SHARP NFL Week 8 Bets: Ravens-Bills, Chiefs-Broncos and more

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Polymarket. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional bettor, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
00:00:25
Speaker 2: Chad, how are we doing? Brother.
00:00:29
Speaker 1: Sports are the freaking best. We're not from Milwaukee, but I fell in love with this Brewers team, stayed up way past my bedtime watching these World Series games. My favorite celebration in all of sports is when teams win the World Series and the reaction shots of players throwing their gloves in the air and they all run to the pitcher's mound and It brings me such joy. It looks like they are kids again playing Little League. And it is just such overwhelming happiness. And then before we get on the call, on the show, we're chatting with Matt Mitchell, who lives in Milwaukee, who is an avowed Brewers fan, who's raising his family in Milwaukee, who woke up his young son, The past two nights to see the Brewers win the World Series and the kids suffered heartache in the 12th inning the first time and last night got to see the final three outs and now they will go to a parade. And this kid is old enough. Monty is old enough. He'll remember this. Like he's what it, Matt Mitchell, he's probably nine years old right now. He will remember this for the rest of his life. He's old enough to get it. It's so beautiful. I know I'm being sentimental, but I freaking love it.
00:02:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was a can't lose World Series.
00:02:07
Speaker 3: We had two teams that were going to win their first World Series. And we talk all the time of football that, you know, someday it's going to be Cleveland versus Detroit or the Bills versus Detroit. These long, true, passionate fan bases. And I don't know about you, but for me, it always rings true in my head.
00:02:27
Speaker 2: I think of past fans.
00:02:28
Speaker 3: Ones that couldn't make, I know that happened to a lot of Cubs fans, but like immediately thought of Bob Uecker, like most legendary people ever.
00:02:36
Speaker 2: I have some really funny stories about him.
00:02:40
Speaker 3: He was, you know, one of a kind people, someone that I was in the same room as, I never got to speak to personally, but you know, I think of him as like this massive personality and this.
00:02:51
Speaker 2: Diehard Milwaukee fan. And I think he passed away like a year ago or something like that.
00:02:55
Speaker 1: January of 25, I think.
00:02:57
Speaker 3: Yeah like he was like 90 ish and you think of those guys who just you know you probably never missed a game of this milwaukee team and you know you can say i know it's corny the angels in the outfit all that stuff but it's like they felt like a team of destiny they really did we said that two weeks two or three weeks ago this milwaukee team felt like something special so yeah between matt mitchell you know all these brewer fans it was just it was great i mean the ratings were big too so people can't you know complain about small market teams the whole thing and You know, if we are heading into a lockdown, a lockout for baseball this upcoming year, what a high note to end on. It really was, where it's just two franchises that never won it, got to it. And yeah, it should have been a sweep, 1-4-1. What a way to end it for the Brewers and their fans.
00:03:44
Speaker 1: As they say in one of my favorite movies, how can you not be romantic about baseball? It's just, it's great. It's so tense. Those games are just phenomenal. Meanwhile, breaking news right before we're coming on air, my phone is blowing up because the Chicago Bears have traded two first round picks and a fourth round pick for one of our favorite players in the NFL. A guy who single-handedly sometimes makes us reevaluate whether or not we want to bet on the Tennessee Titans in a positive way. We are talking about grown man strength, red armband Jeffrey Simmons is going to play for the Chicago Bears. Giving up a lot, but I freaking love it. I was just texting with my kid about this. And to me, this is the Bears knowing the window is short, knowing they have so much talent, knowing that there are opportunities in the NFC to grab hold of this conference. And they got to go for it. So I love the gumption. I love the risk-taking. I love the move. You're getting a stupendous player to come and really have an impact on the defense. I'm overwhelmed with joy. The sports just keeps giving today.
00:05:11
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't hate it because it is a great player at a great position. It's not like it's Sauce Gardner, right? And you're not just lighting these draft picks on fire. My only pushback is the window– has never been more open for the next 10 to 15 years.
00:05:27
Speaker 2: That's the only thing I don't get.
00:05:28
Speaker 3: You have the coach, you have the quarterback, this, this whole misconstruction of you need to win while the QB still in the rookie contract. This isn't, this is not true. We have the data. I mean, we we've seen who was the last Superbowl winner, Sam Donald. He's not a rookie contract. Who was before him?
00:05:44
Speaker 2: Jalen hurts. He wasn't on a rookie contract.
00:05:47
Speaker 3: I know it's him in my homes. They pushed the money down the line, but the bears could do the same thing. So, That was my only thing I didn't really get where it's just, yeah, the league's wide.
00:05:55
Speaker 2: Open this year. When will it not be for Caleb Williams and your head coach?
00:06:01
Speaker 3: It just feels like you guys have the pieces. But, yeah, you have a chance to go out and win the best he tackles in all football. Give him up a lot of assets, but you go get him, right?
00:06:11
Speaker 2: It's a key position.
00:06:12
Speaker 3: So, to me, normally I would not be a big fan of it, but you're talking about one of the best– Two best D tackles in all of football.
00:06:20
Speaker 2: Total game changer. And your defense has nothing up the middle.
00:06:23
Speaker 3: So, yeah, like you said, got to be excited and looking forward for the prospects of this Bears team.
00:06:30
Speaker 1: I'm so happy. It's just a glorious, glorious morning.
00:06:36
Speaker 2: You know what else might bring you some joy?
00:06:37
Speaker 1: What's that?
00:06:38
Speaker 2: Something came in the mail for me today.
00:06:41
Speaker 1: What'd you get?
00:06:43
Speaker 2: The Game by Peter King. Oh, dude. Dude. Don't psych you out.
00:06:47
Speaker 3: I was just messing with Chad. Chad sent me his book in the mail, but it didn't come yet. But Peter King's book.
00:06:54
Speaker 1: Dude, I'm reading the book right now. It's great.
00:06:58
Speaker 2: It's great.
00:06:59
Speaker 1: Peter King is my first job out of college was fact checking Peter King. He is no joke. He is the nicest, kindest, most well-respected person. guy I've met in all of my years in media. Peter King is so nice that when I was living in the city, he wrote me a recommendation when I was trying to buy an apartment in New York City. Like the guy is just, I can't speak more highly of him. And he's got such a, everyone should buy the book. He's got such a unique way of telling stories. And the way he writes is the way he speaks. And so you're so comfortable and it's so intimate. And the stories he tells in this book are so, they're such great football stories and it's traces the history of the modern NFL, which he was there for everything. And so he's got stories about Bill Walsh crying in a conference room with Eddie DiBartolo and Carmen policy. He's got stories about being in a, in a hotel room with Deon Sanders, as he's trying to figure out, is he going to play professional baseball or professional football? He's in the room where they are debating if Joe Montana should come back and be the starting quarterback after Steve Young had won an MVP. And it goes on and on and on. He's so connected. And I fact-checked so many of his stories. I've heard so many intimate details of people's lives because of what Peter King was able to get from them And then they will sit with me and say, I can't believe I told Peter King this. But you can because Peter King is so gracious and warm. You get so comfortable. You want to share with him everything. And the book is freaking awesome. You'll love it. You'll love it.
00:08:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that was just a joke.
00:08:57
Speaker 3: He has no idea who I am compared to Chad.
00:08:59
Speaker 2: This was just simply sent by his agents or whoever are managing his books. And yeah, Chad's right.
00:09:04
Speaker 3: If you're a fan of football, I would say since the 1980s to 2020– Peter King was footballing, man, was always on the inside, always had info and was so great at walking that line of giving up information, but not showing his full hand because he doesn't want people to know where he's getting the information from.
00:09:21
Speaker 2: So true masterclass. And just I was going to be a small segue into that. I'm an idiot.
00:09:28
Speaker 3: Most people listen to the show. I am very gifted at what I do at sports betting. But my core, I am very dumb and I will say dumb things. I appreciate all the fans who ever reach out to me and say, hey, you said this.
00:09:39
Speaker 2: You're an idiot. You were wrong. Two things will knock out super quick. Jared Goff, he's great against the Blitz. I misspoke. My bad.
00:09:47
Speaker 3: Number two, Baker Mayfield did hurt his throwing hand. It wasn't his not throwing hand. Those are the two things I heard from a ton of people.
00:09:53
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, people. We talk a lot for a living.
00:09:56
Speaker 3: This is not early in the morning for Chad, but early in the morning for me. So, yes, anytime I say something dumb, please message me. I'm happy to correct myself. I'm not trying to mislead people in any way on this show.
00:10:07
Speaker 1: Oh, my God. I'm so glad you brought that up because I was going to bring both of those things up, especially when we talked about the Lions and the Vikings, which we should get to. but you're a pro. I appreciate you doing that. Let's talk about what we're going to do today. It's Thursday, NFL week eight. We got sharp calls. We got brass balls. We got our underdog and favorite round Robbins. We've got Simon's biggest bets, sharp versus square, our discord grouper.
00:10:35
Speaker 2: Of the week.
00:10:36
Speaker 1: We will narrow down our final five picks for the free $ 25, 000 NFL pick them contest. All right, Simon, every week, we're going to discuss our picks on Tuesdays, And by Thursday, you've gotten an earful. I've gotten an earful from professional bettors, what they like, what they don't like, what they didn't agree with. It's time for Sharp Calls.
00:11:01
Speaker 2: Who's there?
00:11:02
Speaker 3: I'm talking.
00:11:03
Speaker 2: Ring, ring, telephone ring.
00:11:05
Speaker 1: Somebody said, baby, what you doing?
00:11:10
Speaker 2: Let's start with the Thursday game. It's pretty split.
00:11:15
Speaker 3: Between pros i know a lot of pros are on green bay and a lot of pros are on the panthers and that's a line i won't be shocked to see if it gets the four just there's just so much respect the money right now coming in on green bay especially guys i've talked to where they want the three and they've been trying to be patient with it but i think it's it's it's at the point now where they realize they're never going to get there they might as well grab the three and a half so yeah it's a game where we both love carolina i'm happy to go against these other pro groups you know it's not defended on one side or the other We talked about that Ravens line was such a pro line, plus three and a half. You're basically just taking it just in case Lamar comes back. So it's another game early in the week. Lazy pros like me are just going to take that Ravens number and just say, well, if he's back, this is what, two and a half, three? That's this number where it should be in a very desperate Ravens team having Lamar back. And, you know, another game that jumped out, big conversation this week that wasn't really split. tons of love by the pros and the jets. And we saw that number go from plus one and a half right back to minus one and a half. So hopefully you could have grabbed that plus number or tease it up to seven and a half, whatever you want to do with it. But I don't think we ever get back to that plus number on the jets. I just think there's too much respect and love about these pro bettors. Again, we're on the other side of tons of pro money on Pittsburgh guys.
00:12:26
Speaker 2: I really respect, really love Pittsburgh.
00:12:29
Speaker 3: And I told you I on a normal week, I would get it. But if you're talking about team flying across the Atlantic ocean and And now playing against a divisional foe that beat them early in the year, I just can't get there. So that's going to be a fun one to break down. Obviously, I'm pretty split on that one. This Detroit-Minnesota game, Barry, split. No tons of pro money. On Detroit, same thing. I think what most of the general public is looking at is that just they don't trust Kyler, don't trust that Vikings offense, but I keep pushing back against them at plus three and a half.
00:13:02
Speaker 2: You don't have to. You're getting the hook.
00:13:04
Speaker 3: Like you can trust the defense with that type of number. So that's a really fun other game to debate. Another game that shocked me, talking to pros, tons of guys I really respect that love the Rams against the Chargers. So that was one I didn't see coming where it's like I thought it was going to be all pros versus shows the public all over the Rams and the pros all over this Chargers line. But that's actually a pretty split between different groups, which shocked me.
00:13:30
Speaker 2: Comes a shock to no one. That Jaguars game, we talked about it. It was 7.5.
00:13:34
Speaker 3: It's run all the way up to 10 now just because the Colts are selling off a bunch of players. That's not the only reason, right? DeForest Buckner's not moving a line 2.5 points. They're just, Quentin Nelson's not moving a line 2.5 points. This is really, really, really respected money coming in heavy on this Jaguars team.
00:13:49
Speaker 2: So, I'll own it. Totally missed that one. I thought it'd be a Colts line. Now it's really a Colts line.
00:13:54
Speaker 3: You're getting plus 10 in a lot of shops on this Colts team. So, just interesting to hear so many pros coming in on this Jaguars team and them chasing the steam. Like they bet it at seven and a half, but at eight and a half, I know some groups even better than nine. So the pros do really love that Jaguar side. I just, I can't see what that many points in a divisional game. And yeah, the last one that really jumped out to me, a lot of conversations, just Denver over the chiefs, tons of pros on it.
00:14:18
Speaker 2: Public office is going to be all over the chiefs. And yeah, it's one we'll have to talk about. Cause I'm, I'm not.
00:14:23
Speaker 3: Seeing what the pros are seeing on this one with Denver. So I'm interested in your take on it, but yeah, a lot of pro money coming in on Denver in that game.
00:14:30
Speaker 1: Let's talk about Carolina for a second, because I was curious where we were going to go in sharp calls on this one, because it's fascinating to me that this looks like it's running to four. You look at the juice on this line across the board, and it's much more likely to go to four than it is to three. So I've been waiting to take a second bite at the apple on Carolina. because I'm hoping that it's going to get to four before the game, even though the fact that it getting to four before the game to me is much more of an indicator that professionals have been not as aggressive on Carolina as I would have liked them to be to feel better about Carolina at three and a half. I'm still on them. Like Bryce coming off a bad game as a dog on the road, against a defensive backfield that is susceptible to big plays, which we saw again and again and again against the Lions the week before. I like that spot. I like playing a dog that was just blown out seven and two this season, historically 57%. So I'm a little surprised it hasn't been for three, especially by the way, we know the Packers have some pretty considerable issues on the offensive line. And now Matthew Golden has popped up as questionable and a limited practice participant on Wednesday. So explain to me the Packers' love. What are we missing here? Is it anti-Carolina or is it pro-Green Bay?
00:16:14
Speaker 3: It could be a little anti-Carolina because, like you said, that was just such a bad loss. And now you're going from Bucky Irvin to a fresh Josh Jacobs, like you would think. This favorites the Packers' run game in many ways as well. But I'm like you. I don't get it.
00:16:31
Speaker 2: Three, I totally get the love for the Packers, right?
00:16:33
Speaker 3: The pros loving that number made total sense, but it's never going to get there.
00:16:38
Speaker 2: And that's why I don't get why they're just taking the three and a half. And they're not just taking it. They're betting it pretty heavily. So it's just a game where maybe we're missing something here. But I agree.
00:16:46
Speaker 3: To me, it feels like a no-brainer spot with Carolina. You're getting them at a plus number after an embarrassing loss on a short.
00:16:53
Speaker 2: Week with a talented team.
00:16:54
Speaker 3: Like they're not– Maybe they're not going to be, you know, like the Bears type, right?
00:16:59
Speaker 2: A team that you trust to go on a playoff run. But I think we all.
00:17:02
Speaker 3: Agree that Panthers being a team that could win their division or a possible seventh seed feels real. Like they feel like they have enough talent offensively and defensively. I know, you know, they've been up and down certain weeks, but overall, like that defensive unit's not as terrible as we thought they were going to be coming into the season. So when I look at this Carolina team, it really is a bet on what we've seen with Bryce Young, which is just, anytime he's what Chad said, he's like a dog in this position after a really bad loss, especially the last two years tends to bounce back. He doesn't consistently have bad games in a row. That's what you can, you can bash price on for all these different things, but being consistently good and not letting bad losses pile up. He hasn't really done that since he's taken over this job from Andy Dalton a few years ago. So yeah, looking at this number, Chad, I think that's, and I think it's because right now it's just the movement of it. If this was going down to three, We'd both feel way more confident about it. The fact that it is touching forward a lot of shops to show how much resistance there is and how much pro money is coming on the Packers. And I've talked about, I think the Packers are a really good team. Obviously going to be a desperate team to win here after a bad divisional loss, but still think they'll win this game.
00:18:08
Speaker 2: But it's like by more than a field goal. I don't know.
00:18:10
Speaker 3: Just feels like a lot of points where you're betting a lot on the Packers, a lot of Panthers team that we've seen. They've had two uncompetitive games. I still think those are two outliers. Those are really two outlier games to me. And we've seen this pattern with Bryce Young to bounce back after bad losses.
00:18:26
Speaker 1: Simon, I don't know about you. It's going to be another night past my bedtime, watching sports, sweating a game on TV. Arizona at Dallas. You had said on Sunday, and we said it again on Tuesday before, We like Arizona here. We just want to see it get to seven. Let's just be patient, get the number to seven. The number is finally at seven. Arizona's seven point underdog at the Dallas Cowboys. Look, lots of micro and macro trends here that we can address, but there's all of them say, take Arizona from a non-quarterback specific point of view, meaning Dak, has success in these situations, but historically teams in this spot, you want to be back in the underdog. This season, teams that are six plus point underdogs covering it in a store clip, a little bit of inflation because of last week's results, primarily with the Cowboys beating up on the Eagles. But you look at that game, the Cowboys were not exactly dominant. They needed until late in the third quarter to take the lead. The underlying numbers are relatively even. The Eagles just didn't have the talent to stick with the Cowboys late in the game. The Cards are clearly more talented than the Eagles right now. They have been competitive. I'm more and more comfortable backing the Cardinals, especially at seven.
00:20:14
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm trying to think it.
00:20:16
Speaker 3: It is tough to want to back the Cardinals in the sense that they are such a bad team, but we've talked about they're a.
00:20:23
Speaker 2: Bad team that has a good offense.
00:20:25
Speaker 3: And against the Cowboys, they just have not, to my opinion, earned a seven-point spread.
00:20:31
Speaker 2: That defense is so bad.
00:20:32
Speaker 3: And we could get burned here, but I've told people– Arizona has some weird history with Dallas. And I always look into this stuff. There's certain teams that just play well against other teams. And, you know, when they're out of division, it is weird. But I just wanted to go back and look. Because I'm like, am I just misremembering things? Because I'm telling the truth to you. It feels like every other year I've lost my survivor pools on Dallas at home against Arizona Cardinals.
00:20:56
Speaker 2: So last year, Arizona was a three-and-a-half point dog. They beat the Cowboys 27-17. Okay, 20-23. Okay.
00:21:04
Speaker 3: They were at 11, 11 and a half point dog, Arizona Cardinals. They beat the Cowboys 28 to 16. All right. 2022, they beat them 25 to 22 Arizona Cardinals 2020. They beat them 38 to 10 Cardinals. This is all during Dak's run. I know you could say, well, it's not this part of Kyler. Kyler didn't start some of those games. Like it's, it's crazy going through it that this Cardinals team for some reason, since 2020 has owned this Dallas team. And, You could say it's because they have such terrible defense. Well, nothing's changed here. I mean, they've always had a good offense in that stretch with Dak. Whatever it is, their defense no-shows in these type of games. I just look at this matchup with Brissette, and we've seen them this year come from behind in so many games. Like last week, if you wanted to beat Arizona, you really needed to kill them, right? They put up 30 Denver. Their defense didn't give up anything. I think they gave up 16 points to Arizona. That's what you need to do to beat Arizona. Dallas is not the same beast in any measurement. Dallas, Dak against bad teams. Yeah. Dak might get his, he might put up 35, no doubt about it. But the fact that now we all need to get to is 28. The fact that we can always have this option for this back door with this plus seven. Now it's, I honestly feel like it's a gift. So yeah, probably market. I'm hoping they move to the seven and a half, but I'll grab this seven. Now I still can at different shops and hope, hope, hope, hope, hope the public keeps coming in heavy on teasers and money line, but it's cause that's what it is right now. The Cowboys it's, if you look at different shops, it's like 90% of the bets and money is all on the Cowboys money line.
00:22:32
Speaker 2: You just know that's teasers, right? People are coming in heavy on.
00:22:34
Speaker 3: This Cowboys team that win this game after what Chad said, they're feeling good after them beating up on a bad Eagles team. And it's like, I don't know, on a short week, seven point favorite at home after feeling themselves, this is.
00:22:46
Speaker 2: The exact moment. There's a letdown spot here for the Cowboys.
00:22:48
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm really hoping to get seven and a half, but I've noticed you taking the seven, obviously.
00:22:53
Speaker 1: The, uh, I think what you're talking about with the Cowboys and the Cardinals, if I can put on my old head hat for a second, as someone whose mom grew up in St. Louis, Missouri, and I spent so much of my youth going to visit my grandparents in St. Louis. So I had this affinity or interest really in the St. Louis Cardinals. I think when you're talking about the Cowboys Cardinals, you're talking about the ghosts of the NFC East. You're talking about Dan Deardorff. You're talking about Larry Wilson. You're talking about Jim Hart and Neil Lomax. That's what you're talking about. It's those old rivalries, even though none of these guys were alive when it happened. It's the ghosts, man. They're bubbling up. It's the supernatural. That's what it is. That's why we're back in the years of the Cardinals and plus seven. We're doing it for Neil Lomax and Jim Hart. Simon. Minnesota at Detroit. Detroit is a three and a half point favorite in this game. This one was Simon Says. We're going to talk a little bit more about this later on. I bet it at three and a half. Minnesota. I'm not going to lie. I'm not as confident as I was. I keep telling myself we're just playing the number here. Even though there are a lot of stats to say don't take Minnesota in this spot. You mentioned Jared Goff. I got the same emails and notes from people that he's actually been incredible against the Blitz this year. To our credit, he has been mediocre in years past, especially has trouble when he has pushed off his spot with the Blitz coming from the middle, right? Can Minnesota do that? Will it matter because he's been so much more effective this year? Are we walking into it right now and just being stubborn because we're looking at this hook and saying that's what we're betting on regardless of any scheme on the field?
00:25:05
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:25:05
Speaker 3: And also, speaking of the past, I've seen some crazy stats I'm sure other people have where this Vikings team who's 6-0, they're like the first team since like 1932. to be six and oh with their low the the amount of touchdowns they've scored this season which is fewer than 10 whatever it is so um.
00:25:24
Speaker 2: I totally get that the general public's.
00:25:26
Speaker 3: Hesitation right it is really all about this offense in minnesota and i'm not trusting the quarterback and my whole view is is this not the perfect opportunity for kyler to finally put a complete game together he's playing against a defense that is um you know all their rankings right they're 28th on third down defense they're 32nd giving up passing yards they're uh 28th and giving up points this year Detroit they're 24th in turnovers like they're just a bad defense obviously and yeah their offense is top five in basically every category but everyone knows Minnesota equally is top one and two in every defensive category this year they've been absolutely dominant and I went through and I talked about where Jared Goff shockingly has done well against Flores defenses and even his career. I think he's seven to five against Minnesota's career. So he's not, you know, Flores doesn't have the same effect on him as he has on other quarterbacks, right?
00:26:22
Speaker 2: Goff, he's seen it all. And we've talked about it. We just did that.
00:26:26
Speaker 3: He's gotten much better than he was early in his career against the blitz this year. It went a whole different world, right? I didn't realize he was 75, 75% completion percentage against the blitz this year.
00:26:35
Speaker 2: That's insane.
00:26:36
Speaker 3: And when you go and break it down, It's not like it's, you know, people assuming it's these big plays, right? It's the quick read where he's either taking the three or he's getting a big play on St. Brown or wherever on these quick reads, which, you know, tons of respect to golf. That's a big thing you need to prove on because he was so bad with pressure up the middle. So, yeah, I totally get why people are betting this Lions team and why people aren't buying this Vikings team. But I still think this is the type of game where it's just an inflated lot like that. The Lions stole one last week. Minnesota on the flip side, they earned that win in every retrospect in the fact that they were trying– like Chad said, they were trying so many ways.
00:27:13
Speaker 2: To lose that game.
00:27:14
Speaker 3: They were so bad, so bad offensively. I just think here this is a get-right spot for this Minnesota offense.
00:27:22
Speaker 2: You don't think they're hearing all this noise.
00:27:24
Speaker 3: You don't think KOC is seeing all the stuff written about J.J. McCarthy and the fact they let him walk and they kept Kyler.
00:27:32
Speaker 2: It's all there.
00:27:33
Speaker 3: So I do think the pressure is heavily on this offense despite being 6-0. And, yeah, that's the only hesitation for me here is just Minnesota, their defense has been so good.
00:27:45
Speaker 2: Are they finally going to get burned here? Because, I mean, you go through it.
00:27:47
Speaker 3: They haven't really played, obviously, anything close to this Detroit offense where, you know, that Caleb game, you throw it out. It was in the rain. Tons of things went wrong. But if you go back and watch that first half, they did annoy the hell out of Caleb. They did annoy the hell out of that Bears offense.
00:28:02
Speaker 2: And it's like, that's what I'm making it where Flores, he could find what pisses you off, what annoys you and really attack it and exploit it.
00:28:08
Speaker 3: So we're getting plus three and a half. I just, that's the issue with me. I can't avoid it. And, you know, we've seen a couple of books hold at three. That's giving me even more confidence because right now it's all the money's pouring in on Detroit, especially at those shops holding at the minus three.
00:28:23
Speaker 2: So we'll see where this one goes.
00:28:24
Speaker 3: Obviously, if it goes up to plus four, like this Green Bay line, Not going to be a great feeling coming in Sunday if this is up to plus four. But the only reason I gave this out is because I just thought the pros would come in. This would be bet down to either plus three or plus two and a half.
00:28:37
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're just playing the number. We can go through the schematics all we want. And I think one thing we know, Brian Flores isn't going to change who he is, right? The team blitzing 85% of the time. They're not going to stop blitzing because Jared Goff is all of a sudden really good at throwing against the blitz.
00:29:02
Speaker 2: Or he will because he's that smart.
00:29:03
Speaker 3: Or he'll do something where he'll blitz 10% in this game.
00:29:06
Speaker 2: That's why I love the head games.
00:29:08
Speaker 1: I don't know that he will, though. It's what he does. And I'm a huge Brian Flores fan. I feel like what he has done with this defense, I just wonder, will he make the blitzes look different? Will he make them more exotic? Will he bring them from different places than what he's shown so far this year? That's going to be the key to this game. How can they get Jared Goff to be uncomfortable? Because he has been really good. And so that to me is why the hook is so interesting. because the books are, as you like to say, they're telling us something right now. The fact that it hasn't gone to three, they are telling us something. So either we think we're getting value or we are totally, totally suckers. And I guess we're going to find out. Atlanta, Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay, minus two and a half. So Baker's hand is injured, obviously. He only threw 11 times against the Panthers the week before, but didn't need to throw. The discrepancy on the money in this game is insane. 81% of the money is coming in on the Falcons. The number has not budged since last It's been Atlanta minus, it's been Tampa Bay minus two and a half. Every trend here says fade the bucks. So the money coming in on Atlanta is what's curious to me. I wouldn't have been surprised if it was tickets, if the public was backing Atlanta as a public dog, as a dog. But are we, if we back the bucks here, Are we missing something?
00:31:01
Speaker 3: Which is fair to ask. This game definitely has been more split than I thought it was going to be. I thought it was going to be another game where it's going to be all pros all over the Bucs and the general public all over Atlanta. Just because Atlanta, I was coming off that big win against 49ers, that's going to stick with people. That's going to stick with people way more than a Bucs win over Carolina, especially in a game where, like we said, Baker didn't do much. So we still have no idea what we're getting from Baker. That's the fear. And I know a lot of groups are betting into Atlanta. simply because they trust that offense and you could say that offense is more healthy right we don't know if mecca book's gonna play in this matchup like a mecca book uh they struggle with injuries this year and baker we just talked about like he came back early because he's not not worried about losing his job but it's just he's a high highly competitive guy these guys are all psychos and like he just he's watching his team win games without him he's just like i gotta get back out there i don't care if it's my throwing hand i need to wear a glove i'm making it work so I totally get the hesitation from the general public. You talk all the time about situation spots. This feels like a Bucs spot. This is a good matchup for the Bucs team as well. I can't say enough about this Bucs defense, how they've turned it around. They just have looked so much better here. That was a great test last week. Carolina was a really good offense coming into that game. They totally neutralized them, shut them down. I don't think they'll do the same, obviously, against this Atlanta team where they have the B. John Robinson piece where You know, you can stop him in the run game. He'll burn you in the pass game. He's just, you know, one of the best running backs in all of football. We know that deal where I look at this matchup, though, for Tampa, and it just feels like as long as it's under three, it's a good number in this divisional game. Like, you're getting the Bucs under three at home, and, you know, we've seen this kind of work out where they were, what was it, 0-11 against the spread shot or 0-12? Now they've been covering. It's come back around. That Pittsburgh game, I know we were on the other side and they dropped it. That game had to go overtime just so they wouldn't cover it. They had a 10-point lead in that fourth quarter. This is a team where I feel like the Bucs had over-adjusted and now they've over-adjusted too much the other way. We're getting good lines every week here on this Bucs team. I think it's still a good line. This probably should be closer to 3-3.5, honestly. People are so high in Atlanta right now and Still think they have a lot of questions about Baker and this Bucs team that you're going to get in line here.
00:33:22
Speaker 2: So, unfortunately, it's not. If this was all.
00:33:24
Speaker 3: Pros lined up on the Bucs side, I would have been way more confident, way higher in this game. But it's just a little lukewarm, both sides being played right now. So, it's going to be a debate for sure Sunday morning if we're going to get this one in because it's one of.
00:33:35
Speaker 2: My bigger bets.
00:33:36
Speaker 3: But I don't know if it'll end up being two and a half come contest Sunday morning.
00:33:42
Speaker 1: All right, Simon. It is time for our Brass Balls Trade of the Week. Presented by Polymarket, it is going to be the New York Jets minus one and a half trading at 50% on Polymarket.
00:34:03
Speaker 2: You know what it takes? It takes brass balls.
00:34:09
Speaker 1: They are hosting the Las Vegas Raiders. Look, very interesting move. When we discussed this on Tuesday, the line had actually flipped. It was Raiders minus a half. So much public love for the Raiders. We were trying to be patient. We were hoping that it actually might move a little bit higher and we could get the Jets at a plus number. Wise guys came in and changed that completely. Books have not moved off of the Jets minus one and a half. Still loads of tickets coming in on Vegas. We're both aligned on this. My only fear is the line flip. It's not a true line flip to me, but it still is a line flip, meaning it wasn't Raiders minus one, one and a half for extended days.
00:35:09
Speaker 2: It was a.
00:35:11
Speaker 1: Minute and then it went right back. New York football jets. That's going to be our brass balls for the week. What do you think?
00:35:24
Speaker 3: It sounds very excited, but yeah, it's a, this one definitely takes some brass balls. I'm already cracking myself thinking about like, I got these local guys where I go for a pizza, a pizza shop.
00:35:34
Speaker 2: I go to, and they're obviously big fans of the show.
00:35:38
Speaker 3: And I got them to the show that started this year, like talking to a guy and it's like, Hey man, if you like football, check out our show, blah.
00:35:43
Speaker 2: Blah, blah.
00:35:44
Speaker 3: And where I went in there on Monday, my God, you thought I was the King of this place because Miami dolphins last week.
00:35:53
Speaker 2: And I said they were going to win outright.
00:35:56
Speaker 3: And this guy said they were making fun of me, shitting on me for about three days.
00:35:59
Speaker 1: Free pizza for Simon.
00:36:02
Speaker 2: Exactly though. They were just like, how do you do it? It's like, there's no secret here. I wish there was some secret sauce, but there really isn't. I can already feel that.
00:36:09
Speaker 3: I'm going to walk in tomorrow and they're going to be all over me about this Jets pick.
00:36:13
Speaker 2: And, um, Because it is true, though. It's back-to-back weeks. These take some cojones.
00:36:19
Speaker 3: That's what I'm trying to beat into the general public here, the listeners of this show, where it's like, these are winners. These are long-term winners. Can we get burnt here and the Raiders blow out the Jets?
00:36:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's the Jets. It's Aaron Glenn and the Jets.
00:36:31
Speaker 3: This is a man that's laughing, having the time of his life at halftime while he's losing by double digits to Miami at home. I know what we're walking into here, but me and Chad talk. I love the matchups here. Not just the run game for this Jets team, but think it's a nice bounce back spot for them defensively that was how do you not get embarrassed and humbled when you when you get dominated especially on the ground against miami the previous yeah i think they're going to bounce back a major way where the raiders really haven't had a run game this year like genti has not been i mean that's a whole another story we can go down but genti jeremiah love like these these running backs they take in these top 10 picks me and chad talking about it it's a dumb pick these are dumb organizations and This Raiders team, it's all on Kirk right now. And this is another matchup that's not going to be that great, in my opinion, for Kirk. So, yeah, I'm not shocked to see the general public on the Raiders, but I am shocked to see that the pros showed their hands so early and hammered this Jets line and flipped it back because I was like, I was so happy to see it move. I was like, oh, my God, I might be able to get a plus two on this Jets team. So minus one and a half. In my mind, anything below.
00:37:38
Speaker 2: Two is a really, really good number on this Jets team. Like I have this. Two and a half, closer to three.
00:37:43
Speaker 3: So the fact that we're getting a good number here is a big deal, and we just love the matchup. So, yeah, I was thinking, what's the brassiest ball? This one jumped right off the page. It's like I'm really bad at having to, and it's one of these I can feel it in the pit of my stomach where it's like, my God, this is going to be a tough one to watch come Sunday.
00:38:02
Speaker 2: But I really think we're getting a good number here on this Jets side.
00:38:05
Speaker 1: Well, we considered the Cardinals. We considered one other team. We landed on the Jets. This has to be a free pizza pick for Simon. Let's just get Simon some free pizza.
00:38:15
Speaker 2: Never, never.
00:38:16
Speaker 3: And I always leave a big tip, people. Don't you worry. Simon takes good care of these guys.
00:38:20
Speaker 1: Simon's a class act. Everyone knows that. Simon's a generous, classy guy. I need to tell you about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the best new way to trade in sports in the past. If you wanted action on the game, you'd put some money in. And if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out, they'd lock the trade or take a huge fee. But Polymarket is a prediction market, a stock exchange for sports where you can buy and sell on your teams. I've tried them all. And Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident. You'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And now they've launched a new feature, squads. a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. Check the link in the description to join my squad today. Sweat picks together every Sunday in the Polymarket app. Download the Polymarket app today. Use SHARP when you sign up. That's SHARP to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. Another game, I was a little bit bummed to see the line hasn't been moving in our favor, the Cleveland Browns. plus three and a half at the Pittsburgh Steelers. It was four on Sunday when we first talked about it. It's moved to three and a half. My concern here is that it feels very, very, very public. And it worries me that the line has not moved. Are we a little bit too big for our britches with the Cleveland Browns right now? I'm totally impressed with both teams. I'm totally impressed with the coaching on both teams. Totally impressed with the defenses on both teams. I mean, they're both playing like competent professional football teams.
00:40:15
Speaker 3: Yeah, my biggest pushbacks against these pro groups were you guys are the same guys are telling me I had to bet Tennessee last week. I had to fade this Browns team. It's no, it's honestly no different. They're just, they're waiting for the other shooter drop on this Browns team. Honestly, they're like, their, their view is Watson cannot keep, cannot keep up these fourth quarter comebacks. And I mean, we've seen him consistently do it now. Like this isn't just, you can't say it's a fluke. It's happened multiple games. It was a four, four games to be exact where he's had these fourth quarter comebacks. So, um, Yeah, I get what they're trying to do, but me and Chad always talk about you can't time the market. It's just like trading stocks. You cannot time the market. It feels like they're trying to time the market here. They're trying to do it on a Steelers team that, I mean, you can't say this is a good spot. They're coming back from Paris. If anything, this is the worst spot it could possibly be for an old team that Pittsburgh is. They're an old team coming off a ton of travel now, coming home against a Browns team that is young. It's why we love this Browns team, man. They've hit these drafts the last two, three years. All the talent is working out. I mean, that game, their number one tight end who they drafted two years ago showed up. Concepcion showed up in that game. It's just these offensive pieces they've drafted have shown up. We know their defense, obviously, across the board, all these defensive guys they've drafted have shown up. So, yeah, it's something I'm clearly missing. I told you. A bunch of pros I talked to, like the Steelers, like Chad said, they're holding the number up. the public and pros aligned on this Browns team because it's the easy route right now this year we've seen of just fading these teams that travel internationally. And it's just they drag in the second half. And you can say, well, you know, this is the time to try to go against that pattern. But we're talking about a Browns team that's better in the second half going against a team we expect to drag and slow down in the second half. And, you know, as much as I want to say Aaron Rodgers has been playing incredible out of his mind, you saw the first time these two teams played, I think it was a Thursday night game.
00:42:17
Speaker 2: Rogers absolutely lit up this defense. He was incredible. But then when they needed him to have a drive, he couldn't put it together.
00:42:24
Speaker 3: They did finally get some stops and it's like, okay, at least there's some stuff to take away on tape. The Browns are going to look at it and be like, okay, these are the adjustments we made the first time we played.
00:42:33
Speaker 2: Can we counteract Aaron Rogers.
00:42:35
Speaker 3: Doing offensively, which is these quick five, six minute, you know, these quick throws, these two, three step drops and the quick throws and, I look at this matchup, and I'm like you, where it's just my own hesitation. It's just like the Minnesota one. I don't get the hook, and it feels too easy, and that's my hesitation. I mean, you've seen the board crystal clear. It's like Chad Wright. Are we walking right into it right now? It's another really tough.
00:43:01
Speaker 2: Debated game where I would– if.
00:43:06
Speaker 3: This wasn't the Steelers coming back from Paris, I'd be all over the Steelers, but because it is, that's my– That's my biggest push against the Steelers pick.
00:43:15
Speaker 1: This one's for Luke. He wants me to say it's Chad and I, and now Luke owes me 10 books, number one. Number two, when I looked at my lineup this week, now Simon is trolling me by flashing Peter King's book, The Game, which is brilliant and everyone should buy it. No bigger fan. Listen, we're a literary podcast. I want everyone to buy a lot of books, all the books. I don't want anyone to not have books on their bookshelves. I'm a huge fan of reading. I love the reading. Riff, reading is fundamental. When I look at my lineup of bets this week, I looked at Cleveland plus three and a half, Minnesota plus three and a half. This next game that we're going to talk about, the Baltimore Ravens at the Buffalo Bills, that one, was at three and a half. That one finally moved to three. I think it's because Lamar was a full participant in practice. That's what the number was waiting on. This is 100%, Simon, a pros-Joes game. The wise guys have been taking the three and a half. It's not because the wise guys are taking the number at three. It's because the number was at three and a half and professional bettors have been buying that up with the expectation Lamar Jackson was going to practice.
00:44:44
Speaker 3: I'm trying to be stubborn because I was lying to myself saying, well, once it gets to three, maybe I'll buy in on this Bill's side.
00:44:50
Speaker 2: But I haven't done it.
00:44:52
Speaker 3: I've only bet the Ravens three and a half. And if you shop around, there's still three and a halves out there. Not that these books hate Lamar.
00:45:00
Speaker 2: They're mad at him, but they are. They're mad at this guy because, like, he burned him so bad last week. He was practicing all week.
00:45:07
Speaker 3: Like I said, he practiced on Friday last week and then didn't play. So I hate it where I want to– I wanted to, you know, put the house on the plus three and a half on this Ravens team because they're just going to be so desperate. And they're facing a Bills team that, yeah, Josh Allen's desperate and he wants to win every game. But they're 5-1 coming off a bye week facing a team that, what, they dropped two straight, this Ravens team?
00:45:30
Speaker 2: And if they drop this game, guess what? They have a short week and they're playing the Jaguars.
00:45:34
Speaker 3: Like, it's just, it's all stacking up against this Ravens team.
00:45:39
Speaker 1: And they're blowing double-digit leads.
00:45:42
Speaker 2: Every game. Every game in the world.
00:45:44
Speaker 3: So, yeah, it is really tough where it's just I wanted I want to be on the Ravens. If this, you know, if Lamar news breaks and everyone's all in on and does eventually finally go to two and a half, that's what I'll take my position on the bills. But if you're looking for right now, the best bet, how do you not take a three and a half? You have to bet the Ravens at three and a half. That's what the pros are doing, just because it's just you get Lamar back at that plus number against this defense in the bills, which.
00:46:12
Speaker 2: They're historically bad right now, right?
00:46:14
Speaker 3: They're just, you look at all the underlying numbers, they're not getting the turnovers like the bears or these other teams that have bad defenses that you can desperately need. They're being ran through and they're horrible.
00:46:23
Speaker 2: In the fourth quarter. Defensively, this pills team, like they get worse as the game goes along.
00:46:28
Speaker 3: So you're, you're telling me to fade the MVP, the best athlete potentially ever play this game against a really bad defense.
00:46:35
Speaker 2: I can't do it until I get a really good number. And to me, that's two and a half or below. So, Three, three and a half, whatever you can get. If you want to take the Ravens with me, that to me is where I want to be for right now. But yeah, Sunday morning, if me and Chad have a choice of the contest at two and a half, maybe Chad could talk me into it. But if it's three and a half, that's a no brainer slam on the Ravens.
00:46:54
Speaker 1: Right now, Ravens are trading at three and a half at the prediction market. This is where it's always interesting because, and I hope people do this, like you can use the prediction markets and the traditional online sports books to get a sense, A, to find better numbers because the prediction markets have to be in half-point increments, number one. Number two, you can use it as a tool to figure out where is money going, where might the line on a traditional sportsbook go if you're not comfortable betting on prediction markets, like if you're not able to bet on prediction markets. You can use these things as tools to understand how markets are moving. Right now, the Ravens are at 3.5%. on prediction markets, but at three on the online sports books. Los Angeles Chargers at the Los Angeles Rams. You mentioned it in sharp calls. It's gone down from seven and a half to six and a half. The Rams are getting the tickets. So we know that this move because professional bettors, at least initially, came in on the Chargers at six and a half, maybe at seven and a half. Maybe at six and a half, they're going on the Rams. Joe Alt, should be back for the Chargers. Lad McConkie should be back for the Chargers. Derwin James, I'm pretty sure is not going to play. Latest reports are that he had a setback with his hamstring injury. I think the Chargers are one of those teams that are in our head. Like we should be playing them here, at least at seven and a half, we should have. It should have been a blind bet. Don't look at the logos. We're not pulling the trigger. Do we just Is it because we believe our eyes? Because we have been off this team since before the season began. We are not praying at the altar of Mike McDaniel and his cool glasses and ankle pants. Like, what has kept us from pulling the trigger here?
00:48:51
Speaker 3: I mean, me personally, I'll never, ever, ever get over that Bills-Chargers game. Like I talk about, it's historical. They had five turnovers. They're a plus three in the turnover margin. They didn't cover a plus eight and a half, which was the first time since they've been tracking betting numbers ever. A dog over seven points or more at plus three turnovers didn't cover a number. And you've seen it this year with this Chargers team, the non-covers they've had, it's things you've never seen from that denver game we covered on horrible going for it on his own 20 he did uh the genius campbell move and went for his own 20 didn't get it they kick a field goal now you're not covering which they cover the entire game like it's just they've had the most insane non-covers ever this chargers team and To me, the books will give you a good number then because the markets sell against them, right? They're 0-5-1 or 0-6-1, whatever it is, against the spread. Well, that 7.5 made sense, but 6.5, I totally get why pros are betting this Rams side and why they're throwing them in tees or stuff like that. My fear and my reason I would stay away is because, like I've talked about, the Chargers, they're going to win a game somewhere. And this Rams team, As much as I want to get them, they've been super up and down this year. And they've played to the level of their competition in a lot of their games this season. Like, they're just, you know, that Raiders game, or I guess you could say the Giants game, those two complete games they played, yeah, obviously great games, great wins.
00:50:19
Speaker 2: Stafford had to play out of his mind in those games.
00:50:22
Speaker 3: And, yeah, you could do it again against another, like Chad said, Derwin James is out of this game. I think Khalil Mack, unless he gets traded, you know, that's another guy that they're going to definitely need in this matchup for this Chargers team.
00:50:33
Speaker 1: I'm not sure he's playing. He had a rest day. So he will be playing, but he had a rest day of practices. A veteran rest day.
00:50:39
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just saw that he missed and I was just like, oh my God, they can't have him out too. So I just look at this matchup and I totally get why the pros have now flipped, right? The seven and a half was the pro number on the Chargers. Now pros are taking a taste on this Rams team of minus six and a half.
00:50:53
Speaker 2: I totally get.
00:50:53
Speaker 3: So it's a game where, you know, there's a lot of options on the board this week if I can stay away from it. Great, but I really wanted to be on the Chargers. I just don't think I'm ever going to get there on this number.
00:51:02
Speaker 1: I'm glad we're in agreement because I feel like I need some discipline here and I cannot fire away on a Chargers team that has looked the way it has getting less than the best of the number. Maybe if the public comes in on the Rams, if the wise guys continue to come in, the game gets back to seven, if by a miracle it's at seven and a half, but I don't think it's responsible to play the Chargers at anything less than seven. So I'm glad we are aligned. Are we aligned on Kansas City at Denver? Denver's a one and a half point underdog. The Broncos are very clearly the sharp side here. You said it on sharp calls, all the indicators, money, tickets, everything is pointing the direction that the Broncos are the sharp side. Are we comfortable, given our love of Patrick Mahomes, despite what I wrote in The Athletic this week, where out of 101 quarterbacks since 2018, Patrick Mahomes is ranked 101st when he is a favorite getting the majority of the tickets in terms of against the spread and ROI. If you had bet $ 100 on every game in which Patrick Mahomes was the favorite getting the majority of tickets, meaning more than 51% over the past nine seasons, you would be down $ 1, 300. That's what we're betting into if we decide to bet on Patrick Mahomes in this spot.
00:52:52
Speaker 2: Yeah, Pat's a great quarterback, though. He doesn't cover, but he always wins. That's kind of what that stat shows me.
00:52:57
Speaker 1: And that's what this number is saying. Essentially, this number is saying there's only one way we don't cover, right?
00:53:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, a little bit. And I've had people ask about this one. It's another game where, like, if you're scared about Mahomes, you got the teaser option, people.
00:53:11
Speaker 3: That's another great number. Take it up.
00:53:14
Speaker 2: Seven and a half. It's a great number. No worries.
00:53:18
Speaker 3: If you want to, I mean, you got tons of other options out there, right? Commanders, you want to fade the Eagles. You can get them now down to a pick or, you know, go crazy. You can take the Ravens up to nine and a half for Lamar, you know, do a bunch of crazy stuff for these teasers this week, take the Rams down to a pickle. But I, I look at that stat. I just always think it's what we talked about in the homes, right? He came out his first year, went to AFC championship game, won an MVP that, it was all from running from the general public, right? They're always me back in my homes. Cause he's that good. And we've always talked about this with the market. We've always kind of faded my home, especially when he's greater than a three and a half point favorite. It's been like, Chad just said, very profitable betting. This is, this is kind of that, but not really. Cause like Chad said, this is such a short number. The odds of this landing on one. So marginal, like my home is not winning this game by one.
00:54:09
Speaker 2: Right. But I think we both look at this as, We've.
00:54:14
Speaker 3: Seen the weaknesses in the Chiefs, and Denver does have the type of team that can exploit that type of stuff.
00:54:21
Speaker 2: They have a wide receiving group. They've got a tax need. We saw this Chiefs team, as much as they took.
00:54:30
Speaker 3: Away the run against the Seattle Seahawks, they don't have a backfield anywhere close to as good as a backfield as this Broncos team. The backfield is really talented. You could take Dobbins, Harvey. There's a bunch of really talented guys here. in the Broncos universe. And I was happy to see the pros were on Denver. Cause it was another time where I was like, Oh my God, my guy have to back this chiefs again, this team again, where now I have so many questions about this chiefs team and all it really is about my homes. And that's, I know guys who are taking the chief spot. It's like, well, you expect my homes to bounce back. I thought that was such a great spot for him against Seattle where he has not played.
00:55:05
Speaker 2: Well this year.
00:55:06
Speaker 3: And you know, we can, we can blame his weapons. What I do think is fair, like worthy, He's not lived up to being their number one. And with Rice out there, he has to be their number one. And Kelsey, he's 35, 36 years old now. Like, you've seen that loss. Whatever that is, the loss of a step, there is a loss there. He's just not obviously what Kelsey used to be. And even on third downs, where he used to be a guaranteed he'd be looking for Kelsey, a lot of times he's not. Like, he's using Kelsey as a decoy because these teams are still dubbing him because they're happy to have Worthy be the guy to let them beat them.
00:55:39
Speaker 1: So.
00:55:40
Speaker 3: That's some stuff you have to really dive into and take away from that. This Chiefs team, everyone I talk to, they're in the market for wide receiver. They're trying desperately to get a wide receiver at cost, right? And that kind of tells the story of this team, even themselves and other Chiefs, that they don't have the guys on the outside right now. And you're going to need those guys against this Denver team. They're going to totally try to make them one-dimensional and take away Kenneth Walker, which sounds crazy, trying to make Mahomes beat you, but You've seen it. If you let Walker go for 100, you're not beating the Chiefs. They can ball control the clock, especially with the spags in that defense. That's how they're going to beat you. There's a lot of games I like this week, so it's not one of my bigger bets, but I'd definitely take a position on the Denver Broncos. If this wanted to be one of our five, this would definitely have to be you pushing it in. I'm not super heavy betting into this Broncos team because I still don't know how much I trust Sean Payton and Bo Nix. It's just Last week was a great spot for them.
00:56:34
Speaker 2: Yeah. The Cardinals' defense, obviously, is night and day compared to Spag's defense.
00:56:41
Speaker 1: I mean, look, it's a heart versus head game, right? My head is saying, pull the trigger, take the Broncos. What happened last week for the Chiefs doesn't impact this week. You're getting the price. I don't know that it'll be one of our five. I think there are... Actually... it's going to be tight. We'll have to see what the numbers are offered in the, in the contest. It can be really interesting. I might take a stand on this one. We'll see. Monday night football, the Chicago bears are now three point underdogs visiting the Seattle Seahawks. It's come down to tick half a point was Chicago minus three plus three and a half Jeffrey Simmons. I don't know what kind of impact he can have in the game on Monday night. I, I, I kind of don't want to bet this one. I just want to enjoy it. I don't need to have money on this one because like, I think the Seahawks just could end up getting better and better. I think these could be two teams that meet each other in the NFC title game. Uh, and it, I think it's just perfectly priced. Like I'm not finding an edge one way or the other.
00:57:52
Speaker 3: Yeah. And I was surprised that like some books you were still able to get three and a half on the bears, which I was really shocked about.
00:57:59
Speaker 2: Um, Just like, you know, they're still popping up. I'm looking right now. There's still three and a halfs out there on the Bears. So, I am surprised by that with the books.
00:58:07
Speaker 3: Like, they're really digging in here on the Seattle team. And obviously, it paid out for them last week, right? It all broke right. But we talked about that game. Sam Darnold was insane on third downs. Like, just absolutely insane. Now, obviously, Bears defense is bad. And he should be able to do the same against them. But we've seen his career. He's never been consistent, Sam Darnold. The most consistent run he ever had in his career was that Super Bowl run, and they basically hit him. He had that one game against the Rams. All the other games, they really didn't ask him to do much. They really wanted to rely on that defense in the run game. Can you beat the Bears here with the same exact mentality?
00:58:43
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:58:44
Speaker 3: That's basically the only way to really beat the Bears this year is running the ball, great defense, obviously, and keeping the ball out of Caleb's hands. Never let Caleb get into that rhythm where we've seen Caleb Once you let him get a rhythm, he'll rattle off 21 straight points off you. And then you've seen if you could take him out of that rhythm, it kind of will do nothing for a quarter or two. Like that's kind of been the the mo for caleb and this ben johnson offense where if you can just get him out of rhythm keep him off the field he has a tough time getting back into that rhythm as the game goes along so um another game where i might be a sucker here like i just how do you not take a plus three and a half on this bears team they're just so good so well coached as as much respect we're giving to this Seahawks team and their defense, and especially it being a primetime game at home, and they've just obviously played better at home in these primetime games. But it's a lot of points to cover here for an offense that, to me, I still don't know if I trust their identity.
00:59:38
Speaker 2: I know it's all JSN right.
00:59:39
Speaker 3: Now, but that only could take you so far. Like, you're going to have to have other guys step up, and we've just not seen that from Seattle right now. So, yeah, another game I'm happy to avoid if we can, Chad, because I just– I wanted to be on Seattle, but the line is making me take the Bears.
00:59:52
Speaker 2: I really don't want to be taking the Bears here. Yeah.
00:59:54
Speaker 1: If it's three and a half, by the way, I'm with you. I'm just looking at, I was looking at the three and to me, it's like, all right, that's what it's supposed to be. There's no, there's no inherent edge for me there. Simon, it is time to reveal the Discord grouper of the week. I think you're going to like it.
01:00:15
Speaker 2: Buy my book. Buy my book.
01:00:18
Speaker 1: Buy my book. You know, Peter King is not the only author around here. You can join the Discord. Pre-order the number at readthenumber.com. You'll get the invite helping us raise money for St. Jude's. You know what's wild, Simon? This is proof that the Internet is connected to everything and that somebody is tracking us somewhere. I've never given money to St. Jude's. I've really only talked about it on this show. I am getting mayo from St. Jude's and I've never gotten it before. Isn't that crazy?
01:00:57
Speaker 2: A little bit, but like you said, we know our phones listen to us.
01:01:02
Speaker 1: I know.
01:01:03
Speaker 3: It's just a buzzword. So you must have said the buzzwords. I'm not going to say their name because now I'm going to be getting these texts, but that's what you did. You said their name and now they're sending these emails.
01:01:12
Speaker 2: Somehow that's legal. I can't believe it's illegal, but it is.
01:01:15
Speaker 1: They're listening. Listen, the Grouper lost on the Grouper. The Discord lost the Grouper last week. We had the Chiefs and the Vikings in a teaser. This week, the winner, Simon, you're going to love it. Minnesota plus three and a half. The group had lots of options, including a very gross Raiders-Jets first half under from my guy at PMARC86. It got one vote. from PMARC86. But it was the Minnesota Vikings plus three and a half. Is there a grouper? I'll report the results. As usual, I got injury update news from the Discord faster than any of the internet doctors on X. So join us. Go to readthenumber.com. Pre-order the book. Get the invite. Simon, what should our... And also, Buy the Game by Peter King. What should our Moneyline underdog round robin for week eight.
01:02:19
Speaker 1: I'm going to make a bold choice here. Arizona Cardinals.
01:02:22
Speaker 2: Arizona's plus 260. I love that. Yep.
01:02:25
Speaker 3: I think we got to ride with our guys. If we're going to, we're going to keep believing them. Cleveland Browns.
01:02:30
Speaker 2: Yep. Plus 160.
01:02:32
Speaker 3: I want to take a little piece of that. Third option here is tough. We can go Ravens plus 142. Like that hinges on Lamar, obviously.
01:02:41
Speaker 2: Or we can just go the coward route and take Denver at a pick.
01:02:46
Speaker 1: Let's do them both.
01:02:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, or I'll just say we're in Minnesota.
01:02:51
Speaker 1: I feel like we have so much invested in Minnesota at this point that it's probably going to blow up in our face. For Moneyline, underdog, round robin, let's go Cardinals, Cleveland, Baltimore, and Denver. For favorites, let's do Jets.
01:03:11
Speaker 2: Yeah. Bucs. Bucs.
01:03:14
Speaker 1: Rams.
01:03:17
Speaker 2: Rams.
01:03:19
Speaker 3: And I know we didn't talk much about it. I still am on Miami. I still love Miami. You could do New England. I'd give out that stat 15-0.
01:03:25
Speaker 2: Yeah.
01:03:25
Speaker 3: Is Drake May, if you want to stay away from that. Jayden Daniels hasn't won a game in whatever it was.
01:03:31
Speaker 2: Chad, since last October.
01:03:33
Speaker 1: Yeah. It's been more than a year.
01:03:35
Speaker 2: Yeah.
01:03:35
Speaker 3: If you can't beat this backup Eagles team with all these injuries– Who can you beat? That also jumps out. But I'd rather put in your Drake, man, than I would Jay Daniels, honestly.
01:03:45
Speaker 2: All right.
01:03:46
Speaker 1: Biggest bets. Biggest bets. Pull up those pants and be a man.
01:03:52
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say this week is very tame compared to last week. Last week, I was betting numbers all week. This week, I've been trying to get numbers a full to me and the numbers I won. It's not really broken that way. So I would say like Minnesota plus three and a half. Yeah, that's one of my bigger bets right now. Will it be scum Sunday? Might not, depending on how the market goes on certain other on other games like Jets at plus one and a half. Also, one of my bigger bets still betting it at minus one and a half. It was just simply betting the number. But yeah, like if this short in the week, Carolina, obviously one of my bigger bets, just because obviously the game's tonight. So I've taken a position on that. But yeah, like my biggest bets on numbers that don't exist anymore is that Miami plus seven and a half, which was a great number. If it's still plus seven come Sunday, it might end up being one of my bigger bets. But that's just unfortunate it's moved off the plus seven and a half.
01:04:46
Speaker 1: Sharp versus square. We are rocking and rolling in sharp versus square. I'm six and one on the year. You're five and two on the year. So if anyone's tailing anything, it should probably be that. I guess I'll go first this week.
01:05:03
Speaker 2: Okay.
01:05:05
Speaker 1: So let's see. Chad's choice was, I already forgot. Oh, it was the Carolina Panthers plus three and a half. I'll go with Baltimore.
01:05:15
Speaker 2: I'll go.
01:05:15
Speaker 1: If you're saying, is there a three and a half available? Yes, there are on prediction markets. I'd like Baltimore plus three and a half. That's my choice.
01:05:23
Speaker 2: There you go. And I always try to give out a favorite in this because people say I only give out dogs. Um, Can't do the Jets because we already did that breast balls. I'll do.
01:05:39
Speaker 2: Oh, God. I'll do it. Give me Baker and the Bucks.
01:05:44
Speaker 1: Jesus.
01:05:45
Speaker 2: Yeah.
01:05:46
Speaker 1: That is disgusting. That... Dude. It almost feels like you're just falling on your sword for making a mistake.
01:05:56
Speaker 2: I don't see any other favorites I love, really.
01:05:57
Speaker 1: Rich Hand was injured.
01:05:59
Speaker 2: Yeah.
01:05:59
Speaker 1: I don't even know what to do about Survivor. Like... Last week, we told people to take Minnesota, but you and I are both so far gone from Survivors. The Survivor pool I was in only has three people left. If they want to, they can split a massive pool right now.
01:06:16
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a pretty easy week if you want to play. There's nothing safe, obviously, but you could do Jacksonville. They're a 10-point favorite at home. You could do Cincinnati. I'd play Tennessee without just Jeffrey Simmons.
01:06:29
Speaker 2: Or you're.
01:06:32
Speaker 3: Someone that's Got multiple entries left and you want to play a high risk commanders.
01:06:36
Speaker 2: When else are you going to play the commanders? So, you know, you got some good options. It's a last week was a tough week. Truly this week feels a little easier. So yeah, good luck. Anyone survivor pools.
01:06:48
Speaker 1: All right. That's our show. We're going to be back on a Sunday morning. We'll, we'll figure out our final picks for week eight and our official pick them contest. Sign up, sharpersquare.thevolume.com to join for free. Well, it's getting kind of late. This has been Sharper Square, sponsored by Polymarket, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video, subscribe to the channel, download some Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until Sunday, 11 a.m. Eastern Live. Love you. How are you going to celebrate besides right now?
01:07:34
Speaker 2: Well, I'm probably, is this live? Is this going to be live? I'm probably going to get a little drunk. And I'm going to do it with my boys. And then we're going to bring the party back to Milwaukee.
01:07:45
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah.
01:07:47
Speaker 2: And they're probably going to do some damage as well.