Dave Aranda Fired, Oregon Makes a Change & Bill-toberfest Finale

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Solid Verbal.
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Speaker 2: The Solid Verbal.
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Speaker 1: Come after me.
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Speaker 3: I'm a man.
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Speaker 1: I'm 40.
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Speaker 2: I've heard so many players say, well, I want to be happy.
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Speaker 3: You want to be happy for a day?
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Speaker 2: Eat a steak.
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Speaker 3: It's that woo woo.
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Speaker 1: And now, Dan and Ty.
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Speaker 3: Dan Rubenstein, a way to be honest. Show about honesty. How's your sleep level after this weekend?
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Speaker 2: I slept pretty good last night. I slept pretty well, whatever it is. It was maybe 9.15 to about 5.30 this morning. Woke up a couple times, but nothing extended. I'm in a pretty good place. I'm more just like fried from life than I am from just last night's sleep. But I'm getting there. I think we're heading in the right direction today. I have a good lunch planned. I think I'm going to be okay.
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Speaker 3: I'm cooked, man. Physically, I'm cooked. These last two weeks of games, I mean, I love it. I'm not asking for any sympathy. Far from it.
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Speaker 1: I know. I hear you.
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Speaker 3: These last two weeks have been something else here. So thank you to one and all for downloading, for listening, for helping push us along here. Please make sure you rate, review, and subscribe if you're new to the show. Even if you've been here a while and haven't done any of those things, we would greatly appreciate it. Verbalers.com truly goes a long way towards helping us out. Run the Board has been awesome. The Verbaler Top 12 has been awesome. We could talk about the Verbaler Top 12 here in a little bit and see how it compares to what we submitted to the AP on Sunday morning. And of course, it is still a Monday in October, which means our final installment is of Bill Toberfest, Dan Rubinstein. We're going to have Bill Connolly from ESPN.com on here just a little bit to talk through what he saw this weekend, some takeaways from this weekend, maybe some projection about what is still to come.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, there's obviously a ton to come. And if I may.
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Speaker 2: As a longtime Northwestern fan, Ty, we really haven't... Yes. We really haven't felt this level of steam, Ty. And I just want to make sure we're all on the same page here. We're all locked in. And as you know, I'm an Arizona legacy.
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Speaker 1: Sure.
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Speaker 2: So I'm really in a good place fan-wise that my guy Noah Fafita is executing. The defense hasn't fallen off like a lot of the haters said it would. Obviously, Chip with Northwestern is getting things done. And Aiden Childs is a lot cleaner than we thought as a Northwestern community he would be. So, you know, it's looking good, Ty.
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Speaker 1: I can't lie.
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Speaker 2: This next month of the season is just, I feel blessed. I feel fortunate as a Northwestern and Arizona fan here. And you're double Wildcat, if you will. That's what they're calling me on the streets around here. Like, double Wild, double Wild. And I was like, no, no, no, guys. You got to wait till the games are finished. But in terms of my fandom, Ty.
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Speaker 1: Yeah. We're soaring here.
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Speaker 3: We do have some breaking news. We have breaking news!
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Speaker 2: Boop, boop, boop, boop.
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Speaker 3: I think I enjoy yelling that so much, I can never actually record it and hit a button for it.
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Speaker 1: Oh, yeah. Okay.
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Speaker 2: I don't think you should. I think you should be present and in the moment with it.
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Speaker 3: I want to be organic and authentic, and that's... Why people listen to this show. We've got another firing to report. So you may recall last week we had Mike Loxley. Then after NC State went down on Friday night, we had Dave Doran. Now, in light of Baylor's loss, we've got Dave Aranda. At long last, the Dave Aranda thing comes to a conclusion. He had been there since 2020. Clearly, the high watermark was in 2021 when they were Big 12 champions. They won the Sugar Bowl. They finished in the top five of the AP. 12-2 season, it felt as though things were very much on the upswing. Bear in mind, the 2020 season, they had a lot to correct. Aranda got accolades for how quickly he corrected it.
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Speaker 1: Right.
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Speaker 3: From that point, though, it has been diminishing returns. It's been a lot of stuck in neutral. 4-3. this season at time of dismissal over the course of his tenure at Baylor. He finished exactly with a 40 and 40 mark since that championship season, a mark of 26 and 31, only two winning seasons out of his six. So yeah, this has been, I think a long time coming. I texted with a friend, the Pope, Peter Pope. Yeah.
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Speaker 1: Our guy. Not Leo. Not Pope Leo, yeah.
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Speaker 3: Not Pope Leo, yeah. Different Pope. Different Pope, yeah. Was not surprised. I imagine Baylor fans were not at all surprised. We've got a list of names here. I could talk through that, but Aranda's a really interesting cat. He's a different kind of guy. I think genuinely one of the good guys, but it didn't work out as head coach. Will probably be a big name on the market in terms of the defensive coordinator, if not a coach at a lower level. I doubt that, but I would think Certainly in terms of what he brings on the defensive side of the ball, he'd be a name that we'd be hearing a lot more about here as we get into the offseason.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, USC can hire if Lincoln Riley is not taking the Baylor job. They can hire their fifth coordinator in as many years. We can keep it going. SC, just a rotating cast of characters in the booth. Yeah, it seemed like it was time. And with all, I guess, three of these guys, if you're including Mike Loxley in this conversation, we've been using the term butt king. I guess maybe I've been using the term butt king.
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Speaker 3: It's just you. It's nobody else.
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Speaker 2: There is something with all three of these situations that they also fall into the butt king category. And that's, yes, we see that you're losing games, but you can't lose to Kansas. but you can't lose to stanford but you can't lose to rutgers right there's a a final straw feel and that's not a surprise that's nothing new but it's not as if they were getting destroyed by somebody excellent and because they were not competitive that was the final straw it was they made decisions to try to fix things and try to get things right for this season they didn't take and perhaps had they shown some sort of evidence against one of those teams and now All of those teams, all three of those teams, Stanford has shown life. Certainly Kansas has shown life this season. Rutgers has been disappointed in losing to UMass, but they've been a little bit more competitive at times than just a total waste. And those three guys lost those games. And it was like, yeah, there's no going back from that. There's no coming back. So yeah, it seemed like a matter of time and they'll all have a jump on hiring the new guy, jump on the portal where they're, I'm sure all three of those places will be bringing in dozens upon dozens of new players once again. And the cycle continues.
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Speaker 3: I have seen some really interesting names in conjunction with this opening. And like a lot of things, it's still October. None of this, none of this is anything more than speculation. The combination of Jeff Traylor and G.J. Kinney, both of whom I really like, who are in the state of Texas right now, both of whom have Have a lot of connections. Jeff Traylor, I think, would be fabulous wherever he goes, if he goes. He seems to like where he's at at UTSA. But then also, as you mentioned, Lincoln Riley's name has come up, given his connection to the region and maybe some growing unrest at USC. Another name, and this one blew me away. Matt Rule? I don't buy it.
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Speaker 1: I don't buy it either.
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Speaker 3: Was a coach at Baylor. Was successful at Baylor before leaving to take another job. Um, I, again, I, I don't think it's going to happen, but this is the time of year that I love if only because you get some odd combinations to at least think about with respect to who the next guy might be. So Riley and rule some names that are being kicked around. Um, I also saw Spencer Danielson from Boise state was another one there. I mean, there's a bunch floating around for that Baylor job. So we'll see.
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Speaker 1: I mean, there, yeah.
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Speaker 2: I mean, there's also the idea that there are going to be more openings. So a lot of these guys are, you know, that have been successful and have had their names thrown into these conversations. I know TCU fans, not exactly thrilled with their coaching situation and their season thus far. And obviously the other side of a rivalry that rivalry there with Baylor. So it could be competing for a head coach if there's interest. Um, I don't expect it to be a crazy carousel this year, but it's not done.
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Speaker 3: It's certainly not done. And all it takes is a Texas to randomly come open or USC to come open. And then suddenly everything we thought we were getting out of the carousel goes out the window. So it is early. There are some teams that are jumping in now earlier to try and get a head start. We'll see who is to follow. There will be more. It's not a head coaching opening, but it is a coordinator opening. It is, again, not a huge surprise. Oregon made a move. Dan Lanning announced that they had dismissed Drew Merringer on Sunday, seven games into his first season as the sole offensive coordinator. They did not name an interim in the official announcement. Maybe you can speak to that and who's going to be calling the plays. But I just... I want to get your take on this. This is again, not any great surprise that this would happen.
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Speaker 2: No, but it's a high profile move.
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Speaker 1: Yeah.
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Speaker 3: It's a big announcement where the season was expected to go.
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Speaker 1: Yeah.
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Speaker 3: You said it in the video that you recorded and posted, which went gangbusters across the social platforms that you're not wanting to call for heads, but you sort of needed to fire somebody in response to what we saw this past weekend. So Merringer was the obvious candidate for that. He was removed from his command.
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Speaker 1: Yep.
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Speaker 3: What, what does Oregon do now the rest of the season and then moving forward based on what we have seen now through eight weeks of the college football season? Like what does the next step look like as we project forward into 27?
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Speaker 2: Roster massage to keep as many people in Eugene as humanly possible for next season. And the search, I'm sure, has probably already begun, right? Thinking about where you're going to go at both at quarterback and at offensive coordinator for next season. The short to medium version is it was not a hire that got a lot of people excited, but Dan Lanning nailed offensive coordinator with Kenny Dillingham and Will Steiner. before quarterbacks developed or continued to develop and they won a ton of games and dan laning received the benefit of the doubt because he has been a very good coach for oregon uh going whatever it was uh 24 and 1 in his first two seasons in the big 10 winning the conference in his first season there and the oregon's first season there drew merringer had experience as a coordinator was underwhelming but you can talk yourself as an oregon fan into the experience given that like The success in Dan Lanning's track record and the amount of talent on hand and the comfort level and the fluency within this offense. And it obviously is something that Lanning will now own as probably his biggest mistake of his tenure in Eugene. I'm all in on Dan Lanning as Oregon's coach. I think what he's done has proven himself to be a super effective major head college football coach, has come up short late, but I think he's been great for Oregon. I think he will get it figured out. We'll see what the roster looks like. But it was clear this season. Look, Dante Moore got hurt. The starting quarterback got hurt. And so you don't really know what Oregon would have been this year with him. I had said, like, at best, they would have been 6-1 with some major questions and underperformances against teams like Illinois and UCLA, but are likely winning those games. So now we don't live in that reality. I don't put this totally on him, but obviously... An offense is going to continue to fade and collapse if nothing changes. The quarterback play has been abysmal. That's not breaking news. Dylan Raiola and Brock Thomas are nowhere near what Dante Moore's ceiling is or average is. And you watch that Illinois game.
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Speaker 1: There's just... It's quarterback guessing. It's nothing. So... Who's responsible for that?
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Speaker 3: I don't know.
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Speaker 2: Open for interpretation. But Oregon was not going to win 10-11 games most seasons in the Big Ten with this offensive staff. So I imagine it's going to look very different next year. I have no idea what the quarterback mark is going to look like. There's the sidebar there. If we're talking about off-season carousel stuff with coaches, if you are a quarterback and it seems that you have value and eligibility, like... decent value and definite eligibility left, your bank account is about to look spectacular. Like what is Camario Taylor? Look, Camario Taylor could be playing for Mississippi state next year. I hope he does play for Mississippi state next year. I think that would be better for the sport.
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Speaker 3: I think he will. I think he's staying put, but that's just me.
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Speaker 2: But what kind of raise is he getting from Mississippi state next year? What is his bank account going to look like? And so whether you're a G6 quarterback, when it's a Braden Atkinson with a ton of eligibility left at Oregon state or We just saw Jesse Legree announced he's committed and coming back. I hope that's true for Braden Atkinson as well. But all of these schools that are going to need quarterbacks, Oregon, Miami, Michigan, perhaps Texas, right? We don't know who is going to exactly be the spenders, but of those guys with eligibility and perhaps a little bit of wiggle room in terms.
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Speaker 1: Of, yeah, I'll float my name out there. Oh my God, are you.
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Speaker 2: Going to get paid? Holy hell, are you going to get paid? Hopefully by the team you are currently playing for. But either way, the premiums are going to be thrown around.
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Speaker 3: How would you feel about a Rob Ezell, Gio Lopez tandem coming to the Pacific Northwest?
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Speaker 2: I would have to watch more of. you know, wakes offense, uh, especially against some of the better teams and go back and rewatch Miami. Gio Lopez, that'd be four teams in four years.
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Speaker 3: It would be.
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Speaker 1: Yeah.
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Speaker 2: That'd be South Alabama, North Carolina, Wake Forest, and Oregon. I know he has a year left. Lenore sellers may have a year left.
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Speaker 1: I don't know.
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Speaker 2: Like arch has a year left. There are names out there, especially if a change is made at Texas or especially if arch, you know, I, I suspect that he might go to some place like Georgia who looks like they could be spenders, uh, That's just a guess, by the way.
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Speaker 3: That is not informed. Yeah, I'm speculating. I saw that written. I thought that was.
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Speaker 2: But there are quarterbacks with upside, with eligibility left, whose bank accounts will flourish.
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Speaker 3: What are the boards saying around? And again, I'm not asking for insider info, but are there any names?
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Speaker 1: On the duck web?
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Speaker 3: Yeah, on the duck web. Thank you. Are there names that have popped for coordinator that you saw and gave you some of the tingles?
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Speaker 1: Not especially.
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Speaker 2: Oregon State's guy just because he's close by. Buster Faulkner was a name that Oregon people were interested in last cycle because of his time at Georgia and Dan Lanning's time at Georgia.
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Speaker 1: I saw Chip.
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Speaker 3: Chip's name came up.
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Speaker 1: Chip's not coming back.
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Speaker 2: Chip's got it good, man. Chip, you know, he can just Coach Ball, live in the Chicago Burbs, and take a Northwestern team to the Big Ten Championship game.
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Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't think he's going back to Eugene.
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Speaker 3: The other names that I saw, and again, this is just raw speculation from other people's sites, not anything that we've gotten through the grapevine.
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Speaker 1: Mike Loxley.
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Speaker 3: I saw Lox. I saw Holgerson. Yep. I saw Aaron Roderick from BYU.
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Speaker 2: Mm hmm.
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Speaker 1: Good job there.
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Speaker 3: And the other name I saw was Joe Sloan at Kentucky, which I didn't really like, but he's obviously done a pretty good job this year.
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Speaker 2: And the Will Stein connection. Yeah, I I think Dan Lanning will scour thoroughly in the way that he was. I mean, he had the preexisting relationship with Kenny Dillingham, but the Will Stein thing going to UTSA with a younger guy for sure was, I think, a product of being thorough with interviewing and evaluating. I think it'll be the same thing. I don't have a specific name where I'm like, that's the obvious guy to target.
00:16:37
Speaker 1: Other than Chip Kelly.
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Speaker 2: If Chip Kelly didn't have the history in Oregon. But yeah, I think they will pay and they will pay for a quarterback. And the quarterback for next year's team is not in Eugene at the moment. It'll be fascinating to see. But the story here is total free fall this year.
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Speaker 3: The other thing that I wanted to circle back to just on the coaching front, and then we'll get to Bill, the NC State opening, we announced it briefly. when we did our reaction episode on Saturday night. Since then, there has been some really interesting speculation about which direction they might go with that job. Dave Doran had been there forever. It was clearly time to make a move. Again, speaking of things that weren't breaking news, just with the way the season had gone, it was clear that the Doran era had run its course. The question now is, are you hiring another program builder type Or are you going to go in the direction of the guy who can unlock enthusiasm and therefore money? Because you see an interesting branch in the decision tree. On one side, it might be a guy like a Manny Diaz or a Charles Huff or maybe even Jason Eck. Everybody wants Jason Eck right now with what he's done at New Mexico.
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Speaker 1: For sure.
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Speaker 3: On the other, speaking to the enthusiasm, perhaps the money men, Phillip Rivers very much getting some real speculation. His kid, already a highly touted recruit committed to NC State, is someone whose services I'd imagine they want to retain. But I've seen Pete Thamel, many others reporting that Phillip Rivers, who had coached successfully high school football, in the state of Alabama, could be a name that is in the hunt, maybe atop the search right now. He's clearly got a lot of NC State in him, right? School identity, getting donors excited, all that stuff that you look for in a coach, maybe to try and juice some enthusiasm after... years now of it being sort of stuck in neutral. Rivers would be an interesting name. I don't know how close it is to happening. I don't know if he's a real consideration, but some of the top reporters around college football are at least saying at this point that he's going to get a look. So we'll see.
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Speaker 2: I mean, I would hate that for NC State. And I am a Philip Rivers guy. Loved watching Philip Rivers. Loved the Philip Rivers vibe. you kind of want somebody with some experience coaching major college football or mid-major college football or coordinating major college football. NC State is, look, a good job is only as good as how much financial enthusiasm there is behind the scenes in this moment. But I kind of would hate that for NC State.
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Speaker 3: I mean, counterpoint, you could build a Phillip Rivers pipeline, literally, given the fact that he's got, I believe, three sons. Gunner is now committed to NC State. I don't know how the others are at football, but if they're any good, you can just sort of keep it. in the bloodline.
00:19:51
Speaker 2: A lot of bites at the apple. A lot of Rivers bites at the apple. Yeah, I mean, I've seen like Brian Haynes' name come up with, I think it was the Maryland opening.
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Speaker 3: The Maryland's opening is weird because I've seen, I think it was John Bryce reporting on what is the level of spend that Maryland's comfortable without. in regard to their head coaching opening. And so it may not be a matter of who the fans want. It may be a matter of which coach is willing to accept what Maryland is offering, both in terms of compensation for the coach and overall spend around the program.
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Speaker 1: I agree.
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Speaker 2: I mean, it feels like Maryland should be targeting look, everybody's targeting the next Bob Chesney. Good luck finding that. That's not somebody who's going to pop up every year. But targeting somebody who has proven himself to do more with less, perhaps at lower levels, right? Everybody's looking for the next Kurt Cignetti. Everybody's looking for the next Jason Eck. That if money is not going to be flowing through the program, you need to gamble on evaluation, gamble on enthusiasm, right? Like I think Jake Dickert's name is going to come up a lot, maybe for some bigger jobs.
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Speaker 3: Oh yeah. Oh yeah.
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Speaker 2: But with what he's done at Wake Forest, another name, by the way, I have no reason to believe he'd leave. But if you're, if you're talking about situations in which a guy is peaking and could capitalize on where his program is right now, like we're talking about Jake Dickert, David Braun at Northwestern, I don't know if we see this lasting forever at Northwestern, Chip Kelly. He's got the contract extension. He just got the extension. But this is what happens when you succeed and you go 6-1 in a major conference. People want a taste of that, whatever that elixir is. And so there are going to be those names. I don't know if they're going to be related to Maryland specifically, but I think they're going to be searching for those types of names that perhaps are winning on evaluation more so than constant big money talent acquisition.
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Speaker 3: The final bit of news here that I want to get to before we get to our final installment of Bill Toberfest. Of course. We do have a new Verballer top 12 poll at the ready. It just closed up as we were recording our interview. Surprise, surprise. A little bit earlier with our friend Bill. Number one, Miami. Number two, Ohio State. Number three, Georgia. Number four, Utah. Number five, UCLA. Okay. Number six, Indiana. Number seven, Notre Dame. Number eight, BYU. BYU in this poll dropped below Notre Dame just a week after beating Notre Dame. Okay.
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Speaker 1: Yep.
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Speaker 3: We had Kentucky at nine, Alabama at 10, LSU at 11, Texas up to number 12. The biggest mover in this poll is LSU, who is up eight and now into the top 12. Utah also moved up six spots to get to number four. BYU drops. We also saw a nice little rise here for Texas after their win this past weekend. So a little bit different from what we submitted. River Baller Hood, not quite as high on Utah, but still has them in the top five. Same deal with UCLA. We probably disagree the most with Indiana, who we had a little bit lower. BYU, who we also had a little bit higher. And then at the back end of that top 12 is It's really anyone's guess. As I was talking to people and fighting the good fight, I'll have you know, out there on X the Everything app, there was a fair amount of disagreement with the top nine, specifically the back end of that top nine. After you get past nine, there's a whole glob of teams that kind of feel the same. And that's where I'm finding, at least with what people are sending me, the most disagreement. There are nine teams that you can argue over. But outside of that, outside of that, you got a whole range of arguments and it really is dealer's choice.
00:23:48
Speaker 2: Well, this is, by the way, did you see, I don't know if it was a YouTube comment, I don't know if it was an email, some bit of engagement on our content indicated that All these years, Ty once again wasn't wrong.
00:24:01
Speaker 1: He was just early.
00:24:02
Speaker 2: It may actually take until December to learn more about the teams that are playing the 2026 college football season. It may indeed take the full 14 weeks or whatever. And Ty just, he was early.
00:24:17
Speaker 3: Were there any teams that that person called out specifically? Because I need every arrow in the quiver right now. I'm taking in more than I'm shooting out. So I need some more ammo here for these conversations on Sunday mornings.
00:24:30
Speaker 2: No, it was just the Big Ten quarterback injuries and issues and the SEC teams that are at or near the top playing sort of inconsistently. The ACC having no real clarity after maybe Miami Wake and SMU. And then the Big 12 looking like there was clarity at or near the top. And then that becomes muddled somewhat. Uh, you know, Bill mentioned how the, uh, the American is just all over the place all the time that it might take the full season to fully suss out who might be something and who likely isn't.
00:25:05
Speaker 3: Unbelievable. It's college football for you. That's the best. So look, we've got a huge week of games coming up in week nine. It's going to be played on Halloween, which if you've been watching college football for any period of time, let's say the last 10 years at a minimum, uh, Weird things happen on Halloween.
00:25:23
Speaker 1: Yes.
00:25:23
Speaker 3: They just happen on Halloween. So clearly we will have some weird stuff that goes down this weekend. Week 10, I don't need to talk much more about Week 10. You know Week 10 is going to be a doozy. I would say get your window of opportunity in this week. We will speak to that on the Wednesday preview episode. But this would be the week to get the window of opportunity in because your best chance for a window of opportunity in Week 10 is probably not until Sunday.
00:25:45
Speaker 2: Correct.
00:25:46
Speaker 3: Just calling it out. Dan Rubenstein, it is the final Monday of October that only means one thing. Bill Connolly, ESPN.com. Welcome back, my good friend. How are you today?
00:26:04
Speaker 1: I still think I need that music to follow me wherever I go now. It's going to be a big letdown moving forward.
00:26:10
Speaker 2: What I think the move is, is you have to get the sound and you have to get it to people's phones directly. to which you call, right? So when you call your wife, when you call your kid, it's Bill here, Bill here. And that way you are announced in a way that is unique to you only and perhaps other Bills.
00:26:35
Speaker 1: No, just me.
00:26:36
Speaker 3: Just me.
00:26:36
Speaker 2: Just you.
00:26:37
Speaker 1: OK, fair. One more.
00:26:39
Speaker 3: How did you enjoy week eight, Bill? It wasn't quite as frenetic as week seven, but it also wasn't not frenetic. We saw a bunch of movement in the top, you know, whatever, of college football. It feels very much like this is a season in flux from week to week. We have been building on some level to week 10, but even before we get there, we've got a lot to discuss given what we saw go down over the last two weeks. So I guess just from a personal standpoint, how is your health? How is your hydration? How is your sleep level? Where are you just at as a person?
00:27:17
Speaker 1: Well, Missouri hasn't had like it's been a little run of no home games here. I got one more week. So that means I'm hydrated. Well, that tends to affect things a little bit. No, it's it's this is this is I guess it's you don't want this all the time because you like having your bearings sometimes. But I, you know, every X number of years, I want a stupid chaos season and to remind everybody that stupid chaos seasons can happen. And I'm, I'm getting it. This isn't a seven in that, you know, we got UCLA in the top seven, which by the way, rank them higher cowards.
00:27:51
Speaker 3: We got them at four.
00:27:54
Speaker 1: What are we doing? We have four one-loss teams ahead of them. We don't have opportunities to rank UCLA in the top three very often. What are we doing? But otherwise, Kentucky is up there, I guess. I still don't think that lasts, but we got UCLA and Kentucky. We've got some upstarts, but 07 had nothing but upstarts, it felt like, so we're still a little off there, but a top-two team losing to an unranked team every single week, I'm fine if that continues.
00:28:19
Speaker 3: Just to give people a peek behind the curtain, I was privy to a conversation here before we hit start between Bill and Dan, in which Bill reminded Dan that it may not take much, in spite of everything we have seen so far, at least over these last couple weeks from the Oregon Ducks. It would take like a stiff gust of wind and a continued... level of dominance on the defensive side of the ball to potentially get Oregon back in a playoff conversation. Stop, stop. Dan did not like that. I was hoping maybe we could just have a reenactment.
00:28:56
Speaker 2: Buddy, it'll take a stiff gust of wind from a defense to keep Oregon out of a bowl. Another team's defense, the way I am telling.
00:29:08
Speaker 1: You right now.
00:29:09
Speaker 2: We've seen free falls in college football before. We've seen your big, beautiful Notre Dame fighting Irish go four and eight. Have we not?
00:29:18
Speaker 1: We have.
00:29:18
Speaker 3: We saw Penn State basically collapse last year as well.
00:29:21
Speaker 2: I'm telling you, we're not about to see a free fall. Buddy, we're losing altitude fast.
00:29:29
Speaker 1: Not scoring against Illinois' defense Was kind of a different.
00:29:32
Speaker 2: Level And they had an opening score Drive And then Zero touchdowns Move the.
00:29:38
Speaker 1: Ball I mean overall though the offensive numbers really weren't as bad as you would think for that situation. But, you know, I'm not saying, I'm just saying. I know. That Oregon... It's not technically over, even if it's mostly over. And by the way, all the reasons for hating the 2014 playoff, all these teams that hate their team by this point because they've lost two or three games, but might still get into the playoff. We think getting into the playoffs is going to mean something when Oregon fans hate Oregon. But they snuck in with the number 22 seed or something like that.
00:30:12
Speaker 3: That's.
00:30:13
Speaker 1: First round is going to be nothing soon. And I hate it, but that's, we're not here for negativity. We're here for positivity and Oregon still has a chance. I agree.
00:30:19
Speaker 2: There's not too many teams that fall to three losses from a presumed higher place that are thrilled with the idea of like, well, we're number 22. We should be top five with the talent on hand, but I love that we get to get crushed in late December and, It's not a great feeling, but anyway, it's a very specific feeling. But speak more to, if you can, the idea of how things are shaping up. Like when you look at the rankings, and I think I'm on the same page with you, you look at the teams who already have two losses. We are going to head into a November or Thanksgiving-ish time where this could be the angriest and most brutal the discourse has ever been because we're parsing out good, but not great.
00:31:11
Speaker 1: So many nine and three sec teams yelling in, in late November. Just can't, can't wait. It's going to be, it's going to be amazing. Um, Well, I mean, they've been screaming since June, so we knew this was coming. But I think, I mean, the SEC really making no sense whatsoever. And everybody having lost this many games before we even get to the good stuff, before we even get to November, is pretty crazy. And like only one team has a pretty good chance of getting into 10-2 or better. It is going to be... messy especially if wake forest keeps winning and they get to like the finish line with only losses to miami on their schedule or um obviously the big 12's picture is a little weirder now um with texas tech and byu losing but um they still have like arizona is still alive as well like there are still easily multiple bids coming from the big 12 i think so it is going to be all our favorite parts of of moaning and groaning coaches and everybody politicking everywhere at all times it's uh We're steaming right for it. Can't wait.
00:32:10
Speaker 3: Bill, can I pick up that Arizona thread for a second?
00:32:13
Speaker 1: Go.
00:32:14
Speaker 3: They're good. We got a call this morning on the reverb line, which isn't open. Right. The week has passed us. We don't open it until like the end of the week. Got a message 830 a.m. Eastern time from a gentleman in his car who wanted to know when we would start talking more about the cats. I just want to give that guy a shout out. He is up in his feels. If he's calling us at 830, my time to talk about Arizona. Arizona, Bill, they look good. They look good. They have a monster game coming up this weekend against Texas Tech. The storyline before the year, as I'm sure you were aware, defense. They had this renaissance a year ago. It felt to a degree like they were going to have to reboot all or part of that in 2026. Thus far, they're actually running a smidge better than they were a year ago on the defensive side of the ball. Their only loss really was in the second half of the BYU game earlier this year. They've also got Utah on the schedule. How much credence should we put in the idea, the possibility of Arizona getting to that Big 12 title game at this point, based on what you see from a numbers standpoint?
00:33:26
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, luckily, we don't have to theorize very much. If they win at Texas Tech, then we know exactly how much credence we should be giving to them. Not that I have any idea what Texas Tech's going to respond like after last week, but that does feel– I mean, that's a very clear winner's very much in it kind of game, and I do think Arizona– is going to give themselves a chance. It wasn't that they beat Iowa State last week. Iowa State can't score against good teams. But number one, scoring 39 or whatever is kind of impressive. And they're just so well-rounded. They're like, what, 17th in yards per play on offense, 20th on defense, 23rd in points per drive, 21st on defense. There's just a strange lack of weaknesses here. And that allows them a lot of flexibility. They can beat teams in a lot of ways. You think about Texas Tech playing pretty good defense still. that big run aside at the end of the game, well, okay, well, we'll just shut them down and beat them near 20 to 14. Or if it was the opposite, well, we'll just go win 45, 41. Like they, they have reason to be confident and, you know, maybe winning at Lubbock's too much, but I do think they're going to have a chance.
00:34:30
Speaker 2: So not to just single out Arizona here, but Arizona is one of those teams, I believe, when you look at the defenses that they've played. It's not the biggest indication of what exactly the ceiling of their offense can be, but look, they've performed, and you've made mention of this over the years, they've performed like an excellent team should against the quality of opponents that they've played. When you look around the sport with these bloated conferences, and we kind of had this conversation with, I think it was Texas A & M last year, with some of the teams they played, where you just there's a certain amount of schedule luck where you don't have the sample size against quality opponents. When you look around the schedule this year, and we brought this up on Twitter or X the Everything app last week, Wake Forest has had a terrific season, is a terrific team, but to what degree, we don't know because of the defense's face, which are obviously affected by playing this Wake Forest offense. Who are the teams you feel like you know the least about because of opponents and perhaps because of opponent... offense, opponent, defense on average.
00:35:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, Wake's a good one. I mean, Texas Tech's a good one. They got the luckiest schedule of all time in the Big 12. No BYU, no Utah. I thought no Kansas State was going to be an issue. Turns out that would have been a lovely game.
00:35:47
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:35:49
Speaker 1: But, you know, they get Houston at home. They get Arizona at home. They miss Utah, BYU. They play at Oklahoma State, but it is still– a situation where I said their defense is doing well, but they played two top 30 offenses. They gave up 26 and 37 points. So, you know, maybe their defense is merely solid. Their offense hasn't played anybody good yet, and it's still just 57th in points per drive. So I do think that's probably– maybe we do know about Texas Tech. It's just, you know, they're still kind of cruising along here at 6-1 despite– You know, we'll learn. There are some good offenses and defenses on the schedule down the stretch. Just not BYU or Utah. Let's see. Besides them.
00:36:32
Speaker 2: Well, like one of the things I noticed, like the best quarterback, we mentioned this on Saturday night, the best quarterback UCLA may face.
00:36:39
Speaker 3: All season long could be Ryan Brown.
00:36:45
Speaker 1: Who has been better this year?
00:36:46
Speaker 2: Totally good.
00:36:47
Speaker 1: Point taken. I mean, Miami. Miami. Sure. At this point, Mensah, Tony is just about the best security blanket in this sport. But then also, the best offense they've played ranks 29th in SP Plus right now, and they gave up 20 points to Wake. They gave up 39 points to, or 35 points to number 32 offense, Florida State. They have yet to play a top 20 defense. They've throttled number 25 Clemson, it must be said. But I am kind of concerned about Miami's defense. I just can't tell how concerned yet because I haven't played anybody good. They'll play Notre Dame's offense in a couple weeks and that'll tell us a good amount. So, yeah, I mean, it is kind of, We know a lot about a lot of teams and we know nothing about a lot of teams. And, you know, we'll see. I'm done. But it is funny, though. I'm ready to see Miami play big games. I'm tired of Texas. I don't want to watch any more Texas games this year. I've seen enough Texas already. So I am looking forward to games like Miami Notre Dame where the teams we need playing each other are playing each other.
00:37:54
Speaker 2: Does this help or hurt your anticipation for some of the bigger games? Obviously we've got a big week in a couple of weeks or what we perceive to be a big week. Like, do you like knowing that a game is definitely huge or is there something fun to you about like, the game is probably huge. I can't wait to see how this team performs once they finally play their first, you know, very strong opponent. Like, are you in the camp of like, I love knowing that we have this class of teams that we know a lot about. Or is the mystery doing something for you at this point?
00:38:28
Speaker 1: I do love mystery. I do love like not knowing, just feeling like something could be really big and not really knowing. Like Wake Forest really genuinely, the way they've been playing the last month, really might be one of the 10 best teams in college football right now. Sure, why not? And the fact that we allow mystery to grow in that regard is kind of fun. If everybody was playing NFL type schedules, then, you know, Everybody's six and three right now, and we kind of know everybody's strengths and weaknesses. The mystery is good, I think.
00:38:57
Speaker 3: Bill, there's a saying that good teams win, great teams cover. To that end, Indiana is 137th in... covering the point spread right now. They only lost one game by literal inches to Ohio State. We ranked them ninth in our latest AP Top 25 ballot. We did hear from people on that. Dan, we were tied for the lowest on Indiana. It was us and one other guy. But look, the point stands. Make whatever you want of the AP Top 25, whatever you want of the point spread. Indiana is 3-1 against the better teams on their schedule. All four of those games were one-score games. I follow the Crimson Cast. Big Indiana podcast. They're talking specifically about yards per drive going in the wrong direction over the last couple of weeks. Are your numbers picking up any actual warning signs on the Indiana front? Oh, yeah. Or has the offense been more a function of playing good defenses and maybe Josh Hoover not being 100 percent?
00:40:02
Speaker 1: Josh Hoover not being 100% is a humongous deal. Like he couldn't throw an accurate pass the other day. And I was kind of laughing by the second quarter when they had like three points. Everything they were doing was basically screaming, yeah, we're prepared to win this game 3-0. We don't think Michigan's going to score. They got the bonus field goal that turned out to come in handy when Hoover threw a pick and all that. But their offense, so we can say, you know, if you underachieve against projections against SP Plus in the first month of the season, maybe you were just overrated. So you're going to fall down to kind of your normal level. And then from that point forward, it should have a decent read on you eventually. So the fact that they overachieved first four games of the year, maybe that just means they weren't a top three team, maybe more like top six or whatever. Rutgers, they hit all their marks. But the last three games, now that they had this big sample, and even before Hoover started getting hurt, they underachieved on offense by 11 points against Nebraska. 11 points against Ohio State and 13 points against Michigan.
00:41:01
Speaker 3: Defense is great.
00:41:02
Speaker 1: Defense has obviously proven itself, although played one good offense. But still, they've still proved themselves against Ohio State even before saying got hurt. But the offense just isn't adding up. They can run the ball reasonably well, but Hoover was already– coming up big in specific moments and not really against Nebraska. And then he gets hurt and he can't throw anything against Michigan. So this Minnesota game, like it's a home and I'm not sure Minnesota can score more than 10. So like they should survive it. But also if, if Hoover's, if Hoover still can't throw and they don't trust the backup enough to do a better job that they're still in danger to get to the bye week there.
00:41:43
Speaker 3: Yeah. And further on Indiana, I'm looking at the remaining schedule as we get into the November, right? So Minnesota this week, as you said, we'll see how that goes. But then after their bye week, they close out USC at home on the road at Washington at home against Purdue. It doesn't feel on the surface to me like. Any of those three teams are well-rounded enough to beat Indiana right now, just given the strength of Indiana's defense. I could be wrong. I've been wrong a thousand times already this season. But it begs repeating that even though there maybe are some warning signs, I'm not seeing a whole lot here that might be able to take advantage of that. And we're probably, at time of recording, looking at an 11-1 Indiana at season's end.
00:42:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're projected favorites of at least 12 points in every remaining game. 62% chance of getting to 11-1. They're in as good a shape as anybody, but as we're trying to figure out who's actually title good, at this exact moment in time, they're not title good, and they need Hoover to both improve and get healthy, and we'll see.
00:42:45
Speaker 3: Staying in the Big Ten for a second, Wisconsin. Wisconsin's a really interesting case. Wisconsin is now ranked... Wisconsin is 5-2. Wisconsin has gotten better on both sides of the football so far this season. The offense is still a work in progress, but defensively, they've definitely held their level, if not gotten a little bit better. What does the rest of the season look like for you, just from a Wisconsin standpoint? A super interesting team. They've got the game this week on the road at Iowa. They close out the year with four games lost. Rutgers at Maryland, at Purdue, home against Minnesota, which to the earlier point about Indiana, look like teams that this version of Wisconsin could beat. So I don't want to get too far out over my skis and start talking 10-2 Wisconsin, but we at least need to have that conversation given what is remaining on the schedule.
00:43:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, no top 40 offenses left. They just obliterated one of the two good offenses they've faced this season. The other one, Notre Dame's obviously eventually rolled up some points. But yeah, I mean, you're looking at three games where they're absolutely going to have an advantage, Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue. Although Purdue is... I don't know.
00:43:59
Speaker 3: They're feisty.
00:44:00
Speaker 1: At least they are feisty. But they're going to they have advantages there. And then it's two rock fights, Iowa and Minnesota. And I think where they're still kind of on the borderline of eight and four, nine and three, like ten and two is not likely, but it's on the table. There's not an unwinnable game for sure. And somebody from the Big Ten has to win games. So, you know, could be them.
00:44:21
Speaker 2: You mentioned earlier that you were not fully sold on Kentucky keeping this up. Not that you haven't been impressed by Kentucky, not that Kentucky hasn't done a great job, but you weren't sold on this continuing in some fashion. Yeah, they are doing what. Turnaround teams do, you know, when you look over the years, that improving their defense, stopping big plays, really staying clean turnover-wise, staying ahead of schedule on offense, even if there isn't a ton of explosion on offense, even if the defense overall isn't great. Some of the markers on, like, third downs are pretty terrible for Kentucky. My question to you is, why?
00:44:59
Speaker 1: Why?
00:45:01
Speaker 2: What if they are just good enough and that gets them to a crazy level? Like, what has you questioning Kentucky's ability to keep this up?
00:45:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, the fact that they lose like every third down and still win every close game, that's still kind of blowing my mind a little bit. Degree of difficulty, yeah. Lots of degree of difficulty, but I think the degree of difficulty is the point. I mean, this is my least favorite type of story to talk about in late October because inevitably... I'm really enjoying watching them win a bunch of close games. Inevitably, my numbers don't like them very much. And therefore, inevitably, their fans are screaming at me nonstop on social, which I was like, shut up. I'm trying to enjoy your team. Yeah. But I mean, it is what it is. They are after last week, after actually looking the part against Vanderbilt, it must be said like they actually didn't leave it to the last minute. And Vanderbilt, I think, was even close to It was even closer than it should have been. I think that should have been an even bigger victory. They did jump finally, but they're still only at 32nd in SP +. And you just kind of look at the basic numbers, you see why. 46th in points per drive, 89th in points allowed per drive. That's not, even when you adjust for difficulty, that's not a top 10 team. And so the fact that they finished the year at number 11 in SP +, home against 31, at number 18 at home against 26, I mean, you win all those games, hallie out, power to you. It's going to be really fun. But that's, like right now, SP +, says 9-3 is the most likely outcome with 8-4 the second most likely. So... Yeah, it's a story that might end, but also a fan base that hasn't had anything to enjoy the last couple of years is really enjoying their team and showing out. So again, I don't want to shoot it down. I just don't think it's going to last.
00:46:44
Speaker 2: Is there a team on the other side of that, that the numbers like how they're performing, the wins and losses still aren't necessarily there, and if you can exclude teams... like Oregon, who don't have a quarterback, who don't have.
00:46:56
Speaker 1: An offensive coordinator. That was going to be my answer just to piss you off.
00:46:59
Speaker 2: Who can't finish drives, who have removed all traces of hope from all of their fans' systems. Is there a team to you that is just like, look, they're not playing poorly. They just need to do like two and a half more things to finish games. And I know I'm putting you on the spot, but that's what we do. And you have the spot.
00:47:20
Speaker 1: Well, as of two weeks ago, my answer would have been LSU. And they've begun looking the part incredibly. So they're up to fourth now in SP Plus, despite the two losses. And I think their schedule in November is rugged, but they're going to have a chance to win out or get to the playoff at 9-3. Because we're going to have some 9-3 playoff teams this year with the way everything's gone. Besides that, you just look at the records in the SP Plus rankings. Well, you do pick out Oregon pretty quick because SP Plus loves their defense, apparently. Defense has been strong. Yeah, and gotten definitively improved since that Oklahoma State game. Definitely. It's been perfectly fine. But yeah, the offense is going to need to... do something a little different, which they're obviously trying now to do.
00:48:06
Speaker 2: By the way, by the way, this, we don't need to spend that much time on Oregon. This could be applicable to any team. And it was last year with LSU. It's not terrible if you free fall because you don't have to coach meaningful games while hiring new coaches, while scouring the portal, you get to fully focus on writing whatever ship you're trying to write.
00:48:26
Speaker 3: That's right.
00:48:26
Speaker 1: Get, get yourself healthy for next year.
00:48:28
Speaker 3: Yes.
00:48:28
Speaker 1: Um, Here's one that even their own fans aren't going to believe either. Nebraska is still 15th in SP Plus, 5-2. Objective favorite in four or five games left. Ohio State potentially with a who-the-heck-knows-about-their-quarterback situation in mid-November. But to get them at home... at Iowa is going to be rough, obviously, in ways that playing in Iowa is usually rough for Nebraska. But I mean, basically playing two on paper top level teams in Indiana and Oregon and losing by three to both. Granted, that's a massively missed opportunity. And I know Nebraska fans happen to watch this. I was just doing Portland radio and somebody pointed this out. Nebraska fans having to watch Scott Frost celebrate on Saturday on their bye week after they still couldn't figure out a way to beat Oregon with Oregon being in the shape they're in. Probably didn't feel all that great. But regardless, on paper, they're still a very good team that's lost to two very good teams by small margins. And at any moment, if they remember how to win close games reliably and actually can talk themselves into like look and look in the mirror and say, you're good, you're good and you can do this. Then they tend to is absolutely on the table for Nebraska.
00:49:42
Speaker 2: The middle of the Big 12 is actually kind of fascinating. We've got Baylor, who just fired their head coach. Cincinnati, who just beat the defending champs in like a big emotional fun spot for the Bearcats. ASU, which is likely going to struggle, but here and there they have some fun. UCF, still missing their starting quarterback, kind of have juice every week, it seems. Same for West Virginia. I mean, they have their starting quarterback and absolutely have offensive juice. What do you make of the upside of a very strange and turbulent middle of the Big 12? I don't have Houston in there. I think they're still in the upper tier to me. What do you make of the juice to make noise amongst those teams?
00:50:29
Speaker 1: I mean, like, my numbers don't like West Virginia at all, but they're winning weird close games, and that's all I want from a Rich Rod West Virginia team. Totally. So, hell yeah. No, I mean, it's– Kansas, I think, still has a little bit of juice.
00:50:41
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:50:42
Speaker 1: They– I mean, Isaiah Marshall is the most unreliable quarterback imaginable, but he'll still make random plays amidst the– hilariously ridiculous throws, and their defense is salty, and they can apparently block every other kick, as Missouri learned, and then Baylor learned constantly the other day. So, I mean, yeah, the fact that Kansas is 3-4, kind of solidly borderline first and second quartile in their conference, and they have a lot to offer. I think it was last week here that I kind of randomly had the... epiphany that oh my god i think the big 12 might be better than the big 10 and now i've seen a lot more people saying it this week and i've started to believe it a little bit more at least with the big 10 qb situation yeah um and i think this is why the depth is really really fun colorado's hopeless which well i say that they almost beat utah two weeks ago right um so no i mean i think they're you know with iowa state and colorado are your worst teams you got a really fun conference and um yeah granted i don't need to watch kansas state the rest of the year they seem extremely not fun but um yeah since he's fun ucf's fun kansas is really fun west virginia is really really fun that's that's great that's a great league.
00:51:58
Speaker 2: What's what is utah's upside in this moment obviously we had questions going in about their schedule and after the colorado performance and they pull out a very impressive win against houston there's a ton to love about devin dampier and how much he can just grab yardage wise. And that's a quality Houston team, even if the past defense hasn't been great this year. What is their upshot? What is their ceiling in your mind?
00:52:23
Speaker 1: It is. That's a hard one to figure out. Cause I mean, they are in a lot of ways, the like exact Utah team we've gotten used to through the years where they absolutely win efficiency and they absolutely lose big plays. Like just kind of glancing at, you know, I do a lot in my writing and just separated things out into success rate for efficiency. And then just, Yards per successful play for explosiveness, because it's pretty easy to explain. Success rate, they're 11th on offense and 10th on defense. Yards per successful play, they're 46th on offense and 110th on defense. So basically, you know, they're going to hit a lot of singles and doubles and lose to a team that hits home runs more or less. And it feels like that means their upside isn't quite as high as as other teams in the top 10. But anytime one of those teams doesn't play well enough or doesn't take advantage of opportunities, we know their floor is really high and they can do some damage. Say floor high, and they almost lost to Colorado a week ago, so whatever. But it's a stupid season, and I think their floor is as high as anybody's.
00:53:23
Speaker 3: Bill, what's the craziest thing in your mind that could happen in the SEC?
00:53:29
Speaker 1: I think we've circled, we've had so much crazy that we've circled around to near normalcy at this point. Like, I think Georgia LSU is probably the SEC title game we end up getting. But, I mean, as long as Kentucky's doing what they're doing, you know, that's... that's pretty damn weird, especially if they continue to play like a top 30 level and do it instead of like just transitioning into being something elite. So that's out there. And the fact that we have so many freaking teams with one or two losses right now won't take that many more funky bounces to have a really funky title game and a playoff picture where The SEC champion is 10-3, and a whole bunch of the best teams we thought were going to be the best are 8-4, and we have absolutely no idea who's getting into the playoffs. So a few different ways to generate chaos at the moment. We don't have a UCLA Northwestern title game on the docket like we do in the Big Ten, but it's still awfully weird, and it's been weird. The fact that everybody's lost as much as they have already is weird, so we're deep in chaos.
00:54:33
Speaker 3: The team that I'm most interested in And in this moment is South Carolina. Because they had three straight losses earlier in the year. It felt like things were coming off the swivel a bit. Obviously a pretty big win this past weekend over Tennessee at home. Their remaining schedule features a big game on the road this weekend against Oklahoma, which they are not projected to win, but could win. It wouldn't take that much imagination to envision them winning. They've got Texas A & M at home. A & M' s been a certifiable mess. Arkansas on the road. They've got Georgia at home second to last week of the year. It needs no repeating that that's going to be a big game. And then they close out the season on the road at Clemson. Again, I'm not going to bat here for 9-3. I am going to bat for the fact that despite an early losing streak for South Carolina, if they can get their stuff together, Bill... they very much can impact what this SEC looks like the remainder of the way.
00:55:36
Speaker 1: I mean, this is the most Shane Beamer thing ever. Oh, yeah. To look like crap as long as possible and then put together a hot streak that builds buzz again around your program before looking like crap again later. And it's an even-numbered year when he tends to rip off some stupid winning streak that changes all perceptions. Yeah, I don't think we're talking about a 93 team, but they can absolutely host game day in Week 12 against Georgia and build that level of buzz before... probably losing that game. And this is I mean, this is what you get when your two best players are guaranteed to be the most like the, the, the best athletes on the field, but you've got a whole bunch of guys you can't count on. And even those great athletes aren't always great. And so you can randomly bite teams that sellers touchdown was the most sellers play of all time.
00:56:24
Speaker 3: Yes. Uh, at the end of that game, I don't understand the physics of that.
00:56:27
Speaker 1: No, it doesn't. I've never been strong enough to do anything, even like one 10th of that. So I don't, I definitely don't understand the physics behind it, but, um, They are a scary team to see on your schedule, even if you know you'll probably handle them, because at any moment, their three athletes can all do something spectacular, and you're losing, and you can't figure out how.
00:56:49
Speaker 3: What did you see this past weekend from the G6 teams that either influenced or maybe did not influence your opinions that you spoke to a week ago? Yeah. TL, DR, who impressed you, who didn't impress you this past weekend, and does it affect at.
00:57:08
Speaker 1: All what their playoff outlook looks like? I mean, New Mexico was the exact version of New Mexico we've seen for most of the year, I guess, really, in that the offense can do things but isn't going to score just a ton against a competent defense, and that defense might just win the game by itself. The defense almost beat Oklahoma by itself. Um, it'll give itself a chance, by the way, it hit me earlier today. Like, do you think we could discuss a merger between Oregon state and New Mexico? Just for, just for a few games.
00:57:36
Speaker 2: Oh, we've done these shows where it's just like these half teams that just need to somehow get it all together.
00:57:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, because Oregon State's offense and New Mexico's defense could win the national title this year, I'm convinced. Like, that's just a preposterous team. But regardless, I am kind of, it did back up that New Mexico's kind of ready for the moment. Now, I mean, they got a, Played two road games in a row now. They certainly didn't look good for a half against Hawaii. So their challenges aren't over. And then they'll probably have to beat North Dakota State or UNLV again at the end of the year after hosting UNLV in a couple of weeks. So they're definitely not to the finish line. But yeah, I mean, it is funny. All the G6 teams are my babies and I want them all to make the playoff. But at this point, I've just decided like. but you've had your turn, Boise. You've had your turn, James Madison. I need either New Mexico or Oregon state in the playoff this year. Fair enough. After Miami, who is excellent? I'm still not convinced about Miami's defense.
00:58:36
Speaker 2: So, you know, there's that, um, who, who is closest after Miami? Miami obviously has not, not work to do, but you know, it's, we, we cannot wait to see what Miami looks like, obviously against Notre Dame in a couple of weeks. Um, Who has the fewest questions, I guess, after Miami?
00:58:54
Speaker 1: I still think it's Georgia by far.
00:58:56
Speaker 3: Okay.
00:58:57
Speaker 1: I mean, their biggest problem right now is they can't stop fumbling, which is bad, but also sure seems more fixable than a lot of other teams' problems. So I think the fact that they're making big plays on offense now, they still have Stockton, who made mistakes against Auburn unquestionably, but I still think you'll take him as an efficiency machine in a tight game. Florida this weekend, at Ole Miss, Missouri after that, then South Carolina, of course. None of this is easy. but I still, just from pure trust levels, I wrote a piece, my Sunday recap was all about who you can trust. Didn't talk about Georgia since they had a bye week, but I think I can, I still trust Georgia more than anybody.
00:59:42
Speaker 2: Have there been any other middles of conferences? We mentioned the sort of the juiciness potential of the middle of the Big 12, and I apologize for using the term juiciness potential. But when you look at the middle parts of other conferences, major, mid-major, whatever, Where do you feel like there is the most volatility heading into the last month of the season?
01:00:04
Speaker 1: Well, 60% of the American Conference's conference games so far have been decided by one score. So the conference is a middle at the moment. And so I think that has to be the answer. Memphis is still first in terms of SP +, but they... They Memphis in a couple of weeks ago. And so now their backs are a little bit against the wall. UTSA is probably the favorite, but their defense isn't very good. Their offense has to carry a lot of weight. Like you see USF doesn't score, but their defense is pretty good. So they're still in the mix. Like this is obviously you probably don't get to the finish line with a playoff contender here. But in terms of just mess, this is easily like Tulsa plays in nothing but spectacular games. They're sitting four and four in the middle. Like this is by far, I think, the most fun conference to follow at the moment.
01:00:55
Speaker 2: The obvious answer for my next question is Kentucky, because we like to throw around the phrase winning is a skill, right? That maybe not all of the underlying numbers point to wins like Kentucky's moments against LSU and South Carolina. But in terms of who is able to finish games, in terms of who is able to you know, come back in terms of who is able to outperform some of their performances because they can manage timeouts because they can drive down the field quickly when they need to drive down the field because they can make kicks because, you know, the, the sort of the, the check boxes of your ideal coach or coaching staff, who is, who is pulling those victories from the jaws of defeat more often than perhaps numbers suggest they should.
01:01:40
Speaker 1: BYU would have been the answer had they pulled another one out the other day because they have been on a nice run of just kind of grind and then win it at the end. Let's see. Yeah, Kentucky. This is interesting. I mean, New Mexico kind of. Let's do this. Let me just.
01:02:00
Speaker 2: What stat are you looking at to indicate this?
01:02:03
Speaker 1: Uh, well that's right now I'm going to basically look at who's in the top 40 on offense, defense and special teams. Oh, okay. SB plus. So, and then let's see. So we got 40 there. This is nothing makes for better. Uh, I love this, the podcast and then looking at spreadsheets behind the scenes for here, 40 and special teams. Cause I was going to say SMU until you mentioned special teams, their special teams kind of stinks. Right. Um, Well, there's one team in the top 40 in offense, defense, and special teams. No, I did something wrong. Damn. We're going to say we'll still go with SMU. I think they spend a lot of their time underachieving in a given game and then still end up winning most of the time. And I think what they did in the second half against Cal last week really kind of caught my eye in terms of just like, okay, enough, enough. Pulled out the Florida State game, yeah. Yeah, I think they're pretty trustworthy, even though their offense always spends about half the game making you wonder what the hell they're doing. So they have every chance of beating Wake Forest and ending up in the ACC title game.
01:03:17
Speaker 3: Bill Connolly is one of our best friends from... really across the college football media landscape, certainly from ESPN.com. We have greatly enjoyed this Bill Tober with you. I'm going to get you out of here on this, okay?
01:03:30
Speaker 1: U.S. men's soccer. Backups.
01:03:33
Speaker 2: They're all under 16. Who do you like?
01:03:35
Speaker 3: Don't get me started. Not yet. There will be a time and place to bring Bill back, probably in the offseason, to talk about that.
01:03:41
Speaker 1: Yes.
01:03:43
Speaker 3: Bill Connolly.
01:03:44
Speaker 1: Yes.
01:03:44
Speaker 3: You love your spreadsheets. Your spreadsheets are a gospel for those of us who are nerds about college football in the manner that you are. Having looked at thus far the results this season, I know you make tweaks every offseason. Is there something that this season has given you a portal into and the light bulbs went off in the shower, in the middle of the night, staring at the ceiling, wherever, whenever, where you were like, aha, this is something I need to change. This is something I need to add before 2027.
01:04:16
Speaker 1: This is a horrible answer that is going to be very disappointing. I mean, number one, it's performing well on average still, and therefore, it's pretty good. Last week was probably its worst week of the season, and it was a pretty bad week. But I noticed after these last couple of chaos weeks, I started fiddling with the knobs a little bit and seeing what could have been the most optimal version of projections this year.
01:04:39
Speaker 3: Yeah.
01:04:41
Speaker 1: And the answer was very clearly, I need to slow down phasing out preseason projections, which everybody hates. But it would have made a massive difference the last two weeks if I just kind of slowed that down a little bit. And it makes perfect sense when you think about it. When nobody's reliable and when nobody's allowed to play two straight good games, Then and everything's so unstable, then you kind of lean on just like the basics, like who's most trustworthy. Well, probably the teams that have been good before and have all the talent components and experience. So therefore, I dialed that knob a little bit upward. I didn't even wait till the offseason. I just dialed a little bit up. And that, of course, made Oregon stay in the top 15. Of course. And it maddeningly dropped Oregon State a little bit despite them being on a bye week, which I hated. But I felt confident enough in that one and in the logic behind that one that I didn't even wait until the offseason. So we'll see. In the offseason, I'll kind of try to optimize everything and see because I always do that. But that was one where this year's data just doesn't stand on its own very well. And maybe we need a little help from the old priors there.
01:05:51
Speaker 3: Bill Connolly, ESPN.com. It is always a pleasure. We will absolutely be speaking with you at some point very, very soon. Until then, make sure you get some sleep, get rested up, stay hydrated. We've got a long way to go. Absolutely. All right, Dan, there you go. Bill Toberfest comes to a fantastic conclusion. Bill Connolly, ESPN.com. As I said, one of our best friends in the industry. Go and follow him. Go and buy his book. Go and read his stuff out at ESPN.com. It's been a pleasure to have him with us these last couple of Mondays in October, man. He makes us smarter.
01:06:27
Speaker 1: Always.
01:06:27
Speaker 2: And we definitely alluded to the fact that he said certain things during that interview before that interview started. The interview happened before that part. Let's be clear. Let's be honest. Let's be transparent. But Bill's the best. Obviously, Bill is Terrific, which is why we have him on as often as we can. Happy to be a small part of Bill Toberfest.
01:06:48
Speaker 3: We need to come up with some sort of blank Vember now as we go into November.
01:06:54
Speaker 2: I don't think it doesn't need to be the start of Vember. It could be Nova something.
01:06:59
Speaker 3: Yeah.
01:06:59
Speaker 1: Right.
01:07:00
Speaker 3: Yeah.
01:07:00
Speaker 2: But I whose name rhyme. So my brain immediately goes to Brando Vember. As in Tim Brandovember.
01:07:09
Speaker 3: No, I don't want to do that.
01:07:10
Speaker 1: You don't want to get on board with that? I don't want to do that.
01:07:12
Speaker 3: No, don't make me do that.
01:07:13
Speaker 1: Hollyrovember.
01:07:15
Speaker 2: I'm trying to think of people that would be college football humans that could come on. Well, we can workshop it a little bit.
01:07:21
Speaker 3: We're going to have to workshop that, but we'll come up with something, whether it's the full month, part of the month. Yeah, we're not going to be short on storylines throughout the month of November. This is the final week in October. I was taking a look earlier at some of the games that We're going to have in front of us, specifically because I was putting together Run the Board for this coming weekend. Run the Board for this coming weekend looks something like Wisconsin at Iowa, Arizona at Texas Tech, which is going to be one of the featured games that we talk about. Florida versus Georgia, that neutral site game, the cocktail party, as you know. We've got Utah at Cincinnati, which suddenly is a lot more interesting than it looked a couple weeks ago. We've got South Carolina at Oklahoma, speaking of games that are a little bit more interesting than met the eye a few weeks ago. Ohio State at USC. We've got Oregon State, Fresno State, a late-night game, which I think will be really fun out west. We've also got Miami in potentially an enormous look-ahead spot against North Carolina. And, oh, by the way, your Oregon Ducks, a three-and-a-half-point home favorite, squaring off with Northwestern.
01:08:32
Speaker 2: My Northwestern Wildcats?
01:08:34
Speaker 1: Your Northwestern Wildcats.
01:08:35
Speaker 3: Which team are we claiming here?
01:08:38
Speaker 2: Oh, I'm just all the Wildcats. Arizona, Northwestern, et cetera, et cetera. All right, there's some games. That's, I think, what, an afternoon game, right? It's a 3.30 peacock?
01:08:50
Speaker 3: That is a 3.30 p.m. Eastern game, yes. Okay.
01:08:54
Speaker 2: Are there any other games jumping out to you before I pitch you?
01:08:57
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, SMU Syracuse is interesting. to me. I've got that one here on the slate as well. Army at Memphis is a pretty big game on the G6 level. Two teams with drastically different styles, which should make for an interesting watch. Auburn at Ole Miss. I think is interesting for a whole multitude of reasons. So yeah, there, I mean, look, I could go right down the list of games that I think are really interesting. Those are just the 12 that are on run the board this coming week. But truly as I'm going through this, there's, you know, probably 12 other odd games that I could really find some real interest, some storylines that I could attach to it and speak to.
01:09:37
Speaker 2: Cole Vember with Cole Kublik.
01:09:40
Speaker 3: Oh, okay, that's not bad.
01:09:41
Speaker 2: That's not bad. Busy man, though. Yo-vember with Yogi Roth.
01:09:47
Speaker 1: Okay.
01:09:48
Speaker 3: Bruce-vember?
01:09:50
Speaker 2: There's no rhyme or reason to that. Just like Bill Toberfest, Octobill, Octobillfest would have been better. I maintain. Here's my personal favorite pitch.
01:10:01
Speaker 1: You ready?
01:10:01
Speaker 3: Yeah.
01:10:02
Speaker 2: No-vem-butt with Jake Butt. That's not bad.
01:10:09
Speaker 1: November.
01:10:10
Speaker 3: November.
01:10:13
Speaker 2: Maybe we'll have him on once. It might be a hard sell to be like, welcome back to November four times.
01:10:19
Speaker 3: The way we could sell it, it would need to get crazy in the Big Ten. It would need to come down to the wire. It would need to be the final Monday in November. And then he would basically be the butt end of November. And given his Big Ten prowess, November would be a perfect fit.
01:10:38
Speaker 2: I think it's stronger than Tom Bren November.
01:10:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, that's way better.
01:10:44
Speaker 1: What about Sean McDunn November? No.
01:10:47
Speaker 3: No?
01:10:48
Speaker 1: I thought that was okay.
01:10:49
Speaker 3: No.
01:10:51
Speaker 1: Lowell Galindo-vember.
01:10:53
Speaker 3: Now you're just naming announcers.
01:10:55
Speaker 2: No, I'm doing the O sound. Announcers with that O sound.
01:10:59
Speaker 3: Right, right.
01:11:00
Speaker 2: George Sedan November actually kind of works.
01:11:04
Speaker 1: George Sedano.
01:11:06
Speaker 3: Really stretching here.
01:11:07
Speaker 2: I've got a whole list in front of me, Ty. We can go as long or as short as you'd like to.
01:11:13
Speaker 3: Here's what we'll do. Here's what we'll do. What we will do is we will open up solidverbal.gmail.com. Okay. We will open up all of the social feeds. Here is what you can do, actually. You can either email in if you've got a blank Vember suggestion, or if you are out there on any of these social platforms, tag the person.
01:11:36
Speaker 1: Oh, I like that.
01:11:36
Speaker 3: Tag the person. So not so much a secret verbal, but this is just a homework assignment for the verbaler. Tag whoever it is that you think would slot in well. Blank Vember.
01:11:48
Speaker 2: I'm going to be legitimately sad if we can't make November a thing.
01:11:52
Speaker 3: That is good. We could get Jake Butt. I think we can get Jake Butt. For sure. Definitely get Jake Butt at some point.
01:11:58
Speaker 1: Ben DeNuvember. Who?
01:12:02
Speaker 2: Because Ben DeNucci is calling games. I mean.
01:12:08
Speaker 3: There's a lot out there. I think you're trying a little too hard. Just go with a one syllable thing.
01:12:12
Speaker 1: There's no such thing.
01:12:13
Speaker 3: A one syllable. Danvember. Tivember is better than all of them. It doesn't flow. Something simple. Okay. Keep it simple, stupid. I'm not saying you're stupid, but that's the acronym.
01:12:28
Speaker 1: No, I understand.
01:12:30
Speaker 2: Okay, I peaked with November.
01:12:32
Speaker 3: Understood. Solidverbal at gmail.com is the email. Hit us up on social media. Rate, review, subscribe if you have yet to do so. All that stuff goes a good long way. We will again have another monster week of Run the Board, our pick-em game. 12 games against the spread. Week nine, we do it every week. We're doing it for $ 500 gift cards now. I will unveil what that prize looks like on our Wednesday night preview episode. Big thanks to Mike.
01:13:00
Speaker 1: Go Vemlik.
01:13:03
Speaker 3: I mean, they're getting worse. These are getting these are getting worse. You're better than this. I need you to take five. Go hydrate. Go eat. Go rest and come back to me. OK.
01:13:13
Speaker 1: All right. That's reasonable.
01:13:15
Speaker 3: For my good friend, Dan Rubenstein, for our guest of honor today, all throughout the month. Bill Connolly, go celebrate Bill Toberfest with you and yours. We will be back on Wednesday night. We're going to talk through all things college football week nine. In the meantime, for that guy, Dan, for myself over here, Ty, y'all stay solid.
01:13:34
Speaker 1: Peace.