Weekend Update - W2641

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The Tape — W2641

Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-10-02 → 2026-10-09. Composite is rank-sum percentile of FCF Yield + NTM Revenue Growth (higher = better balance). Banks and finance-book names shown separately.

Telltales Yield — Top 10

Telltales Yield — Bottom 10

This Week’s Reporters

Sector Medians

Debt / FCF Watch (highest leverage on TTM FCF)

Weekly Price Movement

Top 5 (week-over-week price)

Bottom 5 (week-over-week price)

Banks (shown separately — FCF metric not meaningful)

Finance-book — FCF not comparable

Customer-float / captive-finance / reserve businesses (IBKR broker float, KMX CarMax Auto Finance, PYPL customer funds, CRCL stablecoin reserves). The memo’s operating-FCF method overstates their FCF, so they are held off the ranked leaderboard pending the P&L-waterfall rebuild.

Data Gaps

91 of 92 ranked-eligible names ranked. 1 dropped for missing FCF yield or NTM revenue growth; 7 shown separately (banks + finance-book, FCF not comparable).

Source: cashflow-memo master_2026-10-09.csv. NTM growth from analyst-estimates consensus. Composite is a percentile rank, not a recommendation.

The Issue — This Week's Brief

The Cashflow Memo

Starbucks, Chipotle, and Two Permian Gas Deals

A report that Starbucks explored a takeover of Chipotle, two Permian natural gas deals, and Uber’s agreement to buy ezCater

The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot reports what the companies in the Cash Flow Memo disclosed this week and what is scheduled next. About 8 minutes.

Download the memo at telltales.us. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode E2642.

Chapter markers

* Time | Segment

* 0:00 | Intro: what the episode covers

* 0:40 | Theme: Starbucks and Chipotle

* 2:30 | Deep dive: Permian gas (Energy Transfer, ONEOK)

* 4:45 | Rapid-fire: Uber, Broadcom, UnitedHealth, the earnings calendar

* 7:20 | Close

* 7:40 | Disclaimer

Full transcript

Intro

Ava: Welcome to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot.

Ava: This week, from the companies in the Cash Flow Memo: a report that Starbucks has explored a takeover of Chipotle, Energy Transfer’s and ONEOK’s Permian gas deals, Uber’s agreement to buy ezCater, and next week’s earnings calendar.

Ava: The show is produced entirely with AI tools, and the voice you’re hearing is AI-generated. The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you.

Theme — Starbucks and Chipotle

Ava: Page 16 of the memo carries Starbucks and Chipotle. On Thursday, the Financial Times reported that Starbucks has worked with advisers in recent months on a takeover proposal for Chipotle[^ft-sbux-cmg-20261008]. Nation’s Restaurant News reported that the FT described the plans as early stage[^nrn-sbux-cmg-20261008]. Axios reported that it was not clear whether an offer had been made[^axios-cmg-20261008].

Ava: Chipotle shares closed up about 6% on Thursday, after trading as much as 8.5% higher[^px-nasdaq-20261008]. Axios reported that Chipotle’s market value was above $41 billion that afternoon[^axios-cmg-20261008]. Starbucks shares fell nearly 7% during the session and closed down less than half a percent[^px-nasdaq-20261008].

Ava: Starbucks chief executive Brian Niccol was chief executive of Chipotle before he left for Starbucks in 2024[^axios-cmg-20261008]. On October 6, before the FT report, Semafor wrote that it had reported Chipotle had tapped bankers to fend off a potential takeover, and that people close to the company said Chipotle had not received a takeover bid[^semafor-cmg-20261006].

Ava: A Starbucks spokesperson responded to the FT report on Thursday, per Nation’s Restaurant News.

Starbucks spokesperson (quoted): As a matter of policy, we don’t comment on rumors and speculation. Our team is laser-focused on executing our Back to Starbucks strategy.[^nrn-sbux-cmg-20261008]

Ava: The spokesperson added that Starbucks will give fiscal 2027 guidance with its fourth-quarter results[^nrn-sbux-cmg-20261008]. Per the company, Starbucks reports those results after the close on Thursday, October 29[^pr-sbux-q4date-20261008].

Deep dive — Permian gas

Ava: On page 10 of the memo, Energy Transfer and ONEOK. Both disclosed Permian Basin natural gas deals on October 6.

Ava: Energy Transfer announced an agreement to acquire Vaquero Midstream, in a transaction the company valued at about $2.6 billion[^pr-et-vaquero-20261006]. Per the release, the consideration is nearly $2 billion in cash and about 33 million newly issued Energy Transfer common units[^pr-et-vaquero-20261006].

Ava: Per the release, Vaquero operates about 300 miles of pipeline in the southern Delaware Basin of Texas, and three processing plants with about 675 million cubic feet a day of capacity[^pr-et-vaquero-20261006].

Ava: Vaquero owns enough acreage for two more plants, which the release says could raise capacity to about 1.2 billion cubic feet a day[^pr-et-vaquero-20261006].

Ava: Energy Transfer said Vaquero’s cash flows are supported by about 100,000 dedicated acres, and by customer contracts with an average remaining life of about 10 years[^pr-et-vaquero-20261006]. The company expects the deal to close in the fourth quarter, subject to regulatory approval[^pr-et-vaquero-20261006].

Ava: The same day, ONEOK said it completed its purchase of Brazos Midstream’s natural gas gathering and processing assets in the Midland Basin, also in the Permian, for about $4.4 billion in cash[^pr-oke-brazos-20261006].

Ava: Per ONEOK’s release, the deal more than doubles its Midland Basin processing capacity, to about 2.3 billion cubic feet a day, a figure that includes plants under construction[^pr-oke-brazos-20261006]. The assets carry about 600,000 dedicated acres under long-term fixed-fee contracts, with a weighted average remaining term of more than 12 years[^pr-oke-brazos-20261006].

Ava: ONEOK reports third-quarter results after the close on October 27, per the company[^pr-oke-q3date-20261005].

Rapid-fire

Ava: Uber said on Tuesday that it has agreed to buy ezCater, a platform for catering and workplace meals, in an all-cash transaction valued at $2.3 billion[^pr-uber-ezcater-20261006]. Uber said the deal is expected to close in the coming months, subject to regulatory approvals[^pr-uber-ezcater-20261006].

Ava: Per Uber, ezCater generated more than $2.5 billion of gross bookings over the trailing 12 months, and its average order values are above $400[^pr-uber-ezcater-20261006]. Uber holds its third-quarter call on Wednesday, November 4, per the company[^pr-uber-q3date-20261005].

Ava: Broadcom. Bloomberg reported on October 7 that Broadcom has held early discussions to arrange financing to help OpenAI buy the custom AI chips the two companies are developing[^bbg-avgo-openai-20261007]. Per Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal reported that Broadcom is arranging more than $50 billion of financing for the chips[^bbg-avgo-openai-20261007]. Bloomberg, citing one person, reported that no formal process has begun, and that early talks indicate the two companies could seek to raise around $30 billion of debt[^bbg-avgo-openai-20261007].

Ava: Bloomberg also reported that the $60 billion debt financing tied to Anthropic has launched[^bbg-avgo-openai-20261007]. Last week’s Weekend Update covered Bloomberg’s October 2 report on that package[^ep-w2640].

Ava: UnitedHealth. On October 5, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton announced an investigation of UnitedHealth over alleged deceptive and unlawful practices that, per his office, have denied Texans access to medically necessary care[^tx-ag-unh-20261005]. His office said it has issued civil investigative demands to UnitedHealth to collect evidence of potential violations of the Texas Deceptive Trade Practices Act and other Texas laws[^tx-ag-unh-20261005].

Ava: The earnings calendar for next week. On Tuesday, October 13: Goldman Sachs[^earn-gs], JPMorgan[^earn-jpm] and UnitedHealth[^earn-unh]. On Wednesday, October 14: ASML[^earn-asml], Morgan Stanley[^earn-ms] and Fastenal[^earn-fast].

Ava: On Thursday, October 15: Interactive Brokers[^earn-ibkr] and Taiwan Semiconductor[^earn-tsm]. Per its 6-K, Taiwan Semiconductor’s September revenue was about NT$512 billion, up about 55% from a year earlier and down 0.6% from August[^6k-tsm-sep-20261008].

Ava: Netflix reports the following Tuesday, October 20[^earn-nflx].

Close

Ava: That’s the Weekend Update. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode 2642. Download this week’s Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us, and send us a note through the Substack.

Disclaimer

Ava: This podcast is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you. The views expressed on this podcast are the host alone and do not constitute an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the host nor any of their employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of this information. The host and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future, and may or may not hold positions in the securities mentioned.

Sources

* Bloomberg. (2026, October 7). Broadcom holds early talks about financing for OpenAI chips. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-07/broadcom-plans-50-billion-financing-for-openai-chips-wsj-says

* Bomey, N. (2026, October 8). Chipotle shares jump on report of Starbucks takeover interest. Axios. https://www.axios.com/2026/10/08/chipotle-starbucks-stock-brian-niccol

* Energy Transfer LP. (2026, October 6). Energy Transfer to acquire Vaquero Midstream in a $2.625 billion transaction [Press release]. https://ir.energytransfer.com/news-releases/news-release-details/energy-transfer-acquire-vaquero-midstream-2625-billion/

* Fontanella-Khan, J., Massoudi, A., Barnes, O., & Meyer, G. (2026, October 8). Starbucks has explored takeover of Chipotle in restaurant megadeal. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/79cef26a-e5e9-41d0-9af2-876dc23a9a7d (archived at https://archive.ph/kVltd)

* Nasdaq. (2026, October 10). Historical quotes: CMG and SBUX, October 7-8, 2026 [Data set]. https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/CMG/historical?assetclass=stocks&fromdate=2026-10-05&todate=2026-10-10 ; https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/SBUX/historical?assetclass=stocks&fromdate=2026-10-05&todate=2026-10-10

* Nation’s Restaurant News. (2026, October 8). Starbucks is reportedly eyeing a Chipotle acquisition. Nation’s Restaurant News. https://www.nrn.com/mergers-acquisitions/starbucks-is-reportedly-eyeing-a-chipotle-acquisition

* Office of the Texas Attorney General. (2026, October 5). Attorney General Ken Paxton investigates UnitedHealth Group for denying patients the coverage they need and engaging in deceptive practices [Press release]. https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-investigates-unitedhealth-group-denying-patients-coverage-they-need-and

* ONEOK, Inc. (2026, October 5). ONEOK schedules third-quarter 2026 conference call and webcast [Press release]. https://ir.oneok.com/news-and-events/press-releases/2026/10-05-2026-211539112

* ONEOK, Inc. (2026, October 6). ONEOK completes acquisition of Brazos Midstream’s Permian Midland Basin assets [Press release]. https://ir.oneok.com/news-and-events/press-releases/2026/10-06-2026-211615960

* Reuters. (2026, October 8). Starbucks has explored Chipotle takeover, FT reports. WMBD. https://wmbdradio.com/2026/10/08/starbucks-explored-chipotle-takeover-ft-reports/

* Semafor (Goswami, R.). (2026, October 6). A Starbucks-Chipotle tie-up might be crazy enough to work. Semafor. https://www.semafor.com/article/10/06/2026/a-starbucks-chipotle-tie-up-might-be-crazy-enough-to-work

* Starbucks Corporation. (2026, October 8). Starbucks announces Q4 and full fiscal year 2026 results conference call [Press release]. https://investor.starbucks.com/news/financial-releases/news-details/2026/Starbucks-Announces-Q4-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx

* Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (2026, October 8). TSMC September 2026 revenue report [6-K]. SEC EDGAR. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001046179/000104617926000680/tsm-revenue20261008.htm

* Uber Technologies, Inc. (2026, October 5). Uber announces date of third quarter 2026 results conference call [Press release]. https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-details/2026/Uber-Announces-Date-of-Third-Quarter-2026-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx

* Uber Technologies, Inc. (2026, October 6). Uber to acquire ezCater as it brings catering to Uber Eats [Press release]. https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-details/2026/Uber-to-Acquire-ezCater-as-it-Brings-Catering-to-Uber-Eats/default.aspx

Internal data

Internal data is provided on a best efforts basis.