WEBVTT
1
00:00:00.240 --> 00:00:06.160
Stocks Rallying Tuesday on reports amicron maybe, quote, more contagious but less dangerous
2
00:00:06.360 --> 00:00:11.630
than other covid variants. That's according
to USA. Today, China Reporting Record
3
00:00:11.750 --> 00:00:18.149
Import Export Data and anouncing policy to
support the economy, and that is given
4
00:00:18.190 --> 00:00:22.339
the global markets the risk on trade
back, at least as we're talking here.
5
00:00:22.820 --> 00:00:26.460
Tuesday morning. We had a big
upgrade from Morgan Stanley on apple to
6
00:00:26.739 --> 00:00:32.340
two hundred dollars, matching the street
high estimates from Dan Niles, and Intel
7
00:00:33.219 --> 00:00:38.530
jumping as it looks to once again
take mobile public. I have a feeling
8
00:00:38.530 --> 00:00:41.689
our guest today is not going to
care about any of that, but let's
9
00:00:41.689 --> 00:00:46.850
get to it. Aaron task and
Steven Alf joined today by J C Peretz,
10
00:00:46.890 --> 00:00:52.280
he's founder and chief strategies of All
Star Charts and Jac I'll not again.
11
00:00:52.320 --> 00:00:57.399
We're talking Tuesday morning. People will
hear this Wednesday, so lot can
12
00:00:57.479 --> 00:01:00.520
happen, as we see in in
the last twenty four hours. We had
13
00:01:00.560 --> 00:01:06.469
a big reversal on Monday and you
would put out a note over the weekend
14
00:01:07.750 --> 00:01:10.510
saying that this week could be,
quote, very important. I really think
15
00:01:10.510 --> 00:01:15.750
there are some very important resolutions coming
hard and fast. Do we have resolution
16
00:01:15.909 --> 00:01:19.900
here. This isn't it certainly looks
like it coming into the weekend. I
17
00:01:21.019 --> 00:01:25.459
mean especially with what was going on
on Friday. US THIRTY YEAR YIELDS BREAKING
18
00:01:25.500 --> 00:01:29.780
DOWN TO NEW LOEW'S US ten,
your yields really flirting with key Love Les.
19
00:01:30.140 --> 00:01:34.250
You know, a lot of failed
breakouts in small caps, in financials,
20
00:01:34.409 --> 00:01:40.450
in industrials. You know, those
definitely always catch my attention. You
21
00:01:40.530 --> 00:01:44.209
know, because every time you go
and you go study old bear markets right
22
00:01:44.569 --> 00:01:48.000
what happens at the top, you
tend to see a ton of failed breakouts
23
00:01:48.280 --> 00:01:51.400
like that last thrust. You see
it time and time again. You sat
24
00:01:51.560 --> 00:01:56.959
in February of two thousand and twenty, sadden, October and September of two
25
00:01:57.000 --> 00:02:00.239
thousand and eighteen. You see that. You sought in two thousand and fifteen
26
00:02:00.280 --> 00:02:04.069
before stocks really got hit. I
mean you just it's just a classic characteristic
27
00:02:04.230 --> 00:02:07.629
of tops in markets when you see
all those failed breakout. So when I
28
00:02:07.709 --> 00:02:09.469
see that I don't take it lightly. saw a ton of those, not
29
00:02:09.629 --> 00:02:14.310
to mention you know, I don't
really trust people like you. Talked about
30
00:02:14.349 --> 00:02:15.620
that analyst or whatever. I don't
know who that is. You know,
31
00:02:15.659 --> 00:02:21.139
the talk about the the covid people
and the you know, the what is
32
00:02:21.180 --> 00:02:23.219
it? The optimist? What is
it thing called from South Africa, the
33
00:02:23.699 --> 00:02:27.460
on, the crome, the Am
Kron. So I don't know anything about
34
00:02:27.460 --> 00:02:30.810
that stuff and I don't really trust
anybody who thinks they do. I trust
35
00:02:30.889 --> 00:02:34.889
dogs and I trust the bond market
right, like those are those are the
36
00:02:35.009 --> 00:02:38.930
types of people and things that I
trust. And if the S are breaking
37
00:02:38.969 --> 00:02:42.289
down, tens are breaking down again, especially with all those failed breakouts,
38
00:02:42.409 --> 00:02:46.479
that's going to catch my attention.
So not always lost. And then,
39
00:02:46.520 --> 00:02:49.560
not to mention Krypto was, you
know, sold off that flash craft and
40
00:02:49.639 --> 00:02:52.879
crash crypto on Friday, so over
the week, and I'm like, man,
41
00:02:53.360 --> 00:02:54.280
you know, this is going to
be a big week. And you
42
00:02:54.360 --> 00:02:57.719
know, you ask any traitor,
they say that at the beginning of every
43
00:02:57.759 --> 00:03:00.550
week, but this one in particular, with all of the things that I
44
00:03:00.669 --> 00:03:02.270
just described, I'm like, we're
going to know, we're going to know
45
00:03:02.389 --> 00:03:07.629
soon. And they came in buying
them. They bottom right and and think
46
00:03:07.669 --> 00:03:09.870
Kudos cuke. Is that that?
That was a great call. Obviously now
47
00:03:09.949 --> 00:03:13.780
I could say that now, just
seeing how things played out. But you
48
00:03:14.500 --> 00:03:16.699
you wrote about the s and P
five hundred. You need to hold above
49
00:03:16.780 --> 00:03:21.539
the September highs. Yeah, forty
five hundred, and I'm putting you here
50
00:03:21.659 --> 00:03:25.180
is the line in the sand.
Bad things happened below that and as we're
51
00:03:25.259 --> 00:03:30.650
talking here now, the sep comfortably, maybe a comfortable is not the right
52
00:03:30.650 --> 00:03:36.770
word, but if pushing forty seven
hundred. So again this. What does
53
00:03:36.810 --> 00:03:39.650
that tell you about? So you
make you made that call. It looks
54
00:03:39.650 --> 00:03:44.759
like it's worked out in a bullish
resolution. I don't that's a technical term.
55
00:03:45.120 --> 00:03:47.919
What does that tell you about,
you know, the next one to
56
00:03:49.080 --> 00:03:52.120
three months to where the markets going
to go? Yeah, talk about kick
57
00:03:52.199 --> 00:03:55.310
saving a beauty. Huh? You
say the same thing about the Dow Jones
58
00:03:55.389 --> 00:04:00.310
Transportation Average at sixteen thousand. That's
a very critical level. Those are those
59
00:04:00.349 --> 00:04:03.870
former highs from May. Dow Jones
Industrial Average, thirty fourzero five hundred.
60
00:04:03.949 --> 00:04:08.990
Again, those may highs. That
was a critical pivot point in market history
61
00:04:09.030 --> 00:04:13.659
because in May, mid May,
that's when the New York Stock Exchange advanced
62
00:04:13.699 --> 00:04:17.540
decline line. New York Stock Exchange
new highs list all peaked. Industrials,
63
00:04:17.620 --> 00:04:21.420
financials, materials, all peaked.
You had a lot of important that.
64
00:04:21.779 --> 00:04:27.410
You know. That was an important
mark this year and I'm moving forward in
65
00:04:27.569 --> 00:04:30.290
markets. I as a technician,
you know, we study these things and
66
00:04:30.449 --> 00:04:32.449
you trust me. That was an
important part. So if we are below
67
00:04:32.569 --> 00:04:38.050
those levels in indexes and sectors,
that's a problem. So when I look
68
00:04:38.050 --> 00:04:41.639
at regional banks, when I look
at midcaps, you know, the question
69
00:04:41.879 --> 00:04:46.800
was, are we retesting those spring
highs or are these massive failures? And
70
00:04:46.920 --> 00:04:50.279
if we're just retesting those spring highs, which it's as of Tuesday morning,
71
00:04:50.680 --> 00:04:55.750
December seven, certainly appears like that's
what it was, then this is a
72
00:04:55.870 --> 00:04:58.389
market, and I think I was
pretty clear about that this weekend, that
73
00:04:58.509 --> 00:05:02.750
we need to be very aggressively buying
because we're looking at a monster face ripper,
74
00:05:03.149 --> 00:05:08.779
if that's the case, because we're
coming off of volatility spike unwind that
75
00:05:09.180 --> 00:05:14.699
tends to be very favorable for stocks
when we get those. And if that's
76
00:05:14.699 --> 00:05:16.139
what's happening and you don't own stocks, you're missing out in a lot.
77
00:05:17.740 --> 00:05:23.490
Now you mentioned in your earlier comments
that you trust the bond market and you
78
00:05:23.569 --> 00:05:26.970
said bonds were breaking that I assume
you mean bond yields were breaking down.
79
00:05:27.769 --> 00:05:30.290
Correct, thirty year yields breaking down
below one point seven, one point seven
80
00:05:30.449 --> 00:05:33.490
five, those were the summer lows. So you know, we look for
81
00:05:33.569 --> 00:05:38.680
trends. Right markets trend so if
you're making lower lows in yields and bond
82
00:05:38.800 --> 00:05:42.519
and money's flowing into bonds, they're
probably doing so for a reason. Wright
83
00:05:42.600 --> 00:05:45.319
same thing with you as ten ye
yield below one point four percent. So
84
00:05:45.800 --> 00:05:47.279
you know, that's definitely something that
we want to watch. And then also
85
00:05:47.319 --> 00:05:53.230
in the bond market is the inflation
protected Treasury securities, the tips. So
86
00:05:53.310 --> 00:05:56.430
if you want to know what you
know what the markets pricing in for inflation.
87
00:05:57.069 --> 00:05:59.829
Don't talk, don't listen to what
the Federal Reserve has to say.
88
00:05:59.949 --> 00:06:02.790
Like that's a terrible idea. You
know, I encourage everyone to ignore anything
89
00:06:02.829 --> 00:06:08.300
the Federal Reserve has to say and, furthermore, ignore anybody who thinks they
90
00:06:08.420 --> 00:06:11.420
know what the Federal Reserve is thinking. That's even worse because now you're getting
91
00:06:11.420 --> 00:06:14.339
a derivative, a derivative. Just
go straight to the source and go straight
92
00:06:14.379 --> 00:06:17.970
to the bond market. Look what
inflation protective Treasury securities are doing relative to
93
00:06:18.129 --> 00:06:24.250
traditional treasuries, and if they're falling
apart, that's the market pricing in not
94
00:06:24.449 --> 00:06:28.649
inflation, but maybe some sort of
deflation or disinflation. Or stagfulation. I
95
00:06:28.689 --> 00:06:31.329
mean, these days everybody's got inflation, right. So you if the markets
96
00:06:31.370 --> 00:06:34.600
pricing an inflation, you're going to
see it in the tips on a relative
97
00:06:34.639 --> 00:06:39.759
basis, not the Fed, not
the Fed whispers or whatever they call them,
98
00:06:40.000 --> 00:06:44.519
but bond prices. And you're not
seeing that. And I mean we're
99
00:06:44.560 --> 00:06:48.509
seeing vulnerability right. We're retesting critical
levels. Like zoom out. Over the
100
00:06:48.550 --> 00:06:51.870
last six or seven years, you
know, we had tips, you know,
101
00:06:53.069 --> 00:06:56.389
breaking out out of a multi year
base to new highs. So if
102
00:06:56.470 --> 00:07:00.589
those fail, that's a big,
big problem. But they haven't failed.
103
00:07:00.629 --> 00:07:03.379
Their successfully retesting so far. You
know, retesting so far. So if
104
00:07:03.420 --> 00:07:10.740
you want to a real ratio,
look at tip relative to IEF. So
105
00:07:10.819 --> 00:07:15.610
you're looking at inflation protective treasuries relative
to traditional, non inflation protective treasuries.
106
00:07:15.769 --> 00:07:18.490
And if they break below they're two
thousand and eighteen highs, that's going to
107
00:07:18.529 --> 00:07:21.889
be a big problem. But to
be clear, they have not. But
108
00:07:21.930 --> 00:07:25.769
if you want to know what's going
on with inflation, it's the bond market
109
00:07:25.889 --> 00:07:29.170
we want to pay attention to.
And and nothing and no one else,
110
00:07:30.759 --> 00:07:34.120
I didn't says. We're talking here
the the tenure yield is at one point
111
00:07:34.399 --> 00:07:40.279
five, if you round it one
point four for eight, and you you'd
112
00:07:40.360 --> 00:07:44.199
commented again over the weekend. You
know, below one point four percent of
113
00:07:44.240 --> 00:07:48.990
the ten year bad things happen.
Yeah, so I like how you put
114
00:07:48.990 --> 00:07:53.629
it, you know, the stick
state kick, saving the beauty for the
115
00:07:53.750 --> 00:07:57.910
hockey fans out there. Like how
bad was it going to beat? I
116
00:07:57.990 --> 00:08:00.579
mean with it, with it be
like that's the end of the bull market.
117
00:08:00.660 --> 00:08:05.980
Kind of bad. With credit spreads
widening as they have, credit spreads
118
00:08:07.019 --> 00:08:11.300
were not confirming the new highs in
the SMPECE, with market breath deterioration meeting
119
00:08:11.379 --> 00:08:16.490
an expansion and new lows and a
lack of expansion in new highs. You
120
00:08:16.569 --> 00:08:22.250
know what ends up happening with all
of that stuff is that hurricanes come in
121
00:08:22.329 --> 00:08:24.610
that sort of environment. So,
for example, growing up in Miami,
122
00:08:24.970 --> 00:08:28.279
we weren't worried about a hurricane coming
in April, right, maybe like a
123
00:08:28.800 --> 00:08:31.960
shower or something like that, maybe
plenty of Sun, like those are the
124
00:08:33.039 --> 00:08:37.960
things you're looking for in that particular
environment. Come October, right, you
125
00:08:37.039 --> 00:08:41.399
know, come September, come late
August, you know, those are the
126
00:08:41.429 --> 00:08:43.789
Times that the hurricanes start coming out
from Africa. So you're keeping an eye
127
00:08:43.830 --> 00:08:46.990
on the weather from, you know, these storms coming from the west side
128
00:08:46.990 --> 00:08:50.470
of Africa heading towards North America.
You know, in this is kind of
129
00:08:50.590 --> 00:08:54.429
like that, right. So we're
in the environment, okay, credit spreads,
130
00:08:54.470 --> 00:08:58.580
widening, breath deterioration, expansion and
their lows, failed breakouts, like
131
00:08:58.779 --> 00:09:03.940
it becomes September in Miami where you
need to look out for storms coming from
132
00:09:03.940 --> 00:09:07.460
Africa. Now, just because it's
September Miami doesn't mean a hurricanes coming,
133
00:09:07.500 --> 00:09:13.169
right, but that's the type of
environment where hurricanes brew and we have been
134
00:09:13.289 --> 00:09:16.450
over the last few weeks and are
technically still in an environment where a hurricane
135
00:09:16.450 --> 00:09:20.889
can come. So we need to
really really pay attention to what's going on
136
00:09:20.929 --> 00:09:22.730
with the bond market and the stock
market, of course, and you know,
137
00:09:22.769 --> 00:09:26.559
come it and you know, I
said they need, they really really
138
00:09:26.679 --> 00:09:30.240
need to come in this week hard
and and they did. And obviously I
139
00:09:30.320 --> 00:09:33.799
didn't know that they were going to
come in this hard, obviously, but
140
00:09:33.919 --> 00:09:37.120
it was. It was, you
know, in life you have your needs
141
00:09:37.159 --> 00:09:41.029
and you have your wants, and
this was a need for the stock yeah,
142
00:09:41.070 --> 00:09:46.629
it's just so interesting. So occupational
hazard. This morning I've, you
143
00:09:46.710 --> 00:09:50.110
know, flipping back and forth between
Bloomberg, where they pretty much like to
144
00:09:50.149 --> 00:09:52.940
talk about the fat a lot,
and they talked about the yield curve flattening.
145
00:09:54.500 --> 00:09:56.220
Do you want to get your thoughts
on that? You know CNBC,
146
00:09:56.340 --> 00:10:01.580
they tend to focus more in individual
stocks and CEOS and, as I alluded
147
00:10:01.620 --> 00:10:05.580
to in the open, you don't
care about any of that stuff, do
148
00:10:05.659 --> 00:10:11.009
you? Thank God. Stuff is
really boring. So what? Why?
149
00:10:11.330 --> 00:10:16.929
Why is it, and maybe this
is not for this podcast, but why
150
00:10:16.970 --> 00:10:22.039
is it that financial media in general, and I'm a financial journalist like we,
151
00:10:22.159 --> 00:10:26.200
don't spend more time talking about the
September highs and why it is important
152
00:10:26.200 --> 00:10:28.759
for this to need to hold forty
five hundred and then? And that's the
153
00:10:28.840 --> 00:10:31.600
story, that's the only that the
only thing, that's the most important thing
154
00:10:31.639 --> 00:10:35.509
you need to watch this week.
Yeah, because we have different objectives,
155
00:10:35.549 --> 00:10:39.149
right. You know the people in
the media, they're not bad people,
156
00:10:39.549 --> 00:10:45.070
they just have different objectives than their
audience. Right, as investors, what's
157
00:10:45.070 --> 00:10:46.830
our objective? We want to make
money. Right. How do you make
158
00:10:46.870 --> 00:10:50.500
money? You sell things at higher
prices than where you buy them. Right,
159
00:10:50.740 --> 00:10:54.460
obviously so, and not necessarily in
that order. So if if the
160
00:10:54.539 --> 00:10:56.940
only way to make money, is
to sell things at higher prices than where
161
00:10:56.940 --> 00:11:00.539
we buy them. Why shouldn't our
analysis both begin and end with the study
162
00:11:00.539 --> 00:11:03.809
of price? Right? So that's
that's how professionals approach things. In the
163
00:11:03.889 --> 00:11:07.049
media. You are in the entertainment
business, right. You're not in the
164
00:11:07.129 --> 00:11:11.210
money making business. You're there.
You know, CNBC or Bloomberger, whoever
165
00:11:11.210 --> 00:11:13.370
it is. I've had a lot
of experience with a lot of TV stations
166
00:11:13.769 --> 00:11:18.450
and radio stations and all that stuff. They're just different objectives. So,
167
00:11:18.000 --> 00:11:20.200
and not to mention, you know, the stock market. I could tell
168
00:11:20.200 --> 00:11:24.600
you what happened in the stock market
in three minutes. You certainly don't need
169
00:11:24.679 --> 00:11:28.879
twenty four seven reporting about going on
Franky Kit. Yeah, you got to
170
00:11:28.960 --> 00:11:31.360
fill their time, I get of
course. But they're in the business of
171
00:11:31.480 --> 00:11:35.429
selling advertising to their advertisers, right
like. That's what their core business is,
172
00:11:37.029 --> 00:11:39.350
and in some cases some media companies
are better at doing that than others.
173
00:11:39.629 --> 00:11:43.429
But let's just be clear. The
media is not there to help investors.
174
00:11:43.629 --> 00:11:48.059
The media is there to entertain people
interested in investing. Two different things.
175
00:11:50.100 --> 00:11:50.820
Well, at least we're good people. At least you don't think we're
176
00:11:50.860 --> 00:11:54.779
bad people. I appreciate that.
I'm like you. I've had so much,
177
00:11:54.179 --> 00:11:58.220
I'm you know, over the years
I've been incredibly blasted to be invited
178
00:11:58.299 --> 00:12:01.409
on practically every television station and radio
and newspaper and all this stuff. I've
179
00:12:01.529 --> 00:12:05.690
never had a bad experience with anybody
like once. In fact, quite the
180
00:12:05.769 --> 00:12:09.809
opposite. I'm actually very impressed,
you know, with you know, how
181
00:12:11.570 --> 00:12:15.090
some of these anchors and journalists,
like you know, can keep up with
182
00:12:15.169 --> 00:12:18.960
everything that's going on. Like you
know, you think technical analysis and stock
183
00:12:18.080 --> 00:12:22.480
market analysis is hard, like being
one of the anchors of these shows,
184
00:12:22.559 --> 00:12:24.840
that there's so much shit going on. It's like, man, Yep,
185
00:12:26.399 --> 00:12:28.840
and yet by the people seeking me
off, or specially nice people, so
186
00:12:30.549 --> 00:12:33.070
they are. Yeah, and especially
on this podcast, take the bast.
187
00:12:35.549 --> 00:12:39.549
Speaking of Nice, I really enjoyed
a chart you posted yesterday, late afternoon,
188
00:12:39.629 --> 00:12:45.340
I believe, on Bitcoin and how
you compared what happened in Bitcoin on
189
00:12:45.539 --> 00:12:50.580
the early morning out hours of Saturday, where the price crashed, literally crashed,
190
00:12:50.980 --> 00:12:52.779
drop twenty percent and like, I
don't know, a few minutes,
191
00:12:54.419 --> 00:12:58.129
to what happened in the SP five
hundred nine hundred and eighty seven. Now,
192
00:12:58.570 --> 00:13:01.730
I know you don't care about the
Fed, but the stocks in one
193
00:13:01.730 --> 00:13:05.929
thousand nine hundred and eighty seven had
the Fed to kind of bail them out.
194
00:13:07.409 --> 00:13:11.250
Nobody's bailing out bitcoin. Do you
expect similar price action the on Bitcoin?
195
00:13:13.399 --> 00:13:16.279
And listen, there's a lot of
things that you could say that were
196
00:13:16.279 --> 00:13:20.120
different about the bitcoin crash than the
one thousand nine hundred and eighty seven crish.
197
00:13:20.200 --> 00:13:26.960
For example, Bitcoin was running into
former highs you in October, versus
198
00:13:28.029 --> 00:13:31.990
the with a former highs from April
and May. Versus the SMP. Five
199
00:13:31.990 --> 00:13:35.990
hundred thousand nine hundred eighty seven was
making new absolute highs. So the setups
200
00:13:35.029 --> 00:13:39.070
were different. Also, you know, for me it was more like so
201
00:13:39.230 --> 00:13:41.379
Saturday morning comes around, I'm ripping
through charge right because, like you know,
202
00:13:41.460 --> 00:13:45.059
some people like to read the newspaper
or magazines or something like that on
203
00:13:45.100 --> 00:13:46.820
Saturday morning. I never found much
use for any of those things. I'm
204
00:13:46.860 --> 00:13:50.019
more I'd rather get my information from
price right, because I know price isn't
205
00:13:50.019 --> 00:13:54.620
going to lie to me. So
Saturday mornings just great time to review charge.
206
00:13:54.820 --> 00:13:56.330
So anyway, a lot of the
guys have am I firm do the
207
00:13:56.370 --> 00:14:01.090
same thing for the same reasons.
So usually we catch ourselves sort of sharing
208
00:14:01.129 --> 00:14:03.850
charts and you know, talking about
what we're seeing out there on Saturday mornings,
209
00:14:03.889 --> 00:14:07.889
like early, you know, on
slack and stuff like that, and
210
00:14:07.490 --> 00:14:11.759
Strasso, one of our technical analysts, he's like, you know, it's
211
00:14:11.759 --> 00:14:13.720
complaining about a bunch of things that
I got stopped out of last week and
212
00:14:13.759 --> 00:14:16.799
the crypto markets. And he's like, okay, great, so when are
213
00:14:16.840 --> 00:14:20.279
we buying? And I'm like,
well, if I've learned anything about stock
214
00:14:20.320 --> 00:14:24.950
market crashes throughout my career, and
I've seen quite a few, you know,
215
00:14:24.029 --> 00:14:28.029
the bigger the crash, the longer
the need for repair. Right,
216
00:14:28.509 --> 00:14:30.549
we see it again and again and
again. You know, when the Naz
217
00:14:30.710 --> 00:14:33.950
that crashed in two thousand it took
forever for that thing to repair. You
218
00:14:33.029 --> 00:14:37.350
know when financials crash and no seven, took forever for that thing to repair.
219
00:14:37.710 --> 00:14:39.980
On a relative basis, there's still
nowhere near those two thousand seven highs.
220
00:14:41.299 --> 00:14:43.940
You know, technology, on a
relative basis, is still nowhere near
221
00:14:45.019 --> 00:14:48.460
those two thousand highs over twenty years
later. So talk about taking forever to
222
00:14:48.539 --> 00:14:50.419
repair. So I've learned that over
the years. And then my and then
223
00:14:50.500 --> 00:14:54.210
I literally my next words were except
for one thousand nine hundred and eighty even,
224
00:14:56.730 --> 00:15:00.490
and that was the low and then
even then in eighty seven it's still
225
00:15:00.490 --> 00:15:03.649
churned for a while, made a
higher low and then went and diptate two
226
00:15:03.690 --> 00:15:07.559
years to ultimately break out and make
new highs. So you know, when
227
00:15:07.559 --> 00:15:11.200
we talk about the similarities, there
are a lot of similarities in terms of
228
00:15:11.320 --> 00:15:15.399
high to low right. So the
high in the one thousand nine hundred and
229
00:15:15.399 --> 00:15:18.559
eighty seven crash to the low was
about thirty six percent. In bitcoin is
230
00:15:18.559 --> 00:15:22.830
about thirty nine percent. Then,
on an intra day basis, that eighty
231
00:15:22.870 --> 00:15:26.110
seven crash was twenty point four percent
into Drad, into dray drop, and
232
00:15:26.309 --> 00:15:31.350
Bitcoin was twenty one point nine percent. So I'm comparing them sort of how
233
00:15:31.429 --> 00:15:35.179
they look and the actual declines themselves. But as we've learned, and I've
234
00:15:35.220 --> 00:15:39.100
certainly learned, every environment is different, e reasset classes different every it's not
235
00:15:39.220 --> 00:15:43.100
that this time is different, it's
at every time it's different. So I'm
236
00:15:43.179 --> 00:15:48.899
looking for the relative strength in Crypto, not so much bitcoin. Bitcoin has
237
00:15:48.940 --> 00:15:52.690
been an underperformer for quite some time
now. It's the ones that are already
238
00:15:52.690 --> 00:15:56.049
above their first half highs, that
have been holding the first half highs,
239
00:15:56.250 --> 00:16:00.090
that have successfully retested the first half
highs and bitcoins. It's not on that
240
00:16:00.210 --> 00:16:04.480
list. Inking. So again we're
talking Tuesday morning right now. Bitcoins up
241
00:16:04.600 --> 00:16:11.559
over three percent. Fifteen, Montho
seven eleven and it was a, you
242
00:16:11.600 --> 00:16:15.879
know, in the mid S.
over the weekend, obviously very bad as
243
00:16:15.919 --> 00:16:18.350
set. They ums up nearly two
percent of forty four hundred. So which
244
00:16:18.350 --> 00:16:23.230
ones are on that list that have
held the first half highs? Yeah,
245
00:16:23.710 --> 00:16:30.389
the the Tara Coin. So,
Luna, UNA definitely one of the outperformers.
246
00:16:30.509 --> 00:16:33.419
In fact, it was actually positive
on the day, on Saturday,
247
00:16:33.419 --> 00:16:37.899
the day that bitcoin crashed. Just
to reiterate just how much relative strength the
248
00:16:37.980 --> 00:16:41.340
video game ones for sure. Look
at acte infinity, look at the Central
249
00:16:41.379 --> 00:16:45.980
Land, look at Sam box,
even Galas, much smaller down the CAP
250
00:16:47.139 --> 00:16:52.970
scale, but certain showing some relative
strength. Even cryptocom showing relative strength.
251
00:16:52.250 --> 00:16:56.090
So, Lana, you know you
want to ask yourself, you know the
252
00:16:56.169 --> 00:17:00.289
cryptocurrencies that I own. Are they
above their first half highs? Because if
253
00:17:00.370 --> 00:17:03.119
they are not, then you probably
own the wrong cryptocurrencies, right, if
254
00:17:03.160 --> 00:17:07.000
you own cryptocurrencies that are not above
the first half highs, I can't reiterate
255
00:17:07.039 --> 00:17:11.880
this enough. You probably own the
wrong ones. Interesting, and you know
256
00:17:12.079 --> 00:17:15.950
I'm recalling prior conversations we've had about
this. Sort of want to get too
257
00:17:17.029 --> 00:17:21.950
deep into it here, you know, but there are people out there who,
258
00:17:22.309 --> 00:17:25.509
you know, big cooin is a
religion for them and they think it's
259
00:17:25.549 --> 00:17:29.789
the only real money. And you
know it's going to cure cancer and save
260
00:17:29.869 --> 00:17:33.059
the world from all kinds of terrible
things and you just look at it as
261
00:17:33.420 --> 00:17:38.539
another asset. Is that creft?
Yeah, I mean, listen, you're
262
00:17:38.539 --> 00:17:42.019
welcome to think all of those things. Right, we were less to live
263
00:17:42.059 --> 00:17:45.809
in a free country. You can
have any religion you want, right,
264
00:17:45.930 --> 00:17:48.250
like you can. You can worship
anything if it makes you happy. I
265
00:17:48.329 --> 00:17:52.329
mean I'm all for listen, if
it makes you happy, for worshiping Bitcoin,
266
00:17:52.690 --> 00:17:55.250
worship, by way, right,
the world these more happy people.
267
00:17:55.690 --> 00:17:59.880
But you know, you have these
religious cults across ass at classes. You
268
00:17:59.960 --> 00:18:02.759
have it in Tesla, you have
it in gold, you have it in
269
00:18:02.799 --> 00:18:04.720
natural gas, you had it in
silver ten years ago before they all got
270
00:18:04.799 --> 00:18:07.920
carted off on stretchers. You know, you over the years, you have
271
00:18:08.079 --> 00:18:14.069
you had the apple. You know, less so these days, but man,
272
00:18:14.150 --> 00:18:17.150
back in the day, like Alia, remember that Arran, you had
273
00:18:17.190 --> 00:18:21.069
at to do. Oh, yeah, yeah, that's true. That you're
274
00:18:21.150 --> 00:18:23.829
there right. There's a history of
those and you know market historians, you
275
00:18:23.869 --> 00:18:29.380
know there was the fifty and the
s and you know for a long time,
276
00:18:29.420 --> 00:18:30.859
if you are a fun manager,
all you if you do, is
277
00:18:30.940 --> 00:18:36.779
own ipm and you were jeeves right. So so here we are. All
278
00:18:36.779 --> 00:18:37.980
right, we're going to take a
quick break. We'll be right back with
279
00:18:38.220 --> 00:18:44.049
more alpha trader. Welcome back to
Alpha trader. Are and task and Steven
280
00:18:44.089 --> 00:18:48.009
Al for continuing our conversation with JC
Peretz. He's the founder and chief stratus
281
00:18:48.089 --> 00:18:52.890
at all star charts. So,
Jac we talked it at some length about
282
00:18:52.930 --> 00:18:56.440
a call you meet over the weekend
about the S and P forty five hundred
283
00:18:56.480 --> 00:19:00.039
being its line in the sand and
the ten year being back above one point
284
00:19:00.119 --> 00:19:03.440
four percent. How that's extremely a
bull if you and you use the term
285
00:19:03.559 --> 00:19:08.440
monster face ripper. So that sounds
pretty bullish to me. We didn't talk
286
00:19:08.440 --> 00:19:12.230
about with something else that was in
that note that caught my eye was regional
287
00:19:12.349 --> 00:19:17.029
banks and midcaps. Quote, that's
the best story of the internals, a
288
00:19:17.109 --> 00:19:19.990
Fart. But I'm concerned if the
MIDCAPS, you look at the MDU MDY
289
00:19:21.109 --> 00:19:23.980
and regional banks, KRI, are
above their spring high we have to be
290
00:19:25.099 --> 00:19:30.900
buying stocks in all caps and quote. So where are they now and and
291
00:19:30.140 --> 00:19:34.099
why are they so important to you? Well, you know, I think
292
00:19:34.180 --> 00:19:40.529
what gets lost a lot of times, particularly in the media, is you
293
00:19:40.609 --> 00:19:42.490
know, what's the SMP five hundred
doing? What did the Dow do today
294
00:19:42.609 --> 00:19:45.650
with the NAZAC DO? What did
the Powell say or the trump or whatever
295
00:19:45.730 --> 00:19:48.849
the gossip des Your might be.
But at the end of the day this
296
00:19:48.970 --> 00:19:53.119
is a market of stocks. There
are five hundred stocks in the SMP,
297
00:19:53.200 --> 00:19:57.279
five hundred, there are thirty.
There are three thousand stocks in the Russell.
298
00:19:57.359 --> 00:20:00.680
Three thousand, right. There's a
hundred stocks in the NAZAC, one
299
00:20:00.720 --> 00:20:03.759
hundred. It's a market of stocks. And thirty five percent of the NASDAC
300
00:20:04.440 --> 00:20:07.990
is down twenty percent, right or
right, you know, something like that.
301
00:20:08.789 --> 00:20:15.109
And a third of the NASDAC,
you know, the average NASDAC stock,
302
00:20:15.269 --> 00:20:18.710
is down like thirty something percent.
You know, even the NASDAC one
303
00:20:18.750 --> 00:20:22.700
hundred, the average stocks down almost
twenty percent. So underneath the surface you've
304
00:20:22.700 --> 00:20:26.460
seen a lot of damage and when
I if you look through as many charts
305
00:20:26.500 --> 00:20:29.420
as I do, you start noticing
a trend, you know, which is
306
00:20:29.500 --> 00:20:32.299
why I was saying how those may
highs are very important. A lot of
307
00:20:32.339 --> 00:20:34.930
stocks peaked in May. A lot
of stocks also peaked in February. So
308
00:20:36.009 --> 00:20:40.450
emerging markets peaked in February, biotech
peaked in February, the IPO index peaked
309
00:20:40.490 --> 00:20:42.769
in February. NASDAC new highs list
and, as that advanced, the client
310
00:20:42.849 --> 00:20:45.250
line all peaked in February. So
that was, you know, that was
311
00:20:45.369 --> 00:20:49.039
the peak of enthusiasm in the market. If you recall, everybody had a
312
00:20:49.079 --> 00:20:53.359
spack back then, right and right, power bollock, you know, thrust
313
00:20:53.480 --> 00:21:00.039
higher coming off of the COVID lows, which ended up being the greatest fifty
314
00:21:00.079 --> 00:21:03.079
two week period in the history of
the US stock market, or something,
315
00:21:03.359 --> 00:21:06.430
you know, depending on what stats
you used, at least in the conversation
316
00:21:06.589 --> 00:21:08.230
number one or two. The bottom
line is it was a hell of a
317
00:21:08.269 --> 00:21:14.750
run, parabolic into February, and
since then the market's been correcting. Some
318
00:21:15.069 --> 00:21:18.539
stocks have gone higher, most stocks
have not. And when you look at
319
00:21:18.579 --> 00:21:23.500
things like midcaps, midcaps have been
the leaders amongst the smiths. so the
320
00:21:23.539 --> 00:21:27.740
large caps, particularly the mega caps, have been the best relative out performers
321
00:21:27.819 --> 00:21:32.740
throughout the year. But the ones
that are not megacaps and ones that are
322
00:21:32.779 --> 00:21:36.769
not large cops, Micros, small
as and mids. The mids by far
323
00:21:36.849 --> 00:21:38.809
and away have been the strongest.
Microcaps have been the worst. So in
324
00:21:38.930 --> 00:21:42.089
my eyes, if you lose the
MIDS, which are the strongest of that
325
00:21:42.289 --> 00:21:45.809
subgroup, that's a big problem.
Right. But if the mids are strong,
326
00:21:47.400 --> 00:21:49.400
smalls and Micros can't be too far
behind it. So that's one thing.
327
00:21:49.640 --> 00:21:52.319
Number two, when you look at
regional banks, you're looking at an
328
00:21:52.359 --> 00:21:56.720
industry group that's very vulnerable to moves
in interest rates and, as I said
329
00:21:56.759 --> 00:22:00.519
earlier, you know, the bottom
market is who I trust the most.
330
00:22:00.559 --> 00:22:03.869
Right and regional banks really really follow
what's going on in rates. So if
331
00:22:03.910 --> 00:22:08.029
rates are ripping and regional, but
if regional banks are holding those former highs
332
00:22:08.630 --> 00:22:12.509
and are and the regional banks are
ripping, chances are that's not happening in
333
00:22:12.670 --> 00:22:18.740
an environment where interest rates are collapsing
in right, that's chances are that's happening
334
00:22:18.779 --> 00:22:22.299
in interest rates are rising and its
bond prices that are collapsing. And how's
335
00:22:22.299 --> 00:22:25.140
the rest of the stock market doing
in that environment? I venture to say
336
00:22:25.180 --> 00:22:29.420
pretty damn well. So midcaps and
regional banks just presented us with a not
337
00:22:29.539 --> 00:22:34.009
a situation where if we were above
those spring highs, chances are bonds are
338
00:22:34.049 --> 00:22:38.450
getting crushed, stocks are ripping and
if you don't own stocks, you are
339
00:22:38.529 --> 00:22:42.569
missing out on serious, serious alpha. Not to mention that the VIC spiked
340
00:22:42.569 --> 00:22:48.359
above thirty. So if we've learned
anything over our careers, it's that when
341
00:22:48.519 --> 00:22:52.960
the unwind of that high volatility comes
into the market, stocks tend to do
342
00:22:52.200 --> 00:22:56.680
very, very, very well.
And what people often forget is that prices
343
00:22:56.799 --> 00:23:03.190
of stocks and asset classes trend.
We know that for a fact. Market
344
00:23:03.309 --> 00:23:07.269
returns are not normally distributed on a
current learning like statistics, fast these are.
345
00:23:07.349 --> 00:23:11.309
These are not random. So if
we know for a fact that market
346
00:23:11.390 --> 00:23:14.940
prices trend, then we could take
advantage of the trend. That's why technical
347
00:23:14.940 --> 00:23:21.299
analysis works. It's volatility that mean
reverts. Volatility does not trend. Volatility
348
00:23:21.460 --> 00:23:25.099
mean reverts. So last week was
just a great opportunity to feed the ducks
349
00:23:25.299 --> 00:23:27.809
and take advantage of that high volatility, which is great because we can collect
350
00:23:27.809 --> 00:23:32.130
that premium. It's just free cash
laying on the sidewalk. But what are
351
00:23:32.170 --> 00:23:36.450
the implications for the stock market?
And you know, as we're seeing over
352
00:23:36.490 --> 00:23:40.690
the last couple of days, the
implications of an unwinded in volatility is very,
353
00:23:40.690 --> 00:23:44.480
very bullish for stocks. Now you
mentioned financials and I want to ask
354
00:23:44.519 --> 00:23:47.559
you about a couple specific financials,
and I might be putting you on the
355
00:23:47.559 --> 00:23:51.000
spot here, so I feel free
to kind of demure. But Visa and
356
00:23:51.079 --> 00:23:53.920
paypal, these are two two big
names to daynt have done very well for
357
00:23:55.039 --> 00:23:57.869
investors, both of which have gotten
pole axed and we're dropping. You know,
358
00:23:57.990 --> 00:24:03.789
well before the broader market had troubles. Now I have my own fundamental
359
00:24:03.829 --> 00:24:07.150
reasons for thinking why they're going.
I think they're beyond the curve on crypto
360
00:24:07.230 --> 00:24:10.500
adoption and they're going to see their
fees kind of like whittled away and I
361
00:24:11.539 --> 00:24:15.380
think, I think that's the kind
of the fundamental reason. Are you seeing
362
00:24:15.420 --> 00:24:19.259
anything in this charge of those two
names that that says a bottom is near?
363
00:24:21.180 --> 00:24:23.690
Um? You know, these are
massive underperformers. Right. So,
364
00:24:25.009 --> 00:24:29.609
in a similar way that I said, you know in Cryptocurrencies, if your
365
00:24:29.650 --> 00:24:33.250
cryptocurrency is not above the spring highs, you own the wrong cryptocurrencies. You
366
00:24:33.329 --> 00:24:37.569
know how I said that. Right, in the case of stocks, if
367
00:24:37.650 --> 00:24:40.960
your stocks are not above the spring
highs, you can make the same argument.
368
00:24:41.000 --> 00:24:44.680
Visa is in that. PAYPAL,
for example, is in that category
369
00:24:44.720 --> 00:24:47.799
of the February peak. You know, a lot of these right, both
370
00:24:47.920 --> 00:24:51.920
names, because really, with what
those are? They they've been crushed ever
371
00:24:52.039 --> 00:24:56.349
since. You know, Palaton and
zoom and Docu sign and all of the
372
00:24:56.430 --> 00:25:00.869
Darlings of two thousand and twenty have
really been the ones that have got hit
373
00:25:00.950 --> 00:25:06.589
the hardest so far this year.
paypal certainly in that category. You know,
374
00:25:06.710 --> 00:25:10.380
Beza, maybe not to that extent, but definitely has gotten hit hard
375
00:25:10.460 --> 00:25:14.940
after peeking in the spring. Also, like so many other things right,
376
00:25:15.059 --> 00:25:18.059
that one, Pete and rotten actually
picked in July. So it continued showing
377
00:25:18.099 --> 00:25:22.490
that relative strength and just completely collapsed. So can we get mean reversions here?
378
00:25:22.930 --> 00:25:26.490
Sure. Can you know these I
head up towards two hundred and twenty
379
00:25:26.490 --> 00:25:30.130
five. Sure you know, if
the market really rips some of these underperformers,
380
00:25:30.170 --> 00:25:33.849
you're going to get crazy good balances. You know, things like biotechnology.
381
00:25:34.089 --> 00:25:37.759
Look at biotechnology as we speak,
of five percent on the day.
382
00:25:37.039 --> 00:25:41.240
This has been the biggest piece of
garbage on earth since February of this year.
383
00:25:41.640 --> 00:25:45.559
So that the harder they fall,
the bigger they bounce right. So
384
00:25:45.039 --> 00:25:48.799
pressing shorts in those areas. Is
certainly not anything that we've wanted to do
385
00:25:48.880 --> 00:25:52.750
over the last couple of weeks.
We've been pretty clear about that. But
386
00:25:52.829 --> 00:25:56.430
in terms of buying, sure you
can get a nice mean reversion here,
387
00:25:56.670 --> 00:26:00.309
but I'd rather own strength. I'd
rather own the ones that are pushing up
388
00:26:00.309 --> 00:26:03.230
against new highs, things already working, things like home builders. Look at
389
00:26:03.269 --> 00:26:07.819
home builders, making new all time
highs. Look at Envr. Look at
390
00:26:07.859 --> 00:26:15.700
toll brothers. You know what's the
other one? Not Toll Kate, NVR
391
00:26:15.740 --> 00:26:18.099
and tour or the strongest too,
there's one more. All in our one
392
00:26:18.180 --> 00:26:19.650
another. They're all making new alltihighs. Look at Home Depot. Look at
393
00:26:19.690 --> 00:26:23.849
lows. You know these things are
actually working. Look at semiconductors. You
394
00:26:23.930 --> 00:26:26.890
know, pushing up against new all
time high. So for me, I
395
00:26:26.970 --> 00:26:32.250
don't see any advantage whatsoever and getting
cute and trying to go bottom fishing and
396
00:26:32.369 --> 00:26:34.039
buying the worst of the worst things, you know, and hoping that the
397
00:26:34.079 --> 00:26:37.200
market agrees one day. I'd rather
be in the things that the market already
398
00:26:37.240 --> 00:26:41.160
agrees are going higher. Life is
easier that way. Mean reversion life is
399
00:26:41.519 --> 00:26:47.119
it's tough living. You Know You'R
mean reversion life. is like working in
400
00:26:47.150 --> 00:26:51.150
a coal mine. You know,
trend following life is more like, you
401
00:26:51.190 --> 00:26:52.509
know, beach life, you know, hanging out, you know, hanging
402
00:26:52.589 --> 00:26:56.029
out at a surf shop on the
beach in Hawaii. That's trend following life.
403
00:26:56.589 --> 00:27:02.099
That sounds good. This, you
know, side note. So I
404
00:27:02.220 --> 00:27:04.140
do want to ask you about other
names where you see that kind of price
405
00:27:04.220 --> 00:27:07.460
action that you like here. But
just to be clear, for disclosure purposes,
406
00:27:07.819 --> 00:27:12.339
do you personally own these stocks or
these are names you recommend your institutional
407
00:27:12.460 --> 00:27:18.609
clients? Yep, our institutional clients
are retail investor clients, are financial advisors.
408
00:27:18.769 --> 00:27:21.930
You know, these are the the
people that you know that read our
409
00:27:22.009 --> 00:27:23.970
research right. Anybody, anybody who
needs to put money to work on a
410
00:27:25.009 --> 00:27:29.089
regular basis. So anything from the
largest banks and hedge funds and pension funds
411
00:27:29.089 --> 00:27:32.599
and family offices on earth. You
know, market wizards who you know?
412
00:27:32.680 --> 00:27:37.240
All household names that we can't mention, obviously publicly, but you know them.
413
00:27:37.279 --> 00:27:38.319
All the banks. That are clients, for sure, but then a
414
00:27:38.400 --> 00:27:42.240
lot of individual investors, you know
it. Retired engineers, you know doctors.
415
00:27:42.799 --> 00:27:45.750
You know, I talked software owners. I mean I talked to all
416
00:27:45.829 --> 00:27:51.430
kinds of people with all sorts of
different objectives. One thing I've learned over
417
00:27:51.470 --> 00:27:52.869
the years is that all of their
objectives are different than mine. Like,
418
00:27:52.990 --> 00:27:56.789
for example, all right, percent
of Mike, maybe not a hundred percent,
419
00:27:56.910 --> 00:27:59.779
but almost a hundred percent, let's
call it, eighty or ninety percent
420
00:27:59.779 --> 00:28:03.059
of my entire portfolios and cryptocurrencies.
I'm not recommending that a financial advisor to
421
00:28:03.140 --> 00:28:07.539
do that for grandma, you know. I'm not recommending that a hedge fund
422
00:28:07.539 --> 00:28:10.339
who it doesn't even trade Cryptos,
do that. So I think it's really
423
00:28:10.380 --> 00:28:15.569
important to remember that everybody, every
investor, has completely different objectives than one
424
00:28:15.609 --> 00:28:18.890
another and just because I'm buying something
doesn't mean you should. And just because
425
00:28:18.930 --> 00:28:23.210
I'm not up buying something doesn't mean
you shouldn't. Right. And you know
426
00:28:23.250 --> 00:28:26.319
get I encourage all of our listeners
to check out all star charts. I
427
00:28:26.400 --> 00:28:32.920
get your your email newsletters, and
it's always interesting and he recently posted something.
428
00:28:32.960 --> 00:28:36.519
You talked about the Holy Trinity of
trading. Three questions need to be
429
00:28:36.599 --> 00:28:38.839
answered. What are your objective as
an investor? What's your time horizon?
430
00:28:40.000 --> 00:28:44.029
What is your risk tolerance? And
you know, when you figure those out
431
00:28:44.029 --> 00:28:48.269
then you could invest accordingly. But
you kind of knocked me over. The
432
00:28:48.430 --> 00:28:52.269
eighty to nine percent of your personal
portfolio is in crypto right now. Is
433
00:28:52.349 --> 00:28:56.099
that what I heard? I hear
that correctly? Yeah, probably more,
434
00:28:56.380 --> 00:29:00.380
you know. I mean listen,
we have we have money set aside as
435
00:29:00.420 --> 00:29:03.140
my family, you know, for
other things and real estate and stuff like
436
00:29:03.180 --> 00:29:06.339
that. But like, I own
real estate inside of de Central Land.
437
00:29:06.579 --> 00:29:10.809
I own, you know, I
have a helium mining operation with twenty five
438
00:29:10.890 --> 00:29:14.089
helium miners. You know, I
got some other stuff going on, but
439
00:29:14.130 --> 00:29:18.609
I'm pretty deep down the crypto rabbit
hole. You know, I'm a big
440
00:29:18.690 --> 00:29:22.730
boy, I know I know what
the risks are. I also am experienced
441
00:29:22.809 --> 00:29:29.319
a managing risk responsibly, you know. So I can do those things and
442
00:29:29.359 --> 00:29:32.000
I could change my mind tonight.
You know, maybe I have a right
443
00:29:32.400 --> 00:29:36.400
to have chicken parm that doesn't sit
well and I press a button and you
444
00:29:36.480 --> 00:29:38.230
know, I got out of everything
I've I did that a few weeks ago,
445
00:29:38.349 --> 00:29:41.470
right, for example. So things
can change at anytime, but that's
446
00:29:41.789 --> 00:29:45.829
right now as we speak. Yeah, I'm in and it's it. The
447
00:29:45.869 --> 00:29:49.390
names you mentioned earlier, Luna and
sand box and Salana, thing like that.
448
00:29:49.829 --> 00:29:52.660
Yep, that's exactly right. I
mean I own some theorium to pay
449
00:29:52.740 --> 00:29:56.460
for gas fees, what I need
to. So it's not so much an
450
00:29:56.500 --> 00:30:00.579
investment and etherium as it is a
utility. But I do have some etherium.
451
00:30:00.579 --> 00:30:03.180
I've got a little bit of Bitcoin. For some of the reasons you
452
00:30:03.299 --> 00:30:07.849
know, I don't really own Fiat
because the coin tracker that I use,
453
00:30:07.930 --> 00:30:11.130
which is like the quick books of
Crypto, doesn't recognize Fiat. So any
454
00:30:11.210 --> 00:30:15.049
Fiat that I do have is in
stables, stable coins, so that my
455
00:30:15.369 --> 00:30:19.890
coin tracker can track them. So
yeah, I mean I have. In
456
00:30:19.970 --> 00:30:22.400
fact, not only do I not
have any need for Fi od, it's
457
00:30:22.400 --> 00:30:29.400
actually annoying. So I literally have
to transfer it to stable coins. Well,
458
00:30:29.480 --> 00:30:32.680
I don't even know where to where
to go from there, but you
459
00:30:32.799 --> 00:30:37.549
asked, so I did. Yes, yes, but I'm going to I'm
460
00:30:37.549 --> 00:30:38.670
going to go, I'm going to
go. I'm so shocked I'm just going
461
00:30:38.710 --> 00:30:44.589
to go totally off topic to another
sector that's a super big important store listeners
462
00:30:44.589 --> 00:30:47.670
is. That's the energy sector.
Speaking of relative strength, it's been.
463
00:30:47.789 --> 00:30:52.140
It's been one of the stronger performers
all year and I noticed that the XCELA,
464
00:30:52.500 --> 00:30:56.180
even as oil really crash from from
the mid s to the mid s.
465
00:30:56.259 --> 00:31:00.500
The XCELLE really didn't go down that
much and fairly close to it to
466
00:31:00.579 --> 00:31:04.650
it's year to date high. Is
that the kind of relative strength you need?
467
00:31:04.730 --> 00:31:07.609
That with don't tell you you know, maybe xcelli is is going to
468
00:31:07.730 --> 00:31:11.210
head higher here. Kudos to you. You absolutely nailed that. You know,
469
00:31:11.289 --> 00:31:18.049
one of the things that we have
really been harping on, particularly internally,
470
00:31:18.250 --> 00:31:22.480
is the resilion and see of oil
and gas stocks, despite oil getting
471
00:31:22.559 --> 00:31:26.039
crushed, in fact, not last
week but the week before, when oil
472
00:31:26.240 --> 00:31:33.269
was down double digits for the week, both the Xcel and the xop were
473
00:31:33.390 --> 00:31:37.950
positive for the week. So as
I'm doing my Saturday morning charting, I'm
474
00:31:37.029 --> 00:31:40.990
like, I'm like, you know, slacking with straps. I'm like,
475
00:31:40.990 --> 00:31:42.829
Yo, did you see that Xop
was positive on the week? And he's
476
00:31:42.829 --> 00:31:45.509
like yeah, so is Xli.
I'm like, Oh my God. You
477
00:31:45.589 --> 00:31:48.140
know, wouldn't you know? When
the market, when you think the market
478
00:31:48.220 --> 00:31:52.339
should be doing something and it does
something else, that's when you pay attention,
479
00:31:53.380 --> 00:31:56.180
you know, when it when it
does something that surprises yours. Like
480
00:31:56.500 --> 00:32:00.700
man, he's oil and gas stocks
should have gotten crushed, with oil getting
481
00:32:00.700 --> 00:32:01.930
crushed, but they didn't, like
you know, so the fact that you
482
00:32:02.009 --> 00:32:05.329
just brought that up, I think
you nailed the head nail right on the
483
00:32:05.450 --> 00:32:07.289
head. Couldn't agree more. Chevron, as we speak, is making new
484
00:32:07.329 --> 00:32:10.730
fifty two week kihs. So what
I would encourage everybody in the same way
485
00:32:10.769 --> 00:32:15.450
that I mentioned. If you own
cryptocurrencies that are not above their first half
486
00:32:15.450 --> 00:32:19.680
highs, you own the wrong cryptocurrencies. In the stock market, look at
487
00:32:19.720 --> 00:32:23.799
a fourteen day RSI. The RSI
is a relative strength index. It is
488
00:32:23.839 --> 00:32:29.400
a momentum oscillator that goes from zero
to a hundred, thirty being oversold,
489
00:32:29.440 --> 00:32:32.549
traditionally eighty being over bought, and
I would encourage you to look at the
490
00:32:32.710 --> 00:32:38.109
fourteen day RSIZE for the stocks in
your portfolio or the stocks that you're looking
491
00:32:38.150 --> 00:32:43.910
to buy, because if you are
seeing oversold conditions below thirty in Ursi,
492
00:32:44.380 --> 00:32:47.220
in stocks that you think go higher, you probably own the wrong stocks.
493
00:32:47.619 --> 00:32:53.259
We want to be only buying stocks
that momentum did not get over sold on
494
00:32:53.460 --> 00:32:58.730
any of these corrections over the last
few months but have held in their oil
495
00:32:58.769 --> 00:33:01.130
and gas being right at the top
of that list. It's Intrigana and I
496
00:33:01.210 --> 00:33:06.930
really pleased appreciate the specificity of that
advice, but so you also said earlier
497
00:33:06.970 --> 00:33:09.529
than a lot of the names that
have fallen hard. We talking about paypal
498
00:33:09.769 --> 00:33:13.759
and some of the other darlings of
two thousand and twenty, as you put
499
00:33:13.759 --> 00:33:17.480
it, are probably going to have
a big bounce here. So if I'm
500
00:33:17.559 --> 00:33:22.640
looking to my portfolio and I see
stocks with with low working day RSIDE,
501
00:33:22.839 --> 00:33:28.150
you say I sell them today or
you know, and obviously everybody's different,
502
00:33:29.109 --> 00:33:32.589
but you know what's the general advice
there? Yeah, we when I listen,
503
00:33:32.630 --> 00:33:36.470
I would never tell anybody to buy
or sell. When this question always
504
00:33:36.549 --> 00:33:38.430
comes up and I get it.
I've been getting it for twenty years.
505
00:33:38.430 --> 00:33:43.339
JAYC I bought this stock and then
it fell and now I'm down. I
506
00:33:43.380 --> 00:33:45.019
don't know whether to salad or do
I wait for it to break even.
507
00:33:45.180 --> 00:33:47.500
Right. I'm you. If I
had a nickel for every if I had
508
00:33:47.539 --> 00:33:51.740
a big point for every time I
got to ask that question, and here's
509
00:33:51.740 --> 00:33:52.819
my answer. This is the best
answer that you're ever going to get.
510
00:33:52.859 --> 00:33:57.970
Here's the answer. As long as
your investment is a liquid like we're talking
511
00:33:57.970 --> 00:34:00.289
about a stock or Crypto or futures
contract or whatever it is, it's liquid.
512
00:34:00.690 --> 00:34:02.769
SAYS LIQUID IS CASH. You could
just press a button and be out
513
00:34:02.769 --> 00:34:06.130
and says liquid is cash. So
the question you want to ask yourself is,
514
00:34:06.569 --> 00:34:08.449
if you woke up this morning and
all of your money was sitting in
515
00:34:08.610 --> 00:34:13.599
cash and you could make any trade
you want, any investment you want,
516
00:34:14.519 --> 00:34:16.880
would you use that money to buy
this particular stock that you're asking me about?
517
00:34:17.800 --> 00:34:22.760
If your answer is not a resounding
yes, then there's your answer.
518
00:34:22.800 --> 00:34:25.789
Right, there's no reason to be
in it. Right, you have to
519
00:34:25.829 --> 00:34:30.469
be like yes, absolutely, I
would flip the book long this particular name
520
00:34:30.510 --> 00:34:31.909
if all my money was in cash. Okay, great, then that's your
521
00:34:31.909 --> 00:34:36.030
answer. If your answer was like, I should probably in that one,
522
00:34:36.309 --> 00:34:38.460
I should probably own this instead,
well, then there's your answer. That's
523
00:34:38.500 --> 00:34:40.860
the question you want to ask yourself. If I was a hundred percent in
524
00:34:40.900 --> 00:34:45.420
cash this morning and I could buy
anything I want, is this the stock
525
00:34:45.500 --> 00:34:47.340
that I would buy? If your
answer is no, and there's you know
526
00:34:47.380 --> 00:34:51.900
what to do. Fair enough,
and I'm so I'm going to go check
527
00:34:51.980 --> 00:34:53.849
my portfolio after work. We finished
her, but before we'll let you go.
528
00:34:54.050 --> 00:34:57.769
I do you want to ask me? You mentioned some of the home
529
00:34:57.809 --> 00:35:00.369
builders you like. You mentioned some
of the energy names. Are there other
530
00:35:01.050 --> 00:35:04.090
and I'm sure there are many,
but can you give us a name or
531
00:35:04.130 --> 00:35:07.010
two of other names that look really
good to you right here, if I
532
00:35:07.519 --> 00:35:09.239
for those of us who do have
cash that they want to put to work?
533
00:35:09.280 --> 00:35:14.800
Yeah, I like shaneer energy.
Talk about I mean this, you
534
00:35:14.880 --> 00:35:16.760
know, check my math, but
this might be the strongest oil and gas
535
00:35:16.880 --> 00:35:21.909
name of all of them, you
know, particularly at that market capital level.
536
00:35:22.150 --> 00:35:24.269
Chevron's making new fit the two weeks, so there's definitely some strength there.
537
00:35:24.510 --> 00:35:30.590
The XOP, which is the oil
and gas explorers and producers. That's
538
00:35:30.590 --> 00:35:34.309
where the leadership is, you know, it's certainly not in the oil services
539
00:35:34.469 --> 00:35:37.900
at all. If AXELP's above ninety
two, I think just stayed along that
540
00:35:38.099 --> 00:35:43.940
entire group. We talked about the
homies. We talked about Home Depot when
541
00:35:44.019 --> 00:35:46.059
lows right, which are kind of
like in that spread category with the homies
542
00:35:46.099 --> 00:35:52.090
right. So you can would really
group those in. And I mean semiconductors.
543
00:35:52.769 --> 00:35:55.449
You know, look at look at
names like in Vidia, look at
544
00:35:55.489 --> 00:36:00.530
advanced micro amd, which is an
old school name are and I'm sure you're
545
00:36:00.530 --> 00:36:02.610
very familiar with over the years.
You know, listen and Vidia is the
546
00:36:02.650 --> 00:36:06.800
biggest and the baddest. If in
videos above three hundred and twenty, which
547
00:36:06.800 --> 00:36:09.039
is flirting with those levels as we
speak, and videos above three hundred and
548
00:36:09.079 --> 00:36:13.280
twenty. I mean you can even
drop that down to three hundred from videos
549
00:36:13.280 --> 00:36:16.719
above three hundred. You know,
all in, let's go three hundred and
550
00:36:16.719 --> 00:36:21.550
twenty. Had be adding to positions, adding to more, adding more above
551
00:36:21.630 --> 00:36:23.190
three hundred and thirty, but certainly
above three hundred. I think you could
552
00:36:23.190 --> 00:36:27.110
be long. I think this has
four hundred fifty written all over it,
553
00:36:27.630 --> 00:36:30.309
but your risk management levels about three
hundred. That's the that's that last line
554
00:36:30.309 --> 00:36:35.099
in the sand to fill that gap. But you know we don't like averaging
555
00:36:35.179 --> 00:36:37.019
down right. Only you know,
as we learn from Paul Tutor Jones,
556
00:36:37.659 --> 00:36:44.420
only losers average down losers right the
ideas by more of the ones working right.
557
00:36:44.460 --> 00:36:47.210
You don't want to cut your flowers
and flower and water your weeds right,
558
00:36:47.289 --> 00:36:50.449
cut your flowers and water your weeds, or whatever. You know,
559
00:36:50.489 --> 00:36:52.010
you want to do the opposite,
cut the weeds and water the flowers.
560
00:36:53.050 --> 00:36:55.610
All right. Well, it's been
great having you on again, JAC.
561
00:36:55.929 --> 00:36:59.929
Thanks very much for being with us
today. Any time, Aaron. You
562
00:37:00.010 --> 00:37:02.159
know what I find me. Thanks, JAC. After my after my energy
563
00:37:02.199 --> 00:37:06.079
call and going to head over to
the charts and champagne room and joining you
564
00:37:06.159 --> 00:37:13.760
guys with all right, all right, I love it, all right,
565
00:37:13.840 --> 00:37:15.750
talk to you later, see you
guys all right, really appreciate it.
566
00:37:15.909 -->
Thanks.
1
00:00:00.240 --> 00:00:06.160
Stocks Rallying Tuesday on reports amicron maybe, quote, more contagious but less dangerous
2
00:00:06.360 --> 00:00:11.630
than other covid variants. That's according
to USA. Today, China Reporting Record
3
00:00:11.750 --> 00:00:18.149
Import Export Data and anouncing policy to
support the economy, and that is given
4
00:00:18.190 --> 00:00:22.339
the global markets the risk on trade
back, at least as we're talking here.
5
00:00:22.820 --> 00:00:26.460
Tuesday morning. We had a big
upgrade from Morgan Stanley on apple to
6
00:00:26.739 --> 00:00:32.340
two hundred dollars, matching the street
high estimates from Dan Niles, and Intel
7
00:00:33.219 --> 00:00:38.530
jumping as it looks to once again
take mobile public. I have a feeling
8
00:00:38.530 --> 00:00:41.689
our guest today is not going to
care about any of that, but let's
9
00:00:41.689 --> 00:00:46.850
get to it. Aaron task and
Steven Alf joined today by J C Peretz,
10
00:00:46.890 --> 00:00:52.280
he's founder and chief strategies of All
Star Charts and Jac I'll not again.
11
00:00:52.320 --> 00:00:57.399
We're talking Tuesday morning. People will
hear this Wednesday, so lot can
12
00:00:57.479 --> 00:01:00.520
happen, as we see in in
the last twenty four hours. We had
13
00:01:00.560 --> 00:01:06.469
a big reversal on Monday and you
would put out a note over the weekend
14
00:01:07.750 --> 00:01:10.510
saying that this week could be,
quote, very important. I really think
15
00:01:10.510 --> 00:01:15.750
there are some very important resolutions coming
hard and fast. Do we have resolution
16
00:01:15.909 --> 00:01:19.900
here. This isn't it certainly looks
like it coming into the weekend. I
17
00:01:21.019 --> 00:01:25.459
mean especially with what was going on
on Friday. US THIRTY YEAR YIELDS BREAKING
18
00:01:25.500 --> 00:01:29.780
DOWN TO NEW LOEW'S US ten,
your yields really flirting with key Love Les.
19
00:01:30.140 --> 00:01:34.250
You know, a lot of failed
breakouts in small caps, in financials,
20
00:01:34.409 --> 00:01:40.450
in industrials. You know, those
definitely always catch my attention. You
21
00:01:40.530 --> 00:01:44.209
know, because every time you go
and you go study old bear markets right
22
00:01:44.569 --> 00:01:48.000
what happens at the top, you
tend to see a ton of failed breakouts
23
00:01:48.280 --> 00:01:51.400
like that last thrust. You see
it time and time again. You sat
24
00:01:51.560 --> 00:01:56.959
in February of two thousand and twenty, sadden, October and September of two
25
00:01:57.000 --> 00:02:00.239
thousand and eighteen. You see that. You sought in two thousand and fifteen
26
00:02:00.280 --> 00:02:04.069
before stocks really got hit. I
mean you just it's just a classic characteristic
27
00:02:04.230 --> 00:02:07.629
of tops in markets when you see
all those failed breakout. So when I
28
00:02:07.709 --> 00:02:09.469
see that I don't take it lightly. saw a ton of those, not
29
00:02:09.629 --> 00:02:14.310
to mention you know, I don't
really trust people like you. Talked about
30
00:02:14.349 --> 00:02:15.620
that analyst or whatever. I don't
know who that is. You know,
31
00:02:15.659 --> 00:02:21.139
the talk about the the covid people
and the you know, the what is
32
00:02:21.180 --> 00:02:23.219
it? The optimist? What is
it thing called from South Africa, the
33
00:02:23.699 --> 00:02:27.460
on, the crome, the Am
Kron. So I don't know anything about
34
00:02:27.460 --> 00:02:30.810
that stuff and I don't really trust
anybody who thinks they do. I trust
35
00:02:30.889 --> 00:02:34.889
dogs and I trust the bond market
right, like those are those are the
36
00:02:35.009 --> 00:02:38.930
types of people and things that I
trust. And if the S are breaking
37
00:02:38.969 --> 00:02:42.289
down, tens are breaking down again, especially with all those failed breakouts,
38
00:02:42.409 --> 00:02:46.479
that's going to catch my attention.
So not always lost. And then,
39
00:02:46.520 --> 00:02:49.560
not to mention Krypto was, you
know, sold off that flash craft and
40
00:02:49.639 --> 00:02:52.879
crash crypto on Friday, so over
the week, and I'm like, man,
41
00:02:53.360 --> 00:02:54.280
you know, this is going to
be a big week. And you
42
00:02:54.360 --> 00:02:57.719
know, you ask any traitor,
they say that at the beginning of every
43
00:02:57.759 --> 00:03:00.550
week, but this one in particular, with all of the things that I
44
00:03:00.669 --> 00:03:02.270
just described, I'm like, we're
going to know, we're going to know
45
00:03:02.389 --> 00:03:07.629
soon. And they came in buying
them. They bottom right and and think
46
00:03:07.669 --> 00:03:09.870
Kudos cuke. Is that that?
That was a great call. Obviously now
47
00:03:09.949 --> 00:03:13.780
I could say that now, just
seeing how things played out. But you
48
00:03:14.500 --> 00:03:16.699
you wrote about the s and P
five hundred. You need to hold above
49
00:03:16.780 --> 00:03:21.539
the September highs. Yeah, forty
five hundred, and I'm putting you here
50
00:03:21.659 --> 00:03:25.180
is the line in the sand.
Bad things happened below that and as we're
51
00:03:25.259 --> 00:03:30.650
talking here now, the sep comfortably, maybe a comfortable is not the right
52
00:03:30.650 --> 00:03:36.770
word, but if pushing forty seven
hundred. So again this. What does
53
00:03:36.810 --> 00:03:39.650
that tell you about? So you
make you made that call. It looks
54
00:03:39.650 --> 00:03:44.759
like it's worked out in a bullish
resolution. I don't that's a technical term.
55
00:03:45.120 --> 00:03:47.919
What does that tell you about,
you know, the next one to
56
00:03:49.080 --> 00:03:52.120
three months to where the markets going
to go? Yeah, talk about kick
57
00:03:52.199 --> 00:03:55.310
saving a beauty. Huh? You
say the same thing about the Dow Jones
58
00:03:55.389 --> 00:04:00.310
Transportation Average at sixteen thousand. That's
a very critical level. Those are those
59
00:04:00.349 --> 00:04:03.870
former highs from May. Dow Jones
Industrial Average, thirty fourzero five hundred.
60
00:04:03.949 --> 00:04:08.990
Again, those may highs. That
was a critical pivot point in market history
61
00:04:09.030 --> 00:04:13.659
because in May, mid May,
that's when the New York Stock Exchange advanced
62
00:04:13.699 --> 00:04:17.540
decline line. New York Stock Exchange
new highs list all peaked. Industrials,
63
00:04:17.620 --> 00:04:21.420
financials, materials, all peaked.
You had a lot of important that.
64
00:04:21.779 --> 00:04:27.410
You know. That was an important
mark this year and I'm moving forward in
65
00:04:27.569 --> 00:04:30.290
markets. I as a technician,
you know, we study these things and
66
00:04:30.449 --> 00:04:32.449
you trust me. That was an
important part. So if we are below
67
00:04:32.569 --> 00:04:38.050
those levels in indexes and sectors,
that's a problem. So when I look
68
00:04:38.050 --> 00:04:41.639
at regional banks, when I look
at midcaps, you know, the question
69
00:04:41.879 --> 00:04:46.800
was, are we retesting those spring
highs or are these massive failures? And
70
00:04:46.920 --> 00:04:50.279
if we're just retesting those spring highs, which it's as of Tuesday morning,
71
00:04:50.680 --> 00:04:55.750
December seven, certainly appears like that's
what it was, then this is a
72
00:04:55.870 --> 00:04:58.389
market, and I think I was
pretty clear about that this weekend, that
73
00:04:58.509 --> 00:05:02.750
we need to be very aggressively buying
because we're looking at a monster face ripper,
74
00:05:03.149 --> 00:05:08.779
if that's the case, because we're
coming off of volatility spike unwind that
75
00:05:09.180 --> 00:05:14.699
tends to be very favorable for stocks
when we get those. And if that's
76
00:05:14.699 --> 00:05:16.139
what's happening and you don't own stocks, you're missing out in a lot.
77
00:05:17.740 --> 00:05:23.490
Now you mentioned in your earlier comments
that you trust the bond market and you
78
00:05:23.569 --> 00:05:26.970
said bonds were breaking that I assume
you mean bond yields were breaking down.
79
00:05:27.769 --> 00:05:30.290
Correct, thirty year yields breaking down
below one point seven, one point seven
80
00:05:30.449 --> 00:05:33.490
five, those were the summer lows. So you know, we look for
81
00:05:33.569 --> 00:05:38.680
trends. Right markets trend so if
you're making lower lows in yields and bond
82
00:05:38.800 --> 00:05:42.519
and money's flowing into bonds, they're
probably doing so for a reason. Wright
83
00:05:42.600 --> 00:05:45.319
same thing with you as ten ye
yield below one point four percent. So
84
00:05:45.800 --> 00:05:47.279
you know, that's definitely something that
we want to watch. And then also
85
00:05:47.319 --> 00:05:53.230
in the bond market is the inflation
protected Treasury securities, the tips. So
86
00:05:53.310 --> 00:05:56.430
if you want to know what you
know what the markets pricing in for inflation.
87
00:05:57.069 --> 00:05:59.829
Don't talk, don't listen to what
the Federal Reserve has to say.
88
00:05:59.949 --> 00:06:02.790
Like that's a terrible idea. You
know, I encourage everyone to ignore anything
89
00:06:02.829 --> 00:06:08.300
the Federal Reserve has to say and, furthermore, ignore anybody who thinks they
90
00:06:08.420 --> 00:06:11.420
know what the Federal Reserve is thinking. That's even worse because now you're getting
91
00:06:11.420 --> 00:06:14.339
a derivative, a derivative. Just
go straight to the source and go straight
92
00:06:14.379 --> 00:06:17.970
to the bond market. Look what
inflation protective Treasury securities are doing relative to
93
00:06:18.129 --> 00:06:24.250
traditional treasuries, and if they're falling
apart, that's the market pricing in not
94
00:06:24.449 --> 00:06:28.649
inflation, but maybe some sort of
deflation or disinflation. Or stagfulation. I
95
00:06:28.689 --> 00:06:31.329
mean, these days everybody's got inflation, right. So you if the markets
96
00:06:31.370 --> 00:06:34.600
pricing an inflation, you're going to
see it in the tips on a relative
97
00:06:34.639 --> 00:06:39.759
basis, not the Fed, not
the Fed whispers or whatever they call them,
98
00:06:40.000 --> 00:06:44.519
but bond prices. And you're not
seeing that. And I mean we're
99
00:06:44.560 --> 00:06:48.509
seeing vulnerability right. We're retesting critical
levels. Like zoom out. Over the
100
00:06:48.550 --> 00:06:51.870
last six or seven years, you
know, we had tips, you know,
101
00:06:53.069 --> 00:06:56.389
breaking out out of a multi year
base to new highs. So if
102
00:06:56.470 --> 00:07:00.589
those fail, that's a big,
big problem. But they haven't failed.
103
00:07:00.629 --> 00:07:03.379
Their successfully retesting so far. You
know, retesting so far. So if
104
00:07:03.420 --> 00:07:10.740
you want to a real ratio,
look at tip relative to IEF. So
105
00:07:10.819 --> 00:07:15.610
you're looking at inflation protective treasuries relative
to traditional, non inflation protective treasuries.
106
00:07:15.769 --> 00:07:18.490
And if they break below they're two
thousand and eighteen highs, that's going to
107
00:07:18.529 --> 00:07:21.889
be a big problem. But to
be clear, they have not. But
108
00:07:21.930 --> 00:07:25.769
if you want to know what's going
on with inflation, it's the bond market
109
00:07:25.889 --> 00:07:29.170
we want to pay attention to.
And and nothing and no one else,
110
00:07:30.759 --> 00:07:34.120
I didn't says. We're talking here
the the tenure yield is at one point
111
00:07:34.399 --> 00:07:40.279
five, if you round it one
point four for eight, and you you'd
112
00:07:40.360 --> 00:07:44.199
commented again over the weekend. You
know, below one point four percent of
113
00:07:44.240 --> 00:07:48.990
the ten year bad things happen.
Yeah, so I like how you put
114
00:07:48.990 --> 00:07:53.629
it, you know, the stick
state kick, saving the beauty for the
115
00:07:53.750 --> 00:07:57.910
hockey fans out there. Like how
bad was it going to beat? I
116
00:07:57.990 --> 00:08:00.579
mean with it, with it be
like that's the end of the bull market.
117
00:08:00.660 --> 00:08:05.980
Kind of bad. With credit spreads
widening as they have, credit spreads
118
00:08:07.019 --> 00:08:11.300
were not confirming the new highs in
the SMPECE, with market breath deterioration meeting
119
00:08:11.379 --> 00:08:16.490
an expansion and new lows and a
lack of expansion in new highs. You
120
00:08:16.569 --> 00:08:22.250
know what ends up happening with all
of that stuff is that hurricanes come in
121
00:08:22.329 --> 00:08:24.610
that sort of environment. So,
for example, growing up in Miami,
122
00:08:24.970 --> 00:08:28.279
we weren't worried about a hurricane coming
in April, right, maybe like a
123
00:08:28.800 --> 00:08:31.960
shower or something like that, maybe
plenty of Sun, like those are the
124
00:08:33.039 --> 00:08:37.960
things you're looking for in that particular
environment. Come October, right, you
125
00:08:37.039 --> 00:08:41.399
know, come September, come late
August, you know, those are the
126
00:08:41.429 --> 00:08:43.789
Times that the hurricanes start coming out
from Africa. So you're keeping an eye
127
00:08:43.830 --> 00:08:46.990
on the weather from, you know, these storms coming from the west side
128
00:08:46.990 --> 00:08:50.470
of Africa heading towards North America.
You know, in this is kind of
129
00:08:50.590 --> 00:08:54.429
like that, right. So we're
in the environment, okay, credit spreads,
130
00:08:54.470 --> 00:08:58.580
widening, breath deterioration, expansion and
their lows, failed breakouts, like
131
00:08:58.779 --> 00:09:03.940
it becomes September in Miami where you
need to look out for storms coming from
132
00:09:03.940 --> 00:09:07.460
Africa. Now, just because it's
September Miami doesn't mean a hurricanes coming,
133
00:09:07.500 --> 00:09:13.169
right, but that's the type of
environment where hurricanes brew and we have been
134
00:09:13.289 --> 00:09:16.450
over the last few weeks and are
technically still in an environment where a hurricane
135
00:09:16.450 --> 00:09:20.889
can come. So we need to
really really pay attention to what's going on
136
00:09:20.929 --> 00:09:22.730
with the bond market and the stock
market, of course, and you know,
137
00:09:22.769 --> 00:09:26.559
come it and you know, I
said they need, they really really
138
00:09:26.679 --> 00:09:30.240
need to come in this week hard
and and they did. And obviously I
139
00:09:30.320 --> 00:09:33.799
didn't know that they were going to
come in this hard, obviously, but
140
00:09:33.919 --> 00:09:37.120
it was. It was, you
know, in life you have your needs
141
00:09:37.159 --> 00:09:41.029
and you have your wants, and
this was a need for the stock yeah,
142
00:09:41.070 --> 00:09:46.629
it's just so interesting. So occupational
hazard. This morning I've, you
143
00:09:46.710 --> 00:09:50.110
know, flipping back and forth between
Bloomberg, where they pretty much like to
144
00:09:50.149 --> 00:09:52.940
talk about the fat a lot,
and they talked about the yield curve flattening.
145
00:09:54.500 --> 00:09:56.220
Do you want to get your thoughts
on that? You know CNBC,
146
00:09:56.340 --> 00:10:01.580
they tend to focus more in individual
stocks and CEOS and, as I alluded
147
00:10:01.620 --> 00:10:05.580
to in the open, you don't
care about any of that stuff, do
148
00:10:05.659 --> 00:10:11.009
you? Thank God. Stuff is
really boring. So what? Why?
149
00:10:11.330 --> 00:10:16.929
Why is it, and maybe this
is not for this podcast, but why
150
00:10:16.970 --> 00:10:22.039
is it that financial media in general, and I'm a financial journalist like we,
151
00:10:22.159 --> 00:10:26.200
don't spend more time talking about the
September highs and why it is important
152
00:10:26.200 --> 00:10:28.759
for this to need to hold forty
five hundred and then? And that's the
153
00:10:28.840 --> 00:10:31.600
story, that's the only that the
only thing, that's the most important thing
154
00:10:31.639 --> 00:10:35.509
you need to watch this week.
Yeah, because we have different objectives,
155
00:10:35.549 --> 00:10:39.149
right. You know the people in
the media, they're not bad people,
156
00:10:39.549 --> 00:10:45.070
they just have different objectives than their
audience. Right, as investors, what's
157
00:10:45.070 --> 00:10:46.830
our objective? We want to make
money. Right. How do you make
158
00:10:46.870 --> 00:10:50.500
money? You sell things at higher
prices than where you buy them. Right,
159
00:10:50.740 --> 00:10:54.460
obviously so, and not necessarily in
that order. So if if the
160
00:10:54.539 --> 00:10:56.940
only way to make money, is
to sell things at higher prices than where
161
00:10:56.940 --> 00:11:00.539
we buy them. Why shouldn't our
analysis both begin and end with the study
162
00:11:00.539 --> 00:11:03.809
of price? Right? So that's
that's how professionals approach things. In the
163
00:11:03.889 --> 00:11:07.049
media. You are in the entertainment
business, right. You're not in the
164
00:11:07.129 --> 00:11:11.210
money making business. You're there.
You know, CNBC or Bloomberger, whoever
165
00:11:11.210 --> 00:11:13.370
it is. I've had a lot
of experience with a lot of TV stations
166
00:11:13.769 --> 00:11:18.450
and radio stations and all that stuff. They're just different objectives. So,
167
00:11:18.000 --> 00:11:20.200
and not to mention, you know, the stock market. I could tell
168
00:11:20.200 --> 00:11:24.600
you what happened in the stock market
in three minutes. You certainly don't need
169
00:11:24.679 --> 00:11:28.879
twenty four seven reporting about going on
Franky Kit. Yeah, you got to
170
00:11:28.960 --> 00:11:31.360
fill their time, I get of
course. But they're in the business of
171
00:11:31.480 --> 00:11:35.429
selling advertising to their advertisers, right
like. That's what their core business is,
172
00:11:37.029 --> 00:11:39.350
and in some cases some media companies
are better at doing that than others.
173
00:11:39.629 --> 00:11:43.429
But let's just be clear. The
media is not there to help investors.
174
00:11:43.629 --> 00:11:48.059
The media is there to entertain people
interested in investing. Two different things.
175
00:11:50.100 --> 00:11:50.820
Well, at least we're good people. At least you don't think we're
176
00:11:50.860 --> 00:11:54.779
bad people. I appreciate that.
I'm like you. I've had so much,
177
00:11:54.179 --> 00:11:58.220
I'm you know, over the years
I've been incredibly blasted to be invited
178
00:11:58.299 --> 00:12:01.409
on practically every television station and radio
and newspaper and all this stuff. I've
179
00:12:01.529 --> 00:12:05.690
never had a bad experience with anybody
like once. In fact, quite the
180
00:12:05.769 --> 00:12:09.809
opposite. I'm actually very impressed,
you know, with you know, how
181
00:12:11.570 --> 00:12:15.090
some of these anchors and journalists,
like you know, can keep up with
182
00:12:15.169 --> 00:12:18.960
everything that's going on. Like you
know, you think technical analysis and stock
183
00:12:18.080 --> 00:12:22.480
market analysis is hard, like being
one of the anchors of these shows,
184
00:12:22.559 --> 00:12:24.840
that there's so much shit going on. It's like, man, Yep,
185
00:12:26.399 --> 00:12:28.840
and yet by the people seeking me
off, or specially nice people, so
186
00:12:30.549 --> 00:12:33.070
they are. Yeah, and especially
on this podcast, take the bast.
187
00:12:35.549 --> 00:12:39.549
Speaking of Nice, I really enjoyed
a chart you posted yesterday, late afternoon,
188
00:12:39.629 --> 00:12:45.340
I believe, on Bitcoin and how
you compared what happened in Bitcoin on
189
00:12:45.539 --> 00:12:50.580
the early morning out hours of Saturday, where the price crashed, literally crashed,
190
00:12:50.980 --> 00:12:52.779
drop twenty percent and like, I
don't know, a few minutes,
191
00:12:54.419 --> 00:12:58.129
to what happened in the SP five
hundred nine hundred and eighty seven. Now,
192
00:12:58.570 --> 00:13:01.730
I know you don't care about the
Fed, but the stocks in one
193
00:13:01.730 --> 00:13:05.929
thousand nine hundred and eighty seven had
the Fed to kind of bail them out.
194
00:13:07.409 --> 00:13:11.250
Nobody's bailing out bitcoin. Do you
expect similar price action the on Bitcoin?
195
00:13:13.399 --> 00:13:16.279
And listen, there's a lot of
things that you could say that were
196
00:13:16.279 --> 00:13:20.120
different about the bitcoin crash than the
one thousand nine hundred and eighty seven crish.
197
00:13:20.200 --> 00:13:26.960
For example, Bitcoin was running into
former highs you in October, versus
198
00:13:28.029 --> 00:13:31.990
the with a former highs from April
and May. Versus the SMP. Five
199
00:13:31.990 --> 00:13:35.990
hundred thousand nine hundred eighty seven was
making new absolute highs. So the setups
200
00:13:35.029 --> 00:13:39.070
were different. Also, you know, for me it was more like so
201
00:13:39.230 --> 00:13:41.379
Saturday morning comes around, I'm ripping
through charge right because, like you know,
202
00:13:41.460 --> 00:13:45.059
some people like to read the newspaper
or magazines or something like that on
203
00:13:45.100 --> 00:13:46.820
Saturday morning. I never found much
use for any of those things. I'm
204
00:13:46.860 --> 00:13:50.019
more I'd rather get my information from
price right, because I know price isn't
205
00:13:50.019 --> 00:13:54.620
going to lie to me. So
Saturday mornings just great time to review charge.
206
00:13:54.820 --> 00:13:56.330
So anyway, a lot of the
guys have am I firm do the
207
00:13:56.370 --> 00:14:01.090
same thing for the same reasons.
So usually we catch ourselves sort of sharing
208
00:14:01.129 --> 00:14:03.850
charts and you know, talking about
what we're seeing out there on Saturday mornings,
209
00:14:03.889 --> 00:14:07.889
like early, you know, on
slack and stuff like that, and
210
00:14:07.490 --> 00:14:11.759
Strasso, one of our technical analysts, he's like, you know, it's
211
00:14:11.759 --> 00:14:13.720
complaining about a bunch of things that
I got stopped out of last week and
212
00:14:13.759 --> 00:14:16.799
the crypto markets. And he's like, okay, great, so when are
213
00:14:16.840 --> 00:14:20.279
we buying? And I'm like,
well, if I've learned anything about stock
214
00:14:20.320 --> 00:14:24.950
market crashes throughout my career, and
I've seen quite a few, you know,
215
00:14:24.029 --> 00:14:28.029
the bigger the crash, the longer
the need for repair. Right,
216
00:14:28.509 --> 00:14:30.549
we see it again and again and
again. You know, when the Naz
217
00:14:30.710 --> 00:14:33.950
that crashed in two thousand it took
forever for that thing to repair. You
218
00:14:33.029 --> 00:14:37.350
know when financials crash and no seven, took forever for that thing to repair.
219
00:14:37.710 --> 00:14:39.980
On a relative basis, there's still
nowhere near those two thousand seven highs.
220
00:14:41.299 --> 00:14:43.940
You know, technology, on a
relative basis, is still nowhere near
221
00:14:45.019 --> 00:14:48.460
those two thousand highs over twenty years
later. So talk about taking forever to
222
00:14:48.539 --> 00:14:50.419
repair. So I've learned that over
the years. And then my and then
223
00:14:50.500 --> 00:14:54.210
I literally my next words were except
for one thousand nine hundred and eighty even,
224
00:14:56.730 --> 00:15:00.490
and that was the low and then
even then in eighty seven it's still
225
00:15:00.490 --> 00:15:03.649
churned for a while, made a
higher low and then went and diptate two
226
00:15:03.690 --> 00:15:07.559
years to ultimately break out and make
new highs. So you know, when
227
00:15:07.559 --> 00:15:11.200
we talk about the similarities, there
are a lot of similarities in terms of
228
00:15:11.320 --> 00:15:15.399
high to low right. So the
high in the one thousand nine hundred and
229
00:15:15.399 --> 00:15:18.559
eighty seven crash to the low was
about thirty six percent. In bitcoin is
230
00:15:18.559 --> 00:15:22.830
about thirty nine percent. Then,
on an intra day basis, that eighty
231
00:15:22.870 --> 00:15:26.110
seven crash was twenty point four percent
into Drad, into dray drop, and
232
00:15:26.309 --> 00:15:31.350
Bitcoin was twenty one point nine percent. So I'm comparing them sort of how
233
00:15:31.429 --> 00:15:35.179
they look and the actual declines themselves. But as we've learned, and I've
234
00:15:35.220 --> 00:15:39.100
certainly learned, every environment is different, e reasset classes different every it's not
235
00:15:39.220 --> 00:15:43.100
that this time is different, it's
at every time it's different. So I'm
236
00:15:43.179 --> 00:15:48.899
looking for the relative strength in Crypto, not so much bitcoin. Bitcoin has
237
00:15:48.940 --> 00:15:52.690
been an underperformer for quite some time
now. It's the ones that are already
238
00:15:52.690 --> 00:15:56.049
above their first half highs, that
have been holding the first half highs,
239
00:15:56.250 --> 00:16:00.090
that have successfully retested the first half
highs and bitcoins. It's not on that
240
00:16:00.210 --> 00:16:04.480
list. Inking. So again we're
talking Tuesday morning right now. Bitcoins up
241
00:16:04.600 --> 00:16:11.559
over three percent. Fifteen, Montho
seven eleven and it was a, you
242
00:16:11.600 --> 00:16:15.879
know, in the mid S.
over the weekend, obviously very bad as
243
00:16:15.919 --> 00:16:18.350
set. They ums up nearly two
percent of forty four hundred. So which
244
00:16:18.350 --> 00:16:23.230
ones are on that list that have
held the first half highs? Yeah,
245
00:16:23.710 --> 00:16:30.389
the the Tara Coin. So,
Luna, UNA definitely one of the outperformers.
246
00:16:30.509 --> 00:16:33.419
In fact, it was actually positive
on the day, on Saturday,
247
00:16:33.419 --> 00:16:37.899
the day that bitcoin crashed. Just
to reiterate just how much relative strength the
248
00:16:37.980 --> 00:16:41.340
video game ones for sure. Look
at acte infinity, look at the Central
249
00:16:41.379 --> 00:16:45.980
Land, look at Sam box,
even Galas, much smaller down the CAP
250
00:16:47.139 --> 00:16:52.970
scale, but certain showing some relative
strength. Even cryptocom showing relative strength.
251
00:16:52.250 --> 00:16:56.090
So, Lana, you know you
want to ask yourself, you know the
252
00:16:56.169 --> 00:17:00.289
cryptocurrencies that I own. Are they
above their first half highs? Because if
253
00:17:00.370 --> 00:17:03.119
they are not, then you probably
own the wrong cryptocurrencies, right, if
254
00:17:03.160 --> 00:17:07.000
you own cryptocurrencies that are not above
the first half highs, I can't reiterate
255
00:17:07.039 --> 00:17:11.880
this enough. You probably own the
wrong ones. Interesting, and you know
256
00:17:12.079 --> 00:17:15.950
I'm recalling prior conversations we've had about
this. Sort of want to get too
257
00:17:17.029 --> 00:17:21.950
deep into it here, you know, but there are people out there who,
258
00:17:22.309 --> 00:17:25.509
you know, big cooin is a
religion for them and they think it's
259
00:17:25.549 --> 00:17:29.789
the only real money. And you
know it's going to cure cancer and save
260
00:17:29.869 --> 00:17:33.059
the world from all kinds of terrible
things and you just look at it as
261
00:17:33.420 --> 00:17:38.539
another asset. Is that creft?
Yeah, I mean, listen, you're
262
00:17:38.539 --> 00:17:42.019
welcome to think all of those things. Right, we were less to live
263
00:17:42.059 --> 00:17:45.809
in a free country. You can
have any religion you want, right,
264
00:17:45.930 --> 00:17:48.250
like you can. You can worship
anything if it makes you happy. I
265
00:17:48.329 --> 00:17:52.329
mean I'm all for listen, if
it makes you happy, for worshiping Bitcoin,
266
00:17:52.690 --> 00:17:55.250
worship, by way, right,
the world these more happy people.
267
00:17:55.690 --> 00:17:59.880
But you know, you have these
religious cults across ass at classes. You
268
00:17:59.960 --> 00:18:02.759
have it in Tesla, you have
it in gold, you have it in
269
00:18:02.799 --> 00:18:04.720
natural gas, you had it in
silver ten years ago before they all got
270
00:18:04.799 --> 00:18:07.920
carted off on stretchers. You know, you over the years, you have
271
00:18:08.079 --> 00:18:14.069
you had the apple. You know, less so these days, but man,
272
00:18:14.150 --> 00:18:17.150
back in the day, like Alia, remember that Arran, you had
273
00:18:17.190 --> 00:18:21.069
at to do. Oh, yeah, yeah, that's true. That you're
274
00:18:21.150 --> 00:18:23.829
there right. There's a history of
those and you know market historians, you
275
00:18:23.869 --> 00:18:29.380
know there was the fifty and the
s and you know for a long time,
276
00:18:29.420 --> 00:18:30.859
if you are a fun manager,
all you if you do, is
277
00:18:30.940 --> 00:18:36.779
own ipm and you were jeeves right. So so here we are. All
278
00:18:36.779 --> 00:18:37.980
right, we're going to take a
quick break. We'll be right back with
279
00:18:38.220 --> 00:18:44.049
more alpha trader. Welcome back to
Alpha trader. Are and task and Steven
280
00:18:44.089 --> 00:18:48.009
Al for continuing our conversation with JC
Peretz. He's the founder and chief stratus
281
00:18:48.089 --> 00:18:52.890
at all star charts. So,
Jac we talked it at some length about
282
00:18:52.930 --> 00:18:56.440
a call you meet over the weekend
about the S and P forty five hundred
283
00:18:56.480 --> 00:19:00.039
being its line in the sand and
the ten year being back above one point
284
00:19:00.119 --> 00:19:03.440
four percent. How that's extremely a
bull if you and you use the term
285
00:19:03.559 --> 00:19:08.440
monster face ripper. So that sounds
pretty bullish to me. We didn't talk
286
00:19:08.440 --> 00:19:12.230
about with something else that was in
that note that caught my eye was regional
287
00:19:12.349 --> 00:19:17.029
banks and midcaps. Quote, that's
the best story of the internals, a
288
00:19:17.109 --> 00:19:19.990
Fart. But I'm concerned if the
MIDCAPS, you look at the MDU MDY
289
00:19:21.109 --> 00:19:23.980
and regional banks, KRI, are
above their spring high we have to be
290
00:19:25.099 --> 00:19:30.900
buying stocks in all caps and quote. So where are they now and and
291
00:19:30.140 --> 00:19:34.099
why are they so important to you? Well, you know, I think
292
00:19:34.180 --> 00:19:40.529
what gets lost a lot of times, particularly in the media, is you
293
00:19:40.609 --> 00:19:42.490
know, what's the SMP five hundred
doing? What did the Dow do today
294
00:19:42.609 --> 00:19:45.650
with the NAZAC DO? What did
the Powell say or the trump or whatever
295
00:19:45.730 --> 00:19:48.849
the gossip des Your might be.
But at the end of the day this
296
00:19:48.970 --> 00:19:53.119
is a market of stocks. There
are five hundred stocks in the SMP,
297
00:19:53.200 --> 00:19:57.279
five hundred, there are thirty.
There are three thousand stocks in the Russell.
298
00:19:57.359 --> 00:20:00.680
Three thousand, right. There's a
hundred stocks in the NAZAC, one
299
00:20:00.720 --> 00:20:03.759
hundred. It's a market of stocks. And thirty five percent of the NASDAC
300
00:20:04.440 --> 00:20:07.990
is down twenty percent, right or
right, you know, something like that.
301
00:20:08.789 --> 00:20:15.109
And a third of the NASDAC,
you know, the average NASDAC stock,
302
00:20:15.269 --> 00:20:18.710
is down like thirty something percent.
You know, even the NASDAC one
303
00:20:18.750 --> 00:20:22.700
hundred, the average stocks down almost
twenty percent. So underneath the surface you've
304
00:20:22.700 --> 00:20:26.460
seen a lot of damage and when
I if you look through as many charts
305
00:20:26.500 --> 00:20:29.420
as I do, you start noticing
a trend, you know, which is
306
00:20:29.500 --> 00:20:32.299
why I was saying how those may
highs are very important. A lot of
307
00:20:32.339 --> 00:20:34.930
stocks peaked in May. A lot
of stocks also peaked in February. So
308
00:20:36.009 --> 00:20:40.450
emerging markets peaked in February, biotech
peaked in February, the IPO index peaked
309
00:20:40.490 --> 00:20:42.769
in February. NASDAC new highs list
and, as that advanced, the client
310
00:20:42.849 --> 00:20:45.250
line all peaked in February. So
that was, you know, that was
311
00:20:45.369 --> 00:20:49.039
the peak of enthusiasm in the market. If you recall, everybody had a
312
00:20:49.079 --> 00:20:53.359
spack back then, right and right, power bollock, you know, thrust
313
00:20:53.480 --> 00:21:00.039
higher coming off of the COVID lows, which ended up being the greatest fifty
314
00:21:00.079 --> 00:21:03.079
two week period in the history of
the US stock market, or something,
315
00:21:03.359 --> 00:21:06.430
you know, depending on what stats
you used, at least in the conversation
316
00:21:06.589 --> 00:21:08.230
number one or two. The bottom
line is it was a hell of a
317
00:21:08.269 --> 00:21:14.750
run, parabolic into February, and
since then the market's been correcting. Some
318
00:21:15.069 --> 00:21:18.539
stocks have gone higher, most stocks
have not. And when you look at
319
00:21:18.579 --> 00:21:23.500
things like midcaps, midcaps have been
the leaders amongst the smiths. so the
320
00:21:23.539 --> 00:21:27.740
large caps, particularly the mega caps, have been the best relative out performers
321
00:21:27.819 --> 00:21:32.740
throughout the year. But the ones
that are not megacaps and ones that are
322
00:21:32.779 --> 00:21:36.769
not large cops, Micros, small
as and mids. The mids by far
323
00:21:36.849 --> 00:21:38.809
and away have been the strongest.
Microcaps have been the worst. So in
324
00:21:38.930 --> 00:21:42.089
my eyes, if you lose the
MIDS, which are the strongest of that
325
00:21:42.289 --> 00:21:45.809
subgroup, that's a big problem.
Right. But if the mids are strong,
326
00:21:47.400 --> 00:21:49.400
smalls and Micros can't be too far
behind it. So that's one thing.
327
00:21:49.640 --> 00:21:52.319
Number two, when you look at
regional banks, you're looking at an
328
00:21:52.359 --> 00:21:56.720
industry group that's very vulnerable to moves
in interest rates and, as I said
329
00:21:56.759 --> 00:22:00.519
earlier, you know, the bottom
market is who I trust the most.
330
00:22:00.559 --> 00:22:03.869
Right and regional banks really really follow
what's going on in rates. So if
331
00:22:03.910 --> 00:22:08.029
rates are ripping and regional, but
if regional banks are holding those former highs
332
00:22:08.630 --> 00:22:12.509
and are and the regional banks are
ripping, chances are that's not happening in
333
00:22:12.670 --> 00:22:18.740
an environment where interest rates are collapsing
in right, that's chances are that's happening
334
00:22:18.779 --> 00:22:22.299
in interest rates are rising and its
bond prices that are collapsing. And how's
335
00:22:22.299 --> 00:22:25.140
the rest of the stock market doing
in that environment? I venture to say
336
00:22:25.180 --> 00:22:29.420
pretty damn well. So midcaps and
regional banks just presented us with a not
337
00:22:29.539 --> 00:22:34.009
a situation where if we were above
those spring highs, chances are bonds are
338
00:22:34.049 --> 00:22:38.450
getting crushed, stocks are ripping and
if you don't own stocks, you are
339
00:22:38.529 --> 00:22:42.569
missing out on serious, serious alpha. Not to mention that the VIC spiked
340
00:22:42.569 --> 00:22:48.359
above thirty. So if we've learned
anything over our careers, it's that when
341
00:22:48.519 --> 00:22:52.960
the unwind of that high volatility comes
into the market, stocks tend to do
342
00:22:52.200 --> 00:22:56.680
very, very, very well.
And what people often forget is that prices
343
00:22:56.799 --> 00:23:03.190
of stocks and asset classes trend.
We know that for a fact. Market
344
00:23:03.309 --> 00:23:07.269
returns are not normally distributed on a
current learning like statistics, fast these are.
345
00:23:07.349 --> 00:23:11.309
These are not random. So if
we know for a fact that market
346
00:23:11.390 --> 00:23:14.940
prices trend, then we could take
advantage of the trend. That's why technical
347
00:23:14.940 --> 00:23:21.299
analysis works. It's volatility that mean
reverts. Volatility does not trend. Volatility
348
00:23:21.460 --> 00:23:25.099
mean reverts. So last week was
just a great opportunity to feed the ducks
349
00:23:25.299 --> 00:23:27.809
and take advantage of that high volatility, which is great because we can collect
350
00:23:27.809 --> 00:23:32.130
that premium. It's just free cash
laying on the sidewalk. But what are
351
00:23:32.170 --> 00:23:36.450
the implications for the stock market?
And you know, as we're seeing over
352
00:23:36.490 --> 00:23:40.690
the last couple of days, the
implications of an unwinded in volatility is very,
353
00:23:40.690 --> 00:23:44.480
very bullish for stocks. Now you
mentioned financials and I want to ask
354
00:23:44.519 --> 00:23:47.559
you about a couple specific financials,
and I might be putting you on the
355
00:23:47.559 --> 00:23:51.000
spot here, so I feel free
to kind of demure. But Visa and
356
00:23:51.079 --> 00:23:53.920
paypal, these are two two big
names to daynt have done very well for
357
00:23:55.039 --> 00:23:57.869
investors, both of which have gotten
pole axed and we're dropping. You know,
358
00:23:57.990 --> 00:24:03.789
well before the broader market had troubles. Now I have my own fundamental
359
00:24:03.829 --> 00:24:07.150
reasons for thinking why they're going.
I think they're beyond the curve on crypto
360
00:24:07.230 --> 00:24:10.500
adoption and they're going to see their
fees kind of like whittled away and I
361
00:24:11.539 --> 00:24:15.380
think, I think that's the kind
of the fundamental reason. Are you seeing
362
00:24:15.420 --> 00:24:19.259
anything in this charge of those two
names that that says a bottom is near?
363
00:24:21.180 --> 00:24:23.690
Um? You know, these are
massive underperformers. Right. So,
364
00:24:25.009 --> 00:24:29.609
in a similar way that I said, you know in Cryptocurrencies, if your
365
00:24:29.650 --> 00:24:33.250
cryptocurrency is not above the spring highs, you own the wrong cryptocurrencies. You
366
00:24:33.329 --> 00:24:37.569
know how I said that. Right, in the case of stocks, if
367
00:24:37.650 --> 00:24:40.960
your stocks are not above the spring
highs, you can make the same argument.
368
00:24:41.000 --> 00:24:44.680
Visa is in that. PAYPAL,
for example, is in that category
369
00:24:44.720 --> 00:24:47.799
of the February peak. You know, a lot of these right, both
370
00:24:47.920 --> 00:24:51.920
names, because really, with what
those are? They they've been crushed ever
371
00:24:52.039 --> 00:24:56.349
since. You know, Palaton and
zoom and Docu sign and all of the
372
00:24:56.430 --> 00:25:00.869
Darlings of two thousand and twenty have
really been the ones that have got hit
373
00:25:00.950 --> 00:25:06.589
the hardest so far this year.
paypal certainly in that category. You know,
374
00:25:06.710 --> 00:25:10.380
Beza, maybe not to that extent, but definitely has gotten hit hard
375
00:25:10.460 --> 00:25:14.940
after peeking in the spring. Also, like so many other things right,
376
00:25:15.059 --> 00:25:18.059
that one, Pete and rotten actually
picked in July. So it continued showing
377
00:25:18.099 --> 00:25:22.490
that relative strength and just completely collapsed. So can we get mean reversions here?
378
00:25:22.930 --> 00:25:26.490
Sure. Can you know these I
head up towards two hundred and twenty
379
00:25:26.490 --> 00:25:30.130
five. Sure you know, if
the market really rips some of these underperformers,
380
00:25:30.170 --> 00:25:33.849
you're going to get crazy good balances. You know, things like biotechnology.
381
00:25:34.089 --> 00:25:37.759
Look at biotechnology as we speak,
of five percent on the day.
382
00:25:37.039 --> 00:25:41.240
This has been the biggest piece of
garbage on earth since February of this year.
383
00:25:41.640 --> 00:25:45.559
So that the harder they fall,
the bigger they bounce right. So
384
00:25:45.039 --> 00:25:48.799
pressing shorts in those areas. Is
certainly not anything that we've wanted to do
385
00:25:48.880 --> 00:25:52.750
over the last couple of weeks.
We've been pretty clear about that. But
386
00:25:52.829 --> 00:25:56.430
in terms of buying, sure you
can get a nice mean reversion here,
387
00:25:56.670 --> 00:26:00.309
but I'd rather own strength. I'd
rather own the ones that are pushing up
388
00:26:00.309 --> 00:26:03.230
against new highs, things already working, things like home builders. Look at
389
00:26:03.269 --> 00:26:07.819
home builders, making new all time
highs. Look at Envr. Look at
390
00:26:07.859 --> 00:26:15.700
toll brothers. You know what's the
other one? Not Toll Kate, NVR
391
00:26:15.740 --> 00:26:18.099
and tour or the strongest too,
there's one more. All in our one
392
00:26:18.180 --> 00:26:19.650
another. They're all making new alltihighs. Look at Home Depot. Look at
393
00:26:19.690 --> 00:26:23.849
lows. You know these things are
actually working. Look at semiconductors. You
394
00:26:23.930 --> 00:26:26.890
know, pushing up against new all
time high. So for me, I
395
00:26:26.970 --> 00:26:32.250
don't see any advantage whatsoever and getting
cute and trying to go bottom fishing and
396
00:26:32.369 --> 00:26:34.039
buying the worst of the worst things, you know, and hoping that the
397
00:26:34.079 --> 00:26:37.200
market agrees one day. I'd rather
be in the things that the market already
398
00:26:37.240 --> 00:26:41.160
agrees are going higher. Life is
easier that way. Mean reversion life is
399
00:26:41.519 --> 00:26:47.119
it's tough living. You Know You'R
mean reversion life. is like working in
400
00:26:47.150 --> 00:26:51.150
a coal mine. You know,
trend following life is more like, you
401
00:26:51.190 --> 00:26:52.509
know, beach life, you know, hanging out, you know, hanging
402
00:26:52.589 --> 00:26:56.029
out at a surf shop on the
beach in Hawaii. That's trend following life.
403
00:26:56.589 --> 00:27:02.099
That sounds good. This, you
know, side note. So I
404
00:27:02.220 --> 00:27:04.140
do want to ask you about other
names where you see that kind of price
405
00:27:04.220 --> 00:27:07.460
action that you like here. But
just to be clear, for disclosure purposes,
406
00:27:07.819 --> 00:27:12.339
do you personally own these stocks or
these are names you recommend your institutional
407
00:27:12.460 --> 00:27:18.609
clients? Yep, our institutional clients
are retail investor clients, are financial advisors.
408
00:27:18.769 --> 00:27:21.930
You know, these are the the
people that you know that read our
409
00:27:22.009 --> 00:27:23.970
research right. Anybody, anybody who
needs to put money to work on a
410
00:27:25.009 --> 00:27:29.089
regular basis. So anything from the
largest banks and hedge funds and pension funds
411
00:27:29.089 --> 00:27:32.599
and family offices on earth. You
know, market wizards who you know?
412
00:27:32.680 --> 00:27:37.240
All household names that we can't mention, obviously publicly, but you know them.
413
00:27:37.279 --> 00:27:38.319
All the banks. That are clients, for sure, but then a
414
00:27:38.400 --> 00:27:42.240
lot of individual investors, you know
it. Retired engineers, you know doctors.
415
00:27:42.799 --> 00:27:45.750
You know, I talked software owners. I mean I talked to all
416
00:27:45.829 --> 00:27:51.430
kinds of people with all sorts of
different objectives. One thing I've learned over
417
00:27:51.470 --> 00:27:52.869
the years is that all of their
objectives are different than mine. Like,
418
00:27:52.990 --> 00:27:56.789
for example, all right, percent
of Mike, maybe not a hundred percent,
419
00:27:56.910 --> 00:27:59.779
but almost a hundred percent, let's
call it, eighty or ninety percent
420
00:27:59.779 --> 00:28:03.059
of my entire portfolios and cryptocurrencies.
I'm not recommending that a financial advisor to
421
00:28:03.140 --> 00:28:07.539
do that for grandma, you know. I'm not recommending that a hedge fund
422
00:28:07.539 --> 00:28:10.339
who it doesn't even trade Cryptos,
do that. So I think it's really
423
00:28:10.380 --> 00:28:15.569
important to remember that everybody, every
investor, has completely different objectives than one
424
00:28:15.609 --> 00:28:18.890
another and just because I'm buying something
doesn't mean you should. And just because
425
00:28:18.930 --> 00:28:23.210
I'm not up buying something doesn't mean
you shouldn't. Right. And you know
426
00:28:23.250 --> 00:28:26.319
get I encourage all of our listeners
to check out all star charts. I
427
00:28:26.400 --> 00:28:32.920
get your your email newsletters, and
it's always interesting and he recently posted something.
428
00:28:32.960 --> 00:28:36.519
You talked about the Holy Trinity of
trading. Three questions need to be
429
00:28:36.599 --> 00:28:38.839
answered. What are your objective as
an investor? What's your time horizon?
430
00:28:40.000 --> 00:28:44.029
What is your risk tolerance? And
you know, when you figure those out
431
00:28:44.029 --> 00:28:48.269
then you could invest accordingly. But
you kind of knocked me over. The
432
00:28:48.430 --> 00:28:52.269
eighty to nine percent of your personal
portfolio is in crypto right now. Is
433
00:28:52.349 --> 00:28:56.099
that what I heard? I hear
that correctly? Yeah, probably more,
434
00:28:56.380 --> 00:29:00.380
you know. I mean listen,
we have we have money set aside as
435
00:29:00.420 --> 00:29:03.140
my family, you know, for
other things and real estate and stuff like
436
00:29:03.180 --> 00:29:06.339
that. But like, I own
real estate inside of de Central Land.
437
00:29:06.579 --> 00:29:10.809
I own, you know, I
have a helium mining operation with twenty five
438
00:29:10.890 --> 00:29:14.089
helium miners. You know, I
got some other stuff going on, but
439
00:29:14.130 --> 00:29:18.609
I'm pretty deep down the crypto rabbit
hole. You know, I'm a big
440
00:29:18.690 --> 00:29:22.730
boy, I know I know what
the risks are. I also am experienced
441
00:29:22.809 --> 00:29:29.319
a managing risk responsibly, you know. So I can do those things and
442
00:29:29.359 --> 00:29:32.000
I could change my mind tonight.
You know, maybe I have a right
443
00:29:32.400 --> 00:29:36.400
to have chicken parm that doesn't sit
well and I press a button and you
444
00:29:36.480 --> 00:29:38.230
know, I got out of everything
I've I did that a few weeks ago,
445
00:29:38.349 --> 00:29:41.470
right, for example. So things
can change at anytime, but that's
446
00:29:41.789 --> 00:29:45.829
right now as we speak. Yeah, I'm in and it's it. The
447
00:29:45.869 --> 00:29:49.390
names you mentioned earlier, Luna and
sand box and Salana, thing like that.
448
00:29:49.829 --> 00:29:52.660
Yep, that's exactly right. I
mean I own some theorium to pay
449
00:29:52.740 --> 00:29:56.460
for gas fees, what I need
to. So it's not so much an
450
00:29:56.500 --> 00:30:00.579
investment and etherium as it is a
utility. But I do have some etherium.
451
00:30:00.579 --> 00:30:03.180
I've got a little bit of Bitcoin. For some of the reasons you
452
00:30:03.299 --> 00:30:07.849
know, I don't really own Fiat
because the coin tracker that I use,
453
00:30:07.930 --> 00:30:11.130
which is like the quick books of
Crypto, doesn't recognize Fiat. So any
454
00:30:11.210 --> 00:30:15.049
Fiat that I do have is in
stables, stable coins, so that my
455
00:30:15.369 --> 00:30:19.890
coin tracker can track them. So
yeah, I mean I have. In
456
00:30:19.970 --> 00:30:22.400
fact, not only do I not
have any need for Fi od, it's
457
00:30:22.400 --> 00:30:29.400
actually annoying. So I literally have
to transfer it to stable coins. Well,
458
00:30:29.480 --> 00:30:32.680
I don't even know where to where
to go from there, but you
459
00:30:32.799 --> 00:30:37.549
asked, so I did. Yes, yes, but I'm going to I'm
460
00:30:37.549 --> 00:30:38.670
going to go, I'm going to
go. I'm so shocked I'm just going
461
00:30:38.710 --> 00:30:44.589
to go totally off topic to another
sector that's a super big important store listeners
462
00:30:44.589 --> 00:30:47.670
is. That's the energy sector.
Speaking of relative strength, it's been.
463
00:30:47.789 --> 00:30:52.140
It's been one of the stronger performers
all year and I noticed that the XCELA,
464
00:30:52.500 --> 00:30:56.180
even as oil really crash from from
the mid s to the mid s.
465
00:30:56.259 --> 00:31:00.500
The XCELLE really didn't go down that
much and fairly close to it to
466
00:31:00.579 --> 00:31:04.650
it's year to date high. Is
that the kind of relative strength you need?
467
00:31:04.730 --> 00:31:07.609
That with don't tell you you know, maybe xcelli is is going to
468
00:31:07.730 --> 00:31:11.210
head higher here. Kudos to you. You absolutely nailed that. You know,
469
00:31:11.289 --> 00:31:18.049
one of the things that we have
really been harping on, particularly internally,
470
00:31:18.250 --> 00:31:22.480
is the resilion and see of oil
and gas stocks, despite oil getting
471
00:31:22.559 --> 00:31:26.039
crushed, in fact, not last
week but the week before, when oil
472
00:31:26.240 --> 00:31:33.269
was down double digits for the week, both the Xcel and the xop were
473
00:31:33.390 --> 00:31:37.950
positive for the week. So as
I'm doing my Saturday morning charting, I'm
474
00:31:37.029 --> 00:31:40.990
like, I'm like, you know, slacking with straps. I'm like,
475
00:31:40.990 --> 00:31:42.829
Yo, did you see that Xop
was positive on the week? And he's
476
00:31:42.829 --> 00:31:45.509
like yeah, so is Xli.
I'm like, Oh my God. You
477
00:31:45.589 --> 00:31:48.140
know, wouldn't you know? When
the market, when you think the market
478
00:31:48.220 --> 00:31:52.339
should be doing something and it does
something else, that's when you pay attention,
479
00:31:53.380 --> 00:31:56.180
you know, when it when it
does something that surprises yours. Like
480
00:31:56.500 --> 00:32:00.700
man, he's oil and gas stocks
should have gotten crushed, with oil getting
481
00:32:00.700 --> 00:32:01.930
crushed, but they didn't, like
you know, so the fact that you
482
00:32:02.009 --> 00:32:05.329
just brought that up, I think
you nailed the head nail right on the
483
00:32:05.450 --> 00:32:07.289
head. Couldn't agree more. Chevron, as we speak, is making new
484
00:32:07.329 --> 00:32:10.730
fifty two week kihs. So what
I would encourage everybody in the same way
485
00:32:10.769 --> 00:32:15.450
that I mentioned. If you own
cryptocurrencies that are not above their first half
486
00:32:15.450 --> 00:32:19.680
highs, you own the wrong cryptocurrencies. In the stock market, look at
487
00:32:19.720 --> 00:32:23.799
a fourteen day RSI. The RSI
is a relative strength index. It is
488
00:32:23.839 --> 00:32:29.400
a momentum oscillator that goes from zero
to a hundred, thirty being oversold,
489
00:32:29.440 --> 00:32:32.549
traditionally eighty being over bought, and
I would encourage you to look at the
490
00:32:32.710 --> 00:32:38.109
fourteen day RSIZE for the stocks in
your portfolio or the stocks that you're looking
491
00:32:38.150 --> 00:32:43.910
to buy, because if you are
seeing oversold conditions below thirty in Ursi,
492
00:32:44.380 --> 00:32:47.220
in stocks that you think go higher, you probably own the wrong stocks.
493
00:32:47.619 --> 00:32:53.259
We want to be only buying stocks
that momentum did not get over sold on
494
00:32:53.460 --> 00:32:58.730
any of these corrections over the last
few months but have held in their oil
495
00:32:58.769 --> 00:33:01.130
and gas being right at the top
of that list. It's Intrigana and I
496
00:33:01.210 --> 00:33:06.930
really pleased appreciate the specificity of that
advice, but so you also said earlier
497
00:33:06.970 --> 00:33:09.529
than a lot of the names that
have fallen hard. We talking about paypal
498
00:33:09.769 --> 00:33:13.759
and some of the other darlings of
two thousand and twenty, as you put
499
00:33:13.759 --> 00:33:17.480
it, are probably going to have
a big bounce here. So if I'm
500
00:33:17.559 --> 00:33:22.640
looking to my portfolio and I see
stocks with with low working day RSIDE,
501
00:33:22.839 --> 00:33:28.150
you say I sell them today or
you know, and obviously everybody's different,
502
00:33:29.109 --> 00:33:32.589
but you know what's the general advice
there? Yeah, we when I listen,
503
00:33:32.630 --> 00:33:36.470
I would never tell anybody to buy
or sell. When this question always
504
00:33:36.549 --> 00:33:38.430
comes up and I get it.
I've been getting it for twenty years.
505
00:33:38.430 --> 00:33:43.339
JAYC I bought this stock and then
it fell and now I'm down. I
506
00:33:43.380 --> 00:33:45.019
don't know whether to salad or do
I wait for it to break even.
507
00:33:45.180 --> 00:33:47.500
Right. I'm you. If I
had a nickel for every if I had
508
00:33:47.539 --> 00:33:51.740
a big point for every time I
got to ask that question, and here's
509
00:33:51.740 --> 00:33:52.819
my answer. This is the best
answer that you're ever going to get.
510
00:33:52.859 --> 00:33:57.970
Here's the answer. As long as
your investment is a liquid like we're talking
511
00:33:57.970 --> 00:34:00.289
about a stock or Crypto or futures
contract or whatever it is, it's liquid.
512
00:34:00.690 --> 00:34:02.769
SAYS LIQUID IS CASH. You could
just press a button and be out
513
00:34:02.769 --> 00:34:06.130
and says liquid is cash. So
the question you want to ask yourself is,
514
00:34:06.569 --> 00:34:08.449
if you woke up this morning and
all of your money was sitting in
515
00:34:08.610 --> 00:34:13.599
cash and you could make any trade
you want, any investment you want,
516
00:34:14.519 --> 00:34:16.880
would you use that money to buy
this particular stock that you're asking me about?
517
00:34:17.800 --> 00:34:22.760
If your answer is not a resounding
yes, then there's your answer.
518
00:34:22.800 --> 00:34:25.789
Right, there's no reason to be
in it. Right, you have to
519
00:34:25.829 --> 00:34:30.469
be like yes, absolutely, I
would flip the book long this particular name
520
00:34:30.510 --> 00:34:31.909
if all my money was in cash. Okay, great, then that's your
521
00:34:31.909 --> 00:34:36.030
answer. If your answer was like, I should probably in that one,
522
00:34:36.309 --> 00:34:38.460
I should probably own this instead,
well, then there's your answer. That's
523
00:34:38.500 --> 00:34:40.860
the question you want to ask yourself. If I was a hundred percent in
524
00:34:40.900 --> 00:34:45.420
cash this morning and I could buy
anything I want, is this the stock
525
00:34:45.500 --> 00:34:47.340
that I would buy? If your
answer is no, and there's you know
526
00:34:47.380 --> 00:34:51.900
what to do. Fair enough,
and I'm so I'm going to go check
527
00:34:51.980 --> 00:34:53.849
my portfolio after work. We finished
her, but before we'll let you go.
528
00:34:54.050 --> 00:34:57.769
I do you want to ask me? You mentioned some of the home
529
00:34:57.809 --> 00:35:00.369
builders you like. You mentioned some
of the energy names. Are there other
530
00:35:01.050 --> 00:35:04.090
and I'm sure there are many,
but can you give us a name or
531
00:35:04.130 --> 00:35:07.010
two of other names that look really
good to you right here, if I
532
00:35:07.519 --> 00:35:09.239
for those of us who do have
cash that they want to put to work?
533
00:35:09.280 --> 00:35:14.800
Yeah, I like shaneer energy.
Talk about I mean this, you
534
00:35:14.880 --> 00:35:16.760
know, check my math, but
this might be the strongest oil and gas
535
00:35:16.880 --> 00:35:21.909
name of all of them, you
know, particularly at that market capital level.
536
00:35:22.150 --> 00:35:24.269
Chevron's making new fit the two weeks, so there's definitely some strength there.
537
00:35:24.510 --> 00:35:30.590
The XOP, which is the oil
and gas explorers and producers. That's
538
00:35:30.590 --> 00:35:34.309
where the leadership is, you know, it's certainly not in the oil services
539
00:35:34.469 --> 00:35:37.900
at all. If AXELP's above ninety
two, I think just stayed along that
540
00:35:38.099 --> 00:35:43.940
entire group. We talked about the
homies. We talked about Home Depot when
541
00:35:44.019 --> 00:35:46.059
lows right, which are kind of
like in that spread category with the homies
542
00:35:46.099 --> 00:35:52.090
right. So you can would really
group those in. And I mean semiconductors.
543
00:35:52.769 --> 00:35:55.449
You know, look at look at
names like in Vidia, look at
544
00:35:55.489 --> 00:36:00.530
advanced micro amd, which is an
old school name are and I'm sure you're
545
00:36:00.530 --> 00:36:02.610
very familiar with over the years.
You know, listen and Vidia is the
546
00:36:02.650 --> 00:36:06.800
biggest and the baddest. If in
videos above three hundred and twenty, which
547
00:36:06.800 --> 00:36:09.039
is flirting with those levels as we
speak, and videos above three hundred and
548
00:36:09.079 --> 00:36:13.280
twenty. I mean you can even
drop that down to three hundred from videos
549
00:36:13.280 --> 00:36:16.719
above three hundred. You know,
all in, let's go three hundred and
550
00:36:16.719 --> 00:36:21.550
twenty. Had be adding to positions, adding to more, adding more above
551
00:36:21.630 --> 00:36:23.190
three hundred and thirty, but certainly
above three hundred. I think you could
552
00:36:23.190 --> 00:36:27.110
be long. I think this has
four hundred fifty written all over it,
553
00:36:27.630 --> 00:36:30.309
but your risk management levels about three
hundred. That's the that's that last line
554
00:36:30.309 --> 00:36:35.099
in the sand to fill that gap. But you know we don't like averaging
555
00:36:35.179 --> 00:36:37.019
down right. Only you know,
as we learn from Paul Tutor Jones,
556
00:36:37.659 --> 00:36:44.420
only losers average down losers right the
ideas by more of the ones working right.
557
00:36:44.460 --> 00:36:47.210
You don't want to cut your flowers
and flower and water your weeds right,
558
00:36:47.289 --> 00:36:50.449
cut your flowers and water your weeds, or whatever. You know,
559
00:36:50.489 --> 00:36:52.010
you want to do the opposite,
cut the weeds and water the flowers.
560
00:36:53.050 --> 00:36:55.610
All right. Well, it's been
great having you on again, JAC.
561
00:36:55.929 --> 00:36:59.929
Thanks very much for being with us
today. Any time, Aaron. You
562
00:37:00.010 --> 00:37:02.159
know what I find me. Thanks, JAC. After my after my energy
563
00:37:02.199 --> 00:37:06.079
call and going to head over to
the charts and champagne room and joining you
564
00:37:06.159 --> 00:37:13.760
guys with all right, all right, I love it, all right,
565
00:37:13.840 --> 00:37:15.750
talk to you later, see you
guys all right, really appreciate it.
566
00:37:15.909 -->
Thanks.
