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With the failure this week of Silicon Valley Bank I believe we are seeing the results of continuing liquidity tightening. If the FED continues raising rates and shrinking its balance sheet you will see more of this.
More data sets are lining up to indicate that the economy is weakening and yet the market has been rallying.   My view is the lag effects of the rapid rise in the FED funds rate still have not fully shown themselves in the economy.
Things are breaking due to rates being too high. In the past, every time we had a financial crisis the FED always went back to the playbook of papering over the problem. Are we closer to the end of the tightening cycle or the beginning? What asset classes benefit from a cycle of excess liquidit…
Back in 2017, Janet Yellen said it was likely we would never have another banking crisis in our lifetime. The whole banking system is a confidence game and these people are just making it up as they go along. Believe them at your own risk.
I had two tranches of coal producer Peabody Energy in the AIA portfolio.  I discuss why I bought the shares and why I recently sold both positions for 400-600% gains.
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