ဤအပိုင်းအကြောင်း
n this episode of the Tel Aviv Diary Podcast, I am joined once again by veteran Washington diplomatic correspondent Laura Rozen for a wide-ranging discussion of the renewed confrontation between the United States and Iran, the danger that Israel could be drawn back into the fighting, and the growing political uncertainty in both Washington and Jerusalem.
We begin with the immediate question facing Israelis: will Iran decide to attack Israel, and will the Netanyahu government choose to enter the conflict even if Tehran continues to avoid a direct confrontation? From Tel Aviv, where the computer remains packed beside the door in case the sirens sound, I explain why most Israelis have little appetite for another round of war, even as Netanyahu may believe renewed military action could serve him politically before the election.
Laura and I examine the surprisingly limited Iranian response to sustained American attacks, the pressure Iran can exert through shipping lanes and oil markets, and the possibility that Tehran may prefer economic disruption to a direct military escalation. We also discuss the collapse of the latest U.S.-Iran understanding, the ambiguities surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and the dangers of attempting to negotiate highly complex agreements through vague memoranda and intermediaries who may not speak for all the parties involved.
The conversation then turns to President Donald Trump and the increasingly unpredictable political environment in the United States. Laura describes what she is seeing from Washington, including the administration’s focus on domestic political enemies, immigration enforcement, the approaching midterm elections and growing concerns about whether Trump will accept political setbacks. We discuss the extent to which foreign policy decisions are being shaped by domestic politics, personal grievances and the president’s own perception of strength.
We also explore the broader regional picture. In Lebanon, new diplomatic efforts may allow the Lebanese Armed Forces to move into areas currently held by Israel, but serious doubts remain over whether the Lebanese government has the power to confront Hezbollah without provoking internal conflict. In Syria, Israeli forces continue to hold strategic positions, including territory near Mount Hermon, while Israeli officials remain deeply suspicious of Syria’s new leadership. The position of the Druze community adds another layer of complexity, linking domestic Israeli pressure with events across the Syrian border.
Turkey is another growing concern. Laura asks why Israel views President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as a potential threat and what the possible sale of F-35 aircraft to Turkey would mean for Israel’s military advantage. We discuss the long deterioration in Israeli-Turkish relations, Erdoğan’s ambitions in the region and the extent to which genuine strategic concerns have become intertwined with Netanyahu’s political need to emphasize external enemies.
The conversation also examines the future of Saudi-Israeli normalization following the sudden death of Senator Lindsey Graham, one of Washington’s leading advocates for a regional agreement. We consider whether normalization remains possible under Netanyahu and whether a different Israeli government could reopen the path toward an agreement with Riyadh.
A major portion of the episode focuses on Israel’s deteriorating position in the United States. Laura argues that Israel’s greatest problem may not be organized opposition or traditional anti-Israel groups, but the loss of sympathy among ordinary Americans who no longer feel emotionally connected to Israel. We discuss the damage caused by the prolonged Gaza war, the influence of images from the conflict, changing attitudes among younger Americans and the difficulty of rebuilding bipartisan support once it has been lost.
We also return to the central strategic question of the Iran war. The first round of fighting demonstrated Israel’s military superiority and left Iran economically and militarily weakened. In my view, that was the moment to negotiate from a position of strength. Instead, the conflict expanded, the threat of renewed war was converted into an actual war, and the possibility of regime change was pursued without a realistic plan for what would follow.
Laura and I close by reflecting on the frustration of journalists and analysts who can describe the dangers but have little ability to influence the leaders making the decisions. Both Israel and the United States may eventually have the opportunity to rebuild damaged institutions, restore public trust and change political direction—but the scale of that task will be enormous.
This is a conversation about war, diplomacy, political survival and the uncertainty of living through events whose outcome no one can confidently predict.
Topics discussed include:
Iran’s limited response to American attacksThe risk of Israel entering the warThe future of the Strait of HormuzOil prices and pressure on the Trump administrationThe collapse of U.S.-Iran negotiationsTrump, the midterms and American political instabilityIsrael’s military presence in Lebanon and SyriaThe Druze community and Israel’s Syrian policyTurkey, Erdoğan and the possible sale of F-35sSaudi-Israeli normalization after Lindsey GrahamIsrael’s deteriorating standing in the United StatesThe prolonged Gaza war and the loss of American supportNetanyahu’s political calculations before the electionWhether the United States and Iran have any path back to diplomacy
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