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Prelude: A daycare centre in New Zealand Peter Ellis was a childcare worker in Christchurch, New Zealand. A creative, flamboyant and somewhat uninhibited character, Ellis loved his job, put a lot of energy into programme planning, and would entertain children with elaborate puppet shows and somewha…
In his book The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb presents the “ludic fallacy”: the mistake of applying unvarnished theoretical probabilities to real-world scenarios. Thanks for reading! This post is public so feel free to share it. Here is his example: You have a fair coin which, on the last 99 …
A leopard goes to the doctor.“Doc,” he says, “You gotta help me. Whenever I look at my wife, I see spots.”The doctor looks at him for a minute and says, “Well, what do you expect? You’re a leopard.”“I know that, Doc. But I’m married to a zebra.” Healthcare serial murder enquiries are unusual in tha…
In his summing up, Mr Justice Goss instructed the jury that they did not need to be sure precisely how Ms. Letby murdered the infants, as long as they were sure she did: “If you are sure that someone on the unit was deliberately harming a baby or babies you do not have to be sure of the precise har…
Take the following hypothetical scene, which describes Lucy Letby’s experience at the Countess of Chester Hospital: Internal investigation A hospital experiences a cluster of deaths and collapses materially in excess of its usual rates for such events. Staff notice a particular nurse was present du…
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