Are Bad Actors Using Prediction Markets to MANIPULATE Reality?!

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They're using prediction markets to manipulate election outcomes.
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I hear that claim all the time.
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Is there any truth to it?
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Would it even work?
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We'll dive into that.
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We have Vivek Ramaswamy getting a lot of heat for his controversial ad campaign.
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I've noticed there's not as much
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concern about the Lindsey Graham slash Darlene Graham Nordone attack ads,
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uh,
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so we'll get into that.
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And,
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uh,
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what happens when the sports industry
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collides with the prediction market industry?
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Everyone gets angry all the time,
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and usually,
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uh,
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Sydney Sweeney takes her clothes off.
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All of that and more coming up on Predictable
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with Stu.
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Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
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Big show for you today.
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We have a lot coming up and a lot of important stuff you need to know.
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And
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there's a reason for that.
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We're very close to the election.
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Now,
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I wanna tell you,
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I would love for you to go to the YouTube page.
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We're on YouTube,
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Youtube.com/atpredictableshow.
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We'll be doing an election live stream there.
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Uh,
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we looked at some stat the other day that's something like 70% of
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the people who watch the show are not subscribed to the channel,
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so.
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You know,
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it helps us grow.
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If you subscribe to the channel,
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it helps more people see this sort of content.
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If you want us to be able to kind of provide,
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I think what we're providing already,
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which is a really good
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package of benefits and,
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and insight into the prediction market industry,
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but we can grow that.
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We're trying to grow it,
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and we are.
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It's just we'd like to do it faster.
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So if the more people that see this stuff,
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the faster we can bring you those benefits.
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So,
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go to the YouTube page,
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subscribe to the channel,
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go to the podcast,
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wherever you get your podcast,
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subscribe there.
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Uh,
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I appreciate if you do those things.
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And,
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you know,
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most of them are free.
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You can go to predictableshow.com.
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That's,
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uh,
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free for most of it,
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but there's also a subscriber layer as well.
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One of the things that's there on the subscriber level
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is something called Stu's Picks,
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which is every single prediction market position that I hold.
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There's over 350 of them last time I checked.
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Uh,
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I just update it,
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so I don't always count them.
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Uh,
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but whenever I go through a week,
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and usually once a week,
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I'll just update that list.
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We are in election season though,
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so I'm gonna try to up that,
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update that more often.
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We're gonna,
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like,
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anytime I add anything,
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I'm just gonna get that to you on this.
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So this is a new sort of feature we're adding,
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at least for the next week,
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where I'm gonna try to update these basically in real time.
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When I add a position,
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you'll be able to see where I'm going,
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what I'm thinking.
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Am I shrinking a position?
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Am I making a position larger?
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We have all that information for you.
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It is part of our premium tier.
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If you're a trader,
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it's gonna be well worth your money.
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Um,
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if you just really like the show,
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you really are interested in prediction markets,
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I also think it'll be worth your money.
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Um,
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if you're just a person who just likes
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watching overweight white person talk on television,
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it's probably still worth your money.
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So,
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any of those categories,
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it's great.
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Uh,
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predictableShow.com.
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Become a premium subscriber.
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Tons of people are,
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are signing up.
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We're really close to the election,
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so just join us.
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It's,
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it's a great place to be.
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And we do have a massive live stream happening on election night.
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Uh,
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so,
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you know,
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this is the place you wanna,
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wanna come for great
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election coverage as,
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as it ties into prediction markets.
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We will be talking about every race.
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A lot of the ones that,
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you know,
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maybe the bigger,
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you know,
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like,
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uh,
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streams or,
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uh,
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cable news channels aren't talking about because,
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you know,
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you might
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say there's not a lot of,
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uh,
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interest in some of the races,
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but if we can find interest,
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if we can find prediction market value,
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we'll be talking about them,
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and I will be live trading,
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uh,
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right on the air with you,
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so.
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You'll be able to see everything that we're doing,
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we'll be talking about it the whole time.
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Why do I bring all that up?
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Well,
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we're 7 days from the elections.
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It's beyond panic day.
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Yes,
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1 week until the midterms are here,
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and then,
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uh,
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we have to get a big live stream.
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We're gonna be covering everything that night.
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And the country's gonna change in one way or another.
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We will see how that goes.
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Early voting is already happening in 43 states.
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I think we get up to the max here in a couple of days.
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I think there's 46 total that wind up doing it,
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something like that,
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45,
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46.
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So
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there's a lot of stuff going on there and,
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you know,
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people are tense.
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People
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are on the edge a little bit.
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I've noticed this.
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I've noticed it on social media.
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I've noticed it in real life.
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People are,
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you know,
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freaked out.
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They want their side to win.
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You have the kind of dueling different things from
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each side where Republicans are generally speaking like,
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holy crap,
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is this gonna get really ugly for us?
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Like,
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are we gonna lose the Senate?
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Or is it gonna be,
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what about Supreme Court justices?
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If that happens,
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like,
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I'm,
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you know,
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we're not gonna be getting any bills passed.
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There's sort of that panic of like,
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wait a minute,
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the media says this stuff all the time,
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but is it real this time?
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And then on the other side,
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the Democrats have the
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holy crap,
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we,
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we were saying and being really cocky about how we were gonna win all this time,
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now that we're a week away,
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are we gonna somehow blow this again?
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They are panicked for a totally different reason.
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So everyone's freaked out,
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and that makes it,
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uh,
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wonderful.
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I,
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I think all of our interactions this time of year
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with other human beings are really positive because nobody's insane.
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Nobody's stressed out,
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nobody's nerves are frazzled to the degree
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that we've never seen before.
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Uh,
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actually,
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it's kind of how it is all the time,
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I feel like right now.
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And I noticed this on social media,
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and I noticed it because I,
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I post
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prediction market,
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uh,
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content.
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It's what I do for a living,
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you know,
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I,
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I talk about prediction markets,
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I talk about politics,
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and when I do that,
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people get angry.
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There's some weird anger going on against,
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uh,
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prediction markets,
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which I don't
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fully understand.
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Um,
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you know,
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there's always anger against something new,
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uh,
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and prediction markets are new.
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So I think that's part of it.
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But also like there's just this tie,
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this belief that these things are really bad for society.
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I went through all of this,
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uh,
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uh,
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you know,
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a good chunk of this argument last night.
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On the program,
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which I just don't see it that way at all.
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In fact,
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especially if you're someone who's,
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you know,
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gone through
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the battles,
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the trials and tribulations of having like only 3 channels
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and trying to get your message,
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uh,
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to be treated fairly or your ideas to be treated fairly,
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we saw that grand expansion
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of,
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uh,
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of media,
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and I think it was a good thing to push back against
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that sort of centralized control of
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what was acceptable opinion,
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right?
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That has expanded quite a bit.
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Um,
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you know,
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with that,
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of course,
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has,
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there's some bumps in that road as well,
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um,
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where you have,
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uh,
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some partisan interests taking over and everything else,
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and,
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and prediction markets do a great job of cutting through all
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that because people gotta put their money where their mouth is.
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People don't tend to take BS positions when they're putting currency next to them.
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That's just the reality of the situation,
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and it's why prediction markets
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have done so well
287
00:06:22.350 --> 00:06:22.890
predicting,
288
00:06:23.029 --> 00:06:23.220
uh,
289
00:06:23.230 --> 00:06:23.709
outcomes.
290
00:06:23.750 --> 00:06:24.089
Now,
291
00:06:26.079 --> 00:06:27.480
That doesn't mean everybody's convinced.
292
00:06:28.820 --> 00:06:29.489
If you're here,
293
00:06:29.549 --> 00:06:31.100
you're probably early on this bandwagon.
294
00:06:31.149 --> 00:06:34.029
You're probably understanding this a lot more than the people around you,
295
00:06:34.109 --> 00:06:34.790
your friends,
296
00:06:34.959 --> 00:06:35.609
your frenemies,
297
00:06:35.670 --> 00:06:36.410
your enemies.
298
00:06:36.760 --> 00:06:40.250
And so I wanted to go through a couple of these arguments that I see all the time.
299
00:06:40.429 --> 00:06:41.149
One in particular,
300
00:06:41.230 --> 00:06:42.589
which is really important about,
301
00:06:42.920 --> 00:06:43.390
uh,
302
00:06:43.410 --> 00:06:44.369
elections in particular.
303
00:06:44.700 --> 00:06:44.950
Uh,
304
00:06:45.149 --> 00:06:45.429
first of all,
305
00:06:45.510 --> 00:06:46.190
there was this claim,
306
00:06:46.269 --> 00:06:46.380
uh,
307
00:06:46.470 --> 00:06:46.750
prediction.
308
00:06:46.799 --> 00:06:46.869
I,
309
00:06:46.950 --> 00:06:48.230
I took the names out of these cause I don't,
310
00:06:48.299 --> 00:06:48.390
I,
311
00:06:48.570 --> 00:06:49.589
I don't wanna get some random,
312
00:06:49.670 --> 00:06:49.899
uh,
313
00:06:49.910 --> 00:06:51.829
person on social media flamed for this stuff.
314
00:06:51.910 --> 00:06:53.059
I'm just giving you their points.
315
00:06:53.260 --> 00:06:54.619
Prediction markets are useless.
316
00:06:54.769 --> 00:06:55.649
They don't predict anything.
317
00:06:55.910 --> 00:06:57.750
They are one step below odds at the track.
318
00:06:57.989 --> 00:06:58.290
Now.
319
00:06:59.440 --> 00:06:59.920
First of all,
320
00:07:00.070 --> 00:07:00.859
odds at the track,
321
00:07:01.040 --> 00:07:01.390
uh,
322
00:07:01.519 --> 00:07:01.750
uh,
323
00:07:01.839 --> 00:07:02.109
you know,
324
00:07:02.239 --> 00:07:02.959
there's a reason why,
325
00:07:03.040 --> 00:07:03.279
you know,
326
00:07:03.359 --> 00:07:04.100
the
327
00:07:04.709 --> 00:07:05.859
institutions that set odds
328
00:07:06.040 --> 00:07:07.019
tend to make money
329
00:07:07.359 --> 00:07:09.549
because they set them in very accurate ways,
330
00:07:09.559 --> 00:07:09.839
actually.
331
00:07:09.959 --> 00:07:10.880
They're difficult to beat.
332
00:07:10.959 --> 00:07:13.119
That's why people lose at sports gambling a lot,
333
00:07:13.359 --> 00:07:13.480
uh,
334
00:07:13.679 --> 00:07:16.700
because the odds set by the house are usually very difficult to beat,
335
00:07:16.720 --> 00:07:17.940
and they have nice spreads and
336
00:07:18.320 --> 00:07:18.720
whatever.
337
00:07:18.959 --> 00:07:20.000
So I don't know that odds are,
338
00:07:20.149 --> 00:07:20.350
uh,
339
00:07:20.359 --> 00:07:23.440
by the track are necessarily the bad thing to be compared to.
340
00:07:23.869 --> 00:07:25.040
But when you say they're useless,
341
00:07:25.119 --> 00:07:25.450
like,
342
00:07:25.480 --> 00:07:25.640
we,
343
00:07:25.679 --> 00:07:27.190
we went through a lot of this data yesterday,
344
00:07:27.279 --> 00:07:29.079
there's been a ton of studies that show,
345
00:07:29.440 --> 00:07:29.790
uh,
346
00:07:29.799 --> 00:07:30.570
exactly what
347
00:07:30.760 --> 00:07:32.339
these prediction markets do
348
00:07:32.640 --> 00:07:33.320
and do well,
349
00:07:33.440 --> 00:07:34.529
which is they are
350
00:07:34.799 --> 00:07:35.440
basically,
351
00:07:35.519 --> 00:07:35.760
I mean,
352
00:07:36.040 --> 00:07:37.820
almost near perfect calibration
353
00:07:38.239 --> 00:07:38.980
to reality.
354
00:07:39.239 --> 00:07:42.320
If a prediction market says there's a 70% chance of something happening.
355
00:07:42.829 --> 00:07:43.320
Um,
356
00:07:43.640 --> 00:07:44.079
that means,
357
00:07:44.160 --> 00:07:44.920
just so we're aware,
358
00:07:44.959 --> 00:07:48.140
cause I posted a poll on this and I got kind of shocking results.
359
00:07:48.440 --> 00:07:48.890
Um,
360
00:07:49.279 --> 00:07:50.000
so we're clear.
361
00:07:50.239 --> 00:07:50.799
If something,
362
00:07:50.920 --> 00:07:53.260
if a prediction market says a 70% favorite,
363
00:07:53.480 --> 00:07:55.119
that means that candidate
364
00:07:55.519 --> 00:07:56.140
should lose,
365
00:07:56.160 --> 00:07:57.679
if he ran that race a zillion times,
366
00:07:57.760 --> 00:07:59.500
should lose 30% of the time.
367
00:07:59.769 --> 00:08:01.619
Anything marked as a 70% favorite
368
00:08:01.760 --> 00:08:03.399
should lose about 30% of the time.
369
00:08:03.619 --> 00:08:05.910
Anything marked as a 30% underdog
370
00:08:06.160 --> 00:08:08.040
should win about 30% of the time.
371
00:08:08.200 --> 00:08:09.380
That's how these odds work.
372
00:08:09.799 --> 00:08:10.140
So,
373
00:08:10.720 --> 00:08:11.920
when you understand that.
374
00:08:12.390 --> 00:08:12.640
You,
375
00:08:12.720 --> 00:08:14.190
you could understand what calibration means,
376
00:08:14.239 --> 00:08:14.600
which is,
377
00:08:14.640 --> 00:08:17.109
if someone says there's only a 10% chance of that happening,
378
00:08:17.359 --> 00:08:19.179
that doesn't mean it never happens.
379
00:08:19.890 --> 00:08:20.839
That doesn't mean
380
00:08:20.940 --> 00:08:22.579
it's the craziest thing in the world.
381
00:08:22.779 --> 00:08:23.420
Like we all,
382
00:08:23.540 --> 00:08:23.649
you know,
383
00:08:23.660 --> 00:08:26.299
mocked the Francesca Hong primary because it was a,
384
00:08:26.480 --> 00:08:26.619
you know,
385
00:08:26.700 --> 00:08:27.440
prediction markets,
386
00:08:27.679 --> 00:08:27.940
um,
387
00:08:28.100 --> 00:08:28.380
you know,
388
00:08:28.500 --> 00:08:28.579
I,
389
00:08:28.660 --> 00:08:28.769
I,
390
00:08:28.859 --> 00:08:29.380
I was on them.
391
00:08:29.459 --> 00:08:31.100
I lost some money on Francesca Hong,
392
00:08:31.209 --> 00:08:32.640
she was at 95%.
393
00:08:32.859 --> 00:08:33.799
I started buying her
394
00:08:34.390 --> 00:08:37.260
a little bit when she dropped to 80% cause I still thought she was gonna win.
395
00:08:37.380 --> 00:08:38.320
She almost did,
396
00:08:38.820 --> 00:08:39.500
but she lost.
397
00:08:40.558 --> 00:08:41.018
And
398
00:08:41.508 --> 00:08:41.729
everyone was like,
399
00:08:41.789 --> 00:08:42.039
oh gosh,
400
00:08:42.119 --> 00:08:43.508
what a failure for prediction markets.
401
00:08:43.638 --> 00:08:44.039
No,
402
00:08:44.309 --> 00:08:47.739
a 95% favorite should lose 5% of the time.
403
00:08:48.039 --> 00:08:48.379
If
404
00:08:48.638 --> 00:08:51.218
a 95% favorite does not lose ever,
405
00:08:51.838 --> 00:08:52.999
then the markets are broken.
406
00:08:55.750 --> 00:08:59.419
This has been shown over millions of contracts.
407
00:08:59.789 --> 00:09:02.030
I know you saw one graph on Twitter.
408
00:09:02.109 --> 00:09:02.809
I get it.
409
00:09:03.109 --> 00:09:05.489
And I get how that impacted you in some way.
410
00:09:06.030 --> 00:09:08.880
But the truth of the matter is when you look at this over a long period of time,
411
00:09:08.979 --> 00:09:10.229
over millions of contracts,
412
00:09:10.270 --> 00:09:10.570
over,
413
00:09:10.580 --> 00:09:11.929
over dozens of years.
414
00:09:12.640 --> 00:09:12.770
Uh,
415
00:09:12.849 --> 00:09:13.049
you know,
416
00:09:13.390 --> 00:09:15.650
when you break it down by all the different exchanges,
417
00:09:15.729 --> 00:09:16.630
what you find.
418
00:09:17.289 --> 00:09:20.890
Is that these prediction markets do a better job at this
419
00:09:20.890 --> 00:09:23.090
type of thing than any other tool that we have.
420
00:09:23.979 --> 00:09:24.739
Now that mark,
421
00:09:24.859 --> 00:09:26.969
that argument we kind of dealt with yesterday in more detail,
422
00:09:26.979 --> 00:09:28.090
if you wanna go back and watch that,
423
00:09:28.270 --> 00:09:28.690
you could.
424
00:09:28.900 --> 00:09:29.729
We also have this one,
425
00:09:29.739 --> 00:09:30.679
and I get this one
426
00:09:31.099 --> 00:09:33.369
pretty much anytime I post anything about prediction markets.
427
00:09:33.539 --> 00:09:33.780
It's a,
428
00:09:33.859 --> 00:09:34.530
this is a version of,
429
00:09:34.580 --> 00:09:35.239
this is a quote,
430
00:09:35.729 --> 00:09:35.969
uh,
431
00:09:36.059 --> 00:09:36.250
but,
432
00:09:36.299 --> 00:09:36.500
uh,
433
00:09:36.580 --> 00:09:36.820
you know,
434
00:09:37.000 --> 00:09:37.010
you,
435
00:09:37.059 --> 00:09:37.719
you get the sense.
436
00:09:37.979 --> 00:09:39.719
The market is garbage.
437
00:09:41.650 --> 00:09:42.369
First of all,
438
00:09:42.650 --> 00:09:44.200
I want a t-shirt that says,
439
00:09:44.210 --> 00:09:45.559
the markets is garbage.
440
00:09:45.760 --> 00:09:48.270
We were just building our merch store the other day.
441
00:09:48.570 --> 00:09:49.789
This might need to be one of them,
442
00:09:49.890 --> 00:09:51.030
in just this font,
443
00:09:51.409 --> 00:09:53.750
the markets is garbage with no period.
444
00:09:54.250 --> 00:09:55.130
I want that shirt.
445
00:09:55.210 --> 00:09:56.570
I don't know if anyone else would ever buy it,
446
00:09:56.640 --> 00:09:57.690
but I would wear it around.
447
00:09:57.849 --> 00:09:58.630
The markets
448
00:09:58.840 --> 00:09:59.840
is garbage.
449
00:10:00.210 --> 00:10:04.229
He says $5000 can change the markets by up to 30%.
450
00:10:06.179 --> 00:10:08.419
It's the market manipulation argument.
451
00:10:08.619 --> 00:10:08.929
And the,
452
00:10:08.979 --> 00:10:09.210
the,
453
00:10:09.299 --> 00:10:09.500
the,
454
00:10:09.619 --> 00:10:10.619
the thought of it goes like this,
455
00:10:10.700 --> 00:10:12.179
and then there's some sense to,
456
00:10:12.299 --> 00:10:13.299
you could see this happening.
457
00:10:13.539 --> 00:10:13.869
Obviously,
458
00:10:13.900 --> 00:10:16.750
prediction markets are being talked about more and more in our society.
459
00:10:16.849 --> 00:10:18.330
They're being in their own news channels and everything else.
460
00:10:18.380 --> 00:10:19.400
People talk about them.
461
00:10:19.859 --> 00:10:21.119
And if you could spend
462
00:10:21.539 --> 00:10:22.719
$5000
463
00:10:22.890 --> 00:10:24.559
to move a market by 30 points,
464
00:10:24.780 --> 00:10:26.580
it's possible one of those news networks would say,
465
00:10:26.659 --> 00:10:26.979
wait a minute,
466
00:10:27.090 --> 00:10:27.210
uh,
467
00:10:27.260 --> 00:10:27.419
gosh,
468
00:10:27.500 --> 00:10:27.650
this,
469
00:10:27.700 --> 00:10:29.000
this candidate is spiking,
470
00:10:29.419 --> 00:10:29.799
right?
471
00:10:30.250 --> 00:10:30.530
Um,
472
00:10:30.619 --> 00:10:31.880
and if that happens,
473
00:10:32.099 --> 00:10:32.929
maybe that will,
474
00:10:32.940 --> 00:10:33.349
uh,
475
00:10:33.380 --> 00:10:35.940
mean that people will start supporting that candidate.
476
00:10:36.909 --> 00:10:39.340
Maybe they will think that candidate has a better chance to win.
477
00:10:39.390 --> 00:10:40.390
They'll get more excited about it.
478
00:10:40.469 --> 00:10:43.270
Maybe they'll think their candidate has a bigger chance to lose,
479
00:10:43.549 --> 00:10:45.530
and they'll be so depressed by that information
480
00:10:45.669 --> 00:10:47.489
that they will not go to the polls at all,
481
00:10:47.679 --> 00:10:48.799
and it manufactures,
482
00:10:48.809 --> 00:10:49.020
uh,
483
00:10:49.030 --> 00:10:49.270
a,
484
00:10:49.280 --> 00:10:49.559
uh,
485
00:10:49.590 --> 00:10:51.909
a major problem in our electoral system.
486
00:10:51.989 --> 00:10:52.890
That's kind of
487
00:10:53.270 --> 00:10:54.609
the thought process behind it.
488
00:10:54.830 --> 00:10:56.539
I wanna kind of go through this step by step,
489
00:10:56.950 --> 00:10:57.500
because I don't,
490
00:10:57.590 --> 00:10:58.890
I don't think people
491
00:10:59.469 --> 00:11:01.130
fully understand and grasp
492
00:11:02.469 --> 00:11:04.330
how difficult that would be to do.
493
00:11:05.440 --> 00:11:05.789
How,
494
00:11:06.119 --> 00:11:06.750
uh,
495
00:11:07.090 --> 00:11:08.700
silly it would be to attempt,
496
00:11:09.289 --> 00:11:10.830
how expensive it would be
497
00:11:10.969 --> 00:11:11.750
to maintain.
498
00:11:12.500 --> 00:11:13.750
And frankly,
499
00:11:13.869 --> 00:11:17.530
I don't know that it would lead to any results whatsoever at the end of the day anyway.
500
00:11:17.950 --> 00:11:18.140
So,
501
00:11:18.150 --> 00:11:19.169
let me go through this a little bit.
502
00:11:20.590 --> 00:11:21.359
The bottom line is,
503
00:11:21.669 --> 00:11:24.179
anybody can go into one of these markets if you're not insider trading,
504
00:11:24.229 --> 00:11:25.590
and you can legally buy shares.
505
00:11:25.679 --> 00:11:27.400
If you are just a supporter of a candidate,
506
00:11:27.479 --> 00:11:29.659
let's say you support uh James Tallarico,
507
00:11:29.760 --> 00:11:30.349
and you're like,
508
00:11:30.400 --> 00:11:32.859
I just want James Tallarico to have a bigger number.
509
00:11:33.179 --> 00:11:33.299
Uh,
510
00:11:33.419 --> 00:11:35.260
than he has in these prediction markets because,
511
00:11:35.580 --> 00:11:36.020
frankly,
512
00:11:36.140 --> 00:11:37.260
I don't even care if I win my,
513
00:11:37.380 --> 00:11:37.580
my,
514
00:11:37.659 --> 00:11:37.909
uh,
515
00:11:38.059 --> 00:11:38.820
my position or not.
516
00:11:38.900 --> 00:11:39.679
I just want
517
00:11:39.940 --> 00:11:40.510
to show,
518
00:11:40.619 --> 00:11:41.940
I wanna manipulate these markets.
519
00:11:42.039 --> 00:11:43.179
I wanna change these markets.
520
00:11:43.219 --> 00:11:43.619
I wanna say,
521
00:11:43.700 --> 00:11:44.090
look,
522
00:11:44.619 --> 00:11:45.260
these markets,
523
00:11:45.340 --> 00:11:45.489
uh,
524
00:11:45.500 --> 00:11:48.200
are gonna show Tallarico now as an 80% favorite,
525
00:11:48.440 --> 00:11:49.409
and everyone's gonna think,
526
00:11:49.500 --> 00:11:49.650
uh,
527
00:11:49.739 --> 00:11:50.200
he's on,
528
00:11:50.380 --> 00:11:50.570
on,
529
00:11:50.619 --> 00:11:50.859
on,
530
00:11:50.960 --> 00:11:51.219
on,
531
00:11:51.260 --> 00:11:51.849
uh,
532
00:11:51.859 --> 00:11:52.140
winning,
533
00:11:52.219 --> 00:11:55.099
and they're gonna get on the bandwagon and Tallarico is gonna actually win in Texas.
534
00:11:55.419 --> 00:11:55.619
OK,
535
00:11:55.780 --> 00:11:55.969
so,
536
00:11:56.140 --> 00:11:56.739
there's your theory.
537
00:11:59.229 --> 00:12:00.630
Moving a candidate from,
538
00:12:00.669 --> 00:12:03.229
I think we're Talarico is in the mid-60s to 80%,
539
00:12:03.309 --> 00:12:03.849
let's say,
540
00:12:04.030 --> 00:12:04.690
um,
541
00:12:05.070 --> 00:12:05.869
would be very,
542
00:12:05.950 --> 00:12:07.320
very expensive to do.
543
00:12:07.669 --> 00:12:08.010
Um,
544
00:12:08.059 --> 00:12:08.789
and in fact,
545
00:12:08.830 --> 00:12:10.409
we don't have to guess at these numbers,
546
00:12:10.469 --> 00:12:10.950
um.
547
00:12:11.919 --> 00:12:13.280
We can look at the markets.
548
00:12:13.359 --> 00:12:14.919
Do we have the Tallarico market ready?
549
00:12:15.200 --> 00:12:17.549
Here's the James Tallarico versus Ken Paxton market.
550
00:12:17.599 --> 00:12:18.020
You see
551
00:12:18.479 --> 00:12:18.799
what,
552
00:12:18.880 --> 00:12:19.030
uh,
553
00:12:19.039 --> 00:12:19.270
uh,
554
00:12:19.280 --> 00:12:19.820
what the,
555
00:12:19.919 --> 00:12:21.460
the history of this race is.
556
00:12:21.679 --> 00:12:21.789
Uh,
557
00:12:21.880 --> 00:12:23.190
Paxton heavy favorite,
558
00:12:23.400 --> 00:12:25.590
75% all the way up to the beginning of this year,
559
00:12:25.880 --> 00:12:26.479
started falling.
560
00:12:26.520 --> 00:12:27.479
It became a close race.
561
00:12:27.659 --> 00:12:28.719
In 2026,
562
00:12:28.979 --> 00:12:29.070
uh,
563
00:12:29.190 --> 00:12:31.090
beat him a 50/50 race in,
564
00:12:31.109 --> 00:12:32.130
let's say August
565
00:12:32.419 --> 00:12:34.070
and then has moved towards Tallarico.
566
00:12:34.140 --> 00:12:36.059
Now he's at 66% and I can't remember,
567
00:12:36.109 --> 00:12:37.750
I think this was the race we were talking about
568
00:12:37.950 --> 00:12:39.669
when we were talking about market manipulation because,
569
00:12:39.719 --> 00:12:39.830
you know,
570
00:12:39.950 --> 00:12:41.890
Tallarico's popped and honestly his polls
571
00:12:42.270 --> 00:12:43.369
aren't that great.
572
00:12:44.320 --> 00:12:44.440
Uh,
573
00:12:44.559 --> 00:12:45.400
Tarico's polls are,
574
00:12:45.460 --> 00:12:47.239
he's up by a couple of points over Paxson.
575
00:12:47.320 --> 00:12:47.599
Paxson,
576
00:12:47.679 --> 00:12:47.960
I would say,
577
00:12:48.000 --> 00:12:49.780
has narrowed the gap slightly recently,
578
00:12:50.030 --> 00:12:50.359
but you see,
579
00:12:50.479 --> 00:12:51.880
Tallarico percentage is up.
580
00:12:51.969 --> 00:12:52.299
So,
581
00:12:52.559 --> 00:12:52.760
why,
582
00:12:52.840 --> 00:12:53.280
what does that mean?
583
00:12:53.400 --> 00:12:53.479
Well,
584
00:12:53.549 --> 00:12:54.780
if you scroll down a little bit here,
585
00:12:55.239 --> 00:12:55.510
um,
586
00:12:55.640 --> 00:12:56.780
you can see exactly
587
00:12:56.919 --> 00:13:00.359
how much it would take to move these markets from mid-60s to 80s.
588
00:13:00.429 --> 00:13:01.960
If you click on James Tallarico's name there,
589
00:13:02.039 --> 00:13:03.039
we will get the order book.
590
00:13:03.200 --> 00:13:04.479
Order book is a really key thing.
591
00:13:04.679 --> 00:13:06.119
One of our predictable 101
592
00:13:06.270 --> 00:13:07.119
videos is handling that.
593
00:13:07.200 --> 00:13:08.140
That's coming out soon.
594
00:13:08.349 --> 00:13:08.549
Um,
595
00:13:08.719 --> 00:13:09.840
but you should always buy in the,
596
00:13:09.919 --> 00:13:10.200
in the,
597
00:13:10.280 --> 00:13:10.429
uh,
598
00:13:10.520 --> 00:13:10.669
in,
599
00:13:10.750 --> 00:13:11.039
in these,
600
00:13:11.119 --> 00:13:11.500
uh.
601
00:13:11.989 --> 00:13:12.119
Uh,
602
00:13:12.190 --> 00:13:13.000
when you're buying in these markets,
603
00:13:13.059 --> 00:13:13.719
use the order book.
604
00:13:13.919 --> 00:13:14.630
If you don't know how to use it,
605
00:13:14.679 --> 00:13:16.200
you can look at predictable one on one very soon,
606
00:13:16.239 --> 00:13:16.349
and,
607
00:13:16.440 --> 00:13:17.349
and we've got a whole video on it.
608
00:13:17.400 --> 00:13:17.679
OK.
609
00:13:18.590 --> 00:13:18.969
So
610
00:13:19.809 --> 00:13:23.799
What these things are showing are the available shares at different prices.
611
00:13:23.929 --> 00:13:24.520
So right now,
612
00:13:24.609 --> 00:13:25.229
you could buy
613
00:13:25.510 --> 00:13:27.950
455,000 shares
614
00:13:28.130 --> 00:13:30.469
and change at 66 cents
615
00:13:30.770 --> 00:13:31.929
uh for James Tallarico.
616
00:13:32.380 --> 00:13:33.070
If you bought all the,
617
00:13:33.340 --> 00:13:33.780
the,
618
00:13:33.820 --> 00:13:35.780
the cost of that would be $300,000
619
00:13:35.900 --> 00:13:36.109
OK?
620
00:13:36.219 --> 00:13:36.460
So,
621
00:13:36.700 --> 00:13:38.659
for $300,000 you could move this market.
622
00:13:38.739 --> 00:13:39.210
You could,
623
00:13:39.340 --> 00:13:40.260
you could do it right now,
624
00:13:40.450 --> 00:13:41.400
in the comfort of your own home.
625
00:13:41.659 --> 00:13:43.929
You could move it from $6600 to 67 cents,
626
00:13:44.159 --> 00:13:44.530
OK?
627
00:13:44.780 --> 00:13:46.900
You could wipe out every share at 66 cents,
628
00:13:47.059 --> 00:13:51.299
you go to $67 and then that number that says 66 now would change to 67.
629
00:13:52.109 --> 00:13:52.229
Now,
630
00:13:52.270 --> 00:13:55.349
if you wanted to move it all the way to 80 cents,
631
00:13:56.469 --> 00:13:57.299
To pick a number,
632
00:13:57.400 --> 00:13:59.159
let's scroll up to 80 cents for a second here.
633
00:13:59.210 --> 00:14:01.700
You'd have to buy the 700,000 shares at
634
00:14:01.880 --> 00:14:03.859
uh 67 cents and all these,
635
00:14:03.880 --> 00:14:04.780
all the way up.
636
00:14:05.200 --> 00:14:06.419
To get to 80 cents,
637
00:14:06.880 --> 00:14:09.859
that would run you $1.3 million.
638
00:14:10.750 --> 00:14:11.190
Now,
639
00:14:11.590 --> 00:14:12.020
you might say,
640
00:14:12.080 --> 00:14:12.190
well,
641
00:14:12.270 --> 00:14:14.109
$1.3 million is a lot of money for me,
642
00:14:14.349 --> 00:14:14.510
sure,
643
00:14:14.630 --> 00:14:16.070
but there's billionaires out there,
644
00:14:16.140 --> 00:14:18.789
you got the Elon Musks and the George Soroses,
645
00:14:18.849 --> 00:14:21.200
and you got all these people that $1.3 million means nothing to them.
646
00:14:21.270 --> 00:14:22.090
They could do this.
647
00:14:22.549 --> 00:14:23.710
And the truth is,
648
00:14:24.580 --> 00:14:25.619
In theory,
649
00:14:26.530 --> 00:14:27.320
You're right.
650
00:14:27.859 --> 00:14:31.940
Someone could spend $1.3 million and buy this up to 80 cents.
651
00:14:32.049 --> 00:14:34.099
So that number that you see that says 66 cents
652
00:14:34.099 --> 00:14:36.099
right there would all of a sudden show 80 cents.
653
00:14:36.869 --> 00:14:37.880
And then people would be saying,
654
00:14:37.960 --> 00:14:38.520
oh gosh,
655
00:14:38.599 --> 00:14:39.750
James Tallaricos spiking,
656
00:14:39.799 --> 00:14:40.380
right?
657
00:14:40.840 --> 00:14:41.010
Yeah,
658
00:14:41.840 --> 00:14:42.520
not so fast.
659
00:14:43.630 --> 00:14:44.630
The problem here is,
660
00:14:44.679 --> 00:14:45.840
if you could do this,
661
00:14:45.880 --> 00:14:48.219
it would briefly push it up to 80 cents.
662
00:14:48.479 --> 00:14:50.390
But the market has an idea,
663
00:14:50.719 --> 00:14:51.150
right?
664
00:14:51.400 --> 00:14:52.070
The market
665
00:14:52.440 --> 00:14:53.979
has an idea as to
666
00:14:54.520 --> 00:14:56.000
what these prices should be.
667
00:14:56.200 --> 00:14:57.880
They think right now it should be 66 cents.
668
00:14:57.960 --> 00:14:59.820
That's what the market has decided right now.
669
00:15:00.320 --> 00:15:01.419
So what you would have
670
00:15:01.559 --> 00:15:03.099
are people who would come into the market,
671
00:15:03.320 --> 00:15:04.200
and all of a sudden say,
672
00:15:04.299 --> 00:15:04.440
well,
673
00:15:04.570 --> 00:15:05.119
wait a minute.
674
00:15:06.239 --> 00:15:08.039
That Tallarico price is too high.
675
00:15:09.039 --> 00:15:09.380
Now,
676
00:15:09.919 --> 00:15:11.479
Ken Paxton is underpriced.
677
00:15:11.559 --> 00:15:13.479
He should be at 35 cents.
678
00:15:13.869 --> 00:15:15.719
I'm gonna start buying at 20 cents.
679
00:15:16.559 --> 00:15:18.919
And people would start putting pressure on the market
680
00:15:18.919 --> 00:15:21.340
to bring that number from 80 for Tallarico,
681
00:15:21.679 --> 00:15:23.080
back to 66,
682
00:15:23.479 --> 00:15:23.789
right?
683
00:15:24.080 --> 00:15:24.440
They would say,
684
00:15:24.520 --> 00:15:24.599
well,
685
00:15:24.669 --> 00:15:25.280
wait a minute,
686
00:15:25.599 --> 00:15:26.510
there's all these people out there,
687
00:15:26.530 --> 00:15:28.340
and here's how I know there are these people out there.
688
00:15:28.599 --> 00:15:30.179
I am one of them.
689
00:15:30.450 --> 00:15:32.440
If I saw that go up to 80 cents right now,
690
00:15:32.520 --> 00:15:34.719
I would load up on Ken Paxton shares.
691
00:15:35.880 --> 00:15:36.340
Because,
692
00:15:36.799 --> 00:15:37.000
and I,
693
00:15:37.070 --> 00:15:37.320
and look,
694
00:15:37.400 --> 00:15:37.989
I don't have,
695
00:15:38.200 --> 00:15:38.400
you know,
696
00:15:38.570 --> 00:15:38.710
the,
697
00:15:38.919 --> 00:15:39.270
the,
698
00:15:39.280 --> 00:15:39.549
uh,
699
00:15:39.559 --> 00:15:40.109
financial,
700
00:15:40.159 --> 00:15:41.270
financial picture to,
701
00:15:41.280 --> 00:15:41.549
uh,
702
00:15:41.559 --> 00:15:42.739
to push these markets around,
703
00:15:43.479 --> 00:15:44.119
but I would be,
704
00:15:44.190 --> 00:15:45.000
and I have done this,
705
00:15:45.080 --> 00:15:46.530
when I've seen markets that I think
706
00:15:46.719 --> 00:15:47.659
come too low,
707
00:15:48.039 --> 00:15:50.159
I would absolutely load up and I would keep loading up,
708
00:15:50.200 --> 00:15:51.250
and you know who else would do it?
709
00:15:51.840 --> 00:15:54.020
Giant institutions with billions of dollars
710
00:15:54.280 --> 00:15:54.909
on their table.
711
00:15:55.119 --> 00:15:55.840
They would look at this and say,
712
00:15:55.950 --> 00:15:56.039
well,
713
00:15:56.080 --> 00:15:56.440
wait a minute,
714
00:15:56.520 --> 00:15:56.760
this is,
715
00:15:56.799 --> 00:15:57.799
this price is wrong.
716
00:15:57.880 --> 00:16:00.340
This market has moved in some strange error.
717
00:16:00.669 --> 00:16:03.549
And we're gonna go up and load up on these shares until it came
718
00:16:03.549 --> 00:16:07.820
back from 80 to 67 or 66 or 65 or whatever it is.
719
00:16:08.309 --> 00:16:08.630
So,
720
00:16:08.909 --> 00:16:09.489
you now,
721
00:16:09.510 --> 00:16:12.409
as this rich person who's put a million dollars into this already.
722
00:16:13.469 --> 00:16:15.090
would have to sit there and defend
723
00:16:15.549 --> 00:16:16.969
that position at 80 cents.
724
00:16:17.190 --> 00:16:20.750
You would have to buy up all these shares and keep putting more and more,
725
00:16:20.950 --> 00:16:24.130
millions and millions and millions of dollars more
726
00:16:24.390 --> 00:16:26.909
onto the market to defend that 80 cents position.
727
00:16:27.950 --> 00:16:28.409
Now,
728
00:16:28.750 --> 00:16:30.849
you might be able to do it for some time.
729
00:16:31.349 --> 00:16:32.330
I don't know how long.
730
00:16:32.710 --> 00:16:34.669
If you want to put $100 million on there,
731
00:16:34.750 --> 00:16:36.469
you might be able to do it for a little while,
732
00:16:36.669 --> 00:16:37.109
right?
733
00:16:37.510 --> 00:16:38.330
But eventually,
734
00:16:38.500 --> 00:16:41.489
the price pressure would come back to where the markets believe
735
00:16:41.630 --> 00:16:42.630
it should be.
736
00:16:43.030 --> 00:16:44.250
There would be a violation
737
00:16:44.549 --> 00:16:45.169
of
738
00:16:45.270 --> 00:16:47.070
what the market of the market efficiency,
739
00:16:47.190 --> 00:16:48.380
and that would be a major problem.
740
00:16:48.710 --> 00:16:51.650
Maintaining that battle would cost you millions of dollars.
741
00:16:52.789 --> 00:16:53.169
Now,
742
00:16:53.590 --> 00:16:55.349
the problem with this also is,
743
00:16:55.539 --> 00:16:56.710
let's say you did that on Calci.
744
00:16:58.570 --> 00:16:59.669
There's another big issue here,
745
00:16:59.789 --> 00:17:00.280
which is,
746
00:17:00.390 --> 00:17:03.039
there are other prediction markets that have the same contract.
747
00:17:03.520 --> 00:17:05.510
When they get way out of whack like that,
748
00:17:05.760 --> 00:17:06.469
what happens?
749
00:17:06.800 --> 00:17:07.579
People start
750
00:17:07.839 --> 00:17:09.819
trading across platforms
751
00:17:10.040 --> 00:17:12.170
to bring those prices back down to reality.
752
00:17:12.439 --> 00:17:13.118
So people who are like,
753
00:17:13.219 --> 00:17:13.239
well,
754
00:17:13.319 --> 00:17:13.719
wait a minute,
755
00:17:13.800 --> 00:17:14.780
I can buy
756
00:17:15.069 --> 00:17:15.979
shares of
757
00:17:16.199 --> 00:17:18.300
a Ken Paxton at 20 cents right now,
758
00:17:18.839 --> 00:17:23.040
and then I can sell shares of Ken Paxton on the other exchange for 36 cents.
759
00:17:23.910 --> 00:17:24.280
Right?
760
00:17:24.709 --> 00:17:25.030
Because they,
761
00:17:25.160 --> 00:17:26.510
so there's a huge split there now.
762
00:17:26.868 --> 00:17:27.229
So,
763
00:17:27.270 --> 00:17:27.848
essentially,
764
00:17:28.229 --> 00:17:28.709
they can,
765
00:17:28.810 --> 00:17:28.979
you know,
766
00:17:29.109 --> 00:17:29.229
again,
767
00:17:29.310 --> 00:17:30.829
you have to have the financial resources to do this,
768
00:17:30.910 --> 00:17:31.109
but I,
769
00:17:31.189 --> 00:17:31.969
I assure you,
770
00:17:32.390 --> 00:17:33.369
people have them,
771
00:17:33.869 --> 00:17:35.430
and they would take across,
772
00:17:35.510 --> 00:17:36.469
it might be polymarket,
773
00:17:36.540 --> 00:17:37.260
it might be predicted,
774
00:17:37.310 --> 00:17:37.780
it might be,
775
00:17:37.790 --> 00:17:37.979
uh,
776
00:17:37.989 --> 00:17:40.010
all the pick the exchange,
777
00:17:40.349 --> 00:17:43.209
and they would start dumping money into that to arbitrage this
778
00:17:43.349 --> 00:17:44.670
and make a big profit that way.
779
00:17:44.780 --> 00:17:45.209
Again,
780
00:17:45.829 --> 00:17:47.430
more pressure that you have to fight off.
781
00:17:47.709 --> 00:17:49.030
Now you're into this for $10.20 dollars,
782
00:17:49.089 --> 00:17:51.310
$30 million who knows how many millions of dollars you're into this,
783
00:17:51.510 --> 00:17:51.839
but
784
00:17:52.300 --> 00:17:53.410
To defend that position,
785
00:17:53.630 --> 00:17:55.369
it would cost basically
786
00:17:55.709 --> 00:17:57.569
uh an unlimited amount of money.
787
00:17:58.569 --> 00:18:02.349
If it was truly a false position that only you were supporting,
788
00:18:02.699 --> 00:18:06.199
every other player in this market would be attacking you constantly,
789
00:18:06.619 --> 00:18:09.839
and you would not be able to defend that position without an unlimited
790
00:18:10.099 --> 00:18:10.680
amount of money.
791
00:18:12.349 --> 00:18:12.750
Now
792
00:18:15.250 --> 00:18:17.630
Trying to keep that gap open would cost even more.
793
00:18:18.290 --> 00:18:18.969
If you did,
794
00:18:19.050 --> 00:18:19.410
however,
795
00:18:19.650 --> 00:18:20.930
successfully inflate these odds.
796
00:18:22.819 --> 00:18:25.250
You have to remember that moving the price
797
00:18:25.430 --> 00:18:27.290
of the first prediction market
798
00:18:27.469 --> 00:18:28.349
is different
799
00:18:28.750 --> 00:18:29.630
than moving votes.
800
00:18:30.550 --> 00:18:32.650
You haven't accomplished anything yet,
801
00:18:33.050 --> 00:18:33.219
right?
802
00:18:33.310 --> 00:18:35.859
Your whole big goal of manipulating the election
803
00:18:36.060 --> 00:18:38.589
has not been accomplished by the fact that that says 80%.
804
00:18:38.709 --> 00:18:41.189
All you've done is create more profit opportunities for me.
805
00:18:41.349 --> 00:18:42.369
That's all you've done so far.
806
00:18:43.430 --> 00:18:44.339
So right now,
807
00:18:44.589 --> 00:18:46.270
you're at a position where you've created,
808
00:18:46.349 --> 00:18:46.550
OK,
809
00:18:46.650 --> 00:18:47.430
let's say there's some buzz.
810
00:18:47.520 --> 00:18:49.069
Maybe a couple media institutions pick it up,
811
00:18:49.109 --> 00:18:50.790
but this has jumped from 66 to 80,
812
00:18:50.989 --> 00:18:51.150
and,
813
00:18:51.229 --> 00:18:53.739
and there's this one odd person buying millions and
814
00:18:53.739 --> 00:18:55.390
millions and millions of contracts at this price.
815
00:18:56.189 --> 00:18:56.739
OK,
816
00:18:56.989 --> 00:18:57.270
great.
817
00:18:58.959 --> 00:18:59.400
Now what?
818
00:19:02.040 --> 00:19:03.189
You have to understand that
819
00:19:03.560 --> 00:19:03.989
you're,
820
00:19:04.119 --> 00:19:05.560
if you're watching this show,
821
00:19:05.880 --> 00:19:06.300
first of all,
822
00:19:06.400 --> 00:19:07.119
I apologize,
823
00:19:07.199 --> 00:19:07.439
uh,
824
00:19:07.520 --> 00:19:07.719
you know,
825
00:19:07.839 --> 00:19:09.079
I barely even brush my hair in the morning,
826
00:19:09.199 --> 00:19:10.060
but secondly,
827
00:19:10.439 --> 00:19:11.319
and more importantly,
828
00:19:12.270 --> 00:19:12.619
You're,
829
00:19:12.709 --> 00:19:14.439
this is a brand new medium.
830
00:19:14.550 --> 00:19:16.140
We're one of the first shows that's
831
00:19:16.140 --> 00:19:18.790
ever been conceived to cover prediction markets.
832
00:19:21.550 --> 00:19:23.819
People don't understand these things yet,
833
00:19:24.109 --> 00:19:24.689
they don't
834
00:19:24.939 --> 00:19:25.910
watch them obsessively,
835
00:19:25.989 --> 00:19:26.180
like,
836
00:19:26.229 --> 00:19:26.930
like you might.
837
00:19:27.630 --> 00:19:28.430
They don't
838
00:19:29.069 --> 00:19:31.329
understand what what these things even do.
839
00:19:31.829 --> 00:19:32.609
Most people
840
00:19:32.760 --> 00:19:33.729
would likely
841
00:19:34.069 --> 00:19:35.180
not even know.
842
00:19:36.579 --> 00:19:39.790
That James Tallarico's price moved from 66 to 80 cents.
843
00:19:40.609 --> 00:19:42.829
They would not even know it occurred.
844
00:19:43.329 --> 00:19:44.729
The only way they would know it occurred
845
00:19:44.729 --> 00:19:47.250
is that maybe if a more mainstream institution
846
00:19:47.410 --> 00:19:48.089
picked up on it,
847
00:19:48.410 --> 00:19:49.410
spread it over multiple days.
848
00:19:49.489 --> 00:19:49.729
Again,
849
00:19:49.810 --> 00:19:51.770
how many millions of dollars are you spending to keep this price?
850
00:19:52.770 --> 00:19:53.219
And
851
00:19:53.479 --> 00:19:54.050
they would cover it and say,
852
00:19:54.079 --> 00:19:54.270
wow,
853
00:19:54.349 --> 00:19:56.949
James Tallarico Tallarico has uh has spiked.
854
00:19:57.060 --> 00:19:58.400
He's he's gone up to 80 cents.
855
00:19:59.439 --> 00:19:59.530
Well,
856
00:19:59.599 --> 00:20:00.369
what does that do?
857
00:20:02.119 --> 00:20:02.829
First of all,
858
00:20:03.280 --> 00:20:05.359
most people would not even know it existed.
859
00:20:05.400 --> 00:20:06.630
You've seen the numbers on CNN.
860
00:20:06.709 --> 00:20:07.560
If CNN ran this thing,
861
00:20:07.640 --> 00:20:07.949
you'd get,
862
00:20:08.030 --> 00:20:08.239
you know,
863
00:20:08.880 --> 00:20:10.780
a couple million super hyper
864
00:20:11.040 --> 00:20:12.619
politically engaged people,
865
00:20:12.839 --> 00:20:13.520
uh,
866
00:20:13.589 --> 00:20:15.400
who would maybe see it and maybe they're like,
867
00:20:15.469 --> 00:20:17.300
wow, ta Rico's doing better than I thought.
868
00:20:17.479 --> 00:20:17.680
But well,
869
00:20:17.770 --> 00:20:19.550
how would that change their behavior exactly?
870
00:20:19.760 --> 00:20:20.069
Remember,
871
00:20:20.079 --> 00:20:21.880
the people who are much more likely to
872
00:20:21.880 --> 00:20:24.219
know about a price change on a prediction market
873
00:20:24.359 --> 00:20:27.979
are the people who are highly politically engaged anyway.
874
00:20:28.869 --> 00:20:31.250
And therefore are very unlikely
875
00:20:31.550 --> 00:20:35.310
to change their vote or not vote because of a prediction market percentage.
876
00:20:36.369 --> 00:20:39.280
The what you'd be gaining here would be so small,
877
00:20:39.290 --> 00:20:40.770
at such a high cost,
878
00:20:41.010 --> 00:20:41.800
even if it worked,
879
00:20:41.849 --> 00:20:43.510
which I assure you it probably wouldn't.
880
00:20:45.530 --> 00:20:47.729
All of that to say that it would be,
881
00:20:47.930 --> 00:20:50.189
you'd be basically preaching to a choir,
882
00:20:50.329 --> 00:20:52.569
a choir of people who had already made up their minds.
883
00:20:53.780 --> 00:20:54.020
Very,
884
00:20:54.099 --> 00:20:55.459
very difficult to try to pull off.
885
00:20:55.619 --> 00:20:55.900
Also,
886
00:20:55.979 --> 00:20:57.719
you don't know what the effect of that is.
887
00:20:58.060 --> 00:20:58.260
Yeah,
888
00:20:58.420 --> 00:20:58.540
sure,
889
00:20:58.619 --> 00:20:58.819
if,
890
00:20:58.900 --> 00:20:59.050
if,
891
00:20:59.089 --> 00:21:00.239
let's say you want Tallarico to win,
892
00:21:00.260 --> 00:21:01.719
you push him up to 80 cents,
893
00:21:02.339 --> 00:21:02.699
yeah,
894
00:21:02.829 --> 00:21:03.050
uh,
895
00:21:03.140 --> 00:21:05.170
it's possible that some people might be like,
896
00:21:05.219 --> 00:21:05.619
oh gosh,
897
00:21:05.699 --> 00:21:05.819
you know,
898
00:21:06.180 --> 00:21:06.890
Republicans see that and like,
899
00:21:06.930 --> 00:21:07.260
oh God,
900
00:21:07.339 --> 00:21:08.060
this election's lost.
901
00:21:08.099 --> 00:21:09.719
I'm not gonna go vote for Ken Paxton.
902
00:21:10.180 --> 00:21:10.420
I mean,
903
00:21:10.540 --> 00:21:10.770
I,
904
00:21:10.859 --> 00:21:11.089
I,
905
00:21:11.180 --> 00:21:11.979
I live in Texas.
906
00:21:12.060 --> 00:21:13.699
I don't know anybody really who would do that,
907
00:21:13.819 --> 00:21:14.260
but OK,
908
00:21:14.339 --> 00:21:14.979
let's say there's,
909
00:21:15.060 --> 00:21:16.489
there's a few people out there that might do it.
910
00:21:16.530 --> 00:21:17.290
It's a close election,
911
00:21:17.339 --> 00:21:17.819
who knows.
912
00:21:18.239 --> 00:21:20.099
You might also get a lot of people
913
00:21:20.380 --> 00:21:20.699
who
914
00:21:20.920 --> 00:21:22.469
become complacent on your side and think,
915
00:21:22.520 --> 00:21:22.839
oh gosh,
916
00:21:22.910 --> 00:21:24.000
we've got this in the bag.
917
00:21:24.439 --> 00:21:24.560
I mean,
918
00:21:24.599 --> 00:21:25.140
I would think
919
00:21:25.280 --> 00:21:27.400
it's probably cancels each other out if you're lucky.
920
00:21:28.079 --> 00:21:28.770
On that front.
921
00:21:30.719 --> 00:21:31.449
And I also just to,
922
00:21:31.569 --> 00:21:31.719
just,
923
00:21:31.729 --> 00:21:31.930
uh,
924
00:21:32.040 --> 00:21:32.170
you know,
925
00:21:32.250 --> 00:21:33.550
look that up a couple of studies.
926
00:21:34.079 --> 00:21:34.869
Earlier in this year,
927
00:21:35.209 --> 00:21:35.479
uh,
928
00:21:35.609 --> 00:21:36.800
only about 20%,
929
00:21:36.930 --> 00:21:40.780
21% of American adults were even somewhat familiar with prediction markets.
930
00:21:41.130 --> 00:21:41.810
So you're talking about a,
931
00:21:41.849 --> 00:21:42.829
a small slice,
932
00:21:43.250 --> 00:21:43.369
that,
933
00:21:43.449 --> 00:21:44.630
that's somewhat familiar,
934
00:21:44.810 --> 00:21:45.410
not,
935
00:21:45.770 --> 00:21:46.130
uh,
936
00:21:46.250 --> 00:21:46.369
you know,
937
00:21:46.530 --> 00:21:48.969
hyper-engaged to know the price movement of every single market,
938
00:21:49.209 --> 00:21:49.569
OK?
939
00:21:49.880 --> 00:21:50.270
Um,
940
00:21:50.439 --> 00:21:51.020
another poll,
941
00:21:51.160 --> 00:21:51.439
uh,
942
00:21:51.560 --> 00:21:52.760
April 2026,
943
00:21:53.079 --> 00:21:55.599
71% of registered voters had recently heard
944
00:21:55.599 --> 00:21:57.300
little or nothing about prediction markets.
945
00:21:57.520 --> 00:21:57.989
By the way,
946
00:21:58.160 --> 00:21:58.319
I mean,
947
00:21:58.439 --> 00:21:59.760
look at the growth potential of this show.
948
00:21:59.880 --> 00:22:01.160
You won't even know what these things are yet.
949
00:22:01.869 --> 00:22:03.010
Maybe I was a little early.
950
00:22:03.150 --> 00:22:03.349
Um,
951
00:22:03.469 --> 00:22:06.250
and then 54% had heard nothing about them.
952
00:22:06.670 --> 00:22:10.819
The majority of our society has never heard of a prediction market.
953
00:22:11.270 --> 00:22:13.589
So how are you manipulating this exactly?
954
00:22:13.709 --> 00:22:15.130
How is that gonna work out for you?
955
00:22:15.670 --> 00:22:17.089
And a small percentage of people,
956
00:22:17.670 --> 00:22:18.469
growing vastly,
957
00:22:18.550 --> 00:22:18.869
by the way,
958
00:22:18.949 --> 00:22:19.839
and that's good,
959
00:22:20.189 --> 00:22:20.310
uh,
960
00:22:20.380 --> 00:22:21.589
but people don't really know.
961
00:22:21.640 --> 00:22:22.329
And the thing is,
962
00:22:22.469 --> 00:22:23.030
as it,
963
00:22:23.189 --> 00:22:24.050
as it grows,
964
00:22:24.180 --> 00:22:27.050
and as you might get to the potential where a market maneuver might,
965
00:22:27.229 --> 00:22:27.689
uh,
966
00:22:27.709 --> 00:22:29.130
manifest itself in a way that might,
967
00:22:29.189 --> 00:22:29.469
uh,
968
00:22:29.550 --> 00:22:29.709
you know,
969
00:22:29.989 --> 00:22:31.369
influence someone's opinion on an election.
970
00:22:33.040 --> 00:22:34.449
Prediction markets are growing so quickly,
971
00:22:34.569 --> 00:22:36.410
by that time there will be even more liquidity.
972
00:22:36.469 --> 00:22:38.010
It'll be even harder to move these markets.
973
00:22:39.540 --> 00:22:39.619
Every look,
974
00:22:39.709 --> 00:22:39.829
look,
975
00:22:39.949 --> 00:22:40.140
let's,
976
00:22:40.180 --> 00:22:41.089
it's one of those things.
977
00:22:41.849 --> 00:22:44.410
Around every little corner in the hedge maze is an end.
978
00:22:44.969 --> 00:22:46.699
You could try to navigate your way through it,
979
00:22:46.770 --> 00:22:48.339
but in this particular hedge maze,
980
00:22:48.380 --> 00:22:50.689
you just keep running into a bush over and over again.
981
00:22:51.020 --> 00:22:53.040
You just slam your face into prickers.
982
00:22:53.219 --> 00:22:53.979
That's what keeps happening.
983
00:22:54.050 --> 00:22:55.959
It would be almost impossible to do.
984
00:22:56.260 --> 00:22:56.420
Um,
985
00:22:56.459 --> 00:22:58.170
let me give you one more example about this,
986
00:22:58.380 --> 00:22:58.900
cause this is actually,
987
00:22:58.979 --> 00:22:59.760
we have some real.
988
00:23:00.489 --> 00:23:00.839
It's funny,
989
00:23:00.890 --> 00:23:02.869
it's in an article that makes it sound really ominous.
990
00:23:03.170 --> 00:23:05.119
On electoral electoral prediction markets,
991
00:23:05.369 --> 00:23:06.410
bets can be played,
992
00:23:06.689 --> 00:23:06.890
placed,
993
00:23:06.930 --> 00:23:07.280
excuse me,
994
00:23:07.349 --> 00:23:09.170
in an attempt to influence the results,
995
00:23:09.380 --> 00:23:10.530
not just predict them.
996
00:23:10.689 --> 00:23:11.969
Here's what to know.
997
00:23:12.130 --> 00:23:12.329
OK,
998
00:23:12.530 --> 00:23:13.060
so what's to know?
999
00:23:13.119 --> 00:23:13.250
Here,
1000
00:23:13.369 --> 00:23:16.040
here's the article How Prediction Markets Upstage Election polls.
1001
00:23:16.359 --> 00:23:16.489
Again,
1002
00:23:16.569 --> 00:23:17.650
I think they are superior,
1003
00:23:17.890 --> 00:23:18.750
but included,
1004
00:23:19.079 --> 00:23:19.449
like,
1005
00:23:19.609 --> 00:23:21.209
polls are part of prediction markets.
1006
00:23:21.520 --> 00:23:23.530
All human knowledge is part of a prediction market.
1007
00:23:23.609 --> 00:23:24.750
That's why it's so good.
1008
00:23:25.250 --> 00:23:25.410
Uh,
1009
00:23:25.650 --> 00:23:25.890
anyway.
1010
00:23:26.339 --> 00:23:26.719
Someone,
1011
00:23:27.219 --> 00:23:27.239
I,
1012
00:23:27.250 --> 00:23:28.780
and I don't even think this was a manipulation attempt,
1013
00:23:28.859 --> 00:23:29.380
to be fair.
1014
00:23:29.660 --> 00:23:32.160
This is just someone who really believed Spencer Pratt was,
1015
00:23:32.300 --> 00:23:32.640
uh,
1016
00:23:32.739 --> 00:23:33.180
uh,
1017
00:23:33.199 --> 00:23:33.300
it,
1018
00:23:33.380 --> 00:23:34.500
it could be a manipulation attempt,
1019
00:23:34.579 --> 00:23:37.520
but I think it was just a guy who just really believed Spencer Pratt was gonna win.
1020
00:23:37.739 --> 00:23:38.140
And by the way,
1021
00:23:38.199 --> 00:23:39.459
a local mayorals race,
1022
00:23:39.579 --> 00:23:40.500
one that was highly covered,
1023
00:23:40.569 --> 00:23:40.810
but a,
1024
00:23:40.819 --> 00:23:41.800
a local race,
1025
00:23:42.180 --> 00:23:44.520
he put $1.26 million
1026
00:23:45.140 --> 00:23:45.760
into,
1027
00:23:45.979 --> 00:23:46.420
uh,
1028
00:23:46.430 --> 00:23:47.619
Spencer Pratt to win.
1029
00:23:48.410 --> 00:23:48.880
And you might say,
1030
00:23:48.939 --> 00:23:49.050
well,
1031
00:23:49.089 --> 00:23:49.199
we,
1032
00:23:49.250 --> 00:23:49.369
you know,
1033
00:23:49.449 --> 00:23:51.930
all the stuff you've been talking about so far is somewhat hypothetical,
1034
00:23:52.060 --> 00:23:52.209
right?
1035
00:23:52.290 --> 00:23:54.079
Like where I'm saying that
1036
00:23:54.209 --> 00:23:55.410
people would push the price back down,
1037
00:23:55.489 --> 00:23:56.890
but you don't know whether to believe me or not.
1038
00:23:57.010 --> 00:23:57.349
Well,
1039
00:23:57.849 --> 00:23:58.599
here's what it looks like.
1040
00:23:58.650 --> 00:23:59.380
This is a chart,
1041
00:23:59.489 --> 00:23:59.689
uh,
1042
00:23:59.810 --> 00:24:00.770
Ben Freeman actually posted this,
1043
00:24:00.849 --> 00:24:01.689
but this is a chart.
1044
00:24:03.619 --> 00:24:04.219
You see,
1045
00:24:04.380 --> 00:24:04.719
uh,
1046
00:24:04.829 --> 00:24:05.239
uh,
1047
00:24:05.300 --> 00:24:07.520
Spencer Pratt was about 28 cents,
1048
00:24:07.900 --> 00:24:08.849
28% to win.
1049
00:24:09.140 --> 00:24:09.880
Someone put,
1050
00:24:10.560 --> 00:24:10.569
uh,
1051
00:24:10.770 --> 00:24:12.880
$1.3 million of their own money
1052
00:24:13.050 --> 00:24:15.040
to buy Spencer Pratt's shares with no
1053
00:24:15.250 --> 00:24:16.119
sense of price,
1054
00:24:16.339 --> 00:24:16.589
and,
1055
00:24:16.609 --> 00:24:20.430
and maybe it was a manipulation attempt just solely because.
1056
00:24:21.270 --> 00:24:25.020
You could get this many shares if you waited and were patient at 28 cents.
1057
00:24:25.310 --> 00:24:27.530
So why would you buy all of them up to 45 cents?
1058
00:24:27.670 --> 00:24:28.579
But let's say it was,
1059
00:24:28.910 --> 00:24:29.790
up to 45 cents,
1060
00:24:29.819 --> 00:24:31.170
it went from 28 to 45,
1061
00:24:31.270 --> 00:24:32.130
massive jump.
1062
00:24:32.430 --> 00:24:33.589
How long did that jump last?
1063
00:24:36.560 --> 00:24:37.500
9 seconds
1064
00:24:39.319 --> 00:24:40.380
The jump lasted
1065
00:24:40.520 --> 00:24:41.160
9.
1066
00:24:42.089 --> 00:24:42.770
Seconds
1067
00:24:44.290 --> 00:24:45.250
The Pratt trader bought,
1068
00:24:45.359 --> 00:24:45.550
uh,
1069
00:24:45.569 --> 00:24:46.410
bought through the order book,
1070
00:24:46.520 --> 00:24:48.510
leading to a massive but temporary change in price.
1071
00:24:48.890 --> 00:24:52.170
The distortion involved a whopping $1.25 million over the course of
1072
00:24:52.170 --> 00:24:56.209
39 trades during a four-hour period visualized in red below.
1073
00:24:56.410 --> 00:24:57.550
The largest of these trades created a
1074
00:24:57.550 --> 00:25:00.530
drama dramatic book activity easily visualized here.
1075
00:25:00.609 --> 00:25:01.810
When he got it up to $45 though,
1076
00:25:01.890 --> 00:25:03.250
it lasted like nine seconds.
1077
00:25:06.650 --> 00:25:07.660
That's not a long time.
1078
00:25:08.329 --> 00:25:10.170
You'd have to have really perceptive people to
1079
00:25:10.170 --> 00:25:12.310
change their vote over that 9 2nd difference,
1080
00:25:12.670 --> 00:25:13.050
um.
1081
00:25:14.569 --> 00:25:15.209
I think,
1082
00:25:15.329 --> 00:25:16.469
to be fair here,
1083
00:25:16.709 --> 00:25:20.810
if you go back enough time or find a market that has no money in it.
1084
00:25:21.530 --> 00:25:21.729
You know,
1085
00:25:21.810 --> 00:25:24.160
there are a lot of small markets like certain margin markets,
1086
00:25:24.209 --> 00:25:25.589
but a lot of this stuff is all,
1087
00:25:25.750 --> 00:25:26.229
uh,
1088
00:25:26.290 --> 00:25:27.750
there's pressures created by it.
1089
00:25:27.959 --> 00:25:29.189
I think if you found a really small market,
1090
00:25:29.250 --> 00:25:30.150
you could move it around,
1091
00:25:30.439 --> 00:25:31.209
probably still.
1092
00:25:31.369 --> 00:25:33.010
I think if you go back 8,
1093
00:25:33.089 --> 00:25:34.030
10 years,
1094
00:25:34.530 --> 00:25:36.030
more of this stuff was attempted
1095
00:25:36.449 --> 00:25:36.560
because,
1096
00:25:36.630 --> 00:25:36.969
you know,
1097
00:25:37.180 --> 00:25:38.329
no one really knew about these things.
1098
00:25:38.410 --> 00:25:39.489
There wasn't a lot of money in them.
1099
00:25:39.569 --> 00:25:39.640
It,
1100
00:25:39.729 --> 00:25:40.589
it wasn't,
1101
00:25:40.650 --> 00:25:43.729
all these different mechanisms didn't necessarily exist
1102
00:25:43.729 --> 00:25:45.229
to correct the price really quickly.
1103
00:25:45.609 --> 00:25:46.609
All that to be said though,
1104
00:25:46.719 --> 00:25:47.349
right now,
1105
00:25:47.930 --> 00:25:48.770
you could attempt it.
1106
00:25:49.390 --> 00:25:52.180
What you would find it was almost impossible to maintain,
1107
00:25:52.390 --> 00:25:54.170
would be massively expensive,
1108
00:25:54.310 --> 00:25:56.369
and would give you almost no results.
1109
00:25:56.869 --> 00:25:57.189
So,
1110
00:25:57.390 --> 00:25:58.160
if that's the,
1111
00:25:58.229 --> 00:25:58.250
the,
1112
00:25:58.260 --> 00:25:59.709
the road you wanna go down,
1113
00:25:59.910 --> 00:26:00.849
give it a whirl.
1114
00:26:01.540 --> 00:26:01.910
Um,
1115
00:26:02.040 --> 00:26:02.650
but I think
1116
00:26:02.949 --> 00:26:03.550
at the end of the day,
1117
00:26:03.589 --> 00:26:04.349
you'd realize that,
1118
00:26:04.510 --> 00:26:04.630
you know,
1119
00:26:04.670 --> 00:26:07.689
if you've got 1020 $30 million to spend.
1120
00:26:08.040 --> 00:26:09.319
To try to hype up an election,
1121
00:26:09.530 --> 00:26:10.530
you're much better,
1122
00:26:10.770 --> 00:26:11.530
more likely to just,
1123
00:26:11.609 --> 00:26:11.989
you know,
1124
00:26:12.369 --> 00:26:13.030
try to
1125
00:26:13.250 --> 00:26:15.329
put together an organization and go door to door,
1126
00:26:15.530 --> 00:26:17.589
or to buy television or radio ads,
1127
00:26:17.770 --> 00:26:18.510
or to do
1128
00:26:18.650 --> 00:26:22.550
any number of normal things in a super PAC that you could do
1129
00:26:22.650 --> 00:26:24.410
and that people are doing all the time.
1130
00:26:24.729 --> 00:26:27.790
This would be likely a massive waste of your money.
1131
00:26:28.130 --> 00:26:28.579
And,
1132
00:26:28.589 --> 00:26:28.760
uh,
1133
00:26:28.770 --> 00:26:29.689
if you wanted to attempt that,
1134
00:26:29.729 --> 00:26:30.349
you could,
1135
00:26:31.010 --> 00:26:33.030
but it is a fool's gold,
1136
00:26:33.329 --> 00:26:34.750
and a fool's errand as well.
1137
00:26:35.010 --> 00:26:35.140
Uh,
1138
00:26:35.209 --> 00:26:35.550
so,
1139
00:26:35.810 --> 00:26:35.930
the,
1140
00:26:36.010 --> 00:26:37.170
the truth of this is.
1141
00:26:37.689 --> 00:26:38.170
When you think,
1142
00:26:38.250 --> 00:26:38.530
oh gosh,
1143
00:26:38.599 --> 00:26:39.650
these things are being manipulated,
1144
00:26:40.010 --> 00:26:41.530
almost certainly no is the answer.
1145
00:26:42.709 --> 00:26:44.079
Almost certainly,
1146
00:26:44.349 --> 00:26:44.670
no.
1147
00:26:46.780 --> 00:26:48.119
There's just no pathway
1148
00:26:48.300 --> 00:26:48.819
to do it
1149
00:26:48.979 --> 00:26:49.979
and do it comfortably.
1150
00:26:50.219 --> 00:26:50.459
Um,
1151
00:26:50.579 --> 00:26:50.780
and,
1152
00:26:50.859 --> 00:26:51.060
uh,
1153
00:26:51.170 --> 00:26:51.739
and honestly,
1154
00:26:51.819 --> 00:26:52.660
even if you did do it,
1155
00:26:52.780 --> 00:26:54.839
it probably wouldn't accomplish anything.
1156
00:26:55.219 --> 00:26:55.560
So,
1157
00:26:55.900 --> 00:26:56.780
that's the truth about that.
1158
00:26:56.900 --> 00:26:56.979
Uh,
1159
00:26:57.060 --> 00:26:58.199
we have more coming up here in a second.
1160
00:26:58.260 --> 00:26:58.859
I wanna get into,
1161
00:26:58.939 --> 00:26:59.130
uh,
1162
00:26:59.140 --> 00:26:59.760
Ohio.
1163
00:27:00.339 --> 00:27:02.260
I wanna get into South Carolina a little bit.
1164
00:27:02.300 --> 00:27:02.579
This is,
1165
00:27:02.589 --> 00:27:02.900
uh,
1166
00:27:03.020 --> 00:27:05.219
South Carolina a little bit on the fringes of this election all of a sudden,
1167
00:27:05.300 --> 00:27:05.780
isn't it?
1168
00:27:06.089 --> 00:27:06.339
Uh,
1169
00:27:06.500 --> 00:27:07.260
that market is,
1170
00:27:07.339 --> 00:27:08.859
is getting kind of interesting.
1171
00:27:09.199 --> 00:27:09.400
Um,
1172
00:27:09.439 --> 00:27:11.459
and some of the ads being run in those campaigns
1173
00:27:11.599 --> 00:27:12.500
are getting interesting.
1174
00:27:12.719 --> 00:27:12.959
Uh,
1175
00:27:13.079 --> 00:27:14.739
so join us at PredictableShow.com.
1176
00:27:14.829 --> 00:27:15.000
By the way,
1177
00:27:15.079 --> 00:27:16.859
we're gonna be doing some live streams coming up here
1178
00:27:16.859 --> 00:27:18.699
to try to get you prepped for the election,
1179
00:27:19.040 --> 00:27:20.900
and of course our election night coverage will be there
1180
00:27:21.260 --> 00:27:21.900
as well.
1181
00:27:22.079 --> 00:27:24.479
We really appreciate you joining us and checking this stuff out.
1182
00:27:24.560 --> 00:27:24.680
I guess,
1183
00:27:24.790 --> 00:27:26.140
as I said just a second ago,
1184
00:27:26.760 --> 00:27:27.359
you're early.
1185
00:27:27.729 --> 00:27:29.119
You're really early on this stuff.
1186
00:27:29.250 --> 00:27:32.119
You understand this stuff before almost anyone around you.
1187
00:27:32.489 --> 00:27:32.770
So,
1188
00:27:33.050 --> 00:27:34.199
take time to understand it,
1189
00:27:34.250 --> 00:27:36.229
to grow and to figure this stuff out,
1190
00:27:36.329 --> 00:27:36.989
but realize,
1191
00:27:37.670 --> 00:27:38.410
be patient with it.
1192
00:27:38.609 --> 00:27:39.560
There is a bit of a,
1193
00:27:39.640 --> 00:27:39.880
uh,
1194
00:27:39.890 --> 00:27:42.609
an uptake when it comes to understanding how these markets work and,
1195
00:27:42.630 --> 00:27:44.050
and what you can do with them and
1196
00:27:44.329 --> 00:27:46.229
how they can be utilized to your benefit.
1197
00:27:46.319 --> 00:27:47.530
We're gonna help you walk you,
1198
00:27:47.670 --> 00:27:48.609
walk you through that process,
1199
00:27:48.619 --> 00:27:48.890
and
1200
00:27:49.050 --> 00:27:50.630
I'll just remem uh recommend again,
1201
00:27:50.770 --> 00:27:51.890
predictable101.com.
1202
00:27:51.930 --> 00:27:53.030
If you're just getting into predictable,
1203
00:27:53.369 --> 00:27:53.589
uh,
1204
00:27:53.609 --> 00:27:54.390
prediction markets,
1205
00:27:54.410 --> 00:27:54.680
uh,
1206
00:27:54.689 --> 00:27:55.229
at the beginning.
1207
00:27:55.739 --> 00:27:56.699
It's a great place to go.
1208
00:27:56.810 --> 00:27:58.760
We'll get you everywhere from signing up to a site,
1209
00:27:58.979 --> 00:27:59.160
uh,
1210
00:27:59.170 --> 00:28:01.619
all the way to buying and selling and all the different ways that they have it,
1211
00:28:01.819 --> 00:28:01.969
uh,
1212
00:28:02.060 --> 00:28:02.780
and more to come.
1213
00:28:02.900 --> 00:28:03.060
So,
1214
00:28:03.079 --> 00:28:03.939
predictable 101,
1215
00:28:04.050 --> 00:28:04.819
great resource for you,
1216
00:28:05.099 --> 00:28:05.719
completely free.
1217
00:28:05.859 --> 00:28:06.020
All right,
1218
00:28:06.099 --> 00:28:06.619
back in a second.
1219
00:28:24.459 --> 00:28:27.079
And now it's time for a tale of two ads.
1220
00:28:27.219 --> 00:28:27.760
Um,
1221
00:28:27.859 --> 00:28:28.640
I
1222
00:28:28.819 --> 00:28:29.780
have noticed a.
1223
00:28:30.520 --> 00:28:32.239
An incongruity,
1224
00:28:32.420 --> 00:28:32.599
if,
1225
00:28:32.680 --> 00:28:33.400
if I may,
1226
00:28:33.479 --> 00:28:33.670
uh,
1227
00:28:33.920 --> 00:28:34.790
between a couple of different ads.
1228
00:28:34.800 --> 00:28:35.739
I wanna walk you
1229
00:28:35.969 --> 00:28:36.640
through this and,
1230
00:28:36.760 --> 00:28:38.300
and show you a couple of prediction markets
1231
00:28:38.640 --> 00:28:40.180
that might give us some opportunities.
1232
00:28:40.400 --> 00:28:40.719
Um,
1233
00:28:40.880 --> 00:28:41.079
here,
1234
00:28:41.160 --> 00:28:41.390
uh,
1235
00:28:41.520 --> 00:28:41.589
we,
1236
00:28:41.660 --> 00:28:43.680
we have the Vivek Ramaswamy ad first.
1237
00:28:43.839 --> 00:28:46.780
Ohio venues are canceling Vivek Ramaswamy events
1238
00:28:47.079 --> 00:28:48.439
as backlash grows.
1239
00:28:48.520 --> 00:28:50.500
This is in response to an ad
1240
00:28:50.880 --> 00:28:51.479
that he put,
1241
00:28:51.560 --> 00:28:52.010
um,
1242
00:28:52.140 --> 00:28:52.619
I mean,
1243
00:28:52.750 --> 00:28:53.699
he didn't say these things,
1244
00:28:53.880 --> 00:28:54.239
but the,
1245
00:28:54.359 --> 00:28:54.979
the mother
1246
00:28:55.329 --> 00:28:56.119
of his opponent,
1247
00:28:56.199 --> 00:28:58.180
Amy Acton said things about
1248
00:28:58.359 --> 00:28:59.040
Amy Acton.
1249
00:28:59.500 --> 00:29:00.449
Said basically this is my daughter.
1250
00:29:00.500 --> 00:29:00.910
I don't think we,
1251
00:29:00.979 --> 00:29:01.319
I think,
1252
00:29:01.420 --> 00:29:02.290
did we run the ad over here?
1253
00:29:02.300 --> 00:29:02.849
I don't even remember.
1254
00:29:02.900 --> 00:29:04.680
I know we did it on Stu and Dave do America,
1255
00:29:04.939 --> 00:29:05.130
but,
1256
00:29:05.140 --> 00:29:05.520
um,
1257
00:29:05.619 --> 00:29:06.729
basically the ad was,
1258
00:29:07.099 --> 00:29:07.300
hey,
1259
00:29:07.380 --> 00:29:08.359
my daughter's a liar.
1260
00:29:08.459 --> 00:29:09.560
She lies all the time.
1261
00:29:09.619 --> 00:29:09.969
Um,
1262
00:29:10.020 --> 00:29:10.500
I love her,
1263
00:29:10.609 --> 00:29:12.020
but she does not tell the truth.
1264
00:29:12.140 --> 00:29:12.839
Don't vote for her.
1265
00:29:13.260 --> 00:29:13.930
You get that pitch.
1266
00:29:14.140 --> 00:29:14.810
Now this is
1267
00:29:15.020 --> 00:29:17.119
much more complicated than I just laid it out because.
1268
00:29:17.479 --> 00:29:17.930
Um,
1269
00:29:18.089 --> 00:29:21.069
Amy Acton said that she was abused as a child
1270
00:29:21.410 --> 00:29:22.030
by
1271
00:29:22.410 --> 00:29:24.150
this biological mother's,
1272
00:29:24.489 --> 00:29:25.420
uh,
1273
00:29:25.449 --> 00:29:25.880
husband,
1274
00:29:26.089 --> 00:29:27.930
so Amy Acton's stepfather,
1275
00:29:27.969 --> 00:29:28.750
if I have the,
1276
00:29:28.969 --> 00:29:30.079
the family tree here,
1277
00:29:30.130 --> 00:29:30.290
uh,
1278
00:29:30.449 --> 00:29:30.910
correct.
1279
00:29:31.329 --> 00:29:34.489
And so they left the house and have not talked to her in a very long time.
1280
00:29:36.050 --> 00:29:36.540
Um,
1281
00:29:38.859 --> 00:29:39.339
Quite
1282
00:29:39.609 --> 00:29:40.040
clearly,
1283
00:29:40.209 --> 00:29:41.890
the media has looked at this and said,
1284
00:29:41.969 --> 00:29:42.130
OK,
1285
00:29:42.250 --> 00:29:42.329
well,
1286
00:29:42.410 --> 00:29:43.069
we believe,
1287
00:29:43.329 --> 00:29:43.640
you know,
1288
00:29:43.890 --> 00:29:44.689
believe all women.
1289
00:29:45.010 --> 00:29:46.329
They believe one of the women,
1290
00:29:46.569 --> 00:29:47.479
which is Amy Acton,
1291
00:29:47.530 --> 00:29:49.569
and don't believe the other woman who is the mom.
1292
00:29:49.729 --> 00:29:49.849
Now,
1293
00:29:49.890 --> 00:29:50.949
I don't know what happened here,
1294
00:29:51.050 --> 00:29:51.099
uh,
1295
00:29:51.130 --> 00:29:51.609
frankly,
1296
00:29:51.729 --> 00:29:51.880
uh,
1297
00:29:51.969 --> 00:29:52.130
you know,
1298
00:29:52.209 --> 00:29:52.599
I.
1299
00:29:53.420 --> 00:29:53.739
It's,
1300
00:29:53.780 --> 00:29:55.219
it's a million years ago and I don't know.
1301
00:29:55.300 --> 00:29:55.459
I mean,
1302
00:29:55.540 --> 00:29:56.130
uh,
1303
00:29:56.339 --> 00:29:57.660
a lot of the evidence makes me think that
1304
00:29:57.660 --> 00:29:59.420
maybe Amy Acton is telling the truth about it,
1305
00:29:59.579 --> 00:29:59.859
but I,
1306
00:29:59.939 --> 00:30:00.099
I,
1307
00:30:00.260 --> 00:30:00.660
I don't know,
1308
00:30:00.770 --> 00:30:00.900
you know,
1309
00:30:00.969 --> 00:30:01.180
I just,
1310
00:30:01.260 --> 00:30:03.300
it's one of those things that it's hard for me to litigate,
1311
00:30:03.380 --> 00:30:03.540
um,
1312
00:30:03.619 --> 00:30:05.160
and nor do I ever wanna think about it.
1313
00:30:05.500 --> 00:30:05.729
Uh,
1314
00:30:05.869 --> 00:30:06.339
obviously,
1315
00:30:06.420 --> 00:30:08.819
if Amy Acton was lying about something this serious,
1316
00:30:08.859 --> 00:30:10.540
it would be something that would be notable and,
1317
00:30:10.660 --> 00:30:11.900
and votes of Ohio,
1318
00:30:11.939 --> 00:30:12.219
uh,
1319
00:30:12.540 --> 00:30:13.140
should know about it.
1320
00:30:13.219 --> 00:30:13.500
But
1321
00:30:13.699 --> 00:30:13.979
then again,
1322
00:30:14.099 --> 00:30:14.849
if she wasn't lying,
1323
00:30:14.900 --> 00:30:16.579
it's a terrible intrusion into a,
1324
00:30:16.729 --> 00:30:17.959
an awful moment,
1325
00:30:18.020 --> 00:30:18.180
uh,
1326
00:30:18.300 --> 00:30:18.500
and,
1327
00:30:18.540 --> 00:30:19.160
uh,
1328
00:30:19.180 --> 00:30:20.479
era of her life,
1329
00:30:20.939 --> 00:30:22.119
and nobody wants that.
1330
00:30:22.540 --> 00:30:22.829
So.
1331
00:30:23.459 --> 00:30:24.680
That's kind of the background of this.
1332
00:30:24.780 --> 00:30:24.969
Now,
1333
00:30:25.099 --> 00:30:27.739
Major Ohio newspapers are reversing their policy
1334
00:30:27.739 --> 00:30:29.849
on endorsements to condemn Ramaswammiy ad.
1335
00:30:29.900 --> 00:30:30.959
I guess they weren't going to,
1336
00:30:30.969 --> 00:30:31.130
uh,
1337
00:30:31.140 --> 00:30:31.959
endorse at all
1338
00:30:32.180 --> 00:30:32.819
in this race,
1339
00:30:32.939 --> 00:30:37.099
so instead they decided they were going to endorse and they endorsed Amy Acton.
1340
00:30:37.660 --> 00:30:38.000
So,
1341
00:30:38.500 --> 00:30:38.619
uh,
1342
00:30:38.780 --> 00:30:39.579
because of this ad.
1343
00:30:40.780 --> 00:30:41.310
OK,
1344
00:30:41.729 --> 00:30:42.010
um,
1345
00:30:42.150 --> 00:30:44.680
polls show Ramoswami falling behind in Ohio's
1346
00:30:44.680 --> 00:30:46.550
governor's race is the headline from,
1347
00:30:46.589 --> 00:30:47.410
uh,
1348
00:30:47.619 --> 00:30:47.880
from,
1349
00:30:47.930 --> 00:30:48.280
uh,
1350
00:30:48.449 --> 00:30:48.880
what is this,
1351
00:30:48.890 --> 00:30:49.209
uh,
1352
00:30:49.329 --> 00:30:49.640
source,
1353
00:30:49.760 --> 00:30:50.170
uh.
1354
00:30:51.150 --> 00:30:51.790
I don't know what it is.
1355
00:30:51.910 --> 00:30:52.329
Anyway,
1356
00:30:52.579 --> 00:30:52.900
uh,
1357
00:30:52.989 --> 00:30:53.219
it is,
1358
00:30:53.229 --> 00:30:53.380
uh,
1359
00:30:53.469 --> 00:30:53.579
they,
1360
00:30:53.709 --> 00:30:56.469
they cite a New York Times Sienna poll released October 3rd.
1361
00:30:56.790 --> 00:30:56.989
Again,
1362
00:30:57.089 --> 00:30:57.099
that,
1363
00:30:57.270 --> 00:30:58.420
that might be before the ad,
1364
00:30:58.469 --> 00:30:58.849
right?
1365
00:30:59.229 --> 00:31:00.280
That was before the ad.
1366
00:31:00.550 --> 00:31:00.750
Um,
1367
00:31:00.829 --> 00:31:01.650
on October 20,
1368
00:31:01.790 --> 00:31:04.229
20th poll has it as a 7 point lead.
1369
00:31:04.310 --> 00:31:05.469
So it went from 4 to 7,
1370
00:31:05.510 --> 00:31:06.349
I guess is their point.
1371
00:31:07.040 --> 00:31:07.689
Um,
1372
00:31:07.890 --> 00:31:08.040
you know,
1373
00:31:08.170 --> 00:31:08.290
again,
1374
00:31:08.390 --> 00:31:09.119
two different pollsters,
1375
00:31:09.130 --> 00:31:10.459
you can't really compare
1376
00:31:10.689 --> 00:31:11.599
two different pollsters,
1377
00:31:11.689 --> 00:31:11.930
um,
1378
00:31:12.089 --> 00:31:12.449
like that,
1379
00:31:12.569 --> 00:31:12.869
but
1380
00:31:12.989 --> 00:31:13.400
whatever.
1381
00:31:13.650 --> 00:31:13.770
Uh,
1382
00:31:13.839 --> 00:31:14.369
you get the point.
1383
00:31:14.489 --> 00:31:14.650
They're,
1384
00:31:14.770 --> 00:31:16.459
they're making this narrative that now it's more of a blowout.
1385
00:31:16.569 --> 00:31:17.089
Now it's been,
1386
00:31:17.250 --> 00:31:17.359
uh,
1387
00:31:17.609 --> 00:31:19.390
Acton's had a lead for a while.
1388
00:31:20.280 --> 00:31:21.300
Hasn't been huge
1389
00:31:22.000 --> 00:31:22.569
Um,
1390
00:31:22.729 --> 00:31:23.310
and
1391
00:31:23.410 --> 00:31:25.469
I don't know how much this ad is affecting,
1392
00:31:25.599 --> 00:31:25.880
uh,
1393
00:31:26.060 --> 00:31:26.209
this.
1394
00:31:26.250 --> 00:31:27.430
I think it is a big talking point.
1395
00:31:27.489 --> 00:31:28.890
I think people are talking about it
1396
00:31:29.130 --> 00:31:29.579
in Ohio.
1397
00:31:29.650 --> 00:31:32.410
I do think sometimes the people who pay super
1398
00:31:32.410 --> 00:31:34.479
close attention to politics in the media and,
1399
00:31:34.530 --> 00:31:34.650
you know,
1400
00:31:34.729 --> 00:31:35.709
on Twitter and everything else
1401
00:31:35.849 --> 00:31:37.349
tend to make more out of
1402
00:31:37.569 --> 00:31:38.910
some of these controversies than,
1403
00:31:39.050 --> 00:31:39.239
uh,
1404
00:31:39.250 --> 00:31:40.209
actual voters do.
1405
00:31:40.709 --> 00:31:41.119
Um,
1406
00:31:41.280 --> 00:31:41.439
you know,
1407
00:31:41.550 --> 00:31:41.680
I,
1408
00:31:41.760 --> 00:31:42.750
it's hard to,
1409
00:31:43.160 --> 00:31:44.050
there are definitely people like,
1410
00:31:44.079 --> 00:31:44.280
think it,
1411
00:31:44.479 --> 00:31:44.750
I mean,
1412
00:31:44.760 --> 00:31:45.459
think about
1413
00:31:45.599 --> 00:31:45.719
what,
1414
00:31:45.800 --> 00:31:47.839
what it would make you to switch parties right now.
1415
00:31:47.920 --> 00:31:49.699
What kind of ad would it need to be
1416
00:31:50.030 --> 00:31:51.219
for you to decide to vote,
1417
00:31:51.449 --> 00:31:51.640
uh,
1418
00:31:51.760 --> 00:31:53.920
for higher or lower taxes or,
1419
00:31:54.040 --> 00:31:54.199
uh,
1420
00:31:54.280 --> 00:31:54.560
you know,
1421
00:31:54.680 --> 00:31:54.839
uh,
1422
00:31:54.920 --> 00:31:55.709
uh,
1423
00:31:55.760 --> 00:31:57.219
the Second Amendment or not the Second Amendment,
1424
00:31:57.280 --> 00:31:57.859
whatever your,
1425
00:31:58.239 --> 00:31:59.420
your opinions are.
1426
00:31:59.719 --> 00:32:01.160
Changing those views for you is,
1427
00:32:01.239 --> 00:32:02.800
is probably pretty hard to do
1428
00:32:03.079 --> 00:32:04.079
and we have to shake you up a little.
1429
00:32:04.209 --> 00:32:05.579
This is a pretty dramatic moment.
1430
00:32:06.079 --> 00:32:06.310
Um,
1431
00:32:06.479 --> 00:32:08.310
this is how the markets have reacted to this,
1432
00:32:08.319 --> 00:32:08.550
and,
1433
00:32:08.680 --> 00:32:08.800
uh,
1434
00:32:08.959 --> 00:32:10.119
and it's kind of interesting.
1435
00:32:11.010 --> 00:32:11.290
Um,
1436
00:32:11.329 --> 00:32:11.890
you see,
1437
00:32:11.969 --> 00:32:12.119
uh,
1438
00:32:12.130 --> 00:32:12.530
Acton,
1439
00:32:12.609 --> 00:32:17.560
after really this being a 50/50 race up until September-ish or so.
1440
00:32:17.890 --> 00:32:18.239
When was it?
1441
00:32:18.290 --> 00:32:19.640
Can you check the date on this ad?
1442
00:32:19.810 --> 00:32:20.829
When did this ad come out?
1443
00:32:20.930 --> 00:32:21.089
I think,
1444
00:32:21.170 --> 00:32:22.699
I feel like it was like 2 or 3 weeks ago.
1445
00:32:23.010 --> 00:32:24.729
So I think it was definitely in October.
1446
00:32:25.000 --> 00:32:25.130
Um,
1447
00:32:25.219 --> 00:32:25.479
we will,
1448
00:32:25.530 --> 00:32:25.689
uh,
1449
00:32:25.770 --> 00:32:26.969
we'll get you to that here in a second,
1450
00:32:27.060 --> 00:32:27.469
but
1451
00:32:28.199 --> 00:32:28.609
Um,
1452
00:32:29.969 --> 00:32:30.229
The,
1453
00:32:30.239 --> 00:32:31.229
the race itself
1454
00:32:31.810 --> 00:32:32.910
is an interesting one.
1455
00:32:33.449 --> 00:32:35.469
And if you saw that market
1456
00:32:35.770 --> 00:32:36.680
and how it had moved,
1457
00:32:36.930 --> 00:32:39.650
it now has it as a 77 to 23 race.
1458
00:32:39.709 --> 00:32:40.400
It looked like it was about,
1459
00:32:40.469 --> 00:32:41.010
it pop,
1460
00:32:41.089 --> 00:32:42.609
it's off a little bit off of its highs,
1461
00:32:42.650 --> 00:32:43.949
but it was 80/20,
1462
00:32:43.959 --> 00:32:44.810
not that long ago.
1463
00:32:45.819 --> 00:32:46.900
Vivek Ramaswamy is
1464
00:32:47.119 --> 00:32:48.060
in a red state.
1465
00:32:48.859 --> 00:32:50.189
And is,
1466
00:32:50.270 --> 00:32:50.989
uh,
1467
00:32:51.000 --> 00:32:52.520
within a few points of Acton.
1468
00:32:53.310 --> 00:32:55.930
We haven't seen much polling that would,
1469
00:32:56.109 --> 00:32:56.550
uh,
1470
00:32:57.030 --> 00:33:00.709
necessarily describe this as a blowout now because of this ad,
1471
00:33:01.069 --> 00:33:01.500
though
1472
00:33:01.670 --> 00:33:02.619
perhaps there's been movement.
1473
00:33:02.670 --> 00:33:02.810
I mean,
1474
00:33:02.869 --> 00:33:04.239
if you squint in the polling average,
1475
00:33:04.310 --> 00:33:05.300
I think you can see it a little bit.
1476
00:33:05.949 --> 00:33:06.130
Uh,
1477
00:33:06.270 --> 00:33:06.550
right now,
1478
00:33:06.630 --> 00:33:07.750
if you see in the middle there,
1479
00:33:07.829 --> 00:33:07.859
uh,
1480
00:33:07.939 --> 00:33:08.670
this is a Calshi,
1481
00:33:08.829 --> 00:33:09.150
um,
1482
00:33:09.189 --> 00:33:09.650
graphic,
1483
00:33:10.030 --> 00:33:13.760
but in the middle there you see D + 3.2 margin forecast.
1484
00:33:13.910 --> 00:33:14.209
So,
1485
00:33:14.469 --> 00:33:14.670
again,
1486
00:33:14.790 --> 00:33:14.979
what,
1487
00:33:15.089 --> 00:33:17.569
what is being forecasted is a 3 point race.
1488
00:33:17.949 --> 00:33:19.810
And it is an 80/20 situation.
1489
00:33:20.390 --> 00:33:20.790
You wonder,
1490
00:33:20.869 --> 00:33:21.489
is there
1491
00:33:21.869 --> 00:33:23.589
opportunity there on the Ramaswamy side?
1492
00:33:23.630 --> 00:33:24.310
At some point,
1493
00:33:24.349 --> 00:33:26.270
this becomes cheap enough that I'm buying shares in it.
1494
00:33:26.390 --> 00:33:27.410
I don't know what it is.
1495
00:33:28.040 --> 00:33:28.390
Uh,
1496
00:33:28.479 --> 00:33:28.910
but it's,
1497
00:33:28.959 --> 00:33:29.709
it's close.
1498
00:33:30.040 --> 00:33:30.359
We're,
1499
00:33:30.400 --> 00:33:31.109
we're almost there.
1500
00:33:31.280 --> 00:33:31.640
And honestly,
1501
00:33:31.680 --> 00:33:33.599
I kind of thought Ramaswami would win this race,
1502
00:33:33.619 --> 00:33:33.750
uh,
1503
00:33:33.800 --> 00:33:34.979
if you go back 6 months.
1504
00:33:35.479 --> 00:33:35.760
Um,
1505
00:33:35.880 --> 00:33:36.709
Amy Acton is the,
1506
00:33:36.760 --> 00:33:36.910
uh,
1507
00:33:37.000 --> 00:33:37.630
the COVID,
1508
00:33:37.640 --> 00:33:38.219
uh,
1509
00:33:38.920 --> 00:33:39.380
chief
1510
00:33:39.719 --> 00:33:40.540
for Ohio.
1511
00:33:40.640 --> 00:33:43.800
Ohio kind of famously known as the one red state that was really,
1512
00:33:43.880 --> 00:33:45.079
really restrictive
1513
00:33:45.359 --> 00:33:46.430
when it came to,
1514
00:33:46.439 --> 00:33:46.869
um,
1515
00:33:47.119 --> 00:33:47.939
these particular,
1516
00:33:48.040 --> 00:33:48.739
uh,
1517
00:33:48.839 --> 00:33:49.770
restrictions for COVID.
1518
00:33:49.839 --> 00:33:50.469
So interesting,
1519
00:33:50.560 --> 00:33:50.859
but
1520
00:33:51.359 --> 00:33:52.390
I also wanna kind of just,
1521
00:33:52.599 --> 00:33:53.800
maybe this is a little bit of a sidebar.
1522
00:33:55.750 --> 00:33:57.040
It sure seems
1523
00:33:57.400 --> 00:33:58.660
like there's a lot,
1524
00:33:59.040 --> 00:33:59.400
uh,
1525
00:33:59.520 --> 00:34:03.699
there's a much higher amounts of consternation against Vivek Ramaswamy
1526
00:34:03.920 --> 00:34:06.890
than there was in the race in South Carolina.
1527
00:34:07.750 --> 00:34:08.540
Where we saw
1528
00:34:09.239 --> 00:34:09.438
a,
1529
00:34:09.500 --> 00:34:10.938
an expose
1530
00:34:11.199 --> 00:34:11.958
of Lindsay,
1531
00:34:12.080 --> 00:34:13.719
not Darlene Graham Nordone,
1532
00:34:13.800 --> 00:34:14.360
the candidate,
1533
00:34:14.438 --> 00:34:15.469
but Lindsey Graham,
1534
00:34:15.679 --> 00:34:16.899
the dead senator,
1535
00:34:17.120 --> 00:34:17.350
uh,
1536
00:34:17.399 --> 00:34:20.449
who passed away and is the brother of Lindsey Graham,
1537
00:34:20.918 --> 00:34:21.780
because of some
1538
00:34:22.639 --> 00:34:24.719
alleged sexual habits he had.
1539
00:34:24.879 --> 00:34:26.208
A big expose
1540
00:34:26.399 --> 00:34:27.978
put out there by left-wing groups
1541
00:34:28.199 --> 00:34:31.239
to say that Lindsey Graham was hooking up with male prostitutes.
1542
00:34:31.668 --> 00:34:31.800
Uh,
1543
00:34:31.870 --> 00:34:35.280
and these male prostitutes are just presented in the most glowing of light,
1544
00:34:35.438 --> 00:34:35.600
uh,
1545
00:34:35.719 --> 00:34:36.750
which I'm sure they're the most,
1546
00:34:36.840 --> 00:34:38.080
the greatest people in the world,
1547
00:34:38.159 --> 00:34:39.020
no doubt about it.
1548
00:34:39.360 --> 00:34:39.889
Um,
1549
00:34:40.360 --> 00:34:40.639
this is,
1550
00:34:40.708 --> 00:34:41.070
and this is,
1551
00:34:41.080 --> 00:34:41.708
of course,
1552
00:34:41.719 --> 00:34:42.418
covered by,
1553
00:34:42.918 --> 00:34:43.080
you know,
1554
00:34:43.199 --> 00:34:44.560
this getting lots of attention.
1555
00:34:44.679 --> 00:34:44.790
Uh,
1556
00:34:44.830 --> 00:34:48.360
the video by left-wing group claims Lindsey Graham paid men for sex.
1557
00:34:48.590 --> 00:34:51.199
Progressive activists released a video of three men
1558
00:34:51.449 --> 00:34:54.179
making the allegations about the South Carolina Republican
1559
00:34:54.520 --> 00:34:54.639
who,
1560
00:34:54.688 --> 00:34:54.918
you know,
1561
00:34:55.000 --> 00:34:55.780
is dead.
1562
00:34:56.570 --> 00:34:58.129
And has been since July.
1563
00:34:58.790 --> 00:34:59.770
Um,
1564
00:35:00.379 --> 00:35:01.830
Darlene Graham won't,
1565
00:35:01.909 --> 00:35:02.139
uh,
1566
00:35:02.270 --> 00:35:04.449
answer questions about these claims.
1567
00:35:06.570 --> 00:35:07.149
Just
1568
00:35:07.409 --> 00:35:08.110
answer me that question,
1569
00:35:08.250 --> 00:35:09.050
why would she?
1570
00:35:09.399 --> 00:35:09.469
I,
1571
00:35:09.530 --> 00:35:09.689
I,
1572
00:35:09.729 --> 00:35:10.469
frankly,
1573
00:35:10.929 --> 00:35:12.310
why on earth would
1574
00:35:12.570 --> 00:35:13.530
the sister,
1575
00:35:13.810 --> 00:35:15.270
a grieving sister
1576
00:35:16.010 --> 00:35:16.689
of a guy,
1577
00:35:16.879 --> 00:35:17.429
answer
1578
00:35:18.050 --> 00:35:21.250
questions about whether he was hooking up with male prostitutes.
1579
00:35:22.199 --> 00:35:22.889
Of course he's,
1580
00:35:22.969 --> 00:35:24.649
she's not answering questions about that.
1581
00:35:24.929 --> 00:35:25.649
She's the candidate,
1582
00:35:25.729 --> 00:35:26.489
he's not.
1583
00:35:28.929 --> 00:35:31.550
President Trump holding a rally in South Carolina,
1584
00:35:31.969 --> 00:35:32.439
um,
1585
00:35:32.689 --> 00:35:33.379
to try to
1586
00:35:33.850 --> 00:35:34.719
close the voting gap.
1587
00:35:34.770 --> 00:35:35.189
I will say,
1588
00:35:35.290 --> 00:35:35.409
uh,
1589
00:35:35.489 --> 00:35:35.610
you know,
1590
00:35:35.689 --> 00:35:37.239
this is another thing that a lot is a big rumor.
1591
00:35:37.330 --> 00:35:40.010
One of the reasons these markets are moving like they are
1592
00:35:40.290 --> 00:35:42.979
is Democratic early vote numbers look very good
1593
00:35:43.169 --> 00:35:44.010
in many places,
1594
00:35:44.120 --> 00:35:44.600
not everywhere,
1595
00:35:44.610 --> 00:35:45.669
but in many places.
1596
00:35:45.899 --> 00:35:46.330
Um,
1597
00:35:46.610 --> 00:35:46.850
uh,
1598
00:35:46.969 --> 00:35:47.770
I'm not a big,
1599
00:35:47.850 --> 00:35:48.429
I don't,
1600
00:35:48.810 --> 00:35:52.449
I don't dive too deeply into the early voting stuff because it's very,
1601
00:35:52.560 --> 00:35:53.409
very hard to read.
1602
00:35:53.729 --> 00:35:54.010
Um,
1603
00:35:54.129 --> 00:35:54.479
so,
1604
00:35:54.610 --> 00:35:54.689
I,
1605
00:35:54.770 --> 00:35:56.729
I'll show you some tools that maybe can help with that.
1606
00:35:56.800 --> 00:35:58.129
I know Patrick Ruffinni started one,
1607
00:35:58.169 --> 00:35:59.469
which I thought was pretty helpful,
1608
00:35:59.889 --> 00:36:01.469
but I just don't know how much you get out of it,
1609
00:36:01.729 --> 00:36:01.929
um,
1610
00:36:02.090 --> 00:36:02.889
because you just don't know.
1611
00:36:03.000 --> 00:36:04.040
You don't know,
1612
00:36:04.370 --> 00:36:04.479
uh,
1613
00:36:04.500 --> 00:36:04.580
uh,
1614
00:36:04.659 --> 00:36:05.850
it can measure passion.
1615
00:36:06.610 --> 00:36:06.810
Uh,
1616
00:36:06.929 --> 00:36:07.629
it can measure,
1617
00:36:08.129 --> 00:36:08.290
you know,
1618
00:36:08.489 --> 00:36:08.969
certain things,
1619
00:36:09.050 --> 00:36:09.810
but you just don't know.
1620
00:36:09.860 --> 00:36:10.000
Like,
1621
00:36:10.090 --> 00:36:10.209
you know,
1622
00:36:10.280 --> 00:36:11.229
it's one of those things
1623
00:36:11.489 --> 00:36:11.850
that when,
1624
00:36:11.929 --> 00:36:12.129
you know,
1625
00:36:12.209 --> 00:36:12.449
if you,
1626
00:36:12.530 --> 00:36:12.889
if you say,
1627
00:36:12.989 --> 00:36:13.320
hey,
1628
00:36:13.610 --> 00:36:14.209
we're gonna knock,
1629
00:36:14.250 --> 00:36:14.530
uh,
1630
00:36:14.610 --> 00:36:16.250
$10,000 off our cars,
1631
00:36:16.520 --> 00:36:16.610
uh,
1632
00:36:16.679 --> 00:36:18.370
for the next 5 days and you get a bunch of sales,
1633
00:36:18.489 --> 00:36:21.550
how many of those sales were people that were gonna buy anyway for $10,000 more
1634
00:36:21.850 --> 00:36:22.570
two weeks from now?
1635
00:36:22.770 --> 00:36:25.610
And they moved their purchase up because you gave them this big discount.
1636
00:36:25.679 --> 00:36:26.209
You just don't know.
1637
00:36:26.270 --> 00:36:28.479
And when people get excited and they get out there and they vote early,
1638
00:36:28.719 --> 00:36:30.770
that might mean that they're very excited to vote,
1639
00:36:30.929 --> 00:36:31.590
but their vote,
1640
00:36:31.969 --> 00:36:32.800
at least at this point,
1641
00:36:33.050 --> 00:36:34.149
still only counts once.
1642
00:36:35.429 --> 00:36:37.239
This is what the South Carolina race looks like,
1643
00:36:37.310 --> 00:36:38.139
and you can see.
1644
00:36:38.919 --> 00:36:39.159
You know,
1645
00:36:39.439 --> 00:36:41.590
without the negative media attention on,
1646
00:36:41.639 --> 00:36:41.929
on,
1647
00:36:41.939 --> 00:36:42.310
uh,
1648
00:36:42.320 --> 00:36:43.689
someone like Ramaswamy for his
1649
00:36:43.919 --> 00:36:44.979
controversial ad,
1650
00:36:45.229 --> 00:36:46.399
Annie Andrews is just,
1651
00:36:46.479 --> 00:36:46.600
you know,
1652
00:36:46.719 --> 00:36:47.699
kind of cruising along
1653
00:36:48.000 --> 00:36:50.379
and now increasing to a 24% chance.
1654
00:36:51.030 --> 00:36:51.229
Um,
1655
00:36:51.360 --> 00:36:51.879
Darlene Graham,
1656
00:36:51.919 --> 00:36:52.570
I have backed out.
1657
00:36:52.739 --> 00:36:52.750
I,
1658
00:36:52.800 --> 00:36:54.239
I had some Darlene Graham early.
1659
00:36:54.320 --> 00:36:56.399
I took a little bit of a loss on it because I just,
1660
00:36:56.520 --> 00:36:56.639
you know,
1661
00:36:56.719 --> 00:36:58.330
I don't think she's the greatest candidate in the world,
1662
00:36:58.479 --> 00:36:59.739
having nothing to do with whether her
1663
00:37:00.439 --> 00:37:02.120
dead brother slept with dudes.
1664
00:37:02.399 --> 00:37:02.510
Uh,
1665
00:37:02.570 --> 00:37:02.790
but like,
1666
00:37:02.840 --> 00:37:02.959
you know,
1667
00:37:03.030 --> 00:37:03.239
I just,
1668
00:37:03.320 --> 00:37:05.199
I don't think she's a great candidate and I do think there's
1669
00:37:05.199 --> 00:37:07.760
a little bit of a worry on the fringes of a blue wave
1670
00:37:07.919 --> 00:37:09.260
that this race could be affected.
1671
00:37:09.600 --> 00:37:09.760
Um,
1672
00:37:09.840 --> 00:37:10.280
and I just like,
1673
00:37:10.350 --> 00:37:10.560
you know what,
1674
00:37:10.639 --> 00:37:11.719
I'll take a tiny loss now again,
1675
00:37:11.840 --> 00:37:11.850
uh,
1676
00:37:11.959 --> 00:37:11.989
what,
1677
00:37:12.120 --> 00:37:12.610
what's our.
1678
00:37:13.800 --> 00:37:16.020
17th Amendment to the predictable Constitution is
1679
00:37:16.159 --> 00:37:17.330
a smaller loss
1680
00:37:17.479 --> 00:37:18.080
is a win.
1681
00:37:18.370 --> 00:37:19.469
So I might not lose that race.
1682
00:37:19.520 --> 00:37:21.840
I think likely she'll probably still win
1683
00:37:22.070 --> 00:37:22.919
in South Carolina,
1684
00:37:23.000 --> 00:37:23.239
but
1685
00:37:23.479 --> 00:37:23.899
that's the thing,
1686
00:37:23.959 --> 00:37:25.560
when you don't have this negative attention,
1687
00:37:25.639 --> 00:37:26.000
like it's,
1688
00:37:26.070 --> 00:37:27.040
it's not like Amy Adams,
1689
00:37:27.120 --> 00:37:27.459
uh,
1690
00:37:27.560 --> 00:37:28.159
Amy Adams,
1691
00:37:28.239 --> 00:37:29.139
I don't know if she's running,
1692
00:37:29.439 --> 00:37:29.679
um,
1693
00:37:29.800 --> 00:37:30.159
Annie,
1694
00:37:30.280 --> 00:37:30.550
what is it?
1695
00:37:30.560 --> 00:37:31.100
Annie,
1696
00:37:31.610 --> 00:37:32.280
Annie Andrews,
1697
00:37:32.350 --> 00:37:33.379
Annie Williams,
1698
00:37:33.750 --> 00:37:34.040
um,
1699
00:37:34.159 --> 00:37:34.550
what's her name?
1700
00:37:34.800 --> 00:37:35.810
Annie Andrews.
1701
00:37:36.040 --> 00:37:37.209
I have no idea what her name is.
1702
00:37:37.350 --> 00:37:39.520
I got have her confused with 9 different actresses.
1703
00:37:39.949 --> 00:37:40.320
Um,
1704
00:37:40.429 --> 00:37:40.629
uh,
1705
00:37:40.830 --> 00:37:41.370
she
1706
00:37:41.590 --> 00:37:42.189
is
1707
00:37:42.389 --> 00:37:43.370
in this race and,
1708
00:37:43.379 --> 00:37:43.540
and,
1709
00:37:43.610 --> 00:37:45.030
and is not dealing with the negatives.
1710
00:37:45.110 --> 00:37:45.239
Now,
1711
00:37:45.429 --> 00:37:47.419
there is a distinction here that I wanna make sure I point out.
1712
00:37:47.770 --> 00:37:49.129
It was a Ramaswamy
1713
00:37:49.310 --> 00:37:49.909
ad.
1714
00:37:50.350 --> 00:37:53.489
Though the controversy started and it was being covered heavily
1715
00:37:53.989 --> 00:37:55.870
before anyone knew it was a Ramaswamy ad.
1716
00:37:55.989 --> 00:37:56.060
Uh,
1717
00:37:56.139 --> 00:37:57.909
they had to confirm that like a week later.
1718
00:37:58.189 --> 00:37:59.780
So I don't know if that actually counts or not,
1719
00:37:59.830 --> 00:38:00.020
but,
1720
00:38:00.310 --> 00:38:00.429
uh,
1721
00:38:00.550 --> 00:38:01.780
Andrew's not getting the negative attention.
1722
00:38:01.830 --> 00:38:02.939
I will just say that there's just,
1723
00:38:02.989 --> 00:38:04.850
you'd think there'd be an equal,
1724
00:38:05.189 --> 00:38:05.300
uh,
1725
00:38:05.350 --> 00:38:09.310
at least an equal amount of outrage versus at these two approaches.
1726
00:38:09.739 --> 00:38:10.320
At the very least,
1727
00:38:10.340 --> 00:38:11.300
you'd think it would be an equal amount,
1728
00:38:11.310 --> 00:38:12.540
and of course it's not at all.
1729
00:38:12.669 --> 00:38:13.899
And that tells you something very,
1730
00:38:13.979 --> 00:38:14.560
very true
1731
00:38:15.020 --> 00:38:15.679
about the media
1732
00:38:15.860 --> 00:38:16.530
to this moment,
1733
00:38:16.620 --> 00:38:18.300
it will continue probably to the end of time.
1734
00:38:18.409 --> 00:38:18.540
OK,
1735
00:38:18.659 --> 00:38:19.199
gotta take a break.
1736
00:38:19.379 --> 00:38:19.820
Back in a second.
1737
00:38:34.409 --> 00:38:39.570
So the NBA is partnering with Calci and Poly Market amid regulation fights as
1738
00:38:39.570 --> 00:38:42.750
ESPN and there's been a lot of these partnerships that have started up,
1739
00:38:43.000 --> 00:38:43.199
uh,
1740
00:38:43.330 --> 00:38:43.840
and,
1741
00:38:43.889 --> 00:38:44.169
uh,
1742
00:38:44.250 --> 00:38:44.399
you know,
1743
00:38:44.489 --> 00:38:44.850
it like,
1744
00:38:44.909 --> 00:38:45.310
it's
1745
00:38:46.010 --> 00:38:46.250
obviously,
1746
00:38:46.290 --> 00:38:46.929
I think there's a,
1747
00:38:47.370 --> 00:38:48.409
an obvious crossover.
1748
00:38:48.929 --> 00:38:51.149
Sports is one of those things that people are comfortable
1749
00:38:51.929 --> 00:38:52.850
thinking about in this way,
1750
00:38:53.250 --> 00:38:55.429
taking their knowledge and turning it into
1751
00:38:55.729 --> 00:38:57.110
positions they might gain,
1752
00:38:57.129 --> 00:38:57.520
uh,
1753
00:38:57.530 --> 00:38:58.129
money on.
1754
00:38:58.439 --> 00:38:58.649
Um,
1755
00:38:58.689 --> 00:38:59.899
that's been happening obviously for a while,
1756
00:38:59.969 --> 00:39:00.199
I think,
1757
00:39:00.250 --> 00:39:00.530
you know,
1758
00:39:00.649 --> 00:39:00.850
my,
1759
00:39:00.929 --> 00:39:01.189
my
1760
00:39:01.370 --> 00:39:03.129
personal opinion is that a prediction market gives you a much
1761
00:39:03.129 --> 00:39:05.139
better experience than some of the other options in that world,
1762
00:39:05.209 --> 00:39:05.439
but,
1763
00:39:05.770 --> 00:39:05.889
uh,
1764
00:39:06.050 --> 00:39:06.489
that being said,
1765
00:39:06.580 --> 00:39:06.810
it's,
1766
00:39:06.919 --> 00:39:08.389
it's one of those situations where,
1767
00:39:08.610 --> 00:39:08.810
um,
1768
00:39:08.889 --> 00:39:09.709
it's a growing,
1769
00:39:09.729 --> 00:39:09.959
uh,
1770
00:39:09.969 --> 00:39:10.090
thing,
1771
00:39:10.129 --> 00:39:11.070
and a lot of people
1772
00:39:11.209 --> 00:39:14.570
who are already familiar with that type of monetary risk
1773
00:39:14.850 --> 00:39:16.489
are able to kind of jump into these markets a
1774
00:39:16.489 --> 00:39:18.580
lot quicker than the average person who's never really,
1775
00:39:18.590 --> 00:39:18.600
uh,
1776
00:39:18.610 --> 00:39:19.780
dabbled in that way.
1777
00:39:20.209 --> 00:39:20.780
Um,
1778
00:39:20.989 --> 00:39:21.270
of course,
1779
00:39:21.389 --> 00:39:22.189
there's a legal battle.
1780
00:39:22.310 --> 00:39:23.010
Uh,
1781
00:39:23.189 --> 00:39:24.610
there are a lot of your,
1782
00:39:25.229 --> 00:39:25.429
your,
1783
00:39:25.489 --> 00:39:26.209
your nanny
1784
00:39:26.389 --> 00:39:27.340
is out is out there,
1785
00:39:27.350 --> 00:39:27.469
and,
1786
00:39:27.580 --> 00:39:28.969
and their nanny always wants to make sure
1787
00:39:28.969 --> 00:39:30.820
you're doing what they think is responsible.
1788
00:39:30.909 --> 00:39:31.719
That's important.
1789
00:39:32.030 --> 00:39:33.780
Government always knows best.
1790
00:39:33.989 --> 00:39:37.290
They always know what you should do with your money better than you,
1791
00:39:37.389 --> 00:39:39.020
and I can't believe you're still questioning that.
1792
00:39:39.070 --> 00:39:40.389
I'm very upset at you
1793
00:39:40.709 --> 00:39:42.520
for even thinking that you,
1794
00:39:42.830 --> 00:39:44.810
you would know what to do with your money.
1795
00:39:45.560 --> 00:39:47.760
That's disgusting for you to even believe that.
1796
00:39:48.530 --> 00:39:49.050
The truth is,
1797
00:39:49.129 --> 00:39:49.570
of course,
1798
00:39:49.689 --> 00:39:51.389
the people in Washington know best,
1799
00:39:51.610 --> 00:39:53.360
and the people in all of your different states.
1800
00:39:53.489 --> 00:39:53.719
Um,
1801
00:39:54.360 --> 00:39:55.429
Calci could be headed for a,
1802
00:39:55.449 --> 00:39:55.800
uh,
1803
00:39:55.810 --> 00:39:57.239
Supreme Court showdown,
1804
00:39:57.610 --> 00:39:57.719
uh,
1805
00:39:57.810 --> 00:39:59.290
says the CEO of Calci,
1806
00:39:59.330 --> 00:40:00.159
but interesting,
1807
00:40:00.169 --> 00:40:00.590
um,
1808
00:40:00.600 --> 00:40:03.149
nugget in this particular report is from Reuters.
1809
00:40:04.770 --> 00:40:05.570
Uh,
1810
00:40:05.659 --> 00:40:06.030
this,
1811
00:40:06.449 --> 00:40:07.120
this is,
1812
00:40:07.250 --> 00:40:08.209
because one of the things people say is like,
1813
00:40:08.250 --> 00:40:08.370
oh,
1814
00:40:08.439 --> 00:40:08.889
it's all,
1815
00:40:08.969 --> 00:40:09.090
you know,
1816
00:40:09.159 --> 00:40:09.850
it's all sports,
1817
00:40:09.889 --> 00:40:10.350
it's all,
1818
00:40:10.449 --> 00:40:11.320
uh,
1819
00:40:11.530 --> 00:40:13.870
sports betting and all these other things.
1820
00:40:14.860 --> 00:40:16.100
We've gone through that a million times,
1821
00:40:16.179 --> 00:40:16.600
but,
1822
00:40:17.060 --> 00:40:17.179
you know,
1823
00:40:17.290 --> 00:40:18.760
it has been a high percentage
1824
00:40:18.939 --> 00:40:19.949
of what,
1825
00:40:20.179 --> 00:40:20.409
uh,
1826
00:40:20.419 --> 00:40:21.810
these prediction markets are doing,
1827
00:40:21.860 --> 00:40:23.580
as for the reasons I just stated,
1828
00:40:23.899 --> 00:40:24.100
and,
1829
00:40:24.179 --> 00:40:25.280
and others as well,
1830
00:40:25.500 --> 00:40:25.739
um,
1831
00:40:25.820 --> 00:40:26.620
which we can talk about,
1832
00:40:26.699 --> 00:40:27.600
but this is the new,
1833
00:40:27.689 --> 00:40:28.320
uh,
1834
00:40:28.530 --> 00:40:28.810
rate,
1835
00:40:28.830 --> 00:40:29.129
and it's,
1836
00:40:29.149 --> 00:40:30.080
it's quite a different,
1837
00:40:30.100 --> 00:40:30.530
uh,
1838
00:40:30.540 --> 00:40:30.860
story.
1839
00:40:31.120 --> 00:40:34.739
Sports now generate about 65% of Calshi's revenue.
1840
00:40:35.080 --> 00:40:37.570
That is down from approximately 95%
1841
00:40:37.760 --> 00:40:38.860
9 months ago.
1842
00:40:39.239 --> 00:40:39.429
So,
1843
00:40:39.520 --> 00:40:40.159
in just 9 months,
1844
00:40:40.199 --> 00:40:42.040
it's gone from 95% to 65%.
1845
00:40:42.080 --> 00:40:43.040
The reason for that is,
1846
00:40:43.120 --> 00:40:43.239
you know,
1847
00:40:43.350 --> 00:40:44.389
it's a couple of different things.
1848
00:40:44.639 --> 00:40:45.879
People getting more familiar with them,
1849
00:40:46.040 --> 00:40:49.600
more money coming in from institutions and other people who are interested in this.
1850
00:40:50.080 --> 00:40:50.290
Um,
1851
00:40:50.409 --> 00:40:52.040
and interested in different topics.
1852
00:40:52.370 --> 00:40:53.919
The other thing too is obviously the elections,
1853
00:40:54.050 --> 00:40:54.560
and this is,
1854
00:40:54.570 --> 00:40:54.810
remember,
1855
00:40:54.879 --> 00:40:56.070
a pretty boring
1856
00:40:56.370 --> 00:40:57.350
midterm election.
1857
00:40:57.570 --> 00:40:58.209
When I say boring,
1858
00:40:58.290 --> 00:40:58.610
I mean like,
1859
00:40:58.649 --> 00:40:58.889
you know,
1860
00:40:59.010 --> 00:41:00.290
there's a heavy favorite here.
1861
00:41:00.340 --> 00:41:02.280
This does not seem like a 50/50 thing,
1862
00:41:02.489 --> 00:41:02.929
you know,
1863
00:41:03.169 --> 00:41:03.949
it's not like the,
1864
00:41:04.090 --> 00:41:05.629
the normal exciting election.
1865
00:41:05.810 --> 00:41:08.050
Can you imagine what 2028 is going to look like?
1866
00:41:08.370 --> 00:41:08.850
If it's 6,
1867
00:41:08.929 --> 00:41:10.050
only 65% now,
1868
00:41:10.209 --> 00:41:10.550
I imagine,
1869
00:41:10.969 --> 00:41:11.239
uh,
1870
00:41:11.250 --> 00:41:11.939
what it's going to be.
1871
00:41:12.820 --> 00:41:13.419
As you go forward,
1872
00:41:13.479 --> 00:41:15.850
it's probably gonna be even lower than 65% that sports.
1873
00:41:16.459 --> 00:41:16.860
And of course,
1874
00:41:16.959 --> 00:41:17.139
you know,
1875
00:41:17.340 --> 00:41:18.320
part of the reason for this is
1876
00:41:18.540 --> 00:41:18.919
they don't,
1877
00:41:19.020 --> 00:41:20.280
they don't put 10
1878
00:41:20.919 --> 00:41:23.860
elections on TV every single night all year long,
1879
00:41:23.979 --> 00:41:24.290
right?
1880
00:41:24.620 --> 00:41:24.959
The
1881
00:41:25.300 --> 00:41:26.419
sports is unique.
1882
00:41:26.540 --> 00:41:29.169
There's so many events associated with sports,
1883
00:41:29.479 --> 00:41:29.590
right?
1884
00:41:29.689 --> 00:41:31.379
There's 82 games in an NBA schedule.
1885
00:41:31.459 --> 00:41:31.620
There,
1886
00:41:31.909 --> 00:41:32.379
there are,
1887
00:41:32.459 --> 00:41:32.739
you know,
1888
00:41:32.820 --> 00:41:33.399
obviously,
1889
00:41:33.500 --> 00:41:36.235
every weekend is loaded with Football and college football.
1890
00:41:36.594 --> 00:41:36.985
You also,
1891
00:41:37.034 --> 00:41:37.314
of course,
1892
00:41:37.395 --> 00:41:38.235
have Major League Baseball,
1893
00:41:38.274 --> 00:41:39.435
162 games,
1894
00:41:39.475 --> 00:41:40.864
which they should keep it 162,
1895
00:41:40.915 --> 00:41:41.195
by the way.
1896
00:41:41.334 --> 00:41:42.304
Stop screwing with the numbers.
1897
00:41:43.104 --> 00:41:43.114
Well,
1898
00:41:43.195 --> 00:41:44.185
they need more days off.
1899
00:41:44.314 --> 00:41:44.834
Stop it.
1900
00:41:45.175 --> 00:41:45.524
Stop.
1901
00:41:45.705 --> 00:41:46.245
160.
1902
00:41:46.354 --> 00:41:47.485
Keep it consistent.
1903
00:41:47.834 --> 00:41:48.104
Anyway,
1904
00:41:48.354 --> 00:41:48.844
point is,
1905
00:41:48.905 --> 00:41:50.215
a lot more opportunities to go in,
1906
00:41:50.225 --> 00:41:50.314
uh,
1907
00:41:50.425 --> 00:41:50.584
on,
1908
00:41:50.635 --> 00:41:52.594
in the sporting world than there are in the election world,
1909
00:41:52.645 --> 00:41:53.354
but these elections.
1910
00:41:53.860 --> 00:41:54.199
When,
1911
00:41:54.260 --> 00:41:55.340
as they are taking hold,
1912
00:41:55.459 --> 00:41:57.409
can you imagine what 2028 is gonna be like?
1913
00:41:57.739 --> 00:42:00.530
Imagine a presidential race with these things going on
1914
00:42:00.659 --> 00:42:01.239
in a way that
1915
00:42:01.370 --> 00:42:03.719
people are really engaged with it and really trying
1916
00:42:04.080 --> 00:42:04.250
to,
1917
00:42:04.260 --> 00:42:04.810
uh,
1918
00:42:04.820 --> 00:42:06.080
understand these elections more
1919
00:42:06.219 --> 00:42:07.340
and potentially profit as well.
1920
00:42:07.419 --> 00:42:08.500
I hope you'll be here with me.
1921
00:42:08.580 --> 00:42:08.679
Uh,
1922
00:42:08.780 --> 00:42:09.800
we'll be profiting here.
1923
00:42:09.979 --> 00:42:10.090
Uh,
1924
00:42:10.179 --> 00:42:10.540
I hope,
1925
00:42:10.629 --> 00:42:10.770
uh,
1926
00:42:10.860 --> 00:42:11.360
next,
1927
00:42:11.370 --> 00:42:11.379
uh,
1928
00:42:11.389 --> 00:42:11.840
Tuesday,
1929
00:42:11.979 --> 00:42:13.120
big election live stream,
1930
00:42:13.300 --> 00:42:14.159
part of our coverage,
1931
00:42:14.370 --> 00:42:14.600
uh,
1932
00:42:14.620 --> 00:42:16.820
on YouTube.com/atpredictableshow
1933
00:42:17.100 --> 00:42:18.969
and predictableshow.com.
1934
00:42:31.479 --> 00:42:31.639
Well,
1935
00:42:31.719 --> 00:42:34.219
the Philadelphia Eagles fell to 2 and 5.
1936
00:42:35.689 --> 00:42:37.540
As their season continues to spiral downwards,
1937
00:42:37.580 --> 00:42:39.850
the home loss to the Dallas freaking Cowboys.
1938
00:42:39.929 --> 00:42:40.100
Yes,
1939
00:42:40.219 --> 00:42:41.879
this is the worst day of my year.
1940
00:42:42.300 --> 00:42:42.520
Um,
1941
00:42:42.610 --> 00:42:42.939
and,
1942
00:42:42.989 --> 00:42:43.489
uh,
1943
00:42:43.550 --> 00:42:44.020
I will say,
1944
00:42:44.139 --> 00:42:44.419
look,
1945
00:42:44.530 --> 00:42:45.120
uh,
1946
00:42:45.570 --> 00:42:46.760
doesn't always work out every year.
1947
00:42:47.100 --> 00:42:47.219
Uh,
1948
00:42:47.340 --> 00:42:47.889
Eagles have had,
1949
00:42:47.939 --> 00:42:48.520
I will say,
1950
00:42:48.780 --> 00:42:50.040
very fortunate,
1951
00:42:50.379 --> 00:42:50.580
uh,
1952
00:42:50.699 --> 00:42:52.159
injury luck over the years,
1953
00:42:52.419 --> 00:42:52.659
um,
1954
00:42:52.780 --> 00:42:52.929
uh,
1955
00:42:53.060 --> 00:42:54.419
over this past run in particular.
1956
00:42:54.689 --> 00:42:55.209
This year,
1957
00:42:55.340 --> 00:42:56.649
they're paying the price for that,
1958
00:42:56.659 --> 00:42:57.459
and every single,
1959
00:42:57.560 --> 00:43:00.100
I think they're on their 6th running back last night at one point,
1960
00:43:00.260 --> 00:43:01.919
their 6th string running back,
1961
00:43:02.189 --> 00:43:02.500
um.
1962
00:43:02.959 --> 00:43:03.439
That's not good.
1963
00:43:03.600 --> 00:43:04.919
Not to mention they're aren't playing well.
1964
00:43:05.040 --> 00:43:08.060
Their defense was pretty healthy and was absolutely terrible yesterday,
1965
00:43:08.159 --> 00:43:09.340
so no excuses here.
1966
00:43:09.669 --> 00:43:09.870
Um,
1967
00:43:10.000 --> 00:43:11.620
but there's no excuses for you either,
1968
00:43:11.639 --> 00:43:11.959
because every,
1969
00:43:12.040 --> 00:43:12.159
you know,
1970
00:43:12.199 --> 00:43:12.790
every once in a while,
1971
00:43:12.820 --> 00:43:13.860
I do ask you for something.
1972
00:43:14.320 --> 00:43:14.550
I say,
1973
00:43:14.620 --> 00:43:14.719
hey,
1974
00:43:14.800 --> 00:43:14.959
you know,
1975
00:43:15.080 --> 00:43:15.479
do you mind,
1976
00:43:15.560 --> 00:43:17.199
if you got the extra currency out there,
1977
00:43:17.280 --> 00:43:17.360
you know,
1978
00:43:17.479 --> 00:43:18.120
you wanna come on,
1979
00:43:19.040 --> 00:43:19.350
become a,
1980
00:43:19.360 --> 00:43:19.520
a,
1981
00:43:19.600 --> 00:43:21.199
a predictableShow.com member.
1982
00:43:21.479 --> 00:43:23.820
It's a great value for you and you'll get great value out of it.
1983
00:43:24.239 --> 00:43:24.760
And you might say,
1984
00:43:24.830 --> 00:43:24.879
well,
1985
00:43:24.939 --> 00:43:25.949
I don't wanna spend any money on that,
1986
00:43:25.959 --> 00:43:26.760
and I understand that.
1987
00:43:26.909 --> 00:43:27.360
However,
1988
00:43:27.949 --> 00:43:28.229
You should,
1989
00:43:28.310 --> 00:43:28.989
you don't have to.
1990
00:43:29.199 --> 00:43:30.850
I gave you the free money
1991
00:43:31.030 --> 00:43:33.149
a long time ago when I told you
1992
00:43:33.340 --> 00:43:37.090
it was 100% guaranteed the Philadelphia Eagles were not gonna win
1993
00:43:37.669 --> 00:43:39.770
13 games this year.
1994
00:43:40.070 --> 00:43:41.530
It was completely insane.
1995
00:43:41.709 --> 00:43:43.689
You could have turned that into any amount of money,
1996
00:43:43.860 --> 00:43:44.030
uh,
1997
00:43:44.060 --> 00:43:44.909
that you wanted to,
1998
00:43:45.149 --> 00:43:45.379
and,
1999
00:43:45.389 --> 00:43:45.669
uh,
2000
00:43:45.750 --> 00:43:46.290
and I'm,
2001
00:43:46.389 --> 00:43:47.409
I'm doing that myself.
2002
00:43:47.790 --> 00:43:47.909
Uh,
2003
00:43:47.949 --> 00:43:48.729
I will say,
2004
00:43:48.780 --> 00:43:48.989
uh.
2005
00:43:49.054 --> 00:43:50.524
It is nice to get paid for your pain.
2006
00:43:50.574 --> 00:43:52.135
We like to hedge our life a little bit here.
2007
00:43:52.304 --> 00:43:52.655
So if you,
2008
00:43:52.774 --> 00:43:53.445
this is one of the reasons,
2009
00:43:53.814 --> 00:43:55.614
one of the ways I sincerely use prediction markets.
2010
00:43:55.854 --> 00:43:56.054
Look,
2011
00:43:56.215 --> 00:43:57.875
my days get worse when the Eagles lose,
2012
00:43:58.014 --> 00:43:58.485
and they suck.
2013
00:43:58.534 --> 00:43:59.495
This season's gonna suck,
2014
00:43:59.534 --> 00:44:00.754
and I gotta get all the way through it.
2015
00:44:01.014 --> 00:44:01.495
I'm,
2016
00:44:01.574 --> 00:44:01.844
I'm,
2017
00:44:01.895 --> 00:44:02.235
I'm,
2018
00:44:02.245 --> 00:44:03.094
I'm not happy about it,
2019
00:44:03.175 --> 00:44:03.504
but
2020
00:44:03.695 --> 00:44:05.875
I'm being paid for my pain routinely,
2021
00:44:06.094 --> 00:44:06.254
you know,
2022
00:44:06.935 --> 00:44:07.324
I have,
2023
00:44:07.415 --> 00:44:07.655
uh,
2024
00:44:07.814 --> 00:44:09.245
do we have the market on the how many wins?
2025
00:44:09.294 --> 00:44:10.235
What are they saying now?
2026
00:44:10.695 --> 00:44:11.054
Oh God.
2027
00:44:11.215 --> 00:44:13.774
The days after that big Tennessee win in the last seconds
2028
00:44:13.774 --> 00:44:15.715
when they were thinking it was gonna be 13 wins,
2029
00:44:16.495 --> 00:44:16.614
uh,
2030
00:44:16.695 --> 00:44:18.034
now they're saying it's 6.
2031
00:44:19.219 --> 00:44:19.760
6.
2032
00:44:19.959 --> 00:44:22.439
I have no positions on everything down to 9 wins.
2033
00:44:22.479 --> 00:44:24.060
I think that's as pessimistic as I got.
2034
00:44:24.479 --> 00:44:25.719
I wish I went lower than that.
2035
00:44:25.909 --> 00:44:25.989
Uh,
2036
00:44:26.040 --> 00:44:27.520
but the bottom line is you can hedge,
2037
00:44:27.600 --> 00:44:27.709
uh,
2038
00:44:27.830 --> 00:44:28.040
you know,
2039
00:44:28.120 --> 00:44:28.540
your own
2040
00:44:28.919 --> 00:44:29.379
pain.
2041
00:44:29.679 --> 00:44:30.850
And get paid for that pain,
2042
00:44:31.050 --> 00:44:31.189
uh,
2043
00:44:31.199 --> 00:44:32.080
with prediction Markets.
2044
00:44:32.169 --> 00:44:32.280
Uh,
2045
00:44:32.330 --> 00:44:34.929
it's a tool I really like using and I do all the time.
2046
00:44:35.060 --> 00:44:35.310
So,
2047
00:44:35.570 --> 00:44:35.689
anyway,
2048
00:44:35.800 --> 00:44:35.919
uh,
2049
00:44:35.969 --> 00:44:37.530
that's what we have for tonight's show.
2050
00:44:37.810 --> 00:44:37.879
Uh,
2051
00:44:37.929 --> 00:44:39.090
go to predictableShow.com.
2052
00:44:39.290 --> 00:44:41.550
Take the money you should have won on the Eagles and put it into this,
2053
00:44:41.570 --> 00:44:41.770
uh,
2054
00:44:41.850 --> 00:44:42.889
in the website membership.
2055
00:44:42.969 --> 00:44:43.169
You'll,
2056
00:44:43.239 --> 00:44:44.270
you'll get value out of it.
2057
00:44:44.479 --> 00:44:45.110
Many people,
2058
00:44:45.330 --> 00:44:45.439
uh,
2059
00:44:45.489 --> 00:44:45.770
on the,
2060
00:44:45.850 --> 00:44:46.129
that are,
2061
00:44:46.209 --> 00:44:46.399
uh,
2062
00:44:46.409 --> 00:44:47.850
subscribers are already saying they paid for their
2063
00:44:47.850 --> 00:44:49.600
entire year's subscription just based on it.
2064
00:44:49.850 --> 00:44:50.209
So,
2065
00:44:50.530 --> 00:44:50.870
please
2066
00:44:51.050 --> 00:44:52.429
jump on board PredictableShow.com.
2067
00:44:52.530 --> 00:44:53.010
We'll see you later.