00:00:00
Speaker 1: What these young bloods have to understand, that this game has always been and will always be about buckets. Just attack the basket.
00:00:11
Speaker 2: Stop it!
00:00:11
Speaker 1: Stop it! Do it like that!
00:00:17
Speaker 3: Oh!
00:00:17
Speaker 2: With no regard for human life!
00:00:23
Speaker 3: Bang!
00:00:23
Speaker 4: Bang!
00:00:23
Speaker 3: I cannot believe you've done it again!
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Speaker 1: Are you kidding me?
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Speaker 5: Oh!
00:00:32
Speaker 1: Welcome to Buckets!
00:00:35
Speaker 6: The NBA season is here. My name is Matt Moore. This show is brought to you by DraftKings Sportsbook. The NBA season is right around the corner. And to get us started, I've got the whole crew with me. And we're going to do an NBA Futures Draft. We're actually going to go through. We've got categories. You have to fill out your entire slate. There will be betrayals. There will be objections. There will be Brief explanations because we have to make this work inside of an hour. Because Brian Fonseca needs to go draft Musa Diabate with the first overall pick of his fantasy draft. We have a lot to get to tonight. We're glad to have you guys with us. Make sure if you're watching live on YouTube that you give us a like and subscribe. Feel free to agree or disagree with the picks. I would love to hear what you guys think are the best picks that are taken from a strategic standpoint of this. And which are.
00:01:31
Speaker 1: Which.
00:01:32
Speaker 6: are the worst as well. Don't forget to download the free award-winning Action Network app. And if you want to take it a step further, sign up for Action Pro. Our listeners can get $ 20 off their first year of Action Pro by using promo code POD20 at actionnetwork.com slash pro. Plus, BetSync is back in the Action app. And now you can automatically track your activity across 15 plus sports books and prediction markets all at once. Connect your accounts once and your bets and trades will automatically appear as soon as you place them. No manual tracking required. Just open the Action app, head to My Accounts, connect your sportsbook or prediction market, and you're ready to go. All right, here are our contestants on tonight's draft. Myself, Matt Moore, Brian Fonseca, Brandon Kravitz, BK, the man straight out of a 1970s porn film, Joe Dallara, Michael Fiddle, and of course, from Roto-Grinders, Jim Favreau. turvy i do want like that joe is no longer wearing the robe that he was wearing on the last episode that i did with him which just frankly made me very uncomfortable i'm glad although i will say his wife has assured me several times that she enjoys this look that he is rocking so i need to like just accept that i'm out of touch with like current styles so good to see you joe thanks.
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Speaker 7: I uh threw the robe in the laundry so.
00:02:49
Speaker 6: Okay well now i'm uncomfortable again Win total, award, long shot, title, and division. Those are our categories on the night. You can see them on the board here at youtube.com slash the action network. Win total, an award. You got to go a long shot. I did plus 400 or longer because that is actually a pretty long shot, but most of the guys will go way longer than that. Title, and then a division bet. You have to get through all of them. in order to fill out your card. We do have a snake draft. We're going to start tonight with Brian Fonseca. Brian, you get first pick.
00:03:27
Speaker 7: What do you want first?
00:03:29
Speaker 2: Indiana Pacers to win the title at plus $ 4, 000. Woo!
00:03:32
Speaker 3: Wow!
00:03:32
Speaker 6: Coming out hot!
00:03:34
Speaker 7: Is that your long shot or your title pick? That's your title pick?
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Speaker 6: Is that your title pick or your long shot?
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Speaker 2: No, that's my title pick.
00:03:41
Speaker 4: Matt, where do I send in the chat about the terrible draft picks?
00:03:46
Speaker 8: Oh, this number is too fucking low. Like, why are they behind the Heat, the Cavs, and the Pistons? And the Celtics, for that matter. Like, that just doesn't make sense to me. I understand Tyrese Halliburton's coming back from a devastating injury, but this team is good. Even their win total is like 43.5. Like, I just don't understand it. I know the East is deeper, better, but I think the entire summer, like, I've just been staring at all these Pacers numbers, and they're just too low. I just think this team's going to be better than 43.5 or is a legit contender and has one of the most seven, eight meaningful players in basketball right now coming back into their lineup. So, yeah, I'm going with Halliburton and I'm going with the Pacers.
00:04:27
Speaker 1: That was spicy.
00:04:28
Speaker 3: You go ahead, Jim.
00:04:30
Speaker 7: No, I give a chip.
00:04:31
Speaker 4: But honestly, if you're going to play the Pacers, go for the like shoot the moon. It's like if Halliburton is back at Halliburton levels. I do think that like we just saw the last time they were healthy, they were there. in a game seven and could have won it. So I'm low on the Pacers. So it was surprising.
00:04:44
Speaker 7: It's surprising. I was like the first pick of this draft, but listen, I fucking respect it.
00:04:48
Speaker 2: I was going to start off with something boring, a fucking wind total.
00:04:52
Speaker 7: I love it. I'm so glad. I'm so nobody wants to see.
00:04:55
Speaker 8: Nobody wants to hear fucking warriors under 38 and a half to start this pot.
00:05:00
Speaker 2: That's for the other pot.
00:05:01
Speaker 6: Well, now I'm taking warriors under 38 and a half. I get to be my turn.
00:05:04
Speaker 1: Go ahead. Okay.
00:05:06
Speaker 8: All right.
00:05:07
Speaker 6: Finseca starts off red hot with this one. Pacers, it's 40 to 1. I got the number right?
00:05:12
Speaker 2: 40 to 1. Still available. Multiple books.
00:05:15
Speaker 7: I bet it will be.
00:05:16
Speaker 6: All right. Shockingly, nobody is like, oh, man, that was on my board. All right, Brandon Kravitz, your number one overall pick.
00:05:27
Speaker 3: This is definitely how the Avengers felt when they descended on New York.
00:05:31
Speaker 2: This feeling right here.
00:05:32
Speaker 1: This is great.
00:05:33
Speaker 7: All right.
00:05:34
Speaker 3: Well, I am going of I'm going to go with a different strategy where my first pick is going to be maybe not the bet I believe in the most, but the one that I think is going to get sniped the most. I'm going to go with the Utah Jazz over 36 and a half wins. This is the trendiest pick on the planet right now. I think a lot of us on this podcast channel have this team circled. and had them circled at the end of last year with 50% less talent. Will Hardy having to call off the dogs at halftime because these guys were overperforming when the NBA still allowed tanking a full season of a full effort. Darren Peterson added to the mix in a diminished Western conference. They're going to be within striking distance of the playoffs, which by the way, if you want to bet that plus one 50, not a bad one either, but I like them over 36 and a half wins.
00:06:25
Speaker 2: I'll take it before anybody else can.
00:06:28
Speaker 6: Oh, wow.
00:06:29
Speaker 7: That should have been my first. Yeah, that really should have been 1-1, honestly.
00:06:36
Speaker 1: Damn it.
00:06:37
Speaker 6: I was so close. I'm trying to type and fill in the graph.
00:06:41
Speaker 1: You were not close. We're six minutes into the podcast.
00:06:43
Speaker 2: We just started.
00:06:46
Speaker 6: Almost got there.
00:06:47
Speaker 7: So close.
00:06:49
Speaker 6: I think the most common one, I don't know that that's the most common one with this group. It is a very trendy pick. So I understand why you went ahead and grabbed it, because I do think that the Utah are going to be a trendy team this year for sure. So Fonseca Pacers 40 to one. Kravis takes jazz over 37 and a half is best in market that I saw right now. OK, back to the list. Joe DeLera, you're up next. Who do you want?
00:07:15
Speaker 5: So I'm going to do something naturally, like a little bit unconventional here. Um, and by that, I mean, I'm going to take a title pick, but I'm not going to take exactly the title pick. Um, so right now we have in something that I think is a pretty good boost for this title odds. So I like the Oklahoma city thunder to get back to the title and I like them to win the title. I don't really like their odds though. I think their odds are like a little bit shorter than what I would typically want. DraftKings has a special. And if you go to DraftKings and you go, uh, to like their team specials, You go all the way to the right, first team, Oklahoma City Thunder. And you can juice it a little bit, like add an extra variable here. And it's for Shea to average 30 points per game and for them to win the title. And it bumps the odds all the way up to plus 450. And that's something that I'm highly interested in. Shea has averaged 30 points per game in each of the last four seasons. And he's kind of done it for the most part by margin. The one season he had 30.1, but he's at 31.4, 30.1, 32.7, 31.1. Um, I'm more than willing to take on that little bit of extra risk to bump this up from, uh, what's their market price right now to win the, to win the finals.
00:08:30
Speaker 7: I was like, I was like appalled. I was like, I can't do this.
00:08:32
Speaker 5: I can't, I can't get into that, but, uh, I'm bumping it from plus two 70 all the way up to plus four 50 on shade average 30 points per game this season. So I really like that. He's currently listed to average 30 points per game. He's minus 310. So I am more than willing to take this extra risk here to bump this up to plus 450. And honestly, if he doesn't average 30 points per game, I'm going to be like a little bit confused about what's going on in Oklahoma City.
00:09:01
Speaker 7: So and I probably won't like them to win the title either.
00:09:03
Speaker 5: So shade average 30 points per game. Oklahoma City Thunder to win the championship plus 450 as my title pick.
00:09:10
Speaker 6: So you want this logged as your title and not a long shot.
00:09:13
Speaker 3: Yes.
00:09:13
Speaker 7: Oh no, we have something way longer than four to one.
00:09:17
Speaker 6: This is some, this is some Brandon Anderson breaking rules bullshit right here.
00:09:23
Speaker 1: This is a sick pick.
00:09:23
Speaker 7: This is so, I love this.
00:09:25
Speaker 6: My sliding in the specials to get your title pick in.
00:09:29
Speaker 1: Yes.
00:09:29
Speaker 6: I got to respect it. We say to shop around and Joe Dallara did in fact shop around at DK. The crown is yours.
00:09:37
Speaker 7: Are the thunders still on the board now? What do you mean? Like can someone take OKC title? Then you're just taking a worse pick than me. So yeah, go for it. It'll be good for the people.
00:09:47
Speaker 6: You could still take the straight plus 270. Yeah.
00:09:49
Speaker 7: I'll allow that.
00:09:52
Speaker 1: OK.
00:09:54
Speaker 6: Damn, Joe.
00:09:55
Speaker 7: Inventive.
00:09:56
Speaker 6: I like it.
00:09:56
Speaker 7: Started off hot.
00:09:58
Speaker 6: All right, Fiddle.
00:09:58
Speaker 7: What do you got?
00:10:00
Speaker 1: Cooking? So I think like Brandon, a lot of people thought I was going to come in and say, here's going to be some CLV on a win total and just, you know, drive for show and putt for dough, but game theory here says there's like 12 win totals I'm comfortable with, so I'm not rushing to the win total board. I respect BK's jazz pick, but I'm not rushing to the win total board. The thing I thought that was going to get sniped, I'm going to put this in my awards, and it's going to be Cooper Flagg, most improved player, 80-1. And my question for this bet is, is there a chance that Cooper Flagg And what's the probability? Is it greater than 1.5% or 2% that Cooper Flagg's just already running in Defensive Player of the Year? I don't expect him to win, but going to get votes in Defensive Player of the Year? And is he averaging 24 or more points and 8 or more rebounds and 3.5 stocks between this? And we're like, he's already an outside MVP candidate, and he's a no-brainer all-star, all-star starter. So at 80-1, they say.
00:11:06
Speaker 1: You can't really let a second year player get most improved. That's kind of the trope around this award that, oh, you expect people to improve in their second year. Well, at 80 to one, like it's already happened twice since the turn of the 21st century. Gilbert Arenas did it in 2002. Monte Ellis did it. in 2006. So what's stopping Cooper flag from being able to do that and going from a rookie year where he was in the race with con canipple of who's going to win rookie of the year, some injuries, whatever to the next year of like, holy shit, this guy's a potential MVP candidate, a potential defensive of the year player candidate, a all-star starter every year for the foreseeable future. And he's the most improved player. Okay.
00:11:49
Speaker 6: I respect it. I think I liked the, the idea behind it. I now kind of want him to win MIP and Conn Knipple to also go off and then Conn Knipple leave for most of the year and then him lose again at Cooper flag. Like that's kind of what I want is like just every single time that, that I want Conn Knipple to be the Aaron Burr, the flags, Alexander Hamilton.
00:12:11
Speaker 1: Okay.
00:12:12
Speaker 4: Fiddle with an 80 to one was not on my board and I happen to be, and not even in the long shot.
00:12:18
Speaker 1: I got a 90 to one stored up. I got a 200 to one stored up. We're swinging for fences.
00:12:23
Speaker 6: Look at you.
00:12:24
Speaker 7: I'm proud of you.
00:12:25
Speaker 6: Thank you for understanding the assignment, Michael.
00:12:27
Speaker 1: The win total, I'll win. Have no fear. I'll win the win total that I choose. But let's see if I can get one of these other ones as well. All right.
00:12:34
Speaker 6: Jim Turvey, your first bet. Just review the board real quick. We got Pacers 40 to one from Fonseca. Jazz over 37 and a half from Kravitz. OKC title and Shea 30 plus from Joe. And Fiddle's flag most improved player at 80 to one. Jim, what's your first pick?
00:12:51
Speaker 7: Yeah, where did Fiddle drop the game theory bomb?
00:12:54
Speaker 4: I thought I was going to have to go with a category here, but even though I'm with you, Fiddle, that there's a lot of win totals I like, I actually am seeing the board appear and maybe seeing, being able to get some other stuff based on bets or the people.
00:13:07
Speaker 7: So I am going to go to win total. I am going to go to the one that was referenced before the show. I think, actually, no, I'm not.
00:13:14
Speaker 4: Curveball, I'm going to do Philadelphia under. I was thinking about a different one. I'm just going to lock in what I think is the safest one, 76ers under. um it's a year i like unders in general more already injuries stacking up there their front court they could be starting dominic barlow on at center on on opening night it could be a disaster there's enough talent there to drag them into the postseason picture but i don't see this team getting 50 wins i just don't think that's gonna be a priority for them so i will take the 76ers under as my win total.
00:13:41
Speaker 6: Bet i've got them at 15 and a half are you good with that yeah even better Okay, that's the 50 and a half. We'll get you on there.
00:13:49
Speaker 1: Can I give a slight objection to this? Yes. I don't disagree with the bet. If I had to choose, I would take the under. But there's just no way that I personally could put a dollar on a LeBron season under. I'm just too beholden to... Come on. We have to root for LeBron and his... in his waning season. I, if it's, well, this is the last year. If it's one more year after that, I could never sign up to ride a full season. LeBron under no way.
00:14:15
Speaker 4: There's a great, I wonder what he is. His win total over unders are the last like 10 years.
00:14:20
Speaker 7: It's bad. I would guess.
00:14:21
Speaker 1: I would guess.
00:14:21
Speaker 7: It's probably always bad.
00:14:22
Speaker 5: Yeah.
00:14:23
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:14:23
Speaker 2: It's bad.
00:14:24
Speaker 1: Cause it definitely went over last year with the Lakers.
00:14:26
Speaker 7: He did.
00:14:27
Speaker 5: Yeah.
00:14:27
Speaker 6: It went over last year, but he didn't play some of that.
00:14:30
Speaker 1: He also had a negative plus minus.
00:14:31
Speaker 6: So, uh, there's a movie called, cocktail that i like very much in the 80s with tom cruise and there's a line in it that i absolutely adore which is he's talking to a girl that and the breakup is going badly and he says of course it ended badly if it wasn't if it didn't end badly it wouldn't end i just want to point that out with lebron.
00:14:50
Speaker 1: Apropos of nothing to do with the sixers father time and mother nature are the two undefeated there.
00:14:56
Speaker 6: You go uh okay bars uh my first pick is going to be I am going to play safe and conservative here, and I'm going to take the one that I'm pretty sure Jim was going to take. I'm going to take the Rockets over 48 and a half. That's going to be mine. I think 47 and a half is the best in the market. Talked about this over and over and over again. I like it the more I've thought about it. To be quite honest with you, I was thinking through all this and then had the realization when he played the other night, like, oh, yeah, and they got Marcus Smart. That helps. That just helps. Now, maybe it's bad because that means they won't play Reed Shepard because E-Mame Doka hates that kid. But I just think there's too much. If you want to know why, you can listen to any of the podcasts that we've done on the future stuff. Rockets Over is, I just think it's a really good bet. And I just feel like this was very badly mispriced in the market. Okay. I'm back to back. So I've got to go again. And I'm going to turn. I don't want to do my long shot yet. Nope.
00:15:56
Speaker 1: You know what?
00:15:56
Speaker 6: I'm going to keep it simple because I'm going to extrapolate on this and try and bank on getting it. If I'm right, I'm really right because I'm going to take Rockets division plus 650. I think if they're within range, the idea here is pretty simple. If the Spurs regress, a regression from 60 is greater than a regression from 55. It's greater than a regression from 50. So if the regression from 60 happens, you're talking about, okay, I think it's probably more than three wins. So we're talking more about 55, and I've got the Rockets projected at 55 wins. So I'm going to go ahead and take Rockets to win the Southwest division, beating the San Antonio Spurs for it at plus 650. That's going to be mine. Any objections to my bet?
00:16:46
Speaker 1: I think that was one of the three best division bets possible off the board.
00:16:52
Speaker 7: It was my third as well, yeah.
00:16:54
Speaker 6: Okay, Jim, back to you. We're doing Snake. Back to you for pick two.
00:16:57
Speaker 4: I'm going to go back to division as well. I'm debating between two, one of which because I'm not 100% certain on numbers. So someone call me out if this is a too stale a number. Lakers division minus 130. Fiddle, you got a screen up?
00:17:12
Speaker 1: Are we good there?
00:17:13
Speaker 7: I think it's about right.
00:17:16
Speaker 1: I'll pull it up for you right now.
00:17:17
Speaker 7: Okay, I'll get the mini cap.
00:17:19
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's minus 120s out there. But yeah, you can find minus 130 as well. Okay, perfect.
00:17:24
Speaker 7: So Lakers, the rest of this division is just trash.
00:17:27
Speaker 4: Even if you aren't on Lakers Island with me, you have to be on the Suns, the Kings, the Clippers, or a team that I'm literally forgetting right now.
00:17:38
Speaker 7: The Warriors? The Warriors, who I'm all the way out on. At least Porzingis doesn't have AIDS, like you said today.
00:17:44
Speaker 2: Oh, no.
00:17:47
Speaker 4: Uh, Lakers minus one 20 division. I, I will, I'm just going to leave that there and, and throw it back to Matt.
00:17:53
Speaker 1: That was wild. Keep going.
00:17:55
Speaker 6: Just keep going. Keep going.
00:17:59
Speaker 7: Lakers minus one 20 division.
00:18:01
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:18:01
Speaker 6: Hope I hope we're saying this is okay. I genuinely hope we're saying.
00:18:04
Speaker 2: Me too, but why did he feel the need to put in the last sentence?
00:18:06
Speaker 6: Because that's like how many people I will tell you people legitimately were asking about that. Yeah. People have legitimately have legitimately been speculating that he has those conditions. which is because people are really, really awful.
00:18:20
Speaker 1: Um, he refuted it by the way, for those that haven't seen that.
00:18:23
Speaker 7: That was the point.
00:18:23
Speaker 1: Yeah. All right.
00:18:26
Speaker 6: Uh, here's the current board. Jim takes division for the Lakers at minus one 30. Um, look, it's a terrible division. I have them winning the division and I have them at 38 wins. So yeah. So that's how bad that, that division is a fiddle back to you. Where do you want to go?
00:18:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're getting a run on the division odds right now. That's that's probably the hardest market of these five to find value. I'll go with the Atlanta Hawks division plus 275 in market. They're paired up with the Hornets, who I'm personally on a win total under not going to give it out here. Magic with a new coach and endless injury history. Just ask Brandon about it. Miami Heat integrating Giannis and Bam and trying to keep those guys healthy. And the Wizards, who let's see what they can do. They might be frisky, but not division winners. The Atlanta Hawks went on this surge towards the second half of last season. And I think a lot of it was thought to be kind of fraudulent because they played weak teams in that run. And I actually think that's not true to actually what they did this summer, bringing in Lou Dort, bringing in Aaron Wiggins. I'm totally fine with the combination of bigs that they have in Okongwu and Landale. I actually think this team has a lot of ways to play, and that'll make them really match-up proof in a lot of these games. They're the only team that took two games off the Knicks all playoffs. So I actually think let's not sleep on the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta Hawks division plus 275 is going to be my choice.
00:19:59
Speaker 6: I like this one a lot. I think that this has a lot of value. I think betting on the instability of the Heat is probably a sound proposition for preseason.
00:20:07
Speaker 5: Yeah.
00:20:08
Speaker 6: It's a terrifying prospect, but I've been thinking a lot about today about like, like, look, if you're, you know, the way to make money is to scare money. Don't make money.
00:20:15
Speaker 1: Right.
00:20:16
Speaker 6: And I just think that if you're going to, if you're going to bank on, if you have any question at all about Miami, this division is being treated as if it's fate accompli. So I just think that there's a, there's an opportunity here for Atlanta with very solid coaching, more continuity, all of those types of things. So I think there's a good opportunity and the dog agrees too. So that's a, that's a win as well. All right. Let's head back. To Joe DeLera. Joe, what do you got for us now? I am going to warn you. I will allow one more DK special before I start to get itchy.
00:20:51
Speaker 7: So I am going to use DraftKings. Oh, no, it moved.
00:20:55
Speaker 3: Never mind. Not going to do that.
00:20:57
Speaker 1: All right.
00:20:58
Speaker 7: I am going to do a bet here because I have to.
00:21:04
Speaker 2: It wasn't going to be a normal one until whatever happened.
00:21:06
Speaker 1: No, it wasn't.
00:21:06
Speaker 5: It actually, it wasn't going to be, it wasn't going to be as normal.
00:21:09
Speaker 3: I'm going to do a bet here is officially the one.
00:21:16
Speaker 5: I'm debating a little bit of which, which market I wanted to, wanted to kind.
00:21:20
Speaker 7: Of nail down here.
00:21:21
Speaker 5: But I'm going to actually go to, I'm going to go to division as well. And I'm going to go heads up a little bit with fiddle here. I'm going to grab the Orlando magic to win the division.
00:21:32
Speaker 7: Um, I, I kind of like them.
00:21:33
Speaker 5: I think they're a little bit underpriced right now. Um, they're plus two 75. Uh, so kind of like right in line with the Hawks. Um, I, it's a little bit more of, I think the lineups were actually pretty good when they had their main.
00:21:45
Speaker 7: Five players play together. It just, they just never played together.
00:21:49
Speaker 5: So it's more of an issue in terms of the health, but I think from a continuity perspective, I liked the fact they got a new coach. So I'm not really worried about that. I think that's a good thing. But I think the personnel, like the players, are going to be comfortable playing with each other.
00:22:01
Speaker 7: They know each other. They've now been practicing with each other.
00:22:03
Speaker 5: And I think that Desmond Bain had some growing pains with them last year. I think that'll be ironed out a little bit. But the biggest thing is really this is a bet on health and the fact that they just weren't really involved in the postseason at all. They're a team that's going to be healthy. They are a team that, presumably anyway, they're a team that has basically gotten the entire summer off and extended summer Um, and I think they, they know that they had a missed opportunity there.
00:22:30
Speaker 7: And I think when you look at Franz and Paolo, especially.
00:22:33
Speaker 5: They they're a duo where it doesn't seem like, you know, it seems like the vibes are decent between them, but I think if something doesn't happen this year, one of them's probably gone. I don't know how much longer you can really kind of do this. So I think that they have, um, definitely a path and they definitely have a lot of talent. So I think a plus two 75, considering I'm a little.
00:22:51
Speaker 7: Bit lower on Miami.
00:22:52
Speaker 5: This season as well I think this is a pretty good opportunity for Orlando a team that we all really did like last year and you know they just kind of never managed to get up to expectations because.
00:23:02
Speaker 6: Of injuries I don't mind this at all either you know for the same reasons I like the Hawks pick I don't have a strong feeling on Hawks versus Magic I think with the Hawks it's like look at the last four months of the season with the Magic it's hey there's a coach that might actually get them to put the little ball inside the little net thingy that would be nice one time I'm watching the magic and preseason. I like a lot of their scheme and structure. Wendell Carr jr. Is spacing a lot more to the corner and then crashing on the inside. They're using Franz Wagner as primary initiator, maybe getting Palo Banquero off the ball a little bit and using him as tip of the spear. That might work a little bit better for the offensive side. You know, we'll see what the defensive side of this looks like and how that kind of works out. They're having the Silva shoot in volume on threes. So it does look like they're adjusting some of the personnel stuff. I think there's, I think these are, these are two good coaches. Um, I think Swinney's good.
00:23:50
Speaker 1: I don't know. He's good.
00:23:51
Speaker 6: I know that Snyder is, um, I think it's worth the upside pick on it. So I don't necessarily mind it. So plus two 75 for fiddle going head to head with, uh, or going ahead with Dallara Dallara plus two 75 on the magic going head to head with fiddle Hawks plus two 75 BK back to you, buddy. What do you want for your second pick?
00:24:09
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would assume that you guys would think I'm upset about the Magic Division odds getting sniped from me.
00:24:16
Speaker 2: I had to do it.
00:24:18
Speaker 7: I knew you were up.
00:24:20
Speaker 3: Well, I'm going to do the same thing to the guy that's in front of me or behind me here. And I guess we'll just mop up the remainder of the division. I like the Hornets 9-1 to win the Southeast.
00:24:33
Speaker 1: Woo! This is awesome.
00:24:38
Speaker 3: We got a Southeast run going on here.
00:24:40
Speaker 5: Can we get a bet on if any of these teams will be outside of the play-in tournament, like in the top six?
00:24:46
Speaker 6: Brian Fonseca has the ability to do the funniest thing possible next. But BK, explain the Hornets real quick.
00:24:54
Speaker 1: So.
00:24:56
Speaker 3: I, like the rest of you, find value on this division because I'm lower on the Miami Heat than what the general public would be. I think all of these teams, Hornets included, with the Hawks, the Magic, and the Miami Heat, are going to be bunched up. So give me the longest realistic odds to win it. I genuinely don't understand why the Magic are 275 and the Hornets are 9-1. It should be much tighter than that. I don't mind the magic bet from the prediction perspective. I hate the price. I like the moves that the Hornets made. Nas Reed, Grayson Allen. I think they matured a lot as a group last year. They're freed from the shackles of having to play lamello ball basketball. This is a serious team with elite coaching. They got hot late last year. If they're able to start the season that way, they're going to have a nice little runway here to at least be in this race at the end with a nice nine to one ticket.
00:25:53
Speaker 4: I mean, I think you're going to be freed from the shackles of lamello basketball and scoring, like hitting like 10 less threes a game. I think he drove the entire offense and I get the like serious, unserious argument, but like they were pretty serious when they were like a plus 14 net rating team in the second half.
00:26:09
Speaker 7: And I think he was a large part of that.
00:26:11
Speaker 4: I also think that there's a chance that like the schemes that Charles Lee, I think Charles, he's a great coach, but I think those schemes maybe get learned a little bit. So I'm lower on the Hornets. Um, But again, I never mind these teams that you're not high on. I actually don't mind taking the long shot. So I agree that there's value somewhere in that division, and it would be really funny if Brian finished this out here.
00:26:33
Speaker 6: Yeah, just to review this, we have gone five straight division bets. So if you're... I hope nobody is like stepped away and was like, Oh, I can't wait until they get to the division bets later. Uh, rockets plus six 50 was mine. Lakers minus one 30 was turkeys fiddle went with Hawks plus two 75. Delara went magic. And then Kravitz went Hornets plus 900 on the back of extreme Lamello ball. Hey, which I honestly, I kind of respect. Um, all right, Brian, you have the ability to do something extremely funny here.
00:27:03
Speaker 2: The funniest thing possible. Um, would be for me to just take the heat division right now.
00:27:09
Speaker 1: Just a lengthy season long heat money line play from Brian.
00:27:15
Speaker 7: It's even funnier with it being Brian for sure.
00:27:18
Speaker 2: Unsurprisingly, I'm not as low on them as you guys are. Unsurprisingly.
00:27:24
Speaker 8: Now I shouldn't take a division bet now because I don't have to, since all of you.
00:27:28
Speaker 2: Pretty much already did. I'm going to do that anyway. I'm going to go to the.
00:27:34
Speaker 1: That was the funniest thing that I thought.
00:27:36
Speaker 7: Still doing the funniest thing possible.
00:27:39
Speaker 5: Brian being the stuff at the top of this draft is the best thing that's ever happened.
00:27:42
Speaker 7: We're on a roll.
00:27:43
Speaker 2: We got to keep it going for the content. So I'm going to the Atlantic division. I'm going to the Atlantic division. I'm going to the Atlantic division. I'm taking the Celtics plus 215. It's the right choice.
00:27:54
Speaker 7: This was second on mine.
00:27:55
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:27:55
Speaker 7: Celtics plus 210.
00:27:59
Speaker 2: There's a 2-15, 2-10. There's a 2-15 out there, though. Yeah.
00:28:06
Speaker 8: I don't love them as a playoff team, I don't think, but we'll see. I do like them as a regular season team, though. I'm expecting the Sixers to be kind of wonky again all year because they're always fucking like this. I think people are getting a little bit too high on the Raptors, although I feel better about them in the playoffs, if Kawhi is healthy, of course, than in the regular season.
00:28:26
Speaker 2: And then with the Knicks.
00:28:29
Speaker 8: I think they're going to walk into 50 wins. I don't know how much more than that they're going to get. I think it might just be capped at like 51 or something along those lines. I actually think Boston's regular season upside is really good. I don't know if they'll win a playoff series, but I think the regular season upside is really good.
00:28:46
Speaker 6: I like, I like, I like this bet. I'm going to, I'm like, I'm going to have this in Raptors. I'm basically, you know, fading Nick Sixers, um, and that's obviously, but I, I like this bet at plus two 50. I still think there's value.
00:28:57
Speaker 8: So instead of the heat, me of all people take the Celtics at the end.
00:29:01
Speaker 6: That's pretty great too, is that you get to every time that you're pissed off at the Celtics one again with their bullshit Missoula bowl, you get to be like, but I'm closer to my division back.
00:29:10
Speaker 2: Look, I like Jalen Brown. I kind of think their team makes a lot of sense without him there though. Unfortunately.
00:29:14
Speaker 6: All right. You get back to back. This is a snake. So you get to go, but go again, Brian, what do you want?
00:29:18
Speaker 2: Warriors under 38 and a half wins.
00:29:21
Speaker 1: Okay.
00:29:21
Speaker 2: I was asleep.
00:29:22
Speaker 8: I was, I was thinking this wouldn't make it back to me maybe, but this made it back and I have to take them now.
00:29:28
Speaker 2: I just don't see it with this team.
00:29:30
Speaker 8: They're a Steph Curry injury away from being the Eric Pascal, D'Angelo Russell Warriors.
00:29:35
Speaker 2: Like, I don't think this team is that good. I think Yaxo Candy.
00:29:40
Speaker 7: Good.
00:29:40
Speaker 8: I think Pojemski is probably not as good as people, the most optimistic Pojemski people think he's going to be. But the contract that he signed, I thought was fine or can be fine. Draymond is basically like, if Steph is there, cool. If he's not, I don't know if he's going to give a shit. We've seen that already. And then Chris Asperzingas, this is not ready.
00:30:01
Speaker 1: He's not healthy.
00:30:02
Speaker 2: We don't know what to expect there. This was originally at like 40 earlier in the offseason. It's been dropping.
00:30:08
Speaker 8: I still don't mind it at 38.5. I think this should really be in like the mid-30s, and I could see them being under even that.
00:30:16
Speaker 6: All right, Warriors under 38.5 for Fonseca. We have four win totals off the board. We have five division bets off the board. We have two title bets off the board. including whatever the fuck it was, Joe, Joe, the, and flag most improved player won award off the board. Joe, we are, uh, sorry, BK. We're back to you.
00:30:36
Speaker 1: BK.
00:30:37
Speaker 6: What do you want for your third pick?
00:30:39
Speaker 3: I'm just going to bag a win here. I'll take an easy dub in around three. Victor, when Benyama MVP plus two 10, please.
00:30:49
Speaker 2: And thank you.
00:30:51
Speaker 3: If he plays 65 games, I just don't see a world where the Spurs aren't elite and And the case for who made the biggest impact in winning isn't Victor Wimbenyama. I mean, what he's able to do defensively to impact games, the improvements on offense, the guy is still super young. Last year, they were way ahead of schedule. This is supposed to be the year where he becomes the guy.
00:31:18
Speaker 5: And.
00:31:20
Speaker 3: I mean, this is preordained stuff, even more so than LeBron. LeBron's first MVP was in the 0809 season. I went back and looked at what the preseason odds were. He was five to one. He was fourth on the board in the we've decided as an NBA collective that this is now LeBron's league. Well, we have done the same thing with Victor Wimbinyama here in the year of 2026, and he's plus 210 because he's just that good.
00:31:47
Speaker 2: So yeah, I don't add that one to the sheet.
00:31:49
Speaker 6: Yeah, man. I mean, look, I was talking about this with Turby today on One Bet for Every Team. Go listen to that podcast. Jim killed that podcast today. Go listen to that. I tried so hard to find a way to fade the Spurs, and I got to the end of it and was just like, shit, can't. They're just going to win 62 games, and that's going to happen. The women's going to win MVP. I don't mind this at all. This is basically just like the season. You're getting plus 210 on the season goes as expected. That's a really good price. Like that's just a really good price.
00:32:22
Speaker 4: Last year, they like went out of their way to get him that DPOI too. And I was very surprised by that. And I can't tell if that was like to get him his first award or if they're like, or if that's a him thing.
00:32:34
Speaker 7: And he's like, I want to thing. Yeah. And you think they'll like, they'll bow to that again.
00:32:39
Speaker 1: You think?
00:32:39
Speaker 7: Yep.
00:32:40
Speaker 6: I think, I think that the Spurs have never encountered a player with the ambitions that he has. Yeah. Tim Duncan was elite and set an extremely high bar of success. And so did David Robinson. But they also weren't like, I want to be the biggest superstar in the world. And that's what women Yama wants. So, yeah, it's a little different. All right. Delera third pick.
00:33:05
Speaker 5: All right.
00:33:06
Speaker 7: So I'm going to do I am going to do an award.
00:33:09
Speaker 5: And the award that I'm going to do is an All-NBA award. And there's been two bets that I've been waffling with, one of which I think I gave out on one of the shows. So I'm not going to do that one. I'm going to do a different one. And it's going to be to be named to any All-NBA team. So we can go a little bit further down. And I think that this is a good, this would be like a good stepstool spot for Fiddle's bet.
00:33:32
Speaker 7: But Cooper Flag to be named to any All-NBA team at four to one.
00:33:36
Speaker 1: I like this.
00:33:37
Speaker 7: It's on DraftKings.
00:33:38
Speaker 5: I think that he is a player, again, that is going to be in a situation where I think he's going to play enough games. I think that the team might be bad. But I also think that he's going to get enough national attention and national looks where I think the stats are going to improve. He was excellent as a rookie. And I think he is uber talented. So I think with Dallas and just the structure of it, I think that Kyrie should help him to a degree. We'll see if that necessarily works out that way. So if Kyrie does help and the team's better, I think that that kind of boosts that situation. If Kyrie, if the match doesn't really work and the Mavericks aren't necessarily good, then he's going to get to put up a ton of empty stats, I think. And those numbers are going to pop. So I think a four to one, it's a way to bet on Cooper flag. And I think there's a number of guys that are listed here in like the all NBA realm at minus money. that like, I don't know if they're going to play enough games. I mean, you have like Halliburton's coming back from injury, Kevin Durant, you know, it just is getting older. Steph Curry continues in this games. Kawhi Leonard has rarely been eligible lately. You don't know what's going on with Jason Tatum. And we've seen from the guys at the top, whether it's Giannis or Luca in particular, like they seem to not necessarily always play enough games either. So I think there's plenty of opportunity for him to be a guy that steps up into that like upper echelon of the NBA and is anointed into an all NBA team, whether it's one, two or three.
00:35:08
Speaker 7: So at four to one, I like it for Cooper flag.
00:35:11
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:35:12
Speaker 6: I mean, look, I, I argued, I asked this question on, on locked on NBA and I meant it. I have Kevin Durant entering the season as the 15th best player in the league. And I said, at the end of the season, do you think that we will consider Cooper flag to be better than Kevin Durant at age 38? that's how high I think you have to be on Cooper flag.
00:35:30
Speaker 7: That's how good that gets.
00:35:32
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:35:32
Speaker 5: And I, and I think that with the positionless voting for all NBA, I think that actually helps him a lot too. Uh, because some of the players that are like priced around him are Paolo, Joel Embiid, Evan Mobley, Chet Holmgren, Jamal Murray. Um, like those are the guys right around him. And I think that you can make a case that he has a season and just catapults a lot of those guys where you know, MB is never going to play enough games. So, I mean, plus four 75 to me is nuts, but you know, I think that you could make the argument that flags better than Paolo right now. He's better than Mobley right now. I don't think the defense is as good as what chat does, but on the offensive side of the ball, he's certainly better than chat. So I think that that's four to one is a great price for flag to make an all NBA team.
00:36:14
Speaker 7: Okay.
00:36:16
Speaker 1: Can I ask a semantics question is all NBA. Do you guys consider that an award? I love the bet. I'm not, I'm not having a gripe, but I.
00:36:23
Speaker 6: And Brian already asked if we could use it and I told him yes. So it does qualify.
00:36:27
Speaker 1: No, I love it. I think it's great.
00:36:29
Speaker 6: Um, it is an accolade. We should have named it accolade, but I'm told that I use two fancy words.
00:36:35
Speaker 3: Uh, all right.
00:36:36
Speaker 6: Holiday player of the month or something. I, we would definitely bet on player of the month if we could fiddle.
00:36:43
Speaker 2: Oh my God.
00:36:43
Speaker 1: Love it. Your market, Carl Anthony towns. Um, Yeah. Okay. I'm going to go with a win total here. And there's a lot of teams that we've talked about that I feel like I could give good win totals for, but I think I have the make can make the most interesting case, uh, for OKC over 61 and a half wins this year. And I think that's like the, the one with the most interesting handicap to explain. Um, there seems to be a deflating of the top wind totals and an inflating of the bottom wind totals given tanking and NBA lottery reform changes, the 3-2-1 rules. And so there's this theory around the NBA circles that, okay, well, the best teams are not going to get as easy of wins against some of these bottom feeders. 17.5 point spreads are going to become 12.5, 11.5 point spreads, and you're going to get more dogs that win outright. I mean, a seven and a half point dog will still be equally as likely year over year versus seven and a half point dog. But, you know, we're not going to see as many 20 point spreads this year. I actually think it's still an 82 game season. Here's the handicap. It's still an 82 game season and you're going to have to take nights off somewhere. And these teams are still going to want to prioritize wins to stay above the relegation zone. And so I think if you're looking at a schedule spot where say you have OKC and then the Lakers in two more nights, I think OKC is going to get probably the most amount of best player on opposing teams sitting that night still. And a lot of them are just going to say, this is the one where we're not going to try and go overboard for the win. Let's focus on the Lakers tomorrow night or two nights from now. So I actually think that OKC is pseudo going to face a much easier schedule than expected. And we're going to get like the pseudo tank teams playing against OKC in the fact that they're not going to see as many star players playing against them. So I'm going to go with OKC over 61 and a half. I think they've gotten better year over year. Hopefully stay healthy. A lot of that is J-Dub. But the late addition of McCain obviously was fruitful in the playoffs. Morrow looks incredible. He looks like a baby between Hartenstein and Wemby. And so we'll see what he can do. And so I'm going to go with the OKC over 61 and a half. Easier schedule than expected.
00:39:03
Speaker 6: That's an obnoxiously good cap, Fiddle.
00:39:05
Speaker 7: It's so sharp.
00:39:07
Speaker 6: That was so sharp. I had not thought about that, that they're literally going to be like, we can rest them on this night because we're going to lose it anyway.
00:39:17
Speaker 4: Yeah.
00:39:18
Speaker 6: We can't risk losing against such a low, against such a low.
00:39:21
Speaker 1: We have Portland tomorrow night. Let's go for the Portland one and skip the OKC one.
00:39:26
Speaker 6: Fuck you, Fiddle. That's annoying.
00:39:27
Speaker 1: Good, right? I'm going to go add more to it.
00:39:30
Speaker 2: Get the knives out.
00:39:30
Speaker 6: I like it. I like it. Jim Turvey, your next bet.
00:39:35
Speaker 4: It has me shaking with my Spurs understock that I have, because that is a really good point.
00:39:39
Speaker 7: All right, I'm going to go to award. The smart thing would definitely be to do title, but I just kind of hate all.
00:39:44
Speaker 4: Of these teams for title. So I'm going to make you guys make me make a pick. So I'll do Will Hardy coach of the year, 12 to one. Talked about this on the pod with Matt a little bit. So I'll do a briefer thing.
00:39:56
Speaker 7: Favorites typically aren't great in coach of the year. It's kind of a weirdly priced market where you kind of want to sneak up on people. It's like one of those ones.
00:40:02
Speaker 4: But we have seen it two years ago. Dagnall came into the season as the favorite. He was kind of similar timelines where he kind of paid his dues. Everyone knew he was a very smart coach with a team about to pop. Shout out BK. I was looking at Jazz 45 plus for one of my long shots as well. All over the Jazz this year. I do really like them. This is my way to play them at a decent number. You can get 12 to 1 out there for Will Hardy.
00:40:25
Speaker 1: Coach of the year.
00:40:26
Speaker 4: He's kind of like the hipster, buzzy favorite. I don't think it will take much for them to be in the conversation for him to win this award.
00:40:32
Speaker 1: Yep. Good pick.
00:40:33
Speaker 6: I have no argument against this. This is a totally good pick. I think it's in particular, this doesn't require you to actually believe in the jazz. It just asks you, it requires you to believe if the jazz are better than expected, they're much better than expected. If they're much better than expected, will Hardy is likely to win coach of the year. And like that logic absolutely checks out. So, uh, I like that pick. Uh, I'm going to go chalk for my next one. I'm going cam boozer rookie of the year. Um, I thought about Ace Bailey. I really like the Ace Bailey six man of the year bet I've been throwing around. I really like that. I'm probably also going to bet Ace Bailey most improved player because I'm worried that what's going to happen is that he's actually going to take Peterson's spot or that he's going to start two and they're going to start Jackson at the five. There's all these ways in which that happens. So I will be on Ace Bailey. Back to Cam Boozer. Blood for the blood God. Cam Boozer is un-fucking-believable. He is already one of my five favorite players in the league, and he hasn't played a single minute. He is unreal. There is so much stuff that he does. And he is the type of player that busts all of our conventional, oh, this is the profile. You have to do blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Everybody that watches him is going to be like, oh, that's the best guy. That's the best guy by far. He looks so goddamn polished already. He is leaps and bounds above the polish of the other guys. And I've like, I watched Caleb Wilson and Darren Peterson in person. And I've watched A.J. DeBonta, and I've watched all these other guys. Yaxha Lindenborg is going to be great, but those guys at that draft range usually don't win. Cam Boozer is unreal right away. I do think that this Memphis Grizzlies team is set up to succeed. He is the type of big that Asala likes. Cam Boozer, plus 300, rookie of the year.
00:42:17
Speaker 7: Let's go.
00:42:19
Speaker 6: I will follow that up with my long shot, which is going to be, I am going to go with, Celtics Sixers Eastern Conference Finals 14-1.
00:42:31
Speaker 3: Wow.
00:42:36
Speaker 6: Joe is booing because I had to find a way to fade the Knicks in this podcast as I will be doing almost every single episode of the season. But yeah, look, I think Boston is going to win 55-ish games. I think that the Sixers are not going to win that many games. But I do think they're going to be a better team in the playoffs than they are I think there's a very good chance they're going to be able to manage Joel Embiid, who is lighter. I think the Sixers are going to struggle in the regular season. I'm on their win total under. They are the exact type of team that by the playoffs, it's like, oh, it took us a while, but we figured out who we are. We know how to do, we know how to build around each other. We know how to play together. Yes, there are injury concerns. I have injury concerns with everybody. The Thunder had injury concerns last year and it probably cost them another title. the Sixers still have an incredible collection of talent. Nick nurse is a championship level coach. They have the depth. They have the site. Like I know the center position is Jim's talked about this. I'm big on a Dem Bono. So like, I'm not as terrified of the center stuff as some other people are. And they've got some maneuverability in season to be able to go make a move. They have to, they can fiddle with Anthony Simons is contracted. They need to, sorry to mention fiddle, but like, I, I like this a lot. Celtic Sixers, 14 to one Eastern conference finals. I don't want the calves. I don't want a Southeast division team. I do not want the Knicks. I'm actively against the Knicks. Celtics, Sixers, Eastern Conference Finals, 14-1 is my long shot. Jim Turvey, back to you.
00:44:02
Speaker 7: All right. I don't think I can avoid it any longer.
00:44:03
Speaker 4: I'm going to do title and I'll partially explain why I was so rude to Fonseca with his first pick of the draft, because I did a little look this off season. And cause we think of, I think we think of this new era where there's all these non-repeat winners as like a little bit more chaotic.
00:44:19
Speaker 7: Like, like we see teams coming out of nowhere to win titles.
00:44:22
Speaker 4: The sneaky thing is that it actually hasn't really happened. It's kind of the noise of the regular season that makes it seem that way. If you look, go back and look at preseason odds for the title winners and since kind of the dynasty's era, you know, 2018. So 2019, Raptors had the fifth longest, Lakers second, Bucks second, Warriors third, Nuggets ninth is the longest, but then Celtics first, Thunder second, and Knicks even were fourth last year.
00:44:45
Speaker 7: So we only have one title team, even in this supposedly spread out era, outside of the top five in terms of odds at the start of the season.
00:44:54
Speaker 4: Now, maybe we're starting, we are starting to, you know, we got a fourth last season, we got ninth four years ago. Maybe there's some trend here. but basketball is still a sport where we kind of know at the start of season who the best teams are.
00:45:05
Speaker 7: I don't really love any of these.
00:45:07
Speaker 4: Joe, Joe got kind of the good way to play a thunder. I love, I absolutely love that play that Joe had. I'll go the other side of it. I guess I'm low on the Spurs in general, but I do think that I want to be on one of these short numbers. And I do think that they match up really well with the thunder, like that matchup. If they are healthy, I do think that the Spurs will win that series. So I think, Listen, I don't love the number of Spurs plus 270, but we really haven't actually transcended into an era where long shots are winning titles all the time. I had one like mid tier long shot that I liked even less than this. And I couldn't talk myself into Nick's repeat at nine to one seems short sixers. I get the Sixers' interest, but I just can't see Embiid staying healthy. And I love a dumb boner too, Matt, but I don't see them winning a title with a dumb boner. So I'm kind of just cornered into taking the Spurs at a number I don't really like, but that's how I got there, basically.
00:45:59
Speaker 6: What's your number on that one?
00:46:01
Speaker 7: 270.
00:46:03
Speaker 6: You're so sad.
00:46:04
Speaker 7: I'm so sad.
00:46:06
Speaker 6: I mean, I would try and talk you out of this if we had more time just because guys.
00:46:10
Speaker 7: I will say the other team. No, I won't say the other team. Some might want them, but there's a team in the 20s.
00:46:16
Speaker 6: Nobody's made it back-to-back finals. They haven't even just won the title. Nobody's made it back-to-back finals.
00:46:21
Speaker 7: No, I know. I don't like it. Joe's, I will say this. Joe's boost, I do like that.
00:46:27
Speaker 6: You just want to copy Joe's pick.
00:46:29
Speaker 7: Can I copy Joe's pick? Is that how drafting works? Jim's like, how did you not incept this one into my brain? All right.
00:46:39
Speaker 6: Biddle, you have long shot and title left. What do you want to go to?
00:46:43
Speaker 1: I'm going to do long shot first. And I'm debating between the joke one that I had was Moussa Diabate, most rebounds, 200 to one for Fonseca.
00:46:56
Speaker 8: I would not take that. He has too many games where he has like just eight rebounds. I mean, yeah, like that's the reason.
00:47:02
Speaker 1: The one I'm actually going to go with is Cleveland Cavaliers top seed, number one seed in the East.
00:47:16
Speaker 7: No way.
00:47:18
Speaker 1: No way.
00:47:18
Speaker 7: This was my literal number one pick for long shot. I was like, oh, there's 8 trillion long shots in the world. And this was what I wanted for the long shot. You have to be kidding me. I'll show you the sheet right now. Matt knows I drafted it.
00:47:28
Speaker 1: The win totals draft. And you gave me first pick, Matt. And I started out going Atlanta Hawks over. And Jim's like, what the hell? The same shit.
00:47:36
Speaker 7: How is this possible?
00:47:37
Speaker 2: I'm glad it's not available.
00:47:39
Speaker 3: It's about time somebody got sniped. That took too long.
00:47:43
Speaker 7: What's your number, Fiddle?
00:47:44
Speaker 6: I can look it up from the doc that Jim gave out earlier today, but what's your number on it?
00:47:49
Speaker 1: So I see plus 800 right now.
00:47:52
Speaker 7: This is 900.
00:47:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a plus 900 as well. He knows. There's even a 10-to-1 at our beloved DraftKings, so I'll take the 10-to-1 conference top seed for the Cleveland Cavaliers. And the handicap for this is.
00:48:09
Speaker 1: The depth between bigs and guards, like having two elite creators on ball and having two elite rim protectors, the fact that you just have some wiggle room of potential injury, whereas the teams in front of them are Sixers with some injury risk, the Knicks with some depth risk without losing Mitchell Robinson. And now it's like, who are they going to turn to with the bigs? And are they going to lose the possession battle more often? The Celtics obviously have their own injury risk. The Pistons not coming into the year with the best juju. And, you know, how much of that motivation ball can they keep up? Analytically speaking, the Cavaliers will be number one. It's just a matter of if they actually do it. So I think they have the depth and the pieces. And so I'll take Cavaliers number one seed coming in immediately with something to prove, given the way last season ended. that they're still in contention.
00:49:04
Speaker 6: I don't I said, I think I failed Jim on this on this bet earlier. So I can't I can't endorse it because I'm I'm anti. I'm anti hardened. I'm just kind of like tired of the whole like, well, Evan Mobley make a leap and uh, I like his own.
00:49:20
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:49:20
Speaker 6: The addition of weight of Watson was good. It's good value. It's good value because there's so much, there's so much steam on the Eastern, on the Atlantic division, just like whether it's, Oh, Nick's bing bong Nixon five or like, Oh, I'm going to, you know, LeBron sixers. Ooh, or the contrarian plays on Boston and Toronto. There's so much in the Atlantic, so I do kind of like this.
00:49:45
Speaker 2: Boston's never a contrarian play.
00:49:47
Speaker 6: Do what, Brian?
00:49:48
Speaker 2: Boston's never a contrarian play.
00:49:52
Speaker 3: All right.
00:49:53
Speaker 6: Fiddle locks that in. Joe, we're back to you.
00:49:56
Speaker 5: I'm going to grab my win total because I'm going to play with fire even after watching Jim get sniped on a long shot. I just have to live this way. I'm going to grab the Blazers under 41 and a half wins. I just am not like super convinced with this team. Jim and I like incepted each other, I think, or maybe Jim incepted me. I also bet them to be the five seed or the fifth, the finished fifth in the division at plus three 30, a little bit earlier today, log that in the app. That's now down to like plus two 30 or so. I just am not, I just don't really think that this team is, as good as this number kind of indicates. I think they have a lot of pieces coming in and I don't really know how they're going to fit. You have a new coach who's on like one of the weirdest coaching contracts you could possibly have.
00:50:45
Speaker 2: I just, I don't know.
00:50:46
Speaker 7: I don't like this team.
00:50:47
Speaker 5: I think that especially some of the things that Fiddle was talking about before in terms of bringing some of the, some of like the numbers together, bring like the wind totals kind of coming together and getting a little bit tighter, I think doesn't sit well for a Portland Trailblazers team that When I'm shooting a ton of free throws last season, and I think that Denny had a great season, but now you're introducing Damian Lillard off an injury, Ja Morant off of whatever. You're bringing in a lot of different scenarios to this Blazers team. I think under 41 and a half wins, I'm basically saying this is not a 500 team. And I know the Western conference isn't as good as it's been previously, but I think that overall across the league, we're going to see teams again, like trying in these games and Portland, I think did a really good job of trying last year. And I think that that's part of why they're a little bit overvalued in my opinion.
00:51:41
Speaker 1: Okay.
00:51:42
Speaker 6: I agree. I, the more I've watched the blazers, the more I'm kind of just like, it's pretty gross. I just think overall the wing depth isn't good. Clinging. I really like Donovan Klingin as a player, but there's offensive questions with him. Jaw looks terrible. There's all these kind of issues that are flowing along with it. All right, BK, back to you. Fourth pick, what do you like?
00:52:06
Speaker 3: Okay, I think now is the time to go. I don't think anyone's going to take my long shot, so I'll save that for last.
00:52:13
Speaker 1: I've got to take a title winner. I'm with Jim.
00:52:17
Speaker 3: I kind of just hate this market this year, but we've got to take somebody. I'll go with the Philadelphia 76ers, 10-1. They're the only team in the league with, when everyone is peaking, they're the only team in the league with four all-NBA-level players. And I get that this is the least... hipster play on in the universe. But if the 76ers pull it all together, they're the biggest threat to the New York Knicks. They're better than the Celtics, especially come playoff time. If that, if they gel, it's going to look really good. It'll be scary.
00:52:50
Speaker 1: Come playoff time.
00:52:51
Speaker 3: I don't really worry about LeBron chemistry. He knows where he is at this stage in his career. And I love the idea of point LeBron and, And then two energizer bunnies running around that keep the team at a decent seed in the regular season. I'm not worried about who misses time. There's all this talk about injury risk. They've insulated themselves. If Embiid misses, are we going to hate this team night tonight?
00:53:20
Speaker 7: No.
00:53:21
Speaker 3: If Jalen Brown misses, will we hate this team night tonight? Probably not. They'll be priced better. We'll probably bet them in those situations. I just think if the gels come playoff time, this team's going to be scary.
00:53:32
Speaker 7: Good.
00:53:32
Speaker 1: So, I'll take it.
00:53:34
Speaker 6: Hard to hate it. I mean, it's hard to hate it. It's a lot of talent. It's a lot of talent.
00:53:37
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:53:38
Speaker 6: I can understand it.
00:53:40
Speaker 1: I kind of hate it, but it's fine.
00:53:42
Speaker 6: For all NBA players. That's a strong word for BJ Edgecombe. Brian Paseka, you get back-to-back picks to wrap up your card. Who do you want for your fourth pick?
00:53:51
Speaker 2: I have to do award and long shot, right?
00:53:53
Speaker 1: Yes.
00:53:54
Speaker 3: All right. Award.
00:53:55
Speaker 1: I'm going to go chalk-ish.
00:53:57
Speaker 8: Luka MVP plus 600. I don't know how I feel about this Lakers team yet. But I don't think the three seed is out of reach at all in the Western Conference. I think they're in that fight for third place with Minnesota, Houston, whoever else after OKC and San Antonio. And people have been trying to give Luka Doncic MVP for most of this decade. He enters as a preseason favorite basically all the time. I think this year is the first year where he's not even in the top three heading into the season. in a lot of different places. But if this works out and if he's mostly healthy, if he's mostly healthy, they're going to win 50 games because Luka Doncic wins 50 games. Like he walks into 50 games when he plays enough games. So they're going to be in a conversation. You get the Lakers bump and the way that they're going to be able to play now, his numbers are going to be stupid. And maybe the voters have Shea fatigue, Jokic fatigue.
00:54:57
Speaker 1: I don't know.
00:54:58
Speaker 2: That could be part of it.
00:54:59
Speaker 8: But if this I'm not taking like an over on their win total, like I don't know what to do with that yet. But to me, it's like if this works out, Luca will be an MVP conversations. And maybe this is the year that he finally, finally, finally gets one because he's literally been a favorite to win this award every year.
00:55:17
Speaker 2: It's it's crazy.
00:55:19
Speaker 6: I think I bet him like five times and never, never cashed it. So I'm not betting it this year. So he'll cash it. That's sounds about right. From that perspective. I mean, you're right. Look, if the Lakers are good, if the Lakers went 50 plus, there will, I think one important thing to think about Luca, he's one of the few players that doesn't have to win more than women.
00:55:41
Speaker 5: Yama.
00:55:42
Speaker 2: Yes.
00:55:42
Speaker 6: Luca wins 50 plus. Then people will be like, Hmm.
00:55:49
Speaker 1: Okay. Sure.
00:55:49
Speaker 6: But Luca versus like, if you'll get to win 50 plus, it'll be like.
00:55:53
Speaker 2: Eh, and he'll be averaging 33, eight and nine or whatever it is.
00:55:56
Speaker 5: Yeah.
00:55:57
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:55:57
Speaker 6: Yeah, absolutely ridiculous.
00:56:00
Speaker 7: Okay.
00:56:00
Speaker 6: So you get to wrap up your card with your long shot. Fonseca, what do you want?
00:56:03
Speaker 8: There's like eight bets that I want here. I'll go on brand. This person is one of the favorites to win most improved player. I actually take them to make all NBA. Brandon Miller plus 2,500.
00:56:17
Speaker 1: Wow.
00:56:18
Speaker 8: Just in case, just in case they're really right about this lamello ball trade. I don't know what, like, I'm not where I'm at. I'm not where I was with the Hornets last year. I'm actually like kind of skittish on like, I don't know what's going to happen.
00:56:32
Speaker 2: Don't love that.
00:56:33
Speaker 8: There are already injuries heading into the season, but I was even saying before last year, Brandon Miller is the best player on this team. When they had LaMelo ball was saying that I think that's going to be the case long-term if he's healthy, that's a big if there. And I think in LaMelo ball being traded, people forget how much they had to manage his minutes.
00:56:53
Speaker 2: It was 28 minutes a game. He was very good as a playmaker. He was still chaotic.
00:56:59
Speaker 8: I think Charles Lee is going to get to coach the way that he wants to now have more structure. And I think maybe this is one step back to make two steps forward. But what if they're just still pretty good right now? Brandon Miller, I think, can be like a star. I think he's going to be in first time all star conversations if he's healthy. So why not take a stab at him to make all NBA?
00:57:24
Speaker 6: I'm just glad that you had that despite not being as high on them, you have still somehow managed to get yourself on some tiny corner of Hornets Island.
00:57:31
Speaker 2: That's just pretty, pretty good.
00:57:33
Speaker 7: You checking that every day.
00:57:35
Speaker 2: I didn't, I didn't make my, uh, bam depoy donation, uh, as part of the strap. So you should be thankful for that.
00:57:43
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:57:43
Speaker 6: I mean, yeah, yeah, that's that. That one might need some talk about at some point, uh, Fonseca's final card warriors under 38 and a half Luca MVP six to one, uh, Brandon Miller, All-NBA, 25-1. Pacers, 40-1 to win the title. And Celtics Division, plus 215. Kravitz, you've got a long shot pick. What do you want?
00:58:02
Speaker 3: I'm going to go with, if we're going last pick, let's go on brand. I've got to add a magic player to my card here. Let's go Franz Wagner, All-Defensive, NBA, first team, 100-1. Whoa. DeLair brought this up earlier. No Euro basketball for Franz Wagner in the summer. So he has put all of his energy and attention into being healthy, into gelling with his teammates. His brother is in Brooklyn now, and he has gone out of his way to develop a better relationship with Palo. That's not really a cap on the defense, but just an idea of how different this team could look if everyone stays healthy. But new coach in Sean Sweeney, I think they take real strides defensively. He's the best on ball defender on this team. And that includes Jalen Suggs, who's 15 to one to be all defensive first team. He's 15 to one and Franz is a hundred to one. That is a mispriced in the past. They've put Franz on the best offensive wing and the opposing team. I think they're just going to put them on the best ball handler all season. He was guarding James Harden the other night and they were last night in the preseason. Oh, of two, when guarded by Franz Wagner, he's a menace defensively. He doesn't get enough credit for it. And there's that space. If you look at the guys that are auto bids for first team defense, there's like four If you're generous. So there's a spot there for that fifth spot.
00:59:33
Speaker 1: I'm going to go with Franz. Okay.
00:59:35
Speaker 6: Franz, all defense.
00:59:38
Speaker 2: First team.
00:59:39
Speaker 1: First team.
00:59:39
Speaker 5: 101.
00:59:39
Speaker 1: I have to just.
00:59:41
Speaker 6: Put all defense because I don't have any more room for that long ass bet.
00:59:44
Speaker 4: You gave him a thousand to one, which is pretty sick.
00:59:47
Speaker 7: I might take it. Damn it.
00:59:52
Speaker 2: You could do number one ST.
00:59:55
Speaker 6: I do that a lot where I'm just typing out odds and it's just like.
01:00:00
Speaker 1: 0-0-0-0-0.
01:00:00
Speaker 6: Something about that. Some number of zeros in there.
01:00:03
Speaker 2: Okay.
01:00:04
Speaker 6: Franz, I will do all defense first team.
01:00:06
Speaker 8: Just use the combos and then get rid of them after.
01:00:10
Speaker 7: Okay.
01:00:11
Speaker 6: And then, all right. So, Kravis has got Jazz over 37.5. Wemby, MVP plus 210. Franz, all defense first team, 101. Sixers, 10-1 for the title. And Hornets, 9-1 for the division.
01:00:20
Speaker 1: Joe Dallara.
01:00:28
Speaker 6: You have a long shot. I can't wait to hear this shit.
01:00:34
Speaker 5: I was doing a lot of thinking about what teams might be playing competitive basketball as we're going along here. One of the teams I think is going to play a lot of competitive games. I do like one of their players that's been mentioned before for MVP. I think that maybe cuts into this a little bit. But one of the spots that I was thinking is there's obviously no LeBron James in LA anymore. And a play that I like, and I think a market that's a little bit fluid here, is Clutch Player of the Year. And the player that I'm going to actually go with is Austin Reeves to win Clutch Player of the Year at 70-1.
01:01:17
Speaker 7: I think the number is really, really long.
01:01:20
Speaker 5: And without LeBron there, I think it's just going to be two-man game with him and Luka nonstop. at least in those end of game scenarios. And obviously, you know, Luca could always just kind of take control of the basketball at the end of the game. But I think that the pricing here is worth a look at Austin Reeves at 70 to one, the dude is a bucket, he gets the free throw line. And he's also not afraid to just like keep the ball. And I think that that matters a little bit too. So for a long shot at 70 to one, I think you're getting a little bit of extra value on betting in that scenario, especially if Luka misses some time or whatever the situation is. We've really just seen this go to raw totals in terms of scoring in the clutch. And I think that this Lakers team, I think they're going to be good, but I'm not convinced that they're going to be great. And I don't really feel great about their defense. So I think there are going to be a lot of games where you're down the stretch and you're like, this is a tight game. And that's how you're going to rack up some more clutch opportunities. So I'm going to go with Austin Reeves at 70 to one to be clutch player of the year.
01:02:26
Speaker 1: Huh? Okay.
01:02:28
Speaker 6: All right. I was not expecting that. I thought I was getting set up for a Knicks thing.
01:02:32
Speaker 7: I thought about it.
01:02:34
Speaker 6: I thought about that did not happen. Joe's final card blazers under 41 and a half Cooper flag, all NBA four to one. Austin Reeves clutch 70 to one. OKC title and Shea 30 plus per game plus 450 and the Magic plus 275 for the Southeast division. Michael Fiddle, let's wrap up your card here. What do you want for your last pick?
01:03:00
Speaker 1: So my last pick is title and we've spoken ill will on this team, but I think that was mainly regular season focus. So now I'm going to go postseason focus and I actually think It might change. I'm not going to actually change one of my picks, but I'm almost regretting the Hawks division pick because I'm going to go Miami Heat NBA title 30-1. I thought about Giannis, rebounds leader. I thought about Giannis, MVP odds. The Heat have been in the play-in for four consecutive years. The thought that I had was, are they going to take the regular season really seriously to not be in the play-in? And then it's between the Hawks, the Heat, and the Magic to get two non-play-in spots. So I actually think the Heat are going to take this regular season really seriously, going to gel pretty quickly with Spolstra. And then you couldn't get me through this episode without doing some nerdy handicap. And so on the betting exchanges, this is 24 to 1, and there's a $ 0. 01 split in the $ 0. 06 yes, $ 0. 95 no split. So it's a 1% hold in that market where it's like when you go to the 30 to 1 odds, you're getting like probably close to 8 to 12% hold in there. So I think that this 24 to 1 is much closer to true odds. You go to some sharp offshores, they're 16 to 1. So just blindly from an EV perspective, this is going to be a good play on the Miami Heat. And give me Giannis and Bam and Spolstra. And I think they might be, it's never mattered in the past, but we always think it might matter this year. They're probably the top buyout candidate spot, landing spot in the NBA. They're probably the, hey, we could give you some good usage at a guard position. If there is some sort of intriguing veteran guard in a buyout position, the Miami Heat are going to be very, very likely to land that guy.
01:04:49
Speaker 2: Zach Levine.
01:04:51
Speaker 1: You know how exciting that would get me to get Zach Levine on this team and have a 30-1 on the Heat? Pretty good.
01:04:58
Speaker 6: Be pretty good. I mean, look, I kind of like it just from the perspective of... Again, if the Heat work, they're a title contender. If they go over, they're a title contender. And I do think it's going to be dangerous seeing Spolstra with the ability to problem-solve with Bam and Giannis in a defensive playoff series. Like, that's just.
01:05:19
Speaker 7: I think it's kind of crazy that the Raptors and them are priced so differently when like, they kind of seem like similar, like.
01:05:24
Speaker 4: Shoot the moon type of, of teams. Like, aren't the Raptors like 12 to one for the title right now?
01:05:31
Speaker 2: Uh, for sure.
01:05:34
Speaker 1: Kawhi is like 175 to one MVP. I mean, I got real close to that one.
01:05:38
Speaker 2: I don't get that.
01:05:39
Speaker 1: The Raptors are 25 to one.
01:05:41
Speaker 6: Oh, okay.
01:05:42
Speaker 7: They dropped. They had been really, they, they were like 12 to one.
01:05:45
Speaker 2: They were inside of 2000 for sure.
01:05:47
Speaker 6: Yeah, they were very trendy early on.
01:05:51
Speaker 7: Okay, that makes more sense.
01:05:53
Speaker 6: Well, I was talking high about them early, so I moved the market.
01:05:55
Speaker 7: You had to, obviously.
01:05:57
Speaker 6: You know, that's how that goes. It's me, big-time market mover. All right, to wrap up Fiddle's final board here. Thunder over 61.5. Cooper Flagg, most improved player at 80-1. The Cavs in the one seed, robbing Jim Turvey at 10-1. Heat, 30-1 to win the title, and Hawks plus 275 for the division. Jim Turvey from Rotogrinders, what's your final bet?
01:06:22
Speaker 7: Yeah, so obviously my preferred long shot is no longer there. I was looking at Luka MVP. Brian got that as well. I was debating... AJ, sixth man of the year. You've scared me off of that by giving me a D grade every time I bring it up. So I'm going to go with a really long shot. I'm kind of hoping I might steal it from you, Matt. I know we agreed on this before. I'm going to do Amin Thompson, most improved player of the year, 71. May as well have a nice, long, fun number here.
01:06:46
Speaker 4: I think if he gets into like the 24 points a game range, if he's a first time all-star player, There is a lot of room. I think he is a kind of buzzed about, well-liked young player. They've got Chip England there. If any sort of shooting progresses, he can add to the points pretty easily. The rebounds and assists are already pretty high. The assists might even come down with Fred VanVleet in town, but he and Marcus Smart are going to make for more easier opportunities for Amin Thompson. The minutes might come down a tiny bit, but I think there's so much ceiling to.
01:07:16
Speaker 7: His scoring just on if he gets an outside shot or if Fred VanVleet frees up more for him.
01:07:22
Speaker 4: And again, I think he's a well-liked player who was, I believe, the co-favorite with his brother to win this last year, now getting a 70-1 when he did make improvements last year, but not nearly to the ceiling that I think is there for this guy. There's the potential for this guy to be the most athletic player in the league if he isn't already there. Those are the type of guys who usually scoop up awards. So at 70-1, I'll make it my long shot here.
01:07:43
Speaker 6: I mean, I love this bet.
01:07:45
Speaker 5: I bet it.
01:07:46
Speaker 3: I gave it out.
01:07:47
Speaker 2: It's great.
01:07:48
Speaker 6: I think there's a very good chance. I think voters are not going to hold, you know, somebody was commenting on me like, well, men was really good last year. And I was like, yeah, but we have a habit of doing the whole, he was good last year, but nobody noticed. And then the next year he's just like a little bit better and winning the award. Like I, I don't think voters pay attention enough on the most improved player to previous. It's more about, you have to outperform the idea of what you were versus what you actually were. Like nobody's going through and doing, Oh, he actually is scoring better. eight points more than last year. It's about, well, I didn't think you were very good last year and now I think you're awesome. And that's a lot more flexible to be able to pull off. So I like that. Jim Turvey's final board Sixers under 50 and a half. Will Hardy coach of the year, 12 to one men, Thompson, most improved player, 70 to one, the Spurs to win the title plus two 70 and the Lakers minus one 20 to win the division. A little chalky, Jim. Well, little, little chalky this year.
01:08:49
Speaker 4: If I got AJ, it would have been really chalky at six to one. So I need that 70 to one in there to kind of boost, boost my numbers up.
01:08:54
Speaker 6: Yeah, for sure. Uh, my final selection is for the NBA title, uh, and it is going to be the Detroit Pistons 25 to one. That's going to be mine. Um, I have the Pistons at 58 wins. I have the Pistons as the one seat in the Eastern conference. I think the Detroit Pistons are going to be better. I think they added shooting. I think John Collins is a more impactful player at this point in his career than Tobias Harris at this point in his career. I think that, uh, though I do, it would be like, you tell me like you are betting on JB Bickerstaff to coach his way to the finals. And I start to be like, I don't feel so good, but, but you know what? Doc Rivers was actually kind of thought of as like a little bit of a joke coach until he got the 2008 Celtics. And this team is not the 2008 Celtics, but coaching reputations change very quickly. So I am going to go ahead and pay with the Pistons 25 to one as my final one. And my final card is going to be the Rockets over 47 and a half on the wind total. Cam Boozer plus 300. Boston Philadelphia in the Eastern Conference Finals at 14 to one. I'm countering that with a Pistons plus a 25 to one so that the Cavs are definitely winning the East. Rockets plus 650.
01:10:09
Speaker 2: For the division.
01:10:09
Speaker 6: And that's my final board. This is your final board. Let us know in the comments who you think won this draft. Because this is the whole board. You can catch it on social and on the card and on the video on YouTube. If you're listening on the podcast, you can go back through. I'm not going to read all 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. We have 30 picks. I'm not going to read all 30 here on the show. I will, however, tell you what our best bets are brought to you by DraftKings Sportsbooks. Because those are going to be our first overall bets for DraftKings Sportsbooks. Our official best bets presented by DraftKings. Brian Fonseca, the Indiana Pacers title at 40 to 1. Like that one. Brandon Kravitz, Utah Jazz over 37 and a half wins. Dallara, OKC Thunder title and SGA 30 plus in the specials tab at DK plus 450. Michael Fiddle, Cooper Flagg, most improved player at 80 to 1. Jim Turvey, the Sixers under 50 and a half wins. And for myself, the Houston Rockets, over 48.5 wins. Those are the first round picks from tonight's 2026 NBA Futures Draft Show presented by DraftKings. Don't forget to use code BUCKETS when signing up. DraftKings, giving out profit boosts every game day so you don't want to miss it. Download the DraftKings Sports app today. The crown is yours. We did it, and we did it in 1-12. We got through 30 picks in 1 hour and 12 minutes with six of us.
01:11:38
Speaker 3: Yeah!
01:11:38
Speaker 1: Yeah!
01:11:39
Speaker 6: Let's go. I hope you guys enjoyed it. I hope you guys had fun. I hope you guys enjoyed the bets. Let us know what you think about it. Hit us up on Twitter at action network HQ on Twitter. Appreciate you guys being with us. My thanks to all the guys for their hard work for prepping for this. This was not an easy task that I gave them and they did a phenomenal job. If you miss any of our other preseason episodes, they're available now in your podcast feed. We'll have an episode looking at nightly betting strategy. I got fiddle and Raheem Palmer and we're going to get, I mean, we're, The nerdiest of the nerddom as far as like chasing that tasty, tasty CLV will be available for you next in the feed. So make sure to check that out. Make sure you're subscribed on YouTube where those will be live and they'll be available where you listen to podcasts. So make sure to leave us a like and a five star review and rating. We really appreciate it. My thanks to David Payne for all of his extra help with this episode in particular, as well as all the episodes this week. Uh, the guys will be back with you next week as we start best bets every night of the NBA season, Monday, Sunday through Thursday, uh, for Brian, for Brandon Kravitz, for Brian Fonseca, for Joe DeLera and his mustache for Michael Fiddle and for Jim Turvey and all his radishes. We appreciate you guys being with us. We'll see you guys again next time. Until then, let's get buckets. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, Help is available 24-7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
Speaker 1: What these young bloods have to understand, that this game has always been and will always be about buckets. Just attack the basket.
00:00:11
Speaker 2: Stop it!
00:00:11
Speaker 1: Stop it! Do it like that!
00:00:17
Speaker 3: Oh!
00:00:17
Speaker 2: With no regard for human life!
00:00:23
Speaker 3: Bang!
00:00:23
Speaker 4: Bang!
00:00:23
Speaker 3: I cannot believe you've done it again!
00:00:27
Speaker 1: Are you kidding me?
00:00:28
Speaker 5: Oh!
00:00:32
Speaker 1: Welcome to Buckets!
00:00:35
Speaker 6: The NBA season is here. My name is Matt Moore. This show is brought to you by DraftKings Sportsbook. The NBA season is right around the corner. And to get us started, I've got the whole crew with me. And we're going to do an NBA Futures Draft. We're actually going to go through. We've got categories. You have to fill out your entire slate. There will be betrayals. There will be objections. There will be Brief explanations because we have to make this work inside of an hour. Because Brian Fonseca needs to go draft Musa Diabate with the first overall pick of his fantasy draft. We have a lot to get to tonight. We're glad to have you guys with us. Make sure if you're watching live on YouTube that you give us a like and subscribe. Feel free to agree or disagree with the picks. I would love to hear what you guys think are the best picks that are taken from a strategic standpoint of this. And which are.
00:01:31
Speaker 1: Which.
00:01:32
Speaker 6: are the worst as well. Don't forget to download the free award-winning Action Network app. And if you want to take it a step further, sign up for Action Pro. Our listeners can get $ 20 off their first year of Action Pro by using promo code POD20 at actionnetwork.com slash pro. Plus, BetSync is back in the Action app. And now you can automatically track your activity across 15 plus sports books and prediction markets all at once. Connect your accounts once and your bets and trades will automatically appear as soon as you place them. No manual tracking required. Just open the Action app, head to My Accounts, connect your sportsbook or prediction market, and you're ready to go. All right, here are our contestants on tonight's draft. Myself, Matt Moore, Brian Fonseca, Brandon Kravitz, BK, the man straight out of a 1970s porn film, Joe Dallara, Michael Fiddle, and of course, from Roto-Grinders, Jim Favreau. turvy i do want like that joe is no longer wearing the robe that he was wearing on the last episode that i did with him which just frankly made me very uncomfortable i'm glad although i will say his wife has assured me several times that she enjoys this look that he is rocking so i need to like just accept that i'm out of touch with like current styles so good to see you joe thanks.
00:02:47
Speaker 7: I uh threw the robe in the laundry so.
00:02:49
Speaker 6: Okay well now i'm uncomfortable again Win total, award, long shot, title, and division. Those are our categories on the night. You can see them on the board here at youtube.com slash the action network. Win total, an award. You got to go a long shot. I did plus 400 or longer because that is actually a pretty long shot, but most of the guys will go way longer than that. Title, and then a division bet. You have to get through all of them. in order to fill out your card. We do have a snake draft. We're going to start tonight with Brian Fonseca. Brian, you get first pick.
00:03:27
Speaker 7: What do you want first?
00:03:29
Speaker 2: Indiana Pacers to win the title at plus $ 4, 000. Woo!
00:03:32
Speaker 3: Wow!
00:03:32
Speaker 6: Coming out hot!
00:03:34
Speaker 7: Is that your long shot or your title pick? That's your title pick?
00:03:38
Speaker 6: Is that your title pick or your long shot?
00:03:40
Speaker 2: No, that's my title pick.
00:03:41
Speaker 4: Matt, where do I send in the chat about the terrible draft picks?
00:03:46
Speaker 8: Oh, this number is too fucking low. Like, why are they behind the Heat, the Cavs, and the Pistons? And the Celtics, for that matter. Like, that just doesn't make sense to me. I understand Tyrese Halliburton's coming back from a devastating injury, but this team is good. Even their win total is like 43.5. Like, I just don't understand it. I know the East is deeper, better, but I think the entire summer, like, I've just been staring at all these Pacers numbers, and they're just too low. I just think this team's going to be better than 43.5 or is a legit contender and has one of the most seven, eight meaningful players in basketball right now coming back into their lineup. So, yeah, I'm going with Halliburton and I'm going with the Pacers.
00:04:27
Speaker 1: That was spicy.
00:04:28
Speaker 3: You go ahead, Jim.
00:04:30
Speaker 7: No, I give a chip.
00:04:31
Speaker 4: But honestly, if you're going to play the Pacers, go for the like shoot the moon. It's like if Halliburton is back at Halliburton levels. I do think that like we just saw the last time they were healthy, they were there. in a game seven and could have won it. So I'm low on the Pacers. So it was surprising.
00:04:44
Speaker 7: It's surprising. I was like the first pick of this draft, but listen, I fucking respect it.
00:04:48
Speaker 2: I was going to start off with something boring, a fucking wind total.
00:04:52
Speaker 7: I love it. I'm so glad. I'm so nobody wants to see.
00:04:55
Speaker 8: Nobody wants to hear fucking warriors under 38 and a half to start this pot.
00:05:00
Speaker 2: That's for the other pot.
00:05:01
Speaker 6: Well, now I'm taking warriors under 38 and a half. I get to be my turn.
00:05:04
Speaker 1: Go ahead. Okay.
00:05:06
Speaker 8: All right.
00:05:07
Speaker 6: Finseca starts off red hot with this one. Pacers, it's 40 to 1. I got the number right?
00:05:12
Speaker 2: 40 to 1. Still available. Multiple books.
00:05:15
Speaker 7: I bet it will be.
00:05:16
Speaker 6: All right. Shockingly, nobody is like, oh, man, that was on my board. All right, Brandon Kravitz, your number one overall pick.
00:05:27
Speaker 3: This is definitely how the Avengers felt when they descended on New York.
00:05:31
Speaker 2: This feeling right here.
00:05:32
Speaker 1: This is great.
00:05:33
Speaker 7: All right.
00:05:34
Speaker 3: Well, I am going of I'm going to go with a different strategy where my first pick is going to be maybe not the bet I believe in the most, but the one that I think is going to get sniped the most. I'm going to go with the Utah Jazz over 36 and a half wins. This is the trendiest pick on the planet right now. I think a lot of us on this podcast channel have this team circled. and had them circled at the end of last year with 50% less talent. Will Hardy having to call off the dogs at halftime because these guys were overperforming when the NBA still allowed tanking a full season of a full effort. Darren Peterson added to the mix in a diminished Western conference. They're going to be within striking distance of the playoffs, which by the way, if you want to bet that plus one 50, not a bad one either, but I like them over 36 and a half wins.
00:06:25
Speaker 2: I'll take it before anybody else can.
00:06:28
Speaker 6: Oh, wow.
00:06:29
Speaker 7: That should have been my first. Yeah, that really should have been 1-1, honestly.
00:06:36
Speaker 1: Damn it.
00:06:37
Speaker 6: I was so close. I'm trying to type and fill in the graph.
00:06:41
Speaker 1: You were not close. We're six minutes into the podcast.
00:06:43
Speaker 2: We just started.
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Speaker 6: Almost got there.
00:06:47
Speaker 7: So close.
00:06:49
Speaker 6: I think the most common one, I don't know that that's the most common one with this group. It is a very trendy pick. So I understand why you went ahead and grabbed it, because I do think that the Utah are going to be a trendy team this year for sure. So Fonseca Pacers 40 to one. Kravis takes jazz over 37 and a half is best in market that I saw right now. OK, back to the list. Joe DeLera, you're up next. Who do you want?
00:07:15
Speaker 5: So I'm going to do something naturally, like a little bit unconventional here. Um, and by that, I mean, I'm going to take a title pick, but I'm not going to take exactly the title pick. Um, so right now we have in something that I think is a pretty good boost for this title odds. So I like the Oklahoma city thunder to get back to the title and I like them to win the title. I don't really like their odds though. I think their odds are like a little bit shorter than what I would typically want. DraftKings has a special. And if you go to DraftKings and you go, uh, to like their team specials, You go all the way to the right, first team, Oklahoma City Thunder. And you can juice it a little bit, like add an extra variable here. And it's for Shea to average 30 points per game and for them to win the title. And it bumps the odds all the way up to plus 450. And that's something that I'm highly interested in. Shea has averaged 30 points per game in each of the last four seasons. And he's kind of done it for the most part by margin. The one season he had 30.1, but he's at 31.4, 30.1, 32.7, 31.1. Um, I'm more than willing to take on that little bit of extra risk to bump this up from, uh, what's their market price right now to win the, to win the finals.
00:08:30
Speaker 7: I was like, I was like appalled. I was like, I can't do this.
00:08:32
Speaker 5: I can't, I can't get into that, but, uh, I'm bumping it from plus two 70 all the way up to plus four 50 on shade average 30 points per game this season. So I really like that. He's currently listed to average 30 points per game. He's minus 310. So I am more than willing to take this extra risk here to bump this up to plus 450. And honestly, if he doesn't average 30 points per game, I'm going to be like a little bit confused about what's going on in Oklahoma City.
00:09:01
Speaker 7: So and I probably won't like them to win the title either.
00:09:03
Speaker 5: So shade average 30 points per game. Oklahoma City Thunder to win the championship plus 450 as my title pick.
00:09:10
Speaker 6: So you want this logged as your title and not a long shot.
00:09:13
Speaker 3: Yes.
00:09:13
Speaker 7: Oh no, we have something way longer than four to one.
00:09:17
Speaker 6: This is some, this is some Brandon Anderson breaking rules bullshit right here.
00:09:23
Speaker 1: This is a sick pick.
00:09:23
Speaker 7: This is so, I love this.
00:09:25
Speaker 6: My sliding in the specials to get your title pick in.
00:09:29
Speaker 1: Yes.
00:09:29
Speaker 6: I got to respect it. We say to shop around and Joe Dallara did in fact shop around at DK. The crown is yours.
00:09:37
Speaker 7: Are the thunders still on the board now? What do you mean? Like can someone take OKC title? Then you're just taking a worse pick than me. So yeah, go for it. It'll be good for the people.
00:09:47
Speaker 6: You could still take the straight plus 270. Yeah.
00:09:49
Speaker 7: I'll allow that.
00:09:52
Speaker 1: OK.
00:09:54
Speaker 6: Damn, Joe.
00:09:55
Speaker 7: Inventive.
00:09:56
Speaker 6: I like it.
00:09:56
Speaker 7: Started off hot.
00:09:58
Speaker 6: All right, Fiddle.
00:09:58
Speaker 7: What do you got?
00:10:00
Speaker 1: Cooking? So I think like Brandon, a lot of people thought I was going to come in and say, here's going to be some CLV on a win total and just, you know, drive for show and putt for dough, but game theory here says there's like 12 win totals I'm comfortable with, so I'm not rushing to the win total board. I respect BK's jazz pick, but I'm not rushing to the win total board. The thing I thought that was going to get sniped, I'm going to put this in my awards, and it's going to be Cooper Flagg, most improved player, 80-1. And my question for this bet is, is there a chance that Cooper Flagg And what's the probability? Is it greater than 1.5% or 2% that Cooper Flagg's just already running in Defensive Player of the Year? I don't expect him to win, but going to get votes in Defensive Player of the Year? And is he averaging 24 or more points and 8 or more rebounds and 3.5 stocks between this? And we're like, he's already an outside MVP candidate, and he's a no-brainer all-star, all-star starter. So at 80-1, they say.
00:11:06
Speaker 1: You can't really let a second year player get most improved. That's kind of the trope around this award that, oh, you expect people to improve in their second year. Well, at 80 to one, like it's already happened twice since the turn of the 21st century. Gilbert Arenas did it in 2002. Monte Ellis did it. in 2006. So what's stopping Cooper flag from being able to do that and going from a rookie year where he was in the race with con canipple of who's going to win rookie of the year, some injuries, whatever to the next year of like, holy shit, this guy's a potential MVP candidate, a potential defensive of the year player candidate, a all-star starter every year for the foreseeable future. And he's the most improved player. Okay.
00:11:49
Speaker 6: I respect it. I think I liked the, the idea behind it. I now kind of want him to win MIP and Conn Knipple to also go off and then Conn Knipple leave for most of the year and then him lose again at Cooper flag. Like that's kind of what I want is like just every single time that, that I want Conn Knipple to be the Aaron Burr, the flags, Alexander Hamilton.
00:12:11
Speaker 1: Okay.
00:12:12
Speaker 4: Fiddle with an 80 to one was not on my board and I happen to be, and not even in the long shot.
00:12:18
Speaker 1: I got a 90 to one stored up. I got a 200 to one stored up. We're swinging for fences.
00:12:23
Speaker 6: Look at you.
00:12:24
Speaker 7: I'm proud of you.
00:12:25
Speaker 6: Thank you for understanding the assignment, Michael.
00:12:27
Speaker 1: The win total, I'll win. Have no fear. I'll win the win total that I choose. But let's see if I can get one of these other ones as well. All right.
00:12:34
Speaker 6: Jim Turvey, your first bet. Just review the board real quick. We got Pacers 40 to one from Fonseca. Jazz over 37 and a half from Kravitz. OKC title and Shea 30 plus from Joe. And Fiddle's flag most improved player at 80 to one. Jim, what's your first pick?
00:12:51
Speaker 7: Yeah, where did Fiddle drop the game theory bomb?
00:12:54
Speaker 4: I thought I was going to have to go with a category here, but even though I'm with you, Fiddle, that there's a lot of win totals I like, I actually am seeing the board appear and maybe seeing, being able to get some other stuff based on bets or the people.
00:13:07
Speaker 7: So I am going to go to win total. I am going to go to the one that was referenced before the show. I think, actually, no, I'm not.
00:13:14
Speaker 4: Curveball, I'm going to do Philadelphia under. I was thinking about a different one. I'm just going to lock in what I think is the safest one, 76ers under. um it's a year i like unders in general more already injuries stacking up there their front court they could be starting dominic barlow on at center on on opening night it could be a disaster there's enough talent there to drag them into the postseason picture but i don't see this team getting 50 wins i just don't think that's gonna be a priority for them so i will take the 76ers under as my win total.
00:13:41
Speaker 6: Bet i've got them at 15 and a half are you good with that yeah even better Okay, that's the 50 and a half. We'll get you on there.
00:13:49
Speaker 1: Can I give a slight objection to this? Yes. I don't disagree with the bet. If I had to choose, I would take the under. But there's just no way that I personally could put a dollar on a LeBron season under. I'm just too beholden to... Come on. We have to root for LeBron and his... in his waning season. I, if it's, well, this is the last year. If it's one more year after that, I could never sign up to ride a full season. LeBron under no way.
00:14:15
Speaker 4: There's a great, I wonder what he is. His win total over unders are the last like 10 years.
00:14:20
Speaker 7: It's bad. I would guess.
00:14:21
Speaker 1: I would guess.
00:14:21
Speaker 7: It's probably always bad.
00:14:22
Speaker 5: Yeah.
00:14:23
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:14:23
Speaker 2: It's bad.
00:14:24
Speaker 1: Cause it definitely went over last year with the Lakers.
00:14:26
Speaker 7: He did.
00:14:27
Speaker 5: Yeah.
00:14:27
Speaker 6: It went over last year, but he didn't play some of that.
00:14:30
Speaker 1: He also had a negative plus minus.
00:14:31
Speaker 6: So, uh, there's a movie called, cocktail that i like very much in the 80s with tom cruise and there's a line in it that i absolutely adore which is he's talking to a girl that and the breakup is going badly and he says of course it ended badly if it wasn't if it didn't end badly it wouldn't end i just want to point that out with lebron.
00:14:50
Speaker 1: Apropos of nothing to do with the sixers father time and mother nature are the two undefeated there.
00:14:56
Speaker 6: You go uh okay bars uh my first pick is going to be I am going to play safe and conservative here, and I'm going to take the one that I'm pretty sure Jim was going to take. I'm going to take the Rockets over 48 and a half. That's going to be mine. I think 47 and a half is the best in the market. Talked about this over and over and over again. I like it the more I've thought about it. To be quite honest with you, I was thinking through all this and then had the realization when he played the other night, like, oh, yeah, and they got Marcus Smart. That helps. That just helps. Now, maybe it's bad because that means they won't play Reed Shepard because E-Mame Doka hates that kid. But I just think there's too much. If you want to know why, you can listen to any of the podcasts that we've done on the future stuff. Rockets Over is, I just think it's a really good bet. And I just feel like this was very badly mispriced in the market. Okay. I'm back to back. So I've got to go again. And I'm going to turn. I don't want to do my long shot yet. Nope.
00:15:56
Speaker 1: You know what?
00:15:56
Speaker 6: I'm going to keep it simple because I'm going to extrapolate on this and try and bank on getting it. If I'm right, I'm really right because I'm going to take Rockets division plus 650. I think if they're within range, the idea here is pretty simple. If the Spurs regress, a regression from 60 is greater than a regression from 55. It's greater than a regression from 50. So if the regression from 60 happens, you're talking about, okay, I think it's probably more than three wins. So we're talking more about 55, and I've got the Rockets projected at 55 wins. So I'm going to go ahead and take Rockets to win the Southwest division, beating the San Antonio Spurs for it at plus 650. That's going to be mine. Any objections to my bet?
00:16:46
Speaker 1: I think that was one of the three best division bets possible off the board.
00:16:52
Speaker 7: It was my third as well, yeah.
00:16:54
Speaker 6: Okay, Jim, back to you. We're doing Snake. Back to you for pick two.
00:16:57
Speaker 4: I'm going to go back to division as well. I'm debating between two, one of which because I'm not 100% certain on numbers. So someone call me out if this is a too stale a number. Lakers division minus 130. Fiddle, you got a screen up?
00:17:12
Speaker 1: Are we good there?
00:17:13
Speaker 7: I think it's about right.
00:17:16
Speaker 1: I'll pull it up for you right now.
00:17:17
Speaker 7: Okay, I'll get the mini cap.
00:17:19
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's minus 120s out there. But yeah, you can find minus 130 as well. Okay, perfect.
00:17:24
Speaker 7: So Lakers, the rest of this division is just trash.
00:17:27
Speaker 4: Even if you aren't on Lakers Island with me, you have to be on the Suns, the Kings, the Clippers, or a team that I'm literally forgetting right now.
00:17:38
Speaker 7: The Warriors? The Warriors, who I'm all the way out on. At least Porzingis doesn't have AIDS, like you said today.
00:17:44
Speaker 2: Oh, no.
00:17:47
Speaker 4: Uh, Lakers minus one 20 division. I, I will, I'm just going to leave that there and, and throw it back to Matt.
00:17:53
Speaker 1: That was wild. Keep going.
00:17:55
Speaker 6: Just keep going. Keep going.
00:17:59
Speaker 7: Lakers minus one 20 division.
00:18:01
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:18:01
Speaker 6: Hope I hope we're saying this is okay. I genuinely hope we're saying.
00:18:04
Speaker 2: Me too, but why did he feel the need to put in the last sentence?
00:18:06
Speaker 6: Because that's like how many people I will tell you people legitimately were asking about that. Yeah. People have legitimately have legitimately been speculating that he has those conditions. which is because people are really, really awful.
00:18:20
Speaker 1: Um, he refuted it by the way, for those that haven't seen that.
00:18:23
Speaker 7: That was the point.
00:18:23
Speaker 1: Yeah. All right.
00:18:26
Speaker 6: Uh, here's the current board. Jim takes division for the Lakers at minus one 30. Um, look, it's a terrible division. I have them winning the division and I have them at 38 wins. So yeah. So that's how bad that, that division is a fiddle back to you. Where do you want to go?
00:18:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're getting a run on the division odds right now. That's that's probably the hardest market of these five to find value. I'll go with the Atlanta Hawks division plus 275 in market. They're paired up with the Hornets, who I'm personally on a win total under not going to give it out here. Magic with a new coach and endless injury history. Just ask Brandon about it. Miami Heat integrating Giannis and Bam and trying to keep those guys healthy. And the Wizards, who let's see what they can do. They might be frisky, but not division winners. The Atlanta Hawks went on this surge towards the second half of last season. And I think a lot of it was thought to be kind of fraudulent because they played weak teams in that run. And I actually think that's not true to actually what they did this summer, bringing in Lou Dort, bringing in Aaron Wiggins. I'm totally fine with the combination of bigs that they have in Okongwu and Landale. I actually think this team has a lot of ways to play, and that'll make them really match-up proof in a lot of these games. They're the only team that took two games off the Knicks all playoffs. So I actually think let's not sleep on the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta Hawks division plus 275 is going to be my choice.
00:19:59
Speaker 6: I like this one a lot. I think that this has a lot of value. I think betting on the instability of the Heat is probably a sound proposition for preseason.
00:20:07
Speaker 5: Yeah.
00:20:08
Speaker 6: It's a terrifying prospect, but I've been thinking a lot about today about like, like, look, if you're, you know, the way to make money is to scare money. Don't make money.
00:20:15
Speaker 1: Right.
00:20:16
Speaker 6: And I just think that if you're going to, if you're going to bank on, if you have any question at all about Miami, this division is being treated as if it's fate accompli. So I just think that there's a, there's an opportunity here for Atlanta with very solid coaching, more continuity, all of those types of things. So I think there's a good opportunity and the dog agrees too. So that's a, that's a win as well. All right. Let's head back. To Joe DeLera. Joe, what do you got for us now? I am going to warn you. I will allow one more DK special before I start to get itchy.
00:20:51
Speaker 7: So I am going to use DraftKings. Oh, no, it moved.
00:20:55
Speaker 3: Never mind. Not going to do that.
00:20:57
Speaker 1: All right.
00:20:58
Speaker 7: I am going to do a bet here because I have to.
00:21:04
Speaker 2: It wasn't going to be a normal one until whatever happened.
00:21:06
Speaker 1: No, it wasn't.
00:21:06
Speaker 5: It actually, it wasn't going to be, it wasn't going to be as normal.
00:21:09
Speaker 3: I'm going to do a bet here is officially the one.
00:21:16
Speaker 5: I'm debating a little bit of which, which market I wanted to, wanted to kind.
00:21:20
Speaker 7: Of nail down here.
00:21:21
Speaker 5: But I'm going to actually go to, I'm going to go to division as well. And I'm going to go heads up a little bit with fiddle here. I'm going to grab the Orlando magic to win the division.
00:21:32
Speaker 7: Um, I, I kind of like them.
00:21:33
Speaker 5: I think they're a little bit underpriced right now. Um, they're plus two 75. Uh, so kind of like right in line with the Hawks. Um, I, it's a little bit more of, I think the lineups were actually pretty good when they had their main.
00:21:45
Speaker 7: Five players play together. It just, they just never played together.
00:21:49
Speaker 5: So it's more of an issue in terms of the health, but I think from a continuity perspective, I liked the fact they got a new coach. So I'm not really worried about that. I think that's a good thing. But I think the personnel, like the players, are going to be comfortable playing with each other.
00:22:01
Speaker 7: They know each other. They've now been practicing with each other.
00:22:03
Speaker 5: And I think that Desmond Bain had some growing pains with them last year. I think that'll be ironed out a little bit. But the biggest thing is really this is a bet on health and the fact that they just weren't really involved in the postseason at all. They're a team that's going to be healthy. They are a team that, presumably anyway, they're a team that has basically gotten the entire summer off and extended summer Um, and I think they, they know that they had a missed opportunity there.
00:22:30
Speaker 7: And I think when you look at Franz and Paolo, especially.
00:22:33
Speaker 5: They they're a duo where it doesn't seem like, you know, it seems like the vibes are decent between them, but I think if something doesn't happen this year, one of them's probably gone. I don't know how much longer you can really kind of do this. So I think that they have, um, definitely a path and they definitely have a lot of talent. So I think a plus two 75, considering I'm a little.
00:22:51
Speaker 7: Bit lower on Miami.
00:22:52
Speaker 5: This season as well I think this is a pretty good opportunity for Orlando a team that we all really did like last year and you know they just kind of never managed to get up to expectations because.
00:23:02
Speaker 6: Of injuries I don't mind this at all either you know for the same reasons I like the Hawks pick I don't have a strong feeling on Hawks versus Magic I think with the Hawks it's like look at the last four months of the season with the Magic it's hey there's a coach that might actually get them to put the little ball inside the little net thingy that would be nice one time I'm watching the magic and preseason. I like a lot of their scheme and structure. Wendell Carr jr. Is spacing a lot more to the corner and then crashing on the inside. They're using Franz Wagner as primary initiator, maybe getting Palo Banquero off the ball a little bit and using him as tip of the spear. That might work a little bit better for the offensive side. You know, we'll see what the defensive side of this looks like and how that kind of works out. They're having the Silva shoot in volume on threes. So it does look like they're adjusting some of the personnel stuff. I think there's, I think these are, these are two good coaches. Um, I think Swinney's good.
00:23:50
Speaker 1: I don't know. He's good.
00:23:51
Speaker 6: I know that Snyder is, um, I think it's worth the upside pick on it. So I don't necessarily mind it. So plus two 75 for fiddle going head to head with, uh, or going ahead with Dallara Dallara plus two 75 on the magic going head to head with fiddle Hawks plus two 75 BK back to you, buddy. What do you want for your second pick?
00:24:09
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would assume that you guys would think I'm upset about the Magic Division odds getting sniped from me.
00:24:16
Speaker 2: I had to do it.
00:24:18
Speaker 7: I knew you were up.
00:24:20
Speaker 3: Well, I'm going to do the same thing to the guy that's in front of me or behind me here. And I guess we'll just mop up the remainder of the division. I like the Hornets 9-1 to win the Southeast.
00:24:33
Speaker 1: Woo! This is awesome.
00:24:38
Speaker 3: We got a Southeast run going on here.
00:24:40
Speaker 5: Can we get a bet on if any of these teams will be outside of the play-in tournament, like in the top six?
00:24:46
Speaker 6: Brian Fonseca has the ability to do the funniest thing possible next. But BK, explain the Hornets real quick.
00:24:54
Speaker 1: So.
00:24:56
Speaker 3: I, like the rest of you, find value on this division because I'm lower on the Miami Heat than what the general public would be. I think all of these teams, Hornets included, with the Hawks, the Magic, and the Miami Heat, are going to be bunched up. So give me the longest realistic odds to win it. I genuinely don't understand why the Magic are 275 and the Hornets are 9-1. It should be much tighter than that. I don't mind the magic bet from the prediction perspective. I hate the price. I like the moves that the Hornets made. Nas Reed, Grayson Allen. I think they matured a lot as a group last year. They're freed from the shackles of having to play lamello ball basketball. This is a serious team with elite coaching. They got hot late last year. If they're able to start the season that way, they're going to have a nice little runway here to at least be in this race at the end with a nice nine to one ticket.
00:25:53
Speaker 4: I mean, I think you're going to be freed from the shackles of lamello basketball and scoring, like hitting like 10 less threes a game. I think he drove the entire offense and I get the like serious, unserious argument, but like they were pretty serious when they were like a plus 14 net rating team in the second half.
00:26:09
Speaker 7: And I think he was a large part of that.
00:26:11
Speaker 4: I also think that there's a chance that like the schemes that Charles Lee, I think Charles, he's a great coach, but I think those schemes maybe get learned a little bit. So I'm lower on the Hornets. Um, But again, I never mind these teams that you're not high on. I actually don't mind taking the long shot. So I agree that there's value somewhere in that division, and it would be really funny if Brian finished this out here.
00:26:33
Speaker 6: Yeah, just to review this, we have gone five straight division bets. So if you're... I hope nobody is like stepped away and was like, Oh, I can't wait until they get to the division bets later. Uh, rockets plus six 50 was mine. Lakers minus one 30 was turkeys fiddle went with Hawks plus two 75. Delara went magic. And then Kravitz went Hornets plus 900 on the back of extreme Lamello ball. Hey, which I honestly, I kind of respect. Um, all right, Brian, you have the ability to do something extremely funny here.
00:27:03
Speaker 2: The funniest thing possible. Um, would be for me to just take the heat division right now.
00:27:09
Speaker 1: Just a lengthy season long heat money line play from Brian.
00:27:15
Speaker 7: It's even funnier with it being Brian for sure.
00:27:18
Speaker 2: Unsurprisingly, I'm not as low on them as you guys are. Unsurprisingly.
00:27:24
Speaker 8: Now I shouldn't take a division bet now because I don't have to, since all of you.
00:27:28
Speaker 2: Pretty much already did. I'm going to do that anyway. I'm going to go to the.
00:27:34
Speaker 1: That was the funniest thing that I thought.
00:27:36
Speaker 7: Still doing the funniest thing possible.
00:27:39
Speaker 5: Brian being the stuff at the top of this draft is the best thing that's ever happened.
00:27:42
Speaker 7: We're on a roll.
00:27:43
Speaker 2: We got to keep it going for the content. So I'm going to the Atlantic division. I'm going to the Atlantic division. I'm going to the Atlantic division. I'm taking the Celtics plus 215. It's the right choice.
00:27:54
Speaker 7: This was second on mine.
00:27:55
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:27:55
Speaker 7: Celtics plus 210.
00:27:59
Speaker 2: There's a 2-15, 2-10. There's a 2-15 out there, though. Yeah.
00:28:06
Speaker 8: I don't love them as a playoff team, I don't think, but we'll see. I do like them as a regular season team, though. I'm expecting the Sixers to be kind of wonky again all year because they're always fucking like this. I think people are getting a little bit too high on the Raptors, although I feel better about them in the playoffs, if Kawhi is healthy, of course, than in the regular season.
00:28:26
Speaker 2: And then with the Knicks.
00:28:29
Speaker 8: I think they're going to walk into 50 wins. I don't know how much more than that they're going to get. I think it might just be capped at like 51 or something along those lines. I actually think Boston's regular season upside is really good. I don't know if they'll win a playoff series, but I think the regular season upside is really good.
00:28:46
Speaker 6: I like, I like, I like this bet. I'm going to, I'm like, I'm going to have this in Raptors. I'm basically, you know, fading Nick Sixers, um, and that's obviously, but I, I like this bet at plus two 50. I still think there's value.
00:28:57
Speaker 8: So instead of the heat, me of all people take the Celtics at the end.
00:29:01
Speaker 6: That's pretty great too, is that you get to every time that you're pissed off at the Celtics one again with their bullshit Missoula bowl, you get to be like, but I'm closer to my division back.
00:29:10
Speaker 2: Look, I like Jalen Brown. I kind of think their team makes a lot of sense without him there though. Unfortunately.
00:29:14
Speaker 6: All right. You get back to back. This is a snake. So you get to go, but go again, Brian, what do you want?
00:29:18
Speaker 2: Warriors under 38 and a half wins.
00:29:21
Speaker 1: Okay.
00:29:21
Speaker 2: I was asleep.
00:29:22
Speaker 8: I was, I was thinking this wouldn't make it back to me maybe, but this made it back and I have to take them now.
00:29:28
Speaker 2: I just don't see it with this team.
00:29:30
Speaker 8: They're a Steph Curry injury away from being the Eric Pascal, D'Angelo Russell Warriors.
00:29:35
Speaker 2: Like, I don't think this team is that good. I think Yaxo Candy.
00:29:40
Speaker 7: Good.
00:29:40
Speaker 8: I think Pojemski is probably not as good as people, the most optimistic Pojemski people think he's going to be. But the contract that he signed, I thought was fine or can be fine. Draymond is basically like, if Steph is there, cool. If he's not, I don't know if he's going to give a shit. We've seen that already. And then Chris Asperzingas, this is not ready.
00:30:01
Speaker 1: He's not healthy.
00:30:02
Speaker 2: We don't know what to expect there. This was originally at like 40 earlier in the offseason. It's been dropping.
00:30:08
Speaker 8: I still don't mind it at 38.5. I think this should really be in like the mid-30s, and I could see them being under even that.
00:30:16
Speaker 6: All right, Warriors under 38.5 for Fonseca. We have four win totals off the board. We have five division bets off the board. We have two title bets off the board. including whatever the fuck it was, Joe, Joe, the, and flag most improved player won award off the board. Joe, we are, uh, sorry, BK. We're back to you.
00:30:36
Speaker 1: BK.
00:30:37
Speaker 6: What do you want for your third pick?
00:30:39
Speaker 3: I'm just going to bag a win here. I'll take an easy dub in around three. Victor, when Benyama MVP plus two 10, please.
00:30:49
Speaker 2: And thank you.
00:30:51
Speaker 3: If he plays 65 games, I just don't see a world where the Spurs aren't elite and And the case for who made the biggest impact in winning isn't Victor Wimbenyama. I mean, what he's able to do defensively to impact games, the improvements on offense, the guy is still super young. Last year, they were way ahead of schedule. This is supposed to be the year where he becomes the guy.
00:31:18
Speaker 5: And.
00:31:20
Speaker 3: I mean, this is preordained stuff, even more so than LeBron. LeBron's first MVP was in the 0809 season. I went back and looked at what the preseason odds were. He was five to one. He was fourth on the board in the we've decided as an NBA collective that this is now LeBron's league. Well, we have done the same thing with Victor Wimbinyama here in the year of 2026, and he's plus 210 because he's just that good.
00:31:47
Speaker 2: So yeah, I don't add that one to the sheet.
00:31:49
Speaker 6: Yeah, man. I mean, look, I was talking about this with Turby today on One Bet for Every Team. Go listen to that podcast. Jim killed that podcast today. Go listen to that. I tried so hard to find a way to fade the Spurs, and I got to the end of it and was just like, shit, can't. They're just going to win 62 games, and that's going to happen. The women's going to win MVP. I don't mind this at all. This is basically just like the season. You're getting plus 210 on the season goes as expected. That's a really good price. Like that's just a really good price.
00:32:22
Speaker 4: Last year, they like went out of their way to get him that DPOI too. And I was very surprised by that. And I can't tell if that was like to get him his first award or if they're like, or if that's a him thing.
00:32:34
Speaker 7: And he's like, I want to thing. Yeah. And you think they'll like, they'll bow to that again.
00:32:39
Speaker 1: You think?
00:32:39
Speaker 7: Yep.
00:32:40
Speaker 6: I think, I think that the Spurs have never encountered a player with the ambitions that he has. Yeah. Tim Duncan was elite and set an extremely high bar of success. And so did David Robinson. But they also weren't like, I want to be the biggest superstar in the world. And that's what women Yama wants. So, yeah, it's a little different. All right. Delera third pick.
00:33:05
Speaker 5: All right.
00:33:06
Speaker 7: So I'm going to do I am going to do an award.
00:33:09
Speaker 5: And the award that I'm going to do is an All-NBA award. And there's been two bets that I've been waffling with, one of which I think I gave out on one of the shows. So I'm not going to do that one. I'm going to do a different one. And it's going to be to be named to any All-NBA team. So we can go a little bit further down. And I think that this is a good, this would be like a good stepstool spot for Fiddle's bet.
00:33:32
Speaker 7: But Cooper Flag to be named to any All-NBA team at four to one.
00:33:36
Speaker 1: I like this.
00:33:37
Speaker 7: It's on DraftKings.
00:33:38
Speaker 5: I think that he is a player, again, that is going to be in a situation where I think he's going to play enough games. I think that the team might be bad. But I also think that he's going to get enough national attention and national looks where I think the stats are going to improve. He was excellent as a rookie. And I think he is uber talented. So I think with Dallas and just the structure of it, I think that Kyrie should help him to a degree. We'll see if that necessarily works out that way. So if Kyrie does help and the team's better, I think that that kind of boosts that situation. If Kyrie, if the match doesn't really work and the Mavericks aren't necessarily good, then he's going to get to put up a ton of empty stats, I think. And those numbers are going to pop. So I think a four to one, it's a way to bet on Cooper flag. And I think there's a number of guys that are listed here in like the all NBA realm at minus money. that like, I don't know if they're going to play enough games. I mean, you have like Halliburton's coming back from injury, Kevin Durant, you know, it just is getting older. Steph Curry continues in this games. Kawhi Leonard has rarely been eligible lately. You don't know what's going on with Jason Tatum. And we've seen from the guys at the top, whether it's Giannis or Luca in particular, like they seem to not necessarily always play enough games either. So I think there's plenty of opportunity for him to be a guy that steps up into that like upper echelon of the NBA and is anointed into an all NBA team, whether it's one, two or three.
00:35:08
Speaker 7: So at four to one, I like it for Cooper flag.
00:35:11
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:35:12
Speaker 6: I mean, look, I, I argued, I asked this question on, on locked on NBA and I meant it. I have Kevin Durant entering the season as the 15th best player in the league. And I said, at the end of the season, do you think that we will consider Cooper flag to be better than Kevin Durant at age 38? that's how high I think you have to be on Cooper flag.
00:35:30
Speaker 7: That's how good that gets.
00:35:32
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:35:32
Speaker 5: And I, and I think that with the positionless voting for all NBA, I think that actually helps him a lot too. Uh, because some of the players that are like priced around him are Paolo, Joel Embiid, Evan Mobley, Chet Holmgren, Jamal Murray. Um, like those are the guys right around him. And I think that you can make a case that he has a season and just catapults a lot of those guys where you know, MB is never going to play enough games. So, I mean, plus four 75 to me is nuts, but you know, I think that you could make the argument that flags better than Paolo right now. He's better than Mobley right now. I don't think the defense is as good as what chat does, but on the offensive side of the ball, he's certainly better than chat. So I think that that's four to one is a great price for flag to make an all NBA team.
00:36:14
Speaker 7: Okay.
00:36:16
Speaker 1: Can I ask a semantics question is all NBA. Do you guys consider that an award? I love the bet. I'm not, I'm not having a gripe, but I.
00:36:23
Speaker 6: And Brian already asked if we could use it and I told him yes. So it does qualify.
00:36:27
Speaker 1: No, I love it. I think it's great.
00:36:29
Speaker 6: Um, it is an accolade. We should have named it accolade, but I'm told that I use two fancy words.
00:36:35
Speaker 3: Uh, all right.
00:36:36
Speaker 6: Holiday player of the month or something. I, we would definitely bet on player of the month if we could fiddle.
00:36:43
Speaker 2: Oh my God.
00:36:43
Speaker 1: Love it. Your market, Carl Anthony towns. Um, Yeah. Okay. I'm going to go with a win total here. And there's a lot of teams that we've talked about that I feel like I could give good win totals for, but I think I have the make can make the most interesting case, uh, for OKC over 61 and a half wins this year. And I think that's like the, the one with the most interesting handicap to explain. Um, there seems to be a deflating of the top wind totals and an inflating of the bottom wind totals given tanking and NBA lottery reform changes, the 3-2-1 rules. And so there's this theory around the NBA circles that, okay, well, the best teams are not going to get as easy of wins against some of these bottom feeders. 17.5 point spreads are going to become 12.5, 11.5 point spreads, and you're going to get more dogs that win outright. I mean, a seven and a half point dog will still be equally as likely year over year versus seven and a half point dog. But, you know, we're not going to see as many 20 point spreads this year. I actually think it's still an 82 game season. Here's the handicap. It's still an 82 game season and you're going to have to take nights off somewhere. And these teams are still going to want to prioritize wins to stay above the relegation zone. And so I think if you're looking at a schedule spot where say you have OKC and then the Lakers in two more nights, I think OKC is going to get probably the most amount of best player on opposing teams sitting that night still. And a lot of them are just going to say, this is the one where we're not going to try and go overboard for the win. Let's focus on the Lakers tomorrow night or two nights from now. So I actually think that OKC is pseudo going to face a much easier schedule than expected. And we're going to get like the pseudo tank teams playing against OKC in the fact that they're not going to see as many star players playing against them. So I'm going to go with OKC over 61 and a half. I think they've gotten better year over year. Hopefully stay healthy. A lot of that is J-Dub. But the late addition of McCain obviously was fruitful in the playoffs. Morrow looks incredible. He looks like a baby between Hartenstein and Wemby. And so we'll see what he can do. And so I'm going to go with the OKC over 61 and a half. Easier schedule than expected.
00:39:03
Speaker 6: That's an obnoxiously good cap, Fiddle.
00:39:05
Speaker 7: It's so sharp.
00:39:07
Speaker 6: That was so sharp. I had not thought about that, that they're literally going to be like, we can rest them on this night because we're going to lose it anyway.
00:39:17
Speaker 4: Yeah.
00:39:18
Speaker 6: We can't risk losing against such a low, against such a low.
00:39:21
Speaker 1: We have Portland tomorrow night. Let's go for the Portland one and skip the OKC one.
00:39:26
Speaker 6: Fuck you, Fiddle. That's annoying.
00:39:27
Speaker 1: Good, right? I'm going to go add more to it.
00:39:30
Speaker 2: Get the knives out.
00:39:30
Speaker 6: I like it. I like it. Jim Turvey, your next bet.
00:39:35
Speaker 4: It has me shaking with my Spurs understock that I have, because that is a really good point.
00:39:39
Speaker 7: All right, I'm going to go to award. The smart thing would definitely be to do title, but I just kind of hate all.
00:39:44
Speaker 4: Of these teams for title. So I'm going to make you guys make me make a pick. So I'll do Will Hardy coach of the year, 12 to one. Talked about this on the pod with Matt a little bit. So I'll do a briefer thing.
00:39:56
Speaker 7: Favorites typically aren't great in coach of the year. It's kind of a weirdly priced market where you kind of want to sneak up on people. It's like one of those ones.
00:40:02
Speaker 4: But we have seen it two years ago. Dagnall came into the season as the favorite. He was kind of similar timelines where he kind of paid his dues. Everyone knew he was a very smart coach with a team about to pop. Shout out BK. I was looking at Jazz 45 plus for one of my long shots as well. All over the Jazz this year. I do really like them. This is my way to play them at a decent number. You can get 12 to 1 out there for Will Hardy.
00:40:25
Speaker 1: Coach of the year.
00:40:26
Speaker 4: He's kind of like the hipster, buzzy favorite. I don't think it will take much for them to be in the conversation for him to win this award.
00:40:32
Speaker 1: Yep. Good pick.
00:40:33
Speaker 6: I have no argument against this. This is a totally good pick. I think it's in particular, this doesn't require you to actually believe in the jazz. It just asks you, it requires you to believe if the jazz are better than expected, they're much better than expected. If they're much better than expected, will Hardy is likely to win coach of the year. And like that logic absolutely checks out. So, uh, I like that pick. Uh, I'm going to go chalk for my next one. I'm going cam boozer rookie of the year. Um, I thought about Ace Bailey. I really like the Ace Bailey six man of the year bet I've been throwing around. I really like that. I'm probably also going to bet Ace Bailey most improved player because I'm worried that what's going to happen is that he's actually going to take Peterson's spot or that he's going to start two and they're going to start Jackson at the five. There's all these ways in which that happens. So I will be on Ace Bailey. Back to Cam Boozer. Blood for the blood God. Cam Boozer is un-fucking-believable. He is already one of my five favorite players in the league, and he hasn't played a single minute. He is unreal. There is so much stuff that he does. And he is the type of player that busts all of our conventional, oh, this is the profile. You have to do blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Everybody that watches him is going to be like, oh, that's the best guy. That's the best guy by far. He looks so goddamn polished already. He is leaps and bounds above the polish of the other guys. And I've like, I watched Caleb Wilson and Darren Peterson in person. And I've watched A.J. DeBonta, and I've watched all these other guys. Yaxha Lindenborg is going to be great, but those guys at that draft range usually don't win. Cam Boozer is unreal right away. I do think that this Memphis Grizzlies team is set up to succeed. He is the type of big that Asala likes. Cam Boozer, plus 300, rookie of the year.
00:42:17
Speaker 7: Let's go.
00:42:19
Speaker 6: I will follow that up with my long shot, which is going to be, I am going to go with, Celtics Sixers Eastern Conference Finals 14-1.
00:42:31
Speaker 3: Wow.
00:42:36
Speaker 6: Joe is booing because I had to find a way to fade the Knicks in this podcast as I will be doing almost every single episode of the season. But yeah, look, I think Boston is going to win 55-ish games. I think that the Sixers are not going to win that many games. But I do think they're going to be a better team in the playoffs than they are I think there's a very good chance they're going to be able to manage Joel Embiid, who is lighter. I think the Sixers are going to struggle in the regular season. I'm on their win total under. They are the exact type of team that by the playoffs, it's like, oh, it took us a while, but we figured out who we are. We know how to do, we know how to build around each other. We know how to play together. Yes, there are injury concerns. I have injury concerns with everybody. The Thunder had injury concerns last year and it probably cost them another title. the Sixers still have an incredible collection of talent. Nick nurse is a championship level coach. They have the depth. They have the site. Like I know the center position is Jim's talked about this. I'm big on a Dem Bono. So like, I'm not as terrified of the center stuff as some other people are. And they've got some maneuverability in season to be able to go make a move. They have to, they can fiddle with Anthony Simons is contracted. They need to, sorry to mention fiddle, but like, I, I like this a lot. Celtic Sixers, 14 to one Eastern conference finals. I don't want the calves. I don't want a Southeast division team. I do not want the Knicks. I'm actively against the Knicks. Celtics, Sixers, Eastern Conference Finals, 14-1 is my long shot. Jim Turvey, back to you.
00:44:02
Speaker 7: All right. I don't think I can avoid it any longer.
00:44:03
Speaker 4: I'm going to do title and I'll partially explain why I was so rude to Fonseca with his first pick of the draft, because I did a little look this off season. And cause we think of, I think we think of this new era where there's all these non-repeat winners as like a little bit more chaotic.
00:44:19
Speaker 7: Like, like we see teams coming out of nowhere to win titles.
00:44:22
Speaker 4: The sneaky thing is that it actually hasn't really happened. It's kind of the noise of the regular season that makes it seem that way. If you look, go back and look at preseason odds for the title winners and since kind of the dynasty's era, you know, 2018. So 2019, Raptors had the fifth longest, Lakers second, Bucks second, Warriors third, Nuggets ninth is the longest, but then Celtics first, Thunder second, and Knicks even were fourth last year.
00:44:45
Speaker 7: So we only have one title team, even in this supposedly spread out era, outside of the top five in terms of odds at the start of the season.
00:44:54
Speaker 4: Now, maybe we're starting, we are starting to, you know, we got a fourth last season, we got ninth four years ago. Maybe there's some trend here. but basketball is still a sport where we kind of know at the start of season who the best teams are.
00:45:05
Speaker 7: I don't really love any of these.
00:45:07
Speaker 4: Joe, Joe got kind of the good way to play a thunder. I love, I absolutely love that play that Joe had. I'll go the other side of it. I guess I'm low on the Spurs in general, but I do think that I want to be on one of these short numbers. And I do think that they match up really well with the thunder, like that matchup. If they are healthy, I do think that the Spurs will win that series. So I think, Listen, I don't love the number of Spurs plus 270, but we really haven't actually transcended into an era where long shots are winning titles all the time. I had one like mid tier long shot that I liked even less than this. And I couldn't talk myself into Nick's repeat at nine to one seems short sixers. I get the Sixers' interest, but I just can't see Embiid staying healthy. And I love a dumb boner too, Matt, but I don't see them winning a title with a dumb boner. So I'm kind of just cornered into taking the Spurs at a number I don't really like, but that's how I got there, basically.
00:45:59
Speaker 6: What's your number on that one?
00:46:01
Speaker 7: 270.
00:46:03
Speaker 6: You're so sad.
00:46:04
Speaker 7: I'm so sad.
00:46:06
Speaker 6: I mean, I would try and talk you out of this if we had more time just because guys.
00:46:10
Speaker 7: I will say the other team. No, I won't say the other team. Some might want them, but there's a team in the 20s.
00:46:16
Speaker 6: Nobody's made it back-to-back finals. They haven't even just won the title. Nobody's made it back-to-back finals.
00:46:21
Speaker 7: No, I know. I don't like it. Joe's, I will say this. Joe's boost, I do like that.
00:46:27
Speaker 6: You just want to copy Joe's pick.
00:46:29
Speaker 7: Can I copy Joe's pick? Is that how drafting works? Jim's like, how did you not incept this one into my brain? All right.
00:46:39
Speaker 6: Biddle, you have long shot and title left. What do you want to go to?
00:46:43
Speaker 1: I'm going to do long shot first. And I'm debating between the joke one that I had was Moussa Diabate, most rebounds, 200 to one for Fonseca.
00:46:56
Speaker 8: I would not take that. He has too many games where he has like just eight rebounds. I mean, yeah, like that's the reason.
00:47:02
Speaker 1: The one I'm actually going to go with is Cleveland Cavaliers top seed, number one seed in the East.
00:47:16
Speaker 7: No way.
00:47:18
Speaker 1: No way.
00:47:18
Speaker 7: This was my literal number one pick for long shot. I was like, oh, there's 8 trillion long shots in the world. And this was what I wanted for the long shot. You have to be kidding me. I'll show you the sheet right now. Matt knows I drafted it.
00:47:28
Speaker 1: The win totals draft. And you gave me first pick, Matt. And I started out going Atlanta Hawks over. And Jim's like, what the hell? The same shit.
00:47:36
Speaker 7: How is this possible?
00:47:37
Speaker 2: I'm glad it's not available.
00:47:39
Speaker 3: It's about time somebody got sniped. That took too long.
00:47:43
Speaker 7: What's your number, Fiddle?
00:47:44
Speaker 6: I can look it up from the doc that Jim gave out earlier today, but what's your number on it?
00:47:49
Speaker 1: So I see plus 800 right now.
00:47:52
Speaker 7: This is 900.
00:47:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a plus 900 as well. He knows. There's even a 10-to-1 at our beloved DraftKings, so I'll take the 10-to-1 conference top seed for the Cleveland Cavaliers. And the handicap for this is.
00:48:09
Speaker 1: The depth between bigs and guards, like having two elite creators on ball and having two elite rim protectors, the fact that you just have some wiggle room of potential injury, whereas the teams in front of them are Sixers with some injury risk, the Knicks with some depth risk without losing Mitchell Robinson. And now it's like, who are they going to turn to with the bigs? And are they going to lose the possession battle more often? The Celtics obviously have their own injury risk. The Pistons not coming into the year with the best juju. And, you know, how much of that motivation ball can they keep up? Analytically speaking, the Cavaliers will be number one. It's just a matter of if they actually do it. So I think they have the depth and the pieces. And so I'll take Cavaliers number one seed coming in immediately with something to prove, given the way last season ended. that they're still in contention.
00:49:04
Speaker 6: I don't I said, I think I failed Jim on this on this bet earlier. So I can't I can't endorse it because I'm I'm anti. I'm anti hardened. I'm just kind of like tired of the whole like, well, Evan Mobley make a leap and uh, I like his own.
00:49:20
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:49:20
Speaker 6: The addition of weight of Watson was good. It's good value. It's good value because there's so much, there's so much steam on the Eastern, on the Atlantic division, just like whether it's, Oh, Nick's bing bong Nixon five or like, Oh, I'm going to, you know, LeBron sixers. Ooh, or the contrarian plays on Boston and Toronto. There's so much in the Atlantic, so I do kind of like this.
00:49:45
Speaker 2: Boston's never a contrarian play.
00:49:47
Speaker 6: Do what, Brian?
00:49:48
Speaker 2: Boston's never a contrarian play.
00:49:52
Speaker 3: All right.
00:49:53
Speaker 6: Fiddle locks that in. Joe, we're back to you.
00:49:56
Speaker 5: I'm going to grab my win total because I'm going to play with fire even after watching Jim get sniped on a long shot. I just have to live this way. I'm going to grab the Blazers under 41 and a half wins. I just am not like super convinced with this team. Jim and I like incepted each other, I think, or maybe Jim incepted me. I also bet them to be the five seed or the fifth, the finished fifth in the division at plus three 30, a little bit earlier today, log that in the app. That's now down to like plus two 30 or so. I just am not, I just don't really think that this team is, as good as this number kind of indicates. I think they have a lot of pieces coming in and I don't really know how they're going to fit. You have a new coach who's on like one of the weirdest coaching contracts you could possibly have.
00:50:45
Speaker 2: I just, I don't know.
00:50:46
Speaker 7: I don't like this team.
00:50:47
Speaker 5: I think that especially some of the things that Fiddle was talking about before in terms of bringing some of the, some of like the numbers together, bring like the wind totals kind of coming together and getting a little bit tighter, I think doesn't sit well for a Portland Trailblazers team that When I'm shooting a ton of free throws last season, and I think that Denny had a great season, but now you're introducing Damian Lillard off an injury, Ja Morant off of whatever. You're bringing in a lot of different scenarios to this Blazers team. I think under 41 and a half wins, I'm basically saying this is not a 500 team. And I know the Western conference isn't as good as it's been previously, but I think that overall across the league, we're going to see teams again, like trying in these games and Portland, I think did a really good job of trying last year. And I think that that's part of why they're a little bit overvalued in my opinion.
00:51:41
Speaker 1: Okay.
00:51:42
Speaker 6: I agree. I, the more I've watched the blazers, the more I'm kind of just like, it's pretty gross. I just think overall the wing depth isn't good. Clinging. I really like Donovan Klingin as a player, but there's offensive questions with him. Jaw looks terrible. There's all these kind of issues that are flowing along with it. All right, BK, back to you. Fourth pick, what do you like?
00:52:06
Speaker 3: Okay, I think now is the time to go. I don't think anyone's going to take my long shot, so I'll save that for last.
00:52:13
Speaker 1: I've got to take a title winner. I'm with Jim.
00:52:17
Speaker 3: I kind of just hate this market this year, but we've got to take somebody. I'll go with the Philadelphia 76ers, 10-1. They're the only team in the league with, when everyone is peaking, they're the only team in the league with four all-NBA-level players. And I get that this is the least... hipster play on in the universe. But if the 76ers pull it all together, they're the biggest threat to the New York Knicks. They're better than the Celtics, especially come playoff time. If that, if they gel, it's going to look really good. It'll be scary.
00:52:50
Speaker 1: Come playoff time.
00:52:51
Speaker 3: I don't really worry about LeBron chemistry. He knows where he is at this stage in his career. And I love the idea of point LeBron and, And then two energizer bunnies running around that keep the team at a decent seed in the regular season. I'm not worried about who misses time. There's all this talk about injury risk. They've insulated themselves. If Embiid misses, are we going to hate this team night tonight?
00:53:20
Speaker 7: No.
00:53:21
Speaker 3: If Jalen Brown misses, will we hate this team night tonight? Probably not. They'll be priced better. We'll probably bet them in those situations. I just think if the gels come playoff time, this team's going to be scary.
00:53:32
Speaker 7: Good.
00:53:32
Speaker 1: So, I'll take it.
00:53:34
Speaker 6: Hard to hate it. I mean, it's hard to hate it. It's a lot of talent. It's a lot of talent.
00:53:37
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:53:38
Speaker 6: I can understand it.
00:53:40
Speaker 1: I kind of hate it, but it's fine.
00:53:42
Speaker 6: For all NBA players. That's a strong word for BJ Edgecombe. Brian Paseka, you get back-to-back picks to wrap up your card. Who do you want for your fourth pick?
00:53:51
Speaker 2: I have to do award and long shot, right?
00:53:53
Speaker 1: Yes.
00:53:54
Speaker 3: All right. Award.
00:53:55
Speaker 1: I'm going to go chalk-ish.
00:53:57
Speaker 8: Luka MVP plus 600. I don't know how I feel about this Lakers team yet. But I don't think the three seed is out of reach at all in the Western Conference. I think they're in that fight for third place with Minnesota, Houston, whoever else after OKC and San Antonio. And people have been trying to give Luka Doncic MVP for most of this decade. He enters as a preseason favorite basically all the time. I think this year is the first year where he's not even in the top three heading into the season. in a lot of different places. But if this works out and if he's mostly healthy, if he's mostly healthy, they're going to win 50 games because Luka Doncic wins 50 games. Like he walks into 50 games when he plays enough games. So they're going to be in a conversation. You get the Lakers bump and the way that they're going to be able to play now, his numbers are going to be stupid. And maybe the voters have Shea fatigue, Jokic fatigue.
00:54:57
Speaker 1: I don't know.
00:54:58
Speaker 2: That could be part of it.
00:54:59
Speaker 8: But if this I'm not taking like an over on their win total, like I don't know what to do with that yet. But to me, it's like if this works out, Luca will be an MVP conversations. And maybe this is the year that he finally, finally, finally gets one because he's literally been a favorite to win this award every year.
00:55:17
Speaker 2: It's it's crazy.
00:55:19
Speaker 6: I think I bet him like five times and never, never cashed it. So I'm not betting it this year. So he'll cash it. That's sounds about right. From that perspective. I mean, you're right. Look, if the Lakers are good, if the Lakers went 50 plus, there will, I think one important thing to think about Luca, he's one of the few players that doesn't have to win more than women.
00:55:41
Speaker 5: Yama.
00:55:42
Speaker 2: Yes.
00:55:42
Speaker 6: Luca wins 50 plus. Then people will be like, Hmm.
00:55:49
Speaker 1: Okay. Sure.
00:55:49
Speaker 6: But Luca versus like, if you'll get to win 50 plus, it'll be like.
00:55:53
Speaker 2: Eh, and he'll be averaging 33, eight and nine or whatever it is.
00:55:56
Speaker 5: Yeah.
00:55:57
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:55:57
Speaker 6: Yeah, absolutely ridiculous.
00:56:00
Speaker 7: Okay.
00:56:00
Speaker 6: So you get to wrap up your card with your long shot. Fonseca, what do you want?
00:56:03
Speaker 8: There's like eight bets that I want here. I'll go on brand. This person is one of the favorites to win most improved player. I actually take them to make all NBA. Brandon Miller plus 2,500.
00:56:17
Speaker 1: Wow.
00:56:18
Speaker 8: Just in case, just in case they're really right about this lamello ball trade. I don't know what, like, I'm not where I'm at. I'm not where I was with the Hornets last year. I'm actually like kind of skittish on like, I don't know what's going to happen.
00:56:32
Speaker 2: Don't love that.
00:56:33
Speaker 8: There are already injuries heading into the season, but I was even saying before last year, Brandon Miller is the best player on this team. When they had LaMelo ball was saying that I think that's going to be the case long-term if he's healthy, that's a big if there. And I think in LaMelo ball being traded, people forget how much they had to manage his minutes.
00:56:53
Speaker 2: It was 28 minutes a game. He was very good as a playmaker. He was still chaotic.
00:56:59
Speaker 8: I think Charles Lee is going to get to coach the way that he wants to now have more structure. And I think maybe this is one step back to make two steps forward. But what if they're just still pretty good right now? Brandon Miller, I think, can be like a star. I think he's going to be in first time all star conversations if he's healthy. So why not take a stab at him to make all NBA?
00:57:24
Speaker 6: I'm just glad that you had that despite not being as high on them, you have still somehow managed to get yourself on some tiny corner of Hornets Island.
00:57:31
Speaker 2: That's just pretty, pretty good.
00:57:33
Speaker 7: You checking that every day.
00:57:35
Speaker 2: I didn't, I didn't make my, uh, bam depoy donation, uh, as part of the strap. So you should be thankful for that.
00:57:43
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:57:43
Speaker 6: I mean, yeah, yeah, that's that. That one might need some talk about at some point, uh, Fonseca's final card warriors under 38 and a half Luca MVP six to one, uh, Brandon Miller, All-NBA, 25-1. Pacers, 40-1 to win the title. And Celtics Division, plus 215. Kravitz, you've got a long shot pick. What do you want?
00:58:02
Speaker 3: I'm going to go with, if we're going last pick, let's go on brand. I've got to add a magic player to my card here. Let's go Franz Wagner, All-Defensive, NBA, first team, 100-1. Whoa. DeLair brought this up earlier. No Euro basketball for Franz Wagner in the summer. So he has put all of his energy and attention into being healthy, into gelling with his teammates. His brother is in Brooklyn now, and he has gone out of his way to develop a better relationship with Palo. That's not really a cap on the defense, but just an idea of how different this team could look if everyone stays healthy. But new coach in Sean Sweeney, I think they take real strides defensively. He's the best on ball defender on this team. And that includes Jalen Suggs, who's 15 to one to be all defensive first team. He's 15 to one and Franz is a hundred to one. That is a mispriced in the past. They've put Franz on the best offensive wing and the opposing team. I think they're just going to put them on the best ball handler all season. He was guarding James Harden the other night and they were last night in the preseason. Oh, of two, when guarded by Franz Wagner, he's a menace defensively. He doesn't get enough credit for it. And there's that space. If you look at the guys that are auto bids for first team defense, there's like four If you're generous. So there's a spot there for that fifth spot.
00:59:33
Speaker 1: I'm going to go with Franz. Okay.
00:59:35
Speaker 6: Franz, all defense.
00:59:38
Speaker 2: First team.
00:59:39
Speaker 1: First team.
00:59:39
Speaker 5: 101.
00:59:39
Speaker 1: I have to just.
00:59:41
Speaker 6: Put all defense because I don't have any more room for that long ass bet.
00:59:44
Speaker 4: You gave him a thousand to one, which is pretty sick.
00:59:47
Speaker 7: I might take it. Damn it.
00:59:52
Speaker 2: You could do number one ST.
00:59:55
Speaker 6: I do that a lot where I'm just typing out odds and it's just like.
01:00:00
Speaker 1: 0-0-0-0-0.
01:00:00
Speaker 6: Something about that. Some number of zeros in there.
01:00:03
Speaker 2: Okay.
01:00:04
Speaker 6: Franz, I will do all defense first team.
01:00:06
Speaker 8: Just use the combos and then get rid of them after.
01:00:10
Speaker 7: Okay.
01:00:11
Speaker 6: And then, all right. So, Kravis has got Jazz over 37.5. Wemby, MVP plus 210. Franz, all defense first team, 101. Sixers, 10-1 for the title. And Hornets, 9-1 for the division.
01:00:20
Speaker 1: Joe Dallara.
01:00:28
Speaker 6: You have a long shot. I can't wait to hear this shit.
01:00:34
Speaker 5: I was doing a lot of thinking about what teams might be playing competitive basketball as we're going along here. One of the teams I think is going to play a lot of competitive games. I do like one of their players that's been mentioned before for MVP. I think that maybe cuts into this a little bit. But one of the spots that I was thinking is there's obviously no LeBron James in LA anymore. And a play that I like, and I think a market that's a little bit fluid here, is Clutch Player of the Year. And the player that I'm going to actually go with is Austin Reeves to win Clutch Player of the Year at 70-1.
01:01:17
Speaker 7: I think the number is really, really long.
01:01:20
Speaker 5: And without LeBron there, I think it's just going to be two-man game with him and Luka nonstop. at least in those end of game scenarios. And obviously, you know, Luca could always just kind of take control of the basketball at the end of the game. But I think that the pricing here is worth a look at Austin Reeves at 70 to one, the dude is a bucket, he gets the free throw line. And he's also not afraid to just like keep the ball. And I think that that matters a little bit too. So for a long shot at 70 to one, I think you're getting a little bit of extra value on betting in that scenario, especially if Luka misses some time or whatever the situation is. We've really just seen this go to raw totals in terms of scoring in the clutch. And I think that this Lakers team, I think they're going to be good, but I'm not convinced that they're going to be great. And I don't really feel great about their defense. So I think there are going to be a lot of games where you're down the stretch and you're like, this is a tight game. And that's how you're going to rack up some more clutch opportunities. So I'm going to go with Austin Reeves at 70 to one to be clutch player of the year.
01:02:26
Speaker 1: Huh? Okay.
01:02:28
Speaker 6: All right. I was not expecting that. I thought I was getting set up for a Knicks thing.
01:02:32
Speaker 7: I thought about it.
01:02:34
Speaker 6: I thought about that did not happen. Joe's final card blazers under 41 and a half Cooper flag, all NBA four to one. Austin Reeves clutch 70 to one. OKC title and Shea 30 plus per game plus 450 and the Magic plus 275 for the Southeast division. Michael Fiddle, let's wrap up your card here. What do you want for your last pick?
01:03:00
Speaker 1: So my last pick is title and we've spoken ill will on this team, but I think that was mainly regular season focus. So now I'm going to go postseason focus and I actually think It might change. I'm not going to actually change one of my picks, but I'm almost regretting the Hawks division pick because I'm going to go Miami Heat NBA title 30-1. I thought about Giannis, rebounds leader. I thought about Giannis, MVP odds. The Heat have been in the play-in for four consecutive years. The thought that I had was, are they going to take the regular season really seriously to not be in the play-in? And then it's between the Hawks, the Heat, and the Magic to get two non-play-in spots. So I actually think the Heat are going to take this regular season really seriously, going to gel pretty quickly with Spolstra. And then you couldn't get me through this episode without doing some nerdy handicap. And so on the betting exchanges, this is 24 to 1, and there's a $ 0. 01 split in the $ 0. 06 yes, $ 0. 95 no split. So it's a 1% hold in that market where it's like when you go to the 30 to 1 odds, you're getting like probably close to 8 to 12% hold in there. So I think that this 24 to 1 is much closer to true odds. You go to some sharp offshores, they're 16 to 1. So just blindly from an EV perspective, this is going to be a good play on the Miami Heat. And give me Giannis and Bam and Spolstra. And I think they might be, it's never mattered in the past, but we always think it might matter this year. They're probably the top buyout candidate spot, landing spot in the NBA. They're probably the, hey, we could give you some good usage at a guard position. If there is some sort of intriguing veteran guard in a buyout position, the Miami Heat are going to be very, very likely to land that guy.
01:04:49
Speaker 2: Zach Levine.
01:04:51
Speaker 1: You know how exciting that would get me to get Zach Levine on this team and have a 30-1 on the Heat? Pretty good.
01:04:58
Speaker 6: Be pretty good. I mean, look, I kind of like it just from the perspective of... Again, if the Heat work, they're a title contender. If they go over, they're a title contender. And I do think it's going to be dangerous seeing Spolstra with the ability to problem-solve with Bam and Giannis in a defensive playoff series. Like, that's just.
01:05:19
Speaker 7: I think it's kind of crazy that the Raptors and them are priced so differently when like, they kind of seem like similar, like.
01:05:24
Speaker 4: Shoot the moon type of, of teams. Like, aren't the Raptors like 12 to one for the title right now?
01:05:31
Speaker 2: Uh, for sure.
01:05:34
Speaker 1: Kawhi is like 175 to one MVP. I mean, I got real close to that one.
01:05:38
Speaker 2: I don't get that.
01:05:39
Speaker 1: The Raptors are 25 to one.
01:05:41
Speaker 6: Oh, okay.
01:05:42
Speaker 7: They dropped. They had been really, they, they were like 12 to one.
01:05:45
Speaker 2: They were inside of 2000 for sure.
01:05:47
Speaker 6: Yeah, they were very trendy early on.
01:05:51
Speaker 7: Okay, that makes more sense.
01:05:53
Speaker 6: Well, I was talking high about them early, so I moved the market.
01:05:55
Speaker 7: You had to, obviously.
01:05:57
Speaker 6: You know, that's how that goes. It's me, big-time market mover. All right, to wrap up Fiddle's final board here. Thunder over 61.5. Cooper Flagg, most improved player at 80-1. The Cavs in the one seed, robbing Jim Turvey at 10-1. Heat, 30-1 to win the title, and Hawks plus 275 for the division. Jim Turvey from Rotogrinders, what's your final bet?
01:06:22
Speaker 7: Yeah, so obviously my preferred long shot is no longer there. I was looking at Luka MVP. Brian got that as well. I was debating... AJ, sixth man of the year. You've scared me off of that by giving me a D grade every time I bring it up. So I'm going to go with a really long shot. I'm kind of hoping I might steal it from you, Matt. I know we agreed on this before. I'm going to do Amin Thompson, most improved player of the year, 71. May as well have a nice, long, fun number here.
01:06:46
Speaker 4: I think if he gets into like the 24 points a game range, if he's a first time all-star player, There is a lot of room. I think he is a kind of buzzed about, well-liked young player. They've got Chip England there. If any sort of shooting progresses, he can add to the points pretty easily. The rebounds and assists are already pretty high. The assists might even come down with Fred VanVleet in town, but he and Marcus Smart are going to make for more easier opportunities for Amin Thompson. The minutes might come down a tiny bit, but I think there's so much ceiling to.
01:07:16
Speaker 7: His scoring just on if he gets an outside shot or if Fred VanVleet frees up more for him.
01:07:22
Speaker 4: And again, I think he's a well-liked player who was, I believe, the co-favorite with his brother to win this last year, now getting a 70-1 when he did make improvements last year, but not nearly to the ceiling that I think is there for this guy. There's the potential for this guy to be the most athletic player in the league if he isn't already there. Those are the type of guys who usually scoop up awards. So at 70-1, I'll make it my long shot here.
01:07:43
Speaker 6: I mean, I love this bet.
01:07:45
Speaker 5: I bet it.
01:07:46
Speaker 3: I gave it out.
01:07:47
Speaker 2: It's great.
01:07:48
Speaker 6: I think there's a very good chance. I think voters are not going to hold, you know, somebody was commenting on me like, well, men was really good last year. And I was like, yeah, but we have a habit of doing the whole, he was good last year, but nobody noticed. And then the next year he's just like a little bit better and winning the award. Like I, I don't think voters pay attention enough on the most improved player to previous. It's more about, you have to outperform the idea of what you were versus what you actually were. Like nobody's going through and doing, Oh, he actually is scoring better. eight points more than last year. It's about, well, I didn't think you were very good last year and now I think you're awesome. And that's a lot more flexible to be able to pull off. So I like that. Jim Turvey's final board Sixers under 50 and a half. Will Hardy coach of the year, 12 to one men, Thompson, most improved player, 70 to one, the Spurs to win the title plus two 70 and the Lakers minus one 20 to win the division. A little chalky, Jim. Well, little, little chalky this year.
01:08:49
Speaker 4: If I got AJ, it would have been really chalky at six to one. So I need that 70 to one in there to kind of boost, boost my numbers up.
01:08:54
Speaker 6: Yeah, for sure. Uh, my final selection is for the NBA title, uh, and it is going to be the Detroit Pistons 25 to one. That's going to be mine. Um, I have the Pistons at 58 wins. I have the Pistons as the one seat in the Eastern conference. I think the Detroit Pistons are going to be better. I think they added shooting. I think John Collins is a more impactful player at this point in his career than Tobias Harris at this point in his career. I think that, uh, though I do, it would be like, you tell me like you are betting on JB Bickerstaff to coach his way to the finals. And I start to be like, I don't feel so good, but, but you know what? Doc Rivers was actually kind of thought of as like a little bit of a joke coach until he got the 2008 Celtics. And this team is not the 2008 Celtics, but coaching reputations change very quickly. So I am going to go ahead and pay with the Pistons 25 to one as my final one. And my final card is going to be the Rockets over 47 and a half on the wind total. Cam Boozer plus 300. Boston Philadelphia in the Eastern Conference Finals at 14 to one. I'm countering that with a Pistons plus a 25 to one so that the Cavs are definitely winning the East. Rockets plus 650.
01:10:09
Speaker 2: For the division.
01:10:09
Speaker 6: And that's my final board. This is your final board. Let us know in the comments who you think won this draft. Because this is the whole board. You can catch it on social and on the card and on the video on YouTube. If you're listening on the podcast, you can go back through. I'm not going to read all 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. We have 30 picks. I'm not going to read all 30 here on the show. I will, however, tell you what our best bets are brought to you by DraftKings Sportsbooks. Because those are going to be our first overall bets for DraftKings Sportsbooks. Our official best bets presented by DraftKings. Brian Fonseca, the Indiana Pacers title at 40 to 1. Like that one. Brandon Kravitz, Utah Jazz over 37 and a half wins. Dallara, OKC Thunder title and SGA 30 plus in the specials tab at DK plus 450. Michael Fiddle, Cooper Flagg, most improved player at 80 to 1. Jim Turvey, the Sixers under 50 and a half wins. And for myself, the Houston Rockets, over 48.5 wins. Those are the first round picks from tonight's 2026 NBA Futures Draft Show presented by DraftKings. Don't forget to use code BUCKETS when signing up. DraftKings, giving out profit boosts every game day so you don't want to miss it. Download the DraftKings Sports app today. The crown is yours. We did it, and we did it in 1-12. We got through 30 picks in 1 hour and 12 minutes with six of us.
01:11:38
Speaker 3: Yeah!
01:11:38
Speaker 1: Yeah!
01:11:39
Speaker 6: Let's go. I hope you guys enjoyed it. I hope you guys had fun. I hope you guys enjoyed the bets. Let us know what you think about it. Hit us up on Twitter at action network HQ on Twitter. Appreciate you guys being with us. My thanks to all the guys for their hard work for prepping for this. This was not an easy task that I gave them and they did a phenomenal job. If you miss any of our other preseason episodes, they're available now in your podcast feed. We'll have an episode looking at nightly betting strategy. I got fiddle and Raheem Palmer and we're going to get, I mean, we're, The nerdiest of the nerddom as far as like chasing that tasty, tasty CLV will be available for you next in the feed. So make sure to check that out. Make sure you're subscribed on YouTube where those will be live and they'll be available where you listen to podcasts. So make sure to leave us a like and a five star review and rating. We really appreciate it. My thanks to David Payne for all of his extra help with this episode in particular, as well as all the episodes this week. Uh, the guys will be back with you next week as we start best bets every night of the NBA season, Monday, Sunday through Thursday, uh, for Brian, for Brandon Kravitz, for Brian Fonseca, for Joe DeLera and his mustache for Michael Fiddle and for Jim Turvey and all his radishes. We appreciate you guys being with us. We'll see you guys again next time. Until then, let's get buckets. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, Help is available 24-7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
