00:00:06
Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed, business news you can use today. AI giant Anthropic targets wealthy Australian investors after it files its prospectus in what could be the biggest IPO in history. Retailer David Jones under pressure after reportedly failing to meet one of its loan conditions. And 10% of all deaths in Australia are now due to dementia. Plus, Treasurer Jim Chalmers unveils more changes to capital gains tax rules and the country's sheep flock. falls to its lowest level in a century. It is Wednesday, the 28th of October, 2026. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.
00:00:44
Speaker 2: And good morning to you, Michael. Oh, no. I couldn't help myself. I'm sorry.
00:00:51
Speaker 1: What a terrible way to start the show, Sean. Let's get onto the main story this morning. Artificial intelligence giant Anthropic is targeting wealthy Australian investors as it prepares for what really could be one of the biggest share market floats in history.
00:01:07
Speaker 2: This is huge.
00:01:08
Speaker 1: The company behind the Claude AI models is seeking to raise more than $ 100 billion, potentially valuing it at up to $ 2 trillion. That would put it ahead of SpaceX's $ 1. 8 trillion a couple of months ago. Its 355-page IPO prospectus reveals a lot, actually. It reveals extraordinary growth. with quarterly revenue surging nearly 1,400% compared with a year earlier. But losses, they are enormous, reaching $ 80. 7 billion in the first half of 2026, largely due to accounting adjustments, really.
00:01:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. And Stropic will list on NASDAQ and will be the first fully focused AI company to go public. It's seven owners. including sibling co-founders Dario and Daniela Armaday? Well, they're going to be worth about $ 13 billion each, assuming this all goes ahead as advertised. Macquarie Capital locally is among the banks underwriting the float, with Australian participation restricted to professional and sophisticated investors. Very much the ultimate test case for AI in 2026. Now, if it's valued at $ 2 trillion or more, then.
00:02:33
Speaker 2: Investors will be happy to join the party. If it can't attract bids at that level, and we here have experienced firmest technologies recently, so we understand what that's about, then it could well be the beginning of an almighty sell-off of AI companies.
00:02:51
Speaker 1: I want to dig a little deeper into what else is revealed within the prospectus, because we talked about the financials, but there's a lot more in it than just that. There's a lot of details and info About the state of the AI industry more broadly, at one point, the document says that advanced AI systems, and I quote, could, if not developed, deployed and operated with appropriate safeguards, oversight and security measures, pose catastrophic or existential risks to humanity, particularly if such systems were misused, replicated, weaponized, or allowed to operate with a high degree of autonomy. So it's a cheery kind of outlook. Now, it also addresses data center development and the public backlash against them, which is something that we have talked about here in Australia as well, and expects to attract heightened scrutiny over how it tackles environmental and social tensions, which makes sense, right?
00:03:50
Speaker 2: Yes. It's also relying more and more on Google, Amazon, and Microsoft to sell its AI technology to customers, even though the companies all compete in computing power space. In fact, Just five companies account for about 25% of revenue. But these companies, they're not named. They're likely to be competitors in some parts, suppliers in others. This whole AI sector is a very circular industry. So the problem is, if one goes bad, then that puts all the others at risk. Now, the prospectus has got to outline potential risks. And what you were talking about, that certainly fits into that basket. In fact, Anthropics spent about 70,000 words. Outlining the risks. So, you know, plenty there. End of the day, the most critical test is whether investors believe anthropic revenue can keep growing at these accelerated paces to basically pay for all the spending. And we are talking about spending not in billions or hundreds of billions of dollars. We are talking about spending over the next sort of few or over the next decade or so in trillions of dollars. So can it keep revenue growing at an exponential rate to pay for all the spending? Wow.
00:05:09
Speaker 1: Isn't it interesting? Doesn't it just say a lot about kind of where we are now that previous IPOs, a previous prospector, say for maybe a retailer or something along those lines, would go through the risks, right? But they would be risks kind of almost contained to the investment case. These companies are so big and so important that it's actually now warning about the risks to all of humanity and potentially kind of life on earth. If things go wrong, it's just good gracious. The, um, the anthropic prospectus was the talk of the market yesterday. Uh, today though, it's all about inflation. Sean, the September quarter inflation figures, they'll be released at 1130 this morning. An underlying quarter of 1% or more is likely to tip the odds in favour of a rate hike next Tuesday, according to economists.
00:06:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, looking forward to seeing what the number says. Meanwhile, the S & P ASX 200 closed up half a percent yesterday to 8,850 points. It's the highest the market's been in more than five weeks. The big miners led the way, notwithstanding. Iron ore prices dropped to their lowest level in more than a couple of years yesterday in the back of weaker demand. Copper prices are helping BHP and Rio Tinto. Both ended up around 3%. Goodman Group was another winner, up 3%, while the big banks were mixed.
00:06:41
Speaker 1: We are in the middle of AGM season, Sean, and with that comes upgraded forecasts for revenue and profit. At CSL's meeting yesterday, the Blood Plasma Group said earnings would be up by about 5% this year, which was in line with expectations, and CSL's share price rose 0.5%.
00:06:58
Speaker 2: Casino Group Star Entertainment's shares rallied 13% after the company reported strong quarterly activities ahead of its AGM and Universal Store Holdings provided an update for the first 17 weeks of this financial year. Direct customer sales jumped 9%, thanks in large part to women's fashion label Perfect Stranger, not one I've heard of, let alone bought from But the point there is Universal Store Holdings very much defying the tough times for many retailers.
00:07:29
Speaker 1: While we're on the topic of retailers, there are reports this morning, Sean, that department store David Jones is on the edge of financial failure.
00:07:39
Speaker 2: So David Jones has been struggling for quite a few months. The Fin Review this morning is reporting that DJ's primary lender, a British investor called Hilco Global... has the right to take control after the retailer breached a covenant. Now, a covenant's basically, what, a legal, legally binding condition on the loan. Hilco told the Finn it remained supportive. So we're not saying it's about to happen. But there's smoke. Less supportive. Brands like Country Road, Witchery, Mimco, they've pulled some of their concessions from David Jones. You look more broadly, my share price is off 58% this year. In the US, Macy's has been closing stores. The parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus, that's fallen into bankruptcy. Really, really difficult time for David Jones and department stores.
00:08:28
Speaker 1: Maybe I'm asking the wrong person because you are quite old fashioned. But when was the last time you went into a department store like David Jones or Meijer?
00:08:39
Speaker 2: I had David Jones for a cup of tea and a bit of lunch, you know. My grandmother always used to take me. If we came to Sydney to visit Sydney and my grandmother was with us, you'd duck in the DJs for lunch. You'd get where your Sunday best. Off you'd go. It was quite spectacular.
00:08:56
Speaker 1: 50 years ago, Sean. Yeah, I know. I can't remember going into Meyer and David Jones all the time. You'd be going in to buy kind of T-shirts and stuff because they just had kind of good, a heap of stuff.
00:09:06
Speaker 2: No, not anymore.
00:09:07
Speaker 1: Just buy it all online.
00:09:09
Speaker 2: It's just, yeah. It's kind of true. Anyway.
00:09:11
Speaker 1: That was a wild ride down memory lane for you, Sean. Back in a moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean, Treasurer Jim Chalmers has unveiled further changes to Labor's capital gains tax reforms, introducing new concessions for investors in innovative startups. The latest legislation establishes an innovative business capital gains tax concession, allowing early investors and eligible startups to retain significant discounts on their future capital gains. The government's also claiming to simplify research and development tax incentives. And from July next year, venture capital tax incentives will be expanded. to encourage investment in young, growing companies.
00:10:03
Speaker 2: The changes form part of a broader $ 3. 8 billion package of tax relief and concessions for businesses and start-ups. While in Canberra, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said duress alarms for MPs along with heightened security for their homes and electorate officers are among the options a fast-tracked inquiry into increased security will consider following last week's attack on independent MP Helen Haynes. Meanwhile, complaints to the tax office watchdog have soared 74% over the past year as workers and small businesses struggle with the ATO's crackdown on outstanding tax bills and penalties.
00:10:41
Speaker 1: I mentioned this one at the top of the show. Dementia now accounts for more than 10% More than 10%.
00:10:48
Speaker 2: Of all deaths.
00:10:49
Speaker 1: That's double the level of 20 years ago. Figures from the Bureau of Stats show that dementia, including Alzheimer's disease, claimed just over 19,000 lives in 2025. Women accounted for 61% of dementia deaths, with the condition remaining their leading cause of death now for the 10th consecutive year. And that is really because women tend to live longer than men.
00:11:15
Speaker 2: Yes. Despite the increase, Australia's overall mortality rates are returning to their long-term downward trend following the pandemic. The male mortality rate reached a record low, while the female rate was the second lowest on record. What's interesting, obviously people are living longer, and most dementia-related deaths occur when people are in their 80s or 90s, so you would expect that to be growing. But there's other reasons for it as well. So there's been a decline in fatality rates in other killer diseases. So strokes heart disease we can treat it a lot better so as a result people don't die from those sorts of diseases anywhere near as much as they used to also doctors are just much better at diagnosing dementia too so that has boosted the numbers there all right.
00:12:01
Speaker 1: Now south australia has been named the best state in australia to do business for the fourth consecutive year While Victoria has again finished last, the Business Council of Australia's annual regulation rumble rankings assess states and territories on taxes, planning systems, licensing requirements, and other business regulations. It really does make kind of regulations sexy.
00:12:27
Speaker 2: Rumbling. Yeah. Yeah. Do you think the people at the BCA, and we love Brian Black. He's a listener. Yeah. I'm a big fan of Brian Black. Do you think they all got together and said, how are we going to sex up this particular ranking? Let's call it a regulation rumble. Oh, 100%. 100%.
00:12:43
Speaker 1: You've got us talking about it.
00:12:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, totally. I mean, we're talking about payroll tax settings here, right? And licensing. Make that sexy. Oh, boy.
00:12:53
Speaker 1: It's getting hot in here, Sean.
00:12:55
Speaker 2: Those two issues, South Australia led. Tasmania topped rankings for planning. Settle down, Michael. Settle. Victoria finished last overall overall. also slipping to last place on planning, with major reforms not due to take effect until October next year. New South Wales was only just above Victoria, thanks to some improvements in its planning rules. We're loving it. The aforementioned Brian Black, the chief executive of the Business Council, says excessive red tape is costing businesses time and money, ultimately pushing up prices for consumers. In fact, he used this example. He said it's extraordinary opening a cafe online requires navigating 34 separate licences, approvals or processes in Victoria, 36 in Tasmania. That is crazy.
00:13:44
Speaker 1: And that's just to open the business, let alone all the pressures that are then on you as a small business owner actually running the business once you've got it.
00:13:52
Speaker 2: Wow.
00:13:53
Speaker 1: The nation's sheep flock, Sean, has fallen to its... Ah, Sean?
00:13:58
Speaker 2: Sheep flock?
00:13:59
Speaker 1: Oh, God, that's... This is writing itself.
00:14:02
Speaker 2: This material. Oh, I've lived with this name for a long time, yeah.
00:14:06
Speaker 1: It has fallen to its lowest level in 100 years just as demand for sheep and lamb prices hit record highs and wool prices moved back to levels not seen now since pre-COVID. New research from Rabobank says the national flock has fallen to around 66 million sheep. Which sounds like a lot, doesn't it? But it is down from a peak of 180 million in 1970. You couldn't turn a corner without tripping over a sheep back in the seventies. Despite strong global demand for Australian sheep meat and wool. Farmers are reluctant to rebuild their flocks because of high costs, because of labour shortages, and also seasonal uncertainty weighs on it too.
00:14:51
Speaker 2: Rabobank expects sheep numbers to remain relatively stable over the next five years, meaning production growth will depend increasingly on better breeding, technology, farm management, those sorts of things. Productivity, dare I say, per sheep, more output per sheep. The good news for producers is that global sheep meat consumption is is forecast to grow by almost 2% annually through to 2030. I mean, it's kind of a silver lining because we're not actually growing the flock, but the actual prices are better. That's what Rubber Bank thinks. It thinks land prices will remain strong. And if we're not going to grow our flock and there's more demand, they're likely to be correct.
00:15:32
Speaker 1: Just so intrigued by the concept of more output per sheep.
00:15:36
Speaker 2: I suppose it makes.
00:15:39
Speaker 1: Sense, doesn't it? Turning to international news now, Sean, Microsoft will offer buyout packages to up to 60,000 staff as the tech giant tries to keep costs under control and pare its workforce back as it spends hundreds of billions of dollars on AI. Employees in the US, Canada, UK and India who work in certain divisions and are at the vice president level or below will be eligible to apply for severance packages, according to the FT.
00:16:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's very widespread. So Xbox, Windows, co-pilot AI, chatbot products, all among divisions included in the program. Microsoft, like its big tech rivals, has been spending hundreds of billions of dollars on AI, developing its own frontier-level models and constructing or leasing dozens of new data centers every quarter to meet demand. So it's trying to find cost savings, and this is how it's doing. The new voluntary exit offer comes after Microsoft made a voluntary retirement program available to older, longer-serving staff in July.
00:16:41
Speaker 1: We mentioned a few times throughout the show the pressures that businesses are under at the moment, Sean. Perfect timing for today's Fear and Greed Q & A interview. We're speaking today with NAB's Andrew Orbach, who this is what he does. He speaks to small businesses. He spends his life travelling. He travels around the country speaking to businesses. And we talk about what's separating successful businesses from those struggling and growing pressures on cash flow.
00:17:09
Speaker 2: The latest National Australia Bank business survey paints such a gloomy picture. And we talked to him about why that's the case. It's fantastic, Chad. Yeah, indeed.
00:17:18
Speaker 1: It's coming up next in the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at fearandgreed.com.au, which is really the place to sign up for the free daily newsletter as well. Also, there's a link in the show notes if you just want to take the shortcut. Thanks, Sean.
00:17:33
Speaker 2: Thanks, Michael.
00:17:33
Speaker 1: It's Wednesday, the 28th of October, 2026. Make sure you are following the podcast and join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.
Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed, business news you can use today. AI giant Anthropic targets wealthy Australian investors after it files its prospectus in what could be the biggest IPO in history. Retailer David Jones under pressure after reportedly failing to meet one of its loan conditions. And 10% of all deaths in Australia are now due to dementia. Plus, Treasurer Jim Chalmers unveils more changes to capital gains tax rules and the country's sheep flock. falls to its lowest level in a century. It is Wednesday, the 28th of October, 2026. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.
00:00:44
Speaker 2: And good morning to you, Michael. Oh, no. I couldn't help myself. I'm sorry.
00:00:51
Speaker 1: What a terrible way to start the show, Sean. Let's get onto the main story this morning. Artificial intelligence giant Anthropic is targeting wealthy Australian investors as it prepares for what really could be one of the biggest share market floats in history.
00:01:07
Speaker 2: This is huge.
00:01:08
Speaker 1: The company behind the Claude AI models is seeking to raise more than $ 100 billion, potentially valuing it at up to $ 2 trillion. That would put it ahead of SpaceX's $ 1. 8 trillion a couple of months ago. Its 355-page IPO prospectus reveals a lot, actually. It reveals extraordinary growth. with quarterly revenue surging nearly 1,400% compared with a year earlier. But losses, they are enormous, reaching $ 80. 7 billion in the first half of 2026, largely due to accounting adjustments, really.
00:01:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. And Stropic will list on NASDAQ and will be the first fully focused AI company to go public. It's seven owners. including sibling co-founders Dario and Daniela Armaday? Well, they're going to be worth about $ 13 billion each, assuming this all goes ahead as advertised. Macquarie Capital locally is among the banks underwriting the float, with Australian participation restricted to professional and sophisticated investors. Very much the ultimate test case for AI in 2026. Now, if it's valued at $ 2 trillion or more, then.
00:02:33
Speaker 2: Investors will be happy to join the party. If it can't attract bids at that level, and we here have experienced firmest technologies recently, so we understand what that's about, then it could well be the beginning of an almighty sell-off of AI companies.
00:02:51
Speaker 1: I want to dig a little deeper into what else is revealed within the prospectus, because we talked about the financials, but there's a lot more in it than just that. There's a lot of details and info About the state of the AI industry more broadly, at one point, the document says that advanced AI systems, and I quote, could, if not developed, deployed and operated with appropriate safeguards, oversight and security measures, pose catastrophic or existential risks to humanity, particularly if such systems were misused, replicated, weaponized, or allowed to operate with a high degree of autonomy. So it's a cheery kind of outlook. Now, it also addresses data center development and the public backlash against them, which is something that we have talked about here in Australia as well, and expects to attract heightened scrutiny over how it tackles environmental and social tensions, which makes sense, right?
00:03:50
Speaker 2: Yes. It's also relying more and more on Google, Amazon, and Microsoft to sell its AI technology to customers, even though the companies all compete in computing power space. In fact, Just five companies account for about 25% of revenue. But these companies, they're not named. They're likely to be competitors in some parts, suppliers in others. This whole AI sector is a very circular industry. So the problem is, if one goes bad, then that puts all the others at risk. Now, the prospectus has got to outline potential risks. And what you were talking about, that certainly fits into that basket. In fact, Anthropics spent about 70,000 words. Outlining the risks. So, you know, plenty there. End of the day, the most critical test is whether investors believe anthropic revenue can keep growing at these accelerated paces to basically pay for all the spending. And we are talking about spending not in billions or hundreds of billions of dollars. We are talking about spending over the next sort of few or over the next decade or so in trillions of dollars. So can it keep revenue growing at an exponential rate to pay for all the spending? Wow.
00:05:09
Speaker 1: Isn't it interesting? Doesn't it just say a lot about kind of where we are now that previous IPOs, a previous prospector, say for maybe a retailer or something along those lines, would go through the risks, right? But they would be risks kind of almost contained to the investment case. These companies are so big and so important that it's actually now warning about the risks to all of humanity and potentially kind of life on earth. If things go wrong, it's just good gracious. The, um, the anthropic prospectus was the talk of the market yesterday. Uh, today though, it's all about inflation. Sean, the September quarter inflation figures, they'll be released at 1130 this morning. An underlying quarter of 1% or more is likely to tip the odds in favour of a rate hike next Tuesday, according to economists.
00:06:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, looking forward to seeing what the number says. Meanwhile, the S & P ASX 200 closed up half a percent yesterday to 8,850 points. It's the highest the market's been in more than five weeks. The big miners led the way, notwithstanding. Iron ore prices dropped to their lowest level in more than a couple of years yesterday in the back of weaker demand. Copper prices are helping BHP and Rio Tinto. Both ended up around 3%. Goodman Group was another winner, up 3%, while the big banks were mixed.
00:06:41
Speaker 1: We are in the middle of AGM season, Sean, and with that comes upgraded forecasts for revenue and profit. At CSL's meeting yesterday, the Blood Plasma Group said earnings would be up by about 5% this year, which was in line with expectations, and CSL's share price rose 0.5%.
00:06:58
Speaker 2: Casino Group Star Entertainment's shares rallied 13% after the company reported strong quarterly activities ahead of its AGM and Universal Store Holdings provided an update for the first 17 weeks of this financial year. Direct customer sales jumped 9%, thanks in large part to women's fashion label Perfect Stranger, not one I've heard of, let alone bought from But the point there is Universal Store Holdings very much defying the tough times for many retailers.
00:07:29
Speaker 1: While we're on the topic of retailers, there are reports this morning, Sean, that department store David Jones is on the edge of financial failure.
00:07:39
Speaker 2: So David Jones has been struggling for quite a few months. The Fin Review this morning is reporting that DJ's primary lender, a British investor called Hilco Global... has the right to take control after the retailer breached a covenant. Now, a covenant's basically, what, a legal, legally binding condition on the loan. Hilco told the Finn it remained supportive. So we're not saying it's about to happen. But there's smoke. Less supportive. Brands like Country Road, Witchery, Mimco, they've pulled some of their concessions from David Jones. You look more broadly, my share price is off 58% this year. In the US, Macy's has been closing stores. The parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus, that's fallen into bankruptcy. Really, really difficult time for David Jones and department stores.
00:08:28
Speaker 1: Maybe I'm asking the wrong person because you are quite old fashioned. But when was the last time you went into a department store like David Jones or Meijer?
00:08:39
Speaker 2: I had David Jones for a cup of tea and a bit of lunch, you know. My grandmother always used to take me. If we came to Sydney to visit Sydney and my grandmother was with us, you'd duck in the DJs for lunch. You'd get where your Sunday best. Off you'd go. It was quite spectacular.
00:08:56
Speaker 1: 50 years ago, Sean. Yeah, I know. I can't remember going into Meyer and David Jones all the time. You'd be going in to buy kind of T-shirts and stuff because they just had kind of good, a heap of stuff.
00:09:06
Speaker 2: No, not anymore.
00:09:07
Speaker 1: Just buy it all online.
00:09:09
Speaker 2: It's just, yeah. It's kind of true. Anyway.
00:09:11
Speaker 1: That was a wild ride down memory lane for you, Sean. Back in a moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean, Treasurer Jim Chalmers has unveiled further changes to Labor's capital gains tax reforms, introducing new concessions for investors in innovative startups. The latest legislation establishes an innovative business capital gains tax concession, allowing early investors and eligible startups to retain significant discounts on their future capital gains. The government's also claiming to simplify research and development tax incentives. And from July next year, venture capital tax incentives will be expanded. to encourage investment in young, growing companies.
00:10:03
Speaker 2: The changes form part of a broader $ 3. 8 billion package of tax relief and concessions for businesses and start-ups. While in Canberra, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said duress alarms for MPs along with heightened security for their homes and electorate officers are among the options a fast-tracked inquiry into increased security will consider following last week's attack on independent MP Helen Haynes. Meanwhile, complaints to the tax office watchdog have soared 74% over the past year as workers and small businesses struggle with the ATO's crackdown on outstanding tax bills and penalties.
00:10:41
Speaker 1: I mentioned this one at the top of the show. Dementia now accounts for more than 10% More than 10%.
00:10:48
Speaker 2: Of all deaths.
00:10:49
Speaker 1: That's double the level of 20 years ago. Figures from the Bureau of Stats show that dementia, including Alzheimer's disease, claimed just over 19,000 lives in 2025. Women accounted for 61% of dementia deaths, with the condition remaining their leading cause of death now for the 10th consecutive year. And that is really because women tend to live longer than men.
00:11:15
Speaker 2: Yes. Despite the increase, Australia's overall mortality rates are returning to their long-term downward trend following the pandemic. The male mortality rate reached a record low, while the female rate was the second lowest on record. What's interesting, obviously people are living longer, and most dementia-related deaths occur when people are in their 80s or 90s, so you would expect that to be growing. But there's other reasons for it as well. So there's been a decline in fatality rates in other killer diseases. So strokes heart disease we can treat it a lot better so as a result people don't die from those sorts of diseases anywhere near as much as they used to also doctors are just much better at diagnosing dementia too so that has boosted the numbers there all right.
00:12:01
Speaker 1: Now south australia has been named the best state in australia to do business for the fourth consecutive year While Victoria has again finished last, the Business Council of Australia's annual regulation rumble rankings assess states and territories on taxes, planning systems, licensing requirements, and other business regulations. It really does make kind of regulations sexy.
00:12:27
Speaker 2: Rumbling. Yeah. Yeah. Do you think the people at the BCA, and we love Brian Black. He's a listener. Yeah. I'm a big fan of Brian Black. Do you think they all got together and said, how are we going to sex up this particular ranking? Let's call it a regulation rumble. Oh, 100%. 100%.
00:12:43
Speaker 1: You've got us talking about it.
00:12:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, totally. I mean, we're talking about payroll tax settings here, right? And licensing. Make that sexy. Oh, boy.
00:12:53
Speaker 1: It's getting hot in here, Sean.
00:12:55
Speaker 2: Those two issues, South Australia led. Tasmania topped rankings for planning. Settle down, Michael. Settle. Victoria finished last overall overall. also slipping to last place on planning, with major reforms not due to take effect until October next year. New South Wales was only just above Victoria, thanks to some improvements in its planning rules. We're loving it. The aforementioned Brian Black, the chief executive of the Business Council, says excessive red tape is costing businesses time and money, ultimately pushing up prices for consumers. In fact, he used this example. He said it's extraordinary opening a cafe online requires navigating 34 separate licences, approvals or processes in Victoria, 36 in Tasmania. That is crazy.
00:13:44
Speaker 1: And that's just to open the business, let alone all the pressures that are then on you as a small business owner actually running the business once you've got it.
00:13:52
Speaker 2: Wow.
00:13:53
Speaker 1: The nation's sheep flock, Sean, has fallen to its... Ah, Sean?
00:13:58
Speaker 2: Sheep flock?
00:13:59
Speaker 1: Oh, God, that's... This is writing itself.
00:14:02
Speaker 2: This material. Oh, I've lived with this name for a long time, yeah.
00:14:06
Speaker 1: It has fallen to its lowest level in 100 years just as demand for sheep and lamb prices hit record highs and wool prices moved back to levels not seen now since pre-COVID. New research from Rabobank says the national flock has fallen to around 66 million sheep. Which sounds like a lot, doesn't it? But it is down from a peak of 180 million in 1970. You couldn't turn a corner without tripping over a sheep back in the seventies. Despite strong global demand for Australian sheep meat and wool. Farmers are reluctant to rebuild their flocks because of high costs, because of labour shortages, and also seasonal uncertainty weighs on it too.
00:14:51
Speaker 2: Rabobank expects sheep numbers to remain relatively stable over the next five years, meaning production growth will depend increasingly on better breeding, technology, farm management, those sorts of things. Productivity, dare I say, per sheep, more output per sheep. The good news for producers is that global sheep meat consumption is is forecast to grow by almost 2% annually through to 2030. I mean, it's kind of a silver lining because we're not actually growing the flock, but the actual prices are better. That's what Rubber Bank thinks. It thinks land prices will remain strong. And if we're not going to grow our flock and there's more demand, they're likely to be correct.
00:15:32
Speaker 1: Just so intrigued by the concept of more output per sheep.
00:15:36
Speaker 2: I suppose it makes.
00:15:39
Speaker 1: Sense, doesn't it? Turning to international news now, Sean, Microsoft will offer buyout packages to up to 60,000 staff as the tech giant tries to keep costs under control and pare its workforce back as it spends hundreds of billions of dollars on AI. Employees in the US, Canada, UK and India who work in certain divisions and are at the vice president level or below will be eligible to apply for severance packages, according to the FT.
00:16:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's very widespread. So Xbox, Windows, co-pilot AI, chatbot products, all among divisions included in the program. Microsoft, like its big tech rivals, has been spending hundreds of billions of dollars on AI, developing its own frontier-level models and constructing or leasing dozens of new data centers every quarter to meet demand. So it's trying to find cost savings, and this is how it's doing. The new voluntary exit offer comes after Microsoft made a voluntary retirement program available to older, longer-serving staff in July.
00:16:41
Speaker 1: We mentioned a few times throughout the show the pressures that businesses are under at the moment, Sean. Perfect timing for today's Fear and Greed Q & A interview. We're speaking today with NAB's Andrew Orbach, who this is what he does. He speaks to small businesses. He spends his life travelling. He travels around the country speaking to businesses. And we talk about what's separating successful businesses from those struggling and growing pressures on cash flow.
00:17:09
Speaker 2: The latest National Australia Bank business survey paints such a gloomy picture. And we talked to him about why that's the case. It's fantastic, Chad. Yeah, indeed.
00:17:18
Speaker 1: It's coming up next in the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at fearandgreed.com.au, which is really the place to sign up for the free daily newsletter as well. Also, there's a link in the show notes if you just want to take the shortcut. Thanks, Sean.
00:17:33
Speaker 2: Thanks, Michael.
00:17:33
Speaker 1: It's Wednesday, the 28th of October, 2026. Make sure you are following the podcast and join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.
