AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Katie Voinorovich | Strategic Farm Marketing

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Corn, soybeans, and wheat were all under pressure today.
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Come to think of it, livestocks were lower too.
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We're going to get into marketing and especially crop insurance today and pick up some details there and make sure that you are ready for some upcoming decisions.
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And we're going to need a good strategy given the economic setup right now.
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From behind the big blue, bodaceous microphone of Ag Bull, your pal, Davis Michelson, here for Ag Squawk in the afternoon.
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It's October 7 already, gang.
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We're deep.
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I don't know about deep.
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We're into October.
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We're for sure into October.
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Seven days anyway.
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And as I said, we're going to talk a little bit about the economic setup first here.
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I've got some info from Purdue as promised on yesterday's program.
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And then we've got uh Katie.
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Oh, I see.
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I knew I was going to pause here.
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I was, I was, I knew I would blow it.
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It's a confidence issue.
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Katie Voynarovich from Strategic Farm Marketing and Crop Insurance.
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Katie's going to walk us through where our heads need to be at on crop insurance and update us on, hey, you know, this data's coming up.
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I've got a lot of questions because I'm I I think I've I've been preaching all week that my knowledge runs pretty shallow on crop insurance.
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So maybe I can get a little crop insurance 101.
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And, you know, you might just find it it benefits you as well, no matter where you're at, on the spectrum of understanding when it comes to crop insurance as part of your marketing plan in this potentially troublesome and volatile year.
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I hope you're doing well today.
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We're we're at midweek here.
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We're at midweek, you know, hump day.
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It's it's a good day.
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Good day in Kansas City.
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I can't quite see my temperature right now, but it's warm and sunny.
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I know that we've we've been anxious to get out there and harvest.
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Well, by we, I mean you all have been anxious to get out and harvest in some areas where it's just been too doggone wet.
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I do want to talk to Katie about current conditions.
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Are combines rolling in her area?
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She's up around Champaign, if I have my notes correct here.
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So lots to talk about with Katie today from Strategic Farm Marketing.
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First of all, may I direct you to AgBull.com.
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That's our premium side there, where we've got a whole bunch of services that you would be privy to.
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And I was just talking to Mr.
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Tommy Grasafi today.
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The Bluetooth speakers are available and ready for send out.
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That's if you sign up for a one-year subscription.
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250 big ones for an entire year of more information than you know what to do with.
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And that does include two months free as well when you sign up for an entire year.
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And we'll send you that Bluetooth speaker that you can clip on your belt, put in your combine, put in the toolbox, whatever you want to do with it.
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That way you can keep in touch with the cell phones and you know, whatever you want to want to listen to on there.
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Hopefully, uh, you know, pick up Jed's show in the morning as you're getting started.
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And then uh, you know, let me take you through your afternoon, and then whatever else you want to want to have, you can pump it right through your Bluetooth speaker, set it right beside your AM radio in the barn, in the in the cab, whatever, and you'll be fully, fully covered on all the glorious forms of media.
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All right, let's get to the numbers here.
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We'll begin with ethanol production.
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Ethanol production was 4.6% higher in the report week ended October 2nd.
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Ethanol stocks declined, just one half of one percentage point to 23.7 million barrels, a slim decline in stocks.
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But I'll take just about any decline that the market wants to give us.
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That means ethanol's moving out the door, and that spells more demand, and uh that's uh rarely a bad thing, if ever.
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Other energy news.
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U.S.
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crude supplies fell sharply during the report week.
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Gasoline inventories increased meekly, but did best expectations for a sharp drawdown.
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Distilled inventories were slightly lower, but better than analyst expectations.
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Meanwhile, refinery utilization increased two-tenths of one percent.
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I get to gotta get onto this because I don't know.
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I may need to talk to Weismeier about this because I kind of don't get it.
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But we'll go here.
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President Donald Trump has signed an executive order temporarily expanding access to tax-exempt Ruby Red Dyed Diesel in an effort to ease soaring fuel costs for farmers and truckers.
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The order directs the Treasury Department to defer certain federal diesel tax payments through December 31 and provide penalty relief for dyed diesel used on highways during that period.
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Energy experts and economists question, and I have the same question, how much the move will actually help farmers, warning that infrastructure for distributing ruby red diesel is limited.
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Increased demand, they say, could also strain supplies and potentially push prices higher for farmers.
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That would seem to have the opposite effect than what I think the uh the president is hoping for.
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Meanwhile, American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duval said the move could provide relief for farmers during harvest when fuel costs are a significant expense.
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So who knows?
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Who knows?
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We'll hope for the best here.
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Let's get to the tail of the ticker and begin our markets conversation.
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Corn, soybeans, and wheat were lower after strengthening overnight.
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All three bounced from session lows.
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Well, nah, bounced really isn't quite right.
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All three came off early session lows in the first hour of day trade, although winter wheat futures were still double digits lower.
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Livestock futures were lower as well, with lean hogs leading declines within the first hour of trade this morning.
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Rounding into the lunch hour, pressure had increased on corn and winter wheat futures, and November soybeans dipped below$13.
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Lean hogs continued to lead the livestocks lower.
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Let's get over to the settlements where December corn squeaked out a win.
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I'm calling it a win.
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Anything with a five on the end of it, 502 at settlement, down six cents all told on the day.
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November soybeans down five and a half cents today, twelve ninety-seven and one half.
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Soybean meal was higher.
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I'm calling soybean oil sharply lower, meanwhile.
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Over to your wheats.
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I've got December Chicago wheat 686 and a half, down 17 and three quarters.
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Ouch.
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Kansas City wheat down 17 and 3 quarters as well in the December 7.38 and 12.
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And clicking my live stocks tab.
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I'm going to stick with the Octobers a little bit here.
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I've got October feeder cattle down$2.35 at$338.15.
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Here's your October fat cattle up 37 and 1.5 cents,$221.60.
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But the dease, I feel like, tells the story better because everybody else is lower as you get further out into the deferred.
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December fat cattle down 32.5, 223.77 and 12.
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And then over to the lean hogs, your uh October contract down a buck, 76.92 and a half.
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It gets worse the further out you go, down a dollar twenty-seven and one half in the December hogs 69 and 10 at settlement.
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All right.
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And you know what?
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Before we bring in Katie, uh, because I want to make sure that we get this out there, because I think it's going to impress itself upon our conversation.
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I want to talk about the Purdue numbers.
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First of all, a word for our sponsors.
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Thanks to Plus 500.
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My team and I all use Plus500 T4 software for real-time quotes and a host of dandy features, futures, options, what have you.
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Plus 500 trust plus 500.
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Thanks, gang.
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Over at plus 500.
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Okay.
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This from Purdue.
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Purdue University's Ag Economy Barometer declined sharply from the previous month, with the index of current conditions dropping a massive 18 points month on month.
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According to that report, quote, higher input costs chosen by a record 52% of respondents remained the biggest concern.
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Moreover, 54% of respondents indicated that high input costs were the main factor limiting improvement in their farm's financial situation.
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The report continues on a positive note.
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The long-term farmland values expectations index reached a new high.
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And you can see that sharp fall-off there on the right of your screen.
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That's the overall barometer down from a reading of 135 in the previous month to 123.
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That's a uh that's a that's a pretty decent fall-off, and once again, driven mostly by opinions about current conditions.
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Now, my next chart here is is also notable.
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The ratio of respondents who believe the country is headed in the right direction flipped to negative after a long, slow decline.
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48% said they believe the nation is on the right track, while 52% now believe we are headed in the wrong direction.
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And as as you can see, you know, clear back when was that?
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Uh July of 2025.
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We had 74% of survey respondents to produce Ag Economy Barometer who believed that uh the nation was headed in the right direction.
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And it kind of waffled a little bit, but had pr held pretty good and has been kind of declining.
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And really, what's been happening is the downside has been coming up, and finally this month the negative sentiments have taken over whether or not this country is headed in the right direction.
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I'm sure that there were a lot of opinions and a lot of reasons why people chose right direction or wrong direction in that, but it does seem significant, especially coupled with the sharp fall-off in sentiments.
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Seems quite significant now that there are more people feeling negative about the the direction of the United States than those feeling positive about it.
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Maybe we can talk to Katie about that.
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Let me bring in Katie Voynorovich from Strategic Farm Marketing and Crop Insurance.
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Katie Voynorovich.
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Voynorovich.
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I've been saying that all morning and I still kind of stumbled on it just a little bit.
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Thank you so much for being here.
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How are you today?
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Yeah, I'm doing great.
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Thank you so much for having me.
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I know, I know my last name's kind of tough to pronounce, so I appreciate the uh the effort for it.
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Well, it's really not.
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It's it but it it's it's just hard to read, I guess.
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I don't know for me for sure.
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I'll give you that.
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It's been a long, long Wednesday already, Katie.
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You're from Strategic Farm Marketing and Crop Insurance out in uh Champaign.
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Is that right?
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You're in the Champaign area?
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Yep, I live in the Champagne area and yeah, born and raised here.
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So yeah.
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Excellent, excellent.
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Talk to us about your background.
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What led up to you sitting in front of a camera with me today?
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Great question.
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So, our agency here, we specialize in crop insurance, but we also do grain marketing and commodity brokerage.
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So I I've kind of grown up in this industry.
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Uh my parents actually own our uh company here.
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So I've been a part of it for a long time and then had uh went away, uh, went and went to business school, studied supply chain management and marketing, worked for Unilever for several years, moved around the country quite a bit, and ultimately decided a few years ago to come back and kind of figure out what this is all about here, and really have been able to kind of dig my feet in on some of the analytical side, some of the math behind these crop insurance products.
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Fortunately, but unfortunately, is getting much more complicated.
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There's a lot of really good and positive things that are happening with crop insurance, a lot of great ways that we can help protect producers, but it does come with complications that there's a lot of these improvements that have been made specifically to this ARC and PLC program that we'll talk a little bit more about today, that actually have really bolstered some of these support systems that producers are able to have and be able to use.
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However, it is kind of complex with the different timings and the different a lot of gears that are moving at once.
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So it's hard to be able to piece it all together.
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That's really been my role with our agency right now is building our sales tools, building our analytic software to be able to analyze all these different options.
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I uh on my on my show, I often talk to either farmers or well, people in ag who have either left the farm and come back, or they've lamented that more young folks aren't staying on the farm or at least coming back after college.
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Now you're you're with uh a crop insurance and marketing firm, but I I think we could call that your quote unquote family farm.
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Yes.
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Did you did you always intend to come back and and work at the farm?
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Or I didn't was it a long road?
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No, I do think it's a long road.
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I think that uh naturally, I think as anyone does when you see your parents go through that just it's their thing.
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It feels like it's their a baby, and so you feel like you want to have your own thing that's become yours, but really kind of talking through with both my parents about some of the opportunities that we have to be able to educate producers, to be able to really help explain how to make some of these really complicated things get down to something that's really simple.
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It really feels like a great opportunity to do something that makes a difference for actual real life people that are, you know, figuring this out day to day.
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So I feel like we've gotten a lot of, I've gotten a ton of fulfillment out of being able to kind of break down some of these concepts, be able to find ways to make these complicated things much more simple and much more tangible for people to be informed about stuff that's out there.
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Because I think that our biggest sentiment, too, is for a lot of our, you know, farmers, they just want to farm.
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Our kind of job is to be able to find all these different things that they need to know, be able to, you know, put it out there in something that's tangible, and then being able to provide the coverage where it's needed.
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So if you studied supply chain management, I have here, I stole this from the website here, dual degree, supply chain management and marketing.
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Supply chain management just on its own as a as a pursuit, as a study, feels like there's a lot of irons in the fire, a lot of moving parts in all of that.
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Do you feel like that maybe helped you at least prepare your brain for all of the moving parts and the minutiae that involves crop insurance and marketing?
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Yeah, very much so.
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I know I had uh specifically worked my work in Bethunile, was more kind of in consumer packaged goods.
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So I actually worked in several different factories, which I actually loved.
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But, you know, coming from more of the manufacturing background of things, there's a lot going on all the time.
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Lines are running, lines are going down, you have to move personnel, be able to kind of manage the floor.
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And so I do think that there's a lot of things that do actually feel like they correlate to this industry, of just again, let this show your point, the irons and the fire, keeping the logistics straight about what's going on, what do we triage, and those kind of things.
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But yeah, I kind of came about this whole industry in a little bit of a roundabout way, but kind of back to the base of yeah, what I know.
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Yeah.
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Been there since 2020, I have here in uh in my notes.
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That's excellent.
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So you've you've got some years under your belt there in the biz.
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Let's uh let's back up just a little bit, get our boots in the dirt.
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You're out in Illinois in the Champaign areas we've discussed.
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Have you noticed or combines rolling out there?
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What's the story?
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Definitely, yep.
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So progress is for sure underway.
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I know that there's there was a lot of movement, I guess, on the corn initially.
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People have kind of switched over to beans for the most part to be able to get more progress done there.
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We did see quite a bit of wind issues in our area, so I think a lot of people were trying to get some of that that kind of problematic corn going on that first.
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So, anyway, so we're still kind of we're still making moves.
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I know we're trying to be able to get as much done as possible before we have some of these storms come through.
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So, yes, things are definitely on the move here.
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Excellent, excellent.
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I'm glad to hear that.
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You know, I guess I just have a question.
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The let me ask you the this question I have after this.
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Purdue University found sentiments are in decline.
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And I just wonder, and maybe you don't maybe you don't have anything to say about this, but you know, around the campfire there, I know how it is.
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You're you're kind of you're in the stream.
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It sounds like people are super bummed out about current conditions right now in agriculture.
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What are you hearing from your folks that that you work with or that are in your orbit about the general attitude out there among producers?
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Yeah, I mean, I think it's kind of a double-edged sword because I think that the recent price rallies have kind of, you know, been able to give some wind in the sales a little bit.
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But I do think the diesel price really is a bit of a bummer from where producers are coming from.
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That feels very top of mind just working through harvest right now.
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So I definitely think that's where a lot of that stems from.
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I do think it is kind of interesting to kind of note too.
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I know the chart that you had showed showed that July of 2025 as really positive in sentiment.
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And one of the things that, you know, with these ARC and PLC programs that we're talking about today, so many of the changes that were made to these ARC and PLC plans were out of that one big beautiful bill.
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So a lot of things got bolstered, but we don't actually see the effects to producers until literally today, basically.
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They're getting payments for some of those changes that were positively made in 2025.
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And because of the kind of year lag that they need, just the way these programs work, those are gonna come into effect now.
00:17:47.809 --> 00:17:51.969
So if anything, I hope this is a bit of good news to share on that front.
00:17:52.129 --> 00:18:06.689
And I do think that some of that sentiment of you know, the positivity around the one big beautiful bill and what that did for agriculture, we're finally going to be able to see that kind of trickling into actual, you know, dollars for producers to be able to grasp onto.
00:18:07.009 --> 00:18:16.609
Well, because I would imagine it's a frustrating time to begin with, just because of the weather, because of inputs prices, because of, because of, because of the list goes on and on.
00:18:16.769 --> 00:18:26.769
And then you add what you've already referred to as kind of a a pretty complicated, tedious crop insurance realm to add to that.
00:18:27.169 --> 00:18:31.649
Do you do you find uh people get frustrated trying to figure out their crop insurance?
00:18:31.969 --> 00:18:32.769
Oh, certainly.
00:18:32.929 --> 00:18:36.289
I think that there are one just so many different types of plans out there.
00:18:36.449 --> 00:18:38.609
There's so many different companies that are out there.
00:18:38.769 --> 00:18:50.369
So again, being able to kind of for one person to figure out all of this mess takes really your ear to the ground to make sure that you know what's going on, you know what products are out there, you know what you need to be asking for.
00:18:50.529 --> 00:19:02.049
And that's what our kind of role here at Strategic Farm Marketing is meant to do is be able to bring you like what are the top five strategies, or you know, what do we need to be keeping our eye on to be able to figure out what's the best?
00:19:02.209 --> 00:19:10.849
Everyone has a little bit of different priorities, different things that they're trying to protect, just based on their situation, based on their geographic landscape of where their fields are.
00:19:11.009 --> 00:19:29.409
And so I think it's a different answer for a lot of different people, but it takes a lot of analysis, to be honest, to be able to go through and figure out what happens if, you know, we have high prices, what happens if we have low prices, what happens with yield if we have, you know, losses, or if we do really well, but the price is low, you know, what does that strategy look like for me?
00:19:29.490 --> 00:19:31.969
And how do we protect against the worst case scenario?
00:19:32.209 --> 00:19:45.250
So, yes, we often find people that are overwhelmed by just the amount of options, because there truly are a ton of different options, but trying to take all of that and kind of funnel it down into something that's actionable is our goal.
00:19:45.569 --> 00:19:46.929
You know, I could see a situation.
00:19:47.009 --> 00:19:48.529
I'm a simple man, Katie.
00:19:48.929 --> 00:19:55.649
If you haven't picked that up yet, sometimes just too many options can seem overwhelming to me, too.
00:19:55.730 --> 00:20:05.969
So it feels like part of what you you try to offer the customer is okay, maybe we don't need to worry so much about all of these over here.
00:20:06.129 --> 00:20:08.769
Let's talk about these couple of options.
00:20:08.929 --> 00:20:09.969
Is that fair to say?
00:20:10.289 --> 00:20:11.089
Yeah, absolutely.
00:20:11.169 --> 00:20:27.089
And I think it's it's that balance between trying to make it a simple ABC decision, um, but then also being able to have faith in the fact that we've run the analysis, that we have really looked at all these different options, asked the appropriate questions, so we are narrowing them down to the proper options.
00:20:27.250 --> 00:20:37.329
So it is a balance between trying to signal that we are content experts with the whole bit of it, but obviously at the end of the day, that we need to be able to take it down.
00:20:37.409 --> 00:20:39.409
We can't just talk about what-ifs all day.
00:20:39.490 --> 00:20:41.889
We need to figure out what strategy is going to work best for us.
00:20:42.209 --> 00:20:45.490
Okay, I'm gonna ease myself into this end of the conversation.
00:20:45.730 --> 00:20:49.569
Be gentle with me, but I guess I would start here.
00:20:49.809 --> 00:20:53.730
Our own Jim Weismeyer was talking about the October 1st payments coming out.
00:20:53.889 --> 00:21:11.409
October assistance, he said, could strengthen working capital, help repay operating loans, and ease pressure during harvest, but the size of that relief will vary considerably, and a payment covering the previous crop year cannot by itself resolve current production cost pressures.
00:21:11.649 --> 00:21:12.449
Let's start here.
00:21:12.529 --> 00:21:13.969
You mentioned the October payments.
00:21:14.049 --> 00:21:15.969
Are they are they hitting mailboxes?
00:21:16.049 --> 00:21:17.169
Are they on schedule?
00:21:17.329 --> 00:21:18.929
How is all of that shaping up?
00:21:19.169 --> 00:21:21.329
Yes, as far as I'm aware, they are on schedule.
00:21:21.490 --> 00:21:24.609
Last year, when we were dealing with this, we had a government shutdown to worry with.
00:21:24.769 --> 00:21:27.969
So we don't have that to worry about this year, which is really positive.
00:21:28.209 --> 00:21:31.649
They have signaled that they want to make the payment shortly after October 1st.
00:21:31.730 --> 00:21:36.449
We've been hearing the end of this week is when that's hopefully supposed to actually hit bank accounts.
00:21:36.609 --> 00:21:43.969
So I haven't heard of anyone actually getting, you know, officially their payment, but we're getting awful close to be able to get those payments covered.
00:21:44.129 --> 00:21:49.329
So these would be for the 2025, this ARC and PLC to kind of back up a little bit.
00:21:49.490 --> 00:21:59.569
So the ARC program that's agricultural risk coverage program and PLC, which is price loss program, those are both through offered through FSA.
00:21:59.969 --> 00:22:03.409
So a producer can go ahead and make this the decision of what they want to do.
00:22:03.490 --> 00:22:07.250
They can make the choice between ARC or PLC by farm number.
00:22:07.409 --> 00:22:08.609
Typically, a lot of people choose.
00:22:09.009 --> 00:22:10.929
you know, one for all of their farm numbers.
00:22:11.169 --> 00:22:16.369
And so the difference with this usually, usually we make this decision March 15th.
00:22:16.529 --> 00:22:18.929
We go kind of through the whole entire crop year.
00:22:19.009 --> 00:22:24.769
And then the end of or kind of this beginning part of October of the next year is when those payments will come through.
00:22:24.929 --> 00:22:26.529
2025 is different.
00:22:26.689 --> 00:22:39.009
Because they made all of these one big beautiful bill increases to some of these different programs, they increased our reference prices, meaning that our price floors for this price lock coverage option are higher than they were before.
00:22:39.169 --> 00:22:45.009
Some of the ARC program opportunities, they're basically getting paid at a higher factor than they did before.
00:22:45.250 --> 00:22:49.649
So they all these bolstered opportunities with ARC and PLC have come through.
00:22:49.730 --> 00:22:56.529
And because that those changes were made after the election period for 2025 you're getting the better of the two automatically.
00:22:56.769 --> 00:23:00.049
Doesn't matter which one you picked between ARC or PLC.
00:23:00.289 --> 00:23:01.809
So that's really positive, right?
00:23:01.969 --> 00:23:06.529
So then the the big difference between the two PLC that's really that price floor coverage.
00:23:06.689 --> 00:23:09.649
You have that that floor underneath you and you can't go lower.
00:23:09.889 --> 00:23:12.129
So this is based on a market year average.
00:23:12.289 --> 00:23:20.609
So it's based off of September of 2025 till October 30 August 31st of this year of 2026.
00:23:20.689 --> 00:23:23.169
So it's based off of actual farmer sales during that time.
00:23:23.329 --> 00:23:25.490
That's what we're comparing these price levels to.
00:23:26.529 --> 00:23:34.289
So for our effective reference prices then for corn that's 442 for beans that's 1071 and then for wheat that's 635.
00:23:34.449 --> 00:23:38.849
So if we're below those levels that's where that PLC program kicks in.
00:23:39.649 --> 00:23:41.569
Arc on the other hand oh sorry go ahead.
00:23:41.809 --> 00:23:45.569
I was going to say it's it's been a while since we saw a 10 handle on beans, hasn't it?
00:23:45.809 --> 00:23:49.490
Yeah it has but then it's all based on actual farmer sales during that time period.
00:23:49.649 --> 00:23:55.329
So actually where we ended up was at 1050 for that time between 25 and 26 during that time.
00:23:55.569 --> 00:23:55.730
Okay.
00:23:56.129 --> 00:23:59.969
For corn it was 415 and then for wheat it was 506.
00:24:00.049 --> 00:24:04.849
So we're actually considerably below or you know decently below those price for values.
00:24:04.929 --> 00:24:07.889
So actually PLC then will just kick in for everybody.
00:24:08.049 --> 00:24:14.529
Everyone should at the very least receive a PLC payment or you know that's where we are starting our initial payment period.
00:24:14.769 --> 00:24:15.089
Right.
00:24:15.409 --> 00:24:19.409
And then ARC on the other hand is based off of a specific revenue guarantee.
00:24:19.569 --> 00:24:40.529
So they have this Olympic average benchmark which is basically taking the last five years with the lag year of county data of what how that county yielded taking that Olympic average so throwing out the high throwing out the low averaging the middle three that's how they come up with that number and they take 90% of that and that's your revenue guarantee for that county.
00:24:40.609 --> 00:24:48.369
So if yields came in pretty low for 2025 we might actually see where ARC is surpassing the payment for PLC in that situation.
00:24:48.529 --> 00:24:58.449
But typically that really has to be you know both price loss and a yield loss to go ahead and kick in that ARC payment to be significantly more than what the PLC payment would be.
00:24:58.849 --> 00:24:59.969
But we did have that happen.
00:25:00.049 --> 00:25:07.329
There's many counties that we have around here that did see an ARC payment that would surpass what that PLC payment would be.
00:25:07.490 --> 00:25:13.490
So again it's going to vary by county where we're at whether that ARC or PLC is going to come in you know stronger than others.
00:25:13.649 --> 00:25:21.809
But at least from around here and I, you know, I know geographically there's a lot of spread it depends on what people's PLC yields are and those kind of things.
00:25:22.129 --> 00:25:30.209
But at the very least for corn it should be around that$40 ish dollar payment per baseacre and then around that$10 ish dollars for beans.
00:25:30.289 --> 00:25:36.929
But again depending on that county performance and how they did that ARC payment could surpass those values that we have for PLC.
00:25:37.009 --> 00:25:48.049
So long story short if you're enrolled in ARC or PLC there should be a payment for you for most situations in most cases for 2025 and that's what's supposed to be coming here in really just a few days.
00:25:48.689 --> 00:26:14.049
Yeah very good you mentioned I don't even know if it's possible but you did mention that most producers go with ARC or plc on the entirety of their acreage is it is it possible to do kind of a kind of a mix so you you can hit it on on one end or the other or I guess ideally both ends.
00:26:14.289 --> 00:26:20.369
Mm-hmm yes it absolutely is 2025 again is unique with just the way that this all happened and you're getting the higher of the two anyway.
00:26:20.449 --> 00:26:25.089
So even if you were to have done that strategy you're getting the best situation that you possibly could.
00:26:25.329 --> 00:26:29.089
Okay for 2026 however that's a real real question.
00:26:29.329 --> 00:26:41.889
So for 2026 again usually we have to decide by March 15th they delayed some of these payments or these election periods I should say because of some of the SDRP payments and those kind of things that were on the FSA's plate already.
00:26:42.049 --> 00:26:48.209
So for 2026 now kind of scooching forward ahead of year we have to decide by December 11th.
00:26:48.449 --> 00:26:55.409
And when I say you have to decide you have to decide typically you're able to kind of carry over election from the previous year.
00:26:55.490 --> 00:26:59.809
And so say something happens you didn't get in there you just take whatever you had last year.
00:26:59.969 --> 00:27:01.730
For 2026 that's different.
00:27:01.969 --> 00:27:05.889
Because they have some of these changes that they made they need producers to sign off again.
00:27:06.049 --> 00:27:12.209
So if you don't go in and make your election for 2026 you're forfeiting those payments entirely for that crop year.
00:27:12.369 --> 00:27:20.369
So if there's nothing else you can gather definitely go to your FSA office before December 11th to make your FSA election for 2026.
00:27:20.769 --> 00:27:28.049
But December 11 this year right this year yep this year for that 2026 period typically that would have been in March.
00:27:28.129 --> 00:27:50.209
Yeah so what's different about the fact that we have all these months now to be able to decide is really the benefit of hindsight usually in March we have no idea what's going on with you know yields we're really taking a stab at what we think is the best thing for our buck at that time right with just what we know what we have market bias for or making our best educated guess.
00:27:50.369 --> 00:28:00.129
But now when we're in this December period we have this really great opportunity to be able to actually do the math and really be able to determine which would be better.
00:28:00.289 --> 00:28:08.849
And this just totally where we can talk about changing our election by that farm number specifically for PLC again those those price levels are going to stay the same.
00:28:08.929 --> 00:28:14.049
So 442 for corn 1071 for beans and 635 for wheat.
00:28:14.289 --> 00:28:18.049
Arguably to your point we're kind of far off of those levels right now.
00:28:18.209 --> 00:28:23.329
We weren't for 2025 that during that you know averaging period for that pricing window.
00:28:23.490 --> 00:28:27.089
But now we're only starting it our pricing window here in September.
00:28:27.169 --> 00:28:32.529
So we're saying that we're off of it now we still have till August of next year to be able to see what happens.
00:28:32.609 --> 00:28:43.009
So never say never you know hopefully that's not where we're at PLC may look more attractive just as we get to December if something drastic were to change with our prices and we were to go down.
00:28:43.250 --> 00:28:47.250
However, right now it's feeling like ARC would be probably the best bet.
00:28:47.329 --> 00:29:01.889
There's a lot of places that did see yield issues and there's a lot of places that have one off you know yield concerns we do have kind of a better shot then if we have yields that are down to be able to get paid for ARC than we would for PLC.
00:29:02.209 --> 00:29:11.169
So having this you know opportunity to evaluate what our yields are and specifically what our yields are compared to the county is really integral this year for 2026.
00:29:11.409 --> 00:29:11.809
Yeah.
00:29:12.129 --> 00:29:39.329
Because we'll have and I don't know if you've heard any I have not yet heard any yield monitor data yet but man we have been waiting on on that and I know if my old stomp on grounds back in central Iowa we're not going to have yield data that we can count on for a while yet they they I don't know if they're even rolling still we've had some dry weather but it uh if if we have the benefit of that we can kind of look backward and then make our elections in December.
00:29:39.409 --> 00:29:40.929
That's that's actually not bad.
00:29:41.169 --> 00:29:56.609
Yeah absolutely and so that's kind of a benefit now I mean right at the beginning of this October period there's still a lot of harvesting yet to do we still don't necessarily know our full picture but once we get closer to December we really should we should have enough of the picture to be able to kind of make some of these more educated guesses.
00:29:56.849 --> 00:30:06.529
The really big thing I think to consider for our for 2026, you know, I keep saying ARC and generally we always mean ARC county that's typically always what people are taking.
00:30:06.689 --> 00:30:10.769
However there is a separate option called ARC IC or ARC individual.
00:30:11.009 --> 00:30:22.689
So the real difference between the two um they really perform pretty similarly in terms of being able to make sure that you have you know a yield or price loss that's below this kind of benchmark revenue piece of it.
00:30:22.929 --> 00:30:36.369
But what we what's the difference really in this kind of process is the ARC I see the ARC individual product that's getting paid on a 65% factor versus the ARC that is getting paid on like an 85% of your base acres factor.
00:30:36.529 --> 00:30:41.329
So if we're making this decision in March, you take the one with the higher factor and you roll with it.
00:30:41.569 --> 00:30:52.689
But the big difference then especially when we know yields now if we feel like our yields are significantly different than the county that's where we'd want to look at some of those ARC individual opportunities.
00:30:52.849 --> 00:31:31.409
So specifically thinking of you know some of our producers around this area that had wind damage, if they had hail damage, we're hearing a lot of toxin pressures or quality issues then throughout the field if there's any sort of situation that you feel like you know one, you know again this is farm number by farm number that they can make this decision on, if they feel like that farm number is performing poorly compared to the county, it's worth doing this study to figure out then even though it's a lower payment factor, if you have a higher chance of getting paid just because your yield is down for whatever reason than the county would be, you know, that's that's the point that we need to consider and we really do need to think about it farm number by farm number.
00:31:31.569 --> 00:31:34.449
So I know we'll get through harvest and we'll get through all this kind of stuff.
00:31:34.529 --> 00:31:45.490
We'll figure out what that yield data is but really it's just before that December timeframe being able to sit down and do the math on some of these I think will be really important to make sure that we're leaving no stone unturned here.
00:31:45.730 --> 00:31:54.289
Yeah yeah so when we're talking about that IC program is it is it cheaper is it less expensive on the front end?
00:31:54.449 --> 00:31:57.730
How does how what's what's the payoff?
00:31:57.969 --> 00:32:03.569
Yeah so ARC and PLC our county arc individual and plc those are all free programs through FSA.
00:32:03.889 --> 00:32:31.409
So there's no yep I didn't know that yeah yep yep so there's nothing that you pay for and that's really what went into a lot of again this one big beautiful build those are government programs that they're offering they're really intended for this type of situation exactly when we have depressed prices for a given amount of time based off of where we were before that's why they're using these Olympic averages trying to get a feel for what the last five years did versus where we are today is kind of how these programs are supposed to read.
00:32:31.490 --> 00:32:41.809
And so they're supposed to work in these different situations where we do see some you know price loss or yield loss or something based off of our statistical norm from that last five years.
00:32:42.129 --> 00:32:47.730
So it's it's great to see some of these programs that are intended to work work how they're supposed to.
00:32:47.889 --> 00:32:57.730
And it's great for the opportunity this is really farmer friendly I think to treat it this way to be able to get the better of the two for 25 and be able to make an educated decision for 2026.
00:32:57.889 --> 00:33:03.649
For 27 we kind of go back to business as usual or making that decision on March 15th like we typically do.
00:33:03.809 --> 00:33:14.289
Again we're kind of assessing our market bias at that point we want to make that decision as close as we can to again that February March timeframe because we'll just know a little bit more about what's going on at that point.
00:33:14.449 --> 00:33:35.009
But really this this period right now with those 25 payments coming out here shortly 2026 needing to be something that is top of mind before we get to that beginning part of December I know a lot of people are busy with harvest right now but this is kind of the time to start talking about all these different relevant things that are kind of a a positive player for the producer today.
00:33:35.250 --> 00:34:05.730
Yeah I was just checking my calendar here it looks like December 11 2026 is a Friday is is this the kind of deal where the FSA office gets mobbed on December 10 with people who maybe haven't quite fully decided yet maybe don't fully have their ducks in a row yeah I mean I I think that that's an opportunity just like our normal March 15th our deadline is also frequent our July 15th you know deadline for being able to report acres gets to be really crazy.
00:34:05.889 --> 00:34:11.730
I'm not going to sit here and say that there's going to be no one in the FSA office on December 10th if you want to go in and make your election.
00:34:11.809 --> 00:34:20.369
And I do think there'll be some some pressure probably from the FSA offices to be able to get people in earlier just so they can be able to service everything appropriately.
00:34:20.690 --> 00:34:31.009
And our kind of you know comment to that would just be to kind of wait, I would say until that November timeline at the very least to be able to know or at least just whenever you know your yield data.
00:34:31.170 --> 00:34:37.809
So then you just know what you're kind of getting into you can evaluate what's best for you and then be able to make your educated decision.
00:34:37.969 --> 00:34:44.610
I don't think it has to be a wait until December 10th kind of timeframe but I do think that knowing what your yields are will be important this year.
00:34:44.929 --> 00:35:44.690
Yeah that's uh that feels like good advice you are you are expanding my knowledge of crop insurance exponentially here Katie Voynarovich see I can even say your name better now Katie Voynarovich from uh Strategic Farm Marketing and Crop Insurance uh while while I'm thinking about it would you just say your website in case people want to dig into what you folks have to say yeah absolutely it's www.sfarmmarketing.com so you're welcome to join us there and contact us reach out if there's any other questions we have a lot of tools to be able to analy analyze what would be best in these different situations so well because you you folks do also offer all sorts of other services beyond crop insurance there and I do know enough to know that crop insurance needs to be a tool in the toolbox but not the only tool in the toolbox right yeah absolutely a lot of these crop insurance decisions they be they have the opportunity to set in these guarantee levels or these trigger levels and that can really help inform our marketing plan.
00:35:44.769 --> 00:35:53.329
So they definitely do move together there's definitely some opportunities in the commodity markets that can also be able to kind of have a place in some of these different strategies.
00:35:53.489 --> 00:36:01.250
So yes it's definitely an all-encompassing strategy they do all move together but that that kind of full picture is really what we specialize in here.
00:36:01.489 --> 00:36:32.289
Yeah I was I was speaking to Krista Swanson from the National Corn Growers Association was that just last week I believe and it really got me thinking because she highlighted I mean a farmer really has to deal with three different crop years all at the same time and keep all of the you know keep juggling all of that and crop insurance is no different is that fair to say because we got to think about 27 too don't we absolutely yeah I mean I you can't take the eye off the prize there.
00:36:32.369 --> 00:36:39.650
I mean we just went through our fall sales season there were some these margin coverage options that were available during the September timeframe.
00:36:39.809 --> 00:36:43.170
We also have wheat insurance that's you know purchased during that time frame.
00:36:43.250 --> 00:36:47.889
There's other you know depending on the different type of crops they they are sold at different times of year.
00:36:48.049 --> 00:36:53.809
But yes I think you absolutely have to like 25's not over because we clearly have these payments that are still outstanding.
00:36:54.049 --> 00:37:02.210
For 2026 we're in it now and it feels like that's the only thing that matters but realistically 2027 you're right is just right around the corner.
00:37:02.369 --> 00:37:17.969
So I think being able to it's really hard to keep your eye on the prize on all three of these different situations but some of these kind of opportunities to lay out the timeline to kind of you know simplify it down can really help piece it all together especially when folks are busy in the field.
00:37:18.529 --> 00:37:53.250
You've you've moved me along quite a ways down this path here we're we're gonna start making our way toward the door here but I I just want to make sure that you get said everything that you feel like you you need to say if you've got if you've got more ideas that you want to get out if there's one thing maybe that you would say to my audience here regarding crop insurance or maybe a couple of things I don't know I don't know I just want to give you an open mic here before we uh before we start talking about the weather Katie.
00:37:53.650 --> 00:38:16.690
Yeah yeah absolutely I think the the last point I'll make is and you know we're kind of looking forward then to to 27 or what we have on the horizon there's so many positive things I that have kind of been brought into crop insurance even if these prices do stay high in February like we hope that they will crop insurance is one of those different programs that even if the cost is a little bit higher, you're getting more for it year over year.
00:38:16.849 --> 00:38:26.049
So if our price last year was 462 for corn, if we end up being you know hopefully in that$5 mark, our insurance rates are going to go up a little bit but we're getting more for it.
00:38:26.210 --> 00:38:30.610
We have a bigger you know higher triggers that we're locking in we're locking in more dollars.
00:38:30.769 --> 00:38:40.849
So I think that's the really important piece that I do want to impart on folks today is I I think it can feel very you know dissatisfying to see all these different inputs go up and all of those kind of things.
00:38:41.009 --> 00:38:49.329
Crop insurance is really unique in the fact that if we do have price rallies, we're able to capture that coverage and be able to insure more.
00:38:49.489 --> 00:38:53.730
So I think that the you know initial thought might be you know to cut back on certain things.
00:38:53.969 --> 00:38:56.610
Crop insurance I would argue is not the place to do that.
00:38:56.769 --> 00:39:03.569
Right now they've made so many opportunities to make these higher levels at 95% coverage so much cheaper for different producers.
00:39:03.730 --> 00:39:09.329
Those subsidy values have gone up quite pretty significantly specifically through the one big beautiful bill.
00:39:09.569 --> 00:39:15.489
So now more than ever those higher end coverage options are affordable for people to be able to consider.
00:39:15.809 --> 00:39:25.250
So definitely make sure that you're you're being able to be covered make sure that you have you know some of these revenue triggers that you feel super comfortable with because at the end of the day you just want to go farm.
00:39:25.409 --> 00:39:41.650
You just want to be able to you know do what you specialize in and knowing that you're covered on the back end should something out of your control go ahead and come your way so um I appreciate you having me on today and uh yeah I'm happy everyone has a happy and healthy harvest as we get through this period.
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Well and we started with talking a little bit about frustration you know and the frustration is real and legit and when you talk about you you just want to be able to go out and farm.
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You just want to be able to do your thing without this nagging sense what if what if what if I'm a big fan of eliminating variables as much as possible for the sake of peace of mind.
00:40:08.929 --> 00:40:11.809
And it sounds like that's exactly what you're talking about here, Katie.
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Yeah absolutely there definitely are strategies out there that are you know quote unquote sleep at night insurance strategies.
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We want to be able to just do what we want to do not worry about the the fallout of things if you know factors out of our control go a little bit haywire we know that we're covered on the back end.
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So that is definitely you know going into 27 there are opportunities to be able to do that absolutely so if there's anything that we can do in order to help you figure out and what makes sense for your operation let us know.
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I feel like maybe you and I should talk again like early in December.
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Yeah I don't know if you'd be up for that or not I'm gonna put here in my notes like early December and maybe if nothing else just well I could use more education you clearly know your stuff Katie that's impressive but but also just to kind of you know move to top as they say so that uh so the producers don't get caught oh no it's it's the ninth already oh I I have to have these it's that again goes to peace of mind.
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Let me ask you this Katie before before we totally shut it down I usually like to do this because it's fun.
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If you look out your window right now Champaign Illinois what's uh what's the weather doing what's it look like by now it is beautiful and sunny I have to say um so that is super great to see a beautiful sunny day right in the fall here where you got the nice period in the afternoon where you know it's like kind of short sea weather outside before it starts to get a little cooler in the evening.
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So we have a beautiful day in Champaign today.
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I'm sure glad to hear that uh especially for those folks antsy to get out there and and uh cut some beans or harvest a little bit of corn or whatever they need to do outside.
00:41:51.250 --> 00:42:08.289
Yeah it's uh it's a little warmer here yes today than it was yesterday I we may push up to 80 here in Kansas City but beautiful sunshine nice dry weather the National Weather Service this looks a little sketchy tropical storm Isaias is forecast to track toward the central U.S.
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Gulf Coast while strengthening into a hurricane on Thursday residents from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle should closely monitor the latest updates while not dangerously hot conditions across the western to central U.S.
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remain well above average for October with widespread highs in the 70s and 80s some daily records will be challenged some showers may begin to develop over the north central plains by early Friday Katie I think you've you've got that on your radar already you've you've mentioned it um let's uh let's talk about a few items of just mild interest items of mild interest according to popculturmadness.com this day october 7 in history do you happen to play the cello are you a cellist by any chance at all I am not a cellist unfortunately no nor am I nor am I 1955 it's the birthday of yo yo ma French American cellist he's done some really interesting things with Chris Theley the mandolin guy and doing some I think it's called the goat rodeo sessions uh Alison Krauss was involved it's really it's really cool stuff kind of this Americana thing it's his birthday 1957 the birthday of Michael W.
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Smith American singer songwriter he basically wrote the uh soundtrack to every youth group meeting that I ever went to back in the day he certainly did yeah and in 1996 the Fox News channel began broadcasting it doesn't seem like that long ago but I suppose that that could be could be right Katie Voynorovich from strategic farm marketing and crop insurance that's sfarmmarketing.com s farmmarketing.com for more from Katie and her team thank you so much Katie for spending some time with us and being patient with me I need education on this and you've done a great job moving me forward I appreciate you no I appreciate you guys so much and thank you for having me today absolutely I uh I do have it down here to to give you a shout early in December so maybe I'll be ready for another dose then I'll have digested all of this by then so uh thank you Katie Strategic Farm Marketing and Crop Insurance if you haven't had a chance please go to agbull.com check out all the lavish premium services we've got for y'all over there visit agbol.com or call 855-737 Farm that's 855737F AR followed by the letter M.
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That's Agbull.com Jedwell will set you up bright and early tomorrow morning and then I'll have a conversation with Mike and Carter from Ellingston tomorrow afternoon.
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Be safe everybody enjoy that beautiful Midwestern weather and tune in next time for AgSquat