After Some Big CFB Upsets, Who Do We Still Have Confidence In?

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Several highly regarded Group of Six teams lost last week.
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Some will be just fine. Others, we're a little bit
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more worried about. We discuss all that right now. Hello
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and welcome to another episode of The Pool Report, a
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college football podcast revolved around the group of six. I'm
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your host, Colton Poole, and today we once again have
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Steve Helwick from Underdog Dynasty. Steve, welcome to the show.
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And before we get started, what game you got on
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the docket this week? I know you love to travel
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to college games and cover them in person. Who are
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you going to this week?
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This will be my only Saturday of the year that
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I have planned to be off, but I do have
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a Thursday game, and it is a big one. ESPN,
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the Alamo Dome, which I will say is my favorite
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venue in college football to cover a game at. I
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love the Alamo Dome. One, I just love the city
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of San Antonio. It's right next to the Riverwalk. It's
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the only college football stadium you can walk to from
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a Rainforest Cafe or a Margaritaville or a Hard Rock Cafe,
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whatever you want to go to on the Riverwalk. You
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can walk across the street. You can watch some UTSA football.
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They have a nice open-air press box. Always good food there.
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Just great food in San Antonio. Great Mexican food all around.
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That's going to be a big one against South Florida
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on Thursday. Huge stakes in the American. I know South
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Florida was just tripped up. But there's also some good
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storylines going into it. Brian Hartline said today... that the
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Alamo dome, he talked about the noise being pumped in
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and he didn't feel like there's that many people there.
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And UTSA used it as a ticket promo. Brian Hartline
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wore number nine in college. They're offering $ 9 tickets as
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the Brian Hartline special right now, try to pack the
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Alamo dome and get some legitimate crowd noise in there.
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And the Alamo dome has special powers. Jeff trailer has
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only lost one conference game in that building. And he's
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coached there since 2020. So excited for that matchup last year, Tulane,
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got crushed on a Thursday night in the Alamo Dome.
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East Carolina watched their title hopes die in the Alamo Dome.
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So who knows what happens? It's a special place for
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UTSA and always a good atmosphere.
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Yeah. I mean, I think it was after that UTSA
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Tulane game last year where Tulane looked like a CFP
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front runner and then lost big time to UTSA. And
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you think, okay, maybe the CFP hopes are over for
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the green wave. It wasn't. But still, that performance, it
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was completely shocking. And that was the first time that
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I saw conspiracy theories that the Alamo Dome is haunted.
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But I mean, maybe the record speaks for itself. But
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I certainly, no matter what way you spin it, it's
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a very cool atmosphere, a very cool venue. And so
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excited to see that game. And interesting that you bring
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up South Florida because South Florida is one of the
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teams I want to talk about today. And the overarching
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topic for today is teams that kind of the front,
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some front runners in the G6, some top teams that lost.
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We saw a lot of these top ranked team is
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at least in the G6 top 25 media poll that
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we do at the pool report. A lot of really
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good G6 teams lost this week and South Florida was
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one of them. They were 4-0 going into last week,
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and they go and lose against Temple 17-13 at home. Now,
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South Florida was a team that I wrote about last
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week that I did not exactly have a ton of
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faith in. I know they were 4-0, and they deserve
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credit for that, but I just... you know, based on
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the results here, you know, the FIU win, you know, fine,
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you know, you win by 10 and that's good, but,
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and maybe it takes you a little bit of time
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to find a rhythm, especially with all the new faces
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that that program has. And then the comeback win for
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against army. Okay. Maybe South Florida getting the conference when
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finding a rhythm a little bit, maybe, and then Delaware
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state taking care of business there. And then bowling green,
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that game really told me that USF had some flaws
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to deal with because South Florida needed to score 14
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points in the fourth quarter to come back and win
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against a Bowling Green team that hasn't been great. And then,
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you know, if all those flaws kind of showed up
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against Temple, not able to get enough points on the
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board to take down the Owls. And now USF is
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four and one and one and one in conference play.
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And yeah, Yeah, South Florida dropped quite a bit in
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our G6 rankings this week. They went from being in
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the top 10 from 7th to 13th. So, Steve, what
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do you think of the Bulls right now?
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They need to learn how to start a football game.
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Against four FBS opponents this year, they've been outscored and
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first have 68-19. 68-19, and their only loss is four
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points to Temple. That's how bad things have been in
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the opening halves for them. But the difference in that
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Temple game was their lack of the usual fourth quarter
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surge where the fourth quarter was their highest scoring game
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in each of their first four contests. And they didn't
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have that against Temple. They lost that quarter seven to three,
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allowing a Johnny Shepard to run for that 34 yard
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touchdown on that late third down. But South Florida in
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the first halves this year, they've only scored one touchdown
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against FBS competition. Everything else has just been a field goal.
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And that one touchdown was their opening scripted drive against army.
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So it's, it's been a struggle for South Florida offensively.
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And I haven't really seen a consistent working solution. I mean,
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we've seen DJ Crowther have some good games on the ground.
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We've seen Michael Van Buren show his metal quarterback. We
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haven't really seen it all combined together at once. It
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always seems to be some different flaw that's affecting South
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Florida early in these games. Uh, I mean, they've had
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a couple turnovers, but I feel like they haven't been
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too plagued by it. I don't have the stat in
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front of me right now, but I would assume just
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based on the FIU game that they would have a
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positive turnover differential. But I feel like it's a lot
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of offensive penalties that have plagued them. Just some weird
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inefficiencies in the passing game. Against Bowling Green, their offensive
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line did not hold up well in that Bowling Green game.
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I think they allowed four and a half sacks to
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Miles Bradley alone from Bowling Green. So it's a different
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issue that's just affecting the offense every game and leading
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to these inefficiencies, and they haven't shown any explosiveness so
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far whatsoever. So South Florida, you've played four games against
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FBS teams right now. Your highest scoring game is 28
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against Army. Every other game you score fewer than 20 points.
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Not exactly looking like a contender now, but their schedule
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is manageable coming up. After this UTSA game, they play
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Kent State, UAB, and East Carolina, where this team– on
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defense alone can maybe win nine or 10 games, but
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that offense really needs to take a hurdle.
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Yeah. South Florida right now leading the American in points
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allowed per game at 14.6 and top three in total defense,
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but not so good in terms of offense, you know,
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putting up 344 yards per game, their bottom five in
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total offense right now in the American and then scoring 26.6
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per game. points per game. So yeah, I, not exactly
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what I would have expected with Brian Hartline there in
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South Florida. Previously, their offense was humming at least last year.
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I know it was a different team, but I was,
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if you, if you would have made me guess what
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would be their strength going into the season, I would
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have thought offense, but it's instead been the defense that
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has at least kept them in games. And then they
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managed to score. So, you know, a score enough anyway, to,
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to win before that temple game. So, I mean, right
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now I, I think I don't even have them in
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the top four teams in the American. If I had
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to rank them right now, I think I like Memphis more.
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I like UTSA more. I like FAU and then North Texas,
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North Texas, like, especially after that Tulsa win. So yeah, I,
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I mean, if you had to convince me into believing
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in USF, what should it be?
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The defense is really good.
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Yeah.
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I mean, other than that Shepard 34-yard touchdown run late
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in the game, I thought the defense did a really
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good job of containing Temple for most of that game.
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They only allowed one touchdown before that. They've been able
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to apply some good pressure up front.
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C.J.
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Hicks, he was a former five-star recruit at Ohio State.
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I think he's done a good job. He still hasn't
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got that sack yet, but he's done a good job
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setting the edge in the run game. And then Pup Howard, linebacker,
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that was a good transfer addition from Florida. Former starter
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with the Gators. He served well with the run defense
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there in South Florida. And their secondary is a bit disruptive.
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I mean, we saw Marion Fortenberry force a fumble at
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the one-guard line, and he broke up a couple passes
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in that game. He made some key plays. They have
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some good playmakers on the defense. We just have not
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seen consistency or explosiveness from the offense, and that was
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the team's calling card last year. Last year, South Florida's
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offense was just quick 40-yard touchdown, quick three-play 75-yard drive
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where Byron Brown hits one of his many wide receivers
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that's now at Auburn over the top or just scrambles
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for a big gain. And South Florida doesn't really have
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that explosiveness in the run game or the passing game
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that we saw last year.
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And looking at the rest of the season here, They're
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1-1 in conference play right now. They've got to play
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at East Carolina, Memphis, at FAU, and Tulane at home
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to close the season. do do they even and they
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have utsa coming up do they even have a winning
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record in conference play by the end of the year.
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I think so i i think this is one of
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the more manageable conference schedules they don't play it They
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already played Army. I was going to say they didn't
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play Service Academy. They don't have one remaining on the schedule,
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which I feel like that could be a matchup that
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could trip them up. UTSA, Memphis, and FAU are the
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tough ones. I think they can win the rest of those.
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East Carolina, Tulane, UAB.
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Tulane is another team I don't exactly have a bunch
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of faith in right now. And getting them at home, yeah,
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I could definitely see South Florida winning. Yeah, that's a
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good point.
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But I think they'll at least get to four wins,
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if not five. I think they could maybe sneak out
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one of those UTSA Memphis FAU games. I still think
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the offense is going to get better as the season
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goes on. It can't get much worse. So I think
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with the first year coach and things gelling together, you
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lost all but one starter on that side of the ball.
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I mean, you'd hope that would happen in five weeks,
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but it hasn't. But I think it will happen eventually.
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And I think that Kent State game might be a
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good reset for the offense to get going.
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Now, sticking in the American, because there's a couple more
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teams that were ranked high in our G6 rankings that lost.
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Another one of them, Tulsa. Now, I think this loss
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is– it was close. It was a very competitive game
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against North Texas at home on Thursday, but they lose
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in overtime 45-44. And– It wasn't a game that I
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would have expected if it was going to be close.
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I thought Tulsa's defense, if you're going to keep it competitive,
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it was going to be a little bit more of
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a low-scoring game. But 45-44, not exactly that. But that said,
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they don't win, and now they've lost back-to-back games after
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starting the season 3-0, including that remarkable win against Oklahoma
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State at home 24-10. But then they beat Sam Houston...
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and take on East Texas A & M. So they
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start 3-0, now 3-2. What do you think of the
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Golden Hurricane right now?
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I still think they're improved over last year. It is
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tough that Trey Lamb is 1-8 in conference games since
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he's been there. I mean, he's 6-2 in non-conference games
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with two wins over Oklahoma State. If you told Tulsa
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fans that when he was about to take over the job,
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he said, sign me up any day for that.
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Does anything else matter at that point? Yeah.
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Conference games have been a struggle. I was actually impressed.
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I left the North Texas game impressed. One, I was
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shocked Tulsa was favored. I think I saw that it
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was Tulsa by one and a half. In my preview,
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I picked North Texas 35 to 16. I saw what
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North Texas did to UNLV. North Texas' offense outgained Indiana.
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They were great against Texas State. That offense had been
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pretty much unstoppable so far this year. And after watching
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Tulsa's defense kind of struggle to contain Chris Marshall in
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that Arkansas passing attack, I thought North Texas was going
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to be a team that would kind of crushed Tulsa
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and it didn't exactly happen that way, but it sort
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of did in the box score, North Texas out gained
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them five 59 to three 52. If not for three turnovers,
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North Texas probably would have won that game a lot
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more handily, a lot more convincing. They overcame that 14
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to three deficit pretty early and then built a two
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touchdown lead. Then came the phantom Tulsa touchdown that went
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viral that nobody understood and including roles analysts and former officials.
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Nobody understood where that touchdown came from. But I'm not
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going to say that's going to change the game. That
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was a first and goal from the five-yard line. Tulsa
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probably eventually scores there. So not too hung up on
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that result because I think Tulsa was going to score anyway.
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But I was impressed with Tulsa's offense in being able
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to stay in the game. They had to score more
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than 24 points against FBS competition. Baylor Hayes, three touchdowns
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00:13:58.039 --> 00:14:00.539
without an interception. He moved the passing game pretty well.
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And the running attack did its job, I would say.
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It looked a lot better than it did against Arkansas.
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So I think that Tulsa's offense did enough for me
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to convince me that this is still a bowl team.
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I don't think that's a contender. I never even did
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after the Oklahoma State game because I didn't think the
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00:14:18.179 --> 00:14:20.820
offense had that level in it. But you see the
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upcoming schedule, Navy, Rice, Army, Tulane, FAU, Charlotte, UTSA. That's
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00:14:25.480 --> 00:14:28.580
probably one of the easier stretches in the Americans. with
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FAU and UTSA probably being the two most difficult games remaining.
267
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So I think that this Tulsa's a bowl team. I
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00:14:34.950 --> 00:14:36.649
think they can get a winning record this year. I
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00:14:37.509 --> 00:14:39.710
think they can solve some of their non-conference issues. That
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00:14:39.750 --> 00:14:42.139
was a very good performance against the North Texas team
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that I think is going to contend for a conference championship.
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Yeah, and I think we're talking about this game completely different.
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I mean, Tulsa went for two and was just short.
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If they get that two-point conversion, we're talking about this
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in a completely different way. I still like Tulsa overall.
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Maybe this is just the one setback game, and maybe
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they lose one more, and then by tiebreakers or whatever,
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they find themselves into the conference championship. I don't... I
279
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think Memphis and UTSA are still my top two teams
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00:15:21.129 --> 00:15:25.529
in the conference, but I mean, if the defense can
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00:15:25.590 --> 00:15:29.059
get back to what it was before the North Texas game,
282
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and then if that offense can keep humming the way
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00:15:31.500 --> 00:15:36.100
it was and Baylor Hayes stays healthy, I think there's
284
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a path there. I really do. So I think Tulsa's
285
00:15:40.620 --> 00:15:44.539
a team that my confidence meter, if you had to
286
00:15:44.580 --> 00:15:47.799
put a confidence meter in Tulsa right now, I think
287
00:15:47.840 --> 00:15:50.600
I'm at like an eight. Where are you at, Steve?
288
00:15:51.279 --> 00:15:55.960
To do what? To be competitive in the American, to
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00:15:57.240 --> 00:15:59.220
be in the mix by the end of the season.
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00:16:00.340 --> 00:16:02.779
Probably like a six and a half, I would say.
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00:16:02.840 --> 00:16:09.299
Okay. Okay. Maybe a team that is lower, higher? Because
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you had a lot of faith in them going into
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00:16:11.720 --> 00:16:15.419
last week, and that's another team I want to talk
294
00:16:15.460 --> 00:16:21.769
about here is Army. Uh, army, obviously not exactly what
295
00:16:21.789 --> 00:16:26.480
you want to see against Louisiana tech losing 31 to 29.
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00:16:26.480 --> 00:16:30.580
Now they're two and two. Would they have the loss
297
00:16:30.620 --> 00:16:33.019
against South Florida and the win over temple? So they're
298
00:16:33.100 --> 00:16:35.659
one in one in conference play. What do you think
299
00:16:35.679 --> 00:16:36.679
of the black Knights right now?
300
00:16:37.799 --> 00:16:39.899
They have a lot of defensive issues that I did
301
00:16:39.960 --> 00:16:42.679
not expect. I understood they were replacing a lot of
302
00:16:42.710 --> 00:16:45.799
the defense from last year, but I, I didn't think
303
00:16:45.840 --> 00:16:48.519
their run defense would be this susceptible. And their pass
304
00:16:48.559 --> 00:16:50.879
defense has also allowed a lot of explosives this year.
305
00:16:50.919 --> 00:16:53.080
We saw that against Temple. We saw it again against
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00:16:53.120 --> 00:16:57.250
Louisiana Tech. They gave up 503 yards. In Army games,
307
00:16:57.570 --> 00:17:01.370
usually limited possessions, other than that famous Wake Forest game
308
00:17:01.389 --> 00:17:03.570
a few years ago that was like 70 to 56
309
00:17:03.570 --> 00:17:06.990
or whatever. But Army games, you think limited possessions, few
310
00:17:07.069 --> 00:17:09.750
yards allowed. And because of that, they keep ranking first
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00:17:09.809 --> 00:17:11.990
and second in scoring defense and total defense in the
312
00:17:12.029 --> 00:17:15.660
American every single year, it seems like. But Louisiana Tech
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00:17:15.720 --> 00:17:18.420
just got whatever they wanted offensively on Army, and they
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00:17:18.440 --> 00:17:20.210
were able to do it in a multitude of ways.
315
00:17:21.130 --> 00:17:23.769
And Army was very close to losing that Temple game
316
00:17:23.829 --> 00:17:26.109
as well, where I just have to remove them from
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00:17:26.130 --> 00:17:28.690
my American Conference championship at this point. I just don't
318
00:17:28.730 --> 00:17:31.329
think it's the year of the service academy. I haven't
319
00:17:31.349 --> 00:17:35.349
seen enough consistency from the rushing attack where you see
320
00:17:35.390 --> 00:17:39.170
multiple players having good games. We've usually seen the Cale
321
00:17:39.210 --> 00:17:42.329
Hellams game. Against Louisiana Tech, it was just Samari Howard.
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00:17:42.390 --> 00:17:42.650
That was.
323
00:17:43.279 --> 00:17:45.880
pretty much single-handedly leading the rushing attack. And with Army,
324
00:17:45.900 --> 00:17:48.900
you can't have a one-man show in the backfield each game.
325
00:17:48.940 --> 00:17:51.559
You have to have multiple guys stepping up and delivering
326
00:17:51.599 --> 00:17:54.900
strong performances for that option offense to work at its peak.
327
00:17:55.319 --> 00:17:57.759
And that has not happened so far this year. So
328
00:17:58.259 --> 00:18:01.259
I unfortunately have removed the Black Knights for my championship
329
00:18:01.279 --> 00:18:04.079
game in favor of two other teams. I also removed
330
00:18:04.119 --> 00:18:06.900
South Florida for my preseason conference championship. So I have
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two whole new teams in there.
332
00:18:09.529 --> 00:18:13.170
So, yeah, Army, a team that plummeted in our G6
333
00:18:13.210 --> 00:18:18.519
Top 25 ranking from 12th to 24th. Yeah, I think
334
00:18:18.559 --> 00:18:20.240
they're going to be a solid team. I could see
335
00:18:20.259 --> 00:18:21.559
them being in a bowl game by the end of
336
00:18:21.579 --> 00:18:26.000
the season, but in terms of being competitive in the American,
337
00:18:26.019 --> 00:18:31.069
I just haven't seen enough for me to believe that
338
00:18:31.119 --> 00:18:35.089
they're going to be in the mix for a conference title. So,
339
00:18:36.769 --> 00:18:39.099
Before we move on to two more teams that aren't
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00:18:39.150 --> 00:18:41.640
in the American, who do you like to win the
341
00:18:41.700 --> 00:18:45.259
conference championship right now, then? I like.
342
00:18:45.279 --> 00:18:49.839
I don't know who I'm going to pick. I like
343
00:18:49.880 --> 00:18:52.259
Memphis and North Texas in the conference championship game.
344
00:18:52.539 --> 00:18:53.519
Okay, yeah.
345
00:18:53.880 --> 00:18:57.380
Memphis and North Texas. I am fully bought into North
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00:18:57.420 --> 00:19:02.049
Texas' offense. Their defense, a bit inconsistent, but that UNLV
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00:19:02.069 --> 00:19:04.529
game keeps... bringing me back to that run defense and
348
00:19:04.549 --> 00:19:06.589
what they were able to do against UNLV. That win's
349
00:19:06.609 --> 00:19:10.470
looking even better after what UNLV did to Cal. I
350
00:19:10.490 --> 00:19:13.470
have believed in North Texas, honestly, since that Indiana game.
351
00:19:13.630 --> 00:19:16.710
That 52-16 score was not indicative of how that game
352
00:19:16.769 --> 00:19:19.730
went whatsoever. It was 24-13 in the third quarter. North
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00:19:19.750 --> 00:19:22.039
Texas' offense was kind of going toe-to-toe with them for
354
00:19:22.079 --> 00:19:26.859
a bit. And Memphis, other than the second half against
355
00:19:26.900 --> 00:19:30.700
Boise State, Memphis has played a phenomenal season. They're so balanced.
356
00:19:31.349 --> 00:19:34.369
Marcus Stokes is a great quarterback. We've seen Jalen Carter
357
00:19:34.410 --> 00:19:37.920
take over games on the ground. That team, they're a
358
00:19:37.940 --> 00:19:41.180
fun team. They're easy to buy into. Their defense, they're
359
00:19:41.519 --> 00:19:46.049
disruptive at the front. It's a very well-balanced Memphis team.
360
00:19:46.109 --> 00:19:49.009
It's shocking that Memphis hasn't made the conference championship since 2019,
361
00:19:48.990 --> 00:19:52.009
considering how many good teams they've had over the years,
362
00:19:52.049 --> 00:19:54.930
how many star players they've had over the years, like
363
00:19:54.950 --> 00:19:57.410
the whole Seth Hennigan era. But I think this is
364
00:19:57.450 --> 00:19:59.910
the year the Tigers finally get back. They just look
365
00:19:59.970 --> 00:20:03.480
so good. I know it was just Charlotte, but 59-8
366
00:20:03.579 --> 00:20:06.799
on the road. They ended that thing before the 11 a.m. Central,
367
00:20:06.799 --> 00:20:09.579
12 p.m. Eastern games even kicked off.
368
00:20:11.720 --> 00:20:16.170
North Texas, I maybe should believe in them a little
369
00:20:16.210 --> 00:20:18.990
bit more, but there's that game against Texas State where
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00:20:19.190 --> 00:20:23.410
they gave up 49 points. Do you foresee that being
371
00:20:23.430 --> 00:20:27.410
a continuing problem with this North Texas and its defense?
372
00:20:28.490 --> 00:20:31.410
Or do you just think Brad Jackson and that Texas
373
00:20:31.430 --> 00:20:34.309
State offense is just so good and the Mean Green
374
00:20:34.329 --> 00:20:35.910
just aren't going to see a team like that again?
375
00:20:37.029 --> 00:20:40.789
It could be, but Texas State kind of let down
376
00:20:40.849 --> 00:20:43.329
last week against the San Diego state team that was
377
00:20:43.450 --> 00:20:50.509
shorthanded due to some biological circumstances, but North Texas, I
378
00:20:51.029 --> 00:20:54.279
trust the offense enough to get things done and win
379
00:20:54.299 --> 00:20:56.859
games in high scoring fashion. I don't think this is
380
00:20:56.880 --> 00:20:59.740
the strongest year in the American conference. Every team has
381
00:20:59.779 --> 00:21:02.160
been pretty flawed so far. I'd say that Memphis has
382
00:21:02.339 --> 00:21:04.960
probably proven to be the least flawed team in the conference,
383
00:21:04.980 --> 00:21:09.170
I would say to date, but North Texas overall, Taven
384
00:21:09.190 --> 00:21:11.329
Jackson has really found his home there. He's been a
385
00:21:11.369 --> 00:21:15.809
pretty good strong passer, regularly getting over 300 yards. Jaheim White,
386
00:21:15.950 --> 00:21:18.529
just controlling games on the ground. They have so many
387
00:21:18.650 --> 00:21:21.779
weapons at wide receiver. Corey Millerner, we've seen him take
388
00:21:21.839 --> 00:21:24.099
over games. We've seen the tight end Max Reese take
389
00:21:24.180 --> 00:21:26.779
over the last few games. Justin Stevenson's done a good job.
390
00:21:27.079 --> 00:21:29.680
Just so many weapons where you can just win 45
391
00:21:29.680 --> 00:21:32.920
to 44 every week and make this conference championship game.
392
00:21:32.960 --> 00:21:34.769
And I think North Texas might be on track to
393
00:21:34.829 --> 00:21:35.250
doing that.
394
00:21:36.180 --> 00:21:38.029
So this is the perfect segue to another team I
395
00:21:38.069 --> 00:21:41.529
wanted to bring up. One in the Pac-12 now. I
396
00:21:41.569 --> 00:21:44.970
almost said Sunbelt. Nope, caught myself. They're in the Pac-12 now,
397
00:21:45.049 --> 00:21:49.750
Texas State. They lost, you mentioned this already, lost to
398
00:21:49.789 --> 00:21:52.670
San Diego State. Then they fell eight spots in our
399
00:21:52.769 --> 00:21:56.369
G6 rankings, 15th to 23rd. So what do you think
400
00:21:56.390 --> 00:21:58.609
of the Bobcats right now? Are you maybe not too
401
00:21:58.650 --> 00:22:01.599
worried about them, you know, based on the circumstances they
402
00:22:01.630 --> 00:22:08.640
dealt with? Or is that maybe signs of problems? Are
403
00:22:08.660 --> 00:22:12.450
they going to continue to have issues against other Pac-12 teams?
404
00:22:12.470 --> 00:22:16.369
The problem is, read the box score, and you think
405
00:22:16.430 --> 00:22:19.910
Texas State won this game by like 30. First downs,
406
00:22:20.029 --> 00:22:23.500
Texas State 34, San Diego State 13. Third down efficiency,
407
00:22:23.599 --> 00:22:25.880
Texas State 8 of 19, San Diego State 1 of 10. Yards,
408
00:22:25.880 --> 00:22:32.589
565 to 239 yards. It was only a 2-0 turnover battle.
409
00:22:32.619 --> 00:22:34.569
You still feel like at that point that Texas State
410
00:22:34.609 --> 00:22:37.069
still probably could have won this game by at least 20.
411
00:22:37.069 --> 00:22:38.789
But no, they had a late pick six, a really
412
00:22:38.849 --> 00:22:45.109
weird pick six, right after the safety. This Texas State
413
00:22:45.130 --> 00:22:47.109
forces a safety. They have that safety punt. And then
414
00:22:47.130 --> 00:22:49.150
the first play after is a pick six to Cameron Cooper,
415
00:22:49.210 --> 00:22:50.910
the same guy in San Diego State who blocked a
416
00:22:50.930 --> 00:22:53.380
field goal earlier and really turned the tide of the
417
00:22:53.410 --> 00:22:57.549
game with two freak plays. Texas State's offense can outscore anybody,
418
00:22:57.589 --> 00:22:59.970
but their defense has been such a problem. We saw
419
00:22:59.990 --> 00:23:02.559
that against North Texas. We saw it also against UTSA
420
00:23:02.599 --> 00:23:06.359
to some extent, giving up that fourth quarter drive late
421
00:23:06.380 --> 00:23:08.259
in the game to lose. And then week one when
422
00:23:08.279 --> 00:23:11.640
they gave up 59 to Texas. And Texas's offense hasn't
423
00:23:11.660 --> 00:23:14.720
been the most consistent unit so far. So Texas State
424
00:23:14.759 --> 00:23:17.880
is like the Pac-12 version of North Texas where you
425
00:23:17.900 --> 00:23:20.069
can't really trust the defense, but you can trust the
426
00:23:20.190 --> 00:23:23.019
offense to at least deliver every game. But the problem
427
00:23:23.039 --> 00:23:26.420
with Texas State is it's been a team susceptible to
428
00:23:26.579 --> 00:23:30.559
weird mistakes. It has been very bad in the turnover
429
00:23:30.619 --> 00:23:33.680
game so far. Looking up the margin right now, it
430
00:23:33.799 --> 00:23:37.720
is a minus four. And I don't know what it
431
00:23:37.759 --> 00:23:39.779
was in their FCS game, if that would even make
432
00:23:39.819 --> 00:23:42.900
it worse if you excluded that. But also they've had
433
00:23:42.940 --> 00:23:46.480
struggles in the kicking game. They've just had struggles in
434
00:23:46.559 --> 00:23:49.490
weird areas that are kind of obscured by the box
435
00:23:49.509 --> 00:23:52.089
score in some way. So The offense has been pretty
436
00:23:52.130 --> 00:23:54.710
dominant so far, but they have some other issues that
437
00:23:54.730 --> 00:23:58.009
they really need to clean up going into full Pac-12 play.
438
00:23:58.569 --> 00:24:01.769
They did win the turnover margin 2-1 against Incarnate Word.
439
00:24:02.309 --> 00:24:05.890
So I'm thinking that's the only example of that this
440
00:24:05.910 --> 00:24:06.970
year for Texas State.
441
00:24:07.089 --> 00:24:14.869
So yeah, the turnovers have been brutal, but I still
442
00:24:14.890 --> 00:24:17.670
think that there's such an incredible upside for this team
443
00:24:17.710 --> 00:24:20.130
with that offense and the playmakers.
444
00:24:20.700 --> 00:24:24.599
That that offense has. I think San Diego State's a
445
00:24:24.660 --> 00:24:29.680
really interesting case study for is Texas State going to
446
00:24:29.720 --> 00:24:33.980
be a contender in the Pac-12? Maybe not. Maybe that
447
00:24:34.099 --> 00:24:37.660
offense isn't good enough to overcome all the other deficiencies
448
00:24:37.720 --> 00:24:41.299
that this team has. But are they going to be
449
00:24:42.259 --> 00:24:47.759
a very tough team for every other unit or squad
450
00:24:48.039 --> 00:24:52.660
in the Pac-12? Yes. I think even at Boise State,
451
00:24:52.940 --> 00:24:55.829
I think Boise State is not going to be looking
452
00:24:55.869 --> 00:25:00.490
forward to dealing with this Texas State passing offense, especially
453
00:25:00.529 --> 00:25:04.579
with all the problems that that Boise State passing defense has.
454
00:25:04.740 --> 00:25:11.759
Oregon State, could that be a 56-53 game, something like that? Yeah,
455
00:25:12.039 --> 00:25:16.369
I'm looking forward to a high-scoring game like that. Fresno State,
456
00:25:16.410 --> 00:25:19.390
their defense has been pretty solid, so we'll see how
457
00:25:19.430 --> 00:25:23.130
those two units match up. I think Fresno State, I
458
00:25:23.170 --> 00:25:26.190
think that one could be even lopsided Fresno State's way
459
00:25:26.269 --> 00:25:29.769
because Fresno State is very, at least to me, the
460
00:25:29.890 --> 00:25:35.970
eye test seems they're a more disciplined team. So maybe
461
00:25:36.670 --> 00:25:41.779
those problems, if they continue into November, could be very
462
00:25:41.819 --> 00:25:45.769
problematic in a game like that. But, I mean, they're
463
00:25:45.789 --> 00:25:48.650
0-1 in conference play with the loss of San Diego State.
464
00:25:49.309 --> 00:25:51.410
They do have to play other teams like Colorado State,
465
00:25:51.509 --> 00:25:54.930
Utah State, Wazoo. I don't know. Do you think they
466
00:25:54.950 --> 00:25:57.029
can get to 500 in conference play by the end
467
00:25:57.069 --> 00:25:58.670
of the year and make a bowl game?
468
00:26:00.829 --> 00:26:03.029
I think they'll get to 500 in conference play. I
469
00:26:03.069 --> 00:26:06.329
have them beating Colorado State, Utah State, Washington State. Not
470
00:26:06.369 --> 00:26:08.130
sure who the flex game is going to be. That'll
471
00:26:08.150 --> 00:26:12.599
be interesting. But I think they can get Fresno State
472
00:26:12.630 --> 00:26:16.799
at home. Or maybe one of Boise State or Oregon State.
473
00:26:17.259 --> 00:26:19.160
I think they could sneak up on one of those
474
00:26:19.240 --> 00:26:20.859
and just win an offensive shootout.
475
00:26:20.880 --> 00:26:25.160
I think the Boise State game is really interesting. Yeah.
476
00:26:25.799 --> 00:26:28.279
I don't know if Boise State goes perfect yet. They've
477
00:26:28.299 --> 00:26:31.160
looked really good. They've looked the part. But, I mean,
478
00:26:31.400 --> 00:26:34.240
Oregon State and Texas State are such dangerous offenses that
479
00:26:34.400 --> 00:26:36.980
I said in last week's show that they can capitalize
480
00:26:37.039 --> 00:26:39.440
on Boise State's biggest flaw, and it's a game of matchups.
481
00:26:39.460 --> 00:26:41.920
So those are two games I'm definitely looking forward to.
482
00:26:42.650 --> 00:26:48.099
And Texas State, if they continue to struggle against Colorado State,
483
00:26:48.180 --> 00:26:51.460
even I could see them losing to Colorado State. And
484
00:26:51.480 --> 00:26:55.220
then maybe Utah State gives them problems. But then it
485
00:26:55.299 --> 00:26:59.480
is such a kryptonite-type team for Boise State that if
486
00:26:59.559 --> 00:27:03.460
Texas State then beats Boise State after struggling the previous
487
00:27:03.480 --> 00:27:08.619
few weeks, that throws the G6 CFP race down. into
488
00:27:08.839 --> 00:27:12.079
a in that that is going to throw a wrench
489
00:27:12.119 --> 00:27:16.180
in everything so looking forward to it because we love
490
00:27:16.220 --> 00:27:20.140
college football and we love chaos on this podcast so
491
00:27:20.660 --> 00:27:22.369
one more team i wanted to bring up here before
492
00:27:22.420 --> 00:27:26.369
we go and that was umass and i think everyone
493
00:27:26.390 --> 00:27:30.450
kind of let out a collective uh no not umass
494
00:27:31.130 --> 00:27:33.769
because they were one of the most fun teams in
495
00:27:33.829 --> 00:27:37.819
college football this year But then they go and lose
496
00:27:37.859 --> 00:27:42.380
to Eastern Michigan and lose by a healthy margin. So
497
00:27:43.599 --> 00:27:47.190
do we still have any sort of confidence in UMass
498
00:27:47.869 --> 00:27:51.130
and the Minutemen in terms of the MAAC title race
499
00:27:51.769 --> 00:27:55.390
after a really thorough loss against a team like Eastern Michigan, Steve?
500
00:27:56.309 --> 00:27:59.069
I'll be honest. I never had them in the MAAC
501
00:27:59.109 --> 00:28:01.690
title race picture. It was a great start. It was
502
00:28:01.730 --> 00:28:04.730
a fantastic story. I'm so glad that we've unlocked a
503
00:28:04.809 --> 00:28:08.279
sleeping giant of a fan base in Amherst, which absolutely delivered.
504
00:28:08.650 --> 00:28:10.559
It kind of reminded me of the Western Michigan-Boise State
505
00:28:10.579 --> 00:28:14.299
game where the crowd brought the top energy in a decade,
506
00:28:14.420 --> 00:28:16.680
but the team just wasn't able to match that performance
507
00:28:16.740 --> 00:28:20.059
on the field. Eastern Michigan was up 38-7 in that game.
508
00:28:20.079 --> 00:28:23.019
They really hammered UMass. That was the Eastern Michigan I
509
00:28:23.079 --> 00:28:25.380
expected to see going into the season where Noah Kim,
510
00:28:25.420 --> 00:28:27.859
the leading passer in the MAAC last year, looks like
511
00:28:27.900 --> 00:28:31.750
the seventh-year senior veteran quarterback he is their three-headed running
512
00:28:31.789 --> 00:28:35.329
back room is able to capitalize on offense. And Eastern Michigan,
513
00:28:35.829 --> 00:28:37.809
who I thought was going to be an offensively dominant
514
00:28:37.849 --> 00:28:40.069
team going into the year, finally showed that. And they
515
00:28:40.109 --> 00:28:42.990
did it with some long, methodical possessions. I think almost
516
00:28:43.089 --> 00:28:46.170
every single scoring drive was at least 10 plays. But yeah,
517
00:28:46.349 --> 00:28:50.480
UMass didn't design enough Pop Watson-designed runs in that game
518
00:28:50.740 --> 00:28:52.599
that I would have liked to see that really unlocks
519
00:28:52.640 --> 00:28:56.079
another level of their offense. And then defensively, they kind
520
00:28:56.119 --> 00:28:58.920
of They didn't really show the same strength in the
521
00:28:58.980 --> 00:29:01.599
trenches that they did in that Rutgers game. They weren't
522
00:29:01.660 --> 00:29:05.200
able to stuff Eastern Michigan's run game as well. The
523
00:29:05.240 --> 00:29:09.049
thing is, UMass hadn't been challenged since that Rutgers game.
524
00:29:09.200 --> 00:29:12.190
They played two FCS opponents in Sacramento State, who is
525
00:29:12.809 --> 00:29:15.809
just as bad as anybody in the FBS. They're still transitioning.
526
00:29:15.849 --> 00:29:16.529
It's a new team.
527
00:29:17.430 --> 00:29:20.630
So UMass hadn't really been challenged, and Eastern Michigan kind
528
00:29:20.670 --> 00:29:22.690
of punched them in the mouth. So I'm curious to
529
00:29:22.730 --> 00:29:25.589
see how this team responds. You have Miami, Ohio at
530
00:29:25.630 --> 00:29:28.089
home next week, and Miami is a completely different team
531
00:29:28.430 --> 00:29:31.200
down its top two quarterbacks now. So it does present
532
00:29:31.519 --> 00:29:37.069
UMass an opportunity for redemption. And I think there's going
533
00:29:37.089 --> 00:29:39.170
to be challenging games on the schedule, but in MAAC play,
534
00:29:39.210 --> 00:29:42.900
Toledo is really the one that feels like a guaranteed loss.
535
00:29:43.259 --> 00:29:45.240
Can they have a winning record, make a bowl game?
536
00:29:45.440 --> 00:29:46.000
Absolutely.
537
00:29:46.460 --> 00:29:50.460
Are they going to contend with Toledo, Western Michigan for
538
00:29:50.559 --> 00:29:52.259
the MAAC championship? Probably not.
539
00:29:53.730 --> 00:29:58.210
Yeah, especially after there were so many close results. Western
540
00:29:58.230 --> 00:30:03.859
Michigan barely beating Buffalo. You had Ohio barely beating, I
541
00:30:03.890 --> 00:30:08.359
think it was Kent State. And then, yeah, I mean,
542
00:30:08.559 --> 00:30:15.839
the MAAC otherwise had a chaotic week. Bowling Green having
543
00:30:15.900 --> 00:30:21.160
its first win over Miami, Ohio. You mentioned obviously Miami
544
00:30:21.420 --> 00:30:24.670
not at full strength, but And then Central Michigan, a
545
00:30:24.690 --> 00:30:27.329
team that I kind of liked in terms of the
546
00:30:27.390 --> 00:30:30.869
MAAC going into the season, they were the only other
547
00:30:30.910 --> 00:30:37.839
convincing win, beating Akron 41-17. But yeah, Toledo right now, 4-1.
548
00:30:38.400 --> 00:30:40.480
There's a lot to like about the Rockets right now.
549
00:30:41.160 --> 00:30:46.069
And I still, you know, I get that game against Buffalo,
550
00:30:46.089 --> 00:30:48.230
you would have liked that to not be so close,
551
00:30:48.289 --> 00:30:50.990
but I still have a lot of faith in Western Michigan.
552
00:30:51.009 --> 00:30:55.000
I think those two teams... are the top dogs in
553
00:30:55.019 --> 00:30:59.319
the MAAC right now. But looking forward to seeing how
554
00:30:59.359 --> 00:31:04.319
this all unfolds in the MAAC here and looking forward
555
00:31:04.380 --> 00:31:10.779
to another chaotic week in college football. Steve, yeah, so
556
00:31:10.880 --> 00:31:14.539
your trip, who do you like? UTSA South Florida, you
557
00:31:14.559 --> 00:31:16.420
like UTSA to take care of business there in the
558
00:31:16.480 --> 00:31:16.920
Alamo Dome?
559
00:31:17.380 --> 00:31:20.200
I've seen a lot of UTSA conference wins at Alamo
560
00:31:20.240 --> 00:31:22.240
Dome before, and I think that they will get it
561
00:31:22.259 --> 00:31:24.619
done on Thursday night. You can catch me at that
562
00:31:24.660 --> 00:31:28.619
Rainforest Cafe before the game getting some anaconda pasta or
563
00:31:28.680 --> 00:31:33.329
something like that going over and watching UTSA South Florida
564
00:31:33.369 --> 00:31:35.390
on the Alamo Dome. Should be a great atmosphere there,
565
00:31:35.430 --> 00:31:38.789
especially in the wake of Brian Hartline's comments. But fun
566
00:31:38.829 --> 00:31:41.390
American Thursday night game. We had one last week with Tulsa,
567
00:31:41.509 --> 00:31:44.849
North Texas, so We could get more craziness chaos. You
568
00:31:44.890 --> 00:31:47.029
said this is a chaos loving podcast. We can get
569
00:31:47.049 --> 00:31:49.130
more chaos in the Alamo dome Thursday night. And that's
570
00:31:49.170 --> 00:31:50.809
going to be a fun one in San Antonio.
571
00:31:51.589 --> 00:31:54.809
Yeah. Can't wait. What other content you got coming this week, Steve,
572
00:31:54.849 --> 00:31:56.630
before we let you go? Yeah.
573
00:31:56.710 --> 00:32:00.059
Just publishing stuff on different conferences, just published a big
574
00:32:00.059 --> 00:32:04.660
12 takeaways piece. Also my Monday Mac musings thoughts piece
575
00:32:04.680 --> 00:32:08.259
will be published probably like five minutes after we finished filming,
576
00:32:08.680 --> 00:32:10.460
going to do some stuff on the American, some other
577
00:32:10.519 --> 00:32:14.430
previews of stuff soon. And then I know we're already
578
00:32:14.470 --> 00:32:16.769
looking a week ahead, but I also look forward to
579
00:32:16.809 --> 00:32:19.759
getting back on the field for some weekday CUSA next
580
00:32:19.799 --> 00:32:23.779
week when Sam Houston's hosting some games. So Thursday games,
581
00:32:23.819 --> 00:32:25.940
Wednesday games, looking forward to covering games on all sorts
582
00:32:25.980 --> 00:32:26.680
of days of the week.
583
00:32:27.440 --> 00:32:30.190
Awesome. It's going to be awesome. Can't wait. Thank you
584
00:32:30.210 --> 00:32:34.210
so much for the time, Steve, as always. And this
585
00:32:34.250 --> 00:32:36.210
has been the pool report with Colton pool. If you
586
00:32:36.250 --> 00:32:38.579
like what you heard and want more mid-major football coverage,
587
00:32:38.619 --> 00:32:40.880
make sure you subscribe and give us a five-star review.
588
00:32:41.079 --> 00:32:42.619
You can find me and the work that I'll be
589
00:32:42.640 --> 00:32:45.059
doing covering the group of six over on Twitter slash
590
00:32:45.220 --> 00:32:47.779
X at C pool reporter. And if you're so inclined,
591
00:32:47.799 --> 00:32:49.690
you can support my G six coverage at the pool
592
00:32:49.710 --> 00:32:52.349
report on sub stack. And now I think it's about
593
00:32:52.390 --> 00:32:53.849
time we get out of here.