OVER DEZE AFLEVERING
War, oil spikes, and a transition at the Federal Reserve contributed to a volatile first half of 2026, but the relative calm at the year’s mid-point is an opportune time to examine some of the forces that could drive markets in the coming quarters. U.S. Economist Matt Bush and Market Strategist Maria Giraldo join Macro Markets to discuss the investment implications of our latest Quarterly Macro Themes, including the growth engine and inflationary impact of AI investment, expectations for rates and spreads, the wild card of energy prices, and more.
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“Space X is the new proxy for risk appetite.”
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Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. In general, the value of a fixed-income security falls when interest rates rise and rises when interest rates fall. Longer term bonds are more sensitive to interest rate changes and subject to greater volatility than those with shorter maturities. High yield and unrated debt securities are at a greater risk of default than investment grade bonds and may be less liquid, which may increase volatility. Private debt investments are generally considered illiquid and not quoted on any exchange; thus they are difficult to value. The process of valuing investments for which reliable market quotations are not available is based on inherent uncertainties and may not be accurate. Further, the level of discretion used by an investment manager to value private debt securities could lead to conflicts of interest.
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