EV Math: Why 2 + 2 Never Equals 4 in Fleet Electrification

David Renschler is the Fleet Manager for the City of Fairfield, California, where he has managed one of the nation's top-recognized public fleets since 2007. He was named Government Fleet Manager of the Year at GFX in 2022, has testified before Congress on fleet electrification, and has engaged with the California Air Resources Board since 2008 as an advocate for realistic, data-driven EV policy. He launched a fleet electrification consulting practice in 2023 to provide government and private fleets with honest, complete cost analysis in a space he describes as overrun with misinformation.

• [3:55] What being a good steward of the taxpayer dollar actually looks like in fleet practice
• [5:17] How David manages 24 vehicle replacement funds with projections through 2050
• [9:21] Where the EV market actually is today versus where the headlines say it is
• [13:08] The $7.8 million vs. $300,000 compliance decision that shaped Fairfield's EV strategy
• [22:24] EV math: charging losses, infrastructure cost recovery, and the true cost per mile
• [33:39] Why EV bus tires cost nearly double and wear at half the rate of diesel equivalents
• [38:44] The depreciation gap between a Lightning and a gas F-150 at five years
• [41:45] Where to find honest EV operating data before you commit

The EV conversation in fleet has been running on two tracks. On one: headlines, mandates, and grant-funded promises. On the other: fleet managers with spreadsheets, receipts, and real-world data who keep running the numbers and getting a different answer.

David Renschler has been on the second track for years. In this Roadrageous episode, he walks through what he calls EV math—the complete cost accounting that most electrification analyses leave out. Charging losses between meter and battery. Infrastructure replacement cycles nobody budgets for. Tire costs on battery electric buses nearly double those on diesel. And a real-world fuel cost that, for his transit operation, works out to more than $15 per mile versus 75 cents for diesel.

• EV fuel costs are understated by approximately 17% because OEM efficiency ratings are calculated from battery kilowatts, not metered kilowatts. Charging losses are real and must be included.
• Infrastructure cost amortized across actual throughput can push EV fuel cost above $7/kWh, making it more than 10x the cost of diesel per mile in transit applications.
• Chargers have a 5–7 year replacement cycle with real capital costs. That cost must be reflected in fuel rate calculations from day one, not treated as a one-time grant expense.
• Government fleets in California remain compliance organizations regardless of grant availability. Planning must account for regulatory scenarios across multiple election cycles.

• David Renschler — City of Fairfield Fleet Services
• NAFA Fleet Management Association
• MEMA — Motor & Equipment Manufacturers Association
• APWA — American Public Works Association
• East Bay Clean Cities Coalition
• NorCal Clean Cities and Communities
• Government Fleet Expo (GFX)
• ACT Expo
• SPIDER Driver Training by IMPROV Learning
• Chad Lindholm on LinkedIn