WEBVTT
00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:01.360
Baseball loves numbers.
00:00:01.679 --> 00:00:03.839
91 mile an hour fastball.
00:00:04.160 --> 00:00:06.240
97 exit velocity.
00:00:06.559 --> 00:00:11.839
1.9 pop six point eight sixty three point eight GPA.
00:00:12.720 --> 00:00:15.599
Numbers feel clean, objective, certain.
00:00:15.919 --> 00:00:18.800
But a number is only as trustworthy as the source underneath it.
00:00:19.039 --> 00:00:20.239
Fastball, ninety-one.
00:00:20.559 --> 00:00:21.359
Did he sit there?
00:00:21.440 --> 00:00:21.920
Touch it once.
00:00:22.000 --> 00:00:24.000
Bullpen game, trackman, dad's gun.
00:00:24.160 --> 00:00:27.920
Last week, last year, same number, completely different information.
00:00:28.079 --> 00:00:30.399
Exit velocity is the same, 97.
00:00:30.719 --> 00:00:32.000
T, live pitching.
00:00:32.159 --> 00:00:37.119
Peak, average, one swing, 20, same number, different meaning.
00:00:37.359 --> 00:00:40.799
Once it lands on a polished profile, the context disappears.
00:00:41.039 --> 00:00:42.799
Now it just says 97.
00:00:43.280 --> 00:00:44.399
That's the problem.
00:00:44.640 --> 00:00:48.479
The number may be true, the certainty around it may not be.
00:00:49.119 --> 00:00:52.159
So recruiting information needs a source.
00:00:52.479 --> 00:00:56.640
Verified, observed, reported, inferred, or unknown.
00:00:57.039 --> 00:00:59.119
Trackman is not dad's gun.
00:00:59.359 --> 00:01:02.240
A scout's observation is not a parent's opinion.
00:01:02.479 --> 00:01:05.680
Sometimes the right answer is we don't know yet.
00:01:05.920 --> 00:01:09.280
A verified number without context is still incomplete.
00:01:09.519 --> 00:01:12.799
An opinion without a source is just noise.
00:01:13.040 --> 00:01:18.879
The point is not to remove judgment, it is to show what the judgment is built on.
00:01:19.359 --> 00:01:21.680
That's why I push back on mystery scores.
00:01:21.920 --> 00:01:30.000
If I ask a parent three questions about their son's work ethic and turn the answers into 66%, I haven't measured work ethic.
00:01:30.319 --> 00:01:32.319
I measured the parents' answers.
00:01:32.560 --> 00:01:36.640
So I want two numbers, fit score and confidence score.
00:01:37.120 --> 00:01:43.359
School A fit 92, confidence 47, great fit, weak evidence.
00:01:43.680 --> 00:01:50.000
School B fit 86, confidence 94%, slightly lower fit, stronger evidence.
00:01:50.319 --> 00:01:51.920
Which one would you trust?
00:01:52.159 --> 00:01:58.719
But even if the data is clean and the fit makes sense, the player they recruit is not always the player they get.
00:01:59.040 --> 00:02:06.400
I asked college coaches one question: What's the biggest gap between the player you recruit and the player you get mid-season?
00:02:06.640 --> 00:02:15.120
The answers weren't velocity or rankings, failure, mental approach, baseball IQ, competitive nature, maturity.
00:02:15.439 --> 00:02:17.120
And one answer nailed it.
00:02:17.360 --> 00:02:22.319
The unknown of how they respond with all the moving variables of baseball life in school.
00:02:22.639 --> 00:02:24.159
That's the gap.
00:02:24.400 --> 00:02:27.520
Recruiting sees the player when things are going well.
00:02:27.919 --> 00:02:30.560
He's probably the best player on his team.
00:02:30.879 --> 00:02:31.759
He starts.
00:02:32.000 --> 00:02:33.520
He gets attention.
00:02:33.759 --> 00:02:36.000
Everybody is telling him how good he is.
00:02:36.240 --> 00:02:38.080
Then he gets to college.
00:02:38.560 --> 00:02:41.599
Now he might be the 37th best player in the program.
00:02:41.840 --> 00:02:43.360
Everybody was the guy somewhere.
00:02:43.599 --> 00:02:44.319
Now what?
00:02:44.639 --> 00:02:47.199
What happens when he goes zero for 14?
00:02:47.520 --> 00:02:48.719
Doesn't start?
00:02:48.960 --> 00:02:54.800
Another player takes his job, midterms hit, his body hurts, confidence disappears.
00:02:55.120 --> 00:02:57.360
That's where the player shows up.
00:02:57.680 --> 00:03:00.400
Ask a high school player, are you mentally tough?
00:03:00.639 --> 00:03:00.960
Yes.
00:03:01.199 --> 00:03:01.919
Coachable?
00:03:02.159 --> 00:03:02.479
Yes.
00:03:02.719 --> 00:03:03.520
Handle failure.
00:03:03.680 --> 00:03:03.919
Yes.
00:03:04.159 --> 00:03:04.800
Competitive.
00:03:05.039 --> 00:03:06.159
Absolutely.
00:03:06.400 --> 00:03:08.080
That doesn't mean he's lying.
00:03:08.319 --> 00:03:12.479
If you've always been the best player, you may never have been forced to find out.
00:03:12.719 --> 00:03:15.360
And this is why summer baseball matters so much to me.
00:03:15.439 --> 00:03:16.400
I've coached it.
00:03:16.560 --> 00:03:17.680
I've been a GM.
00:03:17.840 --> 00:03:19.520
I've built rosters.
00:03:19.919 --> 00:03:24.800
One summer, over roughly two and a half months, I signed more than 90 players.
00:03:25.120 --> 00:03:25.919
90.
00:03:26.560 --> 00:03:28.719
Because summer baseball is chaos.
00:03:29.039 --> 00:03:35.280
Players arrive late, leave early, get hurt, transfer, get drafted, don't like the role.
00:03:35.599 --> 00:03:36.879
Want to go home.
00:03:37.120 --> 00:03:41.360
Sometimes the player who arrives is nowhere near the player who was described.
00:03:41.919 --> 00:03:45.360
Anybody who has built a summer roster knows the call.
00:03:45.759 --> 00:03:47.439
I've got a dude for you.
00:03:47.680 --> 00:03:49.280
Okay, what does dude mean?
00:03:49.439 --> 00:03:59.039
Starter, future guy, great kid, needs at bats, or actually good enough for this league right now because placement and development are not the same thing.
00:03:59.199 --> 00:04:04.240
Sometimes a college coach finds the right environment, sometimes he just needs somewhere for the player to go.
00:04:04.560 --> 00:04:06.639
Summer baseball exposes that fast.
00:04:06.960 --> 00:04:11.039
Summer ball doesn't care about your ranking, your scholarship, your school logo.
00:04:11.280 --> 00:04:14.560
The pitcher still has to throw strikes, the hitter still has to hit.
00:04:14.879 --> 00:04:18.959
And when you're one for 18 riding a bus at midnight, your body hurts.
00:04:19.600 --> 00:04:21.120
And there are 30 games left.
00:04:21.279 --> 00:04:22.800
Now I'm learning something.
00:04:23.040 --> 00:04:24.560
You can say you're committed.
00:04:24.800 --> 00:04:26.959
What happens when quitting becomes available?
00:04:27.199 --> 00:04:28.800
You can say you're coachable.
00:04:29.279 --> 00:04:33.199
What happens when a coach you barely know tells you something you don't want to hear?
00:04:33.439 --> 00:04:35.279
You can say you love baseball.
00:04:35.519 --> 00:04:38.959
What happens when you're exhausted and there are 24 games left?
00:04:39.199 --> 00:04:40.240
That is evidence.
00:04:40.560 --> 00:04:43.120
Player goes home, college coach calls.
00:04:43.439 --> 00:04:44.240
How was he?
00:04:44.399 --> 00:04:45.199
Pretty good.
00:04:45.439 --> 00:04:46.639
That's insane.
00:04:47.040 --> 00:04:50.000
We just put the athlete through an eight-week stress test.
00:04:50.399 --> 00:04:54.720
New coaches, new city, travel, fatigue, failure, competition.
00:04:55.199 --> 00:04:57.680
Then we reduce it to batting average.
00:04:57.920 --> 00:05:01.600
Eventually, the game strips away the profile.
00:05:01.920 --> 00:05:04.720
The ranking doesn't help when you're zero for 14.
00:05:04.959 --> 00:05:08.079
The graphic doesn't help when somebody takes your job.
00:05:08.399 --> 00:05:10.319
Under load, habits matter.
00:05:10.639 --> 00:05:11.920
Attention matters.
00:05:12.240 --> 00:05:14.079
Preparation matters.
00:05:14.480 --> 00:05:19.279
Because the player under load is the player colleges eventually get.
00:05:19.519 --> 00:05:24.079
So recruiting cannot stop at one question can he play here?
00:05:24.720 --> 00:05:28.879
It also has to ask who does he become when playing here gets hard?
00:05:29.519 --> 00:05:31.360
That is the real data problem.
00:05:31.759 --> 00:05:36.399
The number tells you what he can do, pressure tells you who he is when it matters.
00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:01.360
Baseball loves numbers.
00:00:01.679 --> 00:00:03.839
91 mile an hour fastball.
00:00:04.160 --> 00:00:06.240
97 exit velocity.
00:00:06.559 --> 00:00:11.839
1.9 pop six point eight sixty three point eight GPA.
00:00:12.720 --> 00:00:15.599
Numbers feel clean, objective, certain.
00:00:15.919 --> 00:00:18.800
But a number is only as trustworthy as the source underneath it.
00:00:19.039 --> 00:00:20.239
Fastball, ninety-one.
00:00:20.559 --> 00:00:21.359
Did he sit there?
00:00:21.440 --> 00:00:21.920
Touch it once.
00:00:22.000 --> 00:00:24.000
Bullpen game, trackman, dad's gun.
00:00:24.160 --> 00:00:27.920
Last week, last year, same number, completely different information.
00:00:28.079 --> 00:00:30.399
Exit velocity is the same, 97.
00:00:30.719 --> 00:00:32.000
T, live pitching.
00:00:32.159 --> 00:00:37.119
Peak, average, one swing, 20, same number, different meaning.
00:00:37.359 --> 00:00:40.799
Once it lands on a polished profile, the context disappears.
00:00:41.039 --> 00:00:42.799
Now it just says 97.
00:00:43.280 --> 00:00:44.399
That's the problem.
00:00:44.640 --> 00:00:48.479
The number may be true, the certainty around it may not be.
00:00:49.119 --> 00:00:52.159
So recruiting information needs a source.
00:00:52.479 --> 00:00:56.640
Verified, observed, reported, inferred, or unknown.
00:00:57.039 --> 00:00:59.119
Trackman is not dad's gun.
00:00:59.359 --> 00:01:02.240
A scout's observation is not a parent's opinion.
00:01:02.479 --> 00:01:05.680
Sometimes the right answer is we don't know yet.
00:01:05.920 --> 00:01:09.280
A verified number without context is still incomplete.
00:01:09.519 --> 00:01:12.799
An opinion without a source is just noise.
00:01:13.040 --> 00:01:18.879
The point is not to remove judgment, it is to show what the judgment is built on.
00:01:19.359 --> 00:01:21.680
That's why I push back on mystery scores.
00:01:21.920 --> 00:01:30.000
If I ask a parent three questions about their son's work ethic and turn the answers into 66%, I haven't measured work ethic.
00:01:30.319 --> 00:01:32.319
I measured the parents' answers.
00:01:32.560 --> 00:01:36.640
So I want two numbers, fit score and confidence score.
00:01:37.120 --> 00:01:43.359
School A fit 92, confidence 47, great fit, weak evidence.
00:01:43.680 --> 00:01:50.000
School B fit 86, confidence 94%, slightly lower fit, stronger evidence.
00:01:50.319 --> 00:01:51.920
Which one would you trust?
00:01:52.159 --> 00:01:58.719
But even if the data is clean and the fit makes sense, the player they recruit is not always the player they get.
00:01:59.040 --> 00:02:06.400
I asked college coaches one question: What's the biggest gap between the player you recruit and the player you get mid-season?
00:02:06.640 --> 00:02:15.120
The answers weren't velocity or rankings, failure, mental approach, baseball IQ, competitive nature, maturity.
00:02:15.439 --> 00:02:17.120
And one answer nailed it.
00:02:17.360 --> 00:02:22.319
The unknown of how they respond with all the moving variables of baseball life in school.
00:02:22.639 --> 00:02:24.159
That's the gap.
00:02:24.400 --> 00:02:27.520
Recruiting sees the player when things are going well.
00:02:27.919 --> 00:02:30.560
He's probably the best player on his team.
00:02:30.879 --> 00:02:31.759
He starts.
00:02:32.000 --> 00:02:33.520
He gets attention.
00:02:33.759 --> 00:02:36.000
Everybody is telling him how good he is.
00:02:36.240 --> 00:02:38.080
Then he gets to college.
00:02:38.560 --> 00:02:41.599
Now he might be the 37th best player in the program.
00:02:41.840 --> 00:02:43.360
Everybody was the guy somewhere.
00:02:43.599 --> 00:02:44.319
Now what?
00:02:44.639 --> 00:02:47.199
What happens when he goes zero for 14?
00:02:47.520 --> 00:02:48.719
Doesn't start?
00:02:48.960 --> 00:02:54.800
Another player takes his job, midterms hit, his body hurts, confidence disappears.
00:02:55.120 --> 00:02:57.360
That's where the player shows up.
00:02:57.680 --> 00:03:00.400
Ask a high school player, are you mentally tough?
00:03:00.639 --> 00:03:00.960
Yes.
00:03:01.199 --> 00:03:01.919
Coachable?
00:03:02.159 --> 00:03:02.479
Yes.
00:03:02.719 --> 00:03:03.520
Handle failure.
00:03:03.680 --> 00:03:03.919
Yes.
00:03:04.159 --> 00:03:04.800
Competitive.
00:03:05.039 --> 00:03:06.159
Absolutely.
00:03:06.400 --> 00:03:08.080
That doesn't mean he's lying.
00:03:08.319 --> 00:03:12.479
If you've always been the best player, you may never have been forced to find out.
00:03:12.719 --> 00:03:15.360
And this is why summer baseball matters so much to me.
00:03:15.439 --> 00:03:16.400
I've coached it.
00:03:16.560 --> 00:03:17.680
I've been a GM.
00:03:17.840 --> 00:03:19.520
I've built rosters.
00:03:19.919 --> 00:03:24.800
One summer, over roughly two and a half months, I signed more than 90 players.
00:03:25.120 --> 00:03:25.919
90.
00:03:26.560 --> 00:03:28.719
Because summer baseball is chaos.
00:03:29.039 --> 00:03:35.280
Players arrive late, leave early, get hurt, transfer, get drafted, don't like the role.
00:03:35.599 --> 00:03:36.879
Want to go home.
00:03:37.120 --> 00:03:41.360
Sometimes the player who arrives is nowhere near the player who was described.
00:03:41.919 --> 00:03:45.360
Anybody who has built a summer roster knows the call.
00:03:45.759 --> 00:03:47.439
I've got a dude for you.
00:03:47.680 --> 00:03:49.280
Okay, what does dude mean?
00:03:49.439 --> 00:03:59.039
Starter, future guy, great kid, needs at bats, or actually good enough for this league right now because placement and development are not the same thing.
00:03:59.199 --> 00:04:04.240
Sometimes a college coach finds the right environment, sometimes he just needs somewhere for the player to go.
00:04:04.560 --> 00:04:06.639
Summer baseball exposes that fast.
00:04:06.960 --> 00:04:11.039
Summer ball doesn't care about your ranking, your scholarship, your school logo.
00:04:11.280 --> 00:04:14.560
The pitcher still has to throw strikes, the hitter still has to hit.
00:04:14.879 --> 00:04:18.959
And when you're one for 18 riding a bus at midnight, your body hurts.
00:04:19.600 --> 00:04:21.120
And there are 30 games left.
00:04:21.279 --> 00:04:22.800
Now I'm learning something.
00:04:23.040 --> 00:04:24.560
You can say you're committed.
00:04:24.800 --> 00:04:26.959
What happens when quitting becomes available?
00:04:27.199 --> 00:04:28.800
You can say you're coachable.
00:04:29.279 --> 00:04:33.199
What happens when a coach you barely know tells you something you don't want to hear?
00:04:33.439 --> 00:04:35.279
You can say you love baseball.
00:04:35.519 --> 00:04:38.959
What happens when you're exhausted and there are 24 games left?
00:04:39.199 --> 00:04:40.240
That is evidence.
00:04:40.560 --> 00:04:43.120
Player goes home, college coach calls.
00:04:43.439 --> 00:04:44.240
How was he?
00:04:44.399 --> 00:04:45.199
Pretty good.
00:04:45.439 --> 00:04:46.639
That's insane.
00:04:47.040 --> 00:04:50.000
We just put the athlete through an eight-week stress test.
00:04:50.399 --> 00:04:54.720
New coaches, new city, travel, fatigue, failure, competition.
00:04:55.199 --> 00:04:57.680
Then we reduce it to batting average.
00:04:57.920 --> 00:05:01.600
Eventually, the game strips away the profile.
00:05:01.920 --> 00:05:04.720
The ranking doesn't help when you're zero for 14.
00:05:04.959 --> 00:05:08.079
The graphic doesn't help when somebody takes your job.
00:05:08.399 --> 00:05:10.319
Under load, habits matter.
00:05:10.639 --> 00:05:11.920
Attention matters.
00:05:12.240 --> 00:05:14.079
Preparation matters.
00:05:14.480 --> 00:05:19.279
Because the player under load is the player colleges eventually get.
00:05:19.519 --> 00:05:24.079
So recruiting cannot stop at one question can he play here?
00:05:24.720 --> 00:05:28.879
It also has to ask who does he become when playing here gets hard?
00:05:29.519 --> 00:05:31.360
That is the real data problem.
00:05:31.759 --> 00:05:36.399
The number tells you what he can do, pressure tells you who he is when it matters.
