OVER DEZE AFLEVERING
The Anthropic IPO is confirmed: the terms are filed, the roadshow is live, and it will be one of the biggest listings ever, a little smaller than SpaceX. I've been saying this is the catalyst to watch, because Wall Street needs a bullish market into a listing this size so the banks and the biggest investors have exit liquidity, which is why I don't expect the AI trade to break before the IPO date. October CPI came in hotter than expected, but that's a reading of the past. Oil tells the future, and Brent is back below $95 with WTI below $88 and still falling. On Bitcoin, I'm still long from $75K down to $73K with an average entry around $74K, a stop on a daily close at $72K and $80K as the target, and the 200-week SMA near $68K is where I'd call it crazy cheap. Also on the stream: MARA selling Bitcoin to fund AI data centers, Elizabeth Warren taking over the Senate Banking Committee, and the MSCI decision on Bitcoin treasury companies like Strategy.
Chapters:
(00:00) Intro
(00:48) Why the Anthropic IPO is the catalyst to watch
(05:13) MARA sold Bitcoin to fund AI data centers
(06:16) Elizabeth Warren takes the banking committee
(10:39) MSCI's rule on Bitcoin treasury companies like Strategy
(13:43) October CPI came in hotter than expected
(17:22) 89% odds of a December rate hike, mostly priced in
(21:55) Oil tells the future, CPI tells the past
(29:01) Why I won't turn bearish on 60K calls
(33:34) Anthropic's IPO is announced
(36:14) Why the IPO is bullish: exit liquidity
(38:15) The Nasdaq level to watch: the 200-day SMA
(41:17) Don't be short AI into the IPO
(43:22) Big tech buys in with a $26 billion private placement
(44:55) Amodei's IPO livestream with Jamie Dimon on Friday
(46:28) Why I'm not investing in the IPO
(47:29) Why I expect a Nasdaq bounce into the IPO
(50:00) Why I'm still long Bitcoin from 75K to 73K
(53:27) Why I wait for the weekly candle close
(58:38) My trade: entry at 74, stop at 72, target 80
(1:02:44) Why I don't see Bitcoin below 58K
(1:06:16) 68K, the 200-week SMA, is my absolute bottom
(1:08:52) Does the 200-week moving average work on the S&P 500?
(1:10:55) When I'd de-risk spot Bitcoin
(1:11:56) Do we need extreme fear for a bottom?
(1:14:35) Wrap-up
