OVER DEZE AFLEVERING
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, printed 3.0% this morning against 3.3% last month. But inflation didn't actually cool. The BEA changed how it measures prices for legal services, software, computer accessories and portfolio management, and revised last month's number down to 3.0% as well, so nothing changed month over month. It's still good for markets: the odds of no rate hike in October jumped to 65% on CME FedWatch in a single day, and the 2-year yield is already slowing down. Bitcoin bounced on the news and sits around $84K. My base case for the next three months is $90K, the middle of the range between the 50-week SMA support at $78K and resistance near $95K. If we get to $90K or $91K fast in October, I'm rotating my altcoins back into Bitcoin. Do you think the Fed is done hiking?
Chapters:
(00:00) What's on the show: Bitcoin targets and the Fed
(02:48) The core PCE print: 3.3% revised to 3.0%
(08:36) What the BEA took out of the calculation
(12:14) The Fed's own inflation projections
(14:37) CME FedWatch: odds of no October hike jump to 65%
(17:14) How Bitcoin, gold and the S&P reacted
(19:13) Why the 2-year yield matters more than the 10-year
(22:41) Early bull run, no reason to be bearish
(24:58) Bitcoin's big quarter: the 90K target
(30:37) A bullish quarter, then a consolidation quarter
(34:03) The 50-week SMA floor at 78K
(35:14) No two red years in a row: 87.5K and 93.3K
(39:36) My base case for the next three months
(40:51) Q&A: to the moon in October?
(43:10) What happens above 95K
(45:18) Where altcoins really are in the cycle
(48:37) Altcoins vs the 2023 playbook
(53:06) My large-cap altcoin holdings
(55:29) Robinhood chain plays
(1:01:14) Why I avoid the new launchpads
(1:02:33) Proof-of-work mining: the next narrative
(1:07:59) Q&A: my World Liberty Financial trade
(1:15:45) Q&A: buying mining coins on SafeTrade
(1:22:35) Q&A: have I sold my Bitcoin?
(1:22:49) Q&A: avoiding the round-trip trap
(1:24:53) Where this bull run tops out
(1:26:05) Q&A: why rotate into Bitcoin, not stablecoins
