WEBVTT
00:00:00.160 --> 00:00:04.320
I'm getting sick and tired of people sugarcoating things, right?
00:00:04.559 --> 00:00:07.280
Auction volumes have dropped significantly, right?
00:00:07.440 --> 00:00:16.559
Sydney and Melbourne are the auction capitals of Australia, and many properties that would have privately gone to auction are now being sold by private treaty.
00:00:16.719 --> 00:00:18.000
Do I think auctions are dead?
00:00:18.079 --> 00:00:18.719
Absolutely not.
00:00:18.879 --> 00:00:31.920
I think to myself that right at this moment, auctions has been a system that has coped the shock to the permanent, you know, impact of the budget, but I don't think that's a permanent structural change.
00:00:32.079 --> 00:00:37.520
In fact, I'm already seeing auctions being booked in my diary for late September, October.
00:00:37.759 --> 00:00:41.280
But right now, volumes are down, and I've decided to take advantage of this period.
00:00:41.439 --> 00:00:52.479
Today I played uh uh I went to the gym, pickleball, I did the bay run twice, got some sun because for nearly 40 years I've been working six days a week.
00:00:52.640 --> 00:00:57.600
So, as I said earlier this week, sometimes the best gifts in life come badly wrapped.
00:00:57.759 --> 00:01:02.560
Tomorrow I'll give you the official clearance numbers from totality.
00:01:02.799 --> 00:01:05.840
But let me tell you what I'm seeing at a high level right now.
00:01:06.000 --> 00:01:10.879
At the lower price points all over Australia, there is still strong buyer activity.
00:01:11.040 --> 00:01:16.560
In fact, certain marketplaces are seeing a bit of price rises down that bottom end.
00:01:16.719 --> 00:01:20.400
The middle market has been impacted and the high end has been severely impacted.
00:01:20.560 --> 00:01:28.959
But everyone needs to take a chill pill before we start talking about a total collapse of Australian real estate because perspective matters, right?
00:01:29.519 --> 00:01:30.319
Get real.
00:01:30.640 --> 00:01:37.040
If a prestige property is down 20%, ask yourself, down 20% from what?
00:01:38.079 --> 00:01:45.200
In many cases, it's coming off a growth of 60 to 70% over the previous five or six years.
00:01:45.439 --> 00:01:48.480
Don't just look at how far something has fallen.
00:01:48.719 --> 00:01:51.120
Look at how far it climbed first.
00:01:51.439 --> 00:01:55.439
And I believe Sydney and Melbourne are well into this downturn.
00:01:55.599 --> 00:01:59.359
Contrary to what people are saying that it was just the budget, no way.
00:01:59.760 --> 00:02:04.959
Sydney and Melbourne started to weaken late last year as soon as the rates started going up.
00:02:05.200 --> 00:02:10.879
Don't get me wrong, the budget that was the uh steroids to it.
00:02:11.039 --> 00:02:17.280
But the other capital cities, the minor ones like Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, they started to slow down after the budget.
00:02:17.360 --> 00:02:24.080
So I can see Sydney and Melbourne also being the first markets to eventually come out on the other side.
00:02:24.400 --> 00:02:31.360
So, but let's talk about real estate industry itself at the moment, because the biggest problem for many agents right now is not the price.
00:02:31.520 --> 00:02:33.680
It's not the price, it's the volume.
00:02:33.840 --> 00:02:36.719
Fewer transactions meaning less revenue.
00:02:36.879 --> 00:02:38.639
And that affects everyone.
00:02:38.800 --> 00:02:47.439
It affects everyone in the industry, the agents, the auctioneers, the buyer agents, the photographers, the stylists, the mortgage brokers, everyone connected to transactions.
00:02:47.520 --> 00:02:52.639
Even JB Hi-Fi during the week actually blamed the housing crisis to their poor results.
00:02:52.800 --> 00:02:54.639
We're starting to see liquidations as well.
00:02:54.719 --> 00:02:57.840
We saw another buyer's agency go into liquidation.
00:02:58.000 --> 00:03:04.560
I think buyer agencies heavily dependent on the ones that are heavily dependent on selling to investors.
00:03:04.719 --> 00:03:10.159
They're the ones that I think are particularly vulnerable, not the ones that selling to own occupiers.
00:03:10.240 --> 00:03:13.199
But I think most of the ones that are good businesses will survive.
00:03:13.360 --> 00:03:18.159
And there's another part of the downturn no one's talking about, the psychology.
00:03:18.400 --> 00:03:23.599
There are people in my industry, and we are the largest real estate coaching company in Australia.
00:03:23.680 --> 00:03:25.280
We have three coaches employed.
00:03:25.439 --> 00:03:29.280
No one coaches the people that we do and the quality of the people.
00:03:29.439 --> 00:03:42.639
And I've got to say to you, many of these real estate people in our industry, their whole identity is tied up into their GCI and them performing as an agent, their listings, their awards, their car, their office.
00:03:43.039 --> 00:03:47.680
And I have to say to you, their whole status is built around their life.
00:03:47.840 --> 00:03:56.159
When business suddenly slows down, they don't just lose revenue, they lose part of the identity that created around that revenue.
00:03:56.240 --> 00:03:58.000
And I'm genuinely feeling for them.
00:03:58.159 --> 00:04:02.400
But downturns teach us lessons that boom markets can never teach us.
00:04:02.560 --> 00:04:05.919
You learn the importance of diversification, right?
00:04:06.240 --> 00:04:10.960
Thank God that I'm not dependent on one stream of income.
00:04:11.120 --> 00:04:13.919
You learn the importance of saving for a rainy day.
00:04:14.080 --> 00:04:21.120
You you've got to learn that growth doesn't continue forever, and you've got to learn one of the most important rules in business.
00:04:21.360 --> 00:04:25.360
If you can't control revenue, you must learn to control expenses.
00:04:25.519 --> 00:04:41.279
And the first expenses I'd be suffocating right now, not just for real estate people or mortgage brokers, but everyone who's living in Australia right now that's feeling it, get rid of the ego expenses, the flashy stuff, whatever it is.
00:04:42.079 --> 00:04:52.959
Cars, the unnecessary overhead, the subscriptions that nobody's using, the staff structure built for yesterday's revenue.
00:04:53.279 --> 00:04:58.959
Listen, I'm not going into defense mode, but I've never seen anyone go broke making a profit.
00:04:59.120 --> 00:05:03.680
Because in a downturn, cash is oxygen, ego burns oxygen.
00:05:03.759 --> 00:05:09.519
And remember this leftover Trump's turnover, volume is vanity, profit is sanity.
00:05:09.839 --> 00:05:12.319
You can't go broke making a profit.
00:05:12.480 --> 00:05:16.160
Keep your fundamentals strong, keep your expenses under control.
00:05:16.639 --> 00:05:18.399
Keep cash available.
00:05:18.639 --> 00:05:28.879
Because the irony is, while some people are terrified of this market, I'm starting to get excited by it because I'm looking at my clients who are thinking to themselves, hey, I can stand out.
00:05:29.040 --> 00:05:34.879
Everyone can look good when you've got three buyers on one property because you can say if you don't want it, I'll sell it to them.
00:05:34.959 --> 00:05:36.079
But you can't do that now.
00:05:36.240 --> 00:05:37.120
Skill matters.
00:05:37.279 --> 00:05:40.160
And I'm in buying mode, these are great opportunities.
00:05:40.399 --> 00:05:44.399
Some of the numbers I'm seeing starting to look too beautiful to ignore.
00:05:44.560 --> 00:05:46.720
Do I know where the absolute bottom is?
00:05:46.879 --> 00:05:47.839
Absolutely not.
00:05:47.920 --> 00:05:49.519
And neither does anyone else.
00:05:49.680 --> 00:05:53.120
And I'm not interested in buying at the bottom, and no buyer should be.
00:05:53.199 --> 00:05:55.360
You should be interested in buying well.
00:05:55.439 --> 00:05:57.120
There's a massive difference.
00:05:57.439 --> 00:06:05.040
Because downturns can destroy people who are over-leveraged, overextended, and carrying ego expenses.
00:06:05.199 --> 00:06:12.399
But those same downturns can create amazing opportunities for people who kept their powder dry.
00:06:12.959 --> 00:06:16.560
Same market, two completely different experiences.
00:06:16.800 --> 00:06:18.959
And finally, something personal.
00:06:19.199 --> 00:06:33.360
I've got to say to you, this extra time's giving me a chance to put effort and energy into the things that matter, and one of those is I'm going to be an ambassador for my good friend Malcolm Quinn's charity event called the Other Chair.
00:06:33.519 --> 00:06:39.680
You're going to hear me talking a lot about that because as I enter the second half of my life, I've realized something.
00:06:39.920 --> 00:06:43.839
It's not about making an income for me anymore, it's making an impact.
00:06:44.160 --> 00:06:49.120
Cancer charities are going to be a very big part of what I'm doing in the future.
00:06:49.199 --> 00:06:53.279
I'm already an ambassador auctioneer for look good, feel good, and I have been for many years.
00:06:53.360 --> 00:06:58.480
This is a women's charity that makes sure that women look presentable when they're going through chemo.
00:06:58.720 --> 00:07:01.839
They do beautiful work supporting these females.
00:07:02.000 --> 00:07:04.240
Also, some guys, but it's a 90% charity.
00:07:04.319 --> 00:07:05.439
It's on women.
00:07:05.600 --> 00:07:07.519
I don't know what it is about me and women.
00:07:07.680 --> 00:07:09.439
I live in a house full of women.
00:07:09.680 --> 00:07:12.639
All my staff members are women, all my coaches are women.
00:07:12.879 --> 00:07:16.879
Anyway, going forward, you're going to see me putting a lot more time and energy in these.
00:07:16.959 --> 00:07:19.040
So look out for the other chair.
00:07:19.199 --> 00:07:20.240
Watch this space.
00:07:20.399 --> 00:07:33.680
Because markets go up, team, markets go down, income comes, income goes, but eventually you're going to reach a point in your life where you realize success isn't only about what you accumulate.
00:00:00.160 --> 00:00:04.320
I'm getting sick and tired of people sugarcoating things, right?
00:00:04.559 --> 00:00:07.280
Auction volumes have dropped significantly, right?
00:00:07.440 --> 00:00:16.559
Sydney and Melbourne are the auction capitals of Australia, and many properties that would have privately gone to auction are now being sold by private treaty.
00:00:16.719 --> 00:00:18.000
Do I think auctions are dead?
00:00:18.079 --> 00:00:18.719
Absolutely not.
00:00:18.879 --> 00:00:31.920
I think to myself that right at this moment, auctions has been a system that has coped the shock to the permanent, you know, impact of the budget, but I don't think that's a permanent structural change.
00:00:32.079 --> 00:00:37.520
In fact, I'm already seeing auctions being booked in my diary for late September, October.
00:00:37.759 --> 00:00:41.280
But right now, volumes are down, and I've decided to take advantage of this period.
00:00:41.439 --> 00:00:52.479
Today I played uh uh I went to the gym, pickleball, I did the bay run twice, got some sun because for nearly 40 years I've been working six days a week.
00:00:52.640 --> 00:00:57.600
So, as I said earlier this week, sometimes the best gifts in life come badly wrapped.
00:00:57.759 --> 00:01:02.560
Tomorrow I'll give you the official clearance numbers from totality.
00:01:02.799 --> 00:01:05.840
But let me tell you what I'm seeing at a high level right now.
00:01:06.000 --> 00:01:10.879
At the lower price points all over Australia, there is still strong buyer activity.
00:01:11.040 --> 00:01:16.560
In fact, certain marketplaces are seeing a bit of price rises down that bottom end.
00:01:16.719 --> 00:01:20.400
The middle market has been impacted and the high end has been severely impacted.
00:01:20.560 --> 00:01:28.959
But everyone needs to take a chill pill before we start talking about a total collapse of Australian real estate because perspective matters, right?
00:01:29.519 --> 00:01:30.319
Get real.
00:01:30.640 --> 00:01:37.040
If a prestige property is down 20%, ask yourself, down 20% from what?
00:01:38.079 --> 00:01:45.200
In many cases, it's coming off a growth of 60 to 70% over the previous five or six years.
00:01:45.439 --> 00:01:48.480
Don't just look at how far something has fallen.
00:01:48.719 --> 00:01:51.120
Look at how far it climbed first.
00:01:51.439 --> 00:01:55.439
And I believe Sydney and Melbourne are well into this downturn.
00:01:55.599 --> 00:01:59.359
Contrary to what people are saying that it was just the budget, no way.
00:01:59.760 --> 00:02:04.959
Sydney and Melbourne started to weaken late last year as soon as the rates started going up.
00:02:05.200 --> 00:02:10.879
Don't get me wrong, the budget that was the uh steroids to it.
00:02:11.039 --> 00:02:17.280
But the other capital cities, the minor ones like Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, they started to slow down after the budget.
00:02:17.360 --> 00:02:24.080
So I can see Sydney and Melbourne also being the first markets to eventually come out on the other side.
00:02:24.400 --> 00:02:31.360
So, but let's talk about real estate industry itself at the moment, because the biggest problem for many agents right now is not the price.
00:02:31.520 --> 00:02:33.680
It's not the price, it's the volume.
00:02:33.840 --> 00:02:36.719
Fewer transactions meaning less revenue.
00:02:36.879 --> 00:02:38.639
And that affects everyone.
00:02:38.800 --> 00:02:47.439
It affects everyone in the industry, the agents, the auctioneers, the buyer agents, the photographers, the stylists, the mortgage brokers, everyone connected to transactions.
00:02:47.520 --> 00:02:52.639
Even JB Hi-Fi during the week actually blamed the housing crisis to their poor results.
00:02:52.800 --> 00:02:54.639
We're starting to see liquidations as well.
00:02:54.719 --> 00:02:57.840
We saw another buyer's agency go into liquidation.
00:02:58.000 --> 00:03:04.560
I think buyer agencies heavily dependent on the ones that are heavily dependent on selling to investors.
00:03:04.719 --> 00:03:10.159
They're the ones that I think are particularly vulnerable, not the ones that selling to own occupiers.
00:03:10.240 --> 00:03:13.199
But I think most of the ones that are good businesses will survive.
00:03:13.360 --> 00:03:18.159
And there's another part of the downturn no one's talking about, the psychology.
00:03:18.400 --> 00:03:23.599
There are people in my industry, and we are the largest real estate coaching company in Australia.
00:03:23.680 --> 00:03:25.280
We have three coaches employed.
00:03:25.439 --> 00:03:29.280
No one coaches the people that we do and the quality of the people.
00:03:29.439 --> 00:03:42.639
And I've got to say to you, many of these real estate people in our industry, their whole identity is tied up into their GCI and them performing as an agent, their listings, their awards, their car, their office.
00:03:43.039 --> 00:03:47.680
And I have to say to you, their whole status is built around their life.
00:03:47.840 --> 00:03:56.159
When business suddenly slows down, they don't just lose revenue, they lose part of the identity that created around that revenue.
00:03:56.240 --> 00:03:58.000
And I'm genuinely feeling for them.
00:03:58.159 --> 00:04:02.400
But downturns teach us lessons that boom markets can never teach us.
00:04:02.560 --> 00:04:05.919
You learn the importance of diversification, right?
00:04:06.240 --> 00:04:10.960
Thank God that I'm not dependent on one stream of income.
00:04:11.120 --> 00:04:13.919
You learn the importance of saving for a rainy day.
00:04:14.080 --> 00:04:21.120
You you've got to learn that growth doesn't continue forever, and you've got to learn one of the most important rules in business.
00:04:21.360 --> 00:04:25.360
If you can't control revenue, you must learn to control expenses.
00:04:25.519 --> 00:04:41.279
And the first expenses I'd be suffocating right now, not just for real estate people or mortgage brokers, but everyone who's living in Australia right now that's feeling it, get rid of the ego expenses, the flashy stuff, whatever it is.
00:04:42.079 --> 00:04:52.959
Cars, the unnecessary overhead, the subscriptions that nobody's using, the staff structure built for yesterday's revenue.
00:04:53.279 --> 00:04:58.959
Listen, I'm not going into defense mode, but I've never seen anyone go broke making a profit.
00:04:59.120 --> 00:05:03.680
Because in a downturn, cash is oxygen, ego burns oxygen.
00:05:03.759 --> 00:05:09.519
And remember this leftover Trump's turnover, volume is vanity, profit is sanity.
00:05:09.839 --> 00:05:12.319
You can't go broke making a profit.
00:05:12.480 --> 00:05:16.160
Keep your fundamentals strong, keep your expenses under control.
00:05:16.639 --> 00:05:18.399
Keep cash available.
00:05:18.639 --> 00:05:28.879
Because the irony is, while some people are terrified of this market, I'm starting to get excited by it because I'm looking at my clients who are thinking to themselves, hey, I can stand out.
00:05:29.040 --> 00:05:34.879
Everyone can look good when you've got three buyers on one property because you can say if you don't want it, I'll sell it to them.
00:05:34.959 --> 00:05:36.079
But you can't do that now.
00:05:36.240 --> 00:05:37.120
Skill matters.
00:05:37.279 --> 00:05:40.160
And I'm in buying mode, these are great opportunities.
00:05:40.399 --> 00:05:44.399
Some of the numbers I'm seeing starting to look too beautiful to ignore.
00:05:44.560 --> 00:05:46.720
Do I know where the absolute bottom is?
00:05:46.879 --> 00:05:47.839
Absolutely not.
00:05:47.920 --> 00:05:49.519
And neither does anyone else.
00:05:49.680 --> 00:05:53.120
And I'm not interested in buying at the bottom, and no buyer should be.
00:05:53.199 --> 00:05:55.360
You should be interested in buying well.
00:05:55.439 --> 00:05:57.120
There's a massive difference.
00:05:57.439 --> 00:06:05.040
Because downturns can destroy people who are over-leveraged, overextended, and carrying ego expenses.
00:06:05.199 --> 00:06:12.399
But those same downturns can create amazing opportunities for people who kept their powder dry.
00:06:12.959 --> 00:06:16.560
Same market, two completely different experiences.
00:06:16.800 --> 00:06:18.959
And finally, something personal.
00:06:19.199 --> 00:06:33.360
I've got to say to you, this extra time's giving me a chance to put effort and energy into the things that matter, and one of those is I'm going to be an ambassador for my good friend Malcolm Quinn's charity event called the Other Chair.
00:06:33.519 --> 00:06:39.680
You're going to hear me talking a lot about that because as I enter the second half of my life, I've realized something.
00:06:39.920 --> 00:06:43.839
It's not about making an income for me anymore, it's making an impact.
00:06:44.160 --> 00:06:49.120
Cancer charities are going to be a very big part of what I'm doing in the future.
00:06:49.199 --> 00:06:53.279
I'm already an ambassador auctioneer for look good, feel good, and I have been for many years.
00:06:53.360 --> 00:06:58.480
This is a women's charity that makes sure that women look presentable when they're going through chemo.
00:06:58.720 --> 00:07:01.839
They do beautiful work supporting these females.
00:07:02.000 --> 00:07:04.240
Also, some guys, but it's a 90% charity.
00:07:04.319 --> 00:07:05.439
It's on women.
00:07:05.600 --> 00:07:07.519
I don't know what it is about me and women.
00:07:07.680 --> 00:07:09.439
I live in a house full of women.
00:07:09.680 --> 00:07:12.639
All my staff members are women, all my coaches are women.
00:07:12.879 --> 00:07:16.879
Anyway, going forward, you're going to see me putting a lot more time and energy in these.
00:07:16.959 --> 00:07:19.040
So look out for the other chair.
00:07:19.199 --> 00:07:20.240
Watch this space.
00:07:20.399 --> 00:07:33.680
Because markets go up, team, markets go down, income comes, income goes, but eventually you're going to reach a point in your life where you realize success isn't only about what you accumulate.
