105: Yield Panic

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Welcome in to This Week in Bitcoin, episode 105.
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My name is Chris, chrislas.com, jupiterbroadcasting.com.
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Well, Bitcoiners said they wanted to take over the world.
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Turns out, when you ask for macro problems, well, the macro problems show up.
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Before we get into that, though, I do have just a very quick production note for you.
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All going to plan, this episode will be the first episode of This Week in Bitcoin with video.
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Yes, now, don't worry.
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It's just mostly me recording an audio show.
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So if you're an audio nerd, the show's not changing.
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But I do have some charts this week.
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And if you're using a podcasting 2.0 app that supports video, you can just flip between the audio and the video to your leisure.
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And, you know, the show's still going to be the same, still going to be the show as it always is.
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Just maybe a little extra layer there for the chart enjoyers.
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So I would like to know what you think.
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Check it out.
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Send me a boost.
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Give me some feedback and all of that.
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But let's get into some macro pain.
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And it's painful for multiple reasons.
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Yeah, you're going to have to let me talk about the bond market.
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I don't want to talk about the bond market.
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But Bitcoin is talking about the bond market.
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That's why your pamp went away.
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Now, normally the bond market's a pretty boring thing, so we don't talk about it.
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It's sort of priced based on inflation expectations, how growth is going, what the debt issuance is, if Fed policy is scary or not.
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Those kinds of things often impact the price or the yield for the bonds.
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I think for us to really get through this, the thing you need to understand about bonds is really this.
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It's pretty simple.
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When there's fewer buyers for bonds, that means the prices fall and the yield rises.
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When there's more buyers for bonds, that means the prices rise and the yields fall.
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So fewer buyers, the yield rises.
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More buyers, the yields fall.
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And right now, the yield is rising.
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And not just in the U.S., but all over Western governments.
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The United Kingdom is up right now.
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Germany is up right now.
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France, Canada.
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And what's striking is they're all up in the last month or so in numbers you don't normally see in the bond market.
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So there is a lot of concern over this.
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You're seeing investors freak out a little bit about what this could mean, and it's getting reflected in macro asset prices.
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So I'm really worried that what we're seeing in the equity market is going to accelerate.
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We haven't seen a breakout of yields to these levels in quite some time.
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And that 5% level for the long bond, that matters, and it has in the past for equities.
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So I'm keeping an eye on what happens in the stock market today, frankly.
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What is pushing rates higher?
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Again, you mentioned the third year at 5.10%.
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That really gets people's attention.
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The 10-year at 455, that breaks out a little bit.
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What's going on there?
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Well, I think we're still trading the conflict in the Middle East.
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We're still worried about the energy complex.
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We're coming off of a series of inflation prints that have demonstrated that we're already starting to see some pass through to core.
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There were a few technical adjustments from the BLS that propped up the core numbers.
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So we weren't particularly surprised or worried, but the market clearly is.
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And we just went through the 10 and 30 year auctions.
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And so they're still in the process of being redistributed.
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And as we have seen in the run up to pretty much every weekend, we're worried about the event risk of those two days in the Middle East.
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because frankly, anything can happen.
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You don't want to hold a risk position over the weekend?
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For some extent.
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Ah, ha, ha, ha, ha.
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Yeah, you're killing me here with that.
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So I want to put this in perspective for you.
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In this next clip, this does have a chart
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that could be worth looking at.
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I'll try to break it down for you audio folks too.
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But I think it does help us kind of understand
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why this is more significant than maybe the last time
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I talked about the bond market.
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Take a look at this chart of current CPI
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against the 1970s inflation cycle and overlay them.
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the correlation is almost 100%.
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So this isn't a vague resemblance.
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It's literally the same shape.
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So he's got a chart here with today's inflation
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and the inflation trajectory of 1970s.
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And it's uncanny.
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It's uncanny how they overlay.
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And what it suggests, like I talked about probably more than a year ago,
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is that we are going to go through cyclical inflation spikes.
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And we're at the beginning of another one right now.
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And that's something the bond market is factoring in. Now, silly enough, right? What do they do in the short term? They dump things like Bitcoin, gold and silver. In the long run, they always pick it up, right? And that's always those assets always benefit real estate, those kinds of hard assets, too. But in the short run, this is always how it goes. And they're looking at this, these charts like this. And they are panicking in the investment market. They are panicking about this.
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April 2026 sits at exactly the same inflection point where the inflation in the 1970s re-accelerated
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before peaking near 14%. The Fed declared victory then too. It said that inflation was over and the
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bond market started to price exactly what happened next. The yield on the 30-year US Treasury just
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cleared 5% for the first time since 2007, which is terrible because that was the year before the
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global financial crisis. Yields on long-dated government bonds are now at their highest levels
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in 18 years. And here's what that actually means in plain English. The market is no longer willing
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to lend the U.S. government money for 30 years at any reasonable price. The buyers are demanding
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tribute and they're getting it. Now, layer this on top. Interest expense on U.S. debt just hit
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$1.27 trillion over the next year, which is more than the entire defense budget. And at the current
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pace, it will surpass Social Security and become the largest line item in our federal budget.
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So think about how crazy this is. The U.S. government will spend more money on paying interest on past borrowing than it spends in the retirement safety net for almost 70 million Americans.
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Roughly one third of the federal debt rolls over in the next 12 months at these new extremely high yields.
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And every additional percentage point costs the Treasury hundreds of billions of dollars.
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All right, this is a key point, and it goes back to the new Fed chair.
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Every basis point change here is just a massive cost in interest payment for the federal government.
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We really got to wrap our heads around how critical this is, because I think it shows you how boxed in Warsh is and how desperate the Treasury is.
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And every additional percentage point costs the Treasury hundreds of billions of dollars.
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And here's what this sets up and why Bitcoin is the best asset positioned for the next decade.
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Every basis point higher that the bond market grinds, the closer the entire federal budget gets to a math problem with no solution.
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So normally to solve this, I mean, well, the typical thing you hear getting thrown around at this point is yield control.
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You know, we need to institute yield control.
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And that's when the Federal Reserve comes out and starts buying treasuries as needed to keep the yields rising.
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They are the buyer of last resort.
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They provide buy pressure for the market.
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Wouldn't that be nice?
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I guess they're sort of the sailor of the market, only sailors doing it willingly and they get forced into it.
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But it's not a good look for the Fed.
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It's not a good look.
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It's not a good look for the state of the United States economy either.
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And since Scotty B has gotten into office, I have been watching and expecting a little plan over time when they talk about bank deregulation.
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We've covered this before on the show a couple of times.
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What they're really talking about is making it possible for the banks to buy more treasuries.
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That way they can change the balance sheet math and they can buy more and essentially get a little stealth QE via the banks.
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Now, this to me seems like the perfect solution because it's pretty hard for the public to get hip to this kind of activity.
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You don't see explicit buying from the Federal Reserve.
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So the rest of the world doesn't really quite pay the same attention.
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but it still has the same inflationary effect and the same damage to the middle class that just
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money printing from the Fed directly would. Now, Luke Roman, he's usually got a pretty negative view
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on things, but I think he's on point with this one because we've been watching this develop.
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And he stopped by Marty Bent's show, and I'll try to put a link in the show notes.
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And this was pretty early into the podcast. And Luke has a theory on how they're going to do
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sneaky yield control to try to get these bond yields back under reasonable rates.
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there's ways you can do it i don't think they would ever want to do explicit yield curve control
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they may not ultimately have a choice but that's sort of the hotel california once you check in
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you can't check out but you know the one way that i think is being discussed and and like wall street
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sort of loves because it's their guy doing it is you know kevin warsh warsh cuts rates
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warsh shrinks the balance sheet uh which means he's selling bond right so the long end will rise
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further. So you're going to get a steepening in the yield curve. And then Worsh changes the
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regulations for banks so banks can buy more treasuries without reducing lending to Main
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Street. And so that is like the grand, that's the macro Fed. These are not the droids you're
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looking for. It's the Jedi mind trick, right? Like, hey, look, we're shrinking the balance sheet.
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Well, not really, because you're the regulator of the banks. You're cutting rates. You're
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shrinking your balance sheet, but then you're just moving it over to their balance sheet and
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taking the regulations off so they can still lend to the federal government by treasuries and lend
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to Main Street at the same time. That's inflationary. That's basically just QE through the banks
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with better marketing. And that's fine. That's probably what needs to happen.
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That's one way you could do it because the banks ultimately don't care about real returns. They
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just care about spread, at least until inflation really gets extreme. At that point, they might
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start to care. But if the government tells the Fed, it tells the US banks that, listen,
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inflation is 4%, right? When it's actually 12, as long as they can make their 200 basis points,
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250 basis points front to back, they don't care. This is what makes them such good customers.
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Most of the market is going to care about the real return rates, real inflation rates,
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but the banks, the federal government, the treasury market,
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they're all just going to look at their number and go, yeah,
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that's the real number. Yeah, of course it is. Yeah. Well,
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that's the number I believe.
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Well, as long as they can make their 200 basis points,
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250 basis points front to back, they don't care. You know,
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now if inflation is frigging 20 or 25,
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not that I think that's what it's going to get.
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That's where you get into questions of, you know, listen, guys, we're,
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we're not going to make a 30 year mortgage at, you know,
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with inflation at 20% because it's gone in frigging five years, six years.
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yeah on a real basis so there's ways you can do it that aren't explicit yield curve control
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yeah i just when i think about this i think they'll come up with a clever way to do it
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excuse me i don't think that's the problem i think they will absolutely come up with a clever way to
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do it my concern comes around to how this impacts everyday people you know i think about this chart
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here of inflation that's matching 1970s. And it eventually gets up to 14, almost 15%. Now,
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that would be by the way they measure it in the 70s, of course. But it's not like you're not eating
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the same foods and consuming fuel and housing. And I just think if we were at somewhere where
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the actual inflation rate, real inflation is around 14% in your energy, in your housing,
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in your food, people that aren't holding a hard asset like Bitcoin are going to get absolutely
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destroyed here. And this is where I start thinking maybe I should start taking all my, you know,
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any kind of income and just convert it immediately to sats, spend a little bit minimal that I have to
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spend and just store every free penny in sats because this is going to be a wild ride. And
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this is just going to be over the next three years or four years or so if this so far, if this lines
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up. And the thing is, I can't go out and buy a bunch of houses. You know, the boomers, you lucky
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SOBs, you got to that before me. But I can buy a Satoshi at a time. And so when the money printing
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comes, that's our best defense. And I just think it's inevitable. It's just absolutely,
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the bond market is telling us that. The debt levels are telling us that. The situation with
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Iran is telling us that. All of these things are telling us that Bitcoin is inevitable and that the
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money printing is inevitable. And so people that hold fiat are just going to get horribly debased
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to pay for the government's irresponsible decisions.
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Now, hopefully this is the last time I have to talk about this for a while,
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but don't mistake the Clarity Act timing on this.
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Don't ignore the timing on this.
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This is about getting the stablecoin and tokenization flywheel for the treasury market up and running,
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and they need to do it in the next couple of years.
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So there is real urgency here.
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That's what the Clarity Act is really about, and it will be good for the treasury market.
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So this week, by the very skin of its teeth, the Clarity Act cleared a major hurdle and finally passed the Senate Banking Committee.
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But it wasn't a clean fight.
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And you could tell Senator Lummis knew it.
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And there is a payoff for Bitcoin in here.
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But for us to get on the other end of this, there was a really dirty fight.
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And so let's go back to the beginning of this week.
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And you could see Lummis, she's ready to go.
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Lummis isn't hummus, but she's kind of grinning and bearing it at the same time.
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Bill designed to create a clear regulatory framework for digital assets could soon be heading to the Senate floor for a full vote in less than two hours The Senate Banking Committee markup process on the Clarity Act said to begin Republican Senator Cynthia Lemus is here and she the author and champion of that bill She sits on the Senate Banking Committee as chair of the Digital Assets Subcommittee
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Good morning to you. Sounds like we're here. It's going to happen.
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That's a fact. We've been working for over nine months with Democrats trying to
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get this bill ready for today. It provides a regulatory framework that currently doesn't exist
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in the digital asset world. It's the Wild West out there. And that allows fraudsters to operate
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without a regulatory framework to respond to their illicit activity. It also allows legitimate players
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to set up shop overseas because they do have regulatory frameworks. This is a way to bring
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this industry into the fold into the United States, make it strong, robust and serve the
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American consumer. Well, not if the damn banks have anything to say about it. And they I warned
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you this is going to happen. They plan to fight like hell. And they did. What is the banking
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industry telling you about all this? Yeah, they don't like it. This is some competition for them.
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They view it as competition that will hurt their ability to sustain the deposits they need to make loans.
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I disagree with that.
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They want changes that actually would go back to the Genius Act we passed last summer and make changes to it.
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I think that they should embrace digital assets.
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It's going to be part of the financial products they can offer in the future.
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We're going to have a digital dollar, a digital Bitcoin, digital alternative coins.
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It's going to be a new financial landscape.
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And I'd like to see the traditional banking industry embrace it instead of fight it.
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Oh, yeah, they're going to get right on that.
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No, no, no, no, they did not.
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In fact, they brought out their fiercest warrior, the person who never tires of fighting for the banks.
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She came out swinging with her best stuff.
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00:16:00,757 --> 00:16:09,797
While we're at war, Iran is openly gearing up to collect crypto fees from oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
215
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How dare they? She'd much rather they take dollars.
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Yes, that was Liz Warren, and she warned that if this passes, everyone is going to go full degen.
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Crypto-related activities that taxpayer-insured banks are permitted to engage in.
218
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Wow. But this one falls far short. Under this amendment, banks would be able to transact in decentralized finance, lend against crypto as collateral, own crypto directly, trade crypto derivatives and more.
219
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What could possibly go wrong? Why are Republicans trying to divert Americans' deposits away from small business lending and mortgage lending?
220
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This just makes no sense.
221
00:16:55,937 --> 00:17:02,217
As somebody who runs a small business, trust me when I say Bitcoin lending is a huge, huge win for small businesses.
222
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If the bill passes, even with this amendment, the next crypto crash could bring down the banks as well and bring down the entire economy.
223
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Let's strike this section instead of trying to tweak it along the edges and pretend that that fixes this problem.
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She's warning you it's going to bring down the entire economy.
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I mean, she's not maybe totally wrong.
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You know, I could see the banks getting a little degenerate with the crypto and whatnots, although they are supposed to follow the rules of the road that clarity provides.
227
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Right. But I think she's definitely a little hyperventilating here because she then once again says that if this passes, the economy is going to blow up.
228
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And what's so great is Tim Scott's face in this clip.
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It's another reason maybe watch the video version or go look this up.
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He is so done with Liz.
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It pushes more of the market into crypto and removes protections for investors and removes recourse for victims.
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That is the wrong direction to go in.
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All right.
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When this blows up the economy, I hope everybody remembers.
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Oh, you better remember.
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Liz tried to warn you guys.
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00:18:06,917 --> 00:18:08,277
She tried to warn you.
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You know, I want to play a response to Liz from Senator Lummis.
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And it's not bad.
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You know, she's got like a binder there and she's like paging through.
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Like she's got a response for everything.
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00:18:18,997 --> 00:18:19,777
She's a little upset.
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She's kind of shaking a little bit.
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She's a little PO'd, I think.
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00:18:23,177 --> 00:18:24,737
And it is an interesting response.
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00:18:24,977 --> 00:18:34,097
But what is more interesting and what I think we should listen for is what it reveals about all the levels of surveillance that are baked into this Clarity Act.
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Like this is – I had no idea, right?
248
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Because everybody's been talking about clear rules for the road and what's a security and what's a commodity and this is going to be great.
249
00:18:44,677 --> 00:18:47,097
Tokenizations come up and stable coins, of course.
250
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but the surveillance and security aspects don't get mentioned as much.
251
00:18:51,377 --> 00:18:54,917
But in order to get a response back to Warren,
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Lummis just kind of rattles through a whole bunch of these.
253
00:18:57,697 --> 00:18:59,257
So listen to all this.
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Regard to anti-money laundering and illicit finance.
255
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It creates risk-based exam standards.
256
00:19:06,397 --> 00:19:11,637
It expands Treasury's special measure authority to act swiftly against foreign money laundering.
257
00:19:11,897 --> 00:19:14,597
It creates studies on mixers and tumblers.
258
00:19:14,597 --> 00:19:22,617
It requires annual treasury reports on foreign jurisdictions compliance with USAML CFD standards.
259
00:19:22,937 --> 00:19:24,517
Who the hell is going to want to use stablecoins?
260
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It requires recurring treasury reports on offshore stablecoins.
261
00:19:30,757 --> 00:19:40,937
It requires mandatory educational materials on digital asset risks, insider resale restrictions to prevent pump and dump schemes.
262
00:19:40,937 --> 00:19:43,977
It has timely disclosure requirements.
263
00:19:44,457 --> 00:19:47,017
Broker deal insolvency disclosures.
264
00:19:47,617 --> 00:19:51,157
A federal regulatory floor for crypto kiosks.
265
00:19:51,517 --> 00:19:52,637
This is very important.
266
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This has been a problem in my state.
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00:19:55,437 --> 00:19:59,957
Tokenized securities remain securities under SEC jurisdiction.
268
00:20:00,757 --> 00:20:04,317
FTC authority over unfair or deceptive practices.
269
00:20:04,317 --> 00:20:10,377
$30 million per year through 2031 for FinCEN.
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00:20:10,937 --> 00:20:17,897
With regard to fraud and AML provisions, temporary holds for suspicious activities.
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Yikes.
272
00:20:18,437 --> 00:20:23,157
And preventing those who place the holds from having private causes of action.
273
00:20:23,437 --> 00:20:23,697
Okay.
274
00:20:24,417 --> 00:20:29,537
It applies BSA regulation to digital asset brokers, dealers, and exchanges.
275
00:20:29,877 --> 00:20:32,397
This list goes on and on.
276
00:20:32,517 --> 00:20:33,097
I bet it does.
277
00:20:33,117 --> 00:20:36,517
This is a pro-law enforcement bill.
278
00:20:36,597 --> 00:20:37,677
Sure seems like it is.
279
00:20:38,237 --> 00:20:38,517
Wow.
280
00:20:38,517 --> 00:20:39,377
Oh, boy.
281
00:20:39,377 --> 00:20:42,757
So after that rowdy back and forth, there was more, but I'll spare you.
282
00:20:42,997 --> 00:20:44,817
There was the traditional vote.
283
00:20:44,897 --> 00:20:45,337
It's so funny.
284
00:20:45,397 --> 00:20:47,297
These things are so anticlimactic.
285
00:20:47,877 --> 00:20:50,777
They held the vote, 15 in favor and nine opposed.
286
00:20:51,057 --> 00:20:52,237
The clerk will call the roll.
287
00:20:52,277 --> 00:20:52,857
Mr. President.
288
00:20:53,077 --> 00:20:54,097
The clerk will call the roll.
289
00:20:54,097 --> 00:20:54,357
The chairman.
290
00:20:55,017 --> 00:20:55,257
Aye.
291
00:20:55,837 --> 00:20:57,877
So they go around, do all the voting.
292
00:20:58,577 --> 00:21:00,877
The vote is 15 in favor and nine opposed.
293
00:21:01,397 --> 00:21:02,097
The ayes have it.
294
00:21:02,237 --> 00:21:06,357
H.R. 3633 is hereby ordered reported as amended to the full Senate.
295
00:21:06,357 --> 00:21:13,217
I ask unanimous consent that the staff be allowed to make technical and conforming changes and that the cordon rule be waived.
296
00:21:13,377 --> 00:21:13,917
Any objection?
297
00:21:14,457 --> 00:21:15,137
Hearing no objection.
298
00:21:15,257 --> 00:21:15,757
So ordered.
299
00:21:16,137 --> 00:21:17,377
Is there any member who?
300
00:21:17,457 --> 00:21:17,657
All right.
301
00:21:17,717 --> 00:21:18,437
So it passes.
302
00:21:18,937 --> 00:21:20,617
Now, imagine this job.
303
00:21:21,157 --> 00:21:24,257
You fight for more than nine months to get this thing out there.
304
00:21:24,377 --> 00:21:26,977
It's really also about creating a treasury flywheel.
305
00:21:27,077 --> 00:21:30,377
So it's sort of important to survival, to the survival of the economy.
306
00:21:30,377 --> 00:21:31,777
So the stakes are pretty high.
307
00:21:31,777 --> 00:21:38,077
And plus for Lummis, it's sort of the, well, it's become her centerpiece legislation, I guess.
308
00:21:38,637 --> 00:21:40,897
You would hope it was going to be a Bitcoin Reserve Act, but otherwise.
309
00:21:41,897 --> 00:21:45,837
But it's after all of that, not time to actually celebrate.
310
00:21:46,197 --> 00:21:49,497
There's no champagne popping, popping, popping happening yet.
311
00:21:51,077 --> 00:21:54,177
No popping happening because these things take time.
312
00:21:54,177 --> 00:21:58,457
I mean, best case scenario, the bill goes to the floor in June.
313
00:21:59,177 --> 00:22:00,137
Probably not going to happen.
314
00:22:00,137 --> 00:22:14,277
And then, you know, it's midterms. So that's going to delay things. And even if it does pass, another best case scenario is 18 months to actually create all the rules and to have things kick in again, depending on who wins the midterms. That could take a lot longer.
315
00:22:14,697 --> 00:22:20,677
Senator Cynthia Lummis is co-sponsoring the bill and she agrees. Nobody is popping the champagne quite yet.
316
00:22:20,757 --> 00:22:22,317
Oh, there you go. That's how you say it.
317
00:22:22,317 --> 00:22:27,037
There's no time for a victory lap because there's still a lot of work to do.
318
00:22:27,037 --> 00:22:31,437
It's going to take at least three weeks and maybe more.
319
00:22:32,057 --> 00:22:35,557
I would love to have this bill on the floor in June.
320
00:22:35,977 --> 00:22:38,177
That's probably pretty optimistic.
321
00:22:38,977 --> 00:22:42,397
And bottom line here, we're weeks away from a real Senate vote.
322
00:22:42,477 --> 00:22:47,017
And even if it does pass, these rules take 18 months to actually kick in.
323
00:22:47,557 --> 00:22:49,377
Now, how does this affect Bitcoin?
324
00:22:49,377 --> 00:22:52,357
because there's not much in the actual legislation that affects Bitcoin.
325
00:22:52,857 --> 00:22:54,337
I have a theory for that.
326
00:22:54,497 --> 00:22:58,637
I do think it's positive because it creates a dividing line
327
00:22:58,637 --> 00:23:03,017
of legitimate, quote unquote, digital assets and clown crypto.
328
00:23:03,457 --> 00:23:06,057
And I think there's probably more things on the legitimate side
329
00:23:06,057 --> 00:23:07,977
than I would like as a Bitcoiner.
330
00:23:08,117 --> 00:23:09,537
I would have just preferred Bitcoin.
331
00:23:09,897 --> 00:23:12,117
And anything that kind of got an ETF
332
00:23:12,117 --> 00:23:14,377
is essentially going to be on that line of legitimate.
333
00:23:14,497 --> 00:23:17,297
There'll be some more things that make that line across that line eventually.
334
00:23:17,297 --> 00:23:27,197
But it does separate out all the other stuff, the NFT stuff, the meme coins, all of the silly token stuff, the doges, all that stuff.
335
00:23:27,277 --> 00:23:28,417
Well, maybe not doge, actually.
336
00:23:28,597 --> 00:23:29,217
I'm not totally sure.
337
00:23:29,577 --> 00:23:32,757
All that stuff is now in a different bucket.
338
00:23:33,137 --> 00:23:35,737
That's crypto versus digital assets.
339
00:23:36,237 --> 00:23:42,497
That shift is going to be more important than I think we can appreciate as people that have already understood the difference.
340
00:23:42,497 --> 00:23:46,877
Well, I know that you're an investor in Bitcoin, but you also have said that the industry is dying.
341
00:23:47,297 --> 00:23:54,437
Well, I think that the four areas of crypto that are going to end up surviving are Bitcoin, stable coins, equity infrastructure and tokenization.
342
00:23:54,957 --> 00:24:03,357
But most of the rest of the industry is just kind of becoming a ridiculous clown show, right, is they are basically running around and they're trying to be mercenaries.
343
00:24:03,477 --> 00:24:07,037
Everyone is trying to figure out how do I create some coin and hope it goes up in value.
344
00:24:07,277 --> 00:24:14,477
But ultimately, I think that sophisticated investors are trying to figure out where can I put my capital and have it resiliently hold value or increase in value.
345
00:24:14,477 --> 00:24:15,597
I think those four areas.
346
00:24:17,297 --> 00:24:26,757
All right. Now I do owe you an update on BIP-110. I'm kind of just in following mode.
347
00:24:26,757 --> 00:24:34,717
This is probably one of the few topics on the show that I have an emotional reaction to because I just take seizing other people's property very seriously.
348
00:24:34,917 --> 00:24:37,997
But I did find an update for you on BIP-110.
349
00:24:38,317 --> 00:24:46,977
The biggest thing I think you need to know about is that if you're using Bitcoin Noughts, the most recent version that shipped earlier this month, now enables BIP-110.
350
00:24:47,297 --> 00:24:53,957
the soft fork feature out of the box. BIP-110 is still moving forward as a temporary one-year
351
00:24:53,957 --> 00:25:02,017
soft fork. Bitcoin Knots is the main vehicle here. The latest release from this month now includes
352
00:25:02,017 --> 00:25:11,377
the RDTS slash BIP-110 code by default with an opt-out build available. Some node runners and
353
00:25:11,377 --> 00:25:18,577
smaller pools like Ocean are already signaling and running the patched version. But adoption is
354
00:25:18,577 --> 00:25:25,817
still in the low single digits, and the debate is fierce. Supporters call it a necessary cleanup.
355
00:25:26,517 --> 00:25:32,897
Critics warn it could create chain-split risk or cross the line into overreach.
356
00:25:33,677 --> 00:25:35,877
The big thing to understand is this.
357
00:25:36,457 --> 00:25:39,577
The mechanics are UASF style.
358
00:25:40,217 --> 00:25:42,837
That means the community is driving this one.
359
00:25:43,557 --> 00:25:49,397
So over the next year, the whole question of a soft fork comes down to adoption levels.
360
00:25:49,897 --> 00:25:54,077
And sometimes the best course of action is to do nothing.
361
00:25:55,657 --> 00:25:58,997
So I have a question I'd like you to boost in the answer for.
362
00:25:59,177 --> 00:26:00,597
Are you still running Bitcoin?
363
00:26:01,037 --> 00:26:01,477
Nots.
364
00:26:01,477 --> 00:26:06,657
Why or why not? And do you plan to deploy the most recent version with BIP-110 activated?
365
00:26:07,217 --> 00:26:10,337
Boost into the show and let me know. I'd like to take the audience's temperature on this.
366
00:26:10,397 --> 00:26:14,497
You know kind of where I'm at with BIP-110 and I've gone back to Bitcoin Core.
367
00:26:14,697 --> 00:26:18,377
But I'm curious to know if any of you are sticking with nots and why or why not.
368
00:26:18,557 --> 00:26:19,497
Boost in. Let me know.
369
00:26:31,477 --> 00:26:41,057
Well, you can support the show just by doing what you do.
370
00:26:41,217 --> 00:26:44,197
If you want to buy some sats on River, use my link in the show notes.
371
00:26:44,197 --> 00:26:48,897
One of the best ways to stack sats in the U.S., now pay bills and earn sats on your cash.
372
00:26:49,257 --> 00:26:52,197
If you're all about self-custody, well, check out the Bitcoin will.
373
00:26:52,517 --> 00:26:54,217
It's an automatic self-custody platform.
374
00:26:54,457 --> 00:26:55,237
They don't have a wallet.
375
00:26:55,397 --> 00:26:56,937
You host the wallet, and I love that.
376
00:26:57,297 --> 00:27:01,097
If you want to spend some sats, you can go from sats to gift card over the Lightning Network
377
00:27:01,097 --> 00:27:02,977
in just seconds with the Bitcoin company.
378
00:27:03,377 --> 00:27:04,137
Hundreds of gift cards.
379
00:27:04,277 --> 00:27:05,457
All they deal with is Bitcoin.
380
00:27:05,837 --> 00:27:06,857
You don't even have to create an account.
381
00:27:07,437 --> 00:27:08,517
Then there's the Fold Card.
382
00:27:08,877 --> 00:27:10,837
This lets you stack sats while you pay your bills.
383
00:27:10,917 --> 00:27:12,317
They just introduce the new credit card
384
00:27:12,317 --> 00:27:13,857
that gives you sats back on your purchases.
385
00:27:14,357 --> 00:27:16,357
You got a whole suite of services over at Fold Card.
386
00:27:16,457 --> 00:27:17,057
Link in the notes.
387
00:27:17,537 --> 00:27:19,557
And if you want to get access to your Bitcoin liquidity
388
00:27:19,557 --> 00:27:20,437
without selling it,
389
00:27:20,837 --> 00:27:22,297
a Bitcoin-backed loan from salt lending
390
00:27:22,297 --> 00:27:23,177
could be the way to go.
391
00:27:23,257 --> 00:27:24,077
They have some nice features,
392
00:27:24,137 --> 00:27:26,137
including some liquidation protection,
393
00:27:26,457 --> 00:27:28,617
and they let you do lower minimums
394
00:27:28,617 --> 00:27:29,897
than some of the other folks out there.
395
00:27:29,897 --> 00:27:35,093
links to all of those in the show notes you can just support the show by doing what you do
396
00:27:56,454 --> 00:28:00,333
Ask not what your podcast can boost for you,
397
00:28:00,333 --> 00:28:03,253
but what you can boost for your podcast.
398
00:28:03,853 --> 00:28:07,073
And we do have some boosts to support this week's episode
399
00:28:07,073 --> 00:28:08,293
of This Week in Bitcoin.
400
00:28:08,914 --> 00:28:11,653
J-Cube 3 comes in as our baller booster
401
00:28:11,653 --> 00:28:14,113
with 61,200 sats.
402
00:28:14,153 --> 00:28:15,533
Hey, rich lobster!
403
00:28:18,414 --> 00:28:19,733
Thank you, J-Cube.
404
00:28:20,153 --> 00:28:22,393
I think most of the issue with the latest sailor maneuver
405
00:28:22,393 --> 00:28:24,533
is that too many folks just let the idea of him
406
00:28:24,533 --> 00:28:26,053
being Bitcoin Jesus sink in.
407
00:28:26,253 --> 00:28:26,733
He's not.
408
00:28:27,214 --> 00:28:28,733
He's still accomplishing great things.
409
00:28:28,733 --> 00:28:29,993
Sorry for being a boo slacker.
410
00:28:29,993 --> 00:28:31,214
It's nice to hear from you, J-Cube.
411
00:28:31,773 --> 00:28:34,873
You know, the more I think about it, I want him to sell some of that Bitcoin.
412
00:28:35,733 --> 00:28:41,914
It does help, as he puts it, inoculate from the Ponzi scheme accusations.
413
00:28:42,333 --> 00:28:46,793
But also, he's got like 4% of the entire Bitcoin stack now.
414
00:28:47,593 --> 00:28:49,053
Let's let him off-gas some of that.
415
00:28:49,393 --> 00:28:49,573
You know?
416
00:28:49,993 --> 00:28:50,633
We can pick it up.
417
00:28:50,733 --> 00:28:52,013
Maybe at some decent prices, too.
418
00:28:52,293 --> 00:28:54,553
He got enough from us for cheap prices.
419
00:28:54,613 --> 00:28:55,533
Maybe we can buy it back.
420
00:28:56,553 --> 00:28:57,393
What do you think of that?
421
00:28:58,434 --> 00:28:59,773
Thank you for being our baller, J-Cube.
422
00:28:59,773 --> 00:29:00,553
Appreciate you.
423
00:29:01,093 --> 00:29:04,513
Odark Alpha comes in with 53,101 sats.
424
00:29:04,674 --> 00:29:07,174
I hoard that which your kind covet.
425
00:29:07,214 --> 00:29:08,333
Also a fantastic boost.
426
00:29:08,393 --> 00:29:08,694
Hi, Chris.
427
00:29:08,733 --> 00:29:10,473
I was wondering what your thoughts are on Monero.
428
00:29:10,633 --> 00:29:16,093
I often think of Bitcoin as a cryptocurrency 1.0 and Monero as the 2.0 due to its privacy feature.
429
00:29:16,533 --> 00:29:19,233
I don't understand why Monero hasn't overtaken Bitcoin in adoption.
430
00:29:19,714 --> 00:29:22,914
Is it the fact that Bitcoin is a fixed supply or is there some other reason I am missing?
431
00:29:23,333 --> 00:29:24,873
I would like to be able to use Bitcoin more.
432
00:29:25,013 --> 00:29:28,013
Is there a Layer 2 solution to make transactions just as private as Monero?
433
00:29:28,714 --> 00:29:29,753
Well, so you touched on it there.
434
00:29:29,773 --> 00:29:36,174
The fixed supply is not just a small thing, and it is, by the nature of Monero, hard to kind of prove the entire overall supply.
435
00:29:36,293 --> 00:29:44,133
There's also been some drama in Monero's history, and these things add up to how people consider the hardness of an asset.
436
00:29:44,934 --> 00:29:49,853
And Bitcoin is kind of the apex predator when it comes to what makes hard money.
437
00:29:50,293 --> 00:29:55,694
And so if you want to understand why people are interested in Bitcoin, go look up the five attributes.
438
00:29:55,694 --> 00:30:03,853
There's more, but go look up the five attributes of hard money and see how Bitcoin just perfectly, perfectly is engineered to match those.
439
00:30:04,293 --> 00:30:06,454
And that's why people like Bitcoin over things like Monero.
440
00:30:06,733 --> 00:30:10,053
The reality is, is it's also easy to swap from Bitcoin to Monero.
441
00:30:10,233 --> 00:30:12,174
And then you do have some layer two solutions.
442
00:30:12,293 --> 00:30:21,533
You can combine things like Lightning, Liquid, ARK and other layer two solutions that really do provide a great level of privacy and security.
443
00:30:22,434 --> 00:30:30,073
So from where I sit, it's, you know, having been in this now for 14, 15 years, it's not really been something that's been ever really a pressing need for mine.
444
00:30:30,194 --> 00:30:32,914
I've always been able to solve those problems with Bitcoin.
445
00:30:33,533 --> 00:30:34,273
It's a good question, though.
446
00:30:34,293 --> 00:30:36,454
Let me know how it goes for you, ODARC.
447
00:30:36,934 --> 00:30:40,573
And do look up the attributes of hard money and see how it compares to the old Bitcoin.
448
00:30:41,073 --> 00:30:41,714
Thanks for the boost.
449
00:30:42,273 --> 00:30:44,853
OB's here with 21,420 sats.
450
00:30:44,853 --> 00:30:52,194
Saylor can go along to get along.
451
00:30:52,333 --> 00:30:56,753
You'll remember he stopped talking about no second best after the other crypto was no longer a security.
452
00:30:57,033 --> 00:30:59,973
Before then, he essentially, yeah, he said everything else was illegal.
453
00:31:00,393 --> 00:31:01,954
If he can't sell Bitcoin, it's encumbered.
454
00:31:02,033 --> 00:31:06,493
The SEC needs it to be a liquid asset to ensure consumer protection.
455
00:31:07,013 --> 00:31:08,273
I think that's an interesting insight.
456
00:31:08,714 --> 00:31:10,934
I have noticed that he has definitely changed his tune on other crypto.
457
00:31:10,934 --> 00:31:15,653
You know, now he looks at other cryptos, like the DeFi stuff, as customers, I think.
458
00:31:16,333 --> 00:31:17,293
I think that's a big part of it.
459
00:31:18,253 --> 00:31:18,914
Thanks for the insight.
460
00:31:19,214 --> 00:31:19,793
Appreciate that, Obi.
461
00:31:19,833 --> 00:31:20,473
Nice to hear from you.
462
00:31:21,153 --> 00:31:24,694
Speaking of, nice to hear from Gene Beans here with 5,781 sats.
463
00:31:24,714 --> 00:31:25,593
I like you.
464
00:31:25,973 --> 00:31:27,013
You're a hot ticket.
465
00:31:27,233 --> 00:31:31,414
That interview with Adam was a really good clip, but the initial clip was super good and worth the longer listen.
466
00:31:31,833 --> 00:31:34,653
I'd like to listen with my seven-year-old kiddo, but I want to keep the profanity down.
467
00:31:34,753 --> 00:31:35,393
Yeah, I know.
468
00:31:35,493 --> 00:31:35,793
I know.
469
00:31:35,853 --> 00:31:36,194
I hear you.
470
00:31:36,293 --> 00:31:36,613
I know.
471
00:31:36,714 --> 00:31:37,153
I hear you.
472
00:31:37,194 --> 00:31:37,573
I hear you.
473
00:31:37,573 --> 00:31:41,053
I don't often play clips with profanity.
474
00:31:41,174 --> 00:31:42,174
Sometimes there'll be a clip
475
00:31:42,174 --> 00:31:43,613
and sometimes there'll be a song.
476
00:31:43,733 --> 00:31:45,293
It's pretty rare, so I'll try to warn you.
477
00:31:45,633 --> 00:31:47,293
Any particular suggestion on how to go about
478
00:31:47,293 --> 00:31:49,454
graphing sats or dollars over multiple years?
479
00:31:49,633 --> 00:31:51,233
Oh, shoot, I wish I could remember.
480
00:31:51,293 --> 00:31:52,993
There's a couple of good self-hosted applications
481
00:31:52,993 --> 00:31:53,653
that do that.
482
00:31:54,373 --> 00:31:55,194
This is one of the features, too,
483
00:31:55,233 --> 00:31:56,533
the centralized exchanges offer.
484
00:31:56,713 --> 00:31:58,914
If anybody can remember some of the self-hosted apps
485
00:31:58,914 --> 00:32:00,973
you use to track your stack over time,
486
00:32:01,353 --> 00:32:02,273
please boost the name in,
487
00:32:02,313 --> 00:32:03,113
because I am blanking on it,
488
00:32:03,113 --> 00:32:03,893
and I should give it a go.
489
00:32:04,454 --> 00:32:05,133
Give it a little review.
490
00:32:05,573 --> 00:32:06,153
Thank you, Gene Bean.
491
00:32:06,153 --> 00:32:06,934
Nice to hear from you.
492
00:32:06,934 --> 00:32:09,194
You make me want to be a better man.
493
00:32:09,893 --> 00:32:16,733
User 42243 whatever is boosting in with 2,267 sats.
494
00:32:17,233 --> 00:32:18,513
That's not possible.
495
00:32:18,653 --> 00:32:19,674
Nothing can do that.
496
00:32:19,993 --> 00:32:21,533
Is this how I get a mention on the show, Chris?
497
00:32:21,593 --> 00:32:22,434
Not sure how the boosts work.
498
00:32:22,513 --> 00:32:22,893
Love the show.
499
00:32:22,993 --> 00:32:28,414
Yes, user 42453633, but you need to go into Fountain and set your name in your profile.
500
00:32:28,954 --> 00:32:30,653
So that way I can give you a proper shout out.
501
00:32:30,773 --> 00:32:31,713
But you figured it out.
502
00:32:31,993 --> 00:32:33,553
That's the hardest part right there.
503
00:32:33,873 --> 00:32:34,934
Thank you very much.
504
00:32:34,934 --> 00:32:37,853
Thank you for helping us help you help us all.
505
00:32:38,273 --> 00:32:41,633
Sats over bits comes in with 3,987 sats.
506
00:32:41,753 --> 00:32:42,434
Oh, my God.
507
00:32:42,493 --> 00:32:43,934
This drawer is filled with fruit loops.
508
00:32:44,073 --> 00:32:49,194
A week ago, a popular Bitcoin YouTuber asked his audience on Noster what a good Bitcoin podcast listened to was.
509
00:32:49,333 --> 00:32:50,753
Almost one in four people answered, twib.
510
00:32:51,133 --> 00:32:59,493
I can't imagine how busy you are, but I feel like if you were a bit more active on Noster, many more people would align with the show and the value mission and would become consistent listeners and probably boosters.
511
00:32:59,674 --> 00:33:00,133
Just a thought.
512
00:33:00,573 --> 00:33:01,434
Amazing show as always.
513
00:33:01,954 --> 00:33:02,153
Yeah.
514
00:33:02,353 --> 00:33:03,573
Just pump the brakes right there.
515
00:33:03,573 --> 00:33:04,333
You're absolutely right.
516
00:33:04,333 --> 00:33:06,914
I am horrible with social media.
517
00:33:07,553 --> 00:33:09,113
I just don't have the time or energy.
518
00:33:09,233 --> 00:33:09,653
I try.
519
00:33:09,813 --> 00:33:16,733
Noster is the one I would want the most since it's the one I could have the most ownership over and has at least one company influence and all that.
520
00:33:17,454 --> 00:33:18,093
So I try.
521
00:33:18,233 --> 00:33:19,174
I go through spurts.
522
00:33:19,653 --> 00:33:20,414
I just find it.
523
00:33:20,593 --> 00:33:21,454
There's so much to do.
524
00:33:22,194 --> 00:33:32,733
I need a Twib crew on Noster and X helping spread the word because I see so many people on X and Noster opining about there's no good Bitcoin news podcast.
525
00:33:32,733 --> 00:33:34,313
and I'm like, I'm right here.
526
00:33:34,493 --> 00:33:35,033
I'm right here.
527
00:33:35,233 --> 00:33:36,174
I just don't engage.
528
00:33:36,613 --> 00:33:37,133
But you're right.
529
00:33:37,213 --> 00:33:37,713
You caught me.
530
00:33:37,833 --> 00:33:39,293
You got me, Sats.
531
00:33:39,393 --> 00:33:42,033
I should be better about it.
532
00:33:42,194 --> 00:33:44,053
You make me want to be a better man.
533
00:33:44,133 --> 00:33:44,333
You do.
534
00:33:44,473 --> 00:33:44,793
You do.
535
00:33:45,073 --> 00:33:45,513
Thank you, though.
536
00:33:45,973 --> 00:33:47,493
And if anybody wants to help spread the word
537
00:33:47,493 --> 00:33:49,093
and join the TWIB army, please let me know.
538
00:33:49,914 --> 00:33:51,454
Tomatoes here with 5,000 Sats.
539
00:33:51,473 --> 00:33:52,873
Coming in hot with the boost.
540
00:33:53,313 --> 00:33:54,153
And Tomatoes says,
541
00:33:54,153 --> 00:33:55,893
I bet Saylor is selling Bitcoin
542
00:33:55,893 --> 00:33:58,373
because of whatever galaxy brain thing I don't understand
543
00:33:58,373 --> 00:34:00,573
that separates what he's doing from a Ponzi scheme.
544
00:34:00,573 --> 00:34:03,073
If it's not that, maybe it's simple.
545
00:34:03,633 --> 00:34:06,513
Buy low, sell high, and he's betting against hot Bitcoin summer.
546
00:34:07,353 --> 00:34:17,253
I think it's whatever keeps that, whatever they got to do to stay legitimate in the market's eyes and keep that yield going that they have with their strike product.
547
00:34:17,374 --> 00:34:19,193
That's really, it's all about feeding that, right?
548
00:34:19,533 --> 00:34:24,093
Maybe he's betting on a cold Bitcoin summer fall.
549
00:34:24,334 --> 00:34:30,374
You guys, you're supposed to help me come up with a name for a Bitcoin summer that sucks because Bitcoin fall summer doesn't make any sense.
550
00:34:30,573 --> 00:34:31,933
And Bitcoin winter summer's dumb.
551
00:34:32,553 --> 00:34:33,553
We've got to have a better name than that.
552
00:34:34,233 --> 00:34:34,753
Gosh darn it.
553
00:34:34,794 --> 00:34:35,133
Thanks, Tomato.
554
00:34:35,794 --> 00:34:37,894
MDS comes in with 2,100 sats.
555
00:34:38,013 --> 00:34:39,533
B-O-O-S-T.
556
00:34:39,653 --> 00:34:40,874
No message, just value.
557
00:34:40,993 --> 00:34:41,354
Thank you, sir.
558
00:34:41,453 --> 00:34:42,953
Ace Accomand's here with a row of ducks.
559
00:34:43,013 --> 00:34:44,334
2,222 sats.
560
00:34:45,453 --> 00:34:48,334
Well, an obvious answer is Coinbase is going to get acquired by J.P. Morgan.
561
00:34:49,433 --> 00:34:51,153
Coinbase is totally going to get acquired one day, aren't they?
562
00:34:51,553 --> 00:34:51,773
Ha.
563
00:34:53,773 --> 00:34:54,933
Galaxy brain on you there.
564
00:34:55,593 --> 00:34:56,794
Had not thought about that.
565
00:34:57,553 --> 00:34:58,733
Philip is back with 3,000.
566
00:34:58,733 --> 00:34:59,394
Thank you for the boost.
567
00:34:59,394 --> 00:35:00,874
3,888 sats.
568
00:35:04,773 --> 00:35:06,013
Thanks for the safe editing clip.
569
00:35:06,073 --> 00:35:09,414
Really handy to send to friends and family who are teetering about getting more open.
570
00:35:09,613 --> 00:35:12,073
They are less likely to shut me down and more likely to ask questions.
571
00:35:12,593 --> 00:35:15,973
There are more and more ordinary, hardworking people in Ireland really feeling the pinch.
572
00:35:16,113 --> 00:35:18,533
Day to day, it's becoming harder to ignore the signals in the noise.
573
00:35:18,973 --> 00:35:21,193
The K-curve is very, very real here.
574
00:35:21,693 --> 00:35:25,794
Chris, can you please big up the Irish Bitcoin conference happening this weekend,
575
00:35:26,173 --> 00:35:28,193
the 23rd to the 24th, May in Dublin?
576
00:35:28,193 --> 00:35:33,153
Now, it got cut off, Philippa, but I'll repeat the bits that did come in here.
577
00:35:33,233 --> 00:35:40,013
It's the Irish Bitcoin Conference, and it's happening this weekend, May 23rd and the 24th in Dublin.
578
00:35:40,493 --> 00:35:42,073
So that's the details that made it through.
579
00:35:42,414 --> 00:35:43,673
I love it when people plug those.
580
00:35:43,834 --> 00:35:47,473
So, Philippa, if you have a report you want to give on how it went, please do follow up.
581
00:35:48,033 --> 00:35:50,354
And you're always welcome to stick that at the beginning of the message.
582
00:35:50,433 --> 00:35:52,573
So make sure you get it in there and then the rest or something like that.
583
00:35:53,113 --> 00:35:54,013
Always try to make it in there.
584
00:35:54,013 --> 00:36:00,593
So again, it is the Bitcoin conference happening in Dublin, and it is the 23rd and 24th of May, 2026.
585
00:36:00,773 --> 00:36:01,573
Thank you, Philippa.
586
00:36:01,653 --> 00:36:02,973
It's nice to hear from you.
587
00:36:03,493 --> 00:36:05,193
We have KiwiBitcoinGuide.
588
00:36:05,273 --> 00:36:09,213
He's back, and he brought in 4,567 sats.
589
00:36:09,354 --> 00:36:11,553
Boy, they are doing a lot with mayo these days.
590
00:36:11,713 --> 00:36:16,013
Five years ago, Michael Saylor created a 20-part podcast series with Robert Breedlove.
591
00:36:16,733 --> 00:36:17,374
Oh, man.
592
00:36:17,633 --> 00:36:18,693
Yeah, with the What is Money?
593
00:36:19,513 --> 00:36:21,273
I never was able to watch the entire thing.
594
00:36:21,633 --> 00:36:23,854
But in there, he talked about history and first principles.
595
00:36:24,013 --> 00:36:27,753
I listened to it twice and it helped me deepen my understanding of Bitcoin and build conviction.
596
00:36:28,173 --> 00:36:29,173
I shared it with my friends.
597
00:36:29,593 --> 00:36:30,673
Now I listen to him talk.
598
00:36:30,814 --> 00:36:32,354
I don't even understand what the words mean.
599
00:36:32,753 --> 00:36:34,834
I don't share any of his talks with Bitcoin newbies anymore.
600
00:36:35,073 --> 00:36:36,733
He's a different guy focusing on different things.
601
00:36:36,914 --> 00:36:37,414
Good luck to him.
602
00:36:38,013 --> 00:36:39,874
I'm just glad I came across the old sailor.
603
00:36:40,473 --> 00:36:41,473
Yeah, isn't that interesting?
604
00:36:41,593 --> 00:36:43,113
I hadn't made that connection, but you're right.
605
00:36:44,193 --> 00:36:49,493
When we first started taking boosts on the show, I think Brent and Wes probably caught some sailor talks, or at least Brent did.
606
00:36:49,653 --> 00:36:50,733
And, you know, that was helpful.
607
00:36:51,294 --> 00:36:51,733
You're right now.
608
00:36:51,794 --> 00:36:52,394
You wouldn't at all.
609
00:36:52,713 --> 00:36:53,653
It's a great point.
610
00:36:53,653 --> 00:36:54,593
It's okay, right?
611
00:36:55,093 --> 00:36:56,073
We move on, right?
612
00:36:56,834 --> 00:36:57,794
Yeah, it's fine.
613
00:36:58,053 --> 00:37:01,633
And he is still plugging away and doing things for Bitcoin, too, I guess.
614
00:37:01,914 --> 00:37:03,713
I don't mean to seem so negative about it, right?
615
00:37:04,693 --> 00:37:05,153
All right.
616
00:37:05,193 --> 00:37:05,834
Thank you for the boost.
617
00:37:06,093 --> 00:37:07,233
Appreciate it very much, Kiwi.
618
00:37:07,314 --> 00:37:08,434
Good to hear from you.
619
00:37:08,953 --> 00:37:11,953
Your inner child comes in with 2,100 12 sats.
620
00:37:12,093 --> 00:37:13,834
Put some macaroni and cheese on there, too.
621
00:37:14,033 --> 00:37:18,093
Your inner child back again, though River is holding my Bitcoin for up to five days.
622
00:37:18,733 --> 00:37:20,993
He's got a couple emojis in there and stuff, so he's feeling it.
623
00:37:20,993 --> 00:37:26,993
You know, I would bet you, if anything, that's River waiting for the ACH transfers to clear.
624
00:37:27,693 --> 00:37:31,713
They are still, can only move as fast as the banking system can move as fast for some of that stuff.
625
00:37:32,073 --> 00:37:38,993
I would love a holy hand grenade clip for the past and future 1-2-5-3-3 boosts.
626
00:37:39,613 --> 00:37:40,013
All right.
627
00:37:40,153 --> 00:37:45,414
So you want, okay, let me tell you, let me ask you, does this match what you're looking for?
628
00:37:45,593 --> 00:37:47,133
Bring up the holy hand grenade.
629
00:37:47,493 --> 00:37:48,394
Ah, the holy hand grenade.
630
00:37:48,394 --> 00:37:52,354
so that would be for 1, 2, 5, 3, 3, boosts.
631
00:37:52,573 --> 00:37:53,733
Boy, it's going to be hard to remember,
632
00:37:53,953 --> 00:37:54,673
but I'll try to remember.
633
00:37:54,874 --> 00:37:56,314
It's got to be 1, 25, 33.
634
00:37:56,553 --> 00:37:57,414
Sats per dollar is fine,
635
00:37:57,473 --> 00:37:59,673
but 97% of the dollar has been inflated away
636
00:37:59,673 --> 00:38:00,414
since its creation.
637
00:38:01,013 --> 00:38:02,653
Other people like to compare Bitcoin to gold,
638
00:38:02,653 --> 00:38:05,894
but the smallest unit of gold is an atom.
639
00:38:06,414 --> 00:38:07,633
Gold can be traded by a gram,
640
00:38:07,733 --> 00:38:09,233
but the equivalent amount of sats to atoms
641
00:38:09,233 --> 00:38:10,394
is a gram of gold.
642
00:38:10,493 --> 00:38:11,653
Oh my God, he's giving me the numbers,
643
00:38:12,173 --> 00:38:13,394
which is more than it'll ever exist.
644
00:38:13,513 --> 00:38:15,334
Okay, the equivalent amount of sats
645
00:38:15,334 --> 00:38:17,073
to an atom in a gram of gold.
646
00:38:17,953 --> 00:38:19,613
I got cut off, so I don't really follow him.
647
00:38:19,733 --> 00:38:21,573
But I like kind of you giving me this math here.
648
00:38:21,633 --> 00:38:22,334
It just needs to be shorter.
649
00:38:23,013 --> 00:38:23,633
It's got to be shorter.
650
00:38:23,953 --> 00:38:26,273
All right, but tell me what you think of the hand grenade sound boost.
651
00:38:26,834 --> 00:38:29,814
So if you boost in one, two, five, three, three sats,
652
00:38:29,914 --> 00:38:31,133
you'll get the holy hand grenade.
653
00:38:31,314 --> 00:38:32,794
Bring up the holy hand grenade.
654
00:38:33,473 --> 00:38:35,153
Let me know what you think about that, all right?
655
00:38:35,733 --> 00:38:36,334
Let me know what you think.
656
00:38:36,613 --> 00:38:37,733
Thank you, everybody who boosted,
657
00:38:37,794 --> 00:38:40,593
including those of you who boosted below the 2,000 sat cutoff
658
00:38:40,593 --> 00:38:43,434
and those of you who streamed those sats as you listened.
659
00:38:43,653 --> 00:38:46,934
29 of you streamed those sats, and collectively, nice boost.
660
00:38:46,934 --> 00:38:49,374
61,776 sats.
661
00:38:49,733 --> 00:38:50,334
Thank you, everybody.
662
00:38:50,794 --> 00:38:53,374
And when you combine that with our boosters this week,
663
00:38:53,434 --> 00:38:54,073
well, look at that.
664
00:38:54,113 --> 00:38:55,133
Not too bad at all.
665
00:38:55,314 --> 00:38:55,773
Loving that.
666
00:38:55,854 --> 00:38:56,294
Thank you, guys.
667
00:38:56,673 --> 00:39:01,273
We stacked 255,942 sats.
668
00:39:07,093 --> 00:39:07,493
Oh!
669
00:39:08,453 --> 00:39:09,894
If you'd like to support the show,
670
00:39:09,953 --> 00:39:10,934
you can do it with a boost.
671
00:39:11,093 --> 00:39:12,133
Fountain makes it really easy,
672
00:39:12,233 --> 00:39:14,493
but there's a plethora of apps that support boosting.
673
00:39:14,953 --> 00:39:17,033
Those are over at newpodcastapps.com.
674
00:39:17,334 --> 00:39:21,354
You can connect it to AlbiHub, and then you can boost from all kinds of apps and services,
675
00:39:21,633 --> 00:39:24,713
from Noster, from, well, your podcast index website.
676
00:39:24,794 --> 00:39:27,033
I mean, it's just absolutely wild out there.
677
00:39:27,354 --> 00:39:29,533
And I think the show's worth a boost, right?
678
00:39:29,673 --> 00:39:30,473
I'm sitting here now.
679
00:39:30,553 --> 00:39:32,173
We're well into over a year.
680
00:39:32,273 --> 00:39:35,314
We've got 105 episodes, so we've crossed the 100 mark.
681
00:39:35,513 --> 00:39:41,033
So the proof of work has been in the show, sitting here focusing on the signal and what matters.
682
00:39:41,033 --> 00:39:45,073
and I hope you enjoy it because you've made it, you've made the show last this long.
683
00:39:45,193 --> 00:39:52,834
So let's keep it going and you can support the show with a boost or by becoming a Jupiter Party member over at Jupiter.party.
684
00:40:04,294 --> 00:40:10,153
Well, I do have a few updates for you this week and I got to start with this story that I'm sure you've probably heard about,
685
00:40:10,153 --> 00:40:13,053
but it made me think about the larger ramifications.
686
00:40:13,733 --> 00:40:16,673
And that is this user who used Claude Code
687
00:40:16,673 --> 00:40:21,934
to recover about nearly $400,000 worth of Bitcoin.
688
00:40:22,233 --> 00:40:23,193
I'll try to keep it short,
689
00:40:23,294 --> 00:40:25,653
but essentially went to college in like 2013.
690
00:40:26,273 --> 00:40:28,673
Remember Bitcoin going from 100 to 200.
691
00:40:29,053 --> 00:40:29,794
Told all my friends,
692
00:40:29,934 --> 00:40:32,473
hey, I'm missing out on this craze.
693
00:40:33,053 --> 00:40:33,934
I went to a Starbucks,
694
00:40:34,233 --> 00:40:36,854
gave some guy local Bitcoins $200 in cash.
695
00:40:36,914 --> 00:40:37,773
He sent me the coin.
696
00:40:37,834 --> 00:40:38,253
I went home.
697
00:40:38,253 --> 00:40:41,973
My friends were all like, you are the dumbest person we know, but we love you.
698
00:40:42,834 --> 00:40:46,033
Anyway, was a bit of a stoner back then.
699
00:40:46,414 --> 00:40:49,854
Made really complicated passwords on blockchain.info.
700
00:40:50,133 --> 00:40:51,573
I had two out of the three.
701
00:40:52,213 --> 00:40:53,653
Couldn't figure out the third.
702
00:40:54,533 --> 00:40:55,773
Kind of like a forced hold.
703
00:40:55,874 --> 00:40:56,673
I was like, you know what?
704
00:40:56,794 --> 00:40:58,993
Hey, I would have sold this thing anyway.
705
00:40:59,153 --> 00:41:01,753
Let's just like wait till it's 100k or a little more.
706
00:41:02,553 --> 00:41:05,153
Eventually started using all these AI tools.
707
00:41:05,153 --> 00:41:13,253
tried trillions of passwords. And then I had a last ditch effort, went home to my parents' house,
708
00:41:13,473 --> 00:41:18,113
dug through their shed with all my college notebooks and was just feeding anything that
709
00:41:18,113 --> 00:41:33,510
looked like a password or a seed phrase into Claude It ended up decrypting this one I was missing two words It figured it out And then when it told me the password I was like oh my God that was my old password So thought I was screwed Woke up this
710
00:41:33,510 --> 00:41:39,450
morning. I had one last laptop from college that I hadn't gone through. And I just said, whatever,
711
00:41:39,950 --> 00:41:46,010
screw it. Open up Claude and just started dumping all the files from that laptop into it. It ended
712
00:41:46,010 --> 00:41:52,510
up finding this old wallet file and then connected that seed phrase for the old password to it,
713
00:41:53,090 --> 00:41:58,150
decrypted it, and it successfully worked. So something I just never would have tried on my own.
714
00:41:59,150 --> 00:42:03,730
So let's be clear about what happened here. He doesn't say it in that clip,
715
00:42:03,770 --> 00:42:08,830
but after trying for five years, he starts throwing AI tools at it. And then his final hurrah
716
00:42:08,830 --> 00:42:14,930
was he just let the thing scan his entire file system. It walked his entire file system and found
717
00:42:14,930 --> 00:42:19,150
the wallet file and then was able to crack it based on the passwords he had provided and whatnot.
718
00:42:19,670 --> 00:42:24,710
And it makes me wonder if this isn't going to be a future attack vector, if you couldn't
719
00:42:24,710 --> 00:42:29,770
turn this into a kind of malware that scans a person's documents and notes and tries to get
720
00:42:29,770 --> 00:42:36,190
an idea of passwords and uses LLM reasoning to try to figure out passphrases. And I don't know,
721
00:42:36,550 --> 00:42:40,710
it's something I'm probably going to try if this ever happens to me,
722
00:42:40,710 --> 00:42:43,570
But it definitely caught my attention.
723
00:42:44,010 --> 00:42:44,670
All right.
724
00:42:44,690 --> 00:42:47,810
Here's another thing that I was like, whoa, whoa, what?
725
00:42:48,110 --> 00:42:49,610
Ordinals was being used for something?
726
00:42:49,910 --> 00:42:56,130
This is from Chain Analysis, and they're looking at a report from the Italian financial police.
727
00:42:56,530 --> 00:43:08,070
And they say one of their suspects made over a million euros in undeclared gains using Bitcoin ordinals and BRC20 tokens while also collecting public subsidies.
728
00:43:08,070 --> 00:43:10,290
So they were also getting state subsidies.
729
00:43:10,710 --> 00:43:12,410
Now, the interesting part is really the mechanism.
730
00:43:13,130 --> 00:43:16,550
It wasn't just buy Bitcoin, wait for the price to go up, and don't report it.
731
00:43:17,090 --> 00:43:19,690
There was an actual ordinal income loop they used here.
732
00:43:19,850 --> 00:43:21,230
So they would fund inscriptions.
733
00:43:21,530 --> 00:43:22,590
They would then mint assets.
734
00:43:22,690 --> 00:43:28,150
They would list them, sell them for a profit, and then roll the gains back in and repeat.
735
00:43:28,890 --> 00:43:33,970
And the case looked at a – I guess the police got a seized leisure hardware wallet.
736
00:43:33,970 --> 00:43:40,550
And even though the wallet generated fresh addresses for every single transaction, investigators used transaction patterns.
737
00:43:40,710 --> 00:43:43,770
to cluster them together and map the overall activity.
738
00:43:44,390 --> 00:43:45,990
So even though he had self-custody
739
00:43:45,990 --> 00:43:48,970
and even though he was using unique keys for every transaction,
740
00:43:49,490 --> 00:43:51,510
they're still able to put it all together in a graph.
741
00:43:51,630 --> 00:43:54,450
And then they brought it to the conclusion
742
00:43:54,450 --> 00:43:58,490
by then, of course, connecting it to the centralized exchanges he used
743
00:43:58,490 --> 00:44:01,470
and the KYC records, and then boom, they got him.
744
00:44:02,130 --> 00:44:04,810
But he was basically profit harvesting through ordinals.
745
00:44:04,810 --> 00:44:09,130
The entire thing is the only actual use case for ordinals
746
00:44:09,130 --> 00:44:11,150
that I've come across for so far.
747
00:44:11,370 --> 00:44:13,410
So I'll put a link to the Chain Analysis article
748
00:44:13,410 --> 00:44:15,470
in the show notes if you're interested.
749
00:44:16,710 --> 00:44:19,350
And also, I think the other thing that struck me about it
750
00:44:19,350 --> 00:44:22,170
was that it shows that law enforcement's
751
00:44:22,170 --> 00:44:24,630
getting a little more advanced in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
752
00:44:25,970 --> 00:44:28,510
Now, another story that is worth following,
753
00:44:28,650 --> 00:44:31,710
especially if you're a customer of Swan Bitcoin or Strike,
754
00:44:32,290 --> 00:44:34,810
they are both being sued by Prime Trust.
755
00:44:35,370 --> 00:44:36,470
Now, the lawsuit alleges,
756
00:44:36,550 --> 00:44:37,450
and I'll talk about both of them,
757
00:44:37,490 --> 00:44:38,070
we'll start with Strike.
758
00:44:38,070 --> 00:44:42,850
the lawsuit alleges that Strike saw the collapse coming early of Prime Trust and rapidly moved
759
00:44:42,850 --> 00:44:47,690
customer assets off of Prime and then received preferential treatment before the bankruptcy.
760
00:44:48,230 --> 00:44:56,450
According to the complaint, Strike withdrew nearly $29.5 million and 1,939 Bitcoin during
761
00:44:56,450 --> 00:45:04,830
Prime's final weeks, including a 1,350 Bitcoin transfer on June 2, 2023. Prime's estate claims
762
00:45:04,830 --> 00:45:09,430
strike insiders knew about the mounting regulatory pressure, insolvency risk, and operational
763
00:45:09,430 --> 00:45:14,950
problems before they did anything, or before the public did, sorry. In other words, they had
764
00:45:14,950 --> 00:45:19,530
knowledge before the public. The filing also cites strike's own claims submissions where the company
765
00:45:19,530 --> 00:45:24,010
admitted it took steps to, quote, protect its own customers' interests by moving funds to external
766
00:45:24,010 --> 00:45:28,610
accounts away from Prime. You might recall this is when strike went to their own self-hosted
767
00:45:28,610 --> 00:45:32,050
infrastructure. At least that's, I believe, they haven't really given us very many details.
768
00:45:32,050 --> 00:45:43,210
Now, the prime trust estate is attempting to claw back at least $13.9 million and 1,758 Bitcoin from the preferential transfers.
769
00:45:44,230 --> 00:45:45,970
A clawback is a big deal.
770
00:45:46,690 --> 00:45:49,790
The suit alleges also, there's a separate suit, sorry, to make it clear.
771
00:45:50,570 --> 00:45:53,550
My advice would be don't hold massive funds on these platforms.
772
00:45:54,550 --> 00:45:58,530
I don't know why I think strike's probably a little safer is my gut, but here's the situation with Swan.
773
00:45:59,210 --> 00:46:00,410
Swan's also being sued.
774
00:46:00,410 --> 00:46:13,730
They withdrew allegedly 11,944.8 Bitcoin worth $938 million at the publication time and $24.66 million in cash and roughly $5 million in stable coins.
775
00:46:13,890 --> 00:46:22,670
And get this, Swan, the Bitcoin-only company, was also holding 91,144 XRP worth around $130,000.
776
00:46:23,330 --> 00:46:24,430
They did all of that.
777
00:46:24,510 --> 00:46:30,150
They moved all of that from Prime Trust 90 days before the August 2023 bankruptcy filing.
778
00:46:30,410 --> 00:46:33,890
Maybe, I don't know, maybe Swan was hedging XRP. I don't know.
779
00:46:34,690 --> 00:46:36,890
This is a quote from the suit.
780
00:46:37,150 --> 00:46:43,550
Quote, Swan, unlike most of Prime's customers, did not suffer significant losses because Swan had insider non-public information.
781
00:46:44,610 --> 00:46:44,850
Yikes.
782
00:46:44,850 --> 00:46:56,110
Specifically, the suit alleges the senior executive at Prime Trust, who is also a paid Swan advisor, contacted Swan Bitcoin CEO Corey Clipson four days before the company met with Nevada regulators.
783
00:46:56,690 --> 00:47:01,230
And the executive tipped off Clipson about Prime Trust's deteriorating financial conditions.
784
00:47:02,210 --> 00:47:12,270
Swan used Prime Trust as a custodian for its retail exchange business before Prime Trust suffered a catastrophic loss of funds, leading to receivership state of Nevada in 2023, which is now managing this.
785
00:47:12,670 --> 00:47:15,670
I'll note too, I think it was they lost access to a big ETH wallet.
786
00:47:16,230 --> 00:47:20,110
So the folks that were responsible for holding your Bitcoin lost access to a big ETH wallet, Prime.
787
00:47:21,050 --> 00:47:24,430
Kicked this whole thing off, CEOs left, took money, but then didn't have access to it.
788
00:47:25,030 --> 00:47:26,050
A lot of drama covered it before.
789
00:47:26,770 --> 00:47:30,730
Prime Trust is demanding the return of funds transferred as part of its Chapter 11 process.
790
00:47:30,910 --> 00:47:32,130
Swan has yet to respond in court.
791
00:47:32,610 --> 00:47:35,390
Prime Trust appears to be suing other well-known firms as well.
792
00:47:35,950 --> 00:47:40,110
Compass Mining, Fold, and Galaxy Digital also came up in my research.
793
00:47:42,270 --> 00:47:47,290
So don't hold large balances on those exchanges right now.
794
00:47:47,950 --> 00:47:49,310
And wait to see what they say.
795
00:47:49,410 --> 00:47:51,630
They generally are pretty good communicators with their customers.
796
00:47:51,890 --> 00:47:54,870
But self-custody, man, it's all about self-custody.
797
00:47:54,950 --> 00:47:57,170
And both platforms make self-custody pretty straightforward.
798
00:47:57,630 --> 00:48:00,950
So it could be time this weekend or maybe sooner to just look at that.
799
00:48:01,510 --> 00:48:05,170
Now, I want to move to a new topic, something I've been hinting at for a while.
800
00:48:05,210 --> 00:48:09,070
And I kind of just sat down and collected some clips to really kind of make my case for you this week.
801
00:48:09,070 --> 00:48:13,950
and that is we have seen a massive pivot in Bitcoin mining.
802
00:48:14,550 --> 00:48:15,710
And maybe it's for the best.
803
00:48:16,290 --> 00:48:20,990
Before the AI boom, a common topic of conversation among Bitcoiners was centralization.
804
00:48:21,610 --> 00:48:24,390
People aren't talking about centralization quite as much these days
805
00:48:24,390 --> 00:48:29,910
because some of the larger players, some of the largest players in Bitcoin mining are pivoting.
806
00:48:30,150 --> 00:48:32,730
And they're pivoting to AI compute.
807
00:48:33,510 --> 00:48:35,810
And Iron was one of the very first to do this.
808
00:48:35,850 --> 00:48:38,410
So I'm going to play a series of clips that are some of these are a little older.
809
00:48:38,410 --> 00:48:43,810
Some of these are from this week. We'll start with Iron, who's been in this for more than a year now.
810
00:48:44,170 --> 00:48:46,470
Well, turning to another high-flying stock, Iron.
811
00:48:46,850 --> 00:48:50,870
Shares are under pressure today, or they were, but up six-fold in six months.
812
00:48:51,270 --> 00:48:54,590
The company owns and operates huge data centers that are run on renewable energy.
813
00:48:54,710 --> 00:48:59,190
This is a huge growth area amid the quest for more AI compute capacity.
814
00:48:59,370 --> 00:49:04,170
Iron is also a miner of Bitcoin and other things that involve heavy-duty compute power.
815
00:49:04,170 --> 00:49:08,670
So joining us now right here on set is Dan Roberts, Iron co-CEO and co-founder.
816
00:49:08,990 --> 00:49:10,170
It's great to have you back on set.
817
00:49:10,750 --> 00:49:11,310
Great to be here.
818
00:49:11,510 --> 00:49:14,030
So let's start with that because this has been the big talking point.
819
00:49:14,130 --> 00:49:17,490
We've had a big week with lots of news and lots of AI deals announced.
820
00:49:17,670 --> 00:49:18,870
Where do you play in the space?
821
00:49:19,110 --> 00:49:20,070
How quickly is it growing?
822
00:49:20,850 --> 00:49:21,550
Super quickly.
823
00:49:22,150 --> 00:49:24,030
We can't meet the demand fast enough.
824
00:49:24,350 --> 00:49:29,450
And at the heart of it is these AI factories that are delivering compute to hyperscalers,
825
00:49:29,750 --> 00:49:32,390
AI labs, inference, training, enterprise.
826
00:49:32,390 --> 00:49:39,230
Yeah, can't deliver it fast enough. So, of course, others have stepped up. Another name in mining you're probably familiar with is CleanSpark.
827
00:49:39,230 --> 00:49:44,430
Also, taking a quick look at shares of CleanSpark, that stock is down about two and a half percent a little past noon.
828
00:49:44,730 --> 00:49:52,490
Shares of the company spiked yesterday after CleanSpark announced it was pivoting away from pure play Bitcoin mining and will add high performance computing to its business.
829
00:49:53,090 --> 00:49:57,390
Now, another name in the space that you're probably familiar with, one of the largest names, Mara Digital.
830
00:49:57,390 --> 00:50:06,750
Mara continues to shift its focus from Bitcoin mining to the unprecedented demand for compute needed to fuel AI.
831
00:50:07,130 --> 00:50:16,270
On Monday, the company said it sold one and a half billion dollars of Bitcoin to fund data center deals like the acquisition of Longridge Energy and Power in the great state of Ohio.
832
00:50:16,530 --> 00:50:19,770
And the CEO of Mara, Fred Thiel, joins us now.
833
00:50:19,770 --> 00:50:21,530
Fred, great to have you on the program.
834
00:50:21,530 --> 00:50:32,570
I'm really excited to ask you about this transition because if you're mining Bitcoin, you essentially need a ton of compute, a ton of power running rigs that hold microchips.
835
00:50:32,690 --> 00:50:34,330
And the same is true for AI.
836
00:50:34,710 --> 00:50:39,950
Can you just make a switch one to one from mining Bitcoin to providing AI?
837
00:50:40,910 --> 00:50:48,670
Well, it's a little bit different infrastructure, but the key gating item in the AI industry today is availability of power.
838
00:50:48,670 --> 00:50:51,870
and this affects NVIDIA, it affects the memory guys.
839
00:50:52,030 --> 00:50:55,170
If you don't have power where you can plug compute in,
840
00:50:55,530 --> 00:50:56,790
you don't have sales.
841
00:50:57,290 --> 00:50:59,950
And so everybody's chasing the limited amount of power
842
00:50:59,950 --> 00:51:00,570
that's available.
843
00:51:00,730 --> 00:51:03,790
We sit on 1.1 gigawatts of energized capacity.
844
00:51:04,450 --> 00:51:07,670
And so for an AI tenant to come in to one of our sites,
845
00:51:07,710 --> 00:51:09,370
it's a question of permitting,
846
00:51:09,570 --> 00:51:11,690
building the type of building they need,
847
00:51:11,730 --> 00:51:15,070
and then they bring in the compute and plug in.
848
00:51:15,070 --> 00:51:18,550
What that does is it dramatically shortens the lead time
849
00:51:18,550 --> 00:51:19,550
for them to get energized.
850
00:51:19,850 --> 00:51:21,110
We have the power available today.
851
00:51:21,190 --> 00:51:21,870
We have the land.
852
00:51:22,230 --> 00:51:23,570
They can come in and get it permitted,
853
00:51:23,690 --> 00:51:24,170
get it built.
854
00:51:24,330 --> 00:51:25,810
18 to 24 months later,
855
00:51:26,290 --> 00:51:28,070
they are energized and turned on.
856
00:51:28,170 --> 00:51:28,850
And as you know,
857
00:51:29,350 --> 00:51:31,030
by what's in the news about Anthropic
858
00:51:31,030 --> 00:51:33,070
and some of these other model providers,
859
00:51:33,670 --> 00:51:36,150
their ability to grow market share
860
00:51:36,150 --> 00:51:38,050
and support their users' need
861
00:51:38,050 --> 00:51:39,690
for agents and tokens
862
00:51:39,690 --> 00:51:42,170
is totally driven by how much compute they have.
863
00:51:42,570 --> 00:51:44,310
And you have an exponential growth
864
00:51:44,310 --> 00:51:46,010
in the size of the compute needed
865
00:51:46,010 --> 00:51:47,330
to run the basic model,
866
00:51:47,330 --> 00:51:53,370
Plus, the agents are using many fold more tokens than they used before when people were just chatting with AI.
867
00:51:53,950 --> 00:51:56,690
And so you just have an insatiable demand currently.
868
00:51:56,890 --> 00:52:00,570
And all this land and power that we sit on is just a very valuable asset.
869
00:52:00,770 --> 00:52:06,370
So we looked at this and said there was nothing better for us to do with our assets than do this conversion.
870
00:52:06,610 --> 00:52:08,030
It was the best thing for our shareholders.
871
00:52:08,650 --> 00:52:11,750
Now, I think this is a bit bearish for Bitcoin short term.
872
00:52:11,810 --> 00:52:12,290
And I'll tell you why.
873
00:52:12,290 --> 00:52:17,650
Unlike Saylor, miners have always been willing to sell their Bitcoin stack to fund operations for the most part.
874
00:52:18,350 --> 00:52:25,590
Now they're selling large bits of their stack to fund these operations to build out compute and data centers and space for people to rent.
875
00:52:26,490 --> 00:52:29,270
Iron just signed not too long ago a huge deal with Microsoft.
876
00:52:30,230 --> 00:52:31,630
So they're making money on this.
877
00:52:32,150 --> 00:52:34,250
But they're selling their Bitcoin to finance some of this.
878
00:52:34,310 --> 00:52:34,990
Now, not all of them.
879
00:52:35,050 --> 00:52:39,670
Some of them are doing other strategies where they're doing complicated lending and yield programs and whatnot.
880
00:52:39,670 --> 00:52:41,910
And there's different experimentation happening here.
881
00:52:42,290 --> 00:53:05,190
But I would take it. I'd take a discount on Bitcoin to sort of distribute out some of the hash because you're still seeing what we'll see in the network state of the network. But we're generally we have been seeing a upwards adjustment of the difficulty. We'll see. I don't know if that's changing or not. I have to look. But I think maybe their play is the right one. It may be healthier for Bitcoin long term.
882
00:53:05,190 --> 00:53:11,450
and if you think about their core business not as mining bitcoin and producing bitcoin and securing
883
00:53:11,450 --> 00:53:16,330
the network which is how i was mistakenly thinking of their business and if you listen to them
884
00:53:16,330 --> 00:53:21,350
apparently their core business all along has been buying and selling power contracts which
885
00:53:21,350 --> 00:53:26,350
is how they talk about it so you have to admit big money does seem to be getting less skeptical
886
00:53:26,350 --> 00:53:31,650
of the ai bubble where at the beginning of the year the question was is it a bubble is it not a
887
00:53:31,650 --> 00:53:57,270
I think that question's been answered. And I have kind of maybe the quintessential demonstration of this. I want to play Ken Griffin here. We played him before. He's the founder and CEO of Citadel, one of the world's largest hedge funds. He's got real relevance here because in the past, his warning about AI really chilled some of the higher end financing. And now he's changing his tune.
888
00:53:57,270 --> 00:53:59,470
So I'm going to compare and contrast for you.
889
00:53:59,770 --> 00:54:02,690
This is Ken Griffin from three months ago.
890
00:54:02,930 --> 00:54:04,830
There was a recent Harvard paper on this.
891
00:54:05,270 --> 00:54:11,550
They called it AI work slop, that it looks good, but if you sort of peel back the onion,
892
00:54:12,050 --> 00:54:13,250
the substance isn't there.
893
00:54:13,290 --> 00:54:17,330
I was with one of my colleagues who runs our commodities business, and he handed a report
894
00:54:17,330 --> 00:54:20,250
that we were generating with an AI engine.
895
00:54:20,890 --> 00:54:22,270
It doesn't matter what the topic was.
896
00:54:22,410 --> 00:54:25,650
The first few sentences, like, wow, that's really insightful.
897
00:54:25,650 --> 00:54:28,630
and then you go down below that and it's all garbage.
898
00:54:28,910 --> 00:54:29,590
So that's going to...
899
00:54:29,590 --> 00:54:31,750
So that was him three months ago.
900
00:54:31,890 --> 00:54:33,990
Now, I want to play him from this week.
901
00:54:34,070 --> 00:54:36,290
That's a bit still, he kind of has a doomer tint on it.
902
00:54:37,010 --> 00:54:38,750
I think he looks at it as a bad thing.
903
00:54:38,850 --> 00:54:42,050
I look at it as a force multiplier.
904
00:54:43,010 --> 00:54:46,030
But still, to go from, you know, it's just slop.
905
00:54:46,110 --> 00:54:46,810
It doesn't do anything.
906
00:54:46,810 --> 00:54:49,030
When you actually put it to work, it falls apart.
907
00:54:49,030 --> 00:54:52,210
That was his stance just three months ago.
908
00:54:52,350 --> 00:54:53,710
This is what he said this week.
909
00:54:53,710 --> 00:55:00,750
Let me just share a few thoughts with you on this. Number one is, in the last few months,
910
00:55:00,750 --> 00:55:06,990
there has been a step change function in the productivity of the AI toolkit.
911
00:55:06,990 --> 00:55:15,770
It is profoundly more powerful than it was just nine months ago. And for us at Citadel, that has
912
00:55:15,827 --> 00:55:24,307
that has allowed us to unleash a much broader array of use cases for ai and it has been really
913
00:55:24,307 --> 00:55:30,147
interesting to watch to be blunt work that we would usually do with people with masters and
914
00:55:30,147 --> 00:55:38,067
phds in finance over the course of weeks or months being done by ai agents over the course of hours
915
00:55:38,067 --> 00:55:47,007
or days. So these are not mid-tier white-collar jobs. These are like extraordinarily high-skilled
916
00:55:47,007 --> 00:55:56,187
jobs being, I'm going to pick a word, being automated by a Genic AI. And I got to tell
917
00:55:56,187 --> 00:56:03,147
you, I went home one Friday actually fairly depressed by this because you could just see
918
00:56:03,147 --> 00:56:08,247
how this was going to have such a dramatic impact on society.
919
00:56:09,827 --> 00:56:11,707
And when you witness it in your own four walls,
920
00:56:11,827 --> 00:56:16,367
when you see work that used to be man years of work being done in days or weeks,
921
00:56:17,127 --> 00:56:23,087
it's like, wow, that's the first time I've seen real impact in our four walls.
922
00:56:23,347 --> 00:56:25,427
I think it's a positive thing.
923
00:56:25,487 --> 00:56:28,787
He seems to feel it's really a negative.
924
00:56:28,787 --> 00:56:36,407
but in my view, we have added so much complexity over the last 50, 100 years, but really the last
925
00:56:36,407 --> 00:56:42,527
40 years, so much red tape and paperwork and complexity to every single job. Nobody can be
926
00:56:42,527 --> 00:56:46,347
an expert in anything, but every individual often at some point in their life will need
927
00:56:46,347 --> 00:56:51,067
legal advice or you'll need help with paperwork or sorting through a job. And these things are
928
00:56:51,067 --> 00:56:57,027
going to be multipliers for that, that the average people have access to. And people look at it as
929
00:56:57,027 --> 00:56:59,707
big techs just spending all those crazy amounts of money.
930
00:56:59,827 --> 00:57:02,327
But what we're getting is intelligence on demand.
931
00:57:03,067 --> 00:57:05,607
And a lot of it they're giving away at cost right now.
932
00:57:05,907 --> 00:57:10,427
And it's a very unique period of time where we get access to these frontier models and
933
00:57:10,427 --> 00:57:27,753
they subsidizing our access to them And we can use that to build tooling that makes us more effective And you can leverage that in the marketplace to make your business or whatever it is more successful And that is going to imagine a positive version of this where you have a business
934
00:57:27,893 --> 00:57:32,453
say a podcasting business that accelerates production and reduces cost with some agentic
935
00:57:32,453 --> 00:57:37,333
workloads being handled, just totally automated now. And as a treasury, they're stacking Bitcoin
936
00:57:37,333 --> 00:57:38,233
for the long term.
937
00:57:38,413 --> 00:57:40,313
So you make the business more efficient
938
00:57:40,313 --> 00:57:41,673
and you make it run itself more
939
00:57:41,673 --> 00:57:43,553
while you're stacking Bitcoin at the same time.
940
00:57:43,973 --> 00:57:45,073
What do you think that does?
941
00:57:45,393 --> 00:57:47,093
That just enriches the content.
942
00:57:47,233 --> 00:57:49,753
That gives people that are in JB
943
00:57:49,753 --> 00:57:51,893
time to focus on all of the other things
944
00:57:51,893 --> 00:57:53,333
they've never been able to get to
945
00:57:53,333 --> 00:57:54,913
that make the business stronger,
946
00:57:55,033 --> 00:57:56,673
that give us opportunity to hire more
947
00:57:56,673 --> 00:57:58,593
or maybe launch additional podcasts, right?
948
00:57:59,513 --> 00:58:01,853
And that's just at a tiny micro scale.
949
00:58:02,213 --> 00:58:04,733
And you apply that across the entire economy.
950
00:58:04,973 --> 00:58:06,653
And I don't think it's a doomerism thing.
951
00:58:06,653 --> 00:58:08,733
I think it's going to be an extremely positive thing.
952
00:58:09,293 --> 00:58:14,833
And I think it's going to be extremely positive for the businesses that can leverage both that and Bitcoin at the same time.
953
00:58:14,833 --> 00:58:39,333
let's check in on the state of the network before i get out of here i'm wrapping up at
954
00:58:39,333 --> 00:58:42,493
Block height, 950,276.
955
00:58:43,233 --> 00:58:47,033
Bitcoin's price to U.S. dollars right now is 77,520.
956
00:58:47,393 --> 00:58:50,653
That puts our sats per dollar at 1,290.
957
00:58:51,013 --> 00:58:56,653
We're down 38.6% from our all-time high, which was 226 days ago.
958
00:58:57,213 --> 00:58:57,553
Whoa!
959
00:58:58,193 --> 00:58:59,453
Wow, we are survivors.
960
00:58:59,993 --> 00:59:01,133
That is really impressive.
961
00:59:01,933 --> 00:59:04,033
Now, we do have the estimated difficulty adjustment.
962
00:59:04,033 --> 00:59:08,353
It is an upward adjustment, but a very small one of 0.4%.
963
00:59:08,353 --> 00:59:11,393
with a retarget date of May 29th.
964
00:59:11,393 --> 00:59:23,540
So that still has time to change May 29th 2026 If you want to send a transaction right now it one sat per V Not too bad at all We are 1 blocks away from our retarget
965
00:59:23,820 --> 00:59:26,500
And we are still up 0.9% for the day.
966
00:59:26,980 --> 00:59:29,200
And we're still up 1.6% for 30 days.
967
00:59:29,900 --> 00:59:31,480
Hey, I'm going to take a win where I can get it.
968
00:59:32,340 --> 00:59:33,780
I'm going to take a win where I can get it.
969
00:59:34,060 --> 00:59:37,140
Things are moving nice. I mean, even with all of the news of the big miners,
970
00:59:37,240 --> 00:59:39,760
we're still seeing a tiny upwards adjustment of difficulty.
971
00:59:40,240 --> 00:59:41,320
That's great to see, too.
972
00:59:42,000 --> 00:59:44,640
So I'd say the state of the network is indeed quite strong.
973
00:59:50,840 --> 00:59:56,120
Now, if you made it this far, check out links in the show notes over at thisweekinbitcoin.show.
974
00:59:56,440 --> 01:00:00,880
Don't forget, I'd love to get a boost from you and let you chime in on the state of Bitcoin
975
01:00:00,880 --> 01:00:02,020
not and BIP 110.
976
01:00:02,520 --> 01:00:05,680
And if you're still running Bitcoin not, please do love to hear from you.
977
01:00:05,740 --> 01:00:09,940
Also, anything you think I should have covered, any updates, stuff that you think was missed,
978
01:00:10,180 --> 01:00:10,600
let me know.
979
01:00:10,600 --> 01:00:12,100
I'll try to incorporate that stuff.
980
01:00:12,560 --> 01:00:20,860
And of course, my goal here is to give you a show that doesn't get distracted by the emotions around what's happening, but just tries to focus on the signal and tells you what the heck is really going on out there.
981
01:00:21,180 --> 01:00:23,900
So you can always let me know how I did with a boost on that as well.
982
01:00:24,180 --> 01:00:32,340
Now, I don't have any other kind of show announcements for you or anything like that, but in the probably not too distant future, I am going to plan a live show.
983
01:00:32,720 --> 01:00:38,140
And I think it'd be really great to hang out, chat a little bit and do something we've never done.
984
01:00:38,140 --> 01:00:40,260
and then I'll record a regular episode
985
01:00:40,260 --> 01:00:42,280
and you can hang out live for that.
986
01:00:42,680 --> 01:00:43,880
So the way to really participate
987
01:00:43,880 --> 01:00:45,880
is to get a podcasting 2.0 app
988
01:00:45,880 --> 01:00:49,300
or, you know, hang out over jblive.fm
989
01:00:49,300 --> 01:00:50,660
and listen to it wherever you want
990
01:00:50,660 --> 01:00:51,940
when I do announce it.
991
01:00:52,280 --> 01:00:52,920
But that is just something
992
01:00:52,920 --> 01:00:53,800
I want to put on your radar
993
01:00:53,800 --> 01:00:55,320
because I think it's going to be a lot of fun
994
01:00:55,320 --> 01:00:56,700
and the Fountain FM folks
995
01:00:56,700 --> 01:00:59,020
may or may not have it in the works, it seems.
996
01:00:59,500 --> 01:01:00,520
All right, I'm going to leave you
997
01:01:00,520 --> 01:01:02,120
with a value for value track.
998
01:01:02,620 --> 01:01:05,300
This is Heavenpool from Ambrel.
999
01:01:06,080 --> 01:01:07,180
I think that's how you say it.
1000
01:01:07,180 --> 01:01:11,420
send them a boost and 95% of your sats will go to the artists of the track.
1001
01:01:12,767 --> 01:01:42,747
Thank you.
1002
01:01:42,767 --> 01:02:12,747
Thank you.
1003
01:02:12,767 --> 01:02:42,747
Thank you.
1004
01:02:42,767 --> 01:03:12,747
Thank you.
1005
01:03:12,767 --> 01:03:13,267
you