DHUnplugged #819: Counterfactualzzzz

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MARKET MOVE
- On the heels of SoftBank Group Corp. seeking the equivalent of more than $11 billion in a junk bond deal to fund investments in ChatGPT creator OpenAI.
- The company is looking to issue $10 billion of dollar securities and €1 billion of euro debt to fund a follow-on investment in OpenAI expected to close next month.
- SoftBank and its lead banks are sounding out investors on potential pricing for the proposed junk bond offering, with yields that would be records for SoftBank in those specific currencies and tenors if priced at those levels.
- Could it be that simple why NAZ 100 is at new highs?

BESSENT'S "COUNTERFACTUAL" DEFENSE
- This is darling...
- Rep. Jim Himes questioned Bessent on September 15 at a House Financial Services Committee hearing.
- Himes: "The 10-year went up by 20 basis points. How can you say it was successful?"
- Bessent: "Well, there is a counterfactual of what would it have done."
- Bessent added: "We then proceeded to have the two most successful Treasury auctions that we've had in 20 years."
- Goes into the Alternative Facts and Fake News Category.

BESSENT'S MYSTERY BANK
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a large unnamed bank would be sanctioned over Iran.
- The administration has targeted Iranian oil, shipping, finance and weapons networks.
- "Operation Economic Outcast" had already targeted nearly 60 entities, people and vessels.
- Treasury later sanctioned Russia's VTB Bank over alleged Iran-related sanctions evasion.

GOLDMAN: MAYBE CONSUMERS ARE JUST UNHAPPY
- Michigan consumer sentiment fell nearly 8% from August and 13% year over year.
- Goldman says weak sentiment may increasingly reflect broader unhappiness, not just economic conditions.
- "Very happy" Americans fell to 23% in 2024 from 31% in 2016.
- Inflation still weighs on confidence, but distrust and pessimism may also be distorting surveys.
- Goldman says sentiment may be becoming less useful for predicting actual activity.

GREENLAND DEAL
- Trump announced a deal expanding the U.S. security role in Greenland while it remains Danish territory.
---So it seems we are not going to "take it"
- The agreement aims to settle the dispute over greater U.S. strategic control.
- Rubio said the U.S. has greater financial and military capacity to defend Greenland.
- Arctic security, Russia, China and critical minerals remain the core issues.
- See Greenland Energy (GLND), Greenland Mines (GRML) and Critical Metals (CRML)

SMART GLASSES MEET THE REGULATORS
- Paris prosecutors opened an investigation into alleged secret filming using camera-equipped smart glasses.
- Meta-EssilorLuxottica glasses hold roughly 76% of the global market.
- About 7 million units were sold last year.
- French regulators are getting workplace complaints and questions over whether the devices can be banned.
- Australia and some UK cinemas are also moving toward restrictions.

EUROPE LOSES SAUDI BARRELS
- Saudi Aramco told European customers they will receive no crude allocations next month.
- The cutoff follows an attack on the East-West pipeline.
- European refiners are scrambling for replacement barrels, lifting North Sea premiums.
- Saudi Arabia is working to restore pipeline capacity and reroute supply.
- Oil still fell for a third straight session Friday.

BUFFETT LEAVES THE CHAIR
- Warren Buffett, 96, stepped down as Berkshire chairman and became chairman emeritus.
- Howard Buffett becomes non-executive chairman; Greg Abel is already CEO.
- Berkshire is worth roughly $1.1 trillion.
- Cash stood at $364.7 billion at the end of June.
- Shares barely moved, suggesting investors saw the transition as expected.

WHITE HOUSE MEDIA BAN
- Trump said CNN, MS NOW and Politico would be banned from the White House.
- He cited what he called persistent false reporting.
- The move raises First Amendment and press-access issues.
- It escalates an already long-running fight with major media outlets.

CREAM CHEESE INNOVATION CYCLE
- Kraft Heinz launched Mike's Hot Honey, salted caramel and cranberry orange Philadelphia flavors.
- Mike's Hot Honey launches at Walmart first.
- Philadelphia plans about 10 new varieties over the next two years.
- Brand investment is up 63% versus 2025.
- Spending on new flavors has quadrupled.

MICROSOFT WRITES RULES FOR THE MACHINES
- Microsoft published a draft AI code focused on keeping humans in control.
- Systems must accept correction and shutdown.
- The rules bar help with weapons and other dangerous areas.
- Microsoft also says AI should not claim consciousness, personhood or legal rights.
- Mustafa Suleyman called it a "constitution" for future models.

CHATGPT INVENTS WITNESSES
- A New Mexico lawyer filed a murder appeal containing fabricated witnesses and police testimony.
- The material was generated with ChatGPT.
- The state Supreme Court fined attorney Stephen Aarons $5,000.
- The court cited "false testimony from wholly fabricated witnesses."
- Aarons said he expected ChatGPT to produce a "bulletproof summary."

RICH PEOPLE NEWS

BENTLEY'S $300K ELECTRIC SUV
- Bentley is preparing its first fully electric SUV, expected around $250,000-$300,000.
- The Torcal is scheduled to debut September 23.
- Bentley isn't using traditional fake engine noise.
- Instead, its EV soundtrack reportedly uses drums, bass guitar and viola.
- Expected range is more than 300 miles with ultra-fast charging.

MIAMI AIRPORT GETS A $5,000 "SUPER LOUNGE" - LET THEM EAT CAKE
- PS opened a private terminal at Miami International Airport this summer.
- It operates from the restored former Pan Am headquarters.
- The Salon starts at about $1,295 per person.
- A private suite runs about $4,950 for up to four travelers.
- Guests get private TSA screening, customs, luxury lounges and direct tarmac transfers to the aircraft.
- The private suites include marble bathrooms, balconies and private lounge space.
- It is essentially private-jet treatment while still flying commercially.