NFL WEEK 8 Betting Preview: Panthers-Packers, Ravens-Bills and more

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Polymarket. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined, as always, by my BFF, my co-host, my companion, my compadre, professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon Hunter.
00:00:29
Speaker 2: Chad, how we doing?
00:00:31
Speaker 1: My brother. We are off a second straight four-in-one week in the contest. Great week for the show. Sometimes you got to celebrate these things. We hit on brass balls. We hit on Chad's choice. We hit on Simon Says. We hit on both our sharp versus square picks. All of our favorites in the money line, round robin cashed. I think three of our underdog money line, Ron Robin, picks cash. We did lose our bet on Sunday night to the Kansas City Chiefs, on the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. We were warned. We could not resist. It was ugly. It killed our Discord grouper of the week. You can join the Discord. Help us make money. Better choices for our weekly bet. Go to readthenumber.com. Join the Discord. But Simon, after week seven, because everyone at this point has now dropped their worst week, we have 17 total wins so far. That puts us in 123rd place out of 6,000 people in the Sharper Square contest. So there is one person... Yeji619, who's in first place with 22 wins. And then Jimmy Scars is right behind Yeji with 21 wins. A rally. A rally for the good guys.
00:02:06
Speaker 2: Let's keep it going, buddy.
00:02:10
Speaker 1: This is our Tuesday NFL Week 8 show. You're going to hear Chad's choice. You're going to hear Simon Says. We're going to review the entire slate for our free $ 25, 000 NFL Pick'em Contest show. Don't forget, you can get the shows at Sharper Square on YouTube. Go to subscribe and like this video while you were at it. You can follow us on Insta, TikTok, X. Subscribe to Sharper Square on Apple Pods or Spotify. Thursday night, football, Lambeau Field, 8.15 p.m. Eastern, Amazon Prime, Carolina Panthers, plus three and a half, the Green Bay Packers. Simon, we know the drill on this one. This is going to be a very rare... Chad's choice on Thursday night football. I wanted to avoid it. There's a bunch of games that we're going to go through today that I was zeroing in on for Chad's choice. I just couldn't avoid the Panthers. We talked about it on Sunday night. Bryce coming off a bad game is now a dog on the road against a defensive backfield. that is susceptible to explosive plays. People will say this Panthers' defense can't defend against the run, and Josh Jacobs, now healthy and back, will dominate, or now off the exemplars and back, will dominate. But the Packers' O-line is truly in shambles. Dogs off a blowout, 57%, against the spread since 2003. 7-2 this season. I got to do it. Panthers, Chad's choice.
00:03:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, don't hate it. We talked earlier on Sunday night that this was an easy bet to make, right? It was just simply playing the spot of a buy low in Carolina, and these are two teams that are pretty evenly matched, I think, by most people, especially model-wise, where, yes, Green Bay is the better team, deserve to be favored at home, especially on a short week, but three and a half points on a short week for this Green Bay team that, like you said, they're I would say they're well coached, but they're just undisciplined. They have so many bad penalties. And maybe NFL talks to their refs before this game because that– I mean, that Green Bay-Detroit game was by far the worst ref game of the week last week.
00:04:35
Speaker 1: Terrible.
00:04:36
Speaker 2: You know, a lot of people talked about it, and it kind of goes away because the coaches really can't talk about it, especially LaFleur. He knows– I think it's a 250K fine now. Like, I think it was Vrabel that got fined that last week, and he couldn't talk about the refs again. Same goes for LaFleur here. And looking at this matchup, I think Chad's right saying that the secondary can be attacked, obviously, of this Green Bay team. I know they have great safeties, but it's not like they're cornerbacks or anything close to shutdown. And we've seen this pattern with this Panthers team of the ups and downs. They just one week they show up. I mean, they have two losses this year by 20 or more points, which is very bizarre. Like to think that they got blown out week one. And then they got blown out again last week against the Bucs. You saw the first time it happened. They bounced back the following week. And that's what we expect here. Bryce Young isn't as terrible as you looked in that game. The only thing I take happiness in, Chad, is that we can't play this in the contest because, like you said, this would have been an auto play. This one right away when it came out, I was like, oh, this is too easy. And that's the only fear here is It is way too easy. I can't believe we're still getting the hook. I still can't believe we're getting the hook on this one. So yeah, interesting where this one goes by Thursday kickoff.
00:05:51
Speaker 1: I'm shocked we're getting the hook in this one. It doesn't make any sense to me. I'm trying to figure out where the Green Bay money is coming from and why the professionals haven't moved this down to three at this point. Because normally at this point, we're 48 hours out. We've seen movement on wherever the money is going. Like we saw it last year. or last week with the Bears, the money was on the Bears and the Bears moved from two and a half to three. We were lucky to get it earlier in the week to get the best of the number. We've generally seen the professional money move this, especially with these hooks at this point. So I'm a little surprised that three and a half is still available. I'm not saying it worries me, but the Packers are also coming off a very physical game against the Lions. The Panthers, it's like they barely played on Sunday. So it's almost like the Panthers had like a mini bye week because they got to be physical a little bit and get their reps in, but they're not really injured because they barely were on the field against the Bucs. So planting a flag in the sand here. Las Vegas Raiders at the New York Jets. A little bit of a line flip here. The Raiders had been One and a half, one point underdogs. Now the Jets are half point underdogs. The Raiders were not competitive on Sunday against the Rams at all. The Jets were competitive for basically one and a half quarters against the Dolphins at home. There is no doubt that the Raiders are a coaching mismatch. Clint Kubiak versus Aaron Glenn in this game. probably a bit of a talent mismatch too. The Raiders have been such a public dog in this spot that they have flipped the line. And when I first mentioned the Raiders on Sunday, you were immediately walking me back as if I was about to step in it. Now the Jets are underdogs. I don't think that's professional money that's moved the Raiders. I think that's the public in the early stages of the week. Am I right? Am I wrong? Are the Jets the side here?
00:08:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think your initial instinct was right, though, in the fact of the Raiders. There is some pro money on the Raiders' side. I know some pros that came in on that just because it is a plus number, right? It was plus one and a half. We talked. If you would have taken the money line, you could have either got even odds or teased them up to plus seven and a half. I know plenty of people that did that, but I just always knew this was going to be a Jets side. It was going to flip. That's where I wanted to be was on the Jets side just simply because they're just– I'm always looking for opportunities on teams. And, okay, even I can make excuses why the Raiders lost that game and how they were. It looked closer than perhaps the general public. On the other side, the Jets, I don't know if anyone's buying that, right? They got embarrassed. They lost to one of the worst teams in football. Everyone's so out on them. And this one right away jumped out to me. It was like, oh, my God. This is going to flip, but I'm going to get the Jets a home dog to Kirk Cousins, and it did. So this is almost Simon Says, honestly, but I want to be patient and hope maybe more pros keep betting their Raiders, and maybe I get two and a half on the Jets, which is exactly where I want to be with this Jets team. I want to get as many points as I can with Geno Smith and Aaron Glenn. I mean, my God, those two guys are absolute train wrecks. So just the matchup-wise, I think there's a lot that Jets could take away against in that Rams game. And a lot of teams have been doing the same against the Raiders, which is just running the ball right up the middle. Like, basically, if you run up the middle on this Raiders team or if you just keep it away from Max Crosby's side, they just can't stop the run. We saw last week they gave up over 200 yards on the ground. And we don't know yet if Brees Hall is going to be playing in this game. But even that guy, Allen, I think was the back. there running the ball with he looked good honestly.
00:10:02
Speaker 1: He looks good and honestly if your goal is to run it up the middle that's what he's going to do he's not going to beat you on the edges he doesn't have that kind of speed I think he's a better receiver than than people expected because Brees Hall has been so multi-dimensional but if you just got to run up the middle he's going to be perfectly good at getting you what you need in that situation.
00:10:25
Speaker 2: So there's one shop at plus one and a half right down the jets. I'm grabbing it, throwing in a couple of teasers, but yeah, this, this isn't Simon says just because I think we might be able to get to that two and a half.
00:10:37
Speaker 1: I'm glad we align on that. I almost, I almost want to take the Raiders. And then after the research yesterday, I'm like, I don't know about this. That feels, feels tricky. And it's also gross. I think people should know that there's a lot of gross conversations we're going to have this week. You got to do hard things sometimes when you're betting, and this is going to be one of those weeks. Betting the Panthers, betting the Jets, Arizona plus six and a half at Dallas. That was a early Sunday lean, really just to grab the six and a half on your part, getting the Cardinals. I'm surprised it hasn't gone to seven yet. I think now that the Cowboys won in prime time, they don't look great. They let the Eagles stay in it. The Cardinals can be competitive. You see it every single week. They do stick around in these games. They don't take their foot off the gas, even when they're out of it. Six and a half is a lot of points for the Cowboys to have to protect with a really bad defense.
00:11:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, any time, like I said, you can fade this Cowboys team with a number this big. You want to take a position. Now, I was going the other way. This was at 6 really early. I was working at like 4 in the morning. Checked the lines. It was 6 at a bunch of different shops. Now, just checked again, it's back up at 6.5. So that shows there is some pro money here coming on the Cowboys, which I am shocked by. I thought this would be a pros versus shows game. Pros all over the Cardinals and the public backing this Cowboys team, which... You know, that game against the Eagles, that's the exact type of game Dak shines in, right? Zero pressure, you know, bad NFC East team. And he made the throws, give a ton of respect to Dak, but that was the type of game where it's, you know, they can't stop the runs. Now they're bringing the safeties up and Dak's getting one-on-one on the outside with CeeDee Lamb and Pickens. Like, it just doesn't get much easier for him in those type of scenarios. So this is another great matchup for Dak, but like you said, on the flip side, Arizona's offense is better than the Eagles' offense. They got playmakers. They don't have injuries across the board. They got guys who can really move the ball. So I just can't get over it. It's too many points. It's another line where it's like, okay, because it's moving, I'll be patient here. I want to bet the Cardinals. Maybe I'll get seven. Maybe I'll get seven and a half just because everyone's coming in. They're not only betting this Cowboys team, the amount of money that's on their money line. So they're just being heavily teased too. Everybody's on this one. And, I mean, how many times have we been burned in this exact scenario? of this Cowboys team losing to this Cardinals team, Chad. So yeah, a little, little, little dated history here, but I can't help it. I gotta, I gotta throw someone. I'm checking right now at Polymarket, but I'm almost positive Polymarket. They're at five and a half really early in the morning. Yeah, they're back to six and a half. So across the board, six and a half on this Cardinals team, if you want it.
00:13:28
Speaker 1: Or just wait. Like if it goes to six, you know, you're losing the hook, obviously. You won't get that on prediction markets. If it moves to six at books, it'll move to five and a half at prediction markets. But I agree. Be patient. There's still people who are waking up today and are going to be looking at the Cowboys game last night. And even if they're just paying attention to the final score, they're going to come in on the Cowboys. It could potentially move that number back up to seven. Minnesota at Detroit. Detroit is a three and a half point favorite. Simon, do you have something to say here?
00:14:06
Speaker 2: Simon Says, give me Minnesota Vikings.
00:14:10
Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings plus three and a half. This is Simon Says presented by Polymarket. The Minnesota Vikings are currently trading at 53% at three and a half on Polymarket. Interesting choice. The initial move was on the Lions from three and a half to three and it's gone back up. Give me your take here. I've been grappling with this game. So I'm excited to hear you explain here.
00:14:40
Speaker 2: It's honestly no different than the Bucs last week against Carolina. I'm simply playing a divisional team on the road that's undervalued by the general public against a team that's overinflated by the general public. That's what the Panthers were last week. That's what Detroit is this week. People are claiming that their coach, Campbell, is some genius. There's two sides to it, right? These people, they think they're so smart, and I get it. It's like, in their perfect world, Campbell... made the right call because it worked out. And they're saying, well, there's no way a team can waste four minutes on their own 24-yard line and score a touchdown. That could have gone so bad for Campbell. That was our whole point, right? That Green Bay could have scored a touchdown. Detroit would have got the ball back with zero timeouts and a minute left on the clock. If that had broken the right way for Green Bay. Is he still a genius?
00:15:26
Speaker 1: No.
00:15:27
Speaker 2: He got lucky. That's our whole point. And looking at this matchup, even you go back to last year, The Vikings had nothing last year, right, at the quarterback position. It's fair to say, right? They were no different than this year. You can say, well, JJ was much better last year than Kyler's been this year. That is fair, right? I can't disagree with that one. But when these two teams played last year, Minnesota beat them twice. One time they beat them by 13. Now, like we said, that was a down year for Detroit. But if you go back and watch, it's all about golf's weakness. What is golf's weakness? Pressure up the middle, getting off his spot. We know that. It's his Achilles heel. He cannot play against the Blitz. That's literally all the Vikings do. That was the reason we loved him last week with Daniel Jones. It would have worked out if Kyler Murray had an ounce of talent in his body, couldn't do anything offensively. Daniel Jones threw for 100 yards. It's going to be the exact same scenario here. They're going to take away golf. Now, will Gibbs beat us? That's the same thing that last week with Jonathan Taylor. Jonathan Taylor almost beat us last week with this Vikings team. that, that would be the only weakness I can see here is Gibbs running the ball heavily because they're going to make, they're going to force it out of golf's hands. Like you just, you've seen Flores play him now in multiple years. It's what he does. He just blitz, blitz, blitz, blitz, blitz his golf. So this is another number I think is going to go to three. It's, it's like no different than Green Bay last week. Green Bay went to three at a bunch of shops right before kick went back to three and a half, just because there's so much money on this, this Detroit team. And, I think the same thing might happen here this week, but just in case the public comes in on the undefeated Vikings, this won't be it. I know people are waiting for them to trip up and this would be a trap spot. They've avoided about five trap spots. They should not be undefeated. They really have had so many things bounce their way. This feels like a type of game where they could literally blow out Detroit. Like, I just think it's that good of a matchup defensively. And I've been waiting, waiting for the Vikings to have a good offensive showing and, I know it's tough to say because they did nothing against that Colts terrible defense, but it's another great matchup for them. And we've just seen these divisional games and this division will be really close and tough. So, yeah, give me the plus three and a half on this Minnesota Vikings.
00:17:32
Speaker 1: So, look, I'm with you. When I was going through this game yesterday, I was looking back. Kyler Murray was bad, but the Vikings could have easily won that game. by more than two touchdowns. They missed a field goal. Kyler Murray had a pass to Justin Jefferson that he caught at the two yard line with about five minutes left, excuse me, that was called back for a holding penalty. There were moments in that game where the score goes from 16 to 10 to 25 to 10 very easily. And we're probably not talking about Minnesota's offense in the same sort of detrimental way that we're talking about it today. And I went back and looked at the Lions game. The Lions could have lost that game 40 to 17. There were so many chances for their defense to completely break and they got the exact right call penalty in completion at the exact right time. But Jordan Love was lighting them up. And the Packers, similar, like They had really bad luck. Their field goal kicker missed two field goals. That was weighing on the decisions that Matt LaFleur would make about what they were going to do in certain situations. The box score, the final score does not represent what the underlying box score for these two teams showed in their previous games from this past weekend. I wanted to find ways to back the Lions and I couldn't do it. I'm glad you're on Minnesota at three and a half. I totally agree with you. that getting the hook is the right side here. I think if it gets to three, it's probably a pass. The trends are not in favor of teams that are short home favorites in the division. So the key here is getting Minnesota on the hook, which is why I like you saying it. It is Simon says. A hundred percent.
00:19:38
Speaker 2: And what you just said is so true that if it's two and a half, it was just like Detroit last week. That's the Detroit number, right? If it's two and a half and everything you said is also true where in another world where Detroit loses that game and the Vikings do blow out, is this a pick-em? Most likely. And that's the type of thing where you have to take advantage of that where it's like, okay, the general public's overreacting to what feels like a lucky win by Detroit and an unlucky no blowout by the Vikings. Like you said, everything went wrong in so many ways. They're just so well coached, especially defensively. They keep finding ways to win those games. The only real hesitation here is just last week we saw all these undefeated teams lay such eggs. The Vikings, yes, could they lay another egg? Sure. But this is the exact type of game they get up for. The Colts made sense of them not getting up for that game, whatever you want to say, after a bye week. This is not that type of scenario. This is for the division– a rivalry that these two teams do not like each other. And just once again, we talked about it. It's like, okay, it feels like we're getting a free point because Detroit got very lucky on a couple of missed field goals last week and everything kind of broke their way in that game. So yeah, I'm glad we're on the same page.
00:20:49
Speaker 1: I need to tell you guys about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the best new way to trade in sports. In the past, if you wanted action on the game, you'd put some money in and if your team was doing well, And you want to cash out. They lock the trade or take a huge fee. But Polymarket is a prediction market, a stock exchange for sports where you can buy and sell on your teams. I've tried them all. And Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And now they've launched a new feature, squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. Check the link in the description to join my squad today and sweat picks together every Sunday in the Polymarket app. Download the Polymarket app today and use SHARP when you sign up. That's SHARP to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. I'm also excited about this next game, Simon. Atlanta is visiting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This line is two and a half. It opened at one and a half Tampa Bay as the favorites. My first instinct on Sunday was I liked Atlanta. You kind of gave me a look like I needed to relax, a little bit like you did with the Raiders and the Jets. And it was for two reasons. I thought Atlanta got lucky, did not play particularly well, and still beat the Niners. Or rather, the Niners beat themselves. I thought the Bucs had the perfect game. Everything had to go right for the Bucs. Baker only threw the ball 11 times. They scored 43 points. It was over in the first quarter. The Falcons are getting all the tickets. The Falcons are the public side here. We've got a pretty significant reverse line move because the money is coming in on the Bucs. So this is clearly moved in the direction because of the professionals.
00:22:54
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:22:54
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:22:55
Speaker 2: And I, I, that's why I was trying to not like talk out because I didn't know what was going on with it either. But this one jumped over the way of like, I don't know if we should be back in Atlanta here. And that was Sunday night. And obviously I ran through the model and everything like that now and talk to different groups and yeah, everyone's taking positions on this Bucks team, right? Atlanta, as good as they are, we've seen, we've seen this division. It's, it's, For the general public, it's very hard to handicap. For us, I feel like this has been our moneymaker this year, the NFC South. We've had a good read on most of these teams, most games, and it's no different this week. Last week, not that I was all in on the Bucs team, but it really was about playing the number and the situation, the spot. My only hesitation this week is it's Baker still. I have no clue what to do with this Baker situation, the fact that He rushed back. He's playing with a glove. It's, it's not throwing hand. So it's not the biggest deal, but it's still a, it still matters. He's still taking snaps. And you saw last week, right? They just, they didn't want to put him in that scenario. Cause they, even they know he rushed back, right? The fact that they only needed him to throw what Chad say seven times, 11, 11 times. Yeah. Makes or seven completions, whatever it was, it makes total sense. Just because, you know, why put, why put that risk out there? So, This is another matchup that historically isn't great for Baker. It's a front four in Atlanta that can get pressure. But we've talked about their secondary is terrible in Atlanta. They've had so many injuries. That's how you can beat them. And last week, they would have got away with a purdy, but the injuries caught up to them, right? And then think snowballed were the turnovers. That was just, we talked about, that was a game that was due for the 49ers. They're due to give up a bunch of sacks. They're due for a bunch of turnovers. That's just the minutia of football in the NFL. The Bucs on the flip side, they've been playing really well. I think we have four straight games now, three straight at least, of them playing really good football. Not just offensively, but defensively.
00:24:50
Speaker 1: Defense has been outstanding.
00:24:53
Speaker 2: I was killing them just saying, what does this guy do? His defense does nothing. It had done nothing for the first three weeks. It's totally flipped. These guys are playing hard for him. They're playing really competitive football. This is the type of matchup where I think you know, panics can struggle here. It's going to be, it's going to be a defense going to get them off his spot, especially a lot of blitzes up the middle. So yeah, just another bucks line. Like if you want to join the public, I totally get it, but I think you can wait. I just think the more pros I've talked to, it just seems like they're going to be taking a higher position on this bucks team. You might be able to get a three here. You might be able to get a three and a half potentially. Like that's how much respect and money is coming to this buck side. So yeah, if you want to grab them now, probably market's ready to move to minus two and a half. I, you know, I would still grab the Bucs here. That's where the value is going to be for me right now. I'm not going to back this Atlanta team, but that gets up to plus three, plus three and a half. That's a real conversation. I'm inclined to fade Baker when he gets up to a minus three favorite at this point. So right now it's still a Bucs line at this point.
00:25:52
Speaker 1: The one thing that is keeping me from pulling the trigger on the Bucs, I have not bet this game because by the time I realized it yesterday that like the right side might be the Bucs, It had already moved to the two and a half. And I'm like, eh, because there is this trend where the home favorites in the division of three or less, that tends to be a bad spot. So I've got conflicting things here. I've got what I'm seeing from the money moving. I've got what I'm seeing, what I think I saw from the Bucks defense and the Falcons, I think being pretty lucky. And then I've got a historical trend that is balancing all that. So I think I might just hold off here and see what number I can get at the moment that I feel like I got to make a decision. I'm not there yet. Cleveland plus three and a half at the Pittsburgh Steelers. Look, we both tagged this one on Sunday night. It was Cleveland plus four. It has moved to three and a half. It's not just wise guys. Browns are very much a public dog. Simon, since the Browns were shut out in week one, I mean, the Browns were destroyed and blown out in week one against the Jaguars. The final scores of their games have been a four-point win, a three-point win, a three-point win over the Steelers a month ago, a five-point loss on the road to the Jets, a three-point win and a three-point win. What's interesting to me, I actually am really impressed with how Mike McCarthy has made adjustments to this offense, the play calling that Todd Munkin is doing with Deshaun Watson, and defensively what both teams are doing. I think they've been great. Here's what's interesting to me. The Steelers were three-point favorites in Cleveland when they played a month ago. Now they open as four-point favorites at home. So in these past four weeks, bookmakers, and you probably have too, have clearly adjusted Cleveland's power rankings because this line could have been, say, six instead of three. So that to me is interesting. Is it enough of an adjustment with the Steelers coming back from Europe, not taking the buy after... A long travel week.
00:28:30
Speaker 2: Do not get this number at all. The books are telling us that Pittsburgh is about to blow out the Browns. And I just do not get it at all. So this isn't a game where I was way, way more confident Sunday night. I pulled back a little bit, especially my money on this one, where I was going to be putting a large amount of money into this spot. I just couldn't believe it's like I'm getting a dog in a divisional game that's facing a team coming back from Europe. like that's, this is a pretty magical spot.
00:29:01
Speaker 1: Why are we like, I feel the same way you do.
00:29:04
Speaker 2: You ran through it though. The Browns, all their games are close except that one. So I think we both need to pause here. Cause we're just, we're missing something. It just does not make sense. But the books, I will say the books have been worse this year than in previous years on certain lines. Like we've seen it this year. I mean, it's just, It's rare they just lay bad numbers than they did the last couple weeks, especially on these double-digit dogs that are winning outright. We've seen that. You can't just blindly back what you're seeing from the books. In the past, this would be an immediate smash spot on Pittsburgh because it's just such an egregiously bad line. They could have opened this at two or three. at two and a half or three, and they would have got pretty split money here. It's all the pros, all the public, for the most part, is just hammering the Browns. That's where all the early money is, and it hasn't budged. Like Chad said, it came down to four. Some shops had it at four. It came down to three and a half. But other than that, it's with Sydney or so. If it moves to three, I will be feeling so much better about my Cleveland bets. If it goes back up, it's like, oh, God. Or me and Chad stepping in it once again because I just do not get this. This is such a bad line where Pittsburgh, even if they're up 14 and a half, I don't care. It's a second-half bet, honestly, for me. We've seen these teams slow down the second half coming off these international games. And Deshaun Watson is a second-half merchant. I mean, he's been incredible in these fourth quarters. So bizarre, bizarre line by the Shops.
00:30:24
Speaker 1: It's so funner to me Are we just, are we overthinking it? Like, what are they telling us? What are the books telling us? Because we were like, everything says it's, we both came to the same conclusion at the same time yesterday without talking about it, which was something doesn't feel right here. Like it doesn't make any sense that this line hasn't gone down to three yet. It doesn't make sense that it opened at four other than people didn't want to over adjust their rankings on the Browns. too much. But I agree with you. I was going to make a Chad's choice, but something was like, it feels fishy. It almost feels too obvious, and then I'm just being the sucker.
00:31:09
Speaker 2: If you want a useless stat, since 2024, every time the Browns are a three-point dog, so plus three or plus three and a half, they beat Pittsburgh outright. And every time they're a six-point dog, They have lost both those games outright and against the spread. So we've had a weird trend here with this. And we've been back in the Browns through this whole run that we're basically– we've been on them for this. And that just jumped out to me right when I looked at that. It's like, oh, this is basically the standard practice every year by the sportsbooks. They just basically– they're hanging this at 3.5 or hanging it at plus 6, plus 6.5. There's literally no in between these last couple years with these two teams. And last year, I'm almost positive in early October– pittsburgh beat obviously that browns team then after christmas the browns upset and beat uh that pittsburgh team i don't remember sanders had like a game of his life game of his life they went 13 to 6 and that was so shocking the last time they played it was a thursday night we know but a 27 to 24 game like i can't believe the browns put that many points against a really good pittsburgh defense so you know maybe we are overthinking this one like you said maybe we should just be blindly betting this browns team like this is a good number we both feel good about it we're just We're worried it's too easy. That's what's holding us back where last week we had another line we thought was too easy and we talked ourselves out of it, took the other side in that Giants-Houston game. I'm trying not to do the same here where it's like this one feels way too easy. Maybe we just have a really good read here.
00:32:41
Speaker 1: Last year, teams that have gone overseas and then come back and not had a bye, 9-12, 21 times it's happened when teams have– during this overseas– experience nine and 12 against the spread last year. Oh, and four. So there's clearly something there. That's what gives me a little bit more confidence. You heard Aaron Rogers who in his last season is amazing. Like going on television and going to his press conference is just laying waste to everything. He talked about it too. Like the NFL doesn't care about us. They don't care about players. They don't care about our health. They got us playing a game the week after we get back from Paris. Like, I do think that has an impact here.
00:33:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you have to also factor in two of those wins were the Rams of 49ers who played in our Wednesday game or Thursday, I guess, and then came back and basically had a mini bye and then played their games. And I think the Rams played on like a Monday night and the 49ers played at home against Miami. So the Chad's adding those two in as well. So it's like, even if you take those two out, it's now seven and 12. Like it's really, it's not something we're just making up here. It's really situationally, it's tough for teams to, it's a short week technically, right? You're playing a game Sunday. Like you said, Rogers did those interviews. Okay. That means they're jumping on a flight at, I don't know, say one o'clock or two o'clock Eastern night.
00:34:05
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:34:05
Speaker 2: Yeah. They're flying back to Pittsburgh. They get home at Pittsburgh, say 10 PM, maybe 11 PM, go to bed and they wake up and now it's Monday. It's like, all right, now they're, they're back in the States where their bodies aren't going to adjust for another day or two. So it is one of those scenarios where I think we don't, People think we're overrating it. I think it's a bigger deal than people realize. That's a lot to ask of a team. And like Roger was saying, which is my whole point from the get-go, is the league acts like they care about these players, but the evidence, it suggests otherwise.
00:34:36
Speaker 1: Indianapolis at the Jacksonville Jaguars. So Jags are seven and a half point favorites right now. The question is, where is the bottom for the Indianapolis Colts? The pros... do not think we have hit it yet. Simon, this is a pros Joe's game. Majority of the tickets are on the Jaguars. The money is on the Colts. I don't know if they're impressed with what they did last week against the Vikings. If it's just playing the spot in a divisional game, you know, these games have historically been close. It's normally been the Jags is the bad team coming in and upsetting the Colts is the good team. She was on the other foot now. Um, this is one of those gross games, but I can't tell you how many trends in, in our, our backing the Colts in this game. In addition to what we're seeing from the, from the data.
00:35:35
Speaker 2: Yeah. I have no idea what to do with this one. I think we're, we, we both want to be in the Colts. It's a divisional game. And, uh, we don't exactly, but we don't, there's just other games. I'd rather put my money into and, um, maybe I'll just take the coward route and end up teasing the Jaguars down. Cause I do think the Jags are a really good team coming off the extra week of preparedness. And you know, the Colts, that wasn't everything game they lost against Minnesota. Like that was just a drag it out fist fight and they had it. They could have easily won and stole that game. How do they bounce back? Cause I already talked about the Eagles. I have more insight. I've seen the Eagles cause I know people inside the locker room. They are telling me the locker room's vibes are the worst it's ever been. Like they can remember them since 2000. So that's 26 years. The guy I was talking to was telling me this is the worst the vibes in the locker room's ever been. The U.S. defense came out and gave you nothing. Totally laid an egg. And they have no injuries. There's no excuses there. They just, they are bad. And they just look like they quit on it. Can the same happen to us here with the Colts? That's my fear. Where it's like, if the Jaguars come out high, they're up 14 to 3. We're talking the new NFL. That wouldn't phase me. This Colts team, that would phase me because now you're asking Daniel Jones to have to drop back and pass the ball a ton. And we've seen this Jaguars team. That's where they're good. They're really good against teams that need to pass. Well, they're not great against the run, but they're really good. It feels like this year, especially against dropback quarterbacks. So don't do this one because my initial instinct is just like, oh, my God, seven and a half points. I'm going to take that with this Colts team just because it feels like they can backdoor. But I really don't want to. I like it. It's just. These are the games I'm really invested in. I know the books are just giving me that hook because they know I'm a sucker and I'm going to take it.
00:37:18
Speaker 1: Well, another game that I worry I am being suckered and I need an opinion here. Baltimore at Buffalo. Buffalo is now a three and a half point favorite. It's juiced to go down to three. So the money is coming in on Baltimore. That is pro money because all of the tickets are on Buffalo and This to me is entirely about Lamar Jackson coming back. We won't really know until Wednesday, but again, we've been in this spot. A lot of the noise is that he's coming back. It's hard to do an offense versus defense comparison for these teams because the metrics for the Ravens are so noisy, given the fact Lamar just hasn't been out there. It skewers all the stats. We know the Bills offense is elite, elite, elite, rushing and passing. Amazing. The Ravens defense, they get a lot of credit reputationally, but you look at just about every metrics advanced, they are middle of the pack. I think the only thing where they're solidly in the top 10 is like, you know, Attempted, like rushing yards after contact in which they limit opposing runners to yards gained after contact. It's another dog off of a blowout loss, so 57% against the spread, same as the Panthers. If I'm getting the hook, I kind of got to take the Ravens here if Lamar is playing.
00:39:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the key. We're betting this as if Lamar is playing this game. I think we're both on that same page. My biggest L by far from preseason to now is I was so hyped about Minter and what he would do for this Ravens defense, and I was so down on Harbaugh and what he would do for the Giants. Couldn't have been more wrong. Harbaugh has obviously been the exact thing the Giants needed. Yes, you can make all these reasons hello, they've been, all these close wins and all the stuff that's gone the way of the Giants. A lot of that comes down to the coaching and what he does inside the locker room, the mentality he gives to his players on the flip side. He left, and the struggles of this Ravens team of blowing double-digit leads at halftime has continued. This is a team that now I think they have three losses this year or they've been up by 10 points or more. And that's not– you can just simply blame it on Minter. That's a locker room thing. This is something that's carried over for years now with this Ravens team. So, yeah, blindly going off the head-to-head when these two teams play, when it's Lamar versus Josh Allen, this will come down to a field goal. This is not going to be either side blowing out. Both these offenses, especially if Lamar's playing, they could keep it close. When we've seen this, this Bill's defense is atrocious. Like they just, they can't hold on to leads. They don't have the, they don't have the defensive package. And that's our hesitation is that we have no idea if it's Lamar, if it's Snoop, obviously this line goes up even more. So that's why I'm not going to bet too heavy into it. And it's, we're in a tough spot here because Lamar doesn't have an agent. So we don't have any inside info. It's, it's all about how Lamar feels and what Lamar says. And, I don't know if you've seen Lamar. He don't give a damn about you or what I think. And he'll do whatever he wants. He'll practice Friday and say, you know what? I ain't myself. I'm not playing. And that's when they put out that report. And it's like, you know, everyone's getting killed in the shops. I talk to the books are getting killed by Lamar right now. Cause last week they, he practiced on a Friday quarterbacks, whoever practiced on a Friday, almost always play. The number was plus one and a half on the bangles on Friday for the whole day. So that's what's so brutal. And, Just going back to their head-to-heads, everyone remembers last year. Me and Chad finally remember this one because we had Ravens plus one and a half. The line flipped to minus one and a half on the Ravens. They lost 41-40. And game number two pointer, something crazy happened, I remember, at the end of that game. I can't remember exactly what it was, but I think someone dropped the ball. The Ravens should have obviously covered and won outright. Didn't work out. Bills won. The year before that, Bills went 27-25. Like I said, they just– There's a pattern here, people. They play very close. Now, there's an outlier game here. Ravens won 35-10. I don't know if you remember that game as well. The Ravens just absolutely dominated and blew them out the Bills game. It was just a very bizarre. Josh Allen didn't have it. Game before that, 23-20 Bills. So, like, we just– you see the pattern here. They're just very close competitive games when these teams are both fully healthy. So– I am like you. I'm dug in on the Ravens. It feels, once again, too easy. If it's Lamar with the Ravens, I know he's not going to be the same player, obviously, with a high ankle sprain, but even 75% Lamar is better than Snoop Huntley. Let's be honest here. Snoop, as good as he is, he looked totally lost in that second half. Lamar's not like that. Lamar will stay competitive, keep them in this type of game. So, yeah, just playing the number here, and it's another game, though. If Lamar comes back and this gets to two and a half, I get it. If you want to take a position that builds, I totally support that. So it's really dictated here, the line and where we're at. And at plus three and a half, that to me is Lamar line.
00:42:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's not a full unit game yet because you got to plan for what if Lamar isn't going to play. But the Ravens are definitely where you start to build a position. And when we get more encouragement about Lamar, maybe you keep adding to that position. based on rumors, trends, innuendos, you're betting. There's no guarantees. You're betting on the bet. You're betting on Lamar that he's going to be on the field as much as you're betting on the Ravens that they can cover the hook against the Buffalo Bills. Tennessee at Cincinnati. Cincinnati is a double-digit favorite, 10.5 points. Are we adults, Simon? Are we adults?
00:43:19
Speaker 2: By adults, can we just avoid this game? Because I want to be on Cincinnati. I'm 0 for 1,000 on these 10-point games. I don't know what to do with it.
00:43:27
Speaker 1: It's Cincinnati or nothing.
00:43:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree.
00:43:29
Speaker 1: And so let's make it nothing because we know we should be betting on Tennessee, but we're adults. And fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. We don't have a feel for this Tennessee team, and we don't like them very much, and we don't think they're being coached very well. We don't believe in Cam Ward. we think that all the rules about big underdogs can be broken when we're talking about a team that is as this challenged. And we're also talking about a Bengals team that is, they're unreliable narrators. You can't look at the Bengals coming off a bye, going down 13, nothing, and then scoring four touchdowns in 24 minutes. Like what are we going to get? Are they going to, are they going to be able to build a lead and hold onto it? Like, I don't trust any of them.
00:44:21
Speaker 2: That's fair. But this is the time of year, though, when these teams start being who they should be.
00:44:27
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree.
00:44:28
Speaker 2: And I think we both agree. Tennessee, they're not as bad as they were last year. I will give them credit for that. They've been very competitive in a lot of these games. I remember last year they had like– it felt like nine straight weeks they couldn't cover. They just were not a competitive team where this year they have been obviously more competitive. But it all comes back to Cam Ward, man. He's just bad. Yeah. Even at the end of that game, he missed a guy that was streaking open for a touchdown.
00:44:52
Speaker 1: Wide open.
00:44:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just you're a pro in this league. You want to run your mouth. You want to be the number one pick. You have to hit those throws. And it's no fault against Cam Ward. He didn't hit that throw. It's telling, though, where it's just like, okay, dude, you're not– this is the game for you. You're really good. You're not consistent enough. You're probably a backup. On the flip side, this Bengals team, when they come into this season, I thought they were going to be an absolute juggernaut. They've been a little bit in between. Like, one week their defense showed up, so the offense doesn't show up. Now, last week, that second half, they finally put it all together. That's what's giving me so much confidence back in them where it's like, finally, the offense put it together. Five straight touchdowns on five drives. That's what they should be, man. They have so many weapons. And, my God, the amount of noise I heard from people saying how wrong I was about Bengals' offensive line coming into the season. Now, if you look across the board, they're top five in basically every passing category, pass blocking category. I know run blocking is not the greatest, but we've talked about their protection. A lot of it fell on Joe. Joe holding the ball too long. They were taking sacks that people put against the offensive line where it's like, no, that's a Joe Burrow sack. Their offensive line is way better than people realize. People are coming around to them now. They're finally realizing, okay, this offensive line is pretty legit. Defensively, you see those 2D tackles, how good they've been this year. I think they're right. top three in sacks between two tackles this season with nine. Like they've been really good. So yeah, it's a game like checking here. I'm trying to talk myself into the bangles. Cause I just feel like it's a good value. And I have this at 12 and a half. So like right now I'm getting two points of value on the bangles. I've just been so wrong. These 10 point games. That's why I'm not more confident. It's just like, I can't get it right. And Chad said it, we need an adult in the room. Cause I can't get Tennessee right either. So happy to avoid it as well. Good.
00:46:36
Speaker 1: Let's talk about the Los Angeles chargers. Quote, visiting, unquote, the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams are six and a half point favorites. It has come down a full point from seven and a half through seven down to six and a half. The Rams are getting all the tickets. What's funny to me is we felt so much better last week, for example, betting the Dolphins in a similar spot than backing the Chargers. And it's the Chargers side. Joe Alt is returning to practice this week. Lad McConkie is fully healthy. They've had a bye week to figure something out. Get Justin Herbert to stop trying to be a hero because he feels like he has no other choice. And that is not a knock on Justin Herbert. He's got no one to help him. Like, Are we passing because we lost the best of the number? But it's the Chargers. The Chargers are the play. In every trend, every scenario, the Chargers are the play in this game. But we've been burned on that.
00:47:53
Speaker 2: Exactly. 100% they're the play. And this is a game where we can afford to be patient because you just said we missed the best of the number. Is this really going to go to a 5.5%? Maybe if it does, that makes even more of a smash spot. If anything, that gives us more confidence about this Chargers team. So, yeah, seven and a half. It was great value. Still seven at a couple of different shops. But, you know, most places like Playa Market have moved in now to six and a half. So that's what we'll play. And I want to be on the Chargers like we've talked about. They're just they're not going 0-17. They're not going to not cover every week right now. They're up to 0-6-1 against the spread, wherever it is, 0-5-1 against the spread. they'll find it eventually the market will correct. But yeah, if I can avoid them again this week, Chad, I'm happy to do it. It's just not an enjoyable experience. They're terrible. They have no weapons. I mean, if you look at the spreadsheets of the pressure rates against Herbert, how bad his receivers are, and then just not dropping the ball, but getting open, there's zero separation, especially with Ladin McConaughey out of the lineup and Omar in Hampton, he's not done what you thought he would do as a running back. He's not coming in there and really taking the load. And, He's not figured out the Mike McDonald offense either, and you could say, well, they have three guys in the middle of the offense line that cannot block. They have a center that can't block, and they have two guards that can't block. You can't run the ball if you have no push up the middle, which is totally fair. So, yeah, another game where I really wanted to be on the Rams, honestly. And the way the numbers moved, it's like, okay, this is clearly a Chargers spot. Maybe I can just avoid it. But I feel like me and you are going to come in Sunday morning and talk ourselves into the Chargers, and I'm hoping we don't.
00:49:29
Speaker 1: I know. It's terrible. It's truly terrible. But if we're just looking at the stats and the numbers, We're not even having this conversation. We're not talking about what's on the field. We're not looking at the logos. We're not looking at anything. If we're just talking about the metrics, the history, the spot, it's not even a conversation. It's funny you say, there are teams that you know it's fun to bet them. Because like Arizona, you feel like they're going to be competitive throughout the game. They're going to have their spots. Even the Raiders have The Panthers have been that way for us over the years. And then there's teams that are completely unenjoyable because they have every opportunity to do the right thing and get you through the back door. And they have missed it every single time. And I feel like the Chargers have been that team for us for so freaking long. It's just a curse. So I get why we want to avoid them. The Dolphins are kind of becoming one of those teams that is fun. And they're seven and a half point home underdogs at New England. You mentioned this, I think, on Sunday night when it opened at seven and a half. It moved down to seven. Now back up to seven and a half. This will be another Pro Joe game. Like, lots of trends. Lots of trends. Backing the Dolphins, especially at the hook.
00:50:59
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Dolphins at home. They got us. The NFL, I can't believe it. They screwed us. This is always a 1 p.m. start. When in the world do the Dolphins play at 4 o'clock? My God, that made me so mad because it's a real thing, people. The Miami Dolphins wear white at home. Their opponents wear dark jerseys, and it wears them out. It really wears them out on that sideline. It's hot, it's humid, and the sun is going. It just beats them up. And you can go back to Tom Brady era. Tom Brady could not win in Miami. It was the most bizarre thing. But I always talk, there's certain teams have certain matchups, and whatever it is, Miami at home has done very well in their division especially against the Patriots so that one hurt me I'm not gonna lie like I know it sounds stupid people but like them moving I'm with you to 425 is a big deal like they're never going to be in the sun they'll always be in the shade this Patriots team and we need those type of edges where the Patriots are life a life light years better than this Dolphins team we know that I mean just on paper alone this Dolphins team is littered with bad talent and I got a lot of messages about, you really want to back Miami after a win, facing a Patriots team of extended rest off a bad loss. I get it. I tell you again, that's why the public is joining you, people. The public is absolutely hammering this Patriots side, and I give out that stat. Drake May, as a three-and-a-half-point favorite or more, he's 15-0 straight up. So, Drake May has entered that territory of Josh Allen and a couple other quarterbacks where you just blindly play him in teasers as big favorites. Like, he's just... He's profitable here. So that's another reason I totally get why people want to back this Patriots team. It's a nice spot for this Patriots team. But yeah, this is another game. Maybe check and help me avoid it. As we sit here right now, it's like, my God, I love this number so much in Miami. It's just a big, big number. And a Patriots team that I still don't think they have identity offensively. Like A.J. has not looked right now. This is the perfect spot for A.J. to get right. They're still not right running back-wise. They have a three-headed monster in the running backs, and they're still having fumble issues between the running backs. They're still– I mean, Trevion Henderson simply cannot play. This guy can't pass block. So to me, that's why Vrabel has brought in this other guy because he's looking at this guy. He's like, hey, you're incredibly fast. You're probably our most explosive offensive weapon. If you can't protect Drake, man, you're never going to see the field. You're totally irrelevant to this team if you can't pass block, which he cannot. If you go back and watch the film, Henderson is a liability on the offensive side when he tries to block. So yeah, I was hoping it was, it looked good last night. I saw it was going to seven, six and a half, a couple of different books. I was like, Oh nice. We're ahead of it. But yeah, Chad said it's right back up seven and a half. So I'll be patient here. See where this line goes. But yeah, I want to be on the side of Miami.
00:53:41
Speaker 1: I'm not going to be the one who can talk you out of it in this game. I'm sorry. Like, you know, maybe, maybe I can talk you out of Cincinnati, but, I can't be the adult in the room on Miami at plus seven and a half, even though what you just said about Drake May and Vrabel, we love Vrabel. We mostly love Vrabel as a dog winning straight up, but this is going to be a hard one to avoid on Sunday. Kansas City at Denver. Denver is a one and a half point home dog. I'm writing this column for The Athletic this football season that is really taking a look at sort of gambling strategies, how professionals think about gambling and decision-making. And this one was about fading conventional wisdom, i.e. fading the public. And the example I used was Patrick Mahomes. Since 2018, when he arrived in the league, it also happens to be when sports betting became legal. Nationwide, state by state, but nationwide. He is 101st out of 101 eligible quarterbacks covering the spread as a favorite when he is getting the majority of the tickets. That is a spot that professional bettors, people always want to fade. This is the scenario we are in this weekend. Patrick Mahomes, short favorite on the road getting a vast majority of the bets meaning the public loves him is it too obvious to fade mahomes like does it feel like spite because we're such suckers we took them against the seahawks but i feel like we need to be on the broncos here.
00:55:44
Speaker 2: Yeah i don't have a read on this one yet either i honestly wanted to be all over the broncos um but it's another line i'd It doesn't really make sense to me. Maybe it is the Mahomes factor, but I don't get why the Broncos are a dog here. Why aren't they getting the same treatment we gave the Seahawks last week? They beat the Seahawks at home. Why aren't the Broncos minus two, minus two and a half here? That, to me, is very interesting. I thought they should have done the same thing last week with the Seahawks line. If they would have hung the Seahawks at plus one and a half, plus two, I don't really think the market would have been that different. I really think they've still got the same amount of money It's just been a safer line in their position on the Seattle. But they really took a stand last week where this week they're still taking a stand, obviously, on the Broncos, but it's a lukewarm stand. They're just like, yeah, we're backing them, but I think they're the same spot we are where it's like, are they back? Does Sean Payton get that offensive right? Because it looked great against Arizona. It's obviously different worlds here. Talking about the Chiefs' defense compared to Arizona. And even last week, the Chiefs, I mean, say what you want about the Seahawks, and you could say, well, you know, Sam Darnold, he obviously outplayed this Chiefs defense. Sam Donald was making the throws of his life on those third downs. I mean, it was insane on third and 10, third and seven.
00:57:00
Speaker 1: Didn't matter.
00:57:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, didn't matter. He was just in his bag. And obviously he had the horrible throw in the end zone. But other than that, Sam was really on one last against the Chiefs defense. So that's what I'm trying to overreact to too much, where it's like the Chiefs defense played way better. Now your criticism, your fear right now of Mahomes and this Chiefs offense is It's warranted. I gave him a pass these early weeks because it's like, okay, he's coming off a major knee injury. He's playing himself into shape. That game against Seattle, he missed easy throws. Easy throws where he felt pressure around his body, but he wasn't actually being pressured. He had a pocket. He had space where old Mahomes, easy throws. He's dinking and dunking. This one, he was throwing off balance, throwing off one foot, never stepping into his throws. Just a lot of stuff for You know, Mahomes, he can get away with that stuff when he's on the move or he has a ton of pressure. But in a clean pocket, it looked weird where he just wasn't comfortable. And Denver's D-line is just like Seattle's D-line. They're really good. I mean, they are a really good D-line and a good defensive front. So, yeah, it's another line where if you want to go the coward route, I think what Chad talked about, I think it's true, where if you just want to take Denver up to 7.5 in a teaser, that to me feels very safe. This just feels like a very competitive, low-scoring, close match. And it's another line where I think I'll have a stronger opinion come Thursday where we sit here right now. I wanted to be on the Chiefs. I really did. But I'm pausing right now. I think Denver might be the actual side. So yeah, this is going to be a fun game to track all week.
00:58:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree. I wanted to be on the Chiefs yesterday. And then by the end of the day, when I'm finished with my research, I'm like, the only reason I am hesitating on Denver is my own psychology. That I just don't want to not, I don't want to fade Patrick Mahomes as a favorite. After he's off a loss.
00:58:49
Speaker 2: A double digit loss. Back in a team off a double digit road win. I know it's brutal.
00:58:54
Speaker 1: It's brutal. Like it's a huge factor. These are the little things like it just takes a minute to get your head around the problem here to do the math, work the problem. Sunday night. Philadelphia, Eagles visiting the Washington Commanders. Look, you said it about the locker room. Tanner McKee was rough. Just by virtue of the Cowboys being the Cowboys, the Eagles were able to keep it close. But at this point, are we just fading Philly?
00:59:29
Speaker 2: It's fair. It's going to come back, though, eventually, right? I mean, it has to come back eventually. The Bucs will eventually catch up to this line, and that's what they're doing here, right? This opened at 3, 3.5. They immediately moved to 4.5 just because, like Chad just said, the Eagles looked so bad. And shockingly, that was the first time in years we started a game with two drives, two touchdowns. So Tanner McKee showed up at first, and then, it spiraled, right? Once they had to go off the game plan of those first 30 scripted plays, he just fell apart. And that's, that's to be expected, right? It's a guy making his fourth start. He's like a sixth round or fifth round pick. You're not expecting much out of Tanner. That was my whole view going into where it's like this Eagles team, you know, as much as I hate the lose, it's coming to crow. Like I, I'm ready to move on from Sirianni. If this is what it takes to move on from Sirianni, so be it. We, we will get a potentially a top five, uh, maybe even higher pick. If it's the end of Jalen Hurts' career with the Eagles because of this whole blood clot issue, now we have a pick potentially used on a quarterback and Howie gets another shot where I'm trying to be, as an Eagles fan, I'm trying to be patient and trust Howie because he's got us two Super Bowls. Howie's had two bad drafts in a row and his free agency moves were terrible this year. I mean, that D-line, I think our D-line say it's $ 300 million. Did that look like a $ 300 million D-line to you last night, Chad?
01:00:51
Speaker 1: No, they could not stop anyone.
01:00:53
Speaker 2: Couldn't stop the run and got zero pressure, it felt like, on Dak. Just, it's all bad right now for Philadelphia. So, Commanders, the most shocking part about this line, I think Jane Daniels had something crazy where he hasn't won in, like, 11 games.
01:01:06
Speaker 1: He hasn't won, I think it's more than a year since he actually won an NFL game.
01:01:11
Speaker 2: Right. And we know he's been injured. He's had a bunch of injuries mixed in there. That's obviously part of it. But it also just shows how, like, he flashed to the pan that rookie year The books kind of gave him that leeway last year. They're giving him extra points because it's like, oh, my God, this guy was so incredible. You expected to come back around. It just has not come back around. The public has been getting burned on it. They've been backing commanders and Daniel Jones. I mean, Jayden Daniels has not worked. Jayden Daniels has just not lived up to that rookie year. So this is another one where, yeah, Jayden Daniels should light up this Eagles team, this defense. They look like they have no heart. They're not playing everything. Quinion Mitchell might miss this game as well. That's a big deal where we've seen Cooper Jean has been terrible. Reek Willen doesn't look like he can cover a number one. So, yeah, it's hard for me because I think the Eagles should bounce back here. This is another primetime game, but they look like they have no heart, and they're also checked out on listening to Sirianni.
01:02:06
Speaker 1: Last night, I don't know if you saw this in the graphic, they showed coaches' highest winning percentage through their first five seasons, I think.
01:02:18
Speaker 3: It was.
01:02:19
Speaker 1: I'm going to give some of the name wrong, but it was essentially John Madden, Don Shula, Tom Landry, someone else, and Nick Sirianni. And so we've talked about it for years, like he can't be that bad of a coach if his team keeps winning or are we finally finding out, oh, they were winning in spite of him, right? They got the right defensive coordinator at the right time. They got the right personnel at the right time. They had Jalen Hurts in the perfect spot with A.J. Brown. Is that Sirianni? Is that Howie? Is that circumstances? If we went back and looked, would all those other coaches have similar circumstances? Why do people hate Sirianni so much when he's been so successful?
01:03:13
Speaker 2: His personality is just unlikable. And he's very– like the way he is. I told you, I never– from the get-go, I try to give him a ton of leeway. Me and him never mix. I think a lot of Eagles fans are like that. The outside general public obviously hates this guy. Like he does these brash things where he's barking to cameras and he's running his mouth. And it's like, dude, you're a cornball. You are corny. Yeah, like last night, if you hate the Eagles, that was a great hate watch. As someone who hates Troy Aikman– My God, was that a great hate watch for me. And I just, I am loving, I know Troy Aikman's your boy, Chad, but I am loving the fact that this man, everyone's coming around to him being useless. Like there's, I can't tell you one thing this man's ever said that stuck with me or I've learned from Troy Aikman. And the fact that this man thought he was worth $ 30 million and ESPN and Joe Buck are laughing in his face and being like, yeah, you can do your job rest of the year and you can be woe is me and play the victim and Call the Super Bowl. We do not care. You ain't getting another dime from us. I am so happy. Troy Aikman is half a season away from being out of my life, hopefully, or at least going to Amazon Prime, wherever he's going to go next. But yeah, as a hate watch last night, my God, the Eagles just laid a total leg.
01:04:30
Speaker 1: I don't notice any during the broadcast. I don't notice Joe Buck and Troy Aikman, the animosity, the tension at all. So good for them.
01:04:41
Speaker 2: You've got to watch the start of the game because that's where the tension is. When they first cut to them on screen, especially if you go back and watch after they had that argument, whatever it was two games ago, about Troy Aikman was on him not getting his back or whatever it was. If you watch, they really won't even look at each other. Troy hates Joe so much right now. He won't even look at him when they do the little side thing. Joe Buck will turn to him and Troy will not even turn his way. He just hates that man right now, which is just hilarious.
01:05:08
Speaker 1: Listen. Maybe I have a little bit of a bias because I'm so old that I covered Troy Aikman and had been in the Cowboys locker room in moments where it was me, Troy Aikman, and like a coach and whatever. And to me, Troy Aikman has always been the exact same. He's like persnickety, arrogant, says exactly what is on his mind, doesn't give a shit, and I think some of his takes are terrible. Like his whole analytics take is ridiculous and backwards. And it's almost like he's trying to be biased against the analytics instead of really trying to understand what they're useful for and how to use them in a game and how coaches approach using analytics. It's like an all or nothing when it's just a more nuanced conversation. And that genuinely annoys me. But I'm loving that he's just off the rails and mad about this, not denying any of it. And then, and then we have to go into the game. I'll be honest. I don't watch pregame bullshit. Like I turn on the game the second the kickoff happens. I'm just so uninterested in anyone and what they have to say in advance of a game. I think it's all performative and stupid. And really these pregame shows are for executives and TV suites, not for anybody who's a fan or they're, you know, silly and a waste of time. Monday night football. Chicago, the Seattle Seahawks. Seahawks are three and a half point favorites right now, Simon. And I feel like this will wind up being a pros-Joes game. Caleb Fever is hot. The throws that he made against the New England Patriots on Thursday night have been broken down ad nauseum, especially that third down throw from deep in their territory through three guys, back shoulder to Roma Dunzey. Our buddy Ben Solak did an incredible breakdown about the velocity on the ball and how important that is. Then the Seahawks go out and dominate Patrick Mahomes. The public is coming on the Bears because there's so much hype for the Bears. I don't know what to do with this game.
01:07:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, same feeling as you. We're getting the hook with Caleb, I feel like.
01:07:30
Speaker 1: I know.
01:07:31
Speaker 2: How do we not want to back the Bears here?
01:07:33
Speaker 1: Doesn't that feel so public?
01:07:35
Speaker 2: Oh, 100%. It's no different than the Chiefs last week. We think we're the smartest guys in the room. We might get burned again. That's the fear here. It's like we knew exactly what we were walking into. We said it. We were literally betting on the Seahawks to lose three straight games. And that defense just basically said, nah, we're way too good to lose three straight games. And same thing here. The Bears, as high as we are on them, we've seen them struggle against really good defenses. I mean, we don't have a ton of proof. right? The only team they play that has a great defense is Minnesota, but they looked totally dysfunctional in that game. And, you know, you could blame the rain, everything like that. That doesn't excuse the run blocking scheme like that, that the rain, anything should have helped them run blocking scheme against the Minnesota. So yeah, for me, it jumps out to it right away where it's like, I wanted to be like, Chad, I want it, especially with the hook. I want to be in the bears, but we need to be smarter than that. We need to know we're walking into one here. So, I guess I'll take the Seahawks minus three or nothing at all in this matchup. But yeah, really tough game to handicap, honestly.
01:08:37
Speaker 1: We'll probably have more about this game on Thursday. My sense is there'll be some movement. There'll be more opinions to be had. We'll dig a little bit deeper on that game. Chad's choice is the Carolina Panthers plus three and a half. Simon says is the Minnesota Vikings plus three and a half. This has been interesting. Sharper Square, part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Thursday with the games we are zeroing in on, our survivor pick, our head-to-head battle, brass balls, so much more. You can watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video, subscribe to the channel, also download us from Spotify and Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until Thursday, love you.
01:09:30
Speaker 3: The early stages of your tenure, you really got to establish rapport with your team. And sometimes that means killing the mosquito with the axe, as we say in the business. And by that, I mean an overreaction. Just so your group knows that
01:09:44
Speaker 2: You mean business.