00:00:06.320 --> 00:00:16.399
This is Generations Friends Kevin Swanson with you, and the alternative for Germany, party, political party, won 44% of the seats in their local election over the last weekend.
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That's the first time a nationalist anti-immigration party has gained that much political ground since World War II.
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The AFD is advocating the deportation of immigrants, a position that is widely rejected in the rest of Germany right now.
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20% of Germans are foreign-born today compared to 14% 20 years ago.
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Now, the mainstream media is just horrified by what they call the far right on the upswing in Germany, flashbacks from the Nazis, no doubt.
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But the main deal for the AFD is that these pesky immigrants be shipped back to where they came from.
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The horror of the mainstream media is actually somewhat rewarding, supplies an emotional uplift to me today.
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So I'm actually a bit encouraged just because of that.
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But now, the real story everybody's ignoring is this the birth rate for German citizens is 1.2.
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1.2.
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Whereas the current birth rate for foreign citizens living in Germany is 1.8.
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At this birth rate, the population of German citizens without the benefit of immigration would decrease from 71 million to 30 million in 50 years.
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All right?
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With or without the AFD party, Germany is dying.
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Now consider this.
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Germany made up 3.4% of the world population in 1900.
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Now Germany makes up 1% of the world population.
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That's like one-third of what it was.
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Germany will make up 0.3% of the world population 50 years from now, based on their current birth rate sustaining.
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That's one-tenth, one-tenth of the size it was in 1900 when the Third Reich was taking over the whole world and all that garbage.
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Germany is done.
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It's over for Germany as a world power.
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It's done.
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Put a fork in it.
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It's over.
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Germany succumbed to birth implosions already.
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It's over for the West.
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It's over for Germany.
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This is the fall of the West, as I recount in my book, Epoch, The Rise and Fall of the West.
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By the way, the same thing is happening to the UK.
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The UK native-born population will drop off from 56 million to 30 million over the next 50 years, which will only amount to 0.3% of the world population.
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That's a nothing burger.
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That's nothing.
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UK is done.
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It's over.
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No more.
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Bury it.
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Rest in peace.
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It's an RIP moment for the UK.
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The UK made up 2.5% of the world population in 1900, only 0.8% of the world population to today, and only 0.33% of the world population in 2075 based on current birth rates.
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That's all assuming that the conservative nationalists stop all immigration.
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If, however, immigration continues in the UK and Germany, they will be run by Muslims, Africans, and others.
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But why is this all happening?
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Why?
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What's the root of all of this?
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Why did Germany collapse?
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Why did the UK collapse?
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Because of abortion.
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The mass use of abortifacians, the loss of faith.
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You know, the women had no more children, the men lost reason and faith.
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And the gods of the copybook headings said the wages of sin is death.
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Okay, that's Kipling, right?
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It's a loss of faith.
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It's birth implosions, because of existentialist worldviews dominating, because of raw selfishness.
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Somebody just say it.
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Just selfish pigs killing all their kids.
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And the end result is they make up 0.3% of the world population turn out to be the armpit of all of human society by the year 2075.
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So here's the question.
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And I understand that this is the minority of the minority report, the voice crying in the wilderness, so to speak, but how in the world do we fix this?
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I know.
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Stop all these pesky immigrants from crawling off their rubber rafts down in Sicily.
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That'll fix it.
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It's so superficial, so short-sighted, so non-consequential.
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It's just ridiculous.
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It's hardly worth addressing.
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The real question everybody in Germany and UK is avoiding is this how do you stuff the self-centered, existentialist, conception-controlled, birth-imploting demon of modern liberalism back into Pandora's box?
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It's not going to happen.
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Short of a Christian reformation.
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Islam will dominate Europe in 2075.
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I don't think there's any debating that, given the death of Christianity and the imploding birth rates in Europe.
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Islam will fill the vacuum created by the atheism of Charles Darwin and Karl Marx, liberalism of John Stuart Mill and the rest of the crowd.
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The U.S.
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will be alone in geopolitics.
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However, there was a wild card.
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Now, America is somewhat a wild card.
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I'm getting to that in a moment.
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But Africa and South America are turning evangelical.
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It's the biggest worldwide Christian move since the Reformation or since the breaking out of the Christian faith in Europe back in the 600s.
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And population-wise, Africa is set to dominate the world in 2075.
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In 1900, Africa's birth rate was such that the population took 8.5% of the world population.
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Now it's 19% of the world population.
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And the birth rate is sustaining in Africa.
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By 2075, Africa will have 33% of the world population.
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Whereas what where was Great Britain?
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0.33%?
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0.33% to 33%.
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What is that?
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A factor of 100.
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South America's holding steady at roughly 4.5%, have since 1900, and we'll pretty much be there by 2075, while the U.S.
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is heading down from 4.6% 1900 to 2.7% 2075, assuming immigration zeroes out and we retain the current birth rate.
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Well, if a Christian reformation occurs in Africa and South America, the whole picture will change by the year 2075.
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That's the wild card.
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As far as Asia is concerned, China and Russia are heading down with their own birth implosions, dropping from 29% back in the early 2000s to 20% today, and then down to 12% in 2075.
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Now that's not nearly as severe as what's happened in UK and Germany.
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Not nearly.
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Europe's major word world powers are sinking like a rock from 6% to 0.6%, while China and Russia are losing a bit as well.
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China and Russia will lose about 60% of their population, but the UK and Germany, 90%.
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90% over the same period of time.
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Okay, but here's the good news.
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Everybody ready for the good news?
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There's a little bit of hope for the United States, not because of the Catholics.
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Their birth rate is down around replacement level, not because of the Mormons, but because of you got it, the homeschool movement, where there's a percentage of Christians who genuinely love their children.
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Now it's a percentage.
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They genuinely love their children and they like to be with their children.
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And they won't kill their kids with abortion and abortifations.
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Their birth rates are still strong.
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These are fresh numbers.
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Turns out the Brazilian homeschool movement, probably the second largest in the world right now, sports a 2.68 birth rate over the national average of 1.7.
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And that's a that's that's just like two weeks ago based on a sample size of 1,200 families.
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Now, based on a sample size of about 2,000 families in Colorado, we're averaging a 2.13 children at school age, which translates to a homeschool birth rate between 3 and 3.5.
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Now, assuming a conservative homeschool birth rate of 2.8, so that's pretty conservative, and an 80% chance homeschool grads will homeschool their own children, which was the number we took from our Gen 2 survey conducted about 10 years ago, and a 2.9% historical growth on first generation homeschoolers, it's been the way it's been for 20 years, the homeschool population in 2036 will be 4.6 million here in America, 6.1 million by 2046, and 8.1 million by 2056.
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Meanwhile, the National Center for Education Statistics reports that public schools in America have lost almost 2 million students since 2019, partly due to the birth dearth in America since 2015, and partly due to homeschooling getting a 1 million person bump.
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Births to women in America topped out in 2007.
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Now the birth rate's hovering around 1.57.
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And the American birth dearth is not slowing down, my friends.
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The Center for Disease Control's numbers this year so far, 2026, indicate that total U.S.
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births fell off again during the first quarter of 2026, a 2.1% drop off from the previous year.
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There were 4.3 million births in America in 2007, only 3.6 million births last year.
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We're looking at another drop of about 700,000 students this year.
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This data points to an 18% drop in American births in 18 years.
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Based on these numbers for American birds, by 2031, the public schools will lose another 2.44 million students due to birth decline alone in this country.
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That's not counting the number of students that drop off into homeschool and private school.
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Now, let's do the math.
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If homeschooling growth rate kicks in to an additional million over the next five years, the public schools will lose 2.4 million students every five years due to the birth dearth.
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Public school enrollment will drop from 50 million to 45 million by 2036, and then down to 41 million in 2046, and then down to 38 million by 2046.
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The homeschool ratio will increase from 7% of Americans in 2026 to 10% in 2036 to 15% in 2046 to uh 23% in 2056, add in private school enrollment, and we're looking at a privatized education in America hitting 17% in 2026 this year, 20% in 2036, 25% in 2046, and 33% in 2056.
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Private schooling has already hovered around 10% for the last 30 to 40 years.
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So all that said, let's sum it up.
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Number one, the old European powers, the old Western worldview, that old corrupted, burned out post-Christian Europe will turn out to be negligible, of negligible importance in world politics by 2075, like one-tenth of the power they used to hold as a percentage of the world population.
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Number two, the United States will hold some sort of position of power, but weakened by 30, 40%.
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America's in the balance.
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The homeschool birth rate may make a difference.
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And then number three, South America and Africa is the wild card.
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South America has seen a huge evangelical surge, up to 19% of the population, up from 3% in 1960.
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Africa has increased from 3% to 28% on the evangelical surge they experienced since roughly 1900.
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If you're a Christian, you're going to be thrilled.
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The atheist West is dying out.
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Hallelujah.
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And praise the Lord.
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Jesus reigns absolutely.
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The East is suffering from the same birth implosion that comes by the Western apostate, neoliberal, regressive worldview.
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But South America is holding its own.
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And Africa is on the increase, largely because they've taken on the Christian faith.
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And the discipleship of the nations is going full force right now.
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And while you're listening to this, my wife and I and Bill Jack are doing a biblical worldview family discipleship tour through South America and Africa, 10 conferences over three weeks.
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Forget the anti-immigration thing.
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What you need is have the faith to have lots of babies.
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Disciple your kids and disciple the nations where people are still willing to be disciples of Jesus and you will be kingdom relevant in the year 2075.
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All right, today Bill Jack is with me in studio.
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Birth rates are the big deal.
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Will we ever recover?
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And what is God doing?
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And Bill, the question is, how do you get this genie back in the bottle?
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How do you get the demon back in the Pandora's box?
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The Chinese, for example, made a terrible mistake.
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One child per family requirement that they imposed upon the Chinese people from I'm going to say late 70s, all the way into the 2000s, imploded their birth rate down into the 1-2s, 1-1s.
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And then they said, ooh, we made a mistake.
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How do we recover this?
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We're heading down.
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Our civilization will hardly exist in the next 50 years or 80 years.
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So we need to recover from this.
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They have not recovered.
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They can bribe people to have babies, tax credits, you know, here's an extra$20,000 for childcare.
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But it's really hard to get that demon back into Pandora's box.
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And it only comes about when Christianity prevails in a culture.
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Yes.
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And it affects everybody, not just Christians, but it affects non-Christians as well.
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Because Christianity has this yeast effect, it has this salting effect, if you will, and it preserves our culture.
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It preserves civilization.
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And Christians lead that.
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They set the example.
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And then it filters through the culture.
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It seeps into even the non-Christians.
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And so we begin to reclaim the concept that marriage is for the purpose of raising a godly seed.
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But there are benefits, there are actual physical benefits to a culture when you have a Christian worldview that dominates.
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And it doesn't mean that everybody's a Christian, but it means that it salts and lights the entire culture.
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And one of those things is that children are a blessing.
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And that we the Bible says this that the wealth of a king is his people.
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People are a blessing.
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They're a short-term children, they are a short-term deficit.
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They're a burden.
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They're useless eaters in families.
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But there comes a point when they begin to be fruitful and they begin to multiply economy.
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They begin to be fruitful and they multiply creativity in every aspect of culture, and culture flourishes because of people.
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We have killed the creativity.
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We have killed our greatest resource.
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We have despised the wisdom of God.
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And so we have w m I've I've mentioned this before.
00:17:08.380 --> 00:17:12.619
I mean, the idea that there's now this idea that you can live forever.
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Okay?
00:17:13.900 --> 00:17:22.860
That longevity is to be grasped, that we do everything we can as a self-centered person to extend extend our lifespan.
00:17:23.819 --> 00:17:25.740
Well, that means you don't have children.
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Because then you have resources that have to go to the children.
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The Bible says die to yourself, give yourself to God, and then speak to other people.
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You're a blessing to other people.
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You create wealth.
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How do you create wealth?
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Because you have families.
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And you have families that then are fruitful.
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There's only one explanation to why you have imploded the birth rates, and we have in this country and almost every developed country in the world.
00:17:55.019 --> 00:18:00.059
I think it's now 110 countries in the world have imploded their birth rates and not 130 countries in the world.
00:18:00.619 --> 00:18:12.460
But what they've done is they've imploded their birth rates, they've cut their work to retiree ratio to almost nothing, they've spent their great, great, great-grandkids into debt, and they've done it for pure selfishness.
00:18:12.940 --> 00:18:16.779
They live to themselves for the moment, and we call that existentialism.
00:18:16.940 --> 00:18:19.179
But that to me is the root problem.
00:18:19.500 --> 00:18:22.460
The only way to solve that problem is Jesus Christ.
00:18:22.860 --> 00:18:24.779
I think it's Jesus or bust at this point.
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There's just no way that once you've institutionalized, and this is what governments have done, they made the mistake to institutionalize self-worship.
00:18:32.299 --> 00:18:38.779
The idea of sacrificing your great-great-grandchildren on the altar of your own convenience and your own enjoyment.
00:18:39.740 --> 00:18:42.779
So civilizations used to know that's really, really stupid.
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Don't ever do anything like that.
00:18:44.299 --> 00:18:45.179
Well, we've done it.
00:18:45.340 --> 00:18:48.860
So as I see it at this point, the only possibility is the gospel.
00:18:48.940 --> 00:18:55.740
The only possibility is Christians, real Christians, come to the point where they realize, yes, we are to deny ourselves.
00:18:55.900 --> 00:18:59.579
The only way to be a disciple of Jesus is if we deny ourselves.
00:18:59.819 --> 00:19:00.779
Deny ourselves.
00:19:00.940 --> 00:19:02.779
Take up the cross daily and follow Jesus.
00:19:02.940 --> 00:19:03.819
Here is something interesting.
00:19:03.900 --> 00:19:08.460
I want your comment on this from, I just actually sort of accidentally picked this up just now.
00:19:08.700 --> 00:19:12.539
Pew Research did their religious landscape study and found birth rates.
00:19:12.619 --> 00:19:13.659
And here's what they found.
00:19:13.819 --> 00:19:17.019
They found, okay, you have your average American birth rate.
00:19:17.099 --> 00:19:21.180
And let's at right now it's like 1.7 or 1.6, I think it is.
00:19:21.259 --> 00:19:22.379
It's somewhat variable.
00:19:22.460 --> 00:19:28.140
But in terms of this study, there is a baseline of all Americans.
00:19:28.299 --> 00:19:30.940
All Americans are, let's say, at 1.7.
00:19:31.660 --> 00:19:34.379
Catholics are 0.1 above that.
00:19:35.339 --> 00:19:36.940
Meaning it'd be about 1.8.
00:19:37.660 --> 00:19:41.180
Um evangelical Protestants are 0.2 above that.
00:19:42.379 --> 00:19:43.180
Be 1.9.
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You follow.
00:19:44.220 --> 00:19:51.339
If the national average is 1.7, Catholics have a 0.1 advantage, evangelicals have a 0.2 advantage.
00:19:51.579 --> 00:19:55.980
And as I mentioned, homeschoolers have a 1.3 advantage.
00:19:56.299 --> 00:19:57.660
What is going on here?
00:19:58.059 --> 00:19:58.779
What's going on?
00:19:58.859 --> 00:19:59.660
Do you have a comment on this?
00:19:59.819 --> 00:20:01.900
It doesn't sound like evangelicals are doing that well.
00:20:02.220 --> 00:20:09.980
By the way, mainline Protestants, mainline Protestants are 0.3 or sorry, sorry, 0.2 under the national average.
00:20:10.059 --> 00:20:14.859
So if the national average is 1.7, the mainland Protestants are like 1.5.
00:20:14.940 --> 00:20:18.379
In fact, I ran into mainline Protestant church down in Arizona.
00:20:18.539 --> 00:20:24.940
Uh it was a church at which the uh the the older woman who was recently kidnapped and we think murdered, she was attending that church.
00:20:25.019 --> 00:20:26.220
So I was just checking out the church.
00:20:26.379 --> 00:20:33.740
Like an attendance of like five or six hundred, they had one baby born that year, and I think it was like eight kids in the Sunday school.
00:20:34.140 --> 00:20:35.980
That's a mainland Protestant church.
00:20:36.140 --> 00:20:39.339
That's a dying, dead, dead, dead church.
00:20:39.579 --> 00:20:43.579
But somehow, mainland Protestants are extreme apostates.
00:20:44.059 --> 00:20:48.779
Catholics have a only 0.1 advantage on a 1.7 birth rate.
00:20:49.019 --> 00:21:00.619
And evangelicals, according to again, according to Pew Research's religious landscape study, evangelical Protestants have a 0.2 advantage, but homeschoolers are up around a 1.3, 1.4 advantage.
00:21:00.779 --> 00:21:02.539
How do you explain that, Bill?
00:21:02.859 --> 00:21:03.740
How do you explain this?
00:21:04.140 --> 00:21:15.900
Because of a biblical worldview, and and the interesting thing is even secular researchers, uh, sociologists, anthropologists recognize this and several on both ends.
00:21:16.059 --> 00:21:16.700
On both ends.
00:21:16.779 --> 00:21:24.539
I just read an article, by the way, about the the celebration of the birthday of a lady who's 112 years old down in Georgia.
00:21:25.259 --> 00:21:29.180
And of course, the question was, what do you attribute your longevity to?
00:21:29.339 --> 00:21:34.619
And hers was as typical was her faith and practice of her faith.
00:21:34.779 --> 00:21:41.099
And then the article went on to talk about how those who attend church weekly live longer.
00:21:41.740 --> 00:21:49.180
Those who attend church less than weekly but still attend church, they have a higher higher longevity.
00:21:49.500 --> 00:21:53.579
Those who don't attend church, their longevity is at the bottom.
00:21:53.819 --> 00:22:11.259
And the same thing with the starting point, and that is that those people who are Christians understand that we are to be fruitful and multiply, and that is have children and raise a godly seed to bless others.
00:22:11.819 --> 00:22:18.940
There's a great book, I've referred to it uh before, How Civilizations Die and Why Islam is dying too.
00:22:19.099 --> 00:22:30.379
Again, a secular researcher, David Goldman, and he talks about how across the world there is this birth dearth that was coined back in the 80s.
00:22:30.460 --> 00:22:38.859
I forget who coined that term, but uh the idea that we're having fewer and fewer children and therefore we're we're hurting civilizations.
00:22:39.019 --> 00:22:44.460
Civilizations collapse upon themselves when they cannot replicate.
00:22:44.700 --> 00:22:44.940
Okay.
00:22:45.500 --> 00:22:55.740
And so he says the one thing that is that is uh curious and hopeful is in the United States, and he attributes it to the homeschooling movement to Christians.
00:22:56.059 --> 00:22:56.859
He refers to homeschools.
00:22:57.019 --> 00:22:57.740
I'm pretty sure he does.
00:22:57.900 --> 00:23:05.900
I've read this book a years years ago, but he refers to Christians and specifically and homeschooling as as a beacon.
00:23:06.539 --> 00:23:17.019
And so w we need to realize that that in churches we need to encourage families uh to uh have more children.
00:23:17.819 --> 00:23:19.339
Friends, yeah, absolutely.
00:23:19.500 --> 00:23:23.420
And I want to wrap up with this there's a massive geopolitical shift going on right now.
00:23:23.500 --> 00:23:26.940
This is the biggest thing since the fall of Rome in 8476.
00:23:27.019 --> 00:23:29.500
That's why I wrote my book, Epoch, The Rise and Fall of the West.
00:23:29.740 --> 00:23:34.859
Highly recommend that you get a hold of Epoch, the Rise and Fall of the West, just to give perspective.
00:23:35.099 --> 00:23:35.740
Where are we?
00:23:35.900 --> 00:23:36.539
Where are we going?
00:23:36.619 --> 00:23:43.099
And I've attempted to do that in this last 25 minutes, but there is a massive geopolitical shift going on right now.
00:23:43.339 --> 00:23:53.900
Encourage you to Epoch the Rise and Fall of the West in a more practical book, Family Life, which actually deals with this question of whether or not Christians ought to be using birth control, conception control.
00:23:54.220 --> 00:23:55.259
Uh, I deal with that.
00:23:55.339 --> 00:24:10.140
I actually produce 16, 18 questions as to what Christians should be thinking about as they answer these questions and as they uh perceive God's values versus the world's values.
00:24:10.220 --> 00:24:11.099
And let me leave you with this.
00:24:11.180 --> 00:24:12.700
This is what Bill was just saying.
00:24:13.019 --> 00:24:17.180
God's values are this children are a blessing.
00:24:17.500 --> 00:24:29.099
And yes, yes, it turns out that homes in America are three times the size they were in 1950 while Americans are having half the children.
00:24:29.660 --> 00:24:31.900
Three times the size, half the children.
00:24:31.980 --> 00:24:33.019
What are the values?
00:24:33.339 --> 00:24:35.180
We love drywall.
00:24:35.579 --> 00:24:37.019
Go sheetrock.
00:24:37.579 --> 00:24:39.660
It's just, yeah, what do you love?
00:24:39.900 --> 00:24:41.660
I love sheetrock.
00:24:41.900 --> 00:24:42.700
You know what?
00:24:42.859 --> 00:24:46.299
I want, I want to, I want to be buried in all the sheetrock.
00:24:46.379 --> 00:24:48.059
That's that's how much I love it.
00:24:48.379 --> 00:24:50.460
Do you appreciate sheetrock?
00:24:50.779 --> 00:24:54.299
More than flesh and blood, children, the blessing of God Himself.
00:24:54.539 --> 00:24:58.059
Those are the sorts of value questions we need to be asking ourselves.
00:24:58.140 --> 00:25:01.579
I encourage you to my book, Family LifeAvailable at Generations.org.
00:25:01.740 --> 00:25:08.220
This is Kevin Swanson and Bill Jack, inviting you back again next time as we continue to lay down a vision for the next generation.
00:25:18.460 --> 00:25:21.500
This has been a production of the Generations Media Network.
00:25:21.660 --> 00:25:24.779
For more information, go to generations.org/slash media.