The Latest Midterms RED ALERT Hits the GOP

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Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
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So much to talk to you about.
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If you're just new to prediction markets,
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you wanna go to predictable101.com,
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great place for you to get started.
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Short videos,
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guides
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on how to use prediction markets,
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why to use prediction markets.
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It's all up there.
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Check it out.
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We're gonna go into Nate Silver's latest midterm warning,
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kind of a big story over the past 24 hours.
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We have a candidate countdown coming up out of New Jersey,
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and we will talk about one of uh Biden's favorite January 6th
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prosecutors.
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In a little bit of trouble and it's tied
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to prediction markets.
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We'll get into that
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as well.
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Join us on predictableShow.com and on YouTube,
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wherever you get your podcasts as well.
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It's predictable with Stu,
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and we start
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right now.
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Alright,
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here we go.
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It's predictable with stew time.
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We're hopefully going to make your world a little more profitable,
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a little more predictable.
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As you know,
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politicians have been making money off of you for a very long time.
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It's time for you
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to make some money off of them,
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and that's what we're gonna try to do for the next 34 days.
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Find positions that make you some money off
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of these elections because they do exist.
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We've done very well so far through the primaries,
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and we're hoping.
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And we can hold that,
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uh,
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trend all the way through
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the elections.
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I'm optimistic about it,
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you know,
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it doesn't mean that I like every election result that's around the corner.
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I will say that,
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uh,
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there could be some negative ones.
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If they're bad,
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we're gonna try to profit off them.
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If there's things that we do like,
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we're also
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going to just try to profit off of them.
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So
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we're gonna separate ourselves from the emotion.
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We know that election times are very difficult.
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They are very stressful.
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Because
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you care about the country.
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I mean,
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you care about the country,
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you care about the people around you,
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you want the best for them,
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and
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that doesn't always come in the form of an election.
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Even when your guy wins,
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a lot of times they suck.
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So what we're gonna do here is,
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is watch all that,
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try to analyze it and give you the best perspective as to what is going to happen
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in just 34 days,
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and at the same time,
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look for profit,
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uh,
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profit opportunities
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because,
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uh,
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hey,
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if you're gonna have some pain in an election,
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why not get paid for it.
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That's the way I look at it.
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By the way,
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uh,
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I keep saying 34 days away.
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Actually,
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early voting has already started in several states,
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5 states to be exact.
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We have more coming up around the corner.
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Just wanna make sure that you know PredictableShow.com.
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We have the predictable midterm consensus.
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This is a prediction model,
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uh,
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or excuse me,
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a,
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uh,
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an election model that I built,
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uh,
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which looks at everything,
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polling averages,
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fundraising,
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uh,
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election models,
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uh,
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expert opinion,
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everything except for
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my opinion
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and prediction markets.
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Why not prediction markets?
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Well,
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we do think that they are very,
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very,
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uh,
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good at predicting
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what comes in these elections,
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but
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We're looking for those gaps.
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We're looking for those opportunities,
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so we keep those out and we show you the difference between what our,
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you know,
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what the consensus model is saying
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and what election,
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uh,
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markets are saying.
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And that might be a little bit of a starting point for you
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to get some money into these markets if you want access to all 35 states,
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we have them.
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If you are a premium subscriber to PredictableShow.com
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and the House and the Senate are free,
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you can check that out as well
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on the site,
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OK,
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um.
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Let me start this with an email
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I received.
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By the way,
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questions
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at predictableShow.com.
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Questions at predictableShow.com.
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Get yours in.
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This comes
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uh from Mike.
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Mike says,
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hey,
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Stu,
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first off,
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thank you.
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Your primary coverage made me more money this spring
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than my 401k has in three years,
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which says something about either your analysis or my retirement planning.
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Money well spent on the premium sub.
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I love,
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uh,
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thanks so much for joining us on the adventure of PredictableShow.com.
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It's growing quickly,
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and we do really appreciate it if you happen to be a free sub or a,
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uh,
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a premium sub.
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We love you.
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We love you all.
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Um,
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I just read Nate Silver's new piece
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on midterm waves,
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and I'd like a refund on my optimism.
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His whole argument is that waves against the party
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in the White House are basically the default setting,
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not some freak event.
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So,
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is the house even worth trading anymore,
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or is it priced in?
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And is there any value left on the GOP side
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of the Senate,
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or am I just buying with my heart?
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I'm asking for a friend.
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The friend is me
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and my wife,
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who controls the budget.
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Keep up the great work,
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Mike,
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a premium subscriber.
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First of all,
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Mike,
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thank you so much for joining us.
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Uh,
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we do appreciate you being there and being part of PredictableShow.com.
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You can be there too.
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All my picks.
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There's gonna be an update on Stu's picks here,
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uh,
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in a couple of days.
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We have over 350 of them that you can kinda get jump on board,
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and I know a lot of you have,
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so thank you for that.
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Um.
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Do we have the predictable midterm consensus still up
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by any chance?
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His last question was,
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uh,
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what was it,
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was,
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uh,
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is the house even worth trading anymore,
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or is it priced in?
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Go down to the House and the Senate if you would,
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um,
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uh,
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and am I buying with my heart?
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Here we go.
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Uh,
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86.7% chance for the Democrats to win the House.
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It,
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you know,
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it's funny because
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it's hard to believe it would go that much higher,
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and there has to be some level of uncertainty here.
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Now,
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I,
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I really do believe,
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and I've told you this,
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I've been buying this for a very long time
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for the Democrats to win the House.
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Just between history and,
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you know,
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the,
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the,
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the way things are going and being perceived in the polls,
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I'm pretty confident they're gonna win there.
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86.7%.
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I mean,
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how high can it go though,
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right?
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Like it's not gonna go to 98%,
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I don't think,
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uh,
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but 86.7%.
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This again,
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tons and tons of data going into this,
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you know,
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dozens of data sources
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go into to make this number.
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So 86.7%.
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The Senate has risen.
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If you scroll down a little bit here,
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Adam,
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you'll see the graph.
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Um,
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61.5% chance for Democrats to win the Senate.
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Go,
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go up to the graph for a minute.
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Uh,
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there it is.
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Yeah,
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you see how close it was for a very long time from when we launched
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the model in August,
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all the way through to,
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you know,
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really Labor Day,
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and then the divide,
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the divergence,
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uh,
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occurs,
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and you see
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now Democrats with a
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leaning lead.
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It's not a massive lead in the Senate,
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uh,
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could go either way still,
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but the House does not feel like one that can go either way,
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at least that there's not much of a chance of it.
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Uh,
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so anyway,
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you can explore every state if you're a premium subscriber.
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This is the piece that,
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uh,
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that,
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uh,
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Mike was asking about silver bulletin.
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Midterm waves are the rule,
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not the exception.
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And one of the things we've talked about as we've gone through
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all this data over the past,
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uh,
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couple of months
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is,
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are we talking about
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a Democratic win?
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Are we talking about a Democratic wave?
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Are we talking about a Democratic tsunami?
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Are we talking about a Republican catastrophe?
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What,
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what level are we talking about here?
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As I said a few times,
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00:06:48.330 --> 00:06:49.870
I feel pretty well protected
293
00:06:50.130 --> 00:06:52.920
against everything except the absolute catastrophe,
294
00:06:53.410 --> 00:06:54.180
and at some point.
295
00:06:54.750 --> 00:06:57.780
You have to leave yourself some level of risk with or you just,
296
00:06:57.830 --> 00:06:57.980
you know,
297
00:06:58.030 --> 00:06:58.970
you wind up with
298
00:06:59.190 --> 00:07:00.500
making 1%
299
00:07:00.710 --> 00:07:01.220
on your money,
300
00:07:01.630 --> 00:07:01.870
you know,
301
00:07:02.430 --> 00:07:05.410
you're gonna wanna jump into some of these markets that aren't sure things
302
00:07:05.590 --> 00:07:07.610
and you're gonna try to make some of those profits.
303
00:07:07.870 --> 00:07:08.730
The question is
304
00:07:08.990 --> 00:07:10.380
if there's a real wave,
305
00:07:10.470 --> 00:07:12.300
a real catastrophe for Republicans,
306
00:07:12.320 --> 00:07:14.330
a real celebratory
307
00:07:14.650 --> 00:07:15.230
event
308
00:07:15.430 --> 00:07:15.730
in,
309
00:07:15.910 --> 00:07:16.410
um,
310
00:07:16.790 --> 00:07:18.340
in November for Democrats.
311
00:07:18.990 --> 00:07:21.400
Some of these positions that felt
312
00:07:21.990 --> 00:07:23.750
totally safe a couple of months ago
313
00:07:24.030 --> 00:07:25.370
will start to feel risky,
314
00:07:25.390 --> 00:07:26.900
and so we're guarding against that.
315
00:07:26.990 --> 00:07:27.340
We've,
316
00:07:27.430 --> 00:07:28.220
we've given you
317
00:07:28.420 --> 00:07:29.770
concrete steps to take
318
00:07:30.110 --> 00:07:34.570
to try to uh protect yourself for that scenario because I think that scenario is
319
00:07:34.830 --> 00:07:35.260
possible.
320
00:07:35.350 --> 00:07:35.650
But
321
00:07:35.760 --> 00:07:37.130
when you say the word wave,
322
00:07:37.470 --> 00:07:38.220
what does that mean?
323
00:07:38.830 --> 00:07:41.340
Wave has a really broad meaning,
324
00:07:41.510 --> 00:07:44.610
especially if you're kind of looking at it the way that Nate Silver seems to be here.
325
00:07:45.030 --> 00:07:45.180
Uh,
326
00:07:45.390 --> 00:07:45.850
which
327
00:07:46.070 --> 00:07:46.650
is
328
00:07:46.830 --> 00:07:48.200
a significant change,
329
00:07:48.430 --> 00:07:50.330
a significant pushback against the power,
330
00:07:50.470 --> 00:07:50.520
uh,
331
00:07:50.810 --> 00:07:52.340
that is in the White House,
332
00:07:52.720 --> 00:07:54.180
but also not necessarily,
333
00:07:54.270 --> 00:07:56.990
it doesn't have to rise to Tea Party levels of 2010,
334
00:07:57.270 --> 00:07:58.130
the biggest wave
335
00:07:58.380 --> 00:07:59.890
election we've had in a century.
336
00:08:00.190 --> 00:08:00.730
Um,
337
00:08:01.390 --> 00:08:03.540
you could have a pretty significant defeat.
338
00:08:03.890 --> 00:08:05.830
And a significant defeat that is a wave,
339
00:08:05.890 --> 00:08:06.390
I think
340
00:08:06.570 --> 00:08:09.840
carries with it some states and races that you wouldn't expect.
341
00:08:10.250 --> 00:08:12.480
Republicans may be losing states in red,
342
00:08:12.610 --> 00:08:12.720
uh,
343
00:08:13.210 --> 00:08:15.550
losing seats in red states that they never thought
344
00:08:15.690 --> 00:08:18.070
they would be very vulnerable here going in.
345
00:08:18.570 --> 00:08:22.040
Another part of this is we have increased partisanship,
346
00:08:22.610 --> 00:08:24.040
increased polarization,
347
00:08:24.400 --> 00:08:24.820
and
348
00:08:25.500 --> 00:08:27.600
The belief has been for a while
349
00:08:28.180 --> 00:08:28.750
that
350
00:08:29.170 --> 00:08:32.559
the hatred basically for that Democrats have of Republicans and
351
00:08:32.559 --> 00:08:36.130
Republicans have of Democrats locks you into a certain range
352
00:08:36.289 --> 00:08:37.510
of possibilities.
353
00:08:37.730 --> 00:08:38.880
It's not everything.
354
00:08:39.010 --> 00:08:40.990
You're not gonna go back to the days where people
355
00:08:41.010 --> 00:08:43.600
were winning 48 and Ronald Reagan's won 49 states.
356
00:08:43.690 --> 00:08:44.710
That's not happening anymore.
357
00:08:44.990 --> 00:08:45.160
Right,
358
00:08:45.370 --> 00:08:46.320
because no matter what,
359
00:08:46.370 --> 00:08:47.590
there's gonna be 20 states
360
00:08:47.730 --> 00:08:50.560
or 15 states that Democrats are gonna win every single time.
361
00:08:50.650 --> 00:08:51.680
The Republicans have the same,
362
00:08:51.810 --> 00:08:52.470
even more,
363
00:08:52.650 --> 00:08:52.680
uh,
364
00:08:52.890 --> 00:08:53.080
states,
365
00:08:53.170 --> 00:08:54.270
although some of them are smaller.
366
00:08:54.610 --> 00:08:56.600
This is what the Nate Silver model has.
367
00:08:56.650 --> 00:08:57.000
Now
368
00:08:57.250 --> 00:08:57.920
Silver's models,
369
00:08:58.000 --> 00:08:58.200
you know,
370
00:08:58.690 --> 00:09:00.910
not based on the exact same things that mine is,
371
00:09:01.130 --> 00:09:01.240
uh,
372
00:09:01.330 --> 00:09:03.050
but you can see the same pattern here,
373
00:09:03.330 --> 00:09:03.600
uh,
374
00:09:03.970 --> 00:09:06.070
how the Senate forecast has changed over time.
375
00:09:06.470 --> 00:09:08.080
He had the Democrats leading
376
00:09:08.270 --> 00:09:09.690
as you go through August,
377
00:09:09.910 --> 00:09:10.020
uh,
378
00:09:10.150 --> 00:09:12.930
basically tied at the beginning of September and ever since
379
00:09:13.210 --> 00:09:15.130
has been rising and rising
380
00:09:15.350 --> 00:09:17.020
and rising and rising and rising.
381
00:09:17.150 --> 00:09:19.820
Now 72.6% chance.
382
00:09:19.910 --> 00:09:20.210
So
383
00:09:20.430 --> 00:09:24.020
Silver is more pessimistic for Republican chances in the Senate
384
00:09:24.350 --> 00:09:24.530
than,
385
00:09:24.630 --> 00:09:24.930
uh,
386
00:09:24.950 --> 00:09:26.160
the PMC
387
00:09:26.270 --> 00:09:26.850
is.
388
00:09:27.270 --> 00:09:27.480
Uh,
389
00:09:27.670 --> 00:09:31.770
he is more pessimistic for Republicans' chances in the Senate than I am personally.
390
00:09:32.390 --> 00:09:32.540
Uh,
391
00:09:32.740 --> 00:09:33.330
he is,
392
00:09:33.590 --> 00:09:33.780
uh,
393
00:09:33.950 --> 00:09:34.140
uh,
394
00:09:34.310 --> 00:09:34.730
you know,
395
00:09:35.710 --> 00:09:37.110
even more pessimistic than
396
00:09:37.670 --> 00:09:38.900
the prediction markets are.
397
00:09:39.490 --> 00:09:39.630
Uh,
398
00:09:39.760 --> 00:09:40.110
on,
399
00:09:40.240 --> 00:09:41.910
on the Republicans' chances,
400
00:09:41.960 --> 00:09:42.980
and you can see
401
00:09:43.200 --> 00:09:44.600
one of the reasons why,
402
00:09:44.840 --> 00:09:46.140
and a huge part of,
403
00:09:46.240 --> 00:09:46.350
uh,
404
00:09:46.520 --> 00:09:48.010
Nate's model is the,
405
00:09:48.120 --> 00:09:48.470
uh,
406
00:09:48.680 --> 00:09:49.030
uh,
407
00:09:49.240 --> 00:09:49.750
generic vote.
408
00:09:49.840 --> 00:09:50.190
In fact,
409
00:09:50.480 --> 00:09:51.250
it's not just his model,
410
00:09:51.640 --> 00:09:53.900
almost everybody's model has generic vote as a big
411
00:09:54.040 --> 00:09:54.630
input
412
00:09:54.840 --> 00:09:55.380
into,
413
00:09:55.400 --> 00:09:55.550
uh,
414
00:09:55.640 --> 00:09:57.330
into a particular election model.
415
00:09:57.560 --> 00:09:59.240
This is what his the rise looks like.
416
00:09:59.290 --> 00:09:59.950
You see,
417
00:10:00.200 --> 00:10:02.150
if you go back to February and April,
418
00:10:02.400 --> 00:10:03.650
Republicans were actually leading.
419
00:10:04.070 --> 00:10:04.320
Uh,
420
00:10:04.480 --> 00:10:05.730
by a small amount
421
00:10:05.870 --> 00:10:07.160
that has changed dramatically.
422
00:10:07.560 --> 00:10:08.160
About April,
423
00:10:08.190 --> 00:10:10.460
it crossed the line into Democratic territory,
424
00:10:10.750 --> 00:10:13.980
hung around 2 or 3 points for a while until we got to,
425
00:10:14.070 --> 00:10:14.300
uh,
426
00:10:14.470 --> 00:10:15.800
the beginning of 2026,
427
00:10:15.990 --> 00:10:18.460
has slowly risen from the beginning of 2026
428
00:10:18.850 --> 00:10:19.690
until about
429
00:10:19.830 --> 00:10:20.490
Labor Day.
430
00:10:20.710 --> 00:10:23.610
And since Labor Day has skyrocketed upward,
431
00:10:24.030 --> 00:10:24.170
uh,
432
00:10:24.310 --> 00:10:24.460
you know,
433
00:10:24.510 --> 00:10:25.530
you've gone from
434
00:10:25.710 --> 00:10:27.540
about 6 points to 8.9%.
435
00:10:27.750 --> 00:10:28.070
So
436
00:10:28.310 --> 00:10:28.980
it doesn't sound like a lot,
437
00:10:29.030 --> 00:10:30.100
but it's like 50% rise,
438
00:10:30.190 --> 00:10:30.500
right?
439
00:10:30.830 --> 00:10:30.900
Uh,
440
00:10:31.000 --> 00:10:32.510
it's a pretty significant.
441
00:10:33.220 --> 00:10:36.010
Rise there in that margin and it is a big deal.
442
00:10:36.100 --> 00:10:36.320
I mean,
443
00:10:36.620 --> 00:10:37.170
having
444
00:10:37.620 --> 00:10:39.000
seen these types of things
445
00:10:39.490 --> 00:10:41.560
is an indicator that
446
00:10:42.020 --> 00:10:44.100
catastrophic things for Republicans are possible.
447
00:10:44.700 --> 00:10:44.890
The,
448
00:10:44.980 --> 00:10:46.400
the most glorious day that
449
00:10:46.740 --> 00:10:48.480
Democrats can ever imagine is possible
450
00:10:48.700 --> 00:10:50.840
and also somewhat normal things,
451
00:10:51.100 --> 00:10:51.170
uh,
452
00:10:51.260 --> 00:10:51.660
of a,
453
00:10:51.680 --> 00:10:52.470
a party
454
00:10:52.700 --> 00:10:53.820
that is in power,
455
00:10:54.140 --> 00:10:54.250
uh,
456
00:10:54.340 --> 00:10:55.370
are very possible.
457
00:10:55.550 --> 00:10:56.470
Let me give you some of the,
458
00:10:56.490 --> 00:10:56.570
uh,
459
00:10:56.660 --> 00:10:57.140
context,
460
00:10:57.300 --> 00:10:57.410
uh,
461
00:10:57.500 --> 00:10:58.850
from Nate Silver's newsletter.
462
00:10:59.280 --> 00:11:00.110
Since World War Two,
463
00:11:00.280 --> 00:11:03.950
the opposition party has gained ground in House popular vote all but once,
464
00:11:04.080 --> 00:11:05.430
and that was 2002
465
00:11:05.680 --> 00:11:07.950
in the wake of the September 11th attacks
466
00:11:08.080 --> 00:11:09.870
and gained seats in the House all but twice,
467
00:11:09.890 --> 00:11:11.400
2002 and 1998
468
00:11:11.580 --> 00:11:15.500
as part of the backlash to perceived Republican overreach on Monica Lewinsky.
469
00:11:15.920 --> 00:11:17.030
The average shift,
470
00:11:17.200 --> 00:11:18.220
this is what we need to remember here,
471
00:11:18.360 --> 00:11:19.600
and we've gone through these numbers before,
472
00:11:19.760 --> 00:11:20.270
but to,
473
00:11:20.400 --> 00:11:21.110
to kind of recap,
474
00:11:21.160 --> 00:11:22.050
the average shift
475
00:11:22.160 --> 00:11:23.740
is a 7.4
476
00:11:23.870 --> 00:11:24.830
point swing.
477
00:11:25.120 --> 00:11:26.870
The interquartile range.
478
00:11:27.990 --> 00:11:32.140
Meaning between the 25th and 75th percentile is 4.8 to 10.8%.
479
00:11:32.270 --> 00:11:32.430
So,
480
00:11:33.810 --> 00:11:37.000
Kind of what you'd expect to happen is somewhere between 5 and 11 points.
481
00:11:38.050 --> 00:11:38.920
Is what he's saying,
482
00:11:39.290 --> 00:11:39.440
uh,
483
00:11:39.610 --> 00:11:41.470
that's within the interquartile range.
484
00:11:41.730 --> 00:11:41.960
Um,
485
00:11:42.290 --> 00:11:42.440
uh,
486
00:11:42.650 --> 00:11:42.970
this is,
487
00:11:43.010 --> 00:11:43.210
uh,
488
00:11:43.440 --> 00:11:44.000
the flipper,
489
00:11:44.050 --> 00:11:45.550
which is the name of his model,
490
00:11:45.830 --> 00:11:48.460
is currently projecting a 10.5
491
00:11:48.650 --> 00:11:51.010
point swing toward Democrats from 2024,
492
00:11:51.170 --> 00:11:53.070
10.5 points
493
00:11:53.330 --> 00:11:56.720
when they lost the House popular vote by 2.6 in 2024.
494
00:11:57.120 --> 00:11:58.160
That's within the range.
495
00:11:58.280 --> 00:12:00.950
It is also about the same as the previous two midterms
496
00:12:01.080 --> 00:12:02.230
with a Republican president.
497
00:12:02.280 --> 00:12:03.720
There was a 9.7
498
00:12:04.000 --> 00:12:06.480
point blue shift in the Trump one midterm
499
00:12:06.600 --> 00:12:08.950
and a 10.6 points in 2006.
500
00:12:10.220 --> 00:12:11.890
If you think about those two elections,
501
00:12:12.020 --> 00:12:13.720
2018 and 2006,
502
00:12:14.140 --> 00:12:16.720
what you think about I would say is a
503
00:12:17.340 --> 00:12:17.940
uh.
504
00:12:19.120 --> 00:12:21.400
The beginnings of catastrophe,
505
00:12:21.480 --> 00:12:23.740
the beginnings of tsunami territory.
506
00:12:25.160 --> 00:12:27.200
2006 was really rough for Republicans.
507
00:12:27.310 --> 00:12:28.230
2018,
508
00:12:28.490 --> 00:12:29.840
really rough for Republicans.
509
00:12:31.040 --> 00:12:34.510
I wouldn't call either one of those catastrophic.
510
00:12:34.690 --> 00:12:35.030
Like I,
511
00:12:35.160 --> 00:12:37.900
if 2006 or 2018 happens,
512
00:12:38.280 --> 00:12:39.460
I feel pretty well
513
00:12:39.860 --> 00:12:41.620
projected in my
514
00:12:41.870 --> 00:12:44.310
prediction market um positions that I have.
515
00:12:44.330 --> 00:12:45.070
And I've done this,
516
00:12:45.200 --> 00:12:47.020
I've gone through a bunch of different
517
00:12:47.320 --> 00:12:49.190
models and to test this because I wanna,
518
00:12:49.240 --> 00:12:52.770
I wanna make sure I have a risk tolerance model that I kind of run all my stuff through,
519
00:12:53.080 --> 00:12:54.300
just to make sure
520
00:12:54.440 --> 00:12:57.310
I don't have everything on one side and one
521
00:12:57.310 --> 00:12:59.530
little variable goes wrong and I lose everything.
522
00:12:59.560 --> 00:13:00.390
I don't want that.
523
00:13:00.810 --> 00:13:00.970
Um,
524
00:13:01.130 --> 00:13:04.270
now my profits will be a lot lower than I would like them to be
525
00:13:04.410 --> 00:13:04.580
if,
526
00:13:04.690 --> 00:13:07.360
if we go into 2006 or 2018,
527
00:13:07.650 --> 00:13:07.840
um,
528
00:13:08.010 --> 00:13:10.590
and I will not like the results of that election politically
529
00:13:10.730 --> 00:13:11.200
either.
530
00:13:11.490 --> 00:13:13.680
That will be bad news for conservative principles,
531
00:13:13.730 --> 00:13:15.550
which is something that I care about,
532
00:13:15.770 --> 00:13:16.000
um,
533
00:13:16.390 --> 00:13:18.720
regardless of whether you care or not about those though.
534
00:13:19.160 --> 00:13:19.270
Uh,
535
00:13:19.440 --> 00:13:22.260
what we're talking about here is how do you profit
536
00:13:22.280 --> 00:13:25.790
off of these elections and position yourself in a safe place
537
00:13:26.000 --> 00:13:26.470
so that you're,
538
00:13:26.560 --> 00:13:29.340
you're protected against outlier possibilities,
539
00:13:29.540 --> 00:13:30.900
but also can still see
540
00:13:31.080 --> 00:13:31.830
some profit.
541
00:13:32.000 --> 00:13:34.150
As I've said a million times on this show,
542
00:13:34.400 --> 00:13:36.790
we don't look at prediction markets as gambling.
543
00:13:37.040 --> 00:13:38.460
We don't look at prediction markets as,
544
00:13:38.720 --> 00:13:38.870
you know,
545
00:13:39.000 --> 00:13:39.560
YOLO,
546
00:13:39.720 --> 00:13:39.900
hey,
547
00:13:39.920 --> 00:13:41.430
100 to 1 shots all the time.
548
00:13:41.480 --> 00:13:42.420
That's not what we do here.
549
00:13:42.680 --> 00:13:44.070
If you can catch one of those,
550
00:13:44.280 --> 00:13:44.790
wonderful.
551
00:13:44.880 --> 00:13:46.750
We've caught stuff that's pretty similar to that,
552
00:13:46.800 --> 00:13:47.910
I don't know if 100 to 1.
553
00:13:48.460 --> 00:13:49.300
Um,
554
00:13:49.630 --> 00:13:49.740
yeah,
555
00:13:49.870 --> 00:13:50.020
I mean,
556
00:13:50.070 --> 00:13:50.700
I guess,
557
00:13:50.910 --> 00:13:50.980
yeah,
558
00:13:51.070 --> 00:13:51.180
I mean,
559
00:13:51.230 --> 00:13:52.540
we certainly caught a lot,
560
00:13:52.680 --> 00:13:53.020
uh,
561
00:13:53.670 --> 00:13:54.060
of really,
562
00:13:54.150 --> 00:13:54.810
really good,
563
00:13:55.110 --> 00:13:55.220
uh,
564
00:13:55.270 --> 00:13:55.660
victories.
565
00:13:55.790 --> 00:13:58.780
Certainly 10 and 20 to 1 multiple times over primary season.
566
00:14:01.130 --> 00:14:01.750
We
567
00:14:02.210 --> 00:14:05.720
want to look at this in a sober rational way.
568
00:14:05.770 --> 00:14:07.270
We want to look at
569
00:14:07.490 --> 00:14:09.680
uh these elections as great opportunities,
570
00:14:10.070 --> 00:14:11.600
depending on your risk tolerance to,
571
00:14:11.690 --> 00:14:12.950
to increase
572
00:14:13.130 --> 00:14:14.360
your wallet,
573
00:14:14.450 --> 00:14:15.360
to increase your pocketbook,
574
00:14:15.450 --> 00:14:16.600
to increase your portfolio,
575
00:14:16.690 --> 00:14:17.760
your investment accounts.
576
00:14:18.050 --> 00:14:18.280
You know,
577
00:14:18.410 --> 00:14:20.920
I think that prediction markets are a great piece
578
00:14:20.920 --> 00:14:23.840
of a prediction or of a uh investment portfolio.
579
00:14:24.130 --> 00:14:26.050
It's been part of mine for over 10 years.
580
00:14:26.590 --> 00:14:26.970
And
581
00:14:27.110 --> 00:14:28.960
what I've been able to do over these 10 years and we're,
582
00:14:28.990 --> 00:14:29.140
we're,
583
00:14:29.230 --> 00:14:32.060
we're doing together here on this show and on PredictableShow.com.
584
00:14:32.580 --> 00:14:33.520
is to build a
585
00:14:33.740 --> 00:14:37.120
uh uh a portfolio of positions in prediction markets that will
586
00:14:37.470 --> 00:14:39.550
certainly outdo what we're getting in,
587
00:14:39.700 --> 00:14:39.850
you know,
588
00:14:39.980 --> 00:14:40.820
bank accounts and,
589
00:14:40.840 --> 00:14:42.450
and most other investments.
590
00:14:42.580 --> 00:14:44.000
These opportunities are here
591
00:14:44.300 --> 00:14:44.580
and,
592
00:14:44.620 --> 00:14:45.070
you know,
593
00:14:45.780 --> 00:14:46.890
you don't hit every one of them.
594
00:14:47.060 --> 00:14:48.810
No one expects to hit every single one of them,
595
00:14:49.020 --> 00:14:50.970
but we hit almost all of them and we were up,
596
00:14:51.010 --> 00:14:52.840
up well over 90% during
597
00:14:52.980 --> 00:14:53.290
the,
598
00:14:53.340 --> 00:14:53.600
uh,
599
00:14:53.670 --> 00:14:54.690
primary season.
600
00:14:54.980 --> 00:14:55.890
And even on those,
601
00:14:55.980 --> 00:14:56.170
you know,
602
00:14:56.380 --> 00:14:57.250
bigger positions,
603
00:14:57.350 --> 00:14:58.650
we were almost 100%.
604
00:14:58.780 --> 00:14:58.930
I mean,
605
00:14:59.140 --> 00:15:00.670
I think we lost two of the,
606
00:15:00.830 --> 00:15:02.000
any position from
607
00:15:02.810 --> 00:15:03.830
Medium on up.
608
00:15:04.100 --> 00:15:05.620
We have 5 different position sizes,
609
00:15:05.650 --> 00:15:06.130
marker,
610
00:15:06.370 --> 00:15:06.520
small,
611
00:15:06.650 --> 00:15:06.880
medium,
612
00:15:07.010 --> 00:15:07.510
large,
613
00:15:07.770 --> 00:15:08.120
and,
614
00:15:08.290 --> 00:15:08.720
uh,
615
00:15:08.890 --> 00:15:09.520
all in.
616
00:15:10.010 --> 00:15:11.370
We lost 2 medium positions,
617
00:15:11.410 --> 00:15:12.030
I believe.
618
00:15:12.330 --> 00:15:13.910
One of them was Lindsey Graham,
619
00:15:14.090 --> 00:15:14.770
RIP.
620
00:15:15.130 --> 00:15:15.280
Uh,
621
00:15:15.450 --> 00:15:17.160
we had him winning by more than 20,
622
00:15:17.210 --> 00:15:17.850
and I think he lost,
623
00:15:17.960 --> 00:15:18.950
he won by
624
00:15:19.550 --> 00:15:20.770
less than that considerably.
625
00:15:20.930 --> 00:15:22.560
I think it was like 14 or something.
626
00:15:23.370 --> 00:15:24.630
And the other one was,
627
00:15:24.880 --> 00:15:25.040
uh,
628
00:15:25.210 --> 00:15:26.130
Francesca Hong,
629
00:15:26.330 --> 00:15:29.470
which actually was a small position until I increased it
630
00:15:29.690 --> 00:15:30.720
while the votes were being counted.
631
00:15:30.770 --> 00:15:33.280
So that was really just completely my fault.
632
00:15:33.380 --> 00:15:33.900
Anyway,
633
00:15:34.410 --> 00:15:35.590
let me give you a little bit more of the,
634
00:15:35.810 --> 00:15:37.560
of the context of what we're talking about from Nate
635
00:15:37.560 --> 00:15:39.270
Silver before we go into the breakdown of it.
636
00:15:39.740 --> 00:15:40.180
Um,
637
00:15:40.330 --> 00:15:42.040
he talks about other swings have been bigger
638
00:15:42.370 --> 00:15:45.880
post-World War Two record is 17.4 points in 2010.
639
00:15:46.090 --> 00:15:47.830
That's the Tea Party election.
640
00:15:48.060 --> 00:15:48.320
By the way,
641
00:15:48.540 --> 00:15:51.010
Nate Silver was the first person I remember
642
00:15:51.210 --> 00:15:52.440
even talking about that.
643
00:15:52.890 --> 00:15:52.960
Uh,
644
00:15:53.130 --> 00:15:54.440
reading all this analysis when he was,
645
00:15:54.610 --> 00:15:56.370
this is before he was well known at all,
646
00:15:56.610 --> 00:15:57.550
but he was breaking down,
647
00:15:57.680 --> 00:15:59.930
it was right after the Barack Obama election,
648
00:16:00.290 --> 00:16:01.160
and everyone was like,
649
00:16:01.250 --> 00:16:03.260
are the Republicans just gonna be a regional party?
650
00:16:03.330 --> 00:16:04.630
Can they even survive?
651
00:16:04.740 --> 00:16:07.020
Is this a post-Republican era?
652
00:16:07.490 --> 00:16:08.120
And he was like,
653
00:16:08.210 --> 00:16:08.600
actually,
654
00:16:08.730 --> 00:16:09.030
like,
655
00:16:09.170 --> 00:16:11.320
it's really common that we're gonna come back the other way,
656
00:16:11.370 --> 00:16:13.430
and I would not be surprised to see a massive
657
00:16:13.580 --> 00:16:15.560
swing the other direction.
658
00:16:15.730 --> 00:16:16.510
He called that one
659
00:16:16.770 --> 00:16:17.010
really,
660
00:16:17.210 --> 00:16:20.090
really early when Republicans were basically trying to hang themselves off of,
661
00:16:20.180 --> 00:16:20.190
uh,
662
00:16:20.410 --> 00:16:20.640
you know,
663
00:16:20.820 --> 00:16:20.920
uh,
664
00:16:21.010 --> 00:16:21.520
bridges.
665
00:16:22.320 --> 00:16:22.510
Um,
666
00:16:22.680 --> 00:16:22.830
OK,
667
00:16:23.000 --> 00:16:23.180
so,
668
00:16:23.290 --> 00:16:23.510
uh,
669
00:16:23.760 --> 00:16:25.490
17.4% in 2010,
670
00:16:25.950 --> 00:16:26.200
um,
671
00:16:26.600 --> 00:16:28.940
then that reflects how quickly Barack Obama
672
00:16:28.940 --> 00:16:31.280
went from hugely popular to quite unpopular.
673
00:16:31.600 --> 00:16:33.630
Obama brought big congressional majorities with him,
674
00:16:33.720 --> 00:16:35.060
sweeping into office in,
675
00:16:35.170 --> 00:16:35.180
uh,
676
00:16:35.280 --> 00:16:35.950
2008.
677
00:16:36.120 --> 00:16:36.790
By 2010,
678
00:16:37.080 --> 00:16:38.970
Democrats had lost a special election
679
00:16:39.120 --> 00:16:41.740
to replace Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts.
680
00:16:41.840 --> 00:16:43.170
So you see these waves,
681
00:16:43.360 --> 00:16:44.950
I mean that was even in the midterm.
682
00:16:45.200 --> 00:16:46.300
These waves happen
683
00:16:46.470 --> 00:16:46.960
quickly.
684
00:16:47.160 --> 00:16:48.390
He's got the picture of Scott Brown,
685
00:16:48.410 --> 00:16:48.550
who,
686
00:16:48.570 --> 00:16:48.790
by the way,
687
00:16:48.840 --> 00:16:50.190
ran this cycle as well,
688
00:16:50.320 --> 00:16:50.430
uh,
689
00:16:50.640 --> 00:16:50.750
but,
690
00:16:50.840 --> 00:16:50.890
uh,
691
00:16:50.960 --> 00:16:52.030
was unsuccessful.
692
00:16:52.390 --> 00:16:52.500
Uh,
693
00:16:52.590 --> 00:16:53.860
in his run in New Hampshire.
694
00:16:54.110 --> 00:16:54.170
Uh,
695
00:16:54.310 --> 00:16:56.540
1994 swing was bigger than the one we're projecting this year,
696
00:16:56.670 --> 00:16:58.050
so was 1966,
697
00:16:58.350 --> 00:16:58.490
uh,
698
00:16:58.670 --> 00:16:59.470
1974,
699
00:16:59.540 --> 00:17:00.900
and 1946.
700
00:17:01.360 --> 00:17:02.270
So basically saying,
701
00:17:02.340 --> 00:17:02.780
hey,
702
00:17:03.110 --> 00:17:03.950
these things can happen.
703
00:17:04.079 --> 00:17:05.670
One more note on this from Nate Silver.
704
00:17:05.920 --> 00:17:06.280
Flipper,
705
00:17:06.480 --> 00:17:06.599
again,
706
00:17:06.640 --> 00:17:07.660
the name of his model,
707
00:17:07.760 --> 00:17:08.630
does look at polls,
708
00:17:08.650 --> 00:17:08.950
of course,
709
00:17:09.200 --> 00:17:10.550
including Trump's approval rating,
710
00:17:10.720 --> 00:17:12.060
and the polls have been terrible,
711
00:17:12.319 --> 00:17:13.589
those polls have been terrible
712
00:17:13.690 --> 00:17:14.660
for Republicans.
713
00:17:14.839 --> 00:17:15.180
Still,
714
00:17:15.319 --> 00:17:16.990
in predicting a 10.5
715
00:17:17.300 --> 00:17:18.900
point shift toward Democrats,
716
00:17:19.040 --> 00:17:21.760
it's only projecting a swing about 3 points larger
717
00:17:21.990 --> 00:17:24.349
than the historical average of 7.4 points.
718
00:17:24.670 --> 00:17:26.960
And that seems pretty reasonable when you look at everything else.
719
00:17:27.220 --> 00:17:28.400
Trump is a lame duck.
720
00:17:28.540 --> 00:17:29.650
He's 80 years old.
721
00:17:29.860 --> 00:17:31.410
We're involved in the exactly sort of the
722
00:17:31.410 --> 00:17:33.450
Middle Eastern war he promised wouldn't happen.
723
00:17:33.740 --> 00:17:35.850
Gas costs almost $450 a gallon.
724
00:17:36.060 --> 00:17:37.730
He had a bad mitch in 2018,
725
00:17:37.820 --> 00:17:39.330
even when people thought the economy was good.
726
00:17:39.460 --> 00:17:40.040
And that's all,
727
00:17:40.180 --> 00:17:40.330
you know,
728
00:17:40.380 --> 00:17:40.890
a lot of that stuff,
729
00:17:40.980 --> 00:17:41.050
yeah,
730
00:17:41.220 --> 00:17:43.400
of course there's some opinion and takes on in there.
731
00:17:43.700 --> 00:17:43.990
Um,
732
00:17:44.340 --> 00:17:45.780
people have different opinions on Trump and,
733
00:17:45.820 --> 00:17:46.570
and how he's doing.
734
00:17:47.500 --> 00:17:47.810
But you know,
735
00:17:47.860 --> 00:17:49.460
there's no opinion on what the gas prices are,
736
00:17:49.500 --> 00:17:50.240
they are what they are.
737
00:17:51.080 --> 00:17:51.720
And
738
00:17:52.040 --> 00:17:55.030
they are massively affecting this situation right now.
739
00:17:55.100 --> 00:17:55.990
I wanna show you a graph.
740
00:17:56.040 --> 00:17:57.250
This is from the argument,
741
00:17:57.600 --> 00:17:57.870
um,
742
00:17:58.160 --> 00:17:58.310
uh,
743
00:17:58.360 --> 00:18:00.350
they do a great job breaking down election stuff as well,
744
00:18:00.440 --> 00:18:01.380
and you see here,
745
00:18:01.570 --> 00:18:03.940
what we see is a blue and a red line that kind of just
746
00:18:04.400 --> 00:18:04.940
go,
747
00:18:05.000 --> 00:18:05.150
uh,
748
00:18:05.200 --> 00:18:06.350
as opposed to each other,
749
00:18:06.440 --> 00:18:06.600
right?
750
00:18:06.680 --> 00:18:07.750
Like when one goes down,
751
00:18:07.800 --> 00:18:08.620
the other one goes up,
752
00:18:08.720 --> 00:18:09.990
and vice versa.
753
00:18:10.630 --> 00:18:11.180
These two things,
754
00:18:11.310 --> 00:18:12.300
it looks like it's just like,
755
00:18:12.390 --> 00:18:12.460
oh,
756
00:18:12.550 --> 00:18:13.460
approval and disapproval,
757
00:18:13.590 --> 00:18:13.700
right?
758
00:18:13.790 --> 00:18:15.950
Like that's how you'd normally see one of these charts where,
759
00:18:16.190 --> 00:18:16.340
uh,
760
00:18:16.470 --> 00:18:17.340
when something is falling,
761
00:18:17.390 --> 00:18:17.980
the other side is,
762
00:18:18.100 --> 00:18:18.220
if,
763
00:18:18.310 --> 00:18:19.540
if approval is falling,
764
00:18:19.790 --> 00:18:20.700
disapproval is rising,
765
00:18:20.790 --> 00:18:20.940
right?
766
00:18:21.110 --> 00:18:22.440
That's not what this measures at all.
767
00:18:22.590 --> 00:18:25.080
What it measures is Donald Trump's approval rating
768
00:18:25.630 --> 00:18:27.130
versus gas prices.
769
00:18:27.590 --> 00:18:28.490
And you see,
770
00:18:28.630 --> 00:18:30.020
as gas prices go up,
771
00:18:31.050 --> 00:18:32.710
Trump's approval rating comes down.
772
00:18:32.890 --> 00:18:34.840
Then gas prices drop for a little bit,
773
00:18:35.130 --> 00:18:36.850
Trump's approval rating bounces back.
774
00:18:37.050 --> 00:18:37.400
And this is,
775
00:18:37.490 --> 00:18:37.610
you know,
776
00:18:37.730 --> 00:18:38.280
month to month,
777
00:18:38.330 --> 00:18:39.710
this can happen in a few weeks.
778
00:18:39.890 --> 00:18:40.960
And then as you've seen recently,
779
00:18:41.010 --> 00:18:45.050
as prices have gone from 415 a gallon up to about 450 a gallon,
780
00:18:45.460 --> 00:18:48.600
Donald Trump's approval rating has dropped from -20 to -25.
781
00:18:49.830 --> 00:18:51.830
These gas prices are massively impactful.
782
00:18:53.270 --> 00:18:56.040
If Donald Trump wants to minimize the damage here,
783
00:18:57.110 --> 00:19:00.170
Getting those gas prices down any way he can would be a great start.
784
00:19:00.510 --> 00:19:01.380
I don't know how you do that.
785
00:19:01.470 --> 00:19:02.610
That's not easy to do.
786
00:19:02.750 --> 00:19:03.420
And of course,
787
00:19:03.510 --> 00:19:03.660
you know,
788
00:19:03.710 --> 00:19:05.080
the closer we get to the election,
789
00:19:05.470 --> 00:19:05.900
first of all,
790
00:19:06.110 --> 00:19:07.190
people are already casting
791
00:19:07.430 --> 00:19:08.660
votes as we discussed earlier,
792
00:19:08.710 --> 00:19:09.410
and secondly,
793
00:19:09.790 --> 00:19:09.860
you,
794
00:19:09.990 --> 00:19:11.350
you're at a position where
795
00:19:11.620 --> 00:19:13.620
people might not feel the impact of a drop.
796
00:19:13.790 --> 00:19:13.940
You know,
797
00:19:14.010 --> 00:19:14.100
you,
798
00:19:14.270 --> 00:19:15.260
if you drop
799
00:19:15.390 --> 00:19:15.650
the,
800
00:19:15.790 --> 00:19:16.780
the gas prices,
801
00:19:16.880 --> 00:19:18.130
a half week
802
00:19:18.350 --> 00:19:19.140
before the election.
803
00:19:20.180 --> 00:19:22.010
There's still gonna be pricing in what it was.
804
00:19:22.220 --> 00:19:23.900
You need to have a few weeks running,
805
00:19:24.140 --> 00:19:24.850
where people can say,
806
00:19:24.940 --> 00:19:25.130
OK,
807
00:19:25.260 --> 00:19:25.770
maybe this is,
808
00:19:25.880 --> 00:19:26.410
maybe he's right,
809
00:19:26.500 --> 00:19:27.760
maybe this is gonna go away,
810
00:19:27.940 --> 00:19:28.000
uh,
811
00:19:28.060 --> 00:19:29.800
it's not gonna be a long-term situation.
812
00:19:30.100 --> 00:19:32.490
And when I look for risk opportunities,
813
00:19:32.580 --> 00:19:34.610
the places where I'm most scared,
814
00:19:34.970 --> 00:19:35.080
Uh,
815
00:19:35.250 --> 00:19:35.440
where,
816
00:19:35.570 --> 00:19:35.800
where,
817
00:19:36.090 --> 00:19:36.400
where,
818
00:19:36.530 --> 00:19:36.920
um,
819
00:19:37.170 --> 00:19:37.640
uh,
820
00:19:37.890 --> 00:19:38.760
you look around and say,
821
00:19:38.810 --> 00:19:39.120
gosh,
822
00:19:39.240 --> 00:19:40.180
if this continues,
823
00:19:40.330 --> 00:19:42.640
maybe Republicans in bright right states are,
824
00:19:42.940 --> 00:19:43.080
uh,
825
00:19:43.250 --> 00:19:44.230
very vulnerable.
826
00:19:44.490 --> 00:19:46.860
You look at this particular map,
827
00:19:47.050 --> 00:19:47.590
um,
828
00:19:47.850 --> 00:19:48.160
and I,
829
00:19:48.250 --> 00:19:49.670
I think this is an impactful one.
830
00:19:49.930 --> 00:19:50.790
What is the,
831
00:19:50.930 --> 00:19:51.410
uh,
832
00:19:51.770 --> 00:19:53.540
what's the dependence on diesel fuel?
833
00:19:54.430 --> 00:19:55.180
In this country,
834
00:19:55.390 --> 00:19:56.240
where is it most?
835
00:19:56.310 --> 00:19:58.540
The number one state in the union is Alaska.
836
00:19:59.690 --> 00:20:01.560
You also see North Dakota in there,
837
00:20:01.650 --> 00:20:03.070
you got a little bit of Wyoming,
838
00:20:03.170 --> 00:20:04.430
you got some Nebraska,
839
00:20:04.530 --> 00:20:07.430
you've got a lot of those Midwestern states,
840
00:20:07.770 --> 00:20:07.900
uh,
841
00:20:08.050 --> 00:20:09.090
center of the country,
842
00:20:09.440 --> 00:20:11.440
really affected by diesel fuel.
843
00:20:11.610 --> 00:20:13.280
Those prices are at record highs.
844
00:20:13.450 --> 00:20:14.910
People are pissed off about it.
845
00:20:15.620 --> 00:20:16.610
And you,
846
00:20:16.740 --> 00:20:16.890
you know,
847
00:20:16.980 --> 00:20:18.920
you wonder whether those states.
848
00:20:19.180 --> 00:20:19.530
Will be,
849
00:20:19.620 --> 00:20:22.800
it's one of the reasons why I took a position on Mary Peltola in
850
00:20:22.940 --> 00:20:23.410
Alaska,
851
00:20:23.460 --> 00:20:24.120
even though I'm not
852
00:20:24.220 --> 00:20:26.270
100% convinced she's winning there,
853
00:20:26.820 --> 00:20:28.120
I like the hedge
854
00:20:28.520 --> 00:20:30.490
against real catastrophe.
855
00:20:30.540 --> 00:20:30.690
I mean,
856
00:20:30.860 --> 00:20:32.690
Republicans should be winning seats in Alaska.
857
00:20:32.780 --> 00:20:33.930
That should not be hard,
858
00:20:34.260 --> 00:20:34.380
uh,
859
00:20:34.510 --> 00:20:34.840
but
860
00:20:34.940 --> 00:20:35.680
in this environment,
861
00:20:35.700 --> 00:20:36.690
it is gonna be hard,
862
00:20:36.860 --> 00:20:38.810
and I don't know what's gonna happen there.
863
00:20:38.900 --> 00:20:42.500
And if things go even more toward the blue side of the argument,
864
00:20:42.900 --> 00:20:43.400
well,
865
00:20:43.900 --> 00:20:44.930
then we're gonna be seeing.
866
00:20:45.420 --> 00:20:45.680
Uh,
867
00:20:45.940 --> 00:20:50.000
those types of races maybe look a little bit more obvious here in the coming weeks.
868
00:20:50.260 --> 00:20:51.770
Let me show you a couple of new more polls because,
869
00:20:51.860 --> 00:20:52.010
you know,
870
00:20:52.100 --> 00:20:53.770
as Nate Silver was talking about,
871
00:20:53.820 --> 00:20:53.970
hey,
872
00:20:54.060 --> 00:20:54.330
this is,
873
00:20:54.460 --> 00:20:55.720
this could be catastrophic,
874
00:20:56.020 --> 00:20:56.090
uh,
875
00:20:56.180 --> 00:20:57.120
for Republicans,
876
00:20:57.340 --> 00:20:58.490
we're seeing numbers as high as,
877
00:20:58.540 --> 00:20:58.650
you know,
878
00:20:58.700 --> 00:20:59.530
10 and 12.
879
00:20:59.660 --> 00:21:01.400
Let me give you a couple other pieces of evidence.
880
00:21:01.540 --> 00:21:01.610
Uh,
881
00:21:01.720 --> 00:21:02.300
YouGov
882
00:21:02.420 --> 00:21:03.090
has a new poll out.
883
00:21:03.340 --> 00:21:05.780
Democrats lead in the congressional elections reaches another new high.
884
00:21:05.940 --> 00:21:07.690
We showed you this chart the other day and I was like,
885
00:21:07.820 --> 00:21:08.210
wow,
886
00:21:08.300 --> 00:21:09.200
that's crazy.
887
00:21:09.620 --> 00:21:11.000
Look how crazy it is now.
888
00:21:11.500 --> 00:21:12.480
Registered voters.
889
00:21:13.130 --> 00:21:13.790
Are at,
890
00:21:13.970 --> 00:21:14.400
um,
891
00:21:14.530 --> 00:21:14.890
uh,
892
00:21:15.090 --> 00:21:15.280
you know,
893
00:21:15.330 --> 00:21:16.160
have been rising.
894
00:21:16.180 --> 00:21:17.380
You can see the rise there.
895
00:21:17.690 --> 00:21:18.710
But as we pointed out,
896
00:21:18.930 --> 00:21:19.840
part of the rise,
897
00:21:20.010 --> 00:21:22.010
part of the optimism for the Democrats are,
898
00:21:22.030 --> 00:21:24.390
are these polls changing over
899
00:21:24.530 --> 00:21:26.260
from a registered voter model
900
00:21:26.410 --> 00:21:28.360
to a likely voters model.
901
00:21:29.290 --> 00:21:29.920
What does that mean?
902
00:21:30.090 --> 00:21:30.280
Well,
903
00:21:30.570 --> 00:21:32.320
registered voters are just basically a question,
904
00:21:32.490 --> 00:21:33.270
are you registered?
905
00:21:33.730 --> 00:21:34.590
Likely voters,
906
00:21:34.810 --> 00:21:34.840
uh,
907
00:21:34.970 --> 00:21:35.160
or,
908
00:21:35.250 --> 00:21:37.660
or could be they're going off a registered voter list to make
909
00:21:37.910 --> 00:21:39.460
list to make the phone calls in the first place.
910
00:21:39.650 --> 00:21:40.450
Likely voters though,
911
00:21:40.490 --> 00:21:41.730
is there's another screen to that.
912
00:21:41.850 --> 00:21:42.350
Is it,
913
00:21:42.610 --> 00:21:42.760
uh,
914
00:21:43.130 --> 00:21:44.200
sometimes some places just say,
915
00:21:44.260 --> 00:21:45.200
are you definitely gonna vote?
916
00:21:45.290 --> 00:21:45.960
And if they say yes,
917
00:21:46.020 --> 00:21:46.960
they're a likely voter.
918
00:21:47.530 --> 00:21:49.680
Some people look at election history.
919
00:21:49.770 --> 00:21:49.840
Hey,
920
00:21:49.950 --> 00:21:52.990
we noticed you've only voted in one of the last 4 midterms.
921
00:21:53.250 --> 00:21:55.040
You're probably not that likely a voter,
922
00:21:55.060 --> 00:21:56.540
even if you're telling me that you are.
923
00:21:57.570 --> 00:21:59.000
That is a big difference,
924
00:21:59.090 --> 00:21:59.680
but you see,
925
00:21:59.850 --> 00:22:00.940
Democrats are performing much,
926
00:22:01.090 --> 00:22:01.910
much better
927
00:22:02.210 --> 00:22:03.680
in the likely voter measures,
928
00:22:03.730 --> 00:22:06.680
and that's part of the reason why I think there's so much optimism
929
00:22:07.010 --> 00:22:09.440
for Democrats right now over Republicans.
930
00:22:09.850 --> 00:22:12.400
You see in this most recent result from YouGov,
931
00:22:12.650 --> 00:22:15.150
that registered voters actually ticked down
932
00:22:15.330 --> 00:22:17.040
from about 7 to 6%,
933
00:22:17.170 --> 00:22:18.400
so Democrats plus 7.
934
00:22:18.750 --> 00:22:18.820
Uh,
935
00:22:18.950 --> 00:22:20.450
down to Democrats plus 6.
936
00:22:20.910 --> 00:22:21.760
Democrats plus 6,
937
00:22:21.830 --> 00:22:23.970
if that's where it really was on election day,
938
00:22:24.350 --> 00:22:24.650
is,
939
00:22:24.790 --> 00:22:25.060
you know,
940
00:22:25.270 --> 00:22:25.740
a bad year,
941
00:22:25.830 --> 00:22:28.410
but it's not as bad as 2018 or 2006.
942
00:22:29.310 --> 00:22:30.420
A likely voters,
943
00:22:30.550 --> 00:22:31.530
the likely voters number,
944
00:22:31.630 --> 00:22:32.220
as you see though,
945
00:22:32.270 --> 00:22:33.490
is skyrocketing.
946
00:22:33.670 --> 00:22:37.700
This could be an indication of Democratic passion and enthusiasm for this election
947
00:22:37.830 --> 00:22:39.810
that maybe hasn't kicked in for Republicans.
948
00:22:40.040 --> 00:22:44.290
What we've seen recently on that measure is usually by election day
949
00:22:44.620 --> 00:22:45.250
that has
950
00:22:45.380 --> 00:22:46.740
calmed down and evened out
951
00:22:46.900 --> 00:22:50.260
where Republicans or whatever party is behind in enthusiasm.
952
00:22:50.870 --> 00:22:53.260
Winds up getting pissed off about the election and coming back.
953
00:22:53.510 --> 00:22:54.410
But the new mark,
954
00:22:54.490 --> 00:22:55.620
if you show that chart,
955
00:22:55.670 --> 00:22:56.570
the new mark
956
00:22:56.780 --> 00:22:57.510
for uh
957
00:22:57.710 --> 00:23:01.300
Democrats uh in the likely voter measure is +16.
958
00:23:03.200 --> 00:23:04.430
Plus 16.
959
00:23:04.600 --> 00:23:06.500
Plus 16 is off the charts.
960
00:23:06.880 --> 00:23:07.110
It's,
961
00:23:07.200 --> 00:23:07.360
I mean,
962
00:23:07.560 --> 00:23:08.710
it goes back beyond every,
963
00:23:08.730 --> 00:23:10.460
every historical example.
964
00:23:10.840 --> 00:23:11.230
I think,
965
00:23:11.400 --> 00:23:11.790
uh,
966
00:23:12.120 --> 00:23:13.230
Silver referred to here,
967
00:23:13.320 --> 00:23:14.270
what was the biggest one.
968
00:23:15.120 --> 00:23:15.940
Was the biggest one,
969
00:23:16.600 --> 00:23:17.210
Tea Party?
970
00:23:17.770 --> 00:23:19.520
Tea Party was 17.4%.
971
00:23:19.650 --> 00:23:21.110
So you're talking about Tea Party
972
00:23:21.370 --> 00:23:21.990
level
973
00:23:22.300 --> 00:23:22.960
sort of differences.
974
00:23:23.090 --> 00:23:23.800
Now that's one poll,
975
00:23:23.880 --> 00:23:24.520
it's not the average,
976
00:23:24.570 --> 00:23:25.550
it's not the final result,
977
00:23:25.650 --> 00:23:26.010
obviously,
978
00:23:26.130 --> 00:23:26.430
those,
979
00:23:26.450 --> 00:23:29.750
that was the actual final result at 17.4 points in the Tea Party election.
980
00:23:30.090 --> 00:23:31.180
Lots of things can change.
981
00:23:31.330 --> 00:23:33.400
There's still multiple weeks before the election.
982
00:23:33.650 --> 00:23:35.790
Prices could come down if there was some sort of
983
00:23:36.130 --> 00:23:38.840
healing of some sort in Iran.
984
00:23:39.240 --> 00:23:40.600
That would go a long way.
985
00:23:40.800 --> 00:23:43.530
There's a lot of stuff to look at and a lot of things that can change.
986
00:23:43.640 --> 00:23:44.670
One other poll just came out,
987
00:23:44.760 --> 00:23:45.670
this is from Quinnipiac.
988
00:23:45.730 --> 00:23:45.870
Again,
989
00:23:45.940 --> 00:23:46.340
Quinnipiac,
990
00:23:46.360 --> 00:23:47.710
not the most favorable pollster,
991
00:23:47.960 --> 00:23:48.070
uh,
992
00:23:48.240 --> 00:23:48.460
to,
993
00:23:48.560 --> 00:23:48.710
uh,
994
00:23:48.880 --> 00:23:49.350
conservatives,
995
00:23:49.370 --> 00:23:50.790
even though they are a legit pollster.
996
00:23:51.040 --> 00:23:51.110
Uh,
997
00:23:51.280 --> 00:23:52.510
12 points they find.
998
00:23:52.600 --> 00:23:54.660
Republicans trail Democrats by 12 points
999
00:23:54.840 --> 00:23:56.720
in the battle for the House,
1000
00:23:57.090 --> 00:23:57.190
uh,
1001
00:23:57.290 --> 00:23:57.980
and that is,
1002
00:23:58.000 --> 00:23:58.060
uh,
1003
00:23:58.280 --> 00:23:58.970
another big,
1004
00:23:59.080 --> 00:24:01.050
big margin approaching
1005
00:24:01.720 --> 00:24:03.760
somewhere between 2018
1006
00:24:03.880 --> 00:24:05.420
and 2010 levels.
1007
00:24:06.140 --> 00:24:07.650
And it's hard to kind of square this with some
1008
00:24:07.650 --> 00:24:09.200
of the other polling that has been coming out.
1009
00:24:11.400 --> 00:24:15.710
The generic ballot is really useful to give you a tone and a climate.
1010
00:24:15.880 --> 00:24:16.910
It's like a climate check,
1011
00:24:17.040 --> 00:24:17.230
right?
1012
00:24:17.410 --> 00:24:19.310
What's the temperature of this election?
1013
00:24:19.360 --> 00:24:20.910
What's the current of the river?
1014
00:24:21.000 --> 00:24:22.390
What way is it pulling?
1015
00:24:22.560 --> 00:24:23.760
That's what the generic ballot
1016
00:24:23.920 --> 00:24:25.960
often is able to tell you.
1017
00:24:26.160 --> 00:24:27.020
When you look at
1018
00:24:27.200 --> 00:24:29.150
the polling that's coming out in specific states,
1019
00:24:29.200 --> 00:24:30.180
and these are states that
1020
00:24:30.400 --> 00:24:31.540
you'd be worried about
1021
00:24:31.760 --> 00:24:35.350
in this environment of 16 and 17 point margins.
1022
00:24:35.820 --> 00:24:36.850
Are states like Iowa.
1023
00:24:36.940 --> 00:24:38.050
Let me show you that this is all,
1024
00:24:38.120 --> 00:24:39.850
these are all polls that came out in the last 24 hours.
1025
00:24:39.980 --> 00:24:40.490
Iowa,
1026
00:24:40.700 --> 00:24:41.610
Ashley Hinson
1027
00:24:41.770 --> 00:24:42.890
is up 2
1028
00:24:43.060 --> 00:24:43.930
over the Democrat
1029
00:24:44.220 --> 00:24:45.000
in Iowa,
1030
00:24:45.300 --> 00:24:45.460
um,
1031
00:24:45.620 --> 00:24:48.250
and in both versions of the Quantas poll,
1032
00:24:48.330 --> 00:24:49.250
she's up 2.
1033
00:24:49.580 --> 00:24:50.730
This one's even crazier.
1034
00:24:50.980 --> 00:24:52.060
Peggy Flanagan,
1035
00:24:52.580 --> 00:24:53.210
the Democrat,
1036
00:24:53.340 --> 00:24:54.830
is only up by 1
1037
00:24:54.940 --> 00:24:56.410
over Michelle Tafoya,
1038
00:24:56.620 --> 00:24:57.530
the Republican.
1039
00:24:57.800 --> 00:24:59.310
I've talked about Tafoya before.
1040
00:24:59.360 --> 00:25:00.660
I think she's a good candidate.
1041
00:25:00.720 --> 00:25:03.310
I do not expect her to win this race in this environment.
1042
00:25:03.560 --> 00:25:03.790
However,
1043
00:25:03.880 --> 00:25:06.460
she's showing herself to be very competitive there.
1044
00:25:06.760 --> 00:25:07.350
And Flanagan,
1045
00:25:07.440 --> 00:25:07.980
who is,
1046
00:25:08.320 --> 00:25:08.470
you know,
1047
00:25:08.710 --> 00:25:08.720
uh,
1048
00:25:08.750 --> 00:25:08.760
uh,
1049
00:25:08.880 --> 00:25:09.600
pretty far left,
1050
00:25:09.720 --> 00:25:10.710
like she's not quite,
1051
00:25:10.840 --> 00:25:12.470
she doesn't call herself a democratic socialist,
1052
00:25:12.560 --> 00:25:13.870
but her primary election,
1053
00:25:13.920 --> 00:25:14.350
which by the way,
1054
00:25:14.400 --> 00:25:15.340
we made good money on,
1055
00:25:15.680 --> 00:25:16.380
was sort of the,
1056
00:25:16.440 --> 00:25:16.550
uh,
1057
00:25:16.840 --> 00:25:19.260
Democratic socialist versus the more standard Democrat,
1058
00:25:19.500 --> 00:25:20.740
and that played out in the way that it
1059
00:25:20.740 --> 00:25:22.610
played out in many other states around the country.
1060
00:25:22.730 --> 00:25:22.810
We,
1061
00:25:22.920 --> 00:25:23.070
you know,
1062
00:25:23.160 --> 00:25:24.010
we're not geniuses here,
1063
00:25:24.040 --> 00:25:25.180
we just noticed that trend
1064
00:25:25.400 --> 00:25:27.030
and we're able to profit off of that election.
1065
00:25:27.640 --> 00:25:29.550
Is Flanagan 2 left for Minnesota?
1066
00:25:29.680 --> 00:25:29.750
I,
1067
00:25:29.840 --> 00:25:30.310
I,
1068
00:25:30.480 --> 00:25:31.800
I still am not a believer
1069
00:25:32.080 --> 00:25:33.390
that she's gonna lose that race.
1070
00:25:33.680 --> 00:25:34.300
However,
1071
00:25:35.000 --> 00:25:35.870
only 1 point.
1072
00:25:36.570 --> 00:25:37.120
It's interesting,
1073
00:25:37.170 --> 00:25:38.640
and how can that be happening in an
1074
00:25:38.640 --> 00:25:41.300
environment where we're looking at all-time wave categories?
1075
00:25:41.330 --> 00:25:42.360
It doesn't make any sense.
1076
00:25:42.610 --> 00:25:44.240
Candidate quality does matter.
1077
00:25:44.370 --> 00:25:45.670
Individual races do matter.
1078
00:25:45.930 --> 00:25:47.490
Local state races do matter.
1079
00:25:47.850 --> 00:25:49.650
Another thing you'll find that does matter,
1080
00:25:49.890 --> 00:25:50.040
uh,
1081
00:25:50.170 --> 00:25:50.480
frankly,
1082
00:25:50.530 --> 00:25:52.280
when it comes to governor of Minnesota,
1083
00:25:52.450 --> 00:25:54.430
is how terrible Tim Walls is.
1084
00:25:54.610 --> 00:25:56.080
That is just a real thing that people in
1085
00:25:56.080 --> 00:25:58.120
Minnesota have to deal with on a regular basis.
1086
00:25:58.360 --> 00:25:59.280
Scandals everywhere,
1087
00:25:59.410 --> 00:26:01.280
the fact that he's just absolutely terrible,
1088
00:26:01.530 --> 00:26:01.650
uh,
1089
00:26:01.730 --> 00:26:02.270
the fact that,
1090
00:26:02.410 --> 00:26:02.560
I mean,
1091
00:26:02.610 --> 00:26:04.060
that's just science.
1092
00:26:05.160 --> 00:26:05.630
Frankly,
1093
00:26:05.810 --> 00:26:05.910
uh,
1094
00:26:06.000 --> 00:26:06.900
Tim Wall sucks.
1095
00:26:07.080 --> 00:26:07.190
Uh,
1096
00:26:07.360 --> 00:26:07.730
so
1097
00:26:07.890 --> 00:26:08.190
that is,
1098
00:26:08.240 --> 00:26:08.810
I think,
1099
00:26:09.040 --> 00:26:11.550
probably what's keeping that race mostly close and combined
1100
00:26:11.550 --> 00:26:13.850
with the fact that Tafoya is a good communicator and
1101
00:26:14.080 --> 00:26:14.260
And a,
1102
00:26:14.310 --> 00:26:15.190
and a good candidate.
1103
00:26:15.430 --> 00:26:15.900
So anyway,
1104
00:26:15.950 --> 00:26:16.650
that's a close one.
1105
00:26:16.790 --> 00:26:20.090
You also have Michigan with El Sayed leading by 7 over Rodgers.
1106
00:26:20.270 --> 00:26:20.320
Uh,
1107
00:26:20.430 --> 00:26:20.740
but again,
1108
00:26:20.930 --> 00:26:21.540
Texas here.
1109
00:26:21.670 --> 00:26:21.740
Now,
1110
00:26:21.790 --> 00:26:23.380
this is sponsored by Ken Paxton,
1111
00:26:23.460 --> 00:26:24.810
so you got to take it with a grain of salt,
1112
00:26:24.950 --> 00:26:26.010
but he's up 3
1113
00:26:26.190 --> 00:26:26.730
in that race,
1114
00:26:26.830 --> 00:26:27.780
Ken Paxton winning.
1115
00:26:28.090 --> 00:26:28.200
Uh,
1116
00:26:28.330 --> 00:26:31.200
Ohio has a big data poll with Sherrod Brown only up by,
1117
00:26:31.370 --> 00:26:31.780
it says
1118
00:26:31.890 --> 00:26:33.790
it's 3 or 4 depending on how you're rounding
1119
00:26:33.930 --> 00:26:34.310
there,
1120
00:26:34.530 --> 00:26:34.600
uh,
1121
00:26:34.730 --> 00:26:37.400
Massachusetts mark you plus 26 is of course what you expect.
1122
00:26:37.650 --> 00:26:39.440
Bottom line though is that there are some good
1123
00:26:39.440 --> 00:26:42.030
polling for Republicans that keeps popping into this picture.
1124
00:26:42.130 --> 00:26:44.200
This is not universally bad for Republicans,
1125
00:26:44.370 --> 00:26:45.120
and there are reasons.
1126
00:26:45.370 --> 00:26:46.750
Understand and believe,
1127
00:26:47.050 --> 00:26:47.170
uh,
1128
00:26:47.290 --> 00:26:47.840
that the,
1129
00:26:47.930 --> 00:26:48.160
you know,
1130
00:26:48.290 --> 00:26:50.110
the absolute wave is not
1131
00:26:50.250 --> 00:26:51.440
the most common thing.
1132
00:26:51.570 --> 00:26:53.920
We're getting to the point now with some of these modelers,
1133
00:26:54.290 --> 00:26:54.510
um,
1134
00:26:54.770 --> 00:26:55.910
we're seeing this across,
1135
00:26:56.050 --> 00:26:56.130
uh,
1136
00:26:56.250 --> 00:26:58.400
50+1 is definitely in this category.
1137
00:26:58.650 --> 00:26:58.840
Um,
1138
00:26:59.130 --> 00:26:59.200
uh,
1139
00:26:59.330 --> 00:27:00.790
Nate Silver is getting into that category.
1140
00:27:01.010 --> 00:27:01.160
And,
1141
00:27:01.250 --> 00:27:02.430
and if you think about Nate Silver,
1142
00:27:02.850 --> 00:27:03.000
you may,
1143
00:27:03.130 --> 00:27:06.590
he's like the most famous guy doing this as far as modeling goes,
1144
00:27:06.810 --> 00:27:07.830
but he's also been like,
1145
00:27:08.170 --> 00:27:08.560
uh,
1146
00:27:09.210 --> 00:27:12.160
not the guy that jumps to the most Democrat conclusion.
1147
00:27:12.790 --> 00:27:12.980
Right,
1148
00:27:13.020 --> 00:27:17.200
he was the most optimistic out of all these modelers on Trump in 2016.
1149
00:27:17.510 --> 00:27:17.750
Um,
1150
00:27:17.980 --> 00:27:18.260
he,
1151
00:27:18.420 --> 00:27:18.690
uh,
1152
00:27:18.980 --> 00:27:19.170
you know,
1153
00:27:19.340 --> 00:27:20.190
is not the type,
1154
00:27:20.460 --> 00:27:20.810
he's not,
1155
00:27:20.900 --> 00:27:22.490
there's some of these other models that are,
1156
00:27:22.700 --> 00:27:22.810
you know,
1157
00:27:22.900 --> 00:27:23.410
there's one,
1158
00:27:23.490 --> 00:27:24.920
I think it is 50 + 1 that has,
1159
00:27:25.180 --> 00:27:25.520
um,
1160
00:27:26.060 --> 00:27:28.610
Democrats at 98% chance to win the House.
1161
00:27:28.780 --> 00:27:31.450
There are people that are way more optimistic down this road.
1162
00:27:31.700 --> 00:27:33.870
I still think of it as an outlier possibility
1163
00:27:34.060 --> 00:27:35.790
when we're talking mega wave.
1164
00:27:36.570 --> 00:27:37.120
Talking
1165
00:27:37.300 --> 00:27:38.500
convincing victory,
1166
00:27:38.680 --> 00:27:42.140
2018 is very much in the realm of possibility though.
1167
00:27:42.280 --> 00:27:44.320
That seems very much in the realm of possibility.
1168
00:27:44.720 --> 00:27:44.960
So,
1169
00:27:45.000 --> 00:27:46.350
that's what's going on in the election.
1170
00:27:46.430 --> 00:27:49.520
We of course have more coming up this week and at predictableShow.com.
1171
00:27:49.640 --> 00:27:50.640
Just also wanna remind you,
1172
00:27:50.840 --> 00:27:52.070
we're getting into debate season.
1173
00:27:52.200 --> 00:27:52.790
We're gonna be doing,
1174
00:27:53.000 --> 00:27:53.910
I don't know if we'll do one tonight,
1175
00:27:54.000 --> 00:27:56.630
but we're gonna be doing some of these uh mention markets on the debates,
1176
00:27:56.680 --> 00:27:57.790
watching them along with you at,
1177
00:27:57.810 --> 00:27:58.400
at night.
1178
00:27:58.840 --> 00:27:59.910
California's got one tonight.
1179
00:28:00.310 --> 00:28:00.530
Uh,
1180
00:28:00.670 --> 00:28:01.010
this is,
1181
00:28:01.110 --> 00:28:01.420
uh,
1182
00:28:01.830 --> 00:28:03.590
Javier Becerra versus
1183
00:28:03.770 --> 00:28:04.740
Steve Hilton.
1184
00:28:04.950 --> 00:28:06.580
Be interesting to see on this one because Hilton,
1185
00:28:06.630 --> 00:28:07.020
obviously,
1186
00:28:07.130 --> 00:28:07.140
he,
1187
00:28:07.390 --> 00:28:07.740
you know,
1188
00:28:07.950 --> 00:28:09.340
his world is a communicator.
1189
00:28:09.470 --> 00:28:12.130
That's like what he's known for and why people know who he is.
1190
00:28:12.310 --> 00:28:13.180
He was a political guy,
1191
00:28:13.350 --> 00:28:13.400
uh,
1192
00:28:13.510 --> 00:28:14.100
kind of before that,
1193
00:28:14.270 --> 00:28:14.330
uh,
1194
00:28:14.470 --> 00:28:14.860
overseas,
1195
00:28:14.940 --> 00:28:15.140
but,
1196
00:28:15.390 --> 00:28:15.470
uh,
1197
00:28:15.590 --> 00:28:16.170
really a,
1198
00:28:16.270 --> 00:28:19.170
a commentator on Fox News is what he's known for maybe now
1199
00:28:19.380 --> 00:28:20.050
the most.
1200
00:28:20.350 --> 00:28:20.970
And,
1201
00:28:21.310 --> 00:28:21.430
you know,
1202
00:28:21.510 --> 00:28:23.300
he's gonna be probably pretty good in the debate.
1203
00:28:23.950 --> 00:28:25.530
He's probably gonna do pretty well
1204
00:28:25.630 --> 00:28:26.020
in the debate.
1205
00:28:26.070 --> 00:28:27.290
He did well in the primary debates,
1206
00:28:27.310 --> 00:28:28.810
and I expect him to do pretty well
1207
00:28:29.030 --> 00:28:29.780
tonight with Becerra.
1208
00:28:29.910 --> 00:28:30.770
Will that be enough
1209
00:28:31.060 --> 00:28:31.330
to,
1210
00:28:31.430 --> 00:28:31.780
uh,
1211
00:28:32.070 --> 00:28:33.540
change that race and the outcome?
1212
00:28:33.560 --> 00:28:35.540
I think that's a really tall task
1213
00:28:35.790 --> 00:28:38.130
for a Republican in this environment in California,
1214
00:28:38.350 --> 00:28:39.100
but we'll be watching.
1215
00:28:39.230 --> 00:28:42.330
We'll be watching very closely and hopefully watching along with you.
1216
00:28:42.630 --> 00:28:45.260
We have more coming up on Predictable with Stu here in just a moment.
1217
00:29:11.820 --> 00:29:12.110
Yes,
1218
00:29:12.220 --> 00:29:14.330
it's the curse of the candidate countdown.
1219
00:29:14.420 --> 00:29:16.120
We do a segment every day,
1220
00:29:16.340 --> 00:29:17.650
which is the candidate countdown.
1221
00:29:17.670 --> 00:29:18.860
We give you a race
1222
00:29:19.090 --> 00:29:23.240
that we're watching and we have a position on that we think could be profitable
1223
00:29:23.500 --> 00:29:25.320
heading into the midterms and
1224
00:29:25.540 --> 00:29:29.490
we started noticing a few of them as soon as we would do them on candidate countdown,
1225
00:29:29.510 --> 00:29:31.290
like there'd be a big report of a scandal.
1226
00:29:31.760 --> 00:29:34.260
Or the polling would inexplicably drop,
1227
00:29:34.600 --> 00:29:36.030
or they just have a terrible week,
1228
00:29:36.160 --> 00:29:37.540
the worst week of their entire,
1229
00:29:37.720 --> 00:29:38.510
the worst poll,
1230
00:29:38.600 --> 00:29:40.900
the worst incident of their entire campaign.
1231
00:29:41.160 --> 00:29:43.060
We realized it was cursed and so
1232
00:29:43.210 --> 00:29:45.820
we're trying to take advantage of that curse power that we have,
1233
00:29:45.960 --> 00:29:46.460
uh,
1234
00:29:46.800 --> 00:29:48.610
but also fake continuing to feature,
1235
00:29:48.840 --> 00:29:49.030
uh,
1236
00:29:49.200 --> 00:29:50.580
candidates each day that we do think
1237
00:29:50.760 --> 00:29:52.790
are good investments and this one is in some,
1238
00:29:52.840 --> 00:29:53.840
the value is starting to go away,
1239
00:29:53.870 --> 00:29:54.190
honestly,
1240
00:29:54.840 --> 00:29:54.990
um,
1241
00:29:55.160 --> 00:29:56.270
apparently not the only one on this one,
1242
00:29:56.320 --> 00:29:56.740
but I,
1243
00:29:56.880 --> 00:29:58.150
I find this one to be fascinating.
1244
00:29:58.680 --> 00:29:58.790
Uh,
1245
00:29:59.000 --> 00:29:59.630
candidate countdown,
1246
00:29:59.650 --> 00:30:04.900
34 days until the election and our candidate countdown candidate of the day is
1247
00:30:05.320 --> 00:30:07.060
Rebecca Bennett.
1248
00:30:07.480 --> 00:30:10.300
She's from New Jersey and she is a Democrat.
1249
00:30:10.480 --> 00:30:12.020
Hope she doesn't feel the curse
1250
00:30:12.240 --> 00:30:13.510
of the candidate countdown,
1251
00:30:13.560 --> 00:30:13.850
but
1252
00:30:14.500 --> 00:30:17.750
What I will say is this race is really not that much about Rebecca Bennett.
1253
00:30:18.530 --> 00:30:18.860
Uh,
1254
00:30:19.090 --> 00:30:19.440
you know,
1255
00:30:20.250 --> 00:30:20.550
she,
1256
00:30:20.650 --> 00:30:21.230
uh,
1257
00:30:21.690 --> 00:30:22.600
she has an interesting profile.
1258
00:30:22.650 --> 00:30:24.740
I'll tell you a little bit about her here in a second,
1259
00:30:24.850 --> 00:30:25.260
but
1260
00:30:26.440 --> 00:30:27.390
It's really about her opponent.
1261
00:30:28.390 --> 00:30:30.560
And she's going up against Thomas Kean Jr.
1262
00:30:30.990 --> 00:30:31.330
Now,
1263
00:30:31.510 --> 00:30:33.410
when you go back and you look at,
1264
00:30:33.550 --> 00:30:33.940
uh,
1265
00:30:34.550 --> 00:30:36.420
Thomas Kean Jr.s electoral history,
1266
00:30:36.510 --> 00:30:36.700
he's,
1267
00:30:36.830 --> 00:30:38.290
he's won a couple of elections in a row,
1268
00:30:38.390 --> 00:30:39.220
but they've been close.
1269
00:30:39.410 --> 00:30:41.180
And he won by like 3 and 5 points.
1270
00:30:41.270 --> 00:30:42.060
So close,
1271
00:30:42.150 --> 00:30:44.430
you think of it almost purplish sort of district here,
1272
00:30:44.550 --> 00:30:44.970
right?
1273
00:30:45.760 --> 00:30:47.850
Democrats can win that in a good environment,
1274
00:30:48.430 --> 00:30:48.540
uh,
1275
00:30:48.670 --> 00:30:49.580
and Republicans,
1276
00:30:49.710 --> 00:30:49.900
uh,
1277
00:30:50.150 --> 00:30:50.380
you know,
1278
00:30:50.470 --> 00:30:51.710
can also win when it's good,
1279
00:30:51.950 --> 00:30:52.740
a good year for them.
1280
00:30:54.380 --> 00:30:56.070
Thomas Keene is in this race,
1281
00:30:56.260 --> 00:30:56.970
and he is running.
1282
00:30:57.060 --> 00:30:59.020
He ran unopposed in the primary,
1283
00:30:59.380 --> 00:31:02.370
and he is now going up against Rebecca Bennett.
1284
00:31:03.970 --> 00:31:04.720
The issue here,
1285
00:31:04.810 --> 00:31:06.040
and if you don't remember this story,
1286
00:31:06.090 --> 00:31:07.130
it was a big one.
1287
00:31:07.950 --> 00:31:09.070
Is the fact that
1288
00:31:09.350 --> 00:31:12.500
Thomas Kean just kind of disappeared for multiple months
1289
00:31:12.500 --> 00:31:13.970
and no one knew what was going on.
1290
00:31:14.590 --> 00:31:15.540
He kind of disappeared,
1291
00:31:15.630 --> 00:31:16.520
he didn't show up to work,
1292
00:31:16.630 --> 00:31:17.620
he didn't do any votes,
1293
00:31:17.690 --> 00:31:18.730
he didn't do anything
1294
00:31:19.030 --> 00:31:20.000
for multiple
1295
00:31:20.180 --> 00:31:20.660
months,
1296
00:31:20.780 --> 00:31:22.330
over 100 days.
1297
00:31:22.710 --> 00:31:23.460
He was gone.
1298
00:31:23.630 --> 00:31:23.980
People,
1299
00:31:24.190 --> 00:31:25.670
there's some people who thought he was dead.
1300
00:31:26.030 --> 00:31:26.140
Uh,
1301
00:31:26.310 --> 00:31:27.130
thankfully he's not.
1302
00:31:27.270 --> 00:31:27.330
Uh,
1303
00:31:27.430 --> 00:31:29.320
he is very much alive and running,
1304
00:31:29.550 --> 00:31:29.620
uh,
1305
00:31:29.820 --> 00:31:31.060
for this particular seat.
1306
00:31:31.110 --> 00:31:34.540
He was dealing with what they say is a significant battle with depression.
1307
00:31:35.100 --> 00:31:35.460
And like,
1308
00:31:35.620 --> 00:31:35.890
you know,
1309
00:31:36.010 --> 00:31:36.160
look,
1310
00:31:36.260 --> 00:31:36.930
depression's real,
1311
00:31:36.980 --> 00:31:38.560
it can really affect people.
1312
00:31:38.840 --> 00:31:39.070
Um,
1313
00:31:39.260 --> 00:31:41.770
the question is if you have debilitating depression
1314
00:31:42.180 --> 00:31:45.440
for the type that makes you not show up for over 100 days and over,
1315
00:31:45.540 --> 00:31:45.730
you know,
1316
00:31:45.780 --> 00:31:47.250
100 votes or whatever it was.
1317
00:31:48.320 --> 00:31:50.270
Should you be a congressperson in the first place?
1318
00:31:50.320 --> 00:31:53.640
This is something that the people in this district are going to have to weigh.
1319
00:31:53.940 --> 00:31:57.300
He missed 140 votes during nearly four months off.
1320
00:31:57.600 --> 00:31:57.830
He,
1321
00:31:57.960 --> 00:31:58.160
um,
1322
00:31:58.360 --> 00:31:58.630
voted,
1323
00:31:58.720 --> 00:31:58.920
uh,
1324
00:31:59.360 --> 00:32:01.470
it was between March 5th and June 30th.
1325
00:32:01.720 --> 00:32:02.780
No one knew where he was.
1326
00:32:02.880 --> 00:32:04.580
He said he was hospitalized for depression.
1327
00:32:04.920 --> 00:32:06.510
The treatment took longer than expected.
1328
00:32:07.030 --> 00:32:07.450
Um,
1329
00:32:07.590 --> 00:32:09.090
he didn't really say much of anything.
1330
00:32:09.420 --> 00:32:09.620
Um,
1331
00:32:10.190 --> 00:32:12.140
to the point that the House Speaker Mike Johnson was like,
1332
00:32:12.230 --> 00:32:12.380
hey,
1333
00:32:12.470 --> 00:32:14.780
can you be a little more transparent about what's going on?
1334
00:32:14.830 --> 00:32:14.980
I mean,
1335
00:32:15.070 --> 00:32:16.450
I get that this is a personal
1336
00:32:16.620 --> 00:32:17.180
medical thing,
1337
00:32:17.270 --> 00:32:17.770
but like,
1338
00:32:18.230 --> 00:32:19.970
you're representative of the people here.
1339
00:32:20.270 --> 00:32:20.650
Um,
1340
00:32:21.160 --> 00:32:23.660
Bennett is leading in some polls.
1341
00:32:23.750 --> 00:32:23.780
Uh,
1342
00:32:23.910 --> 00:32:24.260
we'll get to,
1343
00:32:24.500 --> 00:32:24.510
uh,
1344
00:32:24.870 --> 00:32:25.030
uh,
1345
00:32:25.390 --> 00:32:26.670
breakdown of that here in a minute,
1346
00:32:26.790 --> 00:32:28.420
but there's not a lot of polling in this race.
1347
00:32:28.510 --> 00:32:29.590
This is one where
1348
00:32:29.830 --> 00:32:30.730
I'm looking at the history.
1349
00:32:31.140 --> 00:32:33.000
You've got a close electoral history.
1350
00:32:33.260 --> 00:32:35.530
You've got a Democratic leaning year,
1351
00:32:35.780 --> 00:32:37.220
at least historically we've always seen that.
1352
00:32:37.240 --> 00:32:38.400
We don't have that final result,
1353
00:32:38.420 --> 00:32:38.770
of course,
1354
00:32:38.860 --> 00:32:40.780
but that's what we're expecting and planning for.
1355
00:32:41.260 --> 00:32:42.400
And um.
1356
00:32:43.270 --> 00:32:45.750
You have this situation with him just not being around,
1357
00:32:45.870 --> 00:32:45.990
right?
1358
00:32:46.070 --> 00:32:47.330
Like I think even with him
1359
00:32:47.630 --> 00:32:48.860
not having the battle of the depression,
1360
00:32:48.990 --> 00:32:50.520
not disappearing for multiple months.
1361
00:32:51.030 --> 00:32:54.510
I'd still probably lean toward Bennett in this race just given the climate
1362
00:32:54.670 --> 00:32:55.650
of the situation.
1363
00:32:55.920 --> 00:32:56.950
Keene's job approval,
1364
00:32:57.110 --> 00:32:57.780
not good,
1365
00:32:57.990 --> 00:33:00.170
as you might expect after a situation like this.
1366
00:33:00.350 --> 00:33:01.460
37% approval,
1367
00:33:01.670 --> 00:33:03.500
60% disapproval.
1368
00:33:03.870 --> 00:33:04.260
Bennett,
1369
00:33:04.350 --> 00:33:05.980
his opponent in that same survey,
1370
00:33:06.070 --> 00:33:07.440
40% approval,
1371
00:33:07.710 --> 00:33:07.860
uh,
1372
00:33:08.110 --> 00:33:09.260
40% favorable,
1373
00:33:09.390 --> 00:33:10.930
30% unfavorable.
1374
00:33:11.190 --> 00:33:11.300
Uh,
1375
00:33:11.470 --> 00:33:11.850
another
1376
00:33:11.950 --> 00:33:12.460
poll had,
1377
00:33:12.520 --> 00:33:12.670
uh,
1378
00:33:12.950 --> 00:33:15.010
Keene underwater by 18 points.
1379
00:33:15.270 --> 00:33:15.740
Regardless,
1380
00:33:15.910 --> 00:33:17.580
none of those polls are good.
1381
00:33:18.110 --> 00:33:18.570
Um,
1382
00:33:19.110 --> 00:33:23.750
her supporters are highly motivated because of everything that's going on here.
1383
00:33:24.070 --> 00:33:24.570
Um,
1384
00:33:24.880 --> 00:33:27.330
Bennet has some a decent amount of fundraising.
1385
00:33:27.710 --> 00:33:28.330
Uh,
1386
00:33:29.230 --> 00:33:33.220
Democrats carried this district during the gubernatorial race
1387
00:33:33.420 --> 00:33:34.220
last year.
1388
00:33:34.390 --> 00:33:36.200
They had a 2025 gubernatorial race,
1389
00:33:36.430 --> 00:33:36.580
um,
1390
00:33:36.710 --> 00:33:36.930
and,
1391
00:33:37.070 --> 00:33:37.420
uh,
1392
00:33:37.630 --> 00:33:38.940
and Mikey Sherrill,
1393
00:33:39.070 --> 00:33:39.550
the Democrat,
1394
00:33:39.630 --> 00:33:40.410
won over Jack
1395
00:33:40.770 --> 00:33:41.420
Cittarelli,
1396
00:33:41.710 --> 00:33:41.770
uh,
1397
00:33:41.870 --> 00:33:43.140
which was 50 to 48.
1398
00:33:43.310 --> 00:33:43.830
So
1399
00:33:44.590 --> 00:33:44.930
Democrats,
1400
00:33:45.070 --> 00:33:47.500
I think already favored without the big absence.
1401
00:33:48.030 --> 00:33:48.580
Um
1402
00:33:49.350 --> 00:33:49.680
And there's,
1403
00:33:49.710 --> 00:33:49.820
you know,
1404
00:33:49.910 --> 00:33:50.940
been a bunch of endorsement stuff.
1405
00:33:51.030 --> 00:33:51.170
Now,
1406
00:33:51.190 --> 00:33:52.780
Bennett has won this district twice,
1407
00:33:52.950 --> 00:33:55.380
won by 2.8 and 5.4 points.
1408
00:33:56.130 --> 00:33:57.100
Um,
1409
00:33:57.490 --> 00:33:58.120
Keene,
1410
00:33:58.330 --> 00:33:58.680
uh,
1411
00:33:59.010 --> 00:34:00.970
actually outperformed Trump
1412
00:34:01.370 --> 00:34:02.600
in the 2024 election,
1413
00:34:02.730 --> 00:34:03.730
so he wasn't
1414
00:34:04.090 --> 00:34:05.840
seen this badly the whole time.
1415
00:34:05.870 --> 00:34:06.120
It's just,
1416
00:34:06.190 --> 00:34:06.280
look,
1417
00:34:06.330 --> 00:34:06.950
he's had a,
1418
00:34:07.380 --> 00:34:07.390
he,
1419
00:34:07.570 --> 00:34:09.360
he's either had a tough year or he handled it very,
1420
00:34:09.449 --> 00:34:10.179
very poorly.
1421
00:34:10.409 --> 00:34:10.520
Um,
1422
00:34:10.570 --> 00:34:11.320
he has a lot of money,
1423
00:34:11.449 --> 00:34:12.870
so that shouldn't be a problem.
1424
00:34:13.150 --> 00:34:13.540
Um,
1425
00:34:13.770 --> 00:34:15.920
and that's about it as far as points on his favor.
1426
00:34:16.010 --> 00:34:16.080
Now,
1427
00:34:16.130 --> 00:34:17.120
they did just have a debate.
1428
00:34:17.610 --> 00:34:17.760
Um,
1429
00:34:17.850 --> 00:34:18.920
we'll tell you about that in a second.
1430
00:34:19.090 --> 00:34:21.800
Keene was defending himself on his handling of his 3-month medical
1431
00:34:21.800 --> 00:34:25.580
absence and missing of 100+ votes and only debate with Democrat
1432
00:34:25.770 --> 00:34:27.150
Rebecca Bennett.
1433
00:34:27.449 --> 00:34:27.900
Um,
1434
00:34:28.090 --> 00:34:28.420
and,
1435
00:34:28.449 --> 00:34:28.710
you know,
1436
00:34:28.770 --> 00:34:29.310
they were
1437
00:34:29.480 --> 00:34:29.600
like,
1438
00:34:29.810 --> 00:34:29.830
man,
1439
00:34:29.850 --> 00:34:30.510
Bennett
1440
00:34:30.810 --> 00:34:33.710
has a little bit of connection to something we've been talking about a lot this week.
1441
00:34:33.969 --> 00:34:35.350
There was the sort of fake
1442
00:34:36.010 --> 00:34:36.989
independent thing
1443
00:34:37.120 --> 00:34:39.030
that we have discussed before.
1444
00:34:39.679 --> 00:34:39.940
Uh,
1445
00:34:40.150 --> 00:34:44.070
Bennett kind of running in that sort of fake former GOP person.
1446
00:34:44.199 --> 00:34:44.670
I swear,
1447
00:34:44.840 --> 00:34:45.110
you know,
1448
00:34:45.360 --> 00:34:45.380
yeah,
1449
00:34:45.520 --> 00:34:45.830
I don't know.
1450
00:34:45.880 --> 00:34:45.929
Yeah,
1451
00:34:46.120 --> 00:34:47.070
I used to be a Republican.
1452
00:34:47.120 --> 00:34:48.330
I can understand that side.
1453
00:34:48.600 --> 00:34:48.670
Uh,
1454
00:34:48.760 --> 00:34:50.150
there's several of them running,
1455
00:34:50.520 --> 00:34:50.750
uh,
1456
00:34:51.000 --> 00:34:54.130
midterm election 2026 meet ex-GOPs running as Dems,
1457
00:34:54.159 --> 00:34:56.030
why they might struggle to win over voters.
1458
00:34:56.120 --> 00:34:57.310
This is sort of like a diff
1459
00:34:57.600 --> 00:34:58.160
another
1460
00:34:58.310 --> 00:34:59.380
bite at the apple
1461
00:34:59.680 --> 00:35:02.460
for Democrats and when they're not doing the fake independent thing.
1462
00:35:02.740 --> 00:35:03.120
I will be,
1463
00:35:03.210 --> 00:35:03.840
that being said here,
1464
00:35:03.930 --> 00:35:06.160
they could be very competitive here with a normal Democrat,
1465
00:35:06.400 --> 00:35:10.640
let alone one that has some GOP credibility that might help a little bit in this race,
1466
00:35:10.810 --> 00:35:13.310
let alone Keen having all sorts of problems.
1467
00:35:13.690 --> 00:35:14.030
Now,
1468
00:35:14.290 --> 00:35:14.440
uh,
1469
00:35:14.570 --> 00:35:15.360
the polling showed,
1470
00:35:15.410 --> 00:35:15.880
as I mentioned,
1471
00:35:15.970 --> 00:35:16.750
that one insider,
1472
00:35:16.890 --> 00:35:17.150
uh,
1473
00:35:17.410 --> 00:35:18.350
NJ poll,
1474
00:35:18.450 --> 00:35:21.060
547 for Bennett,
1475
00:35:21.250 --> 00:35:22.570
42 for Keene.
1476
00:35:22.770 --> 00:35:26.080
Previous poll had it 47-43 from several months previous.
1477
00:35:26.930 --> 00:35:27.760
All this adds up to,
1478
00:35:27.850 --> 00:35:28.390
I think
1479
00:35:28.610 --> 00:35:30.560
Keene is probably gonna go down here in this race.
1480
00:35:30.650 --> 00:35:31.720
This is a very,
1481
00:35:31.810 --> 00:35:32.710
very vulnerable.
1482
00:35:32.980 --> 00:35:33.220
Um,
1483
00:35:33.410 --> 00:35:34.440
this is what it looks like.
1484
00:35:34.530 --> 00:35:35.240
It has risen,
1485
00:35:35.290 --> 00:35:35.800
I will tell you,
1486
00:35:35.850 --> 00:35:37.710
over the past few days since we talked about it,
1487
00:35:37.930 --> 00:35:38.000
uh,
1488
00:35:38.090 --> 00:35:38.560
and had,
1489
00:35:38.650 --> 00:35:38.800
uh,
1490
00:35:38.890 --> 00:35:39.710
a little bit of a,
1491
00:35:39.730 --> 00:35:39.920
uh,
1492
00:35:40.210 --> 00:35:40.900
a bump.
1493
00:35:41.370 --> 00:35:41.520
And,
1494
00:35:41.570 --> 00:35:41.760
you know,
1495
00:35:41.850 --> 00:35:41.960
look,
1496
00:35:42.020 --> 00:35:43.040
if you're a premium subscriber,
1497
00:35:43.090 --> 00:35:44.700
you may have heard me talk about this race,
1498
00:35:45.090 --> 00:35:45.500
um,
1499
00:35:45.730 --> 00:35:46.730
a couple of times.
1500
00:35:47.590 --> 00:35:48.080
You may,
1501
00:35:48.390 --> 00:35:50.060
you may be the reason why it's moving so much.
1502
00:35:50.190 --> 00:35:51.780
There's a lot of volume in this market though,
1503
00:35:51.830 --> 00:35:52.910
214,000,
1504
00:35:52.950 --> 00:35:54.460
or moderate volume.
1505
00:35:54.790 --> 00:35:54.820
Uh,
1506
00:35:54.870 --> 00:35:56.610
214,000 already in there.
1507
00:35:56.910 --> 00:35:56.980
Uh,
1508
00:35:57.110 --> 00:35:59.100
some of that I'm sure is premium subscribers who have seen this,
1509
00:35:59.150 --> 00:35:59.970
and it is rising,
1510
00:35:59.990 --> 00:36:01.210
and it's now at 89.
1511
00:36:01.390 --> 00:36:01.860
Again,
1512
00:36:03.550 --> 00:36:04.510
Is this a lock?
1513
00:36:05.120 --> 00:36:05.930
I wouldn't say that.
1514
00:36:06.200 --> 00:36:08.140
Everything about this race tells me
1515
00:36:08.440 --> 00:36:09.150
it's a lock,
1516
00:36:09.640 --> 00:36:09.830
um,
1517
00:36:10.000 --> 00:36:10.190
you know,
1518
00:36:10.360 --> 00:36:10.840
and again,
1519
00:36:11.190 --> 00:36:12.830
First Amendment to the predictable Constitution,
1520
00:36:12.880 --> 00:36:14.510
a sure thing always has air quotes.
1521
00:36:14.640 --> 00:36:16.380
So when I say it's a lock or a sure thing,
1522
00:36:16.680 --> 00:36:17.430
nothing's a sure thing,
1523
00:36:17.530 --> 00:36:18.160
nothing's a lock.
1524
00:36:18.280 --> 00:36:18.540
But
1525
00:36:19.080 --> 00:36:20.350
when we talk about a race like this,
1526
00:36:20.640 --> 00:36:21.720
everything adds up to
1527
00:36:21.880 --> 00:36:22.900
Thomas Keane losing.
1528
00:36:22.960 --> 00:36:24.520
He does have a big name in the state.
1529
00:36:24.580 --> 00:36:25.390
He is well known,
1530
00:36:25.520 --> 00:36:27.920
maybe there's a sympathy factor to what he's gone through,
1531
00:36:28.120 --> 00:36:28.910
that's possible.
1532
00:36:29.290 --> 00:36:29.400
Um,
1533
00:36:29.490 --> 00:36:30.760
there's not a lot of polling here.
1534
00:36:30.850 --> 00:36:32.950
There's a little bit of flying blind going on this,
1535
00:36:32.970 --> 00:36:33.630
with this one,
1536
00:36:33.850 --> 00:36:36.950
but an 11% gain over 4 or 5 weeks,
1537
00:36:37.280 --> 00:36:39.110
not too shabby for a race like this.
1538
00:36:39.330 --> 00:36:39.480
Um,
1539
00:36:39.650 --> 00:36:42.640
I did buy it a little bit earlier when I was getting more like 15 or 16%,
1540
00:36:42.920 --> 00:36:43.620
but still,
1541
00:36:44.170 --> 00:36:44.560
I think it's,
1542
00:36:44.610 --> 00:36:45.560
there's still some value here.
1543
00:36:45.650 --> 00:36:47.230
So that's our candidate of the day.
1544
00:36:47.340 --> 00:36:48.760
It is Rebecca Bennett,
1545
00:36:48.780 --> 00:36:49.950
who we just hope
1546
00:36:50.050 --> 00:36:51.110
is not cursed,
1547
00:36:51.570 --> 00:36:54.360
because we tend to curse candidates on candidate of the day.
1548
00:36:54.410 --> 00:36:55.910
We hope that doesn't happen to
1549
00:36:56.090 --> 00:36:56.400
Rebecca.
1550
00:36:56.450 --> 00:36:57.390
I'm sure she's a lovely.
1551
00:36:57.530 --> 00:36:58.390
Can we call her Becky?
1552
00:36:59.000 --> 00:37:00.770
Is it possible to just call her Becky Bennett,
1553
00:37:00.840 --> 00:37:01.710
and then she can go,
1554
00:37:01.960 --> 00:37:03.300
she's like she's on Full House.
1555
00:37:03.680 --> 00:37:04.030
Then I'll,
1556
00:37:04.320 --> 00:37:04.630
she looks,
1557
00:37:04.700 --> 00:37:05.310
she kind of looks like,
1558
00:37:05.480 --> 00:37:07.460
doesn't she kind of look like we have a picture of her?
1559
00:37:07.480 --> 00:37:07.790
I don't know,
1560
00:37:07.880 --> 00:37:09.160
we don't have the picture of her anymore,
1561
00:37:09.360 --> 00:37:09.430
uh,
1562
00:37:09.520 --> 00:37:11.870
but she kind of looks like she could have been a cast member on Full.
1563
00:37:12.000 --> 00:37:12.340
Look at that.
1564
00:37:12.360 --> 00:37:14.370
You're telling me that she couldn't have been on Full House?
1565
00:37:15.040 --> 00:37:15.920
Absolutely.
1566
00:37:16.710 --> 00:37:19.060
I think she probably would have been the comedian,
1567
00:37:19.150 --> 00:37:19.260
the,
1568
00:37:19.350 --> 00:37:21.620
the guy who used to do stand-up comedy's girlfriend.
1569
00:37:21.680 --> 00:37:22.740
Does that sound plausible,
1570
00:37:22.790 --> 00:37:23.060
Adam?
1571
00:37:23.960 --> 00:37:25.110
Most plausible scenario.
1572
00:37:27.240 --> 00:37:27.940
Is it Danny?
1573
00:37:28.250 --> 00:37:28.760
I don't know.
1574
00:37:29.820 --> 00:37:30.240
Uncle Danny,
1575
00:37:30.340 --> 00:37:30.850
Uncle Joey,
1576
00:37:30.940 --> 00:37:31.370
Joey,
1577
00:37:31.450 --> 00:37:32.280
I think it was Joey.
1578
00:37:32.380 --> 00:37:33.560
That's what I'm thinking of at least.
1579
00:37:33.990 --> 00:37:35.290
So Joey's girlfriend
1580
00:37:35.740 --> 00:37:36.320
on
1581
00:37:36.460 --> 00:37:36.880
uh
1582
00:37:38.290 --> 00:37:39.030
Full house
1583
00:37:39.170 --> 00:37:40.470
and also running for
1584
00:37:40.650 --> 00:37:41.270
the house.
1585
00:37:42.930 --> 00:37:44.990
There's a lot of full house jokes that you could make
1586
00:37:45.490 --> 00:37:45.880
with the house,
1587
00:37:45.970 --> 00:37:48.600
but I'm not gonna make any of them because we have to take a break back in a second.
1588
00:38:00.800 --> 00:38:01.550
You know,
1589
00:38:02.120 --> 00:38:03.190
prediction markets,
1590
00:38:03.280 --> 00:38:05.420
nothing but the wild west.
1591
00:38:05.960 --> 00:38:07.470
No regulation.
1592
00:38:07.910 --> 00:38:09.220
No one even looks at it.
1593
00:38:09.350 --> 00:38:11.080
Anything can happen on a prediction market.
1594
00:38:11.240 --> 00:38:11.840
This is how the,
1595
00:38:11.960 --> 00:38:13.430
the news covers prediction markets.
1596
00:38:13.590 --> 00:38:14.440
None of that's true,
1597
00:38:14.640 --> 00:38:15.220
by the way.
1598
00:38:15.600 --> 00:38:15.720
Uh,
1599
00:38:15.840 --> 00:38:18.130
it is overseen by the CFTC.
1600
00:38:18.480 --> 00:38:18.590
Uh,
1601
00:38:18.720 --> 00:38:21.340
we've talked to Michael Selig on this show before.
1602
00:38:21.960 --> 00:38:23.790
He's looking at all this stuff all the time.
1603
00:38:23.840 --> 00:38:24.560
And in fact,
1604
00:38:24.800 --> 00:38:25.000
you know,
1605
00:38:25.320 --> 00:38:26.990
everyone was so convinced that there's a wild,
1606
00:38:27.010 --> 00:38:27.470
wild west,
1607
00:38:27.520 --> 00:38:28.220
no one's overlooking,
1608
00:38:28.320 --> 00:38:29.590
no one's overseeing these markets.
1609
00:38:30.100 --> 00:38:32.550
I don't know if I ever heard that from Adam Kinzinger,
1610
00:38:32.660 --> 00:38:33.620
but I feel like I did.
1611
00:38:33.860 --> 00:38:34.560
Maybe I didn't.
1612
00:38:34.940 --> 00:38:35.320
I'm just,
1613
00:38:35.380 --> 00:38:36.920
I'm used to him preaching to us about,
1614
00:38:37.140 --> 00:38:37.330
you know,
1615
00:38:37.460 --> 00:38:38.170
this or that.
1616
00:38:38.540 --> 00:38:38.690
But,
1617
00:38:38.780 --> 00:38:38.970
uh,
1618
00:38:39.260 --> 00:38:40.090
financial regulators,
1619
00:38:40.180 --> 00:38:43.320
the CFTC are investigating Adam Kinzinger over
1620
00:38:43.600 --> 00:38:45.030
trading on Calci,
1621
00:38:45.460 --> 00:38:46.850
one of the prediction markets.
1622
00:38:46.940 --> 00:38:47.090
Now,
1623
00:38:47.180 --> 00:38:47.560
both
1624
00:38:47.700 --> 00:38:48.760
Calci and
1625
00:38:48.900 --> 00:38:49.850
Polymarket and everybody else,
1626
00:38:49.900 --> 00:38:50.170
they,
1627
00:38:50.300 --> 00:38:51.210
they look out for this stuff.
1628
00:38:51.340 --> 00:38:52.730
They want to shut it down because it's,
1629
00:38:52.940 --> 00:38:53.250
number one,
1630
00:38:53.300 --> 00:38:53.930
it's illegal,
1631
00:38:54.180 --> 00:38:54.290
uh,
1632
00:38:54.380 --> 00:38:56.290
and it puts them at odds with regulators.
1633
00:38:56.360 --> 00:38:57.240
It makes their whole business,
1634
00:38:57.420 --> 00:38:58.590
multi-billion dollar business,
1635
00:38:58.850 --> 00:38:59.590
not look good.
1636
00:38:59.820 --> 00:39:01.300
So they all wanna stop this stuff,
1637
00:39:01.540 --> 00:39:01.690
uh,
1638
00:39:01.820 --> 00:39:03.340
despite what the news will tell you.
1639
00:39:03.740 --> 00:39:03.950
But,
1640
00:39:04.260 --> 00:39:04.720
uh,
1641
00:39:05.690 --> 00:39:09.550
It's fascinating to see that the opposite is what's always said in,
1642
00:39:09.590 --> 00:39:10.370
in the media,
1643
00:39:10.550 --> 00:39:13.020
and it's fascinating to see this particular case because
1644
00:39:13.020 --> 00:39:16.070
it goes back to Joe Biden and his time.
1645
00:39:16.230 --> 00:39:16.700
If you remember,
1646
00:39:16.790 --> 00:39:17.740
Adam Kinzinger was,
1647
00:39:17.950 --> 00:39:19.290
we're just talking about people who
1648
00:39:19.510 --> 00:39:21.500
said they were Republicans or were Republicans at one
1649
00:39:21.500 --> 00:39:23.520
time and kind of like wound up just being
1650
00:39:23.790 --> 00:39:24.510
known
1651
00:39:24.780 --> 00:39:25.290
as
1652
00:39:25.550 --> 00:39:26.930
essentially Democrats
1653
00:39:27.140 --> 00:39:28.590
who would go on television and say,
1654
00:39:28.670 --> 00:39:29.020
I'm a,
1655
00:39:29.070 --> 00:39:29.220
look,
1656
00:39:29.270 --> 00:39:30.100
I'm a Republican,
1657
00:39:30.190 --> 00:39:31.380
but this Donald Trump guy,
1658
00:39:31.400 --> 00:39:32.300
blah blah blah,
1659
00:39:32.350 --> 00:39:33.460
like that was Adam Kinzinger.
1660
00:39:33.900 --> 00:39:36.860
He wound up going on the January 6th
1661
00:39:37.570 --> 00:39:38.400
investigatory
1662
00:39:38.610 --> 00:39:39.400
panel
1663
00:39:39.880 --> 00:39:40.960
because he was,
1664
00:39:41.060 --> 00:39:41.370
uh,
1665
00:39:41.540 --> 00:39:42.410
the commission
1666
00:39:42.700 --> 00:39:45.160
to go after Donald Trump after the January 6th
1667
00:39:45.370 --> 00:39:45.930
incidents.
1668
00:39:47.060 --> 00:39:47.600
Um,
1669
00:39:47.820 --> 00:39:49.080
and because of that,
1670
00:39:49.320 --> 00:39:51.050
you may remember this toward the end of the,
1671
00:39:51.180 --> 00:39:52.410
the Biden administration,
1672
00:39:52.500 --> 00:39:55.370
Biden issues preemptive pardons for January 6th
1673
00:39:55.370 --> 00:39:57.850
committee and witnesses as well as Anthony Fauci
1674
00:39:58.060 --> 00:39:58.970
and Mark Milley.
1675
00:39:59.700 --> 00:39:59.970
Um,
1676
00:40:00.580 --> 00:40:02.090
included in that was Adam Schiff,
1677
00:40:02.260 --> 00:40:02.370
uh,
1678
00:40:02.580 --> 00:40:03.660
Liz Cheney,
1679
00:40:04.100 --> 00:40:04.470
um,
1680
00:40:04.670 --> 00:40:05.960
Stephanie Murphy,
1681
00:40:06.500 --> 00:40:06.690
uh,
1682
00:40:06.860 --> 00:40:08.390
Pete Aguilar,
1683
00:40:08.740 --> 00:40:08.930
uh,
1684
00:40:09.180 --> 00:40:10.260
Zoe Lofgren,
1685
00:40:10.460 --> 00:40:10.800
uh,
1686
00:40:11.110 --> 00:40:11.890
Jamie Raskin,
1687
00:40:11.980 --> 00:40:12.580
Benny Thompson,
1688
00:40:12.620 --> 00:40:13.930
and Adam Kinzinger,
1689
00:40:14.020 --> 00:40:15.730
who was not a representative,
1690
00:40:15.780 --> 00:40:16.480
if I remember right,
1691
00:40:16.500 --> 00:40:16.920
at that
1692
00:40:17.060 --> 00:40:17.330
time,
1693
00:40:17.450 --> 00:40:18.260
maybe he was still in there,
1694
00:40:18.380 --> 00:40:18.660
but,
1695
00:40:19.020 --> 00:40:19.210
uh,
1696
00:40:19.420 --> 00:40:19.890
he eventually,
1697
00:40:19.980 --> 00:40:20.970
he's not no longer now.
1698
00:40:21.020 --> 00:40:24.280
He's just essentially an MSNBC guest as professionally,
1699
00:40:24.460 --> 00:40:24.530
uh,
1700
00:40:24.660 --> 00:40:25.270
at this point.
1701
00:40:25.500 --> 00:40:25.650
Um,
1702
00:40:25.860 --> 00:40:27.140
but he apparently,
1703
00:40:27.700 --> 00:40:30.240
He was having a little thing where he knew
1704
00:40:30.430 --> 00:40:32.420
allegedly that he was getting a pardon
1705
00:40:32.780 --> 00:40:34.980
and guess what market he was in on Calsie?
1706
00:40:35.750 --> 00:40:36.870
Will he get a pardon?
1707
00:40:37.110 --> 00:40:38.250
At least that's the report.
1708
00:40:38.650 --> 00:40:38.990
He says,
1709
00:40:39.030 --> 00:40:40.020
I was not a congressman.
1710
00:40:40.070 --> 00:40:40.390
That's right.
1711
00:40:40.410 --> 00:40:42.520
He had already stepped down or a candidate and had been
1712
00:40:42.520 --> 00:40:45.190
out of office for 2 years and had no inside information,
1713
00:40:45.270 --> 00:40:45.970
he said.
1714
00:40:46.230 --> 00:40:49.210
I just read the rules of Calsie before making wagers,
1715
00:40:49.470 --> 00:40:50.100
investments.
1716
00:40:51.810 --> 00:40:53.130
Tisk tisk tisk,
1717
00:40:53.410 --> 00:40:53.730
um,
1718
00:40:53.930 --> 00:40:54.240
uh,
1719
00:40:54.410 --> 00:40:57.430
and general provisions were that you could not work for a source agency.
1720
00:40:57.790 --> 00:41:00.530
Influence its outcome or have non-public information about it.
1721
00:41:00.620 --> 00:41:02.440
I felt confident in this because I had never
1722
00:41:02.540 --> 00:41:04.570
had a conversation with anyone about the pardons,
1723
00:41:04.700 --> 00:41:05.600
much less anyone
1724
00:41:05.940 --> 00:41:06.990
anywhere near the White House.
1725
00:41:07.700 --> 00:41:07.890
Look,
1726
00:41:08.140 --> 00:41:09.090
this is just me talking,
1727
00:41:09.220 --> 00:41:09.960
just my opinion.
1728
00:41:10.100 --> 00:41:10.650
If you believe that,
1729
00:41:10.700 --> 00:41:11.410
you'll believe anything.
1730
00:41:12.670 --> 00:41:16.380
If you believe that Adam Kinzinger never had a conversation about pardons.
1731
00:41:17.200 --> 00:41:18.860
You'll believe literally
1732
00:41:19.240 --> 00:41:19.950
anything that I say,
1733
00:41:20.300 --> 00:41:21.550
anything that anyone says,
1734
00:41:21.960 --> 00:41:23.120
because I don't buy that for a second,
1735
00:41:23.320 --> 00:41:24.310
though that is his claim.
1736
00:41:25.160 --> 00:41:27.010
He retired from Congress in 2023.
1737
00:41:27.280 --> 00:41:27.350
Uh,
1738
00:41:27.460 --> 00:41:28.590
he did get that pardon,
1739
00:41:28.680 --> 00:41:29.230
pardon,
1740
00:41:29.400 --> 00:41:31.380
and he was using the prediction markets to,
1741
00:41:31.600 --> 00:41:31.790
uh,
1742
00:41:32.000 --> 00:41:33.900
figure out whether he was going to get a pardon
1743
00:41:34.240 --> 00:41:34.660
from,
1744
00:41:34.880 --> 00:41:34.950
uh,
1745
00:41:35.120 --> 00:41:37.460
Joe Biden and profiting off of that.
1746
00:41:37.680 --> 00:41:39.610
According to screenshots provided by Kinzinger,
1747
00:41:39.680 --> 00:41:41.570
he made $823 on the,
1748
00:41:41.680 --> 00:41:42.130
on the trade.
1749
00:41:42.240 --> 00:41:42.830
So he also,
1750
00:41:42.870 --> 00:41:44.780
he said 25 trades or so at the time
1751
00:41:44.960 --> 00:41:46.180
and mostly lost money.
1752
00:41:46.880 --> 00:41:46.990
Uh,
1753
00:41:47.160 --> 00:41:47.990
that's what he says.
1754
00:41:48.240 --> 00:41:48.700
Anyway,
1755
00:41:48.960 --> 00:41:50.310
it's not the biggest scandal in the world,
1756
00:41:50.440 --> 00:41:50.660
and,
1757
00:41:50.820 --> 00:41:51.310
uh,
1758
00:41:51.520 --> 00:41:51.670
you know,
1759
00:41:51.760 --> 00:41:52.230
I don't know,
1760
00:41:52.280 --> 00:41:52.470
it's,
1761
00:41:52.560 --> 00:41:53.390
it's a borderline thing,
1762
00:41:53.450 --> 00:41:56.060
but it is funny from the people that are constantly preaching to us
1763
00:41:56.390 --> 00:41:57.450
that when they had the opportunity,
1764
00:41:57.600 --> 00:41:58.740
thought they could get away with it,
1765
00:41:59.040 --> 00:41:59.500
um,
1766
00:41:59.760 --> 00:42:00.660
they went to the wild,
1767
00:42:00.680 --> 00:42:01.820
wild west
1768
00:42:02.040 --> 00:42:04.340
and are now being taken to task by
1769
00:42:04.480 --> 00:42:05.470
the CFTC.
1770
00:42:15.400 --> 00:42:16.790
So much going on with the elections.
1771
00:42:16.920 --> 00:42:18.280
That's kind of where we are right now.
1772
00:42:18.440 --> 00:42:18.630
I mean,
1773
00:42:18.710 --> 00:42:21.440
we'll dabble here in sports and culture and everything else when,
1774
00:42:21.560 --> 00:42:23.040
when the time presents itself,
1775
00:42:23.160 --> 00:42:23.460
but
1776
00:42:23.680 --> 00:42:25.190
we're in election crunch time right now.
1777
00:42:25.240 --> 00:42:27.700
There's a massive opportunity for you to get involved in this.
1778
00:42:27.720 --> 00:42:29.060
If you'd like to be profitable
1779
00:42:29.240 --> 00:42:30.240
in prediction markets,
1780
00:42:30.420 --> 00:42:32.080
we think this is a great place for you to be.
1781
00:42:32.160 --> 00:42:34.660
We have a free membership at predictableShow.com
1782
00:42:34.920 --> 00:42:37.790
and predictable 101 is a free resource for you to go,
1783
00:42:37.810 --> 00:42:39.110
predictable101.com.
1784
00:42:39.520 --> 00:42:40.590
They've got great videos,
1785
00:42:40.720 --> 00:42:41.620
they've got great,
1786
00:42:41.680 --> 00:42:41.910
uh,
1787
00:42:42.050 --> 00:42:44.740
printed guide on how to walk you through everything from signing up
1788
00:42:44.760 --> 00:42:47.060
at the beginning all the way through making trades and everything else.
1789
00:42:47.360 --> 00:42:51.510
And then we have advanced resources as well as far as the premium subscribers,
1790
00:42:51.680 --> 00:42:51.790
uh,
1791
00:42:51.920 --> 00:42:52.660
package goes,
1792
00:42:52.810 --> 00:42:55.440
which includes a great chat with a great community
1793
00:42:55.760 --> 00:42:56.710
behind the paywall,
1794
00:42:56.920 --> 00:42:57.070
uh,
1795
00:42:57.200 --> 00:42:58.910
where you see really smart traders,
1796
00:42:59.000 --> 00:43:00.110
some of the biggest traders in the world
1797
00:43:00.110 --> 00:43:02.060
are on this platform talking with each other.
1798
00:43:02.280 --> 00:43:03.060
We also have,
1799
00:43:03.200 --> 00:43:03.390
uh,
1800
00:43:03.600 --> 00:43:04.160
Stu's picks.
1801
00:43:04.200 --> 00:43:08.070
You get to see every single prediction market position that I have in my portfolio.
1802
00:43:08.490 --> 00:43:09.690
That's updated weekly
1803
00:43:09.850 --> 00:43:12.110
so you can kind of play along or make fun of me.
1804
00:43:12.370 --> 00:43:12.480
Uh,
1805
00:43:12.650 --> 00:43:13.150
we have,
1806
00:43:13.290 --> 00:43:13.520
uh,
1807
00:43:13.650 --> 00:43:13.990
the,
1808
00:43:14.090 --> 00:43:14.200
uh,
1809
00:43:14.330 --> 00:43:15.160
prediction model.
1810
00:43:15.330 --> 00:43:15.640
We are,
1811
00:43:15.770 --> 00:43:16.200
uh,
1812
00:43:16.290 --> 00:43:16.710
we have,
1813
00:43:16.770 --> 00:43:17.230
um,
1814
00:43:17.450 --> 00:43:17.770
uh,
1815
00:43:17.930 --> 00:43:19.400
a Senate board for you to play around with.
1816
00:43:19.490 --> 00:43:21.760
I have another great feature that's I thought was gonna come out this week,
1817
00:43:21.890 --> 00:43:22.800
probably gonna be Monday,
1818
00:43:23.090 --> 00:43:23.200
uh,
1819
00:43:23.300 --> 00:43:24.690
but you're gonna like that as well.
1820
00:43:24.930 --> 00:43:25.950
So much great stuff there.
1821
00:43:26.250 --> 00:43:26.920
I encourage you,
1822
00:43:26.970 --> 00:43:27.760
if you want to do this,
1823
00:43:27.810 --> 00:43:28.630
you wanna do it right,
1824
00:43:28.810 --> 00:43:30.280
you wanna make some money on prediction markets,
1825
00:43:30.450 --> 00:43:32.450
treat it like an investment instead of throwing your money away
1826
00:43:32.450 --> 00:43:35.100
or gambling or whatever else the media says about this stuff.
1827
00:43:36.100 --> 00:43:39.820
Follow along with us and you'll learn a lot and you'll probably do very,
1828
00:43:39.900 --> 00:43:40.970
very well in prediction markets.
1829
00:43:41.060 --> 00:43:43.370
I have for over a decade and I would love for you to join me.
1830
00:43:43.560 --> 00:43:45.870
PredictableShow.com is the place to go.
1831
00:43:45.980 --> 00:43:46.480
Sign up,
1832
00:43:46.700 --> 00:43:47.820
become a premium subscriber,
1833
00:43:47.980 --> 00:43:50.560
and ride this wave with us until election day.
1834
00:43:50.700 --> 00:43:51.250
We'll see you soon.