The 15-Litre Engine Opens Heavy-Duty Trucking to RNG—Economics Decide What Scales

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I'd say at a very high level you want to make this argument to switching to, to natural gas or renewable natural gas on economic terms.
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It has to work for the companies first before it can be on the environmental terms.
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For fleet leaders, the test sits beyond fuel price, asset utilisation, fuel access, and lifecycle accounting will decide what can scale.
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Good morning, good afternoon, or good evening, wherever you are in the world.
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This is Climate Confident Stories and Strategies that Cut Emissions episode 296, and I'm your host, Tom Raftery.
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My guest today is Scott Brinner.
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Scott is an Executive Vice president of RNG Solutions at NoPetro Energy.
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A new 15 litre engine gives RNG a route into heavy duty trucking with high mileage return to base fleets emerging as the strongest early fit.
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Let's get into it.
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Scott welcome to the podcast Would you like to introduce yourself?
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Sure, sure.
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Thanks for having me on, Tom.
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I'm excited to be a part of it.
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My name's Scott Brinner.
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I'm the Executive Vice President of our RNG Solutions Division at NoPetro Energy.
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A company headquartered out of Miami, Florida that's focused on really all aspects of the RNG renewable natural gas industry from production through the fueling stations and even, starting to, engage in truck financing and purchasing and maintenance and service too.
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And before we go any further I just wanna clear up a distinction people sometimes confuse cause you talked about trucks and trucks can run on compressed natural gas which is sometimes called CNG which is basically methane stored under pressure as a transport fuel.
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And you talked about RNG.
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RNG is renewable natural gas.
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And that refers to where the methane comes from.
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So instead of drilling new fossil gas, RNG captures methane from places like landfills, dairy farms, wastewater plants et cetera et cetera before it escapes into the atmosphere.
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And so the interesting part is that both fossil natural gas methane, and RNG can use the same pipelines, the same fueling stations, the same engines, the same truck infrastructure.
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So in practise a fleet might be running on compressed natural gas CNG but the climate impact depends heavily on whether the methane came from fossil extraction or captured waste emissions.
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Is that a fair summary Scott of the situation?
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I don't think I could say it any better.
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I think you did a very good job.
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I think yes.
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The, the CNG, RNG term, they're, they're in ways interchangeable.
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And how did you personally end up focused on fuel infrastructure and RNG?
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Try to make this a short story, but I was an investment banker that covered transportation and waste industries.
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Doing so, I, I had some exposure to, you know, the, the idea of using alternative fuels, alternative technologies in the future.
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And back when the two co-founders of NoPetro Energy were starting the company, they came over and met with me and, told me what they were excited about doing and wondered how I might have been able to help them as they built this company up.
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We stayed in touch.
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We looked at working together for the next 15 years or so, and then the CEO and called me and, essentially by the end of a few months of it, talking about where the company was going and this big opportunity coming, around the new engines for 15 litre trucks, asked me if I'd join him and, and help build the company for the next 10, 20 years so.
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And tell me and the listeners what are these new engines you're talking about?
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Yeah.
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About the same time that the CEO called me to start talking about whether I might want to join him and help him, he knew and was seeing that Cummins was getting pretty close to announcing the arrival or the, the issuance, the available for sale of their brand new 15 litre X 15 in natural gas powered engine.
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And that is really, you know, all over the internet, you'll find it being called the game changer.
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Just a huge move, in the United States, you know, in the United, the major trucks that, you know, all these trucks you see on the interstate, most of'em, 90% or more, or 15 litre engines.
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And that has to do with the power and the torque, the capability, the, you know, every, what can the truck do and what is the truck expected to do on the highways in the United States.
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And there really has not been an engine of any other alternative fuel, enter any alternative technology available for sale proven to do the job until this engine came out.
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So for the first time, we have a natural gas powered engine in a truck that can do every job the diesel can do.
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And this engine doesn't care whether it's using fossil natural gas or renewable natural gas They're exactly the same thing right?
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Yeah, at the engine level, it is natural gas powered.
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And so the, the truck can take either.
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Now we have it an interesting dynamic in the United States where finally we have enough renewable natural gas produced in the country to fill all demand for CNG transportation.
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So that did not exist several years ago.
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They created a renewable fuel standard, put in the right incentives there to make the economics work.
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We're building renewable natural gas production plants at landfills, wastewater treatment, plants, dairy farms, that, that those guys who built those plants and put that capital to work had a reason to do that, could generate the revenues for a respectable return.
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So a lot of those plants have gone up in the last five years.
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There's a lot more coming.
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And now we have in the last eight months probably crossed that, that hurdle where there's more produced than there is dispensed into vehicles or demand from vehicles.
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So the, the key now going forward is continue to increase both.
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For a fleet owner, how does CNG compare with diesel on a diesel gallon equivalent basis?
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The quickest rule of thumb that I use, countrywide would just say would, would be to, I feel confident almost anywhere I go that I can say that, that the reduction in fuel cost per gallon will be at least a dollar 50 to $2 versus diesel.
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I mean, if, if you're in California or Oregon and you're looking at six to $8 diesel, if you in the US with natural gas trucks, you'd still be buying your natural gas, you could get it a dollar 50 to $2 if you had a contracted comittment of some sort with a CNG provider.
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And, is the CNG, RNG is that as volatile in terms of its fuel price as the petrol and diesel that we see today as a result of the war for example?
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No, that's, that's definitely, I mean, it's, it's almost negligible the amount of volatility in the natural gas market compared to the diesel market.
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But, you know, I think a lot of that has to do with, we have proven that we have a fossil fuel based natural gas, you know, supply that is domestic, that is readily available almost all year round Now, do you see spikes in natural gas once in a while, in January or February when we get hit with a real cold spell out of nowhere?
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Yeah, that happens.
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It, it really never continues to, know, stay that way for too long.
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It goes back.
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And for fleets are there particular profiles that make more economic sense for RNG and some that don't?
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I, I think there are, I think a lot of different organisations and people are doing the studies today to try to get the details worked out.
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I'd say at a very high level you want to make this argument to switching to, to natural gas or renewable natural gas on economic terms.
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It has to work for the companies first before it can be on the environmental terms.
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On the economic basis what you have at the most basic level is you have a truck that today you're going to have to pay about probably 70 to $90,000 more for the truck.
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And so you want to return on that investment.
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And so the more miles per year that you drive a truck, the faster you have a return on.
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So that,
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Sure
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the interesting qua thing there though is a lot of the trucks that are staying out on the road going long distance overnight, might think they drive the most miles so they get a return faster, but they get worried about the fact that is it gonna be harder to find a fuel station to fuel up?
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Am I really gonna get the prices I want?
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But then you get back to what's the best way to really roll this industry out and roll this out is to try to find maybe the trucks that we call return to base.
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At the end of the day, they go back to the base.
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You could have a fueling station behind the fence that's private.
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You could have a provider like us build geo fuel station within a block of two blocks, half a mile of your terminal.
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And so every night you get fueled up, the drivers go home, they come back the next day.
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You can find different types of trucking operations that the truck does a different number of miles per year.
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Some truck operations may be in some port areas, dray trucks may be only doing 30 to 50,000 miles a year.
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There's other in town return to base operations that still get 80 to a hundred thousand miles a year.
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If you get 80, if you get 80 to a hundred thousand miles a year, I think I believe pretty confidently that your payback period can be three years or less.
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And how do maintenance costs on an RNG truck compare with diesel?
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Yeah, there are differences.
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Some are very good.
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The biggest thing you don't have with an RNG engine, an RNG truck or CNG truck is all of the after treatment.
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All of the DEF fluid.
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There's DEF systems, there's technologies, you know, there's, there's additional equipment in the engine, in the truck, and it has to run and, and be taken care of.
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So you get rid of parts and things that can break things.
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You have to take care of additional fuel, you know fluids that you have to add to the truck.
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So that would, you know, naturally you start thinking, okay, I'm gonna save money on maintenance.
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Now.
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All those savings, you don't keep all of those savings because this engine is little bit different and it has, the major thing it has that the other doesn't have is it has spark plugs.
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What does that lead to?
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That leads to really, the preventive maintenance schedule is a little different and you'll stop the truck and bring it in a little more often than the diesel truck to have the spark plugs changed.
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So I, I usually just go with the maintenance over overall, over the lifetime is about the same.
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The savings are on the fuel.
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Fair enough And if the economics on the fuel can work so well why have heavy duty fleets been so slow to switch over?
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Oh, I think there's, there's a number of things.
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If I was gonna list them out, number one, as I said, this difference in price today is probably 70 to 90,000.
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Last year, I might have said 80 to a hundred thousand.
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I think the, the pricing is getting a little better.
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It's all about payback and economics.
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So I think that's a lot of it.
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But there's also, hey, this is brand new.
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This is brand new technology.
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We've never had a 15 litre natural gas engine.
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And if you get to people who've been in the trucking industry for decades not every engine change in engine that's come out in the market.
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And it's not, whether it's Cummins or a manufacturer, it's just the fact is, is not every time has it gone perfectly.
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So I think with this being early stage, some companies are gonna say, I don't want to be the first guy to test this out.
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So that's, I think, another part of it.
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And then the third is everybody's so used to seeing a truck stop at every exit on the interstate and never thinking about where am I gonna fuel up?
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You do have to do some planning, you have to think about it.
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There's not the same level of infrastructure on every interstate yet.
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We like to think that actually that could end up being an advantage'cause we can set these things up more efficiently for the operation.
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But those, you know, those are definitely big concerns.
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Okay and what's harder about deployment than people expect
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What has been harder about the deployment?
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I, I think, I don't know if I'd say harder than they expected, as much as what is, what are they watching out for?
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The mechanics need to be trained.
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It's not a long, it's not a long process, but they do need to be trained on what is different.
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The driver needs to be trained a bit.
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It is not drastically different, but it works better to train them on how does this truck drive, what's the best way to drive it?
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The maintenance shops, the places where they work on these trucks in order to work on these trucks under a roof, or enclosed those shops need some changes in their infrastructure, some new safety systems, some new venting that can cost money.
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That has not been, you know, exactly take, you know, that that doesn't exist ever in every, at every exit in every city yet.
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So the infrastructure to support, just keeping the trucks on the road.
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If the trucking company is worried that they get halfway between, say, Miami, Florida and Atlanta, Georgia, the truck breaks, is there gonna be somewhere where they can work on this?
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They can't be down.
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It's a hard, you know, trucking is hard.
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They gotta be very efficient.
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They've gotta do a very good operation every day.
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And if you get a truck down and you can't fix it, they can be costly, just, you know, directly to the truck.
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And very costly on the operational efficiency in your service to your customers.
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Okay where do you see RNG fitting in relative to battery electric trucking?
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Yeah, I think the future is one where there will be kind of fit for purpose.
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You're gonna see trucking companies and private fleets look very closely at all technologies and figure out which one is best for their business.
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And I think you'll see trucking companies that before you know it, have diesel trucks, CNG trucks, electric trucks, and maybe some days some hydrogen trucks.
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And I think they're gonna find an op, you know, different routes and operations where each one are the best choice.
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All right and do you think RNG is competing with electrification or just buying time for sectors where batteries still struggle
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Yeah, I think that's a, that's a big discussion these days.
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I, I think there's a, i I, I can't say that I'm gonna have the answer.
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I don't know if anybody knows for sure and is gonna be right or wrong or knows they're right or wrong.
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But I, I do believe there's so many great things about the RNG ecosystem and the price points and the economics and where the prices can go in the future that I think we will, we'll always have a, a great part of the market in the future.
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There are others that think that that batteries are gonna get, even better and better, and that the costs are gonna get down and the range is gonna go up, and the rules around weight of the shipment are all gonna work out that electric can take everything.
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But I, I have my personal views, I have a hard time seeing that happening in 10 to 20 years.
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Critics would argue that RNG risks prolonging combustion dependency.
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Do you think that's a fair criticism?
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I, I, I think I, I guess the way you put it, my reaction is combustion dependency is not in itself a bad thing.
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I guess that's kind of my reaction.
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If you, if the combustion is RNG and you do the detailed study of what is RNG, what does it come from and what does it do for the environment and the atmosphere you might come back around to say, it's not the combustion that you don't like.
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It's the fossil fuels you don't like.
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And it's, yes, there's combustion and emissions at some level out of that truck, but have not developed a better way of incentivizing the, the improvements, the corrections, the adjustments that these RNG production plants, is growing, landfills are going to continue to exist.
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More trash is going into landfills.
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What are we gonna do with that gas that's, that's really bad for the atmosphere.
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The dairy farms, the swine farms, the wastewater treat, all of these very, very, you know, necessary pieces of society exist.
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And now we've found this great way of cleaning that up, getting, you know, doing something very positive and the best place to put it is into these combustion engines.
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So I, I think that's a much longer discussion, but it's, you know, it's an interesting one to have.
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The climate case still depends on the feedstock, methane leakage, what would otherwise happen to the waste gas and the accounting method.
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Those details determine the lifecycle benefit while, combustion leaves local air pollution in play.
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Sure, and walk me through the landfill to fleet pathway in practical terms.
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Well, it's not as direct as I think people may want to think at first.
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That is something we run into.
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You go to any landfill, you do a lot of st you, you study what's in the landfill, how long has it been coming, how much is there, what's, what are the gases coming out of that landfill right now?
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How long are the gas is gonna last?
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You do the economic study, you design an engineer and construct a plant that is the right size for that landfill.
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You build the plant it's almost like, I mean, call it a refinery.
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You, you're taking a gas, sucking in the gases and they've got a lot of impurities in them.
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You pull out a lot of the bad stuff.
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You end up with very clean methane, natural gas, and in almost all cases, you directly inject that into the interstate or local pipeline systems.
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And there it's mixing with the fossil fuel gas.
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And what happens next?
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It's a little bit related to the renewable fuel standard and kind of, you know, it's a paper trail.
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So technically to, to create the incentives and keep the industry growing and incentivize these good people to build these production plants in the middle of nowhere, out where there's not a lot of development.
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Wherever there's a big landfill based on the regulations I get, I, you know, whoever has the plant to owns that molecule.
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You kind of own a molecule when it goes in and you, you get to control that renewable molecule until it goes out.
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So I can produce in Florida a molecule, put it into the pipeline system in Florida.
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And I can say that actually the molecule went out in my fuel station in Oregon.
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You don't have to put a fuel station next to the landfill.
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I know that can be a little bit hard to get through, but, but that's how it works in that it creates the right incentives to, to keep this going.
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So the physical gas mixes in the pipeline.
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What travels from a Florida producer to an Oregon fuel sale is the renewable attribute through a book and claim system rather than a particular molecule.
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Alright and what do you think heavy transportation fuel looks like in 10 years from now?
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What percentage do you think is electric?
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What percentage will remain combustion based?
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And does RNG meaningfully scale or would it stay niche in that kind of time period?
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You're gonna get my opinion again.
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I'm not gonna be correct.
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And I, and I'm a very positive about our sector.
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I, I, I believe in productivity and that everybody's creating new things that work very well.
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I believe in the electric.
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I, I think diesel, I think we can have diesel stay kind of flat, maybe even decrease, at least in this country.
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I think electric is gonna find a lot of great places where it works very well.
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But I also think that, I think that RNG is going to take, you know, in the next 10 years, somewhere at least 10 to 20% of annual truck purchases.
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And, and I think there's upside to that.
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So I think there's so many ways to make RNG and CNG very economical and very operationally efficient over the next 10 years that I think we can get to 10 to 20% on the CNG, RNG that I think it can work really long haul over the road and electric is going.
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I think they're gonna continue to go with more of the close end stuff.
00:23:05.690 --> 00:23:09.190
You need a high utilisation you know, the right weights.
00:23:09.190 --> 00:23:11.830
So I think it's gonna be really interesting to see where we go.
00:23:11.950 --> 00:23:14.769
But every, everybody's gonna gain some good market share.
00:23:15.578 --> 00:23:22.659
A practical question, if a fleet operator listening wants to seriously evaluate RNG where should they start?
00:23:23.710 --> 00:23:24.720
It is hard.
00:23:24.720 --> 00:23:26.100
You want to do it right.
00:23:26.400 --> 00:23:31.470
You want to make sure you do this very detailed analysis.
00:23:31.470 --> 00:23:39.210
You might want to be sure that you get to really try the truck, not just necessarily there are demo trucks out there that different companies have.
00:23:39.210 --> 00:23:40.710
We're gonna get one soon.
00:23:41.100 --> 00:23:46.200
Those programmes are usually a try the truck for a week, two weeks, maybe three weeks.
00:23:46.470 --> 00:23:59.799
We are actually at NoPetro working on a solution that we, we call it more of a pilot programme that is a little deeper, longer term trial, maybe 60, 90 days to really get a sense for it.
00:24:00.450 --> 00:24:11.035
Scott we're coming towards the end of the podcast now Is there any question I didn't ask that you wish I did or any aspect of this we haven't touched on that you think it's important for people to be aware of
00:24:12.145 --> 00:24:14.306
I think, I think this, I think you did a great job.
00:24:14.306 --> 00:24:20.395
I think, you know, we got through what it is, the differences, you know, it's, it, it, it's got a place, it'll fit.
00:24:20.395 --> 00:24:21.865
What are the challenges?
00:24:22.226 --> 00:24:28.346
And, you know, it's of us in the industry are working together.
00:24:28.405 --> 00:24:38.166
I, you know, the thing I tell people that are interested just be open, be open-minded and, and, and kind of curious.
00:24:38.556 --> 00:24:41.375
Okay and if people want to get in touch with you what's the best way to do so
00:24:41.480 --> 00:24:43.090
It's easy to find me through NoPetro.com.
00:24:44.650 --> 00:24:49.509
But sbrinner@nopetro.com is also pretty easy.
00:24:49.509 --> 00:24:50.950
That's my email address.
00:24:50.950 --> 00:24:52.330
Happy to get that out there.
00:24:52.920 --> 00:24:56.640
Perfect Great Scott that's been fascinating Thanks a million for coming on the podcast today
00:24:56.696 --> 00:24:57.446
Thank you, Tom.
00:24:57.446 --> 00:24:58.196
That was fun.
00:24:58.226 --> 00:24:58.556
Thank you.