WEBVTT
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Hello and welcome to Chat BDC or the top stories of Black Dirt Daily today, which is Thursday, October 29th, one day after the Milwaukee Brewers won the World Series.
00:00:21.920 --> 00:00:29.120
They were going to talk about dairy's role in SNAP, pack earned feedlot margins, and government safety nets in commodity markets.
00:00:29.280 --> 00:00:30.960
So let's get to it.
00:00:31.679 --> 00:00:37.759
Start out looking at data related to this supplemental nutrition assistance program as of July 2026.
00:00:37.840 --> 00:00:43.759
All changes in SNAP work requirements were in effect, and any extension waivers had lapsed.
00:00:43.840 --> 00:00:58.240
SNAP participants declined 13.3%, roughly 5.5 million Americans, in July 2026 compared to July 2025, prior to the implementation of the Budget Reconciliation Act.
00:00:58.399 --> 00:01:19.599
Although USDA may significantly revise the 2026 participation data, the trend of more than 10% fewer SNAP participants compared to 2025 has persisted since April 2026, suggesting that changes established under the Budget Reconciliation Bill have contributed to a substantial decline in participation.
00:01:20.239 --> 00:01:32.000
Fewer participants translates to fewer SNAP dollars available for grocery purchases, including dairy products potentially weighing on retail dairy purchasing and consumption.
00:01:32.400 --> 00:01:44.239
Although there's fewer participants in the SNAP program today than a year ago and thus fewer overall dollars being spent, Americans are also allocating a larger share of their grocery budgets to dairy products.
00:01:45.760 --> 00:02:00.560
In the 2011 study, USDA found that roughly 9% of the participants allotted monthly SNAP benefits were spent on dairy products, while the 2023 USDA study showed that spending grew to 10.9%.
00:02:01.840 --> 00:02:07.840
Dairy, which includes eggs, now ranks as the most purchased food category among SNAP participants.
00:02:08.159 --> 00:02:20.319
USDA also found that dairy represents a larger share of total grocery spending than any other food category among both SNAP and non-SNAP households overtaking carbonated soft drinks.
00:02:21.120 --> 00:02:37.520
USDA's estimate of average SNAP spending of$187.20 per person per month multiplied by the number of SNAP participants in July 2026 equates to$6.8 billion in total spending.
00:02:37.759 --> 00:02:46.080
If dairy represents 10.9% of this amount, total dairy spending in July 2026 would be$739 million.
00:02:47.039 --> 00:03:07.680
Using these same metrics but applying them to the number of SNAP participants in July of last year, prior to the implementation of New York requirements, total dairy spending would have been$852 million, and the decline in dairy spending from July to July 26 would be$113 million over that one year span.
00:03:08.719 --> 00:03:21.840
Switching over to beef news, the five area choice deer prices gained$3 a hundredweight last week over the prior week to end with a weekly average of$227.06 a hundredweight.
00:03:22.080 --> 00:03:32.639
However, the comprehensive cutout loss ground averaging$371.93$100 weight against$376.100 weight the prior week.
00:03:32.879 --> 00:03:47.439
Consequently, Sterling's estimated beef packer margin lost nearly$100 ahead last week, ending at just$54.36 a head compared to$155.06 per head the prior week.
00:03:47.680 --> 00:04:01.439
Though still posting red ink, the estimated feelot margin showed some improvement and averaged a negative$226.16 ahead against$244.70 per head a week earlier.
00:04:01.759 --> 00:04:11.680
If you want the full sterling profit tracker data, you can access it on the Drover's article that you can connect with through a link on BlackDirtDaily.com.
00:04:12.719 --> 00:04:16.160
Wrapping up in commodity markets, an article on successful farming.
00:04:16.319 --> 00:04:23.839
Producers are facing a December 11 deadline to make their commodity program election decisions for the 2026 crop year.
00:04:24.160 --> 00:04:36.879
Today's article includes context for the 2026 ARC CO and PLC programs and provides guidance and information resources to assist farmers with their enrollment decisions.
00:04:37.120 --> 00:04:47.600
For most situations, current price projections and yield expectations suggest ARCCO would trigger larger payments for corn and soybean base acres.
00:04:47.839 --> 00:04:59.360
For wheat base acres, current projections suggest that ARC, CO, and PLC have more similar expected payment levels with a slight edge towards PLC in most areas.
00:04:59.920 --> 00:05:09.600
However, individual farm situations can vary and producers are encouraged to use the decision tools and other resources available to assist in their program enrollment decision.
00:05:10.560 --> 00:05:20.639
For PLC payments to be triggered for corn base acres in 2026, the marketing year average would need to be below the effective reference price of$4.42.
00:05:21.680 --> 00:05:27.360
The 2026-27 average for corn is currently projected at$4.70 a bushel.
00:05:27.759 --> 00:05:33.600
Thus, no PLC payments would be triggered for corn for 2026 at the current price projection.
00:05:34.079 --> 00:05:39.439
Of course, the actual average price could be below or above current projections.
00:05:39.759 --> 00:05:45.040
The ARC benchmark price for 2026 is$5.03 per bushel.
00:05:45.199 --> 00:05:54.240
Since ARC CO is a county revenue program, average county yields will be combined with the actual marketing year average to determine payments.
00:05:54.560 --> 00:06:05.519
For counties with 2026 yields at benchmark levels, ARC CO payments would be triggered at an actual average price of$4.53 or lower.
00:06:05.759 --> 00:06:11.839
This is based on the ARCCO's revenue guarantee of 90% of benchmark revenue.
00:06:12.560 --> 00:06:18.959
For counties with yields above benchmark, lower prices would need to occur for ARCCO to make payments.
00:06:19.199 --> 00:06:25.279
For counties with yields above benchmark, ARCCO could trigger payments at higher prices.
00:06:25.759 --> 00:06:37.680
Overall, for counties where the average yield for 2026 is expected to be near or below benchmark levels, ARCCO would be expected to be more likely to trigger larger payments than PLC.
00:06:38.160 --> 00:06:45.279
There's a whole lot more information in this SF article that can be accessed through the link on BlackDirtDaily.com.
00:06:46.800 --> 00:06:48.000
Well, that's all for now.
00:06:48.079 --> 00:06:52.160
As always, thanks for tuning in to ChatBDC and once again Go Brewers.
00:06:52.240 --> 00:06:54.079
If you found this useful, drop me a comment.
00:06:54.240 --> 00:06:58.560
Be sure to check out BlackDirtDaily.com for the full stories behind these topics.
00:06:58.800 --> 00:07:02.000
Don't forget to sign up for the Black Dirt Daily newsletter.
00:07:02.240 --> 00:07:05.759
I'll be back tomorrow with more business news across Dag and Financial Markets.
00:07:05.839 --> 00:07:08.800
Until then, I'm Michael Opperman and goodbye for now.
00:00:10.720 --> 00:00:21.280
Hello and welcome to Chat BDC or the top stories of Black Dirt Daily today, which is Thursday, October 29th, one day after the Milwaukee Brewers won the World Series.
00:00:21.920 --> 00:00:29.120
They were going to talk about dairy's role in SNAP, pack earned feedlot margins, and government safety nets in commodity markets.
00:00:29.280 --> 00:00:30.960
So let's get to it.
00:00:31.679 --> 00:00:37.759
Start out looking at data related to this supplemental nutrition assistance program as of July 2026.
00:00:37.840 --> 00:00:43.759
All changes in SNAP work requirements were in effect, and any extension waivers had lapsed.
00:00:43.840 --> 00:00:58.240
SNAP participants declined 13.3%, roughly 5.5 million Americans, in July 2026 compared to July 2025, prior to the implementation of the Budget Reconciliation Act.
00:00:58.399 --> 00:01:19.599
Although USDA may significantly revise the 2026 participation data, the trend of more than 10% fewer SNAP participants compared to 2025 has persisted since April 2026, suggesting that changes established under the Budget Reconciliation Bill have contributed to a substantial decline in participation.
00:01:20.239 --> 00:01:32.000
Fewer participants translates to fewer SNAP dollars available for grocery purchases, including dairy products potentially weighing on retail dairy purchasing and consumption.
00:01:32.400 --> 00:01:44.239
Although there's fewer participants in the SNAP program today than a year ago and thus fewer overall dollars being spent, Americans are also allocating a larger share of their grocery budgets to dairy products.
00:01:45.760 --> 00:02:00.560
In the 2011 study, USDA found that roughly 9% of the participants allotted monthly SNAP benefits were spent on dairy products, while the 2023 USDA study showed that spending grew to 10.9%.
00:02:01.840 --> 00:02:07.840
Dairy, which includes eggs, now ranks as the most purchased food category among SNAP participants.
00:02:08.159 --> 00:02:20.319
USDA also found that dairy represents a larger share of total grocery spending than any other food category among both SNAP and non-SNAP households overtaking carbonated soft drinks.
00:02:21.120 --> 00:02:37.520
USDA's estimate of average SNAP spending of$187.20 per person per month multiplied by the number of SNAP participants in July 2026 equates to$6.8 billion in total spending.
00:02:37.759 --> 00:02:46.080
If dairy represents 10.9% of this amount, total dairy spending in July 2026 would be$739 million.
00:02:47.039 --> 00:03:07.680
Using these same metrics but applying them to the number of SNAP participants in July of last year, prior to the implementation of New York requirements, total dairy spending would have been$852 million, and the decline in dairy spending from July to July 26 would be$113 million over that one year span.
00:03:08.719 --> 00:03:21.840
Switching over to beef news, the five area choice deer prices gained$3 a hundredweight last week over the prior week to end with a weekly average of$227.06 a hundredweight.
00:03:22.080 --> 00:03:32.639
However, the comprehensive cutout loss ground averaging$371.93$100 weight against$376.100 weight the prior week.
00:03:32.879 --> 00:03:47.439
Consequently, Sterling's estimated beef packer margin lost nearly$100 ahead last week, ending at just$54.36 a head compared to$155.06 per head the prior week.
00:03:47.680 --> 00:04:01.439
Though still posting red ink, the estimated feelot margin showed some improvement and averaged a negative$226.16 ahead against$244.70 per head a week earlier.
00:04:01.759 --> 00:04:11.680
If you want the full sterling profit tracker data, you can access it on the Drover's article that you can connect with through a link on BlackDirtDaily.com.
00:04:12.719 --> 00:04:16.160
Wrapping up in commodity markets, an article on successful farming.
00:04:16.319 --> 00:04:23.839
Producers are facing a December 11 deadline to make their commodity program election decisions for the 2026 crop year.
00:04:24.160 --> 00:04:36.879
Today's article includes context for the 2026 ARC CO and PLC programs and provides guidance and information resources to assist farmers with their enrollment decisions.
00:04:37.120 --> 00:04:47.600
For most situations, current price projections and yield expectations suggest ARCCO would trigger larger payments for corn and soybean base acres.
00:04:47.839 --> 00:04:59.360
For wheat base acres, current projections suggest that ARC, CO, and PLC have more similar expected payment levels with a slight edge towards PLC in most areas.
00:04:59.920 --> 00:05:09.600
However, individual farm situations can vary and producers are encouraged to use the decision tools and other resources available to assist in their program enrollment decision.
00:05:10.560 --> 00:05:20.639
For PLC payments to be triggered for corn base acres in 2026, the marketing year average would need to be below the effective reference price of$4.42.
00:05:21.680 --> 00:05:27.360
The 2026-27 average for corn is currently projected at$4.70 a bushel.
00:05:27.759 --> 00:05:33.600
Thus, no PLC payments would be triggered for corn for 2026 at the current price projection.
00:05:34.079 --> 00:05:39.439
Of course, the actual average price could be below or above current projections.
00:05:39.759 --> 00:05:45.040
The ARC benchmark price for 2026 is$5.03 per bushel.
00:05:45.199 --> 00:05:54.240
Since ARC CO is a county revenue program, average county yields will be combined with the actual marketing year average to determine payments.
00:05:54.560 --> 00:06:05.519
For counties with 2026 yields at benchmark levels, ARC CO payments would be triggered at an actual average price of$4.53 or lower.
00:06:05.759 --> 00:06:11.839
This is based on the ARCCO's revenue guarantee of 90% of benchmark revenue.
00:06:12.560 --> 00:06:18.959
For counties with yields above benchmark, lower prices would need to occur for ARCCO to make payments.
00:06:19.199 --> 00:06:25.279
For counties with yields above benchmark, ARCCO could trigger payments at higher prices.
00:06:25.759 --> 00:06:37.680
Overall, for counties where the average yield for 2026 is expected to be near or below benchmark levels, ARCCO would be expected to be more likely to trigger larger payments than PLC.
00:06:38.160 --> 00:06:45.279
There's a whole lot more information in this SF article that can be accessed through the link on BlackDirtDaily.com.
00:06:46.800 --> 00:06:48.000
Well, that's all for now.
00:06:48.079 --> 00:06:52.160
As always, thanks for tuning in to ChatBDC and once again Go Brewers.
00:06:52.240 --> 00:06:54.079
If you found this useful, drop me a comment.
00:06:54.240 --> 00:06:58.560
Be sure to check out BlackDirtDaily.com for the full stories behind these topics.
00:06:58.800 --> 00:07:02.000
Don't forget to sign up for the Black Dirt Daily newsletter.
00:07:02.240 --> 00:07:05.759
I'll be back tomorrow with more business news across Dag and Financial Markets.
00:07:05.839 --> 00:07:08.800
Until then, I'm Michael Opperman and goodbye for now.
