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This week's briefing covers three things landing in the same week that construction leaders need to understand before they plan anything for the rest of the year.
First, interest rates. The European Central Bank raised rates for the second time this year on the tenth of September, to two and a half percent, with markets now pricing more than three further rises over the next twelve months. The US Federal Reserve decides on Wednesday the sixteenth, with traders putting the chance of a rise at around seventy percent. The Bank of England decides the day after, and is expected to hold at three point seven five percent. A hold is not a cut. The scheme that only works if rates come down is still waiting. And the thing pushing rates up, energy, is the same thing pushing material costs up. Construction takes the cause and the cure at the same time.
Then the numbers. UK construction has now shrunk for twenty consecutive months, with housing falling to its weakest reading in August. Eurozone construction has contracted for fifty two months in a row, with France posting its steepest fall since lockdown. In the US, the chief economist at Associated Builders and Contractors said the increase in non-residential spending in July was entirely due to data centres. Take them out and non-residential is at its lowest since September 2023. One type of building is holding up the entire market on both sides of the Atlantic.
Then OpenAI released a model called Astra on the third of September. In the launch demos it opened a 3D modelling tool, built a house, and exported it into a game engine you could walk around in. It rebuilt the Palace of Fine Arts in San Francisco overnight from old drawings and photographs. A post on LinkedIn this week asked the question nobody has a clean answer to yet. If the model can produce the design, what is the architect for? The comments split five ways, and none of them are comfortable.
Drop your answers to this week's questions in the comments of this week's LinkedIn post.
