Words Matter: The Speech that Shifted the Polls

As fresh polling fuels political debate, Guyon and Corin look back on our most explosive poll results - including the one that truly changed the game. What makes voters change their minds?

Season 2 Episode 3

Watch the video version of the episode here.

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Thanks to Ngā Taonga Sound & Vision.

In this episode of Context, a potted history of Political Polling. With the National Party making headlines with its latest numbers, Corin and Guyon examine one of the most explosive poll results in NZ history: Subscribe: @RNZvideoAt the centre of the story is the 2004 Orewa speech by Don Brash: one of the most controversial speeches in New Zealand political history. It drew fierce criticism but at the same time it triggered a huge surge in voter support for National producing one of the biggest polling swings ever seen.So what explains that shift? Why did voters respond so strongly and what does it reveal about the gap between political commentary and public opinion? We also explore: How political polls work in New Zealand Famous polling moments, from Jim Bolger’s “bugger the pollsters” to modern campaigns The role of media coverage, debates, and messaging in shaping voter behaviour Whether a sudden swing like Orewa could still happen in today’s political climate As new polls continue to shape the narrative around Christopher Luxon and the National Party, this episode asks a bigger question: should we pay attention to Polls?

Have a topic you'd like Corin or Guyon to explore? Send your ideas to context@rnz.co.nz

Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details