40, 49.5 uh percent.
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So the big takeaway is that consumer balances are steady, but the leverage is also coming down.
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So delinquencies were seeing some uptick there.
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Is that something we should be concerned about?
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Yes, in September we saw an early state delinquencies slightly rise compared to last year.
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Uh however, this is not a sign uh where we see a broad-based deterioration.
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Now, uh it suggests that some consumers may be feeling the pressure.
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We continue to watch that uh signal uh in in credit gauge.
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So one of the things um a lot of lenders and um investors, we're here at ABSE, so so we want to think about um the uh asset back security market in particular.
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Investors are really concerned about shifting consumer credit profiles, how many consumers are shifting from one credit tier to the next, prime to superprime.
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What are the trends you're seeing there?
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Overall, this population distribution, this is a metric that we specifically watch in Mattiscore credit gauge.
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And what we saw month over month, there isn't much change.
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Uh the population distribution is pretty steady among the credit tiers.
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Uh, however, when we look at a longer-term view, a two-year view, what we saw was that a uh from Matuscore Prime segment, we saw a shift moving downwards into near prime and uh subprime segments.
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Okay.
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Now, this is something we specifically uh want to watch closely because this would have impact for lenders, uh especially or for consumers, also from a uh borrowing cost perspective, uh how lenders assess risk.
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Uh so so again, uh not a uh not a clear sign of shift uh uh in population distribution.
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However, this is something we again we continue to watch.
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Absolutely, we should watch that.
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Well, uh thank you, Aktif.
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Really appreciate your insights this month, as always.
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Really special guest joining us uh after this.
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Straight off the main stage at ABS East will be uh our president and CEO, Silvio Tavares.
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He'll be delivering the keynote address here at ABS East, and right after that, he'll join us on Credit Gauge Live.
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Stick around.
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Interviewed by a senior Financial Times editor, um Jam Pack House, full of issuers, investors, ratings agencies.
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Um, what was the number one key takeaway you wanted to leave them with?
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Well, the biggest takeaway is simply this for the first time, and it's a historic time, you have a choice.
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You can choose to use vantage score, and you didn't have that choice in the past.
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So that's the biggest takeaway.
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Investors, lenders, now you have a choice to use vanish core you didn't before.
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And the question that I left the audience with is will you be left behind if you don't use vantage score?
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For many of the largest lenders, many of the largest investors, uh, including companies like Rocket Mortgage, Chase, Toyota Motor Credit, the largest investors like PIMCO, KKR, Wellington, they've made that choice and they've chosen Vantage Score.
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That's right.
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Because we're in an environment where sometimes risk is harder to predict right now.
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And so you were asked about this on stage.
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How would you characterize the health of the American consumer today?
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If you look at our September credit gauge, what you see is that the average vantage score is 701.
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A low, in fact, the lowest vantage score is 300, the highest vantage score is 850.
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So ending September with a 701 is a great result.
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Consumers are credit healthy.
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When you look underneath that number, you see even more remarkable things.
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So overall, the delinquency rate for early stage delinquency is stable.
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So you're not seeing a lot of consumers take out a credit card or an auto loan and then immediately go delinquent.
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That's a healthy sign.
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But the even more positive sign is credit utilization.
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Sure.
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Um, even though the total amount of credit has increased on a year-over-year basis, if you actually look at the credit utilization rate, so that's the percentage of credit that's being used by the consumer, that's actually lower on a year-over-year rate.
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So consumers are remarkably disciplined.
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And by the way, when you are typically in a stress period for a consumer, you see the opposite.
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You see consumers maxing out their credit card line, getting that utilization rate well above 50%.
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We are not seeing that now.
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So a very healthy and positive read on the last of the underscore credit gauge for the consumer.
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Absolutely.
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And headed into the important holiday shopping period, uh, that's that's a really important sign.
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Uh, but then let's let's dig a little deeper.
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Um, you know, of course, credit gauge looks at all credit products, auto, card, personal loans, mortgages.
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So, where do you see the greatest risks or opportunities kind of looking into this last quarter?
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Well, I honestly I see the the risk and opportunities more from a macro perspective, right?
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So if you're a lender and you're using Vantage Score, because we use 400% more data, because we use alternative data like rental payments, you're actually gonna see the trend on the consumer, whether they're doing better or worse.
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You're gonna see that trend earlier.
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So, on a macro basis, where I see the risk is lenders, investors that are actually using our competitors' legacy obsolete credit score, they're not gonna see the trend.
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They're gonna miss it.
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And uh the problem with that is you're gonna be making loans if you're a lender to the wrong consumers at the wrong time.
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And if you're an investor, you're gonna miss time the market and you're gonna be investing in areas where you don't have full transparency.
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So the solution to both of those risks, uh, Jeff, quite frankly, is use vantage score and use tools like vanish score credit gauge and vantage score risk ratio, which are gonna give you the most precise read on the consumer risk, and you're gonna get it in high frequency real time.
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Well, so uh sounds like both the risk and the opportunity lies in the analytics and the in and the model.
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Um, all right.
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So so you were also asked on stage about Vantage Gore's growth.
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Uh, and I think you used the the the term rocket ship.
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So can you characterize the the growth that Vantage Core has seen?
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Um and how do you think credit scores um have evolved to help uh issuers make better decisions and investors make better decisions?
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Well, yeah, and and I think I have to kind of give the props to rocket mortgage, that's where that term gang world is subliminal messaging in some ways.
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Right.
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Well, and and the reason I highlight that is uh Vantage Core has made a huge entree into the mortgage market.
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Uh for those who don't know, the largest single freted product in the United States is mortgages, as you would expect.
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It's the biggest loan that any bank or financial institution makes to a consumer.
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It's really important for the economy.
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As you know, consumer spending accounts for 70% of our U.S.
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economy, and a huge portion of that is tied to home purchases.
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So the fact that the number one lender in the United States, Rocket Mortgage, not only uses Vantage Score, but we are their preferred credit score, is a big deal.
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And the whole rest of the market is following that lead in mortgages, but also in other credit products like credit cards, like auto loans, like personal loans.
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Uh, so I just see a continued period of substantial growth for Vantage Score.
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And ultimately, that's a really big win.
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It's a big win, not just for our company, it's not just a big win for our company, it's also a big win for the lenders.
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But ultimately, the most important big win is for the American consumer who are getting access to credit when they are actually truly creditworthy.
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Very, very exciting time.
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It is, and and very rewarding from a uh standpoint of being able to do well by by doing good.
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Um, all right, uh last question to you, Silvio.
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Uh, and thank you for joining us.
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Um, so we're looking at 2027.
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Um, we're always looking to innovate.
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What areas of data and analytics excite you about the next chapter for vantage scoring or models?
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Well, uh the reality is there's a it's a golden age of innovation for credit scoring.
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Um, you you may have seen this, Jeff, but some of the viewers may not have.
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Do you want to know who was the first credit score to be used on a Frontier AI LLM?
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Vantage scores on Chat GPT.
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That just happened a couple of weeks ago.
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Um, and we are investing and doubling down on the next generation of scores and technology that will enable lenders to lend more smartly, but also enable consumers to live their best financial lives.
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Just Friday, we put out a press release announcing our vantage score mortgage simulator.
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Yeah, and that's gonna enable a consumer who's close to qualifying for a mortgage, they're gonna actually be able to use different scenarios and get the best recommendations for how they can improve their credit score uh in order to qualify for a mortgage.
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So there's a lot more coming there in terms of using AI, using enhanced data analytics to enable lenders to get the best out of their credit score, but also importantly enabling consumers to get their best with vantage score.
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Absolutely.
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Silvio, thank you for joining Credit Gauge Live here in Miami at ABS East.
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Another incredible day and milestone for Vantage Score.
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Thank you for your leadership in being here.
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Thank you, Jeff.
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And you do a great job on this show.
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I tune in every single month.
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Thanks for having me on.
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Thank you.
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And that'll be it from the floor of ABS East.
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For more information on Credit Gauge, you can download the analysis at vanishescore.com.
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We will see you next month.
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Thank you.