Decoding the Logistics Managers Index | Dr. Zac Rogers

Why has Warehousing Prices never dropped below 50.0 in the entire 10-year history of the Logistics Managers' Index, and why does a record 20-point inventory forecast split point to middle-mile industrial tightness in 2027?

Dr. Zac Rogers, Associate Professor of Operations and Supply Chain Management at Colorado State University and Lead Author of the monthly Logistics Managers' Index (LMI), joins Justin Smith, SIOR, on Industrial Insights. Published in partnership with Arizona State University, Colorado State University, the University of Rochester, Rutgers University, Florida Atlantic University, the University of Nevada, Reno, and CSCMP, the LMI crowdsources 150 to 200 director-level and C-suite supply chain leaders every month across 8 diffusion metrics where 50.0 marks breakeven. In October 2026, the overall LMI climbed to 70.7 (up 13.3 points year-over-year and the second-highest reading since March 2022), propelled by last-minute Q4 retail holiday inventory pulls that lifted Inventory Levels to 66.9 (69.6 Downstream vs. 64.1 Upstream), Inventory Costs to 88.8, and Warehousing Prices to 80.7 as Warehousing Capacity contracted to 43.5.

Zac also explains why October 2026 is not a repeat of the 2022 bullwhip crash, how Port of Los Angeles Signal weekly TEU projections (+21%, +34%, and +74% year-over-year in the first three weeks of November) and Amazon's +$800 million October Prime Day point to an extended peak distribution season, why 12-month future predictions diverge significantly across 7 of 8 LMI metrics (71.8 Upstream vs. 51.8 Downstream on Inventory Levels; 85.4 Upstream vs. 71.4 Downstream on Warehousing Prices), and how hyperscale data center server staging and November 2026 state moratoriums affect middle-mile distribution hubs in West Phoenix (Loop 303), Atlanta, Indianapolis, Dallas, and North Las Vegas.

Resources: All available LMI reports - https://www.the-lmi.com/ October 2026 Logistics Managers' Index Report - https://www.the-lmi.com/october-2026-logistics-managers-index.html

1. 00:00 Introducing Dr. Zac Rogers, Colorado State University & Lead Author of the Logistics Managers' Index (LMI)
2. 01:31 How the 8 LMI components and the 50.0 diffusion threshold work
3. 04:22 Crowdsourcing the supply chain: 150 to 200 monthly director-level and C-suite respondents
4. 08:49 Splitting Large vs. Small respondents: 'JIT for me, not for thee' during tariff front-loading
5. 10:03 Class A vs. Class B real estate and why the LMI started splitting Upstream vs. Downstream in 2018
6. 13:43 How the LMI slices every report: Upstream vs. Downstream, Early vs. Late month, and Large vs. Small
7. 15:26 October 2026 LMI reaches 70.7: Inventory Levels (66.9), Inventory Costs (88.8) & Warehousing Prices (80.7)
8. 19:34 Why October 2026 differs from the 2022 bullwhip crash and how supply chains built geographic resilience
9. 23:16 Why Warehousing Prices (80.7 in October 2026) is the only metric never to contract below 50 in 10 years
10. 25:23 Southern California (-35%) vs. Phoenix (+30%) rent resets and why high-50s is healthy equilibrium
11. 27:02 Port of LA Signal: September 2026 all-time record, November TEU surges (+21% to +74%) & $800M Prime Day growth
12. 31:02 Ten years of supply chain whiplash (2016 to 2026) and why 'normal' years are gone
13. 32:28 2027 predictions: the I-5 traffic analogy and record 10-year Upstream vs. Downstream divergence (71.8 vs. 51.8)
14. 36:06 Why 2026-2027 industrial real estate pressure shifts to the Middle Mile (Phoenix Loop 303, Atlanta, Indy, Dallas & North Las Vegas)
15. 37:47 Data centers leasing short-term middle-mile warehouses for air-freighted servers and November 2026 state moratoriums
16. 40:48 When the 500-pound gorillas slow down: why industrial real estate benefits from tenant diversification
17. 42:58 Where to read a full year of free LMI reports and join the monthly survey at the-lmi.com

Recorded November 6, 2026. Official charts and statistical tables from the October 2026 Logistics Managers' Index report (https://www.the-lmi.com/october-2026-logistics-managers-index.html) and all available LMI reports (https://www.the-lmi.com/), plus USGS/Esri aerial maps of Tempe (ASU/ISM), Port of Los Angeles, Interstate 5 in Irvine, West Phoenix Loop 303, and U.S. middle-mile logistics hubs.

Full transcript, chapters, and video clips: https://smithcre.com/podcast/zac-rogers/