00:00:01
Speaker 1: What's up friends and welcome into betting pros. This is the week four prop show. I'm Chris Welsh. I've got Andrew Erickson, the undertaker, and that's going to mean something in this episode. We are going to be going through our top 10 props for week four. We've got five each. We're going to do some touchdown calls. We've got first touchdowns and we got a whole bunch of fun to go through. And that fun, Mr. Andrew Erickson actually does start with our big board because last week, keeping our accountability buddies all happy. We were both 3-2, so we had another 500 week. The only week that's, I mean, you've been 500 all three weeks, so shout out to you. Would you like to give a little speech? All three weeks of over 500, you're kind of amazing right now. Speech, speech, speech, speech.
00:00:45
Speaker 2: I mean, I would have been 4-1 if Chase Brown hadn't let me down. A couple yards short of hitting his rushing yards prop, but hey, in the green, giving out good plays. We both hit touchdowns last week, which is a big hit, 2-0. Mm-hmm. I guess two and two because we give two touchdown bets. But the fact that both our tight ends end up scoring, find the end zone. That was a big W. Yeah.
00:01:07
Speaker 1: So when we look at the big board for last week, we were both three and two. You said we both had a touchdown. You had a big positive EV because I believe it was the Kinnage-Sadiq. So you were like plus ROI. You had like you were like plus three units, I guess, on that. Technically, I was a little over, you know, a little over on the positive. But either way, I got my first touchdown call. You got the touchdown call, both 3-2. So when we go and take a look at the yearly board, you are now 10-5. Very impressive. Very hot start. At least I'm over 500. I am now 8-7 after my poorish week 1. Two straight weeks, though, of being over 500. So you're 10-5. I'm 8-7. You have two touchdown calls correct. I have one. You've got a positive return from a unit perspective on your touchdowns. I am still in the negative zone. Gotta get there. And we have zero first touchdown calls. Correct? But we will... Boy, if we hit ours this week, just wait to the setup that we're going to give you guys. That's the big setup for the big board. But we have a couple other... Well, we have one other big board. Or the graphic that we have is... The Jameer Gibbs rollover touchdown continues. Three straight weeks. Erickson said... You can make money off of big, juiced up touchdown calls. And like in years past that one, whatever it was, a Christian McCaffrey, you know, it was like 15 straight weeks. You could have been a billionaire if you would have done it. That's your game into here. So talk to us through, I don't really remember where we're, where are we at from a unit perspective going into week four of Jameer Gibbs betting?
00:02:40
Speaker 2: Full disclosure, my unit size is not big enough for me to become a billionaire. Whether Jameer Gibbs scores touchdowns for 30 consecutive weeks, But I think now we're at to a point where it's two and a half units. I believe now that we're betting on Jameer Gibbs to score the anytime touchdown, just based on the winnings, rolling that over every single week. And again, good matchup this week against the Carolina Panthers. So yeah, another week of Jameer Gibbs. And hey, if it doesn't happen in the first half, goes in that Sunday night football game, it'd be a sweaty second half, maybe a late fourth quarter touchdown. But I'm expecting another touchdown performance from Jameer Gibbs.
00:03:17
Speaker 1: And I think it's like, I think it's like minus 220. So you're probably going to be looking at, well, I don't remember what you just said, two and a half units. So you'll probably be up like maybe close to four if this rolls over and we go into week five. But now we're starting to cook a little bit. So the Jameer Gibbs rollover continues. It's very exciting. The other one, I don't even know if we have a graphic for it because we didn't need it. But The Welsh undefeated unders has ended, so now I'm obliged to never bet an under again. I was 1-1 on my unders. I put two unders on my card. The one blew past it, so I refuse to do an under this week out of solidarity for unders being lame. You are going to do the exact opposite here into the show, but we've got 10 bangers for you. Hopefully you guys are going to be tracking along with us. Make sure you guys download the betting pros app where you can track all of your bets. You can get all the data. You can see the five star bets that we talk about. You can see what betting pros, you can use the analyzer or the cheat sheet to help you out. All the tools that we make as a part of our whole system here, you can do the same. So download the betting pros app. Let's jump into this. Now that we got all that stuff out of the way, it's a fresh week. We got to be big and positive. We got touchdown calls first. I'm actually like super excited to do the first touchdown calls. But we also have a few returners to the prop bets here. I'm going to have one. You have got one that actually failed you. And there may be a trend of one person going heavy overs and one person going heavy unders. But for you, that's not going to change, at least in this first one. So Erickson, this is a squad ride one. I completely agree with you on this one. Love this play. Your first prop for week four. Hit us with it.
00:04:57
Speaker 2: Josh Downs over 62 and a half receiving yards. We are headed to London because I like starting my Sunday with the big W. So we're going to get some action in on this commanders Colts game in the early window. You're going to be up really early to watch Josh Downs dominate this defense. Welsh 630 a.m. Eastern time or is it 730 Eastern time because of the time zone differences with daylight savings? What time is it actually going to be? When the Colts game kicks off.
00:05:24
Speaker 1: Well, you give me the Eastern time. What is the Eastern time of the year?
00:05:28
Speaker 2: 9.30 Eastern.
00:05:29
Speaker 1: 9.30 Eastern. Wow. Somehow you got all of it wrong. I don't even know how you did that. 6.30. It will be 6.30 my time Pacific. Yeah.
00:05:36
Speaker 2: So you'll be up sweating the Josh Downs prop alongside me.
00:05:41
Speaker 1: I won't, but yeah.
00:05:43
Speaker 2: Okay, then you're going to wake up.
00:05:44
Speaker 1: I'm going to wake up to money. That's what I'll do. I'll wake up to money. You're going to wake.
00:05:47
Speaker 2: Up to money to Josh Stout's because his commander's defense is so horrible at covering basically everybody that catches the ball. They have allowed a league high 46.7 fantasy points per game to receivers. The fourth highest pass rate to quarterbacks targeting the slot so far this season. And that's where Josh Stout does the majority of his damage. 68% of his routes are run out of the slot. That is the fifth highest mark among qualified wide receivers. So it's a good matchup and it just comes to him facing up in this commander's defense and his role in the Colts offense has changed. He is no longer just being pigeonholed into, okay, you're only playing in 11 personnel. He is a full-time player in the Colts offense running the most routes on the team. The last two weeks, he's averaged a team high 2.4 yards per route run, on nearly a 33% target share while the team has not had Alec Pierce, who's been out with an injury, 20 targets over the last two weeks, five passes for at least 70 yards in each contest. So the fact that you're getting this number below 70 yards, he's been over this in two straight weeks and the matchup is oh so juicy. I think Josh Downs is going to have another big statement game here. The fact that he's being used more downfield, Josh Downs is usually a player. I think in years past, we would have had this conversation Welsh about, okay, Are we doing the receptions? Are we doing the receiving yards with Josh Downs? And more or less, he's always been a guy that, okay, we want to attack the volume with him because he's using used more underneath. But because his air yard share is actually now top 12 in the NFL, 114 incomplete air yards last year, he's actually seeing more downfield stuff. So I actually like and feel confident about the yardage, especially with his receiving prop or the receptions prop, like we talked about earlier, is really juiced towards the over, especially at five and a half. So I like the yardage here and he's going to go over.
00:07:33
Speaker 1: You actually make a very compelling case to play the other side of what my prop is going to be. And I'll tell you here in a second. But what did I say the first two weeks? If you give me four and a half on Parker Washington, I'm taking the over. Then they did give me four and a half the next week. And I was just like, nay, sir, because it's too juiced. We are now in a spot where I am going to open up the market to five and a half on Parker Washington because we are goat status. And This is going to be plus money, so I am jumping in. I'm jumping back. Technically, I'm 2-0 on Parker Washington bets. We are going to go for a 3-0. I'm back on Parker Washington, and we are playing. It's not necessarily the outline. It's the 5.5 over, and it's plus money. A couple different spots, there's a little bit over, or I've even seen plus 119 to 120 on Parker Washington. The thing that makes it interesting is what you said. Parker Washington actually is fourth in the NFL in air yard share. 46%. So that would actually be a play. It's pushed up a little bit around the 70-ish marker. So that actually kind of interests me in the ever going battle of receptions versus receiving yards. But in this case, like Parker Washington has been the guy. And now the Bengals secondary has been solid from an overall perspective. But if you look at PFF ratings out for this week, number two overall matchup for Parker Washington, graded out obviously because he is so high. But one of the things to focus on It's not DJ Turner. It's DJ Ivy and Dax Hill, the corners that he might be lined up against, especially specifically when he gets into the slot. DJ Turner will stay on the outsides a bit more. DJ Ivy does not even qualify, is unranked. And you're looking at Dax Hill, the other corner that's like 90 of 100 overall corners. So they're going to move. We know that Parker Washington is going to move throughout the offense. They're going to get him on the inside. And they're going to sling him the ball. His target share has been up there. I believe it's closed in on around 39% as I'm looking here. 28.4% overall target share for the team with a 32.8% first read share. So we just go through this. He is the guy. He is the top guy. And him playing out of the slot more. I know Jacoby Myers is going to force into some of that. I think this game is going to be slinging the ball. and Parker Washington is getting the targets per game. We're closing in on eight. These are going to be some catchable balls. It's a favorable matchup. Give me 5.5 on the receptions over, but you do have me a little bit interested talking about the air yard share and thinking about that. That is maybe a pivot play that you guys could take a look at if you want. And by the way, you can go and play these out with the NFL prop cheat sheet. Find the best NFL player props with betting pros prop bet cheat sheet. Quickly compare lines from leading sports books against our daily NFL projections. Don't cover the props offering the most value. Make smarter prop betting decisions all season long at bettingpros.com slash props. Go and play through, get your best bets in there, and let betting pros help you out. All right, let's go to number two on the props here. Will we start to get the unders, Mr. Undertaker?
00:10:40
Speaker 2: So I'm actually going to the Bengals-Jaguars game, Chase Brown. He failed me last week, so clearly now he's dead to me and I'm only betting his unders. Under 16.5 rushing attempts for Chase Brown. This number really stood out to me when I was perusing through the betting pros prop bet cheat sheet because this number is a ludicrously high for a player like Chase Brown. And I'm one of the biggest Chase Brown fans. We're talking about him as a buy low across the board in fantasy pros. But this number is just way too big for him in this particular matchup. The projections have Chase Brown at 14.9 carries. He's only going over this number one time in three games played this season. And that was against the Houston Texans. But dating back to last year, he's gone over this number just five times in 20 games played. That is a 20% hit rate towards the over, or as I like to look at it, an 80% hit rate towards the under, which is why we're playing this as one of my best bets this week. You look at the running backs so far this season that have faced the Jaguars, no running back they have faced has surpassed 12 carries. And a little trivia for you, Welsh. How many times do you think a running back had at least 17 carries against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the entire 2025 season? How many running backs and who do you think they were?
00:12:00
Speaker 1: Oh, well, I mean, how you're setting me up, it's got to be like two. And I don't know.
00:12:08
Speaker 2: You're right. It is two. Two very, very good running backs. James Cook, McCaffrey. No, James Cook is not either of them. It was McCaffrey. And Jonathan Taylor did it twice against them. But those guys are just different offenses, 90% snap share players. As much as I love Chase Brown, he's not in that category. He's not a 90% snap share type of player. He does cede some type of work to Samadji Pirine at times. So even last year in this same matchup where, to your point about Parker Washington, he did have a monster game last year against the Bengals. even before he had his like full-fledged breakout. Last year against the Jaguars, Chase Brown topped out at 16 carries. But the big difference from that game versus this game is Joe Burrow got hurt in that game. They had Jake Browning for the majority of that game, which is why they leaned on Chase Brown so much. So I think that's kind of playing into why his number here is so high. And the fact that he did do it one time already against the Houston Texans, but that was in a game where the Bengals could really play ball control and just try to play defense because the Texans offense could not move the football. their defense. So I just think that this number is totally wrong for a player like Chase Brown in a game where you could see the Bengals have a negative game script, like the Jaguars. This is going to be a close game. The spread is really tight. It's a high scoring affair. And I think that Chase Brown, yeah, he'll see volume and see touches, but I think his total volume will actually be a combination of rushing attempts and targets receptions out of the backfield versus just straight up carries. So this one, I really like a lot. The prop bet cheat sheet agrees under 16 and a half carries for Chase Brown.
00:13:44
Speaker 1: And we Okay, I'm down with this one. This one's a slick one. I'm going to play the rushing yards, but we are going to go to the quarterback, and we're going to play an over, and I'm finally going to dip my toe in the Malik Willis pool. That is somebody that, you know, wanted to try to dive into, wanted to see more rushing yards. Last week, that started to click. He was able to drop 56, you know, in a spot where he didn't really rush a whole bunch prior to that. I mean, 49ers, it wasn't a big one. But I mean, I guess against the Raiders, he had also passed this number. But what we're looking at is a consensus line of around 28.5. Projections are kind of all over the board. BP isn't, like, in love with that one. PFF has Malik Willis as the number one rushing yards quarterback so far for this week.
00:14:31
Speaker 2: And.
00:14:31
Speaker 1: Taking a look at the Vikings and what they've done, they have given up this number. Two of the three outings they have not, but one of those was a five carry 42 yard output from Caleb Williams. They're averaging around almost six and a half yards given up per rush to quarterbacks. And Malik Willis is projected at the minimum of six. So I think the number establishes out well. And another thing, if you go and look at grades here, the Vikings are a poor passing matchup for Malik Willis. coverage on the tight ends is one of the better ones. Wide receiver coverage is pretty solid. It's a slightly above average. I mean, defensive line rush there. We know they're going to just blitz the crap out of him. And they're also without Devon HN. They're without their number one weapon. I'm not sure that they're going to be comfortable with Jalen Wright or Ali Gordon being in a spot to take over that massive check down receiving spot. So I think this is a situation more where Malik Willis is going to be running. And running a lot. And I'm not playing rush attempts. I'm playing yards. And I think he can bust this one out. Over six yards per carry to quarterback so far against the Vikings. And Malik Willis going over 50. I think we're going to have another run of this. And to be honest with you, I'm not sure we're going to see Malik Willis under 35 yards rushing moving forward. So I think this is the top dog. This is a low number. 28.5 over rushing yards for Malik Willis this week. That's my number two. And I very, very much like that one. All right, let's go to our third. This is number five overall. We've both dropped two. This is gonna be our third props for this bad boy. Erickson, why don't you kick us off? You're gonna be jumping in. We love our tight ends. We love to bet our tight ends for touchdowns. We try to get them into the props and you are digging deep, my friend. Talk to us about Dr. Strange.
00:16:14
Speaker 2: Continuing to attack this Bengals-Jaguars game. That was my one thing to watch on the tailgate. This week, because this game is going to be really, really exciting, except for Chase Brown and his rushing attempts. Other than that, it's all overs across the board, including Bretton Strange, the tight end for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Now, he has been under this number at 33 and a half receiving yards all three games this season. But similar to the bet that we made a couple of weeks back on Rashad Bateman, it's just, hey, don't look at the box score. We're going to be forecasting this future matchup for Bretton Strange where better days are ahead for him. And we look at this Bengals defense. they continuously bleed yardage to tight ends. So far this season, they've allowed nearly 100 receiving yards per game to tight ends. That's second most in the NFL. Now, a lot of it did come in garbage time against Dalton Schultz back when they played the Houston Texans. But even before that late production for Schultz, they still had given up a decent amount of yardage. And the fact that this number is so low for a player like Brenton Strange, who over the last two weeks has run around on 82% of Trevor Lawrence's dropbacks, He's heavily involved in this offense. He plays almost every single snap offensively. The matchup is there and he's actually coming off his best game of the season where he did have three catches for over 30 yards and five targets. So it's continuing to trend upwards. Brenton Strange and he has been receiving some positive coach speak this week talking about how yeah we still want to get Brenton Strange more involved last week they were talking about Jacoby Myers getting more involved and what happened Jacoby Myers had his best game of the season so I'm expecting that same type of pattern here with Brenton Strange having his best game of the season and a very favorable matchup because that's how you attack this Bengals defense over the middle of the field with guys like Parker Washington and guys like Brenton Strange so the fact that the Jaguars are going to be pushed for the first time all season this week And it's not going to be a blowout or a game against the Denver Broncos, a tough defense. You're going to see fireworks and Brent Strange is going to get over this really low number.
00:18:10
Speaker 1: OK, I like it. I am going to be jumping to one of your guys. I think you had made a bet on him last week or maybe the second week. Give me some Matt Collins, man. Matt Collins. I love what he looks like in this offense right now, especially when they decide to throw him the ball. Not that I like anything about the Patriots offense in general, but I am a psychopath and I'm a sicko. And I still disgustingly believe that there's an opportunity for Drake May to bounce back.
00:18:39
Speaker 2: But.
00:18:40
Speaker 1: I also don't have the cojones to put a bet in on Drake May this week. So I'm finding another direction to kind of be invested. And that's in Matt Collins. And, you know, Matt Collins last week had that big banger. Six catches, yards were there. Projections so far on BP, they're pseudo supportive of where I'm going. And that is the receptions. I've definitely kind of honed in on the reception market a little bit early on because it's 3.5. It's a low number right now. And there is some juice, but you can find this even under minus 120 in some spots. I think that's enough to jump in in this spot. When looking at the last previous matchups, they've actually gotten hit, the Bills have, on some of these outside receivers, guys that can move around. There has been at least a receiver in every single game versus them that has obviously hit over this mark. with a couple spots this happening twice, but Nico Collins had seven catches, Amonra nine, Trey Harris, not Ladd-McConkie, was your big receiving marker, and if I do believe they're going to be competitive, and Drake Mays got a pretty heavy, if we're being honest, a pretty heavy passing total, passing yards total for where he's been at, Then I think I want to be invested in Matt Collins here, who last week had a 33% air yard share, was running around 65% of routes, 11 ADOT, a 29% target share, which I love. And his, where did I just lose it? I wanted to give you his first read, a 30% first read share. So if you're going to be attacking these guys, which by the way, here's some corner grades. Christian Benford, 95 of 100. D. Alford, 96 of 100. And Maxwell Harrison, outside the top 50 of 100 in corners. You're going to be able to pass on them. They're probably playing from behind. Matt Collins has kind of been the number one guy or the possession guy. And I only need four receptions on this. I might even play around and put this to five, but that's going to be mine. 3.5% Because I got a record to uphold here. 3.5 receptions on the over. All right, we've got two more coming up across the board here. So strap in because you're going to get your unders in. But I want to tell you guys first about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's a stock exchange for sports, buying in and selling out on your terms. When your team goes down to 20%, you can buy in and sell it off at 40% when they come back to double your money. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And they've got this great new feature called Squads. It's a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. Download the Polymarket app today and use code FPPOD when you sign up. That's code FPPOD to get $ 20 free after your deposit of just $ 10. All right, props number four. Both of us gonna get in the mud here a little bit. So get money with us here and not just take a Dolphin, which I did earlier, not just take a low total, but now drop an under on it, Erickson. Do it.
00:21:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, something smells fishy with these Dolphins running backs filling in for Devon Achan. So I'm gonna go with Jalen Wright under 29 and a half rushing yards. And the Dolphins backfield has been a highly discussed debate. I think this week with the injury to HN fantasy managers trying to figure out, okay, which guy am I going to go to? Who's going to get the volume? And does it even matter because they're facing the Brian Flores, Minnesota Vikings defense, right? Does it actually even matter which one of these guys gets the volume? Because Welsh, I looked at the markets today with these two running backs. I was really interested in playing an under on either Ollie Gordon or Jalen Wright. And It was actually kind of surprising to me that Jalen Wright actually has the higher numbers than Ollie Gordon does in the props.
00:22:35
Speaker 1: Well, he's first on the depth chart. I think that's why.
00:22:39
Speaker 2: And that's it? The unofficial depth chart that the PR guy puts together, not the head coach. Like, that's to me, I think, just kind of interesting. So the only reason I'm only playing Jalen Wright instead of Ollie Gordon is just he has larger numbers. Whereas... all the information that's been told to us is that it's going to be a full-blown committee in some way, shape, or form, and everybody's going to have a different role. So that's what Dolphins head coach Jeff Hathaway said, that very adamant that he was going to use all of his guys to fill the void left by his star running back Devon Achan. Now, what does that actually mean and translate to the field? Like, we don't know. So with all this ambiguity, I'm just pounding the under for these Dolphins running backs. And Wright has the highest number at 29 and a half. He also has the highest carry total at eight and a half rushing attempts. So I'm not confident that he's necessarily going to see that type of volume because it could be a committee. Ollie Gordon showed up last week, played very well, and got a ton of work. Jalen Wright's also coming off an injury. Foot, stinger, how effective is he actually going to be and how much volume is he actually going to get? So I'm kind of fading the confidence that at least the market is showing a little bit in Jalen Wright by taking his under. And then going back to the matchup, it's absolutely terrifying. Vikings allowing the fourth fewest rushing yards per game this season. They've allowed the lowest EPA per rush this season. Also, Dolphins All-Pro center Aaron Brewer popped up an injury report on Thursday with a hand injury. So if he can't go or he's not 100%, there's going to be no push up front for the Miami Dolphins playing on the road in Minnesota against this Brian Flores defense. I'm taking the under. I think this is a good process play. And if it beats me, so be it. But one of these Dolphins running backs is going to underwhelm dramatically. And just given the fact that the right number is a little bit bigger, that's where I'm going to go. And you know what?
00:24:27
Speaker 1: It's kind of a correlative play to my Malik Willis over rushing yards as well. That if you wanted to, you know, put some, we have the same game, we have the parlay wizard, same game parlay wizard, where that would be a correlative play to the over on Malik Willis and the under on Jalen Wright that you could put together. So I like where you're going. I am going to be taking a low number, but I told you I'm off. I'm off of unders for this week, even because lost one and it broke my heart. Three and one. So we're going overs. But this is a low total for stinky players so far this year. But this is a get-right spot, and it's Colson Loveland. Colson Loveland has a very low, rightfully so, receiving yard total of 33.5 this week. Every projection market likes the over. BP likes the over at around 38. Fantasy pros, if you want to look on the fantasy side of the different algorithm, around 41. One of the biggest ones. Obviously, I say PFF. I appreciate what they do. 55 is their marker, and hopefully that is barred out to where he's been. But one of the things– like Loveland last week doesn't jump out from like a target percentage. He was actually only targeted 11 percent of the time. First read percentage wasn't up there. I think if Bajan's in, Bajan's going to help this situation. But– Here's a marker that helped push me in it. Besides every projection like in it, besides BP giving this a positive grade, a positive EV market, projection EVs around 9% total on it. But when you go and look at cornerback grades on the wide receivers, because I actually started this off with a Luther Burden, but check these out. You've got three corners. Graded in the top 35 in the NFL. And you've got one who's a top 10 in Travis Brownlee. Thomas and Stevens both inside the top 35. So there's a shutdown on Adunze and on Burden. And this is a favorable matchup. Bottom third against tight ends. Two of the three games that they've played, the Tucker Craft stuff just went out. But against the Lions and the Titans, tight ends have each caught in five passes. They're averaging four catches to tight ends overall. And the yardage total is going over this with last week having 51 plus yards to tight end. So all of that to be said, Beijing a little bit more efficient. They get the ball in the air. They're trying to get Loveland more involved. Super low total. 33.5. Give me the over on Colson Loveland. It's dirty. It's nasty. But we're going to get back there. And we are going to end this bad boy off with some quarterback props. These are our final for the week here. We both got a quarterback that we're going to be playing. So Erickson. Will you go over 50% on unders? You got two overs, two unders. Where are we going?
00:27:10
Speaker 2: We're going back to the unders here. And this one kind of pains me because it involves the Detroit Lions, which I usually never will bet an under. But this game, the Lions and Panthers, is not being played at Ford Field, the chorus field of the NFL. It's being played in Carolina, where the forecast is actually calling for some potential rain, which... I really don't doesn't actually happen because that would just ruin a lot because we know this Lions team just acts totally different. Jared Goff's indoor cat. That being said, I still think even in pristine conditions, there's a chance he goes under this passing attempt number, which is listed at 34 and a half passing attempts. Five star bet on the prop bet cheat sheet this week. Jared Goff has gone under this number three games as a road favorite. He's been under this number in five of his last 10 road games. Carolina has faced the sixth lowest pass rate this season. To me, this is a matchup where you don't put Jared Goff out there in the elements and you just feed him your Gibbs. Like that seems like it'd be the perfect game plan against this terrible Panthers run defense. That's how teams have attacked Carolina so far this year. Three quarterbacks they faced. Nobody has attempted more than 30 pass attempts against them. So the projection is leaning hard into the under. And if there is a chance where the rain is legit, then there's no way that the Lions are going to feel comfortable dropping back to throw with Jared Goff 34 and a half times because that's just not his strength, especially in outdoor conditions. So I'm taking the under here. And I think this is probably one of my favorite plays as well.
00:28:35
Speaker 1: I like it. This one I kind of dove into too. I don't think I've done a passing touchdown marker this week or this year so far. But this one I love and I am going to, Jordan, love. The team that has no running game whatsoever. Going up against Buccaneers, team that is messy. It's a messy defense. It's a messy offense with Jalen Daniels out there. And there's one thing that Jordan Love does this year, or at least the Packers do. Throw touchdowns. He's had two touchdowns in every single game he's played so far this year. And that is the marker. And by the way, I believe, unless I just fooled myself out of it, it's plus money. Right around even on, but I'm seeing some plus money on 1.5 over on the touchdowns. And that's where I'm going to be rocking this. Buccaneers they only have one game where they've given up over two touchdowns but I think you have an extra messy situation that's going on so far they don't cover tight ends well they're not covering running backs well wide receivers is a little better play but there isn't much of a pass rush that's happening whatsoever so this team isn't going to run we just know they're going to pass get Tucker Kraft involved I desperately was thinking about doing my Christian Watson first touchdown play. Golden has stepped up. This is just a phenomenal situation, and the Buccaneers might be turning the ball over multiple times. This might hit in the first half. 1.5 over touchdowns for Jordan Love. That is my final prop. Those are 10 props that we have locked into, but we ain't done yet. We are going to get to some touchdowns here. We both hit a touchdown last week. If you guys want to get in on the action, go to bettingpros.com slash touchdown. You can check out the touchdown score report. Looking for an edge in touchdown bets? Our touchdown score report compares anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify the best anytime bets. Head to bettingpros.com slash touchdown for the latest touchdown prop analysis today.
00:30:24
Speaker 2: Mr.
00:30:24
Speaker 1: Andrew Erickson. Let's talk some touchdowns here. You are in the green. You have hit, I think, two of three weeks at least. You've got a couple touchdown calls here. So where are you going this week?
00:30:38
Speaker 2: Wherever the Lions are going is where I'm going to attack because that has worked for my process. Juwan Johnson, week one. Who do you play? Detroit Lions. Score a touchdown. Week three, Kenyon Sadiq. Scored a touchdown. Who did he play, Welsh?
00:30:51
Speaker 1: Oh, yeah.
00:30:52
Speaker 2: The Detroit Lions. So that's the process, man. That's how you hit on touchdown bets is you pick the players that are facing the Detroit Lions. So I have a twofer here today. I have two Carolina Panthers in my anytime touchdown bet calls. Teterola McMillan is going to score a touchdown this week against the Carolina Panthers. Or excuse me, against the Detroit Lions. He plays for the Carolina Panthers. TMAC has seen the most red zone targets and end zone targets this season. among wide receivers without a touchdown yet. So he got shut down last week against the Cleveland Browns, but that will not be the case, especially with Jalen Coker banged up. He's going to be the focal point of this passing attack against a really bad line secondary. So I think he finds the end zone or have opportunities to find the end zone. And then the same kind of spiel with Darren Waller, just specifically how bad the lines have been against tight ends. They've allowed six receiving touchdowns to tight ends in three games. Six different tight ends have caught a touchdown in against the Detroit Lions, and Darren Waller will be the seventh. So those are my anytime touchdown bets. Attack these Lions.
00:31:53
Speaker 1: I love it.
00:31:54
Speaker 2: All right.
00:31:54
Speaker 1: What does five touchdowns do for you? Well, that number is the amount of touchdowns that the commanders have given up to tight ends this season. Five touchdowns is a ridiculous marker. Two touchdowns against the Eagles to tight ends, two to the Cowboys, and last week, one. So obviously that would be the math. I was thinking it was A.J. Barner, but it was Sherbert. Five touchdowns given up. Every single week, there's been a touchdown given up. So how about Tyler Warren with a plus 160 this week for an anytime touchdown? They're not afraid to even use him on a little handoff and short yardage, but this is a massive, massive advantage. We've also talked about Josh Downs. I mean, I think that's also a play that you can jump into, but tight ends are a huge crutch. Really, anything on the inside, it seems Josh Downs is going to be beneficial, but I think this is going to be a really good spot for Tyler Warren. So plus 160 is mine. And then I've got the biggest anytime play here. I'm going to go to our boy Drake May. Told you I think he's going to get right. I guess I did find my way to be invested in him. He actually had two rushing touchdowns last year versus the Bills. We've seen this play from Drake May before where he starts to run. He doesn't have a rushing touchdown so far on the season. I do think they can pass some, but when they get into short yardage, they're desperate. He's desperate. He's talking about the shoulder. It's not the shoulder. Well, guess what? Put your shoulder down. Bring it into the end zone. Five to one plus 500 for Drake May on something that he has done against this Bills team before. And I believe this would be the first rushing touchdown to buy a quarterback against for the Bills as well. So plus 500 is my play for that.
00:33:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love that call. And this is something that I've kind of been tracking where every week you see guys get touchdowns, but then they could call back on penalty. So Drake may have a rushing touchdown last week, but it all got back on a penalty. And there have been times this season where guys one week, Darren Waller in week two, or excuse me, in week one, how to touchdown was called back on a penalty. What did he do the next week? Scored a touchdown. Cooper Cup in week one against the Patriots. How to touchdown was called back. Cooper Cup last week scored a touchdown. Like the coaches remember when these plays work. And then they go back to it the following week. So I think that this is a really sharp play, especially at 5-1. I'm going to be watching that game very closely, and I think I'm going to be tailing this one.
00:34:12
Speaker 1: I know, I know you will. Of course you will be. You'll be locked in. All right, our final one. We've been having a ton of fun. Oh, we haven't been cashing it, but there's big odds for a reason here. Our first touchdown, Pets, this week. No joke. Not accidental, by the way. We have both gone 65-1. This sets you up for the year. I got to tell you, there were two I was looking at. I was looking at Christian Watson again, because all he does is catch first touchdowns. It's seven and a half to one for him to do that right now, though.
00:34:43
Speaker 2: Wow.
00:34:43
Speaker 1: Trey McBride is another one that I thought was really interesting. I almost did any time touchdown, but I was too tempted as you were. So we are complete psychopath mode. 65 to one are both of our first touchdown plays. So please talk to us about your player and give us the pronunciations.
00:35:03
Speaker 2: I'm going with Nate Borkature for the Jacksonville Jaguars tight end, rookie tight end at 65 to one to catch the first touchdown. In the past, when I've been able to hit on some of these bigger long shot bets, it's always been, I find a game that's high scoring and you pick a random tight end on one of the teams.
00:35:23
Speaker 1: The guy that has five syllables in the name. Gotcha.
00:35:27
Speaker 2: Preferably. The longer, the better is actually what we're the approach here. So I will say, Positive coach beat for Porkature. And last week, he had one target, and it was inside the 10-yard line.
00:35:42
Speaker 1: Oh, okay.
00:35:43
Speaker 2: So it was close. He did not catch the ball, but he was out there in goal line opportunities. So if the Jaguars strike first against Cincinnati Bengals, I assume that they're going to try to come out aggressive because they know the firepower that's on the other side with Joe Burrow and company. I think that if it's not Brenton Strange scoring the first touchdown... It could be Borkature. So at 65-1, again, Patriots, Bills, Jaguars, Bengals, those are my two games I'm going to be locked and loaded in the 1 o'clock slate. And I know, Welsh, you're going back to the 49ers after, I mean, the Kyle Juszczyk play should have hit in some way, shape, or form. I couldn't believe it didn't hit, but You're not going to be swayed to go away from your Niners.
00:36:25
Speaker 1: No, I've got to be honest with you. I almost went back to Juszczyk. This feels like the week they go back to it. I almost did it. But I decided to go. I thought this one was nice and dirty and it's great. If Mike Evans plays awesome, is it likely that he doesn't and or is super limited? Yes. There are no live bodies. They were picking up Brandon Cooks and Dante Pettis. But you know who they do like to put out there? They like to put out Jordan Watkins. Jordan Watkins, I like to play as a three. And if Evans is out, he can kind of play that role. You astutely talked about on, I don't remember if it was tailgate, but how we might see Sertan start to lock down on the middle for a George Kittle. And they might go play action Christian McCaffrey and bam, Mr. Debo doesn't catch passes. He just gets yards. He doesn't get receptions. Jordan Watkins does 65 to one. Jordan Watkins, first touchdown, lock it up. But, you know, it'll be Kyle Juszczyk. Maybe play a little bit on both of those.
00:37:19
Speaker 2: All right.
00:37:19
Speaker 1: There you go. Those are our plays. But what are yours? Your favorite props? Drop them below. You got a first touchdown? Oh, baby. Let's see what those look like. Jump in the comments, interact with the show. Hopefully you guys are enjoying it, having fun and download the betting pros app as well. So not only can you track all of your bets, track your success throughout, track your favorite markets. Betting pros app will also be able to curate based on some of your betting tendencies. It's going to throw you out some suggestions, but there's lots of data to research. It is an amazing tool. We got lots of different systems as well, tracking how there's positive ROI. Go and check it out for yourself. Download the betting pros app. That is going to do it for us, though. For Andrew Erickson, I'm Chris Welsh. Good luck on all your bets for week four. We'll talk to you next time right here on Betting Pros. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.
00:38:08
Speaker 2: If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on X and TikTok at Betting Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also, subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com slash Betting Pros.
Speaker 1: What's up friends and welcome into betting pros. This is the week four prop show. I'm Chris Welsh. I've got Andrew Erickson, the undertaker, and that's going to mean something in this episode. We are going to be going through our top 10 props for week four. We've got five each. We're going to do some touchdown calls. We've got first touchdowns and we got a whole bunch of fun to go through. And that fun, Mr. Andrew Erickson actually does start with our big board because last week, keeping our accountability buddies all happy. We were both 3-2, so we had another 500 week. The only week that's, I mean, you've been 500 all three weeks, so shout out to you. Would you like to give a little speech? All three weeks of over 500, you're kind of amazing right now. Speech, speech, speech, speech.
00:00:45
Speaker 2: I mean, I would have been 4-1 if Chase Brown hadn't let me down. A couple yards short of hitting his rushing yards prop, but hey, in the green, giving out good plays. We both hit touchdowns last week, which is a big hit, 2-0. Mm-hmm. I guess two and two because we give two touchdown bets. But the fact that both our tight ends end up scoring, find the end zone. That was a big W. Yeah.
00:01:07
Speaker 1: So when we look at the big board for last week, we were both three and two. You said we both had a touchdown. You had a big positive EV because I believe it was the Kinnage-Sadiq. So you were like plus ROI. You had like you were like plus three units, I guess, on that. Technically, I was a little over, you know, a little over on the positive. But either way, I got my first touchdown call. You got the touchdown call, both 3-2. So when we go and take a look at the yearly board, you are now 10-5. Very impressive. Very hot start. At least I'm over 500. I am now 8-7 after my poorish week 1. Two straight weeks, though, of being over 500. So you're 10-5. I'm 8-7. You have two touchdown calls correct. I have one. You've got a positive return from a unit perspective on your touchdowns. I am still in the negative zone. Gotta get there. And we have zero first touchdown calls. Correct? But we will... Boy, if we hit ours this week, just wait to the setup that we're going to give you guys. That's the big setup for the big board. But we have a couple other... Well, we have one other big board. Or the graphic that we have is... The Jameer Gibbs rollover touchdown continues. Three straight weeks. Erickson said... You can make money off of big, juiced up touchdown calls. And like in years past that one, whatever it was, a Christian McCaffrey, you know, it was like 15 straight weeks. You could have been a billionaire if you would have done it. That's your game into here. So talk to us through, I don't really remember where we're, where are we at from a unit perspective going into week four of Jameer Gibbs betting?
00:02:40
Speaker 2: Full disclosure, my unit size is not big enough for me to become a billionaire. Whether Jameer Gibbs scores touchdowns for 30 consecutive weeks, But I think now we're at to a point where it's two and a half units. I believe now that we're betting on Jameer Gibbs to score the anytime touchdown, just based on the winnings, rolling that over every single week. And again, good matchup this week against the Carolina Panthers. So yeah, another week of Jameer Gibbs. And hey, if it doesn't happen in the first half, goes in that Sunday night football game, it'd be a sweaty second half, maybe a late fourth quarter touchdown. But I'm expecting another touchdown performance from Jameer Gibbs.
00:03:17
Speaker 1: And I think it's like, I think it's like minus 220. So you're probably going to be looking at, well, I don't remember what you just said, two and a half units. So you'll probably be up like maybe close to four if this rolls over and we go into week five. But now we're starting to cook a little bit. So the Jameer Gibbs rollover continues. It's very exciting. The other one, I don't even know if we have a graphic for it because we didn't need it. But The Welsh undefeated unders has ended, so now I'm obliged to never bet an under again. I was 1-1 on my unders. I put two unders on my card. The one blew past it, so I refuse to do an under this week out of solidarity for unders being lame. You are going to do the exact opposite here into the show, but we've got 10 bangers for you. Hopefully you guys are going to be tracking along with us. Make sure you guys download the betting pros app where you can track all of your bets. You can get all the data. You can see the five star bets that we talk about. You can see what betting pros, you can use the analyzer or the cheat sheet to help you out. All the tools that we make as a part of our whole system here, you can do the same. So download the betting pros app. Let's jump into this. Now that we got all that stuff out of the way, it's a fresh week. We got to be big and positive. We got touchdown calls first. I'm actually like super excited to do the first touchdown calls. But we also have a few returners to the prop bets here. I'm going to have one. You have got one that actually failed you. And there may be a trend of one person going heavy overs and one person going heavy unders. But for you, that's not going to change, at least in this first one. So Erickson, this is a squad ride one. I completely agree with you on this one. Love this play. Your first prop for week four. Hit us with it.
00:04:57
Speaker 2: Josh Downs over 62 and a half receiving yards. We are headed to London because I like starting my Sunday with the big W. So we're going to get some action in on this commanders Colts game in the early window. You're going to be up really early to watch Josh Downs dominate this defense. Welsh 630 a.m. Eastern time or is it 730 Eastern time because of the time zone differences with daylight savings? What time is it actually going to be? When the Colts game kicks off.
00:05:24
Speaker 1: Well, you give me the Eastern time. What is the Eastern time of the year?
00:05:28
Speaker 2: 9.30 Eastern.
00:05:29
Speaker 1: 9.30 Eastern. Wow. Somehow you got all of it wrong. I don't even know how you did that. 6.30. It will be 6.30 my time Pacific. Yeah.
00:05:36
Speaker 2: So you'll be up sweating the Josh Downs prop alongside me.
00:05:41
Speaker 1: I won't, but yeah.
00:05:43
Speaker 2: Okay, then you're going to wake up.
00:05:44
Speaker 1: I'm going to wake up to money. That's what I'll do. I'll wake up to money. You're going to wake.
00:05:47
Speaker 2: Up to money to Josh Stout's because his commander's defense is so horrible at covering basically everybody that catches the ball. They have allowed a league high 46.7 fantasy points per game to receivers. The fourth highest pass rate to quarterbacks targeting the slot so far this season. And that's where Josh Stout does the majority of his damage. 68% of his routes are run out of the slot. That is the fifth highest mark among qualified wide receivers. So it's a good matchup and it just comes to him facing up in this commander's defense and his role in the Colts offense has changed. He is no longer just being pigeonholed into, okay, you're only playing in 11 personnel. He is a full-time player in the Colts offense running the most routes on the team. The last two weeks, he's averaged a team high 2.4 yards per route run, on nearly a 33% target share while the team has not had Alec Pierce, who's been out with an injury, 20 targets over the last two weeks, five passes for at least 70 yards in each contest. So the fact that you're getting this number below 70 yards, he's been over this in two straight weeks and the matchup is oh so juicy. I think Josh Downs is going to have another big statement game here. The fact that he's being used more downfield, Josh Downs is usually a player. I think in years past, we would have had this conversation Welsh about, okay, Are we doing the receptions? Are we doing the receiving yards with Josh Downs? And more or less, he's always been a guy that, okay, we want to attack the volume with him because he's using used more underneath. But because his air yard share is actually now top 12 in the NFL, 114 incomplete air yards last year, he's actually seeing more downfield stuff. So I actually like and feel confident about the yardage, especially with his receiving prop or the receptions prop, like we talked about earlier, is really juiced towards the over, especially at five and a half. So I like the yardage here and he's going to go over.
00:07:33
Speaker 1: You actually make a very compelling case to play the other side of what my prop is going to be. And I'll tell you here in a second. But what did I say the first two weeks? If you give me four and a half on Parker Washington, I'm taking the over. Then they did give me four and a half the next week. And I was just like, nay, sir, because it's too juiced. We are now in a spot where I am going to open up the market to five and a half on Parker Washington because we are goat status. And This is going to be plus money, so I am jumping in. I'm jumping back. Technically, I'm 2-0 on Parker Washington bets. We are going to go for a 3-0. I'm back on Parker Washington, and we are playing. It's not necessarily the outline. It's the 5.5 over, and it's plus money. A couple different spots, there's a little bit over, or I've even seen plus 119 to 120 on Parker Washington. The thing that makes it interesting is what you said. Parker Washington actually is fourth in the NFL in air yard share. 46%. So that would actually be a play. It's pushed up a little bit around the 70-ish marker. So that actually kind of interests me in the ever going battle of receptions versus receiving yards. But in this case, like Parker Washington has been the guy. And now the Bengals secondary has been solid from an overall perspective. But if you look at PFF ratings out for this week, number two overall matchup for Parker Washington, graded out obviously because he is so high. But one of the things to focus on It's not DJ Turner. It's DJ Ivy and Dax Hill, the corners that he might be lined up against, especially specifically when he gets into the slot. DJ Turner will stay on the outsides a bit more. DJ Ivy does not even qualify, is unranked. And you're looking at Dax Hill, the other corner that's like 90 of 100 overall corners. So they're going to move. We know that Parker Washington is going to move throughout the offense. They're going to get him on the inside. And they're going to sling him the ball. His target share has been up there. I believe it's closed in on around 39% as I'm looking here. 28.4% overall target share for the team with a 32.8% first read share. So we just go through this. He is the guy. He is the top guy. And him playing out of the slot more. I know Jacoby Myers is going to force into some of that. I think this game is going to be slinging the ball. and Parker Washington is getting the targets per game. We're closing in on eight. These are going to be some catchable balls. It's a favorable matchup. Give me 5.5 on the receptions over, but you do have me a little bit interested talking about the air yard share and thinking about that. That is maybe a pivot play that you guys could take a look at if you want. And by the way, you can go and play these out with the NFL prop cheat sheet. Find the best NFL player props with betting pros prop bet cheat sheet. Quickly compare lines from leading sports books against our daily NFL projections. Don't cover the props offering the most value. Make smarter prop betting decisions all season long at bettingpros.com slash props. Go and play through, get your best bets in there, and let betting pros help you out. All right, let's go to number two on the props here. Will we start to get the unders, Mr. Undertaker?
00:10:40
Speaker 2: So I'm actually going to the Bengals-Jaguars game, Chase Brown. He failed me last week, so clearly now he's dead to me and I'm only betting his unders. Under 16.5 rushing attempts for Chase Brown. This number really stood out to me when I was perusing through the betting pros prop bet cheat sheet because this number is a ludicrously high for a player like Chase Brown. And I'm one of the biggest Chase Brown fans. We're talking about him as a buy low across the board in fantasy pros. But this number is just way too big for him in this particular matchup. The projections have Chase Brown at 14.9 carries. He's only going over this number one time in three games played this season. And that was against the Houston Texans. But dating back to last year, he's gone over this number just five times in 20 games played. That is a 20% hit rate towards the over, or as I like to look at it, an 80% hit rate towards the under, which is why we're playing this as one of my best bets this week. You look at the running backs so far this season that have faced the Jaguars, no running back they have faced has surpassed 12 carries. And a little trivia for you, Welsh. How many times do you think a running back had at least 17 carries against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the entire 2025 season? How many running backs and who do you think they were?
00:12:00
Speaker 1: Oh, well, I mean, how you're setting me up, it's got to be like two. And I don't know.
00:12:08
Speaker 2: You're right. It is two. Two very, very good running backs. James Cook, McCaffrey. No, James Cook is not either of them. It was McCaffrey. And Jonathan Taylor did it twice against them. But those guys are just different offenses, 90% snap share players. As much as I love Chase Brown, he's not in that category. He's not a 90% snap share type of player. He does cede some type of work to Samadji Pirine at times. So even last year in this same matchup where, to your point about Parker Washington, he did have a monster game last year against the Bengals. even before he had his like full-fledged breakout. Last year against the Jaguars, Chase Brown topped out at 16 carries. But the big difference from that game versus this game is Joe Burrow got hurt in that game. They had Jake Browning for the majority of that game, which is why they leaned on Chase Brown so much. So I think that's kind of playing into why his number here is so high. And the fact that he did do it one time already against the Houston Texans, but that was in a game where the Bengals could really play ball control and just try to play defense because the Texans offense could not move the football. their defense. So I just think that this number is totally wrong for a player like Chase Brown in a game where you could see the Bengals have a negative game script, like the Jaguars. This is going to be a close game. The spread is really tight. It's a high scoring affair. And I think that Chase Brown, yeah, he'll see volume and see touches, but I think his total volume will actually be a combination of rushing attempts and targets receptions out of the backfield versus just straight up carries. So this one, I really like a lot. The prop bet cheat sheet agrees under 16 and a half carries for Chase Brown.
00:13:44
Speaker 1: And we Okay, I'm down with this one. This one's a slick one. I'm going to play the rushing yards, but we are going to go to the quarterback, and we're going to play an over, and I'm finally going to dip my toe in the Malik Willis pool. That is somebody that, you know, wanted to try to dive into, wanted to see more rushing yards. Last week, that started to click. He was able to drop 56, you know, in a spot where he didn't really rush a whole bunch prior to that. I mean, 49ers, it wasn't a big one. But I mean, I guess against the Raiders, he had also passed this number. But what we're looking at is a consensus line of around 28.5. Projections are kind of all over the board. BP isn't, like, in love with that one. PFF has Malik Willis as the number one rushing yards quarterback so far for this week.
00:14:31
Speaker 2: And.
00:14:31
Speaker 1: Taking a look at the Vikings and what they've done, they have given up this number. Two of the three outings they have not, but one of those was a five carry 42 yard output from Caleb Williams. They're averaging around almost six and a half yards given up per rush to quarterbacks. And Malik Willis is projected at the minimum of six. So I think the number establishes out well. And another thing, if you go and look at grades here, the Vikings are a poor passing matchup for Malik Willis. coverage on the tight ends is one of the better ones. Wide receiver coverage is pretty solid. It's a slightly above average. I mean, defensive line rush there. We know they're going to just blitz the crap out of him. And they're also without Devon HN. They're without their number one weapon. I'm not sure that they're going to be comfortable with Jalen Wright or Ali Gordon being in a spot to take over that massive check down receiving spot. So I think this is a situation more where Malik Willis is going to be running. And running a lot. And I'm not playing rush attempts. I'm playing yards. And I think he can bust this one out. Over six yards per carry to quarterback so far against the Vikings. And Malik Willis going over 50. I think we're going to have another run of this. And to be honest with you, I'm not sure we're going to see Malik Willis under 35 yards rushing moving forward. So I think this is the top dog. This is a low number. 28.5 over rushing yards for Malik Willis this week. That's my number two. And I very, very much like that one. All right, let's go to our third. This is number five overall. We've both dropped two. This is gonna be our third props for this bad boy. Erickson, why don't you kick us off? You're gonna be jumping in. We love our tight ends. We love to bet our tight ends for touchdowns. We try to get them into the props and you are digging deep, my friend. Talk to us about Dr. Strange.
00:16:14
Speaker 2: Continuing to attack this Bengals-Jaguars game. That was my one thing to watch on the tailgate. This week, because this game is going to be really, really exciting, except for Chase Brown and his rushing attempts. Other than that, it's all overs across the board, including Bretton Strange, the tight end for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Now, he has been under this number at 33 and a half receiving yards all three games this season. But similar to the bet that we made a couple of weeks back on Rashad Bateman, it's just, hey, don't look at the box score. We're going to be forecasting this future matchup for Bretton Strange where better days are ahead for him. And we look at this Bengals defense. they continuously bleed yardage to tight ends. So far this season, they've allowed nearly 100 receiving yards per game to tight ends. That's second most in the NFL. Now, a lot of it did come in garbage time against Dalton Schultz back when they played the Houston Texans. But even before that late production for Schultz, they still had given up a decent amount of yardage. And the fact that this number is so low for a player like Brenton Strange, who over the last two weeks has run around on 82% of Trevor Lawrence's dropbacks, He's heavily involved in this offense. He plays almost every single snap offensively. The matchup is there and he's actually coming off his best game of the season where he did have three catches for over 30 yards and five targets. So it's continuing to trend upwards. Brenton Strange and he has been receiving some positive coach speak this week talking about how yeah we still want to get Brenton Strange more involved last week they were talking about Jacoby Myers getting more involved and what happened Jacoby Myers had his best game of the season so I'm expecting that same type of pattern here with Brenton Strange having his best game of the season and a very favorable matchup because that's how you attack this Bengals defense over the middle of the field with guys like Parker Washington and guys like Brenton Strange so the fact that the Jaguars are going to be pushed for the first time all season this week And it's not going to be a blowout or a game against the Denver Broncos, a tough defense. You're going to see fireworks and Brent Strange is going to get over this really low number.
00:18:10
Speaker 1: OK, I like it. I am going to be jumping to one of your guys. I think you had made a bet on him last week or maybe the second week. Give me some Matt Collins, man. Matt Collins. I love what he looks like in this offense right now, especially when they decide to throw him the ball. Not that I like anything about the Patriots offense in general, but I am a psychopath and I'm a sicko. And I still disgustingly believe that there's an opportunity for Drake May to bounce back.
00:18:39
Speaker 2: But.
00:18:40
Speaker 1: I also don't have the cojones to put a bet in on Drake May this week. So I'm finding another direction to kind of be invested. And that's in Matt Collins. And, you know, Matt Collins last week had that big banger. Six catches, yards were there. Projections so far on BP, they're pseudo supportive of where I'm going. And that is the receptions. I've definitely kind of honed in on the reception market a little bit early on because it's 3.5. It's a low number right now. And there is some juice, but you can find this even under minus 120 in some spots. I think that's enough to jump in in this spot. When looking at the last previous matchups, they've actually gotten hit, the Bills have, on some of these outside receivers, guys that can move around. There has been at least a receiver in every single game versus them that has obviously hit over this mark. with a couple spots this happening twice, but Nico Collins had seven catches, Amonra nine, Trey Harris, not Ladd-McConkie, was your big receiving marker, and if I do believe they're going to be competitive, and Drake Mays got a pretty heavy, if we're being honest, a pretty heavy passing total, passing yards total for where he's been at, Then I think I want to be invested in Matt Collins here, who last week had a 33% air yard share, was running around 65% of routes, 11 ADOT, a 29% target share, which I love. And his, where did I just lose it? I wanted to give you his first read, a 30% first read share. So if you're going to be attacking these guys, which by the way, here's some corner grades. Christian Benford, 95 of 100. D. Alford, 96 of 100. And Maxwell Harrison, outside the top 50 of 100 in corners. You're going to be able to pass on them. They're probably playing from behind. Matt Collins has kind of been the number one guy or the possession guy. And I only need four receptions on this. I might even play around and put this to five, but that's going to be mine. 3.5% Because I got a record to uphold here. 3.5 receptions on the over. All right, we've got two more coming up across the board here. So strap in because you're going to get your unders in. But I want to tell you guys first about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's a stock exchange for sports, buying in and selling out on your terms. When your team goes down to 20%, you can buy in and sell it off at 40% when they come back to double your money. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And they've got this great new feature called Squads. It's a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. Download the Polymarket app today and use code FPPOD when you sign up. That's code FPPOD to get $ 20 free after your deposit of just $ 10. All right, props number four. Both of us gonna get in the mud here a little bit. So get money with us here and not just take a Dolphin, which I did earlier, not just take a low total, but now drop an under on it, Erickson. Do it.
00:21:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, something smells fishy with these Dolphins running backs filling in for Devon Achan. So I'm gonna go with Jalen Wright under 29 and a half rushing yards. And the Dolphins backfield has been a highly discussed debate. I think this week with the injury to HN fantasy managers trying to figure out, okay, which guy am I going to go to? Who's going to get the volume? And does it even matter because they're facing the Brian Flores, Minnesota Vikings defense, right? Does it actually even matter which one of these guys gets the volume? Because Welsh, I looked at the markets today with these two running backs. I was really interested in playing an under on either Ollie Gordon or Jalen Wright. And It was actually kind of surprising to me that Jalen Wright actually has the higher numbers than Ollie Gordon does in the props.
00:22:35
Speaker 1: Well, he's first on the depth chart. I think that's why.
00:22:39
Speaker 2: And that's it? The unofficial depth chart that the PR guy puts together, not the head coach. Like, that's to me, I think, just kind of interesting. So the only reason I'm only playing Jalen Wright instead of Ollie Gordon is just he has larger numbers. Whereas... all the information that's been told to us is that it's going to be a full-blown committee in some way, shape, or form, and everybody's going to have a different role. So that's what Dolphins head coach Jeff Hathaway said, that very adamant that he was going to use all of his guys to fill the void left by his star running back Devon Achan. Now, what does that actually mean and translate to the field? Like, we don't know. So with all this ambiguity, I'm just pounding the under for these Dolphins running backs. And Wright has the highest number at 29 and a half. He also has the highest carry total at eight and a half rushing attempts. So I'm not confident that he's necessarily going to see that type of volume because it could be a committee. Ollie Gordon showed up last week, played very well, and got a ton of work. Jalen Wright's also coming off an injury. Foot, stinger, how effective is he actually going to be and how much volume is he actually going to get? So I'm kind of fading the confidence that at least the market is showing a little bit in Jalen Wright by taking his under. And then going back to the matchup, it's absolutely terrifying. Vikings allowing the fourth fewest rushing yards per game this season. They've allowed the lowest EPA per rush this season. Also, Dolphins All-Pro center Aaron Brewer popped up an injury report on Thursday with a hand injury. So if he can't go or he's not 100%, there's going to be no push up front for the Miami Dolphins playing on the road in Minnesota against this Brian Flores defense. I'm taking the under. I think this is a good process play. And if it beats me, so be it. But one of these Dolphins running backs is going to underwhelm dramatically. And just given the fact that the right number is a little bit bigger, that's where I'm going to go. And you know what?
00:24:27
Speaker 1: It's kind of a correlative play to my Malik Willis over rushing yards as well. That if you wanted to, you know, put some, we have the same game, we have the parlay wizard, same game parlay wizard, where that would be a correlative play to the over on Malik Willis and the under on Jalen Wright that you could put together. So I like where you're going. I am going to be taking a low number, but I told you I'm off. I'm off of unders for this week, even because lost one and it broke my heart. Three and one. So we're going overs. But this is a low total for stinky players so far this year. But this is a get-right spot, and it's Colson Loveland. Colson Loveland has a very low, rightfully so, receiving yard total of 33.5 this week. Every projection market likes the over. BP likes the over at around 38. Fantasy pros, if you want to look on the fantasy side of the different algorithm, around 41. One of the biggest ones. Obviously, I say PFF. I appreciate what they do. 55 is their marker, and hopefully that is barred out to where he's been. But one of the things– like Loveland last week doesn't jump out from like a target percentage. He was actually only targeted 11 percent of the time. First read percentage wasn't up there. I think if Bajan's in, Bajan's going to help this situation. But– Here's a marker that helped push me in it. Besides every projection like in it, besides BP giving this a positive grade, a positive EV market, projection EVs around 9% total on it. But when you go and look at cornerback grades on the wide receivers, because I actually started this off with a Luther Burden, but check these out. You've got three corners. Graded in the top 35 in the NFL. And you've got one who's a top 10 in Travis Brownlee. Thomas and Stevens both inside the top 35. So there's a shutdown on Adunze and on Burden. And this is a favorable matchup. Bottom third against tight ends. Two of the three games that they've played, the Tucker Craft stuff just went out. But against the Lions and the Titans, tight ends have each caught in five passes. They're averaging four catches to tight ends overall. And the yardage total is going over this with last week having 51 plus yards to tight end. So all of that to be said, Beijing a little bit more efficient. They get the ball in the air. They're trying to get Loveland more involved. Super low total. 33.5. Give me the over on Colson Loveland. It's dirty. It's nasty. But we're going to get back there. And we are going to end this bad boy off with some quarterback props. These are our final for the week here. We both got a quarterback that we're going to be playing. So Erickson. Will you go over 50% on unders? You got two overs, two unders. Where are we going?
00:27:10
Speaker 2: We're going back to the unders here. And this one kind of pains me because it involves the Detroit Lions, which I usually never will bet an under. But this game, the Lions and Panthers, is not being played at Ford Field, the chorus field of the NFL. It's being played in Carolina, where the forecast is actually calling for some potential rain, which... I really don't doesn't actually happen because that would just ruin a lot because we know this Lions team just acts totally different. Jared Goff's indoor cat. That being said, I still think even in pristine conditions, there's a chance he goes under this passing attempt number, which is listed at 34 and a half passing attempts. Five star bet on the prop bet cheat sheet this week. Jared Goff has gone under this number three games as a road favorite. He's been under this number in five of his last 10 road games. Carolina has faced the sixth lowest pass rate this season. To me, this is a matchup where you don't put Jared Goff out there in the elements and you just feed him your Gibbs. Like that seems like it'd be the perfect game plan against this terrible Panthers run defense. That's how teams have attacked Carolina so far this year. Three quarterbacks they faced. Nobody has attempted more than 30 pass attempts against them. So the projection is leaning hard into the under. And if there is a chance where the rain is legit, then there's no way that the Lions are going to feel comfortable dropping back to throw with Jared Goff 34 and a half times because that's just not his strength, especially in outdoor conditions. So I'm taking the under here. And I think this is probably one of my favorite plays as well.
00:28:35
Speaker 1: I like it. This one I kind of dove into too. I don't think I've done a passing touchdown marker this week or this year so far. But this one I love and I am going to, Jordan, love. The team that has no running game whatsoever. Going up against Buccaneers, team that is messy. It's a messy defense. It's a messy offense with Jalen Daniels out there. And there's one thing that Jordan Love does this year, or at least the Packers do. Throw touchdowns. He's had two touchdowns in every single game he's played so far this year. And that is the marker. And by the way, I believe, unless I just fooled myself out of it, it's plus money. Right around even on, but I'm seeing some plus money on 1.5 over on the touchdowns. And that's where I'm going to be rocking this. Buccaneers they only have one game where they've given up over two touchdowns but I think you have an extra messy situation that's going on so far they don't cover tight ends well they're not covering running backs well wide receivers is a little better play but there isn't much of a pass rush that's happening whatsoever so this team isn't going to run we just know they're going to pass get Tucker Kraft involved I desperately was thinking about doing my Christian Watson first touchdown play. Golden has stepped up. This is just a phenomenal situation, and the Buccaneers might be turning the ball over multiple times. This might hit in the first half. 1.5 over touchdowns for Jordan Love. That is my final prop. Those are 10 props that we have locked into, but we ain't done yet. We are going to get to some touchdowns here. We both hit a touchdown last week. If you guys want to get in on the action, go to bettingpros.com slash touchdown. You can check out the touchdown score report. Looking for an edge in touchdown bets? Our touchdown score report compares anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify the best anytime bets. Head to bettingpros.com slash touchdown for the latest touchdown prop analysis today.
00:30:24
Speaker 2: Mr.
00:30:24
Speaker 1: Andrew Erickson. Let's talk some touchdowns here. You are in the green. You have hit, I think, two of three weeks at least. You've got a couple touchdown calls here. So where are you going this week?
00:30:38
Speaker 2: Wherever the Lions are going is where I'm going to attack because that has worked for my process. Juwan Johnson, week one. Who do you play? Detroit Lions. Score a touchdown. Week three, Kenyon Sadiq. Scored a touchdown. Who did he play, Welsh?
00:30:51
Speaker 1: Oh, yeah.
00:30:52
Speaker 2: The Detroit Lions. So that's the process, man. That's how you hit on touchdown bets is you pick the players that are facing the Detroit Lions. So I have a twofer here today. I have two Carolina Panthers in my anytime touchdown bet calls. Teterola McMillan is going to score a touchdown this week against the Carolina Panthers. Or excuse me, against the Detroit Lions. He plays for the Carolina Panthers. TMAC has seen the most red zone targets and end zone targets this season. among wide receivers without a touchdown yet. So he got shut down last week against the Cleveland Browns, but that will not be the case, especially with Jalen Coker banged up. He's going to be the focal point of this passing attack against a really bad line secondary. So I think he finds the end zone or have opportunities to find the end zone. And then the same kind of spiel with Darren Waller, just specifically how bad the lines have been against tight ends. They've allowed six receiving touchdowns to tight ends in three games. Six different tight ends have caught a touchdown in against the Detroit Lions, and Darren Waller will be the seventh. So those are my anytime touchdown bets. Attack these Lions.
00:31:53
Speaker 1: I love it.
00:31:54
Speaker 2: All right.
00:31:54
Speaker 1: What does five touchdowns do for you? Well, that number is the amount of touchdowns that the commanders have given up to tight ends this season. Five touchdowns is a ridiculous marker. Two touchdowns against the Eagles to tight ends, two to the Cowboys, and last week, one. So obviously that would be the math. I was thinking it was A.J. Barner, but it was Sherbert. Five touchdowns given up. Every single week, there's been a touchdown given up. So how about Tyler Warren with a plus 160 this week for an anytime touchdown? They're not afraid to even use him on a little handoff and short yardage, but this is a massive, massive advantage. We've also talked about Josh Downs. I mean, I think that's also a play that you can jump into, but tight ends are a huge crutch. Really, anything on the inside, it seems Josh Downs is going to be beneficial, but I think this is going to be a really good spot for Tyler Warren. So plus 160 is mine. And then I've got the biggest anytime play here. I'm going to go to our boy Drake May. Told you I think he's going to get right. I guess I did find my way to be invested in him. He actually had two rushing touchdowns last year versus the Bills. We've seen this play from Drake May before where he starts to run. He doesn't have a rushing touchdown so far on the season. I do think they can pass some, but when they get into short yardage, they're desperate. He's desperate. He's talking about the shoulder. It's not the shoulder. Well, guess what? Put your shoulder down. Bring it into the end zone. Five to one plus 500 for Drake May on something that he has done against this Bills team before. And I believe this would be the first rushing touchdown to buy a quarterback against for the Bills as well. So plus 500 is my play for that.
00:33:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love that call. And this is something that I've kind of been tracking where every week you see guys get touchdowns, but then they could call back on penalty. So Drake may have a rushing touchdown last week, but it all got back on a penalty. And there have been times this season where guys one week, Darren Waller in week two, or excuse me, in week one, how to touchdown was called back on a penalty. What did he do the next week? Scored a touchdown. Cooper Cup in week one against the Patriots. How to touchdown was called back. Cooper Cup last week scored a touchdown. Like the coaches remember when these plays work. And then they go back to it the following week. So I think that this is a really sharp play, especially at 5-1. I'm going to be watching that game very closely, and I think I'm going to be tailing this one.
00:34:12
Speaker 1: I know, I know you will. Of course you will be. You'll be locked in. All right, our final one. We've been having a ton of fun. Oh, we haven't been cashing it, but there's big odds for a reason here. Our first touchdown, Pets, this week. No joke. Not accidental, by the way. We have both gone 65-1. This sets you up for the year. I got to tell you, there were two I was looking at. I was looking at Christian Watson again, because all he does is catch first touchdowns. It's seven and a half to one for him to do that right now, though.
00:34:43
Speaker 2: Wow.
00:34:43
Speaker 1: Trey McBride is another one that I thought was really interesting. I almost did any time touchdown, but I was too tempted as you were. So we are complete psychopath mode. 65 to one are both of our first touchdown plays. So please talk to us about your player and give us the pronunciations.
00:35:03
Speaker 2: I'm going with Nate Borkature for the Jacksonville Jaguars tight end, rookie tight end at 65 to one to catch the first touchdown. In the past, when I've been able to hit on some of these bigger long shot bets, it's always been, I find a game that's high scoring and you pick a random tight end on one of the teams.
00:35:23
Speaker 1: The guy that has five syllables in the name. Gotcha.
00:35:27
Speaker 2: Preferably. The longer, the better is actually what we're the approach here. So I will say, Positive coach beat for Porkature. And last week, he had one target, and it was inside the 10-yard line.
00:35:42
Speaker 1: Oh, okay.
00:35:43
Speaker 2: So it was close. He did not catch the ball, but he was out there in goal line opportunities. So if the Jaguars strike first against Cincinnati Bengals, I assume that they're going to try to come out aggressive because they know the firepower that's on the other side with Joe Burrow and company. I think that if it's not Brenton Strange scoring the first touchdown... It could be Borkature. So at 65-1, again, Patriots, Bills, Jaguars, Bengals, those are my two games I'm going to be locked and loaded in the 1 o'clock slate. And I know, Welsh, you're going back to the 49ers after, I mean, the Kyle Juszczyk play should have hit in some way, shape, or form. I couldn't believe it didn't hit, but You're not going to be swayed to go away from your Niners.
00:36:25
Speaker 1: No, I've got to be honest with you. I almost went back to Juszczyk. This feels like the week they go back to it. I almost did it. But I decided to go. I thought this one was nice and dirty and it's great. If Mike Evans plays awesome, is it likely that he doesn't and or is super limited? Yes. There are no live bodies. They were picking up Brandon Cooks and Dante Pettis. But you know who they do like to put out there? They like to put out Jordan Watkins. Jordan Watkins, I like to play as a three. And if Evans is out, he can kind of play that role. You astutely talked about on, I don't remember if it was tailgate, but how we might see Sertan start to lock down on the middle for a George Kittle. And they might go play action Christian McCaffrey and bam, Mr. Debo doesn't catch passes. He just gets yards. He doesn't get receptions. Jordan Watkins does 65 to one. Jordan Watkins, first touchdown, lock it up. But, you know, it'll be Kyle Juszczyk. Maybe play a little bit on both of those.
00:37:19
Speaker 2: All right.
00:37:19
Speaker 1: There you go. Those are our plays. But what are yours? Your favorite props? Drop them below. You got a first touchdown? Oh, baby. Let's see what those look like. Jump in the comments, interact with the show. Hopefully you guys are enjoying it, having fun and download the betting pros app as well. So not only can you track all of your bets, track your success throughout, track your favorite markets. Betting pros app will also be able to curate based on some of your betting tendencies. It's going to throw you out some suggestions, but there's lots of data to research. It is an amazing tool. We got lots of different systems as well, tracking how there's positive ROI. Go and check it out for yourself. Download the betting pros app. That is going to do it for us, though. For Andrew Erickson, I'm Chris Welsh. Good luck on all your bets for week four. We'll talk to you next time right here on Betting Pros. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.
00:38:08
Speaker 2: If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on X and TikTok at Betting Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also, subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com slash Betting Pros.
