Prashant Kishor on what works for the BJP and doesn't for the Opposition

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Hi, I am harr Kananda,
and you are listening to three things,
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being an Express News show, with
the looks of our polls just around the
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corner, and the BJP confident about
returning to part Today on the show,
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we are taking a break from our
usual programming and bringing you an insightful conversation
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that recently took place between political strategist
Prashan Kishore and Indian Express Executive Director Ananth
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Goenka, along with National Opinion editor
Wanda da Mishra. In this conversation,
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they discuss why BJP continues to conor
support the extent to which Hindutu helps them,
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and why the opposition has repeatedly failed
to galvanize voters. However, this
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is only part one of the conversation. To listen to part two, you
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can check out our podcast Express Conversation, the link to which is in today's
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episode description. Now here's Ananth Quinka. Hey, wee welcome to the ABDA.
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So lovely to have you. So
I think what I would like to
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start with. So we had a
conversation with with Prashant now two years ago.
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That time it was still the end
of COVID, so he was not
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a physical event was an online I
think was our last online at due and
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he gave this one kind of a
thing which he's very good at, you
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know it just his short statements.
He get this one statement which said the
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success of elections. This is four
ms. He said, it's the message.
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I mean, I hope I get
this right. It's the it's the
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message, the messenger, the machine
and the method, the mechanics, the
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mechanics, the machine and the mechanics. There the four ms that he said.
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If you get three of these four
ms right, that's sort of the
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way to win an election. Still
standing by that, I'm going to throw
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a few more ms into into the
go ahead, Oh please go ahead,
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Good morning everyone. So I'm going
to throw a few more ms into this
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equation for twenty twenty four. Is
it Modi mandir and money versus minorities and
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mander No, it's trying too hard
to put this first side. You're just
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making three ms. It's only one
m. It's Moody. Rest Everything,
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whether it's money or Monday, it's
all subservient to brand Moody. The vote
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is going to be for or against
mister Mody, the person, his ideology,
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his work style, what he has
delivered, has not delivered what people
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think of him, good, bad, whatever. But the vote is it's
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very clear. It's in and around
mister Mody. No Monday also is subservient
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to you. If just go to
the field today and just after this hype
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of Raman there and remove Mody from
the equation, I think most BJP contestants
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would struggle despite these all other ms. Okay, still Mody is the delta.
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So the opposition is therefore always going
to struggle because everything else is tough
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to match. Just that one main
factor of movie law. That's not true.
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Opposition is not going to always struggle. Last time. Also, I
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told you never understandate opposition in India
per se. Opposition parties or formations could
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be weak, but opposition is not
weak in India. Just to give you
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a little longest answer. But your
audience would understand this. A lot of
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us we think that in the last
nine ten years opposition has been weak and
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Mody had morely led BJP had one
way run to the power and control,
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complete control. That's not true.
If you look at data and events closely,
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I with my limited understanding, can
pick at least three significant opportunities which
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opposition had when they could have really
pushed BJP on the background on the back
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foot. The first one start right
early in twenty fifteen. A lot of
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us we have forgotten. The government
was still new, they were still to
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find their feet. There was nothing
much to write home except for early success
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of Jiandhan and a little bit of
ground chatter about Shutch, Barrat and yoga.
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And BJP faced election and in twenty
fifteen they had a massive setback in
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Delhi January twenty fifteen when Amabi Party
won sixty seven out of seventy seats.
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That followed up, the moment came
in November twenty fifteen when the first experiment
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of all opposition parties coming together against
BJP happened successfully in much talked about Bihar
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election. So the moment, the
first moment opposition had against this disposition was
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November twenty fifteen and the following months, when on the back of the Delhi
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defeat, BJP was defeated in Bihar. Government was yet to find its And
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this is the first time when senior
leadership in the last ten years has gone
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public again criticizing or questioning at least
the leadership of the present BJP dispensation.
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But what happened post Behar four months
JP went on to lose Bengal Tami Ladhu
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and all other elections, but they're
saved by Assam. So Assam was one
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thing which allowed them to come back
and then they went on to win Behrh.
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So the first phase for opposition was
November twenty fifteen. They could have
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easily got back into action, but
at that time most of the opposition leader
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would say they were chilling that Modi
has just come sooner he will become unpopular
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and we will have our days back. So that was the first big missed
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opportunity. The second one came immediately
after demonetization. Demonetization led to massive unrest,
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economic unrest, stagnating stagnation on rural
basis, and farm distress and that
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was reflected in the political developments in
twenty eighteen seventeen eighteen, where on the
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back of this demonetization led economic distress, massive social uprising in Gujrat, particularly
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the portal An dolen so much so
that a weakened Congress almost went on to
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defeat BJP. If you remember in
this November December twenty seventeen, BJP lost
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Karnataka, then they went on to
lose three estates Rajasthan, Chatis. So
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the whole year, like twenty fifteen, they didn't have single victory. Between
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January twenty fourteen to May twenty fifteen, almost fifteen months first episode, BJP
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did not get any victories. Somehow
they just managed Assam and which was purely
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mistake of Congress at that time.
They did not handle their internal affairs correctly.
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They went with old god mister Gogoi
who was facing three term incumbency and
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that allowed BJP to come back.
Similarly, in this phase which started post
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demonetization and data will tell you,
economy was in trouble. There was rural
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unrest, farmers distress, rural wages
stagnated and on top of that political setback
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in Gujarat, then Karnataka, Maddest, Rajasthan, everything BJP lost. But
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Congress made major mistakes again because in
what happened in following four months, they
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missed out on taking on two key
allies of end of that time. One
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was ever changing Nitti is Kumar and
Shivshna. If you go dig deeper,
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your political journalists reporters will tell you
that both Sucena and Ntis Kumar were almost
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willing to sift to the ups side. The second mistake the Congress did in
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election going into twenty nineteen, they
did not join the alliance of BSPSP,
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which was a formidable thing in UPE. Only if Congress would have joined that
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alliance, it would have been it
would have made a difference at least to
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another fifteen twenty seats. And so
they allowed this second thing to go.
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And they thought that Chokidar Shore had
they looked Raphael as then next before.
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So this was the second missed opportunity. Mark you every episode. I'm mentioning
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it's a fifteen months period. The
opposition had those first fifteen months in fifteen
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running January, starting January fifteen to
May twenty sixteen. Then they had their
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opportunity starting mid two thousand eighteen till
end two thousand and nine, sorry mid
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twenty seventeen to end twenty eighteen.
And then the third opportunity they got was
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post Bengal in twenty twenty one.
Imagine the COVID Everyone was distressed, anxious.
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They lost the high decibel Bengal election
and as the results were coming,
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the second wave was hitting India and
the first time data will tell you the
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more this personal popularity took a significant
dip almost twenty percentage point. Then what
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did opposition do? Nothing? So
it's not that three oppositions three opposition never
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had these opportunity. But you know, as we say in cricket, you
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have to take your chances, you
have to convert even half chances. Here
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you have three full fifteen twelve to
fifteen months time period when VDP was on
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backfoot, they had no way to
go. You were on top and you
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just simply allowed them to make a
comeback. And if you allow these things
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to do, as in cricket we
say, if you drop three catches of
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a good batsman, he's going to
make you pay. And that is what
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is happening, you know you So
please don't say that BJP has not been
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under presser. Don't say that people
are all in awe with JP. Everyone
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is for them people right from the
day one. Opposition those who are opposed
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to be BJP right for right or
wrong region, they have tried, they
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have given opportunity. Is simply opposition
part hasn't taken it and or the formations
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they have not been able to capitalize
on it. And that's why they're facing
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a situation where to a lot many
of us is looking that there is no
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way out, at least in near
term, in the next five to six
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months time. And you know,
one of the things that the reason opposition
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doesn't get it to act together is
a lot of internal issues in the parties,
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right. I mean, maybe they
aren't internal issues in TMC or in
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you know, the regional parties,
but in Congress. Tell me when Behard
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was one in twenty fifteen, BJP
lost Delhi in January, they lost in
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November twenty fifteen, Bhard the whole
year they did not win a single election.
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BJP senior leadership of that time they
went public. Please check the records.
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They questioned the leadership style and how
VJP now run. Fast forward four
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months. They lost Bengal, they
lost Tamiladu, all four states but for
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Assam. Just imagine if Congress would
have been able to hold back held ground
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in Assam. What did it require
it required Congress at that time to manage
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their internal affairs. Go go versus
heventh a little better? You know again,
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I will give In tennis in a
five hour match, there is one
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point which you miss and you lose. So what if So it's not only
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a function of you know, too
many parties, too many contracts. It
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was at that time I remember distinctly
meeting Congress leadership. I came with mister
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nis Kumar at that time and we
were literally begging them that please, for
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God's sake, put your effort in
Assam. BJP must not win Assam.
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If that happens, then it will
be a major setback. They did not
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put that act together. No,
so it was only for Congress to win
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Assam or to hold Assam. But
so, I think the internal issues is
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one of the reasons that the opposition
is not getting as activates. What I'm
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trying to is what you're also saying
is that it's a leadership leadership failure.
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When you get a chance, you
have to make it count. But as
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simple as this, But aren't there
are also internal issues in the BJP.
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Of course I'm telling that these internal
issues have surfaced, Yes, But internal
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issues will come up on the surface
only when they are on the back foot,
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when you are dominating. Then again, you know, in Delhi for
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instance, right there was a whole
talk with the imported a chief ministerial candidate
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who wasn't from the ranks. There
was a lot of rebellion. There was
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a lot of unhappiness amongst the old
RSS workers the BGP people for supporting a
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new face. These things in politics, descent, rebellion, descent is always
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there. When going is good,
you are able to to manage it better.
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If going is tough, then it's
not going. It's not going to
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be easy to manage because people are
not seeing their future. There is there
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a threat in the BGP internally now, not threat as in terms of sabotage
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any of them. I'm not going
to those words now, but you know
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the way that Shivraji. Nothing until
and unless they are pushed electorally on the
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back foot, no internal dissent will
come to the surface. No matter how
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much you talk and how much merit
is there. Maybe the truth is there,
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what you're saying, But for it
to come on the surface, they
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need to take an electoral setback.
And those when the electoral setback happens,
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then opposition has to be on their
toes. They have to make them count.
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Then only this descent you can benefit
from. Now, what if we
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frame this differently the opposition's predicament.
So what if we say that the opposition
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has not yet found the language to
take on the Hinduism or Hindutwa of the
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BGP. No, let me just
finish. So you know they've tried,
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let's say, four different tacks.
One is this they've said cast mandel.
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Second, they've said secular concerns,
whether it's COVID or it's unemployment or its
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price rise. Third, they've said, uh, you know this alliance math
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that we'll just get together, will
make these mahagad abundance and that will take
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care of it. Fourth is the
me too hindutwa, that I will also
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be Hindu, and I will wear
the jeneul and I will go to the
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temple. So these are the four
tacks that they've tried to take on the
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BJP's hinduta. Do you think the
answer is a fifth one or do you
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think it's a combination of these four. I think we are missing the jungle
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for the wood. I know a
lot of people sitting in Beli. They're
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too obsessed with this idea of Hindutua
Hinduism, which are let's take fact as
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it is. Let's say those who
believe in BJP Hindutua, they are with
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them. But even if they are
with them, let's take that there is
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a lot of people who are fans
of mister Moody or their voter and admirers
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of him. They have the organization, they have the message, missionary everything,
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but put together, they are only
thirty eight. The one hundred people
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who went to vote, only thirty
eight voted for BJP. The remaining sixty
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two, despite the message, despite
Hindutua, despite organization, despite the muscle,
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electoral and financial muscle, they were
still opposed to BJP. Now the
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challenge is how to get the majority
of this sixty two. One way to
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look at is simple. Those who
are i would say, being lazy.
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They're just saying that all who got
sixty two they come together in the room
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and then hence we'll get sixty two. The approach being followed in this India
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thing, it's not going to vote
because you don't only have to bring people
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on the parties together. You also
have to build synergy between them. Synergy
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in terms of narrative, snogy in
terms of their grassroot efforts, Sinogen in
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terms of their campaign on the ground
merely putting people together are not going to
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give you sixty two. So if
I am advising someone who is fighting or
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trying to fight b JP, I
would say that let's keep this thirty two,
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even add two person more to BJPN, say that forty percent are not
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going to vote for us, but
there is still a denominator to play,
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and that denominator is sixty percent.
How do I get sixty percent of that
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sixty percent? That gives me thirty
six thirty percent vote and that will bring
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me in contention. Once you are
seen in reckoning, then you will see
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the cracks emerging out of that thirty
Yet also whether it's supporter Carder or the
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leaders what you mentioned. But unless
you cross thirty, nobody will find courage
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to come and join forces with you. So I wouldn't spend time how to
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counter with Hindutua. I would say, how how do I first galvanized who
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are not convinced with this Hindutua?
Then I will get into an integrity.
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Can I educate more people in enlighten
and take five percent of those who believe
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in BJP's version of Hindutua and those
who are not convinced about their version of
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Hindutua. But there is sixty percent
who are not convinced with them. Why
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are we not working with them?
The Mandir MANDHR didn't take thirty eight You
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don't think MANDA is taking thirty eight
percent to fifty percent. No, certainly
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there was no Monthay in twenty nineteen. Now post MANDR that'solidated. My sense
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is Monday is a very big issue
has been made now a big issue.
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It is a big issue, big
chatter point. It will certainly it is.
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It will enthuse BJP carters, supporters, voter and to that extent,
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maybe the polling percentage will be higher. To that extent, probably the descent
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would be crushed within JP ecosystem.
To that extent, probably people will be
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more entused to go and vote.
But it is is it breaking into that
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sixty two? Probably not. I
do not meet many people who after ten
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years observing seeing what BJP is doing
right or wrong, and saying that just
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because Monday is there, now I'm
shifting. I have seen that, to
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my surprise, in the case of
three seventy, there are far more incremental
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vote linked to three seventy than the
Mandy. If you'd go and test the
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data, look at the data,
hard data on the ground. There is
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much more voters, incremental voter that
has come JP Ways Curtsy three seventy then
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the Monday per se Man there is
more like a steroid. It's not the
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drug which is going to give you
good hair. Yeah, it's a steroid,
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definitely, it's an asteroid, but
not it's not going to give you
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an incremental warfair So to get the
sixty of the sixty that you're how you
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phrase it, and just to take
us point forward, a lot of people
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use the word secular. That's the
way we're going to get these Anyone using
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the word secular sometimes I struggle.
I don't find it. No, So
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the word secular actually got a bad
word now because if the opposite uses it,
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you use against them. If the
if the government you opposition is not
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losing because of use or not using
secular, opposition is losing because simply they're
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not up to the task. They
have been sorry to say, they've been
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lazy five years. You make India
lines. Just take this example. You
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made India allans for whatever it is
worth. You met nine months before general
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election. Tell me what prevented all
these wise men and women who were running
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the opposition party and part of India
Lianes to do the same thing two years
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back or immediately after Bengal when chips
were down for VJP, that was the
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time for you to make India Lians. If you believed in this, assume
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that you forgot two years you were
roaming around in the world. You're not
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concerned about that. You thought general
election is very far off. Imagine mister
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Mody would have started the mandil hole
making schedule, would have done two years
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back to match it with these January
things. Now you're crying, follow he
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has planned it so close to the
general election. This that, But he
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has planned two years back. What
did you do two years back? You
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were thinking, okay, we will
do it when the general election comes.
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So I think they have and even
when you made Just take this example,
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when they made first meeting of India
a Lians. If I recall correctly,
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it was in June June twenty twenty
three. June to twenty twenty three,
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India Alliance has not done one single
public meeting. The total number of work
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hours for India Alliance is six days
including tea coffee served six days. You
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tell me if Rahul Gandhi can go
for a europe trip for six days.
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What prevented these India Alliance people to
lock themselves in a place and do this
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six days job and finish it in
June itself? Why are you meeting three
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once in three months? And that
too before they go to the meeting place,
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they book the return ticket. So
every meeting you hear that so and
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so leader went before meeting ended.
Why because they had a flight to catch.
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Just imagine what seriousness but you're showing
and then you and I we are
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analyzing whether to call Hindu Hindu?
Yeah, where is the effort? You
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put an effort? Then we get
into this, what's the cause that brought
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them in that room? It's just
antimody antiv that's the only the causes that
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everyone wants to survive. It's not
antimody. They want to survive. They
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want to hold on to the that's
a consumer facing cause. Now like I
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want to survive. That's why we're
meeting. And what is the what is
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the what is a bid to the
water? Why should the voter? You
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know? What is that one thing? That one a gender point? Like
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you were saying, that puts all
They have not been able to put that
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at the end of point. That's
why they are struggling what should it be?
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But what should it be if it's
not secular? I don't know.
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I'm not I'm luckily I'm not in
a space where I have to advise what
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it should be. But certainly what
is appearing on what is very clear to
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us that they have not been able
to put that narrative with the end that
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point whatever that would have galvanized the
what what? What could it be?
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It's an unemployment? Is it secular? Is it well being? Is it
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well? Is it well being?
A vast majority of Indians that has not
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necessarily improved, not by the as
much as what government claims, and there
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is a there is quite a bit
of unrest on that count. Well being
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in totality. Now, well being
of people in Delhi and well being of
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people in Bihar are two different yardstick
their aspirassents are different. But in general,
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the well being of vast majority of
Indians is not necessarily as as good
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as what government is claiming. And
that should have been the opening for the
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opening. But economy is doing very
well. Not no, no, no,
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I don't think so. So you
look at the data that has come
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yesterday. Sixty percent people who make
less than five thousand rupees are saying that
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economy has worsened. Their economic situation
has worsened. So which data you're talking
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about? A problem? No,
it's not trickled down. Those who are
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rich, twenty five percent of them, even twenty five percent of them also
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have said that economic situation has worsened. But those who are making less than
290
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fifty sixty one percent of those who
are making five thousand or less per month
291
00:23:04.400 --> 00:23:07.440
are saying that in the last ten
years, economic situation has worsened for them.
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So where is that? But see, if there is a field and
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there is paddy that is not going
to fill your stomach, you need to
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harvest that paddy for you and converted
into rice and cook it for yourself to
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eat. So there is a lot
of distrust, a lot of unrest,
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a lot of dissent, but somebody
need to and that's the role of a
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political formation or a party in a
democracy. People on their own they cannot
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do it. They will do it, but if they do it, then
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it will become like a street based
revolution. You said the opposition should have
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started two years ago. Two years
I just give one example. They would
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have done so many other things.
But you have been now doing your bihariatra
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for the last worth seventeen months.
So two years ago, were you not
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advising some of these same leaders of
the opposition? No, I see I'm
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talking to you. Am I advising
you? If we are chatting, will
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you know I'll sit with an and
what Indian Express should be doing. We
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can have a free flowing chat.
But that which has happened, which happens
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so now post Bengal, I have
spoken to a lot of people, including
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Congress great length, much of is
known in the public domain. But after
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that I have realized that they are
not necessarily they want to do it,
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but they want to do it their
way. Unfortunately, I, in my
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limited understanding, there is no way
I could do this something different following the
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same with what they are following.
We can spend some time on how much
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the voter's thought process has changed in
the last ten twelve years. You know,
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since you've been advising until now you're
actually becoming an activist to yourself.
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You know, has anything changed because
you know, we all believe that the
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voter is very with us against us. You're either pro indu, your anti
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00:24:49.640 --> 00:24:52.440
INDO, your pro minority of procast, your pro your cast, You're not
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your cast. So has the voters
what the voter wants with politician? Has
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that changed or it's still the same. That's always been very rotic. See,
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the voters are not separate class.
They're merely reflection of So there's a
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subset of society. So as society
change, the voters will also change.
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If earlier society was consuming information through
inlands and postcards, today in society we
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are consuming more information through Facebook instead
Google, so voters are also consuming The
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voters are not different entdees. If
there is cast in society, then there
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00:25:30.640 --> 00:25:34.759
will be cast in politics. If
there is decline in moral values in society,
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you'll see that happening in politics as
well. So I do not see
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it an a standalone phenomena that voters
are. It's not that an individual would
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have different rules to live my life, and as a voter, I would
329
00:25:48.680 --> 00:25:52.839
have different rules to live by.
If I'm in society people are getting more
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radical, it will also reflect in
the voter's behavior. So but okay,
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So but let lot trend. If
I look at real macro data, I
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don't see a major shift, behavioral
shift or ideological shift in India. Even
333
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for this Hindutua thing and some of
the news that comes that disturbs a lot
334
00:26:11.279 --> 00:26:17.720
of people, it's not new thing. There's Hindu Muslim divide. It's not
335
00:26:17.880 --> 00:26:22.279
something that has started happening in the
last four years or ten years. This
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was always there, almost like more
than a centuries ago. It's just that
337
00:26:25.880 --> 00:26:32.240
some of those elements who otherwise were
not saying these things or doing these things
338
00:26:32.319 --> 00:26:37.039
on the street are finding or getting
emboldened in a supportive environment to come and
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00:26:37.200 --> 00:26:41.799
say those things more loudly on social
media or on these streets. But it
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was always there in society. Some
of the ideological I would say fault lines
341
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between Hindu Muslim always existed leaders of
that time. Sometimes they managed it well,
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sometimes they inflate it. But I
would say that just because VJP is
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in power now Hindus have started hating
Muslims or Muslim Muslims are less trusting Hindus.
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That's not the case. It was
always there. Some elements of them
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are feeling involvedant in a support quote
unquote in it what would be seen as
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a somewhat supportive environment for such utterances
and acts on the street. To what
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degree has society changed by the leader
to and to what degree has the leader
348
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reacted to what society has changed?
So so to some degree every partical leader
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says, now this is how I
so we have to talk about this issue.
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We have to capture that. See
this is to some degree does movie
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is he able to actually move the
needle in how society? Not? Really,
352
00:27:45.319 --> 00:27:48.160
data is not supportive of that.
Look at how much votes. Say,
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00:27:48.960 --> 00:27:52.480
forget about when you from morning to
evening you're watching these Hindi news channels
354
00:27:52.680 --> 00:27:59.119
which are just propagating only one All
the new channels are just propagating one line.
355
00:27:59.640 --> 00:28:03.839
Just look the hard data. BJP
has got thirty eight percent vote in
356
00:28:03.880 --> 00:28:08.039
last election in twenty nineteen. That
was their peak at least still now in
357
00:28:08.160 --> 00:28:17.000
India we have eighty percent Hindus.
Simple mathematics will tell you that thirty eight
358
00:28:17.039 --> 00:28:21.599
out of eighty is telling you that
less than half Hindus are voting for BJP.
359
00:28:22.680 --> 00:28:29.640
So I don't see a titonic shift
in Hindu as a society. As
360
00:28:29.680 --> 00:28:32.640
a community, we are getting more
radical all of a sudden, we have
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started hating Muslims. We want Hindu
raster, no no, no, the
362
00:28:37.599 --> 00:28:44.240
maybe over last thirty forty years of
effort of sunk at societal level has moved
363
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the needle from forty percent Hindus to
forty five percent Indu. It takes a
364
00:28:48.559 --> 00:28:52.920
lot more effort and time than what
we think. The moment it crosses fifty
365
00:28:52.000 --> 00:28:57.119
five percent, make no mistake,
then you I will start paying attention to
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the call of Sanatan Dharma Hindi rast
and all. You need minimum fifty five
367
00:29:02.839 --> 00:29:07.839
to sixty percent Hindus to be following
and buying that idea. Because the moment
368
00:29:07.960 --> 00:29:11.720
you have sixty percent Hindus voting for
BJP, you're talking about forty eight percent
369
00:29:11.759 --> 00:29:17.359
plus vote. But even though it
looks from forty five to fifty five only
370
00:29:17.480 --> 00:29:19.880
ten percent point, it could take
twenty thirty years and if there is a
371
00:29:21.000 --> 00:29:26.720
counter then it could go down again. So it has taken almost fifty years
372
00:29:26.880 --> 00:29:30.720
plus effort on the part of SUNG
to have this level of I would say,
373
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not polarization, but Hindus coming together
under the idea as professed by sun
374
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Hindu ideology. But still they have
not crossed fifty percent. That's so,
375
00:29:45.440 --> 00:29:49.160
and just compare this data from twenty
fourteen to twenty nineteen, BJP got thirty
376
00:29:49.200 --> 00:29:59.640
one percent vote, so roughly about
forty percent of that eighty it had just
377
00:30:00.039 --> 00:30:03.799
five years in needle has moved less
than one percent. So is the other
378
00:30:03.839 --> 00:30:07.440
stuff sticking? It doesn't move as
much as what the TV news channel No
379
00:30:07.559 --> 00:30:08.960
fair, very difficult thing to do. Is the other stuff sticking for the
380
00:30:10.039 --> 00:30:12.079
voters? A voter say that India
we want to vote for to be the
381
00:30:12.119 --> 00:30:15.799
third largest economy in the world.
Does a voter really want that? Does
382
00:30:15.839 --> 00:30:18.960
a voter want this? Ideo?
Global pride? You know? You know
383
00:30:18.079 --> 00:30:22.039
the you know, are these things? You know, there's a voter care
384
00:30:22.039 --> 00:30:25.519
about these things as much as we
believe they do. They do. They
385
00:30:25.559 --> 00:30:30.039
don't necessarily vote because of this,
but they use this as a reason to
386
00:30:30.200 --> 00:30:33.640
justify what they're doing. So there
is a lot of heart shape. Somebody
387
00:30:33.720 --> 00:30:36.559
goes and tells that, you know, how your life has changed. Your
388
00:30:37.000 --> 00:30:38.279
life has not changed, why are
you voting for movie? They say,
389
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Okay, my life has not changed. But at least he has made India
390
00:30:41.079 --> 00:30:48.960
the third largest economy. So these
regions people use more to justify their voting
391
00:30:48.359 --> 00:30:52.599
behavior rather than being guided that,
oh, India is going to be third
392
00:30:52.680 --> 00:30:55.680
largest economy. Till late I was
voting for Communists. Now I'll vote for
393
00:30:55.759 --> 00:30:59.079
BJP. It doesn't work that way. But those who are voting for BDP
394
00:30:59.240 --> 00:31:02.960
they find region to justify why they're
voting for BDP, which itself is a
395
00:31:03.000 --> 00:31:06.319
big thing because if they hold on
to thirty eight percent vote, it's very
396
00:31:06.319 --> 00:31:10.640
difficult to defeat. Since we're talking
of what voters vote for. So this
397
00:31:11.039 --> 00:31:15.839
don't make me the gang all knowing, but I'm just no. Since you're
398
00:31:15.880 --> 00:31:18.920
also now on the street, you're
among the voters. Now, whatever little
399
00:31:18.960 --> 00:31:22.799
I understand, I'm sharing, I
don't know what voters vote for. So
400
00:31:22.960 --> 00:31:27.160
do you think that this whole argument
that the opposition puts forward of democracy and
401
00:31:27.279 --> 00:31:33.079
danger, constitution under siege. So
the EDCBI, the chief ministers being arrested,
402
00:31:33.279 --> 00:31:40.000
opposition leaders being targeted, institutions being
controlled, does that resonate among the
403
00:31:40.079 --> 00:31:45.039
voters? You think it does,
and it doesn't. It does, and
404
00:31:45.200 --> 00:31:49.160
that's why you see very different results
in lok Sabah versus binan Saba. You
405
00:31:49.240 --> 00:31:52.559
go to the village and you talk
to a person that you voted for Mody
406
00:31:52.680 --> 00:31:56.799
in Loaksaba, Why are you voting
for Original Party or somebody else? In
407
00:31:56.920 --> 00:32:04.079
Binan Saba among one of the most
cited regions is we don't want all power
408
00:32:04.319 --> 00:32:08.000
in the hands of one person.
So it democracy, centralization of power,
409
00:32:08.880 --> 00:32:14.519
the fear of one person becoming so
strong. It's you and I may not
410
00:32:14.640 --> 00:32:19.480
appreciate, but the common person understands
this better than you and me. It
411
00:32:19.640 --> 00:32:24.359
doesn't because coming to the second it
does, I said it doesn't because India
412
00:32:24.400 --> 00:32:29.799
has seen this kind of centralization of
power in the past as well. So
413
00:32:29.880 --> 00:32:32.519
some of the BDP supporters of voters, if you go and talk about misuse
414
00:32:32.559 --> 00:32:37.400
of institution, they will immediately give
you an answer. But it has happened
415
00:32:37.440 --> 00:32:40.000
during Indrada time as well. Congress
has also done this and that's why I
416
00:32:40.039 --> 00:32:45.519
said that what Modi is today in
voting terms, in political terms, it's
417
00:32:45.519 --> 00:32:50.039
almost like has become what Indra Gandhi
was in eighties for Congress. So people
418
00:32:50.079 --> 00:32:53.119
who are voting for Indra Gandhi and
that has led to centralization and depends on
419
00:32:53.200 --> 00:32:57.720
that individual. When you have got
that much power, when millions of voters
420
00:32:57.759 --> 00:33:02.440
are voting purely basis who you are, then whatever comes to your mind becomes
421
00:33:02.480 --> 00:33:07.920
the law. India is India in
India. So It's not that if India
422
00:33:07.920 --> 00:33:10.480
would have not seen this phenomena before, the reaction would have been that much
423
00:33:10.640 --> 00:33:15.000
bigger. But people have seen this
kind of centralization of power and use or
424
00:33:15.039 --> 00:33:22.119
misuse. So it's much muted but
not absent. People are aware of it
425
00:33:22.599 --> 00:33:28.480
and it is also backed by data. You look at the Maudi's ability to
426
00:33:28.720 --> 00:33:31.839
transfer vote to get vote for JP
in LOKs of Hoverses Bidanzaba. This is
427
00:33:31.839 --> 00:33:38.640
another data point I always highlight.
Between twenty fourteen to twenty nineteen, BJP's
428
00:33:38.759 --> 00:33:45.759
underperformance in assembly elections was close to
a three percentage point, meaning BJP,
429
00:33:46.279 --> 00:33:52.279
despite mister Mody's campaigning aggressively talking about
double engine and that vote is coming to
430
00:33:52.400 --> 00:33:58.240
me, BJP underperformed by three percentage
point between twenty nineteen to two thousand.
431
00:33:58.319 --> 00:34:04.720
Now the BJP underperformed Assembly is almost
reaching now nine percentage point. So what
432
00:34:05.359 --> 00:34:09.000
does it tell you? Between twenty
fourteen and nineteen, people were blindly voting
433
00:34:09.360 --> 00:34:15.239
not only for Mody also to his
call whoever he wanted people to vote for.
434
00:34:15.679 --> 00:34:19.199
It's going down. It's going down
for two reasons. First, some
435
00:34:19.400 --> 00:34:22.239
of who he asked people to vote
for, they did not deliver in the
436
00:34:22.280 --> 00:34:25.599
eyes of people. Second, his
own charisma is probably has taken a little
437
00:34:25.599 --> 00:34:30.280
bit of hit and third of what
we said people don't want over. They're
438
00:34:30.360 --> 00:34:36.639
seeing the sign of somebody becoming two
strong, so sometimes in their head they
439
00:34:36.639 --> 00:34:42.320
are balancing it. It doesn't appear
that in a you know, obvious but
440
00:34:42.760 --> 00:34:45.039
at a macro level it is the
balancing on the part of the people.
441
00:34:45.079 --> 00:34:49.960
That's how I see it. But
then shouldn't shouldn't BEGP and Modi therefore bank
442
00:34:50.159 --> 00:34:54.679
more on the local leaders like Asunji, like Shivraji, like a Yogigi,
443
00:34:55.480 --> 00:35:00.880
rather than kind of you can't be
sevagh and Ra at the same time,
444
00:35:00.760 --> 00:35:06.880
you decided what you want to be
and and you can't be a Sonia Gandhi
445
00:35:06.920 --> 00:35:09.320
and Ina Gandhi at the same time. In the Ra Gandhi had her own
446
00:35:09.400 --> 00:35:13.960
style and that worked. Sonia Gandhi
had her own style that worked. But
447
00:35:14.280 --> 00:35:16.960
they were for the same party,
same ideology, same set of people.
448
00:35:17.400 --> 00:35:22.119
They had a very distinct approach.
Similarly, what Modi has opted is very
449
00:35:22.159 --> 00:35:28.840
different than what Bad Paige has opted
for Era and Body SI is very different
450
00:35:29.320 --> 00:35:31.639
though they are dealing with the same
ideological space, same motor set and everything,
451
00:35:31.840 --> 00:35:36.639
but it's a different approach. Now
they cannot turn and become a consensus
452
00:35:36.760 --> 00:35:40.360
maker like bad Pay, so they
have to continue doing what they are doing.
453
00:35:40.960 --> 00:35:47.000
And unfortunate or the risky thing about
this is I see the trend only
454
00:35:47.039 --> 00:35:52.480
getting more through. So somebody asked
me who will be the who will replace
455
00:35:52.559 --> 00:35:58.119
Modi or who with the next general, who will succeed Mody? And I
456
00:35:58.159 --> 00:36:00.599
always say nobody knows and no one
should prediction. But one thing is very
457
00:36:00.679 --> 00:36:06.559
clear. Whoever comes after him will
be more hardliner than what mister Mody is.
458
00:36:06.920 --> 00:36:10.280
Would make mister Mody look relative on
relative basis, would make mister Mody
459
00:36:10.360 --> 00:36:15.079
look liberal than what he or she
is going to be given, that's very
460
00:36:15.119 --> 00:36:19.400
clear. Directionally, it's very clear
given the Moody model where he gives no
461
00:36:19.679 --> 00:36:22.679
space or what I wouldn't call it
Mody model. No, so given his
462
00:36:22.840 --> 00:36:27.159
leadership style or approach that you're talking
of, what explains the cult of Yogi,
463
00:36:28.679 --> 00:36:31.000
it's nowhere close to mister Mody.
Don't make don't make this mistake.
464
00:36:31.119 --> 00:36:35.760
It's still an exception. No,
no, it's not an exception. But
465
00:36:35.920 --> 00:36:38.440
for mister Mody, mister Yogi would
not be able to pull off up on
466
00:36:38.519 --> 00:36:45.039
his own. Make no mistake,
mister Mody is still the catch vote catcher.
467
00:36:45.679 --> 00:36:49.440
All others are there, but there's
a huge difference, huge difference.
468
00:36:49.760 --> 00:36:52.519
You take out mister Mody and have
the election tomorrow with mister Yogi alone,
469
00:36:53.000 --> 00:36:55.960
he would find it difficult. Not
yet, he had not reached that stage
470
00:36:57.039 --> 00:37:01.519
yet. He had not. It's
like during bad Pay and is his era
471
00:37:02.559 --> 00:37:07.000
mod he was a very powerful leader, very popular leader in but he needed
472
00:37:07.079 --> 00:37:12.360
badge pay. He needed bad pay
to keep winning. Now he has reached
473
00:37:12.400 --> 00:37:16.079
a stage when he doesn't need necessarily
in that way, mister Youde, he
474
00:37:16.119 --> 00:37:20.360
can win it on his own.
So mister Yogi has not reached a stage
475
00:37:20.400 --> 00:37:23.159
where he can do it without your
mister Mody. At least that's not how
476
00:37:23.199 --> 00:37:25.760
I think. He may not pick
a Peter. That cult is in making.
477
00:37:27.280 --> 00:37:29.960
Yeah, but that cult is in
making. But if if he ever
478
00:37:30.000 --> 00:37:31.880
becomes big. But it is not
about mister Yogi. It is about what
479
00:37:31.960 --> 00:37:37.159
I said earlier. It is about
having a more hardliner as the face and
480
00:37:37.280 --> 00:37:43.000
the leader of the dispensation called b
JP Sun among them is not It's not
481
00:37:43.079 --> 00:37:46.199
persons among the BGP chief ministers.
Yogi stands out because there is nobody.
482
00:37:46.719 --> 00:37:50.519
If you are chief mister of a
state as big as up, you would
483
00:37:50.519 --> 00:37:53.440
stand out any which way. Also
who he is, he would stand out,
484
00:37:54.159 --> 00:37:58.599
the size and who he is,
his background, his pedigree. He
485
00:37:58.679 --> 00:38:01.639
is making a standout. But you
see, all BDP chief ministers are literally
486
00:38:02.079 --> 00:38:08.960
competing to appear more hardliner than their
predecessors. So today the chief Minister or
487
00:38:09.039 --> 00:38:15.440
rayzthan chief minister would appear, would
make conscious effort and would make it obvious
488
00:38:15.519 --> 00:38:21.559
to the world that they are more
hindutuwadi or more closer to the hardliner thought
489
00:38:21.639 --> 00:38:25.360
process of BDP than what their predecessors
were. So what I'm saying it is
490
00:38:25.400 --> 00:38:30.639
a more of a directional call.
Don't be bothered about who the individual is.
491
00:38:30.679 --> 00:38:35.639
Whoever individual comes and takes that position
has no option but to behave that
492
00:38:35.719 --> 00:38:38.840
way, if you're using the word
hardliner and you know that that's correct obviously,
493
00:38:39.320 --> 00:38:43.599
but is there also would you also
conside that there is also some element
494
00:38:43.719 --> 00:38:46.280
of governance that's actually changed. I
mean I would even ask the word,
495
00:38:46.519 --> 00:38:52.440
would you conside that there's an improvement
in governance with these BGP I couple?
496
00:38:52.079 --> 00:38:57.280
Do you that what works for BJP
is not only Hindu Tua. It's a
497
00:38:57.360 --> 00:39:02.280
four layered thing. One is this
ideology base which is Hindutua. Second is
498
00:39:02.360 --> 00:39:07.559
this hypernationalism, neo nationalism, whatever
you want to call it. India has
499
00:39:07.760 --> 00:39:10.519
arrived. India is just stronger,
India is more respected in the world.
500
00:39:10.760 --> 00:39:15.559
We are just about to become Bixi
bara Misuguru. That's a second layer.
501
00:39:15.239 --> 00:39:20.440
The third layer is Labharti what you're
saying, governance, direct delivery of benefits,
502
00:39:21.000 --> 00:39:25.119
whether it's kisan swanidi or chale or
piped water or cylinder or five kg
503
00:39:25.880 --> 00:39:30.079
rasan. These five things have made
a difference. Again, has made a
504
00:39:30.119 --> 00:39:37.039
difference in maintaining the cult. And
then fourth layer is the electoral and the
505
00:39:37.960 --> 00:39:43.519
political infrastructure, the muscle. They
have put this four together. They are
506
00:39:43.559 --> 00:39:46.199
getting thirty eight forty percent vote.
It's not one or the other, but
507
00:39:46.400 --> 00:39:51.440
between four if you have to still, and Modi is omnipresent linked to all
508
00:39:51.559 --> 00:39:55.559
four. Hindu Hindu those who believe
in Hindutua, that see in Modi,
509
00:39:55.639 --> 00:40:01.519
that under him we are better nationalism. Oh, he's the one who is
510
00:40:01.559 --> 00:40:06.199
bringing India to the world, stags
Labharti. He's the one who is making
511
00:40:06.320 --> 00:40:10.000
us deliver. He's delivering this direct
benefit which has never happened before. And
512
00:40:10.199 --> 00:40:15.159
the electoral muscle, the organization,
the time effort resource they are putting that
513
00:40:15.239 --> 00:40:21.280
has also not seen. You're not
seen say mister Badspay going and campaigning as
514
00:40:21.320 --> 00:40:27.480
aggressively as mister Mody does. So
all these things goes into making of this
515
00:40:28.920 --> 00:40:31.719
Mady centric thing and does the voter. But it's not if you remove Mody,
516
00:40:32.039 --> 00:40:36.320
the four still will hold mo.
They might be replaced with some other
517
00:40:36.360 --> 00:40:39.519
faces, but these four are the
founding pillars I see on which the BJP
518
00:40:39.639 --> 00:40:46.199
support basis. BJP has based its
support right now. Okay, so if
519
00:40:46.239 --> 00:40:50.840
you take a state leader, there
is a view that you know, if
520
00:40:50.840 --> 00:40:54.119
they become too big eventually they kind
of you know, this idea of functioning
521
00:40:54.159 --> 00:40:59.559
doesn't work. It has to be
Moody prominent everywhere. And that's the only
522
00:40:59.639 --> 00:41:04.639
way this set was then the case
when Indiadi was the Prime minister. The
523
00:41:04.719 --> 00:41:07.639
same thing. We have seen this, this country has seen this. This,
524
00:41:07.280 --> 00:41:15.400
let's not let's not get too anxious
about it again. I'm not one
525
00:41:15.440 --> 00:41:19.679
of those who believe that, you
know, he's just about to become a
526
00:41:19.760 --> 00:41:23.599
dictator and there will be no elections
and he can take the constitution. No,
527
00:41:24.280 --> 00:41:29.000
it has happened in the past.
India is too big and too diverse
528
00:41:29.199 --> 00:41:31.480
and people. You have to believe
in the people's wisdom. They're not fools.
529
00:41:31.800 --> 00:41:36.599
Nobody, No individual, no matter
how strong he or he is,
530
00:41:37.320 --> 00:41:40.719
is able to steam roll one point
three billion Indians, no matter of course,
531
00:41:40.800 --> 00:41:45.079
no matter what comes. Yes,
there could be some period of turbulence.
532
00:41:45.840 --> 00:41:49.440
It could be for individuals or collectively
for a group of people. But
533
00:41:49.800 --> 00:41:52.719
to say that India will become one
of those countries like in Africa where somebody
534
00:41:52.760 --> 00:41:55.599
has become dictator and they're no challenge
to it, I don't see it.
535
00:41:57.719 --> 00:42:00.119
I believe that, but I'm like
my question. If my question, how
536
00:42:00.159 --> 00:42:02.559
does the DJP stay together when you
know you have somebody who's delivered, who's
537
00:42:02.599 --> 00:42:06.440
done well from the ground, so
go you sideline. So long they are
538
00:42:06.559 --> 00:42:09.599
delivering politically, they will stay together. Like it happened in case of Congress.
539
00:42:10.159 --> 00:42:14.360
You know, it's a common sense. Again, look at societies when
540
00:42:14.440 --> 00:42:17.880
families divide, when fortunes start following, Yes, so long we are making
541
00:42:17.880 --> 00:42:22.159
a lot of money in business.
Also, families are all together. Brothers
542
00:42:22.280 --> 00:42:27.119
are like rama Luxeman. The moment
you take a hit, you have a
543
00:42:27.239 --> 00:42:30.320
debt, your business is following the
both of you start falling fighting. So
544
00:42:30.480 --> 00:42:34.679
the same thing happens in politics again, same same thing. Whatever happens in
545
00:42:34.760 --> 00:42:39.360
society happens since politics as well.
So please, in your quest to push
546
00:42:39.440 --> 00:42:45.239
ideology ideology, do not make everyone
blinded. We don't we need ram Bucks,
547
00:42:45.440 --> 00:42:51.400
educated ram Bucks. We don't need
uneducated Underbucks in the name of ideologies.
548
00:42:52.800 --> 00:42:55.320
So moving beyond ideology, and I'm
coming back with the voter wants.
549
00:42:55.400 --> 00:43:00.239
Is the voter care about loyalty?
You know that I feel like you know
550
00:43:00.639 --> 00:43:04.679
it's happened in so many state parties
coming out of national they keep switching sides,
551
00:43:04.800 --> 00:43:08.159
and obviously they should. God never
even say that voters should become loyal
552
00:43:08.239 --> 00:43:14.920
forever. Then you will bring the
if anything, I would like to see
553
00:43:15.079 --> 00:43:19.079
in India more voters shifting from one
side to another. Just to give you
554
00:43:19.119 --> 00:43:22.079
another example, in southern states,
which are seen to be doing better than
555
00:43:22.159 --> 00:43:30.079
the Northern states on all economic and
social development indicators, no individual post independence
556
00:43:30.119 --> 00:43:34.000
have been able to go on to
become chief minister for more than ten years
557
00:43:34.079 --> 00:43:40.039
consecutive. Compare Tamiladu Krol Telangana and
are no Chief Minister. Mr was,
558
00:43:40.119 --> 00:43:45.119
but even his tenure had a break
in between. So nobody has got three
559
00:43:45.199 --> 00:43:51.840
times elected continuous continuously. Compare that
to be hard. Compare that to Urisa
560
00:43:52.119 --> 00:43:57.039
Rajasthan. Some of these estates are
having people thirty years, twenty five years,
561
00:43:57.320 --> 00:44:00.559
and they are the ones who are
not progressing that well. So in
562
00:44:00.719 --> 00:44:06.920
our interest, in everyone's interest,
democracy should be alive and kicking who wins
563
00:44:06.960 --> 00:44:10.920
who loses is a temporary thing.
We must not bother the botherations should be
564
00:44:10.960 --> 00:44:15.840
if democracy is not being Flactually,
when I was talking about loyalty of the
565
00:44:15.960 --> 00:44:19.960
politician, like Ni keeps changing sides. Now his idology or not doesn't matter,
566
00:44:20.280 --> 00:44:22.480
you know, the tark rage of
change sides, voter is satisfied enough
567
00:44:22.519 --> 00:44:25.039
to make this no prinction Again again, I will say, does a voter
568
00:44:25.159 --> 00:44:29.599
want the politician be wedded to something
or is the voter indifferent to the guy's
569
00:44:29.679 --> 00:44:35.280
constantly moving at wants And it is
reflected in the performance. It's just that
570
00:44:35.559 --> 00:44:38.679
in the headline of the news we
are you're not reading the subtext. Look
571
00:44:38.719 --> 00:44:43.199
at Niti's Kumar, who has done
the flip flop and I hear comment coming
572
00:44:43.280 --> 00:44:46.599
from Deli media that oh his teflan
coated without him behard is not run.
573
00:44:46.760 --> 00:44:55.320
That's not The so called uniliterate cast
based society of Bihar has made taken note
574
00:44:55.360 --> 00:45:00.559
of this. Reduced snitis from one
hundred and seventeen to fourteen too, when
575
00:45:00.559 --> 00:45:06.159
it is is no longer the political
leader and the political sway he used to
576
00:45:06.199 --> 00:45:08.920
have with voters and br is no
longer there and one of the major regions
577
00:45:08.920 --> 00:45:15.400
has been his switching sides. So
it's not that voter is completely ignorant of
578
00:45:15.480 --> 00:45:19.079
this or is not taking cognizance of
it. You go to any village in
579
00:45:19.119 --> 00:45:22.880
BR people will say, oh,
he's a Palturam. Even his own voters,
580
00:45:22.880 --> 00:45:23.800
even those who are voting for him, they are taking note of.
581
00:45:23.920 --> 00:45:29.079
Could you advise a candidate who has
his own vote base wherever in the country,
582
00:45:29.480 --> 00:45:32.360
would you advise him who's considering to
ship to jump ship to the to
583
00:45:32.480 --> 00:45:38.320
the part. Anybody who does politics
knows that you don't trade You don't trade
584
00:45:38.360 --> 00:45:45.000
off your core vote. If you
do, then you're doomed. Whoever you
585
00:45:45.159 --> 00:45:49.440
see as your core voter, like
BJP. If they say I will not
586
00:45:49.840 --> 00:45:52.639
will we will not be pro Hindutua
voters would not be our core voter.
587
00:45:52.960 --> 00:45:55.840
Then BJP is doomed. There is
no way. Let me build on it.
588
00:45:57.039 --> 00:46:01.159
Let me similarly, the left of
center parties who claim to be representing
589
00:46:01.199 --> 00:46:05.920
the ideology of left of center,
they must build an invest in the core.
590
00:46:06.559 --> 00:46:09.360
That is the problem there. They
have not invested enough in their core.
591
00:46:09.559 --> 00:46:13.519
If the core shifts, then there
is no incremental vote. Let me
592
00:46:13.599 --> 00:46:19.039
just reframe a very badly phrased question. India moved from Congress to which we
593
00:46:19.039 --> 00:46:22.320
don't say a lot of people are
considering this. What we hear a lot
594
00:46:22.360 --> 00:46:29.559
of people like India or individual They
are not institutions, they're not libituals,
595
00:46:29.800 --> 00:46:32.039
but they have a vote base.
They don't have any vote based They're just
596
00:46:32.400 --> 00:46:36.639
migratory birds. They are going which
side the wind is going. They are
597
00:46:36.679 --> 00:46:40.800
not They have some since when he
has become the grassroots leader, who is
598
00:46:42.559 --> 00:46:47.679
India? Who is Jo but for
his father and his father drawing from the
599
00:46:49.760 --> 00:46:57.559
royalty he is coming from in so
in what is his other or India today?
600
00:46:58.480 --> 00:47:02.880
So Congress was wrong in first rewarding
such people. And if you do
601
00:47:04.039 --> 00:47:07.639
wrong, you'll face the consequences.
All these people, the so called four
602
00:47:07.719 --> 00:47:12.400
or five leaders which media talks so
much, tell me what they have done.
603
00:47:13.360 --> 00:47:17.039
One did Jawala Nehru. For some
of you would know, he has
604
00:47:17.159 --> 00:47:27.360
spent eight years with a steel box
and building village level congress committee in nineteen
605
00:47:27.480 --> 00:47:31.400
twenties. Just read this book.
How many eight years he has spent doing
606
00:47:31.519 --> 00:47:35.760
that. How many of these leaders
have gone to a village and build an
607
00:47:35.840 --> 00:47:39.719
organization or kador or sangatan. They
straight were brought in as the cabinet ministers
608
00:47:39.760 --> 00:47:45.199
because they were son and daughters of
so and so. Now you thought that
609
00:47:45.320 --> 00:47:49.679
they are the big names, but
they are at best they are the potted
610
00:47:49.760 --> 00:47:52.039
plants as it heard shifts and they
are the potted plants. That's it.
611
00:47:52.400 --> 00:47:55.920
So long the environment is conducive,
it looked good in your drawing room.
612
00:47:57.519 --> 00:48:01.039
They didn't have the ability to grow
within the natural setting. So Nish is
613
00:48:01.119 --> 00:48:05.320
not a parted plant. He's yeah. So to get back to Nish,
614
00:48:05.360 --> 00:48:08.719
what explains this discrepancy that on the
one side, as you said, the
615
00:48:08.800 --> 00:48:13.559
people have punished him from one hundred
and something, he's come down to forty
616
00:48:13.679 --> 00:48:16.519
something. Then what explains the fact
that no matter which side he is on.
617
00:48:16.679 --> 00:48:23.119
He's the always CM hes CM because
sometimes the arithmetic is such and the
618
00:48:23.920 --> 00:48:29.400
as you know why nitics gets the
CM position, I tell you why.
619
00:48:29.840 --> 00:48:34.559
It is because why countries in Africa
with a lot of mineral resources get more
620
00:48:34.639 --> 00:48:40.480
civil wars BEHRD so like more minerals, meaning more people are willing to compromise
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00:48:40.719 --> 00:48:46.320
and to get the riches from that
mineral. Similarly, bihre Up states they
622
00:48:46.400 --> 00:48:52.000
have become the source of the maximum
number of member Parliament. So what Congress
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00:48:52.039 --> 00:48:57.880
did with Lalu, then it's not
that Congress leadership one Moon saying Sonia Gan
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00:48:57.920 --> 00:49:00.000
they would not know the government's track
record of missile yah, but still they
625
00:49:00.559 --> 00:49:07.000
choose to go with him because they
wanted twenty twenty five thirty MPs coming from
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00:49:07.039 --> 00:49:10.440
Behar, even if it came at
the cost of complete failure of the on
627
00:49:10.559 --> 00:49:15.000
the government's front by Lalu. Same
thing is BJP doing. BJP has not
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00:49:15.119 --> 00:49:19.840
got Nitis Kumar because Nimar will get
him more vote or seat or et cetera.
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00:49:20.760 --> 00:49:24.039
Just I want to put this on
record, BJP is going to lose
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00:49:24.719 --> 00:49:30.400
seats in Bihar in Luksaba also because
they have to now ad just Nitis Kumar,
631
00:49:30.639 --> 00:49:34.480
so they will be fighting less number
of seats. They have got Nitis
632
00:49:34.559 --> 00:49:39.840
Kumar because they wanted to kill this
perceptional thing that you know there is an
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00:49:39.880 --> 00:49:45.440
opposition alliance or a block called India. By taking one of the quote and
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00:49:45.599 --> 00:49:50.599
quote founders of India, they have
given a big psychological blow to the opposition
635
00:49:52.320 --> 00:49:57.440
side rather than them taking because he's
they cannot win Bihar or they cannot do
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00:49:57.559 --> 00:50:01.440
politics in Bihar without Nittis Kumar.
So it's so I would say BDP knows
637
00:50:01.599 --> 00:50:06.519
the data and the fact, but
it's a strategy where they have decided to
638
00:50:06.760 --> 00:50:09.920
lose the battle to win the war. That may see, if Nithishkumar is
639
00:50:10.000 --> 00:50:15.280
there with BJP, BJP cannot fight
more than twenty twenty five seats. If
640
00:50:15.320 --> 00:50:19.000
they would have fought alone with other
partners, they would have fought thirty thirty
641
00:50:19.039 --> 00:50:23.039
plus seats. Now Nithis Kamar will
win more seats because he has to be
642
00:50:23.079 --> 00:50:27.800
adjusted minimum ten twelve to fifteen.
Last time they fought seventeen each. So
643
00:50:27.920 --> 00:50:30.119
even though JP had one hundred percent
to strike it, BDP got only seventeen
644
00:50:30.199 --> 00:50:34.800
MP from behard. So this time
BJP on its own way looking to add
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00:50:34.880 --> 00:50:37.840
to that seventeen by bringing back Mithis
Kumar. They're going to lose then why
646
00:50:37.880 --> 00:50:42.559
they would do this mistake? They
would do this mistake because even if say
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00:50:42.639 --> 00:50:46.239
five less member parliament from Behar,
they will be from NDA, but not
648
00:50:46.440 --> 00:50:51.920
in BJP. The psychological blow it
has given. Now the whole media is
649
00:50:52.000 --> 00:50:54.679
talking. India's block is finished.
So that is what they have done,
650
00:50:54.719 --> 00:50:59.239
and they have done it knowingly.
After the election they will treat it very
651
00:50:59.280 --> 00:51:02.320
differently. So now that the psychological
blow has been delivered, do you see
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00:51:02.519 --> 00:51:07.840
in the very near future the BJP
swallowing and the JDU They're already swallowing.
653
00:51:07.880 --> 00:51:12.159
It's a work in progress, are
They're not swallowing him? For the last
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00:51:12.159 --> 00:51:15.679
four five years, they have swallowed
him completely. It's only a skeleton left.
655
00:51:16.280 --> 00:51:21.360
They don't need advice from me on
these things. They are far more
656
00:51:21.440 --> 00:51:24.119
smarter. They will finish him off, you know, by hugging him in
657
00:51:24.159 --> 00:51:30.039
twenty seventeen, they killed Nitis Kumar, who could potentially emerge as a challenger
658
00:51:30.079 --> 00:51:34.480
to mister Mody after twenty fifteen victory
in br They hugged him. They made
659
00:51:34.519 --> 00:51:38.760
him look like one more leader and
after doing what they have done last time.
660
00:51:38.760 --> 00:51:44.039
They have killed him completely. After
they will carry him on their souldiers
661
00:51:44.480 --> 00:51:46.519
so long there is a little bit
of relevance left after this. They know
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00:51:46.599 --> 00:51:50.559
how to deal with these leaders.
They have done it with many leaders in
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00:51:50.639 --> 00:51:55.599
Deli, both from their own party
and outside, are ruthless. Know this,
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00:51:55.840 --> 00:52:00.440
he knows it, so but it
he is also like he's with no
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00:52:00.599 --> 00:52:07.239
support, no party, no resource, no credibility left. He also says
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00:52:07.280 --> 00:52:10.679
that now I have left eighteen years, I've been chief ministers. One year
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00:52:10.760 --> 00:52:14.920
more, two year more. Whatever
I can extract maximum out of this,
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00:52:15.360 --> 00:52:17.880
the last drops of jusage he's trying
to extract. So it is solving the
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00:52:17.920 --> 00:52:23.639
purpose and that's why they've done this
deal. You were listening to Three Things
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00:52:23.719 --> 00:52:28.880
by the Ni Express. Ray's show
was edited and mixed by Siriesh Bavar and
671
00:52:29.000 --> 00:52:32.400
produced by Shashank Hargev and Nina Hurrikananda. If you like the show, then
672
00:52:32.519 --> 00:52:37.360
do subscribe to us wherever you get
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673
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674
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675
00:52:44.159 --> 00:52:47.280
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676
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