Jacob Studwell: to the Predicted Podcast. I'm Jacob Studwell. This is Garth Yuckham. We haven't spoken ⁓ in many days, ⁓ and that's why it's perfect. We're just gonna go natural. We're gonna speak what's on our mind. ⁓ And ⁓ we have to start with good old US of A the FIFA World Cup because ⁓ things got political real quick. ⁓
Garth: Yes, yes they did. ⁓ my. I mean w where where did we want to start with that? I mean I mean 'cause 'cause you and I were you and I were texting about it and I was like really excited. I broke the news. It was like holy crap. I mean but little did we know.
Jacob Studwell: Wow. You know it's And and at first, by the way, we didn't know what was going on behind the scenes. All we heard was Balogun's eligible to play. And we all just and and the night that he actually got the red card, I kept saying, ⁓ they're gonna appeal this. They're gonna appeal. I just knew there it's just I don't know. I as an American, everything needs to bend to my will. So I just know.
Garth: No. Yeah, you know, it it's funny you mentioned that 'cause it's it's also it's it's like that, you know, when you have that shirt and you and you it's broken and you just like like yeah I you can't leave it alone and then that was me I was like sitting there going hmm this is cool but wait a minute and then Trump spoke and then I kept pulling and pulling and pulling and apparently everybody else in the world started pulling it at the same time and then it became a whole thing and then we had a whole ball of yard and no shirt anymore. And then we got to the game.
Jacob Studwell: ⁓ I I think I think it's funny because FIFA's probably most satisfied with how things went down. ⁓ they got the the US market interested and and into the entire situation. I mean, I love the announcers, right? Right at the end of the LOSPs, basically saying, please don't wait four years to watch more soccer. Please tune in, you know, to the next game.
Garth: Yeah. Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: Messi Holland. Everybody's still in it. Please watch more. Don't don't turn it off. ⁓ it hit 30 million viewers. What ⁓ the most watched ⁓ soccer match in the US ever. And ⁓ FIFA again got what they wanted. They they made things right, quote unquote. ⁓ but ⁓ the US loses on their own volition. With with and I we don't need to get into it too deeply, but
Garth: Mm-hmm. ⁓ my. ⁓ my did they ever. I you know
Jacob Studwell: My goodness, Scarth, that was some of the worst soccer I'd watched them play basically since 2014 or like the old version of the U. That's what they looked like, at least in that first half. It was, ugh, I hated it. They were terrible.
Garth: ⁓ they w they they were terrible. They I mean that there's not nothing else you could say. I I woke up in the morning. Well, I set my alarm first of all and ⁓ naturally didn't wake up. ⁓ my wife actually sh was pushing me, like, what is that? What is that? Turn it off. So I turned it off and went back to sleep. And I woke up in the morning and didn't check my phone and I started watching it. And I watched the first like five minutes and went, ⁓ Well, I'm glad I didn't wake up for that.
Jacob Studwell: Right. ⁓ is right. ⁓ is definitely right. so we we we found out pretty quickly that it was the Donald who made a call to the FIFA president. I don't the FIFA president's name from here on out. I just call all FIFA presidents Set Bladder because that's that's my FIFA president of choice. ⁓
Garth: yeah, no. Well, he set quite the precedent. I mean
Jacob Studwell: ⁓ yeah, you know, bow to to to the president. I mean, that's that's the precedent, right? ⁓ you give him a peace prize, you take his calls, you take away red cards, and ⁓ hopefully they lose on their own, which they did. So ⁓ President Trump getting involved here, he doesn't necessarily get an L, but he definitely doesn't get a W because they didn't win. So ⁓ it very s
Garth: Naturally. Yeah. I mean, I think he gets a I think he gets a huge L. I I have to jump in on it. I think he gets a huge L on this one. Because he's been quiet the entire World Cup. It was all good vibes US men's national team. Then Trump showed up and all of a sudden we have taken a team that was all good vibes and turned them into the most hated team on the planet. That's not a win. In no world is that a win because you made a phone call.
Jacob Studwell: Okay. Okay. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Garth: A phone call. I mean that to me is insane. Like it was not worth it. And again, that's again sums up the Donald Trump season two ⁓ to a T. To a T.
Jacob Studwell: Totally. It really does. It really does. And let's move into Iran really quickly because it it almost feels not the same, but we're on the same path, right? It's like ⁓ you had to get involved. And now ⁓ rinse and repeat. Iran fires on us. We fire on Iran. We're we're and he basically said the MOU is over. I mean, we knew the MOU was never really in place, but the ceasefire is over. We we've now declared it. ⁓ we're we're full into war mode now. We're back into it.
Garth: Mm-hmm. Back and forth. Yep.
Jacob Studwell: And I think again, the everyday American won't care that we're in the midst of of a war or they will, you know, never know that we are out of it or in it, whatever. But inflation is going to start to hit at the perfect time or the imperfect time, depending on who you ask.
Garth: Well, I mean I mean gas prices are already up. They jumped five or six percent yesterday. So here we go again. I mean it is like yeah, again, here we go. And where's our you know you know, summer present? I wanted a summer present. What cheaper gas.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, no, I I'm with you. And and honestly, I I'd buy Democrat right now, still holding at 78 cents, or ⁓ you can get it at you can mostly get it at 80 cents. I'll say 80 cents. And ⁓ that that's a buy, just straight up. I mean, ⁓ what if we look at how the house is is being competed on and and the lines and the and the close races, ⁓ inflation, gas prices, that's what it's gonna be one on. And if Iran is going to rage on and there's clearly no agreement that is going to be able to be made, I thought he could probably make something that was close enough to the original Iran nuclear deal. But if that's not possible and the new ⁓ the new regime ⁓ is is not accepting of it, then it's it's Democrats in the House all the way. You got a twenty cent runway here with this this market. I I'd I'd load up right now. It's it's July eighth. ⁓ not
Garth: Right. Right.
Jacob Studwell: We we have a few more primaries to go in in August, but hey, this thing's gonna heat up and and the House is gonna get one up in the in a blue wave. I don't know about the Senate. The Senate's gonna be one off races, ⁓ but ⁓ you could can you make a case for a a 20 cent buy in the Republican side or 24 cent buy you can get them at?
Garth: I mean, you know, I I I think it's interesting when we take it back to also the story of the week, which is, you know, the Grand Platinum main implosion, and the fight that is now breaking out between the progressive wing and the establishment wing. That is like who will replace him? And well, he has to be this type of person or he has to be that type of person. And then you look at the Senate debate in Michigan last night, which was progressive versus you know.
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: establishment and Israel's involved in that too. And you take it all back and you sit there and you had Colorado and you had New New York. And maybe this is me putting a Republican hat on, sitting there going, well maybe there is still some wiggle room. I mean, just the other podcast we did last week, we were talking about how what Michigan was El Said all the way. Well, McMoro finally dropped out.
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
Garth: And it looks a little bit more like a race, doesn't it?
Jacob Studwell: It's certainly a race, and we said that. And and clearly McMorro, I think, might sit on the sidelines here. It seems like it probably would have been a dropout and more of an immediate endorsement, but she doesn't like Stevens because that was her main battle. And she doesn't really endorse El Said's politics and and policies. So
Garth: No. No
Jacob Studwell: It's tough to really pick a side, but you you you put up that 10% or that 8% that she was winning up in the ⁓ as a jump ball in the air. And now if Stevens captured a majority of it, we're within four points. We're within the margin of errors of most polls. ⁓ There was a new poll released today by Tavern Research. ⁓ 2200 likely voters. The survey dates were July 6th and 7th. So it's basically right after McMoro ⁓ pulled out. And they did do two versions of it, one with McMorrow in it and one with McMorro out of it. ⁓ with McMorrow in it, she she garnered 5%. So again, lower again. But I think a lot of the the poll or the survey takers ⁓ knew that. ⁓ El Said up. Three points in that scenario, ⁓ 41% says Stevens 38%. And then in just the head to head, Stevens versus El Said, Stevens is up a point, which is huge, huge, huge. So this Michigan primary is starting to heat up at the exact perfect time for Stevens. ⁓ we we have a true battle here. I'm I'm curious to see what the polls say post ⁓ debate. It was it was a pretty fiery debate.
Garth: Mm. Right. Yep.
Jacob Studwell: And very, very clear where everyone stands here. It's not a it's not one of those debates where you're like, what is the difference between them? It's very, very obvious. and I would have expected Stevens to kind of fall a little flatter than El Said, who's who's a much much better presence. ⁓ but I think Stevens had some good slings in there, some good moments. and ⁓ this is gonna come down to it. This is gonna be a tight, tight battle.
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: We see AOC and Bernie just all around Michigan and they're gonna be around Michigan for essentially another 30 days. and I where the money's gonna go, and ⁓ I wonder if the Republicans are gonna try to astroturf Al Said a little bit because they think he's an easier beat. but Michigan, man, heat it up.
Garth: Mm-hmm. Yeah. Well, I mean he's ⁓ definitely definitely an easy easier beat than than ⁓ than Stevens. And and you that ten million dollars that APAC has has spent so far, I mean, they're just probably gonna dump even more money if it if if the polling numbers are gonna tighten that much, and especially with like Morrow out, you know, there's a central attack line right there that they can just keep hitting on. And I mean, I think also that report ⁓ about El Said's, you know
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. Mm-hmm.
Garth: ⁓ medical debt cancellation program, you know, supposedly, you know, Haiti's promoting it as a seven hundred million dollars that they've taken off the deb the debt and instead it's really sixty million. That's a huge difference. You know, and then that's something that, you know, locally could really, really hit and resonate ⁓ with voters ⁓ in Wayne County and surrounding areas. ⁓ it that's I mean that's that's that's pretty interesting. I think you're right that we
Jacob Studwell: Mm. Yeah.
Garth: We kinda felt that El Said was really well positioned here to succeed. ⁓ but Stevens and the APAC money is really really helping. I mean it's it it's it's worth watching ⁓ over the cup coming weeks and and how the polling is after the debate. So
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, completely agree. So traders right now are trading El Said at 83 cents. So huge drop. I mean, he was in the 90s. So ⁓ just it's more of an important 10 cent drop than anything else. ⁓ if if you understand probabilities, it's just a huge difference between winning 92% of the time and winning close to 80% of the time. ⁓ Stevens is is up to 20 cents, obviously, with morrow down ⁓ to one and and she's out of it. But I would be interested to see Stevens creeping up a a bit more here. I think we're probably gonna land closer to one one third 33 cents for for Haley Stevens. So interesting buy. I think you can get Stevens right now at 24 cents. I would I would see again, I would want I would want to see that track up a little bit ⁓ to to 33 cents before I'm interested in El Said. but hey. We've got a race. We've got a race. August 4th. ⁓ don't forget it. ⁓ all right. Let's all you mentioned Platinum. We have to have to get to him. So as much as I want to talk about Mitch McConnell, which hopefully we'll get to after this, let's let's do Platiner, please. ⁓ so Platinum right now trading at 90 cents to drop out before July 14th, which is that ⁓ key date there, the the last date before you can drop out ⁓ July 13th. So
Garth: We definitely have a race.
Jacob Studwell: Platner released there was another report of of sexual assault by a a former girlfriend, clearly corroborated, a very clear story. It wasn't by a political ⁓ operative, it wasn't somebody who's Republican, it was it was just cut and clear, and every single person who's endorsed him has now said ⁓ he should drop out. And the Democrats get a redo here. I mean, as much as it's terrible that they're Chosen candidate is now he's basically probably out of politics. they they get a redo. And ⁓ the the choice on the progressive side, which would be a great replacement for Platner, Troy Jackson. If you look at the polling, the the the polling that they've ⁓ July 4th to the 6th, we got a few different matchups in the general Collins Plattner, Collins was up four points. And this is just a 405 likely voters. So it's it's very, very small sample size. But it is just interesting to see the ⁓ the different options. ⁓ so Collins was up four points on on Platiner. So clearly Platinum should have dropped out or should drop out again, going for 90 cents. I think it's an interesting buy. Then we have Troy Jackson again, the the progressive fill-in here, up five points against Collins in this poll. And then if you put in Janet Mills. ⁓ sh she's even against Collins at forty seven forty seven. Seems like the Democratic Party of Maine has learned from the Kamala Harris mistake and they're interested in having a real primary. What say you?
Garth: Yeah. I mean I I I I you know, I was gonna bring that up too. I mean I different circumstances, different environment, ⁓ two years on. But i I ⁓ you know, it's interesting how traders instantly jumped over all over this idea of a redo for the Democrats and finally having a clean slate and a candidate. Now who they choose, that's gonna be really interesting. And and this goes back to the Michigan thing, goes back to the Colorado thing, goes back to the New York primaries and this
Jacob Studwell: It's everything.
Garth: this fight in the Democratic Party that might give Republicans some serious wiggle room, you know, Trump aside. and, you know, this fight internal fighting that they like to do. and you know, but put Maine back on the map. And, you know, Maine has to be on the map if they want control. I mean, I I think that that that's guaranteed. ⁓ you know, y even if Al Saeed wins, then you have again that same problem.
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: ⁓ you know, that makes Michigan e slightly more likely to go Republican, even in the environment. ⁓ you know, just based on primary politics as a versus general politics. They're just different. But yeah, it's it's gonna be interesting, you know, how this plays out in the next couple weeks. And I find it also interesting that he didn't just dive on his sword, and that's probably shows his his newness as a candidate, as a political newbie. ⁓ of not just walking away and he's sitting there and his camp is saying, Well, we we're gonna have a hand in it. We're gonna have a hand in ch in choosing this person And you're like, No you no you're not. Go go take take your your ball and your bat and go home. I mean it is the the writing is on the wall. Bow out, go back to doing what you did before and just say, Well, I tried. I like I don't understand this at all. But then again I'm not, you know.
Jacob Studwell: You have no leverage. None. Right. That's it.
Garth: I don't live in Maine, so I
Jacob Studwell: No, but it's it's it's the sign of of a new politician, right? ⁓ it's I but we we could always say that about Trump as well in a lot of cases, but Trump had leverage at all times because voters were permanently attached to him. Whereas Platiner doesn't have that kind of ⁓ compelling fan base, right? So it's we we we'd love to compare it to
Garth: No. No.
Jacob Studwell: Platinum to Trump, but at the end of the day, it's not the same thing. It's not the same. ⁓ so so we've got the Democrats right now trading at 54 cents. They did get a huge bump on July 6th, opened at 58 cents, back down a little bit. ⁓ but traders are much more bullish about their chances here. really, really great fundraising on the Republican side. First half in in Maine of the year, ⁓ got in $8 million. So
Garth: Not the same. It's not the same.
Jacob Studwell: Republicans are gonna have so much money to blanket the ground and and just trash the whatever candidate they choose right off the gate. And I don't know. Republicans of 48 cents. I I I like that buy. I I like Collins. She she's gonna be way more known than whoever else runs here. I I know Troy Jackson has run for for governor and and lost that that primary on the Democratic side already. So some name recognition, but
Garth: Exactly.
Jacob Studwell: You're gonna know Susan Collins. You're probably not gonna know the other guy. So I like Collins here at 48 cents, right?
Garth: You have to. I I I mean I I have to. I mean, I obviously it's at forty eight cents for a reason. But like i i i if you think about the brand building side of this equation of of having to to to start a candidacy, I mean, even somebody like Kamala Harris, who was the vice president, who was next to the Oval Office, who was visible, you're going to have to be inserted into a campaign in which you did not win the nomination, in which it's been handed to you and you're going up against a five term
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: incumbent who delivers, delivers, delivers and wins in the tight spots. And even if you are the Secretary of State or you're some well-known relative name and you've campaigned statewide in Maine, you still have to you haven't had that time with the voters. You haven't had that time with your messaging and you're gonna need lots of money and you're gonna need to be boots on the ground in Maine.
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm. Yeah.
Garth: visiting and sh handing shaking hands. I mean it's i it's i i you know, that's just it's the runway feels too short for a Democrat to to pick it up, even if it is July.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. And I think the democratic establishment or or the democratic powers that be that have all the money are kind of sick of the state right now. ⁓ maybe it's like a last minute push where they realize, okay, this this they have they're gonna have to see the candidate ⁓ float, right? It's like ⁓ I don't know, crazy people like throw their kids in the the pool and see if they float that you know right when they're like one year old or six months old or whatever, some weird I
Garth: Yeah, yes. A deep end. In the deep end, yeah, exactly.
Jacob Studwell: I've never seen it done in real life, but I've seen videos. And that's kind of what the Democrats are gonna have to do with Troy Jackson or or even Janet Mills. Even somebody who is the sitting governor, they're still gonna kind of see, okay, how does it stick with the voters? ⁓ and by the way, if you look at Troy Jackson's materials, you look at ⁓ websites or videos, previous campaign videos, he is a
Garth: When I was set. Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: Perfect replacement for Graham Platinum. If they were seeing traction with Graham Platinum, they're gonna love the lager from Maine, who's also super aggressive, but also like links up. I know ⁓ Dan Osborne had ⁓ the independent from ⁓ Nebraska had endorsed Troy Jackson previously in the in the Democratic primary there for the governorship. So it's a great replacement. I do think Troy is probably perfect for this, but it you're still gonna not get access to the money that you need to win unless you start to float and you start to float fast. You really have to have to prove it quickly. So ⁓ we're gonna be all over that race.
Garth: Espe I mean, especially if you're especially if you're not an establishment pick, right? I mean it's it's you have to convince. And so that's the sink or swim mentality you mentioned. It's it's it's you need access to the apparatus. If you don't have it, you're toast.
Jacob Studwell: Right. Yeah, I agree. And and I mean if you look at other races, they're just so much more ⁓ interesting to to throw money at. If you look at the the Texas race is is starting to heat, heat, heat up. ⁓ Ken Paxton getting attacked from all sides. He's now getting accused of ⁓ voter fraud. He was in London for July fourth. Really weird decisions here for for getting.
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: Just I mean I get the voter fraud, whatever, let's put that aside. But you're in you're in another country for the 250th anniversary of the of the country you live in and are running for Senate in in in Texas no less. And can you can you imagine a more patriotic state to to leave? Very Ted Cruz-esque, huh?
Garth: Right. I and for all locations the UK, which we all know that I mean that's just ⁓ that symmetry is that's it's beautiful. ⁓
Jacob Studwell: He's a loyalist. He it is beautiful. It is beautiful. And and then if you look, I mean, ⁓ Sherrod Brown's gonna ⁓ that would be perfect. ⁓ my god, the Talo Rico team would would just be beside themselves if if they got him drinking tea. That'd be so perfect. ⁓ the campaign ads of of Talo Rico throwing tea bags into the the me Gulf of America or Mexico, whatever it is.
Garth: Probably drinks tea too. Ha ha ha. Exactly.
Jacob Studwell: ⁓ I don't know where Texas is or what body of water they're near. so now ⁓ yes, okay. Sherrod Brown, I was gonna say, probably gonna be easier to throw money at that Ohio race, gonna be easier to throw money at Josh Church. There's so many other races that are more attractive to throw money at. So this this main race, we'll keep an eye, but again, that 48 cents for the Republican for the the the clear ⁓
Garth: Yes.
Jacob Studwell: incumbent that has won this race over and over and over again, they're they're gonna be facing somebody who who Maine doesn't even necessarily know all that well. You you gotta be on Collins.
Garth: Right. A and and Susan Collins is like she doesn't even like Trump, so she is Republican, but you know, she might even vote for you. Like they're worse people. Yeah. Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. Yeah. Right. Exactly. You might get it both ways. It might be perfect. She might hold Trump to account, or at least she can sell it a little bit. I mean, now that the Senate has passed a war powers resolution and she was on the right side of things, there is a sell here. I'm curious if Iran heats up, if if her seat kind of heats up a little bit. But I think she's willing to to make the the harder votes to sell her her reelection. So yeah.
Garth: And her independence, yeah.
Jacob Studwell: I I love, love, love that Republican contract in the in that main main race for sure. ⁓ all right, let's let's quickly move to to Mitch McConnell. I I d again, we don't like to do the speculation. It's more about ⁓ the the facts here and and looking ahead a little bit. But i something's up with Mitch McConnell. I th ⁓ is it actually reported that he had a heart attack, or is that just conjecture? I you're you're the facts guy.
Garth: He he he he's old. I mean I I my my reporter friends were were were texting about wondering where he was, if they could if somebody could find him. Well, you know, what's what's his state? What's his state of being, right? So it's ⁓ so I think we're we're all kind of wondering where he is and and and if we will see him again. but I mean, you know, this is kind of the thing, right? You know, you're that old.
Jacob Studwell: Wondering where he was. I know where he is. He's in a hospital bed. Right. Right. Right.
Garth: Every day is an opportunity to I don't know, disappear in this case. I mean it's
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, yeah. Unfortunat I mean, ⁓ look, ⁓ again, if you just look at the actuarial tables and the the odds here. ⁓ I was seeing numbers float around like if you have a heart attack at I think he's eighty five. If you had a heart attack at eighty five, thirty days later you're you're ninety five percent ⁓ chance to to be deceased. It it's tough to talk about these things, but i it it is going to influence the control of the Senate. And ⁓ what I'm getting at is I'm curious if Andy Bashir, the very popular governor of that state, is willing to run for Senate here. And that really opens the map a lot for the Democrats. If Andy Bashir could possibly win this really important Senate seat of the the majority leader or former majority leader for the for the Republicans, really opens the map a lot. They they have to win one less race potentially if Andy Bashir can kind of run away with this seat. I don't know, is is that worth it for them to s to switch from governor to senator? And I I think it is, right? Come come in and be the hero, Andy Bashir.
Garth: I I mean, you know, in a hypothetical question, yeah, sure. I I don't ⁓ why not? ⁓ I mean the question is does Andy Bashir want to do that? I think that that's a bigger question than if we're playing hypothetical here. ⁓ being a and and well, yeah, but it th it's it's think about twenty twenty eight. Don't think about twenty twenty six. I mean that that's really the Andy Bashir equation that has to be answered is
Jacob Studwell: Such a different role, right? I mean Mm-hmm.
Garth: You know, is he running in twenty twenty eight and would does he want to do it as a senator in a Congress in which gets nothing done? or do you want to be a governor so of your state where you're turning it more blue and you're having these, you know, successes, if you will, and being able to bridge that divide and then use that as your your jumping off point for a twenty twenty eight run?
Jacob Studwell: Here's the thing, everything's so nationalized that if you step into a a national role like the democratic hero that wins the Senate for for the blue team, and everyone praises, thank God Andy Bashir was willing to run for Senate, you get so much more play in so much world runway than if you just kind of sit out and stay as the governor of a state that
Garth: Sure.
Jacob Studwell: y you might not even win in a presidential election anyway. I I think you have to take some risks here if you're Andy Bashir just because you're not, you're not AOC, you're not Gavin Newsom, and you're not Kamala Harris. If you're not those three, you have to break away from the pack somehow. And how do you not want to be the MVP for the for a for a team that could win, right?
Garth: Sure. Right. I mean I I I g I get that. I mean ⁓ the MVP story, okay, fine, makes sense. But then you're in Trump world and you are in that vortex. You lose that element of control. You might be the successful person who helped your team rest control and maybe impeach Trump. You know, who knows, right? I mean, let's get get hypothetical, hypothetical. ⁓ or remove him, basically officially remove him. ⁓
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm. Right, right. Could be. Or ⁓ remove right, remove office. Yeah, yeah. Yeah.
Garth: Maybe, but do you wanna take that risk and put your fate in some ways in the hands of Donald Trump?
Jacob Studwell: I think this is really a timing question because the primary is going to start immediately after the midterms end. We we keep saying who's gonna announce the day after the midterms end, right? That's that's the question. So you can build on momentum. I don't know, it'd be weird to win a Senate seat and then immediately declare for the 2028 primary, but
Garth: Yeah. Yeah, f one percent. Yeah, one percent. And really go. I I don't think that would be a good luck.
Jacob Studwell: It's not a good look. You're right. It's not a good look. And you definitely could announce right out of the midterms if you sit out. So the timing's awkward, but man, if you could if you could just claim, you know, Democrats win 51 seats and you're the one to push it over the finish line and and you win that sentencing easily. Especially if you can use your own money and and keep it out of and keep it. insulated from the smaller pile of money that the Democrats have compared to the Republicans, or maybe draw a lot more Republican money against you in that Senate race. ⁓ it's it's interesting. It's definitely interesting. So ⁓ we'll we'll talk a little bit more about this once things become clearer. If ⁓ Mitch McConnell is pronounced dead before August 3rd, there's actually a really fast election that h a special election that happens before the midterms, which I think is kind of nuts, but I guess that's the those are the laws of the state. and then if he is found dead after, then there's just a a midterm election. And I assume the Democrats probably want it front loaded, ideally, ⁓ because they could even get in a senator before Congress flips over. And it's it's everything's totally different, obviously. So ⁓ we'll we'll look out for that. But ⁓
Garth: Mm-hmm.
Jacob Studwell: you know, ⁓ it's our hearts go out to Mitch McConnell's family and clearly struggling here, but it's it's at the center of a of a political football. So what what are you gonna do? It's it this is America, right?
Garth: Well, exactly. I mean I mean it's it's a hypothetical I didn't think I was gonna talk about today, but you know, here we are. I mean it's
Jacob Studwell: I I drag into everything. I drag into whatever it is because we we gotta we gotta talk through it. ⁓ all right and Democrats right now are trading at forty two cents, Republicans are trading at sixty basically sixty-two cents. ⁓ I like the Democrats at 42 cents in the Senate. I think it's probably closer to a coin flip at this point. ⁓ the their main chances are are are on the up and up, and again, I think Texas of all places Seems to be closer than Iowa and Ohio, which if you told me three months ago, that would have been pretty crazy. But yeah, d I don't know. You buying at Democrats forty two cents?
Garth: Not yet. No. No, there's too much chaos in in Michigan and Maine to to buy yet. I think that that needs that needs to clear up before I jump on any any bandwagons. ⁓ I think that has to just really play out. So after August after August fourth.
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm. Yeah. That's fair. Absolutely. All right, that'll do it for the predicted podcast. Thanks for listening along. ⁓ we're on Apple Podcasts, we're on Spotify, we're on iHeart Podcasts Radio, whatever it's called. ⁓ we're on YouTube.com slash at predictedofficial, x.com slash at predicted pod. see y'all next week. Hopefully, not much happens in the next week, even though you know we're in the quiet zone, but Iran's popping off. Mitch McConnell's in the hospital. There's lots of things going on.
Garth: We're in the quiet zone.
Jacob Studwell: Even though we're in the quiet zone. All right. ⁓ have a good one, everyone.
Garth: Peace. Here was I thinking we were gonna talk about Maureen Le Pen. I was all excited about that news. ⁓
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, you you you just love an international election. You just love it.
Garth: I do, I do.
Garth: Yes, yes they did. ⁓ my. I mean w where where did we want to start with that? I mean I mean 'cause 'cause you and I were you and I were texting about it and I was like really excited. I broke the news. It was like holy crap. I mean but little did we know.
Jacob Studwell: Wow. You know it's And and at first, by the way, we didn't know what was going on behind the scenes. All we heard was Balogun's eligible to play. And we all just and and the night that he actually got the red card, I kept saying, ⁓ they're gonna appeal this. They're gonna appeal. I just knew there it's just I don't know. I as an American, everything needs to bend to my will. So I just know.
Garth: No. Yeah, you know, it it's funny you mentioned that 'cause it's it's also it's it's like that, you know, when you have that shirt and you and you it's broken and you just like like yeah I you can't leave it alone and then that was me I was like sitting there going hmm this is cool but wait a minute and then Trump spoke and then I kept pulling and pulling and pulling and apparently everybody else in the world started pulling it at the same time and then it became a whole thing and then we had a whole ball of yard and no shirt anymore. And then we got to the game.
Jacob Studwell: ⁓ I I think I think it's funny because FIFA's probably most satisfied with how things went down. ⁓ they got the the US market interested and and into the entire situation. I mean, I love the announcers, right? Right at the end of the LOSPs, basically saying, please don't wait four years to watch more soccer. Please tune in, you know, to the next game.
Garth: Yeah. Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: Messi Holland. Everybody's still in it. Please watch more. Don't don't turn it off. ⁓ it hit 30 million viewers. What ⁓ the most watched ⁓ soccer match in the US ever. And ⁓ FIFA again got what they wanted. They they made things right, quote unquote. ⁓ but ⁓ the US loses on their own volition. With with and I we don't need to get into it too deeply, but
Garth: Mm-hmm. ⁓ my. ⁓ my did they ever. I you know
Jacob Studwell: My goodness, Scarth, that was some of the worst soccer I'd watched them play basically since 2014 or like the old version of the U. That's what they looked like, at least in that first half. It was, ugh, I hated it. They were terrible.
Garth: ⁓ they w they they were terrible. They I mean that there's not nothing else you could say. I I woke up in the morning. Well, I set my alarm first of all and ⁓ naturally didn't wake up. ⁓ my wife actually sh was pushing me, like, what is that? What is that? Turn it off. So I turned it off and went back to sleep. And I woke up in the morning and didn't check my phone and I started watching it. And I watched the first like five minutes and went, ⁓ Well, I'm glad I didn't wake up for that.
Jacob Studwell: Right. ⁓ is right. ⁓ is definitely right. so we we we found out pretty quickly that it was the Donald who made a call to the FIFA president. I don't the FIFA president's name from here on out. I just call all FIFA presidents Set Bladder because that's that's my FIFA president of choice. ⁓
Garth: yeah, no. Well, he set quite the precedent. I mean
Jacob Studwell: ⁓ yeah, you know, bow to to to the president. I mean, that's that's the precedent, right? ⁓ you give him a peace prize, you take his calls, you take away red cards, and ⁓ hopefully they lose on their own, which they did. So ⁓ President Trump getting involved here, he doesn't necessarily get an L, but he definitely doesn't get a W because they didn't win. So ⁓ it very s
Garth: Naturally. Yeah. I mean, I think he gets a I think he gets a huge L. I I have to jump in on it. I think he gets a huge L on this one. Because he's been quiet the entire World Cup. It was all good vibes US men's national team. Then Trump showed up and all of a sudden we have taken a team that was all good vibes and turned them into the most hated team on the planet. That's not a win. In no world is that a win because you made a phone call.
Jacob Studwell: Okay. Okay. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Garth: A phone call. I mean that to me is insane. Like it was not worth it. And again, that's again sums up the Donald Trump season two ⁓ to a T. To a T.
Jacob Studwell: Totally. It really does. It really does. And let's move into Iran really quickly because it it almost feels not the same, but we're on the same path, right? It's like ⁓ you had to get involved. And now ⁓ rinse and repeat. Iran fires on us. We fire on Iran. We're we're and he basically said the MOU is over. I mean, we knew the MOU was never really in place, but the ceasefire is over. We we've now declared it. ⁓ we're we're full into war mode now. We're back into it.
Garth: Mm-hmm. Back and forth. Yep.
Jacob Studwell: And I think again, the everyday American won't care that we're in the midst of of a war or they will, you know, never know that we are out of it or in it, whatever. But inflation is going to start to hit at the perfect time or the imperfect time, depending on who you ask.
Garth: Well, I mean I mean gas prices are already up. They jumped five or six percent yesterday. So here we go again. I mean it is like yeah, again, here we go. And where's our you know you know, summer present? I wanted a summer present. What cheaper gas.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, no, I I'm with you. And and honestly, I I'd buy Democrat right now, still holding at 78 cents, or ⁓ you can get it at you can mostly get it at 80 cents. I'll say 80 cents. And ⁓ that that's a buy, just straight up. I mean, ⁓ what if we look at how the house is is being competed on and and the lines and the and the close races, ⁓ inflation, gas prices, that's what it's gonna be one on. And if Iran is going to rage on and there's clearly no agreement that is going to be able to be made, I thought he could probably make something that was close enough to the original Iran nuclear deal. But if that's not possible and the new ⁓ the new regime ⁓ is is not accepting of it, then it's it's Democrats in the House all the way. You got a twenty cent runway here with this this market. I I'd I'd load up right now. It's it's July eighth. ⁓ not
Garth: Right. Right.
Jacob Studwell: We we have a few more primaries to go in in August, but hey, this thing's gonna heat up and and the House is gonna get one up in the in a blue wave. I don't know about the Senate. The Senate's gonna be one off races, ⁓ but ⁓ you could can you make a case for a a 20 cent buy in the Republican side or 24 cent buy you can get them at?
Garth: I mean, you know, I I I think it's interesting when we take it back to also the story of the week, which is, you know, the Grand Platinum main implosion, and the fight that is now breaking out between the progressive wing and the establishment wing. That is like who will replace him? And well, he has to be this type of person or he has to be that type of person. And then you look at the Senate debate in Michigan last night, which was progressive versus you know.
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: establishment and Israel's involved in that too. And you take it all back and you sit there and you had Colorado and you had New New York. And maybe this is me putting a Republican hat on, sitting there going, well maybe there is still some wiggle room. I mean, just the other podcast we did last week, we were talking about how what Michigan was El Said all the way. Well, McMoro finally dropped out.
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
Garth: And it looks a little bit more like a race, doesn't it?
Jacob Studwell: It's certainly a race, and we said that. And and clearly McMorro, I think, might sit on the sidelines here. It seems like it probably would have been a dropout and more of an immediate endorsement, but she doesn't like Stevens because that was her main battle. And she doesn't really endorse El Said's politics and and policies. So
Garth: No. No
Jacob Studwell: It's tough to really pick a side, but you you you put up that 10% or that 8% that she was winning up in the ⁓ as a jump ball in the air. And now if Stevens captured a majority of it, we're within four points. We're within the margin of errors of most polls. ⁓ There was a new poll released today by Tavern Research. ⁓ 2200 likely voters. The survey dates were July 6th and 7th. So it's basically right after McMoro ⁓ pulled out. And they did do two versions of it, one with McMorrow in it and one with McMorro out of it. ⁓ with McMorrow in it, she she garnered 5%. So again, lower again. But I think a lot of the the poll or the survey takers ⁓ knew that. ⁓ El Said up. Three points in that scenario, ⁓ 41% says Stevens 38%. And then in just the head to head, Stevens versus El Said, Stevens is up a point, which is huge, huge, huge. So this Michigan primary is starting to heat up at the exact perfect time for Stevens. ⁓ we we have a true battle here. I'm I'm curious to see what the polls say post ⁓ debate. It was it was a pretty fiery debate.
Garth: Mm. Right. Yep.
Jacob Studwell: And very, very clear where everyone stands here. It's not a it's not one of those debates where you're like, what is the difference between them? It's very, very obvious. and I would have expected Stevens to kind of fall a little flatter than El Said, who's who's a much much better presence. ⁓ but I think Stevens had some good slings in there, some good moments. and ⁓ this is gonna come down to it. This is gonna be a tight, tight battle.
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: We see AOC and Bernie just all around Michigan and they're gonna be around Michigan for essentially another 30 days. and I where the money's gonna go, and ⁓ I wonder if the Republicans are gonna try to astroturf Al Said a little bit because they think he's an easier beat. but Michigan, man, heat it up.
Garth: Mm-hmm. Yeah. Well, I mean he's ⁓ definitely definitely an easy easier beat than than ⁓ than Stevens. And and you that ten million dollars that APAC has has spent so far, I mean, they're just probably gonna dump even more money if it if if the polling numbers are gonna tighten that much, and especially with like Morrow out, you know, there's a central attack line right there that they can just keep hitting on. And I mean, I think also that report ⁓ about El Said's, you know
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. Mm-hmm.
Garth: ⁓ medical debt cancellation program, you know, supposedly, you know, Haiti's promoting it as a seven hundred million dollars that they've taken off the deb the debt and instead it's really sixty million. That's a huge difference. You know, and then that's something that, you know, locally could really, really hit and resonate ⁓ with voters ⁓ in Wayne County and surrounding areas. ⁓ it that's I mean that's that's that's pretty interesting. I think you're right that we
Jacob Studwell: Mm. Yeah.
Garth: We kinda felt that El Said was really well positioned here to succeed. ⁓ but Stevens and the APAC money is really really helping. I mean it's it it's it's worth watching ⁓ over the cup coming weeks and and how the polling is after the debate. So
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, completely agree. So traders right now are trading El Said at 83 cents. So huge drop. I mean, he was in the 90s. So ⁓ just it's more of an important 10 cent drop than anything else. ⁓ if if you understand probabilities, it's just a huge difference between winning 92% of the time and winning close to 80% of the time. ⁓ Stevens is is up to 20 cents, obviously, with morrow down ⁓ to one and and she's out of it. But I would be interested to see Stevens creeping up a a bit more here. I think we're probably gonna land closer to one one third 33 cents for for Haley Stevens. So interesting buy. I think you can get Stevens right now at 24 cents. I would I would see again, I would want I would want to see that track up a little bit ⁓ to to 33 cents before I'm interested in El Said. but hey. We've got a race. We've got a race. August 4th. ⁓ don't forget it. ⁓ all right. Let's all you mentioned Platinum. We have to have to get to him. So as much as I want to talk about Mitch McConnell, which hopefully we'll get to after this, let's let's do Platiner, please. ⁓ so Platinum right now trading at 90 cents to drop out before July 14th, which is that ⁓ key date there, the the last date before you can drop out ⁓ July 13th. So
Garth: We definitely have a race.
Jacob Studwell: Platner released there was another report of of sexual assault by a a former girlfriend, clearly corroborated, a very clear story. It wasn't by a political ⁓ operative, it wasn't somebody who's Republican, it was it was just cut and clear, and every single person who's endorsed him has now said ⁓ he should drop out. And the Democrats get a redo here. I mean, as much as it's terrible that they're Chosen candidate is now he's basically probably out of politics. they they get a redo. And ⁓ the the choice on the progressive side, which would be a great replacement for Platner, Troy Jackson. If you look at the polling, the the the polling that they've ⁓ July 4th to the 6th, we got a few different matchups in the general Collins Plattner, Collins was up four points. And this is just a 405 likely voters. So it's it's very, very small sample size. But it is just interesting to see the ⁓ the different options. ⁓ so Collins was up four points on on Platiner. So clearly Platinum should have dropped out or should drop out again, going for 90 cents. I think it's an interesting buy. Then we have Troy Jackson again, the the progressive fill-in here, up five points against Collins in this poll. And then if you put in Janet Mills. ⁓ sh she's even against Collins at forty seven forty seven. Seems like the Democratic Party of Maine has learned from the Kamala Harris mistake and they're interested in having a real primary. What say you?
Garth: Yeah. I mean I I I I you know, I was gonna bring that up too. I mean I different circumstances, different environment, ⁓ two years on. But i I ⁓ you know, it's interesting how traders instantly jumped over all over this idea of a redo for the Democrats and finally having a clean slate and a candidate. Now who they choose, that's gonna be really interesting. And and this goes back to the Michigan thing, goes back to the Colorado thing, goes back to the New York primaries and this
Jacob Studwell: It's everything.
Garth: this fight in the Democratic Party that might give Republicans some serious wiggle room, you know, Trump aside. and, you know, this fight internal fighting that they like to do. and you know, but put Maine back on the map. And, you know, Maine has to be on the map if they want control. I mean, I I think that that that's guaranteed. ⁓ you know, y even if Al Saeed wins, then you have again that same problem.
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: ⁓ you know, that makes Michigan e slightly more likely to go Republican, even in the environment. ⁓ you know, just based on primary politics as a versus general politics. They're just different. But yeah, it's it's gonna be interesting, you know, how this plays out in the next couple weeks. And I find it also interesting that he didn't just dive on his sword, and that's probably shows his his newness as a candidate, as a political newbie. ⁓ of not just walking away and he's sitting there and his camp is saying, Well, we we're gonna have a hand in it. We're gonna have a hand in ch in choosing this person And you're like, No you no you're not. Go go take take your your ball and your bat and go home. I mean it is the the writing is on the wall. Bow out, go back to doing what you did before and just say, Well, I tried. I like I don't understand this at all. But then again I'm not, you know.
Jacob Studwell: You have no leverage. None. Right. That's it.
Garth: I don't live in Maine, so I
Jacob Studwell: No, but it's it's it's the sign of of a new politician, right? ⁓ it's I but we we could always say that about Trump as well in a lot of cases, but Trump had leverage at all times because voters were permanently attached to him. Whereas Platiner doesn't have that kind of ⁓ compelling fan base, right? So it's we we we'd love to compare it to
Garth: No. No.
Jacob Studwell: Platinum to Trump, but at the end of the day, it's not the same thing. It's not the same. ⁓ so so we've got the Democrats right now trading at 54 cents. They did get a huge bump on July 6th, opened at 58 cents, back down a little bit. ⁓ but traders are much more bullish about their chances here. really, really great fundraising on the Republican side. First half in in Maine of the year, ⁓ got in $8 million. So
Garth: Not the same. It's not the same.
Jacob Studwell: Republicans are gonna have so much money to blanket the ground and and just trash the whatever candidate they choose right off the gate. And I don't know. Republicans of 48 cents. I I I like that buy. I I like Collins. She she's gonna be way more known than whoever else runs here. I I know Troy Jackson has run for for governor and and lost that that primary on the Democratic side already. So some name recognition, but
Garth: Exactly.
Jacob Studwell: You're gonna know Susan Collins. You're probably not gonna know the other guy. So I like Collins here at 48 cents, right?
Garth: You have to. I I I mean I I have to. I mean, I obviously it's at forty eight cents for a reason. But like i i i if you think about the brand building side of this equation of of having to to to start a candidacy, I mean, even somebody like Kamala Harris, who was the vice president, who was next to the Oval Office, who was visible, you're going to have to be inserted into a campaign in which you did not win the nomination, in which it's been handed to you and you're going up against a five term
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: incumbent who delivers, delivers, delivers and wins in the tight spots. And even if you are the Secretary of State or you're some well-known relative name and you've campaigned statewide in Maine, you still have to you haven't had that time with the voters. You haven't had that time with your messaging and you're gonna need lots of money and you're gonna need to be boots on the ground in Maine.
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm. Yeah.
Garth: visiting and sh handing shaking hands. I mean it's i it's i i you know, that's just it's the runway feels too short for a Democrat to to pick it up, even if it is July.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. And I think the democratic establishment or or the democratic powers that be that have all the money are kind of sick of the state right now. ⁓ maybe it's like a last minute push where they realize, okay, this this they have they're gonna have to see the candidate ⁓ float, right? It's like ⁓ I don't know, crazy people like throw their kids in the the pool and see if they float that you know right when they're like one year old or six months old or whatever, some weird I
Garth: Yeah, yes. A deep end. In the deep end, yeah, exactly.
Jacob Studwell: I've never seen it done in real life, but I've seen videos. And that's kind of what the Democrats are gonna have to do with Troy Jackson or or even Janet Mills. Even somebody who is the sitting governor, they're still gonna kind of see, okay, how does it stick with the voters? ⁓ and by the way, if you look at Troy Jackson's materials, you look at ⁓ websites or videos, previous campaign videos, he is a
Garth: When I was set. Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: Perfect replacement for Graham Platinum. If they were seeing traction with Graham Platinum, they're gonna love the lager from Maine, who's also super aggressive, but also like links up. I know ⁓ Dan Osborne had ⁓ the independent from ⁓ Nebraska had endorsed Troy Jackson previously in the in the Democratic primary there for the governorship. So it's a great replacement. I do think Troy is probably perfect for this, but it you're still gonna not get access to the money that you need to win unless you start to float and you start to float fast. You really have to have to prove it quickly. So ⁓ we're gonna be all over that race.
Garth: Espe I mean, especially if you're especially if you're not an establishment pick, right? I mean it's it's you have to convince. And so that's the sink or swim mentality you mentioned. It's it's it's you need access to the apparatus. If you don't have it, you're toast.
Jacob Studwell: Right. Yeah, I agree. And and I mean if you look at other races, they're just so much more ⁓ interesting to to throw money at. If you look at the the Texas race is is starting to heat, heat, heat up. ⁓ Ken Paxton getting attacked from all sides. He's now getting accused of ⁓ voter fraud. He was in London for July fourth. Really weird decisions here for for getting.
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: Just I mean I get the voter fraud, whatever, let's put that aside. But you're in you're in another country for the 250th anniversary of the of the country you live in and are running for Senate in in in Texas no less. And can you can you imagine a more patriotic state to to leave? Very Ted Cruz-esque, huh?
Garth: Right. I and for all locations the UK, which we all know that I mean that's just ⁓ that symmetry is that's it's beautiful. ⁓
Jacob Studwell: He's a loyalist. He it is beautiful. It is beautiful. And and then if you look, I mean, ⁓ Sherrod Brown's gonna ⁓ that would be perfect. ⁓ my god, the Talo Rico team would would just be beside themselves if if they got him drinking tea. That'd be so perfect. ⁓ the campaign ads of of Talo Rico throwing tea bags into the the me Gulf of America or Mexico, whatever it is.
Garth: Probably drinks tea too. Ha ha ha. Exactly.
Jacob Studwell: ⁓ I don't know where Texas is or what body of water they're near. so now ⁓ yes, okay. Sherrod Brown, I was gonna say, probably gonna be easier to throw money at that Ohio race, gonna be easier to throw money at Josh Church. There's so many other races that are more attractive to throw money at. So this this main race, we'll keep an eye, but again, that 48 cents for the Republican for the the the clear ⁓
Garth: Yes.
Jacob Studwell: incumbent that has won this race over and over and over again, they're they're gonna be facing somebody who who Maine doesn't even necessarily know all that well. You you gotta be on Collins.
Garth: Right. A and and Susan Collins is like she doesn't even like Trump, so she is Republican, but you know, she might even vote for you. Like they're worse people. Yeah. Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. Yeah. Right. Exactly. You might get it both ways. It might be perfect. She might hold Trump to account, or at least she can sell it a little bit. I mean, now that the Senate has passed a war powers resolution and she was on the right side of things, there is a sell here. I'm curious if Iran heats up, if if her seat kind of heats up a little bit. But I think she's willing to to make the the harder votes to sell her her reelection. So yeah.
Garth: And her independence, yeah.
Jacob Studwell: I I love, love, love that Republican contract in the in that main main race for sure. ⁓ all right, let's let's quickly move to to Mitch McConnell. I I d again, we don't like to do the speculation. It's more about ⁓ the the facts here and and looking ahead a little bit. But i something's up with Mitch McConnell. I th ⁓ is it actually reported that he had a heart attack, or is that just conjecture? I you're you're the facts guy.
Garth: He he he he's old. I mean I I my my reporter friends were were were texting about wondering where he was, if they could if somebody could find him. Well, you know, what's what's his state? What's his state of being, right? So it's ⁓ so I think we're we're all kind of wondering where he is and and and if we will see him again. but I mean, you know, this is kind of the thing, right? You know, you're that old.
Jacob Studwell: Wondering where he was. I know where he is. He's in a hospital bed. Right. Right. Right.
Garth: Every day is an opportunity to I don't know, disappear in this case. I mean it's
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, yeah. Unfortunat I mean, ⁓ look, ⁓ again, if you just look at the actuarial tables and the the odds here. ⁓ I was seeing numbers float around like if you have a heart attack at I think he's eighty five. If you had a heart attack at eighty five, thirty days later you're you're ninety five percent ⁓ chance to to be deceased. It it's tough to talk about these things, but i it it is going to influence the control of the Senate. And ⁓ what I'm getting at is I'm curious if Andy Bashir, the very popular governor of that state, is willing to run for Senate here. And that really opens the map a lot for the Democrats. If Andy Bashir could possibly win this really important Senate seat of the the majority leader or former majority leader for the for the Republicans, really opens the map a lot. They they have to win one less race potentially if Andy Bashir can kind of run away with this seat. I don't know, is is that worth it for them to s to switch from governor to senator? And I I think it is, right? Come come in and be the hero, Andy Bashir.
Garth: I I mean, you know, in a hypothetical question, yeah, sure. I I don't ⁓ why not? ⁓ I mean the question is does Andy Bashir want to do that? I think that that's a bigger question than if we're playing hypothetical here. ⁓ being a and and well, yeah, but it th it's it's think about twenty twenty eight. Don't think about twenty twenty six. I mean that that's really the Andy Bashir equation that has to be answered is
Jacob Studwell: Such a different role, right? I mean Mm-hmm.
Garth: You know, is he running in twenty twenty eight and would does he want to do it as a senator in a Congress in which gets nothing done? or do you want to be a governor so of your state where you're turning it more blue and you're having these, you know, successes, if you will, and being able to bridge that divide and then use that as your your jumping off point for a twenty twenty eight run?
Jacob Studwell: Here's the thing, everything's so nationalized that if you step into a a national role like the democratic hero that wins the Senate for for the blue team, and everyone praises, thank God Andy Bashir was willing to run for Senate, you get so much more play in so much world runway than if you just kind of sit out and stay as the governor of a state that
Garth: Sure.
Jacob Studwell: y you might not even win in a presidential election anyway. I I think you have to take some risks here if you're Andy Bashir just because you're not, you're not AOC, you're not Gavin Newsom, and you're not Kamala Harris. If you're not those three, you have to break away from the pack somehow. And how do you not want to be the MVP for the for a for a team that could win, right?
Garth: Sure. Right. I mean I I I g I get that. I mean ⁓ the MVP story, okay, fine, makes sense. But then you're in Trump world and you are in that vortex. You lose that element of control. You might be the successful person who helped your team rest control and maybe impeach Trump. You know, who knows, right? I mean, let's get get hypothetical, hypothetical. ⁓ or remove him, basically officially remove him. ⁓
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm. Right, right. Could be. Or ⁓ remove right, remove office. Yeah, yeah. Yeah.
Garth: Maybe, but do you wanna take that risk and put your fate in some ways in the hands of Donald Trump?
Jacob Studwell: I think this is really a timing question because the primary is going to start immediately after the midterms end. We we keep saying who's gonna announce the day after the midterms end, right? That's that's the question. So you can build on momentum. I don't know, it'd be weird to win a Senate seat and then immediately declare for the 2028 primary, but
Garth: Yeah. Yeah, f one percent. Yeah, one percent. And really go. I I don't think that would be a good luck.
Jacob Studwell: It's not a good look. You're right. It's not a good look. And you definitely could announce right out of the midterms if you sit out. So the timing's awkward, but man, if you could if you could just claim, you know, Democrats win 51 seats and you're the one to push it over the finish line and and you win that sentencing easily. Especially if you can use your own money and and keep it out of and keep it. insulated from the smaller pile of money that the Democrats have compared to the Republicans, or maybe draw a lot more Republican money against you in that Senate race. ⁓ it's it's interesting. It's definitely interesting. So ⁓ we'll we'll talk a little bit more about this once things become clearer. If ⁓ Mitch McConnell is pronounced dead before August 3rd, there's actually a really fast election that h a special election that happens before the midterms, which I think is kind of nuts, but I guess that's the those are the laws of the state. and then if he is found dead after, then there's just a a midterm election. And I assume the Democrats probably want it front loaded, ideally, ⁓ because they could even get in a senator before Congress flips over. And it's it's everything's totally different, obviously. So ⁓ we'll we'll look out for that. But ⁓
Garth: Mm-hmm.
Jacob Studwell: you know, ⁓ it's our hearts go out to Mitch McConnell's family and clearly struggling here, but it's it's at the center of a of a political football. So what what are you gonna do? It's it this is America, right?
Garth: Well, exactly. I mean I mean it's it's a hypothetical I didn't think I was gonna talk about today, but you know, here we are. I mean it's
Jacob Studwell: I I drag into everything. I drag into whatever it is because we we gotta we gotta talk through it. ⁓ all right and Democrats right now are trading at forty two cents, Republicans are trading at sixty basically sixty-two cents. ⁓ I like the Democrats at 42 cents in the Senate. I think it's probably closer to a coin flip at this point. ⁓ the their main chances are are are on the up and up, and again, I think Texas of all places Seems to be closer than Iowa and Ohio, which if you told me three months ago, that would have been pretty crazy. But yeah, d I don't know. You buying at Democrats forty two cents?
Garth: Not yet. No. No, there's too much chaos in in Michigan and Maine to to buy yet. I think that that needs that needs to clear up before I jump on any any bandwagons. ⁓ I think that has to just really play out. So after August after August fourth.
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm. Yeah. That's fair. Absolutely. All right, that'll do it for the predicted podcast. Thanks for listening along. ⁓ we're on Apple Podcasts, we're on Spotify, we're on iHeart Podcasts Radio, whatever it's called. ⁓ we're on YouTube.com slash at predictedofficial, x.com slash at predicted pod. see y'all next week. Hopefully, not much happens in the next week, even though you know we're in the quiet zone, but Iran's popping off. Mitch McConnell's in the hospital. There's lots of things going on.
Garth: We're in the quiet zone.
Jacob Studwell: Even though we're in the quiet zone. All right. ⁓ have a good one, everyone.
Garth: Peace. Here was I thinking we were gonna talk about Maureen Le Pen. I was all excited about that news. ⁓
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, you you you just love an international election. You just love it.
Garth: I do, I do.
