O TYM ODCINKU
Recorded live on Tuesday September 29, 2026 --
Julie Roginsky and Michelle Kinney are joined by Ben Lazarus, one of the best Democratic pollsters in the country, for real hopium about the midterms. Ben explains why a red wave is off the table, how a collapse in Republican turnout could make the blue wave much bigger, and why Trump's numbers are softening even among his own base.
They dig into why polling is so hard, how pollsters account for voters who won't take surveys, and why data centers have become a potent issue in some of the reddest parts of the country. Then it's a lightning round on Michigan, Minnesota, and Texas, plus a case for funding state legislative races, where every dollar goes furthest. Julie and Michelle close with the Cornell case (more on this later) and the Joe Biden story in The Atlantic.
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0:19 Welcome and intro
1:04 Ben's midterm outlook: is a blue wave coming?
6:36 Why polling is so hard
15:04 Trump's softening support among Republicans
19:30 Gas prices and swing districts
22:00 Does money still matter?
27:45 Why data centers are a political problem
35:00 Voter distrust of both parties
42:55 Finding the "double haters"
47:00 The horseshoe effect and 2028
50:10 Lightning round: Michigan, Minnesota, Texas
1:02:04 Blue Moreno hats and voting reminders
1:04:40 The Cornell case
1:11:20 Joe Biden in The Atlantic
