00:00:00
Speaker 1: What these young bloods have to understand, that this game has always been and will always be about buckets. Just attack the basket. Stop it!
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Speaker 2: Stop it! You cannot do it like that! Oh!
00:00:18
Speaker 3: With no regard for human life! Bang! Bang!
00:00:24
Speaker 1: I cannot believe you've done it again!
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Speaker 4: Are you kidding me?
00:00:28
Speaker 3: Oh! Welcome to Buckets by DraftKings Sportsbook. We're back, baby.
00:00:36
Speaker 1: We're back.
00:00:37
Speaker 3: The NBA season is here and we have best bets for you for the opening slate of the NBA season 26-27. Thanks for joining us. I'm your host, Matt Moore. Joined for this episode by Brian Fonseca. Brian Fonseca, NY from the New York Post sports page, as well as his own page. You can catch him at youtube.com slash Brian Fonseca at Brian Fonseca. Um, you can catch him Brian, but it's like an NY on Twitter. Also join me, Michael fiddle at Phil's picks, the maestro of the market. He joined me on an episode with Raheem Palmer for the ringer gambling show where he, um, talked in the, I, I allowed, I haven't, I have held fiddle in for long enough and allowed him to completely nerd out about all of, uh, the market tendencies and ways to attack the market and how to approach process betting. So if you really want to get in the weeds, go check that one out, uh, in your feeds.
00:01:27
Speaker 1: Right.
00:01:28
Speaker 3: Now, on today's show, like I said, we will talk about the three NBA games that are on the slate, including a game that I am still just like really struggling with the fact that it starts at 3 p.m.
00:01:40
Speaker 1: Eastern.
00:01:41
Speaker 3: People have jobs, NBA. Not me, but like real people, other people have real jobs. But we'll get to all those today. Before we get started, don't forget to download the free award-winning Action Network app. And if you want to get a step further, you can sign up for Action Pro. Our listeners get $ 20 off their first year of Action Pro by using promo code POD20 at actionnetwork.com slash pro. As we record this on Monday afternoon, I have less than 24 hours to cash my minus 250 bet on Brandon Anderson to log at least 20 NBA futures before the season starts, despite him saying he's not going to do any prep work on it. Clock's ticking, but I feel confident we're going to get home. I don't know how, but we're going to get home on this. You can catch all of Brandon's futures as well as all of our bets. If you sign up for Action Pro with going to actionnetwork.com slash pro and using code pod 20 plus. BetSync is back in the Action Network app now. You can automatically track your activity access across 15 plus sports books and prediction markets all in one place. Connect your accounts once and your bets and trades will automatically appear as soon as you place them. No manual tracking required. Just open the Action app. Head to my accounts, connect your sports book or prediction market, and you're ready to go. All right, we have three games on the slate for opening night in the NBA. The Detroit Pistons were minus one and a half. That line has moved while I was recording podcast today. The Boston Celtics are now minus one and a half at DraftKings. Minus 105 is your juice on that. Total 222 and a half in the market. Juiced to the under at minus 115. Moneyline is Celtics minus 112. That will be relevant later. Philadelphia 76ers take on the Knicks in Banner Night for New York. Knicks are four and a half point favorites. Juice towards the Knicks. Totals 231 and a half in the market. Juice towards the over. Sixers on the Moneyline are plus 154. Knicks are minus 185. Thunder taking on the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals rematch. The Spurs are minus two and a half. It's a juice to plus two and a half towards the Oklahoma city thunder on the road. Totals two 31 and a half juiced again towards the over slightly a thunder plus one 14 on the money line.
00:03:58
Speaker 4: All right.
00:03:58
Speaker 3: We're going to get into best bets as a reminder of how this works. I got to remember how we do this. We have three bets from each of us. Three star, two star, one star, three star bets are absolute. We're in it full unit. We feel great about those two stars.
00:04:11
Speaker 2: Like them.
00:04:12
Speaker 1: We like them.
00:04:13
Speaker 3: They're playable. One stars are typically leans, leans, Or I'm dabbling in on this from a longer perspective. Especially Brian Fonseca because he's a fucking coward. We will start, however, with Michael Fiddle. I want to get your first play on the slate. Michael Fiddle, kick us off. What's your three-star bet for NBA opening night?
00:04:35
Speaker 4: First three-star bet of the season is going to be a player prop.
00:04:38
Speaker 1: On Chet Holmgren.
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Speaker 4: Under 13.5 points. For Chet, he is injured and has not played throughout preseason. And the market is fully pricing him into the game. Now, I wouldn't be surprised if he's out for this game. He has been seen at the most recent Thunder practice getting some shots up. Dagnall said he wasn't going to speak to his availability, but said everyone did a little at practice today. I really just don't expect coach Mark Dagnall of the Thunder to play Chet Holmgren 28 minutes after playing zero preseason games.
00:05:13
Speaker 1: So I think this is a.
00:05:14
Speaker 4: Clear spot where if Chet plays, he's going to be on a minutes limit. So this is, for me, a clear underplay. And I think the funny part to this, for me at least, is we just had Shams tweet those changes to NBA betting that the league was working in compliance with some of the prominent sportsbooks that you can't parlay unders for certain players. You can't bet on players who are projected to play 12 minutes or less you can't it was specially their unders you can't um what was the other one i'm missing one of them but anyways all these changes come out and my my reaction to that was like this is generally a vast overreaction the last one was like uh the highly riggable markets like the first basket first assist type markets are gone so it's like the markets where there's potentially some shenanigans are just not going to be available to limit you know any kind of negative PR. Like there was a baseball pitcher who was like intentionally throwing first. I think that's where it's coming from. But anyways, my whole reaction was like, this is an overreaction. Like it's not that big of a deal. And I said, there is a slight loss of edge in that you can't parlay certain players unders like Chet Holmgren's obviously not rigging markets. He's worth hundreds of millions of dollars. He's not the one we're worried about. And so there are people who want to shoot angles of like, well, He might play way less minutes, so this is the night to parlay all his unders.
00:06:39
Speaker 1: Matt and Brian, it took.
00:06:40
Speaker 4: Zero games for me to find a spot that I would love to parlay all the unders for. And I'm just going to play his under 13.5 points. I think he can pretty much play any Chet under as a straight prop for this game and play it that way as well. But I don't think he's going to get the minutes that would be requisite for this type of average.
00:07:01
Speaker 1: He averaged 28.9 last season.
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Speaker 4: I think he's closer in the 18 to 22 range for this game if he does play at all.
00:07:08
Speaker 1: And so give me the chat under.
00:07:11
Speaker 3: I like I go to fiddle first.
00:07:14
Speaker 1: Hey, fiddle.
00:07:14
Speaker 3: What's your first bet for the all season? Everybody's so excited. What's fiddle? What's your first bet? Oh, I bet that 50% might get voided because he won't play. That's that's my first. That's my first three star play.
00:07:25
Speaker 1: Won't be now.
00:07:27
Speaker 3: On brand Michael fiddle.
00:07:29
Speaker 1: All right, Brian.
00:07:29
Speaker 3: But second, where are you going? You're going to the late slate here. And you want to get in on everybody's favorite San Antonio guard, Dylan Harper.
00:07:40
Speaker 2: Dylan Harper over points, rebounds, assists, 23 and a half, which I would imagine will be a popular one since it's been announced that he'll be in the starting lineup. Is it confirmed that it's going to be the four guards plus Wemby? Or are we just confirming that it's Dylan Harper in the starting lineup? Okay, so we're doing Fox, Vassell, Castle, Harper, Wemby. I kind of think Champagne should take Vassell's spot, but maybe we'll get there in November or December. Or that Harper should just take Fox's spot, but that's another conversation for another day. I don't know how long they're going to do this. I don't know how long this is going to work for because I think Champagne, who Matt, you'll talk about later, is like the perfect glue guy to have in a starting lineup where you have all these ball handlers and all these guys who can create different shots. But Dylan Harper is too good to continue to bring him off the bench. He made that clear during the finals. He made that clear during the playoffs, frankly, at times during the regular season. And again, reiterated this one more time, which is why he's starting now. And when he plays, he gets usage. I think as long as he's a starter all season long, I kind of expect him to be second in usage for this team. I think this is a number and this is sort of what I'm looking at on opening night. and the opening week in general, what are these early season numbers that I think are too low? If Dylan Harper is going to start, don't we think he's going to average more than 23.5 PRA during the season? Probably. Probably a decent amount more than that, if he's as good as we think this second year. If that's the case, we're starting off low here. This is a theme for me. I don't know how much longer this number is going to be available. To me, I'm going to jump on it, especially against Spurs, You know, this is a rivalry matchup. Dylan Harper's had some decent games against them, against the Oklahoma City Thunder. But yeah, I think this is just me projecting what I expect from Harper during the season. And we'll start off here at 23 and a half because I don't know how much longer he's going to live in the low 20s as it relates to PRA projections.
00:09:49
Speaker 1: Okay. Okay. I'm a little skeptical.
00:09:52
Speaker 3: I think the hype around Dylan Harper is a little bit much. I think he can be a top five player in the league within like 10 years. I also think we're a little we're getting a little bit ahead of ourselves he took advantage a lot of how the knicks defended him in the finals.
00:10:08
Speaker 2: He just needs like a 16 7 and 4 and we're good yeah yeah it's true um That's actually way over.
00:10:15
Speaker 3: I did look at his three pointer prop over because of the way that the Knicks defend and pick and rolls. I think there's an opportunity there for, for Harper to be able to get up. But I also looked at the matchups last year and across the course of the season, there just weren't enough catch and shoot opportunities for Harper. I still think he's going to be trigger man instead of initiator. I just don't think that they're going to be like, here you go, kid, take the keys. I think it's still going to be Fox and castle and he's going to be a finisher for the most part, which means I'm worried about the assists and I'm worried a little bit about the points. but I understand you getting in on this. Should put some respect on De'Aaron Fox's name. Fox was hurt, had a bad series. Fox is still really good. They value what he does.
00:10:54
Speaker 2: Do you think Champagny should start for one of these guys? Is Tobias out?
00:10:59
Speaker 3: Did I miss this?
00:11:01
Speaker 2: He has a calf injury.
00:11:03
Speaker 3: I was going to say.
00:11:04
Speaker 4: Tobias should probably start when he's healthy again.
00:11:07
Speaker 3: I think it's probably Tobias. I don't know if that's the best one. I get what you're saying, Brian, because Champagne is just a crack shooter. He's just a crack shooter.
00:11:17
Speaker 2: I get it. He never needs the ball offensively.
00:11:21
Speaker 3: But they like having five. What the league is moving towards, and Spurs are part of this, is having five guys who can all handle, shoot, and pass. They want five interchangeable guys that nobody's a specialist. And Champagne is definitely a specialist. So I think that's one of the reasons why.
00:11:37
Speaker 2: I mean, but he gives you great spacing.
00:11:39
Speaker 3: I know. I agree, because I'm just kind of like, look, man, just run Fox pick and roll with Weminyama, and then they have to react to it, and then you just kick to the corner. If you've just done that more in the finals, maybe you don't give up the lead 700 times. All right, my three-star bet of the night is going to be Nick Sixers under 231.5. I'm going head-to-head with Fiddle on this one a little bit later on in his slate.
00:12:04
Speaker 1: The Tuesday.
00:12:07
Speaker 3: the Tuesday night openers tend to go under the rate across all time has been about 60%. That has dipped in more recent years, particularly since COVID that's dipped a little bit, but I did look this up even since COVID the average total on these games is two 26 and a half. This was a two 31 and I've got, A Knicks team that's probably going to be a little bit emotional. Like, this is a more emotional, I think, championship night than some others that you're going to see. Like, I don't think that the Celtics was that emotional. I honestly don't think the Thunder was that emotional because the kids are just like, this is.
00:12:43
Speaker 1: What we're supposed to do.
00:12:44
Speaker 3: Everything is easy. It's not as emotional as the Knicks because Jokic is dead inside. This one is.
00:12:51
Speaker 2: Denver.
00:12:52
Speaker 1: Yeah, Denver. Sorry.
00:12:54
Speaker 3: This one with the Knicks is very emotional.
00:12:56
Speaker 1: Right? So.
00:12:58
Speaker 3: I think that'll cause it. I also think that the Sixers offense, this has been my prediction is that the Sixers offense is going to be clunky to start. You got Jalen Brown, Joel and B LeBron James all operate in the same area of the court, which is essentially the nail and extended elbow areas. That's where a vast majority of their shots come from. There's too much overlap. They got to figure out how to play around each other and how to get out of each other's way. It's going to be a little clunky. And I think that that's going to be, there's going to be some turnovers. Jalen Brown will be a part of that turnover machine. Um, And I think that there will be a little bit of clunkiness and lower shooting. I don't think Dean Wade will play enough to adequately space. The bench might space appropriately for Philly. So I'm a little bit worried about, especially like any lineup that is maxi and in bead with Simon spacing. I'm going to be like, oh no, that's going to boost this over. But I do think the starters are likely to play heavy minutes. I think it's going to be clunky. I think it's going to be awkward. I think the trend's, play towards an under i think this line is higher than what you're what you're average going to see for an opener in this kind of spot so i'm going to take the next next six years under 231 and a half um let's go ahead and hit to get this out of the way fiddles one star because fiddles going against me on this nick sixers he's taking the over 231 and a half it'll give me your cap.
00:14:14
Speaker 4: Yeah i like how you preference prefaced in the beginning like one star is kind of like lean or or less of a of a big play because I took 228 and a half towards the over um like weeks ago when these lines were first starting to come out so it's gone up a little bit it's it actually hit 233 and a half and it started to work its way back down I'm still like subjectively a little bit on the over here but I don't think market wise there's like huge value either way I think the number is pretty sharp at this point But I do think that, you know, they the Sixers often started to play a lot better last year when they were willing to leave Joel Embiid in the dust and kind of just run transition and be like, if you don't cross half court by the time we get our shots up, that's OK. We're not going to wait for you to plot up. So I think they're still going to run between Edgecombe, Brown, Maxie and LeBron. I think they're still going to run in transition a lot. And I think the Knicks are going to try and counteract and run a lot in their own transition as well. And then you spoke to it well, the Sixers bench unit. I actually have a lot of faith into score. And so I think that Dean Wade with Simon's combo is just going to be really well spaced out and going to be able to shoot really well.
00:15:22
Speaker 1: So for those reasons, I still do like the over.
00:15:24
Speaker 4: I think there's a little bit of an overreaction in market to the new rules about hand checking and illegal screens and those points of emphasis that the refs laid out there. So I still like the over subjectively, but it's one star because I don't think the number is going to move too much in either direction anymore.
00:15:41
Speaker 1: Okay.
00:15:43
Speaker 3: Before we continue, let's get to a quick word from our sponsor at DraftKings. Buckets is sponsored by DraftKings, where new customers can turn $ 5 into $ 200 in total bonus rewards this basketball season. DraftKings Sports is now available in all 50 states, bringing the excitement straight to your fingertips, no matter where you're watching. From Florida to Texas to California, you'll never miss a beat. Follow every moment, every matchup, and every highlight in a seamless experience all in one app. So if you're new to DraftKings, be sure to sign up with code BUCKETS. Spend $ 5 and get $ 200 in total rewards. That's code BUCKETS. Download the DraftKings Sports app and keep basketball at your fingertips all season long. DraftKings, the crown is yours. All right, let's get to the two-star bets. I'm going to go back to Brian Fonseca. who's got to play on a Boston Celtics shooter, which I know he's got to be thrilled about.
00:16:40
Speaker 2: Be careful. Um, Peyton Pritchard over 15 and a half points in the 3 PM game, which I don't know why we're doing that. I don't know what the point of that is, but okay. Uh, maybe it'll work. Maybe it'll draw a great number. I don't know. Um, it probably will be on in every bar in the country. Uh, so that'll help the ratings. Um, I think Peyton Pritchard's speaking back to or touching on again what I mentioned earlier in terms of guys outperforming their projections. I think we're going to get a lot of 20-point games from Peyton Pritchard this year. I'm going to stop short of saying he's going to average 20. I don't know if that's going to be the case, but I think he's going to have a bunch of games as he has in previous years, but more so this year because without Jalen Brown, I don't think this is going to be a one-person game swallows up all the usage that Jalen Brown sort of left on the table. Obviously you just reinsert Jason Tatum and he's going to do a lot of that, but with better playmaking. And I think Paul George fits in pretty seamlessly, but I think Peyton Pritchard is probably the guy who levels up the most relative to like all the other guys who are not stars on the Celtics team. Like this is a number that I think he's going to exceed like, pretty much like, like pretty often early on in the year to where we're starting to see 17 and a half, 18 and a half and things of that nature. I know this isn't like the, the best matchup for it, but I also don't know what to expect of Detroit defensively this year relative to before. I still think there'll be a really good defense, but you know, the personnel is slightly different. We have to see how that goes, but I think Peyton Pritchard will be able to get to his three point shot in this game. He'll be able to get some of these pull-up looks and, With the focus of, you know, Jason Tatum commanding a lot of the focus. And just overall, I don't care what his role is in terms of whether he actually ends up getting into the starting lineup at some point, whether he comes off the bench. Obviously, if he's a six-man, it's easier for him to sort of lead that second unit. But I just think he's going to get a lot of opportunities now. He's probably going to be the person who statistically benefits the most from Jalen Brown being gone. From a shock race standpoint, they need him. From a three-point standpoint, they're going to need him. He's just going to get a lot of opportunities, and I think this number's a little bit low to start out.
00:19:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a pretty baffling line. I understand that they're basing it off of the preseason where he was still coming off the bench. I'm not convinced. Like, I wouldn't be surprised if he started game one. Would not be shocked at all if he started game one.
00:19:15
Speaker 2: And it would be him, White, Tatum, George, and Cato.
00:19:21
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:19:21
Speaker 2: I mean, or Cato or Mitchell Robinson.
00:19:23
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:19:24
Speaker 3: Like this, the Celtics have broadcast that like, One of the reasons that they felt okay about the Jalen Brown trade, and there's a lot of reasons they felt okay about that trade. One of them was Peyton Pritchard. Like they genuinely are just like, yeah, no, we're good.
00:19:38
Speaker 1: We have Pritchard. We're good.
00:19:40
Speaker 3: Like, yeah, it sucks. Jalen's really good, but we have Pritchard.
00:19:42
Speaker 1: It'll be okay.
00:19:43
Speaker 3: Like he'll make up for a lot of that. Um, I think Pritchard's going to have a huge usage role on this team on ball on ball. Like, I don't think he's just a spot up shooter. I think he is just going to be a focal point of this offense to the point where if you want to give Tatum, if you like possession breaks, you're more likely to give, I think Pritchard the ball than even PG, right? who's got so much experience with the ball. So yeah, this number feels extremely soft to me.
00:20:09
Speaker 1: Fiddle.
00:20:11
Speaker 4: Yeah, I, I for sure agree. I mean, I've been huge on Peyton. I made the joke that, uh, the one player who's short, uh, number 11 has videos of himself as a kid practicing and could take the Jalen Brunson leap. If there's anyone next in the, in the NBA, his name is Peyton Pritchard. Uh, so yeah, I think a huge usage rate bump is coming and I agree. I wouldn't be surprised if he's a starter, uh, Do you guys have any lean on if it's Mitchell Robinson or Kata?
00:20:39
Speaker 1: Kata.
00:20:39
Speaker 2: I feel like it's Kata because it worked last year.
00:20:43
Speaker 4: Mitchell Robinson came off the bench in New York anyways.
00:20:48
Speaker 3: One, you want to reward the guy that's come up through your system as put the time in. You don't want to jump in front of him and you definitely don't want to jump in front of him with a guy who needs the maintenance for his body and is unreliable so you don't want to build chemistry with a guy who might miss time and then you have to figure then you have to No. So I think it's, I think it's Kata for sure. Yeah.
00:21:07
Speaker 2: Mitchell Robinson hasn't played a back-to-back in like three years or something along those lines. So it makes more sense to start Kata. Although I do think Mitch will play, he'll play like he'll play consistently, but Kata should start.
00:21:21
Speaker 3: I'm looking up how many games Pritchard had.
00:21:24
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:21:25
Speaker 3: Yeah. Pritchard had.
00:21:26
Speaker 2: Okay.
00:21:27
Speaker 1: So yeah.
00:21:28
Speaker 3: What the hell is this line? Richard had 45 games last year where he had more than 15 and a half.
00:21:36
Speaker 1: I guess just the defenders. And yeah.
00:21:38
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:21:38
Speaker 2: That's what I wonder is like, is it, is it like, Oh, he doesn't do it against great defenses all the time.
00:21:43
Speaker 3: Maybe I guess if a SARS dogged him, that's, that's fair, but man.
00:21:47
Speaker 2: But it's usually increased. But is this are going to be dogging him?
00:21:50
Speaker 1: Him? Yeah.
00:21:53
Speaker 3: We'll see now. So I'm with you on this. I'm going to, I'm going to tell you on this for sure.
00:21:57
Speaker 2: A great bet by Brian. All right.
00:21:59
Speaker 3: I am once again, head to head with fiddle. I wonder how this is going to work out. Not, I saw this rundown and was just like, God damn it. First day. So not only am I on the under and he's on the over and Nick Sixers, I'm taking pistons plus one and a half.
00:22:11
Speaker 2: Now you can both win.
00:22:14
Speaker 3: That's true.
00:22:16
Speaker 1: This is true. With a Peyton Pritchard game winning half court shot.
00:22:20
Speaker 3: Yeah. Fiddle is on Celtics money line. this really is just like a power rating play. And, you know, I don't, I'm not going to use a lot of the spread projections heavy in the regular season. I've talked about this on previous shows. I'm leaning more towards matchup. I'm going to do more stuff with matchups this year. I think that's where my strength is, but I have the Pistons power rated higher. So I can't get to a spot where they're at home and now they're, and I didn't like them when the, like, I liked them in minus one and a half. Cause I make a 2.8. I just think that this, the Detroit is good enough for them to get the respect of the, being favored in this matchup. I do not think that Boston is decidedly ahead of them. I do not think that Boston, I.
00:23:00
Speaker 2: Think Boston's good.
00:23:01
Speaker 3: I'm also high on Boston. These are my two top teams in the Eastern Conference. But I am not predicting a fall off from Detroit. I like their offseason. I think John Collins is a more complete player for the system that they run than Tobias Harris was, even though I respect and love Toby. I think Isaiah Joe is a sneaky addition with being able to provide real spacing around Kate Cunningham. in those bench minutes, that's really valuable. Just having a pure shooter in this regard, a SAR looks better on ball than he did last year. He has improved. I was concerned about Jalen Duran because I was like, I don't know what kind of shape he's in. I don't know what he's been doing. And then he came into like his preseason game and destroyed everything like Godzilla. So look, I like the center matchup. I lean towards, you know, Cade over both guards. I think a SAR versus white is interesting. as far as like a combination here, um, power forward, you know, PG is better if he's playing power forward. Um, if it's Tatum, obviously Tatum is better. Uh, but like, I, I like the length of Detroit in this matchup. I like the way that they match up with them in terms of a physicality standpoint. I, I know that there's a math advantage between, For Boston, because Detroit doesn't take enough threes, I think that's going to be mitigated somewhat by their roster changes and some of the tweaks that they've done to their offense. So I think this line is incorrect, and I like the Detroit Pistons plus one and a half. Fidel, you like the Celtics on the money line.
00:24:32
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like the Celtics on the money line. And we just did a strategy podcast with Raheem. And towards the end of it, you asked me for my half point values of what line movements are worth. And sometimes money line is the better price than spread and vice versa. This is a great example right here where at DraftKings, the money line on Celtics is minus 112. But the line is Celtics minus one and a half minus one oh five. So there's a seven point seven cent gap to lay two points or just to buy the insurance for the for the money line. It's actually worth 12 cents. So you're saving five cents by grabbing the money line. Inversely, Matt, with you, you're the money line for the Pistons is minus one oh eight. But the plus 1.5 is minus 115. So you're also more incentivized to take the plus 1.5.
00:25:20
Speaker 1: And I'm more incentivized.
00:25:21
Speaker 4: It's objectively in a vacuum that we're each choosing the better line here with what the value is. So I think that's like a good starting point. But yeah, I just disagree on the center matchup. I think 48 minutes of lengthy, athletic, strong rebounding bigs is a decent neutralization factor against Durin.
00:25:38
Speaker 1: I do have a slight downgrade. We talked about the 3 p.m. start. I do have a slight downgrade in home court advantage.
00:25:45
Speaker 4: In these early start times, especially on a Tuesday in a blue collar city of Detroit. Like how nuts are they going to be going on Tuesday at three o'clock? So I do have a slight downgrade on what the home court advantage is worth in this environment, especially with first travel of the year for Boston. And I think Boston's net rating stuff is just so phenomenal with this group. And I expect Paul George to slide in pretty seamlessly. So yeah, I'm going to go Celtics here, hoping that, you know, the bench is strong. the starters I expect to win their minutes and the home court advantage should be a little weakened.
00:26:17
Speaker 1: Okay. Okay.
00:26:19
Speaker 3: God help me. We'll see if I can sneak one out here on fiddle. Uh, we're going to one star bets. We've already talked about fiddles play on the next six years over. Uh, I'm going to take Julian champagne over 1.5, three pointers made. I'm laying the juice at minus one 70. I'm trying to be more assertive with taking these kinds of lines. And I want to bet more three point props this year. Um, this just comes down to the thunders profile under Mark Dagnall has been, Hey, we pick a guy and that guy we're going to leave open. And it's usually a corner shooter. And it has, it really was last year. It was Julian champagne. Like he's left him open consistently. I'm not worried about, I want him on this number and not points. I don't want to mess with any other metric because of kind of what we talked about with the uncertainty around the rotation, where it's like, what if Tobias Harris gets upgraded or what if they, you know, what if they start champagne, but what if they start them? So what if, you know, all these kinds of things, I just still think champagne is going to play a lot. And I think that he's going to get good looks and the thunder have consistently shown a propensity to give up three pointers. It's weird that they're the most elite defense in the world, but they're, they do give up a high three point rate. Their closeouts are great, but champagne is able to, able to hit them pretty consistently. Uh, so I'm going to take Julian champagne over one and a half, three pointers minus one 70 for our final bet on the slate. As Michael Fiddle attends to his puppy dog, uh, Finseca, uh, are you trolling me with all these Celtics? But like, are you, this, this is some, with how I know you feel about Boston, this is not Boston, but this is a Boston guy. It's Jalen Brown. You're taking Jalen Brown over 20 and a half right away. Jalen's going to get it started and like make Boston regret their decision.
00:27:56
Speaker 1: Huh?
00:27:58
Speaker 2: Well, I don't know if he's going to do that because I don't know how many shots he'll take, but, I kind of think in looking at this Philly team, look at how he's played in the preseason. I don't want to over index on preseason, but from everything we've learned about Jalen Brown, it would suggest that he internalizes criticism and he wants to prove people wrong. And that's not like slander or anything of that nature. It's just to give you a framework of how I'm thinking. Like he's going to get the attempts because he will make sure of it. whether it's better or worse or they win or they lose, whatever, whatever. I just think fundamentally, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he came in and led this team in field goal attempts per game. As a matter of fact, I think if there were a market for that, he'd probably be the favorite above Tyrese Maxey because Tyrese Maxey seems to be more deferential. He'll delegate. We all think he's capable of running an offense and averaging 30 plus points a game, but I don't know if he's always going to want to do that given who's on his team, given, you know, and given the way Philly is going to play this, like I just, Jalen Brown, I think is going to probably feed off of that energy too. Like we talked about the, the emotions in that building for Nick Sixers. I think Jalen Brown's going to feed off of that also. So I just think he's going to put up to, he's going to have too many attempts for me to think, oh yeah, he'll be under 20. It's just a matter of, okay. Is he going to go seven for 18 and go under? I think there's a world where he could put up 21, 22 shots and it wouldn't surprise me even with everybody out there in Philadelphia. So for me, this is more of a lean, but I'm just looking at, okay, another number. that, and this will obviously be higher if and when LeBron is out, if and when Joel Embiid is out. But I don't know much about what this Philly offense is going to be. One thing I do know is Jalen Brown is going to shoot. He will get his shots up more than anything else. So for me, I'm looking at that and I'm saying, okay, He's going to be the guy that I look at here. And I do wonder how the Knicks guard that. Like, they've experimented with OG on Tyrese Maxey. I wonder if that's something we're going to see right off the bat, like how they sort of spread this around because Philadelphia is going to have what we think is going to be a more dynamic offense. But as long as Jalen Brown isn't guarded by OG the entire game, and even if he is, I think it's the regular season, so we're good. I just think he's going to shoot so much. He can get to the free throw line, obviously, and he's going to try to put his thumbprint on the game. Heller Highwater. Seems likely.
00:30:29
Speaker 3: It's funny, all the analysis coming out, like Derek Bodnar over at PHLA was talking about like, man, the Maxie Embiid pick and roll looks so good. And I'm like, I'm glad it looks good because you may not see it much depending on who gets the ball and when. I think that Sixers offense is one of the most fascinating things to watch. Again, it's another reason why I like the under here. But again, I'm kind of up on you because you're taking Brown over and obviously.
00:30:51
Speaker 2: Fiddle's... Reverse correlation. There you go.
00:30:54
Speaker 3: Reverse correlation.
00:30:55
Speaker 1: There you go.
00:30:56
Speaker 3: All right, before we go, we're going to recap our three-star best bets here presented by DraftKings. Michael Fiddle likes Chet Holmgren under 13.5 points. Brian Fitzsack, Dylan Harper over PRA 23.5. And I'm on the Knicks Sixers under 231.5. Those are our best bets presented by DraftKings. Don't forget to use code BUCKETS when signing up for a great offer. DraftKings, the crown is yours. All right. Episode one of Best Bets in the books. We'll be back with you tomorrow night. Breaking down the, I'm so excited for the Wednesday slate. I'm so excited for the way, like the Tuesday slate's good. The Wednesday slate's going to be so good. I'm very excited about it. Lots of plays to get to. Make sure to come back. Give us a five-star review. Give us a like. Check us out at youtube.com slash the action network. Download us wherever you get podcasts. Feedback's a gift. If you want to tail some of the bets from our shows, look for the quick slip link in the podcast and video description. Go to actionnetwork.com slash bets. There's a little QR code at the top of this video where you can snag them. Don't miss our live shows Sunday through Monday at 11 p.m. Eastern with best bets for the next day's slate. See you next time. Till then, let's get buckets.
00:32:10
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24 7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
Speaker 1: What these young bloods have to understand, that this game has always been and will always be about buckets. Just attack the basket. Stop it!
00:00:12
Speaker 2: Stop it! You cannot do it like that! Oh!
00:00:18
Speaker 3: With no regard for human life! Bang! Bang!
00:00:24
Speaker 1: I cannot believe you've done it again!
00:00:27
Speaker 4: Are you kidding me?
00:00:28
Speaker 3: Oh! Welcome to Buckets by DraftKings Sportsbook. We're back, baby.
00:00:36
Speaker 1: We're back.
00:00:37
Speaker 3: The NBA season is here and we have best bets for you for the opening slate of the NBA season 26-27. Thanks for joining us. I'm your host, Matt Moore. Joined for this episode by Brian Fonseca. Brian Fonseca, NY from the New York Post sports page, as well as his own page. You can catch him at youtube.com slash Brian Fonseca at Brian Fonseca. Um, you can catch him Brian, but it's like an NY on Twitter. Also join me, Michael fiddle at Phil's picks, the maestro of the market. He joined me on an episode with Raheem Palmer for the ringer gambling show where he, um, talked in the, I, I allowed, I haven't, I have held fiddle in for long enough and allowed him to completely nerd out about all of, uh, the market tendencies and ways to attack the market and how to approach process betting. So if you really want to get in the weeds, go check that one out, uh, in your feeds.
00:01:27
Speaker 1: Right.
00:01:28
Speaker 3: Now, on today's show, like I said, we will talk about the three NBA games that are on the slate, including a game that I am still just like really struggling with the fact that it starts at 3 p.m.
00:01:40
Speaker 1: Eastern.
00:01:41
Speaker 3: People have jobs, NBA. Not me, but like real people, other people have real jobs. But we'll get to all those today. Before we get started, don't forget to download the free award-winning Action Network app. And if you want to get a step further, you can sign up for Action Pro. Our listeners get $ 20 off their first year of Action Pro by using promo code POD20 at actionnetwork.com slash pro. As we record this on Monday afternoon, I have less than 24 hours to cash my minus 250 bet on Brandon Anderson to log at least 20 NBA futures before the season starts, despite him saying he's not going to do any prep work on it. Clock's ticking, but I feel confident we're going to get home. I don't know how, but we're going to get home on this. You can catch all of Brandon's futures as well as all of our bets. If you sign up for Action Pro with going to actionnetwork.com slash pro and using code pod 20 plus. BetSync is back in the Action Network app now. You can automatically track your activity access across 15 plus sports books and prediction markets all in one place. Connect your accounts once and your bets and trades will automatically appear as soon as you place them. No manual tracking required. Just open the Action app. Head to my accounts, connect your sports book or prediction market, and you're ready to go. All right, we have three games on the slate for opening night in the NBA. The Detroit Pistons were minus one and a half. That line has moved while I was recording podcast today. The Boston Celtics are now minus one and a half at DraftKings. Minus 105 is your juice on that. Total 222 and a half in the market. Juiced to the under at minus 115. Moneyline is Celtics minus 112. That will be relevant later. Philadelphia 76ers take on the Knicks in Banner Night for New York. Knicks are four and a half point favorites. Juice towards the Knicks. Totals 231 and a half in the market. Juice towards the over. Sixers on the Moneyline are plus 154. Knicks are minus 185. Thunder taking on the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals rematch. The Spurs are minus two and a half. It's a juice to plus two and a half towards the Oklahoma city thunder on the road. Totals two 31 and a half juiced again towards the over slightly a thunder plus one 14 on the money line.
00:03:58
Speaker 4: All right.
00:03:58
Speaker 3: We're going to get into best bets as a reminder of how this works. I got to remember how we do this. We have three bets from each of us. Three star, two star, one star, three star bets are absolute. We're in it full unit. We feel great about those two stars.
00:04:11
Speaker 2: Like them.
00:04:12
Speaker 1: We like them.
00:04:13
Speaker 3: They're playable. One stars are typically leans, leans, Or I'm dabbling in on this from a longer perspective. Especially Brian Fonseca because he's a fucking coward. We will start, however, with Michael Fiddle. I want to get your first play on the slate. Michael Fiddle, kick us off. What's your three-star bet for NBA opening night?
00:04:35
Speaker 4: First three-star bet of the season is going to be a player prop.
00:04:38
Speaker 1: On Chet Holmgren.
00:04:39
Speaker 4: Under 13.5 points. For Chet, he is injured and has not played throughout preseason. And the market is fully pricing him into the game. Now, I wouldn't be surprised if he's out for this game. He has been seen at the most recent Thunder practice getting some shots up. Dagnall said he wasn't going to speak to his availability, but said everyone did a little at practice today. I really just don't expect coach Mark Dagnall of the Thunder to play Chet Holmgren 28 minutes after playing zero preseason games.
00:05:13
Speaker 1: So I think this is a.
00:05:14
Speaker 4: Clear spot where if Chet plays, he's going to be on a minutes limit. So this is, for me, a clear underplay. And I think the funny part to this, for me at least, is we just had Shams tweet those changes to NBA betting that the league was working in compliance with some of the prominent sportsbooks that you can't parlay unders for certain players. You can't bet on players who are projected to play 12 minutes or less you can't it was specially their unders you can't um what was the other one i'm missing one of them but anyways all these changes come out and my my reaction to that was like this is generally a vast overreaction the last one was like uh the highly riggable markets like the first basket first assist type markets are gone so it's like the markets where there's potentially some shenanigans are just not going to be available to limit you know any kind of negative PR. Like there was a baseball pitcher who was like intentionally throwing first. I think that's where it's coming from. But anyways, my whole reaction was like, this is an overreaction. Like it's not that big of a deal. And I said, there is a slight loss of edge in that you can't parlay certain players unders like Chet Holmgren's obviously not rigging markets. He's worth hundreds of millions of dollars. He's not the one we're worried about. And so there are people who want to shoot angles of like, well, He might play way less minutes, so this is the night to parlay all his unders.
00:06:39
Speaker 1: Matt and Brian, it took.
00:06:40
Speaker 4: Zero games for me to find a spot that I would love to parlay all the unders for. And I'm just going to play his under 13.5 points. I think he can pretty much play any Chet under as a straight prop for this game and play it that way as well. But I don't think he's going to get the minutes that would be requisite for this type of average.
00:07:01
Speaker 1: He averaged 28.9 last season.
00:07:04
Speaker 4: I think he's closer in the 18 to 22 range for this game if he does play at all.
00:07:08
Speaker 1: And so give me the chat under.
00:07:11
Speaker 3: I like I go to fiddle first.
00:07:14
Speaker 1: Hey, fiddle.
00:07:14
Speaker 3: What's your first bet for the all season? Everybody's so excited. What's fiddle? What's your first bet? Oh, I bet that 50% might get voided because he won't play. That's that's my first. That's my first three star play.
00:07:25
Speaker 1: Won't be now.
00:07:27
Speaker 3: On brand Michael fiddle.
00:07:29
Speaker 1: All right, Brian.
00:07:29
Speaker 3: But second, where are you going? You're going to the late slate here. And you want to get in on everybody's favorite San Antonio guard, Dylan Harper.
00:07:40
Speaker 2: Dylan Harper over points, rebounds, assists, 23 and a half, which I would imagine will be a popular one since it's been announced that he'll be in the starting lineup. Is it confirmed that it's going to be the four guards plus Wemby? Or are we just confirming that it's Dylan Harper in the starting lineup? Okay, so we're doing Fox, Vassell, Castle, Harper, Wemby. I kind of think Champagne should take Vassell's spot, but maybe we'll get there in November or December. Or that Harper should just take Fox's spot, but that's another conversation for another day. I don't know how long they're going to do this. I don't know how long this is going to work for because I think Champagne, who Matt, you'll talk about later, is like the perfect glue guy to have in a starting lineup where you have all these ball handlers and all these guys who can create different shots. But Dylan Harper is too good to continue to bring him off the bench. He made that clear during the finals. He made that clear during the playoffs, frankly, at times during the regular season. And again, reiterated this one more time, which is why he's starting now. And when he plays, he gets usage. I think as long as he's a starter all season long, I kind of expect him to be second in usage for this team. I think this is a number and this is sort of what I'm looking at on opening night. and the opening week in general, what are these early season numbers that I think are too low? If Dylan Harper is going to start, don't we think he's going to average more than 23.5 PRA during the season? Probably. Probably a decent amount more than that, if he's as good as we think this second year. If that's the case, we're starting off low here. This is a theme for me. I don't know how much longer this number is going to be available. To me, I'm going to jump on it, especially against Spurs, You know, this is a rivalry matchup. Dylan Harper's had some decent games against them, against the Oklahoma City Thunder. But yeah, I think this is just me projecting what I expect from Harper during the season. And we'll start off here at 23 and a half because I don't know how much longer he's going to live in the low 20s as it relates to PRA projections.
00:09:49
Speaker 1: Okay. Okay. I'm a little skeptical.
00:09:52
Speaker 3: I think the hype around Dylan Harper is a little bit much. I think he can be a top five player in the league within like 10 years. I also think we're a little we're getting a little bit ahead of ourselves he took advantage a lot of how the knicks defended him in the finals.
00:10:08
Speaker 2: He just needs like a 16 7 and 4 and we're good yeah yeah it's true um That's actually way over.
00:10:15
Speaker 3: I did look at his three pointer prop over because of the way that the Knicks defend and pick and rolls. I think there's an opportunity there for, for Harper to be able to get up. But I also looked at the matchups last year and across the course of the season, there just weren't enough catch and shoot opportunities for Harper. I still think he's going to be trigger man instead of initiator. I just don't think that they're going to be like, here you go, kid, take the keys. I think it's still going to be Fox and castle and he's going to be a finisher for the most part, which means I'm worried about the assists and I'm worried a little bit about the points. but I understand you getting in on this. Should put some respect on De'Aaron Fox's name. Fox was hurt, had a bad series. Fox is still really good. They value what he does.
00:10:54
Speaker 2: Do you think Champagny should start for one of these guys? Is Tobias out?
00:10:59
Speaker 3: Did I miss this?
00:11:01
Speaker 2: He has a calf injury.
00:11:03
Speaker 3: I was going to say.
00:11:04
Speaker 4: Tobias should probably start when he's healthy again.
00:11:07
Speaker 3: I think it's probably Tobias. I don't know if that's the best one. I get what you're saying, Brian, because Champagne is just a crack shooter. He's just a crack shooter.
00:11:17
Speaker 2: I get it. He never needs the ball offensively.
00:11:21
Speaker 3: But they like having five. What the league is moving towards, and Spurs are part of this, is having five guys who can all handle, shoot, and pass. They want five interchangeable guys that nobody's a specialist. And Champagne is definitely a specialist. So I think that's one of the reasons why.
00:11:37
Speaker 2: I mean, but he gives you great spacing.
00:11:39
Speaker 3: I know. I agree, because I'm just kind of like, look, man, just run Fox pick and roll with Weminyama, and then they have to react to it, and then you just kick to the corner. If you've just done that more in the finals, maybe you don't give up the lead 700 times. All right, my three-star bet of the night is going to be Nick Sixers under 231.5. I'm going head-to-head with Fiddle on this one a little bit later on in his slate.
00:12:04
Speaker 1: The Tuesday.
00:12:07
Speaker 3: the Tuesday night openers tend to go under the rate across all time has been about 60%. That has dipped in more recent years, particularly since COVID that's dipped a little bit, but I did look this up even since COVID the average total on these games is two 26 and a half. This was a two 31 and I've got, A Knicks team that's probably going to be a little bit emotional. Like, this is a more emotional, I think, championship night than some others that you're going to see. Like, I don't think that the Celtics was that emotional. I honestly don't think the Thunder was that emotional because the kids are just like, this is.
00:12:43
Speaker 1: What we're supposed to do.
00:12:44
Speaker 3: Everything is easy. It's not as emotional as the Knicks because Jokic is dead inside. This one is.
00:12:51
Speaker 2: Denver.
00:12:52
Speaker 1: Yeah, Denver. Sorry.
00:12:54
Speaker 3: This one with the Knicks is very emotional.
00:12:56
Speaker 1: Right? So.
00:12:58
Speaker 3: I think that'll cause it. I also think that the Sixers offense, this has been my prediction is that the Sixers offense is going to be clunky to start. You got Jalen Brown, Joel and B LeBron James all operate in the same area of the court, which is essentially the nail and extended elbow areas. That's where a vast majority of their shots come from. There's too much overlap. They got to figure out how to play around each other and how to get out of each other's way. It's going to be a little clunky. And I think that that's going to be, there's going to be some turnovers. Jalen Brown will be a part of that turnover machine. Um, And I think that there will be a little bit of clunkiness and lower shooting. I don't think Dean Wade will play enough to adequately space. The bench might space appropriately for Philly. So I'm a little bit worried about, especially like any lineup that is maxi and in bead with Simon spacing. I'm going to be like, oh no, that's going to boost this over. But I do think the starters are likely to play heavy minutes. I think it's going to be clunky. I think it's going to be awkward. I think the trend's, play towards an under i think this line is higher than what you're what you're average going to see for an opener in this kind of spot so i'm going to take the next next six years under 231 and a half um let's go ahead and hit to get this out of the way fiddles one star because fiddles going against me on this nick sixers he's taking the over 231 and a half it'll give me your cap.
00:14:14
Speaker 4: Yeah i like how you preference prefaced in the beginning like one star is kind of like lean or or less of a of a big play because I took 228 and a half towards the over um like weeks ago when these lines were first starting to come out so it's gone up a little bit it's it actually hit 233 and a half and it started to work its way back down I'm still like subjectively a little bit on the over here but I don't think market wise there's like huge value either way I think the number is pretty sharp at this point But I do think that, you know, they the Sixers often started to play a lot better last year when they were willing to leave Joel Embiid in the dust and kind of just run transition and be like, if you don't cross half court by the time we get our shots up, that's OK. We're not going to wait for you to plot up. So I think they're still going to run between Edgecombe, Brown, Maxie and LeBron. I think they're still going to run in transition a lot. And I think the Knicks are going to try and counteract and run a lot in their own transition as well. And then you spoke to it well, the Sixers bench unit. I actually have a lot of faith into score. And so I think that Dean Wade with Simon's combo is just going to be really well spaced out and going to be able to shoot really well.
00:15:22
Speaker 1: So for those reasons, I still do like the over.
00:15:24
Speaker 4: I think there's a little bit of an overreaction in market to the new rules about hand checking and illegal screens and those points of emphasis that the refs laid out there. So I still like the over subjectively, but it's one star because I don't think the number is going to move too much in either direction anymore.
00:15:41
Speaker 1: Okay.
00:15:43
Speaker 3: Before we continue, let's get to a quick word from our sponsor at DraftKings. Buckets is sponsored by DraftKings, where new customers can turn $ 5 into $ 200 in total bonus rewards this basketball season. DraftKings Sports is now available in all 50 states, bringing the excitement straight to your fingertips, no matter where you're watching. From Florida to Texas to California, you'll never miss a beat. Follow every moment, every matchup, and every highlight in a seamless experience all in one app. So if you're new to DraftKings, be sure to sign up with code BUCKETS. Spend $ 5 and get $ 200 in total rewards. That's code BUCKETS. Download the DraftKings Sports app and keep basketball at your fingertips all season long. DraftKings, the crown is yours. All right, let's get to the two-star bets. I'm going to go back to Brian Fonseca. who's got to play on a Boston Celtics shooter, which I know he's got to be thrilled about.
00:16:40
Speaker 2: Be careful. Um, Peyton Pritchard over 15 and a half points in the 3 PM game, which I don't know why we're doing that. I don't know what the point of that is, but okay. Uh, maybe it'll work. Maybe it'll draw a great number. I don't know. Um, it probably will be on in every bar in the country. Uh, so that'll help the ratings. Um, I think Peyton Pritchard's speaking back to or touching on again what I mentioned earlier in terms of guys outperforming their projections. I think we're going to get a lot of 20-point games from Peyton Pritchard this year. I'm going to stop short of saying he's going to average 20. I don't know if that's going to be the case, but I think he's going to have a bunch of games as he has in previous years, but more so this year because without Jalen Brown, I don't think this is going to be a one-person game swallows up all the usage that Jalen Brown sort of left on the table. Obviously you just reinsert Jason Tatum and he's going to do a lot of that, but with better playmaking. And I think Paul George fits in pretty seamlessly, but I think Peyton Pritchard is probably the guy who levels up the most relative to like all the other guys who are not stars on the Celtics team. Like this is a number that I think he's going to exceed like, pretty much like, like pretty often early on in the year to where we're starting to see 17 and a half, 18 and a half and things of that nature. I know this isn't like the, the best matchup for it, but I also don't know what to expect of Detroit defensively this year relative to before. I still think there'll be a really good defense, but you know, the personnel is slightly different. We have to see how that goes, but I think Peyton Pritchard will be able to get to his three point shot in this game. He'll be able to get some of these pull-up looks and, With the focus of, you know, Jason Tatum commanding a lot of the focus. And just overall, I don't care what his role is in terms of whether he actually ends up getting into the starting lineup at some point, whether he comes off the bench. Obviously, if he's a six-man, it's easier for him to sort of lead that second unit. But I just think he's going to get a lot of opportunities now. He's probably going to be the person who statistically benefits the most from Jalen Brown being gone. From a shock race standpoint, they need him. From a three-point standpoint, they're going to need him. He's just going to get a lot of opportunities, and I think this number's a little bit low to start out.
00:19:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a pretty baffling line. I understand that they're basing it off of the preseason where he was still coming off the bench. I'm not convinced. Like, I wouldn't be surprised if he started game one. Would not be shocked at all if he started game one.
00:19:15
Speaker 2: And it would be him, White, Tatum, George, and Cato.
00:19:21
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:19:21
Speaker 2: I mean, or Cato or Mitchell Robinson.
00:19:23
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:19:24
Speaker 3: Like this, the Celtics have broadcast that like, One of the reasons that they felt okay about the Jalen Brown trade, and there's a lot of reasons they felt okay about that trade. One of them was Peyton Pritchard. Like they genuinely are just like, yeah, no, we're good.
00:19:38
Speaker 1: We have Pritchard. We're good.
00:19:40
Speaker 3: Like, yeah, it sucks. Jalen's really good, but we have Pritchard.
00:19:42
Speaker 1: It'll be okay.
00:19:43
Speaker 3: Like he'll make up for a lot of that. Um, I think Pritchard's going to have a huge usage role on this team on ball on ball. Like, I don't think he's just a spot up shooter. I think he is just going to be a focal point of this offense to the point where if you want to give Tatum, if you like possession breaks, you're more likely to give, I think Pritchard the ball than even PG, right? who's got so much experience with the ball. So yeah, this number feels extremely soft to me.
00:20:09
Speaker 1: Fiddle.
00:20:11
Speaker 4: Yeah, I, I for sure agree. I mean, I've been huge on Peyton. I made the joke that, uh, the one player who's short, uh, number 11 has videos of himself as a kid practicing and could take the Jalen Brunson leap. If there's anyone next in the, in the NBA, his name is Peyton Pritchard. Uh, so yeah, I think a huge usage rate bump is coming and I agree. I wouldn't be surprised if he's a starter, uh, Do you guys have any lean on if it's Mitchell Robinson or Kata?
00:20:39
Speaker 1: Kata.
00:20:39
Speaker 2: I feel like it's Kata because it worked last year.
00:20:43
Speaker 4: Mitchell Robinson came off the bench in New York anyways.
00:20:48
Speaker 3: One, you want to reward the guy that's come up through your system as put the time in. You don't want to jump in front of him and you definitely don't want to jump in front of him with a guy who needs the maintenance for his body and is unreliable so you don't want to build chemistry with a guy who might miss time and then you have to figure then you have to No. So I think it's, I think it's Kata for sure. Yeah.
00:21:07
Speaker 2: Mitchell Robinson hasn't played a back-to-back in like three years or something along those lines. So it makes more sense to start Kata. Although I do think Mitch will play, he'll play like he'll play consistently, but Kata should start.
00:21:21
Speaker 3: I'm looking up how many games Pritchard had.
00:21:24
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:21:25
Speaker 3: Yeah. Pritchard had.
00:21:26
Speaker 2: Okay.
00:21:27
Speaker 1: So yeah.
00:21:28
Speaker 3: What the hell is this line? Richard had 45 games last year where he had more than 15 and a half.
00:21:36
Speaker 1: I guess just the defenders. And yeah.
00:21:38
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:21:38
Speaker 2: That's what I wonder is like, is it, is it like, Oh, he doesn't do it against great defenses all the time.
00:21:43
Speaker 3: Maybe I guess if a SARS dogged him, that's, that's fair, but man.
00:21:47
Speaker 2: But it's usually increased. But is this are going to be dogging him?
00:21:50
Speaker 1: Him? Yeah.
00:21:53
Speaker 3: We'll see now. So I'm with you on this. I'm going to, I'm going to tell you on this for sure.
00:21:57
Speaker 2: A great bet by Brian. All right.
00:21:59
Speaker 3: I am once again, head to head with fiddle. I wonder how this is going to work out. Not, I saw this rundown and was just like, God damn it. First day. So not only am I on the under and he's on the over and Nick Sixers, I'm taking pistons plus one and a half.
00:22:11
Speaker 2: Now you can both win.
00:22:14
Speaker 3: That's true.
00:22:16
Speaker 1: This is true. With a Peyton Pritchard game winning half court shot.
00:22:20
Speaker 3: Yeah. Fiddle is on Celtics money line. this really is just like a power rating play. And, you know, I don't, I'm not going to use a lot of the spread projections heavy in the regular season. I've talked about this on previous shows. I'm leaning more towards matchup. I'm going to do more stuff with matchups this year. I think that's where my strength is, but I have the Pistons power rated higher. So I can't get to a spot where they're at home and now they're, and I didn't like them when the, like, I liked them in minus one and a half. Cause I make a 2.8. I just think that this, the Detroit is good enough for them to get the respect of the, being favored in this matchup. I do not think that Boston is decidedly ahead of them. I do not think that Boston, I.
00:23:00
Speaker 2: Think Boston's good.
00:23:01
Speaker 3: I'm also high on Boston. These are my two top teams in the Eastern Conference. But I am not predicting a fall off from Detroit. I like their offseason. I think John Collins is a more complete player for the system that they run than Tobias Harris was, even though I respect and love Toby. I think Isaiah Joe is a sneaky addition with being able to provide real spacing around Kate Cunningham. in those bench minutes, that's really valuable. Just having a pure shooter in this regard, a SAR looks better on ball than he did last year. He has improved. I was concerned about Jalen Duran because I was like, I don't know what kind of shape he's in. I don't know what he's been doing. And then he came into like his preseason game and destroyed everything like Godzilla. So look, I like the center matchup. I lean towards, you know, Cade over both guards. I think a SAR versus white is interesting. as far as like a combination here, um, power forward, you know, PG is better if he's playing power forward. Um, if it's Tatum, obviously Tatum is better. Uh, but like, I, I like the length of Detroit in this matchup. I like the way that they match up with them in terms of a physicality standpoint. I, I know that there's a math advantage between, For Boston, because Detroit doesn't take enough threes, I think that's going to be mitigated somewhat by their roster changes and some of the tweaks that they've done to their offense. So I think this line is incorrect, and I like the Detroit Pistons plus one and a half. Fidel, you like the Celtics on the money line.
00:24:32
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like the Celtics on the money line. And we just did a strategy podcast with Raheem. And towards the end of it, you asked me for my half point values of what line movements are worth. And sometimes money line is the better price than spread and vice versa. This is a great example right here where at DraftKings, the money line on Celtics is minus 112. But the line is Celtics minus one and a half minus one oh five. So there's a seven point seven cent gap to lay two points or just to buy the insurance for the for the money line. It's actually worth 12 cents. So you're saving five cents by grabbing the money line. Inversely, Matt, with you, you're the money line for the Pistons is minus one oh eight. But the plus 1.5 is minus 115. So you're also more incentivized to take the plus 1.5.
00:25:20
Speaker 1: And I'm more incentivized.
00:25:21
Speaker 4: It's objectively in a vacuum that we're each choosing the better line here with what the value is. So I think that's like a good starting point. But yeah, I just disagree on the center matchup. I think 48 minutes of lengthy, athletic, strong rebounding bigs is a decent neutralization factor against Durin.
00:25:38
Speaker 1: I do have a slight downgrade. We talked about the 3 p.m. start. I do have a slight downgrade in home court advantage.
00:25:45
Speaker 4: In these early start times, especially on a Tuesday in a blue collar city of Detroit. Like how nuts are they going to be going on Tuesday at three o'clock? So I do have a slight downgrade on what the home court advantage is worth in this environment, especially with first travel of the year for Boston. And I think Boston's net rating stuff is just so phenomenal with this group. And I expect Paul George to slide in pretty seamlessly. So yeah, I'm going to go Celtics here, hoping that, you know, the bench is strong. the starters I expect to win their minutes and the home court advantage should be a little weakened.
00:26:17
Speaker 1: Okay. Okay.
00:26:19
Speaker 3: God help me. We'll see if I can sneak one out here on fiddle. Uh, we're going to one star bets. We've already talked about fiddles play on the next six years over. Uh, I'm going to take Julian champagne over 1.5, three pointers made. I'm laying the juice at minus one 70. I'm trying to be more assertive with taking these kinds of lines. And I want to bet more three point props this year. Um, this just comes down to the thunders profile under Mark Dagnall has been, Hey, we pick a guy and that guy we're going to leave open. And it's usually a corner shooter. And it has, it really was last year. It was Julian champagne. Like he's left him open consistently. I'm not worried about, I want him on this number and not points. I don't want to mess with any other metric because of kind of what we talked about with the uncertainty around the rotation, where it's like, what if Tobias Harris gets upgraded or what if they, you know, what if they start champagne, but what if they start them? So what if, you know, all these kinds of things, I just still think champagne is going to play a lot. And I think that he's going to get good looks and the thunder have consistently shown a propensity to give up three pointers. It's weird that they're the most elite defense in the world, but they're, they do give up a high three point rate. Their closeouts are great, but champagne is able to, able to hit them pretty consistently. Uh, so I'm going to take Julian champagne over one and a half, three pointers minus one 70 for our final bet on the slate. As Michael Fiddle attends to his puppy dog, uh, Finseca, uh, are you trolling me with all these Celtics? But like, are you, this, this is some, with how I know you feel about Boston, this is not Boston, but this is a Boston guy. It's Jalen Brown. You're taking Jalen Brown over 20 and a half right away. Jalen's going to get it started and like make Boston regret their decision.
00:27:56
Speaker 1: Huh?
00:27:58
Speaker 2: Well, I don't know if he's going to do that because I don't know how many shots he'll take, but, I kind of think in looking at this Philly team, look at how he's played in the preseason. I don't want to over index on preseason, but from everything we've learned about Jalen Brown, it would suggest that he internalizes criticism and he wants to prove people wrong. And that's not like slander or anything of that nature. It's just to give you a framework of how I'm thinking. Like he's going to get the attempts because he will make sure of it. whether it's better or worse or they win or they lose, whatever, whatever. I just think fundamentally, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he came in and led this team in field goal attempts per game. As a matter of fact, I think if there were a market for that, he'd probably be the favorite above Tyrese Maxey because Tyrese Maxey seems to be more deferential. He'll delegate. We all think he's capable of running an offense and averaging 30 plus points a game, but I don't know if he's always going to want to do that given who's on his team, given, you know, and given the way Philly is going to play this, like I just, Jalen Brown, I think is going to probably feed off of that energy too. Like we talked about the, the emotions in that building for Nick Sixers. I think Jalen Brown's going to feed off of that also. So I just think he's going to put up to, he's going to have too many attempts for me to think, oh yeah, he'll be under 20. It's just a matter of, okay. Is he going to go seven for 18 and go under? I think there's a world where he could put up 21, 22 shots and it wouldn't surprise me even with everybody out there in Philadelphia. So for me, this is more of a lean, but I'm just looking at, okay, another number. that, and this will obviously be higher if and when LeBron is out, if and when Joel Embiid is out. But I don't know much about what this Philly offense is going to be. One thing I do know is Jalen Brown is going to shoot. He will get his shots up more than anything else. So for me, I'm looking at that and I'm saying, okay, He's going to be the guy that I look at here. And I do wonder how the Knicks guard that. Like, they've experimented with OG on Tyrese Maxey. I wonder if that's something we're going to see right off the bat, like how they sort of spread this around because Philadelphia is going to have what we think is going to be a more dynamic offense. But as long as Jalen Brown isn't guarded by OG the entire game, and even if he is, I think it's the regular season, so we're good. I just think he's going to shoot so much. He can get to the free throw line, obviously, and he's going to try to put his thumbprint on the game. Heller Highwater. Seems likely.
00:30:29
Speaker 3: It's funny, all the analysis coming out, like Derek Bodnar over at PHLA was talking about like, man, the Maxie Embiid pick and roll looks so good. And I'm like, I'm glad it looks good because you may not see it much depending on who gets the ball and when. I think that Sixers offense is one of the most fascinating things to watch. Again, it's another reason why I like the under here. But again, I'm kind of up on you because you're taking Brown over and obviously.
00:30:51
Speaker 2: Fiddle's... Reverse correlation. There you go.
00:30:54
Speaker 3: Reverse correlation.
00:30:55
Speaker 1: There you go.
00:30:56
Speaker 3: All right, before we go, we're going to recap our three-star best bets here presented by DraftKings. Michael Fiddle likes Chet Holmgren under 13.5 points. Brian Fitzsack, Dylan Harper over PRA 23.5. And I'm on the Knicks Sixers under 231.5. Those are our best bets presented by DraftKings. Don't forget to use code BUCKETS when signing up for a great offer. DraftKings, the crown is yours. All right. Episode one of Best Bets in the books. We'll be back with you tomorrow night. Breaking down the, I'm so excited for the Wednesday slate. I'm so excited for the way, like the Tuesday slate's good. The Wednesday slate's going to be so good. I'm very excited about it. Lots of plays to get to. Make sure to come back. Give us a five-star review. Give us a like. Check us out at youtube.com slash the action network. Download us wherever you get podcasts. Feedback's a gift. If you want to tail some of the bets from our shows, look for the quick slip link in the podcast and video description. Go to actionnetwork.com slash bets. There's a little QR code at the top of this video where you can snag them. Don't miss our live shows Sunday through Monday at 11 p.m. Eastern with best bets for the next day's slate. See you next time. Till then, let's get buckets.
00:32:10
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24 7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
