ABOUT THIS EPISODE
In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded September 24, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA and Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk are joined by Bitwise Europe's Head of Research André Dragosch and Research Analyst Max Shannon to unpack the two teams' joint report, "The Bitcoin Bottom Explained."
With the US 10-year yield above 5.1% and the Fed back in hiking mode, the panel first weighs whether the sovereign bond rout spills over into equities and crypto. The conversation then turns to the two independent frameworks, Bitwise's on-chain model and the CF Benchmarks market cycle engine, that both point to June 30 at $58,000 as the likely cycle low, before stress-testing the bear case and closing with the week ahead.
Chapters:
00:00 – Intro & Welcome: Bitwise Europe Joins the Space
02:29 – The Global Sovereign Bond Rout
07:26 – MOVE vs VIX: A Bond-Equity Disconnect
09:28 – Is the Fed Behind the Curve? The Shadow Rate Signal
12:07 – Crypto Check-In: ETF Flows & Key Levels
14:44 – CME Basis Expansion & the ETH/BTC Rotation
19:45 – The Bitcoin Bottom Explained
23:31 – Bitwise's On-Chain Model: Seller Exhaustion Meets Demand
26:01 – CFB's Market Cycle Engine: Regimes, Breadth & Thrust
32:56 – Forward Returns & Regime-Flip Alpha
39:16 – Steelmanning the Bears: Is Another Leg Down Possible?
42:58 – M2 Growth, Correlations & the Decoupling Debate
46:19 – The Alligator Jaw: Bitcoin vs Global Money Supply
47:38 – AI Equity Rollover Risk
51:58 – Week Ahead: Key Things to Watch
